1
00:00:00,720 --> 00:00:03,240
Speaker 1: All right, guys. So earlier today we talked about how

2
00:00:03,279 --> 00:00:07,480
Speaker 1: Trump had announced the bombing of Carg Island in Iran,

3
00:00:07,520 --> 00:00:11,360
Speaker 1: which is very important to their oil exporting and we're

4
00:00:11,400 --> 00:00:14,040
Speaker 1: privileged now to be joined by doctor tree Toparsi, he

5
00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:16,880
Speaker 1: is the executive vice president over at the Quincy Institute

6
00:00:16,880 --> 00:00:19,600
Speaker 1: for Responsible Politics, to talk about that and some other

7
00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:22,480
Speaker 1: significant developments that have been unfolding in the Iran War

8
00:00:22,480 --> 00:00:22,800
Speaker 1: as well.

9
00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:25,280
Speaker 2: Great to see you, doctor, Good to see you again.

10
00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:28,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, of course, So let's go ahead and put this

11
00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:32,199
Speaker 1: Trump truth up on the screen, just to get the

12
00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:35,400
Speaker 1: exact words from the President himself, he says, moments ago

13
00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:38,479
Speaker 1: my direction, the United States Central Command executed one of

14
00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:40,640
Speaker 1: the most powerful bombing rates in the history of the

15
00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:45,400
Speaker 1: Middle East and totally obliterated every military target in Iran's

16
00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:48,120
Speaker 1: crown jewel, Carg Island. Our weapons are the most powerful

17
00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:50,400
Speaker 1: and sophisticated that the world has ever known, but for

18
00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:53,720
Speaker 1: reasons of decency, I've chosen not to wipe out the

19
00:00:53,760 --> 00:00:56,520
Speaker 1: oil infrastructure on the island. However, should Iran or anyone

20
00:00:56,560 --> 00:00:59,600
Speaker 1: else do anything to interfere with the free and safe

21
00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:01,800
Speaker 1: passage of ships through the Strait of Hormones I will

22
00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:05,240
Speaker 1: immediately reconsider this decision. During my first term and currently,

23
00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:08,360
Speaker 1: I rebuilt our military into the most lethal, powerful and

24
00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:11,280
Speaker 1: effective force by far anywhere in the world. Auran has

25
00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:14,920
Speaker 1: no ability to defend anything we want to attack. There's

26
00:01:14,959 --> 00:01:17,240
Speaker 1: nothing they can do about it. Auran will never have

27
00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:19,280
Speaker 1: a nuclear weapon or will it have the ability to

28
00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:22,080
Speaker 1: threaten the United States of America, the Middle East, or

29
00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:25,120
Speaker 1: for that matter, the world. So this was the announcement

30
00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:28,600
Speaker 1: we received yesterday evening, and sure enough, you know, reporting

31
00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:30,840
Speaker 1: is that Carr Island was hit, that it was the

32
00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:35,800
Speaker 1: military infrastructure, that the oil infrastructure remains intact. Your reaction

33
00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:38,520
Speaker 1: to these latest developments, I.

34
00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:42,280
Speaker 2: Think, frankly, we're further seeing him Trump losing control whatver

35
00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:45,200
Speaker 2: it is Iran it apparently seems to have even escalation

36
00:01:45,319 --> 00:01:49,520
Speaker 2: control at this point because they struck at oil facilities,

37
00:01:49,600 --> 00:01:54,720
Speaker 2: not military facilities, oil facilities in UAE. In response to this,

38
00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:58,480
Speaker 2: I think we have now a situation in which Trump

39
00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:02,800
Speaker 2: actually is recognizing that the Iranians have this leverage over

40
00:02:02,840 --> 00:02:05,279
Speaker 2: the strait of hormones, over oil, and he doesn't really

41
00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:08,000
Speaker 2: have what it takes to go all the way to

42
00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:10,760
Speaker 2: attack these things because he is now finally recognizing that

43
00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:13,800
Speaker 2: that would be absolutely suicidal. Even if he were to

44
00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:17,160
Speaker 2: strike at the oil facilities at that island, it does

45
00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:20,799
Speaker 2: not mean that the Iranians will open up the strait

46
00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:22,760
Speaker 2: or that the Iranians will not be able to export

47
00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:25,880
Speaker 2: their own oil. During the Iraq Iran War, that island

48
00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:30,600
Speaker 2: was struck constantly by the Iraqis. The Iranians found various workarounds.

49
00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:33,040
Speaker 2: Obviously it's very bad for I'm not trying to downplay it,

50
00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:37,040
Speaker 2: but they have workarounds. They put those in place back then.

51
00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:39,680
Speaker 2: I would suspect that they're even more sophisticated at this

52
00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:43,120
Speaker 2: point compared to them, whereas they now have really the

53
00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:46,040
Speaker 2: control over the Strait of hormones. They're the ones who

54
00:02:46,080 --> 00:02:48,600
Speaker 2: decide which ships go in and which ships don't. And

55
00:02:48,720 --> 00:02:50,760
Speaker 2: just to see as the evidence of that is that

56
00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:54,320
Speaker 2: India is negotiating itself with Ivan for free passage, and

57
00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:57,360
Speaker 2: so is France and Italy. They didn't go to Trump

58
00:02:57,760 --> 00:03:00,440
Speaker 2: to negotiate free passage. They went to Iran because it's

59
00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:03,080
Speaker 2: the Iranians that are in control. And now, for the

60
00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:05,720
Speaker 2: first time in a very long time, the Iranians actually

61
00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:09,919
Speaker 2: have leverage. They have significant leverage when they didn't have leverage,

62
00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:12,760
Speaker 2: and in the negotiations they gave concessions. It didn't get

63
00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:14,760
Speaker 2: them anything. It get them It got them this war.

64
00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:17,440
Speaker 2: Now they have leverage, I don't find it very likely

65
00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:20,320
Speaker 2: that they will give it up without getting major concessions

66
00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:22,760
Speaker 2: in return. And if yours, of course, there is that

67
00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:25,000
Speaker 2: the Iranians will do the same mistake as the Trump

68
00:03:25,040 --> 00:03:27,480
Speaker 2: administration did, which is to overplay their hands.

69
00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:32,200
Speaker 1: Let me get your reaction to this additional truth social

70
00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:35,360
Speaker 1: that came from the President. Let me just pull this

71
00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:38,120
Speaker 1: one fully up on the screen. I'm sorry.

72
00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:39,640
Speaker 2: There we go.

73
00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:44,200
Speaker 1: Many countries, especially those who are affected by Iran's attempted

74
00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:46,800
Speaker 1: closure of the hormone strait, will be sending warships in

75
00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:48,680
Speaker 1: conjunction with the United States of America to keep the

76
00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:51,560
Speaker 1: straight open and safe. We've already destroyed one hundred percent

77
00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:54,680
Speaker 1: of Iran's military capability, but it's easy for them to

78
00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:57,600
Speaker 1: send a drone or to drop a mind or deliver

79
00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:00,680
Speaker 1: a close range missile somewhere along or in waterway, no

80
00:04:00,720 --> 00:04:05,400
Speaker 1: matter how badly defeated they are. Hopefully China, France, Japan,

81
00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:08,000
Speaker 1: South Korea, the UK and others that are affected by

82
00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:10,360
Speaker 1: this artificial constraint will send ships to the area, so

83
00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:13,000
Speaker 1: the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by

84
00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:16,839
Speaker 1: a nation that has been totally decapitated. In the meantime,

85
00:04:16,880 --> 00:04:18,880
Speaker 1: the US will be bombing the hell out of the

86
00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:21,600
Speaker 1: shoreline and continually shooting Iranian boats and ships out of

87
00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:23,920
Speaker 1: the water. One way or the other, we will soon

88
00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:28,599
Speaker 1: get the Hormuz straight open, safe and free. So they're

89
00:04:28,640 --> 00:04:32,240
Speaker 1: hoping that China will join this fight alongside of us

90
00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:34,840
Speaker 1: to reopen the Strait of Hormus.

91
00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:39,000
Speaker 2: May look every sentence there contradicts the next, first declaring

92
00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:42,000
Speaker 2: complete victory, saying that these countries will and then later

93
00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:45,880
Speaker 2: on saying hopefully these countries will join in this effort.

94
00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:48,680
Speaker 2: You're seeing the words of a man who actually has

95
00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:51,800
Speaker 2: been defeated, and who knows it. This is the desperation

96
00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:55,200
Speaker 2: phase of this war at this point. The question, though,

97
00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:58,000
Speaker 2: is it hasn't yet ended, and it can end in

98
00:04:58,040 --> 00:05:00,839
Speaker 2: a much worse way than what we're already in. He's

99
00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:05,920
Speaker 2: looking at increasingly bad escalatory options to give the pretense

100
00:05:05,960 --> 00:05:08,159
Speaker 2: that he is in control, hoping that the sounds of

101
00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:11,160
Speaker 2: more explosions in Iran will cover up the fact that

102
00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:13,320
Speaker 2: he has absolutely no strategy.

103
00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:17,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, and just talk to us a little bit about

104
00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:21,240
Speaker 1: why reopening the strait has become clearly so central in

105
00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:24,240
Speaker 1: Trump's mind. And I think it's also worth noting that

106
00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:27,320
Speaker 1: all of these moves occurred after the markets closed on Friday,

107
00:05:27,320 --> 00:05:29,160
Speaker 1: which I don't think is an accident.

108
00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:33,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, and even then he actually didn't strike the old facilities.

109
00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:36,480
Speaker 2: If I'm sitting in Tehran right now, I will interpret

110
00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:40,680
Speaker 2: that as Trump's aim at playing mad man has come

111
00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:43,600
Speaker 2: to an end and that he is now being constrained

112
00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:46,479
Speaker 2: by others. He probably wanted to go all the way.

113
00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:48,800
Speaker 2: This is just speculation on my end. He wanted to

114
00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:51,839
Speaker 2: go all the way, but there was such pushback inside

115
00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:55,440
Speaker 2: the US government pointing out the tremendous negative effects this

116
00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:58,479
Speaker 2: would have on the global economy, on all market and

117
00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:02,400
Speaker 2: on the US economy months before midterm, that he had

118
00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:04,880
Speaker 2: to pull it back and instead just that this pinpoint

119
00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:09,400
Speaker 2: attacks against the military facilities, which then tells Divanians Trump

120
00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:13,159
Speaker 2: is not willing to escalate further. This further strengthens their sense,

121
00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:16,479
Speaker 2: false or correctly, that they are more in control of

122
00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:17,760
Speaker 2: the situation right now.

123
00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:21,680
Speaker 1: So you see this, you believe the Iranians will perceive this,

124
00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:25,719
Speaker 1: in spite of the bluster, as effectively being a sign

125
00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:29,039
Speaker 1: of weakness that he attacked, he constrained his attacks to

126
00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:33,400
Speaker 1: the military facilities, is only threatening the oil infrastructure, but

127
00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:36,240
Speaker 1: is unwilling to go there himself because of the pain

128
00:06:36,279 --> 00:06:38,480
Speaker 1: that he knows that will create in his own economy.

129
00:06:39,240 --> 00:06:41,640
Speaker 2: I believe that that is a likely interpretation on the

130
00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:44,080
Speaker 2: Iranian side. I think there was an expectation on the

131
00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:48,240
Speaker 2: Iranian side that he will take attack to old facilities

132
00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:50,520
Speaker 2: on that island, that it potentially even tried to seize

133
00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:53,640
Speaker 2: the island. The Iranians know that seizing the island actually

134
00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:57,000
Speaker 2: is not that terribly difficult. Keeping it and making it

135
00:06:57,040 --> 00:07:00,320
Speaker 2: any thing of value is what much more difficult, because

136
00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:03,800
Speaker 2: the Iranians can then rain drones and missiles on that island,

137
00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:06,200
Speaker 2: which is right off their coast. I mean, the time

138
00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:09,360
Speaker 2: these drones would fly would be so short, and they

139
00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:12,360
Speaker 2: have such more effective short range missiles compared to their

140
00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:15,400
Speaker 2: long term missiles long distance missiles which also have proven

141
00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:18,400
Speaker 2: to be very effective. But they would at that point

142
00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:21,440
Speaker 2: also destroy their own island and their own oil facilities,

143
00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:23,720
Speaker 2: which would be a very high cost to the Iranians. So

144
00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:26,280
Speaker 2: I think we've seen a point in which the US

145
00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:29,880
Speaker 2: kind of back down from a very very strong escalatory move,

146
00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:32,800
Speaker 2: recognizing that this would be more or less suicidal. My colleague,

147
00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:35,200
Speaker 2: the imeir hand Journey at the Quincy Institute, believes that

148
00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:37,760
Speaker 2: what we're seeing right now and either an economists is

149
00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:42,760
Speaker 2: the beginning of the COVID phase of the global economy.

150
00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:45,320
Speaker 2: That it's going in that direction, which means that we

151
00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:49,640
Speaker 2: will have a major, major economic contraction. COVID ended up

152
00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:53,720
Speaker 2: costing in the first year and negative three percent GDP

153
00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:57,120
Speaker 2: contraction globally, and that this is now the early phases

154
00:07:57,160 --> 00:08:00,360
Speaker 2: of that unless this war is stopped. But stopping war

155
00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:04,000
Speaker 2: is no longer in the control of Trump. He and

156
00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:05,400
Speaker 2: this is part of the reason why you're seeing this

157
00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:09,160
Speaker 2: increasingly desperate language. He knows very well that even if

158
00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:13,520
Speaker 2: he stops attacking Iran, pulls out of the waters in

159
00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:17,040
Speaker 2: the Indian Ocean, declares victory, points to things that he

160
00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:19,600
Speaker 2: actually had achieved in this war in terms of degrading

161
00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:22,760
Speaker 2: Iran's military. The Iranians will likely continue to close the

162
00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:26,000
Speaker 2: straits and control who comes in and who doesn't because

163
00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:28,000
Speaker 2: they have that ability. Right now, This is not the

164
00:08:28,040 --> 00:08:30,240
Speaker 2: same closure of the Straits as it would have been

165
00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:32,000
Speaker 2: twenty years ago, in which they would have just put

166
00:08:32,080 --> 00:08:35,040
Speaker 2: mines in the waters and they would have no control

167
00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:37,800
Speaker 2: whose ships would be exploded. Now they have full control.

168
00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:40,640
Speaker 2: They can control whether a Chinese ships goes in or not,

169
00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:43,760
Speaker 2: whether Italian one goes in, and they themselves are actually

170
00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:47,280
Speaker 2: been exploding more oil during the war than they did

171
00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:48,319
Speaker 2: try it to the war.

172
00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:51,320
Speaker 1: What did you think of the move on their part

173
00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:54,719
Speaker 1: to say we will light some ships through, but it's

174
00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:56,960
Speaker 1: going to be denominated not in US dollars but in

175
00:08:57,120 --> 00:08:57,800
Speaker 1: Chinese yuan.

176
00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:01,320
Speaker 2: I mean, they're doing every thing they can to just

177
00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:04,520
Speaker 2: squeeze Trump and the US economy as much as possible.

178
00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:06,440
Speaker 2: I don't know if that's going to be successful in

179
00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:10,640
Speaker 2: terms of getting countries to switch over, but many of

180
00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:13,000
Speaker 2: those countries are going to be quite desperate. I mean,

181
00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:16,319
Speaker 2: India only has old reserves for twenty five days. The

182
00:09:16,520 --> 00:09:19,840
Speaker 2: impact on Asian markets right now has already been devastating.

183
00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:23,400
Speaker 2: Already last weekend they started to cut down on the

184
00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:26,280
Speaker 2: number of days schools are open, offices are open because

185
00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:28,640
Speaker 2: they don't have the few for all of these different things.

186
00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:30,760
Speaker 2: The US is a little bit further removed, has a

187
00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:33,600
Speaker 2: much stronger reserve. But all of those things that is

188
00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:36,280
Speaker 2: happening in the global economy, just as it was with COVID,

189
00:09:36,559 --> 00:09:38,719
Speaker 2: will come back to haunt the US economy as well,

190
00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:39,559
Speaker 2: sooner or later.

191
00:09:40,280 --> 00:09:42,520
Speaker 1: Let me ask you about this reporting from the Wall

192
00:09:42,520 --> 00:09:48,600
Speaker 1: Street Journal, which indicates that this is Aliabbona, sorry Abumna,

193
00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:51,880
Speaker 1: who's a great reporter and journalist, and he's saying US

194
00:09:51,920 --> 00:09:54,680
Speaker 1: military leaking. They warned Trump that iron would close Hormos,

195
00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:57,400
Speaker 1: but he ignored them, thinking Iran would collapse and he'd

196
00:09:57,400 --> 00:10:00,320
Speaker 1: get swift, decisive victory. And here's one of the quotes

197
00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:03,080
Speaker 1: from here. General Dan Caine, chair of the Joint Chiefs

198
00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:05,560
Speaker 1: of Staff, told Trump an American attack could prompt Iran

199
00:10:05,640 --> 00:10:08,160
Speaker 1: to close the Strait of Hormuz. Kine said in several

200
00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:11,360
Speaker 1: brief briefings that US officials had long believed Iran would

201
00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:14,000
Speaker 1: deploy minds, drones and missiles to close the world's most

202
00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:17,720
Speaker 1: vital shipping lane. Trump acknowledged the risk, these people said,

203
00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:22,320
Speaker 1: but move forward anyway. He told his team that Tehran

204
00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:26,880
Speaker 1: would likely capitulate before closing the straight, and even if

205
00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:31,240
Speaker 1: Iran tried, the US military could handle it. So I

206
00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:33,600
Speaker 1: think a few things that were noteworthy to me. I mean,

207
00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:35,439
Speaker 1: first of all, just the fact that these leaks are

208
00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:38,199
Speaker 1: coming out now of people in the administration, likely in

209
00:10:38,240 --> 00:10:40,960
Speaker 1: the military bras are trying to say, listen, we tried

210
00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:43,800
Speaker 1: to tell this guy that this was bad idea, which

211
00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:46,160
Speaker 1: shows you as an indication that on the inside they

212
00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:49,000
Speaker 1: also think that this is, you know, a catastrophe on

213
00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:51,640
Speaker 1: their hands at this point. And then obviously the details

214
00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:55,520
Speaker 1: here that Trump, rather than listening to military experts, was

215
00:10:55,720 --> 00:10:58,720
Speaker 1: sort of high on his own supply, coming off what

216
00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:02,480
Speaker 1: he perceives as this magnificent victory in Venezuela, and thought,

217
00:11:02,480 --> 00:11:05,000
Speaker 1: all the Iranians, they'll they'll capitulate. They're just going to

218
00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:08,439
Speaker 1: threaten this it's an empty threat, and they'll they'll break

219
00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:10,080
Speaker 1: before we ever get to this point.

220
00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:14,280
Speaker 2: With one small, well actually very important addition to that,

221
00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:17,240
Speaker 2: there was some other people also whispering in his air,

222
00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:21,120
Speaker 2: saying ignore the advice of the US Intelligence Service, ignored

223
00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:23,280
Speaker 2: the advice of the US military, and that what the

224
00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:26,679
Speaker 2: Israelis who are telling him constantly Iran is at its

225
00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:30,280
Speaker 2: weakest points. Ever, they will capitolate. They have no other option.

226
00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:32,240
Speaker 2: Go back to what I've been saying for the last

227
00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:34,679
Speaker 2: couple of months that the whole approach to the diplomacy

228
00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:37,680
Speaker 2: was erroneous because he was under the false impression that

229
00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:40,480
Speaker 2: the Iranians are much weaker than they actually were. He

230
00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:43,640
Speaker 2: ruined the diplomacy because he thought capitulation was in the cart,

231
00:11:43,920 --> 00:11:46,400
Speaker 2: and now he's turning a war into a debacle because

232
00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:49,160
Speaker 2: he thinks capitulation is in the card. And this was

233
00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:51,400
Speaker 2: not something that he came up on his own. This

234
00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:54,040
Speaker 2: was something that the Raelis kept on pushing onto him.

235
00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:55,720
Speaker 2: I mean, the whole idea that there was a moment

236
00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:58,560
Speaker 2: to attack was because Iran is at its weakest ever.

237
00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:00,560
Speaker 2: I mean, just go back and look at the reporting

238
00:12:00,760 --> 00:12:04,120
Speaker 2: from that time. This was constantly repeated by the pro

239
00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:07,520
Speaker 2: Israeli crowd in Washington and by Israeli officials. Those are

240
00:12:07,559 --> 00:12:10,000
Speaker 2: the people Trump chose to listen to instead of his

241
00:12:10,080 --> 00:12:11,520
Speaker 2: own military and here we are.

242
00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:13,920
Speaker 1: What do you make of the reporting that the Saudis

243
00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:17,240
Speaker 1: also were influential in pushing Trump towards war.

244
00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:19,840
Speaker 2: I think the picture that has emerged is that the

245
00:12:19,880 --> 00:12:23,840
Speaker 2: Saudi Foreign ministry actually lobbied against this war, but unbeknownst

246
00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:27,840
Speaker 2: to them, MBS himself lobbied in favor of it, and

247
00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:29,760
Speaker 2: this has been a pattern that we've seen in the

248
00:12:29,800 --> 00:12:32,800
Speaker 2: past in which NBS does his own thing completely above

249
00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:35,920
Speaker 2: the government, kind of like Trump, and the rest of

250
00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:39,040
Speaker 2: the government is not necessarily even aware of it. We're

251
00:12:39,040 --> 00:12:42,680
Speaker 2: also seeing now that there is clear evidence that the

252
00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:47,200
Speaker 2: US has been using some GCC states sold Saudi Arabia

253
00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:51,320
Speaker 2: and Bahrain to attack Yuan. And we've seen how the

254
00:12:51,360 --> 00:12:57,000
Speaker 2: Iranians have struck at Saudi basis and destroyed. American refueling

255
00:12:57,080 --> 00:13:01,640
Speaker 2: planes are extremely expensive them, if I'm not mistaken. So

256
00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:05,240
Speaker 2: even though those bases may not at that point have

257
00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:09,600
Speaker 2: been used and we don't know for certain for direct attacks,

258
00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:14,319
Speaker 2: they were integrity part of the logistics and the refueling.

259
00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:19,560
Speaker 2: In fact, the Israeli planes have had their whatever that

260
00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:22,480
Speaker 2: thing is called on trackers on so that you know,

261
00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:25,080
Speaker 2: the Vivonnians could see that Israeli planes were flying to

262
00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:28,520
Speaker 2: the Saudi airfields in the midst of that war. So

263
00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:31,000
Speaker 2: part of the reason why the Vanians are striking as well,

264
00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:33,200
Speaker 2: it's not just because they're trying to squeeze the economy,

265
00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:36,400
Speaker 2: et cetera, is because there is a realization on both sides.

266
00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:38,960
Speaker 2: Both sides I have kind of pretended as if everything

267
00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:40,800
Speaker 2: is better than it is, But behind the scenes, it's

268
00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:43,720
Speaker 2: clear evidence that some of these states have actually been

269
00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:48,160
Speaker 2: somewhat supportive of this war. Logistically, they may have had

270
00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:50,400
Speaker 2: great difficulty saying no to Trump. They may not have

271
00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:53,200
Speaker 2: done it eagerly, but this is part of the reason

272
00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:55,400
Speaker 2: why the Vaneys have been also been striking at some

273
00:13:55,440 --> 00:13:57,120
Speaker 2: of these Saudi airfields.

274
00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:00,319
Speaker 1: So I saw and I'm sure you did it as well.

275
00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:04,160
Speaker 1: The reports that they're bringing in this marine expeditionary force,

276
00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:08,160
Speaker 1: some twenty five hundred marines being rushed into the region.

277
00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:11,520
Speaker 1: What does that tell you about where this war may

278
00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:13,480
Speaker 1: go next? From the US.

279
00:14:13,400 --> 00:14:15,800
Speaker 2: Side, it just looks to me as if it's getting

280
00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:17,440
Speaker 2: more and more desperate. Now, are they going to use

281
00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:21,040
Speaker 2: those twenty five hundred troops marines to go and take

282
00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:24,120
Speaker 2: that island. They might succeed in taking the island, but

283
00:14:24,160 --> 00:14:27,440
Speaker 2: then they're sitting ducks and the Iranians will rain missiles

284
00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:29,800
Speaker 2: and drones onto them. They will destroy their own island

285
00:14:29,840 --> 00:14:32,280
Speaker 2: and all the old facilities, but they will get far

286
00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:34,960
Speaker 2: more American casualties than they have been able to get

287
00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:38,120
Speaker 2: by striking places. They empty bases in Bahrain and in

288
00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:41,680
Speaker 2: Kuwait in other places. And what can you achieve with

289
00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:45,120
Speaker 2: twenty five hundred dollars now troops? And is this about

290
00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:49,560
Speaker 2: doing some special operations inside of Iranian territory, going in

291
00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:53,560
Speaker 2: and taking the nuclear You know they have the and

292
00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:56,240
Speaker 2: rich uranium somewhere under the mountains there there is still

293
00:14:56,280 --> 00:15:00,240
Speaker 2: some potential leverage for the Ranians. That would be an

294
00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:05,080
Speaker 2: extremely risky operation. This is not like, you know, sneaking

295
00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:09,400
Speaker 2: into someone's house and stealing their wallet and going out.

296
00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:11,960
Speaker 2: This will take hours and hours in which they would

297
00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:14,760
Speaker 2: be sitting ducks and would be under tremendous attacks. This

298
00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:17,800
Speaker 2: will be extremely risky. So it's just not clear to

299
00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:19,800
Speaker 2: me at all, and I think it's not clear to

300
00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:22,960
Speaker 2: Trump either. He went in with the wrong impression this

301
00:15:23,120 --> 00:15:24,920
Speaker 2: was going to be easy. He's now stuck in a

302
00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:26,440
Speaker 2: war that he doesn't know how to get out of.

303
00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:29,400
Speaker 2: There is a path out. There is a path out,

304
00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:31,960
Speaker 2: and that is that the US will call an end

305
00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:35,440
Speaker 2: to this war. But there will also be negotiation indirectly

306
00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:37,320
Speaker 2: with the audience, and the Yonians are going to ask

307
00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:40,000
Speaker 2: for certain things, and I suspect that some of them

308
00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:43,800
Speaker 2: will be completely unacceptable, such as reparations, but I think

309
00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:47,520
Speaker 2: that other things will perhaps be in that moment when

310
00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:51,480
Speaker 2: it's become absolutely clear that this is beyond insane. At

311
00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:53,960
Speaker 2: that moment, it may actually be feasible for the United

312
00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:56,680
Speaker 2: States to also do some sanctions relief for the audience,

313
00:15:57,600 --> 00:16:01,360
Speaker 2: for instance, lifting sanctions on the GCC state or some

314
00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:04,520
Speaker 2: Asian states that would then start trading with Ivanians, and

315
00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:07,360
Speaker 2: that would be something that Yuanians could then accept in

316
00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:09,440
Speaker 2: order to open the straits. Others are saying, and you

317
00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:11,680
Speaker 2: will see an outbit on Monday, that this will actually

318
00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:14,440
Speaker 2: cost a trillion dollars to get the straits open, and

319
00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:16,400
Speaker 2: most of that will be money that will be coming

320
00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:19,840
Speaker 2: from Saudi Arabia and the UAE as a compensation to Iran,

321
00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:23,480
Speaker 2: that they will pay the repatoration reparations to Iran for

322
00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:25,280
Speaker 2: this war. I'm not sure it's going to go exactly

323
00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:28,440
Speaker 2: in that direction and those amounts, but I think there's

324
00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:31,320
Speaker 2: a premise in that argument that is true. This is

325
00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:33,360
Speaker 2: not going to be cost free in terms of ending

326
00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:35,720
Speaker 2: the war. There's going to have to be concessions, there's

327
00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:38,920
Speaker 2: going to have to be measures, because Yvanis have leverage now.

328
00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:41,680
Speaker 2: They clearly have leverage now, and they're not going to

329
00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:43,480
Speaker 2: give it up easily or cheaply.

330
00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:47,440
Speaker 1: What do you make of these comments that David Sachs

331
00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:49,720
Speaker 1: just made. He is co host of the All In podcast.

332
00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:53,240
Speaker 1: More importantly, for this conversation, he is the White House's

333
00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:56,520
Speaker 1: cryptos are, and he was warning of a what he

334
00:16:56,560 --> 00:17:02,960
Speaker 1: described as a potentially catastrophic situation. He indicated that Iran

335
00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:07,240
Speaker 1: can basically destroy the economies of the GCC states and

336
00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:11,160
Speaker 1: inflicts significant damage on Israel as well, especially over time

337
00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:14,080
Speaker 1: as their defenses are worn down. And he also warned

338
00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:17,680
Speaker 1: of the possibility of Israel deploying a nuclear weapon, which

339
00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:20,040
Speaker 1: you know is extraordinary in and of itself, but also

340
00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:23,400
Speaker 1: for an administration official even to acknowledge that Israel has

341
00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:26,040
Speaker 1: nuclear weapons is extraordinary.

342
00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:26,320
Speaker 2: You know.

343
00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:28,200
Speaker 1: Is that a concern that you share with him?

344
00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:31,040
Speaker 2: I do absolutely, and now I've spoken to several people

345
00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:35,200
Speaker 2: in government or around government who share that concern, including

346
00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:36,919
Speaker 2: that it could be used by the United States. They

347
00:17:36,920 --> 00:17:40,320
Speaker 2: do believe, however, that the likelihood of the Israelis using

348
00:17:40,359 --> 00:17:42,680
Speaker 2: it is greater and faster in the sense that there's

349
00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:45,760
Speaker 2: still a lot of guardrails around the American side using

350
00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:48,400
Speaker 2: the nuclear weapons, but that in itself tells you how

351
00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:50,600
Speaker 2: bad this war is going. I think David did something

352
00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:53,760
Speaker 2: extremely courageous coming out and saying this, and he might

353
00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:55,880
Speaker 2: be in a unique position to be able to say

354
00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:58,400
Speaker 2: it because he can leave the administration costs free, more

355
00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:01,440
Speaker 2: or less. He doesn't look for a longer political career

356
00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:04,040
Speaker 2: or anything like that. But I think it's really reflective

357
00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:06,959
Speaker 2: of what actually has happened inside government throughout this period.

358
00:18:07,320 --> 00:18:10,800
Speaker 2: Trump was the driving force behind this war, with Netanyau

359
00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:14,840
Speaker 2: constantly whispering is his air Others were not excited about

360
00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:17,520
Speaker 2: this at all, but they were not pushing back in

361
00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:19,760
Speaker 2: the manner that they probably should have and could have.

362
00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:22,600
Speaker 2: Part of the reason why they didn't is because those

363
00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:25,199
Speaker 2: who did back in June are no longer at the

364
00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:27,840
Speaker 2: table and the cost was seen as very high for

365
00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:31,200
Speaker 2: having done so. So now the ones remaining were a

366
00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:33,400
Speaker 2: little bit more careful. What they did is like, well,

367
00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:36,480
Speaker 2: you probably need another aircraft carrier, actually throw in two

368
00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:38,399
Speaker 2: of them in there, and you need a couple more

369
00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:40,960
Speaker 2: weeks to amass more troops, all of these different things

370
00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:42,919
Speaker 2: to try to get it through to the guy, this

371
00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:46,560
Speaker 2: is a really bad idea, but the point never reached home.

372
00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:49,040
Speaker 1: Well, that's a very interesting insight and would sort of

373
00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:51,320
Speaker 1: square the circle of what jade Vance may have been

374
00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:53,879
Speaker 1: doing behind the scenes, because there was a leak that

375
00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:56,280
Speaker 1: he was pushing for a bigger attack, and of course

376
00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:58,680
Speaker 1: then his people lead and that it's scene as having

377
00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:01,119
Speaker 1: come from sort of the Suzi wild Marco Rubio camp.

378
00:19:01,320 --> 00:19:03,679
Speaker 1: Then there were league scenings come from his camp of no, no,

379
00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:06,240
Speaker 1: he was reluctant. Could have been that he was reluctant,

380
00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:08,439
Speaker 1: but the tactic that he used was saying, oh, you

381
00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:10,680
Speaker 1: need more. You know, we need to a bigger armada.

382
00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:12,080
Speaker 1: We got to rush more to the region.

383
00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:15,399
Speaker 2: This is a very common tactic. I mean, this is

384
00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:18,320
Speaker 2: actually a very common tactic used by the military because

385
00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:22,280
Speaker 2: the military hates it when politicians throw them in to

386
00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:26,440
Speaker 2: unthought through wars, knowing very well that politicians don't have

387
00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:30,080
Speaker 2: the political will power to stay in that fight. Military

388
00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:32,320
Speaker 2: hates to be thrown into wars that are not lost

389
00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:36,080
Speaker 2: militarily but are lost politically. So what they say is, look,

390
00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:37,440
Speaker 2: if you want to do this, you're going to need

391
00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:39,639
Speaker 2: x you know, ten times more of this, one hundred

392
00:19:39,680 --> 00:19:42,280
Speaker 2: times more of this, etc. Just to make it clear

393
00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:44,479
Speaker 2: to the politicians that this is not as easy as

394
00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:46,040
Speaker 2: you think it's going to be. And if you want

395
00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:47,399
Speaker 2: to go in this, this is going to be for

396
00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:49,240
Speaker 2: the long ord, it's going to be much more complicated.

397
00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:52,159
Speaker 2: Are you really ready to do it? That strategy, however,

398
00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:53,560
Speaker 2: it did not seem to work with Trump.

399
00:19:55,000 --> 00:20:00,520
Speaker 1: Lastly, we saw the Iranians warning citizens in the GCC states,

400
00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:05,080
Speaker 1: in particular in UAE, what do you think their next

401
00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:07,520
Speaker 1: move may be as they continue to try to turn

402
00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:10,119
Speaker 1: the screws on the US and whage you know, what

403
00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:13,000
Speaker 1: is already becoming a fairly successful economic war.

404
00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:15,399
Speaker 2: You know, when you take a look at the number

405
00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:19,000
Speaker 2: of attacks, the UAE actually has not been struck as

406
00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:22,480
Speaker 2: hard as for instance, Kuwait and Bahrain have been. So

407
00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:24,560
Speaker 2: this may just be one of the things that they're

408
00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:26,600
Speaker 2: doing is shifting a little bit of the focus over there.

409
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:28,879
Speaker 2: As I'm sure you may have reporters, well, the UE

410
00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:31,120
Speaker 2: is one of those countries that puts you in jail

411
00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:33,760
Speaker 2: if you are posting on social media about what actually

412
00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:36,080
Speaker 2: is happening in the country, or if you're putting out

413
00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:39,639
Speaker 2: videos of these attacks, these fires, et cetera. There's a

414
00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:42,880
Speaker 2: sixty year old British card that just was apprehended by

415
00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:45,840
Speaker 2: the UAE authorities for simply having posted something about this.

416
00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:50,240
Speaker 2: So I think, you know, the image of the UAE

417
00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:55,439
Speaker 2: suffering is in and of itself something that further puts

418
00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:59,480
Speaker 2: pressure on all countries and only global economy as a whole.

419
00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:02,720
Speaker 2: And I think again, the problem the US has here

420
00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:07,479
Speaker 2: is that the Iranians have a very very rich number

421
00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:11,359
Speaker 2: of targets throughout the region in different ways that they

422
00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:13,640
Speaker 2: can really put a squeeze on the global economy. It's

423
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:17,639
Speaker 2: not just through the Straits. And this again, this is

424
00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:19,520
Speaker 2: part of the reason why most of them did everything

425
00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:21,639
Speaker 2: they could to prevent this war from having started in

426
00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:24,640
Speaker 2: the first place. I have to say Trump has been

427
00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:27,120
Speaker 2: one of those presidents that, beyond many things that he's

428
00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:29,960
Speaker 2: done that I think is highly, highly problematic, he's been

429
00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:33,560
Speaker 2: very careful not to put himself in lose lose situations

430
00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:36,640
Speaker 2: on the international stage. This is the mother of all

431
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:39,879
Speaker 2: lose lose situations, and he put it himself there against

432
00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:42,040
Speaker 2: the advice of most of his advisors.

433
00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:45,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that is well said, doctor Parsi. Thank

434
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:46,560
Speaker 1: you for your insights. Has always appreciated.

435
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:47,600
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for having me,