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Speaker 1: Hey guys, how are you welcome into a Thursday morning

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Speaker 1: edition of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is Matt Barotze.

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Speaker 1: You guys can follow me on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt.

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Speaker 1: You can follow Betting Pros on Twitter at Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: andfl We're here on YouTube every morning wherever you get

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Speaker 1: your audio podcasts, and as always, if you can't find

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Speaker 1: it there, just go to Bettingpros dot com and you

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Speaker 1: will see the Daily Juice at the bottom. Every single morning.

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Speaker 1: We are here making picks and plays. So I didn't

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Speaker 1: have anything in action yesterday. It was a nice little breather.

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Speaker 1: Some of you got mad. You're the Daily Juice. You're

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Speaker 1: supposed to be making picks every day. I did make

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Speaker 1: bets for UFC two sixty six. I just didn't make

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Speaker 1: any bets for Wednesday. It was a nice little day off.

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Speaker 1: Why because I would have gotten stuff wrong. I may

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Speaker 1: have bet the Red Sox that would have gotten right.

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Speaker 1: That would have been right. But I mean Baseball's the Cardinals. Hello,

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Speaker 1: the Cardinals very well might cash that over. I think

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Speaker 1: it's eighty six right win total for us? How hot

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Speaker 1: eleven in a row. They were a dog again last

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Speaker 1: night what are you doing. Eleven games in a row,

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Speaker 1: they've been a dog six out of the eleven days

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Speaker 1: they've been a dog, and they've won every time. Cardinals Man, Hello,

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Speaker 1: red Hot, and they may actually get us there for

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Speaker 1: their over win total, which would be very, very nice.

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Speaker 1: So watching the futures as we come down the stretch

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Speaker 1: here and waiting to cash our Red Sox ticket and

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Speaker 1: all the other fun stuff that we're gonna get to

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Speaker 1: do at the end of the baseball season. Okay, So

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Speaker 1: let's talk about Thursday Night football. And I've got three

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Speaker 1: plays for you guys coming up here tonight. I've got

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Speaker 1: one full unit bet, and I have got two prop

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Speaker 1: bets that I want to give you guys coming up

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Speaker 1: here tonight for Thursday night football. This is a very

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Speaker 1: interesting games because it is Davis Mills. It is the

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Speaker 1: first ever start for a rookie quarterback out of Stanford.

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Speaker 1: But this is an interesting guy because if you follow

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Speaker 1: the draft, you knew that this player. In particular, for

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Speaker 1: teams like the Patriots, when they were looking at quarterbacks

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Speaker 1: who could come in and play right away, Davis Mills

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Speaker 1: was one of those guys. I mean, the Patriots really

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Speaker 1: thought about it. They looked at him. There were rumors

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Speaker 1: connecting the Patriots to him because of this very reason,

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Speaker 1: and it's why the Patriots South took Davis Mills because

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Speaker 1: they think he could play right away. They knew they

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Speaker 1: were not going to have Tyrod Taylor. Sorry, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: have Deshaun Watson. And in case Tyrod Taylor got hurt,

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Speaker 1: this is the guy. Tyrod Taylor got hurt, and unfortunately

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Speaker 1: for him, after last year getting his trainer sticking him

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Speaker 1: with a needle and puncturing his lung which cost him

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Speaker 1: the job with the Chargers, now here, this is his

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Speaker 1: bad hamstring injury that could cost him his job with

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Speaker 1: the Texans. But Mills played okay, one touchdown in one

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Speaker 1: pick when he came in relief, threw over one hundred yards.

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Speaker 1: I don't think this kid's horrible. I think this kid

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Speaker 1: can play. And I think this kid's gonna make some

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Speaker 1: people nervous if you're going to come out here and

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Speaker 1: lay the eight points with the Carolina Panthers. Now Carolina

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Speaker 1: has has won both games.

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Speaker 2: They're two to zero.

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Speaker 1: They beat the Jets and then they whipped up on

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Speaker 1: the sinks and now they're on the road here on

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Speaker 1: a short week to Houston where everyone is betting the

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Speaker 1: Panthers hammering the Panthers eight maybe eight and a half. Boy,

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Speaker 1: that number is climbing. Haven't we seen this story before?

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Speaker 1: Haven't we seen a home dog on Thursday and everybody

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Speaker 1: thinks it's going to be a blowout and it doesn't

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Speaker 1: turn into a blowout. What if Davis Mills can play? Seriously,

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Speaker 1: what if the kid can play? If the kid can

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Speaker 1: play and he's got weapons and he can throw the

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Speaker 1: ball around, what happens?

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Speaker 2: Are you going to just go.

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Speaker 1: I'm comfortable that Sam Darnald Yet, that's Sam Darnold with

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Speaker 1: Joe Brady and with Kristian McCaffery, that they're gonna run

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Speaker 1: the score up and they're gonna hammer the Texans in

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Speaker 1: primetime in their building. We so sure about that?

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Speaker 2: Man, I don't know.

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Speaker 1: So I went looking around. Okay, I go to different websites.

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Speaker 1: There is a great website called Footballoutsiders dot com. I

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Speaker 1: would recommend anybody going and taking a look at it.

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Speaker 1: Just go and poke around different projections, different things you

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Speaker 1: can look at through Football Outsiders. You can also go

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Speaker 1: to a website called E d J Sports. This is

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Speaker 1: a simulation company. Okay, they give you the line that

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Speaker 1: they think the line should be. They are projecting this

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Speaker 1: game to be a twenty one seventeen final. That is

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Speaker 1: a four point win for the Carolina Panthers. That is

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Speaker 1: also an under for where we are here with a

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Speaker 1: total of forty three.

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Speaker 2: Okay, So this is interesting.

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Speaker 1: When you start poking around, you start looking at where

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Speaker 1: this team is forty three, s are going okay, where

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Speaker 1: are we? How are we going to get here? How

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Speaker 1: many points are going to be scored? What is the

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Speaker 1: most likely outcome here?

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Speaker 2: Okay?

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Speaker 1: So the total is down to forty two now, okay,

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Speaker 1: and I guess forty two and a half is the

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Speaker 1: total right now for this game. The thirty eight points

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Speaker 1: being scored twenty one seventeen would would go under the

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Speaker 1: forty two and a half points. Okay. So I'm not

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Speaker 1: saying that the public is wrong. I'm not saying the

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Speaker 1: books number is way off. But this is the simulation

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Speaker 1: is saying. Okay, money line Panthers, but under and the

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Speaker 1: Texans are the play So this is enough to freak

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Speaker 1: me out.

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Speaker 2: Okay, this is enough to go. Man?

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Speaker 1: Do I really want to lay eight points on the road?

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Speaker 1: I do not do I want to take the Texans

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Speaker 1: though at home plus eight to not get blown out.

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Speaker 2: No, I don't. It freaks me out. The whole game

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Speaker 2: freaks me out.

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Speaker 1: So we're going to go do one of my famous

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Speaker 1: same game teasers, okay, and I'm going to take the

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Speaker 1: Panthers from eight down to two. So I get them

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Speaker 1: below three, there's a three point win for the Panthers.

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Speaker 1: We cash, and then I'm going to take the total

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Speaker 1: from forty two and a half and pull it down

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Speaker 1: to thirty six and a half and take the over.

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Speaker 1: So let's just say that Ejsports EDJ Sports, their simulation

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Speaker 1: is completely correct, and it's twenty one seventeen.

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Speaker 2: And it's just a simulation.

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Speaker 1: Okay, this is just they use a model they simulated

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Speaker 1: over one hundred thousand times. It's just one little tool

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Speaker 1: that I use from time to time when I'm trying

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Speaker 1: to figure out games and we have some data. You

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Speaker 1: can't use this website early in the year because you

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Speaker 1: don't have any data to go on. So and a

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Speaker 1: lot of the data they're using for the Texans is

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Speaker 1: with Tyrod Taylor. Okay, So you could say, well, Matt

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Speaker 1: wit Amante, are they accounting for Davis Mills. Well, maybe

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Speaker 1: they are because he played in the last game. So

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Speaker 1: maybe they can, you know, figure that out and use

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Speaker 1: it in their model. They can tweak their model to

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Speaker 1: represent that they've got a rookie quarterback.

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Speaker 2: But they're saying twenty one seventeen.

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Speaker 1: Okay, they're saying it's a tight game to what everybody thinks,

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Speaker 1: Road Team wins, but Road Team does not cover the

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Speaker 1: eight points. I get below two on this same game

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Speaker 1: six point teaser, and I get below thirty seven, which

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Speaker 1: would get us to the thirty eight number they're projecting,

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Speaker 1: and gets below that. So just in case they're right,

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Speaker 1: and I do think Carolina scores, I do think Houston scores,

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Speaker 1: think both teams. I think forty three, forty four, forty

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Speaker 1: five somewhere in that range is what I think this

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Speaker 1: game is gonna wind up being the simulation's got at

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Speaker 1: thirty eight.

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Speaker 2: I'm going below the simulation on both sides.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go minus two and over thirty six and

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Speaker 1: a half one unit at minus one twenty same game

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Speaker 1: teaser is where I'm going for my first play for

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Speaker 1: this game, first unit. The only way I get burned,

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Speaker 1: I think is if the Texans win the game outright,

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Speaker 1: and that would be wacko. If they won this game outright,

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Speaker 1: it would be a unbelievable fall down on your face,

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Speaker 1: Carolina Panther's disgusting performance. Okay, if Carolina blows out the Texans,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna hit the over. So I think this bet

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Speaker 1: is safe to go ahead and bet it like this,

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Speaker 1: And I just I don't think that the Texans go

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Speaker 1: in and just eviscerate the Panthers. It would be I mean,

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Speaker 1: I would be stunned if they even win the game outright.

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Speaker 1: But Panthers to win the game, a hard fought game,

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Speaker 1: a three point victory, I think it's very possible.

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Speaker 2: I think it's very, very possible.

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Speaker 1: But I also think it's possible that the Panthers just

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Speaker 1: go in there and McCaffrey goes crazy and scores a

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Speaker 1: million points for him and it's a blowout. So this

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Speaker 1: is kind of insurance on both We get the tight game,

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Speaker 1: we get the lower scoring game, but we also get

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Speaker 1: the blowout and the high scoring game, so we're covered

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Speaker 1: on both sides. We hit both both scenarios. We cash

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Speaker 1: on this wager. Okay, So one unit, same game, teaser

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Speaker 1: six point teaser Panthers minus two over thirty six and

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Speaker 1: a half for the total for us is what I'm

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Speaker 1: jumping into. Over thirty six and a half down from

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Speaker 1: forty two and a half for a same game teaser

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Speaker 1: one unit. Okay, now I do have two prop bets

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Speaker 1: to jump in, and we're gonna first go to the

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Speaker 1: bet cheat sheet what you guys can find on bettingpros

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Speaker 1: dot com. Have you guys been using this last year

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Speaker 1: and the model has been refined and refined and refined.

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Speaker 1: We used it in the NFL, then we came in

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Speaker 1: and used it with the NBA. It was extremely profitable

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Speaker 1: during the NBA for us. If you were with us

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Speaker 1: during basketball season, you know what the prop bet cheat

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Speaker 1: sheet off of bettingpros dot com did for us.

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Speaker 2: It was awesome.

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Speaker 1: Okay, this is one game, so it's a little bit

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Speaker 1: different because normally it gives you different games and different plays.

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Speaker 1: But if you go and just click on Carolina at Houston,

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Speaker 1: the number one prop is Sam Darnold to go under

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Speaker 1: his yardage. I'm not trusting that, Okay, I'm just I'm

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Speaker 1: not trusting that. However, the number two prop bet cheat

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Speaker 1: sheet recommendation is Robbie Anderson over forty three and a

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Speaker 1: half yards receiving at minus one point fifteen at DraftKings,

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Speaker 1: they are projecting fifty six zero point eighty two yards receiving.

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Speaker 1: That's over thirteen yards of value Dan Harris's model. I

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Speaker 1: talked to Dan matches that Dan's got fifty three for

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Speaker 1: Robbie Anderson. So we're way over forty three and a

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Speaker 1: half by ten or thirteen yards here for both models.

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Speaker 1: In both projections, Dan Harris's model and the betting Pro's

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Speaker 1: prop bet cheat sheet thinks that Robbie Anderson from Sam

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Speaker 1: Darnold will have more than forty three and a half

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Speaker 1: yards receiving.

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Speaker 2: So far this year, the.

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Speaker 1: Houston Texans have allowed six different receivers to have either

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Speaker 1: forty or more yards receiving against them. I like this

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Speaker 1: a lot, Robbie Anderson over forty three and a half

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Speaker 1: yards receiving. These are the moments that I'm betting a

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Speaker 1: half a unit, but I wouldn't hate it.

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Speaker 2: If you guys bet a fu.

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Speaker 1: I'm being a quarter unit. I wouldn't mind a half

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Speaker 1: unit bet on this right. This is how much I

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Speaker 1: like this. I'm only recommending a quarter, but sometimes the

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Speaker 1: stars align and sometimes everyone's seeing everything properly, and as

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Speaker 1: long as he doesn't get hurt, I think Anderson gets

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Speaker 1: well over this. I think they're gonna get the ball

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Speaker 1: out to him. I think there's mismatches in that secondary.

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Speaker 1: I think Robbie Anderson can have a big day up

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Speaker 1: against this secondary.

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Speaker 2: Four the Houston Texans.

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Speaker 1: Robbie Anderson quarter unit over forty three and a half

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Speaker 1: yards receiving at minus one point fifteen at DraftKings. And

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Speaker 1: for the other half of unit, I'm gonna go to

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Speaker 1: the number three recommended bet on the prop bet cheat sheet,

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Speaker 1: and we're going Brandon Cooks of the Houston Texans to

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Speaker 1: go over sixty eight and a half yards receiving. Now,

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Speaker 1: there is a little bit of a discrepancy between what

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Speaker 1: Dan is expecting out of Brandon Cooks and what the prop.

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Speaker 2: Bet cheat sheet is expecting.

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Speaker 1: Dan projects seventy three and a half yards receiving, So

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Speaker 1: Dan is projecting five yards of value there by betting

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Speaker 1: over sixty eight and a half at DraftKings at mins

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Speaker 1: one point fifteen, But the prop bet cheat sheet says

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Speaker 1: eighty one point one. That's twelve point six yards of value.

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Speaker 1: So Dan See's the prop bet cheat sheet sees twelve

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Speaker 1: and a half.

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Speaker 2: I like it still.

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Speaker 1: I don't like it as much as Robbie Anderson, but

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Speaker 1: I do think Brandon Cooks. I know it's Davis Mills,

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Speaker 1: so you have a little bit of a concern there,

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Speaker 1: But I think he'll look to stretch the field. I

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Speaker 1: think he knows he has to find his playmakers and

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Speaker 1: get the ball out to the right people. And for

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Speaker 1: a quarter unit, I don't think sixty eight and a

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Speaker 1: half is that big of a number to go ahead

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Speaker 1: and get over it. Brandon Cooks going over sixty eight

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Speaker 1: and a half yards receiving at a quarter unit at

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Speaker 1: minus one point fifteen. That is also can be found

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Speaker 1: at DraftKings for two props going here today for a

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Speaker 1: Thursday night.

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Speaker 2: Now I may have the other half a unit.

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Speaker 1: I may come in in the Discord channel bettingpros dot

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Speaker 1: COM's last chat or underneath me here on YouTube for

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Speaker 1: the link to get in. We're over eight thousand users,

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Speaker 1: by the way on the Discord channel, so that's cool.

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Speaker 2: We get over that. Now we got to go for

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Speaker 2: nine thousand.

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Speaker 1: But I may have a half a unit baseball play

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Speaker 1: I may have a couple of more props. I don't

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Speaker 1: know what I'm gonna do with the other unit. I'll

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Speaker 1: do something with it though. We'll have something in play.

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Speaker 1: We'll have some something I'll add for sure coming up.

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Speaker 1: I need to kind of look around and see what

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Speaker 1: we're gonna play with, and we'll do something. We'll have

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Speaker 1: another bet on Thursday, either baseball or football for you

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Speaker 1: guys for a half a unit on the Discord channel

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Speaker 1: for you guys to hop in bettingpros dot com slash

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Speaker 1: chat to get in, or again the link underneath me

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Speaker 1: here on YouTube to go ahead and hop in with

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Speaker 1: us here for a daily Juice podcast. Okay, so those

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Speaker 1: are the three plays for Thursday night football once again.

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Speaker 1: We are teasing the Panthers down to minus two, and

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Speaker 1: we are taking the over or the total down to

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Speaker 1: thirty six and a half, and we're betting the over

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Speaker 1: that is a one unit bet at minus one twenty.

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Speaker 1: And we are going with Robbie Anderson over forty three

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Speaker 1: and a half yards receiving and Brendan Cooks over sixty

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Speaker 1: eight and a half yards receiving for two props at

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Speaker 1: a quarter unit each of minus one fifteen at DraftKings

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Speaker 1: for us here on a Thursday, as we get rolling

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Speaker 1: into the weekend Thursday, we'll have some plays for Friday

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Speaker 1: college football the.

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Speaker 2: Cold Brewster.

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Speaker 1: I just want to say one quick thing at the

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Speaker 1: end here, and this really warmed my heart because it

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Speaker 1: shows what the community is.

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Speaker 2: So on Wednesday, I'm really.

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Speaker 1: Busy, and Wednesdays are kind of crazy because I teach

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Speaker 1: a class at U and LV and it's at four o'clock,

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Speaker 1: so I just I'm running around. I get off the

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Speaker 1: radio at at one, I tape another podcast at two.

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Speaker 1: I then have to get in my car. At three,

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Speaker 1: I drive to UNLV for the class.

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Speaker 2: At four.

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Speaker 1: I teach from four to five thirty. I come home,

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Speaker 1: I eat dinner with my family, and then I get

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Speaker 1: going with preparation and everything else, and then I sit

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Speaker 1: down and.

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Speaker 2: I do this podcast.

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Speaker 1: So it's a long day Wednesdays, or long in Mondays

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Speaker 1: too because I teach on Mondays too, But so I'm

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Speaker 1: not in the Discord channel as much as I would

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Speaker 1: like to be. But I was seeing all these pictures

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Speaker 1: of dogs and I was just like, what is what

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Speaker 1: is going on?

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Speaker 2: Like this is on a.

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Speaker 1: Nuts and the reason is Cold Brewster his dog had

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Speaker 1: passed away. And I still don't know all the specifics

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Speaker 1: of it. But cold Brewster is an admin now for Rozzi.

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Speaker 1: He's a member of the Daily Juice circum Million team.

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Speaker 1: And somebody wrote me a really touching note and I

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Speaker 1: don't know if I'm at liberty to share it or not,

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Speaker 1: but I'll just read you a little bit of it

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Speaker 1: because I thought it was really I thought it was

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Speaker 1: really nice. It kind of shows you where we are

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Speaker 1: as a community and how people are and the way

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Speaker 1: people are kind of reacting. This came from a user

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Speaker 1: and said, Hey, Matt, I'm sure you're seeing all the

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Speaker 1: dog activity in the chat today after cold Brewster had

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Speaker 1: to put his dog down, can I suggest that on

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Speaker 1: Friday the parlay is a dog theme like we did

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Speaker 1: after you lost your cat. Just looking for something at

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Speaker 1: the games? He recommended some games for a dog parlay.

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Speaker 1: Here's a picture of my pop. He kind of talked

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Speaker 1: about it. You say, my ex fiance broke up our

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Speaker 1: engagement for another guy to him and will kettle him

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Speaker 1: instead of letting me have dog sit kind of a

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Speaker 1: tough It's a beautiful looking dog and if you guys

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Speaker 1: can see it, but it's a beautiful looking dog. He said,

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Speaker 1: best regards, thanks for making this community. It's from I'll

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Speaker 1: leave his name out of this, but yes, the in

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Speaker 1: short answer, the parlay on Friday will be and will

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Speaker 1: be dedicated to Cold Brewster and to his to his pup,

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Speaker 1: and we will do a dog a dog themed either

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Speaker 1: underdog or dog mascot theme parlay coming up on Friday

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Speaker 1: tomorrow for the Don't Bet a Parlay parlay. And I

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Speaker 1: think my cat parlay when Felix passed away and we

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Speaker 1: had to put Felix down, I think that parlay hit.

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Speaker 1: So hopefully we could do the same for Cold Brewster.

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Speaker 1: And just want to know we're thinking about you, Bud

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Speaker 1: and man, that just it made me really just feel

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Speaker 1: really good that you guys are taking care of your own.

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Speaker 1: I'm not around, I can't be around as much as

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Speaker 1: I want to be sometimes, and the community is there,

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Speaker 1: Like that's what I wanted. I suppose I've always wanted that,

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Speaker 1: that community it's was hoping for, Like, regardless I'm there

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Speaker 1: or not, you guys, you know, protect your own, take

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Speaker 1: care of business, and when someone's down, you pick them

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Speaker 1: up and you try to make them feel better and

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Speaker 1: and and just and be there.

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Speaker 2: For each other virtually. So yeah, that was really that

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Speaker 2: was a nice moment. That was really cool.

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Speaker 1: So definitely tomorrow on Friday we would do a dog

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Speaker 1: themed Don't Bet a Parlay parley for sure in memory

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Speaker 1: of cold Brewsters pop. That's pretty cool stuff. Minus Matt Parolt.

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Speaker 1: Follow me on Twitter at sports Talk Matt. Each and

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Speaker 1: every morning, it's the Daily Juice podcast right here on

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Speaker 1: Bettingpros dot com. I always being brought to you by

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Speaker 1: bet I'm Jam