WEBVTT - Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - March 13th, 2020 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:06.200 This is Bloomberg Business Week from Bloomberg Radio. Hi, I'm 0:00:06.280 --> 0:00:08.800 Jason Kelly and I'm Carol Masser. Welcome to the weekend 0:00:08.920 --> 0:00:12.119 edition of Bloomberg Business Week. This week the last year, 0:00:12.520 --> 0:00:15.000 this is a special takeover of the issue. It is 0:00:15.040 --> 0:00:17.680 all about the coronavirus, and we look at it from 0:00:17.760 --> 0:00:20.880 multiple angles because, safe to say, Jason, this story there 0:00:20.880 --> 0:00:23.640 are so many moving parts to it. And having said that, 0:00:23.760 --> 0:00:25.799 it was a fast moving story this week, well, and 0:00:25.840 --> 0:00:28.360 I think it's worth letting people know sort of what 0:00:28.440 --> 0:00:32.960 the editorial etho says it were of this magazine was 0:00:33.120 --> 0:00:36.519 this week, and that is to go from macro literally 0:00:36.720 --> 0:00:41.040 to micro, looking at global economics, looking at companies, looking 0:00:41.080 --> 0:00:44.599 at people, all the way down to the disease itself. Well, 0:00:44.640 --> 0:00:46.400 I loved it to some of the conversations that went 0:00:46.440 --> 0:00:48.320 around in the newsroom this week and this, you know, 0:00:48.360 --> 0:00:50.479 safe to say, folks, a little inside into what was 0:00:50.520 --> 0:00:53.159 going on here at Bloomberg and Bloomberg Business Week. This 0:00:53.320 --> 0:00:55.440 was our story this week because we were looking at 0:00:55.480 --> 0:00:57.920 it from so many different ways and it obviously impact 0:00:57.920 --> 0:01:00.160 of the financial markets. But someone saying it was us 0:01:00.200 --> 0:01:03.600 about GDP revisions than being a major disturbance to our 0:01:03.720 --> 0:01:06.119 daily life, and that's what it was about. And that's 0:01:06.160 --> 0:01:09.000 what happened this week that I think is really worth 0:01:09.040 --> 0:01:12.600 mentioning and underscoring, is that it went from the abstract 0:01:12.600 --> 0:01:15.760 in many ways, something that we were thinking and talking 0:01:15.760 --> 0:01:19.840 about as it related to overseas economies and supply chains, 0:01:20.080 --> 0:01:22.880 and it got all the way down to basketball tournaments 0:01:22.920 --> 0:01:26.080 being canceled, schools being closed, a suburb of New York 0:01:26.160 --> 0:01:30.360 City effectively being shut down, quarantined and contained, and all 0:01:30.400 --> 0:01:33.080 of this happening, and as you say, all of these 0:01:33.120 --> 0:01:36.200 things going on, and from an individual basis, for you know, 0:01:36.240 --> 0:01:38.240 reporters deciding all of a sudden to work at home 0:01:38.280 --> 0:01:41.320 because that made sense. And so it wasn't this far 0:01:41.400 --> 0:01:43.319 off story that we were all reporting on. It was 0:01:43.360 --> 0:01:46.360 impacting our daily lives. And so that's how the magazine 0:01:46.360 --> 0:01:49.120 looked at it, really from all different ways. Jill Weber 0:01:49.240 --> 0:01:51.320 is the editor of Bloomberg Business Week. He was the 0:01:51.320 --> 0:01:53.800 one who made the decision from this being a partial 0:01:53.840 --> 0:01:57.000 takeover of the magazine to devoting the entire issue to 0:01:57.160 --> 0:01:59.920 the virus and really stepping back and taking a look 0:02:00.000 --> 0:02:02.400 at the macro issues all the way down to the 0:02:02.440 --> 0:02:05.720 actual virus itself. Well, and it's not an easy task because, 0:02:05.760 --> 0:02:08.760 as you say, Carol, it is so fast moving. You 0:02:08.840 --> 0:02:13.840 had world leaders stepping in, you had CEOs making pronouncements, 0:02:13.960 --> 0:02:16.760 and it fell to Joel and his team to make 0:02:16.800 --> 0:02:19.040 sense of it all. So when we thought about how 0:02:19.080 --> 0:02:22.200 to do this issue, we started actually relatively small, and 0:02:22.200 --> 0:02:25.200 then we just kept getting more ambitious as we kept 0:02:25.200 --> 0:02:27.800 seeing some of the stories come in and kept asking questions, 0:02:28.120 --> 0:02:30.120 so that the idea of asking questions is actually the 0:02:30.120 --> 0:02:32.360 way that we framed the whole book. We started from 0:02:32.440 --> 0:02:34.720 the macro what does this mean for the global economy, 0:02:35.080 --> 0:02:38.919 and worked down from there, from through governments, companies, us 0:02:38.919 --> 0:02:41.640 as individuals in society, and all the way down to 0:02:41.760 --> 0:02:44.600 the virus itself. Right, So that was our lens, and 0:02:44.600 --> 0:02:46.639 then we just asked questions again and again and again. 0:02:46.960 --> 0:02:49.000 But the overarching idea is really this idea of the 0:02:49.080 --> 0:02:51.360 last year, right of like, we don't know what this 0:02:51.600 --> 0:02:55.000 means right now or how bad it will get, but everything, 0:02:55.320 --> 0:02:58.120 and especially as this became a pandemic, officially in a pandemic, 0:02:58.160 --> 0:03:01.760 now every all project actions out the window, and no 0:03:01.800 --> 0:03:03.760 one can even know if their kid's gonna go to 0:03:03.760 --> 0:03:06.440 a summer camp, right. That's the editor of the magazine, 0:03:06.520 --> 0:03:09.720 Joel Webber and Carol Obviously a key component of all 0:03:09.760 --> 0:03:14.079 of this, certainly close to home for everyone who knows 0:03:14.080 --> 0:03:17.840 Bloomberg was the market. Yeah, absolutely, And Mike G. Reagan 0:03:17.880 --> 0:03:20.040 really follows the stock market for us here in the 0:03:20.040 --> 0:03:22.520 financial markets. He's got a story in the magazine and 0:03:22.600 --> 0:03:24.720 what happened to the bull market because as we know, 0:03:25.280 --> 0:03:27.840 things change this week. Well, what's amazing to me is 0:03:27.840 --> 0:03:30.359 how many threats were thrown at this bull market over 0:03:30.400 --> 0:03:32.320 the years. You know, I look back at two thousand 0:03:32.320 --> 0:03:35.000 eleven when the US lost its triple A credit rating 0:03:35.040 --> 0:03:38.520 at SMP to the European debt crisis, all the various 0:03:38.600 --> 0:03:42.280 jew political dust stops in the meantime, the crash and 0:03:42.320 --> 0:03:44.760 oil prices in two thousand and sixteen, on and on, 0:03:45.160 --> 0:03:47.520 and it got very close to sort of hitting that 0:03:48.480 --> 0:03:50.600 drop that would sort of signal the end of a 0:03:50.640 --> 0:03:52.800 bull market and the start of a bear market. But 0:03:53.160 --> 0:03:54.960 both times in two thousand eleven and again in two 0:03:54.960 --> 0:03:57.120 thousand and eighteen, it's stopped just short of that, like 0:03:57.240 --> 0:04:00.720 nineteen points something so close, and it really made you 0:04:00.760 --> 0:04:03.360 sort of think, well, investors had kind of put some 0:04:03.480 --> 0:04:06.640 orders into by near those levels, thinking that you know, 0:04:06.720 --> 0:04:10.080 this thing can can survive almost anything. It felt like 0:04:10.520 --> 0:04:13.720 clearly the economic damage being done from this virus is 0:04:13.760 --> 0:04:17.479 just so great. It's so unquantifiable right now, Um, we 0:04:17.560 --> 0:04:20.279 know the damage is being done, how bad it is, 0:04:20.360 --> 0:04:23.000 how bad the effect on earnings and everything is just 0:04:23.080 --> 0:04:26.480 so unquantifiable that this this appears to be what's really 0:04:26.480 --> 0:04:28.680 going to do the trick and finally end this record 0:04:28.720 --> 0:04:33.040 long bowl market when ultimately investors are betting on the 0:04:33.040 --> 0:04:35.240 future in many ways, and one of the things that 0:04:35.279 --> 0:04:37.560 they're not hearing from companies, and one of the things 0:04:37.560 --> 0:04:40.240 that seems to be really spooking everyone is instead of 0:04:40.240 --> 0:04:43.000 companies saying, well, it's gonna take earnings down or it's 0:04:43.000 --> 0:04:46.799 gonna take revenues down x percent or x much, they're saying, 0:04:47.120 --> 0:04:50.120 we don't know right right, just withdrawing guidance. So it's 0:04:50.120 --> 0:04:53.120 almost a worst scenario than saying a drop, you know, 0:04:53.160 --> 0:04:56.080 predicting a drop of x percent um. And it's understandable. 0:04:56.120 --> 0:04:59.200 I mean, how can a company possibly, uh in good 0:04:59.200 --> 0:05:01.520 faith tell you what their earnings are going to be 0:05:01.600 --> 0:05:04.760 or even a wide range when there's so much uncertainty 0:05:04.920 --> 0:05:08.359 so much unpredictability about this virus, how long it's gonna last, 0:05:08.680 --> 0:05:11.240 how long this travel band is going to be enforced, 0:05:11.480 --> 0:05:13.039 on and on and on all the way up and 0:05:13.080 --> 0:05:15.400 down the markets. It's it's just impossible to price the 0:05:15.400 --> 0:05:17.960 equity market like we obsess about levels, right and when 0:05:17.960 --> 0:05:20.880 we hit a technical correction or when we hit hit 0:05:20.920 --> 0:05:24.120 officially a bear market. How important though is it in 0:05:24.279 --> 0:05:27.159 terms of what happens next for the financial markets? Well 0:05:27.200 --> 0:05:29.680 as far as trying to find that magic technical level. 0:05:29.720 --> 0:05:31.479 People have been trying to do with the the entire 0:05:31.520 --> 0:05:34.000 stretch of this and they've just been blown through one 0:05:34.040 --> 0:05:36.400 by one. You know, you think of you know, your 0:05:36.400 --> 0:05:38.120 two in a day moving average, a lot of people 0:05:38.160 --> 0:05:41.400 were hoping would cause a pause that round number at 0:05:41.400 --> 0:05:44.200 three thousands. Nothing is really working more than say a 0:05:44.240 --> 0:05:46.320 couple of minutes in the market as as far as 0:05:46.320 --> 0:05:50.520 the support level. So it's it's such an unprecedented situation, 0:05:50.839 --> 0:05:53.039 uh that, you know, as much as Wall Street loves, 0:05:53.080 --> 0:05:56.320 you know, to say past performance doesn't guarantee future results, 0:05:56.560 --> 0:05:58.360 that's what everyone does, is they go back and try 0:05:58.400 --> 0:06:01.599 to find that historical analog to what's going on. It's 0:06:01.600 --> 0:06:03.560 just impossible to do in this case. It's just we've 0:06:03.600 --> 0:06:06.120 never quite had a threat like this to the economy 0:06:06.360 --> 0:06:08.800 and a simultaneous threat to everyone's health and well being 0:06:08.839 --> 0:06:12.320 at the same time. That's sort of or inextricutably linked. 0:06:12.320 --> 0:06:14.680 You know, you're you're stressed out about the market, and 0:06:14.720 --> 0:06:16.760 you're also stressed out about you know, am I gonna 0:06:16.760 --> 0:06:19.919 have the quarantine? Is my family? Okay? My relatives overseas. 0:06:20.080 --> 0:06:22.960 It's a it's a very unique and unprecedented situation. And 0:06:23.000 --> 0:06:26.160 that's my Greek in giving us the markets perspective. We 0:06:26.200 --> 0:06:29.680 will look back, I believe on this week certainly as 0:06:30.040 --> 0:06:34.479 the end of the record long bull market and a 0:06:34.560 --> 0:06:36.800 moment where a lot change when it comes to equities. 0:06:36.880 --> 0:06:40.200 It's official, we're in a bear market. The economic impact 0:06:40.240 --> 0:06:42.400 of the virus, man, it is on everyone's minds. The 0:06:42.440 --> 0:06:45.440 coronavirus could cost the global economy two point seven trillion 0:06:45.640 --> 0:06:49.320 according to some of the latest reporting. Wow woa as 0:06:49.360 --> 0:06:52.040 I like to say, yeah, it's a wa number for sure, 0:06:52.200 --> 0:06:54.800 and a fast moving when a fast moving story in 0:06:54.839 --> 0:07:00.400 the takeover issue all around coronavirus. This week, economics goes deep, 0:07:01.040 --> 0:07:05.159 especially into China, where the source of this or at least. 0:07:05.160 --> 0:07:08.799 The original outbreak was what's the state of China? Christina 0:07:08.839 --> 0:07:11.960 lend Blood. Well, everybody is watching to see how soon 0:07:12.040 --> 0:07:14.280 the world's number two economy gets back on its feet, 0:07:14.280 --> 0:07:17.080 because it's important to just about every country. They're also 0:07:18.000 --> 0:07:22.440 and it's you know, also curiosity about how companies negotiate 0:07:22.560 --> 0:07:24.840 some of these obstacles. You know, for example, there and 0:07:24.960 --> 0:07:27.880 now like rules in China about how close workers can 0:07:27.920 --> 0:07:31.720 sit at lunch time, you know, at their desk um. 0:07:31.880 --> 0:07:37.960 But so basically analysts hours and at other banks on 0:07:38.040 --> 0:07:41.200 Wall STREETA and companies have been looking at statistics in 0:07:41.280 --> 0:07:45.560 China to try to gauge how quickly industry and and 0:07:45.600 --> 0:07:48.320 factories are coming back online. Now that's a tricky thing 0:07:48.520 --> 0:07:51.600 because for a long time there have been suspicions that 0:07:51.720 --> 0:07:54.040 you know, the government fudges its numbers. Right, It's tricky 0:07:54.040 --> 0:07:58.080 in normal times, right. So but because of that, though, 0:07:58.120 --> 0:08:01.840 people have these sort of proxy you know, data sets 0:08:01.840 --> 0:08:03.760 that they track, and one of them is energy and 0:08:03.760 --> 0:08:05.760 they've been looking they've looked at those for a long time. 0:08:05.800 --> 0:08:08.720 So now people for example are looking at like thermal coal, 0:08:08.840 --> 0:08:11.840 which is used you know for electricity production, to see 0:08:11.840 --> 0:08:15.320 what is consumption of thermal code telling me about like 0:08:15.360 --> 0:08:17.920 you know what, you know, how quickly the plants are 0:08:17.960 --> 0:08:21.640 coming back to life. Even that even that hasn't been 0:08:21.680 --> 0:08:26.000 totally reliable because we have now seen from interviews with 0:08:26.120 --> 0:08:31.040 plant managers, is that in several prefectures, you know, government 0:08:31.400 --> 0:08:35.839 UM officials handed out targets for you know how for 0:08:36.000 --> 0:08:39.360 energy consumptions. So that means that in like sometimes factory 0:08:39.400 --> 0:08:42.160 owners were going in turning on all the lights, running 0:08:42.160 --> 0:08:45.040 the machinery even if they didn't have you know, all 0:08:45.040 --> 0:08:47.320 of their workers back to actually be able to you know, 0:08:47.360 --> 0:08:50.280 really be doing full production against just to meet the target. 0:08:50.360 --> 0:08:52.520 It's like the movie Home Alone, you know, where he 0:08:52.520 --> 0:08:54.320 sets it all up to make it look like they're 0:08:54.320 --> 0:08:57.080 having a party. I thought about like growing up in Mighty, 0:08:57.200 --> 0:08:58.920 like shut off the lights, like you know, throwing on 0:08:59.000 --> 0:09:01.560 all the like. Know. What's interesting too, is we don't 0:09:01.600 --> 0:09:03.880 know that as China kind of tries to get back 0:09:03.920 --> 0:09:08.080 to normal and everybody comes back after being quarantined, what happens, 0:09:08.160 --> 0:09:10.280 I mean, do you get potentially another up break like 0:09:10.360 --> 0:09:13.720 we don't know? Right? Yeah, that has been uh something 0:09:13.760 --> 0:09:17.720 that some health um authorities outside the country have been 0:09:17.760 --> 0:09:20.600 warning about that you know, we could see another wave 0:09:20.840 --> 0:09:24.360 of infection and then and now what's happening more recently, 0:09:24.400 --> 0:09:27.400 now that it's clear that this is spilling over in 0:09:27.520 --> 0:09:30.760 economic terms to other countries, what people are worrying about 0:09:30.840 --> 0:09:33.760 is that there's going to be this feedback loop in 0:09:33.800 --> 0:09:36.800 which what it was initially like a supply crunch, like 0:09:36.880 --> 0:09:39.840 these factories couldn't get well, they didn't have workers and 0:09:39.880 --> 0:09:43.200 they couldn't get you know, inputs to to produce are 0:09:43.240 --> 0:09:46.600 now going to be hit by a demand crunch because, 0:09:46.920 --> 0:09:49.320 like you know, so their customers in Europe and the 0:09:49.400 --> 0:09:52.280 US are going to be canceling orders. And that's already 0:09:52.280 --> 0:09:54.600 starting to happen to some of the business people that 0:09:54.640 --> 0:09:56.160 we talked to. One of the things you point out 0:09:56.160 --> 0:09:59.480 in this story, which is really important is the size 0:09:59.640 --> 0:10:03.640 of economy, but also the size of the downturn here 0:10:03.920 --> 0:10:06.720 and the historical perspective there. You guys say, it's the 0:10:06.760 --> 0:10:11.040 fourth first quarterly contraction in decades we're likely to see 0:10:11.240 --> 0:10:14.720 and the weakest years since the early nineteen nineties for China. 0:10:15.040 --> 0:10:17.840 That's a long time. Yeah, And not only that, but 0:10:17.920 --> 0:10:20.640 the historical comparisons. You also have to consider the fact 0:10:20.679 --> 0:10:23.800 that like a decade ago, China's contribution to the world, 0:10:23.800 --> 0:10:27.640 the contract was much smaller. So you know, all of 0:10:27.679 --> 0:10:31.559 these you know, businesses, there's like all of these networks 0:10:31.600 --> 0:10:35.480 that have built up like so this transmission like effects 0:10:35.480 --> 0:10:38.160 that are going on kind of backwards and forwards along 0:10:38.240 --> 0:10:41.520 these relate these business relationships, right, That's what That's what 0:10:41.600 --> 0:10:44.600 people are beginning to to caution about now that it's 0:10:44.640 --> 0:10:48.160 going to sort of amplify the downturns in some places, 0:10:48.240 --> 0:10:49.880 and now where people are just going to try to, 0:10:49.920 --> 0:10:51.719 you know, get a grip on that. What about the 0:10:51.760 --> 0:10:54.120 Chinese government, man, we always talk about deep pockets and 0:10:54.160 --> 0:10:56.600 that when there's problems they can certainly dip into them 0:10:56.600 --> 0:10:59.920 to kind of help out society. We're talking about stimulus packages. 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:03.280 The magazines covering a lot about stimulus packages from different 0:11:03.280 --> 0:11:05.600 governments and around the world. What about that in China, Well, 0:11:05.679 --> 0:11:08.880 so far, what we've seen is not much from the 0:11:08.880 --> 0:11:12.120 monetary side, which is which in China doesn't have the 0:11:12.200 --> 0:11:15.000 same kind of stimulative effect that it doesn't in the 0:11:15.120 --> 0:11:18.280 US and other Western countries. So they're only like trimmed 0:11:18.280 --> 0:11:21.360 interest rates, I mean by comparison with the FED and 0:11:21.360 --> 0:11:24.760 and the Bank of England have done as much deeper cuts, 0:11:24.800 --> 0:11:28.040 but what they are doing is more targeted, you know, 0:11:28.200 --> 0:11:32.960 assistance to to firms, particularly in the areas well inside 0:11:33.120 --> 0:11:36.560 the province that's the epicenter and the surrounding areas. And 0:11:36.640 --> 0:11:40.360 we continue to think that they'll be modulating, you know, 0:11:40.440 --> 0:11:43.240 the extent of stimulus. But one thing is so far, 0:11:43.320 --> 0:11:45.560 I mean, they haven't said this out right, but that's 0:11:45.559 --> 0:11:47.880 like they do not want to do anything on the 0:11:48.040 --> 0:11:51.400 scale that we saw after the financial crisis because that 0:11:51.520 --> 0:11:54.000 was massive, um I think it was like twelve of 0:11:54.040 --> 0:11:57.760 GDP or something like that. And the indebtedness level that 0:11:57.840 --> 0:12:00.640 resulted from that, right, you know, is still the problems. 0:12:00.679 --> 0:12:03.120 So that is something that they're continued to work through. 0:12:03.240 --> 0:12:05.840 That leads to another story in the economic section, and 0:12:05.880 --> 0:12:08.680 I think this one is so front and center because 0:12:08.720 --> 0:12:11.520 it's not just I feel like the virus concerns, but 0:12:11.679 --> 0:12:15.480 the energy war that we're seeing has certainly put certain 0:12:15.480 --> 0:12:19.000 sectors interest. We're talking about corporate debt here in America. 0:12:19.320 --> 0:12:22.080 Tell us about the situation because we've seen companies, because 0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:24.480 that was so cheap, taking out a lot more debt 0:12:24.480 --> 0:12:26.920 coming off of the financial crisis. Yeah, so we've had 0:12:27.000 --> 0:12:32.040 like an eleven year expansion coupled with historically low interest rates. 0:12:32.600 --> 0:12:35.520 Um there's been a huge expansion in sort of high 0:12:35.600 --> 0:12:38.800 yield credit markets, and and and the just the corporate 0:12:38.800 --> 0:12:43.520 debtload which now for the first time since exceeds that 0:12:43.640 --> 0:12:46.880 of American households. So the I m F and other 0:12:46.920 --> 0:12:49.160 people have been warning that this is a problem for 0:12:49.200 --> 0:12:53.120 a while, like in the US and other countries. Powell 0:12:53.240 --> 0:12:57.600 and other um U S economists have all have also 0:12:57.800 --> 0:13:00.000 been quick to point out it's nothing on this scale 0:13:00.000 --> 0:13:03.280 alee of of the housing bubble, which you know, which 0:13:03.280 --> 0:13:06.280 brought down the economy. So there's been this attempt to say, like, yes, 0:13:06.800 --> 0:13:09.319 it's an issue, we're looking at it. We don't think 0:13:09.480 --> 0:13:13.160 it can on its own tip the US economy into recession, 0:13:13.520 --> 0:13:17.520 but it can amplify the effects of a downturn because 0:13:17.559 --> 0:13:21.600 if those firms that have you know, get downgraded, there's 0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:26.160 this cascading effect. The money managers who own this kind 0:13:26.200 --> 0:13:28.959 of debt have limits on what you know, on this 0:13:29.120 --> 0:13:32.319 the quality of the assets. They can hope they will 0:13:32.400 --> 0:13:35.120 have to sell down some of the stuff, and then 0:13:35.559 --> 0:13:39.240 you know, the companies get the borrowers are being cut 0:13:39.240 --> 0:13:42.760 off from credit markets, they're going to do layoffs, perhaps 0:13:42.760 --> 0:13:45.920 they're going to like pull back on investment. That has 0:13:46.040 --> 0:13:50.480 effects for GDP growth. So I think that, um, one 0:13:50.520 --> 0:13:52.040 of the things that we're going to be looking at, 0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:55.520 everyone's gonna be looking at, is pink slips. Is that 0:13:55.559 --> 0:13:58.000 people starting to get laid off. I mean, the FED 0:13:58.080 --> 0:14:01.000 has been clear that this is one of the things 0:14:01.040 --> 0:14:03.080 that you know, that's when people are going to start 0:14:03.080 --> 0:14:05.600 to get worried. That's the editor of the Economic section, 0:14:05.679 --> 0:14:08.600 Christina Lynn Blood, taking a look at the economy, the 0:14:08.640 --> 0:14:11.800 global economy. Front and center is China. We're all watching 0:14:11.800 --> 0:14:14.880 to see how quickly the Chinese economy will bounce back. 0:14:15.160 --> 0:14:18.640 It's not so clear cut well. And also the conversation 0:14:18.640 --> 0:14:21.880 about corporate debt. We talk about that a lot again 0:14:21.960 --> 0:14:24.600 in the abstract, what's going on with leverage loans, what's 0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:27.560 going on with companies borrowing. But we're going to start 0:14:27.600 --> 0:14:31.000 to see very specific examples and very specifically how this 0:14:31.040 --> 0:14:35.280 will play through to the broader economy. So we keep 0:14:35.280 --> 0:14:37.920 hearing about many ways to fend off the coronavirus. Got 0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:41.160 a really simple piece of advice, stay home. That's exactly 0:14:41.440 --> 0:14:44.520 what justin Fox Bloomberg opinion columnist is doing where he's 0:14:44.560 --> 0:14:48.600 coming to us from home from his computer thanks to NEXTI, 0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:52.760 which is our internal conferencing system. UM justin it sounds 0:14:52.800 --> 0:14:55.280 like simple advice. Yeah, I mean, and it's really simple 0:14:55.320 --> 0:14:58.520 for me. I'm an opinion columnist. All I need to 0:14:58.520 --> 0:15:01.640 do my job is phone and a laptop and an 0:15:01.640 --> 0:15:04.320 Internet connection. What's interesting is we're at this time where 0:15:04.320 --> 0:15:06.600 we're all trying to figure out, you know, how can 0:15:06.680 --> 0:15:08.800 we We can't contain it at this point, but it's 0:15:08.840 --> 0:15:11.080 all about mitigation. How do you prevent it from spreading? 0:15:11.080 --> 0:15:14.360 And we talk about you know, fist bumping and elbow 0:15:14.440 --> 0:15:16.840 bumping and all these different ways. There's no more handshakes, 0:15:16.880 --> 0:15:19.000 and we're all keeping kind of social distance. But as 0:15:19.040 --> 0:15:22.200 you point out, it's very simple because it's kind of 0:15:22.240 --> 0:15:24.080 an equation. And I think there's a word that I 0:15:24.080 --> 0:15:26.840 think we should teach to everybody, are not, because it's 0:15:26.880 --> 0:15:31.240 all about lowering the are not explain that I mean, 0:15:31.440 --> 0:15:35.160 are not is basically the infectiousness of a disease. It's 0:15:35.160 --> 0:15:38.360 how many people each person with a disease can be 0:15:38.400 --> 0:15:43.120 expected to infect. So if it's above one, the disease spreads. 0:15:43.200 --> 0:15:46.200 If it's below one, it doesn't spread. And every disease 0:15:46.240 --> 0:15:49.640 sort of had they estimate. What they are not is 0:15:49.800 --> 0:15:54.360 if nobody changes their behavior. And for the coronavirus it's 0:15:54.360 --> 0:15:57.280 pretty high. It seems to be between two and three, 0:15:57.400 --> 0:16:01.640 whereas for influenza moost estimates are usually down in the 0:16:01.680 --> 0:16:06.840 ones um. And and so the issue is it's different 0:16:06.880 --> 0:16:09.160 for different kinds of diseases. But kind of the basic 0:16:09.240 --> 0:16:12.680 elements of what makeup the are not are how long 0:16:12.680 --> 0:16:18.240 does the infection last, um, how infectious is the disease 0:16:18.280 --> 0:16:21.120 when you have contact with a person, and how many 0:16:21.120 --> 0:16:24.040 people do you have contact with? And we can affect 0:16:24.080 --> 0:16:26.840 that how infectious when we have contact with a lot 0:16:26.920 --> 0:16:29.840 of the things like washing our hands and not touching 0:16:29.840 --> 0:16:32.240 our faces and things like that. But then a lot 0:16:32.280 --> 0:16:34.360 of it is just if you reduce the number of 0:16:34.440 --> 0:16:38.760 people having contact with each other, if your society has 0:16:38.960 --> 0:16:43.080 social distancing, then the are not goes down. And you know, 0:16:43.160 --> 0:16:48.320 in China they reduced people's contact with each other till 0:16:48.400 --> 0:16:51.720 almost nothing and are not of the disease went below one. 0:16:52.040 --> 0:16:54.040 It may go back up again now that there are 0:16:54.080 --> 0:16:57.120 people out and about. And I mean the other thing 0:16:57.120 --> 0:16:59.560 I would say is we're still not there that it's 0:16:59.600 --> 0:17:03.400 completely uncontrollable, and South Korea has shown that you can 0:17:03.400 --> 0:17:05.120 get a lot of cases and if you have enough 0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:08.080 testing and people sort in the public health authorities are 0:17:08.119 --> 0:17:11.320 very aggressive, you can sort of bring it back in check. 0:17:11.600 --> 0:17:15.399 But that that goes hand in hand with measures to 0:17:15.520 --> 0:17:17.760 keep are not down well. And it's interesting. I do 0:17:17.840 --> 0:17:20.040 think about this. You know, this is our version of 0:17:20.280 --> 0:17:22.399 the Chinese quarantine. You know, if you stay at home, 0:17:22.400 --> 0:17:26.000 you're kind of self quarantining yourself, um and keeping yourself 0:17:26.160 --> 0:17:28.880 out of the public. It's not just about protecting yourself, 0:17:28.920 --> 0:17:30.600 but if you're not I think about this when I 0:17:30.600 --> 0:17:33.040 look at the subways, I feel like the traffic is 0:17:33.080 --> 0:17:35.800 way down, but you're protecting others who you might come 0:17:35.800 --> 0:17:40.520 into contact, especially when you're dealing with something like Yeah, 0:17:40.560 --> 0:17:43.320 if if people aren't as squeezed, squeezed as close together 0:17:43.359 --> 0:17:45.480 in the subway or in the office or in the 0:17:45.600 --> 0:17:48.800 like the soup line at Bloomberg headquarters, then there's a 0:17:48.800 --> 0:17:50.800 little bit lass risk. I mean, it's not like I'm 0:17:50.800 --> 0:17:55.000 doing some heroic thing here, but it does everybody's risk 0:17:55.080 --> 0:17:57.040 a tiny bit, right. I do think about our Business 0:17:57.080 --> 0:17:59.399 Week audience, and there's a lot of folks that probably 0:17:59.440 --> 0:18:01.480 read the MAGA scene are in that position where they 0:18:01.520 --> 0:18:03.240 can work from home. The other thing, and I don't 0:18:03.240 --> 0:18:05.679 know if you thought about this. I mean, increasingly what 0:18:05.720 --> 0:18:09.640 we're seeing companies are realizing that their systems, their technology systems, 0:18:09.680 --> 0:18:12.200 are being taxed as a result of this. Yeah, I 0:18:12.240 --> 0:18:15.040 mean if everybody, if every single interviewer you were doing 0:18:15.440 --> 0:18:17.680 was this way, and everybody was remote, and you guys 0:18:17.680 --> 0:18:20.480 were remote too, we might be struggling a lot more. 0:18:20.760 --> 0:18:25.280 It's sort of easier and like an early adopter here 0:18:25.280 --> 0:18:27.680 to um to do it. It might get harder later 0:18:27.960 --> 0:18:29.720 if more of us have to do this. You write 0:18:29.720 --> 0:18:31.400 about a lot of things, and I do wonder if 0:18:31.400 --> 0:18:32.880 you think about one of the things I think we're 0:18:32.880 --> 0:18:37.400 trying to assess, whether it's global supply chains or other factors, 0:18:37.680 --> 0:18:41.800 have something like the coronavirus might impact the workplace going forward. 0:18:41.800 --> 0:18:43.879 And I do wonder if you think that in the 0:18:43.920 --> 0:18:47.840 future we'll see more folks doing things online staying homes. 0:18:47.840 --> 0:18:49.280 I mean, we talked about this in the past when 0:18:49.280 --> 0:18:51.320 we've gone through other crises, but I wonder if you 0:18:51.400 --> 0:18:55.119 think something might be different this time around. And I 0:18:55.440 --> 0:18:57.879 you know, there's a steady trend in the direction of 0:18:57.920 --> 0:19:01.239 more people working remotely, and then there occasional things like 0:19:01.359 --> 0:19:04.560 when Melissa Meyer took over at Yahoo ordering everybody to 0:19:04.600 --> 0:19:06.680 come back to the office. So there's a back and forth, 0:19:06.720 --> 0:19:09.120 but it's pretty clear the trend over the past twenty 0:19:09.200 --> 0:19:12.200 years for obvious reasons, because it's more and more possible 0:19:12.240 --> 0:19:14.760 to do, and more and more companies are starting up 0:19:14.800 --> 0:19:18.840 that basically structure themselves that way from the beginning um 0:19:19.160 --> 0:19:23.000 and so you know, it's harder for big established companies 0:19:23.000 --> 0:19:25.000 to to change to that, and a lot of them 0:19:25.000 --> 0:19:26.639 wouldn't want to because you get a lot out of 0:19:26.640 --> 0:19:31.119 the in person interaction. So I mean, this will cause 0:19:31.160 --> 0:19:33.520 a lot more people to try it and will cause 0:19:33.600 --> 0:19:35.960 companies to figure out better ways to do it. So 0:19:36.320 --> 0:19:38.560 maybe it'll accelerate it a little, but I don't think 0:19:38.600 --> 0:19:41.480 it's gonna be some huge tipping point. And that's justin 0:19:41.600 --> 0:19:46.440 Fox or Bloomberg opinion columnists speaking appropriately from home. This 0:19:46.520 --> 0:19:49.840 has been the story of this entire virus in many ways, 0:19:49.840 --> 0:19:52.680 and when you think about it hitting close to home 0:19:52.720 --> 0:19:55.240 here in New York City and here in the United States, 0:19:55.280 --> 0:19:57.800 this is what we're seeing, company by company, our own 0:19:57.880 --> 0:20:00.320 and many others. Right, it's all about social distance. Seeing 0:20:01.280 --> 0:20:04.399 in the Business section this week several stories including what 0:20:04.440 --> 0:20:06.960 companies are doing to get ready for the virus. I mean, 0:20:07.080 --> 0:20:11.000 this is a huge global story. It's a big corporate story, absolutely, 0:20:11.080 --> 0:20:13.240 and CEO is having to make a lot of tough decisions. 0:20:13.280 --> 0:20:16.400 Workers having to make decisions obviously as well. Jim Ellis 0:20:16.600 --> 0:20:18.240 is the man in charge of all of our business 0:20:18.240 --> 0:20:21.639 covership Bloomberg Business Week. How do you take this on? 0:20:22.119 --> 0:20:26.600 This was this was difficult because what we've discovered over 0:20:26.640 --> 0:20:28.760 the last couple of weeks is that this is something 0:20:28.800 --> 0:20:32.159