WEBVTT - Richard Haas on Iran War

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's keep this conversation going with Richard hass He is

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<v Speaker 2>President emeritus over at the Council on Foreign Relations and

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<v Speaker 2>a senior counselor with Centerview Partners. Richard, fantastic to have

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<v Speaker 2>you with us. So, I mean, as evidence by what

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<v Speaker 2>we're seeing just in the past couple of minutes, there's

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of ambiguity over what happens next, what happens

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<v Speaker 2>at eight pm tonight, And you know, as you watch

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<v Speaker 2>these you know, this back and forth play out. Apparently

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<v Speaker 2>Aroun isn't even talking anymore at this point. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>what is your gut instinct about what we see transpire

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<v Speaker 2>over the next five to twenty four hours.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, what's just as important as what happens tonight is

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<v Speaker 3>what doesn't happen tonight. Clearly, the pace of diplomacy is

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<v Speaker 3>picking up. It's not direct between Irun and the United States,

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<v Speaker 3>but Pakistan is in a critical position. It's one of

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<v Speaker 3>the few countries, think about it, there's good relations with

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<v Speaker 3>the United States, with Iran and with China, so that

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<v Speaker 3>puts them in a special position. They've been one of

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<v Speaker 3>the few countries that Iran has continues to ship oil

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<v Speaker 3>to through the Strait of Hormus, and the idea that

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<v Speaker 3>they're essentially trying to buy more time is realistic. There's

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<v Speaker 3>no way you can get a deal done between now

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<v Speaker 3>and eight o'clock to deal with the nuclear issue, the

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<v Speaker 3>Straight or anything else. So to ask for a couple

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<v Speaker 3>of weeks to maybe try to get the straight open

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<v Speaker 3>either way, I think.

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<v Speaker 4>That's essentially a good sign.

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<v Speaker 3>In large part, I'll be straight with you, I simply

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<v Speaker 3>don't see the upside of the United States carrying.

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<v Speaker 4>Out the threats that President Trump made.

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<v Speaker 3>I simply don't see what, if anything positive we get

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<v Speaker 3>for it. But I do think it could lead to

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<v Speaker 3>a much more destructive, wider war.

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<v Speaker 2>So maybe we do see some more time bought before

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<v Speaker 2>eight pm tonight. But you think about it, We've seen

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of extensions over the past couple of weeks,

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<v Speaker 2>and all the while we've seen the rhetoric really on

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<v Speaker 2>both sides escalate, And certainly that social media posted to

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<v Speaker 2>be got from President Trump this morning maybe takes the

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<v Speaker 2>cake there. But when it comes to the off ramp,

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<v Speaker 2>I think that's where a lot of people struggle what

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<v Speaker 2>the theoretical off ramp would be given that you know,

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<v Speaker 2>tensions are so high right now.

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<v Speaker 3>Look, there's any number of potential off ramps here. There's

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<v Speaker 3>probably three priorities. One is to stop the war, Two

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<v Speaker 3>is to open the straight. Three is to place some

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<v Speaker 3>sort of a verifiable ceiling on Iran's nuclear program.

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<v Speaker 4>Those are the three goals.

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<v Speaker 3>Again, there's no way you can get them done quickly,

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<v Speaker 3>but I would think the most urgent is to get

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<v Speaker 3>the straight open and to get some type of a

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<v Speaker 3>cease fire or hopefully more than that, and then over time,

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<v Speaker 3>I think you can address the nuclear program through negotiations,

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<v Speaker 3>and I think that's all optimistic but not unrealistic.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I am curious about just kind of the deliberative strategy,

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<v Speaker 1>if at all, that we're seeing out of the US

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<v Speaker 1>side of this, and to who's really driving this, because

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<v Speaker 1>there seems to be a lot of reports basically saying

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<v Speaker 1>with military leaders, I guess trying to push back on

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<v Speaker 1>some of the requests that Trump is making behind closed doors,

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<v Speaker 1>not in defiance, but just you know, I guess a

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<v Speaker 1>nod to the reality of how they need to carry

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<v Speaker 1>out their missions here. We know that whatever I guess,

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<v Speaker 1>ballistic missile drone capabilities, they have have not been completely

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<v Speaker 1>eliminated based on the couple of jets that we lost

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<v Speaker 1>over the weekend. Here should that be a mission that

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<v Speaker 1>maybe should be a little bit more at the forefront

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<v Speaker 1>to make sure that that threat is eliminated.

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<v Speaker 3>Eliminated as too ambitious. Roan can continue to produce drones.

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<v Speaker 3>Look what Ukraine does. Every basement is a drone factory.

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<v Speaker 3>So the idea that you're going to eliminate their physical

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<v Speaker 3>military capability to interfere with shipping or their ability to

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<v Speaker 3>hit a desalinization plan or an energy refinery simply not possible.

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<v Speaker 4>Missiles you'll never find all of them.

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<v Speaker 3>You can degrade, you can diminish military capability, but if

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<v Speaker 3>your goal is to effectively disarm, then you're talking about

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<v Speaker 3>perpetual war.

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<v Speaker 1>There has been a lot of debate, and I'm going

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<v Speaker 1>to get too much into the ethics of it, but

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<v Speaker 1>at least from a strategy standpoint, this idea of some

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<v Speaker 1>of the degradation we've seen to civilian infrastructure, The idea

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<v Speaker 1>that even if we somehow win this war and we

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<v Speaker 1>somehow get the Iranian regime to capitulate, there is some

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<v Speaker 1>concern here that we have maybe demoralize a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>the rank and file people on the ground, who, in theory,

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<v Speaker 1>we would need to some degree to support whatever the

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<v Speaker 1>US's aims are post war.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, first of all, we're not going to get the

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<v Speaker 3>Iranians to capitulate.

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<v Speaker 4>They've got a lot of leverage.

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<v Speaker 3>Hopefully we can get them at some point to agree

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<v Speaker 3>to a piece at most to compromise. But the idea

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<v Speaker 3>that they're going to capitulate I put off to the side.

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<v Speaker 4>I put off to the side any hope of a

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<v Speaker 4>regime change.

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<v Speaker 3>If anything, the regime's probably in a stronger place now

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<v Speaker 3>than I was five weeks ago. Look, in any foreign

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<v Speaker 3>policy endeavor, particularly in war, you've got to set achievable,

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<v Speaker 3>reasonable objectives. God, there has to be some close connection

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<v Speaker 3>between your ends and the means that.

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<v Speaker 4>You're prepared to employ to bring them about.

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<v Speaker 3>So the most ambitious aims are simply non starters. Realistic

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<v Speaker 3>aims are the ones I talked about to put a

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<v Speaker 3>ceiling on Iran's nuclear program, probably through the diplomacy, and

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<v Speaker 3>to reopen the straight or fore moods.

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<v Speaker 4>I think those are both essential. The good news is

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<v Speaker 4>they're potentially feasible.

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<v Speaker 2>As well, and Richard, I want to go back to

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<v Speaker 2>what you said that you know, if anything, the Iranian

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<v Speaker 2>regime is stronger now, in a stronger position, because you

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<v Speaker 2>think about again what we got from the President this

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<v Speaker 2>morning posting on truth Social that in his view, we

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<v Speaker 2>have complete and total regime change. It sounds like you

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<v Speaker 2>disagree with that.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, it's preposterous.

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<v Speaker 3>You still have the revolution in charge of Iran that

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<v Speaker 3>came in seventy nine. Some individuals killed, obviously, from the

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<v Speaker 3>Ayatola to several military and intelligence leaders, but the regime,

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<v Speaker 3>the system is still intact. You've got political leadership, clerical leadership,

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<v Speaker 3>You've got a military leadership. You have the regular army,

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<v Speaker 3>you have the Revolutionary Guards, you have the besieged, the

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<v Speaker 3>pew of the neighborhood community, people with who go out

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<v Speaker 3>in the streets with sticks. This is a regime that's

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<v Speaker 3>heavily institutionalized. This is not Venezuela. We're not talking about

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<v Speaker 3>removing a slice and everything crumbles. This is a deeply institutionalized, institutionalized, religious, political,

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<v Speaker 3>and military establishment. So we should for the time being

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<v Speaker 3>accept the unfortunate fact that the regime is going to stay.

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<v Speaker 3>The Iranian people are going to be the losers, and

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<v Speaker 3>we've got to deal with the government we have, not

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<v Speaker 3>the one we want.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you think it's a plausible scenario that the US

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<v Speaker 1>actually walks away from this.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, again, the President could declare victory and quote unquote

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<v Speaker 3>walk away.

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<v Speaker 4>I think that would be a big mistake. That's what

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<v Speaker 4>I would call. We broke it, you own it.

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<v Speaker 3>We have the challenge of opening up the Strait, we

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<v Speaker 3>have the challenge of the nuclear program. So I think

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<v Speaker 3>walking away from it, quite honestly, would be irresponsible.

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<v Speaker 4>The good news is there's a lot of space.

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<v Speaker 3>Between walking away from it on one hand, and doing

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<v Speaker 3>what the President talked about bombing bridges and power plants.

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<v Speaker 3>There's a lot of space for certain limited military operations.

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<v Speaker 3>More important, there's a lot of space for diplomacy that

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<v Speaker 3>should be our focus.

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<v Speaker 1>Richard, always a pleasure, always great insights. Richard Haass, President

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<v Speaker 1>Emeritus at the Council on Foreign Relations, now a senior

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<v Speaker 1>counselor with Center View Partners.