1 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,400 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the All Thoughts Podcast. 2 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,360 Speaker 1: I'm Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe. Joe. It always feels 3 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:21,200 Speaker 1: to me like it's earning season, Isn't that right? I 4 00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 1: feel like every month it's earning season. It just goes 5 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:27,640 Speaker 1: on forever. I know, it's always earning season. It's always 6 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:30,080 Speaker 1: like about to be Mardi Gras in New Orleans. Like 7 00:00:30,120 --> 00:00:31,920 Speaker 1: there are certain things that I was like, Oh, that's 8 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:34,639 Speaker 1: that's this time of year again, Like certain things it's 9 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:37,360 Speaker 1: always like Carnival in Brazil, and it's like, oh, that's 10 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:39,840 Speaker 1: happening again. And yes, earning season is always right around 11 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 1: the corner. These things that just seem I think that 12 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:43,960 Speaker 1: they feel like they're supposed to be rarer than they 13 00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:46,199 Speaker 1: seem to be. Yeah, they happen four times a year, 14 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:48,720 Speaker 1: but it seems like it's constant. Maybe this is one 15 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 1: reason why we historically haven't done a lot of earnings episodes. 16 00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:56,360 Speaker 1: But I think now is a good moment to actually 17 00:00:56,400 --> 00:00:59,240 Speaker 1: stop and reflect on what we've been seeing from companies 18 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:02,720 Speaker 1: because of course all of this feeds into the big 19 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:06,680 Speaker 1: macro inflation discussion. Well, two things about this is, like, 20 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:11,440 Speaker 1: one is economists should listen to what companies say more totally, 21 00:01:11,520 --> 00:01:14,080 Speaker 1: I feel like we've so there's so many economists and 22 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:16,760 Speaker 1: I love them, but there are so many economists out 23 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:19,480 Speaker 1: there who, you know, like though some trying about the 24 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:22,120 Speaker 1: money supply or the FED or some like the dot 25 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:23,840 Speaker 1: plots and all this stuff, and all that's great and 26 00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 1: I love it and everything, but often, like companies are 27 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:28,959 Speaker 1: just telling you what's going on. And a lot of 28 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:32,840 Speaker 1: my favorite sort of like economics analysis comes from someone 29 00:01:32,880 --> 00:01:34,840 Speaker 1: who's just like, let's listen to the conference call and 30 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:37,280 Speaker 1: hear what management has to say. Right. There is a 31 00:01:37,319 --> 00:01:41,000 Speaker 1: tendency for economists to talk about inflation expectations in the 32 00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:44,440 Speaker 1: sort of abstract sense. But you could just read and 33 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:48,440 Speaker 1: earnings transcript and look at a big food company, for instance, 34 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 1: and see that they're saying, oh, yeah, we're going to 35 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:52,800 Speaker 1: push through some more price increases, and that would be 36 00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 1: a pretty big clue and why. And this also gets 37 00:01:56,200 --> 00:01:58,640 Speaker 1: to and the nice thing about conference calls too is 38 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:02,720 Speaker 1: you know, the analysts represent the interests of investors, right, 39 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:05,280 Speaker 1: and so they're asking the questions that investors want to 40 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 1: know about. And one of the things that we've explored 41 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:10,480 Speaker 1: for years on this show is the degree to which 42 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 1: companies care about investors, and we talked about it a 43 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:18,400 Speaker 1: lot with oils, specifically oil companies for years maximizing drilling 44 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:21,880 Speaker 1: output verse price, then switching post pandemic and so forth. 45 00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 1: So these conference calls give a clue on both sides, 46 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:28,480 Speaker 1: and that help drive corporate behavior totally. So on this 47 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:30,920 Speaker 1: episode we are going to be trying to I guess, 48 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 1: draw that line between the micro and the macro talk 49 00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:36,880 Speaker 1: about earnings and what it means for the wider economy. 50 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:39,079 Speaker 1: And I am very happy to say that we do 51 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:42,120 Speaker 1: have the perfect guest. We are going to be speaking 52 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:46,079 Speaker 1: with Samuel Rines. He is a managing director over at Corbu. 53 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:49,800 Speaker 1: You might recognize his name if you've been subscribed to 54 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:52,680 Speaker 1: the Odd Thoughts newsletter. I've written a little bit about 55 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:55,919 Speaker 1: his work recently, but he's been writing some very good 56 00:02:55,960 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 1: analysis of earnings and specifically the pricing strategy that companies 57 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:04,920 Speaker 1: are undertaking in the current environment. So Sam, thank you 58 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:06,840 Speaker 1: so much for coming on Off Off, He thank you 59 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 1: for having me. So you know I first started reading 60 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 1: your work I guess it was last year, and you've 61 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:18,560 Speaker 1: developed this idea that you call POV. Price over volume 62 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 1: can you walk us through exactly what that is. Sure, 63 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:27,280 Speaker 1: So basically, going back to call it early twenty twenty two, 64 00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:30,440 Speaker 1: it was kind of this realization that something was going 65 00:03:30,480 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 1: on underneath the surface with corporations that was pretty interesting, 66 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 1: and that was they were making the decision that they 67 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 1: didn't really care about losing a little bit of volume 68 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 1: and they really cared about kind of finding how much 69 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 1: price they could push and how much the consumer would 70 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 1: react to it. And the first really interesting example of 71 00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:54,120 Speaker 1: that that we pulled out was Pepsi and Pepsi we 72 00:03:54,160 --> 00:03:56,320 Speaker 1: called it the new PPP. It was what was going 73 00:03:56,360 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 1: to bail investors out after the Russia invasion, and it 74 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 1: was the Pepsi pricing power. Pepsi found that even though 75 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 1: they had about four percent of their revenue exposure to Russia, 76 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 1: they could push price everywhere else and make up for 77 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 1: that volume without any problem. So it's this really interesting 78 00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:18,480 Speaker 1: kind of first tidbit, right corbu we tend to really 79 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 1: focus on what's going on with the geopolitics and try 80 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:23,800 Speaker 1: to drive down into that and figure out how to 81 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 1: kind of play around it. And it was really a revelation, 82 00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:32,520 Speaker 1: at least to me, when Pepsi was pushing double digit pricing. 83 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:36,880 Speaker 1: This is so fascinating. I'm already like blown away because 84 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:39,000 Speaker 1: to me, this opens up a whole new way of 85 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:41,599 Speaker 1: like thinking about some of the questions and tying things together. 86 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:45,560 Speaker 1: But let's stick with pepsi for a second, because when 87 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:49,160 Speaker 1: the invasion of Ukraine happened, were certainly a lot of 88 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 1: people who understood some pretty straightforward ways that that could 89 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 1: be inflationary, right, energy, grain costs, etc. Well, you're saying, 90 00:04:57,760 --> 00:05:01,480 Speaker 1: is there's this other mechanism that happened that you only 91 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:04,120 Speaker 1: would understand. But I started looking at the micro where 92 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:08,320 Speaker 1: a company felt pressure to raise prices elsewhere to compensate 93 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 1: for the loss of sales in one market so that 94 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:15,719 Speaker 1: they can continue to deliver steady results for the investors. Yes, 95 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 1: and it certainly wasn't just Ukraine. Sure, it wasn't just 96 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:22,000 Speaker 1: that they also had you know, they have freedom. Yeah, 97 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:24,720 Speaker 1: there was, sure, there was some that was a factor 98 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:27,840 Speaker 1: in everyone around the world to some extent who was 99 00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:31,960 Speaker 1: a consumer of PepsiCo products was to some extent paying 100 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 1: more to compensate for the lack of revenue and earnings 101 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:38,200 Speaker 1: that they were getting from the Russian market. Oh exactly. 102 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:41,520 Speaker 1: And it was It was pretty immediate. It was not 103 00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:43,680 Speaker 1: something that it was just a subtle pause. It was 104 00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:48,800 Speaker 1: something that was very very well. Question just real quickly 105 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:52,279 Speaker 1: on this. Where did they say, like this, we raised 106 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:54,800 Speaker 1: prices in these markets. How do you know that that's 107 00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:58,240 Speaker 1: the reason? Oh it wasn't They never explicitly stated, okay, right, 108 00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:01,200 Speaker 1: it was they had an excuse to begin raising prices 109 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:04,719 Speaker 1: they had. This is exactly what I wanted to bring 110 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:08,560 Speaker 1: up because like, it does feel like in the environment 111 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:10,240 Speaker 1: of the past three years, you've had a lot of 112 00:06:10,279 --> 00:06:13,960 Speaker 1: supply chain disruptions. It feels like there has been a 113 00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:17,200 Speaker 1: peg for companies to go out and say like, well, 114 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:19,480 Speaker 1: because of this, we need to raise prices. And this 115 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:22,400 Speaker 1: is something Joe that actually came up on our episode 116 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:26,640 Speaker 1: with the Baker. Right, he said explicitly that if something 117 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:29,080 Speaker 1: is going on with, for instance, the price of eggs, 118 00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 1: if there's an avian flu outbreak and it's national news, 119 00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:36,680 Speaker 1: it's an opportunity to increase prices without getting a whole 120 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:40,360 Speaker 1: bunch of pushback. And that is exactly it, right, A 121 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:43,599 Speaker 1: lot of companies had these call it one off or 122 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 1: very very rare excuses and to raise prices and begin 123 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:50,000 Speaker 1: to find how much the consumer would take. And one 124 00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 1: of my favorite examples of this is Wingstop. Right, it 125 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 1: was national news that chicken wings were pricing was going 126 00:06:57,440 --> 00:07:00,280 Speaker 1: through the roof, right, and something like one hundred twenty 127 00:07:00,279 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 1: five percent over a year at one point, and Wingstop 128 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:06,040 Speaker 1: began to push price, push price, push price, and they 129 00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:10,040 Speaker 1: had zero pushback from the consumer. Right. The consumer just 130 00:07:10,200 --> 00:07:12,840 Speaker 1: continued to buy chicken wings. And it's not as though 131 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:16,000 Speaker 1: there are a limited number of places to go buy 132 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:18,960 Speaker 1: a spicy chicken wing. They pushed it and pushed it 133 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:22,000 Speaker 1: and pushed it. And now chicken wing prices have fallen 134 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:26,320 Speaker 1: somewhere around fifty percent from their peak, and Wingstop is 135 00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:29,480 Speaker 1: not exactly stopping pushing their price. In fact, they're saying 136 00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:33,080 Speaker 1: and guiding towards a typical two to three percent type 137 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:36,640 Speaker 1: price increase. So it's a really interesting once you get 138 00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 1: that price push, once you figure out that the consumer 139 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:42,720 Speaker 1: is willing to pay it, that is margin expansive over 140 00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 1: time as you begin to have a normalization in your 141 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:49,600 Speaker 1: input costs. So are there any examples like what other 142 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:53,600 Speaker 1: publicly traded companies also have sell a lot of wings? Oh? 143 00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:57,960 Speaker 1: I'm trying to think, but I guess now they went private. 144 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:00,960 Speaker 1: They did, But I guess what I'm The reason I 145 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:05,440 Speaker 1: ask is because you know, intuitively, one would think that 146 00:08:05,480 --> 00:08:08,520 Speaker 1: if Wingstop is raising prices, some other company could use 147 00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 1: that as an opportunity to gain share. And so in 148 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 1: your reading of these transcripts, why don't we see that 149 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:19,080 Speaker 1: effect to play it? I get it. Wingstop they're a company. 150 00:08:19,080 --> 00:08:21,280 Speaker 1: Why wouldn't they want to push price to see where 151 00:08:21,280 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 1: that breaking point is maximize returns? Why do you not 152 00:08:24,640 --> 00:08:28,040 Speaker 1: see other companies then say, okay, well we're going to 153 00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: try to make it. We'll take a lower margin for 154 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:34,560 Speaker 1: higher volume because they can raise price right alongside of them, 155 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:37,400 Speaker 1: and those have those larger margins. I mean, it's one 156 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:40,280 Speaker 1: of those things with Pepsi, right, Pepsi Coca Cola. You 157 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:44,440 Speaker 1: shouldn't have Pepsi being able to push price in theory, right, 158 00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:47,240 Speaker 1: it should be Pepsi and Coca Cola battle it out 159 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:50,480 Speaker 1: and you have very minimal price increases and they don't 160 00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 1: have the ability to really play catch up with inflation. 161 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:55,800 Speaker 1: And that's simply not the case right now. They're just 162 00:08:55,960 --> 00:08:58,720 Speaker 1: willing to take it. So what did Coca Cola do 163 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:03,319 Speaker 1: when too is raising prices? Raise prices right alongside of 164 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:06,160 Speaker 1: that interesting and took a little volume it. So this 165 00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:08,960 Speaker 1: actually leads nicely to something else I wanted to ask, 166 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:11,439 Speaker 1: which is how much of this is a sort of 167 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:16,600 Speaker 1: food consumer good story versus other types of manufactured goods, 168 00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:18,800 Speaker 1: because certainly reading your research, you know there's a lot 169 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:22,920 Speaker 1: of talk about pepsi, wingstops, Smuckers, Texas Roadhouse, which is 170 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 1: one of my favorite today. I'm sorry, I'm sorry. Um, 171 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 1: actually neither have I for once. Um, okay, So how 172 00:09:30,720 --> 00:09:34,080 Speaker 1: much of this is about food versus other sectors? Oh, 173 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:36,760 Speaker 1: it's it's really interesting. So I kind of divide it 174 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:40,719 Speaker 1: into three categories, good services and leisure and just to 175 00:09:40,800 --> 00:09:43,640 Speaker 1: kind of break it up into a kind of a 176 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:46,520 Speaker 1: framework to work around it. And so if you look 177 00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:49,959 Speaker 1: at services like Texas Roadhouse, again that's that's kind of food. 178 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 1: But you know, they're raising menu prices, they are also 179 00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:57,400 Speaker 1: guiding to higher wages. Same with cracker barrel, kind of 180 00:09:57,400 --> 00:10:02,079 Speaker 1: the Middle America businesses are raising their menu prices and 181 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:04,640 Speaker 1: they're guiding to five to six percent wage games. And 182 00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:07,319 Speaker 1: I mean they're pretty explicit about it. So it's an 183 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:09,520 Speaker 1: it's you know, it's kind of price over volume. With 184 00:10:09,520 --> 00:10:13,480 Speaker 1: the side of wages in the interest of journalistic integrity, 185 00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 1: Tracy just I bead me during this conversation, reminded me 186 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 1: I did have some turkey jobs. Joe is literally sitting 187 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:24,280 Speaker 1: there surrounded by empty jerky. I said that I haven't 188 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:26,760 Speaker 1: like even like a proper meal today. I am not 189 00:10:26,840 --> 00:10:29,120 Speaker 1: on a completely youngcayed stomach. I do not want to 190 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:32,360 Speaker 1: deceive the listeners, and so I wanted to issue a 191 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 1: correction right there. Correction where were we? Yeah, well, on 192 00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:39,319 Speaker 1: the good side, just really quickly, because it's interesting. So 193 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:44,040 Speaker 1: there's this smaller company, Donaldson, that does filtration systems. They 194 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:46,960 Speaker 1: guided to a two to six percent revenue game in 195 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:50,959 Speaker 1: the coming year, and then in the fine print said 196 00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 1: with six percent effective pricing. Wow, so you know you 197 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:56,400 Speaker 1: can kind of do the math there and figure out 198 00:10:56,480 --> 00:10:59,719 Speaker 1: that that's zero percent volume at the top end of 199 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 1: the guy. I love the flow of this conversation because again, 200 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:06,199 Speaker 1: it leads very naturally into my next question. But why 201 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:11,200 Speaker 1: aren't consumers pushing back well to Donaldson, I mean for Donald's. 202 00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:14,280 Speaker 1: And it's not just consumers, right, it's the corporations that 203 00:11:14,320 --> 00:11:17,160 Speaker 1: buy the filtration customers that buy their feel short stuff. 204 00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 1: Why aren't they pushing back. It's a combination of wage 205 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:25,040 Speaker 1: gains and that you're feeling a little bit wealthier right 206 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:30,440 Speaker 1: this This is a world where inflation doesn't feel necessarily 207 00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 1: as forced on the consumer. And the consumer, you know, 208 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:36,959 Speaker 1: there's not a whole lot of options when you're trying 209 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:38,880 Speaker 1: to figure out whether you're buying PEPs or your coke 210 00:11:39,160 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 1: or Freedo's or lays. Mean, it's it's it's a strange thing. 211 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:45,680 Speaker 1: But you look at you look at the wage gains 212 00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:48,280 Speaker 1: coming through the system right now, and the wage gains 213 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:52,200 Speaker 1: make people feel a lot wealthier, particularly you know, social 214 00:11:52,240 --> 00:11:56,320 Speaker 1: Security benefits rocketed in January. You know, people are feeling 215 00:11:56,400 --> 00:12:00,320 Speaker 1: much wealthier, particularly in the lower deathsiles of income. I mean, 216 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:04,079 Speaker 1: I fully admit to being in a like total a 217 00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:07,480 Speaker 1: certain economic bubble here living in New York City. But 218 00:12:07,760 --> 00:12:12,680 Speaker 1: it is a very frequent conversation where people like complain, 219 00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:16,160 Speaker 1: I was like a restaurant prices are crazy these days, etc. 220 00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:20,080 Speaker 1: Yet also people are still going out to eat, and 221 00:12:20,080 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 1: could people complain about how hard it is to get 222 00:12:22,520 --> 00:12:24,840 Speaker 1: it get a meal or get a table or reservation 223 00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 1: or restaurant or order delivery. It's like, oh I gotta 224 00:12:27,520 --> 00:12:30,280 Speaker 1: I gotta stop ordering like you know, uber eats or 225 00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:33,600 Speaker 1: grub hub or whatever. It's just insane and I'm paying 226 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:36,560 Speaker 1: fifty five dollars all in fees for two dozen chicken 227 00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:38,880 Speaker 1: wings and then people keep doing it. This makes me 228 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 1: think also, like how much of this this is a 229 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:44,480 Speaker 1: speculative question that's hard to answer, but how much of 230 00:12:44,520 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 1: it is just people are traumatized by a year of lockdowns. 231 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:50,199 Speaker 1: We all want to get out and live our lives. 232 00:12:50,679 --> 00:12:54,720 Speaker 1: Maybe maybe we don't save a lot for the next 233 00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:56,520 Speaker 1: couple of years, but we finally get to go out. 234 00:12:56,559 --> 00:12:59,520 Speaker 1: We get to book travel, go on cruises, eat nice 235 00:12:59,559 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 1: meals at restaurants. Tracy, can I tell you some bad news? Okay, 236 00:13:03,640 --> 00:13:06,160 Speaker 1: we're like coming around three years of this. Yeah, okay, 237 00:13:06,160 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 1: but I was in yeah, yeah, No, I know the 238 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 1: lockdowns are over, but it should have been a very 239 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:14,320 Speaker 1: long year. All right, fine, But I do think there 240 00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:19,160 Speaker 1: is a sort of psychological explanation here as well. Yeah, 241 00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:22,360 Speaker 1: I mean this is speculation, but what COVID did for 242 00:13:22,400 --> 00:13:24,719 Speaker 1: a lot of people, including myself, was it shortened the 243 00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:27,320 Speaker 1: time horizon have spent. Right, you know, the life cycle 244 00:13:27,360 --> 00:13:31,080 Speaker 1: model began to put some volatility into that and you 245 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 1: began to put some volatility into whether or not you 246 00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:35,760 Speaker 1: were going to be able to do the things you loved. Right, 247 00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:38,800 Speaker 1: and kind of going back to this you know, services question. 248 00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:41,880 Speaker 1: When you look at rev par for the major hotels, 249 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:46,160 Speaker 1: occupancy really isn't back to twenty nineteen levels yet, but 250 00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:48,679 Speaker 1: the average amount of money that they're making off the 251 00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:53,200 Speaker 1: room has skyrocketed back well above twenty nineteen levels. So again, 252 00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:57,520 Speaker 1: price over volume, there's a there's a certain level that 253 00:13:57,600 --> 00:14:00,880 Speaker 1: there's you know, a price push on the consumer and 254 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 1: the consumer you know, yes, occupancy levels are going higher, 255 00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:08,680 Speaker 1: but the average room rate is going much higher. Same 256 00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:11,839 Speaker 1: with cruises, right, Cruise cruise capacities aren't back to twenty 257 00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:15,680 Speaker 1: nineteen levels, but pricing is well above. Norwegian came out 258 00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 1: with a really interesting earnings report recently where they said, hey, 259 00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:23,400 Speaker 1: you know, bookings are really really good and they're well 260 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:27,120 Speaker 1: above twenty nineteen pricing levels. It's it's just across the 261 00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:31,400 Speaker 1: board on the pricing front. So from a cost perspective, 262 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:35,400 Speaker 1: a typical major national hotel chain are a Norwegian at 263 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:40,320 Speaker 1: this point? Are they seeing much cost inflation? Hotels? Someone 264 00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 1: On the labor front, that's really where they're seeing their 265 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:47,160 Speaker 1: costs begin to move higher on the cruise front, bunker fuel. 266 00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:51,640 Speaker 1: But overall, these are they're expanding margins when they when 267 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:54,400 Speaker 1: they push through these prices despite the fact that like 268 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:57,280 Speaker 1: they haven't even gotten back to volume levels. These are 269 00:14:57,440 --> 00:15:01,480 Speaker 1: these are beyond what their costs are, right correct, Yeah, Okay, 270 00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:03,800 Speaker 1: that's very easy to see. That's just that's just and 271 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:08,000 Speaker 1: over time it's going to be very very good for them. Sam, 272 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:12,080 Speaker 1: you mentioned something about customers having limited choices, for instance, 273 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:15,840 Speaker 1: coke versus pepsi, which is not exactly true, but you know, 274 00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:19,440 Speaker 1: point taken, and this is an issue that has come 275 00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:22,640 Speaker 1: up a lot, this idea of corporate concentration and that 276 00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:26,680 Speaker 1: as the marketplace is dominated by bigger companies, bigger and 277 00:15:26,760 --> 00:15:30,440 Speaker 1: fewer companies, they have more pricing power. Is that something 278 00:15:30,480 --> 00:15:33,480 Speaker 1: else that's playing a role. It's certainly playing a role 279 00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 1: to a degree. It's because you know, if you see 280 00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:40,280 Speaker 1: pepsi racing price, you have call it permission to go 281 00:15:40,440 --> 00:15:42,960 Speaker 1: raise price. And it wasn't just Coca Cola that raised price, 282 00:15:43,000 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 1: it was Doctor Pepper Snapple. They took price over volume. 283 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:50,000 Speaker 1: And you know, you know, and now Kurig is in 284 00:15:50,040 --> 00:15:52,640 Speaker 1: there as well, but you know Kurig took price and 285 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:55,880 Speaker 1: Smuckers on Folders took price. You know, those are the 286 00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:57,160 Speaker 1: kind of you know, you can kind of think of 287 00:15:57,160 --> 00:16:16,600 Speaker 1: that as coffee at home. Can you talk a little 288 00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:20,680 Speaker 1: bit about the questions that are being asked on these calls, 289 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:23,480 Speaker 1: because presumably, right an analyst wants to be able to 290 00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:25,760 Speaker 1: go back and you know, sort of like you know, 291 00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 1: the information is ultimately the information they're trying to extracts 292 00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:32,800 Speaker 1: the information that the holders of stock and these companies want. 293 00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:36,840 Speaker 1: What are what are analysts asking and or sort of 294 00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:41,200 Speaker 1: implicitly telling management about what investors demand these days? Sure, 295 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:44,080 Speaker 1: so there was an interesting question. This was a couple 296 00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:46,560 Speaker 1: of quarters ago on the Wings on a wingstop call 297 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:50,200 Speaker 1: where one of the analysts asked, if wing prices fall, 298 00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:51,840 Speaker 1: what are you going to do? Are you going to 299 00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:54,600 Speaker 1: go after ball? Are you going to go back after volume? 300 00:16:54,720 --> 00:16:58,680 Speaker 1: Market share? And the I believe it was the CEO 301 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:02,840 Speaker 1: responded with, no, this is a you can think of 302 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:07,199 Speaker 1: this as a level set on pricing, and we believe 303 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:12,600 Speaker 1: that our brand can dictate that type of pricing going forward. 304 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:15,560 Speaker 1: That to me was very indicative of what was going 305 00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 1: to happen and they followed through with it, wing prices 306 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:20,160 Speaker 1: fell and they said, now we're still going to create 307 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:22,520 Speaker 1: prices a little bit higher here margins are going to 308 00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:25,600 Speaker 1: go higher. Another interesting comment, and this kind of goes 309 00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:29,240 Speaker 1: to where I think a lot of things are going 310 00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:31,639 Speaker 1: to flow on the price over volume front and the 311 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:36,480 Speaker 1: coming quarters. There was a very interesting call with a 312 00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:39,479 Speaker 1: shipping company that for some reason I'm spacing on at 313 00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:43,240 Speaker 1: the moment, but management had said, listen Q one, Q two, 314 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:45,400 Speaker 1: it's going to be a pretty difficult time for us. 315 00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:48,040 Speaker 1: But looking at the end of Q two and into 316 00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:51,880 Speaker 1: Q three, we see an inventory cycle beginning to emerge again. 317 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:55,680 Speaker 1: And so when you're raising prices if you're PEPSI that said, 318 00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:57,480 Speaker 1: we're going to raise a little bit of price. If 319 00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:00,480 Speaker 1: you're Coca Cola, if you're any of these companies that 320 00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:04,359 Speaker 1: have seen Kimberly Clark that have seen those inventory levels 321 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:08,760 Speaker 1: at the end retailer creep lower, you're looking at the 322 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:11,520 Speaker 1: potential for it not only higher pricing going into the 323 00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:13,560 Speaker 1: back half of the year, but also a restock on 324 00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:17,280 Speaker 1: the volume front. So it's a really interesting one. So 325 00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:20,680 Speaker 1: the big inventory glut that a lot of people were predicting, 326 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:24,320 Speaker 1: you don't see evidence of that in the current earnings results. 327 00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:29,520 Speaker 1: So there's some inventory glut, particularly with companies like Target. Target, 328 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:32,359 Speaker 1: it's a POV world. I don't know where they're living 329 00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:35,760 Speaker 1: right now. I mean when Walmart is pushing price over 330 00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:41,280 Speaker 1: ticket on their tickets and having lower foot traffic, that 331 00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:45,639 Speaker 1: to me is indicative of something being very wrong with Target. 332 00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:48,880 Speaker 1: And then you go to something you know you kind 333 00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 1: of want to check to be clear, because Target is 334 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:54,320 Speaker 1: not raising prices right, Targets not raising prices, and they're 335 00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:58,159 Speaker 1: not getting the mixshift that Walmart might be might be 336 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:00,080 Speaker 1: seeing in a meaningful way. They don't have traffic and 337 00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:03,800 Speaker 1: they don't have pricing way. But this is interesting because 338 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:07,119 Speaker 1: then you get Contour, which owns Lee and Wrangler, Right, Okay, 339 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 1: if you think it's something to do with clothing, if 340 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:11,680 Speaker 1: you think it's something to do with merchandising, I mean 341 00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:14,040 Speaker 1: Wrangler and Lee put up a seven percent revenue game 342 00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:17,920 Speaker 1: for the quarter. It's it's a really interesting kind of 343 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:20,440 Speaker 1: And then there's Dollar Tree. I mean, dollar Tree had 344 00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:24,480 Speaker 1: lower number of transactions at a higher price. I'm wearing 345 00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:27,680 Speaker 1: Wranglers right now, by the way, M sorry, I want 346 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:29,920 Speaker 1: I need to actually two things. I feel like this 347 00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:33,000 Speaker 1: is the point to interject and point out that an 348 00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:36,119 Speaker 1: odd lots regular guest as Abella Vapor is out with 349 00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:38,600 Speaker 1: like a new paper on inflation, and she talks a 350 00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:41,720 Speaker 1: lot about some of these exact same things. Everyone should 351 00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:45,760 Speaker 1: go read it, including Also there was a PepsiCo call 352 00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:48,879 Speaker 1: that she cites the same thing where the Andless were like, 353 00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:51,159 Speaker 1: but you're not going to go back to like cutting 354 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:53,119 Speaker 1: cutting prices, right Like at the end of all this, 355 00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:55,879 Speaker 1: are they our price is gonna like mellow out or 356 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:57,919 Speaker 1: you're gonna go low in the management you know, the 357 00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:00,639 Speaker 1: way they phrased it, according to her is like, because 358 00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 1: we are a very innovative company, we do not feel 359 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:06,040 Speaker 1: like we're going to have to compete on price. Yeah, 360 00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:10,199 Speaker 1: on Walmart target specifically, can you talk about like, you know, 361 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:13,520 Speaker 1: Walmart is probably pretty great proxy for aspect. What is 362 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:16,680 Speaker 1: Walmart doing specifically? What is their strategy and how much 363 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:20,959 Speaker 1: does it deviate from the everyday low prices which I 364 00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:24,240 Speaker 1: sort of thought of as Walmart's calling card for the 365 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:28,280 Speaker 1: last thirty years or whatever. Yeah, what is Walmart's strategy? 366 00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:31,000 Speaker 1: Walmart strategy, it's being at a lower price point, then 367 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:36,600 Speaker 1: call it target and the interesting part there is that 368 00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:40,720 Speaker 1: there's they have a significant grocery business, which is also meaningful, 369 00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:42,960 Speaker 1: and they've done a very good job on that front, 370 00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:47,720 Speaker 1: and that's where a significant amount of their price gains 371 00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:50,240 Speaker 1: are happening. Right. They don't have a significant amount of 372 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:53,879 Speaker 1: traffic going up, but they do have a significant amount 373 00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:55,480 Speaker 1: of pricing coming through the system, and a lot of 374 00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:59,600 Speaker 1: that is food inflation. And Target does have grocery at 375 00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:02,400 Speaker 1: least some of them do, but they simply haven't seen 376 00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:06,679 Speaker 1: the consumer going there to shop for groceries. And you know, 377 00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:09,240 Speaker 1: Kroger came out and you know they're they're doing well 378 00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:10,960 Speaker 1: on the grocery front, and so it's it's very much 379 00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:17,360 Speaker 1: a grocery and higher turnover type world which Walmart dominates 380 00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:22,160 Speaker 1: over Target. So broadly, POV is intact consumers are not 381 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:24,920 Speaker 1: yet really pushing back against it, but maybe on the 382 00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:29,720 Speaker 1: margins we've seen some adaptation, so I know, I think 383 00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:32,399 Speaker 1: in like the recent minutes, they were talking a little 384 00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:35,879 Speaker 1: bit about consumers maybe changing their preferences. And then we 385 00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:41,720 Speaker 1: also have this explosion of private label goods, so companies 386 00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:46,200 Speaker 1: like Walmart selling their own brand of groceries at lower 387 00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:49,440 Speaker 1: price points than say I don't know Smuckers or Craft 388 00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:53,680 Speaker 1: or whatever. To what degree could that start to impact 389 00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:58,919 Speaker 1: the POV strategy. Private label is to a significant degree 390 00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:04,040 Speaker 1: part of POV right. It gives the consumer the second option. 391 00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:08,920 Speaker 1: And when you begin to see Kroger I think their 392 00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:12,000 Speaker 1: their own brand, the hour brands was plus ten percent 393 00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:15,720 Speaker 1: in the latest quarter, you are beginning to see private 394 00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:19,160 Speaker 1: label take some share, but it's not taking enough share 395 00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:24,320 Speaker 1: to matter against the pricing power kind of to your 396 00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:29,159 Speaker 1: to your point on Smuckers, I mean, they guided to 397 00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:34,760 Speaker 1: six percent net sales, eight percent organic, and then in 398 00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:39,080 Speaker 1: the fine print said, listen, we understand that there's going 399 00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:42,400 Speaker 1: to be some volume down, so we're it's going that's 400 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:45,200 Speaker 1: going to be all price. And that was for twenty 401 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 1: twenty three. Wait, sorry, explained that last part again. What 402 00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:51,159 Speaker 1: was so this was Smuckers, Okay, right, So it's like 403 00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,679 Speaker 1: Jeff peanut Butter, that type of deal, you know. And 404 00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:56,760 Speaker 1: what's interesting about them is they said six percent net 405 00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:59,840 Speaker 1: sales growth, eight percent organic, all of that's going to 406 00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:02,600 Speaker 1: be pricing, and we understand that there will be an 407 00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:05,320 Speaker 1: elasticity on the volume front. So if you get what 408 00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:07,080 Speaker 1: they're willing to take that because they if they could, 409 00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:10,560 Speaker 1: If they could push eight percent price increase and only 410 00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:13,600 Speaker 1: a two percent volume did increase, that's a good trade. 411 00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:15,879 Speaker 1: It's a great trade. How does that How does that 412 00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:20,240 Speaker 1: feed into wages? Because I imagine if POV is a 413 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:24,000 Speaker 1: dominant strategy and you're maybe producing less but selling it 414 00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:27,240 Speaker 1: for more than maybe you cut you start to cut 415 00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:30,119 Speaker 1: back on labor expenses, or maybe you know you have 416 00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:33,480 Speaker 1: a slightly smaller workforce and you're paying them slightly more. 417 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:35,760 Speaker 1: I don't know. Yeah, it seems like there's a lot 418 00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:37,879 Speaker 1: of moving parts there. There's a lot of moving parts. 419 00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:41,600 Speaker 1: I would point to Walmart going to fourteen dollars, right, 420 00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:44,160 Speaker 1: that's that's basically the minimum wage of the US being 421 00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:47,240 Speaker 1: raised to fourteen dollars. I mean, it's it's the starting 422 00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:50,480 Speaker 1: wages now fourteen and there'll be some ketch up there 423 00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:54,160 Speaker 1: and Lows had to invest in their frontline workers heavily. 424 00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:59,359 Speaker 1: Home Depot did as well. Places like there's Tractors Supply, 425 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:03,679 Speaker 1: which which is one of the most interesting retailers on 426 00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:05,680 Speaker 1: the plane. Tell us why you know what I've actually 427 00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:08,120 Speaker 1: in my mind and the backlog, I've like we should 428 00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:11,320 Speaker 1: do a tractor Supply episode because that's one of those 429 00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:14,119 Speaker 1: names that probably a lot of people don't know that company, 430 00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:16,560 Speaker 1: but I think like the long term stock chart on 431 00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:18,359 Speaker 1: that is like insane, right, it's like one of the 432 00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:20,960 Speaker 1: big sac winners of the last decade, or it's it's 433 00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:23,280 Speaker 1: been a phenomenal secular winner. Can we take a minute 434 00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:25,919 Speaker 1: to just have like a little one minute discuss what 435 00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:29,200 Speaker 1: is traction? So you know they sell live chickens there, 436 00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:31,439 Speaker 1: or at least the one close to meet us. So 437 00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:34,679 Speaker 1: in nineteen ninety seven this was a one dollar stock 438 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:36,640 Speaker 1: and now it's a two hundred and twenty six stocks 439 00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:39,359 Speaker 1: So nice, nice couple of nice three decades. But what 440 00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:41,400 Speaker 1: is the story there? So the story there is well, 441 00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:43,639 Speaker 1: I mean from nineteen eighty seven, it's been store growth. 442 00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:47,680 Speaker 1: It's a phenomenal management team. Listening to the listening to 443 00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:52,080 Speaker 1: those calls, reading the transcripts, it's it's simply a phenomenal 444 00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:53,960 Speaker 1: management team. And what they you know, what they sell 445 00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:57,560 Speaker 1: are everything from grain and things that you grain to 446 00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:02,960 Speaker 1: feed animals, different farm tool equipment. Hey, baby checks, we 447 00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:05,320 Speaker 1: gotta do a tractor. You know. Who we should have on, Tracy? 448 00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:07,600 Speaker 1: I thought that would be good who we've had on 449 00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:11,920 Speaker 1: to talk about tobacco in the tempt Oh yeah, he'd 450 00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:15,600 Speaker 1: be great. He knows all the real American company like anyway, Sorry, 451 00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:19,960 Speaker 1: keep going, keep going. But Tractor Supply one pace of 452 00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:23,280 Speaker 1: fair wage and has invested all along with their employees, 453 00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:27,720 Speaker 1: and two has had spectacular same store sales growth through 454 00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:30,480 Speaker 1: the inflation. Right, they can pass inflation on. Right. It's 455 00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:34,080 Speaker 1: known to farmers that there's inflation, and people communities that 456 00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 1: there's inflation, and farmers are doing in rural communities are 457 00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:40,760 Speaker 1: doing rather well in this environment. I mean. One of 458 00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:42,680 Speaker 1: the one of the ways I will know price over 459 00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:47,800 Speaker 1: volume is breaking is when Bucky's stops advertising that the 460 00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:52,639 Speaker 1: its an assistant general manager in at a very large 461 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:55,160 Speaker 1: gasoline station can make two hundred and twenty five thousand 462 00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:57,920 Speaker 1: dollars a year plus benefits. Is that true? It's a 463 00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:00,520 Speaker 1: sign that sits out in front of every Buckey store 464 00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:03,240 Speaker 1: I've been too over the last two That's not I 465 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:07,159 Speaker 1: But I'll just say both of my kids, one of 466 00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:10,960 Speaker 1: their first ever like diaper changes was in a Buckey's bathroom, 467 00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:14,440 Speaker 1: and they're famously clean, and so I have a very 468 00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:20,040 Speaker 1: big affinity Torque. These are odd lots tips change your 469 00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:23,879 Speaker 1: kids diapers at a bucket for lower prices. They do 470 00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:26,920 Speaker 1: have the cleanest bathrooms in the world, and they're that's 471 00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:28,800 Speaker 1: like their calling card, Like everyone knows you get a 472 00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:32,479 Speaker 1: really clean bathroom in bucket. Sam, you actually mentioned something 473 00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:34,639 Speaker 1: that I wanted to ask you, which is what would 474 00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:38,520 Speaker 1: make you start to think or suspect that the POV 475 00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:43,080 Speaker 1: strategy is starting to fall apart. Sure, so, kind of 476 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,120 Speaker 1: going back to the way that I break it down 477 00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:48,280 Speaker 1: into good services and leisure, I would like to see 478 00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:52,639 Speaker 1: leisure break first, right, that's really when when people stop 479 00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:57,240 Speaker 1: spending the incremental money on a very expensive Norwegian cruise 480 00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:01,399 Speaker 1: or more expensive airline tickets. When that begins to break down, 481 00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:05,119 Speaker 1: I think you begin to have at least a signal 482 00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:07,720 Speaker 1: that the consumer is no longer able to take those 483 00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:12,479 Speaker 1: price increases, and leisure comes first. Services, second, goods last. Right, 484 00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:14,800 Speaker 1: you have to buy peanut butter, at least I do, 485 00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:18,119 Speaker 1: or my daughter will have a problem. But you have 486 00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:22,320 Speaker 1: to buy those staples. So that's the called the cadence 487 00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:27,040 Speaker 1: of POV that I'm looking for another rural stock. I'm 488 00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,119 Speaker 1: a big fan of looking at Middle America as a 489 00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:33,119 Speaker 1: signal for how the economy's doing. Is Player's Industries. You know, 490 00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:37,320 Speaker 1: they make snowmobiles, snowmobiles in side by sides, And one 491 00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:39,679 Speaker 1: of the things that they have said is where you know, 492 00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:43,240 Speaker 1: we're seeing two things. One, we're seeing volumes not necessarily 493 00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:47,320 Speaker 1: be that great, but we are seeing pricing go up, right, 494 00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:50,760 Speaker 1: So they're pushing price, and that's that's working on rural 495 00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:55,440 Speaker 1: America pretty steadily. So I want to see things like 496 00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:59,119 Speaker 1: that begin to no longer happen. And when that begins 497 00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:02,240 Speaker 1: to break down, that's kind of the first signal that 498 00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:05,760 Speaker 1: the consumers no longer able to take the pricing on, 499 00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:09,439 Speaker 1: you know, going out to Cracker Barrel or going to 500 00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:14,119 Speaker 1: Texas Roadhouse Olive Garden and they're expensive lettuce. That was 501 00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:17,040 Speaker 1: actually one of the best comments I heard first of all. 502 00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:19,880 Speaker 1: That lettuce was a I think it was a two 503 00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:23,320 Speaker 1: point five million dollar headwind wow on the cost because 504 00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:26,360 Speaker 1: they have unlimited soup and salad and lettuce is really expensive. Wait, 505 00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:29,320 Speaker 1: Olive Garden does Yeah, do you remember the famous starboard 506 00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:33,000 Speaker 1: and they're like they're like put some salt in the 507 00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:37,359 Speaker 1: water and pulled up with the unlimited red sticks. Didn't 508 00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:40,440 Speaker 1: you write a bag like a ripos to that that 509 00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:44,360 Speaker 1: was a great that was just like some amazing content. Wait, 510 00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:47,080 Speaker 1: so so you were talking Sam, you were talking about 511 00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:51,080 Speaker 1: the cadence of people pushing back against um price. And 512 00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:54,400 Speaker 1: so I'm assuming if people start to push back first 513 00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:58,320 Speaker 1: against leisure activities and then maybe you know, non essential 514 00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:02,240 Speaker 1: goods like a snowmobile, would that be like a signal 515 00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:06,640 Speaker 1: or a clue that maybe we're heading towards a soft landing. Well, 516 00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:10,720 Speaker 1: that depends how the FED reacts, right, because it's going 517 00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:15,680 Speaker 1: to be very difficult in my mind for the FOMC 518 00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:18,600 Speaker 1: to get off of we call it twenty five's for 519 00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:24,240 Speaker 1: life until they begin to actually see corporations decelerate pricing. 520 00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:27,120 Speaker 1: And when Smucker says for twenty twenty three it's eight percent, 521 00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:30,760 Speaker 1: that is not good for the f o MC. When 522 00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:33,920 Speaker 1: Cracker barrels saying wage increases are five to six percent, 523 00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:37,320 Speaker 1: that's not good for the FOMC. You know, one is 524 00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:39,840 Speaker 1: a consumer good and one is Middle America getting a 525 00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:44,200 Speaker 1: pay raise. When Walmart's raising their minimum wage, again, that's 526 00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:46,680 Speaker 1: a pretty big deal when it comes to consumption on 527 00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:50,360 Speaker 1: the lower end. So do I think it pushes us 528 00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:54,960 Speaker 1: to closer to a soft discre landing. I would argue 529 00:29:55,160 --> 00:30:00,520 Speaker 1: it is going to be rather easy to acts denly 530 00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:06,120 Speaker 1: read too much into CPI decelerating simply because you're going 531 00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:09,360 Speaker 1: to have used autos, which I don't know, you don't consume. 532 00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:11,800 Speaker 1: You used auto all the time, you do consume groceries 533 00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:15,040 Speaker 1: all the time. It's going to be easy to read 534 00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:17,640 Speaker 1: in a little too much to CPI and PC readings 535 00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:21,080 Speaker 1: over the next few months and be really excited that 536 00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:23,800 Speaker 1: maybe the FED doesn't have to go to five fifty five, 537 00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:27,160 Speaker 1: and then all of a sudden get caught a little 538 00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:32,440 Speaker 1: off guard when corporations continue to push pricing trying to 539 00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:52,600 Speaker 1: find the elasticity on their merchant. I have just like 540 00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:54,960 Speaker 1: two more questions, but you know, I just I wonder. 541 00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:58,640 Speaker 1: You know, we don't get conference call transcripts obviously for 542 00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:02,880 Speaker 1: privately held companies, but you know, it does seem as 543 00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:06,960 Speaker 1: though there are differences in how companies that have to 544 00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:10,600 Speaker 1: be accountable to shareholders every quarter and answer all street 545 00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:14,400 Speaker 1: analyst questions every quarter behave We did an episode recently 546 00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:17,960 Speaker 1: with an investor in Arizona Land, and he was saying 547 00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:22,360 Speaker 1: that the privately held homebuilders feel more comfortable holding unused 548 00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:25,480 Speaker 1: land on their balance sheets than the publicly held ones 549 00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:27,520 Speaker 1: that have to like again answer it's like, why you're 550 00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:30,600 Speaker 1: holding so much land? Don't you remember the Great Financial Crisis. 551 00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:33,120 Speaker 1: I think there have been stories in the oil patch 552 00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:36,120 Speaker 1: as well where some of the privately held drillers are 553 00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:40,360 Speaker 1: a little bit more comfortable expanding in part because you know, again, 554 00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:43,080 Speaker 1: and this is like a Jeff Curry Goldman thing, the 555 00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:47,920 Speaker 1: exact profitability over volume, the end of volumetric expansion is 556 00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:50,520 Speaker 1: in something investors want to see. Do you have any 557 00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:53,400 Speaker 1: reason to believe that some of these dynamics that you 558 00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:57,560 Speaker 1: describe may be different and that maybe some privately held 559 00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:01,320 Speaker 1: companies see an opportunity for view to take advantage of 560 00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:07,240 Speaker 1: when they're publicly traded counterparts are doing pov oh trying 561 00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:10,000 Speaker 1: to think of a good example of that, and you know, 562 00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:16,040 Speaker 1: call it the oil patch being in Houston and saying 563 00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:19,360 Speaker 1: I talked to a significant number of these smaller operators. 564 00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:23,200 Speaker 1: It's kind of two things are playing into it. One, 565 00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:27,600 Speaker 1: they're feeling cost pressures that are far higher than they're 566 00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:33,120 Speaker 1: publicly traded peers, So their ability to do volume over 567 00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:37,880 Speaker 1: price is very very limited at the moment, because you know, 568 00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:43,200 Speaker 1: they're publicly traded piers have far more powered power and scale. 569 00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:49,320 Speaker 1: It's it's somewhat different for the private frackers. They're they're 570 00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:53,400 Speaker 1: doing a little bit more volume on call it the margin, 571 00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:57,000 Speaker 1: but not much and so it's it's a much different 572 00:32:57,160 --> 00:32:59,320 Speaker 1: i would say mentality in the oil patch even with 573 00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:01,760 Speaker 1: the private but the private guys it's much more of 574 00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:05,720 Speaker 1: a cost issue than it is a an attempt to 575 00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:08,600 Speaker 1: do the volume. I'm sure they would. I mean, it's 576 00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:12,440 Speaker 1: this is this is Texas right. Drill drill, drill. It's 577 00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:17,360 Speaker 1: pretty straightforward. When it comes to consumer goods, it's it's 578 00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:23,680 Speaker 1: difficult to find any that call it have reliable size. Yeah, 579 00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:24,920 Speaker 1: you know, you can kind of look at some of 580 00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:28,120 Speaker 1: the some of the companies that are growing pretty quickly 581 00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:30,520 Speaker 1: in the private markets, but it's difficult to parse out 582 00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:33,760 Speaker 1: exactly whether they're going for volume or if it's just 583 00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:37,640 Speaker 1: the trend is their friend? And I just have one 584 00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:40,800 Speaker 1: last question, but it sort of dawned on me. You know, 585 00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:45,840 Speaker 1: did we did Odd Lodge help contribute to just thinking 586 00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:48,440 Speaker 1: about that? With all our supply chain acts give you 587 00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:52,040 Speaker 1: for like, the real story is that companies use news 588 00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:57,280 Speaker 1: about disruptions, about avium, flu about ports, about semiconductor shortages 589 00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:02,960 Speaker 1: about wings chicken prices as excuses to raise prices rather 590 00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:05,720 Speaker 1: than like real like they're just like, okay, we spent 591 00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:07,600 Speaker 1: three years talking about all these things, and then the 592 00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:10,120 Speaker 1: company is like, thank you lots, please keep doing stories 593 00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:12,560 Speaker 1: about disruptions so that we can do the project power, 594 00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:14,520 Speaker 1: Like is it our Is it all our fault? I 595 00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:18,520 Speaker 1: wouldn't say it's all I mean there's there's blame to 596 00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:21,360 Speaker 1: go around. But there is an interesting part of that 597 00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:23,840 Speaker 1: to that egg story. You know, going into Christmas, the 598 00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:26,360 Speaker 1: USDA does this weird It does a whole bunch of 599 00:34:26,400 --> 00:34:28,960 Speaker 1: weird stuff. But one of the best reports out there 600 00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:33,480 Speaker 1: was a post Christmas one where it was the largest 601 00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:38,520 Speaker 1: they call it disappearing of eggs on record that they 602 00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:41,880 Speaker 1: had done per person or per household. I think it 603 00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:44,719 Speaker 1: was eight eggs per household during Christmas. So even with 604 00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:48,759 Speaker 1: the higher pricing, volumes were up. So it's that's just 605 00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:50,640 Speaker 1: an interesting side note, and I think a lot of 606 00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:53,400 Speaker 1: it kind of going back to one Tracy's points earlier 607 00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:57,200 Speaker 1: was we hadn't really been able to get reliably together 608 00:34:57,239 --> 00:35:01,440 Speaker 1: for Christmas. Yeah, you know, Kron was you know, a 609 00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:04,319 Speaker 1: year ago, so we hadn't been reliably able to get 610 00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:08,840 Speaker 1: together for Christmas, so we went big on baking this 611 00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:12,640 Speaker 1: time around. We were excited to be together again. Tracy baked, 612 00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:17,080 Speaker 1: I did. I baked cookies, sugar cookies. Oh my god, 613 00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:19,840 Speaker 1: they took me forever. I'm sorry. I have one more question, 614 00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:23,120 Speaker 1: in an attempt to deflect some of the blame away 615 00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:26,719 Speaker 1: from our thoughts. What are companies actually doing with the 616 00:35:26,760 --> 00:35:30,080 Speaker 1: additional money? Is it actually going to pay off higher 617 00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:34,800 Speaker 1: input costs and maybe some wage raises like we've been discussing, 618 00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:37,920 Speaker 1: or is it being returned to shareholders or investment like 619 00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:40,719 Speaker 1: what are you seeing all of the above? It is. 620 00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:44,040 Speaker 1: It's a combination of needing to offset the input cost 621 00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:50,120 Speaker 1: increases they're non trivial obviously, some labor and better return 622 00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:54,919 Speaker 1: for shareholders dividends, etc. There's a great chart from John 623 00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:59,240 Speaker 1: Deere on basically the revenue gain off of the price 624 00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:02,640 Speaker 1: which is most of it volume which is very very little, 625 00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:06,719 Speaker 1: if any, and then the material costs, labor costs, and 626 00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:12,080 Speaker 1: the return to shareholders and the offset to the input 627 00:36:12,120 --> 00:36:17,680 Speaker 1: cost increases is one hundred and thirty five. So it's 628 00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:22,040 Speaker 1: a very interesting Again, that's basically a duopoly in the US, 629 00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:25,960 Speaker 1: but it's a very interesting study and there's enough to 630 00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:30,000 Speaker 1: go around to cover all of it. All right, Sam, 631 00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:32,080 Speaker 1: thank you so much for coming on all thoughts. That 632 00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:36,080 Speaker 1: was fantastic, even though it did lead to the realization 633 00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:38,400 Speaker 1: that we are part of the problem. I feel like 634 00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:40,560 Speaker 1: the light bulb must have gone up like a big action. 635 00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:44,799 Speaker 1: I'm so sorry we did all news episode. Yeah, thanks 636 00:36:44,840 --> 00:37:00,640 Speaker 1: so thank you. Joe. I think we should call this 637 00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:04,440 Speaker 1: excuse inflation. I like excuse inflation, and you're right, the 638 00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:07,080 Speaker 1: baker said it. He yeah, that's all he said. He's 639 00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:09,520 Speaker 1: like even in the past, because this was even his 640 00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:11,520 Speaker 1: point when he said it was like even like prior 641 00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:14,920 Speaker 1: to the pandemic, etc. When he, as a baker was 642 00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:17,200 Speaker 1: thinking about when to raise prices, which he wanted to 643 00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:21,960 Speaker 1: do every year. The opportunities best arised when something related 644 00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:25,000 Speaker 1: like oh a flowered you know, disruption inflame or disruption 645 00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:26,839 Speaker 1: and eggs were in the news. It's like, Okay, this 646 00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:31,400 Speaker 1: is the moment that you can raise prices without consumers 647 00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:33,799 Speaker 1: pushing back too much. And then the last three years 648 00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:39,799 Speaker 1: have been nothing but laf destructions. Yeah, lallapaloozo excuses. That's right, 649 00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:43,560 Speaker 1: But obviously it does raise the question of what can 650 00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:47,120 Speaker 1: break the cycle, and it does seem you know, listening 651 00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:49,120 Speaker 1: to Sam lay out some of the comments that we've 652 00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:52,480 Speaker 1: seen on earnings calls, it does seem incredibly sticky. And 653 00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:55,000 Speaker 1: once you have that pricing power and you've managed to 654 00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:58,120 Speaker 1: push through the price, it feels like there's just very 655 00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:01,800 Speaker 1: little incentive to reverse, Like why would you if your PEPSI, 656 00:38:02,200 --> 00:38:04,880 Speaker 1: why would you start lowering prices? And you know, the 657 00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:09,560 Speaker 1: thing is and obviously the irony to me, which I think, 658 00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:12,160 Speaker 1: you know, people talk about greed and greed flation right 659 00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:14,360 Speaker 1: and it's like they don't need to be raising prices, 660 00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:17,640 Speaker 1: they're just expanding their margins. The irony to me is 661 00:38:18,080 --> 00:38:21,880 Speaker 1: that as long as companies are in this greed flation equilibrium, 662 00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:24,480 Speaker 1: like a sort of corner of the payoff game theory matrix, 663 00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:26,760 Speaker 1: the stock prices are not going to do well because 664 00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:30,000 Speaker 1: this will keep the FED on the twenty five forever standpoint. 665 00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:33,080 Speaker 1: There's sort of like keeping financial conditions from getting too loose. 666 00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:35,960 Speaker 1: So the irony is the companies would probably wish they 667 00:38:35,960 --> 00:38:38,360 Speaker 1: could get out of this part of the matrix because 668 00:38:38,440 --> 00:38:41,239 Speaker 1: management is mostly going to have their wealth tied to 669 00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:43,759 Speaker 1: the stock rev than anything else, So It's like a 670 00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:47,640 Speaker 1: pretty undesirable state for I think everyone right now, what 671 00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:53,280 Speaker 1: if higher interest rates which increase interest rate expenses also 672 00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:57,160 Speaker 1: end up fueling the POV strategy because you have to 673 00:38:57,200 --> 00:38:59,480 Speaker 1: make that up in one way or another. We gotta have, 674 00:38:59,640 --> 00:39:03,120 Speaker 1: we gotta Warren Mosler to talk about, we actually do it. 675 00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:06,040 Speaker 1: This is definitely an episode that I think has me 676 00:39:06,360 --> 00:39:09,560 Speaker 1: thinking about, like eight other episodes. Let's get Larry Hampton 677 00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:12,400 Speaker 1: on to talk about tractor supply though, yeah, okay, all right, um, 678 00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:15,080 Speaker 1: and chicken wings obviously, okay, shall we leave it there 679 00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:17,759 Speaker 1: for now? Leave it there? This has been another episode 680 00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:20,440 Speaker 1: of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can 681 00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:24,080 Speaker 1: follow me on Twitter at Tracy Alloway, and I'm Joe Wishal. 682 00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:27,400 Speaker 1: You can follow me on Twitter at the Stalwart. Follow 683 00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:31,279 Speaker 1: our guests Samuel Rimes. He's at Samuel Rimes. Follow our 684 00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:35,920 Speaker 1: producers Kermen Rodriguez at Kerman Arman and Dashel Bennett at dashbot, 685 00:39:36,239 --> 00:39:38,719 Speaker 1: and check out all of our podcasts at Bloomberg under 686 00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:42,480 Speaker 1: the handle at podcasts, and for more odd Lots content, 687 00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:45,080 Speaker 1: go to Bloomberg dot com slash odd Lots, where we 688 00:39:45,160 --> 00:39:47,600 Speaker 1: post the transcripts we have a blog in the newsletter 689 00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:49,920 Speaker 1: comes out every Friday. Go there and we sign up. 690 00:39:50,200 --> 00:39:50,960 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.