1 00:00:01,000 --> 00:00:05,840 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. It's on target. It 2 00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:07,640 Speaker 1: is good way. 3 00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:14,200 Speaker 2: That's when you have fun, when you're kicking somebody's ass 4 00:00:14,200 --> 00:00:17,320 Speaker 2: and they're sucking for when that was good? 5 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:18,759 Speaker 3: Ready, go. 6 00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:30,720 Speaker 2: In bolder on the baselaf pop Yeah, way outside, it's possible. 7 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:35,360 Speaker 1: I'm the Wiley event. 8 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 3: There it is we whoa, whoa. 9 00:00:40,120 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Mike Calvary. 10 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:45,479 Speaker 4: Selection Sunday now in the rearview mirror, which means we 11 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:48,199 Speaker 4: have our hands on the official sixty eighteen bracket to 12 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:51,519 Speaker 4: agonize over these matchups in the coming days. As for 13 00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:54,520 Speaker 4: the teams, what qualifies as success, I mean it differs 14 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 4: from the big programs of the smaller ones. 15 00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 1: Those smaller schools can put their schools on the. 16 00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:01,840 Speaker 4: Map, as UNBC Saint Peter's Florida Gulf Coast have done 17 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:04,399 Speaker 4: in years past simply by winning a single game or 18 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 4: getting to the second weekend. 19 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:06,959 Speaker 1: But there's a lot of teams at the. 20 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:09,240 Speaker 4: Top of the bracket, those one and two seeds that 21 00:01:09,360 --> 00:01:11,199 Speaker 4: they don't make it to San Antonio. If they don't 22 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:13,680 Speaker 4: cut down the nets, it won't be a successful march. 23 00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:16,240 Speaker 4: It can also be a successful march for us gamblers 24 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 4: if we can hit it big in some of these pools. 25 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:20,680 Speaker 4: And this episode is for you. This is our annual 26 00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:23,840 Speaker 4: March Madness Pool Strategy episode. We're going to break down 27 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:26,280 Speaker 4: the two most popular pools that people are playing out 28 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:28,400 Speaker 4: there in the market, which of course are those traditional 29 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:31,160 Speaker 4: bracket pools as well as survivor pools. And we're going 30 00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:33,480 Speaker 4: to bring in pool play expert in front of the podcast, 31 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:36,920 Speaker 4: Jason Lisk from poolgenius dot com, to help us unpack 32 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:39,800 Speaker 4: all of it. How excited are you for March Madus 33 00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 4: to officially kick off on Tuesday night? 34 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:46,399 Speaker 2: Jason, super excited, you know, definitely to watch these games. 35 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:50,280 Speaker 2: Also that I don't have to make these bracket predictions 36 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 2: about you know, which of these crazy bubble teams is 37 00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:55,320 Speaker 2: going to get excluded, which is what I was doing 38 00:01:55,400 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 2: up till now, And all the prep work that I've 39 00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 2: been doing hopefully will come to free tuition as we 40 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 2: get into these games. 41 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:02,920 Speaker 3: I've been studying all these. 42 00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 2: Teams maked notes, and we've been adjusting our ratings for 43 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:11,240 Speaker 2: our bracket pick advice, so we have detailed information on 44 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:11,840 Speaker 2: all the teams. 45 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:14,639 Speaker 4: We hear at Action Network, love Pool Genius, We love 46 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 4: their products, and we've once again partnered with them this season. 47 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:20,960 Speaker 4: That's because they remain the only site dedicated exclusively to 48 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:23,560 Speaker 4: helping people win more pools across all kinds of sports, 49 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:26,360 Speaker 4: from the NFL to college basketball and everything in between. 50 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:29,239 Speaker 4: We love data and analytics here at Action, and they've 51 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:32,680 Speaker 4: spent over a decade building tools to optimize your picks based. 52 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:34,520 Speaker 1: On math, game theory and data. 53 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:37,920 Speaker 4: And their subscribers have reported more than eight million dollars 54 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:41,080 Speaker 4: in pool prize winnings since twenty seventeen and cash in 55 00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 4: their pools more than three times more than expected. So, 56 00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 4: so much value, so much to unpack here in this episode, 57 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:50,040 Speaker 4: so let's jump right into it. But before we do, Jason, 58 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 4: why don't you just quickly tell us about the customizable 59 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:54,480 Speaker 4: products that pool Genius offers this year. 60 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, for the NCAA tournament specifically, we have a variety 61 00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:02,200 Speaker 2: of things, including some new one more new product. Our 62 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:05,639 Speaker 2: core product is our men's bracket product, which has been 63 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 2: going on for well over a decade, and you get 64 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 2: customized pick advice for all types of scoring rules, set 65 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:15,000 Speaker 2: up as many pools as you want, and you get 66 00:03:15,320 --> 00:03:17,160 Speaker 2: a set of brackets so you can set up an 67 00:03:17,200 --> 00:03:20,240 Speaker 2: upset driven pool, a small pool, all that stuff, and 68 00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:23,480 Speaker 2: you might get different upsets. You might get chalk of 69 00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:25,760 Speaker 2: your picks in the small pool, you might get some 70 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 2: key picks and other pools. 71 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 3: And we give you alternate. 72 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:31,680 Speaker 2: Brackets so you can view all the alternates and decide 73 00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 2: which ones you want to play if you're playing in portfolio. 74 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:38,560 Speaker 2: Besides the bracket picks, we have our Survivor. We have 75 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:40,880 Speaker 2: a Calcutta product, So we have a Survivor product that 76 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:44,120 Speaker 2: will give you the odds, the round advancement ods kind 77 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 2: of assess both teams current win odds and their future value, 78 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 2: because that's what you really have to do in Survivor 79 00:03:50,840 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 2: is figure out when you want to use a team, 80 00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 2: when it makes the most sense to take your risk. 81 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:57,560 Speaker 2: You either take risk now or you take it later 82 00:03:57,600 --> 00:03:59,640 Speaker 2: by trying to hope a team doesn't kill you in 83 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 2: the final four. And so that Survivor in Calcutta, we 84 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:06,560 Speaker 2: have a customized product where you get our advancement odds 85 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 2: and our numbers apply to whatever you say your Calcutta 86 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 2: rules are, and you can adjust as your pool as 87 00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:16,040 Speaker 2: your pot size increases as you enter. How much money 88 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 2: a team was bid for so it is designed to 89 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:20,960 Speaker 2: help you as you go through a Calcutta pool. And 90 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:24,760 Speaker 2: then new for this year, Women's NCAA brackets, same logic, 91 00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:28,159 Speaker 2: same philosophy as our men's brackets, but we now have 92 00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 2: picks on South Carolina, Connecticut, USC, et cetera in the 93 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:35,839 Speaker 2: women's brackets. So if you're playing women's brackets, check us 94 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:37,239 Speaker 2: out again. 95 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 4: Today, we'll be discussing the strategies for the two most 96 00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:42,120 Speaker 4: popular kinds of March Madness pools. That means our traditional 97 00:04:42,160 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 4: bracket pools as well as survivor pools. We'll start with 98 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:47,800 Speaker 4: the more popular bracket pools, that's what the vast majority 99 00:04:47,839 --> 00:04:50,480 Speaker 4: of people are comfortable and familiar with, and you know, 100 00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:52,920 Speaker 4: we'll move to some of the other pools and kind 101 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 4: of look at some of the angles that are specific and. 102 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:55,960 Speaker 1: Unique to them. 103 00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 4: As a reminder, pool Genius is extending special March Madness 104 00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:02,560 Speaker 4: pricing just action listeners. They've got options for March Madness, 105 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:05,440 Speaker 4: NFL pools, golf pools, really whatever you're into. So if 106 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:07,279 Speaker 4: you want to get an edge in your bracket pool 107 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:10,000 Speaker 4: or survivor pool this week, just visit the link in 108 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:13,120 Speaker 4: this episode's description to see all the offers and discounts. 109 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 4: All right, let's get into the meat of this is 110 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 4: what people came for, This is what they're listening in for. 111 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 1: Jason. 112 00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:20,720 Speaker 4: From a data perspective, what are the most important components 113 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:23,960 Speaker 4: to consider when filling out your traditional bracket and what 114 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 4: are the rules to be aware of scale a by 115 00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:28,039 Speaker 4: and number of entries that you're competing against. 116 00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:31,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, we definitely want to adjust on pool size, and 117 00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 2: not just pool size but functional pool size, like the 118 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:36,800 Speaker 2: number of payout spots. So we would treat a one 119 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:39,719 Speaker 2: hundred person winner take all pool differently than we would 120 00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:42,600 Speaker 2: treat one with ten playout spots. And we want to 121 00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 2: take a little more risk and the winner take all 122 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:46,920 Speaker 2: because you have you are less likely to the outcome 123 00:05:47,200 --> 00:05:51,800 Speaker 2: and you need to thread the needle more and so those. 124 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:52,599 Speaker 3: Things will come into play. 125 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:55,039 Speaker 2: And then of course the scoring rules matter a lot, 126 00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:59,919 Speaker 2: like the standard scoring, Like if you go to ES 127 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:03,040 Speaker 2: or a place that has like a really large amount 128 00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 2: for the champ pick puts an extreme bonus on getting 129 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:10,000 Speaker 2: the champ, the final four, the champion runner up, And 130 00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 2: so you really want to think what team's giving my 131 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:15,080 Speaker 2: best chance and maybe I'm willing to eat some chalk 132 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:18,720 Speaker 2: there and differentiated elsewhere, So I give myself the best 133 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:22,239 Speaker 2: chance to hit those points, whereas in a seed based 134 00:06:22,240 --> 00:06:27,160 Speaker 2: pool or an upset pool, maybe I'm going on some upsets, 135 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:30,919 Speaker 2: some less likely outcomes there just to maximize my points. 136 00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:33,280 Speaker 2: And so you want to think about all those things, 137 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:36,279 Speaker 2: and they all come up in our strategy as we 138 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:37,679 Speaker 2: think about what's the best. 139 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 4: Way to play it now this year in particular here 140 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:43,640 Speaker 4: in twenty twenty five, you talk about chalky picks potentially 141 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 4: getting to the final four winning the national championship, at 142 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:49,560 Speaker 4: least according to Kenpom, any of the top seeds the 143 00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:53,400 Speaker 4: number one seeds, so that's Florida, Houston, Auburn Duke. If 144 00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:56,120 Speaker 4: any of them win the national title, there's a high 145 00:06:56,200 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 4: likelihood they're going to be the top rated in terms 146 00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 4: of their net rating from Kenpom as an overall rating 147 00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 4: of any champion in the last twenty five years, making 148 00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:08,240 Speaker 4: this the most incredible crop of one seeds that we've 149 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:11,600 Speaker 4: seen really in the last quarter century. Do you think 150 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:14,400 Speaker 4: it is worth it to play contrarian and go outside 151 00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 4: of those number one seeds or are they just so 152 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:19,000 Speaker 4: much stronger than the field that you don't want to 153 00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 4: handicap yourself right out of the gate by getting a 154 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 4: little too cute and going with a three or four 155 00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:24,600 Speaker 4: seed to cut down the nets. 156 00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, i'm gonna I'm gonna give you kind of my 157 00:07:27,120 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 2: assessment of this field. And along those lines, with our ratings, 158 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:33,920 Speaker 2: Duke is rated higher than any team we've had in 159 00:07:33,920 --> 00:07:36,880 Speaker 2: the last decade. Now, that's compared to the average Division 160 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:40,240 Speaker 2: I school, and you have to understand things have changed, 161 00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:45,640 Speaker 2: like the older players, the transfer portal mid majors being 162 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:49,280 Speaker 2: basically ripped of their players and them playing now Jenni 163 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:51,960 Speaker 2: Berom and guys like that on high majors. 164 00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 3: You know, those guys. 165 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 2: Would have been on the ten seeds and making a 166 00:07:55,520 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 2: run a decade ago. And so the average call basketball 167 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 2: team's probably not quite as good as it was in 168 00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:04,360 Speaker 2: fifteen because some of the mid majors have been has 169 00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:08,480 Speaker 2: lost those But relative to average, Duke is really dominant, 170 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:11,960 Speaker 2: so is Houston. Florida is on a roll, and probably 171 00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 2: since Thanksgiving would rate similarly closer to Duke. Auburn really 172 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:20,360 Speaker 2: good early, sliding late, but still up there. 173 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 3: And so. 174 00:08:23,280 --> 00:08:25,600 Speaker 2: Just to put it in perspective, twenty twenty three, that 175 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:29,960 Speaker 2: was the Alabama year with Brandon william and they were 176 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:33,440 Speaker 2: the one seed, but he was hurt, and their power 177 00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:37,079 Speaker 2: rating is less than Tennessee this year, who's not even 178 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 2: a one seed relatively speaking. 179 00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:41,120 Speaker 3: Andy was hurt, and. 180 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:43,600 Speaker 2: So we know that all the one seeds got knocked 181 00:08:43,640 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 2: off it year, but they also weren't as dominant as 182 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:46,679 Speaker 2: this year's teams. 183 00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:47,400 Speaker 3: And so if you're. 184 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:52,080 Speaker 2: Asking me, I think that I would say one of 185 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:54,240 Speaker 2: these teams is going to win the national title. I 186 00:08:54,280 --> 00:08:56,720 Speaker 2: would be very surprised. Now, could there be one of 187 00:08:56,720 --> 00:08:59,880 Speaker 2: them get knocked off in like the sweet sixteen or something? Yeah, 188 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:03,720 Speaker 2: the eight seeds are strong. Could a Gonzaga or a 189 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:06,720 Speaker 2: Connecticut with their pedigree and you know, with a fully 190 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:11,880 Speaker 2: healthy team entering the tournament beat them. Yes, there are roadblocks, 191 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:14,200 Speaker 2: but I think one of them will get through, And 192 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:16,439 Speaker 2: if that path opens up because the other got knocked off, 193 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:18,680 Speaker 2: that just makes that team's chances more likely. And so 194 00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:21,240 Speaker 2: I wouldn't go too far down the list this year. 195 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:23,840 Speaker 2: It's kind of like my thought. The other thought here 196 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:26,439 Speaker 2: is I think the committee got the top three or 197 00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:31,320 Speaker 2: four seed lines right in terms of quality, but then 198 00:09:31,360 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 2: it's a jumbled mess after that. And so I think 199 00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:37,000 Speaker 2: It's like there's a lot of like question marks in 200 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:38,040 Speaker 2: the middle of this bracket. 201 00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:41,760 Speaker 4: It's interesting when you talk about the top, I also 202 00:09:41,800 --> 00:09:44,719 Speaker 4: look at the bottom. It's twelve through sixteen seeds. This 203 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:47,679 Speaker 4: was a very light year on what are called bid steelers. 204 00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:51,040 Speaker 4: You didn't have these Cinderella stories and conference tournaments where 205 00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 4: a team goes seventeen and fifteen and then wins five 206 00:09:53,320 --> 00:09:54,360 Speaker 4: games in five days. 207 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:56,440 Speaker 1: Now, part of that is a lot of these. 208 00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:59,640 Speaker 4: Low and mid major conferences have constructed their tournaments to 209 00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:02,959 Speaker 4: really protect top seeds, you know, advancing them all the 210 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:04,960 Speaker 4: way to the semis or having every single game on 211 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:08,360 Speaker 4: their home floor. But with that being said, between the 212 00:10:08,400 --> 00:10:11,120 Speaker 4: twelve and sixteen lines, there are eleven teams that were 213 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:13,920 Speaker 4: either co or regular season champs that went on to 214 00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 4: win their conference tournament as well. So from that perspective, 215 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:20,400 Speaker 4: do you think there's a chance for some madness and 216 00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:23,560 Speaker 4: an opportunity to really get crazy with some upset picks 217 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 4: to differentiate your bracket right out of the gate. With 218 00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:28,560 Speaker 4: those round of sixty four upsets, there. 219 00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:30,439 Speaker 2: Are definitely you know, I would I play that in 220 00:10:30,520 --> 00:10:31,720 Speaker 2: like a small bracket? 221 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:31,880 Speaker 4: Now? 222 00:10:32,679 --> 00:10:34,920 Speaker 2: Would I probably bet that? More is like the money 223 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:39,040 Speaker 2: line type plays. But there are definitely opportunities where these 224 00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:42,080 Speaker 2: twelve seeds, I mean Colorado States favored, and they should be, 225 00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:45,560 Speaker 2: by the way, should be. We were giving them out 226 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:47,720 Speaker 2: for the Mountain West futures. We have them rated up. 227 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:51,160 Speaker 2: Their lineup is vastly different than it was in November December, 228 00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 2: and with this current lineup, they're playing like a top 229 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:54,559 Speaker 2: four seed. 230 00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:56,120 Speaker 3: That's how that's the quality. 231 00:10:56,120 --> 00:10:56,200 Speaker 1: Now. 232 00:10:56,240 --> 00:10:57,960 Speaker 2: We haven't seen it outside the Mountain West and so 233 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:01,320 Speaker 2: you have question marks, but the state has potential to 234 00:11:01,400 --> 00:11:01,800 Speaker 2: be that. 235 00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:07,640 Speaker 3: And they're a twelve seed Liberty Yale Charles. Who else 236 00:11:07,880 --> 00:11:09,720 Speaker 3: is up in that group? We got mcneiche. 237 00:11:10,880 --> 00:11:15,720 Speaker 2: San who honestly I thought had that large case if 238 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:17,640 Speaker 2: they had lost to UC or Ryan and should have 239 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:19,560 Speaker 2: got in Oversay in North Carolina or one of these 240 00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:21,960 Speaker 2: other teams in the bubble and been like a eleven seed, 241 00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:24,840 Speaker 2: ten seed, and they are a twelve and they draw 242 00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:27,000 Speaker 2: the big ten champ coming off a long week and 243 00:11:27,120 --> 00:11:31,000 Speaker 2: going out to Denver in the elevation. So there's lots 244 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:33,480 Speaker 2: of potential in that twelve thirteen range. Because yes, as 245 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:37,920 Speaker 2: you said, the seeds held this year. I was doing 246 00:11:37,960 --> 00:11:40,000 Speaker 2: bracket projections two or three weeks ago, and I barely 247 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:42,439 Speaker 2: had to change anything in the top two or three 248 00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:46,040 Speaker 2: seed lines of the mid majors. Now they did change 249 00:11:46,040 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 2: in the sixteen seed range, but at the twelve thirteen 250 00:11:49,440 --> 00:11:51,880 Speaker 2: fourteen a lot of those teams won, and the teams 251 00:11:51,920 --> 00:11:54,520 Speaker 2: that maybe weren't quite expected to win, like Atroy is 252 00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 2: emerging and still playing well and has athletes that can 253 00:11:57,679 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 2: play well. And so I think there is a lot 254 00:11:59,920 --> 00:12:01,080 Speaker 2: of danger in that twelve to. 255 00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:05,199 Speaker 4: Fourteen range before we transition and talk about survivor pools, 256 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:07,160 Speaker 4: which is a little bit more advanced and maybe a 257 00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:10,200 Speaker 4: little bit more unique to the casual better What advice 258 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:12,439 Speaker 4: do you give to folks that are just parachuting in 259 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:14,719 Speaker 4: this is their one touch point with college basketball the 260 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:17,719 Speaker 4: entire season. They haven't been keeping keeping an eye on 261 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:20,400 Speaker 4: it or really keeping track of anything, either from a 262 00:12:20,480 --> 00:12:23,679 Speaker 4: strategy perspective or these are just some nuggets to know 263 00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:25,640 Speaker 4: that will make you feel a little bit more plugged 264 00:12:25,679 --> 00:12:26,840 Speaker 4: in to the big dance. 265 00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:30,880 Speaker 2: I mean, just if you're if you're not used to 266 00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:34,080 Speaker 2: playing and you're bouncing in, I would say avoid picking 267 00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:36,880 Speaker 2: too many upsets in your bracket, especially if you're playing 268 00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:41,040 Speaker 2: in a group of friends in a small pool. Individual 269 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 2: upsets are hard to pick. Like, nobody saw NC State coming. 270 00:12:44,559 --> 00:12:46,599 Speaker 2: NC State making the final four last year did not 271 00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:49,200 Speaker 2: kill you. You had to have connecticuts a champion. If 272 00:12:49,720 --> 00:12:53,040 Speaker 2: nobody had NC State probably, I mean in three hundred 273 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:56,160 Speaker 2: four hundred percent pools, nobody had them. The picks that 274 00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:59,200 Speaker 2: kill you are the popular teams you fade, like if 275 00:12:59,240 --> 00:13:03,080 Speaker 2: you're like I'm I'm gonna fade Auburn, and if Auburn 276 00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 2: wins the title, your dead. That's the picks that kill you. 277 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 2: And so I would say, you know, you got to 278 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:09,800 Speaker 2: get that final four right. You got to get the 279 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:11,560 Speaker 2: right combination of the one and two seeds. But there's 280 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 2: so many combinations. I think you can be chalky and 281 00:13:14,400 --> 00:13:17,040 Speaker 2: just pick the right combinations of one, two, three seeds 282 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:20,160 Speaker 2: this year and do well. So don't get too crazy 283 00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:22,280 Speaker 2: at the top in the final rounds of your bracket. 284 00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:24,839 Speaker 2: The other thing is, like I said, top of the 285 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 2: bracket's pretty strong compared to recent history. 286 00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:29,959 Speaker 3: Will that hold. 287 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:32,360 Speaker 2: I think there's some injury question marks in like the 288 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 2: three seed range that could cause some issues. But at 289 00:13:35,679 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 2: the top I have a hard time seeing a lot 290 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:42,360 Speaker 2: of these teams losing so I think you just focus 291 00:13:42,440 --> 00:13:46,200 Speaker 2: in on the chalk and look at some popular numbers. 292 00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:48,800 Speaker 2: We have that to differentiate some of them. But you know, 293 00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:50,760 Speaker 2: you don't have to get too crazy in a bracket pool. 294 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 2: You can win a bracket contest going one v one 295 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:54,839 Speaker 2: in the final, because a lot of people don't like 296 00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 2: to do that. They like to pick one one seed 297 00:13:56,920 --> 00:14:01,360 Speaker 2: and then one flyer. You can just you know, Connecticut 298 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:04,319 Speaker 2: Purdue last year wasn't that popular of a combo. It 299 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:07,560 Speaker 2: won you holes and it was sitting right there. So anyway, 300 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:09,680 Speaker 2: I don't think you should shy away from Duke Florida 301 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:12,400 Speaker 2: to Florida, to Duke Auburn, Florida, Houston. 302 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:13,720 Speaker 3: Just have the right tambo. 303 00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:15,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with the top teams. 304 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:18,080 Speaker 4: One of the issues that I have year over year 305 00:14:18,280 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 4: is that there's certain teams, and we've seen it with 306 00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:23,640 Speaker 4: Nate Oates Alabama squads. If the three pointers aren't falling, 307 00:14:23,680 --> 00:14:25,880 Speaker 4: they could lose to just about anybody. If they're making 308 00:14:25,920 --> 00:14:28,320 Speaker 4: twelve to fifteen threes, they could win the national championship. 309 00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:30,480 Speaker 4: That's what I would refer to as a high variance team, 310 00:14:30,640 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 4: just based on their three point volume and their accuracy, 311 00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:36,560 Speaker 4: which sometimes in neutral sites. We've seen it with NCAA 312 00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:39,200 Speaker 4: tournament games as well, where they use different basketballs and 313 00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 4: all of a sudden, teams are shooting fifteen percent from 314 00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:43,640 Speaker 4: three if that's their only path forward. 315 00:14:44,040 --> 00:14:46,200 Speaker 1: Sometimes that can scare me away a little bit. 316 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:47,720 Speaker 4: You look at the top teams at least on the 317 00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:50,320 Speaker 4: one line, all of these teams can win with their defense. 318 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:53,000 Speaker 4: So even if the shots aren't falling in the first weekend, 319 00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:55,400 Speaker 4: they can certainly, you know, just grind out some wins 320 00:14:55,440 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 4: in the half court. So just somebody to consider if 321 00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:00,000 Speaker 4: a team, whether it's one of the top seeded teams 322 00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:02,680 Speaker 4: where you're looking at a Cinderella, are they dependent on 323 00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:06,000 Speaker 4: one thing turnover margin, three points, you know, getting to 324 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:06,640 Speaker 4: the foul line. 325 00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:07,920 Speaker 1: It's on things that if. 326 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:09,600 Speaker 4: It's taken away all of a sudden, they become a 327 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 4: pedestrian team. 328 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 2: Alabama had that run last year and they were very 329 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:15,040 Speaker 2: offensively skewed, but we've seen teams like that. 330 00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:15,440 Speaker 3: Falter. 331 00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:18,200 Speaker 2: I think if you are strong in areas like rebounding, 332 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:21,120 Speaker 2: you aren't relying on outside you and then when it happens, 333 00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 2: then you're just getting a bonus in the tournament. And 334 00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:25,200 Speaker 2: so I do think you want to think about that. 335 00:15:25,280 --> 00:15:26,840 Speaker 2: I think some of the higher variance teams in this 336 00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:29,600 Speaker 2: year's tournament are also these injuries situations like Texas, Tek, 337 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:33,560 Speaker 2: Iowa State the three line Those teams could flame out 338 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:35,440 Speaker 2: early because of the injuries, or they could go on 339 00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 2: a run, and so that also increases the variants. Illinois 340 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 2: just because they've been so up and down with their lineups, 341 00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 2: they've played like a one seat at times and played 342 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:46,560 Speaker 2: like they shouldn't be in the tournament at other times. 343 00:15:47,160 --> 00:15:49,520 Speaker 2: It seems like that are high variants. And then yeah, 344 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:51,120 Speaker 2: a lot of these mid major shoot the ball a lot, 345 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:54,920 Speaker 2: and so that it does increase variants in these early 346 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:55,520 Speaker 2: round games. 347 00:15:56,880 --> 00:16:00,440 Speaker 4: Let's transition to my favorite style of marshmadows, which is 348 00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:03,440 Speaker 4: the survivor pool. It's pretty simple, whether you have to 349 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:06,200 Speaker 4: pick two winners on Thursday, Friday or just one winner 350 00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:08,720 Speaker 4: every single day, it's one and done, meaning you can 351 00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:11,160 Speaker 4: use that team to survive, but you cannot use them again, 352 00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:13,920 Speaker 4: which means there's two separate ways that you can get booted. 353 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:19,240 Speaker 1: You can either lose and you know, unfortunately in that situation. 354 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:21,360 Speaker 4: You're done from the pool, or you have to buy 355 00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:24,360 Speaker 4: back and there's some prohibitive costs and also strategy to 356 00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:27,240 Speaker 4: consider or which happens to me many times. 357 00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:28,440 Speaker 1: I just run out of teams. 358 00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:30,760 Speaker 4: All the teams that are left, I've already used all 359 00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 4: of them, and you get eliminated in that way. So 360 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:36,720 Speaker 4: kind of walk us through what it's like to strategize 361 00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 4: these and how people should think of them in terms 362 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:41,280 Speaker 4: of approaching it as opposed like just from a big 363 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:44,280 Speaker 4: picture perspective, coming in perhaps doing it for the first time. 364 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:47,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean what you said is absolutely right, Like 365 00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:50,280 Speaker 2: you could run out of teams, and there's also risk earlier, 366 00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:52,840 Speaker 2: there's risk. There's two types of risks in Survival Pool. 367 00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:55,640 Speaker 2: There's the risk I lose right now, and there's the 368 00:16:55,760 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 2: risk this team burns me because they just keep going 369 00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:00,640 Speaker 2: on the run. And it's not always the team think either, 370 00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:04,600 Speaker 2: right Florida Atlantic, people loaded up on Florida Atlantic because 371 00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:10,000 Speaker 2: they caught Fairley Dickinson coup to what in the eight 372 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:13,399 Speaker 2: or nine versus sixteen game, loaded up on them in 373 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:15,320 Speaker 2: the second round, then they reached the final four. Those 374 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:17,320 Speaker 2: those people are probably lost picking against them in the 375 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:17,840 Speaker 2: nearly eight. 376 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:18,480 Speaker 3: And so. 377 00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:21,640 Speaker 2: It's not always the teams you think that you want 378 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:24,600 Speaker 2: to fade that end up costing you. But that's how 379 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:26,359 Speaker 2: it works. I mean, so you just got to make 380 00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:28,920 Speaker 2: the decisions based on the information you have going into 381 00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:31,600 Speaker 2: that game, and you got to assess both types of risks. 382 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 2: What are the odds this team still around in the 383 00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:36,520 Speaker 2: final four based on where we are now and could 384 00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:38,200 Speaker 2: win the national title? So I need them for that 385 00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:40,719 Speaker 2: final pick versus what are the odds they win now 386 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:43,840 Speaker 2: or get eliminated? And you balance both because, like let's 387 00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:47,920 Speaker 2: say Duke in round one this year, Duke is according 388 00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:50,440 Speaker 2: ard like fifty percent to make the final four. I 389 00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:53,280 Speaker 2: think in the betting market, you might be a minus number, 390 00:17:53,960 --> 00:17:57,600 Speaker 2: and so they've got a lot of you use them now, 391 00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:02,119 Speaker 2: you risk being burned, like coin flip, but they're a 392 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:08,119 Speaker 2: lock to win in around one. Virtually Baylor or Mississippi 393 00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:10,320 Speaker 2: State are a toss up game, so they're like fifty 394 00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:12,240 Speaker 2: percent win now, but they're not going to burn you. 395 00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:14,560 Speaker 3: It's two sides of the same coin. 396 00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:18,000 Speaker 2: I think both are picks that are not the best 397 00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:21,159 Speaker 2: pick you could make, but they are similar picks on 398 00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:24,040 Speaker 2: different sides of that coin. Like you're just shifting where 399 00:18:24,119 --> 00:18:26,159 Speaker 2: your risk is entirely. So I think the picks you 400 00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:27,639 Speaker 2: want to focus on are the ones that give you 401 00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:30,480 Speaker 2: a good chance to advance. But you think that team's 402 00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:33,240 Speaker 2: odds of going deep or less than maybe other people think, 403 00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:36,359 Speaker 2: or maybe they're a three seed that has a great 404 00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 2: matchup right away, but then it gets tough by the 405 00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:41,199 Speaker 2: sweet sixteen, and so you're like, I think I can 406 00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:42,960 Speaker 2: use them now, And so you want to try to 407 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:45,280 Speaker 2: identify things, or you find the seven to ten matchup 408 00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:47,560 Speaker 2: where you're like, I think I'm getting good odds now. 409 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:50,359 Speaker 2: I think this team's sixty five seventy percent to win, 410 00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:51,560 Speaker 2: and I want to take them. 411 00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:55,560 Speaker 4: Yeah, you bring up an interesting point about trying not 412 00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:58,119 Speaker 4: to get too far ahead of yourself in terms of 413 00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:01,320 Speaker 4: what the hypothetical matchups could be, because you can get burns, 414 00:19:01,359 --> 00:19:03,520 Speaker 4: and crazy things happen and there's upsets, and all of 415 00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:05,359 Speaker 4: a sudden, you could have a huge favorite in the 416 00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:07,760 Speaker 4: sweet sixteen that you thought was going to run into 417 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:09,879 Speaker 4: a higher seed and be an underdog, and that all 418 00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:12,280 Speaker 4: of a sudden becomes a layup. When I start to 419 00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:15,400 Speaker 4: look at this particular year, though, I look at Houston, 420 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:17,760 Speaker 4: and I look at Auburn, and to a lesser degree, 421 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:20,640 Speaker 4: I look at Florida, where yes, it's basically a free 422 00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:22,879 Speaker 4: square to get them against the sixteen seed. They're not 423 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,040 Speaker 4: going to lose those games. And then the committee did 424 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:27,640 Speaker 4: them no favors whatsoever. Having the Zags in the second 425 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:30,760 Speaker 4: round against a Houston team that may be shorthanded, Florida 426 00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:33,560 Speaker 4: potentially having to play Yukon, and then Auburn having to 427 00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:36,840 Speaker 4: play against Louisville. These are tough matchups that I would 428 00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:39,639 Speaker 4: almost rather play in the sweet sixteen as opposed to 429 00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:40,399 Speaker 4: the round to thirty two. 430 00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:42,800 Speaker 2: There for sure, I don't think you're picking those games 431 00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:44,560 Speaker 2: in the sweet sixteen, and it's just a question whether 432 00:19:44,600 --> 00:19:46,080 Speaker 2: you want to save them in case they go to 433 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:49,960 Speaker 2: the final four or in the Elite eight round. I 434 00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:52,080 Speaker 2: think I probably still lean more to save. But if 435 00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:55,320 Speaker 2: I'm playing like a portfolio of injuries, which I think 436 00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:57,160 Speaker 2: you should do, Like if I'm playing this contest, I'm 437 00:19:57,160 --> 00:20:00,119 Speaker 2: finding my price point and then dividing injuries up. I 438 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:01,520 Speaker 2: don't want to play one entry. I want to play 439 00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:04,440 Speaker 2: like ten I want to cover combos. I want to 440 00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:08,280 Speaker 2: have like somewhere I picked Tennessee right away, but some 441 00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:10,320 Speaker 2: where I have Tennessee available and just see what works. 442 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:13,680 Speaker 2: That's kind of how I would play it, and so yeah, 443 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:16,680 Speaker 2: I wouldn't rule out using any team. I would probably 444 00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:20,920 Speaker 2: employ like a combined approach where I'm like sprinkling some 445 00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:24,280 Speaker 2: types of teams early and saving the money the other entries. 446 00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:27,639 Speaker 1: Now, I think the casual gambler, even if they can 447 00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:28,080 Speaker 1: get their. 448 00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:32,200 Speaker 4: Own strategy fine tunes calibrated, they feel confident about the 449 00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:35,280 Speaker 4: teams that they're putting forward and hoping to catch, you know, 450 00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:38,480 Speaker 4: certain matchups in you know, the first weekends on Saturday 451 00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:41,520 Speaker 4: and Sunday. All that's great, but if you don't understand 452 00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:45,040 Speaker 4: how long the average player is in and alive in 453 00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:47,359 Speaker 4: a pool like this, you don't necessarily have a feel 454 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:49,480 Speaker 4: for when you should get aggressive, when you should try 455 00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:51,840 Speaker 4: to save teams. How long is the average entry and 456 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:52,680 Speaker 4: a survivor pool? 457 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:54,200 Speaker 3: Not very long. 458 00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:57,480 Speaker 2: If you make it with an entry to the sweet 459 00:20:57,520 --> 00:20:59,560 Speaker 2: sixteen year above the game, probably, especially if you're to 460 00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:02,320 Speaker 2: make more picks now, unless you're using all your one 461 00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:05,720 Speaker 2: seeds and then you're in trouble longer term. Probably so 462 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:07,680 Speaker 2: if you're playing the game at all to like try 463 00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:09,480 Speaker 2: to set your ownself up to win a big pool, 464 00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:11,920 Speaker 2: but in the final four, you're taking on risk and 465 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 2: your odds are probably underd fifty percent to make the 466 00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:18,840 Speaker 2: Sweet sixteen, but you know that's how it's played. Now, 467 00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:22,000 Speaker 2: when do you want to set up scenarios? I don't 468 00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:24,120 Speaker 2: think you worry about popularity as much. In the first 469 00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:27,080 Speaker 2: round there's enough options. People are spread out, but you 470 00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:31,200 Speaker 2: will find like whatever fourteen seed wins, if one happens, 471 00:21:31,280 --> 00:21:34,280 Speaker 2: or thirteen seed, people will play against them heavily in 472 00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:36,360 Speaker 2: the next round, with like the five seed to six seed, 473 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:38,520 Speaker 2: the seven And then you've got to decide do I 474 00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:41,440 Speaker 2: want to fade the crowd, because if it happens Missouri, 475 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:45,360 Speaker 2: my Missouri Tigers lost to Princeton a couple of years 476 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:48,560 Speaker 2: ago the fifteen seed, and everybody was on them in 477 00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:52,480 Speaker 2: survivor pools. And if you avoid that team boom, you 478 00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,119 Speaker 2: are suddenly in a pool that got wiped out. And 479 00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:57,040 Speaker 2: so those are the strategy you got to think about. 480 00:21:57,119 --> 00:21:58,680 Speaker 2: Do I want to say future value or do I 481 00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:00,240 Speaker 2: want to play the crowd? And that starts up in 482 00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:02,720 Speaker 2: like the second round, and definitely in the sweet sixteen. 483 00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:05,360 Speaker 2: And then you have to be comfortable taking an underdog 484 00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:08,280 Speaker 2: at some point. I guarantee you you almost will have 485 00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:10,080 Speaker 2: to take an underdog at some point to win in 486 00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:11,040 Speaker 2: March Madness Survival. 487 00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:15,440 Speaker 4: As our illustrious producer Matt Mitchell likexis say, I'm likey 488 00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:18,399 Speaker 4: hedges from time to time. I have no problem if 489 00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:20,280 Speaker 4: I make it to the Sweet sixteen or Elite eight 490 00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:23,000 Speaker 4: and there's a Cinderella that's making a run, if I'm 491 00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:25,640 Speaker 4: fading them, hey sprinkle on the money line the other way, 492 00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:27,920 Speaker 4: maybe even just to cover your costs. There's different ways 493 00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:31,280 Speaker 4: to hedge out beyond just having multiple entries in some 494 00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:33,560 Speaker 4: of these pools. So just somebody to consider for people 495 00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:35,800 Speaker 4: who are getting into this for the first time. Any 496 00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:39,359 Speaker 4: other thoughts on survivor pool play and some strategy that 497 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:41,040 Speaker 4: you just try to give, you know, people who are 498 00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:43,000 Speaker 4: participating it the first time. I think we hit a 499 00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:45,320 Speaker 4: lot of the main buckets here, But in terms of 500 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:48,200 Speaker 4: let's bring it to twenty twenty five, we talked about 501 00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:50,520 Speaker 4: the strength of the top those three seats a little 502 00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:53,119 Speaker 4: bit weaker, you know, Gilbert being out for the season 503 00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:56,399 Speaker 4: and this tournament, certainly for Iowa State Texas Tech having 504 00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:59,040 Speaker 4: a huge variance in terms of li lineup, not only 505 00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:02,359 Speaker 4: players being healthy and available, but also playing at the 506 00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:04,359 Speaker 4: level they did when they were a top ten team 507 00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:07,960 Speaker 4: across all the analytical platforms about a month ago. So 508 00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:11,640 Speaker 4: when you think about the let's start with Thursday Friday, 509 00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:14,280 Speaker 4: where does your mind go, Let's just talk about your 510 00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:18,520 Speaker 4: picks and not necessarily even the overarching strategy of survivor 511 00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 4: pool play. 512 00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:24,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, my mind goes to finding those three seeds to 513 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,320 Speaker 2: four seeds. Well, I think the five seeds are a 514 00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:29,280 Speaker 2: little too risky, and some of them that I'm playing, 515 00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:31,560 Speaker 2: but there are some six and sevens that I'm willing 516 00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:34,680 Speaker 2: to play on future value, like maybe at Kansas, maybe 517 00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:39,359 Speaker 2: at Kansas to win one game, right, maybe Againzaga because 518 00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:42,400 Speaker 2: then I'm playing that they won't be Houston, but they're 519 00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:43,840 Speaker 2: a favorite in this round, right. 520 00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:46,919 Speaker 3: Or I'm looking at the three seeds. 521 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,200 Speaker 2: Maybe they have some risk, but I'm willing to take 522 00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:51,119 Speaker 2: on that risk because i think that risk also makes it. 523 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:52,760 Speaker 3: Unlikely they make a deep run. 524 00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:55,240 Speaker 2: So maybe you're just like I'm going to take a 525 00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:58,040 Speaker 2: risk on Kentucky that they that they can beat a 526 00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:02,080 Speaker 2: fourteen seed and maybe the injuries just keep them from 527 00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:03,359 Speaker 2: making a deeper run in this tournament. 528 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:05,240 Speaker 3: And so those are the kind of things that I'm 529 00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:06,240 Speaker 3: thinking about balancing. 530 00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:07,320 Speaker 1: And then the other thing I. 531 00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:09,480 Speaker 2: Would say we haven't talked about, but I'll cover this 532 00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:12,000 Speaker 2: in the article for subscribers. But you have to think 533 00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:17,160 Speaker 2: about the combinations of teams used, because some teams play 534 00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:21,360 Speaker 2: on Thursday, Saturday, and week one, and then we'll play 535 00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:23,520 Speaker 2: teams in the same region that played on a different 536 00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:27,240 Speaker 2: day in the first week, depending on the East, the West, 537 00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:30,640 Speaker 2: and Midwest, and so you can't use teams that don't 538 00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:33,480 Speaker 2: compliment each other. You might otherwise get in a situation 539 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:36,359 Speaker 2: where those teams advanced. You find yourself with a region 540 00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:39,119 Speaker 2: where you've used three teams, and that's not good. And 541 00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:41,159 Speaker 2: so you do have to think about how you balance 542 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:44,440 Speaker 2: your first round picks across days, and then how you're 543 00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:46,680 Speaker 2: setting up not using too many teams from the same 544 00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:48,160 Speaker 2: region for the next week. 545 00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:51,320 Speaker 4: Sam, I'm in a pool with you. It's a smaller 546 00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:53,960 Speaker 4: sized pool. You know, our picks are locked in. You 547 00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:56,040 Speaker 4: asked me who do you got today? And I say, 548 00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:59,920 Speaker 4: Colorado State over Memphis is my survivor pick? Or Drake 549 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,760 Speaker 4: over Missoo or you see San Diego over Michigan. Am 550 00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:06,159 Speaker 4: I too cute by half? Or do you kind of 551 00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:08,920 Speaker 4: view that as a heady move? Maybe a plus? Ev 552 00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:11,480 Speaker 4: move if I can just make it through that first 553 00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:14,280 Speaker 4: risky pick, Like, what is your gut reaction when someone 554 00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:15,040 Speaker 4: shares something. 555 00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:17,520 Speaker 3: Like that, Yeah, well, Colorado State's favorite. 556 00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:20,359 Speaker 2: So I don't think that's too cute because I do 557 00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:22,159 Speaker 2: think they're the more likely team to win. I do 558 00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:25,119 Speaker 2: think it with these underdogs, Like I said, you're not 559 00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:27,760 Speaker 2: going to have such a popularity, Like, if I'm playing 560 00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:29,840 Speaker 2: a dog, I want to get the crowd against me. 561 00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:32,240 Speaker 2: I want to leverage that on upset. So I'm not 562 00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:34,240 Speaker 2: sure I want to do that in round one on 563 00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:37,880 Speaker 2: an outright dog, but I'm willing to do it after 564 00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:41,439 Speaker 2: round one if I think the popularity dictates it. If 565 00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:43,119 Speaker 2: I can catch twenty percent or more of the pool 566 00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:45,840 Speaker 2: on the team i'm picking against, I love that on 567 00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:48,720 Speaker 2: an underdog, right. I don't think that's going to happen 568 00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:50,080 Speaker 2: with some of these first round plays. 569 00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:53,000 Speaker 1: Last one to get you out of here? 570 00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:56,280 Speaker 4: On which first round matchup do you think is going 571 00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:58,520 Speaker 4: to be the grave digger just sending people out of 572 00:25:58,600 --> 00:25:59,920 Speaker 4: Survivor pools right away? 573 00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:02,280 Speaker 1: I'll throw out a couple. 574 00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:04,840 Speaker 4: I don't think Michigan is going to be a popular 575 00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:07,120 Speaker 4: pick because I believe they're going to be playing their 576 00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:09,240 Speaker 4: fourth game in less than a week at altitude in 577 00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:11,760 Speaker 4: Denver against the San Diego team that leads the nation 578 00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:14,479 Speaker 4: in turnover margin. They actually have the second best turnover 579 00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:17,560 Speaker 4: margin in the last eight years of college hoops, so 580 00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:20,080 Speaker 4: that helps them offset the fact that they don't get 581 00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:23,320 Speaker 4: anything on the offensive glass. So the tradings absolutely could 582 00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:26,280 Speaker 4: send Michigan home. But in that same pod Yale did 583 00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:29,200 Speaker 4: this last year, they upset Auburn, and now they're drawing 584 00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:30,840 Speaker 4: an A and M team that's outside of the top 585 00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:34,320 Speaker 4: three hundred and three point percentage accuracy. If the threes 586 00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:36,000 Speaker 4: are not falling, Yes, A and M is going to 587 00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:39,040 Speaker 4: grab fifteen to twenty offensive rebounds in this game. But 588 00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:41,240 Speaker 4: I think Yale could be one of those teams to 589 00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:44,600 Speaker 4: play spoiler. So just looking at that region, I'm already 590 00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:46,760 Speaker 4: a little bit worried for any survivor picks. 591 00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:47,760 Speaker 1: They're going with the favorites. 592 00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:52,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, oh, I think yes, the survivor pools, it'll come 593 00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:54,200 Speaker 2: down to how many of these four and fives lose 594 00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:56,920 Speaker 2: as to how big the first round. Why about is 595 00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:58,640 Speaker 2: I think I think you're going to have most people 596 00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:01,960 Speaker 2: on those teams. You said, the risk is definitely there. 597 00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:05,680 Speaker 2: Not only what you cided. You see San Diego's turnovers, 598 00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:09,880 Speaker 2: don't look at Michigan's turnover eight on offense either if 599 00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:10,560 Speaker 2: you brutal. 600 00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:13,600 Speaker 3: And so you're like, which Michigan team's going to show up? 601 00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:15,240 Speaker 2: The one that played really well for three days or 602 00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:16,920 Speaker 2: the one that went like two and thirteen against the 603 00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:19,600 Speaker 2: spread and was fading for two months straight in the 604 00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:23,879 Speaker 2: Big Ten regular season, And so I think there's definite 605 00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:24,480 Speaker 2: risk there. 606 00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:27,879 Speaker 4: Last question for you in terms of if you have 607 00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,080 Speaker 4: a feel for overall size of the pool year and 608 00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:33,120 Speaker 4: let's call it two hundred or five hundred or one thousand, 609 00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:36,520 Speaker 4: do you have any ratio that you like to stay 610 00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:38,920 Speaker 4: tethered to where it's you know, if there's a thousand entries, 611 00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:41,600 Speaker 4: I'd like to have five entries. If there's only one hundred, 612 00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:43,960 Speaker 4: I'm fine with having one or two. Or do you 613 00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:45,840 Speaker 4: kind of just play it, you know, by year each 614 00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:46,560 Speaker 4: each time. 615 00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:47,080 Speaker 1: That you get invited. 616 00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:49,960 Speaker 2: I mean, obviously your own budget's going to be the 617 00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:51,959 Speaker 2: biggest factor of how much you want to play, right 618 00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:53,879 Speaker 2: But I think as long as you're not playing like 619 00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:55,520 Speaker 2: in a large one, I probably don't want to be 620 00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,040 Speaker 2: more than one percent. And I probably won't get to 621 00:27:58,119 --> 00:27:59,840 Speaker 2: that in a super larx spender, right, You're not gonna 622 00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:01,080 Speaker 2: get high in. 623 00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:01,639 Speaker 3: A small one. 624 00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:03,480 Speaker 2: I probably don't even want to be more than five percent. 625 00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:04,879 Speaker 2: So then like at twenty in three, I don't want 626 00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:07,040 Speaker 2: to have multiple injuries because I want to have other 627 00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:09,760 Speaker 2: people paying into the pot. Maybe if it's fifty, all 628 00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:12,480 Speaker 2: have two, one hundred, all have three to five, right, 629 00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:14,840 Speaker 2: And those are kind of like the upper end of 630 00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:17,680 Speaker 2: where I think you start to lose ev by paying 631 00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:20,480 Speaker 2: yourself and taking too many scenarios. 632 00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:23,760 Speaker 4: Our thanks again to Jason Lisk and one final reminder, 633 00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:27,119 Speaker 4: The ple Genius is extending special March Madness pricing just 634 00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:30,600 Speaker 4: for Action listeners. They've got options for March Madness, NFL pools, 635 00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:32,959 Speaker 4: golf pools, really whatever you're into. So if you want 636 00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:35,240 Speaker 4: to get an edge in your bracket pool or survivor 637 00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:38,000 Speaker 4: pool this week, just visit the link in this episode's 638 00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:41,240 Speaker 4: description to see all the offers and discounts. We'll return 639 00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:44,000 Speaker 4: here on the Action Network podcast with some more March 640 00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:45,760 Speaker 4: Madness player prop episodes. 641 00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:48,760 Speaker 1: Last year, doctor Nick was just scorchin hot. 642 00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:50,680 Speaker 4: I think he hit eighty percent at one point, So 643 00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:52,160 Speaker 4: you want to make sure to tune in for that, 644 00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,240 Speaker 4: but for our primary March Madness betting coverage, including our 645 00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:58,000 Speaker 4: exhaustive first round betting previews, be sure to check out 646 00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:01,120 Speaker 4: Stucky Myself, the Three Man leave our whole team over 647 00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:01,520 Speaker 4: on the. 648 00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:03,280 Speaker 1: Big Bets on Campus Podcasts. 649 00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:05,479 Speaker 4: Thanks again for listening, and we'll see you right here 650 00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:07,520 Speaker 4: next time on the Action Network podcast. 651 00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:19,280 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 652 00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:22,120 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 653 00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:25,200 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler