WEBVTT - Why New York Got Hit So Hard 0:00:03.920 --> 0:00:09.000 Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day eighty three 0:00:09.119 --> 0:00:15.000 since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today, widespread protests 0:00:15.040 --> 0:00:18.799 against police violence show no sign of abating and have 0:00:18.920 --> 0:00:22.520 eclipsed COVID nineteen as the central issue in the nation. 0:00:23.800 --> 0:00:27.680 Our main story today New York City for the brunt 0:00:27.720 --> 0:00:31.040 of COVID's punishment and is now feeling the pain of 0:00:31.080 --> 0:00:37.360 civil unrest, just as it was poised to reopen. First. 0:00:37.400 --> 0:00:50.879 Some brief headlines around the country and the world, there 0:00:50.880 --> 0:00:54.960 are reminders the pandemic is far from over. COVID nineteen 0:00:55.040 --> 0:00:58.680 deaths among Florida residents jumped the most since May eight. 0:00:59.440 --> 0:01:05.080 Florida began a phased reopening on May four. Hong Kong 0:01:05.240 --> 0:01:08.840 extended virus prevention measures after a new cluster of cases 0:01:09.440 --> 0:01:15.959 and Tokyo's infections spiked, and in the UK, Prime Minister 0:01:16.040 --> 0:01:19.560 Boris Johnson plans to reset his government's agenda with the 0:01:19.640 --> 0:01:27.560 financial statement and a speech on the post pandemic landscape 0:01:29.360 --> 0:01:34.080 and now our main story. Mayor build A Blasio still 0:01:34.120 --> 0:01:37.600 plans to begin reopening New York City, the epicenter of 0:01:37.640 --> 0:01:42.000 the COVID crisis, in the US on Monday. That's despite 0:01:42.040 --> 0:01:45.240 the unrest related to protests over the death of George 0:01:45.240 --> 0:01:48.480 Floyd and a curfew that will continue for the rest 0:01:48.480 --> 0:01:52.000 of the week. Hundreds of thousands of people will return 0:01:52.080 --> 0:01:56.880 to work in construction, manufacturing, wholesale, and curbside retail during 0:01:56.920 --> 0:02:01.280 the first phase of the city's reopening. At least twenty 0:02:01.360 --> 0:02:05.200 one thousand New Yorkers are dead from COVID nineteen, with 0:02:05.240 --> 0:02:08.040 a few dozen added to the city's count. Every day, 0:02:09.160 --> 0:02:14.040 New York's outbreak eclipses others around the world. Drew Armstrong, 0:02:14.320 --> 0:02:19.119 Bloomberg's Health Team editor, looked back on the statements of experts, officials, 0:02:19.160 --> 0:02:22.919 and politicians to better understand the root causes of New 0:02:23.000 --> 0:02:27.760 York City's devastating outbreak. I recently talked to Drew about 0:02:27.800 --> 0:02:34.240 what he found out, so Drew. On March fourth, New 0:02:34.320 --> 0:02:39.040 York reported its first coronavirus case of unknown origin in 0:02:39.160 --> 0:02:42.280 a lawyer from Westchester County who worked in the city. 0:02:42.680 --> 0:02:46.399 Is that how the New York outbreak started. So the 0:02:46.480 --> 0:02:49.200 March fourth case was the first one in New York 0:02:49.240 --> 0:02:52.480 City that nobody could figure out where it came from. 0:02:52.520 --> 0:02:55.040 And that's really important because when we talk about the 0:02:55.040 --> 0:02:58.079 start of these outbreaks, especially in New York City, it's 0:02:58.080 --> 0:03:00.760 really important to remember that there were almost certainly cases 0:03:00.840 --> 0:03:04.200 popping up that weren't caught before that, and so we 0:03:04.240 --> 0:03:06.160 only found out about the lawyer because he got sick 0:03:06.280 --> 0:03:08.720 enough to be hospitalized. And you have to remember that 0:03:08.760 --> 0:03:11.480 back in early March, there was barely any testing for 0:03:11.520 --> 0:03:14.399 this disease. We halted travel for many people from coming 0:03:14.440 --> 0:03:16.560 from China the month before, but there was an outbreak 0:03:16.560 --> 0:03:20.720 spreading to Europe and growing there, and plenty of people 0:03:20.720 --> 0:03:23.680 were traveling freely back and forth between Europe and the 0:03:23.760 --> 0:03:27.160 US during those weeks. People get really fixated on this 0:03:27.240 --> 0:03:30.399 idea of a patient zero, where one person gets infected 0:03:30.440 --> 0:03:33.320 and starts an outbreak, but with COVID Night Team, because 0:03:33.360 --> 0:03:36.160 the lack of testing early and how easily it spreads, 0:03:36.400 --> 0:03:38.040 that's not really the right way to think about it. 0:03:38.400 --> 0:03:40.280 The sick lawyer was just the tip of an iceberg 0:03:40.360 --> 0:03:42.680 that was already there. He was the first one to 0:03:42.680 --> 0:03:45.160 get sick enough for anyone to notice and test him, 0:03:45.440 --> 0:03:48.520 But there was almost certainly many, many more cases before 0:03:48.600 --> 0:03:53.000 he was diagnosed. So if we had shut down most 0:03:53.080 --> 0:03:58.000 travel from China, where did the cases come from, so 0:03:58.120 --> 0:04:00.560 it does seem like some of the early cases came 0:04:00.600 --> 0:04:03.120 from China. And there's this great study that looks at 0:04:03.120 --> 0:04:06.000 the genetic history of the virus done by researchers at 0:04:06.000 --> 0:04:09.320 the Los Almost National Laboratory in Mexico that shows how 0:04:09.360 --> 0:04:13.520 this works. So all viruses mutate, and most of these 0:04:13.600 --> 0:04:16.000 mutations are tiny, so we can do more or less 0:04:16.000 --> 0:04:17.720 the same thing we do with a genetic test to 0:04:17.760 --> 0:04:21.720 find family members like some lost grade aunt. With the virus. 0:04:22.080 --> 0:04:24.240 You look at the tiny mutations of virus. Has you 0:04:24.279 --> 0:04:27.080 trace the family tree to see which branch ended over 0:04:27.160 --> 0:04:29.560 here and started an outbreak in which and which branch 0:04:29.680 --> 0:04:33.320 went somewhere else. And what we see in the US 0:04:33.480 --> 0:04:36.760 and in New York is really really interesting. In the US, 0:04:36.960 --> 0:04:39.400 you see a bunch of cases from a genetic strand 0:04:39.400 --> 0:04:41.680 of the virus that came from China in February and 0:04:41.720 --> 0:04:44.719 early March. But while that was happening, there was a 0:04:44.760 --> 0:04:47.960 major outbreak in Italy and the US hadn't limited travel 0:04:48.040 --> 0:04:50.159 from there. So when New York gets hit, it doesn't 0:04:50.160 --> 0:04:52.240 get hit from China, gets infected with this variant of 0:04:52.279 --> 0:04:55.200 the virus from Europe, and New York is a huge 0:04:55.279 --> 0:04:57.960 travel portal from Europe. In the week before the US 0:04:58.040 --> 0:05:00.480 limited European travel, New York City Airport, it's had two 0:05:00.560 --> 0:05:04.159 hundred and seventy four thousand travelers arrived from there, and 0:05:04.279 --> 0:05:07.080 some of those people coming here probably helped start the outbreak, 0:05:07.120 --> 0:05:09.880 but nobody knew because we weren't testing or checking anyone. 0:05:10.320 --> 0:05:12.839 Here's what Governor Andrew Cuomo has said about that. In 0:05:13.000 --> 0:05:16.880 April news conference, everybody said the facts where the virus 0:05:16.960 --> 0:05:19.599 was coming from China, those were not the facts. The 0:05:19.680 --> 0:05:23.560 virus had left China. The virus went to Europe, and 0:05:23.640 --> 0:05:28.120 nobody told us, and people came from Europe to New 0:05:28.200 --> 0:05:32.800 York and to New Jersey into Connecticut, and three million 0:05:32.960 --> 0:05:37.400 European travelers came January February March before we did the 0:05:37.440 --> 0:05:42.039 European travel band, and they brought the virus to New 0:05:42.120 --> 0:05:45.160 York and that's why the New York number was so high. 0:05:45.560 --> 0:05:47.880 And so the US stopped a lot of cases from 0:05:47.880 --> 0:05:50.360 coming in from China, but the outbreak was global by then, 0:05:50.520 --> 0:05:53.560 and there were fifteen thousand confirmed cases in Italy in 0:05:53.600 --> 0:05:55.560 early March, and probably a lot more than that that 0:05:55.680 --> 0:05:58.599 hadn't been found. And the janetic detective work shows that 0:05:58.600 --> 0:06:01.200 they nike of a big majority of what hit the city, 0:06:01.839 --> 0:06:05.359 So what happened when they got here? Didn't lots of 0:06:05.360 --> 0:06:10.359 other cities bring in cases and seed their outbreaks. You 0:06:10.400 --> 0:06:12.480 know they did, But there's some structural parts of New 0:06:12.560 --> 0:06:16.120 York City that made things even worse. The subways, the buses, 0:06:16.200 --> 0:06:18.839 the trains. A lot of people here don't have cars. 0:06:19.040 --> 0:06:21.800 And for all of our complaints about the city's mass 0:06:21.839 --> 0:06:24.320 transit system, it works really well most of the time. 0:06:24.760 --> 0:06:26.440 I lived in Brooklyn for most of my time in 0:06:26.480 --> 0:06:28.200 New York, and I took the subway. I live in 0:06:28.200 --> 0:06:30.200 the suburbs now and I take the train in and 0:06:30.279 --> 0:06:34.159 it's often packed, but it's great. So it's also, though 0:06:34.279 --> 0:06:36.480 not hard to see how it's also a really perfect 0:06:36.480 --> 0:06:38.719 way to transmit a disease. If you've ever been on 0:06:38.720 --> 0:06:41.279 the four five line during rush hour, your short shoulder 0:06:41.760 --> 0:06:44.279 and when the outbreaks started, the advice New York leaders 0:06:44.320 --> 0:06:46.760 were giving out was that it was all fine. So 0:06:46.880 --> 0:06:49.040 just listen to this March second clip of New York 0:06:49.080 --> 0:06:52.320 City Health Commissioner Oxyrus Barba. There's no need to do 0:06:52.440 --> 0:06:56.200 any special anything in the community. We want new Yorkers 0:06:56.240 --> 0:06:59.880 to go about their daily lives. Ride the subway, take 0:07:00.040 --> 0:07:02.800 the bus, go see your neighbors. The important thing, as 0:07:02.880 --> 0:07:05.640 both the Mayor and the Governor have said, we want 0:07:05.720 --> 0:07:10.280 New Yorkers to lean even more into frequent handwashing and 0:07:10.320 --> 0:07:13.480 covering their mouths and their noses. And if you can't 0:07:13.520 --> 0:07:16.760 get to a water source, make alcohol based sand a 0:07:16.880 --> 0:07:21.160 hand sanitizer your new best friend. Everybody thought that this 0:07:21.240 --> 0:07:23.640 was basically a disease where if you covered your coffee, 0:07:23.640 --> 0:07:26.320 your sneeze, and you washed your hands, things were going 0:07:26.360 --> 0:07:28.920 to be more or less fine, and that was wrong. 0:07:29.560 --> 0:07:31.960 We talked to Mayor build a Blasio last week and 0:07:32.000 --> 0:07:34.360 he now describes the subways and busses as a major 0:07:34.480 --> 0:07:37.840 vector for the disease, and epidemiologists think the same thing. 0:07:38.320 --> 0:07:40.920 So basically, you take a crowded, dense place like a 0:07:40.920 --> 0:07:43.360 New York City subway, and then you go to a dense, 0:07:43.360 --> 0:07:46.880 crowded New York City restaurant or office or elevator, and 0:07:46.920 --> 0:07:48.560 then you go to a small New York City apartment. 0:07:48.560 --> 0:07:50.480 You kind of get the idea here. You know, the 0:07:50.560 --> 0:07:55.000 four most dense counties in America are New York City boroughs. 0:07:55.240 --> 0:07:57.760 Is a really crowded place, and I personally love that 0:07:57.800 --> 0:08:00.640 about it. People in interaction. That's would makes the city 0:08:00.680 --> 0:08:03.760 and I missed that everyone does. But it's also absolutely 0:08:03.760 --> 0:08:06.480 perfect for a virus. Viruses don't spread in states or 0:08:06.520 --> 0:08:10.080 cities or countries. They spread between people. In New York 0:08:10.120 --> 0:08:12.200 City has a lot of them, all well within six 0:08:12.240 --> 0:08:14.520 ft of each other for a lot of a day. 0:08:14.640 --> 0:08:19.120 By March twentieth, the state announced business closures and stay 0:08:19.160 --> 0:08:22.360 at home orders for work. But I'm getting the impression 0:08:22.560 --> 0:08:25.440 you think it was too late by then. Yeah. Probably. 0:08:25.520 --> 0:08:27.360 I mean if you look at the first case, that 0:08:27.440 --> 0:08:30.080 lawyer from March fourth, and you have to figure that 0:08:30.120 --> 0:08:32.720 there was a significant amount of spread by them that 0:08:32.800 --> 0:08:35.839 hadn't been detected. You know, he's one guy who was 0:08:35.880 --> 0:08:38.120 commuting in and out of the city. There had been 0:08:38.160 --> 0:08:41.360 a spike in flu like illnesses reported around this time, 0:08:41.840 --> 0:08:44.080 and by the time the city more or less shut down, 0:08:44.160 --> 0:08:47.320 there were four thousand cases a day. And you gotta 0:08:47.320 --> 0:08:50.680 remember at this time testing was barely happening. You combine 0:08:50.720 --> 0:08:53.439 that with an incubation period of four or five days, 0:08:53.800 --> 0:08:55.760 meaning a lot of people had already been infected but 0:08:55.800 --> 0:08:58.840 hadn't started chewing symptoms, and we're kind of well into 0:08:58.880 --> 0:09:03.080 the acceleration phase of the outbreak. You know, there's been 0:09:03.160 --> 0:09:06.040 some research showing that earlier closing would have saved lives, 0:09:06.040 --> 0:09:08.640 and it's probably true. The Blasio and Governor Cuomo, they 0:09:08.679 --> 0:09:11.120 had a couple of days of disagreement before they shutdown happened, 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:13.319 but the outbreak was here. I think it's important to 0:09:13.360 --> 0:09:16.520 remember well well before then. And if you look at 0:09:16.559 --> 0:09:19.480 how easily this disease spreads and how perfect the city 0:09:19.520 --> 0:09:21.640 is to spread it, then a lot of what happened 0:09:21.800 --> 0:09:24.120 may have been inevitable, at least with the tools we 0:09:24.160 --> 0:09:27.920 had in place and how we used them. Let's look forward. 0:09:28.559 --> 0:09:31.600 Is the city ready to open back up? And what 0:09:31.760 --> 0:09:34.959 about the protests going on? Yeah, the protests are of 0:09:35.080 --> 0:09:37.840 a wild card. Cases and deaths in New York City 0:09:37.840 --> 0:09:40.760 have been falling for weeks. But now you've got people 0:09:40.760 --> 0:09:44.000 out in the street demonstrating and very rightfully angry, and 0:09:44.040 --> 0:09:47.000 they're outside, but there's a lot of density. A lot 0:09:47.000 --> 0:09:49.400 of them are in masks, which is good, but some aren't. 0:09:49.679 --> 0:09:52.120 We really don't know how this is going to play out. 0:09:52.200 --> 0:09:54.319 We might see a surgeon cases in New York and 0:09:54.360 --> 0:09:56.719 elsewhere these protests are happening or we might not. I 0:09:56.720 --> 0:10:04.200 think it's a huge, huge, huge unanswered question. So businesses 0:10:04.200 --> 0:10:05.920 are starting to come back, but if you look at 0:10:05.920 --> 0:10:08.959 how it's really a trickle um. There are a handful 0:10:09.000 --> 0:10:11.800 of offices opening back up, but if you read the reports, 0:10:11.800 --> 0:10:13.920 it's really only a tiny percentage of people who are 0:10:13.920 --> 0:10:17.360 going back in. We don't have the million plus people 0:10:17.360 --> 0:10:20.600 who come into Manhattan and leave every day, all those commuters. 0:10:20.880 --> 0:10:23.560 It's gonna be really slow, in part because people in 0:10:23.559 --> 0:10:26.400 businesses just aren't ready yet. It seems like from everybody 0:10:26.440 --> 0:10:29.560 we've spoken to, I think the big question is what 0:10:29.640 --> 0:10:32.679 happens next time? There are more viruses out there like 0:10:32.760 --> 0:10:34.679 this one, and this isn't gonna be the last time 0:10:34.720 --> 0:10:36.640 we do this. I just hope we do it better. 0:10:50.000 --> 0:10:53.520 That was Drew Armstrong and that's our show today. For 0:10:53.640 --> 0:10:56.760 coverage of the outbreak from one bureaus around the world, 0:10:57.200 --> 0:11:01.720 visit Bloomberg dot com, flash Coronavirus Us and if you 0:11:01.800 --> 0:11:04.200 like the show, please leave us a review and a 0:11:04.320 --> 0:11:08.360 rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way 0:11:08.400 --> 0:11:14.080 to help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis 0:11:14.120 --> 0:11:19.280 Daily Edition is produced by top foreheads Jordan Gospore, Magnus Hendrickson, 0:11:19.520 --> 0:11:24.040 and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by 0:11:24.120 --> 0:11:29.120 Drew Armstrong. Original music by Leo sidron Our. Editors are 0:11:29.120 --> 0:11:34.160 Francesca Levi and Rick Shine. Francesca Levi is Bloomberg's head 0:11:34.200 --> 0:11:36.439 of podcasts. Thanks for listening.