WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 145th Kentucky Derby Preview and Picks 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:11.879 Check it down Man Now Down Man Thursday Morning, make 0:00:11.960 --> 0:00:16.360 stuck in Giving the Book podcasts Kill Alexander. You know 0:00:16.600 --> 0:00:20.360 it's that time of year. The one and Run for 0:00:20.480 --> 0:00:23.840 the Roses, the Kentucky Derby, first leg of the Triple 0:00:23.880 --> 0:00:28.160 Crown at Churchill Downs this Saturday, six fifty pm Eastern 0:00:28.160 --> 0:00:33.000 three pm Pacific. We get into it with Marco Dangelo 0:00:33.159 --> 0:00:36.239 or old megapod friend Marco doing double duty here on 0:00:36.280 --> 0:00:38.680 the podcast. Ron Flatter from Visen will be on the 0:00:38.680 --> 0:00:41.920 phone as well as Will Peter for nital our old 0:00:42.040 --> 0:00:45.200 daily racing forum now doing his own podcast. He will 0:00:45.240 --> 0:00:47.720 be on the show to break down the derby as well. 0:00:47.760 --> 0:00:50.559 We'll talk a little Kentucky oaks in the process. To 0:00:51.080 --> 0:00:55.240 also throw in at back end al Bernstein Al Bernstein 0:00:55.400 --> 0:00:58.880 Hall of Fame boxing announcer to talk about the middleweight 0:00:59.000 --> 0:01:02.960 unification title about between Canelo Alvarez and Danny Jacobs. That's 0:01:02.960 --> 0:01:05.560 on the show as well. Today. Enjoy horse racing and 0:01:05.640 --> 0:01:09.400 boxing parting like it's nineteen eight. On today's Beating the 0:01:09.400 --> 0:01:12.240 Book podcast, a numbers game with your host Gil Alexander, 0:01:12.440 --> 0:01:15.440 broadcasting live from our visa in studios in Las Vegas. 0:01:15.480 --> 0:01:18.200 Back on the numbers game here at Alexander. Thanks for 0:01:18.240 --> 0:01:19.920 tuning in series sex semp Channel two four. By the way, 0:01:19.920 --> 0:01:21.880 I should mention I'm on the Raptors tonight, I didn't 0:01:21.880 --> 0:01:24.480 make that clear. I'm on the Veloci Raptors who I 0:01:24.520 --> 0:01:28.720 mentioned earlier. Uh Veloco raptors indigenous to the t dot 0:01:29.360 --> 0:01:32.720 the six up there in Toronto. Clearly now they named 0:01:32.720 --> 0:01:35.160 it after because the popularity of the movie Jurassic Park 0:01:35.160 --> 0:01:37.680 at that time. They named their team the Raptors, and 0:01:37.720 --> 0:01:40.000 now they've got to reconsider that, like more than a 0:01:40.080 --> 0:01:42.399 quarter century later, they really do. They are reconsidering it 0:01:42.840 --> 0:01:44.920 because they're like, you know, and I made the comparisons 0:01:44.920 --> 0:01:46.360 like it's like if Las Vegas got a team and 0:01:46.440 --> 0:01:49.480 named their team after a Game of Thrones character, and 0:01:49.480 --> 0:01:51.880 then like quarter century from now, they're like, what is this? 0:01:52.320 --> 0:01:54.840 What is this all about? All right, let's talk the 0:01:54.960 --> 0:01:57.960 one hundred and forty five run for the Roses and 0:01:58.040 --> 0:02:00.200 ladies and gentlemen. A man who saw the previous one 0:02:00.680 --> 0:02:04.080 forty four each and every one of them run for 0:02:04.080 --> 0:02:06.920 the Roses live and in person. It's Marco to Angelo, 0:02:06.960 --> 0:02:10.680 Good morning, Marco. That joke never gets doesn't never, never, 0:02:10.840 --> 0:02:13.160 not funny for those who have listened to the podcast 0:02:13.200 --> 0:02:16.160 for many years. Thanks for being here, man, No problems 0:02:17.000 --> 0:02:19.600 like Christmas for me. Kentucky Derby Week. How many of 0:02:19.639 --> 0:02:22.880 these do you do today? I am NonStop until six 0:02:22.919 --> 0:02:27.399 o'clock today. I got something going. Yeah. Well, um, we're 0:02:27.400 --> 0:02:29.080 happy to have you here. Thanks for joining in and 0:02:29.080 --> 0:02:32.080 of course from Louisville straight live. I believe we have 0:02:32.160 --> 0:02:33.720 them on them on the phone or on Skype? What 0:02:33.760 --> 0:02:37.040 do we got him on here? Audio? Okay? Either way 0:02:37.080 --> 0:02:40.000 on audio, it's our friend Ron Flatter. Good morning, Ron. Yeah. 0:02:40.000 --> 0:02:41.600 I didn't want to scare you by having to see 0:02:41.639 --> 0:02:43.799 me this morning, because you know, I just I am 0:02:43.880 --> 0:02:48.360 not looking becoming of a video stream the quality of 0:02:48.400 --> 0:02:53.359 yours skill. Thank you. I appreciate that, all right. So 0:02:53.720 --> 0:02:55.919 let me just start here because it's the obvious place 0:02:55.960 --> 0:02:58.240 to start, obviously. The morning line favorite was Omaha Beach 0:02:58.280 --> 0:03:01.680 four to one yesterday in I mean and listening horse 0:03:01.800 --> 0:03:06.800 racing context. Stunning news scratched when Trent Richard Mandela confirmed 0:03:06.800 --> 0:03:12.120 to Churchill Downs that Omaha Beach had an entrapped epic glottis. Now, 0:03:12.520 --> 0:03:15.959 let's not get into the details of that other than 0:03:16.000 --> 0:03:18.679 it's a it's a breathing issue and the horse will 0:03:18.720 --> 0:03:20.239 be fine. It's just that the horse is gonna be 0:03:20.280 --> 0:03:21.800 out for two or three weeks. So the whole Triple 0:03:21.840 --> 0:03:24.760 crownd thing is done for Omaha Beach. But this, obviously, Marco, 0:03:25.320 --> 0:03:28.680 sends things into a completely different spiral than we thought. 0:03:28.680 --> 0:03:30.920 We were completely an animal than we thought we were 0:03:30.919 --> 0:03:34.360 getting yesterday. Uh, the first question I usually asked on it. Well, 0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:37.120 first of all, before I get to that, I was thinking, 0:03:37.760 --> 0:03:41.400 this sounds I remember something like this happening, and I 0:03:41.440 --> 0:03:45.080 remember I'll have another in twelve before the Belmont Stakes. 0:03:45.080 --> 0:03:46.640 I'll have another. Had a shout at the Triple Crown. 0:03:46.880 --> 0:03:48.680 It was the day before that, I'll have another. Head 0:03:48.680 --> 0:03:51.680 tendon nies couldn't go. They took him out, and then 0:03:51.960 --> 0:03:55.280 you know it's that one was a more serious injury. 0:03:55.280 --> 0:03:56.920 We're here, like you said, this is going to be 0:03:56.960 --> 0:03:59.720 just a two to three week procedure. Um, it's a 0:03:59.760 --> 0:04:02.400 si surgery for him. I've had it done to my horses. 0:04:02.440 --> 0:04:04.400 They come back generally good, as you know, the same 0:04:04.440 --> 0:04:07.400 as they were. Yeah. Um, sadly on the timing, though 0:04:07.640 --> 0:04:10.320 not for for the owner who obviously and that team 0:04:10.360 --> 0:04:13.320 of Omaha Beach. Um Ron was there a derby where 0:04:13.360 --> 0:04:16.080 this happened before two were a morning line favorite had 0:04:16.120 --> 0:04:18.560 to get scratched at the last minute, so to speak, Yeah, 0:04:18.800 --> 0:04:21.919 I want revenge. Was a few years ago, was scratched 0:04:22.160 --> 0:04:24.720 the morning of the race, and so that was a 0:04:24.760 --> 0:04:28.040 prominent one. Jeff Mullens trained that horse. This has happened 0:04:28.040 --> 0:04:31.440 three times now to Mike Smith. It happened five years 0:04:31.440 --> 0:04:33.920 ago with a horse, and then another time back I 0:04:33.960 --> 0:04:35.719 think it was two thousand or two thousand one, he 0:04:35.760 --> 0:04:39.479 had a horse coming off the training track and uh, 0:04:39.560 --> 0:04:43.160 he got kicked by the stable pony and knocked him 0:04:43.160 --> 0:04:44.760 out of the race. So this is the third time 0:04:44.760 --> 0:04:47.480 it's happened to Mike Smith. And remember Mike made the 0:04:47.520 --> 0:04:50.400 decision to take his talents to Omaha Beach, so you 0:04:50.400 --> 0:04:53.360 know he did without a ride. And it's I did ask. 0:04:53.400 --> 0:04:56.000 In fact, Bob Bafford walked by here just minutes ago 0:04:56.040 --> 0:04:59.240 before we came on. I did ask Bob yesterday if 0:04:59.240 --> 0:05:02.720 he considered taking Mike back onto Roadster, because that was 0:05:02.800 --> 0:05:07.200 Mike's plan b or his alternative when he chose Omaha Beach, 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:10.760 and Bob said no, He's sticking with Florence shru. I 0:05:10.800 --> 0:05:13.240 did ask Mike by Jexton. We were going back and 0:05:13.279 --> 0:05:16.000 forth and even at a phone conversation last night. Uh, 0:05:16.040 --> 0:05:18.200 if you know, as they say, as an afterthought, I 0:05:18.240 --> 0:05:20.680 asked him, does anybody going after you maybe to be 0:05:20.720 --> 0:05:22.720 a substitute writer? And I never heard back from him, 0:05:22.760 --> 0:05:24.840 So read into that what you will. You know, he 0:05:24.920 --> 0:05:28.120 might have had dinner plans too, So that being the case. Uh, 0:05:28.360 --> 0:05:31.440 Mike Smith being without a ride is certainly significant, and 0:05:31.480 --> 0:05:34.039 so there's that to consider. Although I will remind you 0:05:34.080 --> 0:05:36.520 Mike has only two for twenty four in Kentucky Derby's. 0:05:36.680 --> 0:05:40.200 But was the board justified last year? Correct? Yeah, sometimes 0:05:40.200 --> 0:05:43.040 the horse matters. Sometimes the horse matters, that's right. Uh 0:05:43.080 --> 0:05:45.880 So Mike Smith without amount, what a turn of events there. 0:05:46.080 --> 0:05:48.000 So the question, guys that I asked to start every 0:05:48.000 --> 0:05:50.039 one of these in Marco. You'll remember these from previous 0:05:50.160 --> 0:05:53.200 uh shows on the podcast in here at a numbers game, 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:54.800 at Visa and live as always if I came to 0:05:54.839 --> 0:05:57.880 you from the future, let's start beyond the derby. First, 0:05:57.880 --> 0:05:59.760 I came to you from the future and I said, hey, guys, 0:06:00.040 --> 0:06:03.240 there was a triple crown winner this year. Who was 0:06:03.360 --> 0:06:06.520 that horse? And I'm guessing the answer would have been 0:06:06.560 --> 0:06:09.160 Omaha Beach if if you had to answer it, if 0:06:09.200 --> 0:06:10.880 I had to answer it, yes, I would have said 0:06:10.920 --> 0:06:14.960 Omahawk Beach. But I was doing a podcast yesterday actually 0:06:15.000 --> 0:06:17.400 as the news was breaking, and we were actually talking 0:06:17.400 --> 0:06:20.240 about the Triple Crown, and I was saying, there's not 0:06:20.279 --> 0:06:23.400 gonna be a Triple Crown winner this year, even even 0:06:23.400 --> 0:06:25.599 with Omaha Beach, and I thought there was actually value 0:06:25.839 --> 0:06:29.080 yesterday was around town minus five fifty. You could get 0:06:29.080 --> 0:06:31.400 it on the no. And the reason for that, gil 0:06:31.560 --> 0:06:36.080 is there's not a superstar in this crop. Very competitive, 0:06:36.160 --> 0:06:39.880 but more importantly moving forward to the Preakness this year, 0:06:39.920 --> 0:06:42.800 more than any other year, there's gonna be some really 0:06:42.920 --> 0:06:46.359 good horses waiting in the second and third leg because 0:06:46.680 --> 0:06:49.520 a horse like Bourbon War is a very good horse 0:06:49.800 --> 0:06:52.040 that I feel was better than some of the horses 0:06:52.040 --> 0:06:54.200 that are in the Derby but just missed out on 0:06:54.240 --> 0:06:57.279 the points. Instagram didn't get in. So you have that 0:06:57.480 --> 0:07:00.120 element that's gonna help I think still one of the 0:07:00.160 --> 0:07:02.320 two legs I see and so there and there is 0:07:02.320 --> 0:07:04.400 no justified in this fielder maybe even better stated, there 0:07:04.480 --> 0:07:07.760 is no American Pharaoh in this field that is that dominant. 0:07:08.080 --> 0:07:10.080 But if I but if I'm holding you to it, 0:07:10.520 --> 0:07:12.720 and I said, listen, there was a triple crown winner, 0:07:12.760 --> 0:07:16.680 which of these horses had the best shot? Um, you 0:07:16.680 --> 0:07:19.080 don't even want to answer it. I would go with Roadster. 0:07:19.360 --> 0:07:22.160 Uh wow, this is a horse that you know is 0:07:22.240 --> 0:07:25.000 lightly raced, only has two starts this year. And if 0:07:25.040 --> 0:07:27.840 you notice Bafford has three horses this year, and you 0:07:27.880 --> 0:07:30.920 remember going into last year's Derby, all of the talk, 0:07:31.200 --> 0:07:33.840 the question on Justify was does he have enough of 0:07:33.840 --> 0:07:36.720 a foundation? And you know he didn't race it too, 0:07:36.760 --> 0:07:38.480 and we know that no horse had done that since 0:07:38.680 --> 0:07:40.960 way back when Apollo did it. You know, it seemed 0:07:41.000 --> 0:07:44.080 like yesterday for me. Everyone loves the Apollo stat and 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:46.840 but he he broke that myth last year. Well, look 0:07:46.840 --> 0:07:49.960 at his three entries this year. They all have two starts, 0:07:50.360 --> 0:07:52.600 where you know, generally a lot of trainers like to 0:07:52.640 --> 0:07:55.080 have the three going into the Derby. All of his 0:07:55.200 --> 0:07:57.760 only have two starts this season. Talking about him probable 0:07:57.880 --> 0:08:01.240 Roadster and game winner. On the same question for you, 0:08:01.280 --> 0:08:03.680 just sort of a hypothetical, if if I came to 0:08:03.720 --> 0:08:05.840 you from the future and there is a triple crown Winner, 0:08:05.960 --> 0:08:08.600 what horse would that be? Well, I am going to 0:08:08.640 --> 0:08:11.239 agree that Roadster is my pick for the Kentucky Derby, 0:08:11.360 --> 0:08:13.520 so therefore he would be my pick for a triple crown. 0:08:13.520 --> 0:08:16.160 But I actually think Game Winner might be better suited 0:08:16.160 --> 0:08:18.520 in that regard. The only question I have with game 0:08:18.560 --> 0:08:21.840 Winner is whether he has piqued whether his precocity at 0:08:21.840 --> 0:08:24.280 age two has been caught up with by the ever 0:08:24.360 --> 0:08:26.440 growing three year olds that are in the rest of 0:08:26.440 --> 0:08:29.560 the field. But Roadster, his only real loss was last 0:08:29.600 --> 0:08:32.480 year in the del Mar Futurity. He finished third and 0:08:32.520 --> 0:08:34.720 it was discovered he had a throat issue. So while 0:08:34.720 --> 0:08:38.040 we're talking throat issues, uh year, here was one with Roadster. 0:08:38.200 --> 0:08:40.920 He had a successful operation on it and has won 0:08:41.000 --> 0:08:43.880 his two races since, both with Mike Smith. And now 0:08:43.880 --> 0:08:46.120 you have Florence shru a board. By the way, I'm 0:08:46.160 --> 0:08:48.040 not sure. I don't want to bury a sub lead 0:08:48.160 --> 0:08:50.480 that's been going on here. But there's another horse that 0:08:50.520 --> 0:08:52.760 may have to scratch out of the race, and that 0:08:52.880 --> 0:08:56.240 is the closer high Call. The number eleven horse trained 0:08:56.240 --> 0:09:00.760 by Kiera McLaughlin developed a foot abscess and that abcess 0:09:00.800 --> 0:09:02.920 does not clear up in the next twenty four hours. 0:09:03.200 --> 0:09:05.640 He will be scratched from the race at nine o'clock 0:09:05.679 --> 0:09:08.559 Eastern time tomorrow morning, So you could have a field 0:09:08.559 --> 0:09:11.360 of nineteen and where that is significant for the horses 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:14.520 that we've just mentioned. If High Call is out the 0:09:14.600 --> 0:09:18.560 number eleven horse and Omaha Beach already out, the horse 0:09:18.600 --> 0:09:21.080 that will move in and get stuck in the fourteen 0:09:21.160 --> 0:09:24.760 hole that spot that is a bottleneck. That's just inviting 0:09:24.760 --> 0:09:27.280 the fifteen and the sixteen to come over and slam 0:09:27.280 --> 0:09:30.400 into him. Game winner. The horse that would come out 0:09:30.400 --> 0:09:33.839 of the fifteen hole his stablemate Roadster. So you think 0:09:33.840 --> 0:09:35.679 that's gonna throw a little intrigue into the race of 0:09:35.760 --> 0:09:39.320 High Call scratches out? That interesting? Uh So that makes 0:09:39.320 --> 0:09:40.599 sense because I was, you know, the thing I was 0:09:40.640 --> 0:09:43.440 saying yesterday was I was when Omaha Beach got scratched 0:09:43.760 --> 0:09:46.480 that moved Roadster from from the seventeen everybody saying, oh, no, 0:09:46.480 --> 0:09:48.360 one's everyone from seventeen to six, and I'm like, oh, now, 0:09:48.400 --> 0:09:50.000 all of a sudden, Roadster can win it. Because I 0:09:50.080 --> 0:09:53.520 found that to be a little bit of a fake 0:09:53.559 --> 0:09:57.040 out on that stat Some stats not as meaningful as others, 0:09:57.080 --> 0:09:59.160 but I like your angle on that run. So yeah, 0:09:59.200 --> 0:10:01.280 and by the way American Pharaoh drew in I think 0:10:01.280 --> 0:10:05.760 they're only eighteen in the race when he won in fifteen, 0:10:05.880 --> 0:10:07.880 he got scratched inward and I think he came out 0:10:07.880 --> 0:10:09.280 of me. He may have been in the seventeen, but 0:10:09.360 --> 0:10:11.800 he drew inward as a result. So yeah, I think 0:10:12.120 --> 0:10:14.200 I think that's a bogus stab because let's remember go 0:10:14.240 --> 0:10:16.760 back in time in the Kentucky Derby, there weren't always 0:10:16.800 --> 0:10:19.400 seventeen horses in the race. That's just a recent that's 0:10:19.440 --> 0:10:22.199 a recent trend. Absolutely so with Omaha Beach out of 0:10:22.200 --> 0:10:25.440 the running, so Churchill Down's oddsmaker Mike Metalia revised the 0:10:25.440 --> 0:10:28.280 morning line. Game Winner now the nine to two favorite 0:10:28.320 --> 0:10:30.160 for the mile and a quarter race on Saturday and 0:10:30.200 --> 0:10:33.079 probable and Roadster installed as the co second choices at 0:10:33.080 --> 0:10:36.040 five to one. So Bafford, Bob Bafford's got the top 0:10:36.080 --> 0:10:39.720 three choices in what could be a twenty horse field. 0:10:39.720 --> 0:10:42.120 We will see how it shakes out, uh as we 0:10:42.400 --> 0:10:45.400 just talked about, and at the Westgate game winner is 0:10:45.440 --> 0:10:47.920 four to one, Roadster nine to two, and probably five 0:10:47.920 --> 0:10:49.800 to one. Then you have maximum security six to one. 0:10:50.240 --> 0:10:52.120 Tested his eight to one Coat of Honor at ten 0:10:52.200 --> 0:10:54.040 to one round and got the top six betting choices 0:10:54.240 --> 0:10:56.959 at Westgate before the last thing about Omaha Beach Marco. 0:10:57.480 --> 0:11:01.520 For folks who had bets on oh Mahaw Beach, how 0:11:01.559 --> 0:11:03.920 does this now shake out for them? Well, it depends 0:11:03.920 --> 0:11:07.040 if it was a pair of mutual bet early. Uh. 0:11:07.080 --> 0:11:09.760 They start taking bets early at the derby and stuff. 0:11:10.280 --> 0:11:12.600 You'll get those tickets back. But if you bet anything 0:11:12.640 --> 0:11:16.320 in the future books around town where you had your betting, 0:11:16.640 --> 0:11:18.920 they start these as a two year old, you know, 0:11:19.000 --> 0:11:20.880 late in the two year old season, they bring out 0:11:21.000 --> 0:11:23.440 the future book, the first one, and they keep updating 0:11:23.480 --> 0:11:27.920 it from the prep races. You're screwed horse didn't make it, 0:11:27.920 --> 0:11:30.160 because that's what you're doing with a future book. You're 0:11:30.280 --> 0:11:34.280 getting a bigger number two bet the future hoping that 0:11:34.440 --> 0:11:37.160 you know, they start maybe with a hundred horses, you know, 0:11:37.200 --> 0:11:39.160 and they keep whoodle in the field down a little bit. 0:11:39.880 --> 0:11:42.240 You're just it's a bad break. So I I love 0:11:42.360 --> 0:11:45.800 I lose my Omaha Future Omaha Beach futures play. I 0:11:45.840 --> 0:11:48.920 did get refunded on a specific Omaha Beach to win 0:11:48.960 --> 0:11:51.360 the Triple Crown prop because you know, I bet that 0:11:51.400 --> 0:11:54.640 every year my old crusade about triple crowns um and 0:11:54.679 --> 0:11:56.480 then I will tell you this, some some books and 0:11:56.520 --> 0:11:59.400 offer in far away places very slow to adjust on 0:11:59.440 --> 0:12:01.880 the news yet yesterday, so you there was a there 0:12:01.960 --> 0:12:04.439 was a good five to ten minute period which is 0:12:04.440 --> 0:12:08.040 an eternity where you could still make bets on the 0:12:08.040 --> 0:12:11.839 improbables and the game winners of the world at favorable odds. Yeah, 0:12:11.920 --> 0:12:15.199 and it just shows that, you know, somebody stows their 0:12:15.679 --> 0:12:18.960 toe in an NBA game and we know it immediately, 0:12:19.400 --> 0:12:22.000 but in the book's react but horse racing not the 0:12:22.040 --> 0:12:24.000 same run? How did how did that news come to 0:12:24.040 --> 0:12:25.480 you yesterday? Because I did a whole show I was 0:12:25.480 --> 0:12:27.160 talking about my show that I knew with j Rick. 0:12:27.200 --> 0:12:29.200 We did a whole Derby show and I'm omaha, beaching 0:12:29.280 --> 0:12:31.200 way through the show, and then eight minutes later that 0:12:31.200 --> 0:12:33.720 whole show was rendered. Mood at that point, yeah, you 0:12:33.760 --> 0:12:35.520 know something, same thing, And I was thinking about that 0:12:35.640 --> 0:12:37.120 very thing. I was on another I was on a 0:12:37.120 --> 0:12:39.760 friend's podcast, and all of a sudden they got done 0:12:40.120 --> 0:12:42.920 and I saw Tim Laydon from Sports Illustrated had broken 0:12:42.920 --> 0:12:46.000 the story, put the news up on Twitter. I immediately 0:12:46.040 --> 0:12:48.840 I was sending texts and calls out to Mike Smith 0:12:48.880 --> 0:12:51.440 and to Richard Mandela and to Bob Bafford and was 0:12:51.480 --> 0:12:54.000 talking to them or at least texting with them. And 0:12:54.040 --> 0:12:56.679 that was all in about a ten minute period. Uh 0:12:56.800 --> 0:13:00.280 So that was at around I guess I'm trying to 0:13:00.320 --> 0:13:02.199 do the math in my head. You're six o'clock last 0:13:02.320 --> 0:13:05.920 night our time. Uh So that was That's how it 0:13:06.000 --> 0:13:10.360 came down here fashioned way, by Twitter, the old fashioned way. 0:13:10.400 --> 0:13:11.920 All right, let's take a break. We're coming back. We're 0:13:11.920 --> 0:13:14.040 gonna bringing Peter fourn Is out for the Daily Racing Form. 0:13:14.240 --> 0:13:17.280 We will get all of your picks. How you're who's 0:13:17.280 --> 0:13:19.120 who's gonna win this according to you? We were got 0:13:19.160 --> 0:13:22.920 Ron's picked their moments ago. We'll talk about that more importantly. 0:13:22.960 --> 0:13:25.600 How you're gonna bet this entirely because I know the creativity, 0:13:26.160 --> 0:13:29.000 Marco that you show every year, and uh and Ron 0:13:29.080 --> 0:13:33.960 you as well. Always fascinating the Derby run for the Roses. 0:13:34.000 --> 0:13:36.640 The most exciting two minutes in sports right here on 0:13:36.679 --> 0:13:39.480 the Numbers Game at Visa Down Back to a Numbers 0:13:39.480 --> 0:13:42.640 Game with your host Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our 0:13:42.760 --> 0:13:45.160 visa in studios in Laws, Vegas. It is the Numbers 0:13:45.160 --> 0:13:47.360 Game right here at Vison VAS that's an information network, 0:13:47.400 --> 0:13:49.880 serious X and Channel two oh four. It's Gill Alexander, 0:13:49.920 --> 0:13:54.440 It's Marco D'Angelo. Excuse me, it's Ron Flatter. Everybody, and 0:13:54.520 --> 0:13:57.880 ladies and gentlemen on the phone from the Daily Racing 0:13:57.920 --> 0:14:03.000 Form is their old buddy Peter Forn Hello Peter, Hello Gil. 0:14:03.040 --> 0:14:05.440 But I didn't brief you know. Those those letters are 0:14:05.480 --> 0:14:08.080 no longer associated with me. I'm of the In the 0:14:08.120 --> 0:14:11.200 Money Players podcast these days. Like I said, of the 0:14:11.320 --> 0:14:15.199 In the Money Players Podcast these days at looms boldly 0:14:15.240 --> 0:14:17.520 one of the great horse racing calls of all time 0:14:17.559 --> 0:14:20.360 on Twitter, one of the great Twitter handles ever. Peter, 0:14:20.400 --> 0:14:23.280 what the same of the podcast? One more time? In 0:14:23.560 --> 0:14:26.200 the Money podcast. You can find the shows wherever you 0:14:26.240 --> 0:14:29.000 get your shows. iTunes are over at in the Money 0:14:29.040 --> 0:14:31.640 podcast dot Com. Lots of great Derby content over there. 0:14:31.760 --> 0:14:34.760 All right, uh so, Peter, we we were just doing 0:14:34.800 --> 0:14:38.440 some preliminary stuff obviously at Omaha Beaches being scratched yesterday, 0:14:38.560 --> 0:14:41.080 the news coming down and just sort of changing all 0:14:41.120 --> 0:14:43.680 of this. Uh and we're at the point where we 0:14:43.720 --> 0:14:45.200 have you in We're just gonna go on a round 0:14:45.240 --> 0:14:48.120 table here and give picks let us start with you, 0:14:48.320 --> 0:14:53.960 how are you betting Kentucky Derby. Well, the Omaha Beach 0:14:54.040 --> 0:14:56.760 scratch definitely threw me for a tizzy. We had to 0:14:56.760 --> 0:14:59.720 do a whole emergency podcast about it last night. He 0:14:59.880 --> 0:15:02.160 was definitely going to be thickly in my plans, but 0:15:02.200 --> 0:15:05.360 he was not my top pick. So I'm just gonna 0:15:05.400 --> 0:15:08.360 basically give you what I was gonna say when Omaha 0:15:08.400 --> 0:15:11.080 Beach was in the race, but just without his name mentioned, 0:15:11.200 --> 0:15:15.120 and basically now, for me, Tacitus is the horse that 0:15:15.240 --> 0:15:17.880 I want the most. One of my friends and other 0:15:17.920 --> 0:15:20.400 frequent guests on the show, who makes his own figures, 0:15:20.640 --> 0:15:23.360 had that would memorial faster than a lot of other 0:15:23.400 --> 0:15:25.480 figure makers. But it was also the way that the 0:15:25.520 --> 0:15:29.120 figures were earned. He really showed a lot of toughness, 0:15:29.120 --> 0:15:32.960 getting knocked all about having two major spots of trouble, 0:15:33.440 --> 0:15:37.040 ended up on his talent getting in a really good spot, 0:15:37.080 --> 0:15:40.680 and ended up on his class winning pretty well in 0:15:40.720 --> 0:15:43.200 the hands of a patient trainer and Bill Mont. I 0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:46.320 expect him to continue to come on and be spot 0:15:46.360 --> 0:15:48.640 on for this test. We've said it for years on 0:15:48.680 --> 0:15:51.840 the show. Nobody better than Bill Mott at having a 0:15:51.880 --> 0:15:54.320 horse with a target and getting them to that target 0:15:54.560 --> 0:15:57.840 in top form, tacit is for me, offers a lot 0:15:57.880 --> 0:16:00.000 of value. I imagine a little bit later we'll talk 0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:02.160 about some betting strategy, but for me, in terms of 0:16:02.200 --> 0:16:05.000 top pick, it's as simple as Tacitus. Alright, So Tacitus 0:16:05.040 --> 0:16:07.120 to win, Tacitus in the eight whole tend to one 0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:09.320 on the morning line, Ron, you're pick to win. I 0:16:09.320 --> 0:16:12.160 think you already tipped us off. Yeah, roadsters might pick 0:16:12.200 --> 0:16:14.040 to win, but that doesn't mean he's the only horse 0:16:14.080 --> 0:16:16.840 I'm going to include on top in my tickets. I'm 0:16:16.840 --> 0:16:18.920 going to leave game winner in, but I'm not gonna 0:16:19.120 --> 0:16:22.880 go crazy on that maximum security. I think he's a 0:16:22.920 --> 0:16:26.520 real value possibility at ten to one. He fits the 0:16:26.760 --> 0:16:30.160 pace scenario where he chase the pace, although there may 0:16:30.160 --> 0:16:32.280 not be a pace to chase in this race, but 0:16:32.320 --> 0:16:34.880 I like him out their code of honor. I think 0:16:35.160 --> 0:16:38.840 the slow pace of the Florida Derby compromised him. If 0:16:38.880 --> 0:16:41.960 it's an honest pace in this race, I think he 0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:45.800 could surprise a little bit. And Spinoff is a horse 0:16:45.840 --> 0:16:48.640 that also fills the bill, not only in the care 0:16:48.680 --> 0:16:51.960 and speed points, but also the final fractions. Theory we've 0:16:51.960 --> 0:16:55.920 mentioned this before. Horses that finished their final prep in 0:16:56.000 --> 0:16:59.320 either thirteen seconds or less for the final for Long 0:17:00.080 --> 0:17:02.800 or thirty eight seconds or less for the final three forlong. 0:17:03.360 --> 0:17:06.200 They've won all but two of the last twenty nine 0:17:06.240 --> 0:17:08.880 Kentucky Derby all but three, i should say, twenty six 0:17:09.240 --> 0:17:12.439 of twenty nine. And so that's a big dynamic for me. 0:17:12.520 --> 0:17:15.000 And spinoff is a long shot that fills that bill 0:17:15.040 --> 0:17:17.359 and then I'm gonna throw in just to hit the board. 0:17:18.000 --> 0:17:20.920 By my standards, there's been a big buzz horse around here. 0:17:21.240 --> 0:17:24.399 I think there might be something to that. Master Fencer 0:17:24.480 --> 0:17:25.840 is the one that's gonna be like, what in the 0:17:25.880 --> 0:17:28.119 world is he talking about. The horse comes in from Japan, 0:17:28.400 --> 0:17:31.120 a terrific closer. I think he gets better with distance. 0:17:31.400 --> 0:17:33.160 Don't think he'll win the race, but if he hits 0:17:33.160 --> 0:17:35.880 the board, there'll be a huge price on him. Give 0:17:35.920 --> 0:17:38.240 the final fractions theory once again, Ron, If you could 0:17:38.240 --> 0:17:41.120 and then all the horses that qualify this year, there's 0:17:41.240 --> 0:17:43.120 it's easier to list the ones that don't. And that's 0:17:43.160 --> 0:17:45.440 one of the problems with the final fractions theory this year. 0:17:45.800 --> 0:17:47.800 Part of it is the Florida Derby was so slow 0:17:47.880 --> 0:17:51.119 that almost every horse in that race closed strong, but 0:17:51.160 --> 0:17:54.479 the final fractions theory is the last twenty nine Kentucky 0:17:54.520 --> 0:17:58.240 Derby winners did so by either in their last prep 0:17:58.640 --> 0:18:01.720 finishing the last furlow in thirteen seconds or less for 0:18:01.880 --> 0:18:03.880 the last three for a long since thirty eight or less. 0:18:04.000 --> 0:18:06.719 What that does is tell you that they've got energy 0:18:06.760 --> 0:18:08.920 and speed left at the end of the race. As 0:18:09.000 --> 0:18:12.719 the races get longer and the Kentucky Derby is longer 0:18:12.760 --> 0:18:16.200 than they have ever run before. Marco, what you got? 0:18:16.280 --> 0:18:18.840 What are you doing? Well? I agree with the stuff 0:18:18.880 --> 0:18:22.959 everybody said. The one problem I have with maximum security. 0:18:23.000 --> 0:18:25.240 He's undefeated and we've this is the first time we've 0:18:25.280 --> 0:18:28.760 had a horse going into the Derby undefeated that nobody's 0:18:28.800 --> 0:18:31.359 really you know, has any hoopla around the horse. And 0:18:31.359 --> 0:18:33.960 it's because his first start. You could have bought them 0:18:34.080 --> 0:18:37.880 in a sixteen thousand dollar claimer geez okay, So they 0:18:37.920 --> 0:18:40.119 didn't realize what they were sitting on any race. His 0:18:40.200 --> 0:18:44.720 first three wins were very easy wins against much less competition. 0:18:45.040 --> 0:18:47.159 In the Florida Derby, which was his first test, and 0:18:47.240 --> 0:18:50.359 he went easy. I was actually at the Florida Derby, 0:18:50.720 --> 0:18:53.600 uh in person. We were sitting at a big table 0:18:53.800 --> 0:18:55.840 at the half pole. When they put up the forty 0:18:55.880 --> 0:18:58.480 eight and four, I said, if you have a closer 0:18:58.640 --> 0:19:01.040 rip your ticket up now. Is this guy just stole 0:19:01.040 --> 0:19:03.920 the race? And that's what they did with the slow fractions. 0:19:04.080 --> 0:19:06.760 He's not going to get that here. There's gonna be 0:19:06.800 --> 0:19:09.360 more speed. Plus there's gonna be more horses coming at 0:19:09.400 --> 0:19:11.720 him early. One of the horses that did come at 0:19:11.800 --> 0:19:15.199 him finished third in the Florida Derby, and Ron mentioned him, 0:19:15.200 --> 0:19:16.800 and I do like that horse. To hit the ticket 0:19:16.920 --> 0:19:20.119 is a price's code of honor to make up ground 0:19:20.119 --> 0:19:23.080 in the Florida Derby with the fractions they had, he 0:19:23.160 --> 0:19:25.720 ran a big race and I look for the tables 0:19:25.720 --> 0:19:27.720 to turn. But the horse I'm gonna go to to 0:19:27.760 --> 0:19:29.639 win the race, I think he's gonna get the best 0:19:29.720 --> 0:19:32.040 trip of all of the horses. Where he's sitting at 0:19:32.480 --> 0:19:35.720 is number five improbable. And the fact that they went 0:19:35.800 --> 0:19:39.639 from Van Dyke last start, they moved off of him 0:19:39.640 --> 0:19:42.159 and went to Ortiz. Van Dyke is a good up 0:19:42.200 --> 0:19:44.640 and coming jockey, had his best year ever last year, 0:19:44.640 --> 0:19:46.760 but he's not ready for this stage. This is a 0:19:46.840 --> 0:19:49.879 huge jockey move. I like it. This is the horse 0:19:49.960 --> 0:19:52.680 to win, and I got my looking at Lee horse 0:19:52.760 --> 0:19:55.720 for you if you remember from a couple. Yeah, and 0:19:55.720 --> 0:19:58.000 that's what made made our ticket with the big long 0:19:58.000 --> 0:20:02.760 shot your homework assignment. Go back and rewatch the bluegrass 0:20:03.000 --> 0:20:06.560 and only focus in on number eight. Win win win. 0:20:07.080 --> 0:20:09.639 Watch the trip that he got got bumped at the start, 0:20:09.720 --> 0:20:12.040 but more importantly, when he was making his big move, 0:20:12.800 --> 0:20:15.240 and that's the problem with closers. You run into traffic. 0:20:15.400 --> 0:20:17.280 He ran up on a wall of horses, and he 0:20:17.359 --> 0:20:20.040 ran up on him hard, so hard that the jockey 0:20:20.160 --> 0:20:22.840 literally jerked the horse's head up in the air when 0:20:22.880 --> 0:20:25.120 he grabbed the reins to slam the brakes got him 0:20:25.119 --> 0:20:28.399 restarted after losing all momentum and still come on to 0:20:28.480 --> 0:20:31.240 be second. So I think if he get an honest pace, 0:20:31.320 --> 0:20:34.920 look for win win win on your ticket to help 0:20:35.040 --> 0:20:38.800 light up the towboard. So so but you you think 0:20:38.840 --> 0:20:41.120 it probably wins, but win win win gets in there, 0:20:41.280 --> 0:20:43.399 I I will have him in here. That's my long shade. 0:20:43.480 --> 0:20:45.440 Or I always bet two horses in the derby because 0:20:45.480 --> 0:20:48.720 it's such a an inflated uh pool. Uh Im probably 0:20:48.760 --> 0:20:50.880 will be my horse across the board and the long 0:20:50.880 --> 0:20:52.800 shot will be win win win, win win win now 0:20:52.800 --> 0:20:56.920 in their hole with the Elmaha beach scratch them mentella board. 0:20:57.359 --> 0:20:59.800 So you and now listen, I've first of all you 0:20:59.840 --> 0:21:01.639 mat and something there that should be noted, which is 0:21:01.880 --> 0:21:03.640 we live in an era now where you can actually 0:21:03.680 --> 0:21:06.280 go to YouTube and watch previous races like imagine this 0:21:07.280 --> 0:21:10.240 years ago. The racing form is still the Bible, but 0:21:10.280 --> 0:21:13.240 the racing form doesn't show you or tell you everything. 0:21:13.240 --> 0:21:15.800 And I tell people all the time it's human nature. 0:21:15.840 --> 0:21:18.480 When you watch your horse race live, all you're looking 0:21:18.520 --> 0:21:20.560 at when you're watching that race is the horse you 0:21:20.640 --> 0:21:25.000 bet your horses ride, you know, rose colored glasses on. 0:21:25.200 --> 0:21:27.480 Go back and watch the race after with an open 0:21:27.520 --> 0:21:29.320 eye and watch all of the other horses and see 0:21:29.359 --> 0:21:32.720 the horses that had troubled trips. That's how you get 0:21:32.760 --> 0:21:35.760 horses at prices. Uh, everybody can read the form and 0:21:35.760 --> 0:21:37.920 see a horse that's one four in a row. It's 0:21:37.920 --> 0:21:41.439 finding those horses that are improving but had problems and 0:21:41.480 --> 0:21:44.520 had a good excuse of why. Okay, so let's get 0:21:44.520 --> 0:21:47.119 into them specifically. I don't maybe don't want to give 0:21:47.240 --> 0:21:50.359 an entire specifics, but your general strategy, because all right, 0:21:50.440 --> 0:21:52.439 we know who who who you got winning. We know 0:21:52.480 --> 0:21:55.040 who you got in there, but are you are you exacting? 0:21:55.080 --> 0:21:56.960 Are you wheeling? What are you doing here? I'm playing 0:21:57.000 --> 0:21:59.720 exact as and tr effectors. And what I like to 0:21:59.720 --> 0:22:02.080 do the tr effecta is I do what is called 0:22:02.080 --> 0:22:04.919 a pyramid. I'll put four horses on top in the 0:22:04.920 --> 0:22:07.040 first slot, so any one of those four can win. 0:22:07.280 --> 0:22:09.800 I'll put five in the second slot, which would be 0:22:09.840 --> 0:22:12.680 the same four, and then one new horse, and then 0:22:12.680 --> 0:22:15.960 I'll put six or seven underneath. Now in the Derby, 0:22:16.000 --> 0:22:17.879 I might put a couple of extra horses on the 0:22:17.880 --> 0:22:20.359 bottom end of that. Because we know that something can 0:22:20.440 --> 0:22:22.960 run third and run a big price. You can invest 0:22:23.040 --> 0:22:25.520 more money in the Derby because you're gonna get a 0:22:25.520 --> 0:22:28.960 bigger return just because of the inflated prize pool. The 0:22:29.040 --> 0:22:31.440 purse of all of the as we like to refer 0:22:31.560 --> 0:22:35.600 to sit there. It's an official Derby show with the 0:22:35.640 --> 0:22:38.199 dead money. All right, Peter, save question for you, then, 0:22:38.200 --> 0:22:41.920 how are you betting this? I'm really interested in the 0:22:41.920 --> 0:22:45.160 Oaks Derby double this year. Other years we've talked about 0:22:45.200 --> 0:22:47.560 the double going from the turf race into the Derby. 0:22:47.640 --> 0:22:50.159 This year I like the Oaks Derby Double because I'm 0:22:50.200 --> 0:22:53.520 going to take a stand against the big favorite, Bella 0:22:53.600 --> 0:22:56.480 Fina in the Kentucky Oaks. She may prove me wrong, 0:22:56.600 --> 0:22:59.280 but I haven't loved the recent track work, and she 0:22:59.359 --> 0:23:01.760 did have her loan sort of poor start of her 0:23:01.800 --> 0:23:05.199 career over the Churchill stripped. And there's a couple in 0:23:05.200 --> 0:23:07.600 there that I like to try to get live to 0:23:07.720 --> 0:23:10.399 Tacitus and maybe a couple of long shots in the Derby. 0:23:10.600 --> 0:23:12.240 So the two for me and the Yoaks are Floora 0:23:12.320 --> 0:23:16.080 de Lamar, Bob Baffert, the Dolphin trainee. I don't believe 0:23:16.119 --> 0:23:18.639 we're going to get the giant price that's listed in 0:23:18.640 --> 0:23:21.040 the USA Morning Line, but this is one who's always 0:23:21.119 --> 0:23:24.440 meant to have talent, has this test written sort of 0:23:24.480 --> 0:23:27.119 all over her in terms of her pedigree and everything 0:23:27.160 --> 0:23:29.159 that was said about her before she even stepped on 0:23:29.160 --> 0:23:31.359 the race course in the afternoon. The other one I 0:23:31.400 --> 0:23:35.120 like is Champagne Anyone for Ian Wilkes. Wilkes is known 0:23:35.200 --> 0:23:38.199 for bringing his horses along slowly, and I think this 0:23:38.240 --> 0:23:40.479 one just looks to have a really nice set up. 0:23:40.520 --> 0:23:42.800 I think the pace will be fast. I think Champagne 0:23:42.840 --> 0:23:45.320 Anyone has a chance to get the money in the yolks. 0:23:45.520 --> 0:23:47.760 So hopefully one of those two will win and set 0:23:47.800 --> 0:23:50.919 me up for a really nice ticket to Tacitus. But 0:23:51.000 --> 0:23:52.840 in a bet like this, if I'm taking on an 0:23:52.840 --> 0:23:56.200 odds on favorite, I have the opportunity to maybe mix 0:23:56.240 --> 0:23:57.800 in a few more. And I like a lot of 0:23:57.840 --> 0:24:00.560 the long shots that were mentioned by the guys, specifically 0:24:00.760 --> 0:24:03.480 that point about Code of Honor. He has just really 0:24:03.520 --> 0:24:07.679 had not a whole lot go right this year, especially 0:24:07.760 --> 0:24:09.840 not go right in terms of him to produce a 0:24:09.880 --> 0:24:13.000 really fast final time. I think he might get okay 0:24:13.040 --> 0:24:16.199 conditions to really show up with a big effort in 0:24:16.240 --> 0:24:18.240 the Kentucky Derby. I would want to have some of 0:24:18.240 --> 0:24:21.680 those doubles to him. I think Spinoff is another one 0:24:21.800 --> 0:24:25.040 who's a very interesting long shot. Of the bafforts, I mean, 0:24:25.080 --> 0:24:27.400 they all make sense. I don't want to bet them all. 0:24:27.560 --> 0:24:30.080 I might bet a little to game Winner, just because 0:24:30.080 --> 0:24:32.200 I think he's suited for the mile and a quarter. 0:24:32.280 --> 0:24:34.399 But the main play for me is going to be 0:24:34.520 --> 0:24:38.560 Oaks Derby doubles, Lord ne Lamar and Champagne, anyone to Tacitus. 0:24:38.800 --> 0:24:41.040 And then I'll mix in a little bit of Spinoff 0:24:41.280 --> 0:24:43.800 and Code of Honor and maybe a little game winner 0:24:43.800 --> 0:24:45.240 in those. But I think that's the pool for me 0:24:45.320 --> 0:24:47.040 this year. I like it. You have Oaks Thoughts Marco 0:24:47.080 --> 0:24:49.720 at all. I haven't broke down my final thought there 0:24:49.720 --> 0:24:52.120 on the Oaks, Okay, Ron, I may have. I may 0:24:52.160 --> 0:24:55.560 have buried the headline here, Ron, because you're there at Louisville. 0:24:55.760 --> 0:24:58.280 There's obviously in clement weather expected. At one point I 0:24:58.280 --> 0:25:00.919 heard it was nine chance of precipit station and the 0:25:01.000 --> 0:25:03.600 thought was that if Omaha Beach was in this, that 0:25:03.600 --> 0:25:06.679 that would help that horse more than any other. Is 0:25:06.720 --> 0:25:08.679 there a horse now that gets help? And first of all, 0:25:08.720 --> 0:25:11.040 what is the forecast? Let's start there. And if it 0:25:11.119 --> 0:25:13.600 is bad, who does this help? I feel like you 0:25:13.600 --> 0:25:16.119 should ask Peter, because he took the exact horses I 0:25:16.119 --> 0:25:18.919 was gonna name in the Oaks. I was saying, God, 0:25:19.760 --> 0:25:23.600 I swear it was like it was I we don't 0:25:23.600 --> 0:25:24.960 think I like on the Derby, but we do on 0:25:24.960 --> 0:25:27.920 the Oaks absolutely. And Bafford was touting Florida Lamar to 0:25:27.960 --> 0:25:30.240 be back in December, so we'll we'll go from there. 0:25:30.960 --> 0:25:33.200 The weather forecast for tomorrow if you read the National 0:25:33.240 --> 0:25:36.840 Weather Service, or I should say Saturday chance of rain 0:25:37.040 --> 0:25:40.159 if you read the weather channel chance of rain. The 0:25:40.280 --> 0:25:42.359 question is how much rain, and that's gonna be the 0:25:42.359 --> 0:25:45.320 big if they couldn't even get that right last year 0:25:45.320 --> 0:25:48.520 on race day, the weather forecasters. So if it's if 0:25:48.560 --> 0:25:51.040 it's the steady shower that they're telling us will happen, 0:25:51.119 --> 0:25:54.720 then the track will be muddy to sloppy. Uh. Here's 0:25:54.760 --> 0:25:58.080 the thing, Gil and presuming high cost stays in the race, 0:25:58.640 --> 0:26:01.639 Fifteen of the any horses in the Derby field this 0:26:01.760 --> 0:26:05.920 year have experience on wet tracks on off tracks, So 0:26:06.200 --> 0:26:08.879 it's it's not like you can really narrow it down. 0:26:09.280 --> 0:26:11.520 I think it goes back to either you stay with 0:26:11.560 --> 0:26:15.080 your best, may the best horse win, or maybe you 0:26:15.200 --> 0:26:19.520 lean more toward front runners uh and pace chasers. But 0:26:19.880 --> 0:26:21.960 then again, that's kind of what the Derby has become. 0:26:22.040 --> 0:26:25.680 I don't know that you handicapped a lot differently. If 0:26:25.800 --> 0:26:29.160 Omaha Beach were in there, absolutely he'd have been pounded 0:26:29.200 --> 0:26:31.280 as the favorite, But now he's not, and we go 0:26:31.400 --> 0:26:33.199 forward with a lot of horses that have been on 0:26:33.200 --> 0:26:35.640 wet tracks. You agree with that. I agree that as 0:26:35.640 --> 0:26:38.640 far as the closers go, if it is a really muddy, 0:26:38.720 --> 0:26:41.640 sloppy and you know, the MUD's getting thrown up. Generally, 0:26:41.720 --> 0:26:44.520 that doesn't favor the closers because they don't like to 0:26:44.520 --> 0:26:47.560 see that, you know, the mud thrown interfaces horses on 0:26:47.600 --> 0:26:51.120 the front end. If it's a hard rein and they're able, 0:26:51.280 --> 0:26:53.399 you know, to scrape the tracks some and you're not 0:26:53.480 --> 0:26:56.560 getting all of that throwing up, then you know, really 0:26:56.760 --> 0:26:58.879 it doesn't change my handicapping. But you're gonna have to 0:26:58.880 --> 0:27:01.440 watch that and see how it is where you watching. 0:27:01.480 --> 0:27:02.879 By the way, you're at the south point again as 0:27:02.920 --> 0:27:05.399 we always are. Yes, I will be the biggest, biggest 0:27:05.400 --> 0:27:07.879 derby party in town. I'm I'm hitching onto your wagon 0:27:07.920 --> 0:27:12.640 and you're gonna tell me how about this? That's right? 0:27:13.320 --> 0:27:16.600 And won't go rogue on this time? Do you hear that? Run? 0:27:17.200 --> 0:27:20.760 Listen to all right? The last thing and we'll get 0:27:20.800 --> 0:27:23.600 you guys back together. Before the Belmont is particularly if 0:27:23.600 --> 0:27:26.280 there's a triple crown that's uh still at stake and 0:27:26.280 --> 0:27:28.280 and it sounds like there might not be based on 0:27:28.600 --> 0:27:31.800 everything I'm hearing, but I usually asked Felika nailed this 0:27:31.800 --> 0:27:35.119 a couple of years ago with Tappert. I asked, before 0:27:35.119 --> 0:27:38.359 the derby, Uh, the Belmont, which is the longest of 0:27:38.400 --> 0:27:40.880 the three Triple Crown races. If you're looking at this field, 0:27:40.920 --> 0:27:43.840 if you're thinking about the horses that might jump in 0:27:44.320 --> 0:27:47.560 at some point, Um, is there a horse that you're 0:27:47.600 --> 0:27:52.920 thinking about already about for the Belmont come June. Well, 0:27:52.960 --> 0:27:56.280 people's first thought always is when it's a bigger race, 0:27:56.359 --> 0:27:58.200 longer distance, that they're going to look for the stone 0:27:58.200 --> 0:28:01.200 Cold closer. And that's not the case all the time, 0:28:01.240 --> 0:28:04.120 because usually you get a slower pace in the race 0:28:04.240 --> 0:28:06.719 because nobody wants to be that first horse that comes up. 0:28:07.359 --> 0:28:09.919 But if it is a fast pace and if he 0:28:10.119 --> 0:28:13.359 doesn't scratch here and everything's okay, Hiko is probably one 0:28:13.400 --> 0:28:17.280 of the best Stone Cold closers that we have. Um 0:28:17.520 --> 0:28:20.080 Country House is a good closer as well. And of 0:28:20.119 --> 0:28:22.640 course my horse I gave you as a long shot, win, win, 0:28:22.720 --> 0:28:26.560 win is a horse that likes to close. Okay, So 0:28:27.680 --> 0:28:29.520 you've got it improbable, you got win win, win, and 0:28:29.560 --> 0:28:31.879 all your bets. That's that's the headline. I'm gonna have 0:28:31.920 --> 0:28:35.760 all three of Bafford's horses in my combinations, but for 0:28:35.880 --> 0:28:38.880 price horses, I will have tasket this, and I will 0:28:38.920 --> 0:28:42.160 have code of Honor included in that that top you know, 0:28:42.320 --> 0:28:45.040 five horses that I'm king in exact as and dries. Okay, 0:28:45.080 --> 0:28:48.280 and Peter, you are, you're daily doubling with the oaks. 0:28:48.320 --> 0:28:53.240 You've stolen flatters horses, You've bitten everything he likes. But 0:28:53.400 --> 0:28:55.880 you're you listen to a show. I could be self 0:28:55.920 --> 0:28:59.560 consciously plagiarizing and this could be a George Harrison situation 0:28:59.640 --> 0:29:02.320 here all throwing an old rock and roll reference for wrong. 0:29:02.840 --> 0:29:05.400 That's okay, that's our demo today. It's horse racing and 0:29:05.400 --> 0:29:07.960 boxing today, for God's sakes. But you're you're fixed. You're 0:29:08.000 --> 0:29:11.120 fixated on Tacitus as well. That that's the headline for you. 0:29:11.160 --> 0:29:14.360 Acidus is he's my number one pick with a bullet. 0:29:14.400 --> 0:29:16.520 You guys talked about derby parties. I won't be able 0:29:16.560 --> 0:29:18.680 to check out any of the Vegas derby parties this year, 0:29:18.760 --> 0:29:21.600 but I am throwing one in Manhattan. I know visa 0:29:21.720 --> 0:29:24.240 as a lot of listeners in the New York areas, 0:29:24.320 --> 0:29:27.000 if people talk about it all the time, and for 0:29:27.040 --> 0:29:29.040 those who are listening who are gonna be in the area, 0:29:29.160 --> 0:29:31.640 I'm hosting a derby party, no cover, no minimum, at 0:29:31.720 --> 0:29:35.760 Treadwell Park, west On Street. Come in. Always love to 0:29:35.800 --> 0:29:38.560 hear from people who hear me from my shows or 0:29:38.560 --> 0:29:40.320 when I've been fortunate enough to be on with Ron 0:29:40.400 --> 0:29:42.400 or on with you Gil. Be great to meet some 0:29:42.560 --> 0:29:44.920 listeners in person on Derby Day as well, and the 0:29:45.000 --> 0:29:47.280 Numbers game broadcast on Game Plus there in the New 0:29:47.360 --> 0:29:50.640 York City, New Jersey area as well. Bleeding over from Ontario. Uh, 0:29:50.640 --> 0:29:52.280 and Peter in the name of the podcast what Ward Time, 0:29:53.760 --> 0:29:57.720 I'm the in the Money Players podcast, Okay, and we'll 0:29:57.720 --> 0:29:59.600 put this in podcast for him on beating the book 0:30:00.160 --> 0:30:02.880 as well. Ron, you you got roadster, but your other 0:30:02.920 --> 0:30:05.760 headline on this is what I would say as far 0:30:05.760 --> 0:30:08.920 as the Belmont is concerned, don't ignore cutting humor depending 0:30:08.920 --> 0:30:11.040 on what he does here in the Derby. Won the 0:30:11.080 --> 0:30:13.360 Sunland Derby and is a long shot here but trained 0:30:13.360 --> 0:30:15.680 by Todd Fletcher, who has been known to use the 0:30:15.720 --> 0:30:18.360 Derby as a bella prep for the Belmont. And I 0:30:18.360 --> 0:30:20.960 agree when win win doesn't have to be far back. 0:30:21.040 --> 0:30:23.160 You can't be far back in the Belmont because even 0:30:23.160 --> 0:30:25.320 though it's the biggest track, it's the shortest home stretch. 0:30:25.680 --> 0:30:28.480 So uh, those are just the two names I'll throw 0:30:28.520 --> 0:30:30.880 out there, and uh, you know, we'll see who else 0:30:30.960 --> 0:30:33.320 might come into the race that we don't know that's 0:30:33.760 --> 0:30:36.520 going to come in the next five weeks and change. 0:30:36.600 --> 0:30:39.800 And as far as podcast is concerned, Uh, the buzz 0:30:39.840 --> 0:30:43.640 horse around here, the smart money horse be by my standards. 0:30:43.760 --> 0:30:46.640 His trainer Brett Calhoun will be on the podcast tomorrow. 0:30:46.800 --> 0:30:48.920 Zoe Cadman will help us preview it. We had to 0:30:48.960 --> 0:30:51.840 kind of go from scratch with the Omaha Beach situation, 0:30:51.880 --> 0:30:54.200 and so that's our guest list for tomorrow. And of 0:30:54.200 --> 0:30:57.800 course we have the Handicappers podcast up already with Vinnie Malulo, 0:30:57.840 --> 0:31:01.160 Patrick McGuigan, Dave Tooley and Annie a Vello and all 0:31:01.200 --> 0:31:05.160 that at VCN dot com, slash podcast or Apple, Google 0:31:05.240 --> 0:31:09.360 Stitcher or Gills Toaster. It's called the Ron Flatter. By 0:31:09.360 --> 0:31:11.400 the way, it's called the Ron Flatter Racing Pod. Ron. 0:31:11.440 --> 0:31:14.880 You've probably start with that the title of the podcast itself. Um, 0:31:15.040 --> 0:31:19.000 it's creative, should be always dynamic, alright. Last thing then, guys, 0:31:19.040 --> 0:31:21.240 real quick, as we gotta run. Uh, if there's a 0:31:21.280 --> 0:31:23.800 horse in the derby that you didn't mention at all, 0:31:24.120 --> 0:31:27.320 that is the most likely to torpedo everything you just said, 0:31:27.680 --> 0:31:31.120 What is that horse? What's the horse? You fear? Maximum 0:31:31.160 --> 0:31:34.920 security ends up being a real horse. That's the horse 0:31:34.960 --> 0:31:37.840 that will hurt me. So that that's the horse you 0:31:37.880 --> 0:31:41.520 could be cursing. Come Come six fifty East or three 0:31:41.520 --> 0:31:45.400 fifty pm Pacific on Saturday. Same question, Peter, what's the 0:31:45.400 --> 0:31:49.480 horse that that could just ruin all your hopes? Well, 0:31:49.520 --> 0:31:52.440 I fear improbable, but I could probably spend very little 0:31:52.480 --> 0:31:56.160 money to just cover maybe an exacta or something improbable 0:31:56.280 --> 0:31:59.960 over Tacitus to try to save the bacon a little bit. 0:32:00.280 --> 0:32:02.480 But that's one that I'm mildly against, who I could 0:32:02.560 --> 0:32:06.120 easily see turning my day a little salur. All right, Ron, 0:32:06.200 --> 0:32:10.280 same question the bluegrass winner of a coma. I didn't 0:32:10.320 --> 0:32:13.200 respect the race, but I could respect the horse if 0:32:13.240 --> 0:32:16.239 he blows up my ticket. All right, Ron Flatter from 0:32:16.320 --> 0:32:19.720 Visa and Peter for Natal and Marco D'Angel. Marco, thank 0:32:19.720 --> 0:32:21.920 you for being in man. I appreciate that problem. Thank 0:32:21.960 --> 0:32:24.719 you all very much. Kentucky Derby round Table. We'll talk 0:32:24.760 --> 0:32:28.440 Derby with Felika Chris Felika from The Bear or from 0:32:28.480 --> 0:32:31.280 the I should say Stanford Stephen The Bear podcast from 0:32:31.440 --> 0:32:36.960 ESPN dot com tomorrow about rather run for the raises. 0:32:37.360 --> 0:32:41.160 Support for today's podcast, as always, comes from Bookmaker dot 0:32:41.240 --> 0:32:45.800 eu a key cog, the keyest of cogs. There's such 0:32:45.800 --> 0:32:49.520 a phrase in my betting arsenal. It should be yours too. 0:32:49.560 --> 0:32:51.880 They've been an industry leader for close to thirty years. 0:32:52.240 --> 0:32:56.800 Pro players consider them a must because of the golden trifecta. 0:32:57.120 --> 0:33:00.000 My phrase not there's their first to post dots. They 0:32:59.840 --> 0:33:02.719 take the highest limits and they pride themselves on never 0:33:02.800 --> 0:33:05.560 having kicked out a winning player. You have no idea 0:33:06.040 --> 0:33:08.840 how rare a commodity all of those things are, especially 0:33:08.920 --> 0:33:11.400 the last one. They don't kick people out period. That 0:33:11.440 --> 0:33:14.920 should be the main thing, and they'll pay it every time. 0:33:15.200 --> 0:33:19.520 Bookmakers a high volume sports book. Yeah, sophisticated players, recreational players, 0:33:19.600 --> 0:33:22.160 large ones as well. Welcome their motto where the lines 0:33:22.200 --> 0:33:25.560 originate results because chance started. The sports book at which 0:33:25.640 --> 0:33:28.680 you've been betting follows their lines. And again right now 0:33:28.880 --> 0:33:31.640 our special offer if you visit Bookmaker dot eu slash 0:33:31.680 --> 0:33:34.800 gill that's Bookmaker dot eu slash g I l L, 0:33:35.320 --> 0:33:37.920 you can claim an exclusive welcome bonus of up to 0:33:37.920 --> 0:33:41.440 three hundred dollars that's Bookmaker dot E slash gill. Join 0:33:41.520 --> 0:33:43.400 and claim you're welcome onus of up to three hundred 0:33:43.400 --> 0:33:47.720 dollars right now, bookmaker dot e slash Gill. I promise 0:33:47.800 --> 0:33:51.000 you you will have no regrets. Down back to a 0:33:51.080 --> 0:33:54.479 numbers game with your host, Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from 0:33:54.480 --> 0:33:57.440 our vis In studios in Laws, Vegas, the numbers Game 0:33:57.520 --> 0:34:00.000 right here at Basa the Vegas Stats of Information Networks 0:34:00.000 --> 0:34:02.640 Serious x up Channel twoh for. I'm hard pressed to 0:34:02.720 --> 0:34:06.560 name anyone more associated with a sport than this gentleman 0:34:06.680 --> 0:34:09.680 right here. He is a Hall of fame boxing analyst 0:34:10.120 --> 0:34:13.040 for showtime television, as well as an author or stage performer, 0:34:13.440 --> 0:34:17.640 recording artist, speaker, renaissance man, and one of the original 0:34:17.680 --> 0:34:19.839 hosts here at Visa. Let us not forget that, ladies 0:34:19.840 --> 0:34:23.120 and gentlemen, it's a true gentleman. Al Bernstein on the 0:34:23.120 --> 0:34:25.959 show this morning. Good morning to you. Al's all nice 0:34:26.000 --> 0:34:27.880 to see you. Nice to talk to you. I mean 0:34:28.080 --> 0:34:29.480 nice to talk to you. Nice to see you. I 0:34:29.480 --> 0:34:32.799 hope to see you soon. Al, What are you keeping 0:34:32.840 --> 0:34:35.640 your days occupied with these days? Beyond boxing? I know 0:34:35.719 --> 0:34:39.799 you're you're always into something. Well, you know obviously I'm 0:34:40.360 --> 0:34:44.200 all the showtime fights. Uh, and I'm gonna do fight series. 0:34:44.239 --> 0:34:47.439 I'm starting up as well. That I'm announcing, but I'm 0:34:47.480 --> 0:34:50.120 also doing You mentioned the music I'm gonna be. Uh. 0:34:50.440 --> 0:34:53.040 I'm still doing a lot of music performing and I'm 0:34:53.080 --> 0:34:58.560 performing on MA at the Tuscany Hotel and Casino. Um uh, 0:34:58.760 --> 0:35:01.440 doing my music shows. So do that. It keeps me 0:35:01.480 --> 0:35:04.600 off the streets, you know, keeps you off the streets. Aw, 0:35:04.719 --> 0:35:06.560 that's all. That's all we're concerned about. Like we can 0:35:06.640 --> 0:35:08.840 only keep Bernstein off the streets. This world would be 0:35:08.960 --> 0:35:11.000 Do not want me out there? You do not want 0:35:11.040 --> 0:35:14.480 to be out there causing Bayham or anything like that. Terrible, 0:35:14.520 --> 0:35:16.440 That's right. We'll glad you mentioned the thing because most 0:35:16.440 --> 0:35:17.960 people don't know that you that you do sing and 0:35:18.000 --> 0:35:20.160 so because you never mentioned that on the boxing telecasts 0:35:20.160 --> 0:35:24.960 obviously not to my knowledge. You don't anyway, but yeah, 0:35:25.520 --> 0:35:27.439 I do. You know, I've been doing it since early 0:35:27.520 --> 0:35:30.200 eighties when I started doing it at the Caesar's Palace, 0:35:30.719 --> 0:35:34.800 before the Haggler Hearns fight and before for Handling Leonard, 0:35:34.840 --> 0:35:37.520 those kind of fights. Um, I would do engagements at 0:35:37.560 --> 0:35:40.799 the Sizar's Palace all the time, and then um, you know, 0:35:40.840 --> 0:35:43.440 it was fun ante morph into a different show and 0:35:43.480 --> 0:35:46.319 then that was like more of a boxing party thing 0:35:46.360 --> 0:35:48.239 where it showed clips and everything and I'm back to 0:35:48.239 --> 0:35:51.839 the music. So it's fun and uh, I ain't doing well. 0:35:51.880 --> 0:35:53.480 You can follow Al by the way on Twitter at 0:35:53.520 --> 0:35:57.799 al Bernstein. Um, you mentioned Haggler Leonard, a famous middleweight 0:35:57.960 --> 0:36:01.440 fight of of years gone by. His anniversary just passed 0:36:01.880 --> 0:36:05.680 a couple of weeks back. Um, so this weekend you 0:36:05.840 --> 0:36:10.919 got yourself a unification middleweight title. Canelo Alvarez fifty one 0:36:11.600 --> 0:36:15.960 one and two with thirty five knockouts. Obviously, people most 0:36:16.000 --> 0:36:19.480 famously remember the draw, controversial draw against Triple G and 0:36:19.560 --> 0:36:23.560 the controversial win against Triple G against Daniel Jacobs, who 0:36:23.719 --> 0:36:26.839 fought Triple G very well a couple of years ago himself. Uh, 0:36:26.920 --> 0:36:30.279 he is thirty four two and oh twenty nine knockouts, 0:36:30.600 --> 0:36:32.480 has a bit of a height advantage, has a bit 0:36:32.520 --> 0:36:34.920 of a reach advantage. I guess I want to start 0:36:35.000 --> 0:36:37.080 with the judges out, which is sad that I want 0:36:37.080 --> 0:36:39.160 to start there, but I guess I do. If I'm 0:36:39.160 --> 0:36:41.840 not mistaken. These are the same three judges as for 0:36:42.080 --> 0:36:44.440 as were the case in the last Triple G Cannello fight. 0:36:44.520 --> 0:36:50.720 Is that right? Uh, they're experienced spots, their experience judges 0:36:51.000 --> 0:36:54.080 and Uh. One hopes that they will do a good 0:36:54.160 --> 0:36:57.560 job with this. Um. You know, these fights are UM, 0:36:58.000 --> 0:37:02.560 this is gonna be a fight like fifth Excuse, like 0:37:02.760 --> 0:37:07.080 the like the Triple G site that I think we're bound. 0:37:07.120 --> 0:37:08.919 They have a lot of close rounds in this site 0:37:09.000 --> 0:37:11.760 and I'm bound to have uh if it goes to distance, 0:37:11.840 --> 0:37:15.640 which many people think it will. UM, I think could 0:37:16.040 --> 0:37:18.440 could play a role. And you know, there's a perception 0:37:18.520 --> 0:37:24.279 that Canello al has gotten, has done, has gotten a 0:37:24.440 --> 0:37:27.880 couple of decisions that maybe he couldn't shouldn't have gotten, 0:37:28.239 --> 0:37:32.040 um and so and and there's a perception that he 0:37:32.239 --> 0:37:37.080 is the golden boy. Uh, he's promoted by the Golden Boy. 0:37:38.760 --> 0:37:40.880 But but but you know, well that's what you know. 0:37:41.080 --> 0:37:43.520 I hate to start there, but that's what work. If 0:37:43.600 --> 0:37:46.600 I any inclination, I have to bet on Jacobs. And 0:37:46.640 --> 0:37:47.960 first of all, I think my strategy is I'm just 0:37:47.960 --> 0:37:51.560 gonna wait. Because the public loves betting underdogs. I'm just 0:37:51.600 --> 0:37:53.080 gonna wait for them to bet it and wait for 0:37:53.160 --> 0:37:55.560 Canelo's price to get muted. And then I think I'm 0:37:55.600 --> 0:37:58.120 gonna bet Canelo at a muted price. That's the strategy 0:37:58.120 --> 0:38:02.719 anyway for me, but any nation I have to bet Jacobs. 0:38:02.920 --> 0:38:05.719 I always think about those judges, and I do buy 0:38:05.800 --> 0:38:09.400 into the fact that to beat Canelo here in Las Vegas, 0:38:10.200 --> 0:38:12.120 and I don't want to say you gotta knock him out, 0:38:12.200 --> 0:38:15.920 but you really gotta out point him. And that's my 0:38:16.160 --> 0:38:20.239 trouble here thinking about any kind of bet on Jacobs. Yeah, 0:38:20.320 --> 0:38:24.680 that's the perception, and and there's some there's some you know, 0:38:25.200 --> 0:38:27.200 and and some of the things that have happened in 0:38:27.320 --> 0:38:32.719 life back that up. Uh And so the idea, UH 0:38:32.960 --> 0:38:36.520 that you could win a decision of betting on Danny 0:38:36.640 --> 0:38:42.160 Jacobs does kind of way in your mind if you're um, 0:38:42.520 --> 0:38:45.800 I do think that Danny Jacobs has the chance in 0:38:45.920 --> 0:38:51.239 this fight to uh to to if he if he 0:38:51.440 --> 0:38:54.120 uses his height and his reach advantage as well as 0:38:54.200 --> 0:39:00.399 he can and UH is able to keep Cannella at bay, 0:39:00.520 --> 0:39:03.080 there's a chance he could box well enough to to 0:39:03.200 --> 0:39:06.840 win those rounds convincingly enough to get the judges. There's 0:39:06.880 --> 0:39:10.000 a chance that that could happen. But again, you know, 0:39:11.239 --> 0:39:12.920 it might not be something you want to you want 0:39:12.960 --> 0:39:14.719 to wager your money on. How do you think it 0:39:14.800 --> 0:39:16.680 plays out? Though? If you if you could picture the 0:39:16.760 --> 0:39:19.080 script of this fight, what do you what do you 0:39:19.160 --> 0:39:22.080 believe will happen here? I think I think it is 0:39:22.560 --> 0:39:26.719 Daniel Jacobs wants to use the site and reach UM 0:39:27.600 --> 0:39:33.160 and box effectively but land power punches. UM. He still 0:39:33.200 --> 0:39:37.279 wants to land with some uh, with some power and 0:39:37.400 --> 0:39:40.719 he is a good puncher. He's not a UH, He's 0:39:40.719 --> 0:39:44.560 not just a boxer. UM. And for Canello, the question 0:39:44.960 --> 0:39:49.000 is going to be when he fought Arisondi Lara, who 0:39:49.120 --> 0:39:52.560 is the ultimate boxer UM, some years ago, he had 0:39:53.120 --> 0:39:57.040 boxers give him some issues. UM. He doesn't always have 0:39:57.160 --> 0:40:00.920 the greatest footwork. Isn't always you know, he's not that 0:40:01.200 --> 0:40:04.920 quick on his feet and so sometimes boors give him trouble. 0:40:05.280 --> 0:40:11.200 The problem is that I resigned to Laura box him, 0:40:11.280 --> 0:40:13.960 but didn't again, didn't get the decision, and part of 0:40:14.000 --> 0:40:16.640 it was Laura's fault because he wasn't aggressive enough. But 0:40:17.760 --> 0:40:21.640 that's where Daniel Jacobs has quite a conundrum because Canello 0:40:21.680 --> 0:40:25.400 will be coming forward this site and can he box 0:40:25.440 --> 0:40:28.799 effectively enough and still give the impression that he's done 0:40:28.920 --> 0:40:34.680 enough offensively? UM, I don't. The interesting thing about the 0:40:34.800 --> 0:40:37.000 site and the big question is whether either man has 0:40:37.040 --> 0:40:39.840 his ability to hurt the other man Cannello has shown 0:40:40.000 --> 0:40:44.239 an amazing chin. Um. We now realize that based on 0:40:44.320 --> 0:40:48.239 the goof can fights and other fights that that he's had, 0:40:48.360 --> 0:40:52.480 that that you know, Canelo Alvas can take a punch. Um. 0:40:52.640 --> 0:40:55.520 So I don't know if the question of whether Jacobson 0:40:55.560 --> 0:40:58.799 and her name is is is in the air. Uh. 0:40:58.880 --> 0:41:01.960 And I don't know if can will not knock out Jacobs. 0:41:02.000 --> 0:41:03.840 So I expect this to go to this since and 0:41:03.920 --> 0:41:06.799 I expected to be a close fight talking to Al 0:41:06.880 --> 0:41:11.239 Bernstein Boxing broadcast legend again, no one more associated with 0:41:11.320 --> 0:41:14.640 his sport uh than Al is in the sport of boxing. 0:41:15.080 --> 0:41:17.400 You know, I look at this, there's a clause here, Alan, 0:41:17.400 --> 0:41:19.759 and you tell me how I mean, I guess these 0:41:19.800 --> 0:41:23.480 clauses exist, But you tell me how regular these are? 0:41:24.040 --> 0:41:27.439 Where they're gonna weigh again the morning of the fight 0:41:27.520 --> 0:41:32.319 at eight am, and for every pound that Jacobs exceeds 0:41:32.520 --> 0:41:36.680 one hundred and seventy he will be fined five hundred 0:41:36.920 --> 0:41:40.839 thousand dollars a pound. How How regular is that? How 0:41:40.920 --> 0:41:43.359 typical is that? Well? Every once in a while those 0:41:43.440 --> 0:41:47.799 kind of clauses are put into uh to fight. Um 0:41:49.160 --> 0:41:52.400 just wants out to me because Uh, it's not that 0:41:52.480 --> 0:41:56.719 Dannis Jacobs, he doesn't have a big history of of 0:41:57.080 --> 0:42:00.719 of coming in overweight to begin with, Um, it is 0:42:00.760 --> 0:42:04.640 almost you know, he's more of the natural middleweight than Canella. 0:42:04.719 --> 0:42:07.080 But since its fights you fought at middleweight that you 0:42:07.160 --> 0:42:11.759 know that clauses to me is an odd one. Um. 0:42:12.480 --> 0:42:15.480 But Jacobs doesn't blow up too much in fights, but 0:42:15.680 --> 0:42:18.399 that but I think that is really not They often 0:42:18.560 --> 0:42:22.200 have clauses like that. In this case, that seems odd 0:42:22.280 --> 0:42:26.239 to me. And it's a further indication that, um, with 0:42:26.800 --> 0:42:31.600 the promotion and the the zone, the broadcasters and with everything, um, 0:42:31.960 --> 0:42:38.839 you know, I think the Canello, um, the playing field 0:42:38.960 --> 0:42:42.920 is tilted a little bit, just a little bit. Yeah, Um, 0:42:43.239 --> 0:42:45.400 And I guess the question is, and I there's nobody 0:42:45.400 --> 0:42:47.200 who loves boxing history more than I do. And I 0:42:47.280 --> 0:42:50.200 know obviously you're the same way. But let's let's try 0:42:50.239 --> 0:42:52.520 to put this in historical perspective, like if I'm talking 0:42:52.560 --> 0:42:55.279 to a generation of folks who grew up on some 0:42:55.360 --> 0:42:58.279 of the fights you mentioned, the Haggler Hagler hurt excuse me, 0:42:58.800 --> 0:43:01.360 Leonard Hern's one, which still remains my favorite fight of 0:43:01.400 --> 0:43:06.600 all time. Obviously, Yeah, the brutality of of Haggler, Hearns, 0:43:06.680 --> 0:43:10.400 and then there was Leonard Haggler some years later. But 0:43:10.480 --> 0:43:12.440 if we think about all of those fights, and I 0:43:12.520 --> 0:43:15.560 know the later one was middleweight, but the others were welter. 0:43:16.040 --> 0:43:18.760 We throw Duran in there. That group of fighters versus 0:43:18.960 --> 0:43:21.080 a fight that we're going to see like this on Saturday. 0:43:21.440 --> 0:43:24.520 Is this amateur hour compared to those guys? In your opinion? 0:43:24.640 --> 0:43:28.800 Is this comparable? What is this? No, it's that was 0:43:28.880 --> 0:43:31.840 an era. The nineteen eighties was was the most special 0:43:31.920 --> 0:43:35.000 ear boxing it's had maybe in its whole history. When 0:43:35.040 --> 0:43:38.000 I was and I was a young man in my thirties, 0:43:38.160 --> 0:43:40.320 when I was fortunate enough to be able to announce 0:43:40.400 --> 0:43:43.560 many of those fights, you know, tremendous break from me 0:43:43.680 --> 0:43:46.759 because I started in broadcast age thirty and here it was, 0:43:47.080 --> 0:43:49.000 you know, four or five, three or four years later, 0:43:49.160 --> 0:43:52.080 I'm announced some of those kind of fights of staging. 0:43:53.000 --> 0:43:56.800 But um that and I asked people like your Clancy 0:43:56.880 --> 0:43:59.360 and other people that new eras before me, you know, 0:44:00.239 --> 0:44:02.840 I said, is this as good as as it seems 0:44:02.880 --> 0:44:05.279 to me? And they said absolutely. It's one of the 0:44:05.360 --> 0:44:09.920 best decades ever. So um, that decade stands on its 0:44:09.960 --> 0:44:13.960 own for that eight for that weight group and everybody 0:44:15.080 --> 0:44:18.000 what this is. So it's very hard for any fights 0:44:18.080 --> 0:44:21.080 to to match up to those, but this, this is 0:44:21.640 --> 0:44:25.600 we have. The Glafkan Canelo fights were exceptionally well thought. 0:44:25.760 --> 0:44:28.560 It was very very good. Uh, and this will be 0:44:28.640 --> 0:44:32.760 a very good fight. Um. You know, Uh, it's stuff 0:44:32.760 --> 0:44:35.680 to compare it to the eighties because that was you know, 0:44:35.840 --> 0:44:39.279 on a level all of its own. But this is 0:44:39.440 --> 0:44:41.160 this should be a very good fight. These are very 0:44:41.200 --> 0:44:44.120 good fighters. And uh and and and you know I 0:44:44.320 --> 0:44:47.759 talked about Jackson to box and it almost gives the 0:44:47.760 --> 0:44:49.960 impression what's the dead in the fight. But I don't 0:44:49.960 --> 0:44:52.080 know that, you know, I think we're likely to see 0:44:52.080 --> 0:44:54.040 a lot of actions, just like we did in the 0:44:54.200 --> 0:44:57.239 Glafkan Canova fights. Uh. And if I if we look 0:44:57.280 --> 0:45:00.400 beyond this fight into the boxing landscape, and you're opinion, 0:45:00.520 --> 0:45:03.400 who is who is the most exciting boxing boxer out there? 0:45:03.440 --> 0:45:05.279 Is that Errol Spence Jr. Is that the name that 0:45:05.640 --> 0:45:09.160 leaves to mind for you? Yeah, Erroll Spences is a 0:45:09.320 --> 0:45:12.799 very exciting fighter because he's he's you know, we'd see 0:45:13.480 --> 0:45:15.839 he just beat Mikey Garcio. He came up and wait 0:45:15.920 --> 0:45:17.600 to fight him and One of the things about that 0:45:17.680 --> 0:45:22.279 fight that was surprising was Mike Garcie is a brilland fighter. Um, 0:45:22.440 --> 0:45:27.279 But people thought Errol Spence would win primarily because there's 0:45:27.320 --> 0:45:31.120 his strength and his size against six fighters coming up. 0:45:31.160 --> 0:45:37.440 And wait, he actually showed astonishing um boxing technique and 0:45:37.719 --> 0:45:40.160 we knew he had it, but he hadn't. But he's 0:45:40.200 --> 0:45:41.719 the kind of fighter that wants to go in and 0:45:41.920 --> 0:45:46.479 you know, he's looking for knockouts. UM. So he's he's 0:45:46.560 --> 0:45:49.239 the full package. And and I was slow to come 0:45:49.280 --> 0:45:51.520 around to Erroll Spence. You know, I thought always good, 0:45:51.640 --> 0:45:56.520 you know, but I wasn't labeling him, you know, a superstar. 0:45:56.880 --> 0:45:59.040 He is, he is going to be that, and and 0:45:59.360 --> 0:46:02.120 we're hoping it he can now get a series of 0:46:02.200 --> 0:46:05.440 good fights culminating with the fight with Terence Crawford. Um, 0:46:05.640 --> 0:46:09.399 that would you know would excite the fans. It's sure would, 0:46:09.640 --> 0:46:12.160 all right, So al I appreciate it. Listen. So, so 0:46:12.400 --> 0:46:15.040 do you like my betting strategy here? I'm just gonna wait, wait, wait, 0:46:15.120 --> 0:46:17.560 and then bet canello. If you if you're making up bet, 0:46:17.640 --> 0:46:21.279 what are you doing? Well? If if I was, if 0:46:21.320 --> 0:46:23.440 I'd been making the bet before, and I don't know 0:46:23.680 --> 0:46:29.000 you know better than mere Where where uh Jacobs started 0:46:29.040 --> 0:46:32.120 out as an underdog? Um, and I don't know where. 0:46:32.200 --> 0:46:35.120 What are the oddvent now minus four fifty right now 0:46:35.320 --> 0:46:38.920 thereabouts on Canello plus three fifty on Danny Danny Jacobs 0:46:39.040 --> 0:46:44.960 Daniel Jacobs. So Jacobs is a plus three he's getting 0:46:45.680 --> 0:46:48.880 He's the underdog, right, He's the underdog, that's right. And 0:46:48.960 --> 0:46:52.280 as as with every underdog, people will bet the underdog 0:46:52.560 --> 0:46:56.520 pretty much up until fight time. Yeah, they will. If 0:46:56.600 --> 0:46:59.359 I had gotten there earlier, when the odds were even 0:46:59.440 --> 0:47:02.960 better Jacobs, I would have bet Jacobs because I think 0:47:03.000 --> 0:47:05.600 there would have been value there. Now you're probably in 0:47:05.680 --> 0:47:09.920 the right spot because you can probably get it right 0:47:10.080 --> 0:47:12.800 when right around fight time you'll get better odds. And 0:47:12.880 --> 0:47:16.239 if you believe in Canelo in this fight, um, then 0:47:16.920 --> 0:47:19.200 it's better to do that and then you know, and 0:47:19.280 --> 0:47:23.800 then get the odds because uh, um, he probably deserves 0:47:23.840 --> 0:47:25.560 to be a little bit more of a favorite than you. 0:47:25.760 --> 0:47:28.920 He'll go off at Yeah, so you know, but and 0:47:29.080 --> 0:47:31.520 and far be it from me to tell you about 0:47:31.760 --> 0:47:35.680 betting on a sporting event. But but you know, I mean, 0:47:35.800 --> 0:47:38.040 this is one of these things that listen when it's boxing. Alan, 0:47:38.080 --> 0:47:40.200 you know this, and I you know, I'm not I'm 0:47:40.239 --> 0:47:43.480 not breaking any news here. Betting on boxing has this 0:47:43.920 --> 0:47:45.640 you know, the thing that's always the voice in the 0:47:45.719 --> 0:47:48.880 back of your head, which is like this could anything 0:47:48.920 --> 0:47:50.880 could happen here with these judges, right, so and so 0:47:51.040 --> 0:47:55.400 my things. Yeah, that's true, and it makes it different 0:47:55.400 --> 0:47:58.160 than other sports. You know, other sports, crazy things can 0:47:58.400 --> 0:48:02.800 happen that you can lose, you up that um of 0:48:03.320 --> 0:48:07.160 crazy turn of the ball, you know, some weird call, 0:48:07.280 --> 0:48:11.480 who knows what else. But in boxing, you know, it's 0:48:11.600 --> 0:48:13.720 one of the few sports city when it goes to distance, 0:48:13.760 --> 0:48:16.279 you're still not you don't know who won, right, you 0:48:16.400 --> 0:48:19.839 can't tell. So of course that's a that's a that's 0:48:19.880 --> 0:48:24.480 a something that you've got a factor into what you do. Unfortunately, 0:48:24.640 --> 0:48:27.000 and you know when you get these benches that are 0:48:27.520 --> 0:48:32.240 close calls, um, you know you swipt those out. Al Bernstein, 0:48:32.880 --> 0:48:34.680 the legend that is Al Bernston again singing at the 0:48:34.719 --> 0:48:39.120 Tuscany what's the date on that I'll be there from seven, 0:48:40.400 --> 0:48:42.960 will come out and have some fun. Well, and I'm 0:48:43.000 --> 0:48:45.319 gonna be giving some of my books away and love 0:48:45.400 --> 0:48:47.080 of a good time, all right, Al, thank you so 0:48:47.239 --> 0:48:50.359 much for waking up this morning. I appreciate it, very 0:48:50.440 --> 0:48:52.319 nice to chat with you. You do a great job 0:48:52.520 --> 0:49:02.000 and continue to chat. Thank you about about that the 0:49:02.320 --> 0:49:05.760 bat back back of the boat.