1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:15,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:13,200 --> 00:00:16,720 Speaker 2: Single best idea and a Friday, and we got through 3 00:00:16,720 --> 00:00:19,880 Speaker 2: the week, maybe even got through the month of July. 4 00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:24,640 Speaker 2: Remember that long ago and far away an economics, finance investment, 5 00:00:24,640 --> 00:00:30,960 Speaker 2: indeed on international relations. Maybe this weekend we survive into 6 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:35,320 Speaker 2: the end of August and dash into the autumn. We 7 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:37,920 Speaker 2: did it today with good conversations. Ben Ammonds was just 8 00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:41,120 Speaker 2: wonderful about what to look for at Jackson Hall all 9 00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 2: of a sudden, important speech by Chairman Powell to reset 10 00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:48,280 Speaker 2: his vision, his belief. I think that'll be a huge 11 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:51,879 Speaker 2: topic for us next week. Steven Englander I asked for 12 00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 2: four or five days ago. In his busy schedule at 13 00:00:54,120 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 2: Standard Charter, the giant of cross rate analysis, Steven England 14 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:03,720 Speaker 2: joined us. We talked about the discreetness of the Japan 15 00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 2: events versus the Western events of slowing economies. Here is 16 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:11,280 Speaker 2: Stephen Englander of Standard Charter Bank. 17 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 3: I think that the you know, the big markets trade 18 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 3: we saw in the West was basically a recession trade 19 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:21,920 Speaker 3: that the you know, anybody looking at the unemployment trade 20 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:25,080 Speaker 3: chart on Friday said, wow, this looks like every other 21 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:28,559 Speaker 3: downturn in the US. And you know, the enterployment rate's 22 00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 3: going to go up another two percentage points. You know. 23 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:36,640 Speaker 3: I think the Japanese carry trade was a big deal 24 00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:40,320 Speaker 3: for Asia currencies because the weakness of the end had 25 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:44,600 Speaker 3: dragged down CNH, had dragged down Korean One all its neighbors. 26 00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:48,160 Speaker 3: And I think that the unwinding of that trade sort of, 27 00:01:48,280 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 3: you know, unwound a lot of popular trades in the 28 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 3: FX market. But you know, I don't think it was 29 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:56,720 Speaker 3: like a systemic force. I think it was just you know, 30 00:01:56,760 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 3: people realizing that, you know, the the end moving means 31 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 3: that they were wrong in. 32 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:04,760 Speaker 2: Shorting you the broader economics from the PhD for me 33 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:07,920 Speaker 2: ol Steven England, their standard charter bank, lots of good 34 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:10,760 Speaker 2: equity voices this week. Let's take the optimistic view. Brian 35 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:16,800 Speaker 2: Belski demo capital markets yesterday just on fire. Where's the bottom? 36 00:02:16,919 --> 00:02:20,400 Speaker 2: He doesn't know, he says, climb on board. And then 37 00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 2: you've got a lot of others cautious or reaffirmation from 38 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 2: JP Morgan on their caution. Others measured all sorts of 39 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 2: nuances in between, and then they have to write and 40 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:32,519 Speaker 2: this is something I want to talk about here. I 41 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:37,359 Speaker 2: think it's important. One of the great great fictions is 42 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:41,079 Speaker 2: that on Wall Street people worry about what people say, 43 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 2: and what global Wall Street knows is far more important 44 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 2: is what people write. I can't say this enough, which 45 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 2: is gospel is and blah blah blah like I'm Bloomberg's surveillance. 46 00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:59,920 Speaker 2: Gospel is a six page note on a Tuesday, written 47 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:04,240 Speaker 2: after a four hour layover at O'Hare in Chicago. So 48 00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 2: we really worry about what people write. Julian Emmanuel at 49 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:14,079 Speaker 2: evercore Isi writes during earning season a brilliant two page 50 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:17,960 Speaker 2: note with a one paragraph summary at the bottom of 51 00:03:18,040 --> 00:03:21,360 Speaker 2: what revenue dynamics and earning dynamics are doing. It is 52 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:26,359 Speaker 2: absolutely must read on Wall Street. After this week, Julian 53 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:28,639 Speaker 2: Emmanuel evercore Isi. 54 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:32,440 Speaker 1: When you have volatility and it wasn't just the equity markets, 55 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:35,520 Speaker 1: and it was you know, Japan's equity market was down 56 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 1: ten percent, FX went crazy, interest rates when crazy. That 57 00:03:40,520 --> 00:03:45,119 Speaker 1: kind of you know, sort of cumulative within the context 58 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:51,040 Speaker 1: of thinking about all the events in July that transpired politically, 59 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:53,720 Speaker 1: if nothing else, such that we got to a point 60 00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:56,920 Speaker 1: where earlier this week everything we were thinking about virtually 61 00:03:56,960 --> 00:04:00,320 Speaker 1: everything was called into question. But you put it all 62 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:03,240 Speaker 1: together and I think you know, the reason the market 63 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:07,560 Speaker 1: responded so positively to the weekly jobless claims, you know, 64 00:04:07,640 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 1: the most on the ground statistic is because the recession 65 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:16,039 Speaker 1: is not in sight. And frankly, what this does is 66 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 1: what it typically does when conditions get this tight. We 67 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:24,240 Speaker 1: all know the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index is it resets 68 00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:27,719 Speaker 1: that wall of worry, and that's very important for bull 69 00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:29,280 Speaker 1: markets to be feeding on. 70 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:34,599 Speaker 2: Julian Emmanuel ever Corei on Bloomberg Financial Conditions in next 71 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:37,520 Speaker 2: something to watch there and the pros are watching the 72 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:42,080 Speaker 2: incredible dynamics between accommodative and restrictive. One of the things 73 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:44,839 Speaker 2: we've learned in the recent months with this wonderful rollout 74 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:49,599 Speaker 2: of YouTube, we've completely under not we excuse me, I 75 00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:55,680 Speaker 2: have completely underestimated the international reach of YouTube. We're absolutely 76 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 2: humbled by the statistics of the granularity that we see. 77 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:02,880 Speaker 2: We're rolling out a whole campaign to take the Pacific 78 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 2: rim from Jakarta and Singapore, up north to Japan and 79 00:05:07,920 --> 00:05:11,880 Speaker 2: all the way over to the huge YouTube community known 80 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 2: as India. That'll be something you'll see here in the 81 00:05:14,440 --> 00:05:17,920 Speaker 2: coming week's not so much conversations. The conversations will still 82 00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 2: be very much American and Wall Street based, but we're 83 00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:26,240 Speaker 2: very cognizant of the reach of YouTube. To get there, subscribe, 84 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:31,600 Speaker 2: go search rather to YouTube, Bloomberg podcasts. Everything's under Bloomberg 85 00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:37,360 Speaker 2: podcasts and search and subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts to pick 86 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:39,880 Speaker 2: up all the great work that we're doing. We're on 87 00:05:39,960 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 2: Apple CarPlay, Android Auto as well on Apple Podcasts. This 88 00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:52,560 Speaker 2: is single best idea