WEBVTT - Top 10 NFL Week 4 Player Prop Picks & Predictions + TD Calls (Ep. 532) 0:00:01.080 --> 0:00:02.559 Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. 0:00:02.600 --> 0:00:04.840 It's time to place your bets to this met Joey 0:00:04.920 --> 0:00:09.200 p joe Pisapia and this is BP NFL joining me 0:00:09.360 --> 0:00:11.520 for the props for Week four in the NFL. The 0:00:11.560 --> 0:00:15.159 Welsh and the Undertaker Andrew Erickson. Strong week from the 0:00:15.200 --> 0:00:17.520 boys last week. We're gonna try to capitalize on this 0:00:17.760 --> 0:00:22.239 and also another strong performance on the Thursday Night Football Show. 0:00:22.280 --> 0:00:25.120 In case you missed it, Ceedee Lamb over check, Ceede 0:00:25.239 --> 0:00:28.240 Lamb touchdown check. You go home happy. I told you 0:00:28.520 --> 0:00:33.479 avoid the spread. It's it's a tragedy. Nothing but field goals, baby, 0:00:33.760 --> 0:00:35.839 nothing but field goals. But that's why you're with us, 0:00:35.880 --> 0:00:38.320 and that's why you subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube 0:00:38.400 --> 0:00:40.600 channel to hang out with us and talk some ball. 0:00:41.000 --> 0:00:41.440 Gentlemen. 0:00:41.520 --> 0:00:43.640 We have a big week ahead of us here, some 0:00:44.000 --> 0:00:46.760 fun and exciting matchups. A lot of matchups too where 0:00:46.800 --> 0:00:48.879 teams are kind of up against it. We're gonna see 0:00:48.920 --> 0:00:51.159 how they respond. Some teams that are not quite proven, 0:00:51.360 --> 0:00:53.000 we're gonna see how they respond. And these are the 0:00:53.040 --> 0:00:56.520 players that we have our eyes on and hopefully can 0:00:56.560 --> 0:00:58.680 bring us some cash. Before we get to the names 0:00:58.680 --> 0:01:01.640 on the list. Don't forget every to make sure that 0:01:01.680 --> 0:01:03.800 you download the Betting Pros app and use the tools 0:01:04.160 --> 0:01:06.600 just like the prop bet cheat sheet. I assemble a 0:01:06.600 --> 0:01:08.840 weekly television show. I go through the prop bet cheat 0:01:08.880 --> 0:01:11.480 sheet to find the best lines. The boys go through it. 0:01:11.560 --> 0:01:12.319 We all use it. 0:01:12.400 --> 0:01:14.800 You should use it to because it's the best way 0:01:15.000 --> 0:01:17.640 to compare all the different sportsbook lines with the expert 0:01:17.680 --> 0:01:20.639 projections and then find the value. That's what it's about. 0:01:20.760 --> 0:01:22.920 So use the prop bet cheat sheet right now. You 0:01:22.920 --> 0:01:24.120 can get it over at betting pros or go to 0:01:24.160 --> 0:01:26.720 betting pros dot com slash props. That's the way to 0:01:26.800 --> 0:01:29.679 find it, and you're gonna find the most profitable opportunities 0:01:29.760 --> 0:01:32.720 and tailored recommendations. And then also you could track all 0:01:32.760 --> 0:01:35.040 the winning trends as well. So Betting Pros is the 0:01:35.040 --> 0:01:38.040 app to help to get you into the black. All right, 0:01:38.120 --> 0:01:42.040 let's start here. Leaderboard overall you guys nine and six 0:01:42.120 --> 0:01:45.440 for ericson eight and seven for Welsh, so both above 0:01:45.480 --> 0:01:48.080 five hundred. That's where we want to be. Joey p 0:01:48.320 --> 0:01:50.360 is nine and two over his last eleven. Follow me 0:01:50.800 --> 0:01:53.400 betting pros dot com slash Joe. All right, let's get 0:01:53.440 --> 0:01:56.120 to your first pick of the week here, Welsh, and 0:01:56.160 --> 0:01:59.400 we're going with somebody who was the one oh one 0:01:59.480 --> 0:02:02.720 in many fans, League's Tyreek Hill. What are your feelings 0:02:02.760 --> 0:02:04.840 about Tyreek the freak in week four. 0:02:05.440 --> 0:02:08.880 I am doing this just to double down. I'm doing 0:02:08.880 --> 0:02:11.280 this for the boys. I'm doing this for me and 0:02:11.520 --> 0:02:14.840 Ericson here, even when there are things that are telling 0:02:14.919 --> 0:02:20.720 us not too Like is week three data with Skyler Thompson. 0:02:20.800 --> 0:02:23.200 I just want to repoint out, like Scott Thomas is 0:02:23.240 --> 0:02:26.079 not great, but it was also a week difference between 0:02:26.120 --> 0:02:28.000 Tua and Skyler Thompson and what they were able to 0:02:28.080 --> 0:02:30.400 cater the playbook too. And then he gets hurt and 0:02:30.440 --> 0:02:33.359 Tim Boyle comes in. It was a disaster for Tyreek 0:02:33.440 --> 0:02:37.000 last week. He had a fifteen percent target share. Not good, 0:02:37.240 --> 0:02:38.840 six point eight a dot. 0:02:39.280 --> 0:02:39.880 Not good. 0:02:40.200 --> 0:02:43.160 People freaking out Ericson and I this week talking about 0:02:43.160 --> 0:02:45.480 the bye because if this team is going to win, 0:02:46.000 --> 0:02:49.160 it has to go through Tyreek Hill, and I believe 0:02:49.200 --> 0:02:51.440 it will go back through Tyreek Hill. So some stuff 0:02:51.480 --> 0:02:53.160 that you can still sit on for the season. Even 0:02:53.160 --> 0:02:55.560 though that Week three was so bad, he still has 0:02:55.880 --> 0:02:58.960 an over eleven A dot. He still has a thirty 0:02:59.000 --> 0:03:02.320 four percent target sh share, and he's still averaging fourteen 0:03:02.360 --> 0:03:07.640 point nine four yards per reception, so he's also fourth 0:03:07.680 --> 0:03:10.959 in yards after reception in the NFL at nine yards. 0:03:11.240 --> 0:03:14.440 And obviously the last week two weeks have been kind 0:03:14.440 --> 0:03:16.640 of messy, so he's only hit this in one of 0:03:16.639 --> 0:03:18.680 his last three games. But if you look over his 0:03:18.800 --> 0:03:21.800 last ten using the betting pros betting pages, which are 0:03:21.840 --> 0:03:24.120 awesome which you can go and do some analysis on 0:03:24.160 --> 0:03:26.240 all your picks when you're on the betting pro side, 0:03:26.360 --> 0:03:29.960 he's hit eight of these last ten. So it has 0:03:30.040 --> 0:03:31.760 just been these last two weeks. This is one of 0:03:31.840 --> 0:03:35.640 the lowest numbers on Tyreek Hill receiving yards that we've 0:03:35.640 --> 0:03:37.280 seen in quite some time. I don't even know if 0:03:37.320 --> 0:03:38.840 I actually said it. As we were coming in here, 0:03:38.880 --> 0:03:40.880 I told you it was the receiving yards fifty two 0:03:40.920 --> 0:03:43.520 and a half. It's fifty two and a half yards. 0:03:43.560 --> 0:03:47.320 Four catches based off of his yards per reception gets 0:03:47.400 --> 0:03:50.400 us there. But again, my big thesis I wish could 0:03:50.400 --> 0:03:54.920 be about, you know, this crazy, big underlying thing that's 0:03:54.960 --> 0:03:57.040 gone on, but here's what it really sits around. It 0:03:57.080 --> 0:04:00.240 sets around this player that has been established for years 0:04:00.240 --> 0:04:02.240 and years and years, forty four touchdowns in the last 0:04:02.400 --> 0:04:04.960 two years, hasn't had less than twelve hundred receiving yards 0:04:04.960 --> 0:04:07.440 over the last four years, And we've had one week 0:04:07.640 --> 0:04:10.040 of messy, weird quarterback play that kind of screwed up. 0:04:10.080 --> 0:04:12.960 You have Tyler Huntley likely coming back in there. You 0:04:13.040 --> 0:04:15.400 got to get Tyreek kill the ball. That's my thesis. 0:04:15.440 --> 0:04:18.479 It's a super low receiving yard prop. I'm smashing it 0:04:18.520 --> 0:04:21.680 for the boys, and I'm taking it just to try 0:04:21.680 --> 0:04:25.000 to hit home this by narrative of Tyreek Hill and 0:04:25.360 --> 0:04:27.360 just a really great bet to cash. So fifty two 0:04:27.360 --> 0:04:29.440 and a half receiving yards, when do you think that 0:04:29.880 --> 0:04:32.120 low number was out there for Tyreek Hill over the 0:04:32.160 --> 0:04:33.080 last three years? 0:04:33.360 --> 0:04:35.440 You can get this on one play, I mean exactly. 0:04:35.480 --> 0:04:39.040 And Tyler Huntley apparently is picking up the Dolphins offense. 0:04:39.400 --> 0:04:42.719 Quote like riding a bike, So there you go, end quote. 0:04:43.000 --> 0:04:44.919 So it depends on how good of a bike rider 0:04:44.960 --> 0:04:45.240 you are. 0:04:45.680 --> 0:04:47.719 Yeah, do we know finally knows how to ride a bike. 0:04:47.920 --> 0:04:50.480 That was not part of the article, but we can 0:04:50.520 --> 0:04:51.400 only assume he does. 0:04:52.000 --> 0:04:53.960 Here's a big show Tyler Huntly riding a bike. It's 0:04:54.000 --> 0:04:55.080 him on wheel. 0:04:55.400 --> 0:04:59.880 It's like trading will do on this. Ericson, No, no, 0:05:00.120 --> 0:05:00.760 We're not gonna be a. 0:05:00.760 --> 0:05:02.480 Bat you you want to, No, No, I love it. 0:05:02.600 --> 0:05:05.719 Let's let's be Tyreek kill everywhere in fantasy leagues too. Ericson, 0:05:05.800 --> 0:05:09.080 let's talk about the Jets. I've already bet Brayln Allen 0:05:09.160 --> 0:05:11.200 to score a touchdown a plus one ninety this week 0:05:11.279 --> 0:05:13.880 because I think it's all hands on deck in the backfield. 0:05:13.920 --> 0:05:17.760 But you've got feelings about another RB with Garrett Wilson 0:05:17.800 --> 0:05:19.640 in a tough matchup. It seems like the running backs 0:05:19.640 --> 0:05:21.240 are gona get used heavily. So let's talk about your 0:05:21.240 --> 0:05:21.560 thoughts on. 0:05:21.600 --> 0:05:23.000 Breece Hall in Week four. 0:05:23.279 --> 0:05:25.600 Yeah, I love Breese Hall the over on his receiving 0:05:25.680 --> 0:05:27.360 yards twenty seven and a half. You look at the 0:05:27.440 --> 0:05:29.800 Broncos on defense, what have they done this season? They've 0:05:29.839 --> 0:05:32.560 blitzed at the NFL's highest rate at forty five percent. 0:05:32.839 --> 0:05:35.359 So what does that mean, Aaron Rodgers, I'm not gonna 0:05:35.360 --> 0:05:37.280 wait and get hit from these guys. I'm old. I 0:05:37.320 --> 0:05:39.120 don't want that, So I'm gonna get the ball quick. 0:05:39.320 --> 0:05:41.400 And who's that going to be to the running backs 0:05:41.480 --> 0:05:43.200 out of the backfield. So you look at Breese Hall. 0:05:43.279 --> 0:05:45.480 What he's done through three games. He's already been over 0:05:45.560 --> 0:05:48.120 this number three straight games. So even though Braylen Allen 0:05:48.200 --> 0:05:51.720 is getting more involved, they want to feature Breese Hall 0:05:51.800 --> 0:05:54.360 still as the primary receiver out of the back. We 0:05:54.480 --> 0:05:56.839 talked about Garrett Wilson gonna be matching up with Patrick 0:05:56.880 --> 0:05:59.160 ten not a good matchup for him. So I think 0:05:59.200 --> 0:06:01.160 Breese Hall is going to be Aaron Rodgers go to 0:06:01.320 --> 0:06:03.880 guy in this particular matchup. So that's why I love 0:06:03.920 --> 0:06:06.039 the over and're receiving again another player that he can 0:06:06.080 --> 0:06:08.240 get this on one play. Breese Hall is that explosive 0:06:08.279 --> 0:06:10.040 out of the backfield and he's already done it. So 0:06:10.360 --> 0:06:13.040 when you look at two how involved he is as 0:06:13.080 --> 0:06:16.000 a first red target per Fantasy Points data, Hall in's 0:06:16.040 --> 0:06:18.920 the third highest first red target chair among running backs 0:06:18.960 --> 0:06:20.279 at eighteen percent this season. 0:06:20.480 --> 0:06:22.320 All right, let's go to Welsh for your second pick 0:06:22.360 --> 0:06:24.480 this week. Let's talk about DK Metcalf. Huge game here 0:06:24.480 --> 0:06:27.160 for the Seahawks proving Now all right, here we go. 0:06:27.520 --> 0:06:31.600 We've won three games. Defense has played really well, competition 0:06:31.680 --> 0:06:34.839 has been below average. Now you're getting the Detroit Lions 0:06:34.880 --> 0:06:37.040 on the road. I'm fascinated by this game. I do 0:06:37.200 --> 0:06:40.839 think the Seahawks cover. But I was in yesterday's show 0:06:40.880 --> 0:06:43.480 with trealand Ericson. I want to talk about DK Metcalf 0:06:43.520 --> 0:06:43.680 with you. 0:06:44.040 --> 0:06:46.520 Yeah, this is actually like the Tyreek Hill one. It's 0:06:46.560 --> 0:06:49.280 super fun. It's kind of my narrative play and I 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:51.280 have it bet on the Betting Pros app right now. 0:06:51.480 --> 0:06:53.640 This is my favorite one. It's like my absolute favorite 0:06:53.680 --> 0:06:57.680 one is DK Metcalf. VP projections have him over this 0:06:57.920 --> 0:07:00.720 number at sixty two and a half, which you can 0:07:00.839 --> 0:07:03.800 find as the lowest number. Consensus number is sixty four 0:07:03.800 --> 0:07:05.200 and a half, so this is going to fly around, 0:07:05.240 --> 0:07:06.920 but sixty two and a half on the receiving yards 0:07:07.000 --> 0:07:09.600 is what we're playing with with DK Metcalf. He is 0:07:09.720 --> 0:07:12.960 projected over this. I cross referenced it to PFF seventy 0:07:13.000 --> 0:07:15.480 two point five on his projections and then some of 0:07:15.520 --> 0:07:17.480 the things to kind of sit with Lions giving up 0:07:17.520 --> 0:07:20.560 the most passing yards in the NFL wide receivers. DK 0:07:20.760 --> 0:07:24.360 is eleventh in air yards in the NFL sixteen in 0:07:24.560 --> 0:07:28.600 air yard share, and the Betting Pros prop page when 0:07:28.640 --> 0:07:31.400 you go and check out DK Metcalf shows that he 0:07:31.440 --> 0:07:33.880 has hit this obviously in two of his last three games. 0:07:34.000 --> 0:07:35.760 But this is a really cool tool as well. They've 0:07:35.840 --> 0:07:38.400 got the comparable tool which is kind of at the 0:07:38.440 --> 0:07:40.760 bottom if you're looking on the website, and it'll show 0:07:40.840 --> 0:07:44.520 you comparable wide receivers versus the defense. And guess what, 0:07:45.280 --> 0:07:47.720 all three wide receivers in the comparable front that have 0:07:47.800 --> 0:07:51.080 gone up against the Lions have crossed this prop. DK 0:07:51.280 --> 0:07:54.280 Metcalf has been a target monster, a big air guy. 0:07:54.600 --> 0:07:56.800 They do get Ken Walker back, it's looking like so 0:07:56.880 --> 0:07:59.800 they can establish some run. But with this Lions offense, 0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:02.240 this has the makings of one of those shootout type 0:08:02.240 --> 0:08:04.400 of situations. And Gino has been passing the crap out 0:08:04.440 --> 0:08:07.320 of the ball. So I love DK Metcalf in this 0:08:07.400 --> 0:08:11.960 situation with whatever comes with JSN. Tyler Lockett Like, I 0:08:12.000 --> 0:08:13.960 don't want to say this on sixty two and a half, 0:08:14.120 --> 0:08:16.560 but I'll do it for a third time. He could 0:08:16.560 --> 0:08:18.600 do this in one play. This is what DK Metcalf 0:08:18.800 --> 0:08:21.240 does as well. So this is a big air yards guy. 0:08:21.520 --> 0:08:24.240 This is kind of a low ish number. Projections like it, 0:08:24.520 --> 0:08:27.560 Betting pros likes it, and I like it all right. 0:08:27.880 --> 0:08:28.560 I like it too. 0:08:29.440 --> 0:08:31.560 Again, I love that you could see on the site too, 0:08:31.600 --> 0:08:34.600 the comparisons with the fantasy averages and where the defenses 0:08:34.640 --> 0:08:36.760 have given up to I think telling me, I think 0:08:36.800 --> 0:08:39.640 Seattle actually overperforms. I don't know they're gona win this game, 0:08:39.679 --> 0:08:41.719 but I think they're going to overperform in it to 0:08:41.840 --> 0:08:45.760 least people's expectations. Next up, Andrew Erickson. If you've been 0:08:45.840 --> 0:08:49.080 fading the backfield of the Chicago Bears, well, you've been 0:08:49.080 --> 0:08:52.000 making money this year, so it's week four. What do 0:08:52.040 --> 0:08:53.520 you want to do with the Bears backfield this week? 0:08:53.760 --> 0:08:56.839 Fade the backfield, specifically with DeAndre Swift. We're going to 0:08:56.880 --> 0:08:59.000 go under on his rushing yards thirty five and a half. 0:08:59.120 --> 0:09:01.960 This line has moves significantly since opening it to get 0:09:02.000 --> 0:09:03.920 open a round forty three and a half. That's the 0:09:04.000 --> 0:09:06.000 number I was able to get on early in the week. 0:09:06.120 --> 0:09:08.600 But like we learned last week about the Dwan Jennings, 0:09:08.880 --> 0:09:11.000 if you're right, it doesn't matter what the number is 0:09:11.040 --> 0:09:12.360 going to be, because I'm going to be right about 0:09:12.360 --> 0:09:15.040 DeAndre Swift. He's not getting anywhere near thirty five and 0:09:15.080 --> 0:09:17.160 a half rushing yards because I don't even know if 0:09:17.200 --> 0:09:19.400 he's the primary ball carrier anymore in the Bears back 0:09:19.480 --> 0:09:21.959 But we've seen reports come out talking about how the 0:09:22.000 --> 0:09:25.480 Bears want to feature Roshan Johnson more in these upcoming matchups, 0:09:25.520 --> 0:09:28.320 and why not because last week he got Swift thirteen 0:09:28.400 --> 0:09:31.640 carries for twenty yards. Again, he's been under thirty five 0:09:31.640 --> 0:09:33.400 and a half rushing yards the first three weeks of 0:09:33.440 --> 0:09:35.360 the season already, and that was when he was the 0:09:35.400 --> 0:09:38.640 starting running back for the Chicago Bears. So I think 0:09:38.679 --> 0:09:40.599 that we could see him fall to third in the 0:09:40.679 --> 0:09:43.200 pecking order. He's following in the footsteps of Miles Sanders 0:09:43.280 --> 0:09:45.520 last year, where oh, I'm the highest paid running back 0:09:45.559 --> 0:09:47.480 in free agency and then you lose your job to 0:09:47.679 --> 0:09:50.280 one of the backups on the team. So again, as 0:09:50.280 --> 0:09:53.599 a Roshawn Johnson truther all off season, this is a 0:09:53.640 --> 0:09:55.640 big moment for us. I don't know how effective he's 0:09:55.640 --> 0:09:57.240 going to be, but we're not betting his rushing props. 0:09:57.280 --> 0:09:59.880 We're just betting against DeAndre Swift. So again, it doesn't 0:10:00.000 --> 0:10:02.480 matter what the matchup is because the Bears just can't 0:10:02.559 --> 0:10:05.720 run the ball, and I think the Rams strengths quote 0:10:05.800 --> 0:10:08.240 unquote strengths on defense are actually probably on their defensive 0:10:08.280 --> 0:10:11.360 line rather than their secondary, which is absolutely atrocious. So 0:10:11.559 --> 0:10:13.880 I'm just going to fade Deander Swift into the sun. 0:10:14.080 --> 0:10:16.560 Actually, you know one thing too. We were talking earlier 0:10:16.600 --> 0:10:19.440 in the week about the Ezekiel Elliott under rushing yard 0:10:19.520 --> 0:10:21.920 number and how low it was and how scary it is. 0:10:22.040 --> 0:10:22.599 But this is it. 0:10:23.080 --> 0:10:25.520 But this you're not playing, you don't get any yards. 0:10:25.679 --> 0:10:27.520 That's kind of the thing. It's like this number has 0:10:27.600 --> 0:10:29.600 been going down, has been going down for a reason. 0:10:29.760 --> 0:10:32.240 It's kind of scary because Swift is one of those 0:10:32.360 --> 0:10:33.840 breakaway players, but he. 0:10:33.920 --> 0:10:34.839 Hasn't been breaking down. 0:10:35.240 --> 0:10:35.760 He's one. 0:10:35.960 --> 0:10:39.400 I don't think, hey, yeah, he hasn't been that guy anymore. Yeah, 0:10:39.559 --> 0:10:41.720 so he can't. Unlike the three guys we talked about 0:10:41.760 --> 0:10:44.319 before they can get on one play, Swift cannot. I 0:10:44.760 --> 0:10:46.600 don't think Swift can do it on Wane to play anymore. 0:10:46.640 --> 0:10:48.760 By the way, last couple weeks for Zeke, and this 0:10:49.000 --> 0:10:50.880 was the first of all good practice because we've been 0:10:50.880 --> 0:10:53.079 talking about Rico Dawell in the Fantasy Pro channel for 0:10:53.120 --> 0:10:54.840 a couple of weeks. Now people drop them, go pick 0:10:54.920 --> 0:10:58.120 him up. Hopefully listened. But Zeke, last couple weeks here 0:10:58.160 --> 0:11:00.599 we go against the Saints six for sixteen, against the 0:11:00.720 --> 0:11:03.480 Ravens three for six and then last night against the Giants, 0:11:03.520 --> 0:11:05.480 five for nineteen, so it's over, folks. 0:11:05.559 --> 0:11:07.640 So he actually did get more than a FREEK one. 0:11:07.720 --> 0:11:09.600 He did have one nice first down run. I was like, oh, 0:11:09.720 --> 0:11:10.120 there he goes. 0:11:10.200 --> 0:11:13.600 He had one against one everybody get it was against 0:11:13.600 --> 0:11:15.080 the Giants, by the way, and. 0:11:15.080 --> 0:11:16.760 Then he ran into the big pot and came out 0:11:16.800 --> 0:11:18.360 and was like five yards. 0:11:18.559 --> 0:11:18.920 There you go. 0:11:19.400 --> 0:11:21.440 All right, everybody, let's get to the third pick here 0:11:21.520 --> 0:11:24.600 that we have. Let's talk about Josh Allen right now, 0:11:25.080 --> 0:11:26.760 kind of co front runner for MVP. 0:11:27.200 --> 0:11:28.240 It's a really good narrative. 0:11:28.240 --> 0:11:30.000 I'd be putting some money on it right now, especially 0:11:30.000 --> 0:11:31.679 if he wins this game. Now, if he loses it, 0:11:31.720 --> 0:11:33.840 you're gonna see this kind of bounce back a little bit. 0:11:33.960 --> 0:11:37.640 But even if that happens, I still think that narrative 0:11:37.640 --> 0:11:40.079 for Josh Allen is fascinating. It's Josh Allen and the 0:11:40.120 --> 0:11:43.599 Buffalo Pills. He's got this little supporting cast of characters. 0:11:43.640 --> 0:11:47.000 It's just an ensemble, no stars. He's the only star. 0:11:47.640 --> 0:11:49.760 And that, my friends, leads to a really good narrative. 0:11:49.760 --> 0:11:51.560 But let's talk about the passing yards. The numbers two 0:11:51.640 --> 0:11:53.040 thirty and a half Welsh, what do you want to 0:11:53.080 --> 0:11:53.280 do with it. 0:11:53.720 --> 0:11:55.559 I want to play it over of course I do. 0:11:55.920 --> 0:11:59.319 Betting pro shows that Josh Allen has hit this two 0:11:59.400 --> 0:12:02.040 of the last three games so far this year. The 0:12:02.120 --> 0:12:05.280 projections are over two thirty, kind of across the board. Again, 0:12:05.600 --> 0:12:09.679 I'll take VP projections and sometimes back them up. PFF 0:12:09.760 --> 0:12:12.720 projections are pushing this as well, over two forty five 0:12:13.280 --> 0:12:16.120 and more importantly, you know, like I talked about, and 0:12:16.240 --> 0:12:18.480 this is like a fun narrative to play sometimes with 0:12:18.720 --> 0:12:22.520 the DK Metcalf one. As far as receivers go, the 0:12:22.640 --> 0:12:26.360 Lions giving up the most yards to wide receivers and 0:12:26.520 --> 0:12:29.040 it's a great play for DK Metcalf. The Ravens have 0:12:29.120 --> 0:12:32.400 given up the most overall passing yards in the NFL 0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:35.360 over nine hundred, so this is a great spot for 0:12:35.520 --> 0:12:39.760 Josh Allen where you're not gonna really run the ball 0:12:39.960 --> 0:12:42.360 a whole bunch. I mean, Cook has obviously been doing 0:12:42.440 --> 0:12:45.160 his thing and Josh Allen can move, but the secondary 0:12:45.280 --> 0:12:47.120 has been a disaster for them. So this is an 0:12:47.120 --> 0:12:50.280 opportunity if Kean Colmenio shows up on time that maybe 0:12:50.320 --> 0:12:52.000 he can have a few snaps that he can go 0:12:52.080 --> 0:12:56.360 along Khalil Shakir. Just bang bang, bang, kinkaid it's a 0:12:56.400 --> 0:12:58.800 pretty good spot. But either way, this is two thirty. 0:12:58.840 --> 0:13:00.319 This is a low number that he's hitting two last 0:13:00.400 --> 0:13:03.760 three weeks. This has shootout potential, close game potential, and 0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:06.000 Josh Allen's gonna slang the ball. So I really love 0:13:06.040 --> 0:13:08.880 I'd love this one like one b to the DK 0:13:09.040 --> 0:13:12.160 metcalf side. I took a passing prop last week and 0:13:12.200 --> 0:13:15.559 Brock pretty smashed Cana. Kind of keep paying attention. This 0:13:15.640 --> 0:13:18.480 is usually not my market too on like targeting and 0:13:18.559 --> 0:13:21.760 honing in on a lot of quarterback passing props, but 0:13:21.920 --> 0:13:23.679 we're finding some really good ones early on, and I 0:13:23.720 --> 0:13:25.320 think this one is the best of the week as 0:13:25.360 --> 0:13:27.679 far as like passing yards or touchdowns right now. 0:13:27.800 --> 0:13:29.080 Yeah, look, he's getting the job done. 0:13:29.280 --> 0:13:31.240 I love the comment too after the game the other 0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:34.200 day where he's like, yeah, it's you know, nobody cares 0:13:34.240 --> 0:13:39.400 about their stats, wink wink talking to you, Steffon. I mean, 0:13:39.920 --> 0:13:41.640 I mean, if that wasn't like loud and clear. 0:13:41.520 --> 0:13:42.240 I don't know what was. 0:13:42.520 --> 0:13:44.000 Maybe he was talking about Gave Davis. 0:13:44.520 --> 0:13:46.440 Yeah, it was must be. Gave Davis was the guy 0:13:46.480 --> 0:13:48.320 who was just Steve. 0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:51.280 Gave Davis's team, So clearly gave Davis. 0:13:51.080 --> 0:13:54.160 Was Ercks definitely way off on that one. Old Ericson 0:13:54.200 --> 0:13:55.440 totally gave Davis all. 0:13:55.400 --> 0:13:58.160 Right, undertaker, let's find an under for week four? 0:13:58.400 --> 0:14:02.280 Where do you have another running back that's, you know, 0:14:02.400 --> 0:14:04.520 we don't know how his job security is anymore, Rashad 0:14:04.559 --> 0:14:07.480 White under thirty eight and a half rushing yards. Look, 0:14:07.559 --> 0:14:10.280 last week, we saw Bucky Irving take a much larger 0:14:10.400 --> 0:14:13.439 role in this backfield, and the coach has noticed that 0:14:13.880 --> 0:14:16.480 because we can't just keep putting Shod White out there 0:14:16.559 --> 0:14:18.960 to average two yards per carry and say that's an 0:14:19.000 --> 0:14:22.440 offensive success, right, So they're gonna lean on Bucky Irving 0:14:22.480 --> 0:14:24.320 Moore as a rusher. Rashad White still has a role 0:14:24.320 --> 0:14:27.680 as a pass catcher in this Buccaneers offense. But I 0:14:27.840 --> 0:14:30.680 just don't see scenario where Rashad White is ripping off 0:14:30.760 --> 0:14:35.520 these massive runs against a really stout Philadelphia Eagles defense. Again, 0:14:35.600 --> 0:14:37.560 it doesn't even really matter. Again, it's not really about 0:14:37.600 --> 0:14:40.280 the matchup, honestly, it's just about how ineffective Rashad White 0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:42.040 has been and he's not going to see enough volume 0:14:42.120 --> 0:14:43.800 to get tim to thirty eight and a half rushing yards. 0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:45.960 He's been the starting running back for the Timp Bay 0:14:46.000 --> 0:14:48.800 Buccaneers the last three weeks, and he's been under thirty 0:14:48.800 --> 0:14:51.000 eight and a half rushing yards the last three weeks. 0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:53.400 So now if you're taking away more volume from him, 0:14:53.720 --> 0:14:56.680 I don't see a scenario where similar to Swift, I 0:14:56.720 --> 0:14:59.120 don't think this guy's gonna beat me. So I'm gonna 0:14:59.120 --> 0:15:00.760 take the under on Rashod White under three eight and 0:15:00.760 --> 0:15:02.480 a half rushing yards. I feel good about betting on 0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:05.760 these dusty, inefficient running backs so far after taking the 0:15:05.840 --> 0:15:07.960 under on Zeke. So let's keep it rolling. 0:15:08.400 --> 0:15:11.200 I want to see an under parlay from you. Eric, 0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:16.640 you give me, I'll Swift White and give me like 0:15:16.680 --> 0:15:17.000 one more. 0:15:17.040 --> 0:15:17.200 Give me. 0:15:17.640 --> 0:15:21.320 You know I got the guy, got Swift White, Javante. 0:15:22.680 --> 0:15:24.600 I'm gonna I'm gonna play that. That's gonna be like I. 0:15:24.600 --> 0:15:25.000 Will put it. 0:15:25.160 --> 0:15:27.840 Well, you're talking about the next one here, so is 0:15:27.880 --> 0:15:31.120 it Swift? It's Taylor and Javonte Williams. That's where we're going. 0:15:31.040 --> 0:15:35.680 There, Smift, be Swift, White and Javonte Williams. 0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:38.720 Yeah, all under the totals will all like not even 0:15:38.760 --> 0:15:42.200 combine one hundred yards between three running backs. That's amazing, 0:15:42.800 --> 0:15:44.280 all right, I'm gonna put that together. 0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:47.480 While I do that Welsh, why don't you talk about 0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:50.720 another prop four week four here in the NFL and 0:15:50.760 --> 0:15:53.320 you're gonna go where the Patriots are? 0:15:53.560 --> 0:15:57.240 Yeah, so they're not all sexy, Josh a sexy name. 0:15:57.320 --> 0:15:59.400 DK Metcalf was a sexy name. I'm gonna get into 0:15:59.440 --> 0:16:02.360 the mud a little bit because this one's gonna be gross. 0:16:02.800 --> 0:16:07.600 We're going with de Mario Douglass over receiving yards. And 0:16:08.040 --> 0:16:10.560 it's even gross because this number moved a little bit. 0:16:10.640 --> 0:16:13.080 I took it on Tuesday at thirty three and a 0:16:13.120 --> 0:16:15.960 half and it moved down, So you know that could 0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:19.040 maybe put in some of the fear. But I'll tell 0:16:19.040 --> 0:16:22.360 you I love this from so many factors. One of 0:16:22.360 --> 0:16:24.120 the things Ericson and I talked about last week. He 0:16:24.200 --> 0:16:26.600 talked about it on the Fantasy Pro show we do 0:16:26.800 --> 0:16:29.280 on the podcast side called Extra Point, where it was 0:16:29.360 --> 0:16:32.240 like tomorrow, Douglas was complaining, wanted to get the ball. 0:16:32.560 --> 0:16:34.720 They got him the ball in that second series and 0:16:34.760 --> 0:16:36.920 he ended up getting like whatever it was, six catches, 0:16:37.240 --> 0:16:41.280 So the complaining has worked out. But he's also hit this. 0:16:42.120 --> 0:16:43.960 I think it's six of his last ten games. I 0:16:44.040 --> 0:16:45.920 left out my number here according to the betting pro 0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:48.320 pages prop pages, but you guys will be able to 0:16:48.360 --> 0:16:51.680 see it. He's projected over thirty six. But more importantly, 0:16:51.880 --> 0:16:55.000 the Niners got exposed last week from two to two 0:16:55.080 --> 0:16:57.560 at well out of the slot. And that's what I 0:16:57.680 --> 0:16:59.520 think is going to happen here. You saw two to 0:17:00.080 --> 0:17:02.960 going in motion moving out of the slot, and the 0:17:03.080 --> 0:17:05.119 forty nine ers were just giving that up in that 0:17:05.240 --> 0:17:07.480 middle of the field. Well, guess what they lost Hargrave, 0:17:07.800 --> 0:17:11.680 who is on that interior line. That's gonna equate the 0:17:11.760 --> 0:17:14.360 forty nine ers to this matchup's a little bit weird, 0:17:14.400 --> 0:17:16.159 but like the Patriots are gonna try to smash the 0:17:16.200 --> 0:17:19.000 ball in and that's gonna give someone to have to cheat, 0:17:19.160 --> 0:17:21.040 whether it's gonna be a linebacker or it's gonna be 0:17:21.200 --> 0:17:23.600 like a Houfunga at safety. And that opens up that 0:17:23.640 --> 0:17:25.720 middle of the field a little bit. And what happens 0:17:26.000 --> 0:17:29.879 the slot receiver tomorrow? Douglas pop Douglas eighty three percent 0:17:29.960 --> 0:17:32.159