1 00:00:03,920 --> 00:00:09,000 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day eighty three 2 00:00:09,119 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 1: since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today, widespread protests 3 00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:18,799 Speaker 1: against police violence show no sign of abating and have 4 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 1: eclipsed COVID nineteen as the central issue in the nation. 5 00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 1: Our main story today New York City for the brunt 6 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 1: of COVID's punishment and is now feeling the pain of 7 00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:37,360 Speaker 1: civil unrest, just as it was poised to reopen. First. 8 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:50,879 Speaker 1: Some brief headlines around the country and the world, there 9 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:54,960 Speaker 1: are reminders the pandemic is far from over. COVID nineteen 10 00:00:55,040 --> 00:00:58,680 Speaker 1: deaths among Florida residents jumped the most since May eight. 11 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:05,080 Speaker 1: Florida began a phased reopening on May four. Hong Kong 12 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:08,840 Speaker 1: extended virus prevention measures after a new cluster of cases 13 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:15,959 Speaker 1: and Tokyo's infections spiked, and in the UK, Prime Minister 14 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:19,560 Speaker 1: Boris Johnson plans to reset his government's agenda with the 15 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 1: financial statement and a speech on the post pandemic landscape 16 00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:34,080 Speaker 1: and now our main story. Mayor build A Blasio still 17 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:37,600 Speaker 1: plans to begin reopening New York City, the epicenter of 18 00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 1: the COVID crisis, in the US on Monday. That's despite 19 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:45,240 Speaker 1: the unrest related to protests over the death of George 20 00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 1: Floyd and a curfew that will continue for the rest 21 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 1: of the week. Hundreds of thousands of people will return 22 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 1: to work in construction, manufacturing, wholesale, and curbside retail during 23 00:01:56,920 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 1: the first phase of the city's reopening. At least twenty 24 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 1: one thousand New Yorkers are dead from COVID nineteen, with 25 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 1: a few dozen added to the city's count. Every day, 26 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 1: New York's outbreak eclipses others around the world. Drew Armstrong, 27 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:19,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Health Team editor, looked back on the statements of experts, officials, 28 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:22,919 Speaker 1: and politicians to better understand the root causes of New 29 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 1: York City's devastating outbreak. I recently talked to Drew about 30 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:34,240 Speaker 1: what he found out, so Drew. On March fourth, New 31 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 1: York reported its first coronavirus case of unknown origin in 32 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 1: a lawyer from Westchester County who worked in the city. 33 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:46,399 Speaker 1: Is that how the New York outbreak started. So the 34 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:49,200 Speaker 1: March fourth case was the first one in New York 35 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 1: City that nobody could figure out where it came from. 36 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 1: And that's really important because when we talk about the 37 00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:58,079 Speaker 1: start of these outbreaks, especially in New York City, it's 38 00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 1: really important to remember that there were almost certainly cases 39 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:04,200 Speaker 1: popping up that weren't caught before that, and so we 40 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 1: only found out about the lawyer because he got sick 41 00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:08,720 Speaker 1: enough to be hospitalized. And you have to remember that 42 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:11,480 Speaker 1: back in early March, there was barely any testing for 43 00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:14,399 Speaker 1: this disease. We halted travel for many people from coming 44 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:16,560 Speaker 1: from China the month before, but there was an outbreak 45 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 1: spreading to Europe and growing there, and plenty of people 46 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:23,680 Speaker 1: were traveling freely back and forth between Europe and the 47 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:27,160 Speaker 1: US during those weeks. People get really fixated on this 48 00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:30,399 Speaker 1: idea of a patient zero, where one person gets infected 49 00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:33,320 Speaker 1: and starts an outbreak, but with COVID Night Team, because 50 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 1: the lack of testing early and how easily it spreads, 51 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 1: that's not really the right way to think about it. 52 00:03:38,400 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 1: The sick lawyer was just the tip of an iceberg 53 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 1: that was already there. He was the first one to 54 00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:45,160 Speaker 1: get sick enough for anyone to notice and test him, 55 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 1: But there was almost certainly many, many more cases before 56 00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 1: he was diagnosed. So if we had shut down most 57 00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:58,000 Speaker 1: travel from China, where did the cases come from, so 58 00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 1: it does seem like some of the early cases came 59 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:03,120 Speaker 1: from China. And there's this great study that looks at 60 00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 1: the genetic history of the virus done by researchers at 61 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 1: the Los Almost National Laboratory in Mexico that shows how 62 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 1: this works. So all viruses mutate, and most of these 63 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 1: mutations are tiny, so we can do more or less 64 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:17,720 Speaker 1: the same thing we do with a genetic test to 65 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:21,720 Speaker 1: find family members like some lost grade aunt. With the virus. 66 00:04:22,080 --> 00:04:24,240 Speaker 1: You look at the tiny mutations of virus. Has you 67 00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 1: trace the family tree to see which branch ended over 68 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:29,560 Speaker 1: here and started an outbreak in which and which branch 69 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 1: went somewhere else. And what we see in the US 70 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:36,760 Speaker 1: and in New York is really really interesting. In the US, 71 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 1: you see a bunch of cases from a genetic strand 72 00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 1: of the virus that came from China in February and 73 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:44,719 Speaker 1: early March. But while that was happening, there was a 74 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:47,960 Speaker 1: major outbreak in Italy and the US hadn't limited travel 75 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:50,159 Speaker 1: from there. So when New York gets hit, it doesn't 76 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:52,240 Speaker 1: get hit from China, gets infected with this variant of 77 00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 1: the virus from Europe, and New York is a huge 78 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:57,960 Speaker 1: travel portal from Europe. In the week before the US 79 00:04:58,040 --> 00:05:00,480 Speaker 1: limited European travel, New York City Airport, it's had two 80 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:04,159 Speaker 1: hundred and seventy four thousand travelers arrived from there, and 81 00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 1: some of those people coming here probably helped start the outbreak, 82 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:09,880 Speaker 1: but nobody knew because we weren't testing or checking anyone. 83 00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:12,839 Speaker 1: Here's what Governor Andrew Cuomo has said about that. In 84 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 1: April news conference, everybody said the facts where the virus 85 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:19,599 Speaker 1: was coming from China, those were not the facts. The 86 00:05:19,680 --> 00:05:23,560 Speaker 1: virus had left China. The virus went to Europe, and 87 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:28,120 Speaker 1: nobody told us, and people came from Europe to New 88 00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:32,800 Speaker 1: York and to New Jersey into Connecticut, and three million 89 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:37,400 Speaker 1: European travelers came January February March before we did the 90 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:42,039 Speaker 1: European travel band, and they brought the virus to New 91 00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:45,160 Speaker 1: York and that's why the New York number was so high. 92 00:05:45,560 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 1: And so the US stopped a lot of cases from 93 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:50,360 Speaker 1: coming in from China, but the outbreak was global by then, 94 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:53,560 Speaker 1: and there were fifteen thousand confirmed cases in Italy in 95 00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 1: early March, and probably a lot more than that that 96 00:05:55,680 --> 00:05:58,599 Speaker 1: hadn't been found. And the janetic detective work shows that 97 00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:01,200 Speaker 1: they nike of a big majority of what hit the city, 98 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:05,359 Speaker 1: So what happened when they got here? Didn't lots of 99 00:06:05,360 --> 00:06:10,359 Speaker 1: other cities bring in cases and seed their outbreaks. You 100 00:06:10,400 --> 00:06:12,480 Speaker 1: know they did, But there's some structural parts of New 101 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:16,120 Speaker 1: York City that made things even worse. The subways, the buses, 102 00:06:16,200 --> 00:06:18,839 Speaker 1: the trains. A lot of people here don't have cars. 103 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:21,800 Speaker 1: And for all of our complaints about the city's mass 104 00:06:21,839 --> 00:06:24,320 Speaker 1: transit system, it works really well most of the time. 105 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:26,440 Speaker 1: I lived in Brooklyn for most of my time in 106 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:28,200 Speaker 1: New York, and I took the subway. I live in 107 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:30,200 Speaker 1: the suburbs now and I take the train in and 108 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:34,159 Speaker 1: it's often packed, but it's great. So it's also, though 109 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:36,480 Speaker 1: not hard to see how it's also a really perfect 110 00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:38,719 Speaker 1: way to transmit a disease. If you've ever been on 111 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:41,279 Speaker 1: the four five line during rush hour, your short shoulder 112 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:44,279 Speaker 1: and when the outbreaks started, the advice New York leaders 113 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:46,760 Speaker 1: were giving out was that it was all fine. So 114 00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:49,040 Speaker 1: just listen to this March second clip of New York 115 00:06:49,080 --> 00:06:52,320 Speaker 1: City Health Commissioner Oxyrus Barba. There's no need to do 116 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:56,200 Speaker 1: any special anything in the community. We want new Yorkers 117 00:06:56,240 --> 00:06:59,880 Speaker 1: to go about their daily lives. Ride the subway, take 118 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:02,800 Speaker 1: the bus, go see your neighbors. The important thing, as 119 00:07:02,880 --> 00:07:05,640 Speaker 1: both the Mayor and the Governor have said, we want 120 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:10,280 Speaker 1: New Yorkers to lean even more into frequent handwashing and 121 00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:13,480 Speaker 1: covering their mouths and their noses. And if you can't 122 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:16,760 Speaker 1: get to a water source, make alcohol based sand a 123 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 1: hand sanitizer your new best friend. Everybody thought that this 124 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:23,640 Speaker 1: was basically a disease where if you covered your coffee, 125 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:26,320 Speaker 1: your sneeze, and you washed your hands, things were going 126 00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 1: to be more or less fine, and that was wrong. 127 00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 1: We talked to Mayor build a Blasio last week and 128 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:34,360 Speaker 1: he now describes the subways and busses as a major 129 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:37,840 Speaker 1: vector for the disease, and epidemiologists think the same thing. 130 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:40,920 Speaker 1: So basically, you take a crowded, dense place like a 131 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 1: New York City subway, and then you go to a dense, 132 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:46,880 Speaker 1: crowded New York City restaurant or office or elevator, and 133 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:48,560 Speaker 1: then you go to a small New York City apartment. 134 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:50,480 Speaker 1: You kind of get the idea here. You know, the 135 00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:55,000 Speaker 1: four most dense counties in America are New York City boroughs. 136 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:57,760 Speaker 1: Is a really crowded place, and I personally love that 137 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 1: about it. People in interaction. That's would makes the city 138 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:03,760 Speaker 1: and I missed that everyone does. But it's also absolutely 139 00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:06,480 Speaker 1: perfect for a virus. Viruses don't spread in states or 140 00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:10,080 Speaker 1: cities or countries. They spread between people. In New York 141 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:12,200 Speaker 1: City has a lot of them, all well within six 142 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:14,520 Speaker 1: ft of each other for a lot of a day. 143 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 1: By March twentieth, the state announced business closures and stay 144 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:22,360 Speaker 1: at home orders for work. But I'm getting the impression 145 00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:25,440 Speaker 1: you think it was too late by then. Yeah. Probably. 146 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 1: I mean if you look at the first case, that 147 00:08:27,440 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 1: lawyer from March fourth, and you have to figure that 148 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:32,720 Speaker 1: there was a significant amount of spread by them that 149 00:08:32,800 --> 00:08:35,839 Speaker 1: hadn't been detected. You know, he's one guy who was 150 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:38,120 Speaker 1: commuting in and out of the city. There had been 151 00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:41,360 Speaker 1: a spike in flu like illnesses reported around this time, 152 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:44,080 Speaker 1: and by the time the city more or less shut down, 153 00:08:44,160 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 1: there were four thousand cases a day. And you gotta 154 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:50,680 Speaker 1: remember at this time testing was barely happening. You combine 155 00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:53,439 Speaker 1: that with an incubation period of four or five days, 156 00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:55,760 Speaker 1: meaning a lot of people had already been infected but 157 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:58,840 Speaker 1: hadn't started chewing symptoms, and we're kind of well into 158 00:08:58,880 --> 00:09:03,080 Speaker 1: the acceleration phase of the outbreak. You know, there's been 159 00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 1: some research showing that earlier closing would have saved lives, 160 00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:08,640 Speaker 1: and it's probably true. The Blasio and Governor Cuomo, they 161 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 1: had a couple of days of disagreement before they shutdown happened, 162 00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:13,319 Speaker 1: but the outbreak was here. I think it's important to 163 00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:16,520 Speaker 1: remember well well before then. And if you look at 164 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 1: how easily this disease spreads and how perfect the city 165 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:21,640 Speaker 1: is to spread it, then a lot of what happened 166 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:24,120 Speaker 1: may have been inevitable, at least with the tools we 167 00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 1: had in place and how we used them. Let's look forward. 168 00:09:28,559 --> 00:09:31,600 Speaker 1: Is the city ready to open back up? And what 169 00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:34,959 Speaker 1: about the protests going on? Yeah, the protests are of 170 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:37,840 Speaker 1: a wild card. Cases and deaths in New York City 171 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:40,760 Speaker 1: have been falling for weeks. But now you've got people 172 00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:44,000 Speaker 1: out in the street demonstrating and very rightfully angry, and 173 00:09:44,040 --> 00:09:47,000 Speaker 1: they're outside, but there's a lot of density. A lot 174 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:49,400 Speaker 1: of them are in masks, which is good, but some aren't. 175 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 1: We really don't know how this is going to play out. 176 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:54,319 Speaker 1: We might see a surgeon cases in New York and 177 00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:56,719 Speaker 1: elsewhere these protests are happening or we might not. I 178 00:09:56,720 --> 00:10:04,200 Speaker 1: think it's a huge, huge, huge unanswered question. So businesses 179 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:05,920 Speaker 1: are starting to come back, but if you look at 180 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:08,959 Speaker 1: how it's really a trickle um. There are a handful 181 00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:11,800 Speaker 1: of offices opening back up, but if you read the reports, 182 00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:13,920 Speaker 1: it's really only a tiny percentage of people who are 183 00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:17,360 Speaker 1: going back in. We don't have the million plus people 184 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:20,600 Speaker 1: who come into Manhattan and leave every day, all those commuters. 185 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:23,560 Speaker 1: It's gonna be really slow, in part because people in 186 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:26,400 Speaker 1: businesses just aren't ready yet. It seems like from everybody 187 00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:29,560 Speaker 1: we've spoken to, I think the big question is what 188 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:32,679 Speaker 1: happens next time? There are more viruses out there like 189 00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:34,679 Speaker 1: this one, and this isn't gonna be the last time 190 00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:36,640 Speaker 1: we do this. I just hope we do it better. 191 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:53,520 Speaker 1: That was Drew Armstrong and that's our show today. For 192 00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 1: coverage of the outbreak from one bureaus around the world, 193 00:10:57,200 --> 00:11:01,720 Speaker 1: visit Bloomberg dot com, flash Coronavirus Us and if you 194 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:04,200 Speaker 1: like the show, please leave us a review and a 195 00:11:04,320 --> 00:11:08,360 Speaker 1: rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way 196 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:14,080 Speaker 1: to help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis 197 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 1: Daily Edition is produced by top foreheads Jordan Gospore, Magnus Hendrickson, 198 00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:24,040 Speaker 1: and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by 199 00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:29,120 Speaker 1: Drew Armstrong. Original music by Leo sidron Our. Editors are 200 00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:34,160 Speaker 1: Francesca Levi and Rick Shine. Francesca Levi is Bloomberg's head 201 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:36,439 Speaker 1: of podcasts. Thanks for listening.