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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: PODA All Right, here we go fifteen twenty, twenty five,

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Speaker 2: thirty thirty five, forty forty five, fifty and.

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Speaker 1: The Kicks Block the College Football World.

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Speaker 2: Stunners, Oh my goodness, please stumble and football the latter.

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Speaker 1: Turn a tr on the epsode j lad a table

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Speaker 1: off the field the night, By God, it's not the

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Speaker 1: size of the dog in the fight, it's the size.

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Speaker 2: Of the fight in all.

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Speaker 1: What's up the generation? Welcome to the Big Nuts on

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Speaker 1: Campus Podcast presented by DraftKings. This is the college football

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Speaker 1: conference championship that in preview I'm stuck in joining me

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Speaker 1: as always my fellow BBS. He co hosts Colin Wilson

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Speaker 1: before we get to all nine conference championship games. Quick

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Speaker 1: plugs here. If you use Twitter, make sure you check

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Speaker 1: anyone on parlays or player props. Just follow that Playbook

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Speaker 1: on Twitter for more info. We'll also have a quick

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Speaker 1: slip link in the video and podcast description where you

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Speaker 1: can find and tell some of the bets we discussed

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Speaker 1: in today's episode, or you can visit Actionnework dot Com,

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Speaker 1: slash bet Now and quick self promotion on the new

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Speaker 1: co host the Favorite podcast, which is returned with a

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Speaker 1: new lineup episodes Tuesdays, Thursdays, Sundays with Myself, Kendri Middleton

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Speaker 1: centered around the NFL. Check it out wherever you get

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Speaker 1: your podcasts. Today talked about our progression and drinks, So

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Speaker 1: which what was our drink of choice at certain stages

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Speaker 1: of our life? And our mount rushmore of TV shows

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Speaker 1: Before we really get started, I'll throw to myself for

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Speaker 1: quick word from DraftKings? Have you got some on campus? Podcast?

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Speaker 1: The crown is yours, Coln. Before we get to the games,

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Speaker 1: your mount rushmore TV shows, Mine was The Wire, Breaking Bad,

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Speaker 1: Sopranos and Justified.

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Speaker 2: I knew you were gonna have the wire in there

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Speaker 2: because wire shirt actually right now? Oh yeah yeah, Because

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Speaker 2: and I first met You're O god, I think I

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Speaker 2: was a baby. I definitely did have as much gray

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Speaker 2: you were watching The Wire and Breaking Bad was there.

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Speaker 2: Game of Thrones was there at the top, but then

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Speaker 2: Game of Thrones severely fell off because the books ended.

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Speaker 2: I had lost kind of up there. But let me

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Speaker 2: reinforce what it is now. And Or is the greatest

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Speaker 2: thing I've ever seen. It is the greatest. I don't

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Speaker 2: care if you like Star Wars or if you don't.

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Speaker 2: There has never been anything better that I've seen with

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Speaker 2: my eyes than and Or, especially with Luvin's entire explanation

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Speaker 2: about what he sacrificed for the rebellion to be have birthed.

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Speaker 2: I'm sorry if you're a fan of this out there.

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Speaker 2: If you're into Star Wars, you're gonna say Collins exactly right.

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Speaker 2: If you're not a fan of this and you have

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Speaker 2: some time over Christmas, check out and or it's it's

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Speaker 2: unbelievable how it fits into the Star Wars universe.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I never got into start. I'm not a sci

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Speaker 1: fi Star Wars star Trek all that kind of guy.

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Speaker 1: So I don't know. If that's not my wife would

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Speaker 1: love it.

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Speaker 2: But Drea, good choice, right, I mean you and I

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Speaker 2: have to say, right, Tito's except I go with like

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Speaker 2: a diet seven. I think you're are you a club soda?

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Speaker 1: Like, yeah, medos double Tito soda line. Now, I wasn't

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Speaker 1: yellow red Bull. Tito's was a red Bull, regular red Bull.

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Speaker 1: Before that it was Gin and Tonic yep.

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Speaker 2: But first time in Vegas you brought all your gen

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Speaker 2: up to the up to the room or Blagio or Cosmo,

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Speaker 2: I can't remember what. You came in with, like three

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Speaker 2: sacks of gen and like we need red bulls.

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Speaker 1: I was like, yes we do, yeah, Ada Hendrick's red

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Speaker 1: Bull phase Gin red Bull. It's not as bad as

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Speaker 1: you might think. All right, let's get to the games.

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Speaker 1: Got nine to get to. If you haven't checked out

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Speaker 1: the Group of Five guys, make sure you check that

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Speaker 1: episode out. It's already out. They break down all of

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Speaker 1: the Group of five conference championships. The four on Friday

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Speaker 1: are played on campus, the five on Saturday are all

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Speaker 1: neutral site games. Also, our last recap episode of the

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Speaker 1: year is on Sunday, nine to five nine Bad Beat.

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Speaker 1: Last time to use the voicemail. We will record at

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Speaker 1: noon on Sunday live reaction to the college football playoff

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Speaker 1: bracket reveal. There's a lot that can still happen. Number one,

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Speaker 1: if Duke loses, okay, does that open the door for

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Speaker 1: JMU or do they say, oh, well, now Duke has

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Speaker 1: another good win. We're gonna put Duke in over JMU.

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Speaker 1: Stop the winner of North Texas Tulame we know is

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Speaker 1: getting in. If BYU wins, therein does Notre Dame get booted?

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Speaker 1: If BYU loses and Miami's next to Notre Dame and

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Speaker 1: say Duke wins, does the committee say hey, we'll do

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Speaker 1: you a favor and put Miami in to the ACC

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Speaker 1: We know there's politics, and then you have how everything's

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Speaker 1: going to break with seeding. There's a chance that getting

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Speaker 1: the three seed is better than the one seed. I

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Speaker 1: mean if with the bracket last week, that would have

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Speaker 1: been the case because you get ole messed without a

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Speaker 1: coach or the group of five playoff and you don't

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Speaker 1: have to play a Notre Dame in Alabama as the

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Speaker 1: one or the two lots and lots to get to

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Speaker 1: what do you think ends up happening? So do you

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Speaker 1: think if Duke wins, they're on.

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Speaker 2: I think they're out, no matter what I mean, they

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Speaker 2: have a second Listen, I'm not on the committee. It's

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Speaker 2: time more people like you and me were on the committee.

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Speaker 2: Duquez a second order win total of five point eight. Okay,

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Speaker 2: this isn't supposed to even be a Bowl team by

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Speaker 2: second order win total. Okay, the ACC is a farce.

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Speaker 2: Everybody is winning games in less than fifty percent postgame

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Speaker 2: win expectancy. Like the entire conference can't get out of

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Speaker 2: its own way. You can't even amend the rules to

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Speaker 2: where you just take the highest ranked collegetball playoff teams

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Speaker 2: and put them in your conference championship like the American does,

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Speaker 2: like other conferences do. You can't even figure that out

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Speaker 2: to solve this by getting Miami in and compete to

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Speaker 2: be in the championship, compete to be in the playoff.

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Speaker 2: I what do I think is gonna happen? We'll talk

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Speaker 2: about this game, but I think there's gonna be shady

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Speaker 2: this sec reffing to make sure Alabama doesn't lose. They

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Speaker 2: don't want Alabama to get popped out. It was funny

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Speaker 2: that they slid behind Notre Dame. But yes, I think

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Speaker 2: it's coming.

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Speaker 1: What's about shady or it's the acc re refs? You

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Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna be biased to Virginia? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: Completely, But what do you think like is Alabama? Alabama

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Speaker 2: got slipped above Notre Dame. They took Notre Dame back

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Speaker 2: for no reason. They didn't. They should have said, well

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Speaker 2: they didn't cover Stanford, you gave up twenty to zero.

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Speaker 2: I don't know why they didn't. Committee didn't just come

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Speaker 2: out and say that. I don't know why we don't

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Speaker 2: have smarter people up there. They can get out there

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Speaker 2: and actually use words as far as game script, box scores,

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Speaker 2: analytics to say this is why I took Notre Dame out.

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Speaker 2: They didn't cover against Stanford. They've been beating a bunch

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Speaker 2: of cupcakes since their first two games of the season,

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Speaker 2: like this whole like we don't consider the head heads

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Speaker 2: until they're next to each other in the ring. It's

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Speaker 2: one of the most poorly said things, and it's mine.

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Speaker 1: It's different every week al and Alabama got out played

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Speaker 1: by Auburn out a forty five percent post team win

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Speaker 1: expectancye Yes, they just make it up as they go.

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Speaker 1: They'd be better off just not releasing any rankings until

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Speaker 1: the final one to be.

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Speaker 2: Two G five teams in and listen, I don't know

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Speaker 2: we ruin the bracket if if Miami and Texas are out,

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Speaker 2: I don't think that should be in. But if Miami

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Speaker 2: and Texas are out at two G fives are in

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Speaker 2: or Duke which in my opinion, I tweeted this out like,

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Speaker 2: do would be an underdog from like one to eight

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Speaker 2: points versus all these G five contenders North Texas.

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Speaker 1: To you will be an underdog verse seven other ACC teams.

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Speaker 2: Jam you would destroy them, Chesney would destroy.

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Speaker 1: I have Jamie the small favorite ever do Yeah, so

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Speaker 1: very interesting. If you're a Notre Dame fan, you also

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Speaker 1: you also want to root for Boise State because you

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Speaker 1: played Boise. So you know, maybe it matters. It's a

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Speaker 1: small day, but but you could be like, hey, one

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Speaker 1: of our wins over the Mountain West cham maybe the

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Speaker 1: committee says that, but we will react live to the

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Speaker 1: playoff bracket reveal. Listen to your voicemails one last time.

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Speaker 1: Nine to five non bavvpcap the weekend, and then we

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Speaker 1: will get bowls. We already have some cal Hawaii and

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Speaker 1: the LII Bowl, Missouri State, Arkansas State in the Xbox Bowl,

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Speaker 1: a new bowl. That's one that's going to be one

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Speaker 1: of the worst goals. I assume Arkansas State will win

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Speaker 1: by one, like they do every every year they.

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Speaker 2: Win an I already started my Bowl confidence preview. There's

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Speaker 2: an Xbox Bowl.

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Speaker 1: It's a new bowl. Yeah, oh man, replace the Bahamas Bowl.

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Speaker 2: Oh see, I thought it was Bahamas Bowl. Okay, so

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Speaker 2: Bahamas Bowls gone as Xbox Bowls.

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Speaker 1: The Xbox Bowl in Frisco, Texas, and it's between Missouri

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Speaker 1: State and Arkansas State. I think we're getting Texas Michigan.

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Speaker 1: It looks like I will have my opt out tracker

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Speaker 1: and transfer portal tracker. It's a lot of work. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you check it out on Actionork dot Com Action

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Speaker 1: over cap and then we will have our bowl previews.

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Speaker 1: We will have be covered for every single bowl game.

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Speaker 1: We'll probably have like seven or eight previews, including previews

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Speaker 1: for the college football semi finals, quarterfinals, National Championship, and

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Speaker 1: cover every single bowl game. So make sure you have

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Speaker 1: those notifications on and you are tuned in. We will

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Speaker 1: have you covered. One of my favorite times of the year.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's get to all nine conference championship games.

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Speaker 1: We'll go in chronological order. We'll start on Friday night.

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Speaker 1: Kennesau State Jacksonville State Conference USA Championship states a two

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Speaker 1: and a half point favorite total sixty sixty and a

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Speaker 1: half depending on where you look, sixty and a half

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Speaker 1: at DraftKings. Interesting note here, we have a bunch of rematches,

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Speaker 1: and historically, if you look at rematches and conference championships

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Speaker 1: that happened in the regular season, the teams that are

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Speaker 1: out for revenge have gone twenty nine and twenty nine

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Speaker 1: against the spread, so there's really no angle there. But

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Speaker 1: thirty nine of the fifty eight teams out for revenge,

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Speaker 1: about sixty seven percent, did improve their scoring margin from

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Speaker 1: the first loss by about nine points per game. So

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Speaker 1: I do think that the team that lost is probably

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Speaker 1: more likely to make adjustments in the second matchup. But

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Speaker 1: I don't think, you know, I think the market by

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Speaker 1: now you're not going to find huge edges. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is a conference matchup on conference championship weekend. We

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Speaker 1: have a full body of work for all these teams.

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Speaker 1: There are some interesting line that so this one isn't

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Speaker 1: that agreeious. Knnessall State was a three and a half

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Speaker 1: point favorite at Jacksonville State earlier this season. They lost

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Speaker 1: by nine, but I'd argue they probably should have won

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Speaker 1: the game. They were done in by turnovers.

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Speaker 2: In that game.

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Speaker 1: They did whatever they wanted on offense in the game.

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Speaker 1: Kennsall State outgame Jacksonville State five seventy nine to four

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Speaker 1: fifty one. They just had four turnovers. Jacksonville State didn't

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Speaker 1: have any, I you know, since that so, I mean

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Speaker 1: Kennessaal State is a three and a half point favor

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Speaker 1: they were the better team since that date. I mean,

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Speaker 1: they bet they beat Missouri State. Missouri State was lining

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Speaker 1: up for a field goal to take the lead in

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Speaker 1: the last minute. They beat Liberty. They won a double overtime.

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Speaker 1: Liberty missed a chip shot Fueld goal to win Jacksonville State.

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Speaker 1: Since that game, they lost to FIU and then they

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Speaker 1: beat Western Kentucky on a last second field goal. Both

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Speaker 1: of these teams easily could have like three or four

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Speaker 1: more losses. The Conference USA has been a mess this year.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Jacksville State beat you TEP by three. They

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Speaker 1: beat Middle Tennessee by three. Sam Houston they beat by

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Speaker 1: two on a walk off field goal. I assume both

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Speaker 1: teams will have lots of success moving the ball. The

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Speaker 1: argument for Jacksonville State, you got Cam Cook, the best

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Speaker 1: player in the conference this year, running back, TCU transfer,

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Speaker 1: running home dog, and you've been at home the past

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Speaker 1: few weeks. Kennessaal State has been all over the place.

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Speaker 1: I mean they were at New Mexico State, then at

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Speaker 1: Jacksonville State home for Missouri State, then at Liberty, now

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Speaker 1: at Jacksonville State. Fourth road game in five games. Does

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Speaker 1: that take a toll? I'm close to market here, I

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Speaker 1: mean I'm at three, so like technically I might play

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Speaker 1: Kennessall State at two, but it's not a huge ed.

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Speaker 1: This game should be back and forth. What are you

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Speaker 1: seeing here in the Conference USA Championship with you?

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Speaker 2: I would? I mean I've been waiting for Jacksonville State

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Speaker 2: plus three. I like Jacksonville State. I make a minus

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Speaker 2: one half. I mean, what were we arguing about here,

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Speaker 2: like a point or two power rating difference? But I

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Speaker 2: make am I mean I don't know if I played

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Speaker 2: it two and a half at three. I mean, I

254
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Speaker 2: wouldn't argue with you for taking the three. So no

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Speaker 2: need to go ahead, Dad. Well, I think from an

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Speaker 2: injury perspective, you know, there's not a lot this weekend

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Speaker 2: with these nine games, but in this one, specifically, right

258
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Speaker 2: tackle Reggie Jackson is questionable for the Jacksonville State offensive

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Speaker 2: line behind him Katie Small, I think his name. He's

260
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Speaker 2: been out for a while, but Reggie Jackson didn't play

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Speaker 2: in week fourteen. He is questionable, might play. We'll see

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Speaker 2: if that stunts the Jacksonville State rush offense. And I think,

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Speaker 2: you know, you have to look at how these teams

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Speaker 2: kind of ended the season. They have similar data points,

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Speaker 2: and they played against each other. Kennisol won nine of

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Speaker 2: their final ten games. Are only lost was to Jacksonville

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Speaker 2: State in week twelve. You're right, the Als did turn

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Speaker 2: it over four times, but only two of those turned

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Speaker 2: into methodical drives for Jacksonville State to score. It wasn't

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Speaker 2: like they fumbled in their own you know, behind their

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Speaker 2: own twenty and gave Jacksonville State instant field position two

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Speaker 2: i iNTS that didn't matter. Then there were two methodicals

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Speaker 2: that Jacksonville State scored on and if you look at

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Speaker 2: the yards per play, Jacksonville State eight point one to

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Speaker 2: Kennesaw's six point four. So to me, Jacksonville State won

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Speaker 2: that game handily. They won by nine, and it really

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Speaker 2: wasn't the turnover is the reason why they had that

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Speaker 2: extra boost. So you know, Kennesaw State just could not

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Speaker 2: hold on to the ball. They were very sloppy. Three

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Speaker 2: i in ts from one quarterback at mri Odam won

281
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Speaker 2: to Dexter Williams, Caden Creole, and Cam Cook for Jacksonville

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Speaker 2: State on the ground have been insane. They went for

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Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty plus against Kennesaw State on the ground.

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Speaker 2: I don't see why that's going to change.

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Speaker 1: In this same liberty did just run all over Kennesaw.

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Speaker 2: What's going to happen here? Jacksonville State runs twice as

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Speaker 2: much inside zone as outside. If you look at Kennesaw's defense,

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Speaker 2: they've been okay against inside zone not bad, but I'd

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Speaker 2: like to see Reggie Jackson, who played twenty four of

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Speaker 2: those thirty three rushing snaps at right tackle. I'd like

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Speaker 2: to see him be playing in this game. And then

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Speaker 2: you know Kennesaw's offense their ground base two low success rate,

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Speaker 2: all based on explosives thirty six and rush explosives ninth

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Speaker 2: and pass explodes. And you know they had eight pass

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Speaker 2: explosive against Jacksonville State in the first game. Eight red

296
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Speaker 2: zone trips. This is the problem. This is why they

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Speaker 2: didn't win. It wasn't because of the turnovers. Kennisall didn't

298
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Speaker 2: win that game because they had eight red zone trips.

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Speaker 2: That's a lot three tds, two field goals they just

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Speaker 2: didn't cash. I mean they had turnovers in scoring position.

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Speaker 2: There were thirteen red zone trips completely in this Week

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Speaker 2: twelve game that turned into only six tds. If anything,

303
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Speaker 2: the play is the over. I like the Jacksonville State

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Speaker 2: team total over. I like Jacksonville State on the side,

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Speaker 2: I'm definitely playing over in Jacksonville State team total over.

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Speaker 1: I have nothing strong here. I doubt I'll play this

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Speaker 1: next game. I do have a bet in Troy JMU

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Speaker 1: got DraftKings JMU is a twenty three and a half

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Speaker 1: point favorite total forty seven and a half, So I

310
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Speaker 1: like JMU. I'm close to the number. I'm about twenty

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Speaker 1: four ish, so I played some twenty two and a

312
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Speaker 1: half minus one fifteen, I played some twenty three. Why

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Speaker 1: am I playing this some so close to the number? Well,

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Speaker 1: a couple of reasons. One, Jael Jamius should be healthier

315
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Speaker 1: here Landon Ellis, their star receiver should be back. Their

316
00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:18,800
Speaker 1: stud linebacker Weathersby should be back. Bush their defensive lineman

317
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Speaker 1: only named the watch. He's pretty good, but they have

318
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Speaker 1: some depth there. They should be healthier. They have an

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Speaker 1: incentive to run this up right. This is on Friday night.

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Speaker 1: If Duke wins, you don't want to just beat Troy

321
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Speaker 1: by ten or fourteen. You don't have many great wins

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Speaker 1: on your resume. You want to make a statement. And

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Speaker 1: JMU already has five wins by twenty five or more

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Speaker 1: points in league play, including against the two teams I

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Speaker 1: think are the best in the league, Texas State and

326
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Speaker 1: Old Dominion, who they demolish both. I also think this

327
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Speaker 1: is a good matchup for JAMU. It also doesn't hurt

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Speaker 1: it's going to be in the twenties. Right, Troy is

329
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Speaker 1: not a warm weather team going on the road short week.

330
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Speaker 1: They had a much tougher game last week. But this

331
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Speaker 1: is a good matchup on paper. Why, Well, Troy cannot

332
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Speaker 1: run the ball cannily can't can't run it, Alick, you

333
00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:10,399
Speaker 1: can hit some rush explosives on JMU. Well, Troy has

334
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Speaker 1: no explosiveness in the rushing attack. What does that mean? Well,

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Speaker 1: it's all gonna come down to Goose Crowder at quarterback

336
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Speaker 1: for Troy. He has some good receivers. I don't think

337
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Speaker 1: he's gonna have any time to throw the ball. Their

338
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Speaker 1: offensive line is abysmal. They lost their tackles early in

339
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Speaker 1: the season.

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Speaker 2: He doesn't have a lot of mobility either.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he can't move. And you're going up against a

342
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Speaker 1: defense at top five and pressure rate. Their offensive line

343
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Speaker 1: is abysmal. They're one hundred and fifteenth in pressure rate allowed.

344
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Speaker 1: They've allowed more sacks than any other team in the country,

345
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Speaker 1: dead last and sack rate. So what's gonna happen. Well,

346
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Speaker 1: there's gonna be no passing downs. JMU is a very

347
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Speaker 1: aggressive defense. It's gonna be coming after Crowder and there's

348
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Speaker 1: gonna be negative plays that kill drives and there's gonna

349
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Speaker 1: be turnovers from Crowder. Crowder has under pressure this year.

350
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Speaker 1: He's only completed forty four percent of his passes, one

351
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Speaker 1: big time throw, six turnover. Wheth he plays among one

352
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Speaker 1: hundred and forty nine quarterbacks with at least fifty dropbacks

353
00:18:08,080 --> 00:18:11,800
Speaker 1: under pressure, Crowder is one of only four with a

354
00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:15,159
Speaker 1: turnover whereth they play right north of ten percent. I

355
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Speaker 1: just don't see Al Troy consistently news of all. Maybe

356
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Speaker 1: they hit some explosives, but in the cold under pressure,

357
00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:24,720
Speaker 1: Crowder not really that mobile. Maybe they found something against

358
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Speaker 1: other mess but remember this is a team that limped

359
00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:31,080
Speaker 1: to the finish line before. Last week they lost thirty

360
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Speaker 1: three to nothing at Old Dominion. The yardage in that

361
00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:37,639
Speaker 1: game was five oh three to one thirty eight. They

362
00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:42,360
Speaker 1: didn't score a point. Jam you good matchup, healthier incentive

363
00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:45,760
Speaker 1: to run it up at home in the cold. Give

364
00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:48,600
Speaker 1: me the Dukes. I think they win. I think they

365
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Speaker 1: win by thirty plus.

366
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Speaker 2: Yeah. I haven't made a play on this game because

367
00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:53,639
Speaker 2: I was waiting till this pod to talk to you

368
00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:56,880
Speaker 2: about it. I had this in my notes. I'm staring

369
00:18:56,920 --> 00:18:59,639
Speaker 2: at it. James Madison, team total over or should I

370
00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:02,359
Speaker 2: bet Troy team total under I mean, it's the exact

371
00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:07,320
Speaker 2: same thinking that you have Chez JMU play Yeah they doo,

372
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Speaker 2: And I do think the JAMU number is gonna steam

373
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Speaker 2: like I may get twenty four. I think there's another

374
00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:13,840
Speaker 2: projection out there. I think at twenty six, but I

375
00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:15,800
Speaker 2: do think it's gonna take. I think Jami is going

376
00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:17,440
Speaker 2: to take a ton of money leading up here, and

377
00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:20,000
Speaker 2: Chisney's expected to stay with the team even if they

378
00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:21,880
Speaker 2: make the College Fotball Playoff. I guess he won't start

379
00:19:21,880 --> 00:19:25,960
Speaker 2: working the UCLA portal till January second officially, but JMU

380
00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:28,800
Speaker 2: scored at least thirty five and five straight Sun Belt

381
00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:31,840
Speaker 2: games three fifty burgers in the past. Three of the

382
00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:34,840
Speaker 2: last four games a d fifty Burgers Coastal app State,

383
00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:38,919
Speaker 2: Texas State, Old Dominion was blank. I mean they blanked

384
00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,520
Speaker 2: Troy in week twelve thirty three to zero, and JMU

385
00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:43,520
Speaker 2: beat Old Dominion sixty three to twenty seven. Does that

386
00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:45,480
Speaker 2: tell you the gap between these two teams? If you

387
00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:49,280
Speaker 2: use Old Dominion as a marker, the Troy's defense forty

388
00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:52,280
Speaker 2: three success rate against inside zone with a light box,

389
00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:55,040
Speaker 2: it's exactly what JMU runs all the time with Wayne

390
00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:57,960
Speaker 2: Knight and Alonza Barnett. This is bad. And you mentioned

391
00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:01,040
Speaker 2: Goose Crowder like we said no mobility a seven to

392
00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:03,119
Speaker 2: one ted Iron TI ratio the last two weeks. But

393
00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:07,199
Speaker 2: it's Georgia State and Southern Missus defenses. Here's the problem.

394
00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:09,080
Speaker 2: Troy can't run the ball at all. Some of the

395
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:11,880
Speaker 2: worst rushing metrics you will see of any team this weekend.

396
00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:14,280
Speaker 2: And when they try to throw, James Madison is third

397
00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:15,959
Speaker 2: in the nation and creating contested catches.

398
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:19,200
Speaker 1: I they can't and Toroy can't pass protect. Yeah, against

399
00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:21,360
Speaker 1: a team that can get after the quarterback.

400
00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:23,080
Speaker 2: I'm staying at the buffet of James Madison. Am I

401
00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:25,840
Speaker 2: going team total over Troy, team total under or the side?

402
00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:27,520
Speaker 2: I'm actually I'm gonna put in the app now. I'm

403
00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:30,520
Speaker 2: gonna bet it James Madison team total over because the

404
00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:32,720
Speaker 2: fact that they play on Friday and need to show

405
00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:35,679
Speaker 2: off that extra TV might come because of that factor

406
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:36,200
Speaker 2: with Chesney.

407
00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:39,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's huge. Put JM.

408
00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:41,000
Speaker 2: You in the agree you want to do a team

409
00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:42,560
Speaker 2: total over the side? Which one do you want? You?

410
00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:43,240
Speaker 2: I'll let you call it.

411
00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:45,280
Speaker 1: Let's split it all right, put it half in a

412
00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:48,600
Speaker 1: half all right, all right. By the way, since two

413
00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:52,080
Speaker 1: thousand and five, only six other teams have closed as

414
00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:54,000
Speaker 1: a favorite of more than twenty three points in the

415
00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:57,520
Speaker 1: conference championship five and one against the spread, covering by

416
00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:00,560
Speaker 1: twelve points per game on average. So five of the

417
00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:05,879
Speaker 1: previous six have covered with ease, all one and blowout fashion.

418
00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:10,480
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the American Championship winner

419
00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:13,159
Speaker 1: going to the College Wall playoff. North Texas two and

420
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:18,880
Speaker 1: a half point road favorite at Tulane. I think it's

421
00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:21,959
Speaker 1: they're justified. I'm right on market or two and a half.

422
00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:23,960
Speaker 1: Now here's the thing. I don't have to worry about

423
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Speaker 1: handicapping this game. I'll give you my thoughts. I have

424
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:30,440
Speaker 1: a North Texas eighteen to one. I will be going

425
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:38,600
Speaker 1: for the joyous middle. You should, so I'm going to

426
00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:41,440
Speaker 1: go for you know, hopefully North Texas wins by one

427
00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:45,560
Speaker 1: or two or three, and it will be a beautiful

428
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:48,119
Speaker 1: day because I'm right on right around market. I do

429
00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:51,280
Speaker 1: think the difference ultimately could be right. The North Texas

430
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:53,920
Speaker 1: defense is very much improved from last year. It's what's

431
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:57,480
Speaker 1: got him here. I mean mess to Maker amazing story.

432
00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:00,520
Speaker 1: And not only is it mess to Maker, I mean

433
00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:02,159
Speaker 1: North Texas. If you watch them, it's like do they

434
00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:05,760
Speaker 1: score every drive? Their offense is electric. Mess Maker led

435
00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:08,600
Speaker 1: the nation and passing yards he didn't even start. I

436
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:10,400
Speaker 1: mean everyone knows. I mean most people know the story

437
00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:13,560
Speaker 1: didn't start in high school, walked on. But they also

438
00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:16,360
Speaker 1: have a rushing attack with Caleb Hawkins a freshman, he's

439
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:20,000
Speaker 1: been unbelievable. But their defense, their offense has been great

440
00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:23,120
Speaker 1: for years. It's their defense now as competent. It's still

441
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:26,320
Speaker 1: not elite, but it's competent. They brought out over Skylar

442
00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:28,920
Speaker 1: Cassidy from Sam Houston. A lot of the Sam Houston

443
00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:32,000
Speaker 1: State players are their best players. It is a defense

444
00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:34,879
Speaker 1: that will give up some in the run game. They

445
00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:38,960
Speaker 1: want to force turnovers, wreck havoc. That's where I worry

446
00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:42,800
Speaker 1: about Tulane because Retz Laugh he will put the ball

447
00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:44,880
Speaker 1: in harm's way, and you don't want to give away

448
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:49,120
Speaker 1: possessions against North Texas. The two lane run game also

449
00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 1: isn't great this year when Retz Laugh isn't getting his yards.

450
00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:57,240
Speaker 1: So I don't know. I think North Texas wins a

451
00:22:57,280 --> 00:22:59,080
Speaker 1: close one, but I could see it going either way.

452
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:03,680
Speaker 1: I make it two point four, so it's a pass,

453
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 1: I will be hedging. I'm waiting for a three. Might

454
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 1: buy to a three, maybe a chief two and a half,

455
00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:11,800
Speaker 1: I don't know. But I can watch this game free

456
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:16,119
Speaker 1: rolled and we'll win either way. Clearly, some followed on

457
00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 1: North Texas.

458
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 2: That's a good feeling. I mean to have an eighteen

459
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:20,359
Speaker 2: to one of pocket and the team that you have

460
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:22,119
Speaker 2: is favored, it's it's a really good feeling.

461
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:25,840
Speaker 1: Now are you had that in the mac though? When

462
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,400
Speaker 1: Northern Kent State, When Kent State lost to North when

463
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:32,960
Speaker 1: Northern Illinois that luck Box year, that was miserable. But

464
00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:35,200
Speaker 1: you like Tulane here.

465
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:38,720
Speaker 2: I do like Tulane. You know, I think I can't

466
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:42,879
Speaker 2: really put down the North Texas offense at all. I mean,

467
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:44,360
Speaker 2: you can't say anything, and you can't say that they're

468
00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 2: not going to have their way other than the Factor's

469
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:48,440
Speaker 2: a couple of things that you know, I kind of noticed,

470
00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:50,720
Speaker 2: like Bryce Bohannon is questionable two point two yards per

471
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:52,919
Speaker 2: out run from the slot. That's big for the offense.

472
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:55,440
Speaker 2: They can work without them, though, But the defensive line,

473
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 2: like there are backups that have injuries, brycon On Hayes,

474
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 2: Sadie Clement's questionable it's just a thinner defensive line, and

475
00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:05,000
Speaker 2: I don't think that's good against Tulane whatsoever. You know,

476
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 2: the North Texas defensive line has just been shredded all season.

477
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:09,479
Speaker 2: I mean they're one hundred and eleventh and the defensive

478
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:11,200
Speaker 2: rushing success right one hundred and twenty fourth in the

479
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 2: line yards. That's not going to work against Tulane. Retz

480
00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:15,760
Speaker 2: Laugh has as many rushing tds as he does passing

481
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:19,159
Speaker 2: tds fourteen on the season, seven explosives. He has just

482
00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:23,560
Speaker 2: been insane on the ground with Jay jovin Gordon and

483
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:25,480
Speaker 2: the two lane ground game, I think is the difference.

484
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,000
Speaker 2: So there is a common opponent between these two teams

485
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,120
Speaker 2: and two of them in the last few weeks, So Charlotte.

486
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:32,920
Speaker 2: Both these teams played Charlotte. In Week ten, North Texas

487
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 2: faced them. They allowed six point three yards per play

488
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:38,040
Speaker 2: to Charlotte. That's a lot. Tulane only allowed two point

489
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 2: nine last week Week fourteen to Charlotte. That's a huge discrepancy.

490
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:44,560
Speaker 2: You look at Temple, they just played these two teams,

491
00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:46,879
Speaker 2: just played them. The last two weeks. North Texas allowed

492
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:49,480
Speaker 2: four point five yards per play Tulane three point six.

493
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:52,399
Speaker 2: You take the common data points in Charlotte and Temple.

494
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:55,160
Speaker 2: You dump out the yards per play and Tulane should

495
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:59,600
Speaker 2: be favored here defensively, offensively. I don't see North Texas

496
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 2: stop anything tou Lane's going to do on the ground.

497
00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:04,560
Speaker 2: Some are all there's a big difference between Eric Morris

498
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 2: and Summer Roll here, and I don't know if it's

499
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:08,520
Speaker 2: going to play in this game. But Eric Morris announces

500
00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 2: Oklahoma State new coach. He's taken on some of the

501
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:15,200
Speaker 2: media stuff, he's taken on questions he's he's saying I'm

502
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:18,440
Speaker 2: concentrated on North Texas in this game. And then when

503
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 2: asked like if there's a difference between him and Summer Roll,

504
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 2: how Summer All's handled like Somemrell basically said, don't even

505
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 2: talk to me about Florida until after this American Championship game,

506
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:27,639
Speaker 2: Like I don't want to be acknowledged, I don't want

507
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:28,879
Speaker 2: to be introduced. I want anything to do with it

508
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:31,399
Speaker 2: because I want to win the American So there's been

509
00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:34,439
Speaker 2: two different methodologies here. I don't know if that affects

510
00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:36,200
Speaker 2: the game, But what I do know is that the

511
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 2: common data points with Charlotte Temple in recent weeks say

512
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:40,200
Speaker 2: that tu lane is going to dominate in this game.

513
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:43,880
Speaker 1: I mean, are they stopping North Texas. Who's stopping North

514
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:45,159
Speaker 1: Texas one?

515
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 2: I mean because North Texas ain't stopping Tulane on the ground.

516
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 2: That's good in the ground.

517
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:54,440
Speaker 1: It's going to come down to Retz laugh not turning

518
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 1: the ball over. What is he have eighteen turnover worth

519
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 1: he plays this year? I think I said he can't

520
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:01,359
Speaker 1: turn the ball over. He turned. If he casts it

521
00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:04,440
Speaker 1: up a couple of times, North Texas is going to

522
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:06,800
Speaker 1: score and then you're in trouble. That and that's what

523
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:08,720
Speaker 1: the North Texas defense is built on. It's built on

524
00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:10,720
Speaker 1: taking the ball away. That's the key. I think the

525
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 1: two lane, because to lane will be able to move

526
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:16,480
Speaker 1: it Ratslav cannot turn the ball over. I think this

527
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 1: will be a good game.

528
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 2: I mean amazing.

529
00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:20,399
Speaker 1: I mean like this is for this is a this

530
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:21,400
Speaker 1: is a playoff game.

531
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:24,760
Speaker 2: When to get these legs. By the way, I mean,

532
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,199
Speaker 2: because all he did was chuck balums at BYU last year.

533
00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:29,640
Speaker 2: I'm so happy he transferred and we got bear Bachmeyer.

534
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:30,840
Speaker 2: But that's another game.

535
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:36,440
Speaker 1: By the way, the North Texas quarterback last year and

536
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:39,879
Speaker 1: the two lane quarterback last year are playing in the

537
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:45,359
Speaker 1: a SEC Championship. Yep, Mensa and Morris And now you

538
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 1: have TWU Lane in North Texas with new quarterbacks playing

539
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:49,920
Speaker 1: for a college fotball playoff spot.

540
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 2: Well guess what half the half the AAC coaches are

541
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:54,440
Speaker 2: now in the SEC.

542
00:26:54,760 --> 00:27:01,480
Speaker 1: So fair enough? All right, let's let's Ryan Silverfield stop.

543
00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:03,600
Speaker 2: I don't want to. We're all excited, is what I hear.

544
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:05,680
Speaker 2: He was passing out chicken last night at the basketball

545
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:07,680
Speaker 2: game against Louisville. It helped, I guess.

546
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 1: Could win for Arkansas. All right? Final game on Friday night,

547
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 1: UNLV Boise State.

548
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 2: Boom Market's just on fire for Boise As we're recording this.

549
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 1: Boise up out to a five to five and a

550
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:26,480
Speaker 1: half point favor total fifty eight.

551
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:30,199
Speaker 2: Is who wants this game? I wanted? I do New

552
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 2: Mexico nobody again.

553
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 1: For what it's worth, Boise State has dominated this year.

554
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,439
Speaker 1: Is going for fifth you want to They won eleven

555
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 1: straight in this series. The last time you NLV pop

556
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:47,639
Speaker 1: would State is back in the seventies. They're going for

557
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 1: their fifth straight win over the past three years, including

558
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:53,600
Speaker 1: three straight in the conference championship. It was a down

559
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 1: year for Boise UNLV should have had a couple more losses,

560
00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:00,359
Speaker 1: but they are playing their best ball of the Their

561
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:05,119
Speaker 1: offense is rolling the big, the big uncertain year. I

562
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:07,200
Speaker 1: saw that you make this closer a pick? Is that

563
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:10,160
Speaker 1: full strength? I'm I'm at like seven, so I actually

564
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:13,480
Speaker 1: would lean Boise, but I'm projecting like with a fully

565
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:17,040
Speaker 1: healthy Mattox Matson. Remember these teams met earlier this year

566
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 1: on the Smurf Turf and Boise won by twenty six.

567
00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:23,639
Speaker 1: They were thirteen and a half point favorites. Well, now

568
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 1: this thing was down to three and a half. I

569
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 1: mean the ten point adjustment. Now you know he has

570
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 1: been playing much better. It shouldn't be that high, but

571
00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:32,640
Speaker 1: I am still closer around six and a half seven.

572
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:37,119
Speaker 1: Mattson's gonna be back. I just don't know is their rust?

573
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:41,280
Speaker 1: Is he fully healthy? For sure? Like one percent? I

574
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:41,800
Speaker 1: don't know.

575
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 2: Well that's the whole thing, is no no power What

576
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 2: do you so you power rate this closer to seven?

577
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 2: Like I think this number is taking off because of

578
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 2: his status.

579
00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:52,840
Speaker 1: Yes, but that's it. Like Mattson was was fully healthy

580
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 1: and I knew it and there was no rust. And

581
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:56,800
Speaker 1: now you and I he's playing a lot better. I

582
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 1: mean they closed the season really strong. They dominated Hawaii

583
00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 1: dominated YEP. The offense is rolling, the running game is rolling.

584
00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 1: I think the key for Boise is Marshall, their wide

585
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:13,920
Speaker 1: receiver who circuitous passed to Boise State. He was at

586
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 1: Texas A and m then went Juco. Really talented kid.

587
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 1: He had one hundred yards and a touchdown versus o

588
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:21,400
Speaker 1: L in the first meeting, but then he will disappear

589
00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 1: for games. So I think he's one of the X

590
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:29,760
Speaker 1: factors for Boise State. I think both offenses should have success.

591
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 1: I think both offenses have major advantages here, but I

592
00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:38,640
Speaker 1: just don't know on Mattson. So I can't really bet

593
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:41,880
Speaker 1: this game with any sense of confidence. But you're back

594
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:42,400
Speaker 1: in the revs.

595
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 2: Well, no, it's not that I'm back in the revs.

596
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:47,960
Speaker 2: It's that I have a preseason Boise State to win

597
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:49,680
Speaker 2: the Mountain West. So I went in and put a

598
00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 2: couple of units on UNLV at plus three and a half. Now,

599
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:54,760
Speaker 2: I do make the game closer to pick, but I

600
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 2: completely understand the steam because while these two teams have

601
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 2: similar data points, I mean, look at Utah State in

602
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 2: the last couple of weeks, like both of them like

603
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:07,719
Speaker 2: barely won the game. Both of them had extremely similar

604
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:10,680
Speaker 2: yards per play five point nine for UNLV six point

605
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:12,959
Speaker 2: one for Boise. If you do the common opponents thing,

606
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 2: this power rating should be pretty close to even on

607
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:19,040
Speaker 2: each other. I think the problem is is that for

608
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 2: some reason Boise dominates the series. This is the same

609
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 2: issue I had last year, Like I really thought Barry

610
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 2: Odaman UNLV had the defense and the go go offense

611
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 2: that could challenge us, and they got blown out of

612
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 2: the water. Then look at their game this year. Bois

613
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:34,520
Speaker 2: nine point eight yards per play against unlvs D to

614
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 2: UNLV six point eight. I mean, UNLVD is so easy

615
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:41,840
Speaker 2: to attack on the ground. They're outside the top one

616
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:44,600
Speaker 2: hundred every rush metric you can try to find one

617
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 2: hundred and thirty second allowing rush explosives. Boise's just going

618
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 2: to take advantage of that all day. Dylan Riley is

619
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 2: a machine. I mean, twenty one rushing attempts that have

620
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:54,200
Speaker 2: gone over ten yards this season. That's going to happen

621
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:56,680
Speaker 2: probably in every rushing attempt here. He's had a TD

622
00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:58,640
Speaker 2: in five to the last six games. I mean, anytime

623
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 2: TD for Dylan Riley. Believe I'd even take two plus tds,

624
00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:06,000
Speaker 2: you know, and Boise's got a top five defense and

625
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 2: against the past, and that's gonna be a problem for Calandria.

626
00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 2: I don't know. I think UNLB is going to have

627
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 2: more stops on their offense than what Boise is gonna have,

628
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 2: because you know, these defense is so bad. But this

629
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 2: number just keeps getting slammed. I don't know where it's

630
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:19,920
Speaker 2: going to stop. And I don't know if I can

631
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 2: advise people to come back and take unob because Boise

632
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 2: owns this series.

633
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:28,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, if I knew Madison was ready to go fully healthy,

634
00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 1: I would play Boise at four and a half. But

635
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 1: I just can't with any sense of confidence. I'm just

636
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:36,480
Speaker 1: mad that this is the game I really wanted New

637
00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:40,720
Speaker 1: Mexico or San Diego State or that's a shame. Yeah.

638
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:43,560
Speaker 2: By the way, the total is getting hammered down, which

639
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 2: I don't know. I make it fifty eight. I don't

640
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:47,960
Speaker 2: know who's banging this down to fifty seven and a half.

641
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 2: I think we're sitting.

642
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:51,120
Speaker 1: Fifty nine down average at fifty eight too.

643
00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:53,640
Speaker 2: I just I don't know if that's being shape for

644
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:55,960
Speaker 2: a comeback. I just who's taking an under and feeling

645
00:31:56,000 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 2: comfortable in this game.

646
00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:01,040
Speaker 1: You also have the weather is I don't think it's

647
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 1: gonna be like the biggest weather's in JMU. You could

648
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 1: get a wintry mix, which I think all favors JMU.

649
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 1: But it's gonna be you might, you might get some rain,

650
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 1: and it's gonna be in the thirties. That also probably

651
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 1: does favor boys. I mean you and LB's a dome

652
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 1: dome team. But they did go up to Wyoming in

653
00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:22,720
Speaker 1: a hailstorm and get a win. So I mean they've

654
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 1: got two block block punts for touchdowns. I'm still not

655
00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 1: over that.

656
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:29,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, they were colden Reno last week. They had no problems.

657
00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 1: That's fair. All right, let's move on to Saturday. Let's

658
00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:36,200
Speaker 1: start with the MAC. I have a player I like

659
00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 1: the under forty three and a half at DraftKings. Right now.

660
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 1: Here's the thing. I played the under in the first meeting.

661
00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 1: I played under forty two and a half, closed forty

662
00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 1: and a half. I made it under forty. It went

663
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:57,640
Speaker 1: over by the hook of the number that I had.

664
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:01,040
Speaker 1: It took a fifty one yard field goal after a

665
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 1: five yard touchdown drive in the final minute. It also

666
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 1: took Western Michigan had a eighty yard kick return. That's

667
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:11,320
Speaker 1: set up a twenty yard touchdown at the end of

668
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:13,360
Speaker 1: the first half. Otherwise it's nine to seven at a half.

669
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 1: Game goes way under and that was with the Kwan

670
00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 1: Finn at quarterback Gostkowski. So the Miami Ohio we'll take

671
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:26,160
Speaker 1: a step back. But this is at Ford Field, neon

672
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 1: Eastern Western Michigan. Two and a half point favor total

673
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 1: forty three and a half. So I made that total

674
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 1: just from a peer numbers perspective, a bit under forty.

675
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 1: In the first meeting, I have a that was outdoors

676
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:46,520
Speaker 1: though conditions were fine, But now this game will be

677
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:48,880
Speaker 1: playing a dome. I adjusted up point point and a half.

678
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 1: And Daikwon Finn is no longer the quarterback. He left

679
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 1: the program. Then they went to Henry Hessen. He was awful,

680
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 1: So they went to this freshman, Thomas Oskowski. He's been

681
00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:00,760
Speaker 1: good the past two games, but it was against Buffalo

682
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 1: and ball State. This is a much different test against

683
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 1: the Western Michigan defense, which is legit, and the running

684
00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:10,360
Speaker 1: game isn't going to be as good. The elusiveness that

685
00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:12,759
Speaker 1: Finn has isn't going to be there against a really

686
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:16,200
Speaker 1: good pass rush that Western Michigan has so the offense,

687
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 1: I have to downgrade that. Maybe Guskowski the next big Ben.

688
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:20,759
Speaker 1: I don't know if he's stole a freshman going up

689
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:22,840
Speaker 1: against a really good date. So I'm I'm at like

690
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:24,760
Speaker 1: forty one forty one and a half here in the total.

691
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:26,919
Speaker 1: I'm fine playing under forty three and a half, even

692
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:29,880
Speaker 1: indoors Mac unders. By the way, they've all been indoors

693
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:32,359
Speaker 1: thirteen and seven to the under. Sixth straight have gone

694
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:37,840
Speaker 1: under Miamis Ohio methodical, slow. Western Michigan is basically a

695
00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 1: service academy. They're a Mac service academy. They just want

696
00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:43,440
Speaker 1: to run the ball to Buckley. They run over their quarterback.

697
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:46,360
Speaker 1: Their quarterback, Rock Lowry is their leading rusher. He is

698
00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:48,959
Speaker 1: the most rushing attempts the most rushing yards. They can't

699
00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:51,920
Speaker 1: really throw the ball. Mind Ohio generally doesn't give up

700
00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 1: anything explosive. They make you work down the field. Western

701
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:58,640
Speaker 1: Michigan wants to have like seven eight minute drives. Miami

702
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:01,120
Speaker 1: Ohio wants to run the ball. Their offensive line isn't great.

703
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:02,879
Speaker 1: They have a really good right tackle, their left tackle

704
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 1: can't pass protect. That's not good against Tucker, who was

705
00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:08,960
Speaker 1: fifty five pressures my have Ohio. Also they shut down

706
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:12,080
Speaker 1: the Western Michigan rushing attack in the first meeting, and

707
00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:13,799
Speaker 1: they have a guy Adam Trick who was even more

708
00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:17,000
Speaker 1: pressures than Tuckery has like sixty three pressures on the air,

709
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 1: they can get after the quarterback. So I think it's

710
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:20,840
Speaker 1: gonna be a lot of negative plays, unknown passing downs

711
00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:23,719
Speaker 1: that will kill drives. I Ohio does have a big

712
00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:26,919
Speaker 1: special teams advantage, Chuck Martin in these high leverage games,

713
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:31,239
Speaker 1: always play special teams, will play field position, play it conservatively.

714
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 1: I think this would be a slow paced, grinder type game.

715
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:37,880
Speaker 1: Maybe the freshman from high they will take shots like

716
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:40,239
Speaker 1: they play conservative run run, run, and they will take shots.

717
00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:44,480
Speaker 1: His adout. It's like fifteen has two starts, so maybe

718
00:35:44,520 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 1: they hit a couple of those because they their receivers

719
00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:49,200
Speaker 1: or cole Weavers. Come on, cam Perry's a walking explosive.

720
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:53,319
Speaker 1: But I think both defensive lines will have big advantages here.

721
00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:56,800
Speaker 1: I think this is going under. I think this is

722
00:35:56,880 --> 00:36:01,560
Speaker 1: like a twenty to seventeen type of game. So I'm

723
00:36:01,640 --> 00:36:04,279
Speaker 1: rolling with the under in Ford field. What do you

724
00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 1: got here?

725
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:06,520
Speaker 2: I don't hate it. I make it forty two point eight,

726
00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:08,359
Speaker 2: so I would lean to the under two. I caught

727
00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:11,719
Speaker 2: Miami plus three on the open and now it's done

728
00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:13,560
Speaker 2: nothing but take money and come down a little bit.

729
00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:16,759
Speaker 2: I would still play Miami of Ohio on the money line.

730
00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:19,879
Speaker 2: If you're listening to this right now, you can't really

731
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:22,160
Speaker 2: talk about the game they had on October twenty fifth

732
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:24,240
Speaker 2: because Dakwan finn Like dominated on offense.

733
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:25,879
Speaker 1: For the record, it was amazing game.

734
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:28,480
Speaker 2: What you can to mention is that Western Michigan only

735
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:30,759
Speaker 2: had a single red zone trip that entire game, and

736
00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 2: that's applicable here against this Miami defense. They got to

737
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:36,160
Speaker 2: go up again. Henry Hesson was replaced by Thomas gott

738
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 2: Kowski in week thirteen. He beat Buffalo, a twenty one

739
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:42,359
Speaker 2: point win over boll State. Gostkowski is now I'm sorry

740
00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:44,799
Speaker 2: gott Kowski not to be mixed up with the kicker.

741
00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:48,960
Speaker 2: Goskowski seven big time throws, one turnover worthy play. Western

742
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:51,600
Speaker 2: Michigan is eighty fourth and coverage grading. I think gott

743
00:36:51,640 --> 00:36:54,480
Speaker 2: Kowski is going to have some success here throwing against

744
00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:57,239
Speaker 2: Western Michigan on the back end of their defense. West

745
00:36:57,280 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 2: Michigan really.

746
00:36:57,880 --> 00:36:59,439
Speaker 1: Any at time, that's the biggest question.

747
00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, Western Michigan specializes in stopping the run, so I

748
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:05,400
Speaker 2: don't think RedHawks are gonna have a lot of success

749
00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:09,520
Speaker 2: on the ground. But god Kowski has ran with Jordan Brunson,

750
00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:12,720
Speaker 2: who has fourteen tds on the season. They look capable.

751
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:15,759
Speaker 2: Not to Kwan finish as great as that ground game,

752
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:19,279
Speaker 2: but it looks capable. Western Michigan plays a lot of

753
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:22,440
Speaker 2: man outside zone read with Brock Lowry and running back

754
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:25,479
Speaker 2: Jalen Buckley. But minam Ole how is fifty five percent

755
00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:28,239
Speaker 2: success right in defending those run concepts. That's very good.

756
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:31,600
Speaker 2: So I think Western Michigan, again, like you said, miam

757
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:33,960
Speaker 2: bhow is going to make them earn their yards and

758
00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:35,960
Speaker 2: earn their field position. And that's what happened in the

759
00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:38,160
Speaker 2: first game when Western Michigan was limited to one red

760
00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 2: zone trip. That's what's going to happen here again. And

761
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:44,440
Speaker 2: I trust gott Kowski with throwing, so Miami Ohio, I

762
00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:45,399
Speaker 2: would take him on the money line.

763
00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:48,120
Speaker 1: Still, both defenses do a good job of theliminiting explosives,

764
00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:50,360
Speaker 1: which helps the under as well. I have two to

765
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:55,400
Speaker 1: fifth year senior safeties really do a good job of

766
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:58,880
Speaker 1: just not allowing explosives, cleaning everything up Corbyn Hondre one

767
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:01,319
Speaker 1: of Minahaw's best line. Macrocy is questionable. I do think

768
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 1: he's gonna play, but that's worth noting. But I like

769
00:38:04,239 --> 00:38:06,480
Speaker 1: the under Colin likes Miami. Let's go to the Big

770
00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:10,000
Speaker 1: twelve Championship between b YU and Texas Tech. We both

771
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:12,279
Speaker 1: agree with BYU wins. Obviously they're in, they lose, they're

772
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:16,719
Speaker 1: out right, Yeah, Texas Tech they win the top four seed?

773
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:18,799
Speaker 1: Yeah no, depending on why that.

774
00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:25,120
Speaker 2: Like, how bad does yeah? I mean who's going to

775
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:27,520
Speaker 2: slip in organ tex A and m No.

776
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:30,440
Speaker 1: No. I mean I think we'll talk about Ohio State

777
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:32,080
Speaker 1: Indiana in a minute there. I think both of those

778
00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:32,800
Speaker 1: teams are locked.

779
00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:35,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, by right, Yeah, I think the loser gets three

780
00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:35,920
Speaker 2: or four.

781
00:38:36,360 --> 00:38:39,360
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean you can't move Oregon over Indiana. I

782
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 1: mean Indiana won at Oregon and you can't move Ohio

783
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:44,600
Speaker 1: State out of the top four.

784
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 2: Indiana, Ohio State. It's really a fight for the Rose Bowl,

785
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 2: That's what it is.

786
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:55,400
Speaker 1: Yes, And if Georgia wins, they're getting a bye. If

787
00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 1: Alabama wins, I think Alabama is getting a bye. And

788
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:05,880
Speaker 1: the reason is you can't penalize Georgia too much and

789
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:08,719
Speaker 1: alabam would be the SEC champ. They would have two

790
00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:10,920
Speaker 1: wins over Georgia, one on a neutral one at Georgia,

791
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:13,680
Speaker 1: so you have to put Alabama ahead of Georgia. So

792
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:16,080
Speaker 1: I think like Alabama will go to the four, Georgia

793
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:17,640
Speaker 1: would go to like the five or six.

794
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:18,840
Speaker 2: You don't think it's Texas A and.

795
00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:22,920
Speaker 1: M no A M. I think is locked into like

796
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:27,800
Speaker 1: the seven. So yeah, I think if if Texas Tech wins,

797
00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 1: there are they're at the four right now. So if

798
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:34,800
Speaker 1: they win, they're getting a bye if they lose their in,

799
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:39,400
Speaker 1: but they obviously will lose their bye. This spread is

800
00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 1: Texas Tech minus thirteen total forty nine and a half.

801
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:46,360
Speaker 1: Texas Tech was a thirteen and a half point favorite

802
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:48,080
Speaker 1: at home in Lubbock, where they have a pretty good

803
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:50,560
Speaker 1: home field advantage. The total was also right around the

804
00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:55,480
Speaker 1: same number. Easy Tech win and cover easy under it.

805
00:39:56,000 --> 00:39:59,560
Speaker 1: I do find it interesting that there was wind in

806
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:02,759
Speaker 1: that game win, impactful win, and the totals at the

807
00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:07,000
Speaker 1: same level. Even though this will be indoors at Jerry World.

808
00:40:08,280 --> 00:40:10,960
Speaker 1: The question is can be why you do anything offensively?

809
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:14,319
Speaker 1: They didn't in the first meeting. They won't be able

810
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:15,760
Speaker 1: to run the ball you cannot run.

811
00:40:15,640 --> 00:40:18,200
Speaker 2: The ball that they tried too much to run the

812
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:18,760
Speaker 2: ball in Texas.

813
00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:20,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're gonna have to come be creative here. This

814
00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:23,000
Speaker 1: is where like adjustments, they know they're going for the

815
00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:26,279
Speaker 1: College Wilt plaoff spot. You're gonna get the kitchen sink here,

816
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:29,839
Speaker 1: and what can they come up with through the air

817
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:35,239
Speaker 1: trick plays like they've been They've been pretty create I mean,

818
00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:37,279
Speaker 1: Aaron Roders been pretty pretty creative in a lot of

819
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:40,360
Speaker 1: games that I've seen. They're gonna have to get creative

820
00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:42,800
Speaker 1: here because you just can't run like adjusted for opponent

821
00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:44,800
Speaker 1: Tech Texas texts at the best run defense in the country.

822
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:48,759
Speaker 1: They're I mean they hit in the portal on their

823
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:51,080
Speaker 1: defensive line. They have two pros on their defensive line.

824
00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:54,920
Speaker 1: Jacob Rodriguez is a monster linebacker. The weakness for attack,

825
00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:57,200
Speaker 1: if there is one, is their corners, and you're gonna

826
00:40:57,200 --> 00:40:58,560
Speaker 1: have to attack them. You're gonna have to find ways

827
00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:00,479
Speaker 1: to attack them, and you're gonna have to find ways

828
00:41:00,520 --> 00:41:05,040
Speaker 1: to keep bear out of harm's way of this nasty

829
00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:07,480
Speaker 1: pass rush on the other side of the balls. The

830
00:41:07,520 --> 00:41:10,040
Speaker 1: question is can Texas Tech finished drives like the weakness

831
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:12,840
Speaker 1: for them the running game isn't great, Like they'll hit

832
00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:13,960
Speaker 1: some explosives, but it's not.

833
00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:16,120
Speaker 2: Now hold on the offensive line is not great. The

834
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:17,320
Speaker 2: running backs are great.

835
00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:19,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, but because of that, it's not a very efficient

836
00:41:20,320 --> 00:41:23,400
Speaker 1: rushing attack. And then at times they can struggle to

837
00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:26,360
Speaker 1: finish drives off like they probably should. They could have

838
00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:28,480
Speaker 1: put up a bigger number if they could finish drives

839
00:41:28,520 --> 00:41:32,120
Speaker 1: in that first meeting. So interesting number that this is

840
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:34,440
Speaker 1: at thirteen and a half because it was thirteen and

841
00:41:34,480 --> 00:41:36,880
Speaker 1: a half in Lubbock. Interesting that the total was for

842
00:41:37,040 --> 00:41:39,600
Speaker 1: and a half. But based on that first meeting, you

843
00:41:39,719 --> 00:41:41,839
Speaker 1: might say, look, Al's by You're going to move the ball.

844
00:41:42,000 --> 00:41:42,640
Speaker 1: What do you see here?

845
00:41:44,000 --> 00:41:48,920
Speaker 2: I think BYU tried too hard to establish Bear and LJ. Martin.

846
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 2: They were coming off of a bye week. LJ. Martin

847
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:53,799
Speaker 2: was coming off injury. I think our bear was beating

848
00:41:53,880 --> 00:41:55,480
Speaker 2: up a little bit. They came off a bye week,

849
00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 2: They looked rusty, they didn't look ready, and they combined

850
00:41:58,160 --> 00:41:59,880
Speaker 2: for forty seven yards on the ground. Trying to run

851
00:41:59,920 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 2: inside zone, which is what BYU's done all year didn't work.

852
00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:07,239
Speaker 2: I believe what you said, which is they're gonna have

853
00:42:07,239 --> 00:42:09,800
Speaker 2: a different game plan this time and it includes Chase Roberts,

854
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:11,759
Speaker 2: who is going to be available for this game after

855
00:42:11,800 --> 00:42:14,080
Speaker 2: sitting out with Big working against UCF. So this is

856
00:42:14,239 --> 00:42:17,560
Speaker 2: I think Sataki. By the way, I love everything that's

857
00:42:17,600 --> 00:42:21,200
Speaker 2: going on with Sataki. This this whole this emotional outburst

858
00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:25,640
Speaker 2: of like you know, BYU re upping the crumble cookie owner,

859
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:29,640
Speaker 2: this wee protein owner, like coming to the save BYU's

860
00:42:29,680 --> 00:42:31,879
Speaker 2: head coach. Like it's it's a very field good story.

861
00:42:31,960 --> 00:42:34,520
Speaker 2: It's very emotional in provo right now that they're keeping Sataki.

862
00:42:34,600 --> 00:42:37,759
Speaker 2: And I love Sataki. He's such a very like when

863
00:42:37,760 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 2: I've met him in media days, like a very soft

864
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:42,400
Speaker 2: spoken like a huge guy, but very soft spoken. So

865
00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:45,600
Speaker 2: I'm really happy. But I think the plan is Chase

866
00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:48,120
Speaker 2: Roberts through the air. Roberts was the sole touchdown in

867
00:42:48,160 --> 00:42:51,120
Speaker 2: Week eleven against the Red Raiders. Texa Tech was shredded

868
00:42:51,120 --> 00:42:52,960
Speaker 2: through the air against Arizona State. Go back and watch

869
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:55,600
Speaker 2: the film what Sam Levit did. He had six explosive passes,

870
00:42:56,080 --> 00:42:58,040
Speaker 2: five trips to the red zone. So I think this

871
00:42:58,200 --> 00:43:00,480
Speaker 2: comes down to Bear Bachmeyer's arm and that's the only

872
00:43:00,520 --> 00:43:01,960
Speaker 2: way you're gonna get it down. And by the way,

873
00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:04,960
Speaker 2: Bear as a fifty six percent success rate against Cover three,

874
00:43:05,000 --> 00:43:07,480
Speaker 2: which is all Texas Tech shows. So if BYU decides

875
00:43:07,480 --> 00:43:09,319
Speaker 2: we're going to light up Chase Roberts, I think that's

876
00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:10,560
Speaker 2: how they get down the field and get into the

877
00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:14,200
Speaker 2: scoring position. Nothing's coming out of that run game. That

878
00:43:14,280 --> 00:43:17,680
Speaker 2: defensive interior Aj Holmes, he had his highest tackle amount

879
00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:20,360
Speaker 2: against BYU. Dominate the Cougar's ground game. You're just not

880
00:43:20,440 --> 00:43:22,959
Speaker 2: going to pull off inside zone here on the other side,

881
00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:28,400
Speaker 2: You're right. McGuire was really pretty pissed off about the

882
00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:31,320
Speaker 2: red zone scoring against BYU. They had seven trips of

883
00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:34,239
Speaker 2: the red zone, two tds and four field goals. Like

884
00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:36,879
Speaker 2: they're just suffering way too many field goals. Since then,

885
00:43:38,080 --> 00:43:41,200
Speaker 2: they've had a crazy amount. They bumped the red zone

886
00:43:41,239 --> 00:43:44,680
Speaker 2: TD scoring all the way up to eighty ninth. Twelve

887
00:43:44,760 --> 00:43:47,320
Speaker 2: tds and fourteen attempts over the last two games against

888
00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:51,600
Speaker 2: the defenses of UCF and West Virginia like twelve tds

889
00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:54,000
Speaker 2: and the last fourteen red zone attempts just to boost

890
00:43:54,080 --> 00:43:57,320
Speaker 2: that number up to eighty ninth. In the season, BYU's

891
00:43:57,360 --> 00:43:59,719
Speaker 2: defense is top ten and red zone scoring and top

892
00:43:59,800 --> 00:44:02,920
Speaker 2: ten in an opponent red zone TV rate. I think

893
00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:06,040
Speaker 2: there's a reason Texas Tech got seven red zone trips

894
00:44:06,200 --> 00:44:08,480
Speaker 2: and we're only able to convert to two touchdowns. It's

895
00:44:08,480 --> 00:44:10,399
Speaker 2: because BYU is pretty good and in the red zone

896
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:12,640
Speaker 2: on defense. I think that's going to happen here. I

897
00:44:12,800 --> 00:44:14,920
Speaker 2: like to be I like BYU to cover. I think

898
00:44:14,960 --> 00:44:17,560
Speaker 2: BYU has a shot to make this close. I prow

899
00:44:17,719 --> 00:44:20,239
Speaker 2: I power rated seven. I know I'm way off other

900
00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:22,960
Speaker 2: projections out there that around eleven and fourteen and whatnot,

901
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:25,800
Speaker 2: but I think BYU has has learned from their mistakes.

902
00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:26,759
Speaker 2: I think you're right.

903
00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:27,040
Speaker 1: There's this.

904
00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:29,279
Speaker 2: I mean, Aaron Rodgers dials up trick plays on offense

905
00:44:29,320 --> 00:44:29,759
Speaker 2: all the time.

906
00:44:30,080 --> 00:44:33,200
Speaker 1: Parker kingstons the ball in space, the creative ways.

907
00:44:33,000 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 2: To Cameron Dickey. I said this, Cameron Dicky and Jacoby Williams.

908
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:38,600
Speaker 2: They lead the rushing attack for Texas tack but they're

909
00:44:38,680 --> 00:44:40,880
Speaker 2: ninety six in line yards and they're and they're not

910
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:43,960
Speaker 2: even top fifty in the explosives. Like it's all highlight

911
00:44:44,080 --> 00:44:46,920
Speaker 2: yards and BYU is going to be able to contain

912
00:44:47,000 --> 00:44:50,560
Speaker 2: that a little bit. So I like BYU here. I'm

913
00:44:50,600 --> 00:44:52,319
Speaker 2: not saying they're upsetting, but I think it is way

914
00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:53,320
Speaker 2: closer than what the spread is.

915
00:44:54,040 --> 00:45:01,239
Speaker 1: How about conspiracy theory Big twelve b YU gets get

916
00:45:01,280 --> 00:45:02,120
Speaker 1: two teams.

917
00:45:01,840 --> 00:45:05,000
Speaker 2: In brett Or Mark would he would do everything in

918
00:45:05,040 --> 00:45:07,760
Speaker 2: the world to get two teams at it and pound

919
00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:10,160
Speaker 2: his chest. Look at the Big twelve.

920
00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:15,359
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the SEC Championship. Can

921
00:45:15,840 --> 00:45:21,640
Speaker 1: Kirby finally get over the Alabama hump? It has been

922
00:45:22,000 --> 00:45:24,600
Speaker 1: a problem mean Kirby against ranked teams. He's thirty six

923
00:45:24,640 --> 00:45:27,239
Speaker 1: and twenty two against the spread sixty two percent. Only

924
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:31,080
Speaker 1: Urban Meyers returned more profit for betters against ranked teams

925
00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:33,800
Speaker 1: over the past twenty years. However, he's just three and

926
00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:35,880
Speaker 1: five against the spread and one and seven straight up

927
00:45:35,880 --> 00:45:39,920
Speaker 1: against Alabama al Dubor. He's been amazing also against rank teams,

928
00:45:40,360 --> 00:45:42,440
Speaker 1: sixteen to five and two against the spread, covering by

929
00:45:42,440 --> 00:45:45,480
Speaker 1: about six points per game seventy six percent. So in

930
00:45:45,560 --> 00:45:47,480
Speaker 1: the first meeting, I went back and watched it today

931
00:45:47,920 --> 00:45:49,320
Speaker 1: at Georgia should have won. I think they were the

932
00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:52,719
Speaker 1: better team, but Alabama jumped on him early then didn't

933
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:56,040
Speaker 1: score in the second halfep Georgia would have averaged eight

934
00:45:56,080 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 1: yards per play and won the game if Taylor didn't

935
00:45:59,239 --> 00:46:02,160
Speaker 1: drop a wide open and bomb in that game. Georgia

936
00:46:02,200 --> 00:46:04,279
Speaker 1: also blew up block, didn't get a fourth and one late,

937
00:46:04,360 --> 00:46:06,560
Speaker 1: didn't kick the field goal to tie it. By the way,

938
00:46:06,600 --> 00:46:09,240
Speaker 1: speaking the field goals, Georgia will have a substantial special

939
00:46:09,280 --> 00:46:12,320
Speaker 1: team's advantage in this game. One of the best punters,

940
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:14,960
Speaker 1: one of the best kickers. Alabama has had some issues

941
00:46:14,960 --> 00:46:18,759
Speaker 1: on special teams, so maybe that's the difference. There's also

942
00:46:18,840 --> 00:46:20,960
Speaker 1: some injuries worth it ing. Jam Miller doesn't look like

943
00:46:21,000 --> 00:46:24,200
Speaker 1: he's gonna play your boy Kuavos, who's very important at

944
00:46:24,200 --> 00:46:30,840
Speaker 1: tight end. Lt Overton is out and I'm not sure that.

945
00:46:32,120 --> 00:46:35,840
Speaker 1: I'm just not sure that Ty Simpson's fully healthy.

946
00:46:36,560 --> 00:46:38,600
Speaker 2: Oh well, I mean his on target rate is dipping

947
00:46:38,680 --> 00:46:39,480
Speaker 2: week by week by week.

948
00:46:39,520 --> 00:46:43,439
Speaker 1: And look at his turnover worthy play rate. Yeah, they've

949
00:46:43,480 --> 00:46:45,319
Speaker 1: been working on his since the South Carolin Again, they're

950
00:46:45,320 --> 00:46:47,800
Speaker 1: always working on his back. I'm just not sure his

951
00:46:47,920 --> 00:46:50,359
Speaker 1: back is healthy. I'm not sure he's healthy and it's

952
00:46:50,520 --> 00:46:54,239
Speaker 1: impacting their offense. Ryan Williams is also a ghost now.

953
00:46:56,719 --> 00:46:58,759
Speaker 1: I think he's lost his confidence. They also play him

954
00:46:58,760 --> 00:47:01,560
Speaker 1: in the slot too often. They did this. Grubbed did

955
00:47:01,600 --> 00:47:04,440
Speaker 1: this with JSN. Not to talk about the NFL too much,

956
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:06,719
Speaker 1: but the JSM was in the slot all of last year.

957
00:47:07,640 --> 00:47:10,960
Speaker 1: This year, Seattle moved him outside and he's turned into

958
00:47:11,040 --> 00:47:13,560
Speaker 1: the best receiver in the NFL. Ryan Williams last year

959
00:47:13,640 --> 00:47:15,160
Speaker 1: was in the slot like fifteen percent of the time.

960
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:18,360
Speaker 1: This year it's like fifty. Yeah, he's also lost his confidence.

961
00:47:18,920 --> 00:47:21,239
Speaker 2: Well, you know, l what's that he's banged up and

962
00:47:21,280 --> 00:47:22,880
Speaker 2: that makes you scared to go over the middle, right,

963
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:24,839
Speaker 2: he was what was that a hip injury? That's bad

964
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:28,240
Speaker 2: for a slot yep. And I think he's better off outside.

965
00:47:29,320 --> 00:47:31,000
Speaker 2: But so Bama was banged up here, they were a

966
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:33,040
Speaker 2: much They were in a very physical game last week

967
00:47:33,040 --> 00:47:35,080
Speaker 2: against Auburn and they got out played in that game.

968
00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:39,120
Speaker 2: But we're pretty fortunate with turnovers, fourth downs.

969
00:47:40,800 --> 00:47:44,680
Speaker 1: And but here's what's so, I now you're the number.

970
00:47:45,120 --> 00:47:46,960
Speaker 1: You're not stealing with Georgia. I mean, Georgia was a

971
00:47:46,960 --> 00:47:48,960
Speaker 1: two and a half point favorite at home. They're now

972
00:47:49,000 --> 00:47:51,759
Speaker 1: two and a half point favorite in Atlanta. Now there's

973
00:47:51,760 --> 00:47:53,960
Speaker 1: probably be more Georgia fans it is in Atlanta. They

974
00:47:54,040 --> 00:47:56,560
Speaker 1: did just play in this stadium last week. So there

975
00:47:56,600 --> 00:47:59,680
Speaker 1: are some advantages, some inherent advantage. It's not you know,

976
00:47:59,719 --> 00:48:03,719
Speaker 1: it's they're playing an Athens though. But I do think

977
00:48:03,800 --> 00:48:07,640
Speaker 1: I do think Georgia wins this game. However, here are

978
00:48:07,680 --> 00:48:12,600
Speaker 1: some of my thoughts. One, what what the fuck happened

979
00:48:12,600 --> 00:48:16,480
Speaker 1: to the Georgia offense last week? I get Drew Bobo

980
00:48:16,600 --> 00:48:19,279
Speaker 1: went out their starting center and they couldn't run the

981
00:48:19,320 --> 00:48:22,200
Speaker 1: ball after that, which is concerning. They're going to be

982
00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:25,480
Speaker 1: working on different potential center options this week. They're working

983
00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:27,000
Speaker 1: on a couple of different ones. We'll see how that

984
00:48:27,080 --> 00:48:31,680
Speaker 1: plays out. Bobo in the first meeting controlled Tim Keenan throughout,

985
00:48:31,960 --> 00:48:34,920
Speaker 1: and Georgia did whatever wanted on the ground and you

986
00:48:35,040 --> 00:48:38,800
Speaker 1: can run on Alabama. Alabama, by the way, is not

987
00:48:38,880 --> 00:48:39,959
Speaker 1: being able to run the ball at all.

988
00:48:39,960 --> 00:48:43,440
Speaker 2: On direct takes plans happening here.

989
00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:46,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, so if Simpson's not healthy, you don't play with us.

990
00:48:46,560 --> 00:48:46,799
Speaker 2: You don't.

991
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:51,759
Speaker 1: Ryan Williams is a ghost. I don't think. I'm not

992
00:48:51,840 --> 00:48:53,920
Speaker 1: sure that Alabama can consistently move it through the air.

993
00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:56,960
Speaker 1: Georgia does a good job of limiting explosives. Now, where

994
00:48:57,000 --> 00:48:59,960
Speaker 1: you can attack Georgia is like through the intermediary range.

995
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:02,399
Speaker 1: Is their linebackers to say, through their zone coverages. That's

996
00:49:02,400 --> 00:49:04,600
Speaker 1: why Alabama was They were dominant on third downs. That's

997
00:49:04,600 --> 00:49:06,200
Speaker 1: where they attacked the first meeting. I expected them to

998
00:49:06,239 --> 00:49:10,920
Speaker 1: attack there again this meeting. But is Bobo that important?

999
00:49:10,920 --> 00:49:13,000
Speaker 1: But also why couldn't Georgia throw the ball in Georgia Tech.

1000
00:49:13,000 --> 00:49:15,440
Speaker 1: It was really weird. I went back, was watched some

1001
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:18,160
Speaker 1: of that game and like there was no one open

1002
00:49:18,200 --> 00:49:20,040
Speaker 1: a lot. It was very weird because the Georgia offense

1003
00:49:20,120 --> 00:49:22,279
Speaker 1: was trending up and that was on a fast track.

1004
00:49:22,400 --> 00:49:26,800
Speaker 1: That game has my head. I just did a pickle.

1005
00:49:28,320 --> 00:49:30,680
Speaker 1: I really don't know what to make of it. But

1006
00:49:31,719 --> 00:49:34,239
Speaker 1: what I do know, based on history, how this game

1007
00:49:34,280 --> 00:49:36,000
Speaker 1: is going to play out. We alluded to this on

1008
00:49:36,120 --> 00:49:40,399
Speaker 1: a recap episode. If you go back over the past

1009
00:49:40,480 --> 00:49:44,080
Speaker 1: two seasons and you look at Georgia against the top

1010
00:49:44,160 --> 00:49:48,600
Speaker 1: of the mid to top of the SEC, they've gone

1011
00:49:48,640 --> 00:49:52,320
Speaker 1: ten and three with a plus eighty six point differential

1012
00:49:53,560 --> 00:49:58,560
Speaker 1: in thirteen games we removed Mississippi State and Kentucky. In

1013
00:49:58,680 --> 00:50:01,359
Speaker 1: those games, they went three and ten in the first

1014
00:50:01,440 --> 00:50:07,319
Speaker 1: quarter with a minus sixty point differential in the first half,

1015
00:50:07,760 --> 00:50:12,080
Speaker 1: three eight and two with a minus twenty six point differential.

1016
00:50:12,360 --> 00:50:15,800
Speaker 1: So basically, in those thirteen games against quality SEC opponents,

1017
00:50:15,920 --> 00:50:19,239
Speaker 1: they're ten and three, but they only let it after

1018
00:50:19,320 --> 00:50:22,319
Speaker 1: the first quarter three times they only let it the half.

1019
00:50:22,600 --> 00:50:25,920
Speaker 1: Three times. They were down by an average of five

1020
00:50:25,960 --> 00:50:27,720
Speaker 1: points at the end of the first quarter, two points

1021
00:50:27,760 --> 00:50:30,080
Speaker 1: at the end of the first half, and they won

1022
00:50:30,239 --> 00:50:34,880
Speaker 1: those games by an average of nine points. They basically

1023
00:50:34,920 --> 00:50:37,240
Speaker 1: outscored all those teams that they were down by sixty

1024
00:50:37,320 --> 00:50:39,680
Speaker 1: points in the first quarter by over one hundred and

1025
00:50:39,760 --> 00:50:43,840
Speaker 1: ten points in the second half. Alabama, why is that?

1026
00:50:43,880 --> 00:50:47,560
Speaker 1: Because Kirbys wants the best in game adjuster in the sport. Alabama,

1027
00:50:47,600 --> 00:50:51,240
Speaker 1: on the other side, take their games against sec quality competition.

1028
00:50:51,280 --> 00:50:56,359
Speaker 1: Of the past two years, they played sixteen teams ten

1029
00:50:57,120 --> 00:51:01,480
Speaker 1: four and two in the first quarter up by fifty points,

1030
00:51:02,920 --> 00:51:06,080
Speaker 1: so on average they're up. We're comparing apples toffits a year,

1031
00:51:06,440 --> 00:51:08,720
Speaker 1: they're up by about a field goal per game on average.

1032
00:51:08,920 --> 00:51:11,560
Speaker 1: At the end of the first half twelve three and one,

1033
00:51:11,680 --> 00:51:15,080
Speaker 1: they've led in twelve twelve times. In those sixteen games

1034
00:51:16,120 --> 00:51:18,359
Speaker 1: by one hundred and seventeen points. They're up by about

1035
00:51:18,440 --> 00:51:20,120
Speaker 1: seven and a half points per game on average into

1036
00:51:20,120 --> 00:51:22,840
Speaker 1: the first half. What were the record in those games

1037
00:51:23,040 --> 00:51:25,880
Speaker 1: twelve and four They won by one hundred and fifteen

1038
00:51:25,880 --> 00:51:27,880
Speaker 1: points per game, which means in those games they're outscored

1039
00:51:27,920 --> 00:51:31,080
Speaker 1: by two points in the second half in total, So

1040
00:51:31,200 --> 00:51:33,200
Speaker 1: what does that mean? Just like we saw in the

1041
00:51:34,280 --> 00:51:37,719
Speaker 1: Alabama Georgia games the last two years, Albama very good

1042
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:42,319
Speaker 1: in the scripted portion. Georgia then adjusts. This is all

1043
00:51:42,360 --> 00:51:45,960
Speaker 1: about Georgia Live. I mean, what else is there to say.

1044
00:51:46,000 --> 00:51:49,120
Speaker 1: I might ask some Georgia pregame somehow, but we looking

1045
00:51:49,160 --> 00:51:53,480
Speaker 1: for Georgia Live. Like the Alabama script's good, Georgia's adjustments

1046
00:51:53,680 --> 00:51:58,400
Speaker 1: are league and I think that they ultimately win this game.

1047
00:51:58,440 --> 00:51:59,759
Speaker 1: I think they a lot of success running the ball.

1048
00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:03,239
Speaker 1: The center position is the one that I'm going to

1049
00:52:03,280 --> 00:52:07,239
Speaker 1: be watching. But this Alabama team also can't Neither of

1050
00:52:07,280 --> 00:52:09,239
Speaker 1: these defenses can get real pressure. I mean, in the

1051
00:52:09,320 --> 00:52:12,360
Speaker 1: first meeting, Georgia blitz twenty one times only got pressure

1052
00:52:12,400 --> 00:52:16,439
Speaker 1: four times, So I don't think either quarterback is gonna

1053
00:52:16,480 --> 00:52:21,600
Speaker 1: have to worry about pressure. I think ultimately George's ability

1054
00:52:21,640 --> 00:52:23,880
Speaker 1: to run the ball is going to be the difference

1055
00:52:23,920 --> 00:52:27,120
Speaker 1: in this game. So I'll probably have a small position

1056
00:52:27,160 --> 00:52:30,919
Speaker 1: on Georgia pregame. But it's like I'm close to the market.

1057
00:52:30,960 --> 00:52:33,320
Speaker 1: I mean, you're not stealing with this price, but definitely

1058
00:52:33,320 --> 00:52:36,040
Speaker 1: looking for Georgia Live. Is there I mean, is there

1059
00:52:36,080 --> 00:52:37,600
Speaker 1: anything else to say about that? Oh?

1060
00:52:37,719 --> 00:52:40,520
Speaker 2: I mean, it's like the tweet I put out where

1061
00:52:40,520 --> 00:52:42,640
Speaker 2: I put the Action Network preview out is like, will

1062
00:52:42,719 --> 00:52:45,759
Speaker 2: Alabama Georgia breakscript? I mean, if you don't know what

1063
00:52:45,840 --> 00:52:48,120
Speaker 2: the script is in this game by now, it's Alabama

1064
00:52:48,120 --> 00:52:50,680
Speaker 2: in the first quarter, it's Georgia live in the second quarter.

1065
00:52:51,520 --> 00:52:54,040
Speaker 2: I have three official plays on this game that I

1066
00:52:54,120 --> 00:52:56,640
Speaker 2: got some money down on first half over twenty three

1067
00:52:56,680 --> 00:52:59,440
Speaker 2: and a half, Chauncey Bones over thirty one and a

1068
00:52:59,480 --> 00:53:02,560
Speaker 2: half rushing yards, and Isaiah Horden anytime TD. So let's

1069
00:53:02,600 --> 00:53:04,880
Speaker 2: talk about all of those plays. Because you know, Georgie's

1070
00:53:04,920 --> 00:53:06,920
Speaker 2: one to ten against Bama dating back to two thousand

1071
00:53:06,920 --> 00:53:08,520
Speaker 2: and eight. I don't know what kind of voodoo is

1072
00:53:08,560 --> 00:53:11,720
Speaker 2: going on with this program that dates back before Kirby.

1073
00:53:11,920 --> 00:53:13,880
Speaker 2: It's just something going on with the Bulldogs taking on

1074
00:53:13,920 --> 00:53:17,880
Speaker 2: the Crimson Tide. You know, the only win that they

1075
00:53:17,920 --> 00:53:21,040
Speaker 2: had was a national title game. And when you look

1076
00:53:21,080 --> 00:53:23,160
Speaker 2: at the bor versus Kirby head to head in two games,

1077
00:53:23,200 --> 00:53:26,440
Speaker 2: Bama's twenty eight to zero in first quarter scoring, and

1078
00:53:26,600 --> 00:53:28,120
Speaker 2: I think that just kind of goes with the fact

1079
00:53:28,160 --> 00:53:31,480
Speaker 2: that Georgia's neutral scoring differential in the first quarter and

1080
00:53:31,480 --> 00:53:32,719
Speaker 2: the rest of the game. They're great because they're a

1081
00:53:32,719 --> 00:53:34,879
Speaker 2: great end game adjuster. So I completely support you taking

1082
00:53:34,920 --> 00:53:37,560
Speaker 2: Georgia live. We did this a few weeks ago. You know,

1083
00:53:37,640 --> 00:53:39,680
Speaker 2: I'm going to do it again in the second quarter. Sometime.

1084
00:53:39,719 --> 00:53:41,319
Speaker 2: I'll figure out who has the middle eight and I'll

1085
00:53:41,320 --> 00:53:43,080
Speaker 2: play it accordingly. But there will be a live bet

1086
00:53:43,160 --> 00:53:45,880
Speaker 2: on Georgia. But listen, Colby Young is out for the

1087
00:53:45,920 --> 00:53:48,400
Speaker 2: Georgia offense. That's going to be a complete ground game

1088
00:53:48,440 --> 00:53:51,560
Speaker 2: because Zachariah Branch always catches the ball like his A

1089
00:53:51,719 --> 00:53:54,640
Speaker 2: dots like behind the line of scrimmage. So everything that

1090
00:53:54,800 --> 00:53:56,799
Speaker 2: Georgia produces is going to come from behind the line

1091
00:53:56,840 --> 00:53:59,120
Speaker 2: of scrimmage. You can't throw on Bama, but you can

1092
00:53:59,239 --> 00:54:03,800
Speaker 2: run on them. Bama cannot defend inside zone with twelve personnel,

1093
00:54:03,880 --> 00:54:07,640
Speaker 2: and Georgia is running that more and more. Stockton Bowens Fraser.

1094
00:54:07,719 --> 00:54:09,600
Speaker 2: They should dominate on the ground. Bama has not been

1095
00:54:09,600 --> 00:54:11,720
Speaker 2: able to defend that with two tight end sets.

1096
00:54:12,120 --> 00:54:15,120
Speaker 1: Don't fumble Fraser. Fraser also fumbled inside his own twenty

1097
00:54:15,200 --> 00:54:16,680
Speaker 1: was led to points for them in the first weekend.

1098
00:54:16,920 --> 00:54:18,560
Speaker 2: Why I have Bowenes over thirty one and a half

1099
00:54:18,600 --> 00:54:20,400
Speaker 2: running of rushing yards. By the way, Kirby said that

1100
00:54:20,440 --> 00:54:21,800
Speaker 2: he is going to be available to play, that he

1101
00:54:21,920 --> 00:54:23,920
Speaker 2: was dressed last week, could have played against Georgia Tech,

1102
00:54:23,920 --> 00:54:25,279
Speaker 2: he didn't. He's going to play in this game. Is

1103
00:54:25,320 --> 00:54:27,560
Speaker 2: he had over one hundred yards against Bama in the

1104
00:54:27,640 --> 00:54:30,120
Speaker 2: initial game and now his rushing totals thirty one and

1105
00:54:30,160 --> 00:54:32,200
Speaker 2: a half. I think that's predicated on the fact that

1106
00:54:32,920 --> 00:54:35,440
Speaker 2: oddsmakers might think he's still injured when he is going

1107
00:54:35,480 --> 00:54:38,960
Speaker 2: to play this week. Listen, Alabama struggles with mobile quarterbacks.

1108
00:54:39,080 --> 00:54:41,680
Speaker 2: We know that Ashton Daniels is the reason. I mean,

1109
00:54:41,680 --> 00:54:44,319
Speaker 2: he's a leading rusher. Scored a touchdown Lenora Seller, same

1110
00:54:44,360 --> 00:54:47,320
Speaker 2: thing for South Carolina. Well, now we got Gunner Stockton,

1111
00:54:47,400 --> 00:54:49,000
Speaker 2: and I don't know why for the world to me,

1112
00:54:49,080 --> 00:54:51,319
Speaker 2: Stockton only had three designed runs in their first game.

1113
00:54:51,400 --> 00:54:55,239
Speaker 2: That was his lowest rushing attempts from a designed run

1114
00:54:55,360 --> 00:54:59,080
Speaker 2: attempt perspective for Georgia the entire season. Were they purposely

1115
00:54:59,160 --> 00:54:59,839
Speaker 2: holding that back?

1116
00:55:00,160 --> 00:55:01,600
Speaker 1: Which is dumb because that's what do you want to

1117
00:55:01,640 --> 00:55:02,320
Speaker 1: attack them on it?

1118
00:55:02,560 --> 00:55:05,560
Speaker 2: Right? I don't know why Georgia held that back with Stockton,

1119
00:55:05,800 --> 00:55:08,520
Speaker 2: and so we'll see if that changes. But I like Boones.

1120
00:55:08,600 --> 00:55:10,439
Speaker 2: On the other side, it's like you mentioned that Ryan

1121
00:55:10,480 --> 00:55:14,880
Speaker 2: Williams as a ghost. You can't really knock what Isaiah

1122
00:55:14,880 --> 00:55:17,560
Speaker 2: Horden's doing with ty Simpson right three touchdowns last week

1123
00:55:17,560 --> 00:55:20,080
Speaker 2: in the ironbul But more importantly, Isaiah Horton had a

1124
00:55:20,160 --> 00:55:23,680
Speaker 2: touchdown against Georgia and their game earlier this season. And

1125
00:55:24,200 --> 00:55:26,440
Speaker 2: you know Williams and Horton their eight outs at twelve,

1126
00:55:27,080 --> 00:55:29,479
Speaker 2: Bernard's is four point four. I don't think Jormany Bernard

1127
00:55:29,600 --> 00:55:31,320
Speaker 2: is gonna get anything done here. And the reason is

1128
00:55:31,400 --> 00:55:33,800
Speaker 2: because Georgia is the number one tackling team in the

1129
00:55:33,880 --> 00:55:36,640
Speaker 2: nation per PFF and their top twenty and broken tackles

1130
00:55:36,680 --> 00:55:40,600
Speaker 2: allowed per sports infost solutions. And you're right now george

1131
00:55:40,680 --> 00:55:42,200
Speaker 2: is having this red zone issue where they want to

1132
00:55:42,239 --> 00:55:44,560
Speaker 2: be better in the red zone. They played Mississippi State,

1133
00:55:44,840 --> 00:55:46,879
Speaker 2: they had three reds Missisppi State had three red zone

1134
00:55:46,880 --> 00:55:49,480
Speaker 2: attempts and cash on the TV every single time the

1135
00:55:49,640 --> 00:55:52,480
Speaker 2: last few games. One red zone TD in the last

1136
00:55:52,480 --> 00:55:56,279
Speaker 2: three against Georgia, Tech, Charlotte and Texas. So I don't

1137
00:55:56,320 --> 00:55:58,319
Speaker 2: know if the Georgia defense is better in the red

1138
00:55:58,400 --> 00:56:00,240
Speaker 2: zone now. I expect them to be amped up here

1139
00:56:00,680 --> 00:56:02,560
Speaker 2: but I think Isaiah Horton is the only option that

1140
00:56:02,640 --> 00:56:04,800
Speaker 2: Ty Simpson has because they're not I mean, Jan Miller's

1141
00:56:04,840 --> 00:56:06,799
Speaker 2: questionable again, they're not running the ball.

1142
00:56:06,880 --> 00:56:08,279
Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna play. I don't think what

1143
00:56:08,480 --> 00:56:09,239
Speaker 1: else is playing either.

1144
00:56:09,400 --> 00:56:11,479
Speaker 2: I feel like Horton is the only option here to score.

1145
00:56:12,040 --> 00:56:13,560
Speaker 2: I feel like that's gonna be the only target. And

1146
00:56:13,600 --> 00:56:20,000
Speaker 2: by the way, the corner Horton absolutely abused Dalen Everett.

1147
00:56:20,080 --> 00:56:22,080
Speaker 2: Is that his name, Yeah, I mean absolutely abused the

1148
00:56:22,120 --> 00:56:24,680
Speaker 2: corner for Georgia, and I figured that's what's gonna happen here.

1149
00:56:24,880 --> 00:56:29,759
Speaker 1: So I'm curious to see what Georgia does with its

1150
00:56:30,760 --> 00:56:35,440
Speaker 1: cornerback rotations. I think that they've so I mean I

1151
00:56:35,640 --> 00:56:40,200
Speaker 1: I personally think that their best. Like Evert's gonna get

1152
00:56:40,239 --> 00:56:42,799
Speaker 1: drafted and scouts love him, but he's he's struggled this year,

1153
00:56:42,840 --> 00:56:44,880
Speaker 1: and you can beat him on like those intermediate routes.

1154
00:56:45,239 --> 00:56:47,200
Speaker 1: You can beat him on those comeback routes.

1155
00:56:46,920 --> 00:56:49,600
Speaker 2: That Simpson target him four times and they he allowed

1156
00:56:49,640 --> 00:56:51,520
Speaker 2: four catches and a lot of yards.

1157
00:56:51,640 --> 00:56:53,520
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna be He's best in the slot,

1158
00:56:54,480 --> 00:57:00,920
Speaker 1: and I think that they should put Robinson and Jones

1159
00:57:02,280 --> 00:57:07,320
Speaker 1: on the outside. Instead, they've been like rotating rob Robinson

1160
00:57:07,400 --> 00:57:09,319
Speaker 1: and Jones. But I've liked what I've seen for both

1161
00:57:09,360 --> 00:57:11,880
Speaker 1: of them. I think Everett's He's good in run defense,

1162
00:57:12,200 --> 00:57:14,080
Speaker 1: be good at and I think in the slot, I'm

1163
00:57:14,080 --> 00:57:16,720
Speaker 1: curious to see if they switched that up. Don't sleep

1164
00:57:16,760 --> 00:57:20,680
Speaker 1: on the special teams out Georgia huge advantage there. I

1165
00:57:20,800 --> 00:57:22,720
Speaker 1: think they finally get the monkey off their back. But

1166
00:57:23,360 --> 00:57:25,280
Speaker 1: that I mean, the price I think is pretty good,

1167
00:57:25,320 --> 00:57:27,920
Speaker 1: but that is pretty banged up and I'm not I

1168
00:57:28,040 --> 00:57:32,320
Speaker 1: don't think ty Simpson is fully healthy, and that's part

1169
00:57:32,360 --> 00:57:34,919
Speaker 1: of what some of their offensive struggles that we've seen

1170
00:57:35,120 --> 00:57:38,240
Speaker 1: that we saw against Auburn. And you have the Williamsting

1171
00:57:38,480 --> 00:57:40,040
Speaker 1: Kuavas is super important too.

1172
00:57:40,160 --> 00:57:43,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know that was that was a tough sit

1173
00:57:43,960 --> 00:57:48,800
Speaker 2: last week. But uh look, I think I think Quaves

1174
00:57:49,120 --> 00:57:51,520
Speaker 2: if he's out again, I think Horton is definitely anytime TV,

1175
00:57:51,600 --> 00:57:53,360
Speaker 2: no matter what. He has been the red zone factor

1176
00:57:53,440 --> 00:57:55,920
Speaker 2: here and that's the that's Alabama's only offense is through

1177
00:57:55,920 --> 00:57:57,880
Speaker 2: the air. And it's a first half over too. I mean,

1178
00:57:57,920 --> 00:58:00,560
Speaker 2: these teams go crazy in the same after they made

1179
00:58:00,560 --> 00:58:02,480
Speaker 2: in the second quarter, the scoring just pours in.

1180
00:58:02,800 --> 00:58:05,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the board said that. Earlier in the week,

1181
00:58:05,080 --> 00:58:06,840
Speaker 1: he said he didn't think Milan and Quails are going

1182
00:58:06,880 --> 00:58:11,439
Speaker 1: to play, but they're questionable. Overton and Collins are out.

1183
00:58:12,640 --> 00:58:14,400
Speaker 2: Even if Miller plays that he's not gonna move the

1184
00:58:14,440 --> 00:58:15,280
Speaker 2: ball on Georgia.

1185
00:58:15,400 --> 00:58:19,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're not going to run the ball regardless. I

1186
00:58:19,320 --> 00:58:21,080
Speaker 1: don't think Quaylas is gonna play though, based on what

1187
00:58:21,120 --> 00:58:22,640
Speaker 1: he's saw, but I don't know for sure. All right,

1188
00:58:22,680 --> 00:58:25,919
Speaker 1: let's move on to the ACC Championship rematch from earlier

1189
00:58:25,960 --> 00:58:29,080
Speaker 1: this year. At the game where Virginia dominated Duke, Duke

1190
00:58:29,240 --> 00:58:34,920
Speaker 1: was a five point home favorite, and now you know,

1191
00:58:35,160 --> 00:58:39,000
Speaker 1: a few weeks later, on a neutral field, Virginia is

1192
00:58:39,040 --> 00:58:42,840
Speaker 1: a four point favorite. But you could say maybe it's

1193
00:58:42,880 --> 00:58:46,400
Speaker 1: just by Virginia's playing its best football this season. Duke's

1194
00:58:46,400 --> 00:58:48,640
Speaker 1: been a mess all year. Their defense, I mean last week, yes,

1195
00:58:48,720 --> 00:58:51,600
Speaker 1: they beat wake Forest, that's because wake Farest beat themselves.

1196
00:58:51,680 --> 00:58:53,600
Speaker 1: Wake Forest went up and down the field. The Duke

1197
00:58:53,680 --> 00:58:56,440
Speaker 1: defense is a disaster. They can't do anything right. They

1198
00:58:56,480 --> 00:58:59,040
Speaker 1: can get sacks like they get pressured. They could create

1199
00:58:59,120 --> 00:59:01,200
Speaker 1: some negative plays, Butvirginia does a really good morse, does

1200
00:59:01,240 --> 00:59:04,000
Speaker 1: a really good job of avoiding sacks. And avoiding negative plays.

1201
00:59:04,400 --> 00:59:06,760
Speaker 1: The Virginia defense is playing really well. Their defensive lines

1202
00:59:06,760 --> 00:59:09,520
Speaker 1: playing really well. They can get after the quarterback Duke.

1203
00:59:09,560 --> 00:59:12,320
Speaker 1: The only thing Duke does well is is their passing attack,

1204
00:59:12,480 --> 00:59:14,280
Speaker 1: Like that, that's it. Men's is that a good season?

1205
00:59:14,680 --> 00:59:18,440
Speaker 1: But their defense is such a disaster. It's hard for

1206
00:59:18,520 --> 00:59:20,400
Speaker 1: me to get all the way to this number. But

1207
00:59:21,760 --> 00:59:24,640
Speaker 1: and Virginia might get all the calls. I don't have interest.

1208
00:59:24,880 --> 00:59:27,560
Speaker 1: Duke games are so dumb, Like one of these team's

1209
00:59:27,560 --> 00:59:30,480
Speaker 1: gonna have five turnovers, Like that's just how duke games work.

1210
00:59:30,480 --> 00:59:32,400
Speaker 1: There's gonna be like six fumbles and one team's gonna

1211
00:59:32,440 --> 00:59:37,880
Speaker 1: recover them all. I don't know. By the way, the

1212
00:59:38,040 --> 00:59:42,560
Speaker 1: Virginia they lost their stud linebacker Cam Robinson. Their numbers

1213
00:59:42,600 --> 00:59:44,960
Speaker 1: actually are better without him this year if you just

1214
00:59:45,040 --> 00:59:46,720
Speaker 1: for opponent. I think he's miss four or five games,

1215
00:59:46,760 --> 00:59:50,600
Speaker 1: which is interesting. But Duke has not gotten any better.

1216
00:59:50,680 --> 00:59:54,840
Speaker 1: They're just their defense is not never improved, it's getting worse,

1217
00:59:55,400 --> 01:00:00,880
Speaker 1: and Virginia is starting to ascend as the season late

1218
01:00:00,920 --> 01:00:03,680
Speaker 1: in the season here, so I don't have a strong feel.

1219
01:00:03,720 --> 01:00:06,520
Speaker 1: I do think both offenses moved the ball, but like

1220
01:00:06,680 --> 01:00:09,880
Speaker 1: Virginia is much more likelier to get stops here. What

1221
01:00:09,960 --> 01:00:11,680
Speaker 1: are you saying here in Duke Virginia. You're rolling with

1222
01:00:11,720 --> 01:00:14,320
Speaker 1: your your Duke boys. This is eight pm Eastern in

1223
01:00:14,440 --> 01:00:15,440
Speaker 1: Charlotte Neutral Field.

1224
01:00:15,600 --> 01:00:17,200
Speaker 2: No, I'm not gonna roll with Duke, and I'm only

1225
01:00:17,360 --> 01:00:19,480
Speaker 2: gonna be short with them because the handicap for me

1226
01:00:19,600 --> 01:00:22,200
Speaker 2: is not really on their side. I do have a

1227
01:00:23,600 --> 01:00:26,480
Speaker 2: Jeremiah Hazley anytime touchdown for Duke. The tight end for

1228
01:00:26,600 --> 01:00:29,240
Speaker 2: Duke has twenty two targets and three tds over the

1229
01:00:29,320 --> 01:00:31,440
Speaker 2: last four games. He has become the go to guy

1230
01:00:31,480 --> 01:00:34,280
Speaker 2: for MENSA. So I do like it anytime TD here

1231
01:00:34,400 --> 01:00:36,400
Speaker 2: on that side. But Duke's not gonna be able to

1232
01:00:36,440 --> 01:00:38,840
Speaker 2: run the ball at all against this Virginia defense, and so.

1233
01:00:39,160 --> 01:00:39,920
Speaker 1: It's all on mensa.

1234
01:00:40,280 --> 01:00:43,440
Speaker 2: The handicap. What I can get after mensa, Yeah, what

1235
01:00:43,600 --> 01:00:45,440
Speaker 2: I can see clearly in this game, because you're right,

1236
01:00:45,480 --> 01:00:47,520
Speaker 2: I'm there too. I make Virginia minus one and a half.

1237
01:00:47,680 --> 01:00:49,680
Speaker 2: I don't think it's that big. This is four. Thing

1238
01:00:49,840 --> 01:00:51,880
Speaker 2: is like a little beefy for me. But I don't

1239
01:00:51,880 --> 01:00:54,600
Speaker 2: think I can take Duke. Duke's defense has been an

1240
01:00:54,720 --> 01:00:58,400
Speaker 2: absolute train wreck. Last five opponents have averaged thirty four

1241
01:00:58,440 --> 01:01:01,880
Speaker 2: points six points per game. Rush explosive is leading the

1242
01:01:01,920 --> 01:01:05,040
Speaker 2: way for offense for Virginia. On offense here, Jamari Taylor

1243
01:01:05,440 --> 01:01:08,320
Speaker 2: twenty rushing attempts to exceed ten yards. That's going to

1244
01:01:08,360 --> 01:01:11,720
Speaker 2: happen here against Duke. Pure zone rate offense for Virginia

1245
01:01:12,320 --> 01:01:14,520
Speaker 2: two hundred and three attempts to the inside, one hundred

1246
01:01:14,520 --> 01:01:17,360
Speaker 2: and seventy eight to the outside, higher success rate than

1247
01:01:17,480 --> 01:01:20,120
Speaker 2: what Duke's defense has been able to produce. Here. Duke

1248
01:01:20,200 --> 01:01:22,680
Speaker 2: is one hundred and thirty first in defensive finishing drives.

1249
01:01:22,720 --> 01:01:24,640
Speaker 2: They give up four and a half points to every

1250
01:01:24,720 --> 01:01:28,120
Speaker 2: team that crosses their forty yard line. It is it

1251
01:01:28,280 --> 01:01:31,480
Speaker 2: is a Virginia team total over thirty and a half.

1252
01:01:32,240 --> 01:01:34,959
Speaker 2: And this is one of those things where I don't

1253
01:01:34,960 --> 01:01:37,360
Speaker 2: see a lot of defense being played. Duke can't stop

1254
01:01:37,440 --> 01:01:40,880
Speaker 2: what's happening on the ground. I just trust Virginia's offense

1255
01:01:41,040 --> 01:01:45,120
Speaker 2: much more, and I can't really handicap what Duke is

1256
01:01:45,160 --> 01:01:47,880
Speaker 2: going to do on offense versus Virginia's defense. So I

1257
01:01:48,080 --> 01:01:51,600
Speaker 2: like Jemiah Hasley anytime touchdown for Duke, but I think

1258
01:01:51,680 --> 01:01:53,880
Speaker 2: Virginia scores at least thirty one points in this game.

1259
01:01:54,720 --> 01:01:56,760
Speaker 1: Also, there is a world where if Duke is winning

1260
01:01:57,480 --> 01:02:00,960
Speaker 1: big because they're going up against this GAMU, they're going

1261
01:02:01,000 --> 01:02:02,880
Speaker 1: to want to keep their foot on the gas and

1262
01:02:02,960 --> 01:02:05,320
Speaker 1: so over Jay, I know, but I'm saying like, even

1263
01:02:05,320 --> 01:02:07,920
Speaker 1: if they're getting blown out, then Virginia's gonna get even

1264
01:02:07,960 --> 01:02:09,840
Speaker 1: more possessions. It's not like Duke's going to go up

1265
01:02:09,880 --> 01:02:13,880
Speaker 1: and then try to sit on the lead. Yeah. So

1266
01:02:14,280 --> 01:02:17,680
Speaker 1: interesting game in Charlotte that will have college football play affifications.

1267
01:02:17,720 --> 01:02:20,800
Speaker 1: And then finally we have Ohio State Indiana. Oh boy

1268
01:02:21,000 --> 01:02:23,720
Speaker 1: in Indianapolis, big game for who's just for everybody, just

1269
01:02:23,760 --> 01:02:24,720
Speaker 1: for all callers out there.

1270
01:02:24,800 --> 01:02:27,920
Speaker 2: We are having voicemail review with our live reaction to

1271
01:02:27,960 --> 01:02:30,480
Speaker 2: college Wale playoffs. So if you're upset about this pick here,

1272
01:02:30,520 --> 01:02:32,200
Speaker 2: you can call them. Bitch me out because you know

1273
01:02:32,240 --> 01:02:33,080
Speaker 2: what's side. I'm going.

1274
01:02:34,600 --> 01:02:36,640
Speaker 1: Ohio State four to four and a half point favorite

1275
01:02:37,360 --> 01:02:41,080
Speaker 1: total forty eight, forty seven and a half. This game

1276
01:02:41,120 --> 01:02:43,120
Speaker 1: will be Indianapolis Big day for Hoosiers fans. You got

1277
01:02:43,160 --> 01:02:46,320
Speaker 1: the big basketball game, do a little double dip in

1278
01:02:46,440 --> 01:02:51,160
Speaker 1: the Indie against Louisville, and then the Big Ten championship.

1279
01:02:52,600 --> 01:02:56,040
Speaker 1: So I'm close to market here, but I think I'm

1280
01:02:56,040 --> 01:02:59,400
Speaker 1: going to play Indiana, and it's more on a gut

1281
01:02:59,480 --> 01:03:02,040
Speaker 1: feel and its confience. Championship weekend, I'm gonna be close

1282
01:03:02,120 --> 01:03:05,960
Speaker 1: to most of these numbers. I think Indiana could have

1283
01:03:07,120 --> 01:03:10,000
Speaker 1: some intangible advantages that could be worth I don't know

1284
01:03:10,040 --> 01:03:13,880
Speaker 1: a point number one. This game means so much more

1285
01:03:13,920 --> 01:03:17,560
Speaker 1: to them, right the Big Ten Championship. This is like

1286
01:03:17,720 --> 01:03:22,200
Speaker 1: prove that we belong for sure. You're going to get

1287
01:03:22,280 --> 01:03:26,000
Speaker 1: more of like their best play, so to speak. Whereas

1288
01:03:26,040 --> 01:03:28,080
Speaker 1: Ohio State they don't really care and they're coming off

1289
01:03:28,120 --> 01:03:32,240
Speaker 1: the Michigan win, which they haven't had and it was

1290
01:03:32,280 --> 01:03:36,480
Speaker 1: emotional and maybe there's a bit of an emotional letdown. Also,

1291
01:03:36,680 --> 01:03:38,800
Speaker 1: this is in Indianapolis. You think you'll have State fans

1292
01:03:38,800 --> 01:03:40,240
Speaker 1: are really good wan to go. No, they're gonna get

1293
01:03:40,240 --> 01:03:42,640
Speaker 1: tickets to the College Wall playoff games. They care about

1294
01:03:42,720 --> 01:03:45,840
Speaker 1: national titles. So this crowd will be I don't know,

1295
01:03:45,960 --> 01:03:49,560
Speaker 1: seventy five percent Indiana. It's a huge deal for Indiana. Yep,

1296
01:03:49,680 --> 01:03:54,600
Speaker 1: maybe that the noise, maybe that swings a call or two. Also,

1297
01:03:54,800 --> 01:03:58,800
Speaker 1: Indiana's proven that they can at least that they now

1298
01:03:58,880 --> 01:04:00,920
Speaker 1: can compete in the trenches. They show that at Oregon

1299
01:04:01,640 --> 01:04:04,440
Speaker 1: Decise Point at Oregon Last year they couldn't do that,

1300
01:04:04,800 --> 01:04:10,000
Speaker 1: and that Oregon win is aged well. And the other

1301
01:04:10,080 --> 01:04:11,600
Speaker 1: thing is that this because is a close game. I

1302
01:04:12,120 --> 01:04:13,760
Speaker 1: don't mind the unders well. I mean Ohio State. I

1303
01:04:13,800 --> 01:04:15,960
Speaker 1: expect them again to operate slowly. I mean maybe now

1304
01:04:16,000 --> 01:04:19,280
Speaker 1: on a fast track. They just on unleashed tape and

1305
01:04:19,400 --> 01:04:23,280
Speaker 1: they unleash Jeremiah Smith and they just throw it all over.

1306
01:04:23,560 --> 01:04:25,600
Speaker 1: But I think they're still There's look, they've played basically

1307
01:04:25,680 --> 01:04:27,920
Speaker 1: like two fewer games in everyone in the country talk

1308
01:04:27,960 --> 01:04:30,200
Speaker 1: about load management. They've handled it perfectly. They're about the

1309
01:04:30,240 --> 01:04:32,280
Speaker 1: college twelve playff so I expect them to operate. So

1310
01:04:32,440 --> 01:04:34,480
Speaker 1: Indiana's not fast. I expect both. I mean the out

1311
01:04:34,480 --> 01:04:35,520
Speaker 1: of state defense is amazing.

1312
01:04:36,600 --> 01:04:37,240
Speaker 2: I mean they're both slow.

1313
01:04:37,320 --> 01:04:39,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, they both are slow. I think the points will

1314
01:04:39,040 --> 01:04:41,560
Speaker 1: be at a premium, so that makes the dog a

1315
01:04:41,600 --> 01:04:44,680
Speaker 1: little bit more intriguing. The one thing Indiana has been

1316
01:04:44,760 --> 01:04:47,560
Speaker 1: tested late in games, Ohio State hasn't. So that's the

1317
01:04:47,600 --> 01:04:49,520
Speaker 1: one question I have to them. I'd bet that Ryan

1318
01:04:49,600 --> 01:04:51,440
Speaker 1: Day would love that this game is close at the end.

1319
01:04:51,800 --> 01:04:53,640
Speaker 1: I would love it for saying to get some experience,

1320
01:04:53,640 --> 01:04:54,840
Speaker 1: and they got a close game of the minute to go.

1321
01:04:55,160 --> 01:04:57,800
Speaker 1: I mean Indiana. We've seen the Mendoza at Penn State,

1322
01:04:58,080 --> 01:05:01,920
Speaker 1: the Iowa game. They've had some clutch drives in tight

1323
01:05:02,040 --> 01:05:05,080
Speaker 1: so we don't know how saying is going to be

1324
01:05:05,520 --> 01:05:08,720
Speaker 1: in those situations. This will be the best, the biggest

1325
01:05:08,720 --> 01:05:10,760
Speaker 1: test for the Ohio State defense as well. I mean,

1326
01:05:11,000 --> 01:05:13,240
Speaker 1: they played Washington, who we've seen fold over and over

1327
01:05:13,240 --> 01:05:18,040
Speaker 1: again against the top tier defenses. Michigan's offense on the road,

1328
01:05:18,120 --> 01:05:20,160
Speaker 1: now get them out of here. And then Texas that's

1329
01:05:20,160 --> 01:05:22,360
Speaker 1: the only the Week one Texas offense is a mess

1330
01:05:22,400 --> 01:05:24,280
Speaker 1: and they're not even that good. This will be the

1331
01:05:24,280 --> 01:05:27,120
Speaker 1: biggest test. Now, Kim Mendoza avoid turning the ball over.

1332
01:05:28,280 --> 01:05:30,640
Speaker 1: I mean, he could have thrown a couple of picks

1333
01:05:30,680 --> 01:05:34,200
Speaker 1: against Purdue. He saw him. He didn't look great against

1334
01:05:34,200 --> 01:05:37,280
Speaker 1: Penn State. But this offense, they should get Dree Revans

1335
01:05:37,280 --> 01:05:41,160
Speaker 1: back on the offensive line. Their defense is now healthy. Sarah,

1336
01:05:41,880 --> 01:05:43,960
Speaker 1: this is a very good offense. These are top two.

1337
01:05:44,200 --> 01:05:47,560
Speaker 1: We're gonna talking about these teams a lot next week.

1338
01:05:48,400 --> 01:05:50,919
Speaker 1: They're gonna get buys. But I think this just means

1339
01:05:50,920 --> 01:05:53,440
Speaker 1: a little bit more to Indiana. So maybe you get

1340
01:05:54,040 --> 01:05:55,760
Speaker 1: a little bit more of the kitchen sink. You're gonna

1341
01:05:55,760 --> 01:05:59,040
Speaker 1: have the crowd. I think some intangibles here favor Indiana.

1342
01:05:59,720 --> 01:06:02,160
Speaker 1: So I'm going to play them. Nothing big. It some

1343
01:06:02,240 --> 01:06:04,160
Speaker 1: pretty close number, but there's some foign ass out there.

1344
01:06:04,160 --> 01:06:05,520
Speaker 1: I'm going to play them. Can I put it on

1345
01:06:05,600 --> 01:06:06,960
Speaker 1: the board? Yeah, you can put on the board.

1346
01:06:06,960 --> 01:06:08,800
Speaker 2: I took Indiana at six, I'd played again at four.

1347
01:06:09,360 --> 01:06:12,160
Speaker 2: I make it four. But I think there's something you

1348
01:06:12,240 --> 01:06:14,120
Speaker 2: can't handicap and you can't put in a spreadsheet, and

1349
01:06:14,160 --> 01:06:16,200
Speaker 2: it's the ability to punch another team in the face

1350
01:06:16,280 --> 01:06:18,240
Speaker 2: and be physical with them. And we've seen Indiana go

1351
01:06:18,280 --> 01:06:19,600
Speaker 2: on the road and do that to Orgon, I mean,

1352
01:06:19,720 --> 01:06:20,360
Speaker 2: manhandle them.

1353
01:06:21,320 --> 01:06:24,880
Speaker 1: And I think there's just a thing where they're different

1354
01:06:25,040 --> 01:06:25,760
Speaker 1: trenches this year.

1355
01:06:25,920 --> 01:06:28,000
Speaker 2: They are because you and I the beginning the beginning

1356
01:06:28,000 --> 01:06:29,640
Speaker 2: of the season, the narrative from you and I was,

1357
01:06:29,880 --> 01:06:31,920
Speaker 2: do we have a different power rating for Indiana when

1358
01:06:31,920 --> 01:06:34,440
Speaker 2: they face top ten teams that can get physical with them. Well,

1359
01:06:34,640 --> 01:06:37,360
Speaker 2: now they're the ones that are bullying people over and

1360
01:06:37,480 --> 01:06:40,200
Speaker 2: I just don't see one of their running backs getting

1361
01:06:40,240 --> 01:06:43,320
Speaker 2: stopped with what they use on the ground. So no

1362
01:06:43,560 --> 01:06:47,200
Speaker 2: team in the nation is in standard downs more than

1363
01:06:47,200 --> 01:06:50,040
Speaker 2: the Hoosiers. Nobody can knock them off schedule. They are

1364
01:06:50,120 --> 01:06:52,680
Speaker 2: always getting the required yards to stay in standard downs,

1365
01:06:52,720 --> 01:06:55,360
Speaker 2: whether that's second and seven, third and four, fourth and two.

1366
01:06:56,320 --> 01:06:58,600
Speaker 2: Now you look at what they run, right, there's a

1367
01:06:58,680 --> 01:07:00,760
Speaker 2: lot of zone read and there's a lot of man

1368
01:07:00,920 --> 01:07:03,200
Speaker 2: gap blocking from the offensive line. But they use two

1369
01:07:03,200 --> 01:07:06,120
Speaker 2: different running backs to do those. Roman Hemby is the

1370
01:07:06,160 --> 01:07:09,200
Speaker 2: zone read guy. Kaylan Black is the man gap blocking

1371
01:07:09,560 --> 01:07:12,560
Speaker 2: running back. They both average three point six yards after

1372
01:07:12,640 --> 01:07:15,320
Speaker 2: first contact they have. Both of them have combined for

1373
01:07:15,400 --> 01:07:19,360
Speaker 2: thirty eight carries over ten yards. This is a highly

1374
01:07:19,520 --> 01:07:25,440
Speaker 2: successful and explosive rushing attack, and that's what Siggs favors

1375
01:07:25,480 --> 01:07:27,800
Speaker 2: to do is run the ball. I don't think they

1376
01:07:27,880 --> 01:07:30,520
Speaker 2: want Mendoza throwing. He struggled down the stretch. Six of

1377
01:07:30,600 --> 01:07:32,960
Speaker 2: his nine turnover worthy plays have been in the last

1378
01:07:33,000 --> 01:07:35,560
Speaker 2: four games. So I think they need to stay in

1379
01:07:35,640 --> 01:07:38,720
Speaker 2: standard downs or they're in trouble. But the one back

1380
01:07:38,960 --> 01:07:43,200
Speaker 2: that should dominate is Kaylan Black. Ohio says numbers against

1381
01:07:43,240 --> 01:07:46,880
Speaker 2: man gap run blocks concepts is below fifty percent success.

1382
01:07:46,920 --> 01:07:50,280
Speaker 2: You're gonna saying that, I'm sorry. I think Kaylen Black

1383
01:07:50,400 --> 01:07:52,560
Speaker 2: is the key. Roman Hmby He's gonna have trouble with

1384
01:07:52,600 --> 01:07:55,040
Speaker 2: his zone read concepts. I think Black is gonna is

1385
01:07:55,120 --> 01:07:57,320
Speaker 2: gonna be able to dice them up when he lines

1386
01:07:57,400 --> 01:07:59,960
Speaker 2: up and the balls just handed off. Caleb Downs though

1387
01:08:00,880 --> 01:08:02,680
Speaker 2: some interesting numbers like he doesn't have as many tackles

1388
01:08:02,680 --> 01:08:04,360
Speaker 2: as last year. He has been an as active and

1389
01:08:04,400 --> 01:08:06,560
Speaker 2: you're kind of hearing that, But at the same time,

1390
01:08:06,600 --> 01:08:08,840
Speaker 2: he has the same number of stops right now that

1391
01:08:08,920 --> 01:08:12,840
Speaker 2: he had total last year. Now, stops is a measurement

1392
01:08:12,920 --> 01:08:15,480
Speaker 2: by PFF about a complete failure by the offense, which

1393
01:08:15,520 --> 01:08:17,680
Speaker 2: means can you tackle in space? And Caleb Downs is

1394
01:08:17,720 --> 01:08:20,200
Speaker 2: still that number one guy. I don't expect Indiana to

1395
01:08:20,280 --> 01:08:23,240
Speaker 2: have explosives here, but I expect Caylen Black to keep

1396
01:08:23,320 --> 01:08:26,679
Speaker 2: this Indiana offense in standard downs where they have completely thrived.

1397
01:08:27,520 --> 01:08:30,400
Speaker 2: The big question is is Julian's saying is he going

1398
01:08:30,439 --> 01:08:33,200
Speaker 2: to get roughed up? Because right now he has a

1399
01:08:33,240 --> 01:08:35,439
Speaker 2: one point four percent turnover worthy play rate and that

1400
01:08:35,960 --> 01:08:37,680
Speaker 2: goes up to only two point two percent when he's

1401
01:08:37,720 --> 01:08:39,960
Speaker 2: had pressure. But look at the teams that they've you know,

1402
01:08:40,280 --> 01:08:42,439
Speaker 2: tried to apply this pressure. It's going to be a

1403
01:08:42,479 --> 01:08:44,160
Speaker 2: different story, I think with Indiana. I mean, this is

1404
01:08:44,280 --> 01:08:46,759
Speaker 2: most havoc minded defense that they've faced, better than Michigan

1405
01:08:46,880 --> 01:08:49,920
Speaker 2: by far better than what Texas was probably in week one.

1406
01:08:51,439 --> 01:08:53,519
Speaker 2: You know, Jamiah Smith and Carnell tat a healthy are

1407
01:08:53,560 --> 01:08:54,800
Speaker 2: they going to be you know, is this just going

1408
01:08:54,840 --> 01:08:56,479
Speaker 2: to be a downfield attack or we're going to run

1409
01:08:56,520 --> 01:08:59,720
Speaker 2: Bo Jackson. He has become more explosive as of late.

1410
01:09:00,000 --> 01:09:02,120
Speaker 2: Some of his thirteen explosive runs have come in the

1411
01:09:02,200 --> 01:09:05,439
Speaker 2: last three games, So we'll see, you know what the

1412
01:09:05,520 --> 01:09:08,240
Speaker 2: plan of attack here. But the one way that you

1413
01:09:08,280 --> 01:09:11,439
Speaker 2: can attack Indiana where their defense has shown weakness, is

1414
01:09:11,479 --> 01:09:14,760
Speaker 2: a two tight end set and ground and pound. They

1415
01:09:14,800 --> 01:09:16,600
Speaker 2: have not been able to defend that. So are you

1416
01:09:16,760 --> 01:09:18,760
Speaker 2: flying it to Smith and Tait on the outside, or

1417
01:09:18,800 --> 01:09:21,560
Speaker 2: are you lining up two tight ends as blockers and

1418
01:09:21,760 --> 01:09:24,519
Speaker 2: running ground and pound with Zoneary Because that's what If

1419
01:09:24,560 --> 01:09:28,960
Speaker 2: heartline recognizes that, then that'll move the ball against Indiana.

1420
01:09:28,960 --> 01:09:31,439
Speaker 2: But I don't think that's what they're gonna do. I

1421
01:09:31,479 --> 01:09:33,080
Speaker 2: think the other thing that and I'm really I'm putting

1422
01:09:33,080 --> 01:09:35,479
Speaker 2: praise on Ohio State, like Julian Sayan has one of

1423
01:09:35,520 --> 01:09:38,120
Speaker 2: the highest numbers of success rate against cover two. College

1424
01:09:38,200 --> 01:09:40,880
Speaker 2: quarterbacks can't throw against cover two. Indiana plays a ton

1425
01:09:41,000 --> 01:09:43,960
Speaker 2: of cover two. So I think, really We're gonna find

1426
01:09:43,960 --> 01:09:45,599
Speaker 2: out what Julian Sayan is all about. I don't think

1427
01:09:45,600 --> 01:09:47,040
Speaker 2: we've had a true game to see how good he

1428
01:09:47,120 --> 01:09:49,320
Speaker 2: actually is. He's a most accurate passer in the nation

1429
01:09:49,840 --> 01:09:54,240
Speaker 2: by on target numbers. Mendoza's third. So but look at

1430
01:09:54,280 --> 01:09:56,760
Speaker 2: the competition that they've faced, look at the secondaries that

1431
01:09:56,800 --> 01:09:58,920
Speaker 2: they've gone up against. It's easy to pad your numbers.

1432
01:09:59,320 --> 01:10:00,479
Speaker 2: You want to give me the that I think is

1433
01:10:00,520 --> 01:10:02,400
Speaker 2: more physical, that's Indiana. You want to give me the

1434
01:10:02,439 --> 01:10:04,479
Speaker 2: team that I think is going to have more methodical drives,

1435
01:10:04,720 --> 01:10:06,759
Speaker 2: that's Indiana. The team that I see in the success

1436
01:10:06,840 --> 01:10:08,320
Speaker 2: rate on the ground is gonna have a better time,

1437
01:10:08,400 --> 01:10:10,840
Speaker 2: that's Indiana. So I'll take Indiana and the points. I

1438
01:10:10,880 --> 01:10:13,200
Speaker 2: wouldn't be shocked if they won Ohio State.

1439
01:10:13,080 --> 01:10:15,080
Speaker 1: By fourteen to one and one against the Spreads and

1440
01:10:15,160 --> 01:10:18,280
Speaker 1: is the lost to Michigan incredible. They are the best

1441
01:10:18,280 --> 01:10:21,320
Speaker 1: team in the country. But got feel I think there's

1442
01:10:21,320 --> 01:10:23,080
Speaker 1: some of the intangil's working Indiana favorite all I say

1443
01:10:23,080 --> 01:10:25,960
Speaker 1: it's abot winningnational titles, not Big ten championships. But these

1444
01:10:26,000 --> 01:10:27,720
Speaker 1: are two of the best I think three teams in

1445
01:10:27,760 --> 01:10:30,000
Speaker 1: the country. I stay clears, but I'm going to take

1446
01:10:30,000 --> 01:10:31,519
Speaker 1: the point here. It's on the agree board along with

1447
01:10:31,640 --> 01:10:35,439
Speaker 1: JAMU split with team total over by the way agrees

1448
01:10:35,800 --> 01:10:38,240
Speaker 1: sixty one, forty four and one fifty eight point one percent.

1449
01:10:38,720 --> 01:10:41,560
Speaker 1: That'll do it for all nine conference tournament previous. We

1450
01:10:41,640 --> 01:10:44,800
Speaker 1: do have two final orders. Business will build our our

1451
01:10:44,840 --> 01:10:46,280
Speaker 1: favorite favorite parlay.

1452
01:10:46,560 --> 01:10:48,160
Speaker 2: It's called the Overdogs parlay.

1453
01:10:48,240 --> 01:10:52,320
Speaker 1: I'm gonna roll with JAMIU, good matchup, incent them to

1454
01:10:52,360 --> 01:10:55,719
Speaker 1: run it up at home and weather healthier. Favorite review.

1455
01:10:56,200 --> 01:10:59,800
Speaker 2: You took the best overdog on the board, right. I

1456
01:11:00,280 --> 01:11:02,800
Speaker 2: know everybody sees the UNLV play on the app, but

1457
01:11:02,880 --> 01:11:06,880
Speaker 2: that was a hedge to the conference future that I

1458
01:11:06,960 --> 01:11:08,840
Speaker 2: have on Boise. If I did not have any of

1459
01:11:08,920 --> 01:11:11,439
Speaker 2: that going on, I would still lean Boise as a

1460
01:11:11,479 --> 01:11:12,120
Speaker 2: favorite favorite.

1461
01:11:12,439 --> 01:11:19,519
Speaker 1: And then our underdog moneyline parlay turning good weekends into

1462
01:11:19,760 --> 01:11:24,840
Speaker 1: great weekends. It's time for the money line parlay. I'm

1463
01:11:24,840 --> 01:11:30,800
Speaker 1: gonna okay going with going with my gut here into

1464
01:11:30,880 --> 01:11:34,559
Speaker 1: the intangibles matter, give me the Hoosiers get it down,

1465
01:11:34,640 --> 01:11:36,080
Speaker 1: and then Ohio State wins it all.

1466
01:11:36,280 --> 01:11:38,200
Speaker 2: Let's mix that with a color of green. I'm gonna

1467
01:11:38,240 --> 01:11:40,680
Speaker 2: take an angry wave. Let's go with Tulane here, uh

1468
01:11:40,960 --> 01:11:43,599
Speaker 2: North Texas defense a little shallow on the defensive line

1469
01:11:43,600 --> 01:11:47,439
Speaker 2: and the numbers aren't that great and tu Lane has

1470
01:11:47,560 --> 01:11:50,439
Speaker 2: been insanely good on the ground over the past few games.

1471
01:11:50,439 --> 01:11:51,840
Speaker 2: I think Somemer all gets it done here.

1472
01:11:52,800 --> 01:11:55,760
Speaker 1: The home running dog. All right, that'll do it for us.

1473
01:11:56,000 --> 01:11:59,719
Speaker 1: As I mentioned before, we're gonna have all you covered

1474
01:11:59,760 --> 01:12:02,280
Speaker 1: for every single bowl game, playoff game. Make sure to

1475
01:12:02,320 --> 01:12:03,639
Speaker 1: check out the group of five guys. Don't forget aout

1476
01:12:03,640 --> 01:12:06,320
Speaker 1: the VOICEMAI nine five nine bat. We'll have our last reaction,

1477
01:12:06,560 --> 01:12:09,560
Speaker 1: our last threecap episode with voicemails, and we'll do it

1478
01:12:09,880 --> 01:12:15,559
Speaker 1: while live reacting to the college football playoff bracket reveal. Yes,

1479
01:12:15,640 --> 01:12:17,799
Speaker 1: the regular season is over, but the college football drama

1480
01:12:18,080 --> 01:12:20,800
Speaker 1: and betting is just getting started. We will have you

1481
01:12:20,880 --> 01:12:24,360
Speaker 1: covered throughout on the action thatworkapactionwork dot Com, and of

1482
01:12:24,439 --> 01:12:26,320
Speaker 1: course from the big bets on. Keep this podcast if

1483
01:12:26,320 --> 01:12:28,519
Speaker 1: you can take a second, really helps us out all

1484
01:12:28,640 --> 01:12:30,519
Speaker 1: year round. Leave a five star review, make sure you

1485
01:12:30,600 --> 01:12:33,400
Speaker 1: scrap on, Scrap, Scrap, tel Friend, telling Enemy. Thanks to

1486
01:12:33,439 --> 01:12:35,800
Speaker 1: Colin for joining me. Thanks to Davi, our producer on

1487
01:12:35,840 --> 01:12:37,320
Speaker 1: the back end. Most importantly, thanks to all of you

1488
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Speaker 1: for tuning in. Always so fun it's a pleasure to

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Speaker 1: do this. Let's have a huge Bowl season and playoff run.

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Speaker 1: Thanks again and we will catch you for the recap. Cheers.

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Speaker 2: Peace Out Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

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Speaker 2: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

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Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

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Speaker 2: hundred Gambler