1 00:00:01,280 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 1: The Volume. All right, welcome to hoops tonight. You're at 2 00:00:17,079 --> 00:00:19,080 Speaker 1: the Volume Heavy Wednesday. Everybody. Oh, all of you guys 3 00:00:19,120 --> 00:00:22,040 Speaker 1: are having a great week. As promised. Today, we are 4 00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:26,800 Speaker 1: doing contender rankings throughout this entire season. We've done kind 5 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:29,040 Speaker 1: of rudimentary contender rankings. I really want to do a 6 00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:31,360 Speaker 1: deep dive as we divide these teams into the tiers 7 00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 1: that I think may make the most sense as we 8 00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:34,879 Speaker 1: head into the postseason. You guys know the joke. Before 9 00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:37,159 Speaker 1: we get started, subscribe to coops to YouTube channels. You 10 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:39,080 Speaker 1: don't miss any more of our videos. Make sure you 11 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:40,880 Speaker 1: like this video and sign up for post notifications. That 12 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:42,560 Speaker 1: helps us a lot the last minute. Least, if you 13 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:44,560 Speaker 1: want to get mailback questions into our mail bags, drop 14 00:00:44,600 --> 00:00:46,199 Speaker 1: them in our full episodes on YouTube and we'll get 15 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 1: to them on Fridays throughout the remainder of the season. 16 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 1: All right, let's talk some basketball also before we get started. 17 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 1: It's NCAA tournament time. The Volume and Hard Rock bet 18 00:00:57,160 --> 00:00:59,600 Speaker 1: are doing a bracket pool. I'm in it. I just 19 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:02,360 Speaker 1: filled that my bracket last night. A bunch of your 20 00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:04,560 Speaker 1: other favorite Volume guys are in it. And here's what 21 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:07,759 Speaker 1: you can win. The top score in this year's Bracket 22 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:10,040 Speaker 1: Challenge will win a two nights stay at the hard 23 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:14,160 Speaker 1: Rock Guitar Hotel in South Florida, round trip airfare, one 24 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:16,600 Speaker 1: thousand dollars in digital rewards and the hard Rock bet 25 00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 1: app and a shout out from your favorite Volume host. 26 00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:23,560 Speaker 1: So go to the bracket or bracket dot the Volume 27 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:25,760 Speaker 1: dot com to fill out your bracket. We'll have a 28 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 1: link in the description as well. Fill it out. You 29 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:30,200 Speaker 1: got until I think you have until Thursday, right, so 30 00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:31,880 Speaker 1: you got another day to fill it out. Make sure 31 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:33,160 Speaker 1: you click on that link and get a filled out 32 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:34,759 Speaker 1: so you guys can compete for a chance to win 33 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 1: those rewards. A right, let's talk some basketball. So again, 34 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:41,200 Speaker 1: I spend most of this season keeping our contenders in 35 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 1: just two tiers, top tier contenders and second tier contenders, 36 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:49,480 Speaker 1: essentially teams with a really good chance to win the 37 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:52,640 Speaker 1: title and teams with a chance but with a relatively 38 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 1: small chance compared to the teams that were in those 39 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 1: top tiers. Right, but in these last two sets, so 40 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 1: today and then we'll do something the week of the 41 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:03,720 Speaker 1: play in tournament. We might have a special guest for 42 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:06,360 Speaker 1: that as well. I will stand by I'll keep you 43 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:08,240 Speaker 1: guys posting on that, but we're gonna have two more 44 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:10,160 Speaker 1: sets of contender rankings for the end of the year. 45 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 1: I really wanted to get more refined in these last two, 46 00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:16,480 Speaker 1: so we're still just doing the top ten contenders in 47 00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:19,680 Speaker 1: the league, but now I have them split into five 48 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:24,240 Speaker 1: different tiers. So without any further ado, let's start with 49 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:27,920 Speaker 1: their first tier. I'm calling this tier by far the 50 00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 1: safest bet and there's one team in it, and that's 51 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:35,040 Speaker 1: the Oklahoma City Thunder. They're currently plus one thirty five 52 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:37,560 Speaker 1: to win the title on hard Rock Bet. Again, all 53 00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:40,080 Speaker 1: of our lines are provided by our partner, hard Rock Bet. 54 00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:43,960 Speaker 1: The issues that plagued the Thunder during their mid season 55 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 1: downturn feel like the distant past. They've won nine in 56 00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:49,440 Speaker 1: a row now and they've gone through an absolute gauntlet. 57 00:02:49,480 --> 00:02:51,600 Speaker 1: They beat Denver twice, they beat the Celtics, they beat 58 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:55,120 Speaker 1: the Timberwolves, they beat the Nickson Madison Square Garden. So 59 00:02:55,240 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 1: five of those nine teams have been against teams in 60 00:02:57,639 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 1: the top six on this list, and that win last 61 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:03,800 Speaker 1: night in Orlando was a very impressive one as well. 62 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:06,240 Speaker 1: Shake Killdess Alexander looks like he might just be the 63 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:08,520 Speaker 1: best player in the world right now. Shay has hit 64 00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:12,919 Speaker 1: a whopping ten clutch field goals in this nine game streak, 65 00:03:12,919 --> 00:03:16,239 Speaker 1: including five clutch threes, as the Thunder have gone six 66 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 1: and zero obviously in their clutch games during the nine 67 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:21,360 Speaker 1: game winning streak. They also have a completely different look 68 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:23,639 Speaker 1: than they had this time last year, even just a 69 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:26,080 Speaker 1: few months ago, which I think will give them more 70 00:03:26,160 --> 00:03:29,440 Speaker 1: versatility in the playoffs. And that is they're more shooting 71 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 1: based looks thanks to Jay will who's been shooting the 72 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:35,320 Speaker 1: absolute shit out of the ball from three. He's at 73 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:39,400 Speaker 1: forty six percent on six attempts per game over this 74 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:42,040 Speaker 1: nine game streak, and then Jared McCain, who's brought a 75 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:45,760 Speaker 1: dynamic movement shooting and kind of like a nail help 76 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:48,880 Speaker 1: beating spot up threat off the ball as well. I 77 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:52,880 Speaker 1: think this particularly matters for things like the San Antonio matchup. 78 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:56,640 Speaker 1: The San Antonio matchup has been problematic for the Thunder. 79 00:03:57,360 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 1: We would all be foolish to pretend as though that 80 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:02,840 Speaker 1: problem is just gone away. Okay, I personally have no 81 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:06,080 Speaker 1: idea what would happen there. The Spurs beat their ass 82 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:09,200 Speaker 1: over and over again. The Thunder did get one big 83 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:11,480 Speaker 1: win at home, but the last two times. The last 84 00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:14,040 Speaker 1: time these two teams played each other at relatively close 85 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:16,480 Speaker 1: to full strength was over two months ago, and I 86 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:20,040 Speaker 1: actually think both teams have gotten dramatically better since then. 87 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:23,159 Speaker 1: But does Thunder at least have an option now to 88 00:04:23,279 --> 00:04:26,560 Speaker 1: throw in that matchup that they didn't have in their 89 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 1: previous matchups. They could put more shooting on the floor. 90 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:34,200 Speaker 1: They have a much better shooting five than they've had 91 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:36,240 Speaker 1: at any phase over the course of the last few years. 92 00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:38,880 Speaker 1: Chet Holmgren also has been shooting the ball pretty well 93 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:42,560 Speaker 1: over the course of the last few months, and that 94 00:04:42,760 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 1: they could actually force Oklahoma's excuse me for san Antonio 95 00:04:45,880 --> 00:04:49,160 Speaker 1: and Wemby in particular to guard in space more than 96 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:51,760 Speaker 1: he did in some of their earlier matchups. The biggest 97 00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:54,320 Speaker 1: question mark right now for Oklahoma City is now Jadubb 98 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:58,200 Speaker 1: this recurring hamstring strain from hell. He's having very much 99 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:00,480 Speaker 1: that Aaron Gordon type of season that we seen out 100 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 1: in Denver, So we just don't know how explosive he'll 101 00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 1: be when he gets to the playoffs, or how in 102 00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:07,720 Speaker 1: rhythm he'll be with things like his jump shot. But 103 00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:10,440 Speaker 1: then the explosion of aj Mitchell has given them pretty 104 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:14,040 Speaker 1: good insurance on that concept, and he might even be 105 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:18,039 Speaker 1: better at puncturing the defense with drives than Jay dub 106 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 1: was in slow down half court environments. Jada obviously a 107 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:24,839 Speaker 1: very devastating rim attacker in transition and in semi transition, 108 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:27,800 Speaker 1: but against a set defense, his first step gives them 109 00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 1: the ability to puncture the defense. So I'm less worried 110 00:05:29,960 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 1: about that than I typically would be. They have the 111 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:36,839 Speaker 1: best defense, they might have the best player. They're incredibly 112 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:39,799 Speaker 1: deep with role player talent. I don't think they're unbeatable 113 00:05:39,839 --> 00:05:41,320 Speaker 1: or anything like that. Like I don't view this team 114 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 1: the way that I did the twenty seventeen Warriors, for example. 115 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:46,720 Speaker 1: But to put it very simply, if you had to 116 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:50,280 Speaker 1: bet your life savings with even odds on one team 117 00:05:50,320 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 1: to win the title, the Thunder are by far the 118 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:55,680 Speaker 1: safest bet, and so I'm putting them in a tier 119 00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:59,640 Speaker 1: of their own at this point. Now the next tier. 120 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 1: I'm calling this tier teams that meet the criteria and 121 00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:09,360 Speaker 1: might be the favorite in any non Oklahoma City season. 122 00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 1: These two teams check all the boxes you look for 123 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 1: when you're looking at top tier championship contenders, like a 124 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:20,480 Speaker 1: bona fide World beating top tier superstar I think there 125 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:23,080 Speaker 1: are four guys this season that have been able to 126 00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:27,760 Speaker 1: sustain play at that top tier superstar level, Shay Victor, 127 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 1: Wemin Yama, Nikola Jokic, and Luka Doncic. I think having 128 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:35,600 Speaker 1: one of those guys is basically a prerequisite to being 129 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:39,839 Speaker 1: a top tier championship contender, unless you have an overwhelmingwhelming 130 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 1: talent advantage compared to your opponents, like the twenty twenty 131 00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:46,440 Speaker 1: four Celtics did. I think you need to have a 132 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:50,000 Speaker 1: truly elite unit in a high enough ceiling on the 133 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:52,039 Speaker 1: other end of the floor to win four rounds, which 134 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:55,320 Speaker 1: both of these teams have. You need versatility for the 135 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:58,320 Speaker 1: different types of opponents you might face. You need athleticism, 136 00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:02,000 Speaker 1: shooting depth. These teams have all of those things. It's 137 00:07:02,040 --> 00:07:05,240 Speaker 1: just that Oklahoma City is the defending sixty eight win 138 00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 1: champ who looks even better than they were last year. So, 139 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 1: as I mentioned in the name of the tier, these 140 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:13,960 Speaker 1: two teams might be the favorite in any non Oklahoma 141 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 1: City season, but alas we are in an Oklahoma City season, 142 00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:21,840 Speaker 1: these two teams are the Spurs and the Nuggets. Actually 143 00:07:21,840 --> 00:07:24,440 Speaker 1: put the Spurs at number two in the Nuggets at 144 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:27,200 Speaker 1: number three. Now, to be clear, I don't view any 145 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:30,080 Speaker 1: significant difference between the two teams. I don't think the 146 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:33,000 Speaker 1: Spurs are definitively better than the Nuggets or vice versa. 147 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 1: I'm ranking the Spurs at two because of seeding. There 148 00:07:36,960 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 1: is a very good chance that San Antonio can avoid 149 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 1: Denver altogether and just play Oklahoma City, whereas it is 150 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:48,280 Speaker 1: a near certainty that Denver will have to play both 151 00:07:48,280 --> 00:07:52,000 Speaker 1: of them. Why because if the Lakers beat Houston tonight, 152 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:54,720 Speaker 1: which I believe they will but we'll see, the Lakers 153 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:58,119 Speaker 1: will effectively have a three game lead on the entire 154 00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:01,760 Speaker 1: middle tier of the Western Conference thanks to them having 155 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:04,880 Speaker 1: the tie breaker against Denver, Minnesota, and Houston if they 156 00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:08,520 Speaker 1: win tonight, So it's not out of the cards for 157 00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:11,160 Speaker 1: Denver to go on a streak and somehow pass the 158 00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 1: Lakers in the standings. Denver has a much easier schedule 159 00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 1: down the stretch. The Lakers are about to go on 160 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 1: this road trip where they play Miami on the road, 161 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:21,040 Speaker 1: Orlando on the road, Detroit on the road, and they 162 00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:23,680 Speaker 1: have a couple of Oklahoma City matchups that aren't quite 163 00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:26,040 Speaker 1: at the end of the year, Whereas Denver has a 164 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:27,880 Speaker 1: couple of games with the Spurs and Thunder that are 165 00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:30,880 Speaker 1: literally their last couple of games, so like those games 166 00:08:30,960 --> 00:08:33,400 Speaker 1: might involve some resting, So it's not out of the 167 00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 1: cards for Denver to go on a run and get 168 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 1: all the way up to the three seed. But it's 169 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:40,959 Speaker 1: a three game lead, which is a lot. If the 170 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:43,360 Speaker 1: Lakers win tonight, a three game lead is a lot 171 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 1: with fourteen games left. So to give you an idea, 172 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:49,400 Speaker 1: let's say the Lakers go nine to five. The Nuggets 173 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:51,920 Speaker 1: would have to go twelve and two down the stretch 174 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 1: to pass the Lakers and get the three seeds. So again, 175 00:08:55,320 --> 00:08:57,080 Speaker 1: if the Lakers win tonight, and that's why that game 176 00:08:57,160 --> 00:09:00,680 Speaker 1: is so important. If the Lakers win tonight, Denver will 177 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 1: almost certainly be a four or a five seed. If 178 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:06,960 Speaker 1: they're a four or five seed, they would potentially have 179 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:11,360 Speaker 1: to face Minnesota in the first round, Oklahoma City in 180 00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:14,640 Speaker 1: the second round, and San Antonio in the third round. 181 00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:18,720 Speaker 1: Right whereas San Antonio could play a seven seat somebody 182 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:22,080 Speaker 1: like Phoenix, for example, or a Clippers team that traded 183 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:25,319 Speaker 1: away a couple of their best players at the deadline, 184 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 1: and then have to play one of those flawed teams 185 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:30,040 Speaker 1: someone like the Lakers, someone like the Rocket, someone like 186 00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:32,640 Speaker 1: the Timberwolves, and then just have to play the winner 187 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 1: of Denver versus Oklahoma City. So that caused me to 188 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:39,000 Speaker 1: put the Spurs at number two, even though I don't 189 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:43,079 Speaker 1: necessarily think they're better than Denver. As you guys know, 190 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 1: I've been playing basketball my entire life, and it's safe 191 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:48,240 Speaker 1: to say my energy and recovery isn't the same as 192 00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:50,800 Speaker 1: it was ten years ago to fifteen years ago when 193 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:53,680 Speaker 1: I was playing in college. And I've always wondered about 194 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 1: what supplements could benefit me as I try to keep 195 00:09:56,840 --> 00:10:00,200 Speaker 1: my basketball playing days going for as long as possible. Well, 196 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 1: that sounds familiar to you. Check out mars Men. 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The Spurs right 214 00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:01,760 Speaker 1: now are plus six fifty to win the title on 215 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:03,520 Speaker 1: hard Rock bet as I have them at number two. 216 00:11:03,880 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 1: This team has been on a month's long ass kicking spree. 217 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:09,040 Speaker 1: They've lost two games total since the beginning of February. 218 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:11,600 Speaker 1: They're nineteen and two in that span. Best record in 219 00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:14,480 Speaker 1: the league, number one offense in the league, number four 220 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:17,320 Speaker 1: defense in the league, number five rebounding team in the league. 221 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:20,040 Speaker 1: In that span, Wenby is looking like a legitimate candidate 222 00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:21,360 Speaker 1: for best player in the world. No one's going to 223 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:24,040 Speaker 1: give him that credit until he does something in the postseason, 224 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:26,400 Speaker 1: and that's how it should be. But he's certainly playing 225 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:29,160 Speaker 1: at that level right now. He's been shooting the shit 226 00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:31,640 Speaker 1: out of the basketball for weeks now, which has dramatically 227 00:11:31,720 --> 00:11:34,880 Speaker 1: increased his scoring volume. In his last eight games, he's 228 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:38,280 Speaker 1: averaging twenty seven points and eleven rebounds on outrageous efficiency 229 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:42,800 Speaker 1: with over five stocks per game. And I can't actually 230 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:47,720 Speaker 1: overstate his defensive impact. It's what allows the Spurs to 231 00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 1: not need to play some of those hyper athletic forwards 232 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:54,160 Speaker 1: that help you anchor the defense or anchor your rebounding, 233 00:11:54,520 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 1: but that can't score, or that are generally limited as shooters. Instead, 234 00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:01,800 Speaker 1: they can play a jump shooter at the four, someone 235 00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:04,200 Speaker 1: like a Julian Champenni or a Harrison Barnes, and then 236 00:12:04,240 --> 00:12:06,320 Speaker 1: they can play a bunch of guards at the one 237 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:10,600 Speaker 1: through three. That gives the Spurs a deadly combination of 238 00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:14,600 Speaker 1: a top tier defense and this super fast and skilled 239 00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:18,240 Speaker 1: offensive lineup basically at all times when Wenby's on the floor. 240 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:21,440 Speaker 1: It's what allowed them to be the best offense in 241 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:24,160 Speaker 1: the league over the last couple of months. And as 242 00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:26,480 Speaker 1: I as I've said and broken down many times over 243 00:12:26,480 --> 00:12:29,240 Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks, I'm less worried about the 244 00:12:29,280 --> 00:12:33,079 Speaker 1: spurs youth than some other young teams in NBA history, 245 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:36,319 Speaker 1: because so much of their success comes from sheer game 246 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:41,480 Speaker 1: breaking talent like Wenby's defense, rather than from experienced ball handling, 247 00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:44,280 Speaker 1: which is usually where things fall apart for young teams. 248 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:46,960 Speaker 1: That's not to say I'm zero percent worried. Like as 249 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:49,880 Speaker 1: we've discussed, I have concerns about guys like Steph Castle 250 00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:53,040 Speaker 1: going cold from three in the postseason. Devin Vessel even 251 00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:56,040 Speaker 1: just because he hasn't been in that environment before Wemby, 252 00:12:56,120 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 1: if he goes cold from three, that could be a 253 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 1: big drop off for their offense. Think they'll see some 254 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:03,400 Speaker 1: really passive game plan, some game plans that are designed 255 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:06,680 Speaker 1: to force their most streaky or their worst shooters to shoot. 256 00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:09,480 Speaker 1: But overall, if you ask me right now, hey Jason, 257 00:13:09,480 --> 00:13:12,160 Speaker 1: Oklahoma City doesn't win the title this year, who do 258 00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:14,719 Speaker 1: you think is most likely to win it? I'd lean 259 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 1: slightly towards San Antonio because they have the inside track 260 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:19,960 Speaker 1: in terms of their level of competition relative to a 261 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:23,880 Speaker 1: team like Denver. Number three the Denver Nuggets plus seven 262 00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:25,840 Speaker 1: hundred right now to win the title on hard Rock Bet. 263 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:29,559 Speaker 1: It's been a super weird season. They've been decimated by injuries. 264 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:32,600 Speaker 1: They're below five hundred in clutch games, which is straight 265 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:35,000 Speaker 1: up bizarre. That's caused a lot of the national media, 266 00:13:35,360 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 1: in my opinion, to kind of dramatically underrate this team. 267 00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 1: But I still think they check all of the boxes 268 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:43,960 Speaker 1: of a top tier championship contender. They have a top 269 00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:47,360 Speaker 1: tier superstar in Jokic, they have a truly elite unit 270 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:49,800 Speaker 1: in their offense. They've been the best overall offense and 271 00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:51,280 Speaker 1: they're the only team in the league right now with 272 00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:53,600 Speaker 1: an offensive rating over one twenty. And they have the 273 00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 1: best half court offense in the NBA, thanks not only 274 00:13:55,679 --> 00:13:58,240 Speaker 1: to Jokic but also Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon both 275 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 1: being the best versions of themselves offensively that they've ever been, 276 00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:04,400 Speaker 1: and they have a depth of jump shooting talent. They've 277 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:07,160 Speaker 1: been a bottom ten defense this year overall, but most 278 00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:08,560 Speaker 1: of it has to do with the fact that their 279 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:11,600 Speaker 1: forwards have been injured most of the year. Their starting 280 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:14,400 Speaker 1: lineup in four hundred and fifty possessions this year not 281 00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:17,280 Speaker 1: only has a one to twenty six offensive rating, but 282 00:14:17,360 --> 00:14:19,760 Speaker 1: as a defensive rating of one zho six, which is 283 00:14:19,800 --> 00:14:21,920 Speaker 1: really good. So when they've been healthy and they have 284 00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:24,240 Speaker 1: Cam Johnson and they have Christian Brown, they have Aaron Gordon. 285 00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:28,240 Speaker 1: They've been very good defensively, so I'm not as worried 286 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 1: about their defense relative to what they've statistically done this 287 00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:34,080 Speaker 1: year on defense, and especially relative to how good they 288 00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:37,800 Speaker 1: are on offense. Again, they are murdering teams with their start. 289 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:39,680 Speaker 1: Like how many times you see a starting lineup with 290 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:42,480 Speaker 1: a plus twenty net rating. That's what the Denver Nuggets 291 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:45,400 Speaker 1: starting lineup is doing. They're a very good rebounding team. 292 00:14:45,640 --> 00:14:48,600 Speaker 1: They have a shit ton of playoff experience. They just 293 00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:52,520 Speaker 1: check all of the boxes. My only real concern about 294 00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:56,640 Speaker 1: Denver relative to previous seasons is their perimeter defense versus 295 00:14:56,800 --> 00:15:00,120 Speaker 1: quick guards. I think they're really well set up for 296 00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:02,800 Speaker 1: big ball handlers because of all the guys like Spencer 297 00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:06,200 Speaker 1: Jones and Christian Brown does really well against bigger forwards. 298 00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 1: Aaron Gordon is an option in that respect. Cam Johnson 299 00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 1: can do some of that, Peyton Watson can do some 300 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:14,280 Speaker 1: of that. So they're well equipped for the Luca types, 301 00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:17,440 Speaker 1: Lebron Kawhi, Kevin Durant, Julius Randall, some of the bigger 302 00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:20,880 Speaker 1: ball handlers that you'd see in the Western Conference, but 303 00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:23,040 Speaker 1: they are not very well set up to handle super 304 00:15:23,120 --> 00:15:26,920 Speaker 1: quick guards, which is what San Antonio and Oklahoma City 305 00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:30,280 Speaker 1: bring to the table. In Oklahoma City in particular, they're 306 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:34,240 Speaker 1: not as vulnerable to the gimmicky defense stuff that Denver 307 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:36,360 Speaker 1: was able to pull off against them in the playoffs 308 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:39,280 Speaker 1: last year. That has shown up in their matchups with 309 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:41,840 Speaker 1: Oklahoma City this year. Oklahoma City has looked way more 310 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:45,000 Speaker 1: comfortable on offense this year against Denver than they have 311 00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 1: in their previous matchups. The bottom line is, once again, 312 00:15:49,040 --> 00:15:53,640 Speaker 1: Denver checks all the boxes, but this cursed season has 313 00:15:53,720 --> 00:15:57,360 Speaker 1: given them not only a historically great Oklahoma City team 314 00:15:57,400 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 1: standing in their way, but a brutal playoff pass thanks 315 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:03,720 Speaker 1: to the injuries. Like I would argue the most likely 316 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 1: scenario right now because Houston is falling apart and will 317 00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:09,120 Speaker 1: most likely end up at the sixth seed, and because 318 00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:11,280 Speaker 1: the Lakers, if they win tonight, have the inside track 319 00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:14,520 Speaker 1: on the three seed, they will their most likely playoff 320 00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 1: path at this point is Minnesota in the first round, 321 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:19,480 Speaker 1: who has always given them issues and has literally beaten 322 00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:22,320 Speaker 1: them in the playoffs before. Then Oklahoma City in round 323 00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:25,040 Speaker 1: two just beat them last year, and then San Antonio 324 00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:27,640 Speaker 1: in round three before whoever they have in the finals. 325 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:32,440 Speaker 1: So this kind of brutal injury played season has just 326 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:34,720 Speaker 1: put them in a very difficult position in terms of 327 00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:37,640 Speaker 1: the level of competition they'll face in every round of 328 00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:39,200 Speaker 1: the postseason, which is why I have them down at 329 00:16:39,280 --> 00:16:43,960 Speaker 1: number three our third tier. These are teams that have 330 00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 1: a championship ceiling, but they have potential fatal flaws. I 331 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 1: have three teams in this tier, the Celtics, the Timberwolves, 332 00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:56,320 Speaker 1: in the Knicks, and they all share a similar set 333 00:16:56,320 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 1: of circumstances. None of these three teams have a top 334 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 1: tier two star. Jalen Brown is very good, as I've 335 00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:07,199 Speaker 1: had a fantastic season. Jason Tatum looks surprisingly good for 336 00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:09,359 Speaker 1: a guy who's coming off of an achilles tear. But 337 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:11,800 Speaker 1: there's a pretty big gap between those two guys and 338 00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 1: the four names I mentioned earlier. Anthony Edwards is ascending, 339 00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 1: but he still feels like he's a year or two 340 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:20,639 Speaker 1: away from really figuring things out and maturing as a 341 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:24,160 Speaker 1: basketball player, especially against some of the more complex puzzles 342 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:27,160 Speaker 1: you can run into in the postseason. And Jalen Brunson 343 00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:29,560 Speaker 1: is a guy who on any given night can reach 344 00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 1: the level of a top tier superstar, but his lack 345 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:34,120 Speaker 1: of size and athleticism have made him way too inconsistent 346 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:37,720 Speaker 1: to sustain that level. Like in December, it looked like 347 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:40,159 Speaker 1: he might be ascending, but then he started to go 348 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:42,760 Speaker 1: down from there. So I think all three of these 349 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:46,320 Speaker 1: teams would be at a significant disadvantage in any matchup 350 00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:49,119 Speaker 1: against a team that has one of that Yokic she 351 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:53,800 Speaker 1: wenby Luca tier. They each also have a potentially fatal 352 00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:58,760 Speaker 1: flaw separate from their star level talent. One the Celtics, 353 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:03,760 Speaker 1: they're big, can only run deep drop coverage that makes 354 00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:07,479 Speaker 1: them super vulnerable to certain types of players like bigs 355 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:09,760 Speaker 1: that can pick and pop. We've talked about this before. 356 00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:13,399 Speaker 1: Deep drop coverage is extremely vulnerable to pick and pop 357 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:15,480 Speaker 1: because if the guard is going to chase over the 358 00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 1: top and the big is waiting back, then the screener pops, 359 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:23,359 Speaker 1: it's essentially going to be wide open every single time. 360 00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:25,520 Speaker 1: By the way this has shown up in the numbers, 361 00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:28,080 Speaker 1: the Celtics have been the worst team in the league 362 00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:31,719 Speaker 1: this year against picking and popping. They are the only 363 00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:34,240 Speaker 1: team in the NBA this season that is conceding at 364 00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:36,680 Speaker 1: least two pick and pop threes per game this year 365 00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:39,879 Speaker 1: and allowing them to shoot at least forty percent on 366 00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:45,600 Speaker 1: those pick and pop threes. They're also vulnerable to really 367 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:49,399 Speaker 1: high level drop coverage beating guards like the types of 368 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:53,680 Speaker 1: guards that are all over the Eastern Conference. That specific 369 00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:57,040 Speaker 1: lack of defensive versatility is something that has shown up, 370 00:18:57,240 --> 00:19:00,400 Speaker 1: especially in the higher profile games for the Celtics this year. 371 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,639 Speaker 1: The Celtics are just six and thirteen this year against 372 00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:05,600 Speaker 1: teams that are in the top ten in point differential. 373 00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:09,960 Speaker 1: They have a one to nineteen defensive rating in those matchups, 374 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:13,840 Speaker 1: so teams that are actually equipped to attack their defense 375 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:18,320 Speaker 1: have had great success there. Jason Tatum will give them 376 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:21,320 Speaker 1: more flexibility to try to protect their centers in action, 377 00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 1: but it will be harder and harder to do as 378 00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 1: the level of competition increases. And again, none of their 379 00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:29,879 Speaker 1: centers are as good defensively as like Al Horford was, 380 00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:34,360 Speaker 1: or even Christaps porzingis when he was healthy. The Timberwolves 381 00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:38,360 Speaker 1: have a profound ability to go absolutely brain dead on offense, 382 00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:43,439 Speaker 1: especially against teams that can switch and that load up 383 00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:46,760 Speaker 1: on the strong side, zone up on the backside, and 384 00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:50,439 Speaker 1: rotate well. We've seen several examples of that throughout this season, 385 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:53,480 Speaker 1: even in their very successful playoff runs. In the last 386 00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:57,240 Speaker 1: two years, it's been their offense running into some kind 387 00:19:57,280 --> 00:20:00,280 Speaker 1: of puzzle they can't solve that has gotten them beat 388 00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:03,600 Speaker 1: And then with the Knicks, they just have these two 389 00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:07,320 Speaker 1: gaping entry points into their defense in the form of 390 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:10,200 Speaker 1: Karl Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson. To be clear, it's 391 00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:13,200 Speaker 1: not all bad. All three of these teams have really 392 00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:16,399 Speaker 1: strong metrics. The Wolves in the Knicks are both top 393 00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:19,840 Speaker 1: five and win percentage against the top ten point differential teams. 394 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 1: A lot of really big wins for those two guys. 395 00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:24,680 Speaker 1: The Celtics have been bad there, but they also do 396 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:27,560 Speaker 1: have some signature wins mixed in and as I said, 397 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:30,240 Speaker 1: each of these teams does have a real championship ceiling. 398 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:35,320 Speaker 1: I could see Minnesota mauling everybody on defense and their 399 00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:38,880 Speaker 1: depth of big athletic ball handlers carrying them to the trophy. 400 00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 1: I know a lot of people under eight Minnesota because 401 00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:43,320 Speaker 1: they have had some really ugly stretches this year. But 402 00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:47,320 Speaker 1: Minnesota has literally been the worst nightly effort team out 403 00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:50,040 Speaker 1: of any of these ten teams. So like on any 404 00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:52,280 Speaker 1: given night, you could watch them and think they're literally garbage. 405 00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:54,840 Speaker 1: But that was the same problem last year, and then 406 00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 1: there they were in the conference finals. So like, I 407 00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:00,600 Speaker 1: could see Minnesota, even though they've been having such a 408 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 1: rough year, ratcheting it up the intensity, physically mauling everyone 409 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:07,200 Speaker 1: on defense, and they just got all these big athletic 410 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:09,639 Speaker 1: ball handlers that can get to their spots whenever they want. 411 00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:12,479 Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised if they won the trophy, and 412 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:16,160 Speaker 1: I know that ceiling exists in there. The Celtics won 413 00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:18,679 Speaker 1: the title two years ago, so we'd be foolish to 414 00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:21,119 Speaker 1: think that they can't win it this year. And the 415 00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:24,360 Speaker 1: Knicks have arguably been the most impressive Eastern Conference team 416 00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:27,520 Speaker 1: this year when you combine win percentage and their quality 417 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:30,679 Speaker 1: of opponents, which means they can definitely win the East. 418 00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:33,360 Speaker 1: And anything can happen when you get to the finals, 419 00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:37,160 Speaker 1: so they certainly can win it. But again, the reason 420 00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:40,560 Speaker 1: why I have those teams below that Oklahoma City, San Antonio, 421 00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:44,399 Speaker 1: Denver group is because they lack top tier superstar talent, 422 00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:48,760 Speaker 1: and each of those teams has a significant flaw. Boston's 423 00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:51,600 Speaker 1: inability to run anything other than drop coverage with their bigs, 424 00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:56,760 Speaker 1: Minnesota's offense completely falling apart against certain types of schemes, 425 00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:59,240 Speaker 1: and the Knicks just have a couple of guys that 426 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:01,879 Speaker 1: you can put in action NonStop and get great shots 427 00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:05,600 Speaker 1: basically whenever you want. I put the Celtics at number four. 428 00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:08,360 Speaker 1: They're currently plus five point fifty to win the title 429 00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:10,960 Speaker 1: on hard rock bet. I ended up giving the Celtics 430 00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:14,239 Speaker 1: an edge here for a couple of reasons. One, the 431 00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:18,159 Speaker 1: Tatum and Brown combo gives them the best duo in 432 00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:20,760 Speaker 1: this tier by far, so like in a group of 433 00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:25,440 Speaker 1: flawed star talent, they have the best star talent. Two, 434 00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:29,280 Speaker 1: they've won the championship before and have an overwhelming experience 435 00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:33,280 Speaker 1: advantage versus the rest of the Eastern Conference. And three, 436 00:22:33,440 --> 00:22:35,159 Speaker 1: I think Joe Mazzula might be the best coach in 437 00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:40,000 Speaker 1: the NBA, So I put them at number four. Timberwolves 438 00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:42,399 Speaker 1: at number five, currently plus four thousand to win the 439 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:45,120 Speaker 1: title again, crazy long shot odds. I know I'm higher 440 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:47,600 Speaker 1: on the Timberwolves in most but it's because they have 441 00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:50,199 Speaker 1: given us so much bad data this year with these Knights, 442 00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:52,400 Speaker 1: where they just come out and they don't play hard. 443 00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:54,200 Speaker 1: I was talking with my buddy piz As, who covers 444 00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:56,480 Speaker 1: the Lakers, and you know, him and I were talking 445 00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:59,560 Speaker 1: about the difference between them and the Lakers, and Pete 446 00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 1: made a really point. He was like, he was like 447 00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:04,480 Speaker 1: us Laker fans have been so frustrated watching the Lakers 448 00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:07,520 Speaker 1: at various points this season. Can you imagine being a 449 00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:11,600 Speaker 1: Timberwolves fan? Can you imagine being a Timberwolves fan? And 450 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:14,719 Speaker 1: these dudes just straight up don't care to compete on 451 00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:17,679 Speaker 1: a lot of nights in the regular season. They have 452 00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:21,679 Speaker 1: to be a deeply frustrating team to watch during the 453 00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:24,920 Speaker 1: eighty two The Timberwolves do have a couple of things 454 00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:29,160 Speaker 1: going in their favor. Anthony Edwards' ceiling is every bit 455 00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:31,600 Speaker 1: as high as the top tier superstars. Like when Ant 456 00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:36,159 Speaker 1: has his pull up three going, he's basically unguardable. And 457 00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:38,159 Speaker 1: they match up pretty well against the top teams in 458 00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:40,520 Speaker 1: the West. The Timberwolves have won five games this year 459 00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:43,800 Speaker 1: against the Thunder, the Spurs, and the Nuggets. Why because 460 00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:46,560 Speaker 1: they have the defensive talent to match up with those teams, 461 00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:49,920 Speaker 1: and their athletes on offense are really difficult to keep 462 00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:52,199 Speaker 1: from getting to their spots when they're actually locked in 463 00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:55,120 Speaker 1: and playing hard. I just put them below Boston because 464 00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:57,720 Speaker 1: I think they might have the lowest floor of these 465 00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:01,240 Speaker 1: top six teams. Like I would be atterbsolutely stunned if 466 00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:05,040 Speaker 1: Boston lost a first round series. I actually think they're 467 00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:08,840 Speaker 1: pretty likely to make it to the conference finals, but 468 00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:11,800 Speaker 1: I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Minnesota lost 469 00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:15,159 Speaker 1: in round one and they were firing their coach and 470 00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:19,480 Speaker 1: making dramatic roster changes this summer so they're low floor. 471 00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:22,600 Speaker 1: Put them at number five for me. Today's show is 472 00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,800 Speaker 1: brought to you right presenting sponsor hard Rock Bet, Florida's sportsbook. 473 00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:27,679 Speaker 1: It's turny time and my favorite thing to do this 474 00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:30,160 Speaker 1: time of year is fill out my bracket. 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In 502 00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:42,280 Speaker 1: all other states. Must be twenty one plus and physically 503 00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:46,600 Speaker 1: president in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, 504 00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:50,120 Speaker 1: or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about 505 00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:53,159 Speaker 1: gambling in Florida, call one eight three to three play wise. 506 00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:54,879 Speaker 1: In Indiana. If you or someone you know as a 507 00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,159 Speaker 1: gambling problem and wants help, call one eight hundred and 508 00:25:57,320 --> 00:26:00,520 Speaker 1: nine with it. In Ohio, call one eight hundred my 509 00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:05,800 Speaker 1: reset gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler In Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, 510 00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:11,600 Speaker 1: New Jersey, Tennessee, or Virginia. The Knicks are at number 511 00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:13,920 Speaker 1: six currently plus sixteen hundred to win the title on 512 00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:17,480 Speaker 1: Hard Rock Bet. The Knicks have extremely strong metrics and 513 00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:21,240 Speaker 1: a very impressive list of wins this year. They have 514 00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:25,320 Speaker 1: a lot of playoff experience. In general, the vibes around 515 00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:27,440 Speaker 1: the team are night and day better than they were 516 00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:31,320 Speaker 1: last year. I'm just completely scarred by what I've seen 517 00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:34,000 Speaker 1: in recent postseason runs from them in terms of the 518 00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:39,760 Speaker 1: flaws that we repeatedly see get exposed, and frankly, they 519 00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:42,600 Speaker 1: just haven't been addressed, not because they haven't tried, just 520 00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:47,639 Speaker 1: because they're fundamental flaws in roster construction. But still I 521 00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:49,560 Speaker 1: have them here at number six. I feel better about 522 00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:51,200 Speaker 1: their chances this year than I did in any of 523 00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:54,520 Speaker 1: the other Jalen Brunson years. I know Knicks fans want 524 00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:57,159 Speaker 1: this really bad. Madison Square Garden is going to be 525 00:26:57,200 --> 00:27:00,760 Speaker 1: on fire in the postseason, seeing that they can cause 526 00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:02,280 Speaker 1: problems for the Celtics, like I think they would have 527 00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:04,720 Speaker 1: beat Boston last year even if Jason Tatum didn't get hurt. 528 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:07,960 Speaker 1: And I do have a drop off from here. I 529 00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:10,320 Speaker 1: think there are six teams with like a real shot 530 00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:12,040 Speaker 1: in The Knicks are one of them, so it's a 531 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,639 Speaker 1: far cry from previous seasons. I just had them at 532 00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:19,360 Speaker 1: the bottom of this particular tier, our fourth tier. I'm 533 00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:24,399 Speaker 1: calling this tier hardest to predict. These are the three 534 00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:26,960 Speaker 1: teams that when I was making this list this morning, 535 00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:30,480 Speaker 1: I had the hardest time placing, for a variety of reasons. 536 00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,560 Speaker 1: Two of these teams I simply just need to see 537 00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:37,760 Speaker 1: more before I can decide where they land. And one 538 00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:40,720 Speaker 1: of these teams has the largest gap between what they 539 00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:44,480 Speaker 1: look like on paper as a playoff team in what 540 00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:46,800 Speaker 1: they've looked like in this regular season in terms of 541 00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:50,639 Speaker 1: what they've accomplished. These three teams are the Lakers, the Cavs, 542 00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:54,760 Speaker 1: and the Pistons. The Lakers are hard to predict because 543 00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:59,320 Speaker 1: they literally just started taking their season seriously. It's funny 544 00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:01,560 Speaker 1: because I've received multiple comments in the last week or 545 00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:03,960 Speaker 1: so saying things like, why didn't the Lakers make a 546 00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:06,520 Speaker 1: trade at the deadline to maximize this window? And I 547 00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:10,680 Speaker 1: just don't see it that way. In order to justify 548 00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:15,760 Speaker 1: that level of aggression, the Lakers needed to demonstrate that 549 00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:19,520 Speaker 1: they were a contender before the deadline, and they just 550 00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:23,639 Speaker 1: did not. And I know they had injury issues, mainly Austin. 551 00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,560 Speaker 1: We've seen just how different this Lakers team is when 552 00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:28,840 Speaker 1: Austin's healthy and rhythm versus when he's hurt or out 553 00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:34,480 Speaker 1: of rhythm. But even if you take that injury context 554 00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:38,040 Speaker 1: into the equation, they weren't even trying to be a 555 00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:41,440 Speaker 1: good defensive team for the entire season before the All 556 00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:46,040 Speaker 1: Star break. They weren't even trying to generate margin on 557 00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:48,920 Speaker 1: most nights against good teams. Even against some good teams 558 00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:51,160 Speaker 1: that had injuries of their own that they were dealing with, 559 00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:53,640 Speaker 1: the Lakers just rolled over and got their ass beat. 560 00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:58,120 Speaker 1: So like had they even with the injuries, if they 561 00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:01,600 Speaker 1: had looked this dedicated to being the best version of 562 00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:07,200 Speaker 1: themselves in January, then yeah, you probably get a Lakers 563 00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,600 Speaker 1: team that puts a first round pick on the table 564 00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:12,200 Speaker 1: and makes a move for someone like a Nick Claxton 565 00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:16,440 Speaker 1: or goes after someone like an Io Dissumuho, tries to 566 00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:21,200 Speaker 1: do something to pump this particular season's chances up. But 567 00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:24,880 Speaker 1: that's not what happened. After the All Star break, after 568 00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,479 Speaker 1: the deadline, they finally looked in the mirror and they 569 00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:29,080 Speaker 1: were like, let's see what we can do, And so 570 00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:32,800 Speaker 1: I don't blame Rob Polinka for not getting super aggressive 571 00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:36,440 Speaker 1: at this particular deadline. Over these last few weeks, though, 572 00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:40,400 Speaker 1: the Lakers have become a dead serious team. After having 573 00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:43,240 Speaker 1: a thirteen game stretch against teams with a sixty plus 574 00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:46,240 Speaker 1: percent winning percentage where they went one to twelve and 575 00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:48,600 Speaker 1: got blown out in most of them, they've won four 576 00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:51,800 Speaker 1: in a row and they've looked like a dead serious 577 00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:55,360 Speaker 1: team trying to compete for a title. But doing it 578 00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,680 Speaker 1: for two weeks is not the same as sustaining it 579 00:29:57,720 --> 00:29:59,840 Speaker 1: the way you need to for two months in the playoffs. 580 00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:02,640 Speaker 1: So to put it very simply, I don't feel comfortable 581 00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:06,080 Speaker 1: putting them over any of these teams that I have 582 00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:09,960 Speaker 1: above them unless they can sustain this throughout the next month, 583 00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:13,400 Speaker 1: especially on this upcoming tough road trip. Obviously they have 584 00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:16,120 Speaker 1: the big Houston Rockets game tonight, but they have a 585 00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:20,800 Speaker 1: road game against Detroit coming up, a road game against 586 00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:23,720 Speaker 1: Miami coming up. They have a lot of tough games 587 00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:26,840 Speaker 1: on the horizon where we'll get to see more of 588 00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:30,800 Speaker 1: this potential from them. I do think they have the 589 00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:34,920 Speaker 1: potential to join that Boston, Minnesota, New York tier again. 590 00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:37,560 Speaker 1: They just blew up, blew out the Timberwolves and the 591 00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:41,360 Speaker 1: Knicks in this recent stretch. They're starting to check a 592 00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,800 Speaker 1: lot of boxes like they have a top tier superstar 593 00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:46,720 Speaker 1: that is peaking right now in Luca. He's been every 594 00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:49,560 Speaker 1: bit as good as Jokic, Shay and Wemby. Since the 595 00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:53,280 Speaker 1: All Star Break, they have a truly elite offense thanks 596 00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:55,640 Speaker 1: to Luca, thanks to the return to form of Austin 597 00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:58,760 Speaker 1: Reeves dramatically improved three point shooting post also break, the 598 00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:00,920 Speaker 1: Lakers have been the third best three point percentage team 599 00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:04,200 Speaker 1: in the NBA, and they have figured out how to 600 00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:09,120 Speaker 1: be at least a slightly above average defense how aggressive coverages, 601 00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:13,280 Speaker 1: namely putting two on the ball more than ever, and 602 00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:18,160 Speaker 1: then behind that zoning up quality communication and rotations on 603 00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:21,000 Speaker 1: the back end repeatedly in the last few weeks. They 604 00:31:21,040 --> 00:31:24,760 Speaker 1: gave Jalen Brunson a nightmare game. They gave Anthony Edwards 605 00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:27,760 Speaker 1: a nightmare game. They turned to kol Jokic over nine 606 00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:30,560 Speaker 1: times in a single game. They gave Jamal Murray a 607 00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:33,040 Speaker 1: nightmare game. They just played Kevin durant In and maybe 608 00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:35,560 Speaker 1: the most embarrassing half of basketball in his entire career. 609 00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:39,280 Speaker 1: So they are doubling the star, zoning up, and rotating 610 00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:41,400 Speaker 1: on the backside, and it's working. It's been their best 611 00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:45,080 Speaker 1: stretch of defense this season. And lastly, they're dominating the 612 00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:48,320 Speaker 1: margins now, which they were not doing early in the year. 613 00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:50,600 Speaker 1: They're winning the second chance points battle, they're winning the 614 00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:53,400 Speaker 1: fast break points battle, they're dominating the points off a 615 00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:58,160 Speaker 1: turnovers battle. So yeah, if they can sustain, I think 616 00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:00,719 Speaker 1: they're in that third tier with the Celtics, Will and Knicks. 617 00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:03,600 Speaker 1: But we've got to see more before we give that 618 00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:06,040 Speaker 1: credit to them. That's what I'll be looking at in 619 00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:08,720 Speaker 1: this next month. That's why I'm saying they're hard to predict. 620 00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:11,320 Speaker 1: I need to see more than just two weeks of 621 00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:13,960 Speaker 1: good basketball before I say, oh, the Lakers are a 622 00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:16,400 Speaker 1: third tier contender or whatever or whatever it is that 623 00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:19,200 Speaker 1: we decide to put them. I am shocked though they 624 00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:20,719 Speaker 1: have the six best record in the league right now, 625 00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:22,760 Speaker 1: with the inside track on the West three seed and 626 00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:26,240 Speaker 1: the racking up quality wins, It's like a crazy reversal 627 00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:29,760 Speaker 1: of fortunes. I can't believe it. The Calves have looked 628 00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:34,520 Speaker 1: extremely mediocre since the James Harden trade, but Jared Allen 629 00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:36,560 Speaker 1: has missed most of that stretch with his bum knee. 630 00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:40,600 Speaker 1: The core four. When James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, 631 00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:42,680 Speaker 1: and Jared Allen have been on the floor together, they've 632 00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:46,000 Speaker 1: been awesome plus thirty seven net rating, but thanks to 633 00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:48,880 Speaker 1: the Jared Allen injury, they've only played seventy six possessions, 634 00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:53,080 Speaker 1: which is an almost non existent sample size. So to 635 00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:56,840 Speaker 1: put it very simply, I can't really evaluate the Cavs 636 00:32:56,880 --> 00:32:59,480 Speaker 1: as a team until I see them get a few 637 00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:02,640 Speaker 1: weeks win with Jared Allen in the lineup, which is 638 00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:04,160 Speaker 1: what I need to see over the course of the 639 00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:08,120 Speaker 1: next month. Now, without Jared Allen on the floor, they've 640 00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:12,200 Speaker 1: just been getting absolutely wrecked on defense. The Donovan, Mitchell, 641 00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:15,520 Speaker 1: James Hard and Evelyn Mobley a trio without Jared Allen 642 00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:19,040 Speaker 1: has a one to twenty five defensive ratings so far, 643 00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:24,520 Speaker 1: They're too small, They're nowhere near physical enough. It ain't 644 00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:29,320 Speaker 1: gonna work without Jared Allen. So the Caves, similar to 645 00:33:29,320 --> 00:33:31,000 Speaker 1: what I said with the Lakers, are in wait and 646 00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:34,920 Speaker 1: see territory for me. They have a much lighter schedule 647 00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:36,400 Speaker 1: over the tail end of the season, which will make 648 00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:38,680 Speaker 1: it harder to evaluate, but there are a couple of 649 00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:41,120 Speaker 1: big games in there, including a matchup with the Lakers, 650 00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:44,160 Speaker 1: so hopefully we get a decent sized data set from 651 00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:47,600 Speaker 1: them before we get to April. But they are very 652 00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:49,840 Speaker 1: much in that wait and see territory for me, just 653 00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:54,520 Speaker 1: like the Lakers are, and the Pistons are the actual 654 00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:57,920 Speaker 1: definition of the type of team that everyone thinks the 655 00:33:57,920 --> 00:33:59,600 Speaker 1: Spurs are, and what I mean by that is like 656 00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:01,960 Speaker 1: a team that looks like a contender in the metrics, 657 00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:06,400 Speaker 1: but they're almost certainly overachieving thanks to just their nightly, 658 00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:10,960 Speaker 1: youthful exuberans. All sorts of strong metrics for Detroit seventh 659 00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:16,040 Speaker 1: in offense, second defensive rating, third in rebounding, best record 660 00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:17,400 Speaker 1: in the league against teams in the top ten, and 661 00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:19,800 Speaker 1: point differential. They're fourteen and six this year, best in 662 00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:23,399 Speaker 1: the league, so they've arguably been the second or third 663 00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:25,879 Speaker 1: most impressive regular season team this year. I'd put him 664 00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:31,000 Speaker 1: second behind San Antonio because Oklahoma City has just dropped 665 00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:33,160 Speaker 1: a lot of games against good teams, injuries played a 666 00:34:33,200 --> 00:34:34,960 Speaker 1: role there, and because they got their butt kicked by 667 00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:38,160 Speaker 1: the Spurs. So the Pistons have been the second best 668 00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:42,719 Speaker 1: regular season team this year. But they do actually fall 669 00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:46,440 Speaker 1: in lockstep with the types of young teams that have 670 00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:50,480 Speaker 1: historically struggled in the postseason. I was thinking about it 671 00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:53,719 Speaker 1: a lot this morning. This year's Pistons team reminds me 672 00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:57,320 Speaker 1: of a lesser version of the two thousand and nine Calves. 673 00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:03,040 Speaker 1: They're dominating in the regular season. They're led by a 674 00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:06,799 Speaker 1: rising star, obviously not Lebron James, but Kid Cunningham is 675 00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:13,279 Speaker 1: an ascending, amazing young player, elite on defense, very physical. 676 00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:17,360 Speaker 1: They do have some experienced vets mixed in, they're just 677 00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:21,440 Speaker 1: in much smaller roles. But just like that CAS team, 678 00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:25,280 Speaker 1: they're almost certainly going to run into a well rounded 679 00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:29,360 Speaker 1: veteran contender that can neutralize some of the things that 680 00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:31,960 Speaker 1: they succeeded with in the regular season, specifically their ability 681 00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:34,640 Speaker 1: to win on the margins, turn them into a half 682 00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:38,040 Speaker 1: court team where suddenly it looks like they're young. Star 683 00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:42,480 Speaker 1: is the only guy who can really do anything, And 684 00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:45,600 Speaker 1: even two thousand and nine Lebron wasn't able to push 685 00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:49,359 Speaker 1: them over the top. Twenty twenty six Kid, I think 686 00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:52,279 Speaker 1: is obviously a far lesser version of that. I just 687 00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:54,160 Speaker 1: don't think he's going to be able to superman his 688 00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:57,520 Speaker 1: team across the finish line. So I say they're hard 689 00:35:57,520 --> 00:36:00,200 Speaker 1: to predict because when you look at how they've won 690 00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:03,239 Speaker 1: in the regular season, they've won on the margins. They've 691 00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:06,319 Speaker 1: won with defense, they've won with offensive rebounding, they've won 692 00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:10,879 Speaker 1: with defense to transition like points off of turnovers. Their 693 00:36:10,920 --> 00:36:13,640 Speaker 1: ability to win in the playoffs is going to be 694 00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:18,200 Speaker 1: determined by how much can they get the mount of 695 00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:20,440 Speaker 1: their ability to win on the margins in the regular 696 00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:26,440 Speaker 1: season to translate to the postseason. If they can dominate 697 00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:29,040 Speaker 1: the same way in the postseason on the margins that 698 00:36:29,080 --> 00:36:31,080 Speaker 1: they did in the regular season, they got a really 699 00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:36,839 Speaker 1: good chance. But if really good quality playoff teams can 700 00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:40,200 Speaker 1: keep them off the offensive glass, take care of the basketball, 701 00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:43,439 Speaker 1: keep them out of transition, find little ways to poke, 702 00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:45,759 Speaker 1: and product their defense. So they can't dominate the game 703 00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:48,800 Speaker 1: on defense, then it's going to be a huge problem. 704 00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:52,480 Speaker 1: I'd look at it like a spectrum. Here's how dominant 705 00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:55,600 Speaker 1: they were in the regular season on the margins. Here's 706 00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:57,799 Speaker 1: if they don't dominate on the margins at all and 707 00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:01,400 Speaker 1: they become purely a half courteam. They're hard to predict 708 00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:05,480 Speaker 1: because we don't know where they will land on that spectrum, 709 00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:09,160 Speaker 1: and that will ultimately determine their destiny. I don't expect 710 00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:11,200 Speaker 1: them at all to go into the postseason and be 711 00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:14,920 Speaker 1: a dominant half court team, So how they win in 712 00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:18,520 Speaker 1: the postseason will almost entirely come down to can they 713 00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:21,279 Speaker 1: win on the margins in the postseason? I think they 714 00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:24,480 Speaker 1: will to a certain extent, but what extent that is 715 00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:27,280 Speaker 1: is going to determine their fortunes. I put the Lakers 716 00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:29,680 Speaker 1: at number seven currently plus five thousand to win the 717 00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:31,680 Speaker 1: title on a hard rock bet. Why are they above 718 00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:34,000 Speaker 1: the other two teams? Very simply, they have a top 719 00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:39,040 Speaker 1: tier superstar. They have the best unit out of any 720 00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:42,720 Speaker 1: of these teams. The Lakers offense, particularly their half court offense, 721 00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:45,440 Speaker 1: is the best unit out of the Lakers, Cavs, and Pistons. 722 00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:47,840 Speaker 1: Thanks to the fact that they have Luka Doncic, a 723 00:37:47,840 --> 00:37:50,600 Speaker 1: top tier superstar, Austin Reeves, a guy you can book 724 00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:53,600 Speaker 1: for twenty five a night, super super efficiently, and Lebron 725 00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:56,400 Speaker 1: James third best three point shooting team since the deadline. 726 00:37:56,760 --> 00:38:01,520 Speaker 1: They are the most well rounded offense of They have 727 00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:03,399 Speaker 1: the best unit out of any team in this tier, 728 00:38:03,920 --> 00:38:06,120 Speaker 1: the Calves that put at number eight. They're currently plus 729 00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:08,120 Speaker 1: twelve hundred to win the title on hard rock bet. 730 00:38:08,360 --> 00:38:11,160 Speaker 1: I put them above Detroit because when they are healthy, 731 00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:13,400 Speaker 1: I think they are a more well rounded team. I 732 00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:15,839 Speaker 1: think they have better overall shot creation. They have better 733 00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:18,719 Speaker 1: off ball finishing, both in three point shooting and in 734 00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:22,360 Speaker 1: roll man finishing. But they also have really good perimeter defense, 735 00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:25,640 Speaker 1: especially for guards rim protection. When Evan Mobley and Jared 736 00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:28,440 Speaker 1: Allen are healthy. They are the most well rounded team 737 00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:32,560 Speaker 1: when they are healthy, compared to a team like the Pistons. 738 00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:35,360 Speaker 1: The Pistons I have at number nine, currently plus seventeen 739 00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:37,560 Speaker 1: fifty to win the title. They're the youngest and most 740 00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:39,719 Speaker 1: flawed of any of these teams. That's why I put 741 00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:43,640 Speaker 1: them third in that tier. My last tier, my fifth 742 00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:46,920 Speaker 1: tier of our top ten championship contenders, I'm calling this 743 00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:51,120 Speaker 1: tier the sore thumb because in this list of ten, 744 00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:57,200 Speaker 1: the Rockets stick out like a sore thumb. Currently plus 745 00:38:57,280 --> 00:38:59,160 Speaker 1: four thousand to win the title on hard Rock Bet. 746 00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:02,920 Speaker 1: They have all the metrics right top ten in offense, 747 00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:06,080 Speaker 1: top ten in defense, They're the best rebounding team in 748 00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:09,040 Speaker 1: the league. They do have some really big wins this season, 749 00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:11,520 Speaker 1: especially early. They've been terrible against good teams in the 750 00:39:11,600 --> 00:39:13,399 Speaker 1: last couple of months, but they do have some big 751 00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:16,720 Speaker 1: wins early in the season. But they are just profoundly 752 00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:19,439 Speaker 1: flawed on both ends of the floor to have any 753 00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:22,960 Speaker 1: shot to win multiple playoff rounds, as we saw last 754 00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:25,440 Speaker 1: night when they go or two nights ago. When they 755 00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:28,320 Speaker 1: don't have Shangoon, they can reach a certain level defensively, 756 00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:31,600 Speaker 1: but they have nowhere near the amount of aggregate ball 757 00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:34,400 Speaker 1: handling and shooting and decision making on the floor to 758 00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:38,640 Speaker 1: even allow them to succeed even when Kevin Durant's drawing 759 00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:42,280 Speaker 1: double teams thirty five feet from the basket. Kevin Durant 760 00:39:42,280 --> 00:39:44,960 Speaker 1: deserves blame for that for the poor managing of double teams. 761 00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:47,800 Speaker 1: The other guys deserve blame for not having the ability 762 00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:51,239 Speaker 1: to consistently convert four on threes. It's everyone's fault. I 763 00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:53,960 Speaker 1: would put a mea Udoka into blame there as well, 764 00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:57,359 Speaker 1: like repeatedly just walking Kevin Durant across half court instead of, 765 00:39:57,400 --> 00:39:59,399 Speaker 1: like I don't know, trying to drive as much pace 766 00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:01,719 Speaker 1: as possible. Having Kevin Durant function more as a play 767 00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:04,680 Speaker 1: finisher in that group, doing something different than just walking 768 00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:06,560 Speaker 1: into the same trap over and over and over again. 769 00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:10,160 Speaker 1: Or Shane Gouon can come out there where their offense 770 00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:14,439 Speaker 1: only gets marginally better. They still have trouble handling double 771 00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:17,560 Speaker 1: teams in that situation, and Shane gun is a big 772 00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:21,239 Speaker 1: target as a drop coverage big and has been the 773 00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:23,920 Speaker 1: primary culprit for most of their defensive issues this season. 774 00:40:24,719 --> 00:40:27,160 Speaker 1: May or may not be playing hurt as well. There's 775 00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:30,560 Speaker 1: a lot of different contexts there, but the best version 776 00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:33,440 Speaker 1: of the team when they're healthy, has major defensive questions 777 00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:36,879 Speaker 1: and major offensive questions. They stick out like a sore 778 00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:39,919 Speaker 1: thump in this group of ten, which has really shown 779 00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:42,640 Speaker 1: up in their matchups against the higher profile teams in 780 00:40:42,640 --> 00:40:45,560 Speaker 1: the last few weeks. All right, guys, that's all I 781 00:40:45,560 --> 00:40:47,959 Speaker 1: have for today is always I sincerely appreciate you guys 782 00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:50,799 Speaker 1: for supporting us and supporting the show. We'll be back 783 00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:54,240 Speaker 1: tomorrow with some more game reaction, namely that huge showdown 784 00:40:54,239 --> 00:40:57,720 Speaker 1: between the Rockets and Lakers which has massive seating, massive 785 00:40:58,000 --> 00:41:01,000 Speaker 1: seating implications in the Western Conference. We'll hit it some 786 00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:03,799 Speaker 1: other games as well tomorrow morning. I'll see you guys 787 00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:04,160 Speaker 1: there