Speaker 1: Check it down Man Now Down Man Thursday Morning, make
Speaker 1: stuck in Giving the Book podcasts Kill Alexander. You know
Speaker 1: it's that time of year. The one and Run for
Speaker 1: the Roses, the Kentucky Derby, first leg of the Triple
Speaker 1: Crown at Churchill Downs this Saturday, six fifty pm Eastern
Speaker 1: three pm Pacific. We get into it with Marco Dangelo
Speaker 1: or old megapod friend Marco doing double duty here on
Speaker 1: the podcast. Ron Flatter from Visen will be on the
Speaker 1: phone as well as Will Peter for nital our old
Speaker 1: daily racing forum now doing his own podcast. He will
Speaker 1: be on the show to break down the derby as well.
Speaker 1: We'll talk a little Kentucky oaks in the process. To
Speaker 1: also throw in at back end al Bernstein Al Bernstein
Speaker 1: Hall of Fame boxing announcer to talk about the middleweight
Speaker 1: unification title about between Canelo Alvarez and Danny Jacobs. That's
Speaker 1: on the show as well. Today. Enjoy horse racing and
Speaker 1: boxing parting like it's nineteen eight. On today's Beating the
Speaker 1: Book podcast, a numbers game with your host Gil Alexander,
Speaker 1: broadcasting live from our visa in studios in Las Vegas.
Speaker 1: Back on the numbers game here at Alexander. Thanks for
Speaker 1: tuning in series sex semp Channel two four. By the way,
Speaker 1: I should mention I'm on the Raptors tonight, I didn't
Speaker 1: make that clear. I'm on the Veloci Raptors who I
Speaker 1: mentioned earlier. Uh Veloco raptors indigenous to the t dot
Speaker 1: the six up there in Toronto. Clearly now they named
Speaker 1: it after because the popularity of the movie Jurassic Park
Speaker 1: at that time. They named their team the Raptors, and
Speaker 1: now they've got to reconsider that, like more than a
Speaker 1: quarter century later, they really do. They are reconsidering it
Speaker 1: because they're like, you know, and I made the comparisons
Speaker 1: like it's like if Las Vegas got a team and
Speaker 1: named their team after a Game of Thrones character, and
Speaker 1: then like quarter century from now, they're like, what is this?
Speaker 1: What is this all about? All right, let's talk the
Speaker 1: one hundred and forty five run for the Roses and
Speaker 1: ladies and gentlemen. A man who saw the previous one
Speaker 1: forty four each and every one of them run for
Speaker 1: the Roses live and in person. It's Marco to Angelo,
Speaker 1: Good morning, Marco. That joke never gets doesn't never, never,
Speaker 1: not funny for those who have listened to the podcast
Speaker 1: for many years. Thanks for being here, man, No problems
Speaker 1: like Christmas for me. Kentucky Derby Week. How many of
Speaker 1: these do you do today? I am NonStop until six
Speaker 1: o'clock today. I got something going. Yeah. Well, um, we're
Speaker 1: happy to have you here. Thanks for joining in and
Speaker 1: of course from Louisville straight live. I believe we have
Speaker 1: them on them on the phone or on Skype? What
Speaker 1: do we got him on here? Audio? Okay? Either way
Speaker 1: on audio, it's our friend Ron Flatter. Good morning, Ron. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I didn't want to scare you by having to see
Speaker 1: me this morning, because you know, I just I am
Speaker 1: not looking becoming of a video stream the quality of
Speaker 1: yours skill. Thank you. I appreciate that, all right. So
Speaker 1: let me just start here because it's the obvious place
Speaker 1: to start, obviously. The morning line favorite was Omaha Beach
Speaker 1: four to one yesterday in I mean and listening horse
Speaker 1: racing context. Stunning news scratched when Trent Richard Mandela confirmed
Speaker 1: to Churchill Downs that Omaha Beach had an entrapped epic glottis. Now,
Speaker 1: let's not get into the details of that other than
Speaker 1: it's a it's a breathing issue and the horse will
Speaker 1: be fine. It's just that the horse is gonna be
Speaker 1: out for two or three weeks. So the whole Triple
Speaker 1: crownd thing is done for Omaha Beach. But this, obviously, Marco,
Speaker 1: sends things into a completely different spiral than we thought.
Speaker 1: We were completely an animal than we thought we were
Speaker 1: getting yesterday. Uh, the first question I usually asked on it. Well,
Speaker 1: first of all, before I get to that, I was thinking,
Speaker 1: this sounds I remember something like this happening, and I
Speaker 1: remember I'll have another in twelve before the Belmont Stakes.
Speaker 1: I'll have another. Had a shout at the Triple Crown.
Speaker 1: It was the day before that, I'll have another. Head
Speaker 1: tendon nies couldn't go. They took him out, and then
Speaker 1: you know it's that one was a more serious injury.
Speaker 1: We're here, like you said, this is going to be
Speaker 1: just a two to three week procedure. Um, it's a
Speaker 1: si surgery for him. I've had it done to my horses.
Speaker 1: They come back generally good, as you know, the same
Speaker 1: as they were. Yeah. Um, sadly on the timing, though
Speaker 1: not for for the owner who obviously and that team
Speaker 1: of Omaha Beach. Um Ron was there a derby where
Speaker 1: this happened before two were a morning line favorite had
Speaker 1: to get scratched at the last minute, so to speak, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I want revenge. Was a few years ago, was scratched
Speaker 1: the morning of the race, and so that was a
Speaker 1: prominent one. Jeff Mullens trained that horse. This has happened
Speaker 1: three times now to Mike Smith. It happened five years
Speaker 1: ago with a horse, and then another time back I
Speaker 1: think it was two thousand or two thousand one, he
Speaker 1: had a horse coming off the training track and uh,
Speaker 1: he got kicked by the stable pony and knocked him
Speaker 1: out of the race. So this is the third time
Speaker 1: it's happened to Mike Smith. And remember Mike made the
Speaker 1: decision to take his talents to Omaha Beach, so you
Speaker 1: know he did without a ride. And it's I did ask.
Speaker 1: In fact, Bob Bafford walked by here just minutes ago
Speaker 1: before we came on. I did ask Bob yesterday if
Speaker 1: he considered taking Mike back onto Roadster, because that was
Speaker 1: Mike's plan b or his alternative when he chose Omaha Beach,
Speaker 1: and Bob said no, He's sticking with Florence shru. I
Speaker 1: did ask Mike by Jexton. We were going back and
Speaker 1: forth and even at a phone conversation last night. Uh,
Speaker 1: if you know, as they say, as an afterthought, I
Speaker 1: asked him, does anybody going after you maybe to be
Speaker 1: a substitute writer? And I never heard back from him,
Speaker 1: So read into that what you will. You know, he
Speaker 1: might have had dinner plans too, So that being the case. Uh,
Speaker 1: Mike Smith being without a ride is certainly significant, and
Speaker 1: so there's that to consider. Although I will remind you
Speaker 1: Mike has only two for twenty four in Kentucky Derby's.
Speaker 1: But was the board justified last year? Correct? Yeah, sometimes
Speaker 1: the horse matters. Sometimes the horse matters, that's right. Uh
Speaker 1: So Mike Smith without amount, what a turn of events there.
Speaker 1: So the question, guys that I asked to start every
Speaker 1: one of these in Marco. You'll remember these from previous
Speaker 1: uh shows on the podcast in here at a numbers game,
Speaker 1: at Visa and live as always if I came to
Speaker 1: you from the future, let's start beyond the derby. First,
Speaker 1: I came to you from the future and I said, hey, guys,
Speaker 1: there was a triple crown winner this year. Who was
Speaker 1: that horse? And I'm guessing the answer would have been
Speaker 1: Omaha Beach if if you had to answer it, if
Speaker 1: I had to answer it, yes, I would have said
Speaker 1: Omahawk Beach. But I was doing a podcast yesterday actually
Speaker 1: as the news was breaking, and we were actually talking
Speaker 1: about the Triple Crown, and I was saying, there's not
Speaker 1: gonna be a Triple Crown winner this year, even even
Speaker 1: with Omaha Beach, and I thought there was actually value
Speaker 1: yesterday was around town minus five fifty. You could get
Speaker 1: it on the no. And the reason for that, gil
Speaker 1: is there's not a superstar in this crop. Very competitive,
Speaker 1: but more importantly moving forward to the Preakness this year,
Speaker 1: more than any other year, there's gonna be some really
Speaker 1: good horses waiting in the second and third leg because
Speaker 1: a horse like Bourbon War is a very good horse
Speaker 1: that I feel was better than some of the horses
Speaker 1: that are in the Derby but just missed out on
Speaker 1: the points. Instagram didn't get in. So you have that
Speaker 1: element that's gonna help I think still one of the
Speaker 1: two legs I see and so there and there is
Speaker 1: no justified in this fielder maybe even better stated, there
Speaker 1: is no American Pharaoh in this field that is that dominant.
Speaker 1: But if I but if I'm holding you to it,
Speaker 1: and I said, listen, there was a triple crown winner,
Speaker 1: which of these horses had the best shot? Um, you
Speaker 1: don't even want to answer it. I would go with Roadster.
Speaker 1: Uh wow, this is a horse that you know is
Speaker 1: lightly raced, only has two starts this year. And if
Speaker 1: you notice Bafford has three horses this year, and you
Speaker 1: remember going into last year's Derby, all of the talk,
Speaker 1: the question on Justify was does he have enough of
Speaker 1: a foundation? And you know he didn't race it too,
Speaker 1: and we know that no horse had done that since
Speaker 1: way back when Apollo did it. You know, it seemed
Speaker 1: like yesterday for me. Everyone loves the Apollo stat and
Speaker 1: but he he broke that myth last year. Well, look
Speaker 1: at his three entries this year. They all have two starts,
Speaker 1: where you know, generally a lot of trainers like to
Speaker 1: have the three going into the Derby. All of his
Speaker 1: only have two starts this season. Talking about him probable
Speaker 1: Roadster and game winner. On the same question for you,
Speaker 1: just sort of a hypothetical, if if I came to
Speaker 1: you from the future and there is a triple crown Winner,
Speaker 1: what horse would that be? Well, I am going to
Speaker 1: agree that Roadster is my pick for the Kentucky Derby,
Speaker 1: so therefore he would be my pick for a triple crown.
Speaker 1: But I actually think Game Winner might be better suited
Speaker 1: in that regard. The only question I have with game
Speaker 1: Winner is whether he has piqued whether his precocity at
Speaker 1: age two has been caught up with by the ever
Speaker 1: growing three year olds that are in the rest of
Speaker 1: the field. But Roadster, his only real loss was last
Speaker 1: year in the del Mar Futurity. He finished third and
Speaker 1: it was discovered he had a throat issue. So while
Speaker 1: we're talking throat issues, uh year, here was one with Roadster.
Speaker 1: He had a successful operation on it and has won
Speaker 1: his two races since, both with Mike Smith. And now
Speaker 1: you have Florence shru a board. By the way, I'm
Speaker 1: not sure. I don't want to bury a sub lead
Speaker 1: that's been going on here. But there's another horse that
Speaker 1: may have to scratch out of the race, and that
Speaker 1: is the closer high Call. The number eleven horse trained
Speaker 1: by Kiera McLaughlin developed a foot abscess and that abcess
Speaker 1: does not clear up in the next twenty four hours.
Speaker 1: He will be scratched from the race at nine o'clock
Speaker 1: Eastern time tomorrow morning, So you could have a field
Speaker 1: of nineteen and where that is significant for the horses
Speaker 1: that we've just mentioned. If High Call is out the
Speaker 1: number eleven horse and Omaha Beach already out, the horse
Speaker 1: that will move in and get stuck in the fourteen
Speaker 1: hole that spot that is a bottleneck. That's just inviting
Speaker 1: the fifteen and the sixteen to come over and slam
Speaker 1: into him. Game winner. The horse that would come out
Speaker 1: of the fifteen hole his stablemate Roadster. So you think
Speaker 1: that's gonna throw a little intrigue into the race of
Speaker 1: High Call scratches out? That interesting? Uh So that makes
Speaker 1: sense because I was, you know, the thing I was
Speaker 1: saying yesterday was I was when Omaha Beach got scratched
Speaker 1: that moved Roadster from from the seventeen everybody saying, oh, no,
Speaker 1: one's everyone from seventeen to six, and I'm like, oh, now,
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, Roadster can win it. Because I
Speaker 1: found that to be a little bit of a fake
Speaker 1: out on that stat Some stats not as meaningful as others,
Speaker 1: but I like your angle on that run. So yeah,
Speaker 1: and by the way American Pharaoh drew in I think
Speaker 1: they're only eighteen in the race when he won in fifteen,
Speaker 1: he got scratched inward and I think he came out
Speaker 1: of me. He may have been in the seventeen, but
Speaker 1: he drew inward as a result. So yeah, I think
Speaker 1: I think that's a bogus stab because let's remember go
Speaker 1: back in time in the Kentucky Derby, there weren't always
Speaker 1: seventeen horses in the race. That's just a recent that's
Speaker 1: a recent trend. Absolutely so with Omaha Beach out of
Speaker 1: the running, so Churchill Down's oddsmaker Mike Metalia revised the
Speaker 1: morning line. Game Winner now the nine to two favorite
Speaker 1: for the mile and a quarter race on Saturday and
Speaker 1: probable and Roadster installed as the co second choices at
Speaker 1: five to one. So Bafford, Bob Bafford's got the top
Speaker 1: three choices in what could be a twenty horse field.
Speaker 1: We will see how it shakes out, uh as we
Speaker 1: just talked about, and at the Westgate game winner is
Speaker 1: four to one, Roadster nine to two, and probably five
Speaker 1: to one. Then you have maximum security six to one.
Speaker 1: Tested his eight to one Coat of Honor at ten
Speaker 1: to one round and got the top six betting choices
Speaker 1: at Westgate before the last thing about Omaha Beach Marco.
Speaker 1: For folks who had bets on oh Mahaw Beach, how
Speaker 1: does this now shake out for them? Well, it depends
Speaker 1: if it was a pair of mutual bet early. Uh.
Speaker 1: They start taking bets early at the derby and stuff.
Speaker 1: You'll get those tickets back. But if you bet anything
Speaker 1: in the future books around town where you had your betting,
Speaker 1: they start these as a two year old, you know,
Speaker 1: late in the two year old season, they bring out
Speaker 1: the future book, the first one, and they keep updating
Speaker 1: it from the prep races. You're screwed horse didn't make it,
Speaker 1: because that's what you're doing with a future book. You're
Speaker 1: getting a bigger number two bet the future hoping that
Speaker 1: you know, they start maybe with a hundred horses, you know,
Speaker 1: and they keep whoodle in the field down a little bit.
Speaker 1: You're just it's a bad break. So I I love
Speaker 1: I lose my Omaha Future Omaha Beach futures play. I
Speaker 1: did get refunded on a specific Omaha Beach to win
Speaker 1: the Triple Crown prop because you know, I bet that
Speaker 1: every year my old crusade about triple crowns um and
Speaker 1: then I will tell you this, some some books and
Speaker 1: offer in far away places very slow to adjust on
Speaker 1: the news yet yesterday, so you there was a there
Speaker 1: was a good five to ten minute period which is
Speaker 1: an eternity where you could still make bets on the
Speaker 1: improbables and the game winners of the world at favorable odds. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and it just shows that, you know, somebody stows their
Speaker 1: toe in an NBA game and we know it immediately,
Speaker 1: but in the book's react but horse racing not the
Speaker 1: same run? How did how did that news come to
Speaker 1: you yesterday? Because I did a whole show I was
Speaker 1: talking about my show that I knew with j Rick.
Speaker 1: We did a whole Derby show and I'm omaha, beaching
Speaker 1: way through the show, and then eight minutes later that
Speaker 1: whole show was rendered. Mood at that point, yeah, you
Speaker 1: know something, same thing, And I was thinking about that
Speaker 1: very thing. I was on another I was on a
Speaker 1: friend's podcast, and all of a sudden they got done
Speaker 1: and I saw Tim Laydon from Sports Illustrated had broken
Speaker 1: the story, put the news up on Twitter. I immediately
Speaker 1: I was sending texts and calls out to Mike Smith
Speaker 1: and to Richard Mandela and to Bob Bafford and was
Speaker 1: talking to them or at least texting with them. And
Speaker 1: that was all in about a ten minute period. Uh
Speaker 1: So that was at around I guess I'm trying to
Speaker 1: do the math in my head. You're six o'clock last
Speaker 1: night our time. Uh So that was That's how it
Speaker 1: came down here fashioned way, by Twitter, the old fashioned way.
Speaker 1: All right, let's take a break. We're coming back. We're
Speaker 1: gonna bringing Peter fourn Is out for the Daily Racing Form.
Speaker 1: We will get all of your picks. How you're who's
Speaker 1: who's gonna win this according to you? We were got
Speaker 1: Ron's picked their moments ago. We'll talk about that more importantly.
Speaker 1: How you're gonna bet this entirely because I know the creativity,
Speaker 1: Marco that you show every year, and uh and Ron
Speaker 1: you as well. Always fascinating the Derby run for the Roses.
Speaker 1: The most exciting two minutes in sports right here on
Speaker 1: the Numbers Game at Visa Down Back to a Numbers
Speaker 1: Game with your host Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our
Speaker 1: visa in studios in Laws, Vegas. It is the Numbers
Speaker 1: Game right here at Vison VAS that's an information network,
Speaker 1: serious X and Channel two oh four. It's Gill Alexander,
Speaker 1: It's Marco D'Angelo. Excuse me, it's Ron Flatter. Everybody, and
Speaker 1: ladies and gentlemen on the phone from the Daily Racing
Speaker 1: Form is their old buddy Peter Forn Hello Peter, Hello Gil.
Speaker 1: But I didn't brief you know. Those those letters are
Speaker 1: no longer associated with me. I'm of the In the
Speaker 1: Money Players podcast these days. Like I said, of the
Speaker 1: In the Money Players Podcast these days at looms boldly
Speaker 1: one of the great horse racing calls of all time
Speaker 1: on Twitter, one of the great Twitter handles ever. Peter,
Speaker 1: what the same of the podcast? One more time? In
Speaker 1: the Money podcast. You can find the shows wherever you
Speaker 1: get your shows. iTunes are over at in the Money
Speaker 1: podcast dot Com. Lots of great Derby content over there.
Speaker 1: All right, uh so, Peter, we we were just doing
Speaker 1: some preliminary stuff obviously at Omaha Beaches being scratched yesterday,
Speaker 1: the news coming down and just sort of changing all
Speaker 1: of this. Uh and we're at the point where we
Speaker 1: have you in We're just gonna go on a round
Speaker 1: table here and give picks let us start with you,
Speaker 1: how are you betting Kentucky Derby. Well, the Omaha Beach
Speaker 1: scratch definitely threw me for a tizzy. We had to
Speaker 1: do a whole emergency podcast about it last night. He
Speaker 1: was definitely going to be thickly in my plans, but
Speaker 1: he was not my top pick. So I'm just gonna
Speaker 1: basically give you what I was gonna say when Omaha
Speaker 1: Beach was in the race, but just without his name mentioned,
Speaker 1: and basically now, for me, Tacitus is the horse that
Speaker 1: I want the most. One of my friends and other
Speaker 1: frequent guests on the show, who makes his own figures,
Speaker 1: had that would memorial faster than a lot of other
Speaker 1: figure makers. But it was also the way that the
Speaker 1: figures were earned. He really showed a lot of toughness,
Speaker 1: getting knocked all about having two major spots of trouble,
Speaker 1: ended up on his talent getting in a really good spot,
Speaker 1: and ended up on his class winning pretty well in
Speaker 1: the hands of a patient trainer and Bill Mont. I
Speaker 1: expect him to continue to come on and be spot
Speaker 1: on for this test. We've said it for years on
Speaker 1: the show. Nobody better than Bill Mott at having a
Speaker 1: horse with a target and getting them to that target
Speaker 1: in top form, tacit is for me, offers a lot
Speaker 1: of value. I imagine a little bit later we'll talk
Speaker 1: about some betting strategy, but for me, in terms of
Speaker 1: top pick, it's as simple as Tacitus. Alright, So Tacitus
Speaker 1: to win, Tacitus in the eight whole tend to one
Speaker 1: on the morning line, Ron, you're pick to win. I
Speaker 1: think you already tipped us off. Yeah, roadsters might pick
Speaker 1: to win, but that doesn't mean he's the only horse
Speaker 1: I'm going to include on top in my tickets. I'm
Speaker 1: going to leave game winner in, but I'm not gonna
Speaker 1: go crazy on that maximum security. I think he's a
Speaker 1: real value possibility at ten to one. He fits the
Speaker 1: pace scenario where he chase the pace, although there may
Speaker 1: not be a pace to chase in this race, but
Speaker 1: I like him out their code of honor. I think
Speaker 1: the slow pace of the Florida Derby compromised him. If
Speaker 1: it's an honest pace in this race, I think he
Speaker 1: could surprise a little bit. And Spinoff is a horse
Speaker 1: that also fills the bill, not only in the care
Speaker 1: and speed points, but also the final fractions. Theory we've
Speaker 1: mentioned this before. Horses that finished their final prep in
Speaker 1: either thirteen seconds or less for the final for Long
Speaker 1: or thirty eight seconds or less for the final three forlong.
Speaker 1: They've won all but two of the last twenty nine
Speaker 1: Kentucky Derby all but three, i should say, twenty six
Speaker 1: of twenty nine. And so that's a big dynamic for me.
Speaker 1: And spinoff is a long shot that fills that bill
Speaker 1: and then I'm gonna throw in just to hit the board.
Speaker 1: By my standards, there's been a big buzz horse around here.
Speaker 1: I think there might be something to that. Master Fencer
Speaker 1: is the one that's gonna be like, what in the
Speaker 1: world is he talking about. The horse comes in from Japan,
Speaker 1: a terrific closer. I think he gets better with distance.
Speaker 1: Don't think he'll win the race, but if he hits
Speaker 1: the board, there'll be a huge price on him. Give
Speaker 1: the final fractions theory once again, Ron, If you could
Speaker 1: and then all the horses that qualify this year, there's
Speaker 1: it's easier to list the ones that don't. And that's
Speaker 1: one of the problems with the final fractions theory this year.
Speaker 1: Part of it is the Florida Derby was so slow
Speaker 1: that almost every horse in that race closed strong, but
Speaker 1: the final fractions theory is the last twenty nine Kentucky
Speaker 1: Derby winners did so by either in their last prep
Speaker 1: finishing the last furlow in thirteen seconds or less for
Speaker 1: the last three for a long since thirty eight or less.
Speaker 1: What that does is tell you that they've got energy
Speaker 1: and speed left at the end of the race. As
Speaker 1: the races get longer and the Kentucky Derby is longer
Speaker 1: than they have ever run before. Marco, what you got?
Speaker 1: What are you doing? Well? I agree with the stuff
Speaker 1: everybody said. The one problem I have with maximum security.
Speaker 1: He's undefeated and we've this is the first time we've
Speaker 1: had a horse going into the Derby undefeated that nobody's
Speaker 1: really you know, has any hoopla around the horse. And
Speaker 1: it's because his first start. You could have bought them
Speaker 1: in a sixteen thousand dollar claimer geez okay, So they
Speaker 1: didn't realize what they were sitting on any race. His
Speaker 1: first three wins were very easy wins against much less competition.
Speaker 1: In the Florida Derby, which was his first test, and
Speaker 1: he went easy. I was actually at the Florida Derby,
Speaker 1: uh in person. We were sitting at a big table
Speaker 1: at the half pole. When they put up the forty
Speaker 1: eight and four, I said, if you have a closer
Speaker 1: rip your ticket up now. Is this guy just stole
Speaker 1: the race? And that's what they did with the slow fractions.
Speaker 1: He's not going to get that here. There's gonna be
Speaker 1: more speed. Plus there's gonna be more horses coming at
Speaker 1: him early. One of the horses that did come at
Speaker 1: him finished third in the Florida Derby, and Ron mentioned him,
Speaker 1: and I do like that horse. To hit the ticket
Speaker 1: is a price's code of honor to make up ground
Speaker 1: in the Florida Derby with the fractions they had, he
Speaker 1: ran a big race and I look for the tables
Speaker 1: to turn. But the horse I'm gonna go to to
Speaker 1: win the race, I think he's gonna get the best
Speaker 1: trip of all of the horses. Where he's sitting at
Speaker 1: is number five improbable. And the fact that they went
Speaker 1: from Van Dyke last start, they moved off of him
Speaker 1: and went to Ortiz. Van Dyke is a good up
Speaker 1: and coming jockey, had his best year ever last year,
Speaker 1: but he's not ready for this stage. This is a
Speaker 1: huge jockey move. I like it. This is the horse
Speaker 1: to win, and I got my looking at Lee horse
Speaker 1: for you if you remember from a couple. Yeah, and
Speaker 1: that's what made made our ticket with the big long
Speaker 1: shot your homework assignment. Go back and rewatch the bluegrass
Speaker 1: and only focus in on number eight. Win win win.
Speaker 1: Watch the trip that he got got bumped at the start,
Speaker 1: but more importantly, when he was making his big move,
Speaker 1: and that's the problem with closers. You run into traffic.
Speaker 1: He ran up on a wall of horses, and he
Speaker 1: ran up on him hard, so hard that the jockey
Speaker 1: literally jerked the horse's head up in the air when
Speaker 1: he grabbed the reins to slam the brakes got him
Speaker 1: restarted after losing all momentum and still come on to
Speaker 1: be second. So I think if he get an honest pace,
Speaker 1: look for win win win on your ticket to help
Speaker 1: light up the towboard. So so but you you think
Speaker 1: it probably wins, but win win win gets in there,
Speaker 1: I I will have him in here. That's my long shade.
Speaker 1: Or I always bet two horses in the derby because
Speaker 1: it's such a an inflated uh pool. Uh Im probably
Speaker 1: will be my horse across the board and the long
Speaker 1: shot will be win win win, win win win now
Speaker 1: in their hole with the Elmaha beach scratch them mentella board.
Speaker 1: So you and now listen, I've first of all you
Speaker 1: mat and something there that should be noted, which is
Speaker 1: we live in an era now where you can actually
Speaker 1: go to YouTube and watch previous races like imagine this
Speaker 1: years ago. The racing form is still the Bible, but
Speaker 1: the racing form doesn't show you or tell you everything.
Speaker 1: And I tell people all the time it's human nature.
Speaker 1: When you watch your horse race live, all you're looking
Speaker 1: at when you're watching that race is the horse you
Speaker 1: bet your horses ride, you know, rose colored glasses on.
Speaker 1: Go back and watch the race after with an open
Speaker 1: eye and watch all of the other horses and see
Speaker 1: the horses that had troubled trips. That's how you get
Speaker 1: horses at prices. Uh, everybody can read the form and
Speaker 1: see a horse that's one four in a row. It's
Speaker 1: finding those horses that are improving but had problems and
Speaker 1: had a good excuse of why. Okay, so let's get
Speaker 1: into them specifically. I don't maybe don't want to give
Speaker 1: an entire specifics, but your general strategy, because all right,
Speaker 1: we know who who who you got winning. We know
Speaker 1: who you got in there, but are you are you exacting?
Speaker 1: Are you wheeling? What are you doing here? I'm playing
Speaker 1: exact as and tr effectors. And what I like to
Speaker 1: do the tr effecta is I do what is called
Speaker 1: a pyramid. I'll put four horses on top in the
Speaker 1: first slot, so any one of those four can win.
Speaker 1: I'll put five in the second slot, which would be
Speaker 1: the same four, and then one new horse, and then
Speaker 1: I'll put six or seven underneath. Now in the Derby,
Speaker 1: I might put a couple of extra horses on the
Speaker 1: bottom end of that. Because we know that something can
Speaker 1: run third and run a big price. You can invest
Speaker 1: more money in the Derby because you're gonna get a
Speaker 1: bigger return just because of the inflated prize pool. The
Speaker 1: purse of all of the as we like to refer
Speaker 1: to sit there. It's an official Derby show with the
Speaker 1: dead money. All right, Peter, save question for you, then,
Speaker 1: how are you betting this? I'm really interested in the
Speaker 1: Oaks Derby double this year. Other years we've talked about
Speaker 1: the double going from the turf race into the Derby.
Speaker 1: This year I like the Oaks Derby Double because I'm
Speaker 1: going to take a stand against the big favorite, Bella
Speaker 1: Fina in the Kentucky Oaks. She may prove me wrong,
Speaker 1: but I haven't loved the recent track work, and she
Speaker 1: did have her loan sort of poor start of her
Speaker 1: career over the Churchill stripped. And there's a couple in
Speaker 1: there that I like to try to get live to
Speaker 1: Tacitus and maybe a couple of long shots in the Derby.
Speaker 1: So the two for me and the Yoaks are Floora
Speaker 1: de Lamar, Bob Baffert, the Dolphin trainee. I don't believe
Speaker 1: we're going to get the giant price that's listed in
Speaker 1: the USA Morning Line, but this is one who's always
Speaker 1: meant to have talent, has this test written sort of
Speaker 1: all over her in terms of her pedigree and everything
Speaker 1: that was said about her before she even stepped on
Speaker 1: the race course in the afternoon. The other one I
Speaker 1: like is Champagne Anyone for Ian Wilkes. Wilkes is known
Speaker 1: for bringing his horses along slowly, and I think this
Speaker 1: one just looks to have a really nice set up.
Speaker 1: I think the pace will be fast. I think Champagne
Speaker 1: Anyone has a chance to get the money in the yolks.
Speaker 1: So hopefully one of those two will win and set
Speaker 1: me up for a really nice ticket to Tacitus. But
Speaker 1: in a bet like this, if I'm taking on an
Speaker 1: odds on favorite, I have the opportunity to maybe mix
Speaker 1: in a few more. And I like a lot of
Speaker 1: the long shots that were mentioned by the guys, specifically
Speaker 1: that point about Code of Honor. He has just really
Speaker 1: had not a whole lot go right this year, especially
Speaker 1: not go right in terms of him to produce a
Speaker 1: really fast final time. I think he might get okay
Speaker 1: conditions to really show up with a big effort in
Speaker 1: the Kentucky Derby. I would want to have some of
Speaker 1: those doubles to him. I think Spinoff is another one
Speaker 1: who's a very interesting long shot. Of the bafforts, I mean,
Speaker 1: they all make sense. I don't want to bet them all.
Speaker 1: I might bet a little to game Winner, just because
Speaker 1: I think he's suited for the mile and a quarter.
Speaker 1: But the main play for me is going to be
Speaker 1: Oaks Derby doubles, Lord ne Lamar and Champagne, anyone to Tacitus.
Speaker 1: And then I'll mix in a little bit of Spinoff
Speaker 1: and Code of Honor and maybe a little game winner
Speaker 1: in those. But I think that's the pool for me
Speaker 1: this year. I like it. You have Oaks Thoughts Marco
Speaker 1: at all. I haven't broke down my final thought there
Speaker 1: on the Oaks, Okay, Ron, I may have. I may
Speaker 1: have buried the headline here, Ron, because you're there at Louisville.
Speaker 1: There's obviously in clement weather expected. At one point I
Speaker 1: heard it was nine chance of precipit station and the
Speaker 1: thought was that if Omaha Beach was in this, that
Speaker 1: that would help that horse more than any other. Is
Speaker 1: there a horse now that gets help? And first of all,
Speaker 1: what is the forecast? Let's start there. And if it
Speaker 1: is bad, who does this help? I feel like you
Speaker 1: should ask Peter, because he took the exact horses I
Speaker 1: was gonna name in the Oaks. I was saying, God,
Speaker 1: I swear it was like it was I we don't
Speaker 1: think I like on the Derby, but we do on
Speaker 1: the Oaks absolutely. And Bafford was touting Florida Lamar to
Speaker 1: be back in December, so we'll we'll go from there.
Speaker 1: The weather forecast for tomorrow if you read the National
Speaker 1: Weather Service, or I should say Saturday chance of rain
Speaker 1: if you read the weather channel chance of rain. The
Speaker 1: question is how much rain, and that's gonna be the
Speaker 1: big if they couldn't even get that right last year
Speaker 1: on race day, the weather forecasters. So if it's if
Speaker 1: it's the steady shower that they're telling us will happen,
Speaker 1: then the track will be muddy to sloppy. Uh. Here's
Speaker 1: the thing, Gil and presuming high cost stays in the race,
Speaker 1: Fifteen of the any horses in the Derby field this
Speaker 1: year have experience on wet tracks on off tracks, So
Speaker 1: it's it's not like you can really narrow it down.
Speaker 1: I think it goes back to either you stay with
Speaker 1: your best, may the best horse win, or maybe you
Speaker 1: lean more toward front runners uh and pace chasers. But
Speaker 1: then again, that's kind of what the Derby has become.
Speaker 1: I don't know that you handicapped a lot differently. If
Speaker 1: Omaha Beach were in there, absolutely he'd have been pounded
Speaker 1: as the favorite, But now he's not, and we go
Speaker 1: forward with a lot of horses that have been on
Speaker 1: wet tracks. You agree with that. I agree that as
Speaker 1: far as the closers go, if it is a really muddy,
Speaker 1: sloppy and you know, the MUD's getting thrown up. Generally,
Speaker 1: that doesn't favor the closers because they don't like to
Speaker 1: see that, you know, the mud thrown interfaces horses on
Speaker 1: the front end. If it's a hard rein and they're able,
Speaker 1: you know, to scrape the tracks some and you're not
Speaker 1: getting all of that throwing up, then you know, really
Speaker 1: it doesn't change my handicapping. But you're gonna have to
Speaker 1: watch that and see how it is where you watching.
Speaker 1: By the way, you're at the south point again as
Speaker 1: we always are. Yes, I will be the biggest, biggest
Speaker 1: derby party in town. I'm I'm hitching onto your wagon
Speaker 1: and you're gonna tell me how about this? That's right?
Speaker 1: And won't go rogue on this time? Do you hear that? Run?
Speaker 1: Listen to all right? The last thing and we'll get
Speaker 1: you guys back together. Before the Belmont is particularly if
Speaker 1: there's a triple crown that's uh still at stake and
Speaker 1: and it sounds like there might not be based on
Speaker 1: everything I'm hearing, but I usually asked Felika nailed this
Speaker 1: a couple of years ago with Tappert. I asked, before
Speaker 1: the derby, Uh, the Belmont, which is the longest of
Speaker 1: the three Triple Crown races. If you're looking at this field,
Speaker 1: if you're thinking about the horses that might jump in
Speaker 1: at some point, Um, is there a horse that you're
Speaker 1: thinking about already about for the Belmont come June. Well,
Speaker 1: people's first thought always is when it's a bigger race,
Speaker 1: longer distance, that they're going to look for the stone
Speaker 1: Cold closer. And that's not the case all the time,
Speaker 1: because usually you get a slower pace in the race
Speaker 1: because nobody wants to be that first horse that comes up.
Speaker 1: But if it is a fast pace and if he
Speaker 1: doesn't scratch here and everything's okay, Hiko is probably one
Speaker 1: of the best Stone Cold closers that we have. Um
Speaker 1: Country House is a good closer as well. And of
Speaker 1: course my horse I gave you as a long shot, win, win,
Speaker 1: win is a horse that likes to close. Okay, So
Speaker 1: you've got it improbable, you got win win, win, and
Speaker 1: all your bets. That's that's the headline. I'm gonna have
Speaker 1: all three of Bafford's horses in my combinations, but for
Speaker 1: price horses, I will have tasket this, and I will
Speaker 1: have code of Honor included in that that top you know,
Speaker 1: five horses that I'm king in exact as and dries. Okay,
Speaker 1: and Peter, you are, you're daily doubling with the oaks.
Speaker 1: You've stolen flatters horses, You've bitten everything he likes. But
Speaker 1: you're you listen to a show. I could be self
Speaker 1: consciously plagiarizing and this could be a George Harrison situation
Speaker 1: here all throwing an old rock and roll reference for wrong.
Speaker 1: That's okay, that's our demo today. It's horse racing and
Speaker 1: boxing today, for God's sakes. But you're you're fixed. You're
Speaker 1: fixated on Tacitus as well. That that's the headline for you.
Speaker 1: Acidus is he's my number one pick with a bullet.
Speaker 1: You guys talked about derby parties. I won't be able
Speaker 1: to check out any of the Vegas derby parties this year,
Speaker 1: but I am throwing one in Manhattan. I know visa
Speaker 1: as a lot of listeners in the New York areas,
Speaker 1: if people talk about it all the time, and for
Speaker 1: those who are listening who are gonna be in the area,
Speaker 1: I'm hosting a derby party, no cover, no minimum, at
Speaker 1: Treadwell Park, west On Street. Come in. Always love to
Speaker 1: hear from people who hear me from my shows or
Speaker 1: when I've been fortunate enough to be on with Ron
Speaker 1: or on with you Gil. Be great to meet some
Speaker 1: listeners in person on Derby Day as well, and the
Speaker 1: Numbers game broadcast on Game Plus there in the New
Speaker 1: York City, New Jersey area as well. Bleeding over from Ontario. Uh,
Speaker 1: and Peter in the name of the podcast what Ward Time,
Speaker 1: I'm the in the Money Players podcast, Okay, and we'll
Speaker 1: put this in podcast for him on beating the book
Speaker 1: as well. Ron, you you got roadster, but your other
Speaker 1: headline on this is what I would say as far
Speaker 1: as the Belmont is concerned, don't ignore cutting humor depending
Speaker 1: on what he does here in the Derby. Won the
Speaker 1: Sunland Derby and is a long shot here but trained
Speaker 1: by Todd Fletcher, who has been known to use the
Speaker 1: Derby as a bella prep for the Belmont. And I
Speaker 1: agree when win win doesn't have to be far back.
Speaker 1: You can't be far back in the Belmont because even
Speaker 1: though it's the biggest track, it's the shortest home stretch.
Speaker 1: So uh, those are just the two names I'll throw
Speaker 1: out there, and uh, you know, we'll see who else
Speaker 1: might come into the race that we don't know that's
Speaker 1: going to come in the next five weeks and change.
Speaker 1: And as far as podcast is concerned, Uh, the buzz
Speaker 1: horse around here, the smart money horse be by my standards.
Speaker 1: His trainer Brett Calhoun will be on the podcast tomorrow.
Speaker 1: Zoe Cadman will help us preview it. We had to
Speaker 1: kind of go from scratch with the Omaha Beach situation,
Speaker 1: and so that's our guest list for tomorrow. And of
Speaker 1: course we have the Handicappers podcast up already with Vinnie Malulo,
Speaker 1: Patrick McGuigan, Dave Tooley and Annie a Vello and all
Speaker 1: that at VCN dot com, slash podcast or Apple, Google
Speaker 1: Stitcher or Gills Toaster. It's called the Ron Flatter. By
Speaker 1: the way, it's called the Ron Flatter Racing Pod. Ron.
Speaker 1: You've probably start with that the title of the podcast itself. Um,
Speaker 1: it's creative, should be always dynamic, alright. Last thing then, guys,
Speaker 1: real quick, as we gotta run. Uh, if there's a
Speaker 1: horse in the derby that you didn't mention at all,
Speaker 1: that is the most likely to torpedo everything you just said,
Speaker 1: What is that horse? What's the horse? You fear? Maximum
Speaker 1: security ends up being a real horse. That's the horse
Speaker 1: that will hurt me. So that that's the horse you
Speaker 1: could be cursing. Come Come six fifty East or three
Speaker 1: fifty pm Pacific on Saturday. Same question, Peter, what's the
Speaker 1: horse that that could just ruin all your hopes? Well,
Speaker 1: I fear improbable, but I could probably spend very little
Speaker 1: money to just cover maybe an exacta or something improbable
Speaker 1: over Tacitus to try to save the bacon a little bit.
Speaker 1: But that's one that I'm mildly against, who I could
Speaker 1: easily see turning my day a little salur. All right, Ron,
Speaker 1: same question the bluegrass winner of a coma. I didn't
Speaker 1: respect the race, but I could respect the horse if
Speaker 1: he blows up my ticket. All right, Ron Flatter from
Speaker 1: Visa and Peter for Natal and Marco D'Angel. Marco, thank
Speaker 1: you for being in man. I appreciate that problem. Thank
Speaker 1: you all very much. Kentucky Derby round Table. We'll talk
Speaker 1: Derby with Felika Chris Felika from The Bear or from
Speaker 1: the I should say Stanford Stephen The Bear podcast from
Speaker 1: ESPN dot com tomorrow about rather run for the raises.
Speaker 1: Support for today's podcast, as always, comes from Bookmaker dot
Speaker 1: eu a key cog, the keyest of cogs. There's such
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Speaker 1: dollars right now, bookmaker dot e slash Gill. I promise
Speaker 1: you you will have no regrets. Down back to a
Speaker 1: numbers game with your host, Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from
Speaker 1: our vis In studios in Laws, Vegas, the numbers Game
Speaker 1: right here at Basa the Vegas Stats of Information Networks
Speaker 1: Serious x up Channel twoh for. I'm hard pressed to
Speaker 1: name anyone more associated with a sport than this gentleman
Speaker 1: right here. He is a Hall of fame boxing analyst
Speaker 1: for showtime television, as well as an author or stage performer,
Speaker 1: recording artist, speaker, renaissance man, and one of the original
Speaker 1: hosts here at Visa. Let us not forget that, ladies
Speaker 1: and gentlemen, it's a true gentleman. Al Bernstein on the
Speaker 1: show this morning. Good morning to you. Al's all nice
Speaker 1: to see you. Nice to talk to you. I mean
Speaker 1: nice to talk to you. Nice to see you. I
Speaker 1: hope to see you soon. Al, What are you keeping
Speaker 1: your days occupied with these days? Beyond boxing? I know
Speaker 1: you're you're always into something. Well, you know obviously I'm
Speaker 1: all the showtime fights. Uh, and I'm gonna do fight series.
Speaker 1: I'm starting up as well. That I'm announcing, but I'm
Speaker 1: also doing You mentioned the music I'm gonna be. Uh.
Speaker 1: I'm still doing a lot of music performing and I'm
Speaker 1: performing on MA at the Tuscany Hotel and Casino. Um uh,
Speaker 1: doing my music shows. So do that. It keeps me
Speaker 1: off the streets, you know, keeps you off the streets. Aw,
Speaker 1: that's all. That's all we're concerned about. Like we can
Speaker 1: only keep Bernstein off the streets. This world would be
Speaker 1: Do not want me out there? You do not want
Speaker 1: to be out there causing Bayham or anything like that. Terrible,
Speaker 1: That's right. We'll glad you mentioned the thing because most
Speaker 1: people don't know that you that you do sing and
Speaker 1: so because you never mentioned that on the boxing telecasts
Speaker 1: obviously not to my knowledge. You don't anyway, but yeah,
Speaker 1: I do. You know, I've been doing it since early
Speaker 1: eighties when I started doing it at the Caesar's Palace,
Speaker 1: before the Haggler Hearns fight and before for Handling Leonard,
Speaker 1: those kind of fights. Um, I would do engagements at
Speaker 1: the Sizar's Palace all the time, and then um, you know,
Speaker 1: it was fun ante morph into a different show and
Speaker 1: then that was like more of a boxing party thing
Speaker 1: where it showed clips and everything and I'm back to
Speaker 1: the music. So it's fun and uh, I ain't doing well.
Speaker 1: You can follow Al by the way on Twitter at
Speaker 1: al Bernstein. Um, you mentioned Haggler Leonard, a famous middleweight
Speaker 1: fight of of years gone by. His anniversary just passed
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks back. Um, so this weekend you
Speaker 1: got yourself a unification middleweight title. Canelo Alvarez fifty one
Speaker 1: one and two with thirty five knockouts. Obviously, people most
Speaker 1: famously remember the draw, controversial draw against Triple G and
Speaker 1: the controversial win against Triple G against Daniel Jacobs, who
Speaker 1: fought Triple G very well a couple of years ago himself. Uh,
Speaker 1: he is thirty four two and oh twenty nine knockouts,
Speaker 1: has a bit of a height advantage, has a bit
Speaker 1: of a reach advantage. I guess I want to start
Speaker 1: with the judges out, which is sad that I want
Speaker 1: to start there, but I guess I do. If I'm
Speaker 1: not mistaken. These are the same three judges as for
Speaker 1: as were the case in the last Triple G Cannello fight.
Speaker 1: Is that right? Uh, they're experienced spots, their experience judges
Speaker 1: and Uh. One hopes that they will do a good
Speaker 1: job with this. Um. You know, these fights are UM,
Speaker 1: this is gonna be a fight like fifth Excuse, like
Speaker 1: the like the Triple G site that I think we're bound.
Speaker 1: They have a lot of close rounds in this site
Speaker 1: and I'm bound to have uh if it goes to distance,
Speaker 1: which many people think it will. UM, I think could
Speaker 1: could play a role. And you know, there's a perception
Speaker 1: that Canello al has gotten, has done, has gotten a
Speaker 1: couple of decisions that maybe he couldn't shouldn't have gotten,
Speaker 1: um and so and and there's a perception that he
Speaker 1: is the golden boy. Uh, he's promoted by the Golden Boy.
Speaker 1: But but but you know, well that's what you know.
Speaker 1: I hate to start there, but that's what work. If
Speaker 1: I any inclination, I have to bet on Jacobs. And
Speaker 1: first of all, I think my strategy is I'm just
Speaker 1: gonna wait. Because the public loves betting underdogs. I'm just
Speaker 1: gonna wait for them to bet it and wait for
Speaker 1: Canelo's price to get muted. And then I think I'm
Speaker 1: gonna bet Canelo at a muted price. That's the strategy
Speaker 1: anyway for me, but any nation I have to bet Jacobs.
Speaker 1: I always think about those judges, and I do buy
Speaker 1: into the fact that to beat Canelo here in Las Vegas,
Speaker 1: and I don't want to say you gotta knock him out,
Speaker 1: but you really gotta out point him. And that's my
Speaker 1: trouble here thinking about any kind of bet on Jacobs. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's the perception, and and there's some there's some you know,
Speaker 1: and and some of the things that have happened in
Speaker 1: life back that up. Uh And so the idea, UH
Speaker 1: that you could win a decision of betting on Danny
Speaker 1: Jacobs does kind of way in your mind if you're um,
Speaker 1: I do think that Danny Jacobs has the chance in
Speaker 1: this fight to uh to to if he if he
Speaker 1: uses his height and his reach advantage as well as
Speaker 1: he can and UH is able to keep Cannella at bay,
Speaker 1: there's a chance he could box well enough to to
Speaker 1: win those rounds convincingly enough to get the judges. There's
Speaker 1: a chance that that could happen. But again, you know,
Speaker 1: it might not be something you want to you want
Speaker 1: to wager your money on. How do you think it
Speaker 1: plays out? Though? If you if you could picture the
Speaker 1: script of this fight, what do you what do you
Speaker 1: believe will happen here? I think I think it is
Speaker 1: Daniel Jacobs wants to use the site and reach UM
Speaker 1: and box effectively but land power punches. UM. He still
Speaker 1: wants to land with some uh, with some power and
Speaker 1: he is a good puncher. He's not a UH, He's
Speaker 1: not just a boxer. UM. And for Canello, the question
Speaker 1: is going to be when he fought Arisondi Lara, who
Speaker 1: is the ultimate boxer UM, some years ago, he had
Speaker 1: boxers give him some issues. UM. He doesn't always have
Speaker 1: the greatest footwork. Isn't always you know, he's not that
Speaker 1: quick on his feet and so sometimes boors give him trouble.
Speaker 1: The problem is that I resigned to Laura box him,
Speaker 1: but didn't again, didn't get the decision, and part of
Speaker 1: it was Laura's fault because he wasn't aggressive enough. But
Speaker 1: that's where Daniel Jacobs has quite a conundrum because Canello
Speaker 1: will be coming forward this site and can he box
Speaker 1: effectively enough and still give the impression that he's done
Speaker 1: enough offensively? UM, I don't. The interesting thing about the
Speaker 1: site and the big question is whether either man has
Speaker 1: his ability to hurt the other man Cannello has shown
Speaker 1: an amazing chin. Um. We now realize that based on
Speaker 1: the goof can fights and other fights that that he's had,
Speaker 1: that that you know, Canelo Alvas can take a punch. Um.
Speaker 1: So I don't know if the question of whether Jacobson
Speaker 1: and her name is is is in the air. Uh.
Speaker 1: And I don't know if can will not knock out Jacobs.
Speaker 1: So I expect this to go to this since and
Speaker 1: I expected to be a close fight talking to Al
Speaker 1: Bernstein Boxing broadcast legend again, no one more associated with
Speaker 1: his sport uh than Al is in the sport of boxing.
Speaker 1: You know, I look at this, there's a clause here, Alan,
Speaker 1: and you tell me how I mean, I guess these
Speaker 1: clauses exist, But you tell me how regular these are?
Speaker 1: Where they're gonna weigh again the morning of the fight
Speaker 1: at eight am, and for every pound that Jacobs exceeds
Speaker 1: one hundred and seventy he will be fined five hundred
Speaker 1: thousand dollars a pound. How How regular is that? How
Speaker 1: typical is that? Well? Every once in a while those
Speaker 1: kind of clauses are put into uh to fight. Um
Speaker 1: just wants out to me because Uh, it's not that
Speaker 1: Dannis Jacobs, he doesn't have a big history of of
Speaker 1: of coming in overweight to begin with, Um, it is
Speaker 1: almost you know, he's more of the natural middleweight than Canella.
Speaker 1: But since its fights you fought at middleweight that you
Speaker 1: know that clauses to me is an odd one. Um.
Speaker 1: But Jacobs doesn't blow up too much in fights, but
Speaker 1: that but I think that is really not They often
Speaker 1: have clauses like that. In this case, that seems odd
Speaker 1: to me. And it's a further indication that, um, with
Speaker 1: the promotion and the the zone, the broadcasters and with everything, um,
Speaker 1: you know, I think the Canello, um, the playing field
Speaker 1: is tilted a little bit, just a little bit. Yeah, Um,
Speaker 1: And I guess the question is, and I there's nobody
Speaker 1: who loves boxing history more than I do. And I
Speaker 1: know obviously you're the same way. But let's let's try
Speaker 1: to put this in historical perspective, like if I'm talking
Speaker 1: to a generation of folks who grew up on some
Speaker 1: of the fights you mentioned, the Haggler Hagler hurt excuse me,
Speaker 1: Leonard Hern's one, which still remains my favorite fight of
Speaker 1: all time. Obviously, Yeah, the brutality of of Haggler, Hearns,
Speaker 1: and then there was Leonard Haggler some years later. But
Speaker 1: if we think about all of those fights, and I
Speaker 1: know the later one was middleweight, but the others were welter.
Speaker 1: We throw Duran in there. That group of fighters versus
Speaker 1: a fight that we're going to see like this on Saturday.
Speaker 1: Is this amateur hour compared to those guys? In your opinion?
Speaker 1: Is this comparable? What is this? No, it's that was
Speaker 1: an era. The nineteen eighties was was the most special
Speaker 1: ear boxing it's had maybe in its whole history. When
Speaker 1: I was and I was a young man in my thirties,
Speaker 1: when I was fortunate enough to be able to announce
Speaker 1: many of those fights, you know, tremendous break from me
Speaker 1: because I started in broadcast age thirty and here it was,
Speaker 1: you know, four or five, three or four years later,
Speaker 1: I'm announced some of those kind of fights of staging.
Speaker 1: But um that and I asked people like your Clancy
Speaker 1: and other people that new eras before me, you know,
Speaker 1: I said, is this as good as as it seems
Speaker 1: to me? And they said absolutely. It's one of the
Speaker 1: best decades ever. So um, that decade stands on its
Speaker 1: own for that eight for that weight group and everybody
Speaker 1: what this is. So it's very hard for any fights
Speaker 1: to to match up to those, but this, this is
Speaker 1: we have. The Glafkan Canelo fights were exceptionally well thought.
Speaker 1: It was very very good. Uh, and this will be
Speaker 1: a very good fight. Um. You know, Uh, it's stuff
Speaker 1: to compare it to the eighties because that was you know,
Speaker 1: on a level all of its own. But this is
Speaker 1: this should be a very good fight. These are very
Speaker 1: good fighters. And uh and and and you know I
Speaker 1: talked about Jackson to box and it almost gives the
Speaker 1: impression what's the dead in the fight. But I don't
Speaker 1: know that, you know, I think we're likely to see
Speaker 1: a lot of actions, just like we did in the
Speaker 1: Glafkan Canova fights. Uh. And if I if we look
Speaker 1: beyond this fight into the boxing landscape, and you're opinion,
Speaker 1: who is who is the most exciting boxing boxer out there?
Speaker 1: Is that Errol Spence Jr. Is that the name that
Speaker 1: leaves to mind for you? Yeah, Erroll Spences is a
Speaker 1: very exciting fighter because he's he's you know, we'd see
Speaker 1: he just beat Mikey Garcio. He came up and wait
Speaker 1: to fight him and One of the things about that
Speaker 1: fight that was surprising was Mike Garcie is a brilland fighter. Um,
Speaker 1: But people thought Errol Spence would win primarily because there's
Speaker 1: his strength and his size against six fighters coming up.
Speaker 1: And wait, he actually showed astonishing um boxing technique and
Speaker 1: we knew he had it, but he hadn't. But he's
Speaker 1: the kind of fighter that wants to go in and
Speaker 1: you know, he's looking for knockouts. UM. So he's he's
Speaker 1: the full package. And and I was slow to come
Speaker 1: around to Erroll Spence. You know, I thought always good,
Speaker 1: you know, but I wasn't labeling him, you know, a superstar.
Speaker 1: He is, he is going to be that, and and
Speaker 1: we're hoping it he can now get a series of
Speaker 1: good fights culminating with the fight with Terence Crawford. Um,
Speaker 1: that would you know would excite the fans. It's sure would,
Speaker 1: all right, So al I appreciate it. Listen. So, so
Speaker 1: do you like my betting strategy here? I'm just gonna wait, wait, wait,
Speaker 1: and then bet canello. If you if you're making up bet,
Speaker 1: what are you doing? Well? If if I was, if
Speaker 1: I'd been making the bet before, and I don't know
Speaker 1: you know better than mere Where where uh Jacobs started
Speaker 1: out as an underdog? Um, and I don't know where.
Speaker 1: What are the oddvent now minus four fifty right now
Speaker 1: thereabouts on Canello plus three fifty on Danny Danny Jacobs
Speaker 1: Daniel Jacobs. So Jacobs is a plus three he's getting
Speaker 1: He's the underdog, right, He's the underdog, that's right. And
Speaker 1: as as with every underdog, people will bet the underdog
Speaker 1: pretty much up until fight time. Yeah, they will. If
Speaker 1: I had gotten there earlier, when the odds were even
Speaker 1: better Jacobs, I would have bet Jacobs because I think
Speaker 1: there would have been value there. Now you're probably in
Speaker 1: the right spot because you can probably get it right
Speaker 1: when right around fight time you'll get better odds. And
Speaker 1: if you believe in Canelo in this fight, um, then
Speaker 1: it's better to do that and then you know, and
Speaker 1: then get the odds because uh, um, he probably deserves
Speaker 1: to be a little bit more of a favorite than you.
Speaker 1: He'll go off at Yeah, so you know, but and
Speaker 1: and far be it from me to tell you about
Speaker 1: betting on a sporting event. But but you know, I mean,
Speaker 1: this is one of these things that listen when it's boxing. Alan,
Speaker 1: you know this, and I you know, I'm not I'm
Speaker 1: not breaking any news here. Betting on boxing has this
Speaker 1: you know, the thing that's always the voice in the
Speaker 1: back of your head, which is like this could anything
Speaker 1: could happen here with these judges, right, so and so
Speaker 1: my things. Yeah, that's true, and it makes it different
Speaker 1: than other sports. You know, other sports, crazy things can
Speaker 1: happen that you can lose, you up that um of
Speaker 1: crazy turn of the ball, you know, some weird call,
Speaker 1: who knows what else. But in boxing, you know, it's
Speaker 1: one of the few sports city when it goes to distance,
Speaker 1: you're still not you don't know who won, right, you
Speaker 1: can't tell. So of course that's a that's a that's
Speaker 1: a something that you've got a factor into what you do. Unfortunately,
Speaker 1: and you know when you get these benches that are
Speaker 1: close calls, um, you know you swipt those out. Al Bernstein,
Speaker 1: the legend that is Al Bernston again singing at the
Speaker 1: Tuscany what's the date on that I'll be there from seven,
Speaker 1: will come out and have some fun. Well, and I'm
Speaker 1: gonna be giving some of my books away and love
Speaker 1: of a good time, all right, Al, thank you so
Speaker 1: much for waking up this morning. I appreciate it, very
Speaker 1: nice to chat with you. You do a great job
Speaker 1: and continue to chat. Thank you about about that the
Speaker 1: bat back back of the boat.