1 00:00:02,880 --> 00:00:04,840 Speaker 1: Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Grodski. Thank 2 00:00:04,840 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: you guys for being here again. We had our special 3 00:00:07,560 --> 00:00:10,799 Speaker 1: announcement about the lawsuit for my nonprofit, the seventeen seventy 4 00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:13,480 Speaker 1: six Project Foundation. So I didn't get a chance to 5 00:00:13,560 --> 00:00:16,320 Speaker 1: talk to you on the Wednesday episode about some data. 6 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:19,599 Speaker 1: There's so much that came out over the week, it's 7 00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 1: no joke. I want to get right into it. First 8 00:00:22,560 --> 00:00:26,799 Speaker 1: of all, let's talk about China. As many of you 9 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:29,680 Speaker 1: have heard because you're interested in the news. China released 10 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:33,560 Speaker 1: their twenty twenty five birth data and the numbers were 11 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:39,320 Speaker 1: truly astonishing. So China's fertility rate dropped substantially. It's sound 12 00:00:39,400 --> 00:00:43,240 Speaker 1: two point nine to three children per woman. Yeah, zero 13 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:47,240 Speaker 1: point nine three people in China are having less than 14 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:50,720 Speaker 1: one child per couple. Those of you of a particular 15 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:53,920 Speaker 1: age may remember that. Going back in nineteen seventy nine, 16 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:57,280 Speaker 1: the Chinese Communist Party was so word of an overpopulation 17 00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 1: that they limited the amount of children a couple could 18 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:03,160 Speaker 1: have to one child. It was the one child policy. 19 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:06,760 Speaker 1: As a result, a lot of families were, you know, 20 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:09,040 Speaker 1: only trying to have boys. There was a spike in 21 00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:13,480 Speaker 1: international adoptions for girls Chinese girls, and there was a 22 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:17,280 Speaker 1: huge spike in actually abortions. From nineteen seventy nine till 23 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:21,920 Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, China aborted three hundred and thirty six million children, 24 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 1: predominantly girls, which I mean is like the population of 25 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:28,240 Speaker 1: the United States. They aborted the population of the United 26 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:33,160 Speaker 1: States over the course of those forty years. One's again astounding. 27 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 1: But in twenty sixteen China realized that they were having 28 00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:39,720 Speaker 1: a declining fertility rates. It was pretty substantial, actual declining 29 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:43,320 Speaker 1: forertilly rate, So they lifted that policy allowing couples to 30 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:45,680 Speaker 1: have two children. And then in twenty twenty one they 31 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 1: lifted that policy and Chinese couples can have as many 32 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:51,520 Speaker 1: kids as they want. Problem is, like many countries in 33 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:55,440 Speaker 1: East Asia, they don't want many children. Since twenty sixteen, 34 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 1: the number of children born in China has declined from 35 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 1: seventeen point eight six million to seven point nine to 36 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:07,480 Speaker 1: two million. It's down nearly ten million children over a 37 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 1: course of nine years. China is on a trajectory to 38 00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:15,360 Speaker 1: have fewer children in the next two years than Pakistan 39 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 1: or Nigeria. China is going to lose hundreds of millions 40 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 1: of people over the next few decades. They cannot stop 41 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:30,119 Speaker 1: the immense population decline that they are on precipice to undertake. 42 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:33,640 Speaker 1: Now what does that mean, Well, on foreign policy, it 43 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:36,800 Speaker 1: becomes much more difficult for China to dream up long 44 00:02:36,919 --> 00:02:40,679 Speaker 1: term international offenses. They still have millions of children born 45 00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 1: every year, but it's fewer and fewer and fewer. And 46 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:46,000 Speaker 1: unless they're going to do a Russia or Ukraine style 47 00:02:46,080 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 1: situation where they draft fifty year olds, having international conflicts 48 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 1: is really a young man's gain. It's going to be 49 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 1: much more difficult as their population continues to shrink and 50 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 1: birth rates can do shrink. But think of it also 51 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 1: from an economic standpoint. What happens when China's consumer base 52 00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 1: gets smaller. They lost three point four million people this 53 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:10,760 Speaker 1: year alone, and it does something to a society. Last year, 54 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 1: I was on a cruise, a Mediterranean cruise, which was great. 55 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:16,400 Speaker 1: I went to Spain, Italy and France. And France has 56 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 1: had a higher fertility rate than Spain or Italy for 57 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:22,880 Speaker 1: a very long time, substantially higher fertility rate than Spain 58 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:26,800 Speaker 1: or Italy, about fifty percent higher. And I noticed when 59 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 1: I was in France for the first time at the 60 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:32,480 Speaker 1: end of a long week of vacation that I saw 61 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:34,360 Speaker 1: kids for the very first time. I had not seen 62 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 1: any children in Spain or Italy, and I was like, wow, 63 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 1: that is that's pretty wild that I just noticed, like, wow, 64 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:44,240 Speaker 1: I didn't see children in these major cities that I 65 00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:46,720 Speaker 1: was in. That's you know, there was school time, so 66 00:03:46,720 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 1: maybe that was part of it, but there was I 67 00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:51,560 Speaker 1: was on the weekends too, and you just didn't see kids. 68 00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 1: That's what's going on in China. There's images out there 69 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:58,120 Speaker 1: of Chinese high schools which are humongous classroom sizes, and 70 00:03:58,160 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 1: then kindergartens which are basically empty. What also is is 71 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 1: an importance in the shrinking, how China is shrinking as 72 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 1: a country compared to other countries, right, and they're trying 73 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:13,360 Speaker 1: to stop this. They're trying to do something. Actually, last week, 74 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:17,880 Speaker 1: China put a thirteen percent added value tex on contraceptive 75 00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 1: drugs and condoms, which was basically met by indifference, according 76 00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:23,279 Speaker 1: to the New York Times. But I want you to 77 00:04:23,279 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 1: think about the scale of this on a global aspect, 78 00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:30,800 Speaker 1: and think about fertility from a global scale. Right, In 79 00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:34,080 Speaker 1: the last two years, the United States has had more 80 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:37,920 Speaker 1: babies than all of the European Union. For two years, 81 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:42,839 Speaker 1: India had more babies than North America, Europe, South America, 82 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:47,720 Speaker 1: and Australia combined. Pakistan has had more children in the 83 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:50,839 Speaker 1: last year than any one of those individual continents, so 84 00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 1: did Nigeria. The continent of Africa is said to eclipse 85 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:57,000 Speaker 1: all other continents in the next few years. Asia is 86 00:04:57,000 --> 00:05:00,240 Speaker 1: still ahead, but they're moving in one directional Africa is 87 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:03,320 Speaker 1: moving in the other, especially as India's fertility rate also 88 00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:06,520 Speaker 1: begins to shrink. Think of it in terms of both 89 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:12,440 Speaker 1: national security and markets. Right there is this ongoing delusion 90 00:05:12,680 --> 00:05:14,839 Speaker 1: on the part of Western Europe and the United States 91 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:17,719 Speaker 1: that somehow we can police the world. It's like the 92 00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:20,640 Speaker 1: World War two NATO gang always getting back together to 93 00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:22,160 Speaker 1: make things right in the world. 94 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:24,960 Speaker 2: How can that happen? As all of. 95 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:29,039 Speaker 1: These nations, including our own, see this trend coming, what 96 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:32,839 Speaker 1: will happen to international markets If Europe and America's population 97 00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:37,000 Speaker 1: is either shrinking or stagnant, and Africas and parts of 98 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:40,160 Speaker 1: the Third World in Asia are exploding but not developing 99 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:43,760 Speaker 1: a middle class, how many millions of those people will 100 00:05:43,760 --> 00:05:46,320 Speaker 1: try to come to the United States or Europe, or 101 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 1: Canada or Australia. What happens when Latin America or China 102 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:54,920 Speaker 1: become net importers of workers, you know, if we still 103 00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:57,600 Speaker 1: need them, given what happens to with A and I. 104 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:01,880 Speaker 1: But if we don't need them and we are economically dispossessed. 105 00:06:02,240 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 1: What happens when millions try to come to a country 106 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:08,560 Speaker 1: that doesn't have jobs for them. And immigration continues to 107 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:13,159 Speaker 1: be hotly partisan issue. All of these things really matter 108 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 1: going forward into the future, and they're not being addressed. 109 00:06:16,640 --> 00:06:18,679 Speaker 1: And that people talk about demographics is if it's only 110 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:21,080 Speaker 1: you know, a right wing kook issue, but it means 111 00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 1: a lot in terms of the future of the world 112 00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 1: and who leads the world. These are real fundamental questions 113 00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:33,839 Speaker 1: over who's choosing who's not choosing to have kids? Especially 114 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:35,920 Speaker 1: also when you look at which countries produce the most 115 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:40,880 Speaker 1: economic success. So much of the world's greatest inventions came 116 00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 1: from the descendants of very very very few parts of 117 00:06:44,279 --> 00:06:48,279 Speaker 1: Western Europe and East Asia. What happens when those future 118 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:53,960 Speaker 1: inventors and thinkers and economists and you know, brilliant businessmen 119 00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:57,320 Speaker 1: are never born. That's a real thing that the world 120 00:06:57,400 --> 00:06:59,479 Speaker 1: is going to see. I mean, and there was there 121 00:06:59,760 --> 00:07:02,400 Speaker 1: bring up this book all the time, but there was 122 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 1: not Robert Putnam's book, but the question of a national 123 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 1: IQ and a nation's IQ. It is better to be 124 00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:13,760 Speaker 1: a stupid person in a smart country than a smart 125 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:17,080 Speaker 1: person in a stupid country. And there will be more 126 00:07:17,240 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 1: people whose ancestry and lineage never invented the wheel being 127 00:07:22,680 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 1: born than have the printing press in the year fifteen hundred. 128 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 1: That kind of thing is going to manifest and become 129 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 1: a bigger and bigger issue. So China is feeling, and 130 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 1: China's feeling the crunch. Who knows that they can reverse it. 131 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:40,520 Speaker 1: I have a hunch, and I've never proven this out. 132 00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:42,680 Speaker 1: I've never looked at the data behind this, but I 133 00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 1: have a belief that the USSR used to tax childlessness. 134 00:07:47,960 --> 00:07:52,760 Speaker 1: But I think a problem for Western governments possibly could 135 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:59,400 Speaker 1: have been not tying retirement and pension programs to children. 136 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 1: In other saying you can obtain a full pension program 137 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:06,840 Speaker 1: if you have two children. I think that probably would 138 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:09,360 Speaker 1: have when it started in the nineteen fifties, that would 139 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:11,160 Speaker 1: have mitigated the issues. But who would have thought that 140 00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:14,080 Speaker 1: in nineteen fifties because everyone was having a ton of children. 141 00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 1: I think that that's a real reason we're seeing part 142 00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:20,559 Speaker 1: of this changes. And you can obtain a pension program, 143 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 1: there's a future tax bit to pay for it. But 144 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 1: as a tax base is shrinking, are they're suffering from 145 00:08:26,280 --> 00:08:29,160 Speaker 1: that change over time with demographics. It's kind of a 146 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:31,520 Speaker 1: really big ramifications for the future. It's a really interesting 147 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:34,280 Speaker 1: data point. Okay, we have a lot more to talk to. 148 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 1: We have new polling data that I want to dive into, 149 00:08:36,360 --> 00:08:40,280 Speaker 1: and we have official census data about the last year 150 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:44,280 Speaker 1: of Joe Biden's presidency, immigration and internal migration. All that's 151 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:50,640 Speaker 1: coming out for you. Next, Let's start with some polling 152 00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:54,480 Speaker 1: information to polling firms. Two prominent polling firms came out 153 00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 1: with polls that I want to cover about the state 154 00:08:56,280 --> 00:08:58,640 Speaker 1: of our country in the twenty twenty six election. Let's 155 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:00,800 Speaker 1: starve with the Emerson poll. There's not a ton of 156 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:03,400 Speaker 1: detail here from the Emerson College poll, but it does 157 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:07,640 Speaker 1: find that among Trump officials only Marco Rubio and Scott Bessett, 158 00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:11,079 Speaker 1: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett has a positive ratings. Rubeo is 159 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:13,880 Speaker 1: up two points forty three to forty one percent favorable 160 00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:17,080 Speaker 1: to unfavorable. Bessett, who was much less well known is 161 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:20,440 Speaker 1: thirty six two thirty five. The poll finds that Trump's 162 00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:23,240 Speaker 1: approval rating stands at fifty one percent, while his favorable 163 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:27,160 Speaker 1: is at forty three percent. Not a horrific place to 164 00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:29,600 Speaker 1: be in. Not a great place to be in. My 165 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 1: only hot take on this pole. Judging by the information 166 00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:35,360 Speaker 1: this wasn't explicitly written in the poll, but I was 167 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:39,199 Speaker 1: reading for the cross tabs, it is very likely that, 168 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:43,400 Speaker 1: given the information that was there, that college educated whites 169 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:47,040 Speaker 1: have a higher unfavorable rating of Ice than hispanics do. 170 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:50,960 Speaker 1: Just my little caveat. The poll also finds that Democrats 171 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:54,480 Speaker 1: lead Republicans in the generic ballot in twenty twenty six 172 00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 1: by six points. That's a very good lead for Democrats. Now, 173 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:00,920 Speaker 1: the poll isn't getting into them gonna get much press 174 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:03,360 Speaker 1: this Emerson Pole because the New York Times siena Pol 175 00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:06,440 Speaker 1: came out the same exact day on Thursday, and New 176 00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:09,160 Speaker 1: York Times Sienapol, whether they deserve it or not, is 177 00:10:09,160 --> 00:10:12,320 Speaker 1: considered the gold standard for polling in the media. I mean, 178 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:15,200 Speaker 1: they do a good job, and to their credit, they're 179 00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:18,559 Speaker 1: very transparent what they put out there, so I enjoy 180 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:21,200 Speaker 1: them a lot of other polling firms are not as transparent. 181 00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:24,000 Speaker 1: So let's go through the New York Times poll. The 182 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 1: Trump's approval rating is in bad shape. In the New 183 00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:29,440 Speaker 1: York Times poll, just forty percent of voters say they 184 00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:32,719 Speaker 1: approve of the job he's doing, while fifty six percent disapprove. 185 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 1: I want to point out in this poll, eighty six 186 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:40,240 Speaker 1: percent of Trump voters from twenty twenty four approve of 187 00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:44,280 Speaker 1: the job he's doing. Twelve percent disapprove. So the narrative 188 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 1: from the media that you're going to hear and you 189 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:49,440 Speaker 1: have heard from people on CNN or from pundits or 190 00:10:49,880 --> 00:10:53,240 Speaker 1: podcasters say, I know so many Trump supporters who regret 191 00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:57,880 Speaker 1: their vote. Probably you don't because almost they they're almost unanimously, 192 00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:00,559 Speaker 1: very very favorable of how they voted and support it. 193 00:11:00,760 --> 00:11:05,040 Speaker 1: The poll I want to also want to probably oversampl 194 00:11:05,120 --> 00:11:09,240 Speaker 1: sizes Democrats more than Republicans in the independent sample because 195 00:11:09,240 --> 00:11:11,640 Speaker 1: they say which way do you lean? It's a little 196 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:15,439 Speaker 1: favorable towards Democrats. So put that as a caveat. When 197 00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 1: I mentioned independence in this poll, how they're voting, it's 198 00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:22,040 Speaker 1: slightly more Democrat than it should be. Okay, question that 199 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:24,760 Speaker 1: they say. Voters say the biggest issue facing our country 200 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:27,800 Speaker 1: is the economy, followed by immigration, President Trump, the state 201 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:31,800 Speaker 1: of our democracy, and inflation. Minority voters say the economy 202 00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:35,920 Speaker 1: and inflation is a much more important issue than whites do. 203 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:39,240 Speaker 1: Forty percent of blacks, thirty seven percent of Latinos say 204 00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:42,800 Speaker 1: the cost of living in white and inflation rather are 205 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:46,400 Speaker 1: more important than all other issues. Just twenty five percent 206 00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:49,480 Speaker 1: of whites say the same thing. Fifty one percent of 207 00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:53,880 Speaker 1: voters say Trump's policies have made life more unaffordable for them, 208 00:11:53,920 --> 00:11:56,880 Speaker 1: twenty four percent say more to affordable, twenty three percent 209 00:11:56,960 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 1: say they have done nothing. It's actually not as horrible 210 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:03,640 Speaker 1: that pole, given that forty seven percent of the poll 211 00:12:03,679 --> 00:12:05,480 Speaker 1: are going to say Trump's doing a terrible job. No 212 00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:08,520 Speaker 1: matter what, It's not good for Trump, but it's not 213 00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:10,199 Speaker 1: as horrible as I think a lot of people in 214 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:12,320 Speaker 1: the media are going to say it is. On the economy, 215 00:12:12,360 --> 00:12:17,880 Speaker 1: Trump is severely underwater, negative thirty points among cost of 216 00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 1: living as the issue. The only issue Trump is doing 217 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:24,880 Speaker 1: worse on than cost of living is the Epstein files. 218 00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:27,640 Speaker 1: I want you to put that into perspective. All this 219 00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:31,680 Speaker 1: conversation about GDP growth and the stock market is not 220 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:35,439 Speaker 1: filtering people's day to day life. People had the expectation 221 00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:38,240 Speaker 1: that prices were going to go down, not that just 222 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:41,880 Speaker 1: inflation was going to go down, but prices were going 223 00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:44,880 Speaker 1: to go down Trump, and I want to say, that's 224 00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 1: affecting Trump on everything right. So people have at a 225 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:50,480 Speaker 1: bad taste in their mouth because of the economy. They 226 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:53,120 Speaker 1: have a bad taste because of everything right. Basically everything 227 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:56,120 Speaker 1: Trump is negative is a perfect example. Trump is negative 228 00:12:56,240 --> 00:13:01,200 Speaker 1: seventeen on his real Palestine conflict that he did. There's 229 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:03,040 Speaker 1: no reason for him to be negative seventeen. I mean, 230 00:13:03,040 --> 00:13:05,040 Speaker 1: I don't think it's a big issue for most voters period, 231 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:08,760 Speaker 1: unless you are you know, Jewish, or you're a raging 232 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:12,840 Speaker 1: you know, anti semi like miss Rachel the Kid's content creator. 233 00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:17,480 Speaker 1: But negative seventeen just shows how much people are negative 234 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:20,720 Speaker 1: to everything Trump's doing. The only issues that he's positive 235 00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:23,560 Speaker 1: on is the border, which is plus three, and his 236 00:13:23,679 --> 00:13:27,520 Speaker 1: deportation of illegal immigrants from the US. He's also plus 237 00:13:27,559 --> 00:13:31,160 Speaker 1: three in that I want to point out. In this poll, 238 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:36,040 Speaker 1: they ask the question of deportations several different ways. They 239 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:40,360 Speaker 1: ask about ice and then they ask about deportations as 240 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:45,520 Speaker 1: an idea. Deportations as an idea is still overwhelmingly favorable. 241 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:49,640 Speaker 1: The idea of Trump deporting illegal aliens is overwhelmingly favorable 242 00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 1: fifty to forty seven in a poll that he is 243 00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:56,240 Speaker 1: negative sixteen on. They don't like ice, they don't like 244 00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:59,280 Speaker 1: mass agents. They obviously don't like what happened in Minneapolis. 245 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:03,760 Speaker 1: They're There is a difference between people being full open borders, 246 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:06,559 Speaker 1: which is what the media is going to sell you on, 247 00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:12,160 Speaker 1: and not liking negative images on social media and in 248 00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:16,960 Speaker 1: the media. So there's two very different things. If Democrats 249 00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:19,800 Speaker 1: take this approach that, oh, look, they don't like ice. 250 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:23,440 Speaker 1: Therefore let's go back to Joe Biden, open the borders, 251 00:14:23,480 --> 00:14:29,000 Speaker 1: flood the country, They're wrong. People want deportations for illegal aliens. 252 00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:33,320 Speaker 1: They don't like bad images. That is true of everything. 253 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:36,800 Speaker 1: That is true of war. That is true of a 254 00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:38,760 Speaker 1: series of different things. If we go to war, if 255 00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:41,840 Speaker 1: the United States to go to war, you know, to 256 00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:45,000 Speaker 1: liberate I don't know, just name any dictatorship Iran. I'm 257 00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:46,800 Speaker 1: not saying we should. I'm just saying if we did, 258 00:14:47,240 --> 00:14:49,200 Speaker 1: there may be a boost of people who sit there 259 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:51,800 Speaker 1: and say, yes, free the people of Iran. They don't 260 00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:54,560 Speaker 1: like images of people being shot is, and that's not 261 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 1: a perfect analogy, but that's what I'm working with. It's 262 00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:01,920 Speaker 1: just how people feel when they see the actual images 263 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:05,960 Speaker 1: versus when they see the idea. They want people deported, 264 00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:10,280 Speaker 1: the two issues Republican voters are the most enthusiastic by, 265 00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:14,360 Speaker 1: according to The New York Times, Sana Pole deportations and 266 00:15:14,640 --> 00:15:18,640 Speaker 1: the border. Interesting question in this poll that was also 267 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:21,160 Speaker 1: asked that is not going to get any media coverage 268 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:24,120 Speaker 1: at all, but I want to just mention it because 269 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 1: it is a good data set about how we view 270 00:15:28,320 --> 00:15:32,200 Speaker 1: us as people. They asked voters who didn't have children, 271 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:35,720 Speaker 1: do you want to have kids in the future? Forty 272 00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:37,560 Speaker 1: six percent, And I want to put a point at 273 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:39,480 Speaker 1: almost everyone over the age of forty five said no, 274 00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 1: So let's take that as a caveat forty six percent 275 00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:47,520 Speaker 1: of Republicans said yes. Forty three percent of Trump supporters 276 00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 1: said yes they would like to have children in the future. 277 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:53,880 Speaker 1: That's a plus fifteen among Republicans compared to those who 278 00:15:53,960 --> 00:16:00,240 Speaker 1: said no. Among Kamala Harris voters, forty seven percent said no, 279 00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 1: twenty five percent yes negative twenty two points. Among Democrats, 280 00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:09,920 Speaker 1: twenty nine percent yes said yes, thirty nine percent said, no, 281 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:15,920 Speaker 1: the idea of having children is becoming so partisan. It's 282 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:18,840 Speaker 1: becoming such a partisan issue. Just like a couple of 283 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 1: episodes ago or a while ago. Rather, we did an 284 00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:23,480 Speaker 1: episode on religion, and I said that Ryan Burgess, who's 285 00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:26,240 Speaker 1: on the show that day, he said that church is 286 00:16:26,240 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 1: increasingly becoming the Republican Party at prayer families. Is the 287 00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 1: difference between Republicans having sex versus Democrats ones producing kids 288 00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 1: ones not. I mean that I don't want to be crude, 289 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:39,680 Speaker 1: because you know, I keep this show very g rated, 290 00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:45,160 Speaker 1: but that is a very, very stark difference in the 291 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:48,600 Speaker 1: idea of having kids. One party is flat out saying 292 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:51,400 Speaker 1: I don't want to have children. I don't know what 293 00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:54,920 Speaker 1: that does twenty years from now, but it's very very 294 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:58,680 Speaker 1: interesting now. Nate Cohen from the New York Times had 295 00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:01,240 Speaker 1: an observation that was worth pointing out. He said that 296 00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:05,440 Speaker 1: Trump is losing ground the fastest among groups he won 297 00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:08,720 Speaker 1: over in twenty twenty four, especially eighteen to twenty nine 298 00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:11,800 Speaker 1: year olds and non white voters. I agree, obviously with 299 00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:14,400 Speaker 1: the data that he's sitting there and mentioning, but I 300 00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:18,119 Speaker 1: think worth pointing out is that that's not how the 301 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:22,480 Speaker 1: necessarily're feeling about Republicans as a whole, and I want 302 00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:24,600 Speaker 1: to go into it with the cross tabs over the 303 00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 1: twenty twenty six election. So this poll asked who are 304 00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:29,840 Speaker 1: you planning on voting for in twenty twenty six? Democrats 305 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:32,280 Speaker 1: lead by five points, which is basically what the Emerson 306 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:36,520 Speaker 1: pole says, which is at six points. Democrats dominate among 307 00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:40,479 Speaker 1: women by sixteen points, voters under thirty by twenty seven points, 308 00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:44,160 Speaker 1: those between thirty to forty four my demographic by twelve points, 309 00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:47,040 Speaker 1: whites with a college degree by twenty one points, and 310 00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:51,360 Speaker 1: independence by fifteen points. Once again, remember poll slightly over 311 00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:54,840 Speaker 1: samples Democrats and the independent number, but that's okay, excuse 312 00:17:54,880 --> 00:18:00,320 Speaker 1: a little liberal interesting though. Among Latinos, Democrats hold a 313 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:04,480 Speaker 1: sixteen point advantage, which is much closer to Trump's number 314 00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:08,480 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four than Democrats number in twenty eighteen. 315 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:13,119 Speaker 1: Among blacks it's positive fifty three, also closer to Trump's 316 00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:16,679 Speaker 1: number in twenty twenty four than Democrats number in twenty 317 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:20,119 Speaker 1: eighteen or I mean twenty sixteen for that matter. Eighty 318 00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:23,200 Speaker 1: nine percent of Trump's supporters say they plan on voting 319 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:26,760 Speaker 1: for the Republican in twenty twenty six, ninety two percent 320 00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:28,639 Speaker 1: of Howard supporters say they plan on voting for the 321 00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:32,879 Speaker 1: Democrat in twenty twenty six. All that's basically unchanged. Where 322 00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:37,720 Speaker 1: this infusion of new support for Democrats really comes from. 323 00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 1: I mean, there's an enthusiasm GOP, clearly, But what this 324 00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:44,280 Speaker 1: big number comes from are people who didn't vote at all. 325 00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:46,840 Speaker 1: Among people who did not vote in twenty twenty four, 326 00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:51,920 Speaker 1: they favored Democrats by fifteen points though, And I want 327 00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:53,919 Speaker 1: to I mean, I hate to be that person who 328 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:56,159 Speaker 1: says there and says, oh, this polling is incorrect. The 329 00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:58,720 Speaker 1: one thing that I have a little issue with is 330 00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:01,920 Speaker 1: that the poll found that twenty percent of the electorate 331 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:04,359 Speaker 1: is going to be people who didn't vote in the 332 00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:08,320 Speaker 1: presidential election. I think that's a little high in my 333 00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:09,560 Speaker 1: own personal opinion. 334 00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:12,040 Speaker 2: But that's whatever, Okay, that's the poll. 335 00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:14,000 Speaker 1: I only say. I mean, everyone's like, oh, I don't 336 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 1: believe polling. But we all love poles at least we 337 00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:19,920 Speaker 1: find them interesting. And I want to say that we 338 00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:24,480 Speaker 1: should watch the trajectory of how that changes over time. 339 00:19:25,160 --> 00:19:28,359 Speaker 1: If Trump can claw back to forty five or forty 340 00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:31,679 Speaker 1: six percent in the poll, up five or six points. 341 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:36,480 Speaker 1: That is going to look very good for Republicans going 342 00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:38,440 Speaker 1: in the mid terms. They could probably claw back two 343 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:40,720 Speaker 1: or three points because they're not nearly as far down 344 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:44,120 Speaker 1: as as Trump is. The idea of a generic Republican 345 00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:46,639 Speaker 1: is still more exciting than a generic Democrat or sorry 346 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:49,919 Speaker 1: than Trump is, and the margin between Democrats and Republicans 347 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:52,879 Speaker 1: is not that bad. It could be a lot worse, 348 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,359 Speaker 1: And if Trump gets up five points, Republicans will probably 349 00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:57,560 Speaker 1: claw back one or two or three points, and then 350 00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:01,000 Speaker 1: they'll be much in a much better place for heavily 351 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:05,480 Speaker 1: competitive seats. Okay, last other story before we go to 352 00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:09,920 Speaker 1: ask me anything is the Census finally released their data 353 00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:13,159 Speaker 1: for the twenty twenty four year. It takes a Census 354 00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:15,479 Speaker 1: a very long time to finish data, so we're always 355 00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:18,760 Speaker 1: behind by a year a year and a half. In 356 00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:23,280 Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, they found that twenty four states lost 357 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:26,960 Speaker 1: had a net decline in population among Americans. I means 358 00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:30,480 Speaker 1: more Americans moved out of those states than moved in them. 359 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 1: Those states include New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Illinois, Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Louisiana, Nebraska, 360 00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:47,080 Speaker 1: New Mexico, California, Oregon, and Washington, lots of big blue states. 361 00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:54,960 Speaker 1: Among states that Trump won from twenty twenty four, only Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, 362 00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:58,520 Speaker 1: North Dakota, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alaska lost Americans. I know 363 00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:01,080 Speaker 1: that's like a lot, but it's relatively not when you 364 00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:04,680 Speaker 1: look at how many of those states Democrats lost. Overwhelmingly 365 00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:08,080 Speaker 1: Republicans continue to migrate. Two red states and two states 366 00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:11,360 Speaker 1: that Donald Trump won the only states that Kamala Harris 367 00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:15,359 Speaker 1: one that saw an increasing population of Americans moving there, 368 00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:21,399 Speaker 1: New Hampshire, Maine, Delaware, Virginia, Colorado. I'm trying to look 369 00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:26,360 Speaker 1: if I missed anything, Colorado, Virginia, Delaware, New Hampshire, and Maine. 370 00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:27,440 Speaker 2: That's it. That's it. 371 00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:31,200 Speaker 1: That's not great for Democrats, especially as we go into 372 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:35,280 Speaker 1: twenty five. So those states that saw a net decline 373 00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:41,000 Speaker 1: among American population didn't see a net decline among overall population. 374 00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:41,600 Speaker 2: Most of them. 375 00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:45,440 Speaker 1: Why immigration legal and illegal? I need to point out 376 00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 1: to everybody who's there and star I was talking about 377 00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:51,240 Speaker 1: illegal immigration. No, it was also very much legal immigration. 378 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 1: According to the Census, two million, five hundred and fifty 379 00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:59,240 Speaker 1: two thousand, one hundred and ninety three immigrants moved to 380 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:02,200 Speaker 1: the US in twenty twenty four. That is bigger than 381 00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:05,159 Speaker 1: many states in this country two point five to five million. 382 00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:08,040 Speaker 1: The states that saw the most immigrants come to them 383 00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:12,600 Speaker 1: number one Texas three hundred and nineteen thousand, six hundred 384 00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:16,479 Speaker 1: and seven. Number two California three hundred and six thousand, 385 00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:20,080 Speaker 1: eight hundred and sixty seven, Number three Florida two hundred 386 00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:23,720 Speaker 1: and ninety nine thousand, Number four New York one hundred 387 00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:27,480 Speaker 1: and sixty nine thousand, five hundred and lastly Illinois with 388 00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:33,480 Speaker 1: ninety five thousand, five hundred and fifty. Because California, New York, 389 00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:38,879 Speaker 1: and Illinois are so heavenly dependent upon immigration. If Trump 390 00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:41,520 Speaker 1: is truly cracking down on legal immigration, which will know 391 00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,159 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty seven the twenty twenty five numbers, and 392 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,960 Speaker 1: more important, we'll know in twenty twenty eight the twenty 393 00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:50,400 Speaker 1: twenty six numbers, which will be really informative, although by 394 00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:53,760 Speaker 1: that point, obviously the midterms will be over, but redistricting won't. 395 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:56,560 Speaker 1: Will be able to see the effects from redistricting in 396 00:22:56,680 --> 00:23:00,359 Speaker 1: those years. If those numbers decline, I expe back to 397 00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:05,240 Speaker 1: see some level of population loss or stagnation among those 398 00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:08,640 Speaker 1: big blue states, especially Illinois, which I think is population 399 00:23:08,680 --> 00:23:12,960 Speaker 1: would create if we crack down immigration and especially illegal immigration. 400 00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:15,280 Speaker 2: Very fascinating stuff. 401 00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:17,440 Speaker 1: Those numbers will come out soon, and also the twenty 402 00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:20,680 Speaker 1: thirty estimates of what states are getting and losing Congression 403 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:23,600 Speaker 1: dishes will probably update it in a very short period 404 00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:24,040 Speaker 1: of time, so. 405 00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:25,119 Speaker 2: I will come back with that. 406 00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:27,160 Speaker 1: We're going to see if people a voting with their feet, 407 00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:30,320 Speaker 1: how people are, how immigration is changing, legal and illegal, 408 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:33,320 Speaker 1: and what that does for the next decade. I've often 409 00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:37,640 Speaker 1: predicted the twenty piece could be a Republican presidential domination decade. 410 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:40,639 Speaker 1: Just how people are moving around. We'll see if that 411 00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:43,480 Speaker 1: affects the twenty how that affects the House and the Senate, 412 00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:46,359 Speaker 1: but how people are moving around that will affect the 413 00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:54,160 Speaker 1: presidency certainly. Okay, coming up next, Ask Me Anything now, 414 00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:55,840 Speaker 1: it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If you 415 00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,240 Speaker 1: want a part of the Ask Me Anything segment, emaim 416 00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:01,200 Speaker 1: me Ryan at Numbers Game Podcast dot com. That's Ryan, 417 00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:04,080 Speaker 1: a numbers plural Numbers Gamepodcast dot com. I love getting 418 00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:07,720 Speaker 1: your emails. First question is Ryan love your podcast found 419 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:09,840 Speaker 1: out through Ann Colter, whom I love I think answer 420 00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:11,960 Speaker 1: me back on the podcast. By the way, she said 421 00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:14,600 Speaker 1: that she was interested. Italian guy here from the mother 422 00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:18,120 Speaker 1: country Brooklyn, now La. In your podcast on January nineteenth, 423 00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:20,880 Speaker 1: you mentioned California and Minnesota how they could lose House 424 00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:22,080 Speaker 1: seats in twenty thirty two. 425 00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:23,720 Speaker 2: Theoretically, you are correct. 426 00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:27,200 Speaker 1: Practically, if we lose the twenty twenty eight presidential election 427 00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:29,159 Speaker 1: and the House in twenty twenty six, there's nothing to 428 00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:32,919 Speaker 1: stop the demon rats. It's a very boomer term, the 429 00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:35,879 Speaker 1: different rats from reopening the floodgates. So tell me, how 430 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:38,239 Speaker 1: do we survive? How can California toured red once it 431 00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:43,560 Speaker 1: was in the nineteen eighties? Cheers Tomaso. Tomaso, great question. 432 00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:47,920 Speaker 1: So yeah, so Democrats win the presidency in twenty twenty eight, 433 00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:50,800 Speaker 1: let's say it's Gavin Newsom or whomever. They would have 434 00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:53,960 Speaker 1: basically a year and a half. The way it works 435 00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:57,479 Speaker 1: is also they have congressional budgeting, so a lot of it. 436 00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:02,199 Speaker 1: I mean, they will stop the enforcement measures, but it 437 00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:05,920 Speaker 1: would yes, in theory. Yes, you're one hundred percent right. 438 00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,600 Speaker 1: Twenty twenty eight is very important because let's say we 439 00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:11,160 Speaker 1: have a repeat of Joe Biden and three million people 440 00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:13,720 Speaker 1: come into the country. It will probably erase everything that 441 00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:18,200 Speaker 1: was lost under the Trump presidency. The net effects, though, 442 00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:22,280 Speaker 1: of people who are not coming and of population loss 443 00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:26,760 Speaker 1: because of how Native American American citizens are moving will 444 00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,760 Speaker 1: not be erased right because they're not all going to 445 00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:34,320 Speaker 1: move to Minnesota or California. Even when Biden was president 446 00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:38,000 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one twenty twenty two, Blue states did 447 00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:41,199 Speaker 1: not gain like seventy five or eighty percent of the 448 00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:44,840 Speaker 1: illegal alien population. They were very evenly divided among the 449 00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:48,160 Speaker 1: count Among the states, Texas received a ton, Florida received 450 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:51,400 Speaker 1: a ton, North Carolina received a ton. Illegal immigrants tend 451 00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:53,960 Speaker 1: to go where they know people, and unless it's like 452 00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:57,200 Speaker 1: West Virginia or Vermont, they tend to know people close 453 00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:01,959 Speaker 1: to everywhere. Especially now it's self depor rotations happening, those 454 00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:07,199 Speaker 1: networks of illegal aliens are getting smaller. Also, remember the 455 00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:11,960 Speaker 1: refuge g apparatus is declining. It's going to take years, 456 00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:14,479 Speaker 1: and that's what Biden actually found in the first year 457 00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:18,119 Speaker 1: of his presidency, the refuge g apparatus that was built 458 00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:21,240 Speaker 1: for decades that Trump dismantled in twenty In the first 459 00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:24,080 Speaker 1: on the first administration, which was very successful at took 460 00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:27,240 Speaker 1: years to rebuild, so the decline can't stop. It's just 461 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:30,280 Speaker 1: a matter of how many If like JD. Vans wins 462 00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:33,080 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty eight, let's say, and he continues the 463 00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:36,560 Speaker 1: Trump efforts on immigration or goes a step further, then 464 00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:40,400 Speaker 1: you're going to possibly see the numbers of California decline 465 00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:43,879 Speaker 1: from let's say three congressional districts two four or instead 466 00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:45,760 Speaker 1: of two to three or whatever the case is. It's 467 00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:47,760 Speaker 1: a matter of like one year, one extra one there. 468 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:49,880 Speaker 1: But you are right, it does matter. Twenty twenty eight 469 00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:53,600 Speaker 1: is very very very consequential for that reason, but it's 470 00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:55,560 Speaker 1: not going to stop the decline. The decline has been 471 00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:59,080 Speaker 1: happening on its own, and Native American Native born American 472 00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:03,240 Speaker 1: as American citizens are already flaying those states in droves. 473 00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:07,280 Speaker 1: Last question, Hi, Ryan, glad you've cleared your inbox. I 474 00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:09,480 Speaker 1: know tough that can be. You have no idea. I 475 00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:13,280 Speaker 1: have so many times wait side note, sidebar, there have 476 00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:15,920 Speaker 1: been so many times where my inbox was so full 477 00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,199 Speaker 1: I just started a new email address because I was 478 00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:20,679 Speaker 1: too exhausting to have to actually go through an all 479 00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:24,320 Speaker 1: email like my actual connections either work or family, and 480 00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:26,240 Speaker 1: be like, hey, this is the new email I'm using. 481 00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:27,000 Speaker 2: I just can't. 482 00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:29,280 Speaker 1: I can't deal with how many unready emails I had 483 00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:33,200 Speaker 1: in this particular email box. So it's rough anyway. Thank 484 00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:36,080 Speaker 1: you though, because this is dedicated just to the podcast. 485 00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:37,800 Speaker 2: So it's manageable. Thank you. 486 00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:40,200 Speaker 1: Glad you've cleared your inbox. I came across you when 487 00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:42,240 Speaker 1: you were on Lisa Booth this podcast about four months ago. 488 00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:45,280 Speaker 1: Lisa is great, loved your insights on that particular episode, 489 00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:47,439 Speaker 1: and you've been a great follow in hearing your interviews. 490 00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:50,199 Speaker 1: I heard that ICE has reached their recruitment goal of 491 00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:52,920 Speaker 1: ten thousand new agents with the OBB and actually have 492 00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:56,080 Speaker 1: surpassed then. I also heard recently Minnesota Minneapolis local police 493 00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:57,480 Speaker 1: have been signed up to be part of ICE. I 494 00:27:57,520 --> 00:27:59,040 Speaker 1: actually didn't know that. I'm going to look that up. 495 00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,240 Speaker 1: Do you think that within the large number moving there, 496 00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:04,680 Speaker 1: that ICE can make a real difference now? To win 497 00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:08,840 Speaker 1: this battle, we need to get illegal immigrations out with violence, 498 00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:11,200 Speaker 1: these agents indoor. I can't help but think that these 499 00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:13,639 Speaker 1: individuals are going to start getting scared for their lives 500 00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:18,480 Speaker 1: and begin to retreat. Keep ongoing with your content, and 501 00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:25,200 Speaker 1: he said, this is so many andrew Is. Andrew said, 502 00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:27,400 Speaker 1: I will say I have started a counter. How many 503 00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:29,679 Speaker 1: times you say sit there in all your episodes? I 504 00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:33,520 Speaker 1: do say that a lot. I know I have certain 505 00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:36,679 Speaker 1: like you know I have, there's certain things that I 506 00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:39,720 Speaker 1: have noticed I say that I try to peel back. 507 00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:41,800 Speaker 1: I used to say watch you might call it literally 508 00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:47,920 Speaker 1: every other word. I have definitely stopped that, but I 509 00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:51,160 Speaker 1: do say sit there. My employees have noticed that too. Anyway, 510 00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:54,120 Speaker 1: thank you so much for pointing that out, Andrew. Yeah, 511 00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,920 Speaker 1: this is why they wear masks. I mean, truly, this 512 00:28:57,000 --> 00:28:59,520 Speaker 1: is why ICE agents identities are protected, is because there 513 00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:02,400 Speaker 1: are psych go activists out there who would target them. 514 00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:06,960 Speaker 1: I understand why they're doing it to conceal their identity, 515 00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:11,520 Speaker 1: and I understand the politics of why that's not popular. Oftentimes, 516 00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:15,760 Speaker 1: there are just instances where unpopular things are not are 517 00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:19,680 Speaker 1: not are are are necessary. I mean, that's just the 518 00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:21,520 Speaker 1: truth of it. There are just sometimes where it is 519 00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:24,040 Speaker 1: necessary to do things that are unpopular, and I think 520 00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:26,920 Speaker 1: with these ICE agents identity, that is one of the 521 00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:30,920 Speaker 1: cases they need their identities protected. And yeah, I don't know. 522 00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:34,800 Speaker 1: I do find it personally hilarious that democrats are I 523 00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,760 Speaker 1: think it was Chris Pappis from New Hampshire, whose new 524 00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:40,320 Speaker 1: policy was that they's going to take ICE funding and 525 00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:42,960 Speaker 1: give it to local police. Apparently funding the police is 526 00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:47,080 Speaker 1: popular with Democrats in twenty twenty six. How times have changed, 527 00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:50,120 Speaker 1: Andrew and I will do a better job at trying 528 00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:53,360 Speaker 1: to stop saying sit there. But that's the point. 529 00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:54,640 Speaker 2: I agree though. 530 00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:57,040 Speaker 1: I think that it's really important at this point when 531 00:29:57,040 --> 00:29:58,960 Speaker 1: we have the ICE agents, that we have to sit 532 00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:01,440 Speaker 1: there and work them as much as they can possibly work, 533 00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:04,600 Speaker 1: and have effective policies that make people self deport because 534 00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:08,440 Speaker 1: self deportations is where real numbers are going to excessively grow. 535 00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:11,360 Speaker 1: And I think we should probably do more more raids 536 00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:15,360 Speaker 1: on work sites is that they're and actually and penalize 537 00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:18,240 Speaker 1: employers who knowingly hire illegal immigrants. That's how you're going 538 00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:20,520 Speaker 1: to start changing things in make substantial ways. 539 00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,520 Speaker 2: Anyway, that's the show for today. Thank you guys so much. 540 00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:24,760 Speaker 2: Coming back on Monday. 541 00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:27,200 Speaker 1: I think I have a special guest on Monday, and 542 00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:30,280 Speaker 1: I will see you guys then. If you like this podcast, 543 00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:33,600 Speaker 1: please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, YouTube, 544 00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:35,080 Speaker 1: wherever you get to this podcast. 545 00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:36,920 Speaker 2: Talk to you guys, later have a great weekend,