WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Steven Englander & Julian Emanuel

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Single best idea and a Friday, and we got through

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<v Speaker 2>the week, maybe even got through the month of July.

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<v Speaker 2>Remember that long ago and far away an economics, finance investment,

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<v Speaker 2>indeed on international relations. Maybe this weekend we survive into

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<v Speaker 2>the end of August and dash into the autumn. We

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<v Speaker 2>did it today with good conversations. Ben Ammonds was just

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<v Speaker 2>wonderful about what to look for at Jackson Hall all

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<v Speaker 2>of a sudden, important speech by Chairman Powell to reset

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<v Speaker 2>his vision, his belief. I think that'll be a huge

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<v Speaker 2>topic for us next week. Steven Englander I asked for

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<v Speaker 2>four or five days ago. In his busy schedule at

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<v Speaker 2>Standard Charter, the giant of cross rate analysis, Steven England

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<v Speaker 2>joined us. We talked about the discreetness of the Japan

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<v Speaker 2>events versus the Western events of slowing economies. Here is

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<v Speaker 2>Stephen Englander of Standard Charter Bank.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that the you know, the big markets trade

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<v Speaker 3>we saw in the West was basically a recession trade

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<v Speaker 3>that the you know, anybody looking at the unemployment trade

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<v Speaker 3>chart on Friday said, wow, this looks like every other

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<v Speaker 3>downturn in the US. And you know, the enterployment rate's

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<v Speaker 3>going to go up another two percentage points. You know.

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<v Speaker 3>I think the Japanese carry trade was a big deal

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<v Speaker 3>for Asia currencies because the weakness of the end had

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<v Speaker 3>dragged down CNH, had dragged down Korean One all its neighbors.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think that the unwinding of that trade sort of,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, unwound a lot of popular trades in the

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<v Speaker 3>FX market. But you know, I don't think it was

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<v Speaker 3>like a systemic force. I think it was just you know,

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<v Speaker 3>people realizing that, you know, the the end moving means

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<v Speaker 3>that they were wrong in.

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<v Speaker 2>Shorting you the broader economics from the PhD for me

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<v Speaker 2>ol Steven England, their standard charter bank, lots of good

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<v Speaker 2>equity voices this week. Let's take the optimistic view. Brian

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<v Speaker 2>Belski demo capital markets yesterday just on fire. Where's the bottom?

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<v Speaker 2>He doesn't know, he says, climb on board. And then

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<v Speaker 2>you've got a lot of others cautious or reaffirmation from

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<v Speaker 2>JP Morgan on their caution. Others measured all sorts of

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<v Speaker 2>nuances in between, and then they have to write and

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<v Speaker 2>this is something I want to talk about here. I

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<v Speaker 2>think it's important. One of the great great fictions is

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<v Speaker 2>that on Wall Street people worry about what people say,

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<v Speaker 2>and what global Wall Street knows is far more important

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<v Speaker 2>is what people write. I can't say this enough, which

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<v Speaker 2>is gospel is and blah blah blah like I'm Bloomberg's surveillance.

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<v Speaker 2>Gospel is a six page note on a Tuesday, written

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<v Speaker 2>after a four hour layover at O'Hare in Chicago. So

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<v Speaker 2>we really worry about what people write. Julian Emmanuel at

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<v Speaker 2>evercore Isi writes during earning season a brilliant two page

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<v Speaker 2>note with a one paragraph summary at the bottom of

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<v Speaker 2>what revenue dynamics and earning dynamics are doing. It is

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<v Speaker 2>absolutely must read on Wall Street. After this week, Julian

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<v Speaker 2>Emmanuel evercore Isi.

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<v Speaker 1>When you have volatility and it wasn't just the equity markets,

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<v Speaker 1>and it was you know, Japan's equity market was down

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<v Speaker 1>ten percent, FX went crazy, interest rates when crazy. That

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<v Speaker 1>kind of you know, sort of cumulative within the context

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<v Speaker 1>of thinking about all the events in July that transpired politically,

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<v Speaker 1>if nothing else, such that we got to a point

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<v Speaker 1>where earlier this week everything we were thinking about virtually

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<v Speaker 1>everything was called into question. But you put it all

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<v Speaker 1>together and I think you know, the reason the market

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<v Speaker 1>responded so positively to the weekly jobless claims, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the most on the ground statistic is because the recession

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<v Speaker 1>is not in sight. And frankly, what this does is

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<v Speaker 1>what it typically does when conditions get this tight. We

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<v Speaker 1>all know the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index is it resets

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<v Speaker 1>that wall of worry, and that's very important for bull

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<v Speaker 1>markets to be feeding on.

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<v Speaker 2>Julian Emmanuel ever Corei on Bloomberg Financial Conditions in next

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<v Speaker 2>something to watch there and the pros are watching the

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<v Speaker 2>incredible dynamics between accommodative and restrictive. One of the things

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<v Speaker 2>we've learned in the recent months with this wonderful rollout

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<v Speaker 2>of YouTube, we've completely under not we excuse me, I

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<v Speaker 2>have completely underestimated the international reach of YouTube. We're absolutely

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<v Speaker 2>humbled by the statistics of the granularity that we see.

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<v Speaker 2>We're rolling out a whole campaign to take the Pacific

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<v Speaker 2>rim from Jakarta and Singapore, up north to Japan and

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<v Speaker 2>all the way over to the huge YouTube community known

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<v Speaker 2>as India. That'll be something you'll see here in the

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<v Speaker 2>coming week's not so much conversations. The conversations will still

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<v Speaker 2>be very much American and Wall Street based, but we're

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<v Speaker 2>very cognizant of the reach of YouTube. To get there, subscribe,

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<v Speaker 2>go search rather to YouTube, Bloomberg podcasts. Everything's under Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>podcasts and search and subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts to pick

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<v Speaker 2>up all the great work that we're doing. We're on

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<v Speaker 2>Apple CarPlay, Android Auto as well on Apple Podcasts. This

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<v Speaker 2>is single best idea