1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:08,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Overarching all of this 2 00:00:08,520 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 1: is the trade narrative that we're watching so carefully. It 3 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: is reaching into every single one of these stories and 4 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:18,720 Speaker 1: having an impact upon it. UBS is absolutely no exception 5 00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:21,320 Speaker 1: this morning, the numbers dropping a little bit earlier on 6 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:25,239 Speaker 1: second quarter pre tax profit that has exceeded expectations. Net 7 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 1: income also beating up two point four at two point 8 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:31,680 Speaker 1: four billion dollars versus two point two billion the estimate there. 9 00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:34,239 Speaker 1: There's a bunch of technical factors in there relating to 10 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 1: the wind down of Credit SUITEE, also some provisioning there. 11 00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:40,920 Speaker 1: What is interesting though, is looking forward, what we're hearing 12 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:45,000 Speaker 1: is that actually, with some certainty, clients are starting to transact. 13 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:45,599 Speaker 2: A little bit more. 14 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:48,240 Speaker 1: And it was those earnings that Francine Laquar kicked off 15 00:00:48,360 --> 00:00:51,479 Speaker 1: in her conversation with Sergio and Mozzi a few minutes ago. 16 00:00:52,560 --> 00:00:56,480 Speaker 3: If I look at the overall profitability, particularly when looking 17 00:00:56,480 --> 00:00:59,760 Speaker 3: at the core underlying profits being up twenty five percent 18 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 3: or a year with wealth management businesses in in every 19 00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:10,959 Speaker 3: region growing on a PbD basis double digit, very strong, 20 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:15,119 Speaker 3: and uh I see good inflows in a in our 21 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:20,039 Speaker 3: alternative business in as management reaching three hundred billions. 22 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:21,880 Speaker 2: Of of assets in markets. 23 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 3: We delivered the second best quarter h on in in 24 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:27,720 Speaker 3: in the on the records. 25 00:01:27,800 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 2: So I think that UH. 26 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 3: Across the board in Switzerland we continue to be a 27 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:36,480 Speaker 3: strong partner to our clients, you know, with forty billions 28 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:38,520 Speaker 3: of UH credits or new credits. 29 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:42,839 Speaker 2: So across the board, making good progress on the integration. 30 00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 2: Big milestones was achieved. 31 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:48,640 Speaker 3: Four hundred thousand clients were migrated in Switzerland in a 32 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 3: smooth way, and we are now working on UH delivering 33 00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 3: the second wave in the in the in the in 34 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:58,320 Speaker 3: the third quarter UH and in non core and legacy 35 00:01:58,360 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 3: assets we are making good program and taking down cost 36 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:05,240 Speaker 3: and so I can very please so Eve. 37 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:08,240 Speaker 4: Even your head of expectations in terms of integration. 38 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 2: No, we are online. We are on track. 39 00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:12,960 Speaker 3: I mean the integration. I think the next We already 40 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:17,160 Speaker 3: achieved nine billions of cost savings out of the thirteen UH, 41 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 3: so we we believe back between now and your end, 42 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:21,840 Speaker 3: we're gonna achieve another billion or so, and then three 43 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 3: billions are gonna come in two thousand and twenty six 44 00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:29,120 Speaker 3: as we basically shut down all the legacy systems and 45 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:29,920 Speaker 3: and we. 46 00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 2: Also complete all the logistical migrations. 47 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:37,440 Speaker 4: The relationship between UBS and Switzerland l looks from the 48 00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:39,680 Speaker 4: outside to be a rock botty do you need Switzerland? 49 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:42,600 Speaker 3: I think that we have a very strong and solid 50 00:02:42,600 --> 00:02:47,080 Speaker 3: relationship with our clients and you know, the broader, the broaders. 51 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:46,799 Speaker 1: With. 52 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 3: Business community and and and and and client space. We 53 00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:55,119 Speaker 3: we serve more than two and a half billion clients, 54 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 3: probably even higher two hundred thousand SMEs, So we we 55 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 3: have a very solid and imbedded a relationship with the 56 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:07,359 Speaker 3: communities where we live and work in Switzerland. 57 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:09,359 Speaker 2: So I think that's you. 58 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:13,280 Speaker 3: Know, I will not really extrapolate some kind of issues 59 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 3: to the broader Swiss Switzerland. The vast majority of people 60 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:21,560 Speaker 3: recognize our value and we recognize the value Switzerland brings to. 61 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:24,480 Speaker 4: Us when you look at the market views. Of course, 62 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:26,239 Speaker 4: it's a big week for trade. I think we also 63 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 4: have GDP a little bit later in the U wants. 64 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:29,919 Speaker 4: But how do you see that going forward? 65 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:33,400 Speaker 3: Well, I mean the good use is then now we 66 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:38,400 Speaker 3: have probably a higher degree of predictability on what. 67 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:40,720 Speaker 2: The outcome of the start discussion will be. 68 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 3: If we land at around fifteen percent on average is 69 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 3: a base case scenario which in any case is something 70 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 3: that needs to be digested. 71 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:51,440 Speaker 2: This is six times higher than what we had at 72 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 2: the beginning of the year. This brings some kind of inflation. 73 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:57,800 Speaker 3: If you think from an exporter standpoint of view, if 74 00:03:57,800 --> 00:04:00,680 Speaker 3: you're a Swiss or you'll be an exporter, you are 75 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:03,360 Speaker 3: basically as seeing your clients in the US have to 76 00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 3: pay fifteen percent more because of tarists, plus another ten 77 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 3: to fifteen percent more because of effanks, and this is 78 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 3: a quite big change. So there remains to be seen 79 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 3: what's happening in Europe in terms of economic effect, but 80 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:22,400 Speaker 3: also what is the consequences for inflation in the US. 81 00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:23,679 Speaker 2: And this will then. 82 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:31,480 Speaker 3: Translate into potentially consequences for the monetary policies of central banks. 83 00:04:32,680 --> 00:04:34,839 Speaker 4: Our clients saying, look, they're also worried that this is 84 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:37,080 Speaker 4: not it for terror, so that they can always move back, 85 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:39,719 Speaker 4: So actually the uncertainty is remain. 86 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:41,279 Speaker 2: That's a fair point. 87 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:46,240 Speaker 3: I think that's what investors and clients, corporate and institutional 88 00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:48,320 Speaker 3: investor private investors. 89 00:04:47,920 --> 00:04:50,120 Speaker 2: Want to see is stability. 90 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 3: I mean, first of all, we need to reach agreements, 91 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 3: and then they need to see that there is a 92 00:04:55,680 --> 00:05:00,960 Speaker 3: degree of predictability and stability in disagreements. Uh, there is 93 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:04,520 Speaker 3: a degree of news fatigue, fatigue in the in the 94 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:07,360 Speaker 3: in the market, so people are wanting to be able 95 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:07,839 Speaker 3: to act with 96 00:05:07,920 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 1: Certainly a little bit of fatigue, certainly feeling that U 97 00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:16,240 Speaker 1: B S is CEO, of course, Sergio Motti in conversation 98 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 1: with Boomberg's Francis Laquas over in Zurich,