1 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:15,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:17,560 --> 00:00:21,159 Speaker 2: Hello Votonomics listeners. It's Alegristratton and it is time for 3 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:26,040 Speaker 2: another edition of our Summer Reading special. While Adrian, Stephanie 4 00:00:26,079 --> 00:00:28,920 Speaker 2: and I are off for a portion of the next month, 5 00:00:29,240 --> 00:00:31,640 Speaker 2: we thought it'd be good to offer up a useful 6 00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 2: summer reading list. We each selected an author whose nonfiction 7 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:38,600 Speaker 2: work we felt was relevant and informative on the state 8 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:42,520 Speaker 2: of politics and economics right now. Last week Adrian spoke 9 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:47,239 Speaker 2: with Varied Zakaria about his latest release, The Age of Revolutions. 10 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:49,720 Speaker 2: It is a great listen, of course, so please check 11 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:52,479 Speaker 2: it out if you haven't already. But this week I'm 12 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 2: bringing you a conversation with Tim Marshall. He is the 13 00:00:55,960 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 2: author of Prisoners of Geography The Power of Geography. You've 14 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 2: probably read those on previous summer holidays, but now more 15 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 2: recently The Future of Geography. Now this is the addition 16 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:11,480 Speaker 2: where Votonomics goes astronomic. When I'm not at Bloomberg, I 17 00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:15,200 Speaker 2: helped run the UK's first spaceport, sax of Ord, which 18 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:18,360 Speaker 2: is based in the Shetland Islands. What has been striking 19 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:21,240 Speaker 2: to me week after week of recording Voteronomics with Stephanie 20 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:24,560 Speaker 2: and Adrian is that all the dynamics of diplomacy that 21 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:27,440 Speaker 2: we discuss can also be seen in the space domain. 22 00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:31,760 Speaker 2: Space has the capacity to impact voters' lives and boardrooms too, 23 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:34,920 Speaker 2: but despite the best efforts of Elon Musk etal, it 24 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 2: still remains a weirdly liminal area, very far away from 25 00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:45,399 Speaker 2: mainstream discourse. So to help bring space into votonomics, I 26 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 2: wanted to bring in author and geographer broadcaster Tim Marshall, 27 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 2: who wrote the best selling Prisoners of Geography and a 28 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:55,080 Speaker 2: number of other best sellers, and has now applied or 29 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:58,320 Speaker 2: rather published a book last year applying his signature erudition 30 00:01:58,960 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 2: and wit to space. Welcome Tim, very kind of you. 31 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 3: Thank you. 32 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:05,800 Speaker 2: I'm a big fan, always have been when you were 33 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:08,200 Speaker 2: Sky News diplomatic editor. 34 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 3: When I was at Newsnight that sort of thing. Yes, 35 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:14,600 Speaker 3: it does feel because you did the big brain stuff 36 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:15,080 Speaker 3: they did. 37 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:17,040 Speaker 2: They did cross though I was trying to remember there 38 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:19,040 Speaker 2: was a summit, wasn't there where I think we both 39 00:02:19,440 --> 00:02:21,639 Speaker 2: almos raised eyebrows and had our head in our hands 40 00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:25,000 Speaker 2: at some point. Look, Tim, in your book, you are 41 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 2: clear that we are now to quote you we're now 42 00:02:28,200 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 2: in the era of astropolitics. Tell us what that means. 43 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:36,880 Speaker 3: Astropolitics is when geopolitics moves out into space. Geopolitics is 44 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 3: where you look at resources, populations, people, well everything really 45 00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:48,239 Speaker 3: and there is a geography to space which is not 46 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:53,000 Speaker 3: properly explained usually, and that geography does inform part of 47 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:57,320 Speaker 3: the decision making that the big countries and indeed companies make. 48 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:00,520 Speaker 3: And so we're now deep, I would say, into the 49 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 3: era of astropolitics and also what I would call space 50 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:08,120 Speaker 3: race two point zero, because there are many similarities with 51 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:11,160 Speaker 3: the sixties and seventies, but there are also major differences. 52 00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:14,760 Speaker 3: They are well, in those days, there were no such 53 00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:18,600 Speaker 3: things as lasers. There were no commercial companies in space. 54 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 3: We weren't shooting basically things of the size of fridge 55 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:26,639 Speaker 3: freezers asteroids to see if we can deflect them. We 56 00:03:26,760 --> 00:03:30,960 Speaker 3: never dreamt of mining the Moon, and the commercial aspects 57 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 3: of it were I wouldn't say peripheral. I mean, you 58 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 3: know Boeing and Lockheed Martin. Of course they always had 59 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 3: a relationship with NASA. But one of the biggest differences 60 00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 3: in space race two point now is just how front 61 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 3: and center commercial companies are and I don't just mean 62 00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:51,760 Speaker 3: elon musk. You know, there's a raft of companies who 63 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 3: are pumping billions of you know, it's a billion more 64 00:03:55,240 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 3: than billions of dollars industry, and it's growing rapidly, very 65 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:03,400 Speaker 3: high risk industry in many ways. So you know, it 66 00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:06,080 Speaker 3: is different to the first iteration. 67 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 2: So, Tim, let's talk about low Earth orbit, which people 68 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:13,640 Speaker 2: call LEO for short. There's lots of definitions for it, 69 00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:17,880 Speaker 2: aren't there, But essentially it's anything under one thousand kilometers up. 70 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 3: This is another problem. You know I mentioned earlier about 71 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:24,240 Speaker 3: the differences between space race and space rates two point oh. 72 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:27,599 Speaker 3: Another problem is we don't have the legislation or even 73 00:04:27,600 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 3: the guidelines for space rates two point oh because the 74 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:33,720 Speaker 3: space regulations and guidelines are written in the nineteen sixties. 75 00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:36,039 Speaker 3: Out of Space Treaty is nineteen sixty seven, and we 76 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 3: can't even agree exactly where space starts. But you asked 77 00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:42,680 Speaker 3: me about LEO. It's very worrying talking to someone who 78 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:45,240 Speaker 3: really knows more than you do about this. I had 79 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:45,679 Speaker 3: no idea. 80 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 2: The Scottish the same, Tim. 81 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 3: The Scottish version of Cape Canaveral low Earth orbit is 82 00:04:52,839 --> 00:04:55,600 Speaker 3: where a vast majority of the satellites are. There are 83 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 3: about eight and a half thousand working satellites, about three 84 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:02,279 Speaker 3: thousand defunct satellites, which is a lot. And you know, 85 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:04,560 Speaker 3: my generation grown up in the sixties and seventies, there 86 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:07,200 Speaker 3: were only really two space powers at two people who 87 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:10,039 Speaker 3: really had a presence in space that we were all 88 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:14,159 Speaker 3: aware of. There's eighty countries in space now, and I 89 00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 3: know there's a lot of space up there, but it 90 00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:21,800 Speaker 3: is getting crowded. And the conservative estimates are that there 91 00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 3: will be at least thirty thousand satellites by the end 92 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 3: of this decade. That's a conservative estimate. The Chinese will 93 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:33,160 Speaker 3: probably put up twenty thousand, musc will put up ten thousand, 94 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:37,240 Speaker 3: and that's just two examples. And although the satellites are 95 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 3: getting smaller and smaller, some of them the size of 96 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:43,240 Speaker 3: a Rubik's cube CubeSats as they're known, it's getting crowded, 97 00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:46,599 Speaker 3: it's getting competitive. He said in the introduction about how 98 00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:49,159 Speaker 3: you know it's pretty sort of out there and not 99 00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:51,680 Speaker 3: part of our lives. And it's true we don't think 100 00:05:51,720 --> 00:05:56,280 Speaker 3: about them, but it's absolutely integral to all of our lives. 101 00:05:56,360 --> 00:05:59,760 Speaker 3: Every time you put petrol in a car, every time 102 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:02,120 Speaker 3: you get on a plane, every time you do a 103 00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:06,920 Speaker 3: bank transaction, and thousands of other examples. They are connected 104 00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 3: to space, and it's a growing industry. 105 00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:12,599 Speaker 2: You've summarized the companies and the money to be made, 106 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:14,960 Speaker 2: the big business that is being made out of satellites 107 00:06:15,080 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 2: up up in space right now. But you also alluded 108 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:21,240 Speaker 2: to if we've got thirty thousand satellites going up in 109 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 2: the near future, twenty thousand of those will be Chinese, 110 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:26,640 Speaker 2: and then some of those will be Musk and American. 111 00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:29,840 Speaker 2: Right there in that sentence, you've given us the kind 112 00:06:29,880 --> 00:06:36,200 Speaker 2: of great Game of Earth transposed to space. Just talk 113 00:06:36,279 --> 00:06:37,920 Speaker 2: us through and this is I think probably what your 114 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:41,960 Speaker 2: astropolitics is all about. Us talk us through how geopolitics 115 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:43,320 Speaker 2: is playing out right now. 116 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:47,719 Speaker 3: Go back to the beginning of the last century when 117 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:51,120 Speaker 3: everyone realized that oil was going to replace coal in 118 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:54,919 Speaker 3: the military terms, economic terms. You would not find a 119 00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:58,880 Speaker 3: major company or country that, when a massive oil discovery 120 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:01,560 Speaker 3: was made, said you know what, we won't bother. We're 121 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:04,000 Speaker 3: not sure about this one. They had to go, They 122 00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:06,919 Speaker 3: had to compete, and it's the same and so you 123 00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:13,120 Speaker 3: cannot leave this newish domain to your rivals, whether it's 124 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 3: the satellite industry, whether it's experiments scientific experiments in space 125 00:07:19,160 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 3: or the big one and the most difficult at the moment, 126 00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 3: mining space for the very minerals that we need for 127 00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 3: renewable energy here on Earth, which of course is a 128 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 3: very finite resource. And so the great powers and the 129 00:07:33,880 --> 00:07:37,280 Speaker 3: big companies are competing against each other. Now, obviously the 130 00:07:37,360 --> 00:07:40,960 Speaker 3: American companies are in bed with the American space companies, 131 00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:44,960 Speaker 3: and ditto the other side of the Chinese and the Russians. 132 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:48,680 Speaker 3: But if you look in broadbrush terms, there is a 133 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:52,280 Speaker 3: block going up led by the Americans via the Artemisa courts. 134 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:55,280 Speaker 3: Forty two countries have signed on. And then there is 135 00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:58,000 Speaker 3: a block going up led by China, which is the 136 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 3: senior partner, with Russia as its dune a partner played 137 00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:06,240 Speaker 3: Iran and North Korea clutching onto their coattails. And that 138 00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 3: is exactly the two blocks that we see dominating the 139 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 3: global picture on Earth. It is absolutely mirrored with what's 140 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:16,600 Speaker 3: going on in space. 141 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 2: And then there was great excitement because the Europeans put 142 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:25,920 Speaker 2: up Arian six listeners can't see, but has just smiled 143 00:08:26,080 --> 00:08:29,040 Speaker 2: on the camera that I'm talking to him on. So 144 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:32,320 Speaker 2: what's the impact going to be of for the first 145 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 2: time in a wild Europeans returning to be able to launch. 146 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 3: It's positive if you believe that this a is our 147 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:44,880 Speaker 3: future and B on balance or adventures in space are 148 00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 3: a good thing, and I do fall down on that 149 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:50,680 Speaker 3: side of the argument. The Europeans in the shape of 150 00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:55,200 Speaker 3: the ESA European Space Agency, but also in the individual countries. 151 00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:58,880 Speaker 3: The UK is a major space player in the second tier, 152 00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:02,200 Speaker 3: the EU in the second tier, which is folded into 153 00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:06,080 Speaker 3: the ESA. Germany I think you could argue was the 154 00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:10,280 Speaker 3: second tier of space power of France, definitely, Italy definitely, 155 00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:14,200 Speaker 3: along with people like the UAE, Japan and Israel. So 156 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:18,200 Speaker 3: these second tier companies they can't do what the Americans 157 00:09:18,200 --> 00:09:22,640 Speaker 3: and the Chinese do, mostly because of budget constraints. But 158 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 3: the French, by by launching out of French Guiana that rocket, 159 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:30,880 Speaker 3: have sort of nailed their colors to the mass that 160 00:09:30,960 --> 00:09:33,680 Speaker 3: you know, we're not going to get left behind. I mean, 161 00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:37,199 Speaker 3: the Europeans accept they can't match the Big two or 162 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:39,640 Speaker 3: the Big three actually because Russia's in the top tier 163 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:42,560 Speaker 3: as well. But it is a statement of intent and 164 00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:44,200 Speaker 3: the Europeans really are a player. 165 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 2: But this matters, doesn't it. It's not just sort of 166 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:49,880 Speaker 2: the Europeans showing that they have the toys too, it 167 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:52,960 Speaker 2: is the Europeans showing that they have the access the 168 00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:55,199 Speaker 2: ability to get to space. So that means that they 169 00:09:55,200 --> 00:10:01,640 Speaker 2: can access their lucrative, important, vital infrastructure relying on satellite systems. 170 00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:05,480 Speaker 2: So in the event that they cannot at some point 171 00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:06,960 Speaker 2: ask the Americans. 172 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:11,520 Speaker 3: To do it. Yeah, I mean, there's many historical echoes 173 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:15,800 Speaker 3: there because one of the reasons the French really ventured 174 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:17,960 Speaker 3: out on their own, I mean, there's a whole bunch, 175 00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:23,839 Speaker 3: including the Forster Frapp. Then their independent nuclear capabilities is that. 176 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:26,480 Speaker 3: And this goes all the way back to the seventies 177 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:28,280 Speaker 3: when there was a coup in one of the North 178 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:31,560 Speaker 3: African countries that France takes a great interest in still 179 00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 3: and they were invited to intervene on the basis of 180 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:39,640 Speaker 3: some American satellite information and they just didn't trust it. 181 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:43,120 Speaker 3: And it is murky whether the Americans sort of fed 182 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:46,839 Speaker 3: them the best bits of the satellite information to try 183 00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:49,760 Speaker 3: to drag them into taking some action in the African country. 184 00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:52,480 Speaker 3: And this was one of the triggers France thought we 185 00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:56,240 Speaker 3: need our own independent eyes on via the satellite. I mean, 186 00:10:56,280 --> 00:10:59,160 Speaker 3: this is the military aspect of it, and off they 187 00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:01,960 Speaker 3: went with you know, as well as their independent nuclear force. 188 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:05,920 Speaker 3: They needed their independent satellites because they do not wish 189 00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:09,520 Speaker 3: to be reliant upon the United States, as so many 190 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:12,439 Speaker 3: Western countries are. So that's the sort of genesis of that, 191 00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:16,280 Speaker 3: and it continues to this day. And of course there's 192 00:11:16,320 --> 00:11:20,000 Speaker 3: the commercial aspects to that. You don't want to be 193 00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:28,040 Speaker 3: reliant upon American technology when your own industry you will 194 00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:30,400 Speaker 3: be harmed by that. I mean we're seeing a little 195 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:33,120 Speaker 3: bit of this at the moment in the defense industry. 196 00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:38,120 Speaker 3: The new Labor government is very keen to forge links 197 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:40,560 Speaker 3: back with the EU countries and actually get a place 198 00:11:40,640 --> 00:11:43,960 Speaker 3: around the table and talking about the European defense industry. 199 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:45,559 Speaker 3: I'm not talking about you know, how many soldiers you 200 00:11:45,640 --> 00:11:49,520 Speaker 3: have armaments. And it's the French that is leading the 201 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:52,600 Speaker 3: fight back within the EU saying hang on a minute, 202 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:55,040 Speaker 3: do we want to let Britain into the decision making 203 00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 3: process when it's not in the EU of the European 204 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:01,080 Speaker 3: defense arms industry. Sorry, I've gone off at a bit 205 00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:03,240 Speaker 3: of a tangent, but it is related back to why 206 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 3: the French insist. 207 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:07,880 Speaker 2: On that but it's central to what we're looking at 208 00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:12,080 Speaker 2: right here, which is that these are terrestrial geopolitical tussles 209 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:15,360 Speaker 2: and relationships that are sort of having an amplified or 210 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:17,960 Speaker 2: expression in the space domain. 211 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:20,599 Speaker 3: Of your sovereignty in a way. And that will go 212 00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:23,480 Speaker 3: even further on the moon. About sovereignty on the moon, 213 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:25,600 Speaker 3: I mean, nobody's going to use that word and say 214 00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:30,960 Speaker 3: we have sovereign rights, but they will certainly stake their claims, 215 00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:33,160 Speaker 3: they just won't use the word sovereignty. 216 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 2: Let's come on to the moon in a second, which 217 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:36,960 Speaker 2: is a sentence you don't often. 218 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:41,319 Speaker 3: Utter, well, not for about about fifty years in fact. 219 00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:45,760 Speaker 2: A the suggestion we could saunter onto the moon, but 220 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:48,160 Speaker 2: b just the sentence let's move on to the subject 221 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:50,600 Speaker 2: that is the moon. That's not something I have said 222 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 2: often in my journalistic career. But before we do, just 223 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:56,840 Speaker 2: switching focus slightly, which is Elon Musk Starlink was critical 224 00:12:57,040 --> 00:13:00,880 Speaker 2: in supporting Ukraine and giving it access to the Internet 225 00:13:01,040 --> 00:13:05,199 Speaker 2: and the rest during the Russia's invasion. Clearly that was 226 00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:09,720 Speaker 2: benign and something to be celebrated. But is there any 227 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:12,840 Speaker 2: queasiness around the idea that it is a private company 228 00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:17,720 Speaker 2: that has that kind of power, and you know, at 229 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:20,040 Speaker 2: some point which is not yet on the horizon, but 230 00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:21,719 Speaker 2: at some point is they can turn it on and 231 00:13:21,760 --> 00:13:22,520 Speaker 2: they can turn it off. 232 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:26,439 Speaker 3: I'll accept your use of the word benign. In the 233 00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:31,679 Speaker 3: original effort by Musk he sent the Starlink terminals into 234 00:13:31,920 --> 00:13:35,640 Speaker 3: the urban region, thousands of thousands of them to link 235 00:13:35,679 --> 00:13:39,000 Speaker 3: to his Starlight satellite system to deliver the Internet to them, 236 00:13:39,040 --> 00:13:41,439 Speaker 3: and that was benign. Then it was good. But of 237 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:44,640 Speaker 3: course the Ukrainian military jumped on it and used it 238 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:47,599 Speaker 3: to target Russian soldiers and kill them. It was inevitable. 239 00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:50,720 Speaker 3: So I put it to you, members of the jury, 240 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:55,000 Speaker 3: does that make Starlink a legitimate military target for Russians 241 00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:59,760 Speaker 3: to fire upon? Discuss because I referred earlier to the 242 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:03,040 Speaker 3: the treaties of the sixties. Are they out of space 243 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:06,560 Speaker 3: treat in nineteen sixty seven? It doesn't cover this because 244 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:09,079 Speaker 3: you couldn't do anything in those days, whereas now you 245 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:11,319 Speaker 3: can fire a ballistic missile from the surface of the 246 00:14:11,360 --> 00:14:13,199 Speaker 3: Earth and you can hit a satellite and knock it out. 247 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:17,600 Speaker 3: That has been done to test by four countries Russia, USA, India, China. 248 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:21,840 Speaker 3: They haven't done that this time. You can spoof the satellites. 249 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:25,200 Speaker 3: You send up packets of information which can fuse the chipboard, 250 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:28,080 Speaker 3: put them out of action perhaps, and you can dazzle them. 251 00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:31,280 Speaker 3: You send up direct energy beam so much light floods 252 00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:34,440 Speaker 3: into it it blinds the camera. And those last two 253 00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:36,960 Speaker 3: the Russians have been doing. They have been taking military 254 00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:40,520 Speaker 3: action against an American company in space because it has 255 00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:43,320 Speaker 3: been used by their Ukrainian foes on the ground. This 256 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:46,480 Speaker 3: is new territory and we don't have the rules and 257 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:52,240 Speaker 3: regulations required because it's hardly going to stop there. We 258 00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:55,320 Speaker 3: now have weapon direct energy weapons that cannot drones out 259 00:14:55,360 --> 00:14:58,200 Speaker 3: at a range of about seven kilometers. The Americans have 260 00:14:58,240 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 3: perfected them, the Brits have got them, so you can 261 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:03,760 Speaker 3: find it fired a laser beam at a drone several 262 00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:06,920 Speaker 3: kilometers away, knocking out the sky. What happens if somebody 263 00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:09,240 Speaker 3: sticks one of those on a satellite in order to 264 00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:13,560 Speaker 3: target other satellites. The moment one country does, every country 265 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:19,680 Speaker 3: will have them. So we urgently need I hesitate to 266 00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:24,160 Speaker 3: say laws because international law is an oxymoron sometimes, but 267 00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:25,680 Speaker 3: we definitely need guidelines. 268 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:29,640 Speaker 2: Any prospects of those coming no, everyone. 269 00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:33,120 Speaker 3: Knows we need them. Everyone suspects they will eventually come. 270 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:37,440 Speaker 3: Go back to the early days of the nuclear race, 271 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:40,520 Speaker 3: when the Americans had the bomb, the Russians got the bomb, 272 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 3: and the immediate response was both sides built more and 273 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:44,320 Speaker 3: more and more of them until they had tens of 274 00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:46,520 Speaker 3: thousands of warheads. And then at that point they thought, 275 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:48,840 Speaker 3: we really need to talk to each other about this. 276 00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:51,000 Speaker 3: And I think that will be the case in space. 277 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:54,760 Speaker 3: There is an arms race going on in space. Many 278 00:15:54,840 --> 00:15:57,960 Speaker 3: countries now have space commands. China got the first, Trump 279 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:02,720 Speaker 3: introduced the second. UK has won, France, Germany, India, et cetera. 280 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:06,720 Speaker 3: These space forces, and so it is inevitable. But I 281 00:16:06,720 --> 00:16:10,280 Speaker 3: think we're going to go through this period of x 282 00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:13,680 Speaker 3: years before we realize how dangerous it's got because and 283 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:16,400 Speaker 3: then we realize, hang on minute, all these satellites are 284 00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 3: integral to the world economy. 285 00:16:19,320 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 1: You know. 286 00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:22,200 Speaker 3: The last thing we need is people knocking into them 287 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 3: or firing at them. And then we will have treaties. 288 00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:28,520 Speaker 3: And the people are working on the texts already, but 289 00:16:29,280 --> 00:16:33,600 Speaker 3: hasn't percolated to the senior levels of industry and politics. 290 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:34,840 Speaker 3: The urgency of it. 291 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:39,000 Speaker 2: You just mentioned Donald Trump yourself. What does President Trump 292 00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 2: two point zero mean for the space race. 293 00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:44,080 Speaker 3: It's difficult, isn't it, Because it all comes down to budgets. 294 00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 3: The budgets are actually smaller than they used to be. 295 00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:49,160 Speaker 3: People think you must spend, spend. These countries are spending 296 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 3: more in real terms. They're not the USA for the 297 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:54,480 Speaker 3: space race, which was part of a war, the Cold War. 298 00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:56,120 Speaker 3: You know, they had to win that as part of 299 00:16:56,160 --> 00:16:58,400 Speaker 3: winning the Cold War. I think it was zero point 300 00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:01,240 Speaker 3: five percent of GDP well, and I think the budget 301 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:04,760 Speaker 3: now at state level is zero point three percent roughly 302 00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:08,080 Speaker 3: of GDP. So it was Trump that introduced space force 303 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:11,920 Speaker 3: amid much mirth, which you know, for me, I'm not 304 00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:15,480 Speaker 3: a supporter of him, but when when you use something 305 00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:19,600 Speaker 3: like that to make fun of him, it betrays that 306 00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:23,560 Speaker 3: you're not understanding him. He too bously trying to laugh 307 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:25,920 Speaker 3: at him, and it's an issue that has been gone 308 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:30,360 Speaker 3: on for years now. So he realized space force good 309 00:17:30,440 --> 00:17:33,720 Speaker 3: idea in the context of China's got one. Everyone's going 310 00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:36,800 Speaker 3: to have them. We need to up the game. Trump 311 00:17:36,920 --> 00:17:39,720 Speaker 3: is aware of how much the Chinese are spending on 312 00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:42,119 Speaker 3: space and doesn't want to get left behind. 313 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:45,520 Speaker 2: But Musk helps him. I mean, Musk has helped him 314 00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:47,880 Speaker 2: in the number of ways. In the last in the last, 315 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:53,440 Speaker 2: he'll make the case. Yeah, indeed, but Musk helps him 316 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:56,639 Speaker 2: in that his company space X is doing a lot 317 00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:59,000 Speaker 2: of the heavy lifting and they've got billions and billions 318 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:02,320 Speaker 2: of pounds of US funding. So it's a kind of 319 00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:05,080 Speaker 2: you know, an ecosystem where the one is scratching the 320 00:18:05,119 --> 00:18:08,160 Speaker 2: back of the other and assisting the space effort. 321 00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 3: It is and just as you'll know the I think 322 00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:15,879 Speaker 3: it's something like ninety percent of the US budget that 323 00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 3: goes on armaments for Ukraine is spent in the United 324 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:23,680 Speaker 3: States first building them. You know, it is very beneficial 325 00:18:24,119 --> 00:18:27,280 Speaker 3: to American industry. But it's a similar argument when it 326 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:30,240 Speaker 3: comes to space. And yes, Musk has his ear because 327 00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:32,680 Speaker 3: he's such a big player in the space industry. But 328 00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 3: also a lot of the things we've been talking about 329 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:37,680 Speaker 3: come together here space Marase two point zero, and the 330 00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:43,439 Speaker 3: centrality of private enterprise because, as I said, Boeing, lockeed Martin, 331 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:46,160 Speaker 3: many other companies, yet NASA went to them and said 332 00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:48,560 Speaker 3: can you build me that widget or that, But it 333 00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:53,680 Speaker 3: was very much a government driven It's now a rough 334 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:57,320 Speaker 3: percentage fifty percent is private enterprise and that's the same 335 00:18:57,400 --> 00:19:01,160 Speaker 3: in China, although all companies are controlled by the CCP, 336 00:19:01,359 --> 00:19:04,719 Speaker 3: but there's a lot of startups there. So private enterprise 337 00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:08,159 Speaker 3: in America is a major, major part of this. Private 338 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:11,280 Speaker 3: enterprise across the world is a major part of this. 339 00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:16,480 Speaker 2: I just wonder whether governments have had the conversation with 340 00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:20,040 Speaker 2: the electorate about everything we've just been discussing, the role 341 00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:23,240 Speaker 2: that it plays in people's lives. The centrality the you 342 00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:26,920 Speaker 2: know it is, if any of these satellites were taken down, 343 00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:30,840 Speaker 2: it's many billions of pounds of economic damage per day, right, 344 00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:33,439 Speaker 2: and so in order to make sure that they are 345 00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:36,359 Speaker 2: safe and protected and so on, there probably will in 346 00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:39,479 Speaker 2: these years ahead need to be greater money spent on them. 347 00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:43,120 Speaker 2: So I wonder, given we'd never have that conversation whether 348 00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:45,159 Speaker 2: it's a sort of going to be a shock to 349 00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:47,879 Speaker 2: prime ministers and their you know chances and so on 350 00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:53,000 Speaker 2: when the economic impact of them being vulnerable is fully understood. 351 00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 2: It's very striking in your book that passage where you 352 00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:59,159 Speaker 2: talk about how once America had put a man on 353 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 2: the moon, not long after they can the funding for it. 354 00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:06,040 Speaker 2: Because once you've done the kind of TV gold and 355 00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:09,160 Speaker 2: the historic moment. You know, we're we're in a different 356 00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:11,080 Speaker 2: area now, and so there is there is plenty more 357 00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:13,639 Speaker 2: to do. But at the time they made a different decision. 358 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 2: They made a decision that there were there were you know, 359 00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:19,200 Speaker 2: terrestrial policy programs they wanted to put that money into. 360 00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:23,800 Speaker 3: That I think would be relatively easy if you came 361 00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:26,680 Speaker 3: to the military side of it, people kind of understand 362 00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:32,720 Speaker 3: that protecting satellites from debris by cleaning up space, which 363 00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:35,760 Speaker 3: is a huge, huge issue. I thought war was going 364 00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:38,920 Speaker 3: to be the biggest issue, and then the experts explained 365 00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:40,560 Speaker 3: to me that what keeps them awake at night is 366 00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,959 Speaker 3: debris because in case the systems go down and as 367 00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:45,760 Speaker 3: you said, cost economy is billion. 368 00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 2: Well this is just to explain, this is just all 369 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:51,840 Speaker 2: bits of old satellite and junk from stations and so 370 00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:55,800 Speaker 2: on flying through space and knocking out satellite. 371 00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:58,040 Speaker 3: Which then knocks out of satellite, which then knocks out 372 00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:00,639 Speaker 3: of satellite, et cetera. So yeah, it's in the film gravity, 373 00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:05,159 Speaker 3: which they nicked off the Kesseler syndrome, which was the 374 00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:07,560 Speaker 3: sort of worst case scenario where they all crash into 375 00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:09,760 Speaker 3: each other in the world, economy collapses and goes dark. 376 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:12,960 Speaker 3: So I think you can make those cases. It gets 377 00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 3: harder when you just talk about exploration. You know why 378 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:20,240 Speaker 3: you cutting budgets here so we can go and explore there. 379 00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:25,120 Speaker 3: That's much harder. But I think as we gradually become 380 00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:27,440 Speaker 3: more and more aware of how important space is to 381 00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:31,480 Speaker 3: our economic livelihoods, and also if you can make the 382 00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:35,240 Speaker 3: very contentious case that it is worth burning all that 383 00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:38,879 Speaker 3: fuel and taking all those risks to go and mine 384 00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:43,320 Speaker 3: for and despoil the Moon. Yes, for the metals we 385 00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:47,240 Speaker 3: need for renewable energy. That's a hard sell as well. 386 00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:50,200 Speaker 3: But no, we're not really having these arguments. But I 387 00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:52,080 Speaker 3: think we'd be having more of them if it wasn't 388 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:54,720 Speaker 3: private enterprise making so much of the running. 389 00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:57,560 Speaker 2: Just to explain to the listeners, I mean there's a 390 00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:00,520 Speaker 2: lot of the scientific exploration on the Moon that is. 391 00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:04,640 Speaker 2: I mean, do you think it's pointless? I don't think 392 00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:07,440 Speaker 2: you do think it's pointless trying to use the Moon 393 00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:09,720 Speaker 2: as a stop ahead to Mars and so on. 394 00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:12,000 Speaker 3: I go back to what we said at the beginning, 395 00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:16,920 Speaker 3: and the race for oil, you can't afford not to 396 00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:20,760 Speaker 3: be there. The background to this is the Indians proved 397 00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:22,880 Speaker 3: there was water at the south pole of the Moon, 398 00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:25,480 Speaker 3: and they're the ones, the only ones who landed a 399 00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:28,520 Speaker 3: craft there. It's very hard to land the South Pole. 400 00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:32,960 Speaker 3: It's very rugged terrain, caves, mountains, boulders, and they've done it. 401 00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:37,840 Speaker 3: And that's because it is also very very likely that 402 00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:41,280 Speaker 3: there are large amounts of many of the metals. There's 403 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:45,119 Speaker 3: a small amount of lithium, quite liganite, all sorts of stuff, 404 00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:48,240 Speaker 3: and there's water. Therefore there's oxygen and hydrogen, and therefore 405 00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:52,320 Speaker 3: there's fuel and things to drink. So you've proved that 406 00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:56,440 Speaker 3: it's theoretically possible to go there. Now, get in there, 407 00:22:56,760 --> 00:23:00,639 Speaker 3: which everybody's trying to do, is also doable. It's weather. 408 00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:04,400 Speaker 3: Is there enough of the stuff down there? And can 409 00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:07,280 Speaker 3: you make it profitable to dig it up? Stick it 410 00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:09,800 Speaker 3: in some sort of space shuttle, because there are now 411 00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:12,399 Speaker 3: space planes. The Americans and the Chinese have got them 412 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 3: robotic they look like the shuttle. They can go up 413 00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:19,399 Speaker 3: from one two years in orbit. And further, is it 414 00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:23,160 Speaker 3: viable at the moment The economics don't add up, But lithium, 415 00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:26,960 Speaker 3: as you know, is destined. It is thought to go 416 00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:30,359 Speaker 3: up and think something like forty times its current value 417 00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:35,560 Speaker 3: over the next decade, and so as those prices of 418 00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:40,320 Speaker 3: these precious metals go up and the finite resource here 419 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:45,199 Speaker 3: goes down, so the economic modeling of the moon becomes 420 00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:50,320 Speaker 3: potentially more viable. But even though you're really I wouldn't 421 00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:52,800 Speaker 3: say you bet in the farm, but you know it's high, 422 00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:57,399 Speaker 3: high risk. But as a country or a company, you 423 00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:01,040 Speaker 3: cannot afford not to be part of this one. I 424 00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:02,879 Speaker 3: know we're going to run out of time. One last example, 425 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,120 Speaker 3: and this is even more theoretical, but it goes back 426 00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:07,280 Speaker 3: to what I said about oil, and you're not gonna it's. 427 00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:09,119 Speaker 2: A beauty podcast him. We've got as long as you 428 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:09,600 Speaker 2: want past. 429 00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:14,040 Speaker 3: Try and be brief. There's helium three on the moon. 430 00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:15,800 Speaker 3: We don't have very much of it here, there's lots 431 00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:18,159 Speaker 3: and lots of it in the soil and the rocks 432 00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:24,720 Speaker 3: up there. If AI could possibly crack nuclear fusion, not fission, 433 00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:26,480 Speaker 3: not breaking it apart the way we do now, not 434 00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:30,200 Speaker 3: smashing atoms apart, but fusion. If AI can do that, 435 00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:32,359 Speaker 3: because we've been told for years and years, it's we're 436 00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:34,920 Speaker 3: in the customer it. The helium three that's on the 437 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:40,399 Speaker 3: moon can be used as fuel, but radiation free fuel, 438 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:44,920 Speaker 3: and the head of the Chinese Space Agency, an eminent scientist, 439 00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:47,879 Speaker 3: believes there is enough helium three on the Moon in 440 00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:52,480 Speaker 3: those circumstances to fuel all of humanities and needs energy 441 00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:55,720 Speaker 3: needs on Earth for the next ten thousand years. Now. 442 00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:59,480 Speaker 3: I don't know if we're going to crack fusion. I 443 00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:01,760 Speaker 3: don't know if the economic modeling can go and get 444 00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:04,800 Speaker 3: the helium three. But the point I'm making is with 445 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:09,280 Speaker 3: those sorts of stakes there, which major player is just 446 00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:11,480 Speaker 3: going to say, nah, I'm not going to bother And 447 00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:13,600 Speaker 3: that is one of the reasons why we're going to go. 448 00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:17,240 Speaker 3: Another reason is much more romantic. There is something in 449 00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:20,720 Speaker 3: the human spirit, which is why we've always climbed to 450 00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:22,680 Speaker 3: the top of a mountain to see what was then 451 00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:24,800 Speaker 3: gone across an ocean, because we wondered what was on 452 00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:27,440 Speaker 3: the other side. And that is our restless spirit. So 453 00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:31,399 Speaker 3: I've spent forty five minutes talking economics and politics to you, 454 00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:34,439 Speaker 3: but you know there is also that side of us, 455 00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:37,960 Speaker 3: and that is another reason why we are going to 456 00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:38,440 Speaker 3: keep going. 457 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:44,000 Speaker 2: I'm trying to think forward to the moment when our 458 00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:46,560 Speaker 2: country and which country will it be, says do you 459 00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:49,960 Speaker 2: know what We're going to start digging you know that 460 00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:53,320 Speaker 2: moment when they start digging in any kind of industrial 461 00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:56,080 Speaker 2: way on the Moon. There's all sorts of legal and 462 00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:59,520 Speaker 2: ethical issues, not least that for many many people around 463 00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:03,199 Speaker 2: the world, the moon is spiritual. Sorry to go all 464 00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:04,040 Speaker 2: spiritual on. 465 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:07,800 Speaker 3: You, but you know, no, there are legal and ethical issues. 466 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:10,120 Speaker 3: And I don't you know, I don't want to sound 467 00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:14,679 Speaker 3: too cold saying that it's more cynical than cold, all right. 468 00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:16,800 Speaker 3: I mean this brings us back to the Artemist Accords 469 00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:21,399 Speaker 3: America series of bilateral agreements with more than forty countries now, 470 00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 3: and in the Artemist Accords, it's clearly states that if 471 00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:29,840 Speaker 3: you've invested all that money in going to the Moon, 472 00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:34,840 Speaker 3: and then you've invested digging, and then you strike gold, 473 00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:38,920 Speaker 3: the new gold, you can then declare a safety zone. 474 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:44,600 Speaker 3: Well how big, Well you choose for how long you choose? 475 00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:47,240 Speaker 3: Now that sounds to me like sovereignty under another name. 476 00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:50,080 Speaker 3: And you can quote to me as much as you 477 00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:53,160 Speaker 3: like the nineteen sixty seven Out of Space Treaty, which 478 00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:56,200 Speaker 3: was not ratified by everybody and it's completely out of date. 479 00:26:56,640 --> 00:27:00,280 Speaker 3: But I'm going to keep digging, so you know, I 480 00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:08,080 Speaker 3: accept these ethical and legal challenges the ethical challenges to 481 00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:13,399 Speaker 3: mining lithium in the DRC may be correct, but they 482 00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:18,399 Speaker 3: haven't won the argument and the legal aspects of X, 483 00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:22,199 Speaker 3: Y and Z. Well, you and whose army were? You're 484 00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:23,960 Speaker 3: gonna fly me at the moon and stop me. So 485 00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:27,639 Speaker 3: I'm sorry to sound so cynical, but you know this 486 00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:33,800 Speaker 3: is big industry, big government, and big stakes for winning, 487 00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:38,480 Speaker 3: potentially winning, but certainly being involved in one of the 488 00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:42,399 Speaker 3: big energy questions of the twenty first century. So I 489 00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:47,119 Speaker 3: suspect that has more weight than the objections that are 490 00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:48,840 Speaker 3: already being sounded. 491 00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:50,080 Speaker 2: How many years away is it? 492 00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:54,080 Speaker 3: I think in the twenty thirties we will have moon bases. 493 00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:56,920 Speaker 3: I think in the twenty thirties we will have started 494 00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:03,159 Speaker 3: mining at what scale I don't know, but everything I 495 00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:06,879 Speaker 3: see at the moment points that that is going ahead. 496 00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:10,240 Speaker 3: Another legal point out of Space Treaty, you cannot own 497 00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:13,200 Speaker 3: any part of space or a planet or the moon. Fine, 498 00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:17,800 Speaker 3: who owns those rocks that were brought back? And NASA 499 00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:20,840 Speaker 3: is currently tendering for a company and I think a 500 00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:23,000 Speaker 3: Japanese company may have won it. I want you to 501 00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:25,240 Speaker 3: go at the Moon, dig up a rock, bring it back, 502 00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:28,280 Speaker 3: and sell it to me for a dollar. Now, what's 503 00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:30,000 Speaker 3: in it for the company, what's in it for NASA. 504 00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:32,720 Speaker 3: The company's going to get a lot more tenders and 505 00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:36,160 Speaker 3: a dollar. But NASA are going to prove norms. They're 506 00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:40,960 Speaker 3: going to establish norms because once you've bought that, you 507 00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:44,480 Speaker 3: have established that, Yes, you owned it, you sold it 508 00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:46,760 Speaker 3: to me. I own it, and I know it's only 509 00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:49,640 Speaker 3: a dollar and a rock. But the point is you're 510 00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:52,880 Speaker 3: establishing norms. Another one the United Nations Convention of the 511 00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:55,040 Speaker 3: Law of the Sea, which I'm sure you read most evenings. 512 00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:59,320 Speaker 3: Only a few countries signed out when it started. Now 513 00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:03,680 Speaker 3: it is the norm. The Artemis Accords were signed by 514 00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:05,880 Speaker 3: only twelve countries when it launched, and now it's more 515 00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:09,840 Speaker 3: than forty. It is establishing the norms. And the Artemist 516 00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:13,560 Speaker 3: Cause allows for drilling and bringing back and selling. So 517 00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:16,080 Speaker 3: you know, we're in a new era. I just think 518 00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:18,240 Speaker 3: we still think about space that where we thought about 519 00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:20,680 Speaker 3: it in the sixties and seventies, we've moved on. 520 00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,800 Speaker 2: It was very striking, wasn't it a few months back 521 00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,760 Speaker 2: to have the Americans let it be known that they 522 00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:32,280 Speaker 2: believe that Russians will target satellites, so that to the 523 00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:36,479 Speaker 2: expression the public admission that now satellites are part of warfare. 524 00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:40,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, something has happened there which is obviously so classified. 525 00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:43,760 Speaker 3: We don't have the details because before they did that, 526 00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:47,440 Speaker 3: several months prior to that, they said that the Russians 527 00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:50,560 Speaker 3: were working on a new weapon in space, and I 528 00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:55,200 Speaker 3: was trying to figure out what. And there's two obvious scenarios. 529 00:29:56,200 --> 00:30:00,600 Speaker 3: One genuinely is a nuclear bomb in space, which yes, 530 00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,840 Speaker 3: I know it's forbidden, but you know, so is invading Ukraine. 531 00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:08,120 Speaker 3: You can explode a very small yield nuclear bomb in space, 532 00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:11,880 Speaker 3: probably without setting the atmosphere on fire. And the reason 533 00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:13,680 Speaker 3: you would want to do that is that at the 534 00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:17,640 Speaker 3: moment you can fire a ballistic missilet big satellite and 535 00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:19,800 Speaker 3: knock it out, hitting a bullet with a bullet. It's 536 00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:22,800 Speaker 3: incredibly hard and incredibly expensive, but if you were just 537 00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:25,840 Speaker 3: to the second problem is that because the satellites are 538 00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:29,800 Speaker 3: now so small, and you have an array of satellites, 539 00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:33,280 Speaker 3: it's very small ones maybe twenty of them in a constellation, 540 00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:36,120 Speaker 3: and if you hit one of them, well they still work, 541 00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:37,800 Speaker 3: and then you go and you just put another one 542 00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:41,120 Speaker 3: up there, so to wipe out the whole twenty or fifty, 543 00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:45,920 Speaker 3: a very very small nuclear bomb or some other form 544 00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:49,120 Speaker 3: of explosion will do it. So that's one scenario, and 545 00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:51,960 Speaker 3: the other one is this idea of a direct energy weapon, 546 00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:54,920 Speaker 3: which now exists on Earth. They hit the drones, are 547 00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:59,120 Speaker 3: these lasers laser beams burn them out? Again? It could 548 00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:01,640 Speaker 3: be sticking one of them. So the Americans have done 549 00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:04,560 Speaker 3: two things. They've warned they're looking at a weapon in space, 550 00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:09,160 Speaker 3: and now they're saying, and it's to hit the satellites. 551 00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:12,320 Speaker 3: It's not inevitable that it's going to happen. It's inevitable 552 00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:18,240 Speaker 3: that space will be weaponized, because if you disbelieve me, 553 00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:22,600 Speaker 3: you have to just ignore the last twelve thousand years 554 00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:27,600 Speaker 3: of recorded history. So why would given that we've weaponized 555 00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:30,320 Speaker 3: pretty much every other year we've gone into, why we're 556 00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:32,200 Speaker 3: not going to weaponize this one. It's why the French 557 00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:35,880 Speaker 3: are already working on bodyguard satellites, putting a satellite between 558 00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:39,640 Speaker 3: one that's really important and has perhaps their nuclear codes 559 00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:44,280 Speaker 3: early warning system in it and the potential aggressive satellite 560 00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:47,480 Speaker 3: that might be approaching it. These things are in train. 561 00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:51,800 Speaker 2: Tim Marshall, that was fantastic. Now Votomics for its next 562 00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:53,920 Speaker 2: episode will have to come firmly back to Earth, but 563 00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:57,080 Speaker 2: for this one, thank you very much. Thank you good stuff. 564 00:31:57,160 --> 00:31:58,640 Speaker 3: Tim. Yeah, it was fun, wasn't it. 565 00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:05,320 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to this week's Vota Nomics from Bloomberg. 566 00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:09,120 Speaker 2: This episode was hosted by me Alegri Stratton. It was 567 00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:13,200 Speaker 2: produced by Sumersadi, with booking support from Chris Martlu, production 568 00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:17,440 Speaker 2: support and sound designed by Moses and am Brendan Francis 569 00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:21,400 Speaker 2: Newnham is our executive producer. Sage Bauman is Head of 570 00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:25,880 Speaker 2: Podcasts and special thanks to Tim Marshall. Please subscribe, rate, 571 00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:28,520 Speaker 2: and review wherever you listen to podcasts