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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm Thomas Viola, and the NFL Draft is just days

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Speaker 1: away right here in my own backyard in Las Vegas,

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Speaker 1: so it's time to take a look at.

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Speaker 2: Some draft props with some draft experts.

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Speaker 1: So joining me today none other than Fantasy Pro's own

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Speaker 1: Matt Friedman and from Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life, Elliott Christ. Gentlemen,

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Speaker 1: how are you doing today?

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Speaker 3: I'm doing fantastic.

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Speaker 4: I The only complaint I have is that it's not

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Speaker 4: Thursday at this point, Like I don't need any more rumors. Obviously,

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Speaker 4: that's one of the things we're gonna talk about today

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Speaker 4: and how to shift through them and understand what's smoke

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Speaker 4: and what's not smoke. Friday, we had that Bibbs was

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Speaker 4: a top five lock in no way he could fall,

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Speaker 4: and then an hour ago people are saying they'd be

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Speaker 4: shocked to they see him in the top eight. I

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Speaker 4: think we're up to about fifteen guys who are guaranteed

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Speaker 4: to go top ten. So it's an exciting time to

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Speaker 4: figure out how every things are going, and major line

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Speaker 4: movement for first overall pick yesterday, so you know, again

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Speaker 4: just excited as a Jets fan.

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Speaker 3: This is the only time that there's any reason to

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Speaker 3: be excited.

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Speaker 1: And you know, the best part about being a Jets

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Speaker 1: fan is coming up on Thursday. It is that every

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Speaker 1: year we only have to watch the first thirty minutes

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Speaker 1: of the draft. It's the most convenient time in our fandom.

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Speaker 3: Elliott Well, in fairness, I watched the whole draft. You know.

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Speaker 4: Bill Burr once said, basically, watching the draft is like

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Speaker 4: going to high school graduation where you don't know any

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Speaker 4: of the players. You don't know any of people graduating,

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Speaker 4: but I don't care. I'm still proud of all of them.

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Speaker 4: So I will be cheering them or billing them based

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Speaker 4: on whether or not I bet them, has nothing to

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Speaker 4: do with the player themselves.

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Speaker 1: I can already spoil what the Jets draft is going

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Speaker 1: to be. At four, they're going to take an edge

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Speaker 1: rusher who's going to go decently for his second team.

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Speaker 1: And at ten, they're going to take a cornerback that's

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Speaker 1: going to have injury issues and be out of the

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Speaker 1: league before the end of his first contracts. That's already

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Speaker 1: what's going to happen there for the Jets. Everything else

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Speaker 1: is the question Mark Matt, how are you doing today?

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Speaker 5: I'm doing all right. And your assessment of what might

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Speaker 5: happen for the Jets, I would say, not entirely accurate,

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Speaker 5: but pretty close. I mean, I think it's it's fairly accurate.

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Speaker 4: We're going to take a receiver at ten who's not

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Speaker 4: going to be out of the league in four years,

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Speaker 4: not a.

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Speaker 3: Part of this time.

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Speaker 2: That's the change.

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Speaker 1: There's that one cornerback I absolutely do not want us

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Speaker 1: to get. I hope we get Sauce Gardner. But that's

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Speaker 1: all beside the point.

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Speaker 2: Gentlemen.

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Speaker 1: We are here not to talk about the picks and

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Speaker 1: where we think people are gonna go. We're here to

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Speaker 1: talk about the bets, and so let's get right on

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Speaker 1: into it. You each have your five favorite draft props. Now,

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Speaker 1: both of.

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Speaker 2: You, of course, have way over five props.

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Speaker 1: Guys, how many props do you have in total that

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Speaker 1: you have already pet planned out, already tickets purchased.

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Speaker 3: So I'm a.

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Speaker 4: Little worried answering this because I'm pretty sure my fiance

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Speaker 4: is right in the other room and can actually hear this.

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Speaker 3: But my answer is ninety eight. It's a big one.

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Speaker 4: I've got I think my longest shot bet is seventy

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Speaker 4: to one, and my biggest favorite is minus five hundred,

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Speaker 4: So there's a wide range of props. I think it's

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Speaker 4: a very interesting thing with the draft where you want

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Speaker 4: to embrace variants because it's very like any other event.

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Speaker 4: And one of the mistakes we make is we assume

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Speaker 4: we know the top four, so we know what's gonna

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Speaker 4: happen at five and the second one.

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Speaker 3: You want to leave yourself a lot of outs.

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Speaker 4: There are also things that are minus five hundred that

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Speaker 4: should basically be minus infinity, where like Trevor Penning in

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Speaker 4: the first round, for example, Draft Kings was offering him

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Speaker 4: at minus five hundred, which is about an eighty percent

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Speaker 4: implied probability.

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Speaker 3: But if you look at mock.

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Speaker 4: Drafts, he's in the first round and about ninety nine

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Speaker 4: percent of them, and he's juiced to the under at

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Speaker 4: sixteen and a half, and it's you know, I've had

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Speaker 4: cowboys beat writers tweet me like he's not fallen past

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Speaker 4: twenty four.

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Speaker 3: I don't worry about your money.

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Speaker 4: It's like one of those situations where you put that

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Speaker 4: bed in nine days later you get a twenty percent

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Speaker 4: return on that.

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Speaker 3: There's not a stock. You wouldn't do that for right.

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Speaker 4: So the draft creates so many unique opportunities, but right

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Speaker 4: now I'm at ninety eight.

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Speaker 3: Still a few out there that are that are good.

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Speaker 4: Values that we'll obviously talk about, but a lot to

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Speaker 4: too throw when you have to pick.

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Speaker 2: Top five, Matt, how about you?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, seventy two. I scaled back this year. The final

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Speaker 5: number last year was two hundred and ninety eight, which

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Speaker 5: was just absolutely ridiculous. And a lot of that was

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Speaker 5: kind of piling on positions that I already had and

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Speaker 5: then hedging here and hedging there, and sort of like

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Speaker 5: buying and selling. And this year I just kind of decided,

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Speaker 5: like I don't want to I don't want to put

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Speaker 5: myself through that again. And it's also just a different draft.

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Speaker 5: Last year, I felt we had much more certainty about

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Speaker 5: what was going to happen in the top ten, and

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Speaker 5: it just made it much easier to fire at certain positions.

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Speaker 5: And this year, we just we don't have that, and

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Speaker 5: so I didn't want to make as much of an investment.

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Speaker 5: And plus the books last year, maybe some of this

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Speaker 5: was just you know, COVID related, but they put out

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Speaker 5: many more props earlier in the process, and this year,

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Speaker 5: I think because they got beat so badly last year,

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Speaker 5: they were just very slow to release some some props

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Speaker 5: and so, you know, it just it got to the

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Speaker 5: point where it's like, I don't care about this draft

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Speaker 5: as much as I cared about last year's. That's almost

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Speaker 5: a horrible thing to say, but it just it doesn't

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Speaker 5: excite me the way that last year's did.

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Speaker 4: I think two really important points there though. Or One

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Speaker 4: is the quarterbacks. We don't have the five first round

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Speaker 4: guys that everyone's excited about like last year. But two,

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Speaker 4: in terms of draft betting, Circa dropped a lot of

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Speaker 4: props last year, and they dropped their first props today

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Speaker 4: and they even messaged people that they were only dropping

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Speaker 4: thirty two. Last year they were I think it was

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Speaker 4: one hundred and ten. So like this time last year

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Speaker 4: we had props on aman ross A Brown, we don't.

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Speaker 4: We have a punter prop randomly on Caesar's and Fox

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Speaker 4: bet for Arizara. Whatever you guy's name is, the punk

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Speaker 4: god from San Diego State. I know a lot more

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Speaker 4: about these guys draft positions than potentially how you pronounced

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Speaker 4: their names.

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Speaker 3: But who cares?

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Speaker 4: And you so so a lot of books just followed them,

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Speaker 4: so we were losing some of that stuff. There's a

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Speaker 4: lot less sack around guys, I will say, but by

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Speaker 4: the time Friday hits, they'll drop a bunch of sucker

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Speaker 4: round props to I'll probably end up with closer to

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Speaker 4: one hundred and thirty or on hundred and forty total

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Speaker 4: bets on the draft.

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Speaker 3: But I think those are two major factors along with COVID.

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Speaker 1: And I think that one of the big things Matt

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Speaker 1: you talked about the lack of buzz and Elliott, I

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Speaker 1: think you're completely right that it's partially quarterback related. I

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Speaker 1: think the other thing is nine teams don't have a

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Speaker 1: first round pick, so that's almost a third of NFL

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Speaker 1: fan bases who are simply not excited for the first round.

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Speaker 1: So you're not seeing as much buzz. But the other

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Speaker 1: thing that you both hit on variants and the fact

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Speaker 1: that we don't really know what's going to happen in

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Speaker 1: this draft at a much higher level with years past.

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Speaker 1: I think it's a down draft class. I think we

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Speaker 1: all kind of I think that's the expert consensus right now,

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Speaker 1: but it means that teams could have wildly different evaluations

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Speaker 1: of some of these guys, even right at the top.

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Speaker 1: And that's why, like you said, Thibodeau was a lock

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Speaker 1: to go top five, and now people aren't projecting him

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Speaker 1: in their top eight. It's we don't know what's going

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Speaker 1: to happen, and there's a lot more opportunities to make

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Speaker 1: money if you can be the one with the right

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Speaker 1: positions and really cover all your angles. So with that,

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Speaker 1: let's get on in to some of these picks here, Matt,

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Speaker 1: I'll have you go first.

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Speaker 2: Your first bet up on the board for us.

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Speaker 1: You've got Kenny Pickett over twelve and a half on

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Speaker 1: the draft positioning here, not high on picket, but where

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Speaker 1: are you thinking he's going to go?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, twelve and a half, obviously taking the over there.

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Speaker 5: I have this minus one twenty five at Fox bet

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Speaker 5: right now. Increasingly I believe that the Panthers will go

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Speaker 5: with a veteran quarterback Sam Darnold, maybe Baker Mayfield, maybe

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Speaker 5: Jimmy Garoppolo after a trade. But I think that means

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Speaker 5: there's not going to be a good landing spot for

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Speaker 5: quarterback within the top twelve. I mean you could look

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Speaker 5: at Seattle and think, okay, well, they obviously need a quarterback.

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Speaker 5: But you know, I have an index of sharp mock

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Speaker 5: drafts and only one of them has a quarterback going

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Speaker 5: to the Seahawks. There's basically no buzz there that they're

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Speaker 5: going to take a quarterback. I don't think a team

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Speaker 5: is going to need to trade up into the top

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Speaker 5: twelve to get its quarterback or choice. And let's say,

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Speaker 5: even if the Panthers do take a quarterback, there's maybe

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Speaker 5: only a fifty percent chance that that's Kenny Pickett, and

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Speaker 5: maybe even fifty percent chance is too high there. So

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Speaker 5: I think this is a smash over twelve and a

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Speaker 5: half for Kenny Pickett minus one twenty five. But I mean,

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Speaker 5: I think you could bet this up to minus one fifty.

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Speaker 2: I definitely, I definitely think that that makes a lot

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Speaker 2: of sense.

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Speaker 1: My only worry there is quarterbacks get inflated in that

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Speaker 1: lead up to draft day. I mean, how many guys

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Speaker 1: have you seen just shoot up the boards at the

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Speaker 1: last minute? And that might sink you, but I don't think.

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Speaker 1: I don't think you're wrong. I think the logic there

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Speaker 1: sound Elliott. What about you? You your fifth pick on

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Speaker 1: the board here for us, is in fact a pick

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Speaker 1: on the first overall pick in the draft.

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Speaker 2: Who do you think is going number one?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? Real quick?

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Speaker 4: I do really agree with Freeman on Kenny Pickett. I

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Speaker 4: got them at nine and a half. There's a decent

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Speaker 4: shot he doesn't go in the first round. I wish

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Speaker 4: I could get odds on that one. Traymon Walker is

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Speaker 4: someone that I've been high on from a betting perspective

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Speaker 4: for the last three or so weeks. There's been a

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Speaker 4: lot of rumblings about him. I got him at plus

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Speaker 4: three fifty. I hit it again at plus one ninety,

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Speaker 4: and frankly, I wouldn't be mad at you if you

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Speaker 4: hit it at minus one sixty. And I know that

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Speaker 4: seems crazy and people are gonna tell me about his

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Speaker 4: profile lack of production, but again, it doesn't matter. One

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Speaker 4: of the biggest mistakes you can make is trying to

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Speaker 4: analyze the prospect. I'm thinking that that matters. Trent Balky

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Speaker 4: loves guys with longer arms. Hutchinson's got like a seven

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Speaker 4: percentile arm like.

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Speaker 3: Walker was a what. The third best.

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Speaker 4: Athlete to test ever and the RAZ score most comparably

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Speaker 4: notable is Miles Garrett. He's got off the charts, athleticism,

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Speaker 4: off the charts size, and Balkey is said to be

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Speaker 4: in love with him, and all the reports are now

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Speaker 4: that Hutchinson's not even in the conversation, it's him or Icky,

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Speaker 4: and that it'll come down to Balk evers Peterson, and

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Speaker 4: Balky's got the set. I think there's a good chance

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Speaker 4: this closes at minus four minus five hundred by draft day.

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Speaker 3: So I still think there's some value at minus one six.

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Speaker 2: Matt Any thoughts on the first pick from you real quick?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I agree with Elliott there. And the first MOC

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Speaker 5: I had at Fantasy Pros, I had Travon Walker as

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Speaker 5: the number one pick, and you know that was at

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Speaker 5: a point when it was fairly unpopular. I you know,

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Speaker 5: it vacillated back and forth between Walker and Hutchinson. But

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Speaker 5: my my main point with Walker was saying, like, you know,

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Speaker 5: at that point, like eighty ninety percent of mocks had

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Speaker 5: Hutchinson number one, and it was like, this is not

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Speaker 5: a situation where what we see in the mocks is

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Speaker 5: an accurate representation of reality. You know, at that point

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Speaker 5: I would have said, there is maybe only like a

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Speaker 5: sixty five percent chance that he would be the number

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Speaker 5: one pick. So I agree with this I think the

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Speaker 5: odds will continue to move towards Walker the closer we

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Speaker 5: get to draft day. So you know, something like this,

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Speaker 5: It is maybe a little unappetizing to lay the juice,

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Speaker 5: but I think that's where the value is.

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Speaker 1: I think the other small wrinkle there is the fact

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Speaker 1: that Hutchinson's from Michigan. Of course, Jim Harbaugh the coach

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Speaker 1: over there Balkey. He and Harbaugh known bad blood from

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Speaker 1: their time in San Francisco. I don't think he wants

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Speaker 1: to give Harball the satisfaction of having the number one

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Speaker 1: overall pick come out of his school there. But that

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Speaker 1: is by far not a narrative to go ahead and

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Speaker 1: be gambling on. I'm going to go back to Elliott here,

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Speaker 1: will Snake draft this Elliott next up? You don't think

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Speaker 1: a running back is going to be drafted in the

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Speaker 1: first round, No.

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Speaker 5: I do not.

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Speaker 4: I think that the odds of minus one eighty minus

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Speaker 4: one ninety, depending on where you look, are really good.

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Speaker 4: Breist Hall is the most likely guy to go Round

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Speaker 4: one is over under his thirty nine and a half.

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Speaker 4: That's seven picks over.

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Speaker 3: That.

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Speaker 4: The only team that people say can even draft a

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Speaker 4: running back in the bottom seven eight Picks or the Bills,

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Speaker 4: and they are plus six hundred a draft A running back.

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Speaker 4: Kenneth Walker is the other guy that people talk about.

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Speaker 4: I know you guys have had some cage matches, and

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Speaker 4: unfortunately for Debro, he continues to lose them. As Breese

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Speaker 4: Hall is the correct answer. But Kenneth Walker's over runner

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Speaker 4: came out today at fifty four and a half. James

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Speaker 4: Cook is another guy that has gotten some love. I

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Speaker 4: don't hate him at ten to one to be the

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Speaker 4: second running back drafted. He opened up as high as

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Speaker 4: twenty to one, but his over runner came out today

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Speaker 4: on CIRCA.

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Speaker 3: It's sixty nine and a half.

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Speaker 4: Those are high numbers where we're really talking about Breese

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Speaker 4: Hall only, and the only team that makes any sense

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Speaker 4: in that spot is the Buffalo Bills. And frankly, I

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Speaker 4: think they're gonna look at the firepower of the AFC

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Speaker 4: and say, well, Devin Singletary is pretty good. We can

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Speaker 4: probably get a guy of similar talent in the next round.

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Speaker 4: Let's add a dB, let's add a safety, and let's continue.

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Speaker 4: Let's build for the firepower that is the AFC.

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Speaker 2: I think you're crazy, man. No running backs in the

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Speaker 2: first round look.

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Speaker 1: At Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliot, Christian McCaffrey. How great are

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Speaker 1: those teams doing with their first round running back right now?

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Speaker 5: Man?

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Speaker 4: Hey, d Fournette won a Super Bowl right as the

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Speaker 4: fourth overall pick or second was it was the fourth

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Speaker 4: overall pick?

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Speaker 3: Right?

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Speaker 5: Yep?

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Speaker 3: Grand it was for a different team and on a

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Speaker 3: very low contract.

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Speaker 1: But hey, that team's not doing bad right there.

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Speaker 2: Where were they picking?

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, number one in the drafting, and maybe they'll

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Speaker 1: take another running back there for us. Matt, You've got

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Speaker 1: John Metchi over fifty six and a half here. Hit

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Speaker 1: me with the reasoning behind this.

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Speaker 5: So I just want to say quickly, I totally agree

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Speaker 5: with Elliott here. I have the same bet. Not in

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Speaker 5: my top five right now, but you know it could

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Speaker 5: be in the top five. It's it's a very good bet.

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Speaker 5: John Metchi over fifty six and a half. Metchi has

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Speaker 5: a sixty three expected draft position at grinding the Mocks,

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Speaker 5: which is a resource that aggregates a whole bunch of

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Speaker 5: mock draft data. I have Mechi going seventy four to

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Speaker 5: the Falcons in my most recent mock. I think he

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Speaker 5: has like talent if he had stayed healthy, not torn

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Speaker 5: his acl run at them, maybe he could have snucked

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Speaker 5: into the bottom of the first round. But I think

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Speaker 5: there's a sort of disconnect between his talents and then

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Speaker 5: the way that people perceive him, in part because he

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Speaker 5: was never the number one receiver at Alabama. But I

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Speaker 5: think he's going to fall into the third round. I

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Speaker 5: see pretty significant value here on Mechi over sixty over

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Speaker 5: fifty six.

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Speaker 1: And a half, Elliott, what do you think so many

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Speaker 1: receivers in this draft, someone's got to fall.

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Speaker 4: Right, Yeah. I mean, that's the law of numbers, right.

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Speaker 4: It's gonna lead right into my next pick as well.

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Speaker 4: But I think one interesting thing is what happens with

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Speaker 4: George Pickens, because some teams love him and some teams

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Speaker 4: are apparently terrified of his character. I originally got Mechi

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Speaker 4: under sixty four and a half. I think he will.

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Speaker 4: He's kind of in that back half of the second round,

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Speaker 4: maybe in the early third, where I would obviously lose

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Speaker 4: that bet, but I think all value on that number

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Speaker 4: has gone to the point where I might even consider

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Speaker 4: trying to middle it.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's a pretty gaping middle at this point.

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Speaker 1: Worth a shot perhaps, but you're going with Sam Howell

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Speaker 1: to go over he's expected draft position of forty five

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Speaker 1: and a half here not high on the howl train.

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Speaker 4: I heard the nickname he got during the Senior Bowl

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Speaker 4: was Sleepy Sam Howe because he looks like he's constantly

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Speaker 4: asleep and has no energy. And while I can certainly

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Speaker 4: respect that during allergy season, I think it's something where

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Speaker 4: it's you want to understand that you're trying to make

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Speaker 4: a good impression on coaches, and Willis is seemingly coaching

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Speaker 4: up Howe. That's not a great impression. But I think

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Speaker 4: he's gonna be the fifth quarterback off the board. I

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Speaker 4: think Willis will be the first quarterback. Picket or Ritter

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Speaker 4: will probably be the second, third, right, and then you

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Speaker 4: add Corral. That's a lot of this is a bad

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Speaker 4: QB class. Matt just talked about how he doesn't like

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Speaker 4: Pickett going top twelve. A lot of people don't like

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Speaker 4: Willis going top ten. First quarterback off the board might

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Speaker 4: be the Steelers at twenty. There's a lot of run

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Speaker 4: on quarterbacks. I think Freeman, you put out the tweet

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Speaker 4: of and no quarterback goes top ten one. Typically it's

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Speaker 4: it hasn't been more than two quarterbacks in the first round.

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Speaker 4: Don't think there's gonna be a mad dash in the

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Speaker 4: second round. Typically we have this thing the week of

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Speaker 4: the NFL Draft. Oh Man, Bryce Petty is multiple teams

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Speaker 4: have first round grades on Bryce Petty. Oh Bryce Petty

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Speaker 4: just won one hundred and fourth overall in the draft.

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Speaker 4: Like every year, we have guys that are going in

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Speaker 4: the first round and sneaking up, and every year they

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Speaker 4: drop like a brick. So I don't think's going to

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Speaker 4: be any different this year.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, to follow up on what Elliott just said there,

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Speaker 5: totally agree. I've got the same bet. He's a distant

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Speaker 5: fifth in the market to be the number one quarterback.

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Speaker 5: And I've seen him drafted in a round one in

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Speaker 5: just one sharp mock, and like, to be honest, the

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Speaker 5: fact that he even went in the first round and

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Speaker 5: that mock makes me question the sharpness a little bit

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Speaker 5: of the person who did that mock. Anyway, howell he's

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Speaker 5: got almost no hype. You know, he hits the over

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Speaker 5: in my recent mam as well as some other mocks

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Speaker 5: that have round two of mockers who I respect quite

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Speaker 5: a bit. So I think this is a smash, totally

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Speaker 5: love it.

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Speaker 1: You know what, I totally love Matt. The Betting Pros app,

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00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:17,400
Speaker 1: which is a fantastic way for you to find free

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00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:20,399
Speaker 1: picks and sports betting advice. Bettingpros dot com has you

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00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:23,000
Speaker 1: covered with tips from over one hundred and fifty experts

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00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:25,600
Speaker 1: to make it easy for you to cash out. Download

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00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:28,320
Speaker 1: the app to get sports betting alerts. You'll get notified

387
00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:31,439
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00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:35,160
Speaker 1: most accurate experts and vetted systems in play, Betting Pros

389
00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:38,560
Speaker 1: monitors all the major sportsbooks, most accurate experts, and top

390
00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:42,359
Speaker 1: systems to identify the best betting opportunities. So download today

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00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:46,280
Speaker 1: in the Google Play or Apple app stores. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's get back to it here. That was a great segue.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to pat myself on the back for that, Matt.

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Speaker 1: But your next pick here, you've got kway Walker at

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Speaker 1: over thirty eight and a half. You're liking a lot

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Speaker 1: of these overs on most of these. As a matter

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Speaker 1: of fact, every angle pick that you have here is

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Speaker 1: an over on the draft.

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Speaker 5: Yeah. I mean, we know I'm a negative person, right

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Speaker 5: like I'm a wet blanket. That is my brand. So yeah,

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna be pessimistic when it comes to a lot

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Speaker 5: of these guys. I will say, though, you know, I

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Speaker 5: think Elliott has in a lot of his his picks

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Speaker 5: probably that sort of like negative tendency as well. I

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Speaker 5: think you just see the Marcus tend to over inflate

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Speaker 5: the lines for some of these guys. I see that

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Speaker 5: with Kwai Walker here over thirty six and a half

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Speaker 5: plus one hundred at Caesars you off ball linebacker. It's

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Speaker 5: not a priority for most teams, especially the team's picking

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Speaker 5: in the top six of round two and Walker's number

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Speaker 5: forty one in my most recent mock draft forty two

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Speaker 5: point six at Grinding the Mocks in their expected draft

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Speaker 5: position fifty two on Arifassan's consensus big board at the

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Speaker 5: Athletic and fifty six on the NFL Mock Draft Database

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Speaker 5: consensus big Board. Like, I think he is priced very

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Speaker 5: close to his here in terms of where he goes.

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Speaker 5: You know, he's probably going in round two. He deserves

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Speaker 5: to go in round two, but he's priced at the

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Speaker 5: very top of round two, and that just seems far too.

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Speaker 2: High, Elliot. Any thoughts on Walker.

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Speaker 4: Honestly, I think Freeman summed it up perfectly. There's not

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Speaker 4: that much I'm going to add to that one.

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Speaker 1: Now, Matt, let's stick with you here. Your number two

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Speaker 1: pick sky Moore once again in the over over thirty

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Speaker 1: four and a half. A lot of people have been

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Speaker 1: talking a lot about him lately. I've been hearing his

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Speaker 1: name a lot. But you're going over saying he's not

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Speaker 1: going to be in the first round.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't want to say too much about this one.

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Speaker 5: Elliott might want to talk about him a little bit more.

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Speaker 5: That's what we call it teas in the business. But

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Speaker 5: I do love him, but you know, the grinding. The

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Speaker 5: mocks expected draft position for him is fifty one point six.

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Speaker 5: Mock Draft Database consensus big Board ranking for him is

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Speaker 5: forty eight, which actually is right where I have him

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Speaker 5: In the most recent mock I did, which you can

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Speaker 5: find it Fantasy Pro's rounds one through three. I have

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Speaker 5: him at number forty eight going to the Bears. I

439
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:07,560
Speaker 5: think we do see more than five wide receivers going

440
00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:10,200
Speaker 5: round one, and sky Moore could be one of those guys.

441
00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:13,640
Speaker 5: Could be sky Moore, could also be Johan Dotson, could

442
00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,720
Speaker 5: be Christian Watson, could be George Pickens. So we could

443
00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:20,800
Speaker 5: see six seven wide receivers go in Round one without

444
00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:24,080
Speaker 5: one of those guys needing to be sky Moore. And

445
00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:27,960
Speaker 5: for fantasy purposes, assuming he goes within the top one

446
00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:31,080
Speaker 5: hundred picks, I'm going to be pretty bullish on sky Moore.

447
00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:34,480
Speaker 5: But for his draft prop, I am taking the over

448
00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:35,960
Speaker 5: of thirty four and a half.

449
00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:39,120
Speaker 1: Elliott Matt has set up a big teas here. You've

450
00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:41,240
Speaker 1: got to pay it off. You have sky Moore thoughts.

451
00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:44,399
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean literally every reason he just said is

452
00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:48,879
Speaker 4: the fact that grinding Mox has some significantly higher this number.

453
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,280
Speaker 4: That's always a good feeling when you're talking about more

454
00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:55,919
Speaker 4: than ten spots on a thirty four line, like that's

455
00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:58,800
Speaker 4: a wide range in terms of what the market's offering.

456
00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:00,639
Speaker 4: I think this is a suit a where a lot

457
00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:02,320
Speaker 4: of fantasy people come out and say that he's a

458
00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:05,520
Speaker 4: big sleeper, so the market is overreacting to that he's

459
00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:09,320
Speaker 4: wide receiver eight on consensus mock draft boards, Dotson is

460
00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:12,280
Speaker 4: much more likely to go ahead of him. Pickens is

461
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:15,440
Speaker 4: a guy in that area like Freeman mentioned Watson as well,

462
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:17,800
Speaker 4: And then you basically have to get two spots out

463
00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:19,640
Speaker 4: of the first round with the Jaguars, who I don't

464
00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:21,919
Speaker 4: think are going to draft the receiver after, you know,

465
00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:26,080
Speaker 4: giving Christian Kirk DeVante Adams money. I guess Devanta Adams

466
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:27,080
Speaker 4: got Christian Kirk money.

467
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:30,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, but let's face it, Christian Kirk everyone knows premier

468
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:32,159
Speaker 1: receiver in the game today.

469
00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 4: And I don't think that the lines are going to

470
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 4: go in that direction. So I think I think it's

471
00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:41,159
Speaker 4: a fairly safe over. And I understand it's minus one

472
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:43,560
Speaker 4: twenty five, but juice scares me a little bit less

473
00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:47,720
Speaker 4: on draft props than anything else. Obviously it matters, but

474
00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 4: I'm looking more at what the actual numbers are, and

475
00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:54,240
Speaker 4: I think that you know, he's he was plus two

476
00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:56,200
Speaker 4: hundred plus two fifty to go in round one when

477
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:58,040
Speaker 4: he opened it up. Now, those markets are always a

478
00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:01,760
Speaker 4: little deflated because of the fact that they don't have

479
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:04,119
Speaker 4: to offer a yes. But when you open up like

480
00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:05,639
Speaker 4: that and then your number comes out at thirty four

481
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:07,679
Speaker 4: and a half and grinding the MoOx has you, you know,

482
00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 4: ten spots over that, to me, it's like, let's just

483
00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:12,360
Speaker 4: take the over and play the probabilities here.

484
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:16,040
Speaker 1: Now a receiver that you're going on the under and

485
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 1: saying that he's going to be draft a little higher

486
00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:19,840
Speaker 1: that people are expecting. Is your number two pick here

487
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:23,760
Speaker 1: in this draft prop draft, and you're going Drake London

488
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:24,920
Speaker 1: under eleven and a half.

489
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:29,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think this is what's the phrase, stone cold,

490
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:31,680
Speaker 4: lead pipe lock. I don't know if we're allowed to

491
00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:34,880
Speaker 4: say that on this show or not, but I think

492
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:37,600
Speaker 4: his ceiling is four, and I think his floor is eleven.

493
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,240
Speaker 4: He opened up at twelve and a half. He's at

494
00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:41,920
Speaker 4: ten and a half on certain books, eleven and a

495
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 4: half on others. Definitely always want to shop around. I

496
00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:47,360
Speaker 4: mentioned juice before. I'd rather the extra number and pay

497
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:50,160
Speaker 4: a little bit more juice than lose it, especially when

498
00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:52,920
Speaker 4: it's a team like Washington who's very in on a

499
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:58,360
Speaker 4: wide receiver. I think his ceiling is four. I've heard

500
00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:00,600
Speaker 4: the Falcons love him. I actually I came at plus

501
00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:03,240
Speaker 4: nine hundred to be an in Lantath or the eighth

502
00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:07,119
Speaker 4: overall pick. I think the Jets are going to be

503
00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:11,280
Speaker 4: taking a wide receiver at ten or trade for Deebo Samuel.

504
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:14,120
Speaker 4: I think Washington at eleven. And I think the other

505
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 4: big factor of this draft, and one of the things

506
00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:17,880
Speaker 4: that we have not touched on, and you don't want

507
00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:20,960
Speaker 4: to predict trades because predicting trades will get you in trouble,

508
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:24,199
Speaker 4: but understanding that trades do happen, and if there's a

509
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 4: team that's most likely to trade back, I actually think

510
00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 4: it's the Carolina Panthers at six since they don't have

511
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:31,480
Speaker 4: the draft capital, but they have all the needs. And

512
00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:34,159
Speaker 4: one interesting scenario I saw today from Josh Norris, who

513
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:37,560
Speaker 4: was last year's most accurate mock drafter, is the Eagles

514
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 4: trading up using the fifteenth of world pick and their

515
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:43,520
Speaker 4: second pick gets them to six, which would likely get

516
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,760
Speaker 4: them a top overall receiver in this draft class. Plus

517
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:49,720
Speaker 4: Kadarius Tony might get traded, which opens up five and

518
00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 4: seven as well. I think there's a lot of outs.

519
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:54,840
Speaker 4: I think that London, Garrett Wilson, and Jamison Williams will

520
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:55,959
Speaker 4: all go top eleven.

521
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:59,119
Speaker 1: I would absolutely love to see the Eagles take a

522
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:02,280
Speaker 1: third Straighters receiver in the first round.

523
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:05,160
Speaker 3: Well like, in fairness, they took a receiver last year.

524
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:06,960
Speaker 4: In the year before that, they took a punt returner

525
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:09,720
Speaker 4: slash kick returner who also played wide receiver on.

526
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:12,200
Speaker 2: The side, but they had that work out for him.

527
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:17,879
Speaker 5: Yeah, that worked out great. That's accurate. I want to

528
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 5: get Elliott's thoughts on, like more thoughts on Drake London

529
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:24,920
Speaker 5: because I've I've kind of gone back and forth on him.

530
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:27,679
Speaker 5: You know, for a little bit of time, he was,

531
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:31,760
Speaker 5: if not the number one guy in the the odds

532
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:33,919
Speaker 5: to be the number one receiver, he was right up

533
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:38,040
Speaker 5: there with Garrett Wilson in the mock drafts that I

534
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:42,840
Speaker 5: rely on or like consult. He has started to slip

535
00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:44,960
Speaker 5: down the board a little bit, and I think part

536
00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:50,600
Speaker 5: of that is because Kyle Hamilton has fallen out of

537
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:54,280
Speaker 5: the top ten in the vast majority of mock drafts,

538
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 5: and some people are thinking that the Commanders at eleven

539
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:00,760
Speaker 5: could be a landing spot for him him, which means

540
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:04,800
Speaker 5: you start to see this kind of effect of Drake

541
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:08,320
Speaker 5: London falling down the board a little bit. And I

542
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:12,680
Speaker 5: know I have an over position on Kyle Hamilton over

543
00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:15,200
Speaker 5: ten and a half. Elliott, I believe you have an

544
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 5: over positioned like mega over position. I think you have

545
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:20,359
Speaker 5: over of six and a half, eight and a half

546
00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:21,960
Speaker 5: and probably ten and a half.

547
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 3: I have five and a half and six and a

548
00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 3: half is what I have on Kyle Hamilton.

549
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:28,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean you got in very good on that.

550
00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 5: So you you predicted months in advance the fall of

551
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,560
Speaker 5: Kyle Hamilton down the board. The thing is, I am

552
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:40,879
Speaker 5: just thinking Kyle Hamilton eleven could be a landing spot

553
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 5: for him. What are your thoughts on Kyle Hamilton and

554
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:45,199
Speaker 5: then how that might impact Drake London.

555
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:47,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think Hamilton could be in play at eleven.

556
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 4: I think you know, one of the things is that

557
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:53,080
Speaker 4: teams are getting smarter. Boys are taking them along, but

558
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:55,199
Speaker 4: they're getting a little bit smarter here and there. And

559
00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 4: so the media loved Kyle Hamilton, but safeties don't go

560
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:01,360
Speaker 4: top five, period. So when you open up at five

561
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:03,440
Speaker 4: and a half, you're like, what are the real outs here?

562
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 4: Potentially the Texans or the Lions. But you talk about

563
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:09,119
Speaker 4: taking a a non premium position is one of the

564
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:11,280
Speaker 4: two worst teams in the NFL. That seems like a mistake.

565
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:13,320
Speaker 4: And so he just starts to continue to fall down

566
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:15,359
Speaker 4: the board and slide down the board. Then he runs

567
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 4: a four to seven of his pro day. That's not great.

568
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:21,120
Speaker 4: I'm not mid team forty matters, but when you're gonna

569
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:23,679
Speaker 4: tell me he's a super rangey safety, and then he

570
00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:27,879
Speaker 4: runs slow, that's not great. And then you know, you

571
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:32,480
Speaker 4: ask yourself. Yeah, I think some teams are definitely going

572
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 4: to love him. I think the media has always been

573
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 4: higher on him than NFL teams are. But I think

574
00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 4: it comes down to me of teams have shown that

575
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:42,879
Speaker 4: they value premium positions, and I think one thing that

576
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:47,240
Speaker 4: really helps Drake London and all rookie wide receivers move

577
00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:49,160
Speaker 4: up the board, which of course hurts the Scott More

578
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:50,680
Speaker 4: argument a little bit, but still he's going to be

579
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:52,320
Speaker 4: wide receiver seven or eight off the board and go

580
00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 4: pick thirty five and we win.

581
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 3: So work good.

582
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 4: But these massive contracts and these guys getting traded and

583
00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:02,719
Speaker 4: getting paid twenty five million dollars just greatly. You know,

584
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:06,119
Speaker 4: if the rookie receiver contract has shot up in value,

585
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:08,159
Speaker 4: it is just night and day from what it was

586
00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:10,720
Speaker 4: even this time last year. Because these guys are now

587
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 4: getting twenty five million dollars. And if you're not gonna

588
00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 4: get a twenty five million dollars, someone else is, so

589
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:21,680
Speaker 4: we don't even we assume mclaurin's gonna get a contract

590
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:23,960
Speaker 4: extension too. But with all that, I think that even

591
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 4: adds more value or more need for Washington to get

592
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:28,640
Speaker 4: a wide receiver because.

593
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:29,600
Speaker 3: They don't have him.

594
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 4: That's the worst receiving core in the NFL, hands down,

595
00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:36,640
Speaker 4: So that would be my counter argument. I think Hamilton

596
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:38,480
Speaker 4: could go eleven, though I think that's probably I mean,

597
00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 4: right now he's over ten and a half at minus

598
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 4: one seventy five, and he started to move to over

599
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 4: eleven and a half on certain books. I think if

600
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 4: I had to guess his landing spot right now, I

601
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 4: think he's in play at eleven. I wouldn't be shocked

602
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 4: if he ends up falling Like in the eighteen to

603
00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:59,480
Speaker 4: twenty two range I missed. I missed it because it

604
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 4: Jackxton Hill is shooting up boards, but Hamilton opened up

605
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:08,160
Speaker 4: at plus like forty to one or fifty to one

606
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:11,000
Speaker 4: to be the second safety. Would I would have taken

607
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 4: that just from a you start getting the eighteen range,

608
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:15,959
Speaker 4: guys never thought that Hamilton could be there, and then

609
00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:16,920
Speaker 4: weird things happened.

610
00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:21,439
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's a flashback of Trevon Morigg last year. You know,

611
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:25,440
Speaker 5: like safety is a weird position where it's very scheme dependent,

612
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:30,880
Speaker 5: and you know, the draft becomes much more unreliable outside

613
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:33,480
Speaker 5: of the top ten the top fifteen, and so once

614
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:35,720
Speaker 5: a guy falls past that point, I don't want to

615
00:28:35,760 --> 00:28:39,000
Speaker 5: say almost anything can happen, but you are open to

616
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:42,360
Speaker 5: much more randomness in the process. So yeah, it would

617
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 5: not be a surprise if somehow Daxon Hill actually did

618
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 5: go off the board. Is the number one the number

619
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:52,400
Speaker 5: one safety? One thing I will say about Drake London

620
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:55,680
Speaker 5: I haven't. This is one of the few over unders

621
00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:59,080
Speaker 5: for draft position that I haven't really taken a side

622
00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:02,960
Speaker 5: on yet. I could also see o Lave just you know,

623
00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 5: because of teams how it is that they view these positions,

624
00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 5: maybe Olave jumping over him in a team's rankings and

625
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:12,880
Speaker 5: maybe that pushing Drake London down the board a little bit.

626
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:16,480
Speaker 5: But I like I am with Elliott in the enthusiasm

627
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:19,640
Speaker 5: for Drake London, like I think he he should be

628
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 5: pretty cleanly a top fifteen pick, and if he goes

629
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 5: in the top ten, it wouldn't be surprising.

630
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 1: And Matt another interesting thing to note on that point

631
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:31,720
Speaker 1: of the potential of Daxton Hill, maybe leap frogging Hamilton.

632
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,680
Speaker 1: Hamilton minus a thousand at points bet to be the

633
00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:39,480
Speaker 1: first safety taken Daxton Hill plus seven fifty right now,

634
00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 1: Can I interest you in that?

635
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:45,480
Speaker 5: Yes, I would be interested in that. Yeah, and like

636
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:47,960
Speaker 5: I'm saying that as someone who doesn't bet a lot

637
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:50,640
Speaker 5: of long shots, in part because when I did my

638
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 5: analysis last year, I realized I wasn't very good at

639
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 5: long shots, so I just kind of have removed those

640
00:29:57,560 --> 00:29:58,880
Speaker 5: mainly from my card this year.

641
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 2: The thing with long shot is you only need one

642
00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 2: to hit. Though.

643
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, well I still didn't do it very much last year.

644
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 1: All right, guys, we have one pick from each of

645
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 1: you left to give here your top draft play, and

646
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:14,040
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647
00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:17,720
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657
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 1: If you pick correctly, you can win anywhere from two

658
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:46,960
Speaker 1: times to twenty times the money you put in the

659
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:49,479
Speaker 1: main reason I'm excited about it though, because it's the

660
00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:51,920
Speaker 1: only app where I can join my buddies contests and

661
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 1: play together. It's got a built in group chat where

662
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 1: I can see and copy my friend's picks with the

663
00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 1: tap of a button, talk some trash, and have some

664
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 1: fun as we write it out together. So stop what

665
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:03,920
Speaker 1: you're doing and download Sleeper now to play their new

666
00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 1: over undergame. Have fun with your friends and make some money,

667
00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 1: and make sure to use the promo code Betting Pros

668
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:11,960
Speaker 1: all one word and Sleeper will match your deposit up

669
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 1: to one hundred dollars. Again, download Sleeper and use the

670
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 1: promo code Betting Pros when you deposit and make your

671
00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:21,719
Speaker 1: first pick. Might I suggest that pick being my favorite

672
00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:24,040
Speaker 1: pick of the day to day. Jah Moran under twenty

673
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 1: six points On Wednesday Night against the timber Wolves. Josh

674
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 1: scored thirty two points in Game one of this playoffs series.

675
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 1: Hasn't scored above twenty three in a game since then.

676
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 1: Terms and conditions apply see Sleepers Terms of use for details.

677
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:39,440
Speaker 1: All right, guys, here we go. One more pick from

678
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:42,920
Speaker 1: each of you. Here your favorite bet of the twenty

679
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 1: twenty two NFL draft and Elliott starting off with you

680
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 1: because your favorite pick is skymore over thirty four and

681
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:52,880
Speaker 1: a half in the draft position.

682
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 2: So we've already talked about that just a little bit.

683
00:31:57,040 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 2: Is it still your favorite pick?

684
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:01,600
Speaker 4: It's still my favorite pick. But you know, I'm not

685
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 4: that you gotta go out with a bang, not a fizzle.

686
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 4: So we're gonna throw a couple of things out there.

687
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 4: So I think one thing that's really interesting is on

688
00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 4: FanDuel you can actually parlay top thirty two guys. And

689
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:16,600
Speaker 4: so if you want to take mcduffel or McDuffie sorry

690
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 4: and Penning to go both go in the first round.

691
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:19,480
Speaker 3: That's only minus two to seventy.

692
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:21,440
Speaker 4: Those guys are both juiced to the under at sixteen

693
00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:22,720
Speaker 4: and a half and seventeen and a half.

694
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 3: It feels like great odds.

695
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 4: If you want to be a juice boy, you can

696
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:31,320
Speaker 4: take Trayvon Walker to be the first Georgia player drafter

697
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 4: that minus one thousand right now, that's a stone cold

698
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 4: lead pipe block. Jordan Davis is not going top three.

699
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 4: Trayvon Walker is. But in terms of a real bet,

700
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:43,080
Speaker 4: I mentioned that I don't like running backs to go

701
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:47,040
Speaker 4: early in this draft. Draftings today just put up matchups

702
00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:52,120
Speaker 4: and the Penn State defensive end. This is how you

703
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:55,000
Speaker 4: know I like you guys, because I'm gonna try to

704
00:32:55,040 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 4: pronounce his name, but eb kitty, right, I believe that's

705
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:06,239
Speaker 4: Arnold eb kitty, eb kitty. There we go, a very

706
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:08,120
Speaker 4: easy name to pronounce. Again, I know how to bet

707
00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 4: on these guys don't necessarily know how to pronounce their names.

708
00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:12,960
Speaker 1: Elliott, I thought that you were trying to give his

709
00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:15,719
Speaker 1: first name, And when Matt came out with Arnold, I

710
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 1: was like, the hell you getting a kitty out of it.

711
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:24,440
Speaker 4: I like him to go before Brieste fall, which is

712
00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:27,120
Speaker 4: minus one forty. His over under is thirty one and

713
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 4: a half. He's frequently mocked in the first round is

714
00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:33,239
Speaker 4: right around that that frenge Aia Brice fall is at

715
00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:34,960
Speaker 4: thirty nine and a half forty and a half. So

716
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:38,240
Speaker 4: those odds to me should be closer to minus one

717
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:41,120
Speaker 4: eighty minus two hundred than minus one forty. And those

718
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:43,040
Speaker 4: matchups are something that I want to pay attention to,

719
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:46,440
Speaker 4: especially is to get released. It's a great way where

720
00:33:46,440 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 4: if you feel like you missed out on a guy

721
00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:51,160
Speaker 4: that you like over or under, an opportunity to bet

722
00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 4: some of those matchups, so that that's a play that

723
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:55,040
Speaker 4: stood out to me today that I really like.

724
00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 1: There you have it, Matt, take us home here. What

725
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 1: is your favorite bet of this draft class?

726
00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 5: Just want to say quickly, I love that bet from Elliott.

727
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:08,560
Speaker 5: Totally agree with that and would bet that myself. My

728
00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:13,680
Speaker 5: top bet for this draft class Tyler Linderbaum over twenty

729
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:15,799
Speaker 5: seven and a half. You can get this draft Kings

730
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:19,560
Speaker 5: minus one oh five. Linderbaum is one of the best

731
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:22,239
Speaker 5: players in this class. I think just sort of you know,

732
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:27,360
Speaker 5: raw talent top five, top ten, but interior interior alignment

733
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:31,439
Speaker 5: are devalued in today's game, and there are a few

734
00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:34,920
Speaker 5: teams that actually need center in the top twenty seven, Like,

735
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 5: it's just I don't think it's very likely to happen.

736
00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 5: I think he might fall out of round one and

737
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:44,680
Speaker 5: within the top thirty two. The Bengals at number thirty

738
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:48,359
Speaker 5: one are his most popular landing spot. And I'll just say,

739
00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 5: you know, in the index of sharp mocks that I use,

740
00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 5: he's gone over twenty seven and a half and eighty

741
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 5: eight percent of them. This number should be I don't know,

742
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:01,200
Speaker 5: Like if we were setting this, thirty two and a

743
00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:03,480
Speaker 5: half would be the number where it should be, or

744
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:06,160
Speaker 5: if you're looking at twenty seven and a half, this

745
00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:09,160
Speaker 5: minus one of five number should really be like minus

746
00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:12,399
Speaker 5: two hundred. So I think there's a lot about you here.

747
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:14,839
Speaker 4: Niksha came out today and said that they expect him

748
00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:15,839
Speaker 4: to fall out in the first round.

749
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:16,680
Speaker 5: Wow.

750
00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't.

751
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:20,360
Speaker 1: I can't seem to imagine why the Bengals would be

752
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:24,240
Speaker 1: interested in interior alignment. I don't know, not really thinking

753
00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 1: of a need there now, guys, we obviously have so

754
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:33,160
Speaker 1: many more picks that we could talk about here, but

755
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:35,520
Speaker 1: the problem is we'd be talking about them up until

756
00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 1: next year's draft with the amount that you guys have

757
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 1: to bet on in this spot. But before I let

758
00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:42,480
Speaker 1: you go here, I want to ask you real quick.

759
00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:43,919
Speaker 2: You talked about.

760
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:46,280
Speaker 1: Some of the tools and resources that you've been using

761
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:48,160
Speaker 1: to make some of your decisions, some of the sharp

762
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:50,759
Speaker 1: drafts that you've been looking at here. What are some

763
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 1: of the places that you are going, like grinding the

764
00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:56,760
Speaker 1: mocks for example, that you're finding all of this information

765
00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:59,120
Speaker 1: that you're using to base your Pixlet maybe some of

766
00:35:59,160 --> 00:36:02,360
Speaker 1: our listeners here go and use that to their advantage

767
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:03,960
Speaker 1: as well.

768
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I use grinding the mocks. I look at

769
00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:13,040
Speaker 5: the NFL mock draft database. They have a good consensus

770
00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:15,120
Speaker 5: big board there and they aggregate a lot of mock

771
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 5: draft data there. The Athletic uh, if you subscribe to that,

772
00:36:21,080 --> 00:36:24,239
Speaker 5: Arifasan has a big board there where he aggregates a

773
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 5: lot of information. And you know, Dane Brugler is a

774
00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:30,200
Speaker 5: good mock drafter and has very good write ups for

775
00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:31,960
Speaker 5: you know, hundreds of prospects.

776
00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:32,720
Speaker 3: Uh.

777
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:35,799
Speaker 5: And then I'll just say at Betting Pros, uh, you know,

778
00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:38,160
Speaker 5: we pull in mock draft data there. We have a

779
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:40,800
Speaker 5: consensus mock draft. I post my mocks there.

780
00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 3: Uh.

781
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:44,960
Speaker 5: And we also have a mock draft contest, which I

782
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:48,440
Speaker 5: think is the most sophisticated of the mock draft contest

783
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:51,920
Speaker 5: uh in the industry. So I would say the other

784
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:54,280
Speaker 5: places you could check out, but also check out Betting

785
00:36:54,280 --> 00:36:57,879
Speaker 5: Pros and I also have uh, well, Fantasy Pros mock

786
00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:01,640
Speaker 5: draft there at Betting Pros. My entire betting card is there,

787
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:02,919
Speaker 5: so you can check it out there.

788
00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:03,839
Speaker 2: That is right.

789
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:06,880
Speaker 1: And guys like Matt said his entire betting card is

790
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:08,560
Speaker 1: on the Betting Pros picktracker.

791
00:37:08,800 --> 00:37:10,879
Speaker 2: If you want to track all your wagers in one place.

792
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 1: Check out the Betting Pros Picktracker at Bettingpros dot com

793
00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:17,440
Speaker 1: slash picktracking. It syncs up with your sports books to

794
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:19,839
Speaker 1: tally which picks hit, which miss and gives you a

795
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:22,160
Speaker 1: live look at what the public is doing, so you

796
00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:24,719
Speaker 1: can use real time tracking to determine which place to

797
00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:27,640
Speaker 1: make and which ones to fade, get on the leaderboard

798
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:29,799
Speaker 1: and quickly become a sharp by using free advice we

799
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:33,000
Speaker 1: have to offer at Bettingpros dot com slash pick Tracking,

800
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:37,759
Speaker 1: and Matt that that sportsbook saying thing is the coolest thing.

801
00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:41,200
Speaker 1: No more manually entering picks. It is just done automatically

802
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 1: for you. It could not be more convenient.

803
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's totally great. People should try a number of

804
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:49,840
Speaker 5: sports books where you can do it.

805
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:52,879
Speaker 1: So yep, Elliott, how about you, what's one hot tip

806
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 1: for people still looking to make some draft bets.

807
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:57,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, I would say aggregate data is way more valuable

808
00:37:57,480 --> 00:38:01,000
Speaker 4: than any one individual's mock draft. And you know, there's

809
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 4: like five or six guys whose mock drafts that I

810
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:05,439
Speaker 4: pay attention to, But at the end of the day,

811
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:07,919
Speaker 4: like one pick really determines how the next one goes.

812
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:11,480
Speaker 4: So aggregate data and Freeman mentioned the three best places

813
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:14,600
Speaker 4: to do with the Athletic Consensus big Board, though I

814
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:17,840
Speaker 4: will say NFL mock Draft database has a good consensus

815
00:38:17,840 --> 00:38:19,759
Speaker 4: big board, and you can look at positions as well,

816
00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:22,279
Speaker 4: and you can click on individual teams and see the

817
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:25,600
Speaker 4: three most.

818
00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:26,560
Speaker 3: Most commonly mock draft players.

819
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:28,279
Speaker 4: One of things you want to pay attention to is

820
00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:32,239
Speaker 4: some of those names are from February, not necessarily now,

821
00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 4: so definitely more recent information grinding the mocks and just

822
00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:40,879
Speaker 4: you know, the one person I really suggest following during

823
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:43,200
Speaker 4: an NFL draft season is Anthony and Miko anything that

824
00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:46,000
Speaker 4: guy tweets out on the NFL Draft That dude grinds

825
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:49,200
Speaker 4: the NFL draft like no one I've ever seen before.

826
00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:52,840
Speaker 4: And frankly, I feel like I grind them mock drafts

827
00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 4: and the NFL draft stuff unlike few others. But really

828
00:38:57,080 --> 00:39:01,040
Speaker 4: it's about finding aggregative information and you know, listening to people.

829
00:39:01,080 --> 00:39:03,560
Speaker 4: And I think one thing and it doesn't necessarily help

830
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 4: this year, but something to pay and pay attention to

831
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:10,200
Speaker 4: in the future. I understand when people like big names

832
00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 4: insiders tweet stuff out who's moving the market and who's not,

833
00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:16,359
Speaker 4: they'll tell you a lot about whose information is very

834
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 4: valuable for betting and who is kind of trying to

835
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:19,839
Speaker 4: make more entertaining statements.

836
00:39:20,239 --> 00:39:23,320
Speaker 1: And we actually talked about that on the last episode

837
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:26,799
Speaker 1: of the Betting Pros podcast with Jason Weingarten. It is

838
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:29,640
Speaker 1: very much you can tell based on the number moving

839
00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:33,440
Speaker 1: which people are the ones whose opinions the book respects

840
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:35,920
Speaker 1: and which people not so much, and that is a

841
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:38,239
Speaker 1: very big part of trying to become an informed better

842
00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:40,200
Speaker 1: So a great way to plug that last show. You

843
00:39:40,239 --> 00:39:42,960
Speaker 1: should really go check it out if you haven't already.

844
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:45,439
Speaker 1: And Elliott, where can people find all the great work

845
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:46,839
Speaker 1: that you're putting out each and every day.

846
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 4: You can follow me on Twitter at Elliott Chris one

847
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:52,520
Speaker 4: L one T no h and Chris, good luck spelling

848
00:39:52,520 --> 00:39:55,040
Speaker 4: that right for the first time. If you do congratulations,

849
00:39:55,120 --> 00:39:56,759
Speaker 4: you win a prize of being the first person to

850
00:39:56,800 --> 00:40:01,040
Speaker 4: ever do it. I'm this CEO of Fantasy Life and

851
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:04,360
Speaker 4: we're we're doing a ton of awesome stuff, you know,

852
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:07,840
Speaker 4: obviously with Matthew Berry. It's a newsletter in your inbox

853
00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:11,640
Speaker 4: every morning. Go to fantasylife dot com subscribe to the newsletter.

854
00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:13,719
Speaker 4: Everything is one hundred percent free and there's gonna be

855
00:40:13,760 --> 00:40:15,719
Speaker 4: a lot of amazing stuff coming this July that people

856
00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:16,279
Speaker 4: are gonna love.

857
00:40:17,120 --> 00:40:18,279
Speaker 2: And Matt how about you.

858
00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:22,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, you can follow me on Twitter at Matt fie Oracle.

859
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:24,680
Speaker 5: I just want to say, you know, awesome for Elliott

860
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:28,440
Speaker 5: to have the CEO position, you know, and obviously a

861
00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 5: ton of respects for Matthew Berry as well. And one

862
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:35,560
Speaker 5: thing also, I'm just thinking about this because Elliott mentioned

863
00:40:36,120 --> 00:40:38,600
Speaker 5: I think you know before the show, at the very

864
00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:42,160
Speaker 5: beginning of the show, that you know, Draft Day or

865
00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:45,360
Speaker 5: like this week is a hard week to get in

866
00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:47,239
Speaker 5: the market, even though it's you know, sort of a

867
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 5: popular week for people betting. I will say that I

868
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:54,520
Speaker 5: do think on Draft Day, although it sounds counterintuitive, that

869
00:40:54,680 --> 00:40:57,319
Speaker 5: is the one day each year that all of the

870
00:40:57,440 --> 00:41:02,320
Speaker 5: sharp mockers have an updated mind. And so if you actually,

871
00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:04,799
Speaker 5: you know, do look through some of their mocks and

872
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 5: I will be aggregating all of that information. I think

873
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:12,200
Speaker 5: you actually can that one day because you've got the

874
00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:15,719
Speaker 5: best people in the world that mocks all having fresh information.

875
00:41:15,920 --> 00:41:19,680
Speaker 5: You can use their information to that on not necessarily

876
00:41:19,719 --> 00:41:21,719
Speaker 5: who's going to go number one, number two, because those

877
00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:25,160
Speaker 5: markets at that point might not offer much value, but

878
00:41:25,239 --> 00:41:27,680
Speaker 5: you could have a lot of value in the over

879
00:41:27,840 --> 00:41:31,720
Speaker 5: unders for draft position prompts, and so that is something

880
00:41:31,760 --> 00:41:35,440
Speaker 5: to be aware of and I will be hitting those

881
00:41:36,320 --> 00:41:39,239
Speaker 5: probably pretty heavily on Thursday afternoon.

882
00:41:39,480 --> 00:41:41,759
Speaker 1: A quick word of warning on that, however, for some

883
00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 1: better is if there's a book that you particularly want

884
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:47,040
Speaker 1: to get any action with, make sure that their props

885
00:41:47,040 --> 00:41:49,080
Speaker 1: are still going to be on the board. Some places

886
00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:51,799
Speaker 1: do take all of their draft stuff down the night

887
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:53,320
Speaker 1: before the draft, so watch.

888
00:41:53,080 --> 00:41:53,480
Speaker 2: Out for that.

889
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:55,760
Speaker 5: Yeah, good, good advice there.

890
00:41:55,800 --> 00:41:57,439
Speaker 2: All right, guys, Well, that is our show.

891
00:41:57,480 --> 00:41:59,359
Speaker 1: Thank you so much for tuning in today, guys, thank

892
00:41:59,400 --> 00:42:01,879
Speaker 1: you so much for being with me here to get

893
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:04,840
Speaker 1: out some of your favorite picks and plays, and everyone

894
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:07,040
Speaker 1: watching don't forget to like, subscribe and share, and of

895
00:42:07,040 --> 00:42:08,959
Speaker 1: course you can follow me on Twitter.

896
00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:10,160
Speaker 2: At TV at work.

897
00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:12,919
Speaker 1: Best of luck to all of you on your draft

898
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:15,440
Speaker 1: day bets and your teams picks of course, and I

899
00:42:15,440 --> 00:42:17,160
Speaker 1: will see you guys again next week as we get

900
00:42:17,200 --> 00:42:19,480
Speaker 1: ready to talk about some NHL playoffs