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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Ju us proud read.

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Speaker 3: Enough for running again. So smoothe so sweet stipid sixteen

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Speaker 3: just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty

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Speaker 3: percent effort four thousand percent of the time. How shot

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Speaker 3: with that?

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Speaker 1: Shop with mind? Good buddy, and.

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Speaker 2: That's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 4: Look at his movements the most.

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Speaker 1: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: The love is left to Wanda, wide eyed, drilled fibus

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Speaker 3: how old Earth?

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Speaker 2: Pick that happens?

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Speaker 1: Hellori one and welcome back to Wonder Goal, the soccer

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Speaker 1: betting podcast from the Action Network, presented to you by

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Speaker 1: Bett three six y five. My name is Michael Ebuff

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Speaker 1: and joining me for this hour round of sixteen preview

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Speaker 1: at Euro twenty twenty four are BJ Cunningham and Sam Ingram.

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Speaker 1: Right before he heads off to Glastonbury in Scotland. Right,

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Speaker 1: it's in Scotland somewhere right?

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Speaker 4: No, No, in England?

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Speaker 1: It isot isn't the north or something? Is it close to? Wow?

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Speaker 1: Why did I always associate Why didn't I always associate

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Speaker 1: Glassonbury with Scotland? I don't know Anyways, aside from that,

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Speaker 1: we are going to go match my match here, give

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Speaker 1: out our favorite bets for each match. Any futures we like,

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Speaker 1: we'll talk about as we get into those teams. So

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Speaker 1: if BJ likes, you know, Italy to win it all,

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Speaker 1: now we would. He'll bring that up as we get

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Speaker 1: into Switzerland versus Italy, which is where we'll start. The

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Speaker 1: Swiss are a plus two forty underdog on the three

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Speaker 1: way line. Here Italy's plus one forty. The draw is

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Speaker 1: plus one ninety the two advanced line. It's pretty tight.

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Speaker 1: I believe the tightest of all. Yeah, it is the

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Speaker 1: tightest of all eight matches. Plus one ten on Switzerland

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Speaker 1: to advance, minus one thirty eight on Italy. I actually

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Speaker 1: have some interest in Switzerland here the way I will

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Speaker 1: bet it, I'll get into it in a sec. Sam,

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Speaker 1: but you're also in Switzerland one way or another.

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Speaker 4: I am Michael. After Italy's come back when over Albania

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Speaker 4: and the opening, I had higher hopes for Italy than

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Speaker 4: I did ninety minutes previous. Looking at the squad, it

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Speaker 4: didn't feel me with confidence. They weren't spoken about as

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Speaker 4: contenders through the semis or the finals. Given that run

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Speaker 4: rung of nations at the top end of the betting.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, after Albania and in hollinsight it was reactionary,

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Speaker 4: but I started to believe that maybe they had something

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Speaker 4: to offer and cause problems against the bigger boys, against

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Speaker 4: Croatia and Spain. But after those games come around, that

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Speaker 4: belief was quashed in all honesty, and now they face

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Speaker 4: a Swiss side who are, like England, developing a skill

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Speaker 4: set which sees them coast through to the knockout stages

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Speaker 4: time after time. They used to making the round of sixty.

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Speaker 4: They boast to know how to get there. This is

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Speaker 4: actually the sixth major tournament in a row where they

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Speaker 4: have qualified from the group and according to the Better

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Speaker 4: Expert Euro's betting guide since nineteen ninety eight, if you

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Speaker 4: back the draw in every single EU knockout match, you'd

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Speaker 4: have an return on investment of thirty eight point one

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Speaker 4: percent from fifty eight matches, So twenty four out of

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Speaker 4: fifty eight were draws. So big numbers and it just

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Speaker 4: goes to show that the draw is very much a

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Speaker 4: live runner at this stage of the competition, and for

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Speaker 4: this game specifically, I think it is. Hence be bringing

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Speaker 4: it up and it's not a surprise that the pressure

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Speaker 4: is the highest it's ever been for some of these players.

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Speaker 4: The expectation levels rise enormously out of the groups. England,

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Speaker 4: for example, over the years, we've had a ridiculous level

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Speaker 4: of expectation and usually on some teams that just weren't

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Speaker 4: equipped to win a major tournament or even come close

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Speaker 4: to it. Now in Switzerland they're solid summer and the

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Speaker 4: back three plus jacket in front there's four hundred and

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Speaker 4: eighty international caps combine there, Jacka and Thriller will ensure

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Speaker 4: that Italy's midfield will be harried and hassled the defenders

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Speaker 4: in behind them. Shot at Candy Rodriguez will ensure whoever

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Speaker 4: starts up front for Italy will have a troublesome ninety minutes.

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Speaker 4: And now we mentioned last week that the Swiss have

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Speaker 4: got paced to getting behind up top and on the wing.

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Speaker 4: And they've also got a squad of management team packed

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Speaker 4: with major tournament experience, as I've touched on, and that's invaluable.

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Speaker 4: And if you're looking at the Italian side, I don't

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Speaker 4: think it has that, and not to the same degree

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Speaker 4: at least. And this tournament Italy has struggled against the

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Speaker 4: two high quality nations so far, while Switzerland nearly trump

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Speaker 4: Germany and they cast aside a decent enough hungry outfit,

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Speaker 4: and I can see them serving up a similar level

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Speaker 4: of performance. The quarter goal advantage on the handicap here

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Speaker 4: it's a must for me really in the round of sixteen,

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Speaker 4: considering we get the draw inside and considering we profit

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Speaker 4: from the draw, So you can get Switzerland on the

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Speaker 4: Asian handicap at minus one twenty four a quarter goal

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Speaker 4: head start on Betfey's fall, and I'll think the look

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Speaker 4: a lot.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I like Switzerland here. I'm probably just gonna play

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Speaker 1: them to advance with the idea of playing a money

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Speaker 1: line or to advance rollover, because I do think that

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Speaker 1: they would If England gets through against Slovaki, I think

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Speaker 1: that Switzerland would be live against them as well, and

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Speaker 1: they're thirty three to one to win the tournament, I

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Speaker 1: don't think that they'll get there. But with a rollover,

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Speaker 1: where you're just basically taking your stake betting it and

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Speaker 1: then taking that lumping it out into the next round,

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Speaker 1: you have the ability to put a stop to it, right,

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Speaker 1: And I think that as we get into maybe a

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Speaker 1: trickier matchup for Switzerland and whether it be the semis

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Speaker 1: or the finals, should they get there, you have that

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Speaker 1: ability and that flexibility. But I am I wasn't really

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Speaker 1: just enamored with the Switzerland team before the tournament. I

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Speaker 1: think that was wrong. They are I think very live

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Speaker 1: to make noise. To draw obviously helps, so BJ I'm

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Speaker 1: looking that way for this one, and I'm surprised eyes

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Speaker 1: honestly to see that You're you're sitting this one out

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Speaker 1: just because you liked the Swiss team in previous tournaments.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I do, Michael. You know, I projected this pretty

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Speaker 2: close to around where the market has it, and at

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Speaker 2: the end of the day, I tend to trust my

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Speaker 2: numbers more than my brain because my brain tends to

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Speaker 2: be a lot stupider than my numbers. So the yeah,

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Speaker 2: Sam's hit the nail on the head is that Italy

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Speaker 2: looked great in the comeback against Albania. They controlled that

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Speaker 2: match from start to finish, and they looked terrible against Spain,

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Speaker 2: like really really bad and we've already mentioned it, but

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Speaker 2: they couldn't get out their own final third. They allowed

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Speaker 2: Spain to have eleven high turnovers. We'll get to Germany

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Speaker 2: a second. But I thought Switzerland was very brave and

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Speaker 2: very aggressive and very good with their defending of how

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Speaker 2: of Germany. Germany's one of the most difficult teams to

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Speaker 2: defend this entire tournament with how Noveldsman has them set up,

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Speaker 2: and they went aggressive, they went man to man and

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Speaker 2: they stifled them for large stretches of that match. So

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Speaker 2: they can do the same here to Italy. And I

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Speaker 2: think what's like most concerning about Italy is, you know,

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Speaker 2: we know Spiletti is you know from his days of

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Speaker 2: Napoli that he is a great manager. He's somebody who

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Speaker 2: wants his team to build out of the back, but

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Speaker 2: he's also very versatile and he can have his team

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Speaker 2: play very direct. But Italy playing very direct has been terrible.

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Speaker 2: Like they have not been able to play balls over

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Speaker 2: the top, They've not been able to play in transition.

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Speaker 2: It seems like their only method is really to play

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Speaker 2: out of the back, which in a match like this

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Speaker 2: against a Swiss team that has shown ability to press

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Speaker 2: high and cause a lot of problems or be just

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Speaker 2: very good in the mid block, that is the troublesome part.

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Speaker 2: So if iered Ben anything I'd go with the Sam's

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Speaker 2: route more long lines of a draw, or maybe even

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Speaker 2: potentially like you know, like Samsong in Switzerland. But for me,

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Speaker 2: my numbers are pretty close to this one, so I'm

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Speaker 2: going to pass. I still have the Swiss eighty to

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Speaker 2: one tickets. I think I'm just gonna ride that out

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Speaker 2: for this round at least.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So that is the first kickoff of the round

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Speaker 1: of sixteen, twelve pm Eastern Time, five pm British summer

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Speaker 1: time in over the Pond. The three pm kickoff Eastern

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Speaker 1: time is Germany and Denmark. Germany are no longer the

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Speaker 1: tournament favorites. That now belongs to England because of the draw,

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Speaker 1: but we'll get into all that in a second. For

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Speaker 1: this one, Germany's minus one seventy five odds on on

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Speaker 1: the three way line, Denmark coming back as a five

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Speaker 1: to one underdog. The draw here is plus two ninety.

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Speaker 1: This is one where I actually do like the draw

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Speaker 1: a bit, because I think Denmark is just really suited

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Speaker 1: to drag teams and force even the best teams in

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Speaker 1: the world into these slug fests we saw with England

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Speaker 1: at the last Euro Like they they can take you

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Speaker 1: to the deep end of the pool, and they'll bet

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Speaker 1: on themselves to be able to just hang around and

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Speaker 1: capitalize on a mistake. So I think you're gonna have

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Speaker 1: one team here to set up to do just that,

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Speaker 1: which is Denmark. The other team, Germany's gonna be under

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Speaker 1: We talked about this before their opening match, and it's

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Speaker 1: Scotland like they'll feel the pressure on their shoulders. All

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Speaker 1: that pressure is gonna come right back now that we're

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Speaker 1: into the knockout stages. They're at home. They've obviously raised

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Speaker 1: the bar of expectations with their performances in the group stage,

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Speaker 1: but just because the team looked really good doesn't mean

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Speaker 1: we'll just see that same team show up again in

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Speaker 1: this situation. So I think Denmark is a good team

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Speaker 1: to just I think no matter who they would have

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Speaker 1: taken on in the round of sixteen, if of the

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Speaker 1: big boys, honestly, of any team, because they also don't

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Speaker 1: seem to be able to punch down all that well,

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Speaker 1: I think the draw is always gonna be lied with

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Speaker 1: a team like this BJ So I'm gonna look at

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Speaker 1: the draw here at plus two ninety bet three six

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Speaker 1: five Denmark and Germany. I think this one goes beyond

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Speaker 1: the ninety minutes.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I like something in a similar fashion. Both teams

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Speaker 2: to score No. Minus one twenty five. So I think

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of concerns with the Danish attack right now.

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Speaker 2: They've become too reliant on Christian Erickson to be their

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Speaker 2: main facilitator and honestly creator. So he has ten shots

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Speaker 2: so far this tournament. They're two strikers, Jonas Wynn and

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Speaker 2: Rasmuspoiland have combined for seven total shots. Mean, Hoyland's gotten

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Speaker 2: two shots this entire tournament. That's not really what we

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Speaker 2: expected coming in to their three matches. They've only created

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Speaker 2: three point two expected goals and forty three percent of

200
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Speaker 2: their shots have come from outside the box, so you

201
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Speaker 2: can kind of see where the struggles have come from

202
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Speaker 2: a chance creation standpoint. I mean, I think their match

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Speaker 2: against England is a good example of what this match

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Speaker 2: I think is kind of going to look like. You know,

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Speaker 2: once it got to one to one, they kind of

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Speaker 2: conceded possession to England. They sat in a five to

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Speaker 2: three to two, they didn't allow them to play through

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Speaker 2: the middle, and they've been very good defensively, I mean,

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Speaker 2: two point three expected goals throughout the group stage is

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Speaker 2: a very very impressive feat and what they're going to

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Speaker 2: have to do here though, you know we'll get to

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Speaker 2: England a second. But it's easy to sit passively against

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Speaker 2: a team that's not going to penetrate you through the middle.

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Speaker 2: But as Scotland learned against Germany, if you refuse to

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Speaker 2: pressure the ball, if you refuse to pressure Tony Kruz,

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Speaker 2: they are going to pick you apart time and time again.

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Speaker 2: Like I mentioned, the Swiss were very brave, they were

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Speaker 2: very aggressive. They pressed the ball, they didn't allow Tony

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Speaker 2: Kruz to get easy passes, and that's what Denmark's going

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Speaker 2: to have to do. Now. Hillmand is out, he is

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Speaker 2: got yellow, he's got a yellow card suspension. So my

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Speaker 2: giesh is that means that Christian Norgard is going to

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Speaker 2: come in. That's going to be a very defensive midfield

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Speaker 2: pairing with him and Koi Bert, who's the more ball

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Speaker 2: winner compared to Hillman. So my guess is that Denmark

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Speaker 2: will be very well versed to be able to keep

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Speaker 2: those teams out of the middle because Norguard, obviously playing

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Speaker 2: with Brentford, plays in a very similar defensive structure. Now

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Speaker 2: for Germany, I mean they make it so hard, like

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Speaker 2: they really do, like with the fact that Musiala and

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Speaker 2: verts and florianverts can all drop deep and move all

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Speaker 2: the way around the pitch. If you want to go

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Speaker 2: man to man, which a lot of teams do at

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Speaker 2: the international level, you pull a lot of center backs

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Speaker 2: out of uncomfortable positions. So like when the Swiss were

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Speaker 2: playing three center backs, it was a con was on

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Speaker 2: Mucila for most of the match and Muciola just kept

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Speaker 2: dropping deep and he kept moving all a on pitch

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Speaker 2: and just pulling a Kanji with him. But they were

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Speaker 2: aggressive and it worked. But a lot of teams that

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Speaker 2: doesn't really work. So it'll be very interesting to see

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Speaker 2: what this Denmark team can do. But in the end,

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Speaker 2: I really don't see how their attacks is going to

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Speaker 2: threaten this Germany team. You have to be good in

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Speaker 2: transition to beat Germany. That's what Switzerland showed. Denmark has

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Speaker 2: zero counter attacking shots so far as tournament, so I

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Speaker 2: like Bolteim to score No. Minus one twenty five projected

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Speaker 2: closer to minus one sixty. I just don't really see

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Speaker 2: much with the Danish attack here. I think Germany gets

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Speaker 2: through this thing in a one mil or two zero

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Speaker 2: type fashion.

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Speaker 4: So just following on from that, and although more bet

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Speaker 4: is a lean of Germany, when Germany most corners at

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Speaker 4: plus one six two, I like the draw two similar

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Speaker 4: to you guys, and move back to the Betan expert

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Speaker 4: Euros Betan guard with another shameless plug. If we analyze

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Speaker 4: the World Cup on Euros in the round of sixteen, specifically,

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Speaker 4: since nineteen ninety eight, seventy two matches have been played,

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Speaker 4: twenty five draws, so that would be a twenty six

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Speaker 4: point three percent return on investment if back in every

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Speaker 4: game to be a draw with a level one unit stake,

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Speaker 4: So maybe that's the way to go here. I expect

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Speaker 4: it will be low scoring. I expect it will be

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Speaker 4: KG all in all, though, are back Germany just to

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Speaker 4: edge it. The bookmakers have them as plus one six

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Speaker 4: seven favorites, which feels a touch short. I won't be

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Speaker 4: touching that on its own. Denmark have created three point

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Speaker 4: two XG from three games, they've accumulated three points and

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Speaker 4: at the other end they've conceded just two point two

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Speaker 4: expected goes. So far from go heavy in the group

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Speaker 4: stages for the Danish so yeah, I expect this one

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Speaker 4: to follow a similar path. Denmark will look to contain

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Speaker 4: and keep Germany at bay. I don't think they'll have

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Speaker 4: much joy going forward themselves, as BJ's touched upon. I

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Speaker 4: think they'll be able to contain successfully for large parts

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Speaker 4: of the game. However, in the end, on banking on

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Speaker 4: that German forward line to have a little too much

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Speaker 4: in forward areas. Hopefully we see more from them than

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Speaker 4: we did against the Switzerland. And I suppose to worry

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Speaker 4: is that Germany will struggle when coming up against a

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Speaker 4: low block when trying to break Denmark down. They struggled

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Speaker 4: against the Swiss. Ya can move to a free for

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Speaker 4: free shape where Jaka was really aggressive to Tony Cruz,

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Speaker 4: a Candy did similar to Kai Havertz, and they learned

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Speaker 4: from what didn't work for Scotland and Hungary, and they

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Speaker 4: adapted in match day three tactical flexibility from the Swiss,

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Speaker 4: something that we haven't always seen from them, something which

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Speaker 4: they aren't really known for, and they very nearly got

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Speaker 4: the better of Germany. So in terms of the bet,

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Speaker 4: the idea here with the corners attached to the German

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Speaker 4: win is that Denmark should present as solid and tough

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Speaker 4: to break down. But Germany will keep pushing and pushing

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Speaker 4: as hosts in front of a home crowd, being busy

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Speaker 4: and active at that end of the pits, taking shots

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Speaker 4: to see that corner line increase. We mentioned it before

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Speaker 4: the tournament. I trust Julian Nagusman to find a way

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Speaker 4: in these situations when it's knockout football manager versus manager.

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Speaker 4: I think I'm ready to lean on Agressman when the

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Speaker 4: time comes. Tye is suspended, Rudy Goer is a doubt,

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Speaker 4: so that is a huge concern. It might knock Germany

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Speaker 4: out with sink Back there and they haven't looked the

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Speaker 4: most robust defensively. Schlotterback could come in, so there are

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Speaker 4: concerns along that defensive line, but just here it's more

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Speaker 4: of a lean but at the prices, if Germany can

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Speaker 4: edge in front, eventually most corners might follow up. Plus

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Speaker 4: one sixty two.

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Speaker 1: Okay, that means we gotta do it. We got to

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Speaker 1: move on to Sunday, twelve pm Eastern Time, June thirtieth,

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Speaker 1: England and Slovakia. England are three or minus two fifty

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Speaker 1: on the three way line, Slovakia eight to one. The

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Speaker 1: draw would pay plus three three three. Here England is

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Speaker 1: minus six hundred to advance, Slovakia four to one to advance.

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Speaker 1: Why don't you know England, who I think, of all

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Speaker 1: the favorites, are the have been the most disappointing team.

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Speaker 1: I think it's fair to say relative to expectations, Well,

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Speaker 1: they are your betting favorites, folks, because they are an

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Speaker 1: ol plus three fifty to win the tournament, ahead of

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Speaker 1: Spain plus four fifty. Germany's five and a half to one,

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Speaker 1: so is France and Portugal's right behind them, and it's

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Speaker 1: just simply comes down to this draw, which I mean

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Speaker 1: maybe this was Garre Southgate's plan all along, because it

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Speaker 1: is unbelievable. So England plays Slovakia in round of sixteen,

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Speaker 1: then they'll catch the winner of Switzerland versus Italy, and

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Speaker 1: then the other foursome in their half of the bracket

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Speaker 1: is Romania and Netherlands, Austria and Turkey. So good man,

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Speaker 1: what a break for England. Sam. The thing is, I

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Speaker 1: think this one sets up really well for a draw

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Speaker 1: bet too, because we just saw it with England time

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Speaker 1: and again in the first in the group stage, like

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Speaker 1: they are really struggling to create on their own. Teams

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Speaker 1: are onto it, I think. I mean Slovenia just sat

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Speaker 1: back and dared England to do anything. They are in

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Speaker 1: the draw the nil nil in that one. They drew

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Speaker 1: with Denmark too, so we're already seeing them draw twice.

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Speaker 1: They've been uninspiring, they haven't scored more than one goal

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Speaker 1: in a game, but on the other side, they don't

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Speaker 1: give much up. So this the draw is just always

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Speaker 1: going to be in play in this match, right, even

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Speaker 1: if England's up one nil or Slovakia is up one nil,

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Speaker 1: the draws is always going to be in touch. This one,

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Speaker 1: to me really sets up well for a bit on

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Speaker 1: this thing to go past ninety minutes and it would

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Speaker 1: be very England to drag a team like Slovakia to

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Speaker 1: penalties in the around of sixteen. So perhaps if you

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Speaker 1: can find that prop where will this match and penalties?

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Speaker 1: I'm sure I can track that down as you're going

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Speaker 1: on about England here.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, the draw is looking favorable again. We've got

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Speaker 4: Garas Southgate playing four dchs. He's a genius and that's

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Speaker 4: why he's earning the big bucks. That's why he's the

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Speaker 4: highest paid manager in Germany. This summer. Looking at our model,

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Speaker 4: at better expert we've got England to win the Euros

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Speaker 4: to twenty six. The probability of twenty six point two

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Speaker 4: nine percent last double Germany and second and double France

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Speaker 4: in third. So that's that's how we see it. I'm

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Speaker 4: more social about that myself, but the jaw is favorable

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Speaker 4: against Slovenia. England weren't good enough. Again, if the desire

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Speaker 4: is to be one of the leading nations at the tournament,

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Speaker 4: the performance wasn't off that level. The performance got the

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Speaker 4: job done top of the group and through to the knockouts,

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Speaker 4: it wasn't necessarily convincing. I feel like I've said that

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Speaker 4: twice now, well three times. We saw England's quality, but

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Speaker 4: it only ever arrived in glimpses. We looked sharper after

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Speaker 4: Cole Palmer come on in forward, areas Kilby Maynu come

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Speaker 4: on at halftime for Connor Gallagher who didn't really impress.

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Speaker 4: But Mainu looks looks pretty assured in that, and I

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Speaker 4: think Garre Southgate might go for him again. Phil Folden's

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Speaker 4: had to return home for the birth of his child.

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Speaker 4: He might be in contention here, but if he's anything

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Speaker 4: like my missus. Then she'll have him staying with him

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Speaker 4: for a few days, I'm sure, and Slovakia will look

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Speaker 4: to try and get on the ball knock it around.

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Speaker 4: But we're also gladly sit in a little blockout position

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Speaker 4: possession against England. We've seen that England are happy enough

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Speaker 4: to conceive possession if their defensive third is out of

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Speaker 4: arms reach. That's what Southgate likes, That's how we likes

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Speaker 4: to play it, and that might be on the horizon again.

378
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Speaker 4: As long as the balls away from our eighteen yard box,

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Speaker 4: he'll be happy with that. So we might see Slovakia

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Speaker 4: have more of the ball than you'd usually expect against

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Speaker 4: the top nation. I would love to see Anthony Gordon

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Speaker 4: on the left. I've also said that a few times here.

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Speaker 4: Now it sound like a broken record. But however Southgate

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Speaker 4: sets up England should go through with goals coming at

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Speaker 4: a premium. So I liked under two point five goals,

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Speaker 4: but you can add England to qualify on and that

387
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Speaker 4: gets up the price alongside under two point five goals

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Speaker 4: of plus one ten. And I'm semi thankful I'm at

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Speaker 4: Glastonbury this weekend because I won't have to watch it,

390
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Speaker 4: which is.

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Speaker 2: Nice anything here BJ Yeah, I like under two and

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Speaker 2: a half minus one thirty five, So yeah, I mean

393
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Speaker 2: it's like the same story, right, like is there really

394
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Speaker 2: there's nothing really has changed the base, I you know,

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Speaker 2: going into the three goals three goals, Going into Slovenia match,

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Speaker 2: I was just like, all right, well, they can't play

397
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Speaker 2: through the middle. Their rotations are slow, they're just passing

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Speaker 2: the ball around and they haven't created anything.

399
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Speaker 5: And that's kind of exactly what happened.

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Speaker 2: They have not created over one expected goal in any match,

401
00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:21,119
Speaker 2: but they you know, they won the group. So like

402
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Speaker 2: at the end of the day, you're like, okay, But

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Speaker 2: I think the other point is like they still are

404
00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:29,159
Speaker 2: the best defensive team in this tournament. Like they've allowed

405
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Speaker 2: one point one non penalty expected goals, and it's because

406
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Speaker 2: the thing I keep saying is like they don't allow

407
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Speaker 2: you to beat in transition, They don't allow chances off

408
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Speaker 2: set pieces, and they really do a good job at

409
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Speaker 2: defending crosses, which are the three areas that underdogs like Slovenia,

410
00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:47,399
Speaker 2: Serbia and Slovakia can beat you. So I don't think

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Speaker 2: Slovakia is going to get any of the ball here.

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Speaker 2: I don't think they're really going to get any chances

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Speaker 2: on England's end, so it's really just going to come

414
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Speaker 2: down to ken England create enough from open play. They're

415
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Speaker 2: just getting the ball out. Why what's you know, what's

416
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Speaker 2: kind of weird is I was looking through some of

417
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Speaker 2: England's stats and you know, they they have They're in

418
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Speaker 2: the bottom half of this tournament in terms of percentage

419
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:10,399
Speaker 2: of attacks to the middle of the middle of the pitch,

420
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Speaker 2: so a lot of their attacks have come from out wide,

421
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,480
Speaker 2: but they've attempted the fourth lowest crosses, so that means

422
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Speaker 2: they're just relying on a lot of individual quality to

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Speaker 2: create those chances from out wide, which they do have

424
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Speaker 2: the best players in the world out wide, but especially

425
00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 2: against very very compact structures, it's very, very difficult to

426
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Speaker 2: just dribble through teams, and especially when you don't have

427
00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:35,920
Speaker 2: a lot of guys in the middle of the pitch,

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Speaker 2: it's hard to make those combination passes. And you know,

429
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Speaker 2: for Slovakia, I mean, listen, they got a good center back, bearing,

430
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Speaker 2: they have a good central midfielder like they can they

431
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Speaker 2: showed against I know they allowed over two expected goals

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Speaker 2: to Belgium, but like they have proven in this tournament

433
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:57,040
Speaker 2: that they can be decent sitting back, So I like

434
00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:58,680
Speaker 2: under two and a half of minus one thirty five.

435
00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:01,560
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna keep beending New England Unders until they

436
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:06,040
Speaker 2: prove that they can, you know, create more than one

437
00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:07,560
Speaker 2: and a half expected goals in a game.

438
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:11,919
Speaker 1: And nonetheless, like Jude Bellingham's still up there as one

439
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:14,680
Speaker 1: of the favorites for Player of the tournament. Obviously Harry

440
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:17,040
Speaker 1: Kane's got one goal and the leader as three, so

441
00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:19,359
Speaker 1: it's not like he's.

442
00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:21,760
Speaker 2: That's the other thing Michael is like Jude Bellingham last

443
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:24,399
Speaker 2: two games has not been that good like he was

444
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:27,239
Speaker 2: in the first one. And like the other problem is

445
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:28,919
Speaker 2: if you want to break, like if you want to

446
00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:31,719
Speaker 2: play through the middle, like they have nobody there, so

447
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:34,560
Speaker 2: like he gets isolated there, Kine keeps dropping deep and

448
00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:37,399
Speaker 2: they can't get him the ball. So like they're just

449
00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:39,560
Speaker 2: kind of stuck right now. They just need to be

450
00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:41,960
Speaker 2: more Like I think it sounds simple, but they just

451
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:42,800
Speaker 2: need to be more brave.

452
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I honestly thought it stuck.

453
00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:48,360
Speaker 2: That's the same story for what how long? What twenty

454
00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:51,879
Speaker 2: years now, Sam? Or what how long? Southeast in charge

455
00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:52,560
Speaker 2: at least.

456
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:57,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, so like player of the tournament odds right now

457
00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 1: Bellingham and Jamal Musiala, who's big amazing is yeah, he's

458
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:04,280
Speaker 1: been and Tony Cruz, like the three of them are

459
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:07,280
Speaker 1: our three way favorites at eight to one.

460
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:09,240
Speaker 2: I don't know what the odds are on Tony Cruiz,

461
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:10,440
Speaker 2: but the sentimental value.

462
00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:12,760
Speaker 1: Of eight he's eight to one too. That's big d

463
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:17,720
Speaker 1: But the thing is, like I remember saying this about England.

464
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:19,520
Speaker 1: I don't know if it was the last euros or

465
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:21,359
Speaker 1: at the World Cup, but we're not going to find

466
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:25,000
Speaker 1: anything else out about them because they're playing Slovakia next,

467
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:29,200
Speaker 1: so they like their group was soft, They're playing Slovakia

468
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:32,200
Speaker 1: next and they're gonna play they'll be favorites against Switzerland.

469
00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:35,240
Speaker 1: So there and then the even the their semi final

470
00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 1: match if they get through is the worst case scenario

471
00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 1: for them would be the Netherlands, who haven't really set

472
00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:41,720
Speaker 1: the Tournament of Light either.

473
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:41,720
Speaker 2: So.

474
00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:47,919
Speaker 1: During qualifying they're not going to a true test until

475
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:49,240
Speaker 1: the finals. If they get there.

476
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:52,680
Speaker 2: There, I think they're plus one fifty to make the finals,

477
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:53,359
Speaker 2: which is.

478
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:55,160
Speaker 5: I think it's kind of an interesting, interesting price.

479
00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:59,040
Speaker 1: It's interesting, it's interesting. It's just it's insane that this

480
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:00,959
Speaker 1: is how the torn that's this is why we love

481
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:03,440
Speaker 1: the tournament. Right, we'll talk. I want to talk about

482
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 1: this when we get to like Austrian Netherlands too. Like

483
00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:07,919
Speaker 1: you go in, you kind of have yourself a plant

484
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:11,439
Speaker 1: and it just gets blown up because it always, you

485
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:13,720
Speaker 1: know that the draw always gets chewed up and spits

486
00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 1: it and it gets spit out like this where you

487
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:18,639
Speaker 1: have Germany, France, Portugal and Spain on one half and

488
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:23,040
Speaker 1: Englands looking alone around the room because the only other

489
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:26,560
Speaker 1: danger they see here is the Netherlands and perhaps Austria.

490
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:31,920
Speaker 1: So yeah, that's a twelve pm kickoff on Sunday, five

491
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:37,439
Speaker 1: pm British summertime, so right in the heat of I

492
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:39,879
Speaker 1: guess day three of Glastonbury for you, Sam, So hopefully

493
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:42,439
Speaker 1: yeah you aren't watching, but maybe you'll be home in

494
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:45,960
Speaker 1: time to watch what should be a wild scene when

495
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:49,840
Speaker 1: Georgia takes on Spain three pm Eastern Time. Spain is

496
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 1: minus five hundred on the three way line. That makes

497
00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 1: them easily the biggest favorite to win their match. In

498
00:24:56,680 --> 00:25:00,160
Speaker 1: ninety George's twelve to one, the draw here six to one,

499
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:05,080
Speaker 1: obviously a tremendous achievement for Georgia, the small country and

500
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:08,359
Speaker 1: the Caucuses, to make it to the knockout stage in

501
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 1: their first ever international tournament. And as we said a

502
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 1: couple times, they did it in a way that is

503
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:17,200
Speaker 1: so different from what we usually see when we see

504
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 1: stories like this pop up, where you know, like when

505
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:21,920
Speaker 1: Greece won the euro in twenty two thousand and four,

506
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,880
Speaker 1: the Pirate ship team, they just sat deep and won

507
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:27,360
Speaker 1: every match by you know, stealing a two to one

508
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:32,480
Speaker 1: win and playing an insane part the bus. It was incredible.

509
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:35,920
Speaker 1: But at the same time, this Georgia team, they are

510
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,280
Speaker 1: playing cocaine ball. It's so much fun to watch them.

511
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:42,159
Speaker 1: The matches the past couple at the end of the

512
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:44,920
Speaker 1: group stage have been awesome, and I think a lot

513
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 1: of it is the stakes and these teams just being like,

514
00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 1: you know, it's screw it, Like what do we have

515
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:50,120
Speaker 1: to lose here and what do you have to gain.

516
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:52,639
Speaker 1: You have a chance to take on Spain in the

517
00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 1: not round of sixteen. Spain is minus one thousand to

518
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 1: advance Georgia six to one. I don't know if there's

519
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:02,440
Speaker 1: anything of betting value. The one thing I'm a little

520
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:08,520
Speaker 1: interested in is the zero zero verse half line. I

521
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:11,239
Speaker 1: think that this could be a situation where these two

522
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:14,960
Speaker 1: teams are just like completely almost don't know what to

523
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 1: do with one another. Right Like, Spain will know, Okay,

524
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:20,960
Speaker 1: this Georgia team, they've been balls to the wall all tournament,

525
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 1: a little nervous about maybe them catching us in transition

526
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 1: and going up one nothing, and we bet on ourselves

527
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:28,640
Speaker 1: to beat them over you know, ninety or on hundred

528
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:31,399
Speaker 1: twenty minutes, just by you know, passing the ball around

529
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:33,679
Speaker 1: them and finally getting a moment of magic from one

530
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:36,879
Speaker 1: of our guys. At the same time, I think Georgia

531
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:40,480
Speaker 1: will be thinking, like, what, how do you play a

532
00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:42,239
Speaker 1: team like this in a knockout stage? Right they've never

533
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:44,159
Speaker 1: done it before. I think that sets up for like

534
00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:48,159
Speaker 1: an interesting feel it, feel yourself, feel your opponent out situation,

535
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 1: at least through the first twenty minutes. And if we

536
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:51,720
Speaker 1: can get to the zero zero at that point, you're

537
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:55,000
Speaker 1: pretty live. So that's one bet I'm thinking of here,

538
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 1: Sam and as we take on Georgia and Spain.

539
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:01,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, look, there's no right or wrong way to progress

540
00:27:01,600 --> 00:27:03,720
Speaker 4: for a tournament, but you'd have to say that Georgia

541
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 4: have done it the right way. It's been great to watch.

542
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 4: I was on the edge of my seat last night.

543
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:11,240
Speaker 4: I was celebrated when that first go went in after

544
00:27:11,280 --> 00:27:13,679
Speaker 4: a couple of minutes. Ranked seventy fourth in the world

545
00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 4: through to the business end of the tournament, and it's

546
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 4: thoroughly deserves You've got Mikatadzi up front, leading the tournament

547
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:23,440
Speaker 4: in terms of goal score two coming from the penalty spot,

548
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:25,600
Speaker 4: so that's a bit of fun. The Tuna win over

549
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,200
Speaker 4: Portugal is one of the biggest upsets that the Euros. Ever,

550
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:31,160
Speaker 4: it makes its way into the top five biggest upsets

551
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:34,399
Speaker 4: odds wise at the Euros since the year two thousand

552
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 4: and Like you said, it doesn't get any easier for

553
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:40,439
Speaker 4: than now playing the only team in the tournament with

554
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 4: one hundred percent record, and I fear that Spain will

555
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:47,760
Speaker 4: do what they do, move the ball about the pitch

556
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:51,200
Speaker 4: from one flank to the other, utilizing their two pacey wingmans,

557
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:55,879
Speaker 4: trying to isolate the two fullbacks whenever possible, and I

558
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,920
Speaker 4: think those two wide men will repeatedly prove a thorn

559
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:03,280
Speaker 4: in the side of those Georgian flanks. The Asian handicap

560
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:06,280
Speaker 4: minus one point seventy five is Spain. I thought that

561
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:09,040
Speaker 4: looked like an interesting way in. I had it down

562
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:13,919
Speaker 4: at minus two Asian handicap, so I thought that that

563
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 4: was a little bit of value, and I assume the

564
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:19,280
Speaker 4: minus two is where the line will end up. I

565
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:23,119
Speaker 4: really hope Georgia can bring a surprise Farret Scalia in

566
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 4: that midfield, who will need to be brave, join the

567
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,400
Speaker 4: attack and have the game of their lives like they

568
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:33,720
Speaker 4: did in match day one against Turkey. They'll need to

569
00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 4: find a net. Mick Taddy will need to find the

570
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 4: net again for the fourth game in a row. So

571
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 4: the look the odds are stacked against them. A lot

572
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:42,160
Speaker 4: of things are going to have to go right against

573
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 4: Spain for Georgia to progress, Spain will have to have

574
00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:48,440
Speaker 4: an off day. I just can't see it happening. It's

575
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 4: been a great story. I really hope they can continue it,

576
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:54,640
Speaker 4: but I don't think they can so in terms of value,

577
00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 4: the Spanish handicap is the standout for me. Minus one

578
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:00,840
Speaker 4: point seventy five at US one nineteen.

579
00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:05,240
Speaker 2: Yeah. So these two teams are actually familiar with each

580
00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 2: other because they played each other during qualifying and Spain

581
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:11,280
Speaker 2: won by a combined score of tended to over those

582
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:11,840
Speaker 2: two matches.

583
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 1: The matches Georgia, they didn't have the magic on their

584
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 1: shoulders yet, that's right.

585
00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:17,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, well they in Georgia. They won seven to one,

586
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:28,240
Speaker 2: and it's Here's the problem is that cocaine ball can

587
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:32,280
Speaker 2: be good, but it also can be really really bad,

588
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 2: and facing an opponent like this is really really bad.

589
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 2: Georgia has allowed the most expected goals so far as

590
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:44,000
Speaker 2: tournament over eight from non penalty situations. When they played Spain,

591
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:49,720
Speaker 2: Spain dominated the middle of the pitch even though Georgia

592
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 2: was playing super super compact. They hanged quick passes right

593
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 2: through them. They got the opening goal, and then the

594
00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 2: damn broke and the goals just kept flooding in because

595
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:05,200
Speaker 2: when you are a team that is I've said this before,

596
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 2: but when you are a team that is primarily set

597
00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 2: up to play low block, transitional style, at least that's

598
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:14,960
Speaker 2: how you played during qualifying, and then suddenly you change

599
00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 2: it and you say, you know what, we're gonna try

600
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:17,800
Speaker 2: to build out of the back a little bit. We're

601
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:19,640
Speaker 2: gonna be a little bit more aggressive out of possession.

602
00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 2: They've gotten the results, but they are due for a

603
00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:27,120
Speaker 2: lot of negative aggression, and especially facing a team like

604
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 2: Spain that once you go behind, not only do they

605
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 2: not allow you to have a ball, but they're an

606
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:35,080
Speaker 2: elite counter pressing side that can take it away from you,

607
00:30:35,360 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 2: just like they did with three goals that came off

608
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 2: of high turnover situations in that seven to one loss,

609
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 2: and through Georgia's three group stage matches check you have

610
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:51,000
Speaker 2: forced twenty eight high recoveries. In Portland Turkey both forced eighteen.

611
00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 2: So an elite counterpressing tide like Spain is going to

612
00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 2: cause a lot of problems. Also, when you play that

613
00:30:57,800 --> 00:31:00,520
Speaker 2: compact type of structure, you leave yourself in one v

614
00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:04,200
Speaker 2: one situations out wide. We'll in that match, Jamaal and

615
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 2: Nico Williams just killed them over and over again and

616
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 2: created chances. And also, guys, guess who scored three goals

617
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 2: in that seven to one win, Alvara Morozza So and

618
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 2: the Golden Boot is very much live right now. It

619
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 2: is so live. So if you're somebody I'm not sure

620
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 2: what Marazzaz odds right now, I'm pretty sure he's probably

621
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 2: still around where he was pre tournament. If you're not

622
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:30,040
Speaker 2: in on him yet, this is his chance they're either

623
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 2: they're going to send it a ton of crosses in

624
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 2: this match, probably and he's going to be on the

625
00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 2: end of a lot of those. So for I mean,

626
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:40,440
Speaker 2: for the worst defensive team in this entire tournament, like

627
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:43,160
Speaker 2: the clock is going to strike midnight, I like Spain

628
00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:44,600
Speaker 2: minus two at plus one ten.

629
00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 1: Well, we'll be rooting for you, Georgia. Marada is twelve

630
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:51,720
Speaker 1: to one actually to win the Golden Oh gosh, yeah,

631
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 1: but don't worry. We'll we'll talk a little more Golden

632
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:54,960
Speaker 1: boot in a little bit.

633
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:58,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, like, so this is the match, right,

634
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 2: like the one where you see like somebody's gonna cut

635
00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 2: up right exactly crooking number right. Well, Marad is getting

636
00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 2: about most of Spain shots about four point four ninety.

637
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 2: So I wish I could find somebody else on Spain

638
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:13,520
Speaker 2: to potentially do. But they're just they're getting their best

639
00:32:13,520 --> 00:32:15,280
Speaker 2: player of the ball. That's as simple as that.

640
00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:20,000
Speaker 1: Exactly. Yeah, I've got some go in the booth thoughts.

641
00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 1: We'll get to it to Okay. That moves us on

642
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:29,480
Speaker 1: from Sunday to Monday. Another couple games here. That should

643
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 1: be just tons of fun because you'd expect everybody to

644
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 1: be enamored with or excuse me not to be enamored

645
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 1: the opposite of enamored, but to be very against Belgium.

646
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:42,640
Speaker 1: Here they're taking on France at noon Eastern time on

647
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:45,600
Speaker 1: July first. France is minus one ten on the three

648
00:32:45,600 --> 00:32:47,680
Speaker 1: way line, Belgium plus three fifty. The draw here is

649
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:51,600
Speaker 1: plus two twenty to advance the French or minus two

650
00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 1: twenty five Belgium plus one seventy five. I'm just say it,

651
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 1: and you might be surprised, or maybe you're not. I

652
00:32:58,160 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 1: think Belgium is a great bet to win the tournament

653
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 1: right now at thirty three to one. They've been terrible,

654
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:06,320
Speaker 1: but that doesn't mean that they can't get better. They're

655
00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:09,239
Speaker 1: really good. They have a lot of talented players, and

656
00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:12,280
Speaker 1: I know the draw stinks, but but I make this

657
00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:14,560
Speaker 1: point in tennis tournaments all the time that when you're

658
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:16,440
Speaker 1: put into the quarter of death or the group of

659
00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:18,880
Speaker 1: death or whatever, what it does is it requires you

660
00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:21,200
Speaker 1: to play really well. So if you do get through

661
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:23,200
Speaker 1: France and then Portugal, it means that you're going to

662
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:26,160
Speaker 1: be in top four when we get to the semi finals,

663
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:28,800
Speaker 1: and you can if you've already beat those two teams.

664
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 1: Why can't you beat Germany or Spain. So this is

665
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:35,760
Speaker 1: a team that was in the teams before the draw,

666
00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:38,000
Speaker 1: before the round of sixteen got.

667
00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:40,320
Speaker 2: Sussed out.

668
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 1: It was a team that was in that area before

669
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 1: the tournament started, and now they're double the number. And

670
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 1: I know that they've had trouble finishing chances, but so

671
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 1: much of that has just been Lukaku getting varred off

672
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:54,400
Speaker 1: or being unlucky that let's say they had just run

673
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:58,560
Speaker 1: away with that first match against Slovakia because the Lukaku's

674
00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 1: goal stood or he finished his answers. We're having a

675
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 1: very different conversation about Belgium right now. We're not talking about,

676
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 1: oh my god, this team has been just a major disappointment.

677
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:09,239
Speaker 1: We're just like, well, will they be able to make

678
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:12,680
Speaker 1: amends for the disappointment in the past few tournaments that

679
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:15,400
Speaker 1: they've had with this golden generation that's now aged out

680
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:19,320
Speaker 1: and France hasn't been all that convincing, but they haven't.

681
00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 1: So maybe I'm crazy, exam, but I think that Belgium

682
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:25,960
Speaker 1: at thirty three to one, if you had told me

683
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:28,120
Speaker 1: that you were going to get hand me at Belgium

684
00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:29,840
Speaker 1: ticket thirty three to one at the start of the

685
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:33,120
Speaker 1: round of sixteen before the tournament started. I want to

686
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:36,400
Speaker 1: care who they played in this section of the tournament.

687
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 1: I would have taken it. So I like this number here.

688
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 1: I think Belgium is set up to be a team

689
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:44,400
Speaker 1: that all of a sudden springs to life. They've got

690
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 1: the talent to do it.

691
00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:48,960
Speaker 4: Maybe you are crazy a little bit, Michael, Yeah, I.

692
00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:51,600
Speaker 2: Mean he he's definitely greazy.

693
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 4: I've disagreed with you once before with Romania, and I

694
00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:57,480
Speaker 4: don't really want to get burned again and I don't

695
00:34:57,520 --> 00:34:59,320
Speaker 4: want this to be clipped up and put on social

696
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:03,319
Speaker 4: media's but I don't think well, Belgium to win the

697
00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:07,600
Speaker 4: tournament's probably something that I would sidestep. My bet this

698
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:11,360
Speaker 4: time round is not Romolu Lukaku any time go scorer.

699
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 4: I'm going to sidestep that as well. I've had enough

700
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:18,200
Speaker 4: of that. But looking at Belgium Ukraine, I thought they

701
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 4: were really quite poor. Like their press is what stood

702
00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:24,200
Speaker 4: out for me. Ukraine, especially in the second half piece

703
00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 4: together a few decent passages playing invaded what was a

704
00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:32,719
Speaker 4: pretty poor pet press. This was Belgium's least intense defensive

705
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:36,719
Speaker 4: display in terms of PPDA passes per defensive action at

706
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:39,799
Speaker 4: any of the past four major tournaments, and if that

707
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:43,600
Speaker 4: continues here they'll be in trouble. I don't trust this

708
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:47,240
Speaker 4: Belgium side personally, I never really have in recent memory.

709
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 4: At major tournaments. If you keep failing to take your

710
00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:53,200
Speaker 4: chances in the knockouts, you're going to be sent home.

711
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 4: This has happened. That's what's happened so far for Belgium

712
00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:59,239
Speaker 4: in terms of getting results over the line, and it

713
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:02,440
Speaker 4: means that they've stuttered into a Round as sixteen tie

714
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 4: with France, and there's probably what they deserve really, but

715
00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:08,879
Speaker 4: we shouldn't forget you mentioned it, Michael. France haven't turned

716
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:11,080
Speaker 4: up at this tournament yet. They've only scored two goals

717
00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:13,279
Speaker 4: and the whole of the group stage that is poor

718
00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:16,640
Speaker 4: by their standards. They've been without Mbappe for two games,

719
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:19,040
Speaker 4: who is now backing on the score sheet, so that

720
00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:21,920
Speaker 4: was probably given them a bit of a lift. If

721
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:25,720
Speaker 4: you look at Belgium, they've just looked vulnerable or tournament.

722
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 4: They were poor against Romania defensively in match day one.

723
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:31,640
Speaker 4: The DESCO had to make two changes to his back line.

724
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:34,879
Speaker 4: Looked half decent match day two, but again not good enough.

725
00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:37,839
Speaker 4: On the whole against Ukraine, they looked fragile. And if

726
00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:39,800
Speaker 4: France moved the ball quick and take the game to

727
00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:42,600
Speaker 4: Belgium out widen through the middle. I just I really

728
00:36:42,600 --> 00:36:45,120
Speaker 4: fancy them here, and I was surprised at France's price.

729
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:48,600
Speaker 4: I had them at around maybe one point eight, maybe

730
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:52,480
Speaker 4: a touch shorter, anything near evens on the minus zero

731
00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:55,440
Speaker 4: five Asian handicap or the straight win. I think it's

732
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:56,399
Speaker 4: something we've got to take.

733
00:36:56,840 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, one other note I want to make too is

734
00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:01,840
Speaker 1: if Jim is able to pull off the upset against France,

735
00:37:02,840 --> 00:37:06,600
Speaker 1: likely to play Roberto Martinez in Portugal. So here's some

736
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:11,279
Speaker 1: petsil of paper handicapping, little motivation, little familiarity. But yeah,

737
00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 1: I mean they they've been they've been bad, like there's

738
00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:15,439
Speaker 1: no getting around it. They've been poor. But I think

739
00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:17,879
Speaker 1: that also means that there's room to improve. And if

740
00:37:17,880 --> 00:37:21,320
Speaker 1: you've showed all your flaws already, maybe it makes it

741
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:23,600
Speaker 1: a little easier for the management staff to be like, Okay,

742
00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:25,880
Speaker 1: we've been terrible in this area, in this area, and

743
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 1: maybe Lukaku, can you just start scoring? Would be helpful. Bjay,

744
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:32,640
Speaker 1: are you going to go back to Lucacu anytime goal

745
00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:33,280
Speaker 1: scoring here.

746
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:36,239
Speaker 5: No, not having I'm done unfortunately.

747
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 1: You know what that means, folks, You know what that means.

748
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I get start laddering the goals for him. Yeah, no,

749
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:43,279
Speaker 2: I tried the ladder against.

750
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:45,160
Speaker 5: Ukraine and they were they were terrible.

751
00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:47,040
Speaker 1: He didn't even get when bared off.

752
00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:50,279
Speaker 2: I know it was. It was really fun like so

753
00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:52,920
Speaker 2: when it stops being fun, that's when I stopped betting it.

754
00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:56,560
Speaker 2: So so yeah, I'm with Sam. I like France on

755
00:37:56,600 --> 00:37:59,320
Speaker 2: the money line people in the show. No, I'm not

756
00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 2: afraid of of being wrong. So you can clip this

757
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 2: if you want to if I'm dead wrong. So France

758
00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:11,120
Speaker 2: has created five point one expected goals from open play

759
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:15,839
Speaker 2: or non penalty situations and they have not scored. They

760
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:18,520
Speaker 2: are very overdue. They have created the chances they have

761
00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:21,200
Speaker 2: been there. They created over two against Austria, one and

762
00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:26,000
Speaker 2: a half against Poland, excuse me not Poland, against the Netherlands,

763
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 2: and then again against Poland one point seven.

764
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 5: From non penalty situations.

765
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:33,160
Speaker 2: They're still very, very very good. And that's you know,

766
00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:35,760
Speaker 2: that's third most in this tournament so far. And Bope

767
00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 2: is back in the lineup. He looked good against Poland.

768
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:43,200
Speaker 2: For Belgium though, they're going to be in a very

769
00:38:43,200 --> 00:38:45,680
Speaker 2: different type of situation right and maybe it's one of

770
00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:47,719
Speaker 2: the suits to Michael, I don't know, but they're not

771
00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:49,879
Speaker 2: gonna be controlling a lot of possession here, at least

772
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:51,680
Speaker 2: I don't think they will be. They're gonna be the

773
00:38:51,719 --> 00:38:54,919
Speaker 2: ones that either have to try to press France, which

774
00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:56,680
Speaker 2: is like a death sentence because they're just gonna play

775
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:59,640
Speaker 2: balls over the top to Himbape and just punish them,

776
00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:01,880
Speaker 2: or they're going to have to sit back, and honestly,

777
00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:05,080
Speaker 2: I think Belgium was back for it is just garbage.

778
00:39:05,560 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 2: Wilt Face was terrible for Lester when they were in

779
00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:12,480
Speaker 2: the Premier League. Jambertongan is now thirty seven taka excuse me,

780
00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:17,080
Speaker 2: Tre who plays for Wren, is an inexperienced defender, and

781
00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:20,080
Speaker 2: Castane is more of a ball progressing right back. So

782
00:39:20,239 --> 00:39:22,080
Speaker 2: you have those four guys who now have to sit

783
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:25,359
Speaker 2: and sit deep and try to defend this France team.

784
00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 2: I get that Belgium's got great ball stopping in the

785
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:29,759
Speaker 2: middle of the pitch, but the ball is going to

786
00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:31,680
Speaker 2: go out wide. It's not going to go through the middle,

787
00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:35,719
Speaker 2: It's going to go to Embape. So I really really

788
00:39:35,760 --> 00:39:40,239
Speaker 2: concerned how they're actually going to defend this. So they've

789
00:39:40,239 --> 00:39:44,240
Speaker 2: sat deep once during qualifying they went ahead against Austria.

790
00:39:45,120 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 2: It was at Austria, and they sat deep. They ended

791
00:39:48,239 --> 00:39:52,279
Speaker 2: up conceding two point five expectacles of fourteen shots in

792
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:56,880
Speaker 2: Austria controlled sixty percent of the possession. So I really

793
00:39:56,920 --> 00:39:58,799
Speaker 2: like France at minus one ten. I think they are

794
00:39:58,880 --> 00:40:02,759
Speaker 2: undervalued because they haven't been able to finish in front

795
00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:06,760
Speaker 2: of net and they also have a center back pairing

796
00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:10,280
Speaker 2: that can neutralize the cocu and really what was happening,

797
00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:13,560
Speaker 2: honestly is they were like Ukraine was just doubling thecacku

798
00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 2: because there's nobody else from Belgium that's getting in the

799
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:19,759
Speaker 2: box right, like we just have Doku. Really frustrates me too,

800
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:22,880
Speaker 2: because he will just dribble and dribble and dribble to

801
00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:26,319
Speaker 2: absolutely nothing. It just happens over and over and over again,

802
00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 2: and it just drives me insane. And yes it works

803
00:40:28,680 --> 00:40:31,080
Speaker 2: for city, but in this type of scenario where you

804
00:40:31,160 --> 00:40:33,040
Speaker 2: just need to like cross the ball instead of just

805
00:40:33,080 --> 00:40:37,799
Speaker 2: stop freaking dribbling it, it's just so frustrating. So I'm

806
00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:40,719
Speaker 2: on France with Sam at minus one ten.

807
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:44,320
Speaker 1: And I would be remiss if I did it mentioned

808
00:40:44,320 --> 00:40:48,040
Speaker 1: that we have the World Cup of Darts this this

809
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:50,680
Speaker 1: this weekend as well. It's taking place in Germany. What

810
00:40:50,760 --> 00:40:53,480
Speaker 1: a like a mess or stroke by the PDC who

811
00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:58,040
Speaker 1: know how to suck the entertainment like raise it to

812
00:40:58,080 --> 00:41:00,880
Speaker 1: a level like nobody else. A big darts guy. I

813
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:05,080
Speaker 1: have to mention that Team Belgium is always there's always

814
00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:07,680
Speaker 1: so much drama with Team Belgium because the two players

815
00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:09,359
Speaker 1: that play for their World Cup team, they don't talk

816
00:41:09,400 --> 00:41:12,280
Speaker 1: to each other. They're not in speaking terms, Dmitri Vandenberg

817
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:15,319
Speaker 1: and Kim Hibricks, and so last year they made it

818
00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:17,080
Speaker 1: to the semi finals without saying a word to one

819
00:41:17,120 --> 00:41:20,360
Speaker 1: another on the stage, and this year Hibricks will be

820
00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:24,440
Speaker 1: playing despite and BJ You're gonna love this. He broke

821
00:41:24,520 --> 00:41:25,200
Speaker 1: his shoulder.

822
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:27,600
Speaker 2: Oh no, he broke his.

823
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:30,040
Speaker 1: Shoulder and you want to guess how he broke it

824
00:41:30,120 --> 00:41:35,080
Speaker 1: by watching his team Royal Antwerp play play Union Saint

825
00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:38,520
Speaker 1: Jeluise in the Belgium Cup final and got jumped by

826
00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:40,480
Speaker 1: a bunch of hooligans and he broke his shoulder. Oh

827
00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:44,960
Speaker 1: but he's ready to go Team Belgium on Team I

828
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:47,400
Speaker 1: like Belgium. I think they're twenty eight to one to

829
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:49,040
Speaker 1: win the tournament, or maybe shorter than that. And then

830
00:41:49,040 --> 00:41:53,840
Speaker 1: I like Northern Ireland. Well Michael, yes, yes, yeah, the double,

831
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:58,840
Speaker 1: the Belgium double. Anyways, so there's your World Cup of

832
00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:05,239
Speaker 1: Darts podcasts. Within the Wondergol podcast, Portugal and Slovenia up

833
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:08,920
Speaker 1: next three pm Eastern Time on Monday, July first. This

834
00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:11,400
Speaker 1: is another one. I like to draw a little bit here.

835
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:14,120
Speaker 1: Slovenia just did it to England. I know Portugal is

836
00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:16,440
Speaker 1: a very different animal to drag to the deep end

837
00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:18,800
Speaker 1: of the pool, but we saw with the Czech the

838
00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:20,879
Speaker 1: gaming is the Czech Republic. They can be a team

839
00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 1: that just gets frustrated and the offensive thirty. It can

840
00:42:24,120 --> 00:42:27,400
Speaker 1: take some time for them to get to break through. Nonetheless,

841
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:29,399
Speaker 1: Portugal's minus two to fifty on the three way line,

842
00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:32,760
Speaker 1: Slovenia plus seven to fifty. The draw here is plus

843
00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:35,360
Speaker 1: three to fifty. We mentioned it throughout this tournament that

844
00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:38,439
Speaker 1: one of the great things about the way this euro

845
00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:43,960
Speaker 1: has gone is a lot of the minnos so to speak, Georgia, Slovakia, Slovenia,

846
00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:47,799
Speaker 1: et cetera. They've really punched up well Romania, and the

847
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:50,960
Speaker 1: fact that Georgia and Romania did what they did, I

848
00:42:50,960 --> 00:42:54,360
Speaker 1: think has taken away some of the accolades that Slovenia

849
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:57,560
Speaker 1: would have earned if they were, you know, the smallest

850
00:42:57,600 --> 00:42:59,920
Speaker 1: team to get through. But they're through. They've got it

851
00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:03,319
Speaker 1: tough one against Portugal here. I like the draw. I

852
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:05,919
Speaker 1: think that this team is set up. Slovenia will set

853
00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:08,239
Speaker 1: themselves up to just drag this and turn it into

854
00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 1: a rack fight. So plus three fifty to me is

855
00:43:10,520 --> 00:43:13,400
Speaker 1: pretty good. Portugals might have six hundred two advanced Slovenia

856
00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:17,799
Speaker 1: four to one. Anything here in what should be I

857
00:43:17,800 --> 00:43:23,360
Speaker 1: think a pretty of the big favorites versus underdogs. I

858
00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:25,560
Speaker 1: think this one will be the most interesting watch because

859
00:43:25,600 --> 00:43:28,919
Speaker 1: I've got I've got a feeling Portugal is just gonna

860
00:43:28,920 --> 00:43:30,600
Speaker 1: get frustrated and frustrated and frustrated.

861
00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:32,800
Speaker 4: That is a possibility. This is one for me, But

862
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:37,680
Speaker 4: I really wasn't too sure how the game's going to go.

863
00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:41,279
Speaker 4: We've got Portugal's heavy favorites and with a minus one

864
00:43:41,280 --> 00:43:43,920
Speaker 4: point two to five Asian handicap, if you think they're

865
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:47,120
Speaker 4: really going to take the game to Slovenia successfully, then

866
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 4: maybe that's the way you'd want to go. I'm not

867
00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:51,440
Speaker 4: too sure myself. I look at Portugal winning over one

868
00:43:51,480 --> 00:43:54,040
Speaker 4: point five goals. That's at minus one three nine, which

869
00:43:54,600 --> 00:43:58,800
Speaker 4: looks okay, but maybe a little bit short for this podcast.

870
00:43:59,080 --> 00:44:02,600
Speaker 4: The Georgia game just gone. Look, it wasn't ideal. But

871
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:05,239
Speaker 4: if you can take a positive from it, if you're

872
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:09,279
Speaker 4: Roberto Martinez, is that he knows who he can rely on,

873
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:12,560
Speaker 4: he knows who to bring in and rotate when maybe

874
00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:15,560
Speaker 4: he needs to change something in the game. Yeah, Felix

875
00:44:15,600 --> 00:44:19,680
Speaker 4: look good. Pedro Netta at fullback not so sure, but

876
00:44:19,880 --> 00:44:23,400
Speaker 4: he also looks bright and he's obviously in form And

877
00:44:23,520 --> 00:44:26,560
Speaker 4: I'll just keep this brief, Michael, I'm not really interested

878
00:44:26,560 --> 00:44:28,360
Speaker 4: in taking any of the early prices that are have

879
00:44:28,440 --> 00:44:30,840
Speaker 4: in front of me, so I think when when that happens,

880
00:44:30,840 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 4: it's it's what it is to pass.

881
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:36,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna pass too. Maybe look at it, maybe

882
00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:40,120
Speaker 2: look at the under here. It's kind of the same

883
00:44:40,160 --> 00:44:43,920
Speaker 2: story with Portugal, like they're just kind of settling for crosses,

884
00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:48,680
Speaker 2: which is not generally a great method at the international level.

885
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:51,360
Speaker 2: It means you just if you can't, you know, penetrate

886
00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:54,280
Speaker 2: the middle and exposed teams especially a team like Slovenia

887
00:44:54,320 --> 00:44:57,279
Speaker 2: that's just gonna sit deep and now let you play

888
00:44:57,320 --> 00:44:59,839
Speaker 2: through the middle. Like I'm just gonna come down. You

889
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:01,880
Speaker 2: can't Portugal get on the end of these crosses and

890
00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:05,200
Speaker 2: actually convert some of them. They were incredibly inefficient against Georgia.

891
00:45:05,280 --> 00:45:12,000
Speaker 2: They had one excuse me, two open play shots over

892
00:45:12,040 --> 00:45:16,520
Speaker 2: a point two XG rating. George also had two, So like,

893
00:45:16,840 --> 00:45:19,560
Speaker 2: you can take twenty two shots, but if a lot

894
00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:22,840
Speaker 2: of them are just of no value, then it doesn't

895
00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:25,560
Speaker 2: really mean much. So it's just gonna come down to

896
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:27,799
Speaker 2: can Portugal get on the end of these crosses? And

897
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:30,640
Speaker 2: if they can't, well, the longer this goes zero zero,

898
00:45:30,680 --> 00:45:35,560
Speaker 2: the better chance that Slovenia has of hitting a cessco banger.

899
00:45:36,239 --> 00:45:38,400
Speaker 2: Maybe they get through, who knows. But the price is

900
00:45:38,400 --> 00:45:41,080
Speaker 2: honestly pretty short here for Portugal. Honestly, like when I

901
00:45:41,080 --> 00:45:42,719
Speaker 2: was looking through this, I was kind of frustrated because

902
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:44,880
Speaker 2: I was hoping I could get you know, Slovenia plus

903
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:46,600
Speaker 2: one and a half at at a pretty decent price,

904
00:45:46,640 --> 00:45:50,000
Speaker 2: but we can't even get that right now, so so yeah,

905
00:45:50,040 --> 00:45:50,880
Speaker 2: I have to pass.

906
00:45:52,040 --> 00:45:56,279
Speaker 1: Okay, So that's the Monday Games wrapped Tuesday, which is

907
00:45:56,320 --> 00:46:00,640
Speaker 1: The last day of the Round of sixteen starts Romania

908
00:46:00,680 --> 00:46:04,040
Speaker 1: and Netherlands twelve pm Eastern Time, five pm over there

909
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:09,120
Speaker 1: in Britain. As you'd imagine, Netherlands is a pretty robust favorite,

910
00:46:09,160 --> 00:46:12,160
Speaker 1: minus two twenty five on the the three way line.

911
00:46:12,160 --> 00:46:14,400
Speaker 1: I love that they are. You know, they're technically the

912
00:46:14,400 --> 00:46:16,759
Speaker 1: away team because Romania won their group, so they are

913
00:46:16,800 --> 00:46:21,399
Speaker 1: the quote unquote only road favorite here at a neutral site.

914
00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:25,279
Speaker 1: But nonetheless Romania plus six fifty on the three way line.

915
00:46:25,320 --> 00:46:28,279
Speaker 1: The draw here plus three thirty three to advance, and

916
00:46:28,480 --> 00:46:32,400
Speaker 1: the Netherlands is minus five hundred and the Romania is

917
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:35,759
Speaker 1: plus three fifty to get through. And like, you know,

918
00:46:35,800 --> 00:46:38,000
Speaker 1: there's one other team we'll talk about in the last

919
00:46:38,000 --> 00:46:40,799
Speaker 1: match or two in terms of like outrights. One team

920
00:46:40,840 --> 00:46:43,840
Speaker 1: that certainly caught a huge break from their draw was

921
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:46,719
Speaker 1: the Netherlands. They finished third, they get rewarded for it

922
00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:53,520
Speaker 1: with a quartette of Romania, Austria and Turkey. So a

923
00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:57,160
Speaker 1: really big boost for the Netherlands, even though they failed

924
00:46:57,239 --> 00:47:00,440
Speaker 1: to really inspire much confidence. And I think you could

925
00:47:00,440 --> 00:47:02,320
Speaker 1: say that a lot about almost every team except for

926
00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:05,480
Speaker 1: maybe with Spain in Germany. So far, Sam any thoughts here,

927
00:47:05,480 --> 00:47:08,279
Speaker 1: I don't think there's much to get into in terms

928
00:47:08,280 --> 00:47:08,800
Speaker 1: of these lines.

929
00:47:09,760 --> 00:47:11,680
Speaker 4: I agree, this is the portrait game with the two

930
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:14,640
Speaker 4: matches I really didn't fancy getting involved in. Don't fancy

931
00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:17,080
Speaker 4: much in this game. Fair play to Romania, the top

932
00:47:17,120 --> 00:47:19,480
Speaker 4: of the group, but like you said, just to shame

933
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:21,760
Speaker 4: their pit against the side from one of the toughest

934
00:47:21,760 --> 00:47:26,600
Speaker 4: groups in Germany, the Netherlands at that price heavy favorites. No,

935
00:47:26,920 --> 00:47:29,279
Speaker 4: not sure about that. The plus one point twenty five

936
00:47:29,320 --> 00:47:34,640
Speaker 4: on Romania is semi appealing but also a little bit concerning.

937
00:47:34,719 --> 00:47:36,560
Speaker 4: At the same time, that's not a bet I'd like

938
00:47:36,640 --> 00:47:38,960
Speaker 4: to have on and watch because I can imagine it

939
00:47:39,000 --> 00:47:42,560
Speaker 4: would be a bit hairy. But yeah, Michael, overall it's

940
00:47:42,600 --> 00:47:43,880
Speaker 4: a passed from me. I won't go on.

941
00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:49,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm passing as well. I think Sam right that

942
00:47:50,160 --> 00:47:52,040
Speaker 2: in the fact the Netherlands might be getting a little

943
00:47:52,040 --> 00:47:54,320
Speaker 2: too high and we might get to a situation where

944
00:47:55,080 --> 00:48:01,480
Speaker 2: we could bet them. But you know, they've so they

945
00:48:01,520 --> 00:48:05,080
Speaker 2: faced the one team kind of similar they faced was Poland, right,

946
00:48:05,080 --> 00:48:07,840
Speaker 2: and they beat them to one. But like I mentioned,

947
00:48:07,960 --> 00:48:10,920
Speaker 2: you know, they got fourteen penalty box shots against Poland,

948
00:48:11,040 --> 00:48:13,760
Speaker 2: but they only created one point four expected goals total

949
00:48:13,800 --> 00:48:15,760
Speaker 2: for the entire match, so a lot of their shots

950
00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:19,759
Speaker 2: in total were of very very low quality. You know,

951
00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:23,120
Speaker 2: Romania is an interesting team to say the least. They

952
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:27,680
Speaker 2: they do play a high line, which against the Netherlands

953
00:48:28,160 --> 00:48:31,320
Speaker 2: might be okay, Like, it might be a good strategy

954
00:48:31,360 --> 00:48:33,640
Speaker 2: with the Netherlands dropping so many guys deep and build

955
00:48:33,719 --> 00:48:36,200
Speaker 2: up and depending on who they're going to start up top, like,

956
00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:40,879
Speaker 2: it may end up working out. But again, I can

957
00:48:40,920 --> 00:48:43,440
Speaker 2: just see Gagpo getting through and scoring and then you know,

958
00:48:44,440 --> 00:48:48,040
Speaker 2: that's all she wrote. So uh for me to pass.

959
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:50,760
Speaker 5: I hope Romania wins though, Michael.

960
00:48:51,600 --> 00:48:54,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, now my levet for Romania ends here because I

961
00:48:54,719 --> 00:48:58,240
Speaker 1: will be rooting on the Netherlands and that future ticket

962
00:48:58,800 --> 00:49:01,600
Speaker 1: as well, which of course is coupled with Brisbane to

963
00:49:01,600 --> 00:49:06,440
Speaker 1: win the AFL. But so Austria and Turkey is where

964
00:49:06,520 --> 00:49:11,640
Speaker 1: we'll finish this one. This is the Turkey Czech Republic

965
00:49:11,719 --> 00:49:15,480
Speaker 1: match was just absolutely bonkers. I don't I don't know

966
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:18,120
Speaker 1: who's gonna play for Turkey. I still can't figure it

967
00:49:18,120 --> 00:49:20,560
Speaker 1: out because there were so many yellow cards and people

968
00:49:20,600 --> 00:49:22,680
Speaker 1: missing the next match, and then they were rescinding them

969
00:49:22,719 --> 00:49:25,280
Speaker 1: and changing them around. I didn't know who the ref

970
00:49:25,360 --> 00:49:27,640
Speaker 1: was even raising his arm at half the time, but

971
00:49:27,680 --> 00:49:31,040
Speaker 1: he had his arm raised the entire the entire match,

972
00:49:31,080 --> 00:49:33,319
Speaker 1: it seemed like. And one of the commentators over here,

973
00:49:34,200 --> 00:49:36,000
Speaker 1: and I'm sorry, I can't remember who it was, but

974
00:49:36,040 --> 00:49:38,080
Speaker 1: he's like, I'm actually kind of happy that the ref

975
00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:40,280
Speaker 1: has lost control of this match, because it's just added

976
00:49:40,320 --> 00:49:43,840
Speaker 1: to the absolute drama and it's it was a crazy, crazy,

977
00:49:44,040 --> 00:49:47,640
Speaker 1: crazy international tournament match between Turkey and Czech Republic, and

978
00:49:47,680 --> 00:49:50,399
Speaker 1: now they go to take on Austria. Austria's minus one

979
00:49:50,440 --> 00:49:53,600
Speaker 1: twelve on the three way line, Turkey plus three thirty

980
00:49:53,600 --> 00:49:56,480
Speaker 1: three the draw here plus two forty two advance minus

981
00:49:56,480 --> 00:49:59,160
Speaker 1: two twenty five on Austria plus one seventy five on Turkey.

982
00:49:59,600 --> 00:50:02,680
Speaker 1: I think this is a situation where it looks like, yeah,

983
00:50:02,760 --> 00:50:06,040
Speaker 1: Austria has been one of the more impressive relative to

984
00:50:06,120 --> 00:50:08,760
Speaker 1: expectations teams of the tournament. They get a great draw,

985
00:50:09,040 --> 00:50:11,560
Speaker 1: their number is now down to sixteen one, six to

986
00:50:11,640 --> 00:50:14,840
Speaker 1: one to win the tournament. Feels a little crazy to me,

987
00:50:16,440 --> 00:50:19,480
Speaker 1: but they have been impressive. I do think that when

988
00:50:19,480 --> 00:50:21,279
Speaker 1: you look at these two teams in a vacuum, had

989
00:50:21,280 --> 00:50:23,480
Speaker 1: this been the first match of the tournament, right, these

990
00:50:23,520 --> 00:50:26,520
Speaker 1: two teams that played each other match one. Just even

991
00:50:26,520 --> 00:50:28,440
Speaker 1: with the roster that Turkey is going to have to play,

992
00:50:29,040 --> 00:50:31,400
Speaker 1: I don't think the odds would be this wide. But

993
00:50:31,480 --> 00:50:33,399
Speaker 1: this match has chaos forritten all over it. So rather

994
00:50:33,440 --> 00:50:36,320
Speaker 1: than back Turkey to come out ahead in what should

995
00:50:36,320 --> 00:50:40,160
Speaker 1: be just a fury a match, like just furiously going

996
00:50:40,200 --> 00:50:42,920
Speaker 1: back and forth, I like, I think I'm gonna take

997
00:50:42,920 --> 00:50:45,120
Speaker 1: a shot on like an exact score, and you can

998
00:50:45,280 --> 00:50:48,560
Speaker 1: read at Action Network. Nick Giffin puts out his projections

999
00:50:48,600 --> 00:50:51,360
Speaker 1: and we'll throw out like the best bets for correct

1000
00:50:51,360 --> 00:50:53,759
Speaker 1: scores in these matches. For me, seventy to one on

1001
00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:57,560
Speaker 1: three to three looks really interesting. But because I see

1002
00:50:57,600 --> 00:50:59,879
Speaker 1: tons of goals here, Sam, I think that this thing

1003
00:50:59,920 --> 00:51:02,040
Speaker 1: is going to be off the rails from the second

1004
00:51:02,360 --> 00:51:04,760
Speaker 1: the rep kicks it off with the whistle.

1005
00:51:05,080 --> 00:51:07,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, love it. You're kind of matching my thinking, Michael.

1006
00:51:07,719 --> 00:51:12,840
Speaker 4: I've got over two point five goals plus no minus

1007
00:51:12,880 --> 00:51:16,600
Speaker 4: one ten. So Austria yeah through to the knockouts. As

1008
00:51:16,600 --> 00:51:19,879
Speaker 4: group winners. We'd said they'd be a tough nut to crack.

1009
00:51:19,920 --> 00:51:22,359
Speaker 4: We said they cause each other, each team's in their

1010
00:51:22,360 --> 00:51:25,279
Speaker 4: group problems and they have that group mentality, like a

1011
00:51:25,360 --> 00:51:28,200
Speaker 4: complete knowingness behind our The manager wants them to blay.

1012
00:51:28,280 --> 00:51:31,760
Speaker 4: You can see it in every game and here stylistically,

1013
00:51:32,040 --> 00:51:34,840
Speaker 4: Austria and Turkey should put on a show for the neutral.

1014
00:51:35,120 --> 00:51:38,360
Speaker 4: Vincenzo Montella wants aside to build up play from the

1015
00:51:38,440 --> 00:51:42,200
Speaker 4: back and that's a dangerous game in itself against the Austrians.

1016
00:51:42,239 --> 00:51:45,040
Speaker 4: As we know the recent friendly between these two st

1017
00:51:45,080 --> 00:51:47,759
Speaker 4: Austria force double digit high turn of us through a

1018
00:51:47,880 --> 00:51:51,560
Speaker 4: high targeted press and Austria won that game six to one,

1019
00:51:52,160 --> 00:51:54,640
Speaker 4: and that six one defeat was one of the Turkey's

1020
00:51:54,640 --> 00:51:57,360
Speaker 4: heaviest defeats as a nation in their history, and that

1021
00:51:57,480 --> 00:52:00,880
Speaker 4: was only in March. So Turkey will be somewhat alarmed.

1022
00:52:00,880 --> 00:52:03,360
Speaker 4: That is Austria they've got in the first round of knockouts.

1023
00:52:03,440 --> 00:52:06,840
Speaker 4: And as an Englishman on over the moon, that Austria

1024
00:52:06,880 --> 00:52:10,000
Speaker 4: and nowhere near us until the semis at least. And

1025
00:52:10,080 --> 00:52:13,560
Speaker 4: if you look going forward, Turkey has managed to create

1026
00:52:13,600 --> 00:52:16,520
Speaker 4: five point zero expected goes that has them robin shoulders

1027
00:52:16,520 --> 00:52:19,360
Speaker 4: with Germany, Spain, Portugal and France after the group stages,

1028
00:52:19,400 --> 00:52:23,000
Speaker 4: whilst Austria on't too far away off that total with

1029
00:52:23,160 --> 00:52:25,880
Speaker 4: three point eight expected goes from three games. Now, if

1030
00:52:25,880 --> 00:52:29,239
Speaker 4: you look going backwards the other way, both conceding and

1031
00:52:29,560 --> 00:52:33,720
Speaker 4: well we both conceding a fair bit. I think Turkey

1032
00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:38,600
Speaker 4: rank in the top four tournament Austria with five point

1033
00:52:38,640 --> 00:52:43,560
Speaker 4: five to five expected goes against and Turkey with four

1034
00:52:43,560 --> 00:52:45,719
Speaker 4: point seventy four expected goes against. So there's a lot

1035
00:52:45,719 --> 00:52:48,600
Speaker 4: of stats there, but basically both teams concede and create

1036
00:52:48,640 --> 00:52:51,120
Speaker 4: a lot of chances, and this has all the ingredients

1037
00:52:51,120 --> 00:52:54,319
Speaker 4: for a high scoring, high octane matchup. And I don't

1038
00:52:54,360 --> 00:52:57,320
Speaker 4: want to disrespect that Georgia v. Czech Republic group stage

1039
00:52:57,400 --> 00:53:01,280
Speaker 4: game because that was brilliant, but I think this has

1040
00:53:01,840 --> 00:53:04,560
Speaker 4: the potential to be the best game of the tournament. Yeah,

1041
00:53:04,560 --> 00:53:07,279
Speaker 4: I've got Hoy hopes for this. I'm expecting goes, I'm

1042
00:53:07,320 --> 00:53:11,440
Speaker 4: expecting cards, I'm expecting files, free kicks, all the props

1043
00:53:11,440 --> 00:53:14,759
Speaker 4: you can think of. That kind of a quite a

1044
00:53:14,880 --> 00:53:17,759
Speaker 4: full blooded Hoy octane affairs. So in the end of

1045
00:53:17,840 --> 00:53:19,680
Speaker 4: I've sett it on over two point five goes at

1046
00:53:19,960 --> 00:53:22,399
Speaker 4: minus one ten that that has to be the play

1047
00:53:22,480 --> 00:53:24,720
Speaker 4: for me. But I think this game will have everything.

1048
00:53:25,440 --> 00:53:28,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I totally agree Sam at the dail on the

1049
00:53:28,040 --> 00:53:31,160
Speaker 2: head that you know with Turkey wanting to build out

1050
00:53:31,200 --> 00:53:34,120
Speaker 2: of the back. That just creates one of two things, right,

1051
00:53:34,200 --> 00:53:37,000
Speaker 2: like it creates the six to one defeat and the

1052
00:53:37,040 --> 00:53:39,080
Speaker 2: friendly where they turn over and they can see three

1053
00:53:39,120 --> 00:53:42,239
Speaker 2: goals off of high turnovers. Or as you've been seeing

1054
00:53:42,280 --> 00:53:45,080
Speaker 2: throughout this tournament is that they like to play a

1055
00:53:45,080 --> 00:53:47,279
Speaker 2: lot of balls in over the top, which is how

1056
00:53:47,320 --> 00:53:49,480
Speaker 2: you beat ragn Express, right, you beat it over the

1057
00:53:49,480 --> 00:53:52,480
Speaker 2: top and you have you got to have good technicians

1058
00:53:52,520 --> 00:53:54,960
Speaker 2: in the back. Kahongoloo is going to be suspended for

1059
00:53:55,000 --> 00:53:57,560
Speaker 2: this match, I believe, unless they were scinded it, which

1060
00:53:57,560 --> 00:53:59,440
Speaker 2: is a big loss for Turkey in terms of their

1061
00:53:59,440 --> 00:54:01,720
Speaker 2: actual build up out of the back. So that creates

1062
00:54:01,719 --> 00:54:05,560
Speaker 2: another issue for them against Austria. But in that same aspect,

1063
00:54:05,719 --> 00:54:07,799
Speaker 2: you also lose ball stopping in the middle of the pitch,

1064
00:54:07,840 --> 00:54:11,520
Speaker 2: which Austria can really hurt you in the wide areas

1065
00:54:11,719 --> 00:54:14,160
Speaker 2: they did that against the Netherlands. There's not much you

1066
00:54:14,200 --> 00:54:17,080
Speaker 2: can learn from you know, I hate red cards because

1067
00:54:17,080 --> 00:54:18,759
Speaker 2: there's like it just takes away a lot from the

1068
00:54:18,760 --> 00:54:20,640
Speaker 2: match and there's really not much you can actually learn

1069
00:54:21,320 --> 00:54:24,200
Speaker 2: from a team of how they play. But in the end,

1070
00:54:24,239 --> 00:54:26,919
Speaker 2: Turkey conceded almost two expected goals to a ten man

1071
00:54:27,040 --> 00:54:29,640
Speaker 2: Checkia team that was, you know, without down to ten

1072
00:54:29,680 --> 00:54:32,680
Speaker 2: men for about sixty minutes of that match. And like

1073
00:54:32,719 --> 00:54:34,919
Speaker 2: Sam said, these two teams are in the bottom five

1074
00:54:34,960 --> 00:54:36,960
Speaker 2: in terms of non penalty expect to goals allowed. So

1075
00:54:36,960 --> 00:54:39,520
Speaker 2: this is going to be like Sam said, this is

1076
00:54:39,560 --> 00:54:41,200
Speaker 2: going to be very fun. This is gonna be the

1077
00:54:41,239 --> 00:54:45,200
Speaker 2: most fun match of this round of games. So I'm

1078
00:54:45,200 --> 00:54:45,720
Speaker 2: with Sam.

1079
00:54:45,840 --> 00:54:47,680
Speaker 5: I like over two and f goals minus one all five.

1080
00:54:48,120 --> 00:54:52,480
Speaker 1: Okay, so that's all eight matches done and dusted. We'll

1081
00:54:52,520 --> 00:54:55,400
Speaker 1: go into an underdog parlay. Now. The only rules that

1082
00:54:55,480 --> 00:54:59,520
Speaker 1: has to be plus two hundred or longer to qualify BJ.

1083
00:55:00,160 --> 00:55:01,000
Speaker 1: What do you got?

1084
00:55:01,160 --> 00:55:04,160
Speaker 2: Spain team total over three and a half at plus

1085
00:55:04,400 --> 00:55:10,840
Speaker 2: two seventy five. Spain has beaten Georgia twice and qualifying

1086
00:55:10,880 --> 00:55:14,760
Speaker 2: by a combined score of ten to two. What happened

1087
00:55:14,800 --> 00:55:17,480
Speaker 2: in both of those matches was Spain was able to

1088
00:55:17,520 --> 00:55:19,040
Speaker 2: dominate the middle of the pitch. They were able to

1089
00:55:19,040 --> 00:55:21,640
Speaker 2: ping passes through and get the opening goal. And once

1090
00:55:21,680 --> 00:55:25,319
Speaker 2: the opening goal happened, the dam broke for Georgia. The

1091
00:55:25,360 --> 00:55:27,440
Speaker 2: goals kept coming. They kept trying to buildut of the back,

1092
00:55:27,440 --> 00:55:30,840
Speaker 2: they kept turning it over because Spain is an elite

1093
00:55:30,840 --> 00:55:34,239
Speaker 2: counterpressing side, so I think once the first goal goes

1094
00:55:34,280 --> 00:55:36,680
Speaker 2: in for Spain, this thing is going to snowball. Hopefully

1095
00:55:36,719 --> 00:55:38,919
Speaker 2: I got Alva Muratzo scores multiple goals here and gets

1096
00:55:38,920 --> 00:55:41,400
Speaker 2: back in the Golden boot race. But for me, I

1097
00:55:41,400 --> 00:55:43,399
Speaker 2: think Spain a potential to score five or six here,

1098
00:55:43,440 --> 00:55:45,440
Speaker 2: So like over three.

1099
00:55:45,320 --> 00:55:47,080
Speaker 5: And a half goals at plus two seventy five.

1100
00:55:47,200 --> 00:55:49,440
Speaker 1: Okay, I'll ruin this one. With Belgium plus three fifty

1101
00:55:49,440 --> 00:55:51,840
Speaker 1: on the ninety minute line, I think that this is

1102
00:55:51,880 --> 00:55:53,799
Speaker 1: a great spot to buy low. I actually think this

1103
00:55:53,800 --> 00:55:56,319
Speaker 1: Belgium team has some legs in it. We've seen the

1104
00:55:56,320 --> 00:55:58,759
Speaker 1: bottom for them. I think there's only one way to go.

1105
00:55:58,800 --> 00:56:00,520
Speaker 1: And I know France is going to be a really,

1106
00:56:00,560 --> 00:56:03,239
Speaker 1: really tough opponent for them, but I do feel they

1107
00:56:03,320 --> 00:56:05,480
Speaker 1: might be a little more comfortable against a team that's

1108
00:56:05,520 --> 00:56:09,000
Speaker 1: going to try to play into play into the game,

1109
00:56:09,080 --> 00:56:11,759
Speaker 1: rather than the ones that they signed the group stage,

1110
00:56:11,800 --> 00:56:13,480
Speaker 1: which we're happy to sit back and let Belgium just

1111
00:56:13,480 --> 00:56:16,040
Speaker 1: miss chances after chance after chance. Maybe one or two

1112
00:56:16,040 --> 00:56:18,280
Speaker 1: of these chances go in for a change in Belgium wins.

1113
00:56:18,480 --> 00:56:20,399
Speaker 1: So plus three fifty on Belgium to pull the upset

1114
00:56:20,400 --> 00:56:20,960
Speaker 1: against France.

1115
00:56:20,960 --> 00:56:24,400
Speaker 4: For me, Sam cheers, Michael lost us our parlay before.

1116
00:56:25,480 --> 00:56:30,120
Speaker 4: So I'm going for I'm going for Austria win and

1117
00:56:30,200 --> 00:56:33,160
Speaker 4: over three point five goals at plus four fifty. Like

1118
00:56:33,160 --> 00:56:36,680
Speaker 4: I said, both nations are conceding and creating goal scoring

1119
00:56:36,680 --> 00:56:39,879
Speaker 4: opportunities at will stylistically with the work both will want

1120
00:56:39,920 --> 00:56:42,400
Speaker 4: to do in transitions, high up the pitch, high turnovers,

1121
00:56:42,440 --> 00:56:45,799
Speaker 4: aggressive pressing and the bravery both will show and enter

1122
00:56:46,080 --> 00:56:48,399
Speaker 4: in the attacking third. I think this has got all

1123
00:56:48,400 --> 00:56:52,960
Speaker 4: the ingredients for a high scoring, high octane matchup. Big

1124
00:56:53,040 --> 00:56:56,560
Speaker 4: chances will be plentiful in this game. This might just

1125
00:56:56,680 --> 00:56:58,360
Speaker 4: be the best game of the tournament. Yeah, I've got

1126
00:56:58,480 --> 00:57:00,759
Speaker 4: high hopes for it, in a game which Austria shit

1127
00:57:00,880 --> 00:57:03,600
Speaker 4: edge in terms of quality both in playing staff and

1128
00:57:03,719 --> 00:57:06,839
Speaker 4: also tactically under Ragnik. So Austria winner were three point

1129
00:57:06,840 --> 00:57:08,040
Speaker 4: five goals at plus four.

1130
00:57:07,920 --> 00:57:11,200
Speaker 1: Fifty, okay? And if you play our three of those

1131
00:57:11,280 --> 00:57:15,240
Speaker 1: legs and they all hit ninety two to one odds

1132
00:57:15,280 --> 00:57:17,560
Speaker 1: on that one. Okay. If you had to pick out

1133
00:57:17,560 --> 00:57:20,480
Speaker 1: a best bet for the round of sixteen matches, Sam,

1134
00:57:20,800 --> 00:57:21,320
Speaker 1: what would it be?

1135
00:57:23,720 --> 00:57:26,840
Speaker 4: England qualify and under two point five goals at plus

1136
00:57:26,880 --> 00:57:31,080
Speaker 4: one ten. This is one that I don't think we

1137
00:57:31,120 --> 00:57:35,040
Speaker 4: need to overcomplicate in terms of a betting approach. England

1138
00:57:35,080 --> 00:57:38,480
Speaker 4: haven't wild going forward. They aren't blowing teams away. They

1139
00:57:38,520 --> 00:57:40,760
Speaker 4: have the attacking components to do so, but we haven't

1140
00:57:40,800 --> 00:57:43,800
Speaker 4: seen that yet and we might not. England wears Slovenias

1141
00:57:43,880 --> 00:57:47,080
Speaker 4: or less XG created than any Premier League game last

1142
00:57:47,080 --> 00:57:49,880
Speaker 4: season with zero point eighty XG on match Day one,

1143
00:57:50,040 --> 00:57:53,360
Speaker 4: exactly same against Serbia, less XG created than any Premier

1144
00:57:53,440 --> 00:57:55,880
Speaker 4: League game last season with zero point six nine XG.

1145
00:57:56,200 --> 00:57:58,800
Speaker 4: So England to go through with Ghos being scarce gets

1146
00:57:58,880 --> 00:58:00,680
Speaker 4: us to plus one ten much I don't think is

1147
00:58:00,680 --> 00:58:01,280
Speaker 4: of pop proists.

1148
00:58:01,480 --> 00:58:02,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna stay in that match. I like to

1149
00:58:02,880 --> 00:58:05,040
Speaker 1: draw the ninety minute draw there plus three thirty three,

1150
00:58:05,080 --> 00:58:07,280
Speaker 1: and you can basically apply all that logic that Sam

1151
00:58:07,320 --> 00:58:09,880
Speaker 1: just mentioned and put it to the draw. I don't

1152
00:58:09,920 --> 00:58:12,400
Speaker 1: really think England will be too much of a threat

1153
00:58:12,400 --> 00:58:14,880
Speaker 1: to run away and hide from this match. Obviously Slovakia

1154
00:58:15,160 --> 00:58:17,280
Speaker 1: won't be either, so I think the draw will be

1155
00:58:17,560 --> 00:58:20,760
Speaker 1: in reach for all ninety minutes here for England and

1156
00:58:20,800 --> 00:58:23,920
Speaker 1: Slovakia plus three thirty three BJ you can take us

1157
00:58:23,920 --> 00:58:24,320
Speaker 1: home here.

1158
00:58:25,040 --> 00:58:27,200
Speaker 2: Austria Turkey over two and a half goals and minus

1159
00:58:27,240 --> 00:58:30,760
Speaker 2: one oh five. This should be the most fun match

1160
00:58:30,840 --> 00:58:33,919
Speaker 2: of the Round of sixteen. These two teams are creating

1161
00:58:33,960 --> 00:58:36,360
Speaker 2: a lot of chances, they're conceding a ton, they are

1162
00:58:36,400 --> 00:58:38,600
Speaker 2: both Turkey is at least in the top five in

1163
00:58:38,640 --> 00:58:40,960
Speaker 2: terms of expecta goles created both Austria and Turkier and

1164
00:58:41,000 --> 00:58:44,360
Speaker 2: the bottom five in terms of expected goals allowed. Ralph

1165
00:58:44,400 --> 00:58:48,320
Speaker 2: Ragnick's press always creates chaos and Turkey is actually very

1166
00:58:48,320 --> 00:58:51,680
Speaker 2: well set up to either beat that or make a

1167
00:58:51,720 --> 00:58:54,200
Speaker 2: lot of mistakes. They played Austria in a friendly and

1168
00:58:54,240 --> 00:58:56,320
Speaker 2: lost six to one, mainly because they tried to build

1169
00:58:56,360 --> 00:58:58,120
Speaker 2: out of the back and they kept turning it over

1170
00:58:58,240 --> 00:59:00,960
Speaker 2: and they allowed Austria to get three goals high turnovers.

1171
00:59:01,120 --> 00:59:02,600
Speaker 2: So if they try to build out of the back here,

1172
00:59:02,800 --> 00:59:04,160
Speaker 2: either one of the two things are gonna happen. They're

1173
00:59:04,200 --> 00:59:05,560
Speaker 2: going to turn it over again, it's going to create

1174
00:59:05,560 --> 00:59:07,760
Speaker 2: a lot of easy opportunities for Austria, or are they

1175
00:59:07,800 --> 00:59:09,840
Speaker 2: going to do what they've done during this tournament and

1176
00:59:09,880 --> 00:59:11,720
Speaker 2: play a lot of long balls over the top, which

1177
00:59:11,760 --> 00:59:15,280
Speaker 2: is what both Netherlands and France had success with against Austria,

1178
00:59:15,360 --> 00:59:17,680
Speaker 2: so either way it creates a very up and down

1179
00:59:18,000 --> 00:59:20,439
Speaker 2: basketball type match, like over two and a half goals

1180
00:59:20,440 --> 00:59:21,280
Speaker 2: in minest one five.

1181
00:59:21,600 --> 00:59:23,880
Speaker 1: All right, that's the around of sixteen done and dusted

1182
00:59:23,920 --> 00:59:26,760
Speaker 1: for us. We got to get Sam off to Glastonbury,

1183
00:59:26,840 --> 00:59:30,840
Speaker 1: which is not in Scotland, and BJ and I will

1184
00:59:30,840 --> 00:59:32,160
Speaker 1: be back in a couple of days to do some

1185
00:59:32,200 --> 00:59:34,640
Speaker 1: more Copa America stuff, But until then, best of luck

1186
00:59:34,640 --> 00:59:36,160
Speaker 1: with all your bets. Thank you to our sponsors Bet

1187
00:59:36,200 --> 00:59:38,840
Speaker 1: three six five. Thank you to our producing Noah, Good

1188
00:59:38,880 --> 00:59:43,480
Speaker 1: luck everybody.

1189
00:59:45,400 --> 00:59:49,920
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1190
00:59:49,960 --> 00:59:52,720
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1191
00:59:52,760 --> 00:59:55,920
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