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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number.

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Speaker 2: One show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we.

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Speaker 2: Go throwing a job.

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Speaker 1: We're sitting up to cash touchdown.

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Speaker 3: And we'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 3: they go to win.

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Speaker 2: God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 1: Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money. All right, this is the

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Speaker 2: ultimate Kabaki.

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Speaker 1: Wanna pall.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway and welcome to another edition of

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Speaker 3: the Action Network Podcast. Conference Championship Week is here. I

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Speaker 3: am Chris Raybon. My co host Stucky will join us

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Speaker 3: shortly and we'll be breaking down Conference championship games. That is,

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Speaker 3: of course, the Kansas City Chiefs facing the Tennessee Titans

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Speaker 3: in the early game, and then the San Francisco forty

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Speaker 3: nine ers hosting the Minnesota Vikings the waight game.

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Speaker 2: We're going to be.

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Speaker 3: Breaking down our hicks in a revised version of the

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Speaker 3: Sunday six pack less game. So we'll only do two

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Speaker 3: picks a piece, but we'll hit on both sides, both totals,

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Speaker 3: and pretty much any other type of bet that stands

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Speaker 3: out as of value in each game.

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Speaker 2: We'll jump right into the six pack.

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Speaker 3: But before we get into that, just a reminder down

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Speaker 3: all the Free Action Network app for real time odds,

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Speaker 3: box scores, and the capability to track every bet that

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Speaker 3: you make.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's get right into our Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 1: Thirsty for action, Let's crack open the Sunday six.

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Speaker 3: Pack, and of course, joining me as always the Prime

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Speaker 3: Minister of Degenerate Nation, my man Stucky Stuck. How's it going,

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Speaker 3: How was last week? What did you think of the games?

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Speaker 3: What's going on with life?

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Speaker 2: What's up?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? Well, I mean I was in Vegas for the

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Speaker 1: Division round and my Ravens went down, which sucked, especially

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Speaker 1: for the amount of money I had on them live.

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Speaker 1: I kept betting them live. They had ninety six plays

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Speaker 1: and twelve points. But you know, look, if you look

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Speaker 1: back all year long, they never had a game where

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Speaker 1: everything went wrong right, And one of the big things

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Speaker 1: that I talked about is you have to hang in early,

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Speaker 1: and Tennessee was able to do that. But this is

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Speaker 1: a team that was one hundred on fourth and short

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Speaker 1: throughout the season. You know they were. They fared well

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Speaker 1: in the turnover department all season. Well, you turn you

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Speaker 1: are over two on fourth and one one in your

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Speaker 1: own territory. And I agree with both decisions to go

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Speaker 1: for it, and that's what they've done all year, and

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Speaker 1: that's that's their mo. But if you go, oh for

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Speaker 1: two and fourth and one, and you turn it over

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Speaker 1: three times and the other team doesn't turn over all,

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Speaker 1: that's five nothing essentially in turnovers. You're not gonna win

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Speaker 1: many football games doing that. I mean, Derrek Hennery's still

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Speaker 1: just been outrageous. I mean, had Tannell didn't do anything

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Speaker 1: but continue the red zone dominance. You know, there was

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Speaker 1: like the deflected pick a butt touchdown on third like,

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Speaker 1: so there was a couple of plays here and there,

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Speaker 1: and you got to give Tennessee credit. We'll touch on

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Speaker 1: the other games really quickly. But the other day then

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Speaker 1: they had the National Championship Monday. A funny story that

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Speaker 1: I was going to write about, but I say for

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Speaker 1: the because I was told by a couple of people

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Speaker 1: that I was with not to write about it because

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Speaker 1: one of the people was not supposed to be there.

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Speaker 1: But this is just Vegas on a big weekend. So

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Speaker 1: I ended up becoming friends with Glenn Davis, big Baby's cousin,

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Speaker 1: so he watched the game with us at the Westgate

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Speaker 1: in our booth. We actually had another booth next to

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Speaker 1: us that no one showed up on, so he was

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Speaker 1: just sprawled out in there. Then after the game, I

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Speaker 1: am walking through Aria and run into and meet and

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Speaker 1: by meat. I just like my friend went over and

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Speaker 1: shook his hand, and then he was talking him and

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Speaker 1: I shook his hand. I'm Thatt Flave of Flave. But

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Speaker 1: the best part is I'm walking and I've had some

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Speaker 1: drinks and I see from behind me. I'll send you

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Speaker 1: this video there's a guy walking in a Raiders jacket

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Speaker 1: and you know, a very distinct haircut, and he's ahead

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Speaker 1: of me, and I said, that's Al Davis Junior, I swear.

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Speaker 1: So I caught up to him discreetly, or at least

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Speaker 1: I thought discreetly. And as I caught up to him,

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Speaker 1: rise it was him. He goes into the bathroom. So

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Speaker 1: I waited for him, and he came out of the

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Speaker 1: bathroom and then I was kind of like just hanging

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Speaker 1: around a little bit, and I casually walked next to

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Speaker 1: him and then I was just like, oh shit. I

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Speaker 1: talked to him for like ten minutes when he's like

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Speaker 1: the nicest guy ever. For some reason, I thought he

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Speaker 1: was not going to be nice I'm sure he gets,

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Speaker 1: you know, people coming up to him and stuff, and

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Speaker 1: but he wasn't annoyed. So yeah, within like a five

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Speaker 1: minute period, it was Flavor Flave and then David Stepp

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Speaker 1: pretty much sums up Vegas on on a big sports weekend.

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Speaker 3: That's that's pretty amazing. I mean, Flavor Flavor. I haven't

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Speaker 3: even I used to watch that show. I remember in college.

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Speaker 3: I used to watch that Flavor Flave show, like like Clockwork,

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Speaker 3: back when people used to still like get together to

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Speaker 3: watch TV shows because now that really only happens for sports.

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Speaker 1: But like Clockwork, did you instead a yeah, see what

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Speaker 1: I did? There?

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Speaker 2: See what I did? You know?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the Ravens game, I thought that was these games

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Speaker 3: because we'll get into it with Tennessee in case. But

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Speaker 3: I think both of those teams are tough to handicap

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Speaker 3: because there's all these kind of wide range of outcomes

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Speaker 3: that could occur. Still on I think the early game

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Speaker 3: script and once Lamar threw that pick and Tennessee was

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Speaker 3: able to kind of drive down the field, I think

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Speaker 3: it changed the way that game played out. But Tennessee, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: they did a lot of good things, and I think

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Speaker 3: not just on offense, you know, with getting Henry going

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Speaker 3: throughout that game. But but on defense and then I

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Speaker 3: mean Bill O'Brien and East Texans. I mean the one time,

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Speaker 3: you know, we talked about it on the pod last week,

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Speaker 3: we're like, all right, let's let's bet Casey early.

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Speaker 2: I think you had first half. I ended up.

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Speaker 1: I at least had a little first half money line.

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Speaker 3: What a prayer, right, yeah, And you know I had,

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Speaker 3: you know, I had first quarter and obviously the exact

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Speaker 3: opposite happens, and Houston gets a huge and then uh

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Speaker 3: completely collapses down a stretch, which I think just is

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Speaker 3: a testament to how good this Kansas City offense is

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Speaker 3: with Patrick Mahomes you know, healthy and all those guys healthy.

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Speaker 3: But I think it had it had an impact on

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Speaker 3: you know, the total for this this game, now, this

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Speaker 3: Casey Titans game.

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Speaker 2: So we'll get to that.

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Speaker 3: And I mean in the NFC games, they played out

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Speaker 3: a little more closely to how I thought they would.

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Speaker 3: You know, San Francisco didn't think Kirk Cousins was going

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Speaker 3: to have much luck, you know, throwing on that defense,

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Speaker 3: and he really didn't after that one play where they

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Speaker 3: left Witherspoon in and you know, they tried to retain

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Speaker 3: confidence in him and he got beat fell down. It's

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Speaker 3: tough call, but uh, after he went out, they really

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Speaker 3: allowed nothing through the air handle Minnesota and then unfortunately, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: I kind of had the same luck with the under

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Speaker 3: in that Green Bay game. I betted a bunch of

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Speaker 3: times live as well as a pregame, so we lost

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Speaker 3: a bunch of those.

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Speaker 2: But you know, the spread.

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Speaker 3: Both of those NFC spreads kind of played out how

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Speaker 3: I thought they would. I held off on Bettan on

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Speaker 3: the Titans game Ravens game spread total period, so I

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Speaker 3: only had three props. John new Smith unders both hit.

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Speaker 3: I had Tannehill. I think it was under fourteen and

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Speaker 3: a half rushing yards. He enters the last drive with

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Speaker 3: like fifteen or sixteen and then kneels down three times

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Speaker 3: and I win by like a half a yard. So wow,

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Speaker 3: it was like my first successful Tennessee betting game probably

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Speaker 3: of the season.

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Speaker 1: So the Jeff Fred game, tef Fred was dominant. It

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Speaker 1: was a good call by You deserve to cover, but

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Speaker 1: if you're Minnesota, you know, and I love the under.

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Speaker 1: I thought I was going to be a dogfight, which

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Speaker 1: ended up coming through. It was shaky for a little bit,

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Speaker 1: but I thought Minnesota was going to have to win

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Speaker 1: a really ugly game with the with Saffred's defense now healthy,

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Speaker 1: maybe arguably the best defense in the NFL. And if

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Speaker 1: you go on the road, you cannot muff a punt

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Speaker 1: at the ten. And then that picked their cousins through

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Speaker 1: and it leads to ten san Fran points. And you know,

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Speaker 1: without them, I think saf Fred still wins. But you

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Speaker 1: just you blew any chance you have with both those.

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Speaker 1: Now sanf Fran had a bad pick too, held them

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Speaker 1: the three Minnesota's pick. San Fran capitalized and got seven.

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Speaker 1: And then you add on that muff punt when you

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Speaker 1: just can't afford to do that when you were the

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Speaker 1: inferior team. And then the Packers Seahawks game, man, it

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Speaker 1: is it's wild that the Seattle is these playoff games

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Speaker 1: on the road are scripted. I mean, this is a

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Speaker 1: team in the nine games I wrote about this, the

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Speaker 1: nine games coming into this year before this year under

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Speaker 1: Pete Carroll on the road in the playoffs, the Seahawks

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Speaker 1: averaged four and a half points per first half. You know,

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Speaker 1: and then they come back and they trailed and they

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Speaker 1: never let in any first half coming into this year

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Speaker 1: on the road in the playoffs for eight or nine,

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Speaker 1: and then they came back and won a couple they

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Speaker 1: almost won a couple other ones. When they're down like

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Speaker 1: twenty nothing at the half. I mean they were shut

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Speaker 1: out four or five times, and then you know, they

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Speaker 1: unleash Wilson and he almost makes another miraculous comeback, but

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Speaker 1: Green Bay does survive. We'll get to that game, and

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Speaker 1: I know that we have a little shout out for Houston.

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Speaker 1: And the one thing that I will say about that

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Speaker 1: game is I was up I and I'm not. Wasn't

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Speaker 1: being Monday morning quarterback on that fourth in inches, calf,

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Speaker 1: But your defense stinks. You're up twenty one nothing on

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Speaker 1: the road. You have a chance, you know, and this

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Speaker 1: is you're playing a defense that can't stop the run,

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Speaker 1: and you were just getting two three yards at any

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Speaker 1: time you wanted. You don't go fourth in inches, I

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Speaker 1: thought at the time, or this gives Kansas City a

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Speaker 1: window to come back. I didn't dok they were going

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Speaker 1: to come back, particularly in the first half, but it

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Speaker 1: kind of just like, yeah, you were taking your foot

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Speaker 1: off the pedal. Now, what I will say is if

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Speaker 1: you want to do that. Fine, Like you're like, all right,

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Speaker 1: I'm up twenty four to nothing. You know, essentially four possessions,

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Speaker 1: I mean technically three on the road. But if you

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Speaker 1: do do that, then don't tilt that you didn't and

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Speaker 1: then go run a fake punt on fourth and five.

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Speaker 1: You got to be consistent, like stay aggressive or don't

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Speaker 1: be really like try to be by doing that, you said,

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Speaker 1: my defense is going to hold up and we're not

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Speaker 1: going to blow this lead. And so those two decisions

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Speaker 1: were absolutely massive and one of the wildest first halfs

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Speaker 1: of playo football've ever seen in my life. I felt

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Speaker 1: like I was watching a MAC game or like a

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Speaker 1: preseason game.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, okay, so let's that's a good segue.

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Speaker 3: Let's get into this Kansas City Chiefs Tennessee Titans.

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Speaker 2: And before we do that, our coach is pep talk,

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Speaker 2: we're gonna we're gonna go there early. This time.

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Speaker 3: It's gonna be dedicated to those Houston Texans and uh

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Speaker 3: it comes courtesy of former Colts coach Jim more Rip. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: we're dedicating it to Bill O'Brien and those Houston Texans

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Speaker 3: for that second half performance against the Kansas City Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: We got our ass kick in that second half. Coaching

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Speaker 1: did a horrible job. The players did a horrible job.

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Speaker 1: It sucked.

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Speaker 2: It's stunk.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean, Bill O'Brien, I don't even know

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Speaker 3: if you can say he's tilting. You know, tilting would

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Speaker 3: imply that he kind of knows the right decision and

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Speaker 3: makes the wrong one.

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Speaker 1: He was actually thinking about it, right, Like on the surface,

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Speaker 1: I agree with you. The surface, it seemed like that's

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Speaker 1: what you're doing, like, oh shit, and I agree it

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Speaker 1: probably wasn't, but it seemed like, oh, we didn't go

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Speaker 1: for that fourth and one, let me make up for

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Speaker 1: it here with a fourth and five fake punt. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: you're you're probably right. It probably wasn't even thought about.

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Speaker 3: It's like the opposite of that good will hunting where

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Speaker 3: where we're all the math is like whirling around. There's

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Speaker 3: like no math, there's just a puff. But let's get

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Speaker 3: into this Titans Casey game. And of course the Kansas

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Speaker 3: City Chiefs seven and a half point favorites.

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Speaker 2: That's where the line opened.

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Speaker 3: The total opened at fifty two fifty one at even

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Speaker 3: at some books, or fifty one and a half. It

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Speaker 3: has been bet up currently stands at fifty three as

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Speaker 3: far as the public money and bets, and you can

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Speaker 3: find this in the Action Network AAP. Sixty percent of

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Speaker 3: the bets fifty five percent of the money are on

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Speaker 3: the Kansas City Chiefs, the seven and a half point

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Speaker 3: favorites as we record this on a Wednesday night. For

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Speaker 3: the total, sixty five percent of the bets on the over,

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Speaker 3: fifty nine percent of.

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Speaker 2: The money on the over.

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Speaker 3: And I do think the second half stuck will play

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Speaker 3: a key role in this game because you know, number one,

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Speaker 3: it depends on Derrick Henry and in the game script

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Speaker 3: and if the Titans are able to kind of keep

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Speaker 3: it close and continue with staying with him in the

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Speaker 3: second half. And you just look at the Titans second

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Speaker 3: half record this year against the spread and it's fourteen

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Speaker 3: and four. They've covered fourteen of eighteen second half. So

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Speaker 3: how do you see this one playing out? And where

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Speaker 3: are you're going with your pick for this week?

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Speaker 1: Well, that was not a big part of last week.

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Speaker 1: Like one of the things the Titans do is you

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Speaker 1: have Derek Henry, who, by the way, is going to

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Speaker 1: be running in like I don't even check the temperatures,

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Speaker 1: but I assume like twenty degrees. They're just going to

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Speaker 1: be feeding him as long as they don't go down,

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Speaker 1: you know. And they're a team that even if they

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Speaker 1: go down fourteen in the first quarter, they're still going

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Speaker 1: to feed in, right, But there comes a point where

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Speaker 1: you probably got to start throwing. But you assume he's

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Speaker 1: going to get twenty five thirty carries in this game,

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Speaker 1: especially against the Chiefs defense. But one of the things

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Speaker 1: that why they're so successful in the second half is

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Speaker 1: they are wearing teams down, they're wearing defenses down, and

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Speaker 1: then just on the second half, it's just now Henry's

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Speaker 1: having even more success and you're possessing the ball, which

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Speaker 1: is one of the key things that the Ravens didn't

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Speaker 1: do last week is that there's fourth down. You know,

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Speaker 1: when you turn it over, you don't convert on those

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Speaker 1: fourth downs. That's you're not controlling the ball as a

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Speaker 1: ball control offense, and then you're giving the ball right

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Speaker 1: back to Tennessee who was able to control and then

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Speaker 1: Henry just ran wild. So I mean, but the first

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Speaker 1: thing you have to look at here with Kansas City's

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Speaker 1: run defense, it is a joke, Like it's not a

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Speaker 1: fake narrative or anything. It's really bad. And last week

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Speaker 1: on the podcast, I went through player by player on

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Speaker 1: a couple of guys on their edge, some of the

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Speaker 1: worst in the league against the run, all their linebackers.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they're not even rated in the top sixty

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Speaker 1: seventy mon qualified linebackers. And then you have the question

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Speaker 1: of Chris Jones, who didn't play in that first game.

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Speaker 1: Henry ran for one hundred and eighty eight yards and

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Speaker 1: it was a game that Kansasy led I should know,

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Speaker 1: twenty nine to twenty in the fourth quarter and a

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Speaker 1: bunch of fluky things happened and Tennessee ended up winning.

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Speaker 1: But there was no Chris Jones in that game either.

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Speaker 1: He's huge up front, and something else to note, no

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Speaker 1: Thornhill at safety. You saw that big play. It was

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Speaker 1: kind of a blown coverage on the outside. But what

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Speaker 1: does Tennessee want to do? They want to just run

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Speaker 1: up to Henry a bunch and then set up play action.

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Speaker 1: And given the Chiefs run defense, you're gonna have these

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Speaker 1: safeties creeping up and maybe you're going to see a

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Speaker 1: potential number of shots I think completed to if this

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Speaker 1: game is close and Henry is just eating them alive

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Speaker 1: up front. So that is the worry if you're a

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Speaker 1: Kansas City fan on the other side of the ball,

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Speaker 1: I just don't know how this Tennessee secondary can really

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Speaker 1: slow down Mahomes. I mean, Mahomes is his first game

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Speaker 1: back from his knee injury. The first time I played,

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Speaker 1: he still threw for almost four hundred yards maybe more somewhere.

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Speaker 2: Four forty six I believe it was.

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Speaker 1: That'd be a huge day. You know. Now you have

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Speaker 1: Logan Ryan, who's who's actually pretty good against the run,

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Speaker 1: and I thought that's huge against the Chiefs and now,

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Speaker 1: but he might not play and he was sick, but

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Speaker 1: he's not gonna able to cover anyone. The slot is

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Speaker 1: one of the worst slock corners. I mean, Tyreek Kill

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Speaker 1: came out today and said, no one can cover us,

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Speaker 1: and when they're healthy. He's right. So that's the concern

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Speaker 1: for Tennessee. And that's why you need to possess the

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Speaker 1: ball for as long as you can. So it's an

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Speaker 1: interesting It's an interesting game from a total perspective, which

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Speaker 1: I think you're going to get into. Yeah, because if

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Speaker 1: Tennessee is just churning the ball and they're not a

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Speaker 1: fast paced team. Just because they're running it so much.

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Speaker 1: You know that's going to help the under. The Makanda

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Speaker 1: City has the ball though, they're going to play faster

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Speaker 1: and they should be able to throw on Tennessee, and

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Speaker 1: then a lot of it's going to come down to

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Speaker 1: ken Tennessee sustain this insane red zone touchdown percentage. They

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Speaker 1: don't use their kicker. I mean, they're ninety percent of

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Speaker 1: plus since Tannahill came in and scoring touchdowns in the

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Speaker 1: red zone. That's historic, historically great. The Ravens were number

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Speaker 1: two in the NFL this year like sixty eight percent.

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Speaker 1: So I think it's a fascinating game from a total

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Speaker 1: and a side perspective. I think ultimately that Henry's going

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Speaker 1: to have a ton of success, especially if Jone's out

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Speaker 1: that's gonna set up some play action. I don't think

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Speaker 1: Tennessee is going to win this game, but this reminds

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Speaker 1: me a lot of some old Ravens Patriots games when

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Speaker 1: the Ravens go up there's a big under of the

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Speaker 1: catch in seven seven and a half. It's a tough

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Speaker 1: minded team and they'll find a way to cover. And

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Speaker 1: you know, the extra day of rest for Tennessee. It's

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Speaker 1: got to help a little bit. It's a team plan.

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Speaker 1: It's fourth straight road game, which you have to note,

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Speaker 1: so getting a little an extra day should help. With

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Speaker 1: The defense is as bagged up. They have one really

356
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Speaker 1: reliable corner inna Dori Jackson. He's playing a little banged

357
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Speaker 1: up too, So it's gonna come down to how much

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Speaker 1: of success can Henry have and then can they convert

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Speaker 1: in the red zone. And based on what I've seen

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Speaker 1: from the Chiefs run defense and some of the injuries,

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Speaker 1: and I think that Henry's going to have another big

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Speaker 1: day's running for basically two ring yards every game lately.

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Speaker 1: What are your thoughts?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, like, I totally agree. I think, like I'm looking

365
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Speaker 3: at Henry's numbers right now. And so you know, on

366
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Speaker 3: our Fantasy Flex podcast this week, you know, showing corner

367
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Speaker 3: Matthew Friedman and I and we break everything down from BFS.

368
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Speaker 2: But Sean Oltill throws out.

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Speaker 3: His props, you know, for one for each player, kind

370
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Speaker 3: of a key projection that he's trying to sharpen and

371
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Speaker 3: get right. I think he threw out a prop something

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Speaker 3: like one hundred rushing yards for Henry, and I told

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Speaker 3: him I had him projected for one thirty and and

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Speaker 3: when I'm looking at the you know, because you know,

375
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Speaker 3: of course, you know there's only two games, so we'll

376
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Speaker 3: kind of touch on, you know, other bets besides just

377
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Speaker 3: the bread and the total. And you know, I know

378
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Speaker 3: you're you're going in Tennessee with the seven and a

379
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Speaker 3: half yere And I think Henry is an interesting bet

380
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Speaker 3: because even if Tennessee does fall behind, you know, whether

381
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Speaker 3: they cover or not. I mean, I think you can

382
00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:58,040
Speaker 3: parlay it with at this bet. But like Derrick Henry

383
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Speaker 3: over one hundred and fifty rush yards, it's plus two

384
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Speaker 3: oh two. Here over one hundred and sixty one is

385
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Speaker 3: plus two to fifty seven.

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Speaker 2: Uh, you know those aren't out of the question.

387
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Speaker 3: This guy has gotten thirty plus carries in each of

388
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Speaker 3: the past three three games, and he has five, no,

389
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Speaker 3: six games over of one hundred and forty nine or more.

390
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Speaker 3: And they've all come, you know, they've all come since

391
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Speaker 3: week ten. So they've all come with tannahiat starter, they've

392
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Speaker 3: all come since we ten. I think he's going to

393
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Speaker 3: be the key, and I'm the.

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Speaker 1: Only one blocking unit against a bad front seven. You know,

395
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Speaker 1: their offensive line is a great against the pass. But

396
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Speaker 1: this isn't a team that's gonna come out and drop back.

397
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Speaker 1: They're just going to feed Henry and set up some

398
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Speaker 1: play action shots and some third you know, some throws

399
00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:40,320
Speaker 1: on first down on play action like it's not so

400
00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:43,640
Speaker 1: it's it's a team that matches up pretty well offensively.

401
00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:44,880
Speaker 1: Defensively is another question.

402
00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:47,840
Speaker 3: But again, yeah, so I'm taking the under fifty three

403
00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:49,800
Speaker 3: as my pick for this game. You know, we're each

404
00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:51,120
Speaker 3: going to take a side in a total, so it's

405
00:16:51,160 --> 00:16:54,520
Speaker 3: not not much choice. My pick for the other game,

406
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Speaker 3: I will say, is more confident we're going to do

407
00:16:56,440 --> 00:16:58,360
Speaker 3: our We'll just do two points per pick here. So

408
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Speaker 3: I think you're down three now with the with the fifty.

409
00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:04,720
Speaker 3: So if you get both right and I get both wrong,

410
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Speaker 3: you'd be in business here. Yeah, you need me to

411
00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:08,960
Speaker 3: get both of these wrongs, so hopefully I don't. But

412
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Speaker 3: we're talking Titans here, so I probably will get this

413
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Speaker 3: one wrong.

414
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Speaker 2: But I am going under fifty three.

415
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Speaker 3: And the reason is, you know, Tennessee was a very

416
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Speaker 3: profitable overteam, you know, during the regular season with Ryan

417
00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:23,840
Speaker 3: Tannehill as the starting quarterback, and then when they got

418
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Speaker 3: to the playoffs, you started to see the unders hit.

419
00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:28,800
Speaker 3: The one way that you do kind of hit the

420
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Speaker 3: under in these Chiefs games is you have to play

421
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Speaker 3: ball control and you have to play like the Titans play.

422
00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:37,480
Speaker 3: And I think, you know, to your point, when Tennessee,

423
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Speaker 3: even if Tennessee gets down in the first quarter, second quarter,

424
00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:43,119
Speaker 3: I mean, I think even into the second half, if

425
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Speaker 3: they're down fourteen to twenty one points, they're going to

426
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Speaker 3: run Henry because you know, as the lead gets larger,

427
00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:50,959
Speaker 3: you know, defenses will you know, play the pass a

428
00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:53,600
Speaker 3: little bit more. Either way, you know, Derrick Henry five

429
00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:56,400
Speaker 3: six yard game still better in the scheme of things,

430
00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:58,800
Speaker 3: making them drive the field, you know, giving up a

431
00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:01,840
Speaker 3: big play on play action like that. So I do

432
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Speaker 3: think that Henry will kind of decide this. And I

433
00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:08,040
Speaker 3: think because the Titans kind of play that ball control

434
00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:10,840
Speaker 3: even when you know they're down in games, I think

435
00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:14,800
Speaker 3: that the under is still more likely than over to hit.

436
00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:15,560
Speaker 2: At fifty three.

437
00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:18,119
Speaker 3: I mean, you look at Chiefs games ten ten of

438
00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:21,359
Speaker 3: the seventeen have gone under fifty three. So you know

439
00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:24,080
Speaker 3: that's a large number for any two NFL teams to

440
00:18:24,119 --> 00:18:26,200
Speaker 3: hit any given game. I think it's inflated a bit

441
00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:29,200
Speaker 3: because of what happened in that Texans games where you

442
00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:31,439
Speaker 3: know it ends up being what fifty one thirty one,

443
00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:33,119
Speaker 3: that's eighty two points.

444
00:18:33,200 --> 00:18:35,240
Speaker 2: You know, you see that, and I think, you know.

445
00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:37,760
Speaker 3: As a casual better you're looking at the Titans now

446
00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:41,200
Speaker 3: who continue to outperform expectations, and you're saying, okay, you know, yeah,

447
00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:43,680
Speaker 3: they had some under games. But I think the reason

448
00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:45,480
Speaker 3: that one got bet up, even though we see more

449
00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:48,080
Speaker 3: of the money, you know, there's a discrepancy there where

450
00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:50,879
Speaker 3: where you know there's more money than bets on the under,

451
00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:53,439
Speaker 3: the total still goes up. I think that's mostly to

452
00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:55,960
Speaker 3: do with kind of casual betters and inflating that one

453
00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:59,200
Speaker 3: a bit. So I like the value there at fifty

454
00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:01,639
Speaker 3: three toward the under, and I just think, you know,

455
00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:04,359
Speaker 3: it's interesting. The one thing about the Chiefs with kind

456
00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:06,719
Speaker 3: of a silver lining, I would say for them without

457
00:19:06,760 --> 00:19:10,879
Speaker 3: Thornhill in passing situations, at least on third downs and

458
00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:14,760
Speaker 3: medium to long or in the pre event whatever or not,

459
00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:17,040
Speaker 3: they will play a lot of two safety deep because

460
00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:19,840
Speaker 3: Thornhill was really the only safety that they trusted in

461
00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:24,320
Speaker 3: single high. Now that hurts on early downs because I

462
00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:27,880
Speaker 3: don't know, like, yeah.

463
00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:28,640
Speaker 2: You can't play.

464
00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:31,760
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't think you can play two safeties

465
00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:34,080
Speaker 3: deeping against Tennessee. And I think that's one of the

466
00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:37,480
Speaker 3: ways that this Tennessee offense has been so successful in

467
00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:40,320
Speaker 3: the past game because we look at Ryan Tannehill and

468
00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:42,159
Speaker 3: you say, how is he having, you know, all this

469
00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:45,040
Speaker 3: success when you know he was kind of a middling

470
00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:48,280
Speaker 3: below average quarterback throughout his career with the Miami Dolphins.

471
00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:51,520
Speaker 3: And play action is of course a large part of it,

472
00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:54,400
Speaker 3: you know, you know, per Pro Football Reference on play

473
00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:59,320
Speaker 3: action passes this season, he is twenty He's fifty eight

474
00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:02,840
Speaker 3: of seventy or seventy eight percent completions just during the

475
00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:05,600
Speaker 3: regular season, fifty eight to seventy four, one thousand, ninety

476
00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:11,240
Speaker 3: five yards, eight touchdowns, fourteen point eight yards per pass attempt,

477
00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:14,400
Speaker 3: eight touchdowns, two picks one forty three point five rating.

478
00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:17,040
Speaker 3: And then in non play action though he's still been

479
00:20:17,280 --> 00:20:22,480
Speaker 3: very good, you know, sixty seven point five completions, fourteen touchdowns,

480
00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:25,320
Speaker 3: four picks, one oh four point eight rating, you know,

481
00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:27,439
Speaker 3: seven point eight yards per attempt. That's still pretty good.

482
00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:31,360
Speaker 3: That's above the weak average per attempt just with all plays,

483
00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:33,560
Speaker 3: just with non play action for tannahe and I think

484
00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:36,760
Speaker 3: part of it is, as with Henry being such a

485
00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:39,879
Speaker 3: threat on the ground, it's almost like any play, every

486
00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:42,280
Speaker 3: play that's not like a third and long is like

487
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:44,680
Speaker 3: a play action, even if they're not, you know, faking

488
00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:47,240
Speaker 3: to the running back, because you still have to kind

489
00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:48,200
Speaker 3: of like as a.

490
00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:50,720
Speaker 2: Linebacker as the field is looking Yeah, you're looking at

491
00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:52,080
Speaker 2: Henry and you're bringing.

492
00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:54,680
Speaker 3: Your your linebackers and your you know, your linebackers up post.

493
00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:57,520
Speaker 3: You're bringing you probably a safety down. This isn't just

494
00:20:57,640 --> 00:20:59,679
Speaker 3: you know, the Titans, you know, going play action and

495
00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:02,960
Speaker 3: it's you know, Aj Brown going off. I mean last

496
00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:06,000
Speaker 3: game against Baltimore, it was Khalif Raymond that caught the

497
00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 3: long touchdown, and I think that works to the Titans advantage.

498
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,200
Speaker 3: In the Patriots game, it was firks Are catching a touchdown.

499
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,399
Speaker 3: I think it works to the Titans advantage that you

500
00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:17,600
Speaker 3: can't devote more than a man coverage, like a single

501
00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,120
Speaker 3: guy to a Khalif Raymond, even if he is even

502
00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:21,960
Speaker 3: if you do think he's gonna run fifty yards down

503
00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 3: the field. You can't double a guy like Anthony Firkser

504
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:26,400
Speaker 3: in the red zone, even if he is a guy

505
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:28,119
Speaker 3: that you know Titans like to throw it to their

506
00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:30,840
Speaker 3: tight ends in the red zone. So I think that's

507
00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:32,919
Speaker 3: kind of how they've had this red zone success, you know,

508
00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:35,680
Speaker 3: with everyone looking at Henry, I think that's how they've

509
00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 3: had this success in the past. Game beyond just play

510
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:42,040
Speaker 3: action is it's just a threat at this point of

511
00:21:42,080 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 3: the run with this guy. So I think that Tennessee,

512
00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:48,640
Speaker 3: you know, they they'll have success in those areas. They'll

513
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:52,399
Speaker 3: continue to have success in those areas. But because they're

514
00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 3: so skewed towards the run, and they've run the ball,

515
00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:58,840
Speaker 3: you know, they've dropped back, you know, under twenty times

516
00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 3: in his last two playoff games. I'm waining towards the

517
00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:05,439
Speaker 3: under here, just because you know Patrick Mahomes. Yes, they

518
00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:08,119
Speaker 3: can score fast, but Tennessee, this is the defense that

519
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:09,480
Speaker 3: you know, Houston played man cover.

520
00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:10,920
Speaker 2: I think that's something we should point out too.

521
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:13,919
Speaker 3: Houston played a ton of man coverage because they felt

522
00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:17,080
Speaker 3: we can't match up, you know, in zone. He's just

523
00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:19,440
Speaker 3: gonna pick us apart. I think Tennessee will play a

524
00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:21,879
Speaker 3: little more zone. They don't blitt a lot. They were

525
00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 3: they don't bit, so they don't get a lot of pressure.

526
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:26,640
Speaker 3: But one thing they do do is they they'll tend

527
00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:28,680
Speaker 3: to double team two guys a lot of the time.

528
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,480
Speaker 3: So like in the Patriots game, they doubled James White

529
00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:34,679
Speaker 3: and Edelman on like key third down plays, and so

530
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 3: I think you'll see some of that with Tyreek Hill

531
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:39,760
Speaker 3: and Travis Kelsey getting doubled on certain plays, and yeah,

532
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:42,520
Speaker 3: that'll open up other things. But ultimately I think Tennessee

533
00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:45,600
Speaker 3: will do whatever it can to kind of force Kansas City,

534
00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:47,720
Speaker 3: you know, to drive down the field and not and

535
00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:50,480
Speaker 3: try to limit the explosive plays. So you know, everything's

536
00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 3: going to kind of be set up Tennessee. You know,

537
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 3: Tennessee is gonna be working, you know, toward this under.

538
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:56,919
Speaker 3: Kansas City is gonna try to get off to a

539
00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 3: fast start. But when you're talking about you know what,

540
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:01,880
Speaker 3: say Kansas City does get off to a fast star

541
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,280
Speaker 3: and they do get up you know, fourteen twenty one,

542
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:07,200
Speaker 3: I still think that plays into the under again because

543
00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:08,960
Speaker 3: you know, number one, it's just going to be a

544
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:11,960
Speaker 3: little bit harder for Tennessee to be efficient if the

545
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:14,120
Speaker 3: threat the more of the threat of Henry is removed

546
00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:16,879
Speaker 3: and they're still going to play that style anyway. So

547
00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:20,000
Speaker 3: either way, I think there's more things, more things than

548
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 3: not working in favor of this under at fifty three here.

549
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:26,199
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a really high number for you know, a

550
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 1: conference championship game. The only scary thing is and if

551
00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:33,240
Speaker 1: you just get a little regression on these Tennessee red

552
00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:35,480
Speaker 1: zone trips, it should hit. And that's worth mentioning Kansasity

553
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:38,159
Speaker 1: by a special teams advantage. And Tantasy's kicker is going

554
00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:39,840
Speaker 1: to be kicking his first the field goal tenth of

555
00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:41,719
Speaker 1: the year. Maybe he won't, but yeah, if you can

556
00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:43,119
Speaker 1: even get a little regresson in the red zone, they

557
00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:44,600
Speaker 1: settle for a couple of field goals that should hit.

558
00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:47,400
Speaker 1: Just the only scary thing is is that both offenses

559
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 1: match up well with both opposing defenses. Right, So if

560
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 1: the Kansas City is one of the worst run defenses

561
00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:54,000
Speaker 1: in the NFL, you have one of the best backs

562
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:57,680
Speaker 1: who's on fire. And then Tennessee really good run defense

563
00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,320
Speaker 1: not so great against the past banged up second banged

564
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:03,720
Speaker 1: up linebackers, they should get brown back Evans is also

565
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:08,440
Speaker 1: banged up. Now can any can anyone really cover Kelsey anyway? No?

566
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:11,200
Speaker 1: But and then just in general on their secondary also

567
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 1: a little banged up and they're trying to cover one

568
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,399
Speaker 1: of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. So just on

569
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,240
Speaker 1: the surface, the matchups favor both offenses significant but it's

570
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:22,000
Speaker 1: a really high number and you just need to, you know,

571
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 1: a couple of things to go your way and without

572
00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:26,320
Speaker 1: even turnovers in the red zone and you should get there.

573
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 1: But yeah, so my play your plays on the under yep,

574
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 1: I'm going with Tennessee and just went in doubt, you know,

575
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 1: in general, and it doesn't work every weekend. You got

576
00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:36,399
Speaker 1: to look at the matchups and I love the Henry

577
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 1: matchup here and went in doubt. I'll always fall back

578
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:41,399
Speaker 1: on taking you know, a touchdown or more. In the

579
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:44,760
Speaker 1: NFL playoffs. It's about a sixty percent proposition over the

580
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:47,639
Speaker 1: last Whatsons two thousand and three in our database. It'll

581
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:49,800
Speaker 1: be interesting to see how nuts Henry can go and

582
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:51,880
Speaker 1: if you can get Tennessee to the super Bowl.

583
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 3: And speaking of how nuts Henry can go, that is

584
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 3: a good segue into the fact that we once again

585
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:03,439
Speaker 3: are still running our Fade Revel promotion with our friends at.

586
00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:04,560
Speaker 2: Points Bet Sportsbook.

587
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 3: This week, our colleague Darren Revel predicts that Derrick Henry

588
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:12,920
Speaker 3: will not score a touchdown. So if you think Henry

589
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 3: will score a touchdown and you do want to fade

590
00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:19,399
Speaker 3: Revel points, Bett has boosted the odds from minus two

591
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 3: hundred to even money that Henry will not reach the

592
00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 3: end zone, their biggest odds boost so far. Personally, I

593
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 3: think that even at even money it's probably at best

594
00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 3: a toss up. I think he gets into the end zone.

595
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 3: But Darren Ravel, he's he's been on with these with

596
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 3: these picks, so I think for some regression. Yeah, Ravel's hot,

597
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 3: got a chance to hang out with them a couple

598
00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 3: of days ago, shouts to him. But I think that

599
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:47,440
Speaker 3: he is due for some regression. So if you're interested

600
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 3: in fading Revel, just follow the link in this episode description.

601
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 2: For more details.

602
00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:56,000
Speaker 3: All right, let's get into this second game, and then

603
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:58,640
Speaker 3: we'll circle back. We'll talk a little bit about, you know,

604
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,359
Speaker 3: just which underdog we take more on the money line

605
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:05,639
Speaker 3: in our usual money line underdog par Way segment. But

606
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:08,600
Speaker 3: let's talk about this game from a side total perspective.

607
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:11,520
Speaker 3: Anything else we're looking for. It is the fourteen and

608
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:15,640
Speaker 3: three Green Bay Packers heading to San Francisco to take

609
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 3: on the forty nine ers thirteen and three during the

610
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:21,399
Speaker 3: regular season when their divisional round matchups, so they're also

611
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:24,359
Speaker 3: fourteen and three. The line seven and a half in

612
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:27,240
Speaker 3: favor of the Niners opened at seven, moved up a

613
00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:31,199
Speaker 3: half point. The total has stayed at forty five, fifty

614
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 3: seven percent of bets, sixty three percent of money on

615
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:37,239
Speaker 3: the forty nine ers year, and then when you look

616
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 3: at the total, seventy three percent of the bets on

617
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:43,240
Speaker 3: the over, seventy three percent of the money on the over,

618
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:46,920
Speaker 3: and yet that total has stayed still at forty five.

619
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 2: That kind of tells you where the books are at

620
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:49,360
Speaker 2: with this one.

621
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:52,719
Speaker 3: But stuck initial thoughts on how these two teams matchup

622
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 3: and where you're going with your pick.

623
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:56,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I like the under here and if

624
00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:59,280
Speaker 1: the first meeting staff I won thirty seven eight, and

625
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 1: I mean they're their defense dominant. Their defense wasn't even

626
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:03,199
Speaker 1: as healthy as it is now, so I think that

627
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:06,280
Speaker 1: the San fred defense should show out. Now what happened

628
00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:07,439
Speaker 1: in that game is if you look at what the

629
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:10,760
Speaker 1: Packers have done, their offense hasn't been spectacular, although Rogers

630
00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:13,439
Speaker 1: made some vintage throws to lock up that game and

631
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:15,399
Speaker 1: in the second half last week, but their offense hasn't

632
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:17,640
Speaker 1: been anywhere close to a leade all year, but where

633
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:20,360
Speaker 1: it has been elite is early on in games. So

634
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:22,240
Speaker 1: you know, during the scripted portion, this is the team

635
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:25,040
Speaker 1: that is top three in the NFL and first quarter points.

636
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:27,639
Speaker 1: I mean, go look at any of their home games

637
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:29,320
Speaker 1: and a number of the gaff can look at the

638
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 1: Redskins game. This is a team that goes up early

639
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 1: in games and then a lot of times has to

640
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,359
Speaker 1: hold on. It happened again against Seattle. That script was

641
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:39,520
Speaker 1: flipped against San France and the first drive of the game.

642
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:42,440
Speaker 1: And by the way, these are two from a turnover perspective,

643
00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:44,119
Speaker 1: these are two complete OPSU quarterbacks. The Rogers a is

644
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 1: one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history as far

645
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:48,200
Speaker 1: as taking care of the ball, and Jimmy g can

646
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:50,399
Speaker 1: get a little loose with the ball at times. But

647
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 1: in the first drive of that game, Riders fumbled and

648
00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:54,320
Speaker 1: San France took over at the two yard line and

649
00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:56,119
Speaker 1: they scored, and they went up seven nothing, and then

650
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 1: it kind of snowballed from there and the Green Bay

651
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:01,480
Speaker 1: offense isn't going to come back on that San Fran

652
00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:05,439
Speaker 1: pass rush. That San Fran secondary, especially now, so I

653
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:08,960
Speaker 1: think a fast start for Green Bay is paramount. That's

654
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:11,359
Speaker 1: something to keep an eye on because if they go

655
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:13,679
Speaker 1: down seven to fourteen nothing again, then it makes them

656
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:15,440
Speaker 1: one dimensional on the way that you have to try

657
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:17,159
Speaker 1: and attack San friends. You have to try and keep

658
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 1: him honest and stay committed to the running game. When

659
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:21,439
Speaker 1: you're down twenty three nothing at the half and you

660
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:23,160
Speaker 1: have Aaron Rodgers, you're not really going to stay committed

661
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:25,680
Speaker 1: to the running game. But you know, on the other side,

662
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:29,919
Speaker 1: it's this Green Bay defense is you know, against the run.

663
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 1: It's been improved since the bye week. I mean, Kenny Clark,

664
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 1: a healthy Kenny Clark has helped the ton What's going

665
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:37,920
Speaker 1: to be really interesting for me to see is that,

666
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 1: you know, they like to play a lot of and

667
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:41,560
Speaker 1: I've said this point, they play a lot of heavy dime.

668
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:44,000
Speaker 1: You'll see like Ibraham Campbell safety in there as your

669
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:46,920
Speaker 1: other linebacker, Raven Green, who's you know, the first couple

670
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 1: of weeks, he's I think better against the run in

671
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:51,280
Speaker 1: that station. You might see him back. But regardless, it's

672
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 1: a smaller second level. You know, if you go back

673
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:55,880
Speaker 1: and look at a lot of their problems early on

674
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:59,440
Speaker 1: in the year against the run and Patton will say this,

675
00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:01,320
Speaker 1: you know, and a lot of this is like a

676
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:03,719
Speaker 1: narrative type of statement, but it's actually true. From what

677
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 1: I was seeing with Green Bay early in the year

678
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:07,640
Speaker 1: is that there was a lot of missed assignments. There

679
00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 1: was people out of position in that front seven, and

680
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 1: they were just giving up just enormous holes right and

681
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 1: there was just explosive runs all over the place. So

682
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 1: they've seem to shore some of that up, but you're

683
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 1: going to get a huge test this weekend against the

684
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:24,479
Speaker 1: San Fran offense that will test that as well as

685
00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:26,720
Speaker 1: any team in the NFL with all their motion, their

686
00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:32,239
Speaker 1: pre snap motion, their misdirection. So how much improved is

687
00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 1: Green Bay defense from a run discipline perspective from that

688
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:39,480
Speaker 1: first game to this game, it's still a question. I

689
00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:41,840
Speaker 1: think they're better, you know, I don't care. I mean, look,

690
00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 1: the Seattle's offensive line was decimated and they're on their

691
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 1: fifth and six string backset. I mean, I don't take

692
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 1: a ton from what they did in that game, So

693
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,360
Speaker 1: I think that's a key. But the first thing that

694
00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:54,520
Speaker 1: you know jumped out to me is this line is

695
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 1: seven and a half. I know you're going to go

696
00:29:57,040 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 1: back to your San Fran boys. But this line was

697
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 1: three in the first meeting, and you were on sand

698
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 1: Frian then too, and it turned out to be a

699
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 1: bad line. But that's a pretty significant jomb Now San

700
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,760
Speaker 1: Frian's defense healthier. Now they're gonna get some pieces back.

701
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:10,680
Speaker 1: So and green band that first game at two point

702
00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 1: eight yards per play. So I think this is a

703
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 1: low scoring game. And from a pace perspective, these are

704
00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 1: not two fast teams. You know, you're eighteenth and twentieth

705
00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 1: in neutral pace situations, so you're not going to see,

706
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 1: you know, a ton of pace. Sand Fran is obviously

707
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:26,920
Speaker 1: going to run it a lot, but they're going to

708
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 1: pass it intelligently. They're gonna throw it on first downs.

709
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 1: But green Bath think is going to have to try

710
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 1: and stay committed to run. So I think this is

711
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:37,960
Speaker 1: a low scoring defensive game. As far as my contractual

712
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 1: obligation to mention my Packer's future, and all year, I'm

713
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 1: kicking myself for not having a Raven's future. And the

714
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:43,840
Speaker 1: Ravens are the best team in the NFL, and the

715
00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:45,760
Speaker 1: Packers stunk all year, and here I am with my

716
00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 1: eighteen to one and the PA and the Ravens are

717
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 1: at home. It just shows you it's one game, one

718
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:52,080
Speaker 1: game scenario. You never know what can happen. So in

719
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:53,840
Speaker 1: regard to the Packers, who you I have eighteen to

720
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 1: one and you can't really hedge it here, you know,

721
00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 1: I mean, because if you think about it, they're more

722
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 1: than two to their two to one underdog. If the

723
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 1: Chiefs win and get to the Super Bowl, they're about

724
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 1: But yeah, Chiefs will probably minus two hundred line it'll

725
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 1: be around Chiefs minus six, five six somewhere in that ballpark.

726
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 1: So what are you gonna do? I mean, your hedge

727
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 1: options are limited even with just two games now, so

728
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 1: I'll probably let the future ride. Now, what you could

729
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 1: do is the Packers play second. So if the Titans

730
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 1: upset the Chiefs, then you have a little more flexibility

731
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 1: because the Packers would be a small favorite over the

732
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 1: Titans in the super Bowl. Maybe it comes out of

733
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 1: pick if the Titans win and you know, they look

734
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:32,360
Speaker 1: really impressive and there's some perception bump. I think some

735
00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 1: look at lines now have it Packers minus two and

736
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:36,520
Speaker 1: a half. But regardless, instead of being a six to

737
00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:38,680
Speaker 1: one underdog, you're a favorite or a pick. You have

738
00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:41,400
Speaker 1: a little more options, but I'm personally ninety percent sure

739
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:44,920
Speaker 1: I'm letting it ride. Maybe green Bay goes up early,

740
00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:46,320
Speaker 1: as they've done in so many games, and then I

741
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:49,160
Speaker 1: can take some sanfran live as a partial hedge to

742
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:51,280
Speaker 1: the future. But that's where I stand from a future perspective.

743
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:53,800
Speaker 1: But do you think that it's an undergame. Green Bay

744
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 1: at least has a good offensive line. But it's just

745
00:31:56,000 --> 00:31:58,480
Speaker 1: you're gonna need an enormous game from Devonte Adams in

746
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 1: order for this Green Bay offense to go nuts. On

747
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:03,600
Speaker 1: the opposite of Sherman, maybe Tyler Irvin, who's been a

748
00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:05,760
Speaker 1: godsend for the Packers, can make a play, mainly in

749
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:08,680
Speaker 1: the return game. This is a guy came to Green

750
00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 1: Bay in December. It's more punt returns than the whole

751
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 1: team did the prior to that, and they can maybe

752
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 1: use them on some jet sweeps and things like that.

753
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 1: But it's gonna be a tough ass because this forty

754
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 1: nine Ers defense is healthy and they're as good as

755
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 1: it gets. And then I do think that the green

756
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:23,240
Speaker 1: Bay defense will be a little better than we saw

757
00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 1: in the first time around. So I'm going to throw

758
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:30,640
Speaker 1: out I'm going to say, neither team gets to gets

759
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:32,720
Speaker 1: beyond twenty four, so give me the under forty five.

760
00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:36,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think that is the better side of

761
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:38,560
Speaker 2: this line. I don't think it's that the total was

762
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 2: too far off. Like I like the I like the

763
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:43,320
Speaker 2: Niners better at seven and a half.

764
00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:45,840
Speaker 3: I took them at seven, wrote that up in our

765
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:48,440
Speaker 3: early Bets piece that came out on Action Network dot

766
00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 3: Com earlier in the week. But you know, and I

767
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 3: know you might disagree here, but I just I have

768
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 3: a lot more confidence in this pick, I think than

769
00:32:57,720 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 3: pretty much any other for this weekend.

770
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:01,080
Speaker 2: And is because I think.

771
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:03,040
Speaker 3: That, and you know, you know, I've been kind of

772
00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 3: on the forty nine ers, like like they're like my

773
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:07,959
Speaker 3: anti Titans, Like I'm pretty much always wrong about you know,

774
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 3: when I was at least with the spreads with the Titans.

775
00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 2: But I've kind of been on the Niners. I've had

776
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 2: a good read on them.

777
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:14,920
Speaker 3: I felt like, you know, even in that Rams game

778
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:16,640
Speaker 3: where everyone kind of felt like they would come back

779
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 3: down to Earth early in the year, they came out

780
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:21,600
Speaker 3: and just dominated the Rams Packers.

781
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 2: Same deal Vikings last week.

782
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:26,000
Speaker 3: And I think you know what stood out to me

783
00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:29,000
Speaker 3: about this line was that it opened at seven. You know,

784
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:32,040
Speaker 3: the Niners also closed the seven point favorites against the

785
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:35,760
Speaker 3: Vikings in that divisional round well by by by pretty

786
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 3: much any metric you look at, the Vikings are a

787
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 3: better team than the Packers, not win loss record, because

788
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:45,440
Speaker 3: the Packers happened to match up extremely well with the

789
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 3: Vikings and beat them up in two games, one of

790
00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:51,680
Speaker 3: them which the Vikings went down twenty one nothing I

791
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 3: think it was, and then ended up losing twenty one

792
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 3: to sixteen. But Packers went to and zer against the Vikings,

793
00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:57,960
Speaker 3: which which kind of shifts it, and you kind of

794
00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 3: and shift the perception. But you look at something like

795
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:04,920
Speaker 3: simple rating system, which is just essentially schedule adjusted margin

796
00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:08,680
Speaker 3: of victory, and the Vikings are five point four the

797
00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:11,160
Speaker 3: Packers of three point two, Niners are up at eleven

798
00:34:11,200 --> 00:34:14,960
Speaker 3: point zero. And then you look at DVOA. Vikings had

799
00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:17,800
Speaker 3: a better team than the Packers. They were seventh tense

800
00:34:18,040 --> 00:34:20,800
Speaker 3: Vikings about twice as efficient in terms of the actual

801
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:24,240
Speaker 3: percentages versus the league average and DVOA. So the Vikings

802
00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:26,440
Speaker 3: just happened not to match it well with the Packers.

803
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:28,040
Speaker 3: That kind of knocked it down. But I think this

804
00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:32,359
Speaker 3: line should be bigger because the Niners have the same

805
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:35,760
Speaker 3: advantages pretty much that they had against the Vikings against

806
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:39,200
Speaker 3: his Green Bay team, the top advantage being and the

807
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:40,799
Speaker 3: reason I think it will be tough for Green Bay

808
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 3: to stay close if they don't get you know, you know,

809
00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 3: a turnover or something like that ends up scoring. I

810
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 3: think it will be tough is because the same way

811
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:52,480
Speaker 3: you beat the Vikings offense Kirk Cousins, Adam Deeve and Stefan.

812
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:54,840
Speaker 2: Diggs is you get pressure without blitzing.

813
00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:57,359
Speaker 3: I keep hammering this home because it's the forty nine's

814
00:34:57,400 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 3: were really the only team in the NFL that was

815
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 3: able to truly accomplished this at in a week level.

816
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:05,880
Speaker 3: They blitzed at the second highest rate during the regular

817
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 3: season twenty eight point seven percent. Excuse me, they got

818
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:11,320
Speaker 3: pressure at the second highest rate during the regular season

819
00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 3: twenty eight point seven percent. Pro Football Focus blitzed at

820
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 3: the fourth lowest rate, just under twenty one percent of

821
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:18,560
Speaker 3: the time.

822
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,839
Speaker 2: And when you can do that.

823
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:25,520
Speaker 3: That means that you have seven guys to devote to coverage.

824
00:35:25,560 --> 00:35:27,279
Speaker 3: And you know the reason they can do that is

825
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:30,600
Speaker 3: because they have Nick Bosa, they have Armstead, they have

826
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:32,359
Speaker 3: d Ford back now.

827
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:34,400
Speaker 2: So the Niners they can get pressure.

828
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:37,319
Speaker 3: Their pressure rate was even higher when d Ford was

829
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 3: healthy and Kwant Alexander and was healthy. But they can

830
00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:43,600
Speaker 3: get pressure without blitzing. And you look at Rogers's numbers

831
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:46,680
Speaker 3: this year in the different splitz and when he's when

832
00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:50,839
Speaker 3: he's faced a a blitz, as most week quarterbacks do,

833
00:35:51,360 --> 00:35:53,759
Speaker 3: he has shredded it. So Rodgers numbers against the blitz

834
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 3: this year one hundred and forty eight attempts, eight point

835
00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 3: three yards per attempt, nine touchdowns, no picks. And then

836
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:02,319
Speaker 3: you look at numbers against a normal rush. Yeah, still

837
00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:05,799
Speaker 3: nineteen touchdowns, four picks, but on four hundred and forty

838
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:09,360
Speaker 3: eight attempts only six point seven yards per attempt.

839
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:13,520
Speaker 2: So you can really neutralize Rogers by not blitzing him.

840
00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:14,920
Speaker 2: He's going to turn the ball over.

841
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:16,680
Speaker 3: If he does turn the ball over, it's going to

842
00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:19,879
Speaker 3: be usually when you don't blitz. On top of that,

843
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:21,719
Speaker 3: he's he's not going to put the you know, he's

844
00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:23,640
Speaker 3: not going to put the ball in danger, which explains

845
00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:25,920
Speaker 3: the low yard per attempt. Then you look at, okay,

846
00:36:26,040 --> 00:36:27,920
Speaker 3: how can the forty nine ers?

847
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:28,880
Speaker 2: What makes them elite?

848
00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:30,840
Speaker 3: The reason they led the NFL in net yards per

849
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:34,000
Speaker 3: pass attempt, you know at four point eight is because

850
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:38,400
Speaker 3: they can also cover, especially kwant Alexander Back, really quick linebacker.

851
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 3: And then you have Jaquiski Tard at safety, really smart,

852
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:43,600
Speaker 3: makes a lot of the defensive calls when he's back there,

853
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:46,719
Speaker 3: can man up on tight ends if need be. And

854
00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:48,200
Speaker 3: then you look so you look at how they cover

855
00:36:48,560 --> 00:36:51,520
Speaker 3: and DeVante Adams in that first matchup twelve targets forty

856
00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:55,280
Speaker 3: three yards. He had forty three yards receiving and forty

857
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:58,280
Speaker 3: four yards after the catch, which means his average reception

858
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:01,200
Speaker 3: took place essentially at the line of scrimmage and it

859
00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:03,760
Speaker 3: was all after the catch. Well, for the season, Adams

860
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 3: his average reception is about seven and a half yards

861
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 3: beyond the line of scrimmage.

862
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 2: You can neutralize Adams.

863
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:12,479
Speaker 3: It goes a long way toward neutralizing the offense because

864
00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:15,200
Speaker 3: you look at last week Rogers two hundred and forty

865
00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:18,400
Speaker 3: three yards passing one hundred and sixty four Adams.

866
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:21,160
Speaker 2: That's two thirds, two thirds of the yardage to Adams.

867
00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:23,279
Speaker 3: Then you look at Rogers in that game against San

868
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 3: fran one hundred four yards passing his worst, his lowest

869
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:29,239
Speaker 3: total any game in his career in which he had

870
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:33,320
Speaker 3: at twenty three or more pass attempts. So it's I

871
00:37:33,400 --> 00:37:35,480
Speaker 3: think that it's going to be really tough to financewers

872
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:40,160
Speaker 3: to neutralize this forty nine ers defense. If you're the Packers,

873
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 3: I think the one thing they'll do is try to

874
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:43,960
Speaker 3: run it. You know, on first down green San Francisco

875
00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 3: was twenty ninth in the league in rush success rate,

876
00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:50,200
Speaker 3: so that's what they're you're going to have to do.

877
00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:51,799
Speaker 3: But then you look at last week and they have

878
00:37:51,840 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 3: all these guys healthy, and they have Alexander who had

879
00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 3: speed even if he was a little rusty, and they

880
00:37:56,600 --> 00:37:58,319
Speaker 3: hold Dalvin Cook in check.

881
00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:00,400
Speaker 2: He only had twenty six yards on fifteen touches.

882
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:02,560
Speaker 3: So Aaron Jones had won twenty three yard run I

883
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 3: think it was on the opening drive last week against Seattle,

884
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 3: and then he goes He ends the game twenty one

885
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:11,319
Speaker 3: for sixty two under three yards of carry. San fran

886
00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 3: has more rest. Jones got banged around in that game.

887
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:17,719
Speaker 3: Jamal Williams still not fully healthy apparently, So you know,

888
00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 3: I think it's really going to be tough for the Packers.

889
00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:22,400
Speaker 3: You know, just a median outcome I think is more

890
00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:24,439
Speaker 3: is more than a one possession game in this case,

891
00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:26,200
Speaker 3: and I think it's just really if you if you

892
00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:28,960
Speaker 3: kind of you know, projected out, you know, it's closer

893
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:32,359
Speaker 3: to ten than it is to set in my opinion, in.

894
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:34,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, but a lot of those numbers are based on

895
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:38,560
Speaker 1: if the green Bay defense is not significantly improved, right, I'm.

896
00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:40,120
Speaker 3: Talking about straight up, like I'll take, like, take the

897
00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:42,840
Speaker 3: entire year San Francisco numbers because that kind of evens

898
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:45,239
Speaker 3: it out, because San Francisco almost all like they had

899
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:47,960
Speaker 3: a major drop off in defense in weeks four to

900
00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:51,240
Speaker 3: fourteen to through seventeen, which is when you had Tart

901
00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:54,280
Speaker 3: pretty much you had Tart out every game. You had Ford,

902
00:38:54,320 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 3: I think he played a few snaps, but he was out.

903
00:38:56,120 --> 00:39:00,920
Speaker 3: Sherman missed the game, and then you had Kawant Alexander

904
00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:02,920
Speaker 3: he was out for all those games. So you kind

905
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:04,839
Speaker 3: of take those and then you say, Okay, yes, green

906
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:06,440
Speaker 3: Bay's defense was improved, but you look at who they

907
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:08,600
Speaker 3: played down the stretch, and they didn't play a lot

908
00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:11,360
Speaker 3: of great offenses. They played Detroit, they played Chicago, they

909
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:13,800
Speaker 3: played all these teams. So I think it kind of

910
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:16,560
Speaker 3: evens out for both of these teams to where the

911
00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:19,920
Speaker 3: drop offs in you know, some of the improvements that

912
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:22,680
Speaker 3: they've had, and I still think that this line should

913
00:39:22,719 --> 00:39:25,319
Speaker 3: be closer to ten. And I definitely think it should be,

914
00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:28,680
Speaker 3: you know, a point point and a half higher than

915
00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:33,239
Speaker 3: the Vikings game. So yeah, I like San Francisco at

916
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:35,759
Speaker 3: seven and a half. Again, I just think it should

917
00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:37,080
Speaker 3: be larger than that. And I do like the under

918
00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:39,360
Speaker 3: because I do think that, I mean I like the

919
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:40,960
Speaker 3: under more than the over because I do think that

920
00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:44,360
Speaker 3: Green Bay does try to run it on first down especially,

921
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:47,040
Speaker 3: I think they do see that that's probably where you're

922
00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 3: gonna get San Francisco.

923
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 2: And then on the other side, you saw San Francisco.

924
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:50,919
Speaker 3: I mean, what did they run it like twenty straight

925
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:53,399
Speaker 3: times once they got up against Minnesota last week, so

926
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:55,560
Speaker 3: and they had success, which is you know, they could

927
00:39:55,560 --> 00:39:58,239
Speaker 3: still score doing that, which is amazing. But yeah, I

928
00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:01,200
Speaker 3: think with the extra rest, the extra day here, you know,

929
00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:03,680
Speaker 3: they have three backs. Breed I don't know if he

930
00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:05,920
Speaker 3: plays as much, but they still have three backs that

931
00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:08,320
Speaker 3: they could conceivably use. So even though they had a

932
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:11,360
Speaker 3: lot of runs last week, no one particularly got banged

933
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:13,360
Speaker 3: up or kind of overworked.

934
00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:15,279
Speaker 2: And then you look at on the other side, I.

935
00:40:15,280 --> 00:40:17,520
Speaker 3: Mean, Aaron Jones at twenty one carries, you know, for

936
00:40:17,560 --> 00:40:18,640
Speaker 3: the season, he's down.

937
00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:20,680
Speaker 2: You know, he's usually in the in the mid teens.

938
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:23,080
Speaker 3: So I just think that you look at it all

939
00:40:23,080 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 3: and I think it's another one of these situations that

940
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:29,160
Speaker 3: just favors favors West scoring and favors the Niners and

941
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:31,520
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers even on the road. I mean, you know,

942
00:40:31,560 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 3: first of all, first of all, Aaron Rodgerson's Adams came back,

943
00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:37,319
Speaker 3: like the numbers are still ugly, six point one four

944
00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:41,319
Speaker 3: yards per attempt, what over one point three touchdowns per game,

945
00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:42,919
Speaker 3: And then you look at his numbers on the road

946
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:45,319
Speaker 3: and at home, he's averaging eight yards in attempt. On

947
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:48,239
Speaker 3: a road, he's averaging six point one. So you know,

948
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 3: we talked about Rogers and Lambeau. I took the pack

949
00:40:50,719 --> 00:40:53,200
Speaker 3: last week. I thought they could cover the short spread.

950
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:55,839
Speaker 3: They barely did. But I think it's gonna be tough.

951
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:57,880
Speaker 3: I don't think this is like something a few coaching

952
00:40:58,120 --> 00:41:01,480
Speaker 3: you know, adjustments or like you know, not fumbling that

953
00:41:01,560 --> 00:41:04,960
Speaker 3: football inside the you know, inside scoring position. And given

954
00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:06,799
Speaker 3: san Frian that that early lead, I don't think that's

955
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:10,480
Speaker 3: something that necessarily knocks a ton off of the final outcome.

956
00:41:10,520 --> 00:41:13,279
Speaker 3: I just think San Francisco's defense, as they have been

957
00:41:13,360 --> 00:41:15,960
Speaker 3: a year win healthy with those three key guys Tart

958
00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:18,279
Speaker 3: Forward and in Alexander. I just think this is a

959
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 3: dominant defense that you know, it's tough, it's tough to beat,

960
00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:22,880
Speaker 3: it's tough to score on, and it's tough to uh

961
00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:24,120
Speaker 3: to stay close against.

962
00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:26,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, but the one the one difference that

963
00:41:26,360 --> 00:41:29,280
Speaker 1: I will say for between Minnesota and green Bay. I mean, obviously,

964
00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:32,120
Speaker 1: you take Rogers over Cousins in a big game, and

965
00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:33,560
Speaker 1: he gets rid of the ball a little quicker. But

966
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:36,319
Speaker 1: green Bay obviously is a much better offensive line, and

967
00:41:36,400 --> 00:41:38,120
Speaker 1: you know the Laga is gonna play so at least

968
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:40,920
Speaker 1: they have two tackles that are really good that you

969
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:43,759
Speaker 1: know can at least compete with San fran But their

970
00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:46,759
Speaker 1: offensive line is a lot better, which theoretically helps. But

971
00:41:46,800 --> 00:41:48,400
Speaker 1: when I think the formula for the Packers and I

972
00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:50,040
Speaker 1: think the forty niners are gonna win this game, it's

973
00:41:50,040 --> 00:41:52,880
Speaker 1: still a one football game. Yeah, last week against the Vikings,

974
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:56,000
Speaker 1: you know, a couple plays, who knows what happens. You

975
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:58,279
Speaker 1: know that the muff pund the Cousins pick and then

976
00:41:58,320 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 1: the fumble you know, got over turned. I never actually

977
00:42:01,120 --> 00:42:02,400
Speaker 1: got a really good look at it. I don't disagree

978
00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:03,879
Speaker 1: with call, but say that is a fumble, you say,

979
00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:06,239
Speaker 1: Fred turns around scores a touchdown. So this is what

980
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:09,439
Speaker 1: green Bay has to do because green Bay defense has

981
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:12,320
Speaker 1: been opportunistic all year, right. That's why a lot of

982
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:15,839
Speaker 1: their numbers they've won more games then their numbers would

983
00:42:15,840 --> 00:42:18,920
Speaker 1: indicate that they have. Is that their defense will give

984
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:20,480
Speaker 1: up a ton of yards and then they'll get a

985
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:23,480
Speaker 1: big pick, they'll get a big sack and pressure and

986
00:42:23,520 --> 00:42:26,279
Speaker 1: striped strip fumble, you know. So, and they didn't do

987
00:42:26,320 --> 00:42:27,920
Speaker 1: that in the first game against Sant Franz. But that's

988
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:29,920
Speaker 1: what the need to do here because there's, you know,

989
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:32,440
Speaker 1: one weakness in Jimmy G's game now is that he

990
00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:35,480
Speaker 1: will he can get caros with the ball and it's

991
00:42:35,520 --> 00:42:37,080
Speaker 1: not like he's chucking it downfield. I mean, this is

992
00:42:37,080 --> 00:42:39,040
Speaker 1: a guy with the lowest depth of target in the NFL.

993
00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:40,960
Speaker 1: He just has a bunch of receivers that are also

994
00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:42,920
Speaker 1: getting a ton of yards, which is where their explosiveness

995
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:46,160
Speaker 1: comes from when you're trying to stop their run. But

996
00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:47,760
Speaker 1: Green Bay is going to have to force a turnover.

997
00:42:47,800 --> 00:42:50,480
Speaker 1: This is the formula, especially for people listening to the future.

998
00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:52,960
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily disagree with your bet, like I'm not

999
00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:56,319
Speaker 1: betting Green Bay, but I'm not hedging my future. And

1000
00:42:56,360 --> 00:42:58,799
Speaker 1: I think that if you put a gun in my head,

1001
00:42:58,840 --> 00:43:01,160
Speaker 1: I'd probably just take the seven because that's how I'm programmed.

1002
00:43:01,239 --> 00:43:03,960
Speaker 1: But you know, because I make it right round a touchdown.

1003
00:43:04,239 --> 00:43:05,400
Speaker 1: But this is what they're gonna do. You have to

1004
00:43:05,440 --> 00:43:08,399
Speaker 1: get a fast start, have to absolute must. They're gonna

1005
00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:11,279
Speaker 1: have to get a turnover, which a turnover two I think,

1006
00:43:11,400 --> 00:43:13,719
Speaker 1: and then Rogers can't turn it over. I trust the

1007
00:43:14,080 --> 00:43:16,680
Speaker 1: Rogers won't turn it over more than the other two

1008
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:18,879
Speaker 1: because Rogers, I mean, it's probably I think maybe one

1009
00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:21,319
Speaker 1: or two in the NFL and turnover rate per game.

1010
00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:24,240
Speaker 1: But can they find a way in the scripted portion

1011
00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:26,600
Speaker 1: of the game where they exceled at all year. Can

1012
00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:30,920
Speaker 1: they find a way to have enough really solid scripted

1013
00:43:30,920 --> 00:43:33,280
Speaker 1: plays to go down the field they got to feed Adams,

1014
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:34,719
Speaker 1: I think, I mean, I think that the one week

1015
00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:37,360
Speaker 1: link in that secondary is potentially Witherspoon on the outside

1016
00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:41,120
Speaker 1: trying to stay with someone on in man coverage, which

1017
00:43:41,160 --> 00:43:43,640
Speaker 1: they'll run on third downs. He will play. He might

1018
00:43:43,680 --> 00:43:44,080
Speaker 1: not play.

1019
00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:46,239
Speaker 3: I mean he play, he'll play if they go to

1020
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:48,080
Speaker 3: four wide, I think, you know, but I don't know

1021
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 3: if he'll play.

1022
00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:53,040
Speaker 1: Whoever's Adams that's on third downs. I mean, that's where

1023
00:43:53,080 --> 00:43:55,160
Speaker 1: Rodgers has to look and has to because you're not

1024
00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:57,320
Speaker 1: gonna get anything the other side with anybody else against Sherman,

1025
00:43:58,640 --> 00:44:00,640
Speaker 1: and you're not going to get much up the middle

1026
00:44:01,640 --> 00:44:03,800
Speaker 1: with the way that their defense plays. So it's gonna

1027
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:07,760
Speaker 1: have to be Rogers buying time and then Adams beating

1028
00:44:07,760 --> 00:44:10,520
Speaker 1: his man on some third down plays. But it's turnovers.

1029
00:44:10,560 --> 00:44:13,520
Speaker 1: It's a fast start, and then you gotta force Jimmy

1030
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:15,839
Speaker 1: g into a mistake or two, and then your run

1031
00:44:15,880 --> 00:44:17,920
Speaker 1: defense has to be better. So it's a it's a

1032
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:20,600
Speaker 1: big ass for Green Bay. It's still a football game.

1033
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:25,280
Speaker 1: But I think San Fran should win this game and natural,

1034
00:44:25,280 --> 00:44:28,240
Speaker 1: I mean a natural transition into the money line underdog.

1035
00:44:29,280 --> 00:44:33,480
Speaker 1: I mean I think that the and I can't wait

1036
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:35,360
Speaker 1: to try and break down to get Mahomes versus the

1037
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:38,360
Speaker 1: San Fran defense, which would be crazy. But I think

1038
00:44:38,520 --> 00:44:40,799
Speaker 1: if you play these games out one hundred times each

1039
00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:46,960
Speaker 1: because of the one glaring weakness on Kansas City in

1040
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:49,880
Speaker 1: their run defense going up against Henry, and there's not

1041
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:52,600
Speaker 1: one of those with on sant Fran that Green Bay

1042
00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:57,440
Speaker 1: can exploit. Right, there's not Look at this matchup that

1043
00:44:57,480 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 1: if you played both these games one hundred times, I

1044
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:01,920
Speaker 1: think the Titans went out right more times than the

1045
00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 1: Packers went out right in a similar spread. So from

1046
00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:07,480
Speaker 1: a money line underdog perspective, if you're looking for one

1047
00:45:07,520 --> 00:45:09,640
Speaker 1: this weekend, even though I have a future on the pack,

1048
00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:12,520
Speaker 1: I'd probably choose Titans over Packers. The one thing that

1049
00:45:12,520 --> 00:45:13,759
Speaker 1: you could give yourself is you have, oh, you have

1050
00:45:13,800 --> 00:45:17,040
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers, blah blah blah. But I think that the

1051
00:45:17,080 --> 00:45:20,000
Speaker 1: Henry factor gives the Titans a real shot if they

1052
00:45:20,200 --> 00:45:23,319
Speaker 1: just because realistically this He's could average seven six seven

1053
00:45:23,400 --> 00:45:25,359
Speaker 1: yards of carry. He's he can wear this team down

1054
00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:28,319
Speaker 1: there dealing with the flu, especially no Chris Jones or

1055
00:45:28,480 --> 00:45:30,680
Speaker 1: it might not be Christians might not go in practice

1056
00:45:30,680 --> 00:45:32,879
Speaker 1: today dealing with the flu. It's gonna be like twenty

1057
00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:35,400
Speaker 1: five degrees. This defense just you see them in the

1058
00:45:35,440 --> 00:45:37,920
Speaker 1: second half, They're just worn down and Henry's gashing them.

1059
00:45:38,120 --> 00:45:40,919
Speaker 1: Tanhill makes a couple explosive pla action plays the first down,

1060
00:45:41,280 --> 00:45:43,320
Speaker 1: I see a route to Tennessee winning, even though I

1061
00:45:43,320 --> 00:45:45,440
Speaker 1: don't think they do more times than Green Bay.

1062
00:45:45,440 --> 00:45:47,280
Speaker 2: Would you agree, Yeah, I totally agree.

1063
00:45:47,280 --> 00:45:49,359
Speaker 3: I think, and I think they're depending on your book,

1064
00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:51,560
Speaker 3: if you can get some there's like some interesting parley

1065
00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:56,520
Speaker 3: opportunities with the Titans and Henry's rushing yardage and and

1066
00:45:56,600 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 3: them winning, because I mean, and I hate these stats,

1067
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:03,120
Speaker 3: you know, as far as because it does you run, Yeah,

1068
00:46:03,160 --> 00:46:05,840
Speaker 3: you run because you can because you're up, but it.

1069
00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:07,880
Speaker 1: Just runs it no matter what and when you're giving it.

1070
00:46:07,920 --> 00:46:10,200
Speaker 1: So Henry, no matter what, it's good, really good.

1071
00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:14,359
Speaker 3: Right, So the Titans are in games where Henry's run

1072
00:46:14,400 --> 00:46:18,120
Speaker 3: for ninety or more yards even they are undefeated, they

1073
00:46:18,160 --> 00:46:20,600
Speaker 3: they've won, they're nine to zero in games that he's

1074
00:46:20,680 --> 00:46:23,360
Speaker 3: run for even ninety yards, they're six and zero in

1075
00:46:23,440 --> 00:46:26,440
Speaker 3: games he's run for one hundred and forty nine or

1076
00:46:26,440 --> 00:46:28,440
Speaker 3: more yards, and all of those games, again have come

1077
00:46:28,480 --> 00:46:30,440
Speaker 3: over the second half of the season. So I mean,

1078
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:32,560
Speaker 3: you can get plus money on the Titans, you know,

1079
00:46:32,640 --> 00:46:34,759
Speaker 3: money line the Titans.

1080
00:46:34,120 --> 00:46:36,560
Speaker 2: About plus two ninety right now.

1081
00:46:36,840 --> 00:46:39,719
Speaker 3: You can also get plus money on Henry you know,

1082
00:46:40,080 --> 00:46:41,799
Speaker 3: his media and I think rushing prop for this week

1083
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:44,600
Speaker 3: because over under is one to ten. You can I

1084
00:46:44,719 --> 00:46:46,640
Speaker 3: mentioned earlier, you know, you can get like plus to

1085
00:46:47,360 --> 00:46:50,080
Speaker 3: two hundred on him going for one sixty or more

1086
00:46:50,160 --> 00:46:52,160
Speaker 3: or something like that. So you could there's some interesting

1087
00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:55,440
Speaker 3: parla parlay opportunities here if your book allows it. With

1088
00:46:55,600 --> 00:46:57,680
Speaker 3: Henry and the Titans, because the way you do beat

1089
00:46:57,680 --> 00:46:59,919
Speaker 3: the Chiefs is you do have to run the ball,

1090
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:02,560
Speaker 3: keep you know, convert, keep stay ahead of the chains,

1091
00:47:02,600 --> 00:47:05,200
Speaker 3: and keep that offense off the field with Mahomes and

1092
00:47:05,200 --> 00:47:08,040
Speaker 3: then hope they make you know, they commit a turnover too,

1093
00:47:08,080 --> 00:47:10,520
Speaker 3: like they did early in that in that Houston game.

1094
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:11,480
Speaker 2: So yeah, I totally agree.

1095
00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:13,600
Speaker 3: I think I just don't have a lot of confidence

1096
00:47:13,600 --> 00:47:15,640
Speaker 3: in this Green Bay team. Their margin for error to

1097
00:47:15,680 --> 00:47:17,760
Speaker 3: me is just so much smart. And I think this line,

1098
00:47:18,040 --> 00:47:19,760
Speaker 3: I think the line and the odds kind of reflect

1099
00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 3: you know, Rogers, the whole Rodgers factor and the fact

1100
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:25,200
Speaker 3: that San Francisco's you know, they've been dominant when healthy

1101
00:47:25,239 --> 00:47:27,959
Speaker 3: on defense, but they haven't really been here before. And

1102
00:47:28,000 --> 00:47:30,520
Speaker 3: you know, Garoppolo hasn't been in this in this spot before.

1103
00:47:30,560 --> 00:47:33,000
Speaker 3: But I mean you look at Garoppolo just as a starter,

1104
00:47:33,360 --> 00:47:35,880
Speaker 3: you know, he has not lost very many games, you know,

1105
00:47:36,160 --> 00:47:38,160
Speaker 3: you know, even in San Francisco that first year he

1106
00:47:38,200 --> 00:47:41,359
Speaker 3: came over in twenty seventeen, he goes five and oh.

1107
00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:44,080
Speaker 3: So in the regular season as a starter he is

1108
00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:46,800
Speaker 3: twenty one and five, you know, to with the Patriots,

1109
00:47:46,840 --> 00:47:48,920
Speaker 3: and then with the Niners he's nineteen and five. And

1110
00:47:48,960 --> 00:47:51,240
Speaker 3: then you add in that victory last week against the Vikings,

1111
00:47:51,239 --> 00:47:53,920
Speaker 3: so he's twenty and five as a starter for the

1112
00:47:53,920 --> 00:47:56,799
Speaker 3: San Francisco forty nine ers, you know, so you know

1113
00:47:56,960 --> 00:47:59,440
Speaker 3: he yeah, he gets blitzed a out, he'll make some mistakes,

1114
00:47:59,640 --> 00:48:02,279
Speaker 3: but you know, he's been pretty reliable as far as

1115
00:48:02,400 --> 00:48:04,640
Speaker 3: the Niners winning the game. So I actually did take

1116
00:48:05,400 --> 00:48:07,759
Speaker 3: the money line for the Niners. You know, anything could happen,

1117
00:48:07,840 --> 00:48:10,279
Speaker 3: you know, one possession game, whatnot. But I do feel

1118
00:48:10,320 --> 00:48:14,400
Speaker 3: pretty confident in San Francisco winning in Kansas City. I

1119
00:48:14,440 --> 00:48:16,399
Speaker 3: just think there's a wider range of outcomes as there

1120
00:48:16,440 --> 00:48:19,680
Speaker 3: has been all year in these in these Titans games.

1121
00:48:19,800 --> 00:48:21,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the one, if you look at the

1122
00:48:21,880 --> 00:48:25,960
Speaker 1: two dogs, the one, and there's there's some variants in

1123
00:48:26,640 --> 00:48:30,759
Speaker 1: single season red zone numbers, just like fumble numbers, but

1124
00:48:30,840 --> 00:48:34,320
Speaker 1: they do speak to certain factors and certain teams based

1125
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:36,200
Speaker 1: on how they're build are going to be better scoring

1126
00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:38,560
Speaker 1: touchdowns in the red zone. But you know, because of

1127
00:48:38,640 --> 00:48:40,800
Speaker 1: Baltimore last week, they actually dropped down. So if you

1128
00:48:40,840 --> 00:48:43,960
Speaker 1: look at season long stats through the playoffs through last

1129
00:48:44,000 --> 00:48:47,120
Speaker 1: this weekend, number one in the NFL red zone scoring

1130
00:48:46,880 --> 00:48:49,840
Speaker 1: touchdown percentage, and this is increased with Mariota when they

1131
00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:52,919
Speaker 1: were bad. Tennessee it's seventy eight percent. Well, Kansas City

1132
00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:54,600
Speaker 1: has not been great in the red zone this year,

1133
00:48:54,760 --> 00:48:57,800
Speaker 1: and obviously it's just more restricted space with Mahomes in

1134
00:48:57,840 --> 00:49:00,240
Speaker 1: that passing attack, and they're not a great running team,

1135
00:49:00,440 --> 00:49:03,400
Speaker 1: which is why their red zone numbers aren't elite for

1136
00:49:03,440 --> 00:49:06,040
Speaker 1: an elite offense. But Tennessee number one in the NFL.

1137
00:49:06,160 --> 00:49:09,040
Speaker 1: Kansas City's sitting at like thirteenth. They're not terrible, they're

1138
00:49:09,040 --> 00:49:10,960
Speaker 1: just it's not their strength. And then you know it's

1139
00:49:11,000 --> 00:49:12,440
Speaker 1: number two in the NFL right now is Green Bay.

1140
00:49:12,520 --> 00:49:15,520
Speaker 1: So green Bay is sixty six percent and San fran

1141
00:49:15,600 --> 00:49:18,319
Speaker 1: has not been good, so they're twenty first. So that

1142
00:49:18,440 --> 00:49:23,400
Speaker 1: is another way and playoff pressure that these dogs and

1143
00:49:23,400 --> 00:49:25,279
Speaker 1: I should have mentioned this with Green Bay, but they're

1144
00:49:25,280 --> 00:49:29,720
Speaker 1: gonna have to continue their pace on offense scoring touchdowns

1145
00:49:29,719 --> 00:49:31,560
Speaker 1: in the red zones. They neither of these teams can't settle.

1146
00:49:31,719 --> 00:49:33,440
Speaker 1: They can't settle for field goals when they get into

1147
00:49:33,480 --> 00:49:35,600
Speaker 1: the red zone, Green Bay or Tennessee, and they're going

1148
00:49:35,680 --> 00:49:38,879
Speaker 1: to have to hold Kansas City and or San fran

1149
00:49:39,040 --> 00:49:41,320
Speaker 1: to a couple of field goals because they can't afford

1150
00:49:41,320 --> 00:49:43,480
Speaker 1: to just continue to give up touchdowns. So keep an

1151
00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:45,719
Speaker 1: eye on the red zone as well, because these two

1152
00:49:45,800 --> 00:49:47,640
Speaker 1: underdogs on the road, they're number one and number two

1153
00:49:47,680 --> 00:49:51,080
Speaker 1: in red zone scoring touchdown percentage, playing two really good offenses,

1154
00:49:51,160 --> 00:49:53,680
Speaker 1: but that hasn't been their strength in the red zone.

1155
00:49:53,800 --> 00:49:55,000
Speaker 1: So something to keep in mind.

1156
00:49:55,200 --> 00:49:57,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, I think that's that's a good point on

1157
00:49:57,280 --> 00:49:59,080
Speaker 3: Green Bay. That is I mean, and that's.

1158
00:49:58,920 --> 00:49:59,640
Speaker 2: Why it's so tough.

1159
00:49:59,680 --> 00:50:01,920
Speaker 1: At the same time, when they get a chance, they

1160
00:50:01,920 --> 00:50:03,719
Speaker 1: score a touchdowns. So it's like that's why their numbers

1161
00:50:03,760 --> 00:50:04,240
Speaker 1: are skewed.

1162
00:50:04,960 --> 00:50:08,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, Like they have to convert and it's it's gonna

1163
00:50:08,320 --> 00:50:10,840
Speaker 3: be tough, you know, with saying with this defense healthy,

1164
00:50:10,880 --> 00:50:14,200
Speaker 3: I think for for Tennessee it's going to be a

1165
00:50:14,239 --> 00:50:14,719
Speaker 3: little bit.

1166
00:50:14,960 --> 00:50:16,080
Speaker 2: I think they can you know, they.

1167
00:50:16,080 --> 00:50:18,680
Speaker 3: Can convert in the red zone because they can continue

1168
00:50:18,680 --> 00:50:20,280
Speaker 3: to convert in the red zone and they can probably

1169
00:50:20,320 --> 00:50:22,520
Speaker 3: get a stop or two on Mahomes because again, they

1170
00:50:22,560 --> 00:50:24,480
Speaker 3: tend to play a lot of coverage. They'll double people

1171
00:50:24,840 --> 00:50:26,480
Speaker 3: and just kind of force you to you know, I'm

1172
00:50:26,480 --> 00:50:28,799
Speaker 3: sure Sammy Watkins is the guy. He may he's a

1173
00:50:28,800 --> 00:50:30,840
Speaker 3: potential X factor. We seen him come alive in the

1174
00:50:30,840 --> 00:50:33,480
Speaker 3: playoffs last year. I think he'll get his opportunities. Uh.

1175
00:50:33,640 --> 00:50:35,960
Speaker 2: And then I think Damian Williams or another one, you know,

1176
00:50:36,040 --> 00:50:36,960
Speaker 2: DeMarcus Robinson.

1177
00:50:37,000 --> 00:50:40,160
Speaker 3: He's it's like playing without without a fifth receiver sometimes

1178
00:50:40,160 --> 00:50:42,640
Speaker 3: when he's out there. So that's kind of another advantage

1179
00:50:42,640 --> 00:50:44,399
Speaker 3: for Tennessee, especially when you get in the red zone.

1180
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:46,640
Speaker 1: So yeah, Jennesse is not a great running team this year,

1181
00:50:46,680 --> 00:50:49,080
Speaker 1: and Tennessee strikes is run defense. So it just takes,

1182
00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:52,880
Speaker 1: you know, a good coverage call or to Mahomes overthrow

1183
00:50:53,000 --> 00:50:54,439
Speaker 1: and then all of a sudden, that's a field goal.

1184
00:50:54,840 --> 00:50:57,000
Speaker 1: That's that's huge. So keeping one on the on the

1185
00:50:57,080 --> 00:50:58,719
Speaker 1: what happens in the red zone on both sides in

1186
00:50:58,760 --> 00:51:01,320
Speaker 1: both games. And I think that if you're Green Bay

1187
00:51:01,560 --> 00:51:03,640
Speaker 1: and Tennessee, you got to call both games a little

1188
00:51:03,640 --> 00:51:06,360
Speaker 1: aggressively here and depending on the time and situation, but

1189
00:51:06,440 --> 00:51:08,440
Speaker 1: especially if you're Tennessee, if you're fourth and one at

1190
00:51:08,520 --> 00:51:11,279
Speaker 1: that midfield fourth and two, you're going you go every time,

1191
00:51:11,480 --> 00:51:14,280
Speaker 1: twenty thirty yards to Mahomes against your secondary is nothing,

1192
00:51:14,520 --> 00:51:16,840
Speaker 1: especially when you can hand it to Henry or have

1193
00:51:16,880 --> 00:51:19,880
Speaker 1: a great play action pass drawn up against this Chiefs

1194
00:51:19,920 --> 00:51:23,600
Speaker 1: run defense. So the aggressive level of both, you know,

1195
00:51:23,960 --> 00:51:26,280
Speaker 1: coaches who have never been here before on the road,

1196
00:51:26,560 --> 00:51:31,520
Speaker 1: how conservative do they get given the moment and stage.

1197
00:51:32,640 --> 00:51:34,239
Speaker 1: I think is Is will go a long way because

1198
00:51:34,239 --> 00:51:35,759
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna both need to be aggressive at

1199
00:51:35,760 --> 00:51:36,400
Speaker 1: the right times.

1200
00:51:36,760 --> 00:51:39,960
Speaker 3: Absolutely, and it probably favors Tennessee over I would say

1201
00:51:39,960 --> 00:51:43,120
Speaker 3: the Packers. Yeah, again, just because drabel Is vrabel is

1202
00:51:43,200 --> 00:51:45,560
Speaker 3: kind of asserting himself, you know, former Belichick guy.

1203
00:51:46,360 --> 00:51:47,560
Speaker 2: You know this is this could be a coming out

1204
00:51:47,600 --> 00:51:48,840
Speaker 2: party Ram if he's able.

1205
00:51:48,640 --> 00:51:51,200
Speaker 1: To not agree and Green Bay you might not do

1206
00:51:51,280 --> 00:51:53,279
Speaker 1: it based on the situation. Like so, if it does

1207
00:51:53,320 --> 00:51:55,160
Speaker 1: turn out to be a really low scoring game and

1208
00:51:55,200 --> 00:51:56,960
Speaker 1: you're in it, then you might want to punt it

1209
00:51:57,040 --> 00:52:00,719
Speaker 1: more so than Tennessee who I you know, it's with

1210
00:52:00,760 --> 00:52:02,560
Speaker 1: that advantage with Henry and what Mahomes can do to

1211
00:52:02,600 --> 00:52:04,839
Speaker 1: your secondary, you have to be aggressive at the right

1212
00:52:04,840 --> 00:52:08,200
Speaker 1: times on these fourth and ones. Absolutely, all right, before

1213
00:52:08,239 --> 00:52:10,600
Speaker 1: you go, there's only two games, a couple of picks,

1214
00:52:10,800 --> 00:52:13,560
Speaker 1: and by the way, College Basketball Podcast episode will be

1215
00:52:13,560 --> 00:52:15,839
Speaker 1: released later this week once a week coming, so stay

1216
00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:18,799
Speaker 1: tuned for details on that. But the Raybotton also does

1217
00:52:18,840 --> 00:52:22,399
Speaker 1: the Fantasy podcast, which comes out the day before you're

1218
00:52:22,440 --> 00:52:25,520
Speaker 1: listening to this most likely, so it's released on Wednesdays.

1219
00:52:25,600 --> 00:52:27,319
Speaker 1: You know, So people are riching for a little more action,

1220
00:52:27,360 --> 00:52:29,080
Speaker 1: why don't you throw out one prop? And you might

1221
00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:31,800
Speaker 1: have mentioned Artie, but what's a prop that you're targeting

1222
00:52:31,920 --> 00:52:33,279
Speaker 1: for this weekend? Off who you think would have a

1223
00:52:33,280 --> 00:52:33,719
Speaker 1: big day?

1224
00:52:34,080 --> 00:52:35,759
Speaker 3: Since I bet so many of these, and you can

1225
00:52:35,760 --> 00:52:38,760
Speaker 3: follow me obviously in the action app for all the picks,

1226
00:52:38,760 --> 00:52:41,080
Speaker 3: but I'll just draw on a few that I already bet.

1227
00:52:41,239 --> 00:52:43,920
Speaker 3: As we have recorded this, you can tell me how

1228
00:52:43,920 --> 00:52:46,120
Speaker 3: you feel about these really quick. But I got Aaron

1229
00:52:46,200 --> 00:52:48,920
Speaker 3: Rodgers under two hundred and forty and a half passing yards,

1230
00:52:49,200 --> 00:52:51,560
Speaker 3: him under one and a half touchdowns. And these are

1231
00:52:51,560 --> 00:52:55,640
Speaker 3: both that standard jew so minus one fourteen standard prop juice,

1232
00:52:55,640 --> 00:52:57,640
Speaker 3: I should say, and then I have put in the

1233
00:52:57,640 --> 00:53:00,320
Speaker 3: app here, but I'm going to grab Derrick Henry's rushing

1234
00:53:00,360 --> 00:53:02,719
Speaker 3: yards over at one ten and probably another one of

1235
00:53:02,719 --> 00:53:06,360
Speaker 3: those like the one forty or one fifty, you know

1236
00:53:06,640 --> 00:53:08,640
Speaker 3: at plus money, So those are the ones. Oh and

1237
00:53:08,680 --> 00:53:10,479
Speaker 3: then I have Rogers over twelve and a half rushing

1238
00:53:10,520 --> 00:53:12,719
Speaker 3: yards because I do think that that's something that they

1239
00:53:12,760 --> 00:53:14,759
Speaker 3: will incorporate a little bit more. You know, season on

1240
00:53:14,800 --> 00:53:16,840
Speaker 3: the line got sacked five times. I think it was

1241
00:53:16,880 --> 00:53:18,840
Speaker 3: anyway in the first game, so I think they'll try to,

1242
00:53:19,360 --> 00:53:21,080
Speaker 3: you know what, that'll be one of the ways to

1243
00:53:21,120 --> 00:53:22,880
Speaker 3: mitigate this pass rush. You know, they'll align in a

1244
00:53:22,920 --> 00:53:25,040
Speaker 3: wide nine, and I think he'll step up and try

1245
00:53:25,040 --> 00:53:27,280
Speaker 3: to take some easy yardage on the ground.

1246
00:53:27,600 --> 00:53:28,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't hate any of it. I mean the

1247
00:53:28,719 --> 00:53:30,680
Speaker 1: way I think the way the easiest way you lose

1248
00:53:30,680 --> 00:53:32,640
Speaker 1: the Packers one is if it's like a blowout and

1249
00:53:33,040 --> 00:53:36,640
Speaker 1: Rogers will making garbage stuff. But yeah, but obviously that's

1250
00:53:36,880 --> 00:53:39,480
Speaker 1: always a factor. But yeah, I like those overall. I

1251
00:53:39,480 --> 00:53:41,480
Speaker 1: whichh there's a prop for Tyler Irvan pummer turn touchdown.

1252
00:53:41,480 --> 00:53:42,680
Speaker 1: Packers are going to need to go peck go.

1253
00:53:43,040 --> 00:53:44,760
Speaker 3: There are there you can bet on, I mean, defense

1254
00:53:44,760 --> 00:53:45,880
Speaker 3: special teams touchdowns, Like.

1255
00:53:45,880 --> 00:53:49,080
Speaker 1: There's Tyler Irvans specifically if they priced him specifically for

1256
00:53:49,160 --> 00:53:52,080
Speaker 1: a pumpker turn touchdown. All right. That's all I got, brother,

1257
00:53:52,200 --> 00:53:53,279
Speaker 1: good stuff, all right.

1258
00:53:53,320 --> 00:53:55,680
Speaker 3: So that does it for another episode of the Action

1259
00:53:55,760 --> 00:53:59,240
Speaker 3: Network podcast. One quick note, we will actually be back

1260
00:53:59,640 --> 00:54:03,040
Speaker 3: right after the two games are decided. We're going to

1261
00:54:03,120 --> 00:54:06,160
Speaker 3: record a pod, a reaction pod right after that, so

1262
00:54:06,200 --> 00:54:09,920
Speaker 3: it should be up late Sunday night previewing the Super

1263
00:54:09,920 --> 00:54:14,160
Speaker 3: Bowl matchup and looking back quickly at the two conference

1264
00:54:14,200 --> 00:54:17,120
Speaker 3: championship games. So be on the lookout for that, and

1265
00:54:17,160 --> 00:54:20,920
Speaker 3: then we'll be back with our normal schedule throughout the

1266
00:54:20,920 --> 00:54:21,480
Speaker 3: rest of the week.

1267
00:54:21,520 --> 00:54:22,800
Speaker 2: We'll do a super Bowl episode.

1268
00:54:22,840 --> 00:54:26,160
Speaker 3: We'll do a Fantasy Flex as well, but do look

1269
00:54:26,200 --> 00:54:29,560
Speaker 3: out for Stuck and I coming to you on Sunday

1270
00:54:29,640 --> 00:54:32,759
Speaker 3: night with a reaction pod and a Super Bowl preview

1271
00:54:33,080 --> 00:54:37,080
Speaker 3: that night. And one more reminder, download the Action app

1272
00:54:37,239 --> 00:54:39,960
Speaker 3: again if you don't have it. You can follow Stucky

1273
00:54:40,000 --> 00:54:43,400
Speaker 3: at Stucky two and me at Chris Raybond in the

1274
00:54:43,440 --> 00:54:46,359
Speaker 3: app to track all of our picks as well as

1275
00:54:46,400 --> 00:54:48,759
Speaker 3: your own, and you can get live odds and in

1276
00:54:48,920 --> 00:54:52,200
Speaker 3: game win probabilities. You can also follow Stucky at Stucky

1277
00:54:52,200 --> 00:54:55,640
Speaker 3: two on Twitter and me I'm at Chris Raybond on Twitter.

1278
00:54:55,880 --> 00:54:59,120
Speaker 3: Be sure to check out actionnetwork dot com for all

1279
00:54:59,160 --> 00:55:04,280
Speaker 3: of your NFL betting needs this Championship week and beyond,

1280
00:55:04,320 --> 00:55:06,080
Speaker 3: as well as all the other sports.

1281
00:55:06,600 --> 00:55:09,080
Speaker 2: Be here to check that out. Let's get this money

1282
00:55:09,320 --> 00:55:10,360
Speaker 2: and good luck this weekend.

1283
00:55:10,680 --> 00:55:21,160
Speaker 1: Go back. We're finished talking