WEBVTT - Episode 233: Stop Whining 0:00:00.980 --> 0:00:04.990 This is Dan Patrick Takes a Gamble, a weekly gambling 0:00:05.050 --> 0:00:08.470 podcast sort of hosted by Dan Patrick, except for the 0:00:08.510 --> 0:00:12.410 morally ambiguous parts, which will be handled by Dylan and Shay. 0:00:12.450 --> 0:00:12.970 Talk to me. 0:00:13.390 --> 0:00:16.470 And now, here's Dan, Dylan, and Shay. 0:00:17.090 --> 0:00:17.450 Welcome. 0:00:17.489 --> 0:00:20.710 It's another episode of Dan Patrick Takes a Gamble. You've 0:00:20.730 --> 0:00:23.150 got Big Day Ray, who's not only a gambler, but 0:00:23.170 --> 0:00:26.660 he's the producer of this show. You've got Dylan, and 0:00:26.700 --> 0:00:30.070 you've got Shay and Irving. We also have John Murray, 0:00:30.350 --> 0:00:33.890 Senior Director of Caesars Sportsbook, set to join us, maybe 0:00:34.030 --> 0:00:36.190 give you guys some tips to help you for the 0:00:36.229 --> 0:00:40.390 rest of the season. And John joins us now. John, 0:00:40.450 --> 0:00:44.360 how do you take the human emotion out of whatever 0:00:44.420 --> 0:00:45.540 your betting lines are? 0:00:46.520 --> 0:00:48.860 Well, you've got to remember that you don't have any 0:00:49.020 --> 0:00:53.580 control over what happens. I think on the days when 0:00:53.620 --> 0:00:58.230 the sportsbook did very well, For example, let's go back 0:00:58.330 --> 0:01:02.550 to Saturdays. Let's go back to Saturdays when Auburn beat Georgia, 0:01:03.090 --> 0:01:07.709 when Florida beat Texas, when BYU beat Notre Dame. The sportsbooks, 0:01:07.870 --> 0:01:10.450 I would imagine, all over the United States did fantastic 0:01:10.950 --> 0:01:14.709 on that day. But did they really do anything to 0:01:14.750 --> 0:01:17.590 make that happen? I think what you need to do 0:01:17.670 --> 0:01:20.130 is make sure you're bringing in the right kind of customers, 0:01:20.650 --> 0:01:23.929 controlling the limits from the wrong kinds of players, and 0:01:23.950 --> 0:01:27.680 the results will come your way eventually. It's not really 0:01:28.240 --> 0:01:31.220 something that you can have a great deal of control on. 0:01:31.600 --> 0:01:33.310 I talked to a good friend of mine that used 0:01:33.350 --> 0:01:37.789 to work here. He now works at a sportsbook in Milwaukee. 0:01:39.010 --> 0:01:41.390 And he told me last night they lost quite a 0:01:41.410 --> 0:01:45.060 bit of money when the Brewers clinched the World Series. Now, 0:01:45.100 --> 0:01:48.540 did he and his staff really do anything wrong? Of 0:01:48.600 --> 0:01:51.030 course they did. You know, they didn't do anything wrong. 0:01:51.050 --> 0:01:53.059 It's just people in Milwaukee were all betting the Brewers 0:01:53.080 --> 0:01:55.240 to win the World Series. So I think you need 0:01:55.260 --> 0:01:57.540 to take that sort of personal opinion out of it 0:01:58.820 --> 0:02:01.400 and just try to manage risk as best you can. 0:02:01.420 --> 0:02:04.290 The results will come your way. You just can't get 0:02:04.330 --> 0:02:05.010 too high or low. 0:02:05.810 --> 0:02:10.290 When we win a bet, we celebrate. When Vegas, when 0:02:10.389 --> 0:02:14.660 Caesars wins a bet money-wise, how do you celebrate? 0:02:15.880 --> 0:02:18.760 Well, I think it's a good question. 0:02:19.139 --> 0:02:21.060 I think for me, it's always been when the book's 0:02:21.080 --> 0:02:24.179 done really well, I think, great, no one's going to 0:02:24.200 --> 0:02:26.559 really give me a hard time this week. You know, 0:02:26.600 --> 0:02:29.260 when we have a bad Saturday or Sunday, there's a 0:02:29.280 --> 0:02:32.970 lot of follow-up questions on Mondays and Tuesdays. When the 0:02:33.010 --> 0:02:36.889 book does great, there's not really too many follow-up questions. 0:02:36.950 --> 0:02:38.850 It's more of just like an attaboy and you move 0:02:38.950 --> 0:02:41.470 on with your week. But I don't think you can 0:02:41.550 --> 0:02:43.990 ever really be celebrating or getting too high or low 0:02:44.010 --> 0:02:47.239 because Whether you're the ones betting or you're the ones 0:02:47.290 --> 0:02:49.139 booking the games, there's always another game. 0:02:49.540 --> 0:02:52.139 Okay, but how do you get blamed, though, if your 0:02:52.180 --> 0:02:53.360 bosses come down? 0:02:53.600 --> 0:02:56.080 I don't think that they really blame you. I think 0:02:56.100 --> 0:02:58.360 they're just looking for somebody to come down on. 0:02:58.680 --> 0:03:02.480 Like, they must know that it's not. Like, there are 0:03:02.500 --> 0:03:07.650 NFL Sundays every season. There will be multiple NFL Sundays 0:03:07.690 --> 0:03:10.950 where all the favorites win outright. And the sportsbooks do terrible. 0:03:11.300 --> 0:03:14.750 Because I've been at it for about 20 years, and 0:03:14.760 --> 0:03:16.750 I think the biggest change I've seen in the NFL 0:03:17.370 --> 0:03:20.070 is it's all about money line parlays now. If all 0:03:20.090 --> 0:03:22.250 the favorites win on the money line parlays and the teasers, 0:03:22.310 --> 0:03:25.650 the books do terrible. Now, did anybody really necessarily do 0:03:25.690 --> 0:03:29.780 something wrong? I don't think so. Sometimes you'll get, how 0:03:29.800 --> 0:03:36.040 do I put it nicely, maybe a less experienced person 0:03:36.620 --> 0:03:39.040 who will say, why didn't you just write money on 0:03:39.060 --> 0:03:42.170 the underdog? Well, it's like the time you do that, 0:03:42.210 --> 0:03:45.130 the underdog wins and everybody else does great and you 0:03:45.170 --> 0:03:47.710 don't do well. Your book doesn't do well. So, you know, 0:03:47.730 --> 0:03:50.610 you can't think about it like that. I don't know 0:03:50.680 --> 0:03:54.660 that they really blame us, Dan. I think they might 0:03:54.680 --> 0:03:58.420 blame us more if we comp too much or if we, 0:03:58.540 --> 0:04:00.900 you know, stuff like that, or maybe our payroll's too high. 0:04:01.180 --> 0:04:04.360 Just like any other business, you have to be managing 0:04:04.400 --> 0:04:08.870 your expenses like any other business, right? If all the 0:04:08.910 --> 0:04:11.090 favorites win on a football weekend, I don't think you 0:04:11.110 --> 0:04:12.690 really did anything wrong as a sportsbooker. 0:04:13.500 --> 0:04:14.420 Are you allowed to bet? 0:04:15.980 --> 0:04:18.919 Yeah, we can wager. We can't wager at the sportsbook 0:04:18.940 --> 0:04:19.460 we work at. 0:04:19.980 --> 0:04:22.820 I obviously can't make a wager at Cesar's sportsbook, but 0:04:23.310 --> 0:04:25.930 I do have accounts elsewhere in town. I'm in all 0:04:25.950 --> 0:04:30.550 the football contests, all the survivor contests that are such 0:04:30.589 --> 0:04:33.960 a rage. I've been eliminated from all of them, of course, 0:04:34.339 --> 0:04:37.339 but I do participate. 0:04:36.680 --> 0:04:38.400 In all of them for a few weeks, right? 0:04:38.960 --> 0:04:43.370 And I do the Circa Millions contest, the Pick 5 0:04:43.370 --> 0:04:45.450 contest they run. Those guys do a great job with 0:04:45.470 --> 0:04:47.930 that contest. So, yeah, I try to be in a 0:04:47.950 --> 0:04:50.350 few contests, and I make some small waiters here and there. 0:04:50.810 --> 0:04:54.020 But I think when you've seen the back end, when 0:04:54.040 --> 0:04:57.409 you've seen the back end of the whole percentages– you're 0:04:57.550 --> 0:04:59.930 probably going to be like, maybe I should do something 0:04:59.970 --> 0:05:03.250 else with my money. Maybe this is probably not the 0:05:03.270 --> 0:05:04.690 best place for my money to go. 0:05:05.110 --> 0:05:08.280 I always tell people if you gamble and I, I 0:05:08.779 --> 0:05:12.460 stopped gambling cold Turkey, uh, a long, long time ago, 0:05:13.140 --> 0:05:15.160 but I said, if you're going to do it, have 0:05:15.279 --> 0:05:19.740 money for entertainment. If you view it as entertainment, then 0:05:20.000 --> 0:05:22.930 you won't get over your skis and you won't be disappointed. 0:05:22.950 --> 0:05:25.510 I don't know if you have You know, do you 0:05:25.529 --> 0:05:28.870 give any advice to gamblers that you run into? 0:05:29.790 --> 0:05:31.390 That'd be the number one piece of advice. 0:05:31.450 --> 0:05:33.250 All kidding aside, the number one piece of advice is 0:05:33.270 --> 0:05:35.580 you've got to be wagering money that you can afford 0:05:35.620 --> 0:05:38.540 to lose. The same way that if you're investing in 0:05:38.560 --> 0:05:41.040 the stock market, which I do a lot of, it 0:05:41.060 --> 0:05:42.740 better be money that you don't need to pay your 0:05:42.820 --> 0:05:45.350 rent next month. You know, it's got to be money that's, 0:05:46.370 --> 0:05:49.910 I'll say extra money. But the second piece of advice 0:05:49.990 --> 0:05:52.810 I give everybody is, You're going to want to have 0:05:52.910 --> 0:05:55.260 several different betting accounts, guys. You're going to want to 0:05:55.279 --> 0:05:57.580 be betting at a few different places. You're going to 0:05:57.620 --> 0:06:01.099 want to look for the best number on every game. 0:06:01.140 --> 0:06:04.740 I think people don't really appreciate how important that is. 0:06:05.300 --> 0:06:07.790 Getting a win instead of a push, getting a push 0:06:07.830 --> 0:06:10.070 instead of a loss, that's going to add up a 0:06:10.130 --> 0:06:13.170 lot over the course of the year. And I probably 0:06:13.190 --> 0:06:15.510 shouldn't tell you this, but every time you add a 0:06:15.570 --> 0:06:19.740 team to your parlay, the house's whole percentage goes up. 0:06:20.570 --> 0:06:22.860 So I'll let you do the math on your own, 0:06:22.900 --> 0:06:28.180 but if you stick to straight bets and you get 0:06:28.200 --> 0:06:31.500 the best of the number every time, you're ahead of 0:06:31.520 --> 0:06:34.000 90-plus percent of the game. 0:06:34.920 --> 0:06:36.420 I don't think you're going to get hurt too bad 0:06:36.660 --> 0:06:37.280 if that's what you do. 0:06:37.620 --> 0:06:42.190 All right. Now, these guys have been up and down 0:06:42.290 --> 0:06:44.470 with their picks, which you would come to expect, but 0:06:44.510 --> 0:06:47.540 I'm going to let you guys share with John. Like, Ray... 0:06:48.260 --> 0:06:51.820 Your best bet this week, and then whatever thoughts you 0:06:51.860 --> 0:06:52.700 have on this, John. 0:06:53.560 --> 0:06:56.640 My best bet this week is the Jets minus one 0:06:56.690 --> 0:06:59.650 and a half versus the Raiders. I think the Raiders' 0:06:59.710 --> 0:07:02.130 defense is probably a little bit of a problem. They're 0:07:02.150 --> 0:07:04.690 letting up 27 points per game every week since week two, 0:07:05.290 --> 0:07:07.930 and nearly 80% of the spread bets are on the 0:07:07.990 --> 0:07:10.170 Raiders on DraftKings right now. So I'm going to fade 0:07:10.190 --> 0:07:13.290 the public, go the opposite way. My question is, is 0:07:13.310 --> 0:07:17.440 that a profitable strategy would you say just generically just 0:07:17.480 --> 0:07:20.080 fading the public every week on a massive bet like that? 0:07:21.180 --> 0:07:22.660 I think it's more complicated than that. 0:07:23.040 --> 0:07:24.400 I don't think you're going to do very well if 0:07:24.440 --> 0:07:27.180 that's the only reason that you have for a wager, 0:07:27.200 --> 0:07:29.240 but it sounds like that's not the only reason you have. 0:07:29.300 --> 0:07:31.840 It sounds like it's just one of the reasons. I 0:07:31.880 --> 0:07:34.700 can tell you guys the Jets were a small dog. 0:07:34.760 --> 0:07:37.140 Now they've flipped to where they are a small favorite, 0:07:37.660 --> 0:07:40.120 even though the public is all over the other side. 0:07:40.540 --> 0:07:43.880 I do think that's a good sign in general. And 0:07:43.930 --> 0:07:46.960 I do think the Raiders have sort of shown their 0:07:47.000 --> 0:07:49.900 true colors the last few weeks. I mean, they've played 0:07:49.920 --> 0:07:52.390 a really hard schedule. You know, I think we've had 0:07:52.410 --> 0:07:55.570 the Rams, Chiefs, and Bills all out here the last month. 0:07:56.150 --> 0:07:57.750 And then in between that, they went out to New 0:07:57.810 --> 0:08:00.010 England and lost to the Patriots. So they've been going 0:08:00.030 --> 0:08:01.810 through a really tough part of their schedule, but I 0:08:01.870 --> 0:08:04.350 do think they've shown their true colors. And I can 0:08:04.370 --> 0:08:06.240 tell you, we've seen some sharp money on the Jets. 0:08:06.980 --> 0:08:08.880 I don't know if I could do it. I don't 0:08:08.920 --> 0:08:12.140 know if I can. That's always the hardest thing for 0:08:12.180 --> 0:08:14.440 me when I look at these games, you guys. It's like, okay, well, 0:08:14.480 --> 0:08:15.740 I've got to bet on something or I've got to 0:08:15.760 --> 0:08:18.840 pick something. Do I really want it to be Aaron. 0:08:18.520 --> 0:08:20.760 Glenn and Geno Smith? I don't know if I can 0:08:20.780 --> 0:08:21.280 do that. 0:08:22.000 --> 0:08:23.910 But I can tell you we've seen some sharp money 0:08:23.970 --> 0:08:26.730 on New York, and the line is moving towards New York. 0:08:27.150 --> 0:08:27.390 All right. 0:08:27.550 --> 0:08:27.830 Dylan? 0:08:27.850 --> 0:08:31.710 All right. I might get killed for this one. Cardinals, 0:08:32.410 --> 0:08:34.030 money line against the Cowboys. 0:08:34.050 --> 0:08:34.890 Son of a bitch. 0:08:34.990 --> 0:08:38.500 Money line. Plus 260 when I looked at it. 0:08:39.020 --> 0:08:39.990 Cardinals Moneyline. 0:08:40.050 --> 0:08:40.929 Cardinals Moneyline. 0:08:41.590 --> 0:08:42.250 Your best bet. 0:08:42.410 --> 0:08:42.940 That's my best bet. 0:08:42.950 --> 0:08:43.770 You're a fucking prick. 0:08:45.190 --> 0:08:45.730 I don't know. 0:08:45.750 --> 0:08:51.720 I wasn't expecting that one. I will tell you guys 0:08:51.780 --> 0:08:54.540 that the team that I've been the most wrong about 0:08:54.559 --> 0:08:57.640 this season has been the Dallas Cowboys. Every time I've 0:08:57.720 --> 0:08:59.540 needed them to come through for me, like when they 0:08:59.570 --> 0:09:01.030 knocked me out of Survivor when they lost to the 0:09:01.070 --> 0:09:02.949 Buccaneers like three weeks ago on a Thursday night. 0:09:03.429 --> 0:09:04.010 They haven't. 0:09:04.550 --> 0:09:07.090 And every time I've gone against them, like, for example, 0:09:07.130 --> 0:09:09.390 three nights ago when I needed the Eagles in a contest, 0:09:09.890 --> 0:09:10.569 they've delivered. 0:09:10.590 --> 0:09:13.870 So, yeah, I'm not the right guy to ask about Dallas. 0:09:14.050 --> 0:09:14.390 I don't know. 0:09:14.470 --> 0:09:16.890 That's tough for me to get behind a best bet 0:09:16.980 --> 0:09:18.939 of an underdog money line of that length. 0:09:19.780 --> 0:09:22.360 But, I mean, I don't know. If you win, you're 0:09:22.380 --> 0:09:23.420 going to look like a genius. 0:09:24.179 --> 0:09:26.920 It's a high-risk, high-reward play. But I also, with the 0:09:26.960 --> 0:09:29.819 Cowboys especially, I kind of like to fade the narrative. 0:09:29.860 --> 0:09:32.300 So it's like they looked good last week. Dak still 0:09:32.340 --> 0:09:35.320 looks like there's– Okay, relatively speaking. 0:09:35.400 --> 0:09:37.220 I think that win could make them worse. 0:09:37.760 --> 0:09:38.900 That's kind of what I think. 0:09:38.940 --> 0:09:39.420 No bullshit. 0:09:39.480 --> 0:09:39.700 Why? 0:09:39.960 --> 0:09:42.230 Because I think Schottenheimer thinks he's got in his bags 0:09:42.290 --> 0:09:44.209 now and that a team rallies around an idiot, a 0:09:44.290 --> 0:09:47.230 useful idiot, and they turn into. I'm not kidding. I'm 0:09:47.250 --> 0:09:48.829 not kidding. I think they get worse based off of 0:09:48.890 --> 0:09:50.510 a win. I think that's the only team in the 0:09:50.550 --> 0:09:52.490 entire league that this could happen to. Wait a minute. 0:09:52.510 --> 0:09:53.130 Wait a minute. 0:09:53.250 --> 0:09:55.860 They might go, we won with the running game. Maybe 0:09:55.890 --> 0:09:56.560 they'll continue. 0:09:56.580 --> 0:10:00.359 They won against fourth string, third string, fifth string. Eagles, 0:10:00.510 --> 0:10:02.030 and now they're going to think, oh, we got our 0:10:02.050 --> 0:10:04.520 shit together, here we go, Schottenheimer and now Petten and 0:10:05.320 --> 0:10:07.199 Pimp C slash Christian Crawford. It's not good. 0:10:08.650 --> 0:10:10.110 It is a great letdown spot. 0:10:10.210 --> 0:10:12.250 Yeah, a huge letdown spot. And they lost to the 0:10:12.290 --> 0:10:13.810 Cardinals last year, too. Am I crazy? 0:10:13.890 --> 0:10:16.390 That was initially when this caught my eye at first. 0:10:16.410 --> 0:10:18.450 I was like, I remember this game from last year. 0:10:19.050 --> 0:10:21.010 Maybe it's a trap game. All right, Shay, do you 0:10:21.030 --> 0:10:21.890 want to give John your. 0:10:22.010 --> 0:10:23.480 Yeah, I mean, there's an obvious bet on the board 0:10:23.500 --> 0:10:25.479 that I don't know why we haven't led with this, 0:10:25.500 --> 0:10:28.320 but it's the ECU Pirates on Halloween night laying six. 0:10:28.340 --> 0:10:31.960 That's duh. We're hammering that. Fucking Pirates on Halloween. But 0:10:32.059 --> 0:10:38.230 I do love Faden, Orlando, UCF against Baylor. Just because 0:10:38.250 --> 0:10:41.810 of the letdown spot. Baylor plus one and a half. Bingo, bango. 0:10:41.870 --> 0:10:43.510 Yeah, but Baylor just fired their head coach. 0:10:43.610 --> 0:10:45.850 Don't matter to me. It's the Baptist. Lord's on their side. 0:10:47.340 --> 0:10:50.660 Central Florida probably was in the best scheduled spot of 0:10:50.679 --> 0:10:53.500 the entire season in college football last week. Getting BYU 0:10:53.660 --> 0:10:56.699 after the Notre Dame win. Central Florida was off a bye. 0:10:57.440 --> 0:10:59.800 That was a huge win for them. I think it's 0:10:59.820 --> 0:11:02.570 a great letdown spot. to go against central Florida. I 0:11:02.730 --> 0:11:04.870 think maybe Baylor gets a bump from the coaching. 0:11:04.929 --> 0:11:07.150 I agree. I think, I think the Lord in there, 0:11:07.570 --> 0:11:08.429 the Lord, the. 0:11:08.309 --> 0:11:09.290 Lord's going to play a role. 0:11:09.370 --> 0:11:11.809 Correct. It's a Baptist school. It's a Baptist school. Let's 0:11:11.830 --> 0:11:14.420 talk about, we're talking about Halloween, the spooky season and 0:11:14.540 --> 0:11:15.580 what fights against the devil. 0:11:15.640 --> 0:11:16.140 It's the Lord. 0:11:16.160 --> 0:11:17.460 So the Lord is going to come in the, you know. 0:11:17.720 --> 0:11:20.479 I don't know if John factors in the Lord with 0:11:20.540 --> 0:11:21.319 any of your lines. 0:11:21.340 --> 0:11:22.540 Might need to, John. 0:11:22.620 --> 0:11:26.160 In fact, we got to look at everything, Dan. I 0:11:26.179 --> 0:11:28.110 don't think you'd want to shut the door on anything. 0:11:28.120 --> 0:11:28.400 Amen. 0:11:28.490 --> 0:11:30.500 Do you need an interim coach when you got the 0:11:30.520 --> 0:11:31.540 big guy upstairs? 0:11:31.610 --> 0:11:34.150 You don't. You don't. You have the spirit guy in 0:11:34.170 --> 0:11:37.190 the ship. But no, seriously, ECU Pirates, Halloween night. 0:11:37.250 --> 0:11:39.190 I actually like that. That sounds like some logic I 0:11:39.210 --> 0:11:39.590 would use. 0:11:39.690 --> 0:11:40.270 Aye, aye, Captain. 0:11:40.350 --> 0:11:40.809 Yes, Ray. 0:11:41.090 --> 0:11:42.990 I do have one more question for you, John. I 0:11:43.230 --> 0:11:45.609 saw that FAU North Texas, the over-under is 76.5. 0:11:45.590 --> 0:11:45.660 Woo! 0:11:48.020 --> 0:11:52.179 What's the biggest over-under you've ever seen and what's the lowest? 0:11:52.200 --> 0:11:55.319 Because I know Wisconsin this week and Iowa. 0:11:55.740 --> 0:11:57.000 It had to. 0:11:57.000 --> 0:11:59.620 Be an Iowa game. It had to be an Iowa 0:11:59.640 --> 0:12:05.050 game in the mid-30s. The highest... God, I. 0:12:04.950 --> 0:12:07.069 Feel like some of those bowl games have gotten into 0:12:07.090 --> 0:12:09.670 the 80s where you've got some of these bowl games 0:12:09.710 --> 0:12:13.290 where the players don't care anymore. The bowl games are 0:12:13.350 --> 0:12:15.849 so difficult to set the numbers on now because of 0:12:15.870 --> 0:12:21.240 the transfer portal, because of the NIL stuff. I think 0:12:21.480 --> 0:12:23.800 I've seen higher than 76 and a half. I don't 0:12:23.820 --> 0:12:25.320 know off the top of my head what the absolute 0:12:25.360 --> 0:12:28.819 highest was somewhere probably in the mid eighties. And I 0:12:28.940 --> 0:12:31.599 can't believe there's been a lower total than some of 0:12:31.640 --> 0:12:37.219 those Iowa games, like Iowa, Wisconsin, Iowa, Penn state rock 0:12:37.300 --> 0:12:40.480 fights where the totals like 35. 0:12:40.880 --> 0:12:41.880 But those are fun. 0:12:41.900 --> 0:12:45.160 And players like to go over those really high totals. 0:12:46.260 --> 0:12:49.000 And it's, You know, if you bet over 76 and 0:12:49.040 --> 0:12:52.780 a half, for example, if there are two consecutive possessions 0:12:52.820 --> 0:12:53.640 without a touchdown. 0:12:53.679 --> 0:12:54.100 You're beat. 0:12:54.420 --> 0:12:55.480 You probably lost. 0:12:55.500 --> 0:12:55.720 Yeah. 0:12:55.760 --> 0:12:58.750 Unless the game goes to overtime. So your margin for 0:12:58.900 --> 0:13:00.870 error is just out the door. And if you bet 0:13:00.990 --> 0:13:03.550 under 35 and a half and there's a blocked punt 0:13:03.570 --> 0:13:06.989 for a touchdown or a punt return or kickoff return. 0:13:06.730 --> 0:13:08.189 For a touchdown, there goes. 0:13:08.210 --> 0:13:11.790 I think one of those Army teams. 0:13:11.809 --> 0:13:14.199 Your margin for error there. So I would generally say. 0:13:14.960 --> 0:13:16.420 The betters do like them. Yeah, Army, Navy is a 0:13:16.440 --> 0:13:18.140 good one as well. At least in Army, Navy, the 0:13:18.179 --> 0:13:18.980 clock is always moving. 0:13:19.140 --> 0:13:20.140 Amen. 0:13:20.540 --> 0:13:22.240 I'll leave you with this, John. You got all this 0:13:22.300 --> 0:13:26.940 information at your fingertips. How good a gambler are you? 0:13:28.620 --> 0:13:31.580 You know, when I was a little younger in the 0:13:31.620 --> 0:13:33.979 industry and I was a little bit more immersed in 0:13:34.020 --> 0:13:37.250 my early days, I was more of somebody in the 0:13:37.330 --> 0:13:40.189 risk room before I was promoted to these director roles. 0:13:40.990 --> 0:13:43.969 I had a much better understanding I just, I had 0:13:43.990 --> 0:13:46.150 it all in my head back then. I didn't really 0:13:46.200 --> 0:13:50.580 even have to look anything up. Did I do better then? Probably, 0:13:51.360 --> 0:13:54.199 but I probably am a lot happier now because I 0:13:54.220 --> 0:13:57.679 didn't really, I know this sounds bad given what my 0:13:57.720 --> 0:14:01.230 job is, but I don't really enjoy just being immersed 0:14:01.280 --> 0:14:05.350 in anything 24 hours a day, especially something as stressful 0:14:05.450 --> 0:14:09.290 as gambling. And no matter how much information you have, guys, 0:14:09.770 --> 0:14:11.450 you're going to have a really bad week. 0:14:11.270 --> 0:14:11.830 Every now and then. 0:14:13.550 --> 0:14:16.090 And that can be tough to deal with when you 0:14:16.110 --> 0:14:19.330 spend so much time on something and your results are 0:14:19.370 --> 0:14:20.890 like terrible one weekend. 0:14:21.350 --> 0:14:23.270 You're just like, why did I do this to myself? 0:14:24.390 --> 0:14:24.830 Yes, Ray. 0:14:25.320 --> 0:14:27.859 Can you even enjoy the Super Bowl? Is that a 0:14:27.900 --> 0:14:30.140 possibility for you or are you just stressed the entire time? 0:14:31.040 --> 0:14:33.260 You know what? That's my favorite day of the whole year. 0:14:33.680 --> 0:14:34.180 All right. 0:14:34.520 --> 0:14:37.320 Super Bowl Sunday is my favorite day of the year 0:14:37.360 --> 0:14:39.620 at work. We always have a ton of our great 0:14:39.640 --> 0:14:43.400 VIP customers here. All the bosses are here. It's very fun. 0:14:43.440 --> 0:14:46.990 It's so busy. The day just flies by. Every time 0:14:47.040 --> 0:14:50.170 there's a play, we're grading a prop bet, and we're 0:14:50.210 --> 0:14:52.790 seeing how much money we won or lost. And then, 0:14:52.890 --> 0:14:54.630 I have to be honest, when I wake up the 0:14:54.690 --> 0:14:58.270 next day, football season's over, and I can finally relax 0:14:58.290 --> 0:15:01.520 for a little bit. And I love March Madness. That's 0:15:01.540 --> 0:15:04.420 the next sporting event after the Super Bowl. So I 0:15:04.460 --> 0:15:07.460 love the Super Bowl. It is stressful. We've had some 0:15:07.500 --> 0:15:10.480 bad ones over the years. My first Super Bowl... was 0:15:10.540 --> 0:15:14.780 the Giants beating the Patriots the first time. The big 0:15:14.860 --> 0:15:17.140 upset when the Patriots were 18-0, and the book did 0:15:17.180 --> 0:15:18.100 terrible in that game. 0:15:18.880 --> 0:15:20.680 But I was just a ticket writer, so nobody blamed 0:15:20.700 --> 0:15:22.560 me for anything. That was good. 0:15:23.640 --> 0:15:25.160 We've had a couple of losing Super Bowls. We've had 0:15:25.180 --> 0:15:29.090 some very successful Super Bowls. I love that day. I 0:15:29.140 --> 0:15:31.470 actually really enjoy these big weekends. I mentioned Breeders' Cup 0:15:31.490 --> 0:15:33.570 at the top of the show, March Madness. 0:15:34.170 --> 0:15:35.690 I think it's exciting. I think it makes the day 0:15:35.730 --> 0:15:36.650 go by really fast. 0:15:37.590 --> 0:15:39.790 John, thank you for sharing. Now get back to work. 0:15:41.140 --> 0:15:43.800 I got to go watch the WNBA guys. It's really important. 0:15:43.940 --> 0:15:45.300 And I got to go, I got to get out 0:15:45.330 --> 0:15:47.170 there and watch it. So thank you for having me 0:15:47.210 --> 0:15:48.250 on the show guys. It was really fun. 0:15:48.810 --> 0:15:53.310 That's John Murray, senior director, Caesars sports book. Do you 0:15:53.330 --> 0:15:54.210 guys learn anything? 0:15:55.030 --> 0:15:55.710 Yeah, I think so. 0:15:56.430 --> 0:15:57.470 I think he loves my bets. 0:15:57.770 --> 0:16:00.680 Yeah, he didn't like your bet, but he kind of 0:16:00.940 --> 0:16:03.960 was shocked at your Cardinal money line against the Cowboys. 0:16:04.100 --> 0:16:05.700 He was depressed. I think he came around to it 0:16:05.720 --> 0:16:06.140 at the end. 0:16:06.220 --> 0:16:07.460 I didn't get that feeling either. 0:16:07.720 --> 0:16:08.700 Really? No, I did not. 0:16:08.740 --> 0:16:10.400 So were we just watching different things or what? 0:16:10.420 --> 0:16:11.780 I think he was super depressed about you. 0:16:11.920 --> 0:16:13.330 I think he felt bad for you. 0:16:13.370 --> 0:16:14.570 Yeah, he was talking about how lucky he came. 0:16:14.590 --> 0:16:17.030 When the Cardinals win that fucking game, I'm going to 0:16:17.050 --> 0:16:18.670 be a nightmare next week. 0:16:19.010 --> 0:16:19.550 I'm not coming. 0:16:20.810 --> 0:16:22.510 What do you think he would think when we told 0:16:22.570 --> 0:16:24.590 him Dylan was up 29 and a half units on the. 0:16:24.620 --> 0:16:26.160 Oh, yeah, I should have led with that one. You 0:16:26.180 --> 0:16:26.840 should have led. 0:16:26.940 --> 0:16:28.360 As the leader of the fucking board. 0:16:28.840 --> 0:16:29.760 Jets, sharp money. 0:16:30.100 --> 0:16:33.540 But I didn't want to give him any indication that 0:16:33.860 --> 0:16:36.460 anybody knew that they knew what. 0:16:36.420 --> 0:16:36.740 They were doing. 0:16:36.760 --> 0:16:37.320 Because we don't. 0:16:37.340 --> 0:16:40.040 You definitely didn't give that indication. No, I didn't need 0:16:40.080 --> 0:16:42.950 to give that. I wanted him to make an assumption. 0:16:43.040 --> 0:16:45.050 You actually gave him the opposite. You said, these idiots 0:16:45.090 --> 0:16:45.870 need help, John. 0:16:45.890 --> 0:16:46.370 Help them. 0:16:46.430 --> 0:16:50.120 Kind of like that. Dylan, 29 and a half. He 0:16:50.160 --> 0:16:51.600 won one unit last week. 0:16:51.660 --> 0:16:52.200 No big deal. 0:16:52.300 --> 0:16:54.200 It's crazy how you're, I mean, this is the best 0:16:54.220 --> 0:16:55.900 case scenario for you to tread water. 0:16:56.080 --> 0:16:58.370 That's what I've been doing. I've been treading. It's incredible. 0:16:58.530 --> 0:17:00.410 I've been like kind of my head bobbing above the 0:17:00.450 --> 0:17:02.410 water a couple weeks. I take a big gulp of 0:17:02.430 --> 0:17:03.670 seawater and it doesn't. 0:17:03.490 --> 0:17:05.060 Feel very good. But you should have lost like 18 0:17:05.060 --> 0:17:07.619 units at one point because you're still betting like Fucking 13. 0:17:07.600 --> 0:17:08.600 You know what I mean? 0:17:08.700 --> 0:17:09.700 And Moneyline dogs. 0:17:09.940 --> 0:17:10.619 It's crazy. 0:17:10.740 --> 0:17:11.660 It's the way I do things. 0:17:11.700 --> 0:17:14.840 Big Day Ray, plus six, you're up two units. And 0:17:14.960 --> 0:17:17.190