1 00:00:01,520 --> 00:00:04,920 Speaker 1: Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Rooks Studios. This is Bloomberg 2 00:00:05,000 --> 00:00:08,000 Speaker 1: day Break for Monday, March twenty seventh. Coming up today, 3 00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:11,360 Speaker 1: Silicon Valley Bank is sold. We are live with the 4 00:00:11,440 --> 00:00:14,720 Speaker 1: latest details. The chairman of Saudi National Bank resigns on 5 00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:18,160 Speaker 1: the heels of a controversial interview with Bloomberg. A top 6 00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:21,560 Speaker 1: FETE official says banking strains are bringing the US closer 7 00:00:21,600 --> 00:00:25,160 Speaker 1: to recession, and Twitter suffers a leak of its proprietary 8 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:28,760 Speaker 1: source code. Israel's consul general of New York has resigned 9 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:31,400 Speaker 1: as protests continued. It's going to treat plus, a new 10 00:00:31,520 --> 00:00:34,879 Speaker 1: dangerous drug has New York authorities concerned. I'm Michael laugh 11 00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:38,440 Speaker 1: Or Ahead, I've done Stashdaward, Sports, the Nets, Bloth in Orlando, 12 00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:41,959 Speaker 1: San Diego State and Miami advanced to the Ncuba Bay 13 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:46,280 Speaker 1: Final four. That's all straight Ahead on Bloomberg day Break, 14 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:49,199 Speaker 1: The business news you need, disturn your day, and just 15 00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 1: one fifteen minute podcast each pointing on Apples, Spotify, the 16 00:00:53,640 --> 00:01:00,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app and everywhere you get your podcasts. Good morning, 17 00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:03,280 Speaker 1: I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Cameron Moscow. Here are the 18 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 1: stories we're following today. We begin the day with major 19 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:09,280 Speaker 1: news in the banking industry. Let's start here in the US, 20 00:01:09,360 --> 00:01:12,160 Speaker 1: where we have a deal to buy Silicon Valley Bank. 21 00:01:12,400 --> 00:01:15,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's John Tucker joins us live with the very latest. 22 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:18,840 Speaker 1: Good morning, John and Nathan. The buyer is First Citizens, 23 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:21,720 Speaker 1: based in North Carolina. So what do they get One 24 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:25,839 Speaker 1: nineteen billion dollars of deposits in all of Silicon Valley 25 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:29,479 Speaker 1: Banks outstanding loans, and that comes at something of a bargain, 26 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:33,640 Speaker 1: seventy two billion dollars of assets from SVB at sixteen 27 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:38,240 Speaker 1: billion dollars below their value. Starting this morning, all depositors 28 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:41,960 Speaker 1: of SVB and the seventeen branches they ran will operate 29 00:01:42,080 --> 00:01:45,760 Speaker 1: under the First Citizens banner. Svb's failure is going to 30 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:49,920 Speaker 1: likely cost the FDIC about twenty billion dollars. A Silicon 31 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 1: Valley Bank unraveled in less than forty eight hours, becoming 32 00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:56,560 Speaker 1: the biggest US bank to fail in more than a decade. 33 00:01:56,840 --> 00:01:59,800 Speaker 1: Live to New York on John Tucker Bloomberg Daybreak. All right, John, 34 00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 1: Thanks well. Regional banks are rallying in the pre market 35 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 1: after that news on SVB, shares a first Republic leading 36 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 1: the way. They're up more than twenty six percent. Sentiment 37 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:12,400 Speaker 1: appears to be improving after a report on Friday that 38 00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 1: US authorities are considering more support for banks. Well. Another 39 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:19,359 Speaker 1: developing story of following this morning, Karen Is oversees a 40 00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:23,600 Speaker 1: Marl Kadery, the chairman of Saudi National Bank, has resigned. 41 00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:27,320 Speaker 1: That bank is the largest shareholder in credit suites. Kadary's 42 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 1: resignation follows a Bloomberg interview two weeks ago when our 43 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 1: use of kamal Ldan asked Kadery if he would offer 44 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:37,080 Speaker 1: more support for credit suite I'm wondering whether you would 45 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 1: be open to assisting further if there was another call 46 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:44,760 Speaker 1: for additional liquidity from credit suites. The answer is absolutely not, 47 00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:49,920 Speaker 1: for many reasons outside the simplest reason, which is regulate theory. 48 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:53,920 Speaker 1: Again stature. We now own nine point eight percent of 49 00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:56,160 Speaker 1: the bank. If we go above ten percent, four kinds 50 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:58,800 Speaker 1: of new rules kick in. Now. That was the chairman 51 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:01,720 Speaker 1: of Saudi National Banks. With Bloomberg's use of kamal Ldan 52 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:05,800 Speaker 1: two weeks ago. A credit sweet stock plunged following those comments. 53 00:03:05,840 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 1: They eventually reached a level where the lender required a 54 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:11,519 Speaker 1: takeover by UBS. Well, back here in the US, Nathan 55 00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:14,720 Speaker 1: markets are focused on the banking sector and the risk 56 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:18,440 Speaker 1: from FED policy. Minneapolis Fed President Neil cash Carry warns 57 00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:21,800 Speaker 1: that recent bank turmoil has increased the risk of her session. 58 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:24,560 Speaker 1: At the same time, he tells CBS it's too soon 59 00:03:24,800 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 1: to judge what it means for monetary policy. The positive 60 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:32,160 Speaker 1: sign is deposit outflows seem to have slowed down, some 61 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 1: confidences being restored among smaller and regional banks. At the 62 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:39,440 Speaker 1: same time, we've seen the capital markets have largely been 63 00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 1: closed for the past two weeks. If those capital markets 64 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 1: remain closed because borrowers and lenders remain nervous, then that 65 00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 1: would tell me, Okay, this is probably gonna have a 66 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 1: bigger input on the economy and Minneapolis Fed President Neil 67 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 1: cash Carry may the comments unface the nation from CBS 68 00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 1: heard every Sunday on Bloomberg Radio. Meantime, Karen former Treasury 69 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 1: Secretary Larry Summers as he's hoping for more government support 70 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:05,280 Speaker 1: for banks. He wants US regulators to back uninsured deposits 71 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 1: at any banks that fail in the next year. Summers 72 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 1: says it's a move that could help build confidence in 73 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 1: the sector if we can provide near term assurance with 74 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 1: respect to deposits and medium term assurance, with respect to 75 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:29,680 Speaker 1: the appropriateness of regulation that affords the best prospect of 76 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:34,120 Speaker 1: moving through this crisis in an effective way. Former Treasury 77 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:37,279 Speaker 1: Secretary Larry Summers made those comments on Bloomberg's Wall Street 78 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:39,680 Speaker 1: Week with David Weston. You can catch the program every 79 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:43,040 Speaker 1: Friday at six pm Eastern, or download the show wherever 80 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:45,919 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts. Well. Nathan Morgan Stanley says the 81 00:04:45,960 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 1: banking turmoil could show up in earnings. CHIEFUS strategist Mike 82 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:52,120 Speaker 1: Wilson says earnings guidance is too high in the way 83 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:54,960 Speaker 1: of the banking crisis, and that's putting stocks at risk 84 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:58,640 Speaker 1: for sharp declines. Stay tuned for more with Mike Wilson. 85 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:01,840 Speaker 1: He joins Tom John and Lisa on Bloomberg Surveillance, coming 86 00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:04,640 Speaker 1: up at seven am Eastern. In Corporate News this Morning, 87 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:07,560 Speaker 1: Karen Twitter has had a leak. The company says part 88 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:11,320 Speaker 1: of its proprietary source code was published online last week. 89 00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Steve Rappaport joins US Live with the latest. Steve, 90 00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 1: Good morning, Nathan and Karen. A free speech enthusiast is 91 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:20,599 Speaker 1: at the center of this digital who'd done it? Twitter? 92 00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:22,640 Speaker 1: Says that's the name of an account that published the 93 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:25,800 Speaker 1: information on Microsoft's GitHub, which is known for housing open 94 00:05:25,839 --> 00:05:29,159 Speaker 1: source code. Gethub complied with Twitter's request to remove the data. 95 00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 1: The platform in a court filing, also wants the identity 96 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:34,320 Speaker 1: of the person behind the account, as well as the 97 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:37,240 Speaker 1: names and other personal information of anyone who shared or 98 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:40,119 Speaker 1: downloaded the coding data. The New York Times reports Twitter 99 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:42,840 Speaker 1: has launched an internal investigation. Live in New York, I'm 100 00:05:42,880 --> 00:05:46,240 Speaker 1: Steve Rappaport Bloomberg Daybreak. Thanks Steve, turning to politics now. 101 00:05:46,320 --> 00:05:48,880 Speaker 1: Last week came and went with no indication or indictment 102 00:05:48,960 --> 00:05:51,960 Speaker 1: rather of Donald Trump, and now the former president's prediction 103 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:54,479 Speaker 1: of violence from its potential arrest is drawing a strong 104 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 1: response from former prosecutors. Bloomberg's and Baxter has the story. 105 00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 1: A group of more than one hundred and seventy five 106 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:03,760 Speaker 1: former federal prosecutors has released an open letter denouncing Donald 107 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:07,920 Speaker 1: Trump's in Cindi area attacks on Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg. 108 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:11,640 Speaker 1: Trump is, among other things, predicted death and destruction if 109 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:15,800 Speaker 1: he's indicted. The group says Trump is inciting violence. The 110 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 1: group says Trump's statements are meant to intimidate Bragg and 111 00:06:19,120 --> 00:06:22,760 Speaker 1: that a democracy cannot fight crime and criminals if that 112 00:06:22,880 --> 00:06:26,520 Speaker 1: activity is allowed to happen. In San Francisco. I'm at 113 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 1: Baxter Bloomberg Daybreak. Thanks Ed straight Ahead, your latest local headlines, 114 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:38,400 Speaker 1: and a check of sports. This is Bloomberg. It's forty 115 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:40,640 Speaker 1: seven degrees in New York. He should have some rain 116 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:42,919 Speaker 1: by this afternoon. We'll go to near fifty five. Some 117 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:45,240 Speaker 1: of that rain could be mixed with what snowflakes north 118 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:46,880 Speaker 1: and west of the city tonight as we head down 119 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:48,800 Speaker 1: to near forty. Time now to look at some of 120 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 1: the other stories making news in New York and around 121 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 1: the world with Bloomberg's Michael bar Good morning, Michael, Good morning. Nathan, 122 00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:58,599 Speaker 1: Israel's consul general in New York, has resigned. Soft Zamir 123 00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:02,119 Speaker 1: says the political situation in Israel has reached a critical point, 124 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:04,839 Speaker 1: but says his resignation as a move to fight for 125 00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:11,080 Speaker 1: Israeli people and its future. In Tel Aviv, tens of 126 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:13,720 Speaker 1: thousands of Israelis took to the streets early to the 127 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:16,560 Speaker 1: day after Prime Minister Benjamin net and Yahoo fired his 128 00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:19,960 Speaker 1: defense minister, who had spoken out against the government's judicial 129 00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:24,520 Speaker 1: overhaul plan. Federal and state officials yesterday toured the devastation 130 00:07:24,600 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 1: from Friday's ea Ford tornado in the town of Rolling Fork, Mississippi. 131 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 1: President Biden As signed an emergency disaster declaration for the area, 132 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 1: bringing additional resources from FEMA and other agencies to the state. 133 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:40,760 Speaker 1: At least twenty five people were killed and thousands are 134 00:07:40,800 --> 00:07:45,600 Speaker 1: likely displaced following the storm. FEMA administrator Dian Chriswall what 135 00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 1: this major Disaster Declaration does is it ensures that we 136 00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:52,360 Speaker 1: can bring in the right resources now to help start 137 00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:56,320 Speaker 1: the recovery process and support any of the ongoing response 138 00:07:56,360 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 1: actions that may be needed in these communities. Chris Bells 139 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:02,400 Speaker 1: says the FEMA aide will help the residence of the 140 00:08:02,440 --> 00:08:07,360 Speaker 1: horror to hit Sharky, Humphreys, Cairol, and Monroe Counties. The 141 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:11,000 Speaker 1: NYPD says officers shot an emotionally disturbed man in the Bronx. 142 00:08:11,280 --> 00:08:14,800 Speaker 1: It happened yesterday inside a building on Grand Concourse, where 143 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:17,240 Speaker 1: Rule de la Cruz's father called nine to one to 144 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:20,920 Speaker 1: one and told dispatches his son was having a medical episode. 145 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 1: Police say the forty two year old man came at 146 00:08:23,520 --> 00:08:25,960 Speaker 1: them with a knife. De la Cruz was taken to 147 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:29,120 Speaker 1: a local hospital and is in critical condition. There are 148 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:33,120 Speaker 1: warnings about a dangerous new street drug. It's a legal 149 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:37,680 Speaker 1: animal tranquilizer also called trunk, coming into the country through 150 00:08:37,760 --> 00:08:43,079 Speaker 1: China and Mexico. Unlike in opioid, narcon does not reverse 151 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:46,440 Speaker 1: its effects. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is calling on 152 00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:49,760 Speaker 1: the DA to send a diversion controlled team to the 153 00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 1: New York City area to stop its sale and distribution. 154 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:58,320 Speaker 1: Zila zine. It's a deadly, skin rotting zombie drug that 155 00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 1: evil drug dealers are now mixing with fentanyl, with heroin, 156 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:07,840 Speaker 1: and with other drugs. Schumer says the drugs already caused 157 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 1: death and overdoses in upstate New York. Global News twenty 158 00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:13,960 Speaker 1: four hours a day, powered by more than twenty seven 159 00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:17,480 Speaker 1: hundred journalist an analyst in over one hundred twenty countries. 160 00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:20,360 Speaker 1: How Michael Barr, this is Bloomberg, Nathan. Thank you, Michael. 161 00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:26,920 Speaker 1: Time now for our Bloomberg Sports update, and for that 162 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:29,640 Speaker 1: we bring in John stash Our hes Nathan. The NCAA 163 00:09:29,720 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 1: tournament has gone from sixty eight teams down to the 164 00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:36,400 Speaker 1: final four. There are no one, two or three seeds remaining. 165 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 1: There's a four, two, fives, and a nine. Three of 166 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:41,120 Speaker 1: the teams get into Houston, who will be in their 167 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:44,360 Speaker 1: first Final four. That's unprecedented. San Diego State with a 168 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:46,720 Speaker 1: one point whatever creating the aspects one on a free 169 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:50,120 Speaker 1: throw with one second left, will now take on Florida Atlantic. 170 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:52,760 Speaker 1: Miami then came from thirteen down on the second half 171 00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:56,080 Speaker 1: to nap off Texas. The Hurricanes will meet Yukon. The 172 00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:57,720 Speaker 1: Husky is the only one of the final four that 173 00:09:57,760 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 1: has a history of being their nets lost at Orlando 174 00:10:00,679 --> 00:10:03,040 Speaker 1: one nineteen one oh six. The Knicks are back home 175 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:07,000 Speaker 1: tonight to play Houston match Play Golf. They anticipated final 176 00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:10,280 Speaker 1: was Rory McElroy against Scottie Scheffler, except both lost in 177 00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:12,960 Speaker 1: the semifinals and matches. They went to a playoff, so 178 00:10:13,480 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 1: they did play, but in the consolation match McElroy one. 179 00:10:16,440 --> 00:10:18,960 Speaker 1: The final was won easily by Sam Byrne six and 180 00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:22,360 Speaker 1: five over Cameron Young. Yankees beat the Blue Jays. Johnny 181 00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:25,079 Speaker 1: Brito pitched into the sixth then he did not allow 182 00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 1: a hit. Looks like he's going to be the fifth 183 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 1: starter due to all the injuries in the rotation. The 184 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:32,640 Speaker 1: Yankees opening days shortstop Thursday in the Bronx will be 185 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 1: rookie Anthony Volpe. Here's how Aaron Brune broke the news 186 00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 1: to the twenty one year old. Yeah, we talked about 187 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:41,679 Speaker 1: the start of this piano competition and and he killed him. 188 00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:44,040 Speaker 1: But at the end of the day he got twenty 189 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:48,000 Speaker 1: seven games, a triple A. There's always room for development, 190 00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:51,240 Speaker 1: but at the end, I think that development should happen 191 00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:55,200 Speaker 1: in the big leagues. Welcome to New York. Ropey will 192 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:57,880 Speaker 1: be an Opening Day Yankee shortstop at the same age 193 00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:01,679 Speaker 1: Derek Jeter was in nineteen six John Saw. We're Bloomberg 194 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:07,280 Speaker 1: Sports Live from coast to coast, from New York to 195 00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:12,120 Speaker 1: San Francisco, Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Sirius XAM, 196 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:15,840 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. This is 197 00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:20,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hagar on the morning 198 00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:23,360 Speaker 1: where we're watching bank stocks move higher following the deal 199 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:27,680 Speaker 1: for first citizens to buy Silicon Valley banks assets after 200 00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 1: a couple of weeks that have really shaken confidence in 201 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:35,200 Speaker 1: the US banking system. Joining us Live now is Dennis Gartman, 202 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:38,640 Speaker 1: chairman of the University of Akron Endowment Investment Committee and 203 00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:42,160 Speaker 1: the former publisher of the Gartment letter Dennis, Good morning. 204 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:45,400 Speaker 1: Will this purchase by First Citizens helped to restore confidence 205 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:48,360 Speaker 1: in the system. There's no question that that's what's happening 206 00:11:48,360 --> 00:11:52,719 Speaker 1: this morning. There there's a lesser amount of disconcertion in 207 00:11:52,800 --> 00:11:55,840 Speaker 1: the market's a greater amount of optimism in the markets. 208 00:11:55,840 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 1: The fact that we have taken Silk and Valley Bank 209 00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:04,439 Speaker 1: off the watch list for all intents and purposes, is 210 00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:07,319 Speaker 1: a is a great change. There was a change that 211 00:12:07,640 --> 00:12:09,760 Speaker 1: was occurring. You could see it, you can almost feel it. 212 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:14,880 Speaker 1: On Friday when for technical purposes, many of the bank stocks, 213 00:12:14,920 --> 00:12:17,720 Speaker 1: many of the rits, made the news and then closed 214 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:20,800 Speaker 1: higher on the day, reversing to the upside, which is 215 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:24,199 Speaker 1: something that I watched very closely. It was as if 216 00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 1: the worst had had occurred, the selling had washed itself out, 217 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 1: and now you've got a bounce coming. So we'll see. 218 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:36,080 Speaker 1: But yes, there's a greater sense of optimism this morning 219 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:38,280 Speaker 1: than there had been for a while. At least there 220 00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:41,880 Speaker 1: was no more bank collapses over the weekend then, and 221 00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:44,760 Speaker 1: the fact that the one major bank that had been 222 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:48,200 Speaker 1: problematic had been taken off the watch list and put 223 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:51,439 Speaker 1: on the sidelines is very important. So yes, there's a 224 00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:54,080 Speaker 1: greater sense of optimism, and we've seen in quite some 225 00:12:54,080 --> 00:12:56,840 Speaker 1: period of time. Do you expect that optimism to last 226 00:12:56,960 --> 00:13:01,120 Speaker 1: as probably not. I really don't think so. I think 227 00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:03,160 Speaker 1: that we are heading towards recession. I think that the 228 00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:10,480 Speaker 1: SAIDs monetary policies have been very tight in recessionary in orientation, 229 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:13,679 Speaker 1: and therefore I think that the stock prices make new 230 00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:15,920 Speaker 1: and newer lows. But for a while, for a week 231 00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:17,880 Speaker 1: or two or three, we're going to get a bounce. 232 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:20,360 Speaker 1: So I think that this bounce is one that if 233 00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 1: you are long, you should use this dis bounce, this 234 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:27,880 Speaker 1: return of a sense of optimism to reduce your exposure 235 00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:30,160 Speaker 1: as best you can. No, I don't think it'll last 236 00:13:30,280 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 1: very long. Yeah. It sort of echoes the comments we 237 00:13:32,920 --> 00:13:36,360 Speaker 1: heard over the weekend from the president of the Minneapolis Fed, 238 00:13:36,440 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 1: Neil cash Kari, who had been turning pretty hawkish when 239 00:13:40,559 --> 00:13:44,839 Speaker 1: it comes to fighting inflation, now saying that he also 240 00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:48,559 Speaker 1: sees a potential for a risk for a US recession. 241 00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:52,040 Speaker 1: Do you think that this banking crisis could lead to 242 00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 1: a change in the policy path for the FED? If 243 00:13:56,800 --> 00:13:58,920 Speaker 1: you'd asked me six weeks ago, I'd have said that 244 00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 1: we're going to have fifty base points in the last meeting, 245 00:14:01,559 --> 00:14:04,760 Speaker 1: then twenty five, twenty five and twenty five. Obviously that 246 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:07,480 Speaker 1: has changed. We had twenty five this pass meeting, we'll 247 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:10,640 Speaker 1: probably get two more twenty five basis point increases, and 248 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:13,760 Speaker 1: therefore the terminal rate has been reduced by about fifty 249 00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:15,440 Speaker 1: basis points from where I thought it would be six 250 00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:18,800 Speaker 1: weeks ago. So, yes, there's some change. There's not material, 251 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:23,520 Speaker 1: but there's a change. It's it's not quite as manifestly 252 00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:26,960 Speaker 1: over manifestly the recession area as it had been. But 253 00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:31,120 Speaker 1: nonetheless we're going into recession. Interesting because obviously a lot 254 00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:33,440 Speaker 1: of the pricing we're seeing in the market now is 255 00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:37,120 Speaker 1: that we could have a FED cut potentially as early 256 00:14:37,160 --> 00:14:39,720 Speaker 1: as June. Is the market wrong about this? If so, 257 00:14:39,800 --> 00:14:42,920 Speaker 1: why I think the odds of getting a cut by 258 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:47,720 Speaker 1: June are borderline zero. To be quite honest, the FED 259 00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:50,680 Speaker 1: has made it abundantly clear that they continue to fight inflation. 260 00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:54,520 Speaker 1: They're going to continue to tighten, and it'll be months, 261 00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:57,800 Speaker 1: maybe a year before after they've reached the terminal rate 262 00:14:57,800 --> 00:15:00,240 Speaker 1: of where wherever that terminal rate shall be, which is 263 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:02,440 Speaker 1: probably another fifty to seventy five basis points higher than 264 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 1: where it is right now, then the SAID will do 265 00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 1: nothing for a long period of time, perhaps six months 266 00:15:07,160 --> 00:15:08,800 Speaker 1: to a year. So I think it'll be a long 267 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:12,400 Speaker 1: period before the FED begins the process of actually reversing 268 00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:16,040 Speaker 1: the tightening and allowing the overnight said funds rate to decline. 269 00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:18,320 Speaker 1: It'll be a long period of time before that happens. 270 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:21,000 Speaker 1: So you don't see the possibility then that if we 271 00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:24,560 Speaker 1: do start to see financial conditions tighten up, that the 272 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 1: lending standards pull back within some of these regional banks, 273 00:15:28,240 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 1: that the Fed could change course. Got about a minute 274 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:32,400 Speaker 1: left here, Dennis. I think the odds of the SAD 275 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 1: changing its policy and beginning to allow the overnight said 276 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:39,400 Speaker 1: funds rate to decline is a long way into the future. 277 00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:41,560 Speaker 1: If I've learned anything in nearly fifty years of being 278 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:44,160 Speaker 1: involved in the markets, that's when the set has begun 279 00:15:44,200 --> 00:15:47,800 Speaker 1: the policy of tightening monetary policy or the policy of 280 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:51,040 Speaker 1: easing monetary policy. It takes rates much farther and for 281 00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 1: a longer period of time than anybody wants to dream 282 00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:55,200 Speaker 1: is going to happen. So I think it'll be at 283 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:57,680 Speaker 1: least twenty twenty four before we start to see the 284 00:15:57,680 --> 00:15:59,720 Speaker 1: overnight said funds rate begin to decline. It'll be a 285 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:03,200 Speaker 1: long period of time, so be patient and be a 286 00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:07,920 Speaker 1: little bit depressed about that time. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Today, 287 00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:10,840 Speaker 1: your morning brief on the stories making news from Wall 288 00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 1: Street to Washington and beyond. Look for us on your 289 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 1: podcast feed at six am Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, 290 00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:21,400 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 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