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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by bet three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today

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Speaker 1: is our Tuesday Super Bowl Preview episode. I am Chad Millman,

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Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 2: Listen.

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Speaker 1: We've been doing some incredible analysis all across the Action

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Speaker 1: Network the past ten days. Loads of props, opinions on

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Speaker 1: the sides, a steady stream of support for value on betting.

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Speaker 1: Will there be overtime? Yes, that one of our guests,

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Speaker 1: Nick Giffen, has been promoting.

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Speaker 2: All week long.

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Speaker 1: On Thursday, Simon and I will finalize our bets. Today.

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Speaker 1: We are going to dig very deep on mostly props

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Speaker 1: with two of the most respected player projectionists in the business.

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Speaker 1: First up, Chris ray BONI just wrapped up his sixth

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Speaker 1: season of the oft mentioned weekly NFL betting preview on

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Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast. Alongside the King of Degeneration, Stucky.

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Speaker 1: Raybon also is a regular on our Sunday morning panel show,

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Speaker 1: Convince Me. We're also joined, as I said, by Luck

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Speaker 1: Rankings architect Nick Giffen. Along with the Sunday six Pack

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Speaker 1: and Raybon and Stucky might be the second most referenced

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Speaker 1: brand and name in the Favorites Universe the multi Universe.

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Speaker 1: Nick is part of our predictive analytics team and more importantly,

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Speaker 1: host of the coolest show We do Bet What Happens

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Speaker 1: Live with Doctor Nick. At the end of today's episode,

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Speaker 1: we will announce the winner of the Favorites Podcast Bet

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Speaker 1: three six five super Bowl prop contest will reveal which

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Speaker 1: listeners prop Bet is now up and ready for wagering.

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Speaker 2: On BET three sixty five plus.

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Speaker 1: We'll hear from the winner of the contest himself, Matt

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Speaker 1: Mitchell sat down with the winner. Before we get to

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Speaker 1: Chris and Nick. Let's bring in my co host, my bff,

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Speaker 1: my companion, my compadre, professional better back on the East Coast,

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Speaker 1: Simon Hunter Eto, So I'm in chat.

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Speaker 3: How are we doing?

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Speaker 4: Brother?

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Speaker 2: Brother?

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Speaker 1: You've been on the East Coast for about forty eight

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Speaker 1: hours maybe, and you've already caught a cold.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: If I was gonna say if that, yeah, as soon

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Speaker 4: as I got back to New Jersey. I think it

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Speaker 4: was twenty eight degrees when I landed, and obviously I

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Speaker 4: wasn't ready for it. I am sick. Thank god it's

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Speaker 4: not COVID, but yeah, it's it's rough when you're sick.

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Speaker 4: And you're getting used to back to being cold.

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Speaker 5: Chat.

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Speaker 4: I think you remember whenever you go in you call back,

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Speaker 4: it's always like, ah, why don't we live in the Northeast,

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Speaker 4: But this is this is the place we love, the

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Speaker 4: place we like to.

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Speaker 1: Live, Simon. I usually at some point in the winter

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Speaker 1: just give up all pretense and by seven pm I'm

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Speaker 1: under the covers. And last night was the night. It

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Speaker 1: was seven pm, Like I finished dinner. I think my

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Speaker 1: kid was out. Stacey had just gotten home, and I'm like.

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Speaker 2: Growing up.

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Speaker 1: She's like already I was in bed and honestly, god,

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Speaker 1: my limbs were cold until eleven thirty, like just freezing.

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Speaker 1: And I, by the way, I don't even think I

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Speaker 1: left my house yesterday, that's how uncomfortable I was. My

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Speaker 1: statement was like, just turn up the heat. I'm like,

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Speaker 1: I can just get in bed, it'll be fine.

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Speaker 4: Well, if you're gonna if you're gonna be a hermit,

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Speaker 4: you know what you need to do. You need to

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Speaker 4: go get those new Apple goggles. I wouldn't got them, Chad.

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Speaker 4: It is true changing. It is the weirdest thing ever,

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Speaker 4: but it is the future is now, dude.

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Speaker 1: That's a whole separate podcast we're going to talk about.

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Speaker 1: I've been wondering who is going to buy those. As

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Speaker 1: a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three

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Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Hio, Virginia,

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Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in

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Speaker 2: I liked it.

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Speaker 1: Our sponsors are adding so many more states so fast.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, catch.

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Speaker 2: Every episode of The Favorites.

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Speaker 1: Live on YouTube for those enjoying it on YouTube. Don't

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Speaker 1: forget to give us a like and subscribe to the

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Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page. All right, we got Raybond, we

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Speaker 1: got Kiffin. They are masters of their craft. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: go through four or five picks, whatever it takes. Ray Bond,

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Speaker 1: You're up first. Give the people what they want, tell

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Speaker 1: them what they want to hear. What side are you

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Speaker 1: on in the game.

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Speaker 3: So, Chad, so y'all. I am on the Kansas City

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Speaker 3: Chiefs plus two, And I think there are a lot

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Speaker 3: of different small things that add up to where if

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Speaker 3: you just look at the full season numbers, you're gonna

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Speaker 3: get San Francisco should be the obvious favorite, and they are,

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Speaker 3: but I think the market's underrating a few things. I

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Speaker 3: think the biggest thing is that in that championship game,

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Speaker 3: Tony Hardman, sky Moore justin ross for their wide receivers,

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Speaker 3: they played one combined snap outside of the kneel downs,

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Speaker 3: and that was Mikole Hardman getting one snap. Those guys

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Speaker 3: have counted for eleven drops, seven interceptions on the year,

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Speaker 3: you know, completely inefficient in terms of a yards per

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Speaker 3: play bas It's four fumbles, two game losing plays, both

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Speaker 3: by Kadarius Tony. So if you look at Mahomes. His

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Speaker 3: yards per attempt just removing those four guys goes from

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Speaker 3: seven to seven and a half. Half a yard in

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Speaker 3: attempt is that's correlated directly with point differential. His interception

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Speaker 3: rate nearly cuts in half. And then the San Francisco

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Speaker 3: pass defense, since Mufungo went down on third downs, their

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Speaker 3: bottom three pass defense, like not a lot of people

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Speaker 3: are talking about that. They really struggled. And then you

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Speaker 3: also look at Okay, well Pacheco, he played ninety three

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Speaker 3: percent of the snatch last week's probably gonna do that again.

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Speaker 3: He averages four and a half yards per carry, just

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Speaker 3: under all other running backs that touched the ball for

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Speaker 3: the Chiefs this year averaged just under three and a

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Speaker 3: half yards per carry. So I don't think this Chiefs

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Speaker 3: offense is like everyone's saying this, you know, it's like

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Speaker 3: it's not the usual Chiefs offense. They're not good, but

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Speaker 3: they really trimmed all the fat and so I expect

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Speaker 3: them to do that again. And then on the other

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Speaker 3: side of the ball, Brot Perdy, you know, his four

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Speaker 3: worst games came in times where you know, Deebo is

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Speaker 3: hurt for part of them. I think Trent Williams is.

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Speaker 6: Hurt, but.

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Speaker 3: Nine of his twelve picks and eleven of his twenty

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Speaker 3: one turnover Where these bros came in four games and

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Speaker 3: it was that Cleveland game, Minnesota, Cincinnati, and Baltimore. What

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Speaker 3: did they all have? Great defensive coordinator's Jim Schwartz, Brian Flores,

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Speaker 3: Anarrumo who famously shut down Mahomes, Mike McDonald, the hottest

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Speaker 3: head coaching candidate, Steve Smagnolo might be better than all

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Speaker 3: those guys. Remember last year everyone was worried about Kansas

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Speaker 3: City's run Dy right come up against Philly number one

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Speaker 3: run offense. They held him to three point six yards

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Speaker 3: of carry in the Super Bowl on thirty two carries.

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Speaker 3: So I trust Spagnolo here. I think we should too.

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Speaker 3: And I mean Mahomes is a dog ten to one

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Speaker 3: and one against the spread, covering by seven and a

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Speaker 3: half points per game in the postseason. He's lost three

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Speaker 3: times in seventeen playoff games, twice to Tom Brady, once

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Speaker 3: to Joe Burrow and kind of like a freak game

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Speaker 3: where they screwed up before the end of the first

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Speaker 3: half and didn't get any points when they were on

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Speaker 3: like the one yard line and that's all his losses,

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Speaker 3: so now he's an underdog against rock Perdy. I'll take

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Speaker 3: the points all day.

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Speaker 1: Love it, love it, love it, Simon. You and I

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Speaker 1: are going to go so deep on this on Thursday,

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Speaker 1: breaking down this game and the sides and the total.

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Speaker 1: But here's a question I have for you before we

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Speaker 1: get to the next bet, which is we firmly believed

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Speaker 1: in the Ravens in the AFC title game. Well you did,

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Speaker 1: and partially because we expected the Ravens to do the

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Speaker 1: right thing, which was run the ball, run the ball,

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Speaker 1: run the ball. Raybun just made a really good point.

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Speaker 1: No Justin Ross, no Mikol Hardman, no Kadarius Tony, Like

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Speaker 1: they basically sat every guy who is terrible on the Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: They finally got around to that was that a one

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Speaker 1: time thing? Can we expect them to do again? What

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Speaker 1: is your take on that part of the scenario, us

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Speaker 1: betting on a side in which we have to count

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Speaker 1: on the coaches not.

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Speaker 6: Screwing it up. I agree with them.

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Speaker 4: Medescin feels like the Chiefs have found their identity in

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Speaker 4: the playoffs, right on offense, where it's like Mahomes, he's

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Speaker 4: not here to be everyone's buddy anymore. Like he was

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Speaker 4: nice to all these receivers all season. He never went

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Speaker 4: to the media about them. He kept trying to give

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Speaker 4: them touches and looks down the playoffs, he's kind of

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Speaker 4: cold blooded. Right, It's like, if I'm gonna go down,

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna go down my best guys. And his best

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Speaker 4: guys is who Kelsey and Rice. So it seems like

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Speaker 4: he's kind of shifted his focus where it's like I

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Speaker 4: don't mind forcing into my best guys if I know

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Speaker 4: I can trust them, and you know, we're gonna break

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Speaker 4: it down. So, like you said on Thursday, but it's

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Speaker 4: like the matchups, what they can do on offense, I mean,

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Speaker 4: Chris already nailed it. Like there's a bunch of stuff

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Speaker 4: they can do that can counter what the foy n

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Speaker 4: Ires want to do. And mean, you talked about it

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Speaker 4: last week, like this foreign ares defense, we both agreed

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Speaker 4: we don't think they're as good as people perceived, right,

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Speaker 4: Like there's a bunch of things you can attack on

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Speaker 4: this defense that during the regular season they kind of

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Speaker 4: got away with. The playoffs, you don't get away with that,

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Speaker 4: especially now we're given two weeks to Andy Reid to

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Speaker 4: prepare for this defense. So again, it all skews towards

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Speaker 4: this Chiefs team. The more you dive into it, the

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Speaker 4: more it feels a good skews to taking this plus

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Speaker 4: two Nick, do we.

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Speaker 7: Want to talk about the luck rankings?

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Speaker 1: I want to talk about whatever you want to talk about.

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Speaker 7: I think we should go to the luck rankings because, Okay,

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Speaker 7: I'm not betting the over on this game, but this

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Speaker 7: game is a luck over. It's important to at least

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Speaker 7: lead off with that. Because we just talked about the

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Speaker 7: side here, let's talk about the total. This game has

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Speaker 7: a luck total of plus two point six, which puts

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Speaker 7: it in luck over territory for the playoffs. And look

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Speaker 7: the luck rankings this year when we look at all

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Speaker 7: the sides and the totals, when it met certain thresholds

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Speaker 7: at certain points in the season, we would either bet

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Speaker 7: on a side if it was, you know, a luck

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Speaker 7: difference of twenty four or more, a luck gap of

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Speaker 7: fifty percent or more, or luck total if it hit

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Speaker 7: certain plus or minus thresholds at different times of the year.

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Speaker 7: The luck rankings went fifty thirty and three on the

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Speaker 7: Luck Rankings picks in the regular season, which is sixty

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Speaker 7: two and a half percent, and that's against closing lines, right,

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Speaker 7: So the luck rankings are beating closing lines in an

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Speaker 7: eighty three game sample size, and so far in the

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Speaker 7: playoffs they're right there too. We said fifty to thirty. Well,

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Speaker 7: if you just buy those by ten, five and three,

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Speaker 7: that's what we are in the playoffs. So sixty two

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Speaker 7: and a half percent in the playoffs as well, just

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Speaker 7: based off luck rankings picks versus closing lines, and so,

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Speaker 7: like I said, this is a luck total plus two

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Speaker 7: point six in the playoffs. That's enough to be a

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Speaker 7: luck over. Normally we want at least five in the

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Speaker 7: regular season. But because we have even more data, right

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Speaker 7: we accumulate weeks thirteen, fourteen, fifteen, sixteen, et cetera, we

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Speaker 7: can start to narrow those thresholds down even further to

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Speaker 7: show what truly is luck from variants, and luck totals

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Speaker 7: above plus one point six are ten and three to

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Speaker 7: the over the last six years in the playoffs, and

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Speaker 7: luck totals below minus one point six, so that one

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Speaker 7: point six number is pretty key, are twenty two and

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Speaker 7: seven to the under last six years in the playoffs.

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Speaker 7: So combined, if it's beyond an absolute value of one

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Speaker 7: point six, then it's thirty two and ten. The luck

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Speaker 7: totals are thirty two and ten to the respective direction

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Speaker 7: over the last six years. That's over seventy five percent

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Speaker 7: in the playoffs last six years, so pretty solid sample

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Speaker 7: size there to forty two games. If we just look

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Speaker 7: at the Super Bowl, four of the last five Super

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Speaker 7: Bowls have actually had luck totals below minus two and

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Speaker 7: a half, so there were luck unders and all four

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Speaker 7: of those Super Bowls did stay under. So the luck

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Speaker 7: rankings are four to zero in the Super Bowl. So

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Speaker 7: this one is.

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Speaker 6: A luck over right.

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Speaker 7: We're above that one point six number at two point

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Speaker 7: six even, and that's broken down by Kansas City's luck

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Speaker 7: team total plus two point seven five and San Francisco's

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Speaker 7: luck team total minus zero point one to nine. So

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Speaker 7: Kansas City actually makes up the bulk of this potential

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Speaker 7: to go over, which makes them the unlucky team in

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Speaker 7: this matchup. That goes right along with what Ray Bahn

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Speaker 7: was talking about as well. They've been slightly more unlucky

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Speaker 7: this year the Kansas City Chiefs have. And so when

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Speaker 7: I do it all out, when I do like my

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Speaker 7: recency weighted schedule adjusted expected scores right, and the expected

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Speaker 7: scores or the crux behind the luck rankings. They're saying,

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Speaker 7: you know, maybe a game was forty to fifteen or something,

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Speaker 7: but the expected score was actually thirty to twenty. Then

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Speaker 7: is a little closer than you know, a twenty five

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Speaker 7: point blowout. Maybe it only should have been a ten

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Speaker 7: point game. So the recent schedule justed expected scores have

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Speaker 7: this set around forty seven to forty seven and a half,

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Speaker 7: so pretty close to right in line with what's out there.

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Speaker 7: So I haven't made a play on the total. But

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Speaker 7: for the luck ranking purposes, of course, we are grading

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Speaker 7: this as a luck over against whatever the total close

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Speaker 7: is at all.

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Speaker 1: Right, couple questions. Number one why because I've already bet

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Speaker 1: the under, and so this makes me sad because I

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Speaker 1: have done fairly well betting on luck overs and unders

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Speaker 1: this year. Historically I have been a terrible totals better.

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Speaker 1: You can look in the app, you can see my

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Speaker 1: record and you can see that, like totals were not

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Speaker 1: a place where I was performing well except this year.

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Speaker 1: Because I just decided, if it's a luck ranking total,

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Speaker 1: I'm betting it. So I'm disappointed you've hurt my feelings. Simon,

280
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Speaker 1: Oh wait, what is your expected score? You said Kansas

281
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Speaker 1: City is plus two point seventy five. So where do

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Speaker 1: you have, like a popular prop is going to be

283
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Speaker 1: Kansas City total points scored.

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Speaker 2: Where do you have it versus the market?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, so I.

286
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Speaker 7: Would break Kansas City to go over their team totals.

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Speaker 7: So you know, if you're looking at team totals here,

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Speaker 7: I think Kansas City. Instead of betting the total, why

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Speaker 7: don't you just take the Kansas City team total over.

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Speaker 7: Because when we combine the forty nine Ers defense with

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Speaker 7: the Kansas City Chiefs offense, what has happened is the

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Speaker 7: forty nine Ers have been a little lucky to hold

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Speaker 7: teams to below scoring compared to what was expected in

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Speaker 7: the games they played, just based off the play by

295
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Speaker 7: play data we ran these games over, you know, ten

296
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Speaker 7: hundred thousand times. San Francisco got a little lucky to

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Speaker 7: allow teams to score a little less than expected. In

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Speaker 7: Kansas City, on the flip side, scored a little less

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Speaker 7: than expected in their games. So overall, it's a combination

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Speaker 7: of both San Francisco's defense and Kansas City's offense that

301
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Speaker 7: just came in a little under on scoring, which means

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Speaker 7: versus expectation, which means if they meet expectation, we expect

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Speaker 7: the books will probably be setting Kansas City's team total

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Speaker 7: a little bit too low. So I actually think that

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Speaker 7: would be my favorite kind of way to play the

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Speaker 7: luck rankings in this game.

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Speaker 1: Simon, we've already bet the under. What are we doing here?

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Speaker 3: I let it ride.

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Speaker 4: I mean we talk all the time. You're bet in

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Speaker 4: Super Bowl, you're betting what you believe is the game script, right,

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Speaker 4: You're kind of projecting out.

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Speaker 3: All my props are tied to it.

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Speaker 4: It's just like last year, me and you like the

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Speaker 4: Eagles and the over all my bets were tied to that,

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Speaker 4: and same with this year. It's like, if the Chiefs

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Speaker 4: again they could win with this being a shootout, is

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Speaker 4: that likely Chad for us? No, if this becomes a shootout,

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Speaker 4: that's going to favor this forty nine Ers team. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: the way I projected out, I have it at forty six.

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Speaker 4: So obviously I like this number toward the under. The

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Speaker 4: crazy thing I thought this week was a couple of

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Speaker 4: really sharp books moved to forty eight and they got

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Speaker 4: slammed with under money. So they quickly moved back down

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Speaker 4: to forty seven and a half, So no surprise, your Chad.

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Speaker 4: The public they liked the over, the professionals like the under.

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Speaker 4: And it's what we talked about, right, the two best

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Speaker 4: scoring defenses, so we project out that these defenses played

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Speaker 4: pretty well in this game.

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Speaker 6: So yeah, the fact that I was hoping it was.

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Speaker 4: Gonna get to forty nine or forty eight in the half,

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Speaker 4: and it's just it doesn't feel like it's ever going

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Speaker 4: to get their chat. It just feels like the professional

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Speaker 4: money will come in. So won't be shocked if we

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Speaker 4: see that's just stay at forty seven and a half

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Speaker 4: by the time the game kicks off.

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Speaker 7: And I like, I want to say to Simon's points here,

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Speaker 7: when it opened it forty eight, right, I said, based

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Speaker 7: off of my schedule adjusted expected scores and stuff, which

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Speaker 7: is using the Luck Rankings data, the expected scores that

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Speaker 7: I had around between forty seven and forty seven and

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Speaker 7: a half. So if you bet the opener under forty eight,

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Speaker 7: I would have been, you know, leaning with you guys

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Speaker 7: as well. So just because the Luck Rankings say over,

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Speaker 7: doesn't mean I'm not willing to go against my own

345
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Speaker 7: luck rankings either.

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Speaker 1: Well, that's good to know because I'm going against you

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Speaker 1: and the luck rankings six to my stomach. So Raybon,

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Speaker 1: it's interesting to me that Simon says all of these bets,

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Speaker 1: you know, it ends up being the bets you like

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Speaker 1: the most, play to the script that you expect the

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Speaker 1: game to be. So no surprise to me that one

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Speaker 1: of your favorite props.

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Speaker 3: Is Patti Mahomes not to throw a pick. It's about

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Speaker 3: even money. I'm both sides right now, so I know

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Speaker 3: you like that, Chad. I know it's not convinced me,

356
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Speaker 3: but I figure I'll try to convince you to take this.

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Speaker 3: So Mahome's interregular and interceptions you generally, you know you're

358
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Speaker 3: gonna use some large sample data too, because there is

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Speaker 3: a lot of kind of up and down with that.

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Speaker 3: But regular season, Patrick Mahomes throws a pick exactly half

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Speaker 3: the time half of his game forty eight to ninety six.

362
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Speaker 3: In the postseason that drops to four of seventeen. He's

363
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Speaker 3: thrown a pick in and he's playing some of the

364
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Speaker 3: best ball of his life. And we kind of talked

365
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Speaker 3: about it when because you're going with Kelsey and Rice,

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Speaker 3: like Simon mentioned, those are two pretty like low to

367
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Speaker 3: intermediate averaged up to target guys, so they're very efficient

368
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Speaker 3: targets that like Rashid Rice is a wide receiver catching

369
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Speaker 3: six balls a game, but his average up to target

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Speaker 3: is like five yards downfield. So Mahomes is not really

371
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Speaker 3: putting the ball in Harm's way obvious when you throw

372
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Speaker 3: to Kelsey, you're not putting the ball in harms way.

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Speaker 3: And then I talked about seven interceptions, you know, Mahomes

374
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Speaker 3: through fourteen on a year. Seven were to the four

375
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Speaker 3: guys that played a combined one snap last week and

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Speaker 3: may not play at all this week. So I don't

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Speaker 3: think mahomes true interception rate is being factored into the market.

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Speaker 3: They're more just kind of looking at this year, which

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Speaker 3: was like a career high because of all those guys,

380
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Speaker 3: and then even lately because Mahomes, you know, they said, hey,

381
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Speaker 3: we got a wake up call after that Raider game.

382
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Speaker 3: We kind of switched up our offense. We whittled it down.

383
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Speaker 3: Mahomes do hasn't had a turnover worthy throw according to PFF,

384
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Speaker 3: a turn play period that includes like fumbles or anything.

385
00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:27,800
Speaker 3: In four games. That's the longest stretch of his career,

386
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Speaker 3: including twenty eighteen when he was just playing on another

387
00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:32,879
Speaker 3: planet that spans you know, one hundred and thirty two

388
00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:35,040
Speaker 3: attempt one hundred and forty seven dropbacks and then I

389
00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:35,679
Speaker 3: got a rest.

390
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Speaker 5: That.

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00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:41,280
Speaker 3: So, Patrick Mahomes since he came in, since he came

392
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Speaker 3: the starter, has had the most interceptions overturned by the

393
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Speaker 3: refs by five times more than any other quarterback. Like

394
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Speaker 3: it's literally like Mahomes has like fifty of these things

395
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Speaker 3: and no other quarterback has even ten. So if there's

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Speaker 3: anyone likely to get a little bit of help, well,

397
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:04,880
Speaker 3: holden call you know, a DPI come out late that

398
00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:08,560
Speaker 3: overturns the pick is going to be patty. So I

399
00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:10,520
Speaker 3: like Mahomes not to throw a pick. I'll about this

400
00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:12,560
Speaker 3: up to about minus one fifty. I think it's more

401
00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:15,240
Speaker 3: like sixty forty that he doesn't throw a pick, and

402
00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:17,440
Speaker 3: the market has it pretty even right now, all.

403
00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:21,480
Speaker 1: Right, doctor Nick, before we take a break here for

404
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Speaker 1: a second, do you think that because Mahomes has played

405
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Speaker 1: so well that he plays, is he due for aggression?

406
00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:34,119
Speaker 7: Well, I wouldn't say he's due for regression, but I

407
00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:36,399
Speaker 7: would say, you know, I'm kind of in line with

408
00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:40,880
Speaker 7: Raybon here. I think he's probably not going to throw

409
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Speaker 7: an interception just based off of what we've seen, all

410
00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:46,720
Speaker 7: the things raybon matched. I mean, look at those guys

411
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Speaker 7: that he's been throwing interceptions to that aren't going to

412
00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:50,240
Speaker 7: be playing. I think that's a huge part of it,

413
00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:51,919
Speaker 7: and I do agree we need to look at his

414
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Speaker 7: longer term average to kind of get where it is.

415
00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:58,400
Speaker 7: So that doesn't mean he's going to throw an interception

416
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Speaker 7: or not going to throw an interception. It's all I mean,

417
00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:03,440
Speaker 7: you know, if we played this game at gazillion times over,

418
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Speaker 7: I always go back to that, how many times would

419
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Speaker 7: he throw an interception? And that's how I always do

420
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Speaker 7: things as the math brain here. But I do think

421
00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:13,720
Speaker 7: if he throws an interception, it's going to be to

422
00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:18,960
Speaker 7: Travarius Ward, the San Francisco forty nine ers cornerback. And

423
00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:22,439
Speaker 7: going to Raybond's point here about longer term rates, if

424
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Speaker 7: we look at Mahomes's career, the number one place he

425
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Speaker 7: throws interceptions above expectation is to the right side of

426
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 7: the field, shorter right side especially, and so that's where

427
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:36,600
Speaker 7: Travari's Ward is covering because he's the forty nine ers

428
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:39,560
Speaker 7: left cornerback, which means it'll be on the right side

429
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Speaker 7: of the Chiefs offense, so he'll be guarding Marcuez Valdez, Scantling,

430
00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:46,119
Speaker 7: and Justin Watson a whole lot, which are probably the

431
00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:49,440
Speaker 7: guys you know that are going to be more likely

432
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Speaker 7: to be picked off if mahomes is thrown their way

433
00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:55,280
Speaker 7: then a guy like Rashie Reis or Travis Kelcey. So

434
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:58,040
Speaker 7: I like I wrote up my first bet I think

435
00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:00,400
Speaker 7: it was for the Super Bowl, was travarous Warden intertion

436
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:03,120
Speaker 7: ten to one. That's since been met down to plus

437
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 7: seven fifty. I think I still like it little thin

438
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:08,200
Speaker 7: value there at plus seven fifty. So you can like

439
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 7: both of them. You can like Mahome's not to throw

440
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:12,880
Speaker 7: an interception, but then if he does, also like Trevier's

441
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:14,360
Speaker 7: ward as well. So that's kind of where I'm heading.

442
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 1: Well, look, we're always looking for ways to hedge Simon.

443
00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 1: Can you name the fastest growing ticketing app in the

444
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:22,880
Speaker 1: United States?

445
00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:24,159
Speaker 5: Game Time?

446
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:27,480
Speaker 1: That's right, It's Game Time. I love Game Time for

447
00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:33,240
Speaker 1: two reasons. They still sponsored this show. I actually also

448
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,680
Speaker 1: use game Time all the time. They have amazing last

449
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:39,880
Speaker 1: minute deals including pro and college games.

450
00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:40,680
Speaker 2: No joke.

451
00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:45,239
Speaker 1: I just used game Time to buy tickets to go

452
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:51,600
Speaker 1: see my alma mater, Indiana University play against Northwestern in Bloomington, Indiana.

453
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:54,440
Speaker 1: But I'm going to take it one step further. I'm

454
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:57,760
Speaker 1: opening the game Time app right now here. From my

455
00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:01,480
Speaker 1: house in Connecticut, in New New York City, I can

456
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 1: get in to see professional basketball. I can see the

457
00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:06,879
Speaker 1: nets for less than twenty bucks. I can see the

458
00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:11,080
Speaker 1: knicks for less than eighty bucks all tonight in New York.

459
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:13,879
Speaker 1: No matter where you live, download the game Time app.

460
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,320
Speaker 1: Get out have some fun this week.

461
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:17,040
Speaker 2: You deserve it.

462
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 1: You can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off your

463
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:23,400
Speaker 1: first purchase. Terms apply again. Just download the game Time

464
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 1: app and use code favorites for twenty dollars off your

465
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 1: first purchase. Last minute tickets lows prices guaranteed. All right, Nick,

466
00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:34,440
Speaker 1: you just gave us a bonus with savarious Ward, give

467
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:38,960
Speaker 1: us another one. You have something to say about Christian McCaffrey. Yeah,

468
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:42,840
Speaker 1: my favorite, my mind reading.

469
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:45,920
Speaker 7: We're on the favorites. This is my favorite Super Bowl

470
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 7: prop and that is Christian McCaffrey's first carry to go

471
00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 7: over three and a half yards. So we'll already either

472
00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:55,240
Speaker 7: have a bet one or lost, you know, within his

473
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:58,960
Speaker 7: first carry of the game. But you know, if we

474
00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 7: just look this year, he's cleared three and a half

475
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:04,720
Speaker 7: yards on the first carry in eleven of sixteen games

476
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:07,400
Speaker 7: including the playoffs this year in games where Trent Williams

477
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:09,480
Speaker 7: also played. I think that's important because we want to

478
00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:12,920
Speaker 7: make sure we're using the relevant offensive line here. And

479
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:15,879
Speaker 7: so that's the sixty eight point nine percent rate that

480
00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 7: he's gone over. Now, we don't want to use a

481
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:20,800
Speaker 7: sixteen carry sample size. That's not fair. So let's look

482
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:23,160
Speaker 7: at a larger sample size. Let's look at all rushes

483
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:27,440
Speaker 7: outside the red zone, not on fourth down with Trent

484
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 7: Williams this year. And I think that's fair because McCaffrey's

485
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 7: first carry is not going to be in the red zone.

486
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 7: Most likely, his first carry this year occurred no closer

487
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 7: than the opposing forty five yard line, and he didn't

488
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:41,280
Speaker 7: have a first carry on fourth down in the last

489
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 7: several years. So I think it's a fair sample size

490
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 7: in that case. If we just look at those rushes,

491
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:49,600
Speaker 7: he clears one hundred and sixteen out of two hundred

492
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:52,359
Speaker 7: and seventeen times with a median of four. So already

493
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 7: the medians longer than three and a half, and that's

494
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 7: fifty three point five percent. That equates the minus one fifteen.

495
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:01,600
Speaker 7: But I do you think that's maybe like the worst

496
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 7: case scenario, this number should be his minus one fifteen.

497
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 7: But I think if we narrow it down even further,

498
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:08,520
Speaker 7: we'll see it should be probably closer to minus one

499
00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 7: fifty if we look at the scripted plays, right, So

500
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 7: that's very often like the first fifteen or so offensive plays,

501
00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 7: and I've trimmed it down to the first twelve offensive plays,

502
00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 7: allowing for the fact that there could be a penalty

503
00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:21,359
Speaker 7: or two that kind of negates a play that would

504
00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:23,879
Speaker 7: have been scripted. So if we look at each team's

505
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 7: first twelve plays, I should say San Francisco's first twelve

506
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:30,680
Speaker 7: plays that they actually ran in each game, Christian McCaffrey

507
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 7: cleared it sixty percent of the time, thirty seven out

508
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:36,040
Speaker 7: of sixty two, and his median wasn't four yards. His

509
00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 7: median was five yards, So half the time he had

510
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 7: at least five yards on a carry. Now, if we

511
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:44,960
Speaker 7: just look at literally just the first three carries of

512
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 7: the game, he's cleared it sixty five percent of the time.

513
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:50,359
Speaker 7: So it seems like right off the bat, forty nine

514
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,239
Speaker 7: ers come out with a game plan to, you know,

515
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:56,680
Speaker 7: really let Christian McCaffrey shine. He's cleared it, like I said,

516
00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:58,720
Speaker 7: sixty five percent of time, thirty one out of forty

517
00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:01,879
Speaker 7: eight carries. Of the first three carries of the game,

518
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:05,679
Speaker 7: he has cleared three and a half yards. So and

519
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:07,240
Speaker 7: it also makes a lot of sense to look at

520
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 7: the beginning part of the game because what's happening in

521
00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:11,200
Speaker 7: the second half. The forty nine ers are getting big leads, right,

522
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 7: and so defenses can key in on the fact that

523
00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:15,159
Speaker 7: they know Christian McCaffrey is going to run at a

524
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 7: higher rate and limit his yards per carries. So I

525
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:20,480
Speaker 7: do think it makes a lot of sense to throw

526
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:22,720
Speaker 7: out a lot of that later game stuff, that second

527
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:25,680
Speaker 7: half stuff where defenses are kind of changing their game

528
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 7: plan because they know the forty nine ers are changing

529
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:30,240
Speaker 7: their game plan to be more run heavy. So I

530
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 7: think it's a fair sample to size to say this

531
00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:34,840
Speaker 7: is somewhere around a sixty percent chance of clearing or

532
00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:36,639
Speaker 7: getting it. I got it at minus one ten and

533
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:38,680
Speaker 7: since been bet to minus one fifteen. Still love it

534
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:41,439
Speaker 7: at minus one fifteen. Considering I have at least minus

535
00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:44,679
Speaker 7: one fifty as fair value, and we haven't even mentioned

536
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:47,879
Speaker 7: he's going against Kansas City. He's twenty seventh in defensive

537
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 7: rush DVA. That's five percent worse than the average team

538
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 7: Christian McCaffrey has faced this year.

539
00:26:54,920 --> 00:27:00,639
Speaker 1: Simon, I feel like I'm already looking for ways to

540
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:04,159
Speaker 1: bet on the Niners. That aren't ways to bet on

541
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 1: the Niners to win the game this field and that

542
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:11,920
Speaker 1: are on Christian McCaffrey. This feels like the perfect bet

543
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:12,760
Speaker 1: for someone like.

544
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:13,240
Speaker 6: Me right now.

545
00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:15,200
Speaker 4: He's also your boyfriend.

546
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:15,960
Speaker 6: You can't quit him.

547
00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:17,960
Speaker 4: You've been obsessed with this guy this whole season.

548
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 1: So I am I have for MVP. I think he

549
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 1: should have been MVP. I think he's I think he

550
00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:25,600
Speaker 1: might be the best offensive player in football. He's the

551
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:28,919
Speaker 1: most dynamic. He runs hard, he finds that holes he

552
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:31,479
Speaker 1: can catch out of the backfield. Nothing not to love

553
00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 1: about this guy.

554
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:34,680
Speaker 4: And Nick had me.

555
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 2: First thing.

556
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:36,439
Speaker 4: I thought he was gonna start off, I tell us

557
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:38,520
Speaker 4: to take tails. I was like, oh my gosh, he's

558
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 4: really gonna go coin flip here. But he pulled a

559
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:42,919
Speaker 4: fast one. He want first carry of the game. When

560
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 4: McCaffrey and just pick it back on what he said.

561
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:48,880
Speaker 4: The Chiefs they struggle to contacted running backs in the backfield.

562
00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:50,679
Speaker 4: They're like, I think they're thirty through twenty ninth in

563
00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:53,840
Speaker 4: the league at contacted running back behind the line of scrimmage.

564
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,199
Speaker 4: So right there, plays right into win Nick's talking though,

565
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:58,440
Speaker 4: It's like they don't. They're not the kind of guys

566
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:00,399
Speaker 4: that just grab guys down behind the line. Usually that

567
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:02,119
Speaker 4: a guy pick up a couple of yards before dragging

568
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 4: him down. So we talked about they have undersized linebackers.

569
00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:08,199
Speaker 4: Who's that benefit McCaffrey in this run blocking scheme? So

570
00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 4: me and you joked about before he came on chat

571
00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 4: if they run the ball forty times in this game,

572
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:14,920
Speaker 4: I swear the forty hours will somehow win this game.

573
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:17,440
Speaker 4: It's just that's the weakness, the glad weakness of this

574
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:20,560
Speaker 4: Chiefs team. So I'm fading a lot of props right

575
00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:23,720
Speaker 4: now in this fortyres team. But ones I had piggybacked

576
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,560
Speaker 4: Nick off of is I like the McCaffrey props and

577
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:29,240
Speaker 4: Debo props, like the Chiefs have struggle against guys in

578
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 4: the slot. Deebo runs out of the slot. I mean

579
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 4: his numbers are even juiced up to minus one twenty.

580
00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 4: I believe it's over fifty eight and a half receiving

581
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:38,480
Speaker 4: yards now. Still love it Like Deebo. These are the

582
00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:40,560
Speaker 4: kind of games he shines. It like the games that

583
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:43,320
Speaker 4: he isn't playing for tomorrow. Right, this is it. This

584
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:45,680
Speaker 4: is a perfect game for Deebo, the man that uses

585
00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 4: his body more physically than anyone else. So that's wrong

586
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:50,080
Speaker 4: that the forty nine ers like I don't want to

587
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 4: put too much money to them, Like you talked about,

588
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 4: we're heavy in the Chiefs here, but there's just tons

589
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 4: of value on this point Ris team that I can't

590
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 4: pass on. That's that's definitely one of them playing McCaffrey

591
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 4: playing Deebo. I love the value with those guys.

592
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 1: This week, all right, listen, I would like to run

593
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:10,240
Speaker 1: through MVPs for each of you. We've covered the side,

594
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:14,880
Speaker 1: we've covered the total, We've covered some fun props for

595
00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 1: mahomes from McCaffrey interceptions. Let's do a rundown of MVP

596
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:26,480
Speaker 1: long shots, MVP picks, Raybon.

597
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:27,200
Speaker 2: Let's start with you.

598
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with a guy in the Chiefs and

599
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 3: I think Nick is two and so and I like

600
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:33,440
Speaker 3: hedging both of these guys together because I think both

601
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 3: of them have a great shot. I'll go with the

602
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 3: more obvious one, that's Travis Kelce at fourteen to one.

603
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 3: So I think you're getting a little value on Kelsey

604
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 3: because we know over the last twenty years or so,

605
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:49,360
Speaker 3: a lot more pass catchers have one, you know, branch Edelman, Hines, Wards,

606
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 3: Antonio Holmes, Cooper Cup. So we're starting to see a

607
00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 3: lot of a lot more pass catchers win. And then

608
00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:57,719
Speaker 3: we know Kelsey scored an eight of the last nine

609
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 3: playoff games with Mahomes thirteen out of seven, and he's

610
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:04,320
Speaker 3: got eighteen touchdowns overall. So, uh, there's a possibility, you know,

611
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:06,840
Speaker 3: if he gets a touchdown. Remember last time in the

612
00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:09,160
Speaker 3: Super Bowl, the Chiefs put up thirty eight points. Last year,

613
00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:10,880
Speaker 3: Mahomes only had one hundred and eight two yards. He

614
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 3: had three scores. But you know, if Chelsey is able

615
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:16,440
Speaker 3: to put up a good you know, a good yardage

616
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:19,920
Speaker 3: total with a touchdown, it's possible that you know that

617
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 3: that Mahomes doesn't get it if the Chiefs win. Now,

618
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 3: you look at San Francisco. Their numbers have been good

619
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 3: against tight ends on the year, but there he haven't

620
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:29,480
Speaker 3: faced anyone the three tight ends. They faced Sam Laporta

621
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 3: nine catches for ninety seven on thirteen targets, Trey McBride

622
00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:36,000
Speaker 3: ten for one O two on eleven targets, and TJ.

623
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:39,240
Speaker 3: Hockinson eleven for eighty six on twelve targets. And then

624
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:42,280
Speaker 3: there is some precedent for like a legend like Mahomes

625
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 3: if the Chiefs wereld have win for to not get

626
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:46,720
Speaker 3: it because he's won two, right, he's won two super Bowl,

627
00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 3: he's won two MVPs. Well, Brady won two, and then

628
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:52,440
Speaker 3: when he won his third super Bowl, he on branch won,

629
00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:55,719
Speaker 3: It's that's his that's the past catchers. When Brady won

630
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 3: two more after that with the Patriots, then his third one,

631
00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:02,320
Speaker 3: Julian Edelman wins it. So maybe I don't. Maybe there's

632
00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 3: a little bit of voter for Tea coming in when

633
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:06,760
Speaker 3: we know Kelsey's the man of the hour now, you

634
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:09,480
Speaker 3: know with all the auto hoop loss around to him.

635
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:11,920
Speaker 3: So I think he's a I think he should be

636
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:15,440
Speaker 3: less than fourteen to one. I think I think he's more.

637
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:17,520
Speaker 3: He's a lot more in the mix here. But you're

638
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:19,640
Speaker 3: getting value because tight end is never one you're getting

639
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 3: value because San Francisco has been good against tight ends,

640
00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 3: and you've been getting value because I think the Chiefs

641
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 3: are A would have undervalued. So for all those reasons,

642
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:28,520
Speaker 3: I like Kelsey counter narrative.

643
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 1: There's no bigger fan of love than me. Everyone knows

644
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 1: I love love, huge fan of love, massive fan of

645
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:43,959
Speaker 1: the Travis Kelcey Taylor Swift storyline. I think that the

646
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:46,760
Speaker 1: they just seem happy, They seem genuinely like each other,

647
00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:49,720
Speaker 1: and he seems like a sweet guy I love for music.

648
00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:53,080
Speaker 1: I want them to be together forever. I do think.

649
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 1: I do think that sports writers are irascable, unsentimental group. Well,

650
00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 1: everyone think great Travis Kelcey career capstone. I think because

651
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 1: of Taylor Swift, they might vote against him.

652
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 2: That's what I think.

653
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:09,760
Speaker 1: And this is a narrative award. I'm just saying, no

654
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:13,240
Speaker 1: one sports writers the way I do. People will not

655
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 1: want to be heartwarming in this spot. Nick Niffin, what's

656
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 1: my alternative?

657
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:20,720
Speaker 7: Yeah, Well, I guess if you want to vote against

658
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 7: the Swift Kelsey narrative, then you're going to go to

659
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 7: the other option in this receiving game. And that's where

660
00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 7: shee Rice sixty to one. I got him seventy to one,

661
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:32,160
Speaker 7: he's still sixty one. Still love that value at sixty

662
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:34,960
Speaker 7: to one. I mean, if you like the MVP value

663
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 7: on Kelsey and I can't argue against Raybond there, then

664
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 7: you have to like Rashi Rice MVP at sixty one.

665
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:43,320
Speaker 7: Because if we compare the two, Rashet Rice has been

666
00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 7: better than Travis Kelcey in the second half of the

667
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:48,440
Speaker 7: year in this offense. Like if we look since Thanksgiving,

668
00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 7: targets per game Rashi Rice nine Travis Kelcey seven and

669
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:55,000
Speaker 7: a half explosive games, which I'm saying ninety plus yards

670
00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 7: because that's kind of the minimum yardage needed for a

671
00:32:57,240 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 7: receiver to win MVP right four Travis kelce two touchdowns

672
00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:06,480
Speaker 7: Rashier Rice four Travis kelce three because sometimes the MVP

673
00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 7: award is kind of a touchdown based award. So Rashi

674
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 7: Rice has been as good or better than Travis Kelcey

675
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:15,719
Speaker 7: since Thanksgiving. So I think there's a lot of sneaky

676
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:18,760
Speaker 7: value in taking Rashi Rice. We look, you know, raybon

677
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:20,920
Speaker 7: was mentioning all those receivers that have one. Let's just

678
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:22,320
Speaker 7: look at the last two which has occurred in the

679
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:25,480
Speaker 7: last five years. Cooper Cup two years ago and Edelman

680
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:29,720
Speaker 7: four or five years ago. Cooper Cup had eight catches

681
00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 7: on ten targets only ninety two yards. He didn't even

682
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:34,520
Speaker 7: crack the sentry mark, but he had two touchdowns, which

683
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:37,600
Speaker 7: I think put him over the top there. And then

684
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 7: Edelman he had ten catches on twelve targets for one

685
00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:42,920
Speaker 7: hundred and forty one yards, but he had no touchdowns.

686
00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 7: So those are within Rashi Rice's range of outcomes. He's

687
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:49,520
Speaker 7: put up numbers exactly like those other than the multi

688
00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:52,640
Speaker 7: touchdown game. But if he goes ten for twelve and

689
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 7: one touchdown, that is a very MVP worthy stat line.

690
00:33:57,160 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 7: And you know, I think that's a stat line that

691
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:02,800
Speaker 7: travel Kelsey He's only really met once since Thanksgiving, and

692
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 7: of course that was, you know, the most recent playoff

693
00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 7: game here in the Conference Championship. But Rashie Rice has

694
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:11,880
Speaker 7: met that stat line combined with hatches, yards and touchdowns

695
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:15,279
Speaker 7: like three times since Thanksgiving. Rashie Rice also he only

696
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:17,960
Speaker 7: lines up on the outside right side where he would

697
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 7: be facing Tarvariu's ward twenty percent of the time. And

698
00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:23,279
Speaker 7: I think Kansas City would be especially two weeks to

699
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:25,839
Speaker 7: plan would be smart to scheme him up away from

700
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:30,360
Speaker 7: Charvarious Ward even more, which could make this offense really Kelsey,

701
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:34,760
Speaker 7: Rashi Rice, and Pacheco focused with Mahomes of course dishing

702
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:37,400
Speaker 7: it out to those guys. So I think this becomes

703
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 7: a pretty concentrated offense, which means it becomes a pretty

704
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 7: concentrated MVP race at least if you look at Kansas

705
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:45,759
Speaker 7: City winning and then the offensive side of the ball.

706
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 7: Obviously we can't neglect the defense, but ideally if Kansas

707
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:51,920
Speaker 7: City wins, it's going to come from the offense. Another

708
00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:54,200
Speaker 7: guy who's in that same price range, George Kittle on

709
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 7: San Francisco's side of the ball, he has won extra mouth.

710
00:34:57,360 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 2: To deal with.

711
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:01,839
Speaker 7: Then you know, then she Rice has. He's got Rock Purty,

712
00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:05,400
Speaker 7: Christian McCaffrey, Deebo, Samuel Brandon, ayuk Gos four guys that

713
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:07,400
Speaker 7: he has to contend with. Rashi Rice mainly has three

714
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:10,440
Speaker 7: other offensive players like I mentioned, Mahomes, Kelsey, and Pacheco

715
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:13,799
Speaker 7: to contend with. So he's got less competition at a

716
00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:16,560
Speaker 7: similar price range as George Kittle. And then if we

717
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:20,560
Speaker 7: look at Travis Kelsey was down in the teens, very

718
00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:23,120
Speaker 7: similar stat line, very similar competition, level because they're on

719
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:26,279
Speaker 7: the same team. He's just so much longer. So you know,

720
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:27,920
Speaker 7: if I do some back to the Napkin math, we

721
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:29,680
Speaker 7: just look at the Chief's money line, that's like forty

722
00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:33,120
Speaker 7: five percent to win. If we say Mahomes wins it

723
00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:35,480
Speaker 7: seventy five percent of the time. Let's be generous there

724
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 7: and say Mahomes win at seventy five percent. If it's

725
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 7: split equally between Kelsey and Pacheco and Rashi Rice, then

726
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 7: that should put Rashi Rice around thirty to one. If

727
00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:46,040
Speaker 7: we say, well it should favorite Kelsey, then that would

728
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 7: put Rashi Rice around forty five to one. So I

729
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:50,680
Speaker 7: think anything longer than forty five to one is value.

730
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:55,239
Speaker 1: All right, Simon, we've got two Chiefs long shot MVPs.

731
00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 1: Are you going to close it out for us?

732
00:35:58,560 --> 00:35:58,759
Speaker 2: Yeah?

733
00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:00,000
Speaker 3: I call this the Cowhard?

734
00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:01,919
Speaker 4: Who is Cowhard's favorite player in this game?

735
00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:03,080
Speaker 2: Chad Patrick?

736
00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:03,680
Speaker 1: Mahomes.

737
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:06,719
Speaker 4: No, it's Sam Darnald. You've now ever watched that Man

738
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:07,960
Speaker 4: show Jesus Christy.

739
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:10,680
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, don't get me wrong, I'm gonna be

740
00:36:10,719 --> 00:36:12,320
Speaker 7: generationally wealthy.

741
00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 4: Sam Donald. And it's a stupid bet. I hate it,

742
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:19,680
Speaker 4: but it's a bet I have to make. It's a

743
00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:22,160
Speaker 4: bet where we've seen Perty go down in a first

744
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:24,080
Speaker 4: quarter of a playoff game before, we've seen him take

745
00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 4: blindside hits because Shanahan schemed up wrong and he blocked

746
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:29,239
Speaker 4: one of the best d ms in football with the

747
00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:32,280
Speaker 4: tight end. Like, these things can happen, So it's crazy.

748
00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 4: But Sam Donald right now is two hundred to one,

749
00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:35,920
Speaker 4: So I'm gonna throw a little bit on that. It's

750
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:38,400
Speaker 4: it's crazy odds. You need a miracle to hit it.

751
00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:41,279
Speaker 4: But I love those kind of bets. Obviously, the boy

752
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:42,800
Speaker 4: and Chalk bet is going to be a home so

753
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 4: I'm staying away from that. I get if you want

754
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:47,120
Speaker 4: to play that, but I like long shots. So my

755
00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 4: second big long shot is Fred Warner. It's all there right,

756
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:53,400
Speaker 4: Like if you could get turnovers, he can make big stops.

757
00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:55,799
Speaker 4: I could see him stealing this award just because he's

758
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 4: a recognized names you talked about the writers love him, right,

759
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:01,560
Speaker 4: if you're a beauty nine ers you love him, and

760
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:03,279
Speaker 4: then the chief side their respect out of it. Mean,

761
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:05,800
Speaker 4: I think he just set the record for most tackles

762
00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:08,920
Speaker 4: in the playoffs for the forty nine ers defense historically. Like,

763
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 4: this guy has just been incredible his whole career has

764
00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:14,239
Speaker 4: been incredible. No one has a bad way to say

765
00:37:14,239 --> 00:37:15,920
Speaker 4: about Fred Warren and that we always talk about their

766
00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 4: narrative driven awards. So that's why I like Sam Darnald.

767
00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 4: That's a crazy story. If he just came in and

768
00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:23,200
Speaker 4: threw for a one hundred and fifty yards and two touchdowns.

769
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:25,560
Speaker 4: I know it sounds stupid, but I could see him

770
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 4: winning this. Sam gos a Fred Warner. Fred Warner gets

771
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:30,799
Speaker 4: a pick six, any type of turnover that flips the game,

772
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:32,920
Speaker 4: I could easily see him winning this award, just because

773
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:34,799
Speaker 4: what Nick talked about, the forty nine ers is going

774
00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:36,800
Speaker 4: to cannibalize each other on offense, so it's gonna be

775
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:39,680
Speaker 4: really hard to pick a guy out there where defensively,

776
00:37:39,719 --> 00:37:41,359
Speaker 4: there's a couple of guys that stand out like Ward

777
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:43,440
Speaker 4: you could take as well. But I like the price

778
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:45,879
Speaker 4: on Fred. We just see time and time again linebackers

779
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:48,200
Speaker 4: usually have a bigger impact on these type of games.

780
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 4: So yeah, I like Fred and I like the long

781
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 4: shot Sam Darnold.

782
00:37:52,440 --> 00:37:54,600
Speaker 7: Remember when you were in high school, we all built

783
00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 7: forge or played with legos.

784
00:37:56,120 --> 00:37:59,200
Speaker 1: I don't know, it's fun. A lot of Fred Warner

785
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:04,600
Speaker 1: fetishized goes on in press boxes, media rooms, you name it.

786
00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:11,719
Speaker 1: Sports writers love themselves some Fred Warner Simon. Everyone that

787
00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:17,160
Speaker 1: knows me, including you, including Matt Mitchell, knows I'm obsessed

788
00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:21,920
Speaker 1: with eating well. I avoid sugar, truth, I avoid seed oils.

789
00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:23,880
Speaker 2: Truth. My body is a temple.

790
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:28,319
Speaker 1: I seek out quality in everything I eat, including meat

791
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:32,880
Speaker 1: and seafood. That's why I love our friends at good Shop.

792
00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:38,359
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793
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794
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795
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796
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797
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798
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799
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:05,160
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800
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801
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:11,480
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802
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803
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804
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Speaker 1: and use code favorites one twenty to get one hundred

805
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806
00:39:26,040 --> 00:39:28,320
Speaker 2: Off across your first four boxes.

807
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:35,600
Speaker 1: That's code at Favorites one twenty at good shop dot com.

808
00:39:35,600 --> 00:39:40,680
Speaker 1: Slash favorites one twenty for one hundred and twenty dollars

809
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810
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:52,560
Speaker 1: Favorites one twenty. All right, I promised. I promised that

811
00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:57,520
Speaker 1: we would have the winner of our contest come on

812
00:39:58,120 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 1: during the show.

813
00:39:58,719 --> 00:39:59,839
Speaker 2: Matt Mitchell spoke to him.

814
00:40:00,239 --> 00:40:04,399
Speaker 1: Number one, shout out to the guy who submitted mahomes

815
00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:09,120
Speaker 1: and Auto looked up the Median home and auto prices

816
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:12,920
Speaker 1: in the Kansas City Metroplex for his prop. That's Brian

817
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:18,440
Speaker 1: Goldberg and his son Gerald. Other finalists. Let's see, there

818
00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:22,880
Speaker 1: was a blackjack prop either team to score exactly twenty

819
00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:26,480
Speaker 1: one points at any point during the game. There was

820
00:40:26,520 --> 00:40:31,160
Speaker 1: a hit on sixteen. Either team converts third and sixteen

821
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:36,080
Speaker 1: or fourth and sixteen for a first down. Matt Mitchell,

822
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:38,680
Speaker 1: you want to come in and take this away.

823
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:41,759
Speaker 3: Okay, Last, but not least, Uncle.

824
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:43,399
Speaker 7: Mitch to wrap us up. One.

825
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 6: I want to shout out Josh shave Us on Twitter

826
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:51,680
Speaker 6: for posting that he couldn't figure out who brock Party

827
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:56,200
Speaker 6: looked like, and he finally figured it out and it's

828
00:40:56,280 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 6: Lee Harvey Oswald. I've never seen something more so shout

829
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:03,680
Speaker 6: out to Josh Chaves. I also want to thank all

830
00:41:03,719 --> 00:41:07,600
Speaker 6: of the many, many, many many listeners who submitted props.

831
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:10,520
Speaker 6: I was overwhelmed with how many we got. Sorry, I

832
00:41:10,560 --> 00:41:14,120
Speaker 6: couldn't get back to everybody. Outstanding job. I'm sorry we

833
00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:16,400
Speaker 6: could only pick one, and ultimately it was up to

834
00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:20,360
Speaker 6: gaming regulations and Bet three sixty five for what they picked,

835
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:23,200
Speaker 6: So in my mind, you're all winners. Thank you for listening.

836
00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:26,680
Speaker 6: I also want to thank Michael Sard and his shirt

837
00:41:26,680 --> 00:41:31,960
Speaker 6: company tom Bolow, which makes extremely vibrant terry cloth based

838
00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:34,440
Speaker 6: shirts of which I'm a big fan. Turns out he

839
00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:37,960
Speaker 6: is a listener of the show and is sending Chad

840
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:41,200
Speaker 6: Simon and myself super Bowl shirts that they are creating.

841
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:44,960
Speaker 6: I'm very excited to slip terry cloth against my adonis

842
00:41:45,120 --> 00:41:48,080
Speaker 6: like body. I'm sure you are too, Chad. I wasn't

843
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:53,120
Speaker 6: sure they made shirts that small, but they're going to try. Finally,

844
00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:57,360
Speaker 6: it's time, though, for you, Chad, to announce the winner

845
00:41:58,000 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 6: of the contest. Please take it away.

846
00:42:00,680 --> 00:42:06,719
Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five selected a winner from listener Chandler

847
00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:12,920
Speaker 1: ball jam in. It is titled the Broctopus Brock Party

848
00:42:13,040 --> 00:42:17,640
Speaker 1: to record an octopus at plus fourteen hundred, which is

849
00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 1: now live on BET three sixty five under Super Bowl Specials.

850
00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:28,840
Speaker 1: Reminder and octopus that would be Brock Party to run

851
00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:31,880
Speaker 1: or throw for a touchdown, Brock Party to run or

852
00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:36,920
Speaker 1: throw for a two point conversion. Matt, We're going to

853
00:42:36,960 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 1: bring you back in, he spoke to Chandler. Congrats to Chandler,

854
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:43,000
Speaker 1: thank you for playing, Thank you for listening. Here is

855
00:42:43,040 --> 00:42:46,640
Speaker 1: the interview that Matt did with Chandler, and.

856
00:42:46,640 --> 00:42:48,680
Speaker 4: All that build up and all of this hoop lot

857
00:42:48,840 --> 00:42:50,240
Speaker 4: is as big as it seems.

858
00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:51,800
Speaker 5: I think it's bigger than it seems.

859
00:42:52,080 --> 00:42:53,279
Speaker 7: It's the biggest thing in your.

860
00:42:53,200 --> 00:42:56,960
Speaker 6: Life, all right. As promised, I'm now joined by our

861
00:42:57,080 --> 00:43:01,320
Speaker 6: Favorites podcast BET three sixty five Super Bowl prop contest

862
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:04,520
Speaker 6: winner Chandler. Baljamin Chandler, Welcome.

863
00:43:04,280 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 5: To the show, Thanks Matt, thanks for having me on.

864
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:06,680
Speaker 2: Chandler.

865
00:43:06,760 --> 00:43:08,360
Speaker 6: Where are you coming to us from.

866
00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:09,759
Speaker 5: Beautiful Phoenix, Arizona?

867
00:43:10,080 --> 00:43:12,440
Speaker 6: And what is your racket out there? Chandler? What do

868
00:43:12,480 --> 00:43:12,680
Speaker 6: you do?

869
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:16,320
Speaker 5: I work for Southware Company. It's a lot of staying

870
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:18,120
Speaker 5: inside and watching a lot of football.

871
00:43:18,440 --> 00:43:20,680
Speaker 6: And do you have any people are animals that live

872
00:43:20,719 --> 00:43:20,920
Speaker 6: with you?

873
00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:24,080
Speaker 5: Yeah? I got a couple of cats, one named Cam

874
00:43:24,120 --> 00:43:27,080
Speaker 5: Newton got him during the twenty fifteen season. It was

875
00:43:27,120 --> 00:43:27,719
Speaker 5: all about him.

876
00:43:27,719 --> 00:43:31,160
Speaker 6: So that's wonderful. Congratulations to you and to Cam Newton

877
00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:34,520
Speaker 6: for your big win. Obviously for everyone by Down knows

878
00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:38,480
Speaker 6: the winning heck was the Broctopus Rock party to record

879
00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:40,719
Speaker 6: an octopus in the Super Bowl. Can you tell us

880
00:43:40,719 --> 00:43:43,120
Speaker 6: a little bit about how you came up with this prop?

881
00:43:43,680 --> 00:43:46,239
Speaker 5: Yeah, it all starts with the fun name. You know.

882
00:43:46,239 --> 00:43:49,560
Speaker 5: I wanted to stay away from any Kelsey antics or

883
00:43:49,920 --> 00:43:52,320
Speaker 5: Chiefs antics from big Raiders fans, so I knew I

884
00:43:52,400 --> 00:43:54,720
Speaker 5: want to focus on the Niners. I was thinking about

885
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:57,920
Speaker 5: the names, and I remember October you guys talked about

886
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:01,560
Speaker 5: and I almost here in Scott Hansen voice, just saying broctopus.

887
00:44:01,960 --> 00:44:04,719
Speaker 5: That was that. I wanted to bet it and didn't

888
00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:07,719
Speaker 5: really think about plausibility or anything. But once something I

889
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:09,080
Speaker 5: want that I want to root for and people are

890
00:44:09,120 --> 00:44:11,160
Speaker 5: going to want to root for, which is Rock pretty

891
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:12,160
Speaker 5: beating these Chiefs.

892
00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:15,840
Speaker 6: Wow, A Raiders fan with a job really need to

893
00:44:15,880 --> 00:44:16,920
Speaker 6: let a Haystack situation.

894
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:19,800
Speaker 5: For us, it's amazing more than three hots on a

895
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:20,399
Speaker 5: cop for sure.

896
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:24,360
Speaker 6: Chandler, we got a ton of submissions. What do you

897
00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:25,480
Speaker 6: think made you standout?

898
00:44:25,920 --> 00:44:29,040
Speaker 5: Well? I think Brock's a great story, Like for me personally,

899
00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:32,640
Speaker 5: it stays away from my homes or Kelsey. I think

900
00:44:32,640 --> 00:44:34,840
Speaker 5: I liked Kelsey how Much you can Save If I

901
00:44:34,880 --> 00:44:36,279
Speaker 5: was trying to get that to work. But we're just

902
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:39,000
Speaker 5: tired of all those commercials, and you know, I think

903
00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:41,719
Speaker 5: there's more room to root for the Niners and rock

904
00:44:41,719 --> 00:44:44,759
Speaker 5: Perty's got this cool story. Octopus is something people have

905
00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:47,480
Speaker 5: hopefully heard of, but it's still kind of in the know,

906
00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 5: So just fun to say we can all yell it

907
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:50,840
Speaker 5: out when it happens.

908
00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:54,400
Speaker 6: Do you think you will be placing money on this wager? Yourself?

909
00:44:55,600 --> 00:44:57,440
Speaker 5: Just found out that it's now going to be live

910
00:44:57,480 --> 00:45:00,560
Speaker 5: in my state, so I cannot wait to play step bet.

911
00:45:00,719 --> 00:45:02,080
Speaker 5: Absolutely have to bet it.

912
00:45:02,320 --> 00:45:04,919
Speaker 6: Have you been listening to the Favorites podcast for very long?

913
00:45:05,280 --> 00:45:06,080
Speaker 5: About three years?

914
00:45:06,080 --> 00:45:09,240
Speaker 6: I'd say, do you have any feedback to give Chad

915
00:45:09,360 --> 00:45:09,920
Speaker 6: or Simon?

916
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:13,080
Speaker 5: I think it's better when they're fighting, the more that

917
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:16,160
Speaker 5: Chad is representing the public and Simon can kind of

918
00:45:16,160 --> 00:45:18,759
Speaker 5: braid him or that contention. It's great. The guys do

919
00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:19,960
Speaker 5: a great job. It's fun to listen to.

920
00:45:20,120 --> 00:45:23,040
Speaker 6: So before we go, do have a most memorable moment

921
00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:24,240
Speaker 6: from gambling this season?

922
00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:28,000
Speaker 5: The Bills at home hosting the Dolphins. I think it

923
00:45:28,040 --> 00:45:30,480
Speaker 5: was like minus two and a half. Every bone in

924
00:45:30,520 --> 00:45:32,520
Speaker 5: my body just said, bet the house on this thing.

925
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:35,040
Speaker 5: It's the safest bet, and it just within minutes it

926
00:45:35,120 --> 00:45:37,640
Speaker 5: was completely safe. I think we all we all felt

927
00:45:37,640 --> 00:45:39,480
Speaker 5: that way. You know, it was as Simon says, I

928
00:45:39,560 --> 00:45:41,719
Speaker 5: believe and you know, I'm sure you were all over

929
00:45:41,760 --> 00:45:43,799
Speaker 5: that as well. But those are the best. It makes

930
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:46,640
Speaker 5: losing five times on the Panthers feel better when you

931
00:45:46,680 --> 00:45:48,760
Speaker 5: get those sure ones. So that was That was probably

932
00:45:48,800 --> 00:45:49,440
Speaker 5: my favorite.

933
00:45:49,600 --> 00:45:53,240
Speaker 6: Excellent pandering by you, Chandler, and a plus job working

934
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:56,160
Speaker 6: the Carolina Panthers into this interview before we get out

935
00:45:56,160 --> 00:45:58,720
Speaker 6: of here, anything else you would like to add, Chandler.

936
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:01,759
Speaker 5: Rock pretty US two twenty Super Bowl MVP is the

937
00:46:01,760 --> 00:46:06,040
Speaker 5: best bet. I'm getting the quarterback on consensus favorite at

938
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:08,520
Speaker 5: just a great number, so I would hit that while

939
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:09,400
Speaker 5: it's still that high.

940
00:46:09,600 --> 00:46:12,239
Speaker 6: Thank you so much for your submission. Congratulations on your win,

941
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:14,160
Speaker 6: and thank you for taking the time to join us.

942
00:46:14,440 --> 00:46:16,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, thanks Matt, and thanks Bet three six five. Can't

943
00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:18,680
Speaker 5: wait to place my bet on the brock toplust.

944
00:46:19,920 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 1: Get congratulations again to Chandler. Thanks so much to Matt

945
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:28,320
Speaker 1: Mitchell for performing such a professional interview. As a reminder,

946
00:46:28,360 --> 00:46:31,040
Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 1: sure to catch our next episode of The Favorites live

962
00:47:20,200 --> 00:47:24,960
Speaker 1: on the Action Network YouTube page this Thursday, eleven am Eastern.

963
00:47:25,120 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 1: I will be coming to you live beautiful Las Vegas, Nevada.

964
00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:35,240
Speaker 1: Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your pods, Rate, review, subscribe,

965
00:47:35,280 --> 00:47:37,759
Speaker 1: leave us five stars said whatever you want. Feedback is

966
00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:40,720
Speaker 1: a gift until Thursday, eleven am Eastern.

967
00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:41,440
Speaker 5: Love You.

968
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:49,080
Speaker 6: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

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Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

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Speaker 1: help us available twenty four to seven at one eight

971
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Speaker 1: hundred gambler