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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Just about that.

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Speaker 3: Action all.

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Speaker 1: Right, here we go throwing spect We're saying.

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Speaker 4: It's a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 1: All we see most gambles when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 1: they go to win.

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Speaker 4: That's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right, this is the ultimate combine you want to

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Speaker 4: and we are under way.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm Jill Glant. I'm

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Speaker 1: joined by Brandon Anderson and Evan Abrams.

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Speaker 4: We are back.

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Speaker 1: We're part two of the NFL Exotic Show. This is

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Speaker 1: the futures markets where they're a little more niche really

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Speaker 1: deep diving here. Now, if you missed part one, you

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Speaker 1: can check the Action Network podcast feed, it'll be right

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Speaker 1: there for you. On today's show, we're going to continue

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Speaker 1: to cover some more of those wild NFL futures markets.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna be looking at stuff like most interceptions, first

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Speaker 1: coach fired, most touchdowns after four games. Before we get

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Speaker 1: going though, again, just a couple of important notes. First

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Speaker 1: one being is that all these bets for the most part,

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Speaker 1: are not large stakes. These You're gonna hear a lot

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Speaker 1: of big odds like fifty to one, forty to one,

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Speaker 1: a lot of that stuff. You should just sprinkle kind

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Speaker 1: of more pizza bets, like five dollars ten dollars inconsequential

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Speaker 1: money to make some good maybe consequential good ROI and return.

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Speaker 1: And also as we go we'll mention the sportsbook that

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Speaker 1: we have found that at so you could be able

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Speaker 1: to find it a little bit easier. So let's start

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Speaker 1: with some division bets. Now, this isn't your typical just like, oh,

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Speaker 1: I'm going to take the last team to win, Like

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Speaker 1: a lot of these are some really big long shots. Now, Brandon,

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Speaker 1: I know that you do have one of those kind

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Speaker 1: of prototypical ones, and you've got four or five of them,

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Speaker 1: So why don't you get started with us? Yeah, so's

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Speaker 1: start out with Bear's Island of course plus five point

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Speaker 1: fifty Ben Johnson's Bears. Let's start with Ben this time.

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Speaker 1: You can listen to all the Bearers Love on other podcasts.

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Speaker 4: You can hear the case. We did the whole worst

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Speaker 4: of first episode if you want to hear the case there.

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Speaker 4: So they're the first one, and I'm coming around on

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Speaker 4: Patriots Islands, so stay tuned. I might be there. Here's

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Speaker 4: the Patriots bet Patriots exact outcome first in the division Bills. Second,

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Speaker 4: that's what I like at Caesars at plus seven to

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Speaker 4: fifty because the reason I got there a little more

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Speaker 4: on the Patriots, we talked in the first episode why

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Speaker 4: I'm in on them. They were in in a couple

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Speaker 4: of bets from me, floor raising everywhere. The offensive line

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Speaker 4: is better, the defense that added a bunch of guys

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Speaker 4: Carlton Davis, Roberts, Fulane, They added rookies up and down

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Speaker 4: the roster that are gonna make a difference, Mike Vrabel

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Speaker 4: and the floor raising there. But what I didn't realize

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Speaker 4: is how much down I'd be on the Bills as

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Speaker 4: we got to the season. I'm not out on the

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Speaker 4: Bills because it's Josh Allen, but I ended up with

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Speaker 4: my win projections under a win difference between the Bills

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Speaker 4: and the Patriots. So I do have Buffalo favored, but

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Speaker 4: I don't have them favored this heavily, and I have

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Speaker 4: those teams clearly ahead of you know, we talked in

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Speaker 4: the last episode why we're out on the Dolphins and

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Speaker 4: all their mix of you know what's happening, and why

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Speaker 4: the Jets may not be very good because you know,

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Speaker 4: good to have a quarterback in the league, So Patriots

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Speaker 4: and Bills. If Drake May plays well, I think the

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Speaker 4: Patriots can be right there with the soft schedule, with

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Speaker 4: a bit of regression maybe on a Bill's roster that

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Speaker 4: I don't think this is the best roster they've had

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Speaker 4: with Josh Allen. And if those teams are close, they

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Speaker 4: get the game in New England later in the year,

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Speaker 4: so that sets up well for the Patriots. And I

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Speaker 4: just think these two pull away and it end up

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Speaker 4: becomes like just a division ticket for the Patriots at

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Speaker 4: plus seven to fifty. So that's my favorite long shot.

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Speaker 4: And then here's a way to create a long shot

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Speaker 4: out of three favorites. My three favorite division bets are

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Speaker 4: the Texans, the Eagles, and the Chiefs. Okay, those are boring,

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Speaker 4: so boring. I don't even tell you why they're my

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Speaker 4: favorite picks. They're all close to even odds. I don't

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Speaker 4: think they should be close to even odds. I'm down

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Speaker 4: on Denver and the Chargers, so that makes me feel

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Speaker 4: much better about the Chiefs than I expected. I don't

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Speaker 4: love the options in the NFC East. We talked about

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Speaker 4: why I'm out in the Commanders last time, so that

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Speaker 4: makes the Eagles look pretty good, and I've given you

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Speaker 4: lots of Texans love. I like all three of those standalone,

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Speaker 4: at like minus one hundred one point thirty something like that,

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Speaker 4: those all are bad prices. I have these teams anywhere

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Speaker 4: from seventy to eighty five percent to win their division,

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Speaker 4: which is a huge number. So I'm gonna parlay all

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Speaker 4: three together, Texans Eagles, Chiefs give me the division. Parlay

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Speaker 4: at FanDuel plus six thirty three by those odds, that

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Speaker 4: should be a fourteen percent hit rate by my odds

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Speaker 4: of the division. This is better than a coin flip

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Speaker 4: to hit. So I'm gonna take just three favorites that

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Speaker 4: I believe in and stack the divisions together, or if

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Speaker 4: you want to, you know, take your long shot, like

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Speaker 4: you could take the Patriots and add them to these three,

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Speaker 4: and now you get like a thirty to one there,

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Speaker 4: So you could, you know, be creative with these. You know,

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Speaker 4: good for count health too, if we're being honest, to

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Speaker 4: put some of these parlays together. So those are three.

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Speaker 4: I've got a couple other little ones, but any thoughts

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Speaker 4: on those threes show I mean.

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Speaker 1: And they're all division winners from the year before and

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Speaker 1: The fact that you said that there was close to

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Speaker 1: even money, or that you have it closer to a

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Speaker 1: coin flip is insane because by that logic then it

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Speaker 1: should be around plus one ten for all three to win.

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Speaker 1: Right So the fact that you're getting at plus six

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Speaker 1: thirty three, yeah at Fandel great spot here. You know,

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Speaker 1: I'm already in on Bears Island, so I'm not really

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Speaker 1: going to elaborate too much. It's the Patriots one that

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Speaker 1: I'm still just like. It just doesn't feel great, but

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Speaker 1: at the same time, you gotta take a risk to

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Speaker 1: get there.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to do the NFC East.

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Speaker 1: Division exactly here and right now because I do like

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Speaker 1: the Eagles to win that division. But right now the

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Speaker 1: favorite for that is for Philly to go first, Washington,

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Speaker 1: Fish second, Dallas third, Giants fourth.

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Speaker 2: I think we should swap.

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Speaker 1: Dallas and Washington in this spot. And right now it's

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Speaker 1: at plus five point fifty to have Philly, Dallas, Washington

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Speaker 1: and the Giants as the order in that division. So

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Speaker 1: the Eagles, I still think they're the most balanced roster

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Speaker 1: in the nf I think they could finish thirteen and

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Speaker 1: four and win that division pretty heavily, even though the

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Speaker 1: opening schedule, at least the opening five games are kind

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Speaker 1: of tough. The Cowboys, again, this is more of a

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Speaker 1: bet more that Micah Parsons will be back, even if

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Speaker 1: it might not be totally backed.

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Speaker 2: By Week one.

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Speaker 1: I think they'll still finish second in that division, especially

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Speaker 1: considering that in every season when Dak Prescott has been healthy,

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Speaker 1: they've won at least eight games, So I think there's

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Speaker 1: more of a higher floor for them.

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Speaker 2: And then the Commanders.

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Speaker 1: Again, I think a lot of the time people just

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Speaker 1: kind of forget about how that final six to seven

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Speaker 1: games went last year, where they basically played a backup

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Speaker 1: quarterback in every game, and then the two playoff games

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Speaker 1: they're playing against two teams with just decimated defenses. I

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Speaker 1: think they had a lot of luck on their side.

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Speaker 1: I don't think the luck is going to be on

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Speaker 1: their side this year. I think they'll regress. So I

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Speaker 1: have them finishing third in the conference or third in

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Speaker 1: the division rather and then the Giants. I don't think

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Speaker 1: we have to go too deep into that. I think

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Speaker 1: they have the hardest schedule in the NFL based on

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Speaker 1: strength of schedule, so I still have them finishing fourth

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Speaker 1: in that division.

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Speaker 2: So those would be my.

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Speaker 1: Four from an NFC East Division exact to Evan before

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Speaker 1: we start with how you're approaching the division, Brandon is there,

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Speaker 1: Do you have any more long shots from a division standpoint,

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Speaker 1: because I want to hear what Evan's got here, because

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Speaker 1: I really am intrigued.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, just two other little ones here that I kind

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Speaker 4: of alluded to why I'm gonna like them. So Texans,

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Speaker 4: you can bet at ESPN to go six and zero

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Speaker 4: in the division thirteen to one odds. This is just

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Speaker 4: a bet on the Texans and a bet against the

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Speaker 4: other three teams in the division. We talked a lot

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Speaker 4: about why the AFC South and NFC South are so bad.

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Speaker 4: What ended up happening for me is I agree on

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Speaker 4: seven of those teams being bad, but I ended up

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Speaker 4: really liking the Texans and the floor there. And I

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Speaker 4: bet this last year with the Chiefs six and o

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Speaker 4: in the division, and even with the Chiefs other teams

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Speaker 4: in division making the playoffs, two of them, it's still

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Speaker 4: were five and oh until they had a Week eighteen

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Speaker 4: game against Denver and I lost because they played all

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Speaker 4: the backup. So I looked Houston does play a division

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Speaker 4: game in Week eighteen, but they're home against the Colts.

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Speaker 4: The Colts at that point probably are just out of

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Speaker 4: the mix and tanking for a better quarterback pick for

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Speaker 4: next year, preferred to lose. I think the Texans are

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Speaker 4: in the mix for seeding and maybe even a one seed.

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Speaker 4: So I like the Texans six and on the division

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Speaker 4: of thirteen to one. We'll have options on that last

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Speaker 4: game if we need to. And then real niche here.

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Speaker 4: I like the Raiders and I was trying to figure

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Speaker 4: out how do I bet on I think this is

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Speaker 4: a better team this year. I like Pete Carroll, I

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Speaker 4: like Gino Smith. No, no Gino slander coming from me.

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Speaker 4: The upgrade from last year's coach and quarterback to this

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Speaker 4: year is just a huge floor raising. But it's still

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Speaker 4: the Chiefs Division, and I can't Goite get there in

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Speaker 4: the playoffs because I think they're one of the worst

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Speaker 4: defenses in the league. So I've been trying to figure out,

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Speaker 4: how do I bet the Raiders to improve but not

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Speaker 4: that much? And I think it's this second place in

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Speaker 4: the division plus seven to fifty at DraftKings. I don't

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Speaker 4: love the Broncos this year. I don't believe in the offense.

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Speaker 4: I think the defense is going to be worse, not better.

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Speaker 4: And I really don't like the Chargers after the Slater injury.

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Speaker 4: So this is conceding the Chiefs, really, but saying, okay,

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Speaker 4: can you win the non Chiefs division? Can you get

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Speaker 4: second place? Plus seven to fifty? I think they're in

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Speaker 4: the mix. I actually have them projected last in the division,

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Speaker 4: but I have those last three teams within a win

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Speaker 4: of each other. So plus seven to fifty makes us

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Speaker 4: worth the play.

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Speaker 2: Okay.

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Speaker 1: So Brand and I the way that we approached our

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Speaker 1: division bets, we were looking more at like which team

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Speaker 1: could win the division or which team how the division

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Speaker 1: will unfold. Evn took a little bit of a different approach,

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Speaker 1: and I'm kind of excited about how he went about this. Evan,

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Speaker 1: tell me what kind of bets you were looking for

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Speaker 1: that were divisional bets.

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Speaker 3: First, let me just give one remark. I like the

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Speaker 3: Patriots Bills one two finished. The way I did it

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Speaker 3: is I exacted the boxed it. So I did New

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Speaker 3: England Buffalo in one bet and Buffalo and New England

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Speaker 3: in another bet. So I think there's value there. And

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Speaker 3: my one question for Brandon is I kind of like

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Speaker 3: the idea of the Raiders in the two. I wonder

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Speaker 3: what KC Raiders one two, If that's maybe a higher price,

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Speaker 3: there might be way I would look at it. But

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Speaker 3: to answer your questions, you the way I looked at

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Speaker 3: this division was I took some interception bets. I actually

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Speaker 3: did a little bit of projections and took a few

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Speaker 3: different categories into into a little model I did to

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Speaker 3: try to look at every quarterback and what I thought

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Speaker 3: they'd throw from an interception standpoint. I found three bets,

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Speaker 3: really four bets, but three bets plus money hoping to

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Speaker 3: hit two of them. So more Geno Smith slander. I apologize, Brandon,

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Speaker 3: but I do think leading the division in interceptions in

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Speaker 3: the AFC West at about plus one twenty plus one

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Speaker 3: thirty mahomes Bo Nicks justin Herbert, I think Gino most

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Speaker 3: likely might be closer to even in my eyes. So

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Speaker 3: I like the Gino Smith bet Sam Donald in the

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Speaker 3: NFC West also about that plus one twenty plus one

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Speaker 3: thirty range. This is assuming Stafford is in. But if

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Speaker 3: Stafford comes in and out, it helps the bet even

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Speaker 3: more because you're gonna have interceptions kind of spread across

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Speaker 3: and then Kyler and Brock different reasons. I think Donald

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Speaker 3: is a bet bet there, and then AFC South. I

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Speaker 3: think there's probably two bets to make here. The bet

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Speaker 3: I really like is Trevor Trevor Lawrence at about plus

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Speaker 3: one fifty plus one fifty five range, and then I

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Speaker 3: think a small, small bet would be on CJ. Stroud.

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Speaker 3: He talked about it earlier. I see some issues with

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Speaker 3: the offensive line. It could force him to kind of

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Speaker 3: throw some balls he doesn't want to. He's not necessarily

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Speaker 3: a big interception guy. But I think they're laying a

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Speaker 3: little bit too much on cam Ward. I think he's

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Speaker 3: even minus Hodds in this category. I think there's a

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Speaker 3: chance he's better than we think, and he's better at

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Speaker 3: controlling the ball and not giving it away, So I

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Speaker 3: think there might be an opportunity in that division. But Jill,

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Speaker 3: you're the interception head honcho, so what do you think

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Speaker 3: about those?

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Speaker 1: I think out of the three, Gino stands out like

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Speaker 1: a sore thumb for me, And you know, fifteen interceptions

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Speaker 1: last year going to an offense that is going to

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Speaker 1: probably encourage him to want to throw it even more.

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Speaker 1: Because I'm not really high on Ashton gen t And

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Speaker 1: then another thing too, when you look at the interceptions

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Speaker 1: that Gino had last year. A lot of interceptions last

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Speaker 1: year came when they were under pressure, and you're now

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Speaker 1: in a division with three teams that were top ten

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Speaker 1: in pressure rate per snap, like between the Chargers, Chiefs

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Speaker 1: and the Broncos. So I think there's just a higher

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Speaker 1: upside for him to throw more interceptions and say Trevor

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Speaker 1: Lawrence or Sam Darnold, but I can't really, you know,

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Speaker 1: demerit any of those picks. I think just of the three,

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Speaker 1: Gino is probably the one that intrigues me the most,

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Speaker 1: especially at that price. All right, before we move to

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Speaker 1: first coach fire Brandon, I see you rolling your eyes.

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Speaker 1: Is there anything that you want to say about Geno

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Speaker 1: Smith before we move on?

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Speaker 4: I mean, you know, I think we're underrating Gino. I

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Speaker 4: actually would be intrigued by Patrick Mahomes most interceptions in

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Speaker 4: that division that we'll get to most interceptions in the

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Speaker 4: league in a second. It's a fun market because you

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Speaker 4: have to be bad enough to throw interceptions, but not

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Speaker 4: so bad that you get benched, and that's what makes

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Speaker 4: an interesting. So I think, you know, can be in

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Speaker 4: play and still have the Raiders finished second in the

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Speaker 4: division at a lot of books. By the way, Evan,

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Speaker 4: you can bet just you can bet, I forget what

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Speaker 4: it's called. You can bet like Bill's Patriots top two

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Speaker 4: in the division and you have to both bats and

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Speaker 4: I think that's like minus one oh five. I like

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Speaker 4: that as well. It's just like, Okay, no Dolphins, no Jets,

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Speaker 4: just give me the top two. Last year on this podcast,

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Speaker 4: I gave out Eagles Cowboys top two in the East.

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Speaker 4: I said it was free money. It was not, so,

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Speaker 4: you know, be careful with these, but I think that's

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Speaker 4: the way you can bet those division odds as well.

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Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, it's sports betting. I think if anything has

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Speaker 1: taught us, there is no such thing as free money

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Speaker 1: or infinite money glitches, as much as we want to believe.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's move to a very fun category this one.

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Speaker 1: I feel like the discussion is going to be fun

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Speaker 1: because for me, this is almost like a vibes bet

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Speaker 1: more so than just data and tangible data or box

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Speaker 1: score stuff that we would look at. And it's first

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Speaker 1: coach fire and right now, this is something that is

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Speaker 1: more available on offshore sportsbooks if you were looking for it.

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Speaker 1: You could just google it. You'll find it pretty quickly. Brandon,

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Speaker 1: I have a bet that I like Evan. You have

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Speaker 1: a bet that you like Brandon. Want you start us off?

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Speaker 1: Who do you like as the first coach fire?

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Speaker 4: Can you because this market is not as familiar, Joe,

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Speaker 4: can you give us from the Canadian outposts? Can you

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Speaker 4: give us like the top five, six, seven favorites and odds?

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Speaker 4: Just so we're kind of familiar who we're looking at here?

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Speaker 2: Sure?

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Speaker 1: So at the top I mentioned it earlier in part one,

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Speaker 1: Mike McDaniel. McDaniel's is the first favorite at plus two hundred,

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Speaker 1: file by Brian Davile at four to one. Then you've

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Speaker 1: got Dave Canalis with the Panthers at seven to one,

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Speaker 1: and yeah, like it's pretty much like those guys at

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Speaker 1: the bottom of the bottom of the ranks. Kevin Stefanski

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Speaker 1: with the Browns as well, he's around eight to one

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Speaker 1: as well. So that's kind of where it is. But honestly,

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Speaker 1: there's only one guy that I like out of those five.

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Speaker 1: But I'll talk about in a second. You tell me.

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Speaker 2: Who you like to be the first coach fighter.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, so I looked a little longer here. I think

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Speaker 4: it makes sense. You know, the favorites here quote unquote,

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Speaker 4: do you really want to be a favorite here? I

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Speaker 4: don't know that it makes sense. They seem like the

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Speaker 4: right guys. We talked about the vibes in Miami. We

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Speaker 4: talked about why the Browns, the Saints, the Giants all

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Speaker 4: look bad. I can't get excited about on the obvious

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Speaker 4: picks here, so I want to kind of think, Okay,

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Speaker 4: outside the box, what else could go wrong here? What

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Speaker 4: are the vibes? So one pick one long shot Brian

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Speaker 4: Callahan of the Titans eighteen to one, So second year coach,

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Speaker 4: probably that would feel like a pretty short leash. But

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Speaker 4: second year coach with a first year quarterback. And it's

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Speaker 4: a second year coach that went two and fifteen against

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Speaker 4: the spread last year, And I'm sure his bosses don't

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Speaker 4: care about his ats record. However, they probably care that

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Speaker 4: he's repeatedly underperforming expectations week after week after week. That

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Speaker 4: actually is a real data point that the team we

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Speaker 4: keep lowering the bar and he still can't clear them.

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Speaker 4: So if they come out and honestly, I think the

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Speaker 4: Titans aren't improved team this year, I think special teams

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Speaker 4: will be better. I think their offensive line will be

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Speaker 4: better because of Brian's dad built and the work that

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Speaker 4: they're doing there. But started the season in Denver with

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Speaker 4: the rookie quarterback. That could turn very ugly if Denver's

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Speaker 4: defense is what people think. And then it's Rams, Colts,

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Speaker 4: Texans Cars. It's a pretty tough opening schedule. It's a

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Speaker 4: very easy path to one to five against a lot

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Speaker 4: of very attacking defenses, and you've got a rookie quarterback.

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Speaker 4: I've never been a Callahan guy, never really elevated the

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Speaker 4: Bengals offense. I thought it's notable that they got better

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Speaker 4: after he left last year and did a lot more

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Speaker 4: motion and creativity. So if you're the Titans and you

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Speaker 4: start real bad zero to five or one and four,

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Speaker 4: and you're like, man, this is not going well with

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Speaker 4: Brian Callahan and this is not who I want taken

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Speaker 4: care of my My franchise is not Brian Callan. My

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Speaker 4: franchise is cam Ward. That's the direction we are going,

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Speaker 4: and this is not my guy for cam Ward, and

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Speaker 4: I lose faith. Maybe that's the pick eighteen to one

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Speaker 4: for an early firing for him, And in a long shot, yeah,

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Speaker 4: I think second year is fast. How about a first

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Speaker 4: year coach Kellen Moore one hundred and fifty to one.

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Speaker 4: The odds are outrageous because he literally hasn't coached as

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Speaker 4: head coach in NFL game yet. But we talked about

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Speaker 4: the Saints. They start out Cardinals, Niners, Seahawks, Bills, then

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Speaker 4: they get a home run against the Giants, they might

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Speaker 4: win that, and then he goes Patriots Bears box rams

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Speaker 4: like this could legitimately be zero to nine. And we've

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Speaker 4: seen this happen sometimes where a team hires a dude

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Speaker 4: and it's just immediately wrong and you can just tell

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Speaker 4: and the vibes are off. We have another coach waiting

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Speaker 4: on the roster, Brandon Staley, the coordinator on the defense,

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Speaker 4: Like he can just take over and maybe do something

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Speaker 4: a little different. The Giants, the Browns, they got levers

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Speaker 4: to pull. They can put the backup quarterback in, right,

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Speaker 4: you got the rookie quarterback. Oh, we're losing, let's bring

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Speaker 4: those guys in. What's the lever? Like Tyler Schuck is

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Speaker 4: not the lever here. There's nothing happening. I don't really

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Speaker 4: feel like they were even that excited to get Kellen

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Speaker 4: Moore or vice versa. That seemed like kind of an

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Speaker 4: arranged marriage that just was we were left standing, and

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Speaker 4: I guess this is happening now. So one hundred and

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Speaker 4: fifty to one. You could do crazier better than that,

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Speaker 4: And we'll see if they make it through the season.

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Speaker 1: Kellen Moore, first coach, fired one hundred and fifty to one,

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Speaker 1: barely as here. I don't even think he's dusted off

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Speaker 1: his playbook yet from arrival. All right, I'm gonna take

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Speaker 1: one of those top five favorites, but I'm not gonna

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Speaker 1: take Mike McDaniel, even though I do think that they

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Speaker 1: could potentially be one of the lowest scoring teams in

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Speaker 1: the NFL.

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Speaker 2: I think it has to be.

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Speaker 1: Brian Dable at four to one, a guy who is

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Speaker 1: literally coasting off of a nine and seven and one season.

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Speaker 1: The New York media already hates him. John Mehra also

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Speaker 1: has a history of firing coaches early. We've seen it

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Speaker 1: with Ben McAdoo, We've seen it with Jim Fossil, and

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Speaker 1: as I said, like his teams have regressed each year

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Speaker 1: as a coach, nine to seven to one first year,

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Speaker 1: then six and eleven, then three and fourteen. He's supposed

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Speaker 1: to be coming from Buffalo more of like an offensive

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Speaker 1: style coach. Well, offensively, they've regressed on that front every year,

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Speaker 1: like twenty one points per game in twenty two and

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Speaker 1: then they're a bottom five offense in each of the

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Speaker 1: last two years. They have the hardest schedule in the

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Speaker 1: NFL according to win totals, and their opening month is

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Speaker 1: kind of a mini gauntlet, like they've got the Commanders,

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Speaker 1: the cow Boys, the Chiefs, and the Chargers. We keep

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Speaker 1: coming back to that Week five game when it comes

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Speaker 1: to the worst record or longest win, longest losing streak

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Speaker 1: to start the year, because it's against the Saints, and

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Speaker 1: I think if the Giants are all in four and

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Speaker 1: they go into New Orleans and put up a stinker

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Speaker 1: with that awful quarterback situation, it's game over. Like they're

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Speaker 1: just the whole media front will be all over him. Evan,

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Speaker 1: you are based out of the New York area, I'm

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Speaker 1: sure you've got the vibes of what it's like to

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Speaker 1: have Brian Dable as head coach. Before you tell us

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Speaker 1: what you your picks, what do you think of Brian

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Speaker 1: dable chances of making it through this season?

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Speaker 3: My only standpoint of first coach fired the earliest is

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Speaker 3: the fact that he's probably not starting the guy that's

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Speaker 3: gonna get him fired. Like I don't necessarily think Russell

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Speaker 3: Wilson is the reason you fire Dable. Like if Dark

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Speaker 3: goes out there and everything looks a mess, I think

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Speaker 3: that's when he could get the can. But at that

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Speaker 3: point it's probably got to be too late, because maybe

434
00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:57,399
Speaker 3: somebody gets fired before then. So I think of that

435
00:19:57,520 --> 00:20:00,240
Speaker 3: short of odds, you're really trying to figure out out

436
00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:03,520
Speaker 3: which quarterback or which situation is going to be the

437
00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:07,119
Speaker 3: worst for the coach. So that would be my only hesitation.

438
00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:10,520
Speaker 3: But Giants aren't supposed to be good anyway. Their offense

439
00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:14,240
Speaker 3: really doesn't have other than neighbors like Tracy. I just

440
00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:16,440
Speaker 3: don't think there's a lot of hype, so I think

441
00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:18,600
Speaker 3: he's going to get at least a little bit of leeway.

442
00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:21,159
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, all right. So the only thing that I

443
00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:23,680
Speaker 1: would just it's not even a pushback. I would just say, yeah,

444
00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:26,520
Speaker 1: it felt like last year both sides were kind of

445
00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:29,760
Speaker 1: begrudgingly bringing each other back, similar to like the Kella

446
00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:32,000
Speaker 1: Moore situation, Like you're not sure if they even really

447
00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:33,520
Speaker 1: wanted to bring him back, but I'm not really sure

448
00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:35,560
Speaker 1: they had a candidate in mind that could replace them,

449
00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:37,040
Speaker 1: and I'm not sure if dab Will really wanted to

450
00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:39,760
Speaker 1: come back given that situation at quarterback. But he's like, well,

451
00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:41,680
Speaker 1: I'm still one of the thirty two NFL at coaches.

452
00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:44,320
Speaker 1: I'm not just gonna resign, so anyway that doesn't matter.

453
00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:47,200
Speaker 1: So Brian Dable four to one is who I like? Evan,

454
00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:48,760
Speaker 1: You've got a couple that you like. Who do you

455
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:50,119
Speaker 1: like for first coach?

456
00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:50,560
Speaker 3: Fire?

457
00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:50,960
Speaker 4: Yeah?

458
00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:53,760
Speaker 3: I think Callahan's a great bat with Brandon. He's three

459
00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:56,359
Speaker 3: and fourteen, so that can get really bad, really fast.

460
00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:59,000
Speaker 3: And the two and fifteen ats means nothing, but it

461
00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:02,199
Speaker 3: is a bad scarlet letter, so that's one thing to

462
00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:05,240
Speaker 3: be aware of. I think Zach Taylor is always an

463
00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:07,600
Speaker 3: interesting bet. I feel like if at this point put

464
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:10,480
Speaker 3: at least fifty dollars on him in like four straight seasons.

465
00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:13,480
Speaker 3: But is this This surprised me a little bit. He's

466
00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:16,639
Speaker 3: the sixth longest tenured coach in the NFL at this point,

467
00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:18,720
Speaker 3: so he has been in Cincinnati a long time. He

468
00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:20,760
Speaker 3: has been to the Super Bowl. But I think at

469
00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:24,640
Speaker 3: this point, if Cincinnati were to start slow again, would

470
00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:27,760
Speaker 3: there be some consideration of a change. I think it's

471
00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:30,040
Speaker 3: worth at least a bet, and I think the market

472
00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:31,800
Speaker 3: kind of agrees with me because it's only nine or

473
00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:34,280
Speaker 3: ten to one, so it's not much longer than that.

474
00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:37,160
Speaker 3: The only other bet I'll bring up here is Raheem Morris.

475
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:42,560
Speaker 3: I think it's possible, given having the quarterback drafting Panix,

476
00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:45,520
Speaker 3: like doing all these different things. If it starts really bad,

477
00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:48,040
Speaker 3: eighteen to one is an intriguing option.

478
00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:52,359
Speaker 1: Okay, well, I love I feel like all three that

479
00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:54,360
Speaker 1: you just laid out there have a chance, especially Zach

480
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 1: Taylor in the Cincinnati Bengals. If we see another zero

481
00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:59,680
Speaker 1: to three start, it could get really tumultuous, I believe.

482
00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:01,960
Speaker 3: And it's not going to be the all the people

483
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:03,560
Speaker 3: you just paid exactly.

484
00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:05,720
Speaker 4: Here's the problem. I think the Bengals are too cheap

485
00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:08,920
Speaker 4: to fire coach in the season. I think season, then

486
00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 4: get out afterward.

487
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:13,760
Speaker 1: All right, that was first coach fired. Let's move now

488
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:18,160
Speaker 1: to one of my favorite markets. Most interceptions thrown during

489
00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:22,119
Speaker 1: the regular season last year, I would have thought it

490
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:23,600
Speaker 1: was Jared Goff or not Jared Goff.

491
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:24,679
Speaker 2: I think Jared Goff is this year.

492
00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:26,280
Speaker 1: I would have thought it was Josh Allen who ended

493
00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 1: up having a career year, obviously winning MVP, but yes,

494
00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 1: to let the cat out of the bag, Jared Goff

495
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:32,920
Speaker 1: is who I think is going to throw the most

496
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:35,680
Speaker 1: interceptions in the NFL this year. It's around eighteen to one,

497
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:39,280
Speaker 1: twenty to one around that at fan duel, So let's

498
00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:42,080
Speaker 1: talk about him all right, twelve interceptions last year. The

499
00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:44,199
Speaker 1: big thing for me with Jared Goff, and I've been

500
00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:46,119
Speaker 1: saying this for years, is that we see kind of

501
00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:50,480
Speaker 1: a huge split when it's two conditions, when they have

502
00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 1: to play outdoors and when he gets a lot of pressure. Well,

503
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:56,760
Speaker 1: they only had to play four games outdoors last year.

504
00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 1: This year they've got eight games having to play outdoors,

505
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:01,240
Speaker 1: and it's a way tougher schedule.

506
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 2: Some of those road games.

507
00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:05,960
Speaker 1: You got the Chiefs, Eagles, Ravens, and then the Bears

508
00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:08,639
Speaker 1: in Chicago and the cold Weather to close the season,

509
00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:11,000
Speaker 1: and all four of those teams were top eight in

510
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,880
Speaker 1: pressure rate per drop back and interception rate per dropback,

511
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,200
Speaker 1: which does not vode well for Jared Goff, who tends

512
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:19,760
Speaker 1: to throw more interceptions when he is pressured. And then

513
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 1: there's just obviously the other factors that could impact him

514
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:25,719
Speaker 1: in the Lion's offense, a new offensive coordinator, a downgraded

515
00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:29,879
Speaker 1: offensive line with Frank ragnow retiring. And we've seen Jared

516
00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:32,639
Speaker 1: Goff as well that long leash. We've seen him have

517
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 1: games a five interception game, he had a three interception

518
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:38,920
Speaker 1: game in the playoffs against the Commanders. Dan Campbell and

519
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 1: that coaching staff. They're not going to bench him, and

520
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:43,720
Speaker 1: they're very aggressive on that front, especially on third and

521
00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 1: fourth down, especially on a passing frequency standpoint, which I

522
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:50,200
Speaker 1: think will just lead to more interception opportunities. So at

523
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:53,000
Speaker 1: eighteen to one, I think Jared Goff is my favorite

524
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:56,439
Speaker 1: bet for that market. Brandon, who do you like to

525
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 1: throw the most interceptions?

526
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:00,199
Speaker 4: I think the GoF is a pretty sharp bat here.

527
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:01,960
Speaker 4: I just have a quick dart on a long shot.

528
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:04,040
Speaker 4: I'm gonna keep dumping on the Saints. I'm gonna take

529
00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:07,440
Speaker 4: Spencer Ratler, mostly because he's eighty to one at bet MGM,

530
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 4: and like, the case that gets this pick is pretty easy.

531
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:11,919
Speaker 4: If he's that bad, why won't they just bench him

532
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 4: and play Tyler Shuck or Jay Cane or someone else.

533
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:16,720
Speaker 4: I think there's kind of maybe some like weird Jameis

534
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:19,840
Speaker 4: Winston potential, Like can he be really good and entertaining

535
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:22,400
Speaker 4: and bad all the same time, just chucking it all

536
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 4: over the place? Last year, Spencer Ratler finished top twenty

537
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:28,359
Speaker 4: in Turn of Our Worthy passes in the NFL. He

538
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 4: played seven games, So that's pretty impressive, my guy. Five percent.

539
00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:35,439
Speaker 4: That's one out of every twenty throws he's given the

540
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:38,280
Speaker 4: opponent a chance to steal it away. Six picks and

541
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 4: seven starts. So you know what if Tyler shuck is

542
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,400
Speaker 4: just never really ready, like the fact that he's already

543
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,239
Speaker 4: not starting for them, I think is pretty telling. What

544
00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:49,360
Speaker 4: if he does play and gets hurt, he just has

545
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:52,400
Speaker 4: like an endless buffet of injury history to his name.

546
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 4: I think Ratler there's a chance where he just keeps

547
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 4: playing most of the year. And if he does, and

548
00:24:57,640 --> 00:24:59,600
Speaker 4: this is terribly priced at eighty to one, because that's

549
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 4: the odds of like Lamar A, Aaron Rodgers and guys

550
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:05,480
Speaker 4: who are literally allergic to throwing interceptions. So just to

551
00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:08,199
Speaker 4: dart on, what if we get enough Rattler games, then

552
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:09,680
Speaker 4: I would like to have him at eighty to one.

553
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 2: Evan, what's your thoughts about Ratler?

554
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:13,359
Speaker 1: Do you think he can make it throughout the entire

555
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 1: season to get to that eighty to one threshold.

556
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 3: It's the bet. I mean, that's why you're getting the

557
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 3: price you're getting is because we're saying all the other

558
00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:24,359
Speaker 3: quarterbacks aren't gonna be ready or I kind of like

559
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 3: your Jamis standpoint, which is he's doing well enough, scoring

560
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 3: some points, doing some things, and he's going to stay

561
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:33,400
Speaker 3: out there. But four point four percent turnover worthy rate

562
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 3: last year, I mean, he was pretty bad in that area.

563
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:40,159
Speaker 3: It's like, really really top of the list for that statistic.

564
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:43,240
Speaker 3: So Rattler to me is definitely worthy at eighty to one.

565
00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,080
Speaker 3: Especially we know he's starting Week one and it's you know,

566
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:48,119
Speaker 3: for that mark, I would expect the price to get

567
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:49,359
Speaker 3: a little bit shorter, to be honest.

568
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:51,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean right now week one, looking at his

569
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:54,359
Speaker 1: interception odds, he's around minus two hundred to throw an

570
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 1: interception in that game. So yeah, is there any anybody

571
00:25:57,760 --> 00:25:58,320
Speaker 1: else you'll.

572
00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:01,160
Speaker 4: Ad, Yeah, you can win this in like twelve games too.

573
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:03,240
Speaker 4: He could just get that's so bad and I already

574
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 4: have the market wrapped up where at least give us

575
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:05,800
Speaker 4: a hedge position later.

576
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:08,120
Speaker 1: Definitely it could be the Sam Howe special like where

577
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 1: they just you know, when he's with the commanders and

578
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 1: he just threw like twenty interceptions and fourteen starts all right,

579
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 1: before we move on, I like some team touchdown leaders.

580
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 1: But Evan is what about like Dak and Darnald Dak Prescott.

581
00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:23,159
Speaker 1: Is there any because the one thing I would say

582
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:26,920
Speaker 1: about Dak through nine interceptions in nine games last year,

583
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,439
Speaker 1: based on the turnover where the play rate and projection,

584
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 1: he was probably close to throwing fifteen to sixteen interceptions.

585
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 1: It was right around that mark of what you need

586
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 1: to get the most interceptions in the NFL.

587
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 3: I mean, it's a similar reason why I like Dallas

588
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:41,239
Speaker 3: score the most points at thirty to one, Like, I

589
00:26:41,359 --> 00:26:44,199
Speaker 3: just think he's not going to be replaced unless he

590
00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:47,160
Speaker 3: gets hurt. And I think there's gonna be a lot

591
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 3: of offense to speak of, and I think the defense

592
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:52,480
Speaker 3: is going to be relatively poors, especially if there's no

593
00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:54,879
Speaker 3: Mica there. So I think at about ten to eleven

594
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:57,480
Speaker 3: to one, Dak has some value, and so is Sam Donald.

595
00:26:57,840 --> 00:26:59,679
Speaker 3: Like I just think there's no reason for him to

596
00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:03,600
Speaker 3: get placed. So I think that in those both those positions,

597
00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 3: they're going to be in the game. Long enough where

598
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 3: it's a possibility on both angles and from a turnover

599
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:13,360
Speaker 3: worthy throw rate, it's it's Spencer Rattler, It's Joe Flacco,

600
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 3: which I'll pass on because I think he's the extreme.

601
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 3: He's definitely not going to play enough in my opinion.

602
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 3: Dak He's definitely going to play enough. And Sam Darnold's

603
00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:25,320
Speaker 3: in the same conversation. So this award, more than many,

604
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:26,720
Speaker 3: is just about playing time.

605
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:28,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, all right.

606
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:32,520
Speaker 1: Let's now move to another market for team touchdown leaders.

607
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:34,760
Speaker 1: This is available at bet three sixty five. Essentially, what

608
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:37,680
Speaker 1: you're betting on is which player is going to lead

609
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:39,840
Speaker 1: the team in touchdowns by the end of the season.

610
00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:43,359
Speaker 1: Very simple, and for me, when I'm looking at these markets,

611
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:46,479
Speaker 1: sometimes I find that the edge isn't necessarily with the

612
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 1: top end teams, but it's more with like the bottom

613
00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 1: feet or middle of the pack, teams that have kind

614
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:55,240
Speaker 1: of uncertainty or maybe a higher injury probability so or

615
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:57,200
Speaker 1: even just teams that don't have that clear cut running

616
00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:59,440
Speaker 1: back one to swallow up all the red zone touches,

617
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:01,840
Speaker 1: sore guys that I like to lead their team in

618
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:04,640
Speaker 1: touchdowns by the end of the season. First one he's

619
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 1: gonna be Quinton Johnston with the Los Angeles Chargers. Now,

620
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:12,240
Speaker 1: I know from a playing standpoint, he's very frustrating, doesn't

621
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:15,200
Speaker 1: have the greatest hands, but led the team in touchdowns

622
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:18,080
Speaker 1: last year. He led the NFL with eight touchdowns versus

623
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:20,480
Speaker 1: zone coverages last year, which I think is important to note.

624
00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:24,160
Speaker 1: I just find he has high upside as a full

625
00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:26,359
Speaker 1: time player. The one thing that I will not knock

626
00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:28,720
Speaker 1: him about is that he's typically playing at least eighty

627
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 1: percent of snaps in his tenure as a Charger. I'm

628
00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:33,720
Speaker 1: not going to buy the Keenan Allen hype. He's a

629
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:35,480
Speaker 1: little bit older now, should be more of a role

630
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 1: player out of the slot. And I just found the

631
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:41,600
Speaker 1: price discrepancy because Lad McConkey is second round plus two fifty,

632
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:44,800
Speaker 1: the price disparency is disparity. Rather between twenty to one

633
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 1: and two point fifty is just too much for me.

634
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:48,960
Speaker 1: Where I felt like Quinton was the guy that we

635
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,640
Speaker 1: want to look this one's kind of obvious. Brock bauers

636
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:54,080
Speaker 1: a ten to one. I mean, I'm just dubious of

637
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:57,080
Speaker 1: Ashton gent coming in and dominating right away where he

638
00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 1: ends up leading the team in touchdowns Essentially, Genti is

639
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:02,760
Speaker 1: a minus seven to fifty favorite right now for this spot,

640
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 1: whereas brock Bowers.

641
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:04,400
Speaker 2: Is ten to one.

642
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 1: While I'll crap on Gino Smith all day, he is

643
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 1: an upgrade over Aidan O'Connell and that quarterback situation like

644
00:29:12,400 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 1: with Gardner Minshew. And then finally New Orleans Saints Juwan Johnson.

645
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 1: He's around fifteen to one. We've already seen him do this.

646
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 1: He led the team in touchdown receptions in twenty twenty two.

647
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:25,040
Speaker 1: They resigned to a new contract, so they're clearly inspired

648
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:28,040
Speaker 1: by what he can bring to the table. And obviously

649
00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 1: the wide receiver options on that team, I just think

650
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,400
Speaker 1: they're kind of flakes. Like Rashi Chihe he just hasn't

651
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:35,400
Speaker 1: been consistent, even though we see explosive plays. I'm just

652
00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 1: not convinced that he's going to lead the team in touchdowns.

653
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 1: And then Chris Alave there's just too many concussion issues

654
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 1: in Alvin Kamara. I'm not sure he's going to be

655
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 1: able to stay healthy throughout the entire year. So those

656
00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 1: are the three. Quentin Johnston twenty to one, brock Bowers

657
00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 1: at ten to one, and Juwan Johnson at fifteen to one.

658
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:54,360
Speaker 2: Brandon. You like a few of those who do you like?

659
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 4: Yeah? I like those bets. Also Joan Johnson, I think

660
00:29:57,680 --> 00:29:59,240
Speaker 4: is a good one. I looked for a Saints option.

661
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 4: I think I leave Juwan Johnson went to college with

662
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 4: Tyler Shuck at one point. Also like, that's how old

663
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 4: Tyler Shuck is coming in, So a little more Saints

664
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:09,800
Speaker 4: slander for you. I also targeted teams at the bottom

665
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 4: of the league here because you get teams that literally

666
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 4: five or six touchdowns might be your leader for the year.

667
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 4: And I'm not exaggerating, like the Browns or I'll start.

668
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 4: Their touchdown leader last year was six. So the competition

669
00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:25,000
Speaker 4: is David Nijoku and Jerry Judy. Their career highs are

670
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:27,760
Speaker 4: six touchdowns. So that's the you know, the top of

671
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:29,640
Speaker 4: the market here. So I'll just take a shot at

672
00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 4: the leading running back, Jerome Ford sixteen to one, he's

673
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 4: your RB one. Do I like Jerome Ford? No, I

674
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:38,320
Speaker 4: don't like anything about Jerome Ford, but he's gonna play.

675
00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 4: So how about him? The rookie Dylan Samson. I wanted

676
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 4: to get there. He had twenty two scores last year,

677
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:45,960
Speaker 4: but he's four to one. Books got there before I did,

678
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:47,880
Speaker 4: so I'll take the starter and just hope that he

679
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 4: like accidentally falls into the end zone five times and

680
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 4: we get there. Jets similar, but I like this on

681
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:55,880
Speaker 4: a little better. I think this is a run heavy team.

682
00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:58,960
Speaker 4: Gave me the goal line back on a run heavy offense,

683
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 4: Raylen Allen fourteen to one. I think he's the touchdown guy,

684
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:05,680
Speaker 4: not Briis Hall. And I'm not sure Justin Fields is

685
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:07,960
Speaker 4: gonna get a ton of sneaks. He's more gonna beat

686
00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 4: you around the edge with the speed. So again, I

687
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 4: think we only need five or six there, and then

688
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:14,600
Speaker 4: if we're gonna stick with the bottom teams, how about

689
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 4: a Lions pick another shot at Ben Johnson here. This

690
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 4: isn't a shot at the Lions offense. But I think

691
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 4: David Montgomery is terribly priced here. There's actually an odds

692
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 4: boost right now he's twelve to one, and you get

693
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:27,760
Speaker 4: him at fourteen to one at bat three sixty five.

694
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:30,800
Speaker 4: Montgomery is the touchdown guy, like he's the guy that

695
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:33,120
Speaker 4: you want to score for you. But Gibbs last year

696
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:36,800
Speaker 4: had sixteen rushing and four receiving. But Mike Clay does

697
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:39,240
Speaker 4: a great regression artic clevery year in ESPN about who

698
00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:41,720
Speaker 4: are the guys to come down and touchdowns. Gibbs is

699
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 4: the top pick, so he comes down. Montgomery led to

700
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 4: the Lions and touchdowns two years ago at thirteen. There's

701
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 4: three other dudes double digits that year, but Monty was

702
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 4: the top. He had twelve again last year. The floor

703
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:56,720
Speaker 4: is very high, and we get a new offensive play caller.

704
00:31:57,000 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 4: So what if the new guy's like, hey, let's not

705
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:02,120
Speaker 4: risk Jimmy Gibbs getting hurt on these goal line carriers.

706
00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 4: Just let Monty clean it up there and let's keep

707
00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 4: our young guy fresher. So I love that one here.

708
00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 4: Fourteen to one. I hadn't seen this market before. It's

709
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:10,240
Speaker 4: a fun one.

710
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 2: Yeah.

711
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:13,800
Speaker 1: And David Montgomery too, even twelve touchdowns last year. If

712
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 1: anything happens to Jamir Gibbs at all, that fourteen to

713
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:20,240
Speaker 1: one price has gone immediately. So, Evan, do you like

714
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:21,440
Speaker 1: any of these from this market?

715
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 3: God? I love this market, I wrote in the script.

716
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,520
Speaker 3: I have like eight Lol. I may have more, but

717
00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 3: I'm just gonna go through very quickly because I do.

718
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:32,280
Speaker 3: I love this market. I'm on brock Bowers at ten

719
00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 3: to one with you. I'm on all of Brandon's picks.

720
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 3: I'm on an anti lion, so I believe that Gibbs

721
00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:40,360
Speaker 3: it three hundred. It's just not the right price. So

722
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 3: I had aman Rod six to one, and I like

723
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 3: Montgomery at fourteen to one. Braylen Allen as well, you

724
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:48,160
Speaker 3: were one hundred percent nailed it. When you talk about

725
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 3: field across the edges versus like Josh Allen in the

726
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:53,640
Speaker 3: red zone, I think it's also miss priced, So fourteen

727
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:56,320
Speaker 3: to one there, and then I picked Anny Brown and

728
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 3: Samson was just way too short for not being, you know,

729
00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:03,480
Speaker 3: the absolute starting guy, so I think Ford also makes sense.

730
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:06,400
Speaker 3: I'll throw out a few more names. Golden at fourteen

731
00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:09,520
Speaker 3: to one. Jacobs is minus seven hundred. I completely get

732
00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 3: it with the injury to read. I think Golden's gonna

733
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 3: get a lot of looks in that offense, so I

734
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:18,400
Speaker 3: like that price. I also am kind of interested in Jacksonville,

735
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 3: so BTJ is minus one eighty. I've even seen in

736
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 3: minus two hundred. I thought Biggs b at about eight

737
00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:27,600
Speaker 3: to one is intriguing if you're gonna get Etn out

738
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:29,920
Speaker 3: of the way, which I think we think is possible

739
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 3: in this offense. Eight to one for a running back

740
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:33,920
Speaker 3: that's gonna get a bunch of looks. I think is

741
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:39,080
Speaker 3: intriguing Minnesota. So the favorite is justin Jefferson at minus

742
00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:41,959
Speaker 3: one twenty. Addison is going to be missing time, So

743
00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 3: I thought Jefferson should probably be a larger favorite given

744
00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:48,920
Speaker 3: what that offense looks like and the fact, yes feeling's

745
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:51,600
Speaker 3: in the door, He's probably gonna get some touchdowns. Want

746
00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 3: to look back to see if they list him, because

747
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:55,959
Speaker 3: I think he could become a favorite in the red zone.

748
00:33:56,080 --> 00:33:58,800
Speaker 3: So I really do like Jefferson, think he should be longer.

749
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:02,800
Speaker 3: And then I've only got two more, only Wandel Robinson

750
00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:06,080
Speaker 3: fourteen to one. I think it's intriguing. Malik Neighbors is

751
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:09,960
Speaker 3: plus one ten. Then you've got Scataboo and Tracy both

752
00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:12,120
Speaker 3: at three to one or shorter. I just think you

753
00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:15,560
Speaker 3: have a bunch of options here. We assume that Neighbors

754
00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:17,279
Speaker 3: are going to get a ton of stuff, but that

755
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:21,080
Speaker 3: doesn't necessarily always mean touchdowns. So I think at fourteen

756
00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:23,319
Speaker 3: to one, Wandell is also going to get a lot

757
00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 3: of the looks here. And for Pittsburgh, you can kind

758
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:28,640
Speaker 3: of go a bunch of different directions and a tight end.

759
00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 3: They've got two guys out there, John U and Friarmuth.

760
00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:33,920
Speaker 3: They're gonna run a lot of two tight end sets.

761
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 3: Rogers loves the tight end, so I thought Friarmoth at

762
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:39,799
Speaker 3: eleven to one had some intrigue to it as well.

763
00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:41,280
Speaker 2: No surprises, folks.

764
00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:43,920
Speaker 1: NFL season kicks off in a matter of days, and

765
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:46,160
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766
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:48,759
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767
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:52,800
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768
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769
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:58,160
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770
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:01,200
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774
00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:11,680
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775
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776
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777
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:20,760
Speaker 1: of Action Pro. All right, let's continue with more NFL

778
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 1: exotic futures bets, and we're looking now at season leader bets,

779
00:35:25,600 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 1: So this can pretty much touch on a lot of

780
00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 1: different things. Brandon, you've got four or five ready to go?

781
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 2: What do you got?

782
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:33,239
Speaker 4: Yeah, we used to do a whole season leaders pod

783
00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:35,360
Speaker 4: and it just didn't quite get there this year. But

784
00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:38,440
Speaker 4: one of my favorite season leader bets is the touchdown market,

785
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:42,880
Speaker 4: particularly rushing touchdowns, because touchdowns are random, so you can

786
00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 4: get a little bit better on the long shots yardage,

787
00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:47,640
Speaker 4: you're gonna get the favorites winning for the most part,

788
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:50,960
Speaker 4: but touchdowns, especially running Can I get that goal line back?

789
00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:53,880
Speaker 4: Can I get some vulture touchdowns? So I've got three.

790
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:56,800
Speaker 4: I like all three because they are all one hundred

791
00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:58,439
Speaker 4: to one and longer, so I'm gonna bet them all

792
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:02,000
Speaker 4: first one. Nick Nick Chubb is on the Texans. Now,

793
00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:04,279
Speaker 4: in case you've forgotten, Nick Chubb might be the starting

794
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:05,880
Speaker 4: running back in the Texans, and he might be for

795
00:36:05,920 --> 00:36:08,680
Speaker 4: the entire season because everything out of Joe Mixon is

796
00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:11,560
Speaker 4: looking terrible. So when now Chubb starts there at that

797
00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 4: running back, we'll see if he finishes. He's obviously got

798
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:16,560
Speaker 4: his own injured history, but he is just a great

799
00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:18,319
Speaker 4: peer runner and a guy that has a nose for

800
00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:21,000
Speaker 4: the end zone. When he's played healthy seasons, he has

801
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 4: eight touchdowns. In all five seasons he's been on the field,

802
00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:27,280
Speaker 4: he scored twelve twice. And he's running for Nick Cayley.

803
00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:29,759
Speaker 4: So I looked at Nick Caayley's history. He coached with

804
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:33,800
Speaker 4: the Rams, and he coached under Josh McDaniels. Okay Rams.

805
00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:36,960
Speaker 4: Tyron Williams had twelve and fourteen rushing touchdowns the last

806
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:40,720
Speaker 4: two years. Josh McDaniels offense has been top six rushing

807
00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:45,200
Speaker 4: touchdowns ten of eighteen seasons. Corey Dillon at thirteen under McDaniels,

808
00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:48,279
Speaker 4: Stephen Ridley had twelve, le Garrett Blunt had eighteen, and

809
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:50,799
Speaker 4: out of the league Damien Harrison fifteen. These are not

810
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:55,040
Speaker 4: star runners, but when they get close, they're punching it in.

811
00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 4: So if Nick Kyley is doing what his mentors have done.

812
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:02,240
Speaker 4: Nick Chubb rushing touchdowns leader, it's one hundred and twenty

813
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 4: five to one at Caesars. To be sure to shop

814
00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:08,440
Speaker 4: round on these because the numbers are varying wildly. So

815
00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:11,239
Speaker 4: that's the first one, that's the name, you know, let's

816
00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:13,840
Speaker 4: dig a little deeper. Next one is one hundred and

817
00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:17,400
Speaker 4: fifty to one. It's a local guy from me, Roshawn

818
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:21,000
Speaker 4: Johnson of the Bears. He scored six times last year.

819
00:37:21,040 --> 00:37:24,040
Speaker 4: And again I'm looking at Ben Johnson, and what does

820
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:27,440
Speaker 4: Ben Johnson's offenses do They run the ball into the

821
00:37:27,520 --> 00:37:30,799
Speaker 4: end zone. We just did Montgomery and Gibbs. We talked

822
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:34,920
Speaker 4: about their rushing touchdowns. Okay, let's follow them to Chicago.

823
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:35,320
Speaker 2: Now.

824
00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:39,359
Speaker 4: Ben Johnson's offense ranked top three in rushing touchdowns all

825
00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:42,319
Speaker 4: three years as he led the team in Detroit. So

826
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 4: one of those years, DeAndre Swift was on the team

827
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 4: the Bears running back he had five. Jamal Williams had

828
00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:51,360
Speaker 4: seventeen and led the league. He was the winner in

829
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:54,759
Speaker 4: this category. Then the last two years. The only reason

830
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:57,000
Speaker 4: we didn't get a winner under those years is that

831
00:37:57,040 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 4: what we just said they split. Monty had ten, you know,

832
00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 4: Gibbs had thirteen, Montez twelve, Gibbs us sixteen. That's twenty

833
00:38:04,239 --> 00:38:07,320
Speaker 4: three and twenty eight rushing touchdowns for those two running backs.

834
00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:10,960
Speaker 4: And all reporting on Chicago is that Roshan Johnson is

835
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:13,799
Speaker 4: the goal line guy. So one hundred and fifty to

836
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 4: one to lead the league. And if you're not quite

837
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:18,759
Speaker 4: so high on the Bears scoring enough to do that

838
00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:21,840
Speaker 4: I was like, wait, why didn't I add this Bears

839
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 4: touchdown leader forty to one at bet three six five.

840
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:27,279
Speaker 4: Add that one into the last category and you get

841
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:31,440
Speaker 4: that one as well. Last one rushing touchdowns leader the

842
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:34,880
Speaker 4: rookie out of Denver, RJ. Harvey two hundred to one.

843
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:38,840
Speaker 4: That's at bet MGM AUGUESPN. Last two years in college

844
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:42,640
Speaker 4: he had thirty eight rushing touchdowns combined. Sean Payton, again

845
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:44,960
Speaker 4: a guy that likes to punch it in on the ground,

846
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:48,719
Speaker 4: top seven rushing touchdowns ten of the seventeen years he's

847
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:51,560
Speaker 4: been the head coach. So we've seen that from Mark Ingram,

848
00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 4: We've seen Alvin Kamara. This is a market I love

849
00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:56,759
Speaker 4: because you can look at the coaching tendency and not

850
00:38:56,840 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 4: the running back talent and say, okay, who's your guy

851
00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:01,719
Speaker 4: to get you into the end zone? And I think

852
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:04,920
Speaker 4: these three play in systems and coaches that want to

853
00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:08,279
Speaker 4: just run it in. So Nick chob Roshawn Johnson and RJ.

854
00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:11,320
Speaker 4: Harvey all longer than one hundred to one. If you

855
00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:14,360
Speaker 4: want a more reasonable bet, I think Christian McCaffrey twenty

856
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:16,120
Speaker 4: five to one is like the right bet to make

857
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 4: in a shorter market, But I'm just going to take

858
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:20,520
Speaker 4: all three long shots, and you know you can hit

859
00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:22,720
Speaker 4: some of the long shots on these rushing touchdown bets.

860
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:25,239
Speaker 1: Well, the only one of the four that I'm very

861
00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:27,840
Speaker 1: curious on is the Nick Chubb one because with the

862
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:29,960
Speaker 1: mix and news you've seen even comeback player of the

863
00:39:30,040 --> 00:39:32,719
Speaker 1: Year odds like Plummet where he's now one of the

864
00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:35,239
Speaker 1: top five favorites for that award. So if he's going

865
00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:37,560
Speaker 1: to be a focal point of that offense, that could

866
00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:39,600
Speaker 1: very well lead him to the top of the lead aboard.

867
00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:42,560
Speaker 1: From a touchdown perspective. Evan, what do you like for

868
00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:44,560
Speaker 1: this market? Is there any season later bets?

869
00:39:44,640 --> 00:39:44,839
Speaker 2: You know?

870
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:47,200
Speaker 1: Are you looking at rushing touchdowns receiving touchdowns?

871
00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:47,719
Speaker 2: What do you like?

872
00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:51,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with Brandon and just looking at mostly touchdowns

873
00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:54,360
Speaker 3: Because of variants, I feel like there is a more

874
00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:57,960
Speaker 3: ability in the market to look for long shots. So

875
00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:00,360
Speaker 3: I am completely with him on Nick chok He was

876
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:02,399
Speaker 3: also on my list, and I also think it's six

877
00:40:02,480 --> 00:40:05,279
Speaker 3: to one to lead the team in touchdowns is intriguing

878
00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:07,840
Speaker 3: as well, So I like both of those markets.

879
00:40:08,280 --> 00:40:08,440
Speaker 2: R J.

880
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:10,880
Speaker 3: Harvey also on my list. Two hundred to one is

881
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:14,400
Speaker 3: just absolutely way too long for that guy, especially, you

882
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:17,120
Speaker 3: know he's gonna be mix with Dobbins potentially, But I

883
00:40:17,160 --> 00:40:19,239
Speaker 3: think Harvey has a lot of potential to score a

884
00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:22,480
Speaker 3: ton of touchdowns for Peyton Jade Daniels. Two hundred to

885
00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 3: one seems insane, but it's also maybe the only thing

886
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:29,240
Speaker 3: they'll be actually doing really well, which is him running

887
00:40:29,280 --> 00:40:31,480
Speaker 3: the ball. So I think I'm going to touch that

888
00:40:31,680 --> 00:40:35,359
Speaker 3: a little bit and don a chen he is good

889
00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:38,359
Speaker 3: to go, and he was one hundred to one now

890
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:40,560
Speaker 3: he's eighty to one. So we're gonna crap on the

891
00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:42,600
Speaker 3: Dolphins offense and do that a ton, But at that

892
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:45,919
Speaker 3: price for a skilled player like himself to get him

893
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:49,560
Speaker 3: backfield throwing, I mean catching like, there's a bunch of

894
00:40:49,560 --> 00:40:51,080
Speaker 3: ways for him to be in the end zone. So

895
00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:53,120
Speaker 3: I took it at one hundred. It's down to eighty.

896
00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:55,799
Speaker 3: Those to me are probably the long shots to take

897
00:40:55,840 --> 00:40:59,880
Speaker 3: in the rushing market. From receiving standpoint, I think this

898
00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:01,840
Speaker 3: this is a little bit tougher. So these are just

899
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:04,440
Speaker 3: some names I don't These aren't bets yet, these were

900
00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:07,480
Speaker 3: names I considered, so like Mims at two hundred to one,

901
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 3: cross my brain. A Dunzay at one hundred to one,

902
00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:13,359
Speaker 3: also crossed, but I think there's way too many options there,

903
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 3: so I think the bet to look at I like

904
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:19,640
Speaker 3: Golden at fifty to one. I think it's in that offense. Again,

905
00:41:19,680 --> 00:41:21,360
Speaker 3: I talked about it earlier when I liked him. I

906
00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 3: think fourteen to one to lead the Packers might as

907
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:26,480
Speaker 3: well through a few shekels at fifty to one. So

908
00:41:26,520 --> 00:41:28,920
Speaker 3: I think those are probably my favorite bets. On the

909
00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:32,200
Speaker 3: receiving side, I had Worthy at fifty to one, but

910
00:41:32,400 --> 00:41:35,359
Speaker 3: I think there's a rushing standpoint. I think receiving will

911
00:41:35,360 --> 00:41:37,319
Speaker 3: be a hard one because I think, like a chan

912
00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:39,840
Speaker 3: there might be an ability to not win the category

913
00:41:39,840 --> 00:41:42,600
Speaker 3: but win total touchdowns. So I think at fifty to

914
00:41:42,600 --> 00:41:44,640
Speaker 3: one it's a little short, even without Rice out. So

915
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:47,799
Speaker 3: that's what I thought. And just one real funny one

916
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:49,480
Speaker 3: and this is just I had to bring this up.

917
00:41:49,640 --> 00:41:53,880
Speaker 3: You look at passing touchdowns, every starting quarterback in the

918
00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:56,640
Speaker 3: NFL is like two hundred and fifty to one or shorter.

919
00:41:56,960 --> 00:42:00,400
Speaker 3: Daniel Jones is five hundred to one. So I feel

920
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 3: like for a starting quarterback in the NFL, that is

921
00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:05,840
Speaker 3: just way too long. He will get a dollar from me.

922
00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:09,760
Speaker 1: I just wanted to bring up Matthew Golden again because

923
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:13,040
Speaker 1: you're pretty high on Packers in general, but also Matthew

924
00:42:13,040 --> 00:42:15,280
Speaker 1: Golden and his I was looking at his Offensive Rookie

925
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:17,800
Speaker 1: Year of the Year award because if he leads the

926
00:42:17,880 --> 00:42:20,760
Speaker 1: league in touchdowns, I mean, yeah, it's around twenty to one.

927
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:22,920
Speaker 1: I think I would prefer the touchdown bet more than

928
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:26,040
Speaker 1: the Offensive Rookie of the Year bet, just if I'm

929
00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:28,239
Speaker 1: picking between the two. One as long as sides, and

930
00:42:28,239 --> 00:42:29,960
Speaker 1: I think one probably has to happen for him to

931
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:33,920
Speaker 1: actually get that award over some of the other candidates. Brandon,

932
00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:36,080
Speaker 1: you have a receiving yards one before we move on.

933
00:42:36,120 --> 00:42:37,560
Speaker 1: What one do you like on this side?

934
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:40,760
Speaker 4: Yeah? My only yards one here is AJ Brown receiving

935
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:44,239
Speaker 4: yards leader. It's twenty eight to one at Caesars. Last year,

936
00:42:44,280 --> 00:42:47,720
Speaker 4: only two guys in the entire NFL top thirteen hundred yards.

937
00:42:47,719 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 4: So this was a very attainable market, more so than

938
00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:52,440
Speaker 4: you think. And granted got some injuries last year and

939
00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:55,120
Speaker 4: AJ Brown was one of them. Before last year, he

940
00:42:55,160 --> 00:42:58,040
Speaker 4: had fourteen hundred and fifty yards or more both the

941
00:42:58,080 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 4: previous seasons, so we've seen him have that stretch of

942
00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:02,799
Speaker 4: seven games were had at least one hundred and twenty

943
00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:05,440
Speaker 4: yards all games in a row that stretch. I think

944
00:43:05,480 --> 00:43:07,279
Speaker 4: he had like a twenty three hundred yard pace over

945
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:09,640
Speaker 4: a whole season. We've never seen a two thousand yard

946
00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:12,399
Speaker 4: receiver before. And I think if Philly passes more this year,

947
00:43:12,760 --> 00:43:14,560
Speaker 4: as we expect them to in the second half and

948
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:17,680
Speaker 4: in closer games, aj Brown should get some a little

949
00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:20,319
Speaker 4: more volume. He's never going to be the volume guy,

950
00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:23,279
Speaker 4: but he's so efficient, almost sixteen yards a catch for

951
00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:26,120
Speaker 4: his career, over ten yards of target in his career.

952
00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:28,799
Speaker 4: I think he pushes at least fifteen hundred yards and

953
00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:31,439
Speaker 4: gets in the mix. If you want, you can bet

954
00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:34,080
Speaker 4: him just to get fifteen hundred yards. That's seven to

955
00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:36,319
Speaker 4: one at bet MGM. So I like that as kind

956
00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:39,440
Speaker 4: of a baseline and then yardage leader for the league

957
00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:43,359
Speaker 4: twenty eight to one Caesars as the escalator there for sure.

958
00:43:43,440 --> 00:43:46,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean AJ Brown is a player that he

959
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:49,600
Speaker 1: cooks man coverage. He has led the NFL in yards

960
00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:51,359
Speaker 1: per route run in each of the last two years

961
00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:54,120
Speaker 1: against man coverage. If they ever decide to become more

962
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:57,719
Speaker 1: fifty to fifty on the passing running front, he is

963
00:43:57,719 --> 00:43:59,839
Speaker 1: going to be one of the biggest beneficiaries, especially when

964
00:43:59,840 --> 00:44:02,239
Speaker 1: we saw two seasons ago where he just had that

965
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:04,040
Speaker 1: stretch where again, like you said, he was on pace

966
00:44:04,040 --> 00:44:07,080
Speaker 1: for over two thousand yards. All right, let's move on

967
00:44:07,200 --> 00:44:10,040
Speaker 1: now to These are kind of like wild card bets.

968
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:11,279
Speaker 1: I guess this is the best way to put it.

969
00:44:11,320 --> 00:44:12,880
Speaker 1: Like they're just kind of bets that we didn't have

970
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:14,759
Speaker 1: a category for it. We just going to shoehorn them

971
00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:17,560
Speaker 1: in here. And part of the reason why I picking

972
00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:21,520
Speaker 1: this one is because I was not able to attend

973
00:44:21,640 --> 00:44:26,080
Speaker 1: the Offensive Player of the Year Award podcast. So I'm

974
00:44:26,200 --> 00:44:30,000
Speaker 1: gonna shoehorn myself in here and wedge myself into that conversation.

975
00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:33,359
Speaker 1: And I think the guy that I wanted to take

976
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:36,000
Speaker 1: on this front, guys is Ceedee Lamb. I just want

977
00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:38,080
Speaker 1: to make a case for why I think you should

978
00:44:38,120 --> 00:44:40,440
Speaker 1: win Offensive Player of the Year. So just to give

979
00:44:40,480 --> 00:44:42,520
Speaker 1: a little bit of background on this podcast. In twenty

980
00:44:42,520 --> 00:44:45,040
Speaker 1: twenty two, I gave out Justin Jefferson as sixteen to one.

981
00:44:45,360 --> 00:44:47,440
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty three, I gave out Christian McCaffrey at

982
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:50,440
Speaker 1: fourteen to one. Last year, my pick was Jamar Chase.

983
00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:52,920
Speaker 1: I thought I was going to have another winner, because

984
00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:56,200
Speaker 1: every wide receiver triple Crown winner has won this award,

985
00:44:56,320 --> 00:44:58,120
Speaker 1: and he didn't even finish in the top three. So

986
00:44:58,160 --> 00:45:00,720
Speaker 1: I'm not even looking now at what or not triple

987
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:03,920
Speaker 1: Crown is going to be a deciding factor. But part

988
00:45:03,920 --> 00:45:05,120
Speaker 1: of the reason why I wanted to go back to

989
00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:08,280
Speaker 1: Lamb here is just the sheer target volume that comes

990
00:45:08,280 --> 00:45:11,000
Speaker 1: his way, regardless if it's Dak or not. In twenty

991
00:45:11,040 --> 00:45:13,040
Speaker 1: twenty three, he finished third in Offensive Player of the

992
00:45:13,080 --> 00:45:15,800
Speaker 1: Year Award voting. Legit case, he could have been second

993
00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:18,560
Speaker 1: behind Christian McCaffrey ahead of Tyreek Hill given where they

994
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:21,160
Speaker 1: finished in the season, But I think twenty twenty four

995
00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:24,480
Speaker 1: we kind of lost track of where ceed was on

996
00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:27,680
Speaker 1: the pecking order because he started off slow. They had

997
00:45:27,680 --> 00:45:29,920
Speaker 1: that contract holdout, didn't sign the contract until like a

998
00:45:29,960 --> 00:45:32,719
Speaker 1: week before training camp was over. The Cowboys offense kind

999
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:35,080
Speaker 1: of spluttered out the gate. Dak was out with injury

1000
00:45:35,120 --> 00:45:38,440
Speaker 1: after Week nine. So again, with Dak back, assuming he's

1001
00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:42,400
Speaker 1: healthy for a full season, I'm projecting at least eight wins,

1002
00:45:42,880 --> 00:45:44,600
Speaker 1: and I think at twenty to one this is a

1003
00:45:44,600 --> 00:45:46,880
Speaker 1: great price and kind of a great entry point to

1004
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:48,680
Speaker 1: the offensive Player of the Year market, as you go

1005
00:45:48,719 --> 00:45:51,320
Speaker 1: from a portfolio standpoint, and then you could start to

1006
00:45:51,400 --> 00:45:53,080
Speaker 1: kind of shift and go as the weeks go. But

1007
00:45:53,120 --> 00:45:55,719
Speaker 1: I think Ceedee Lamb at twenty to one, given the

1008
00:45:56,440 --> 00:45:58,920
Speaker 1: volume of targets that he is going to get in

1009
00:45:58,960 --> 00:46:01,400
Speaker 1: this offense, I think right now he is the best value.

1010
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:03,880
Speaker 1: My heart was initially on the Jamir Gibbs train, but

1011
00:46:04,320 --> 00:46:07,680
Speaker 1: again the David Montgomery presence, the offensive line regression, Ben

1012
00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:10,160
Speaker 1: Johnson leaving, I just couldn't get there, Whereas I think

1013
00:46:10,160 --> 00:46:12,880
Speaker 1: Ceedee Lamb is primed for a nice bounce back season.

1014
00:46:12,920 --> 00:46:16,880
Speaker 1: So that's what I like for Offensive Player of the Year. Brandon,

1015
00:46:16,880 --> 00:46:19,840
Speaker 1: what before you talk about what kind of bet you like?

1016
00:46:19,920 --> 00:46:21,520
Speaker 1: Do you think, like I know, you kind of already

1017
00:46:21,520 --> 00:46:23,400
Speaker 1: handicapped this market, what do you think of Ceede Lamb's

1018
00:46:23,440 --> 00:46:25,359
Speaker 1: chances to win off it's a player of the year. Yeah,

1019
00:46:25,400 --> 00:46:27,000
Speaker 1: I mean I think he's in the mix. I do

1020
00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:29,319
Speaker 1: think it's actually more of a receiver's award. Even though

1021
00:46:29,320 --> 00:46:31,120
Speaker 1: we're on two running backs in a row now, I

1022
00:46:31,120 --> 00:46:35,000
Speaker 1: still think we're trending towards receivers. We talked only Evan

1023
00:46:35,000 --> 00:46:36,919
Speaker 1: and I did this one that there are a bunch

1024
00:46:36,960 --> 00:46:40,279
Speaker 1: of receivers like Lamb in that twenty to one range, and.

1025
00:46:40,200 --> 00:46:41,919
Speaker 4: I think they're the right guys. Like I like Nico

1026
00:46:42,000 --> 00:46:44,279
Speaker 4: Collins a ton. I really wanted to bet him for

1027
00:46:44,320 --> 00:46:46,799
Speaker 4: this award. The problem is there's a bunch of them,

1028
00:46:46,880 --> 00:46:49,160
Speaker 4: and you got to have just like outlandish stats to

1029
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:51,759
Speaker 4: win this award. Like you said, Jamar Chase leaves the

1030
00:46:51,840 --> 00:46:53,959
Speaker 4: league in all three categories and still isn't even close

1031
00:46:54,000 --> 00:46:57,240
Speaker 4: to winning yet. So I think Nico, I think Lamb.

1032
00:46:57,440 --> 00:46:59,240
Speaker 4: I think the guys at twenty to one, like they're

1033
00:46:59,239 --> 00:47:01,759
Speaker 4: basically priced right for me. I don't think there's a

1034
00:47:01,800 --> 00:47:04,759
Speaker 4: ton of value in it because there's just any number

1035
00:47:04,760 --> 00:47:07,280
Speaker 4: of guys and we don't know what the Shottenheimer offense

1036
00:47:07,360 --> 00:47:10,959
Speaker 4: necessarily will look like now. So I can't hate the pick,

1037
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:12,759
Speaker 4: but I can't love the pick just because there are

1038
00:47:12,760 --> 00:47:15,399
Speaker 4: so many other options. But I think absolutely if you're

1039
00:47:15,440 --> 00:47:17,719
Speaker 4: in a name like eight receivers, who's going to be

1040
00:47:17,760 --> 00:47:19,799
Speaker 4: in the mix for this award. I just talked about

1041
00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:22,600
Speaker 4: AJ Brown, He's one of my picks. I think Ceedee, Lamb,

1042
00:47:22,680 --> 00:47:26,280
Speaker 4: Nico Collins, my guy, Justin Jefferson, like all those guys

1043
00:47:26,680 --> 00:47:28,720
Speaker 4: all seem like they should be priced in this range.

1044
00:47:28,719 --> 00:47:30,680
Speaker 1: So I think it makes sense for sure, and I

1045
00:47:30,680 --> 00:47:35,040
Speaker 1: mean reality is that full disclosure. If Sakuon Barkley continues

1046
00:47:35,040 --> 00:47:38,600
Speaker 1: to have like big seventy five yard touchdown runs every week,

1047
00:47:38,719 --> 00:47:41,319
Speaker 1: this award is gonna be over quickly. Because people were

1048
00:47:41,320 --> 00:47:44,239
Speaker 1: already ahead over eels him in this offense last year.

1049
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:45,800
Speaker 1: I can't imagine they're not going to give it to

1050
00:47:45,880 --> 00:47:48,400
Speaker 1: him again if he continues to play the way he did,

1051
00:47:48,480 --> 00:47:51,480
Speaker 1: especially during that playoff run. All right, Brandon, what do

1052
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:54,040
Speaker 1: you like now for a wild card long shot?

1053
00:47:54,200 --> 00:47:54,439
Speaker 2: Yeah?

1054
00:47:54,440 --> 00:47:56,759
Speaker 4: So just two other player things to give out here.

1055
00:47:56,920 --> 00:47:58,719
Speaker 4: We just talked about Offensive Player of the Year. We

1056
00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:02,040
Speaker 4: said on the podcast, this is not usually a quarterback's award,

1057
00:48:02,040 --> 00:48:03,960
Speaker 4: but if any quarterback was going to win it, I

1058
00:48:03,960 --> 00:48:06,359
Speaker 4: think it could be Joe Burrow. So here's the angle

1059
00:48:06,400 --> 00:48:08,120
Speaker 4: I'm gonna play. I did not end up betting Burrow

1060
00:48:08,160 --> 00:48:11,440
Speaker 4: because quarterbacks have not won OPOY for like seven or

1061
00:48:11,440 --> 00:48:13,680
Speaker 4: eight years, I believe, But I said that I thought

1062
00:48:13,719 --> 00:48:15,960
Speaker 4: he could have a shot at five thousand, even fifty

1063
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:18,600
Speaker 4: five hundred yards a shot to break the passing record

1064
00:48:18,920 --> 00:48:21,000
Speaker 4: at draftings, we can bet it he can break the

1065
00:48:21,040 --> 00:48:23,839
Speaker 4: passing record, which is fifty four to seventy eight, that's

1066
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:26,600
Speaker 4: what he needs. Before I even saw that number, I

1067
00:48:26,640 --> 00:48:30,239
Speaker 4: literally projected, Okay, what's the upside version of Burrow look like?

1068
00:48:30,560 --> 00:48:33,080
Speaker 4: And I wrote down fifty five hundred yards as that number.

1069
00:48:33,160 --> 00:48:34,560
Speaker 4: So when I saw this, but I was like, I'm

1070
00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:38,120
Speaker 4: definitely making that. He led the league last year in completions, attempts,

1071
00:48:38,320 --> 00:48:40,880
Speaker 4: and yards. That's the own triple crown as far as

1072
00:48:41,000 --> 00:48:44,960
Speaker 4: quarterbacks go. And from week ten forward he paced for

1073
00:48:45,080 --> 00:48:50,480
Speaker 4: fifty seven hundred yards last season already, So the Bengals

1074
00:48:50,520 --> 00:48:53,560
Speaker 4: can't play defense. He's going to be chucking all season long.

1075
00:48:53,760 --> 00:48:57,400
Speaker 4: To t Higgins and Jamar Chase. His last three seasons,

1076
00:48:57,680 --> 00:49:00,240
Speaker 4: he said at least forty four and seventy five yards

1077
00:49:00,280 --> 00:49:03,120
Speaker 4: all three. So you can bet forty five hundred yards

1078
00:49:03,400 --> 00:49:06,080
Speaker 4: plus one hundred and ninety at Caesars. That's just like

1079
00:49:06,200 --> 00:49:08,480
Speaker 4: stay healthy and you're probably gonna hit that. So that's

1080
00:49:08,480 --> 00:49:11,560
Speaker 4: a pretty good starter bed here. But then break the

1081
00:49:11,560 --> 00:49:15,160
Speaker 4: passing record. I believe he's the leader for passing yardage.

1082
00:49:15,200 --> 00:49:17,080
Speaker 4: Otherwise that would have been my bet all of the

1083
00:49:17,120 --> 00:49:19,640
Speaker 4: long shots. This is the long shot version of that,

1084
00:49:19,760 --> 00:49:22,000
Speaker 4: go get the record. I don't think he's gonna go

1085
00:49:22,000 --> 00:49:24,680
Speaker 4: get MVP because his team's not gonna be there for him,

1086
00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:27,600
Speaker 4: so maybe he can win this instead and then last

1087
00:49:27,640 --> 00:49:29,560
Speaker 4: one just totally off the board.

1088
00:49:29,560 --> 00:49:29,799
Speaker 2: Here.

1089
00:49:30,160 --> 00:49:32,439
Speaker 4: Beat three six five is also offering. We talked about

1090
00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:35,160
Speaker 4: the touchdown leaders per team. Let me give you a

1091
00:49:35,239 --> 00:49:39,720
Speaker 4: receptions leader on the Miami Dolphins. And it's not Tyreek Hill,

1092
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:42,480
Speaker 4: who looks like it can can bust anytime. And it's

1093
00:49:42,520 --> 00:49:44,919
Speaker 4: not Devon a Chan who's hurt already and I don't

1094
00:49:44,960 --> 00:49:46,799
Speaker 4: know how much we're gonna get out of him. And

1095
00:49:46,880 --> 00:49:50,080
Speaker 4: it probably would be Jayalen Wattle, you'd think, but guys,

1096
00:49:50,120 --> 00:49:52,279
Speaker 4: do you know who led the team in receptions last year?

1097
00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:55,000
Speaker 4: Wasn't any of those guys. It was John news Smith.

1098
00:49:55,400 --> 00:49:58,239
Speaker 4: He's in Pittsburgh. Now, how about the new tight end,

1099
00:49:58,560 --> 00:50:05,160
Speaker 4: Darren Waller, one Miami Dolphins receptions leader. This is outlandish.

1100
00:50:05,360 --> 00:50:08,279
Speaker 4: Darren Waller hasn't even played yet for the Dolphins. He

1101
00:50:08,320 --> 00:50:11,160
Speaker 4: hasn't even suited up in preseason or practice. As far

1102
00:50:11,200 --> 00:50:14,200
Speaker 4: as I can tell, we don't even know, like did

1103
00:50:14,280 --> 00:50:17,880
Speaker 4: you actually retire? Are you doing anything? Darren Waller? So

1104
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:20,080
Speaker 4: this bet might just be like chasing the wind. But

1105
00:50:20,160 --> 00:50:24,080
Speaker 4: here's the thing. Darren Waller had ninety catches and one

1106
00:50:24,160 --> 00:50:27,080
Speaker 4: hundred and seven catches in twenty nineteen and twenty twenty.

1107
00:50:27,120 --> 00:50:29,520
Speaker 4: Now that's a half decade ago, I know. But you

1108
00:50:29,560 --> 00:50:32,919
Speaker 4: know whose coach was when he was breaking out? Darren

1109
00:50:33,000 --> 00:50:35,680
Speaker 4: Waller's tight ends coach was a guy named Frank Smith,

1110
00:50:35,960 --> 00:50:39,040
Speaker 4: who's the offensive coordinator the Miami Dolphins, who went out

1111
00:50:39,080 --> 00:50:41,440
Speaker 4: and brought in Darren Waller to be his tight end

1112
00:50:41,480 --> 00:50:46,080
Speaker 4: when he needed one. So it's my outlandishly ridiculous long shot.

1113
00:50:46,280 --> 00:50:49,200
Speaker 4: But Darren Waller forty to one to come off his

1114
00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:52,600
Speaker 4: couch and lead the Dolphins in receptions unreal.

1115
00:50:52,640 --> 00:50:55,680
Speaker 3: It's quarterback agnostic too, because Zach Wilson, could, you know,

1116
00:50:55,719 --> 00:50:56,640
Speaker 3: even help this out.

1117
00:50:57,200 --> 00:50:58,960
Speaker 1: I was gonna ask you, what do you think it's

1118
00:50:58,960 --> 00:51:01,759
Speaker 1: more likely Darren wall lead this team in receptions or

1119
00:51:01,760 --> 00:51:03,800
Speaker 1: to have a number one single on the hot one hundred.

1120
00:51:04,280 --> 00:51:06,080
Speaker 3: I was just gonna say, you could parlay it too,

1121
00:51:06,120 --> 00:51:10,239
Speaker 3: and it's probably at least one hundred to one.

1122
00:51:10,560 --> 00:51:12,400
Speaker 2: All right, let's move to some fast futures.

1123
00:51:12,480 --> 00:51:17,279
Speaker 1: This is available at DraftKings, so essentially this is you know,

1124
00:51:17,800 --> 00:51:21,000
Speaker 1: most after four weeks, most after five weeks, so there's

1125
00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:24,280
Speaker 1: a certain cutoff for these, so these aren't season long futures.

1126
00:51:24,280 --> 00:51:28,160
Speaker 1: These are more quadrants or portions of the season. Brandon White,

1127
00:51:28,239 --> 00:51:28,919
Speaker 1: you start us off.

1128
00:51:29,480 --> 00:51:31,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think this was new as well. This to

1129
00:51:31,400 --> 00:51:34,040
Speaker 4: me looks kind of like I think the touchdown bet

1130
00:51:34,080 --> 00:51:35,920
Speaker 4: of the future as the market or maybe the nurfy

1131
00:51:35,960 --> 00:51:38,600
Speaker 4: if you're at baseball better futures, but they cash a

1132
00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:41,080
Speaker 4: month from now if we win. So I've got three

1133
00:51:41,120 --> 00:51:43,200
Speaker 4: team bets and two player bets. Let me just whip

1134
00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:46,240
Speaker 4: through them. Here. You can bet on how many wins

1135
00:51:46,280 --> 00:51:49,080
Speaker 4: will you have after five games. These are all at DraftKings,

1136
00:51:49,320 --> 00:51:52,000
Speaker 4: and I'm betting three teams all to have zero wins.

1137
00:51:52,320 --> 00:51:55,040
Speaker 4: Two of them shouldn't surprise you. It's the Browns and

1138
00:51:55,080 --> 00:51:57,960
Speaker 4: the Saints, right. The problem is the numbers here are outrageous.

1139
00:51:57,960 --> 00:52:00,960
Speaker 4: The Browns are plus three forty to be winless after

1140
00:52:01,040 --> 00:52:06,560
Speaker 4: five games. Here's where the Browns play Bengals, Ravens, Packers, Lions, Vikings.

1141
00:52:06,800 --> 00:52:10,080
Speaker 4: You're like more than a touchdown underdog in all those games.

1142
00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:12,000
Speaker 4: You're plus three forty to lose them.

1143
00:52:12,000 --> 00:52:12,040
Speaker 1: Mo.

1144
00:52:12,400 --> 00:52:17,960
Speaker 4: I'm taking that every day. The Saints go Cardinals, Niners, Seahawks, Bills.

1145
00:52:18,960 --> 00:52:20,719
Speaker 4: Then they get to host the Giants in Week five.

1146
00:52:20,760 --> 00:52:22,960
Speaker 4: I wish you only had a week four for that one,

1147
00:52:23,200 --> 00:52:25,400
Speaker 4: but it's plus four fifty, so maybe the Giants are

1148
00:52:25,440 --> 00:52:27,600
Speaker 4: giving me a little extra boost in there. I think

1149
00:52:27,680 --> 00:52:30,080
Speaker 4: those can both hit. And then Evan, I think you'll

1150
00:52:30,160 --> 00:52:32,080
Speaker 4: like this one because we talked about this team starting

1151
00:52:32,080 --> 00:52:35,359
Speaker 4: out slow. The Bucks winless in the first five is

1152
00:52:35,400 --> 00:52:38,520
Speaker 4: eighteen to one longer because the Bucks are supposed to

1153
00:52:38,560 --> 00:52:43,120
Speaker 4: be good. Bob Go Falcons, Texans, then the Jets, but

1154
00:52:43,239 --> 00:52:45,400
Speaker 4: it is a short rest week and it is in

1155
00:52:45,520 --> 00:52:49,799
Speaker 4: New York, and then Philadelphia and Seattle. So the Jets one,

1156
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:52,680
Speaker 4: that's tricky. Actually that's a home game for Tampa Bay,

1157
00:52:52,760 --> 00:52:54,799
Speaker 4: so it's three on the road, and then the home

1158
00:52:54,840 --> 00:52:57,520
Speaker 4: game Philly. That's tough, and the home game Jets the

1159
00:52:57,520 --> 00:53:00,560
Speaker 4: most winnable one, but if they miss Worth and start

1160
00:53:00,600 --> 00:53:03,799
Speaker 4: out really poorly, maybe that's in play. And then two

1161
00:53:03,920 --> 00:53:07,600
Speaker 4: long shot fast future players for you. These are through

1162
00:53:07,640 --> 00:53:10,279
Speaker 4: four weeks. Now. I don't know why we switched at DraftKings,

1163
00:53:10,320 --> 00:53:13,040
Speaker 4: but that's what we're doing. Who are your yardage leaders

1164
00:53:13,040 --> 00:53:16,640
Speaker 4: after four weeks? Two? For you, if you're a Saints fan,

1165
00:53:16,719 --> 00:53:19,640
Speaker 4: great news. I have a positive bet for you. I

1166
00:53:19,760 --> 00:53:23,720
Speaker 4: finally got to a good Saints bet. Spencer Ratler passing

1167
00:53:23,800 --> 00:53:27,480
Speaker 4: yardage leader through four weeks. Why because he's gonna be

1168
00:53:27,560 --> 00:53:31,400
Speaker 4: passing all game. You suck, You're terrible. Your team can't

1169
00:53:31,440 --> 00:53:34,480
Speaker 4: do anything, and you're playing the Cardinals, the Niners, the Seahawks,

1170
00:53:34,520 --> 00:53:36,239
Speaker 4: and the Bills. You're gonna lose. Play one hundred so

1171
00:53:36,360 --> 00:53:39,200
Speaker 4: pass past pass all the time. He's one hundred and

1172
00:53:39,239 --> 00:53:42,200
Speaker 4: fifty to one, and he's probably gonna be starting this

1173
00:53:42,280 --> 00:53:44,800
Speaker 4: first month because Tyler Shuck isn't gonna be ready to

1174
00:53:44,800 --> 00:53:47,640
Speaker 4: play till he's a hundred so. Spencer Raller leading the

1175
00:53:47,719 --> 00:53:51,280
Speaker 4: league shockingly in yardage after a month, and then last

1176
00:53:51,320 --> 00:53:55,320
Speaker 4: one for me, Bronco's rookie RJ. Harvey to lead the

1177
00:53:55,400 --> 00:53:58,040
Speaker 4: league in rushing yards two hundred to one a month.

1178
00:53:58,040 --> 00:54:01,160
Speaker 4: Then look, we don't know yet. Is he gonna even

1179
00:54:01,200 --> 00:54:04,359
Speaker 4: get the job from JK. Dobbins? Is it split? Maybe

1180
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:07,360
Speaker 4: it takes a couple of weeks. Titans Colts to start out.

1181
00:54:07,719 --> 00:54:10,799
Speaker 4: They're pretty tough run defenses. Don't love that. Guess what

1182
00:54:11,120 --> 00:54:14,520
Speaker 4: Week three and four? That's the bet Week three Chargers,

1183
00:54:14,520 --> 00:54:17,240
Speaker 4: Week four, Bengals. Hey have you seen the run defense

1184
00:54:17,239 --> 00:54:19,839
Speaker 4: for those teams? Because I haven't either, And Rgie Harvey

1185
00:54:19,880 --> 00:54:22,160
Speaker 4: gets to play both of them, and it's two hundred

1186
00:54:22,200 --> 00:54:24,680
Speaker 4: to one, and I love this BET's my favorite of

1187
00:54:24,680 --> 00:54:28,040
Speaker 4: this group. Fast future is everybody's doing it all right.

1188
00:54:28,080 --> 00:54:31,759
Speaker 1: So I naturally gravitated to the touchdown market, and I

1189
00:54:31,800 --> 00:54:36,319
Speaker 1: went to most receiving touchdowns after Week four and my

1190
00:54:36,440 --> 00:54:38,960
Speaker 1: pick for that was George Kittle. You can get that

1191
00:54:39,040 --> 00:54:41,719
Speaker 1: right now at DraftKings at thirty five to one. And

1192
00:54:41,719 --> 00:54:43,600
Speaker 1: part of the reason why I went with Kittle here is,

1193
00:54:44,400 --> 00:54:46,960
Speaker 1: obviously we know but the Brandon Ayuk injury, Juwan Jennings

1194
00:54:47,000 --> 00:54:49,480
Speaker 1: might be dealing with a little something. Ricky Piersoll, I'm

1195
00:54:49,520 --> 00:54:52,600
Speaker 1: not sure is proven enough to be a touchdown threat

1196
00:54:52,640 --> 00:54:54,840
Speaker 1: on that front. But the reason why I went with Kittle,

1197
00:54:55,200 --> 00:54:56,920
Speaker 1: he's because he's one of the few tight ends in

1198
00:54:56,960 --> 00:55:00,560
Speaker 1: the NFL that thrives against both man and zone coverages.

1199
00:55:00,640 --> 00:55:02,800
Speaker 1: And he's a big red zone target for Brock Purty

1200
00:55:02,880 --> 00:55:05,560
Speaker 1: finished in the top five last year targets inside the

1201
00:55:05,600 --> 00:55:07,560
Speaker 1: ten yard line, and he was third in the NFL

1202
00:55:07,560 --> 00:55:10,600
Speaker 1: in touchdowns inside the ten. And if the Niners run

1203
00:55:10,680 --> 00:55:13,480
Speaker 1: game isn't working with Christian McCaffrey, I know that Purdy

1204
00:55:13,520 --> 00:55:16,319
Speaker 1: will look for Kittle early and often we saw and

1205
00:55:16,360 --> 00:55:19,040
Speaker 1: we've seen runs as well over four game stretches with

1206
00:55:19,080 --> 00:55:21,720
Speaker 1: Brock Purty at quarterback. I mean, we've seen a seven

1207
00:55:21,800 --> 00:55:24,840
Speaker 1: touchdown in four game streak. We've seen a five touchdown

1208
00:55:24,840 --> 00:55:27,000
Speaker 1: in four game streak. I just think at this price point,

1209
00:55:27,760 --> 00:55:30,359
Speaker 1: I like Kittle the most from an upside standpoint because

1210
00:55:30,360 --> 00:55:31,640
Speaker 1: when you look at some of the guys that are

1211
00:55:31,640 --> 00:55:34,240
Speaker 1: around him at that price range, you got like Jerry Judy,

1212
00:55:34,520 --> 00:55:37,840
Speaker 1: George Pickens, Zay Flowers. None of those guys really offered

1213
00:55:37,840 --> 00:55:40,520
Speaker 1: what I would consider touchdown upside. So I think George

1214
00:55:40,600 --> 00:55:43,000
Speaker 1: Kittle at thirty five to one is my favorite bet

1215
00:55:43,040 --> 00:55:44,440
Speaker 1: for that. Evan take us home.

1216
00:55:44,480 --> 00:55:46,960
Speaker 2: What do you like for some fast futures?

1217
00:55:48,080 --> 00:55:50,080
Speaker 3: So I will backtrack on some of the ones that

1218
00:55:50,120 --> 00:55:52,399
Speaker 3: you guys said that I like. So when they talk

1219
00:55:52,440 --> 00:55:55,560
Speaker 3: about wins through five weeks, which is available at a

1220
00:55:55,600 --> 00:56:00,319
Speaker 3: few different places, I took Washington to have exactly twos

1221
00:56:00,719 --> 00:56:02,440
Speaker 3: through five games, which would put them at two and

1222
00:56:02,600 --> 00:56:05,600
Speaker 3: three just quickly. At their schedule home against the Giants,

1223
00:56:05,640 --> 00:56:08,000
Speaker 3: I assume that would be one at Green Bay as

1224
00:56:08,000 --> 00:56:10,239
Speaker 3: a loss at home against the Raiders would be two,

1225
00:56:10,640 --> 00:56:14,120
Speaker 3: then at Atlanta and at the Chargers so anything goes

1226
00:56:14,320 --> 00:56:16,359
Speaker 3: you know, astray there, there's a way to get there.

1227
00:56:16,400 --> 00:56:19,160
Speaker 3: But two wins four to one. I think that's a

1228
00:56:19,160 --> 00:56:22,719
Speaker 3: good bet. I like both. So Brandon didn't Brandon Joman

1229
00:56:22,719 --> 00:56:24,440
Speaker 3: to mention your tight end Beck because I was one

1230
00:56:24,480 --> 00:56:24,920
Speaker 3: of mine.

1231
00:56:25,120 --> 00:56:27,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, I just had Travis Kelcey four to one,

1232
00:56:27,640 --> 00:56:31,880
Speaker 4: forty to one as touchdowns leader. Look, Taylor, congratulations, we

1233
00:56:31,920 --> 00:56:34,359
Speaker 4: know you're listening. Let's just give our guy a month.

1234
00:56:34,400 --> 00:56:36,160
Speaker 4: I don't know if Travis has a whole year in

1235
00:56:36,280 --> 00:56:37,920
Speaker 4: him still, but give him a month and he can

1236
00:56:37,960 --> 00:56:39,239
Speaker 4: catch some touchdowns. That's it.

1237
00:56:39,280 --> 00:56:39,799
Speaker 2: That's the bet.

1238
00:56:40,000 --> 00:56:42,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree Kelsey forty to one, Kittle thirty five

1239
00:56:42,880 --> 00:56:45,520
Speaker 3: to one. Both make complete sense, especially Rice out now

1240
00:56:45,560 --> 00:56:48,480
Speaker 3: at the beginning of the season, makes you know healthy.

1241
00:56:48,880 --> 00:56:51,560
Speaker 3: I love it a lot. So the other three bets

1242
00:56:51,840 --> 00:56:55,239
Speaker 3: most rushing touchdowns after four weeks, I've got two running backs.

1243
00:56:55,239 --> 00:56:58,680
Speaker 3: I got eight. Chen and James Connor both just have

1244
00:56:59,000 --> 00:57:03,200
Speaker 3: very very good running back matchups, So I think there's

1245
00:57:03,280 --> 00:57:06,520
Speaker 3: value there on both sides. And then from a passing standpoint,

1246
00:57:06,840 --> 00:57:10,880
Speaker 3: pass defense pretty poorous when you talk about Jacksonville early.

1247
00:57:11,000 --> 00:57:14,560
Speaker 3: I like Trevor Lawrence for touchdowns and yards touchdowns is

1248
00:57:14,600 --> 00:57:17,160
Speaker 3: thirty to one. Yards is about twenty five to one.

1249
00:57:17,520 --> 00:57:20,959
Speaker 3: But if I look quickly over here, they start Carolina

1250
00:57:21,240 --> 00:57:23,600
Speaker 3: and the Bengals, I don't think I need to say

1251
00:57:23,680 --> 00:57:24,120
Speaker 3: much else.

1252
00:57:25,120 --> 00:57:25,320
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1253
00:57:25,320 --> 00:57:27,280
Speaker 1: The ah Chan one, I think is interesting because from

1254
00:57:27,320 --> 00:57:31,920
Speaker 1: a touchdown per touch standpoint, he is otherworldly. It's just

1255
00:57:31,960 --> 00:57:34,000
Speaker 1: a lot of the time it's an injury thing with him, right,

1256
00:57:34,040 --> 00:57:36,800
Speaker 1: And I think Devon a Chan is so explosive, like

1257
00:57:36,840 --> 00:57:40,240
Speaker 1: he could easily have this category one by week two,

1258
00:57:40,280 --> 00:57:41,840
Speaker 1: like where you could have like a three touchdown game

1259
00:57:41,880 --> 00:57:44,439
Speaker 1: and then another another two touchdown games. So I love

1260
00:57:44,480 --> 00:57:46,800
Speaker 1: the upside for a Chan, even though I do think

1261
00:57:47,440 --> 00:57:50,280
Speaker 1: as the season goes that Dolphins offense is going to

1262
00:57:50,320 --> 00:57:50,680
Speaker 1: fall off.

1263
00:57:50,680 --> 00:57:51,880
Speaker 3: Cliff all right, Yeah.

1264
00:57:51,760 --> 00:57:54,960
Speaker 1: Let's now we got to go through this because between

1265
00:57:55,000 --> 00:57:57,640
Speaker 1: part one and part two we've given out now over

1266
00:57:57,680 --> 00:58:01,640
Speaker 1: one hundred bets. There was fifty bets just on this one. Brandon,

1267
00:58:01,840 --> 00:58:04,760
Speaker 1: let's narrow it down. What are your favorite bets from

1268
00:58:04,800 --> 00:58:05,720
Speaker 1: this podcast today?

1269
00:58:05,760 --> 00:58:08,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, so just from this one, Patriots one Bills two

1270
00:58:08,760 --> 00:58:11,520
Speaker 4: in the division exact outcome plus seven to fifty. I

1271
00:58:11,560 --> 00:58:15,520
Speaker 4: love that one. Love that division Parlay, Texans Eagles, Chiefs

1272
00:58:15,560 --> 00:58:18,520
Speaker 4: all three at plus six thirty three at FanDuel and

1273
00:58:18,560 --> 00:58:21,720
Speaker 4: then those three rushing touchdown bets. I liked all three.

1274
00:58:21,760 --> 00:58:23,240
Speaker 4: I'm not gonna pick one of them. I'm gonna play

1275
00:58:23,280 --> 00:58:26,640
Speaker 4: them all. Roshawn Johnson, Nick Chubb and r J Harvey

1276
00:58:26,680 --> 00:58:29,120
Speaker 4: all one hundred to one or longer. And that rochean

1277
00:58:29,240 --> 00:58:30,800
Speaker 4: Bears leader as well at forty to one.

1278
00:58:31,120 --> 00:58:33,840
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna stick with the touchdown and interception markets.

1279
00:58:33,840 --> 00:58:37,640
Speaker 1: Brock Bauers most Raiders touchdowns at ten to one, and

1280
00:58:37,760 --> 00:58:42,280
Speaker 1: Goff Jared Goff that is most interceptions eighteen to one.

1281
00:58:42,600 --> 00:58:44,960
Speaker 1: Evan take us home. What are your favorite bets that

1282
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Speaker 1: you gave out.

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Speaker 3: Genos so in this Justice podcast the genoswith interception bet

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Speaker 3: Zach Taylor coach fired Bet. I think, let me look

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Speaker 3: at this for a second. The team touchdown bets. I

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Speaker 3: really like that, brock Bauers bet that justin Jefferson Bett,

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Speaker 3: I think are probably and the Nick Chub that we're

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Speaker 3: probably my three favorite on the touchdown markets and then

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Speaker 3: the ech hand stuff to lead the league and the

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Speaker 3: first four weeks. I just think there's a real high

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Speaker 3: upside there when you know Tyreek Hill might disappear at

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Speaker 3: some point, for sure.

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Speaker 1: All right, Well that'll do it. Thank you for listening

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Speaker 1: to part two of our NFL Exotics episode. If you

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00:59:20,240 --> 00:59:23,080
Speaker 1: miss part one, it's available now in the Action Network

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00:59:23,080 --> 00:59:25,560
Speaker 1: podcast speed My thanks to Brandon and Evan for joining me,

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00:59:25,760 --> 00:59:28,680
Speaker 1: and we'll have much more NFL betting content in the days, weeks,

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Speaker 1: and months to come, so make sure you subscribe to

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Speaker 1: the podcast.

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00:59:31,480 --> 00:59:32,400
Speaker 2: Check out the video.

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00:59:32,280 --> 00:59:35,040
Speaker 1: Version as well on the Action Network YouTube page, and

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Speaker 1: don't forget to download the Action Network app if you

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Speaker 1: have it yet, and use promo code Pod twenty. We're

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Speaker 1: twenty dollars off a year of Action pro I want

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Speaker 1: to thank you for joining us today on the Action

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00:59:44,720 --> 01:00:05,600
Speaker 1: Network podcast both shows. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

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Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

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