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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan. All right, here we go fifteen,

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty twenty five, fifty

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Speaker 1: and the kickers block the college football world. Stunner, Oh

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Speaker 1: my goodness, please stumble the bumble, the lateral turn a

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Speaker 1: counter on the U.

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Speaker 2: Don't you?

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Speaker 1: The lad table off the field to night.

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Speaker 2: It's not the sage of the dog in the fighting,

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Speaker 2: it's the side of the fighting in the roll. What's

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Speaker 2: up the generate nation?

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. This is the twenty

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Speaker 1: nineteen college football season betting preview Park eight. We're talking

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Speaker 1: group of five tonight. I'm Stucky in with me as

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Speaker 1: always as Colin Wilson. This podcast is gonna be loaded.

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Speaker 1: You ready to roll, Budy.

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Speaker 2: This is where we get to talk about Texas State.

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Speaker 2: This is where we got to talk about UAB last year.

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Speaker 2: This is where we get to talk about where the

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Speaker 2: money's really made in college football. These group of five teams.

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Speaker 1: Yep, little change of schedule for those that listen to

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Speaker 1: some of the previous podcasts. We're not gonna cover the Independence.

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Speaker 1: I know you know you notre Dame. Fans you BYU.

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Speaker 1: Fans always ask me when are you gonna cover us independence.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna do next week. So this episode's coming out

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Speaker 1: on Monday morning. The next episode is going to be

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Speaker 1: a week zero preview. There's only two games, but we'll

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Speaker 1: cover them in depth. We'll recap our favorite win totals.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: I think we'll have a guest and then we'll talk

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Speaker 1: about the six independent schools. Tonight we're talking about the

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Speaker 1: sixty group of five teams. I'm going Colin, I will

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Speaker 1: mention all sixty teams. We're going to try and do

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Speaker 1: it in an hour. We spent I don't know, all summer,

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Speaker 1: in the last couple of days just preparing notes for this.

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Speaker 1: So I'm excited. I'm feeling fresh. I'm ready to go

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Speaker 1: the calm before the storm is over. I went to

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Speaker 1: Costa Rica, you know. I went zip ziplining in the

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Speaker 1: rain forest, snorkeling. It was amazing. I'm fresh. You're fresh

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Speaker 1: back from vacation as well. How was your trip?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Organ was great. I took my two sons up

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Speaker 2: to the Pacific Northwest, got away from the heat here

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Speaker 2: in Oklahoma. We skied at Mount Hood in August. We

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Speaker 2: skied down a black with snow in the middle of August.

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Speaker 2: It was amazing and completely refreshed. I am. I am

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Speaker 2: jacked and ready to go. No sleep until after March

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Speaker 2: Madness coming up. We have a lot to get to.

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Speaker 1: Get your pen, your paper, your laptop, whatever, get it

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Speaker 1: out because we're going to cover a lot and a

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Speaker 1: little amount of time. Let's start with the conference USA

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Speaker 1: fourteen teams, two divisions. I mean, this conference, by the way,

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Speaker 1: is miserable, and it was miserables year. It could be

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Speaker 1: even worse this year. But let's start in the West.

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Speaker 1: The question going into is can anyone beat North Texas

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Speaker 1: and fine at quarterback? Pro prospect is back. They're plus

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Speaker 1: four fifty to win the conference. They do host UAB

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Speaker 1: who is one of the challengers there. You know Tyler

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Speaker 1: Johnson will be back at quarterback, although they did lose

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Speaker 1: a ton and they have a solid running backs back

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Speaker 1: though led by Spencer Brown. The question I have with

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Speaker 1: you AB those they lost four offensive lineman. Their schedule

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Speaker 1: is favorable, though I'm actually eyeing potentially Southern miss to

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Speaker 1: give North Texas some problems. What are your thoughts on

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Speaker 1: the West. The top of the West, you know, the

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Speaker 1: North Texas, UAB, Southern miss maybe LA Tech because we'll

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Speaker 1: get to Utsa, Rice and UTEP were at the bottom.

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Speaker 1: So what are your thoughts on the top of the West.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, u AB is our darling. We you know, cashed

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Speaker 2: a big ticket on him last year. That's great, that

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Speaker 2: was last year. You know, I don't want to really

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Speaker 2: fade them. I know there's a lot of people out

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Speaker 2: there that say UAB lose a ton, but you're going

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Speaker 2: to be fading a really good quarterback that a lot

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Speaker 2: of people don't know about in Tyler Johnson. And you're

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Speaker 2: going to be fading what I think is probably the

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Speaker 2: best coaching the entire conference in Bill Clark. So I

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Speaker 2: don't want anything to do with that. So unfortunately, there's

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Speaker 2: not gonna be any money on the blaze either way

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Speaker 2: for me in the preseason. But you know, the bottom

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Speaker 2: of this is just Trosles, Rice, UTEP, UTSA laughable. Now.

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Speaker 2: I think, you know, Southern, North Texas and l Tech

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Speaker 2: is the question who's going to win the West out

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Speaker 2: of this? In my opinion, the schedule is favorable towards

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Speaker 2: La Tech. Most of these teams have to come through

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Speaker 2: Street Port, they lose a lot in the front seven,

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Speaker 2: but you know, like I said, they have a stellar secondary.

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Speaker 2: I already got to play on them on the Action

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Speaker 2: app if you guys haven't downloaded it and checked it

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Speaker 2: out or give stuck and I follow already on Lateech.

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Speaker 2: A lot of it has to do with you know,

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Speaker 2: they got a quarterback and at a wide receiver connection

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Speaker 2: that it's an extremely explosive Jamar Smith is their quarterback,

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Speaker 2: and Adrian Hardy it's going to be their go to connection.

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Speaker 2: And I just like the fact that everybody has to

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Speaker 2: come through street Port. Their road trips include utep UAB

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Speaker 2: and Rice. I mean, that's that's pretty good for Skip Poults.

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Speaker 2: Skipholtz has never won this conference at all. He's made

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Speaker 2: two trips of the conference championship game, still hasn't pulled

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Speaker 2: it off. I don't want to say he own Seth

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Speaker 2: Latrell at North Texas. You know, he's three and one

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Speaker 2: straight up and against the spread against him, but you know,

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Speaker 2: I mean he does have an advantage as far as

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Speaker 2: coaching goes. And the one thing about North Texas that

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Speaker 2: bugs me stuck is that whole thing that happened with

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Speaker 2: Latrell and Kansas State at the end of last year.

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Speaker 2: His attention was diverted from North Texas at the end

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Speaker 2: of the season, which was benefit to us with UAB,

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Speaker 2: but his attention wasn't there. His team was not prepared

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Speaker 2: going into a bowl game. He didn't care. He had

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Speaker 2: his eyes on Kansas State. He decided not to take

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Speaker 2: the Kansas State job because there was going to be

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Speaker 2: a Snyder on staff that he didn't want to have

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Speaker 2: on staff. So they decided, I gues this, We'll come

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Speaker 2: back to North Texas, do another year with Mason Fine,

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Speaker 2: and maybe we'll see what's out on the open market

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Speaker 2: next season. So my problem with North Texas is where

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Speaker 2: is Seth Latreill's mid November I like ltech here.

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Speaker 1: If you trust Bob Diaco and the defensive coordinator, I

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Speaker 1: knew you're.

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Speaker 2: Going to bring it up the twenty twelve Broils Award

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Speaker 2: winning Bob Diaco. Of course.

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Speaker 1: Look, I'm actually going to back Southern miss I actually

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Speaker 1: have two bets, one in the East. I'm not back

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Speaker 1: in North Texas high And just to let everyone know,

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Speaker 1: no Texas win total seven and a half columnics at

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Speaker 1: eight point four, but no play As you just describe

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Speaker 1: no play on UAB win total. Southern Miss. No play

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Speaker 1: on the win total for me either. But I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: be playing them to win conference essay at plus eight hundred. Look,

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Speaker 1: their d is legit. They're one of the best defenses

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Speaker 1: in the country, are the fewest first downs allowed, they

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Speaker 1: bring fifteen starters back. They were six and five last year,

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Speaker 1: but they lost three games by a field goal or less,

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Speaker 1: and they led the nation and completion percentage. The one

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Speaker 1: thing I'm worried about is, you know, they open without

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Speaker 1: corn State, which is a win. Then they go to

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Speaker 1: Mississippi State that's a loss. But then they're at Troy,

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Speaker 1: and Troy's off a bye, Southern missis going there after

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Speaker 1: Mississippi State, and then the week after Southern Miss is

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Speaker 1: at Bama. So I mean, that's brutal, and that Troy

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Speaker 1: game is such a sandwich, and Troy's off a bye.

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Speaker 1: That's why I can't really play their win total. But

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Speaker 1: I really like this team. I think they're due for

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Speaker 1: some positive regression, So I'm gonna be backing them to

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Speaker 1: win Conference US and Colin is going with LA Tech,

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Speaker 1: and I think the difference there, Colin, you said you know,

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Speaker 1: you like something Miss too, but souther miss goes to

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Speaker 1: La Tech and that was one of the deciding factors

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Speaker 1: for you, right.

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Speaker 2: It was the deciding factor for me, you know, plus

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Speaker 2: Southern miss with that schedule they have at the beginning

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Speaker 2: of Mississippi State in Alabama and Troy kind of sandwiched

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Speaker 2: in between even before they get to UTEP on September

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Speaker 2: twenty eighth. Is depth going to be an issue? Is

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Speaker 2: injury going to be an issue? Because they're going to

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Speaker 2: get their brains pounded in by Misissippi State in Alabama. So,

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Speaker 2: you know, as far as the West goes, that was

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Speaker 2: really kind of a deciding factor.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about the bottom of the West.

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Speaker 1: We have to talk to UTSA look their win totals

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Speaker 1: over two and a half minus one eighty five, which

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Speaker 1: is outrageous to me. It looks like Frank Harris has

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Speaker 1: taken over the quarterback race. He graduated high school in

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Speaker 1: twenty seventeen. I hurt towards ACL and high school was

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Speaker 1: hurt last year. This team's a mess. You make their

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Speaker 1: total one point six and you can get two and

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Speaker 1: a half, maybe three, but two and a half plus

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Speaker 1: big money. So you like the under there right with

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Speaker 1: bee Meat.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, everything is falling off the table here. I'm going

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Speaker 2: to take under two and a half here with UTSA.

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Speaker 2: I don't know where the second win is questionable. The

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Speaker 2: third win I wouldn't even be able to tell you.

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Speaker 2: So they're playing Incarnate Word. You know, there are some

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Speaker 2: FCS lines starting to drop, although I haven't seen this one.

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Speaker 2: This one should be around a two point game, maybe

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Speaker 2: a one point game. And Cardate Word is not bad

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Speaker 2: as a football team at their level. So even if

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Speaker 2: UTSA is able to get past that, they have to

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Speaker 2: go to UTEP. They have to, you know, they get

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Speaker 2: a game against Rice. It's a coin flip in the middle.

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Speaker 2: So just assume that they were able to beat Rice

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Speaker 2: and they go to UTEP and they win that game,

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Speaker 2: and they beating Carnate Word. There's nothing left on this

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Speaker 2: schedule whatsoever. They can't beat La Tech, they can't beat

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Speaker 2: Southern Miss, they can't beat North Texas. This is just

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Speaker 2: too much on the schedule, yep.

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Speaker 1: And then the other you know, we have we'll get

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Speaker 1: to UTEP last in the West. Rice. Their win totals

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Speaker 1: two and a half, under two and a half minus

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Speaker 1: one nine do you make it two and a half.

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Speaker 1: I'm actually looking at this under This schedule is vicious

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Speaker 1: for Rice. By the way, Rice, I'll be looking at

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Speaker 1: there over next year, twenty twenty. They're gonna bring almost

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Speaker 1: everyone back besides their quarterback. Their quarterback this year is

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Speaker 1: Tom Steorart, who comes in from Harvard. Not sure that's

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Speaker 1: going to really work out. This team's still really young,

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Speaker 1: but I mean they go two Army, then they'll play Wake,

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Speaker 1: then Texas, then Taylor, then La Tech than at Ua D.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this schedule is one of the hardest schedules

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Speaker 1: I've ever seen for a Conference USA bottom feeder. They're

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Speaker 1: at UTEP, you know, they're winnable games are really on

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Speaker 1: the road at UTEP and at UTSA. That's really it.

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Speaker 1: Where else are they winning? Marshall Southern miss at home

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Speaker 1: North Texas? I don't at MTSU. I mean, I don't

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Speaker 1: see this team getting the three wins.

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Speaker 2: There's no Prairie View, A and M on the schedule either, right,

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Speaker 2: so we can't have any skinny wins against that. Now.

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Speaker 2: They did get a huge massive bump in returning production,

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Speaker 2: but I'm not I'm not sure that's a great thing.

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Speaker 2: Because bloom Cream runs this offense. It's just slow and bruising,

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Speaker 2: and I'm just not sure that style is going to work.

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Speaker 2: At least it's not going to turn things around as

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Speaker 2: fast as Rice fans and Rice better is wanted to yep.

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Speaker 1: And then we obviously have to talk about UTEP for

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Speaker 1: all of our fans, and Alpasso or al.

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Speaker 2: Paso, we're talking minor nation.

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Speaker 1: Out in the west.

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Speaker 2: The town of past.

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Speaker 1: Picks up. This was a huge thunder last year. We

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Speaker 1: love the under and we got grief for it, and

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Speaker 1: people called in and talked shit from Melpasso a Passo

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Speaker 1: and uh it obviously hit with ease. We wanted to

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Speaker 1: bet the over this year. They have a schedule. It's

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Speaker 1: pretty I have them as the worst team in the

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Speaker 1: nation right now, but I still was possibly thinking about

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Speaker 1: betting them over. We have Houston Baptist at home, UTSA

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Speaker 1: at home, Charlotte at home, Rice at home. There's all

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Speaker 1: these winnable games, and I remember we were sitting in

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Speaker 1: Vegas looking at their schedule the day after the National Championship.

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Speaker 1: Last year's were nerds. We wanted to bet the over,

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Speaker 1: but this is a sharp number at three, like over

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Speaker 1: three flat, you make it two nine. We can't bet

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Speaker 1: UTEP with one of any hot takes on UTIP.

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Speaker 2: It sucks.

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Speaker 1: So more on them to come. But let's get to

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Speaker 1: the East in conference, you say, which is completely wide open.

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Speaker 1: Just throw a dart if you want besides anyone but

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Speaker 1: ODU and Charlotte and in Kentucky. But look, if you

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Speaker 1: look at some of the odds, it looks like Marshall

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Speaker 1: or FIU are your two favorites, and then maybe FAU.

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Speaker 1: You know, Marshall has, you know, an experienced offense, solid

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Speaker 1: offensive line. Isaiah green Come was back at quarterback, and

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Speaker 1: they might have the best trenches in the conference really

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Speaker 1: on offense and defense. Their win total is seven and

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Speaker 1: a half. FIU their win total is seven and a

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Speaker 1: half as well, and same with FAU. So you can

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Speaker 1: see how close these teams are. FAU, you know, they

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Speaker 1: did lose Singletary and White. They are two backs who

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Speaker 1: were both in the NFL. Now they ran over two

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Speaker 1: thousand yards. They were going to get Francois the quarterback

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Speaker 1: in Florida State, but he transferred to Florida A and M.

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Speaker 1: They have this highly touted left tackle Ashley from Auburn

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Speaker 1: who ended up transferring as well. So it really comes

255
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Speaker 1: down to, you know, how well can Robus in their

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Speaker 1: quarterback perform this year. But their d and special teams

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Speaker 1: were hard. They do have a good schedule and you

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Speaker 1: make it eight point three, but you're not betting the

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Speaker 1: over there. And then FIU, I think we're both high

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Speaker 1: on you know, James Morgan quarterback had a great year

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Speaker 1: last year. He's back and then outstanding linebacker by the

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Speaker 1: best defender in the conference in stage Lewis. They're the

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Speaker 1: heads of the offense and defense and there's eight starters

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Speaker 1: back on both, you know, and then they have their

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Speaker 1: their running back. Their best running back is back healthy,

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Speaker 1: good Bowl season, got shot last year. So I love

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Speaker 1: this FIU team. Look, they start at Tulane. If they

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Speaker 1: win that game, there's a potentially start ten and zer

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Speaker 1: and then go into a bye before they played Miami

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Speaker 1: in Marlins Park. So FIU is the other team I

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Speaker 1: have to win this conference along with Southern miss What

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Speaker 1: are your thoughts on the top of the East with Marshall,

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Speaker 1: FIU and FAU.

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Speaker 2: But will the Dolphin be will the Dolphins sign in

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Speaker 2: Marlin's Park be turned on? Will that thing be going

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Speaker 2: off in the middle of the FIU Miami ball game.

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Speaker 2: That's the big question. So I think one team that

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Speaker 2: we can kick out as you don't have a shot

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Speaker 2: in the East to win the division is Middle Tennessee.

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Speaker 2: For me, I got them on, you know, under five

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Speaker 2: and a half. This was a pretty early and a

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Speaker 2: larger investment for me, not just because you know, the

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Speaker 2: stock still connection is gone. You know, Brenton Ricker being

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Speaker 2: split up after the quarterback has been there taking snaps

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Speaker 2: since twenty fourteen. So this is the first time he's

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Speaker 2: going to coach, you know, without his son, you know,

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Speaker 2: since you know, for a large period since twenty fourteen,

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Speaker 2: and yeah, one hundred and twenty second overall returning production.

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Speaker 2: But in the end the days that they has he's

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Speaker 2: not at his son as a quarterback. He doesn't know

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Speaker 2: what to do with the offense or at least they've

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Speaker 2: never haven't covered the spread. They've taken some serious losses.

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Speaker 2: They have just one wide receiver with more than sixty targets,

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Speaker 2: and that's a TI league. The defense was six and

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Speaker 2: sac rate, and they lose fifty percent of their team

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Speaker 2: havoc in the front seven fifty percent of their havoc

297
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Speaker 2: is gone, so that you know, I don't expect them

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Speaker 2: to be sacking anybody. Three of their first four games

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Speaker 2: come against Michigan Duke Iowa. Zero shot not winning those games,

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Speaker 2: and they don't have the depth to get through if

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Speaker 2: they have any injuries. They start off conference play against

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Speaker 2: the heavies Marshall FAU, North Texas FIU. I mean, this

303
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Speaker 2: is not the way you want to start off conference play,

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Speaker 2: especially after you play Michigan Duke in Iowa. So I

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Speaker 2: mean it's just kind of a murder's row for schedules.

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Speaker 2: They could sweep November and it won't even matter. I know,

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Speaker 2: the November schedule is easy, but they could sweep it

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Speaker 2: and it won't matter. So I got under five and

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Speaker 2: a half on Middle Tennessee.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and you agree with me that FIU is who

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Speaker 1: you like to get out of the East, and you

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Speaker 1: played them in the conference as well.

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Speaker 2: Shop for the best number. If you're looking in Jersey shops,

314
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Speaker 2: you're seeing it about. And I don't know if this

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Speaker 2: is a regional thing. I mean, it's a really good

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Speaker 2: point to bring out. But I've seen Florida International plus

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Speaker 2: three fifty but out at the Westgate. They have FIU

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Speaker 2: at eight to one to win the conference. Switch over

319
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Speaker 2: that I can't wait to get my hands on. But

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Speaker 2: Butch Davis has done nothing but fast tracked the Panthers

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Speaker 2: since he took him over as a four and eighteen

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Speaker 2: at eight wins in twenty seventeen. They had nine to

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Speaker 2: four last year. You're right about James Morgan, he's a

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Speaker 2: great quarterback. You know their twenty six and returning production

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Speaker 2: this year and odds makers can't keep up with FIU.

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Speaker 2: They went ten and three against the spread last year

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Speaker 2: and Butch Davis is now six and zero against the

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Speaker 2: spread at home as an underdog. Now, I wrote a

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Speaker 2: piece about this. I wrote a piece on the Action

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Speaker 2: Network that you should go check out. I'm going to

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Speaker 2: rewee him out here before play starts off about some

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Speaker 2: of my favorite pieces that I wrote over the summer.

333
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Speaker 2: But there was why it is explosiveness lying your wallet

334
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Speaker 2: with cash and FIU is the poster child for this.

335
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Speaker 2: So both sides of the ball were tops and isoppp

336
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Speaker 2: Last year the defense had a one point zero seven rating.

337
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Speaker 2: The offense had a one point three three rating. What

338
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Speaker 2: does that mean? The offense is a quick strike, they

339
00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:16,800
Speaker 2: can get ball down the field, they can have thirty

340
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Speaker 2: yard plays. James Morgan is a big part of that,

341
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Speaker 2: the quarterback Captain Morgan, as they like to call him

342
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Speaker 2: down there. You know, if Mason Vine wasn't in the conference,

343
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Speaker 2: this would be the best quarterback in the conference. Defensively,

344
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Speaker 2: a one point zero seven rating. Nobody was getting anything

345
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Speaker 2: deep on FIU. That translates into and against the spread record,

346
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Speaker 2: and they are just the poster child for that. You know,

347
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Speaker 2: they have twenty six then returning production and everybody back

348
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Speaker 2: on both sides of the ball. I expect them to

349
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Speaker 2: still be an explosive offense and I expect their defense

350
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Speaker 2: to be able to keep other teams from having explosive

351
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Speaker 2: plays that you know, to me eight to one, I'll

352
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Speaker 2: take it all day. So I think you need to

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Speaker 2: look at the FIU schedule too. So people look at

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Speaker 2: it and they think it's tricky because they do splay

355
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Speaker 2: some of the big teams on both divisions, but there's

356
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Speaker 2: hidden by weeks in the schedule. I mean, you have

357
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Speaker 2: to remember some of these teams are pretty in their schedule,

358
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Speaker 2: so you know, it kind of serves as a bye week.

359
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Speaker 2: The Panthers have to play New Hampshire before they go

360
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Speaker 2: travel to Louisiana Tech. They play Old Dominion before they

361
00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:11,680
Speaker 2: travel to Florida Atlantic. So even though they play some

362
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Speaker 2: of the bigger boys in the conference, they got a

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Speaker 2: couple scheduling advantages with who they've sandwich in between.

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Speaker 1: I agree with you there. The FIU love and will

365
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Speaker 1: be strong on this podcast all seasons, so get used

366
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Speaker 1: to it. To close out the East, Old Dominion win

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Speaker 1: total four, you make it four. All you got to

368
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Speaker 1: know is they lost everyone. I mean, they lost as

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Speaker 1: much as everyone in the country. They just have a

370
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Speaker 1: couple easy home games. Charlotte over four and a half

371
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Speaker 1: plus one ten, you make it four point nine. And

372
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Speaker 1: that's really just because of their schedule. Their schedule is

373
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Speaker 1: a joke. They have a new head coach, they have

374
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Speaker 1: new schemes on both sides of the ball. They're going

375
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Speaker 1: from a pro style to a spread option. They're moving

376
00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:48,560
Speaker 1: to a four to two five on d the spread option.

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Speaker 1: It could work because they have Benny LeMay is a

378
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Speaker 1: great running back, but they're gonna there are a lot

379
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Speaker 1: of change on both sides of the ball. With Charlotte

380
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Speaker 1: and then Western Kentucky. More changed there as well. Tyson

381
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Speaker 1: Helton is the new head coach, the six he had

382
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Speaker 1: coach in six years at Western Kentucky. Clay Hilton's brother,

383
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Speaker 1: so maybe he'll be a good fade as well. And

384
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Speaker 1: the quarterback in Western Kentucky's probably be Ty Story. Who

385
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Speaker 1: you know about any thoughts on Western Kentucky.

386
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Speaker 2: I love Ty Story. I always did love Ty Story.

387
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Speaker 2: You know, he was a commit to Arkansas. He tried

388
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Speaker 2: to run for Arkansas fans and people that watched Arkansas

389
00:17:19,119 --> 00:17:21,760
Speaker 2: football all like seventeen of us last year, we love

390
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Speaker 2: ty Story over anybody else that was getting behind center.

391
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Speaker 2: They threw any quarterback they could. Even Jerry Jones' grandson

392
00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:32,520
Speaker 2: was back there taking snaps for Arkansas, and we loved

393
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Speaker 2: ty Story the most. And he kind of got a

394
00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:36,000
Speaker 2: run off the program and Chad Morris, you know, kind

395
00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:37,720
Speaker 2: of made it clear that you're probably never going to

396
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Speaker 2: take a snap again. So he's at Western Kentucky. They

397
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Speaker 2: play Arkansas on November ninth, so you know, Arkansas will

398
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Speaker 2: be deep into the schedule by then, but Ty Story

399
00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:47,600
Speaker 2: is going to come to town looking for some redemption.

400
00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:48,960
Speaker 2: So that's one I've got circled.

401
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Speaker 1: Fair enough, let's move on and keep this rolling. Let's

402
00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:55,720
Speaker 1: move on to the American Athletic DAAC. A couple of

403
00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:58,760
Speaker 1: interesting quarterback transfers in this conference toll sasm U, c F,

404
00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:03,920
Speaker 1: UKHON to name it you. Memphis and UCF are favored

405
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Speaker 1: to win this conference. They're both at about two plus

406
00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:09,679
Speaker 1: two fifty at Westgate. Let's start in the West where

407
00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:13,960
Speaker 1: Memphis is the favorite. Houston is the second favorite. Houston,

408
00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:17,120
Speaker 1: you know, they have one of the most explosive quarterbacks

409
00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:20,199
Speaker 1: in the country and Derek King a great receiver in

410
00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:23,399
Speaker 1: Stevenson as well, who's explosive. They did lose their offensive coordinator,

411
00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:25,800
Speaker 1: Kendall Briles. Daniel Holgerson comes in as well. You know,

412
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Speaker 1: there's a lot about explosive offenses. Their win total is

413
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Speaker 1: seven and a half plus four to fifty to win

414
00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:33,919
Speaker 1: the AC. You make this five point seven, so obviously

415
00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:35,960
Speaker 1: you're betting the under. I was shocked to see that

416
00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:39,360
Speaker 1: you're this low and Houston, while Memphis, you know, their

417
00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:40,960
Speaker 1: win total is nine and a half, you make it

418
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Speaker 1: ten point eight. You bet Memphis to win the conference.

419
00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:46,480
Speaker 1: They have you know, they obviously lost their star running

420
00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:48,760
Speaker 1: back Daryl Henderson, but they get all the wide receivers back,

421
00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:51,840
Speaker 1: Brady White's back quarterback. They do have new coordinators, but

422
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Speaker 1: their schedule is cake, especially their first nine games. They

423
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Speaker 1: could they could start off nine to know easily, and

424
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Speaker 1: then from there. I don't really see Toulane, SMU, Navy,

425
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Speaker 1: So I don't think anyone can threaten to win the West.

426
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Speaker 1: So why so low in Houston?

427
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Speaker 2: Well, first eleven games, all right, because game ten is

428
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Speaker 2: Houston and game eleven is South Florida for Memphis. So

429
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Speaker 2: I would say that the you know, leading up to Cincinnati,

430
00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:13,240
Speaker 2: it's going to be a pretty good schedule. But let's

431
00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:15,720
Speaker 2: talk about Houston real quick. So yeah, under seven, I've

432
00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:17,120
Speaker 2: got them, you know, I've got their win total eaving

433
00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:19,639
Speaker 2: below six. This is one of the first plays that

434
00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:22,680
Speaker 2: I made when Dana Holderson. You could see the evolution

435
00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,080
Speaker 2: of this defensive line. In the middle of last season,

436
00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:28,120
Speaker 2: Ed Oliver was on the team. They had another defensive

437
00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:30,639
Speaker 2: lineman that was extremely good. They were creating havoc and

438
00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:32,879
Speaker 2: that's all that was going on in Houston for years

439
00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:35,800
Speaker 2: was the story was the defensive line and how much

440
00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:38,760
Speaker 2: they could at least keep Apple White employed. Kendle Brows

441
00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:41,600
Speaker 2: was there as the offensive coordinator last year. It showed

442
00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:44,000
Speaker 2: in deer At King's stats he had fifty total tds.

443
00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:47,040
Speaker 2: If you did a blind resume poll of Lamar Jackson

444
00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:49,200
Speaker 2: the year that he won the Heisman Trophy versus deer

445
00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:51,440
Speaker 2: King and what he did last year in Houston through

446
00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:54,720
Speaker 2: only ten games. Only ten games, there's not that much

447
00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:59,560
Speaker 2: disparity between those two stat totals. So Deerrick King, you know,

448
00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:01,959
Speaker 2: he's losing Kendall Brows, which worries me a little bit,

449
00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:04,320
Speaker 2: But at the same time, he's got every single weapon

450
00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:07,200
Speaker 2: returning on offense. And that's really what's going on with Houston.

451
00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:09,320
Speaker 2: The reason why I like the under is they're going

452
00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:13,240
Speaker 2: to be explosive offensive team. They can't play a lick

453
00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:16,600
Speaker 2: of defense. The secondary got blown away. The defensive line

454
00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:18,840
Speaker 2: is terrible. If you want to find out how bad

455
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:22,080
Speaker 2: this defensive line is, go to YouTube, go look up

456
00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:24,880
Speaker 2: Army Houston Bowl game and find out just how bad

457
00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:27,080
Speaker 2: this Houston defense is going to be this year. The

458
00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:31,040
Speaker 2: problem is is Houston plays a bunch of explosive offenses.

459
00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:34,160
Speaker 2: If Houston just had a midpack schedule, then I wouldn't

460
00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:36,120
Speaker 2: be so down on them. But listen to the offenses.

461
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 2: They're going to play Oklahoma, Washington State, Memphis, North Texas,

462
00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:42,760
Speaker 2: Central Florida. These are teams that are going to be

463
00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:46,240
Speaker 2: able to score whenever they want against this Houston defense.

464
00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:48,639
Speaker 2: I think five point seven is the correct projection for

465
00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:50,320
Speaker 2: these guys. I don't think it's going to be that

466
00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:52,800
Speaker 2: easy for Daniel Holgerson. Now on the flip side of that,

467
00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:55,360
Speaker 2: some people may have noticed that I took Deerra King

468
00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:58,239
Speaker 2: to win the Heisman. So there's a Heisman article out

469
00:20:58,240 --> 00:20:59,600
Speaker 2: there you guys can go read about who I really

470
00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:01,600
Speaker 2: think is going to win where my real investment is.

471
00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:04,120
Speaker 2: But I have some shedded a little bit of money

472
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:06,399
Speaker 2: on Derek King in two hundred and one odds earlier,

473
00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:08,760
Speaker 2: way earlier this year to win the Heisman. And the

474
00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:11,840
Speaker 2: reason is because of the defense. The more the defense

475
00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:14,600
Speaker 2: gets run off the field and the other team's score

476
00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:16,840
Speaker 2: is Dee King's going to have a whole bunch more snaps.

477
00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:19,520
Speaker 2: So that stat that blind resume I set up against

478
00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:23,040
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson, Let's see what it looks like after. You know,

479
00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 2: Derek King has more snaps this year than he had

480
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:25,640
Speaker 2: last year.

481
00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:27,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I agree with you that I think

482
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:30,159
Speaker 1: Memphis is is going to get through the West. But

483
00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:32,080
Speaker 1: you don't have any other win totals in the West.

484
00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:34,160
Speaker 1: But there's these the four other teams in the West

485
00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:36,159
Speaker 1: do intreat me. I'm trying to figure out which one

486
00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:38,439
Speaker 1: is really going to take that next step. You know,

487
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:43,000
Speaker 1: Tulsas Jacksonith the Baylor transfer quarterback. Navy, you know, I

488
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:45,080
Speaker 1: don't think they can get there. Their defense is just

489
00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:47,600
Speaker 1: not good enough. Malcolm Perry's back at quarterback. They have

490
00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:50,679
Speaker 1: a tough schedule, they have a new defensive coordinator, new barriers,

491
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:53,160
Speaker 1: switching to a four two five, which will hopefully they're

492
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:55,440
Speaker 1: they're hoping can help solve some of their defensive woes.

493
00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:58,560
Speaker 1: The most interesting about Navy to me is Billy Ray.

494
00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:02,520
Speaker 1: Stutsman might not know that name, young kid from Hawaii.

495
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:05,639
Speaker 1: He's an offensive assistant. They're going to be implementing some

496
00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:08,680
Speaker 1: run and shoot, which which Hawaii runs, and you know

497
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:10,159
Speaker 1: you can run some of the run and shoot in

498
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:15,200
Speaker 1: the option to the same formations. So Ken Newmont tololo I,

499
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:18,639
Speaker 1: that's good. He he wants to improve their passing game.

500
00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:21,960
Speaker 1: Obviously their passing game is atocious last year. So Billy

501
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 1: Ray stuts and they're gonna you might see some run

502
00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 1: and shoot at Navy.

503
00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:26,880
Speaker 2: Is it gonna be Malcolm Parry though two years ago

504
00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:28,160
Speaker 2: and then he disappeared last year.

505
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:30,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, apparently it's gonna be Malcolm Parry, but who knows.

506
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:32,000
Speaker 1: They might move him back to running back. You never

507
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:33,879
Speaker 1: really know with Navy. But you know, Tolstad in a

508
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,240
Speaker 1: LA you speak to Tolls are in your backyard. But

509
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 1: the two teams that I think could take that next

510
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 1: step if things go right, or either SMU or Tulane.

511
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:42,600
Speaker 1: So SMU, I don't want to play their win total

512
00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:44,199
Speaker 1: because I think if I like them enough, I might

513
00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:46,919
Speaker 1: play them plus three week one at ARC State, but

514
00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:51,440
Speaker 1: you know they have the Texas transfer Shane Bouschelle at quarterback.

515
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:54,159
Speaker 1: They have two solid receivers. I love Perche This is

516
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 1: the second year Sonny Dike's in his system. Guy, you

517
00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:02,440
Speaker 1: are off on defense. They have ten of their top

518
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 1: eleven tacklers back. So there's a lot to like about

519
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 1: the Ponies if everything goes right and the quarterback play

520
00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:11,639
Speaker 1: goes how they are expecting with Dykes there in his

521
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:14,640
Speaker 1: second year. And then Tulane, they have a new offensive coordinator,

522
00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:16,639
Speaker 1: Will Hall, is going to play some hall ball. They

523
00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:18,879
Speaker 1: might go more no huddle, more fast paced. They're going

524
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 1: to pass more. They passed more last year. They've been

525
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,960
Speaker 1: traditionally an option team, and you know McMillan justin McMillan

526
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 1: and LSU transfers back at quarterback. It's actually his fifth

527
00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:28,439
Speaker 1: offensive coordinator in five years, which could be a problem.

528
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:31,080
Speaker 1: But I think their d could be solid, if solid,

529
00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:34,080
Speaker 1: really solid skill position players. And they actually had a

530
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:38,119
Speaker 1: huge transfer from McCleskey, wide receiver from Oklahoma State. He

531
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:39,719
Speaker 1: is a hell of a player and I think one

532
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:42,000
Speaker 1: only one of the reasons that he went there is

533
00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 1: because his dad a former pro. He's a coach there,

534
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:48,119
Speaker 1: So you know they have some potential at Tulane. Do

535
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:49,520
Speaker 1: you do you have any thoughts on either SEM or

536
00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:50,920
Speaker 1: Tulane or do you want to speak to Tulsa in

537
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:51,560
Speaker 1: your backyard.

538
00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 2: I'll speak to Tulsi. Yeah, they're a couple miles down

539
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 2: the street from from the house here. And I think

540
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:57,919
Speaker 2: what was holding them back for a bunch of years

541
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:01,399
Speaker 2: was they had their defensive coordinat Bill Young, who was

542
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:04,439
Speaker 2: I think been coaching since the early sixties. That's not

543
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:08,000
Speaker 2: an exaggeration. He has been around a long time. He

544
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 2: has retired. So Phil Montgomery was Phil Montgomery is the

545
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:15,240
Speaker 2: old offensive coordinator in the Baylor days when Robert Griffin

546
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:17,600
Speaker 2: the Third was there, so he was considered a quarterback whisper.

547
00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:19,679
Speaker 2: But it just has not turned out at Tulsa the

548
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:22,399
Speaker 2: way that a lot of people up here thought it would.

549
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,600
Speaker 2: Last year's linebacker coach Joseph Gillespie, he is now the

550
00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:27,960
Speaker 2: new defensive coordinator. I think they knew that Bill Young

551
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:29,719
Speaker 2: was going to retire. I think they knew that he

552
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:31,200
Speaker 2: was on his way out the door because last year

553
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 2: they started to install a three three five, which is

554
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 2: not the easiest thing to go to. But the second

555
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:37,639
Speaker 2: year of the three three five and their rank in

556
00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 2: the top twenty defensively in returning productions. So I expect

557
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:44,199
Speaker 2: Tulsa to get to five wins. You can get the

558
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 2: over I think it plus money on the four and

559
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:49,000
Speaker 2: a half shop around. But you know, they can flirt

560
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:51,000
Speaker 2: with Bowl eligibility. It just depends on how far that

561
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:53,360
Speaker 2: that defense can carry them. Because you know, we saw

562
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:55,720
Speaker 2: last year what the offense could do. You know, I

563
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:59,280
Speaker 2: mean everything from Seth Boomer to Luke Skipper, Zack Smith

564
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 2: is there. Mean, the offense is a little shaky to me,

565
00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 2: but I think the defense actually has a bit of improvement.

566
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:08,240
Speaker 2: I think they could jump up in the top seventy five.

567
00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 1: So there's a Tulsa report. We'll have more on them

568
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:12,399
Speaker 1: throughout the year. So let's move on to the East.

569
00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:14,159
Speaker 1: So we'll just a sum up to West Collins on

570
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:17,400
Speaker 1: the under on Houston and Memphis to win the conference.

571
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 1: I'll have my futures piece out and favorite win totals

572
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:22,200
Speaker 1: next week. I'm still deciding on what I want to

573
00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:25,840
Speaker 1: do in the West. In the East, I know we're

574
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:28,159
Speaker 1: gonna have some hot takes here, the UCF crowd, the

575
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 1: Orlando crowd, who's itching to getting the voicemails for Colin?

576
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:34,440
Speaker 1: Your win total is nine. Colin makes it eight point one.

577
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 1: Ucfs won eighteen straight conference games. Their offensive line is

578
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:41,919
Speaker 1: going to be solid protecting looks like Brandon Winbush, another

579
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 1: quarterback transfer from Notre Dame, who will be under center.

580
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:48,360
Speaker 1: They're plus two to fifty like Memphis to win the conference.

581
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 1: So obviously oddsmakers think it's gonna be UCF Memphis in

582
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 1: the AAC Championship. A couple other interesting teams obviously ECU

583
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 1: and Yukon are at the bottom, although Colin might tell

584
00:25:57,520 --> 00:25:59,040
Speaker 1: you some different about East You. We'll get to that.

585
00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:02,440
Speaker 1: But Temple, it's really interesting tumbles that I'm not a

586
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 1: seven head coaches in the last eight months. But Rod

587
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:08,600
Speaker 1: Carrey comes over from Northern Illinois. They're an interesting team.

588
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 1: So they have these head coach change, but they have

589
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:13,199
Speaker 1: a great offensive line. And then Anthony Russo, I like

590
00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 1: a quarterback, a solid d and they host both Memphis

591
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 1: and UCF. Their win total six and a half, you

592
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:21,119
Speaker 1: make it eight point two. I'll let you speak to

593
00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:22,919
Speaker 1: that in a second after I get the SINSI who

594
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 1: I do want to say? Yeah, since he has a

595
00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:28,359
Speaker 1: very solid team, win total seven f, you only make

596
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:30,400
Speaker 1: it six point nine. They do have an excellent punter.

597
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:32,120
Speaker 1: I gotta get some special teams in Aaron James Smith.

598
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:34,919
Speaker 1: By the way, in Cincinnati, Desmond Rider, a quarterback is

599
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:37,840
Speaker 1: back since he has some potential. And then USF and

600
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:41,440
Speaker 1: their defense is ugh, but Bake Barnett back healthy at quarterback.

601
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:43,400
Speaker 1: They do have a new offensive coordinator, but their offense

602
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:46,440
Speaker 1: should be explosive and Kronkite's back in the backfield. Mitchell

603
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:48,560
Speaker 1: Wilcox is a start, tight end, maybe one of the

604
00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 1: best in the country. Do you see UCF getting to

605
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:53,240
Speaker 1: this title game and breezing through the East or do

606
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 1: you see any sleepers there? We'll get the ECU and

607
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:58,760
Speaker 1: Yukon next. And why aren't you playing the UCF under

608
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:01,920
Speaker 1: And why aren't you playing Temple over with such discrepancies

609
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:04,360
Speaker 1: with UCF at eight point one, even though the win

610
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:06,880
Speaker 1: total is nine and Temple you make eight point two

611
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:08,200
Speaker 1: in the win total six and a half.

612
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:10,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a lot of questions coming out of this

613
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:12,399
Speaker 2: division here, So let let's start off with Temple. They're

614
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:14,960
Speaker 2: kind of quick and easy for me because there were things.

615
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 2: Even though that I have this at eight point two

616
00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:18,680
Speaker 2: and the win total is lower than that, you would

617
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:21,240
Speaker 2: expect an overplay. But I mean, this is Rod Carry.

618
00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 2: This is a first year coach coming in after they've

619
00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:25,719
Speaker 2: had so much transition between Matt Ruhle and Jeff Collins.

620
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:27,359
Speaker 2: And we love the Owls, we always have. But the

621
00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:29,600
Speaker 2: problem is, I don't like Rod Carry. If you look

622
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:32,960
Speaker 2: at some of the efficiencies on defense and especially on offense,

623
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:36,160
Speaker 2: Northern Illinois did not get better. I think he left

624
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:38,120
Speaker 2: Northern Illinois in a worse place than what they were

625
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 2: when he first arrived. That showed up and it gets

626
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:42,680
Speaker 2: the spread that showed up in their offense. So there's

627
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 2: nothing impressive from his coaching's past that makes me want

628
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:48,639
Speaker 2: to take a Temple over here. I'm confined to letting

629
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,960
Speaker 2: that sit because that group of kids that plays for Temple,

630
00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:54,200
Speaker 2: they have Jeff Collins and Georgia Tech on the schedule.

631
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:56,520
Speaker 2: If they lose that game, how deflated are they going

632
00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 2: to be for the rest of the season. I mean,

633
00:27:57,640 --> 00:27:59,199
Speaker 2: that is their super Bowl. So I just don't want

634
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:01,720
Speaker 2: any part of this wind to You know, Cincinnati kind

635
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:03,320
Speaker 2: of got the number right where it's supposed to be.

636
00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:06,160
Speaker 2: I know it was it opened and has been steamed

637
00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:09,159
Speaker 2: all season long. I do like them in Week one

638
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:10,920
Speaker 2: against UCLA, So we'll get to that in a couple

639
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:13,000
Speaker 2: of weeks. South Florida is going to be an under

640
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:15,679
Speaker 2: for me. You know, the Bulls ended last season on

641
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:18,200
Speaker 2: a six game losing streak, capped by a home game

642
00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:21,160
Speaker 2: Bowl loss against Marshall and the Bad Boy Mower's Bowl.

643
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 2: So you know, Blake Barnett returns to a pretty experienced offense.

644
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 2: I mean, I mean, there's just no bite to this

645
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:29,800
Speaker 2: South Florida team whatsoever offensively, even though they're returning everybody,

646
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:32,160
Speaker 2: they do get a new offensive coordinator in and Kerwin Bell.

647
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:34,359
Speaker 2: He was twenty seven and seven about those to State.

648
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 2: But they just have a brutal November schedule. The defense

649
00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:40,200
Speaker 2: has off the table, can'ting find, had been over on

650
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 2: the floor, looked forward to, can't even find and they've

651
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 2: fallen so far off the table.

652
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 1: Well, I do want to say six and a half

653
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:46,480
Speaker 1: is win total in UCF. Colleges are four point eight,

654
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:50,480
Speaker 1: so really loves the under there and UCF. It really

655
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:53,680
Speaker 1: comes down to they have just a favorable schedule. We've

656
00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 1: been over this on other podcast, will be over this

657
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 1: a couple more times throughout the year. But they kept

658
00:28:57,480 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 1: some good teams, Stanford, pit in good spot for them

659
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:03,520
Speaker 1: and bad spots for Stanford and Pitt. Which is why

660
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 1: you're not going under her team that has one A

661
00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 1: teams in the conference games. But you're also not betting

662
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:08,880
Speaker 1: to win the conference.

663
00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 2: No, I'm not taking Central Florida to win the conference.

664
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:14,320
Speaker 2: So let me talk about Central Florida and why you

665
00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 2: guys bugged the hell out of me. And you're already

666
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 2: complaining about your ranking in the AP pole. It does

667
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:21,640
Speaker 2: not matter. The AP pole doesn't mean anything. The coach's

668
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:24,200
Speaker 2: pole doesn't mean anything. It's the College Football Playoff that

669
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:26,360
Speaker 2: means something, and you guys aren't getting in. You should

670
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 2: have taken that two in one with Florida. In my opinion,

671
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 2: I digress. Let's talk about the schedule. You're going to

672
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 2: play Florida A and M, and then after that you're

673
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 2: going to have three non conference games that you're probably

674
00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 2: gonna pound your chest about. And look and see, we

675
00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 2: played Lane Kiffin, we played Stanford, we played pitt Well,

676
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:41,479
Speaker 2: let's look at that a little bit more closely. You're

677
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 2: getting Florida Atlantic the week after they play Ohio State.

678
00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:47,600
Speaker 2: You're getting Stanford to come cross country in between two

679
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 2: PAC twelve games in between I think USC and Oregon.

680
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:53,600
Speaker 2: That's amazing. You're getting Pittsburgh. You're going to Pittsburgh to

681
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:56,400
Speaker 2: play them right after they played Penn State. Pittsburgh doesn't

682
00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 2: want to play you guys, all right, and you beat

683
00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:00,320
Speaker 2: the hell out of them last year, and and we

684
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 2: talked about Pittsburgh on the ACC pod. I like them

685
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:04,720
Speaker 2: for the ACC. I don't think they care about this game,

686
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:07,719
Speaker 2: especially after they get done playing Penn State, which matters

687
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:10,360
Speaker 2: a lot to them. So I think you're gonna get

688
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 2: over eight point one wins. The math says eight point one. Situationally,

689
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 2: you have the best schedule in the nation to say

690
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 2: we are the best G five team because you catch

691
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:23,560
Speaker 2: all of these good teams in bad spots. Are you

692
00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:25,360
Speaker 2: going to go over the total? And it's just gonna

693
00:30:25,360 --> 00:30:27,000
Speaker 2: annoy me? But you're not going to win the conference

694
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 2: because my hot take on this is that East Carolina

695
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:30,240
Speaker 2: is gonna win.

696
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, East Carolina half one of your largest win totals.

697
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:35,400
Speaker 1: Their win totals over four and a half minus one

698
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:37,520
Speaker 1: ninety year five, depending on where you look. Did you

699
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:39,800
Speaker 1: make the five point eight? This is a team that

700
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 1: brings in an entire new staff. It's basically the JMU

701
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:45,000
Speaker 1: staff from last year and new head coach Mike Houston

702
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:47,880
Speaker 1: who basically brought a staff from JMU in And before

703
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 1: I let you get that, there's also a Yukon win

704
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:51,000
Speaker 1: total two and a half, you make it one point eight.

705
00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:52,520
Speaker 1: I mean, they had one of the worst defenses in

706
00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:54,520
Speaker 1: the history of college football last year. I don't care

707
00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 1: who they're bringing back yep or they still should suck

708
00:30:57,360 --> 00:31:00,360
Speaker 1: at quarterback. You know, Washington transferred to the down to

709
00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:02,920
Speaker 1: Mike Bodery, a D two transfer from West Florida or

710
00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:05,680
Speaker 1: a redshirt freshman. The Yukon's trash. They probably have a

711
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 1: couple of games they could win at home, but I

712
00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:11,440
Speaker 1: mean the team's irrelevant. So ECU, you just love the

713
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 1: Dukes and jam you that much, and Mike Houston, you're

714
00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:16,320
Speaker 1: buying them potentially win the conference.

715
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's all it is is. Mike Houston comes over

716
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 2: from James Madison. He won a twenty sixteen national championship.

717
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:23,200
Speaker 2: Let's put it this way. I had a book shut

718
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 2: me down, Like I fired a couple of nickel shots

719
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:27,880
Speaker 2: on ACU and then they said no premiere limited to

720
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 2: thirteen dollars. So I won't name the book, but.

721
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 1: It was three hundred to one. I went down to

722
00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 1: eighty to one.

723
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:34,959
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's down to eighty to one because Colin got

724
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:37,440
Speaker 2: shut down to a thirteen dollar bet. So the next

725
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 2: time I'm in town, I have beers with the bookmaker.

726
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 2: I'll let him know what happened. But now there's the

727
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 2: reason I like these guys a lot. You know, I

728
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 2: thought there was a stellar hire in Mike Houston who

729
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:48,360
Speaker 2: almost ended up at Charlotte. Crazy story. If you guys

730
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:50,240
Speaker 2: go read about that he's gonna end up at Charlotte

731
00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 2: and last one at ECU swept in and got him.

732
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:55,600
Speaker 2: You know, he's he's perfect as a head coach. It's

733
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:57,080
Speaker 2: time for him to take the level up. He brings

734
00:31:57,120 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 2: everybody in from James Madison for the over four schedule.

735
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:03,400
Speaker 2: That includes Gardner Webb, it includes William and Mary. That's

736
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:06,360
Speaker 2: going to help them get to five wins. Their quarterback

737
00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 2: is fantastic, same as Holton Alers. If you guys want

738
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:12,000
Speaker 2: to go look him up on YouTube. He splits on

739
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:13,920
Speaker 2: him and his limited action that he played last year

740
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:15,800
Speaker 2: as a freshman. He's now a sophomore. He had a

741
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 2: twelve to three TD to I in t ratio, but

742
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:19,680
Speaker 2: he was also the team's leading rusher. He had six

743
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 2: hundred and ninety three yards rushing and six total and

744
00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 2: six t d's on the ground, So I mean that

745
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:26,920
Speaker 2: gives him an eighteen to three TD to interception ratio.

746
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:29,680
Speaker 2: You know they have seven offensive lineman that returned with

747
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:32,280
Speaker 2: at least one start last year. That's a deep offensive

748
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 2: line that's going to be able to protect him. I

749
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 2: think the Pirates are going to flirt with a bull

750
00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:39,080
Speaker 2: this season. Their schedule is not that tough. I know

751
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:42,040
Speaker 2: UCF's in there. We mentioned how I don't like Temple,

752
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:44,120
Speaker 2: you know, South Florida, I don't like it. All. They

753
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:46,120
Speaker 2: get a game against the Yukon, which is a freebet.

754
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 2: East Carolina, I think, is going to be in a bowl.

755
00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 2: You know, at three hundred one, two hundred one, one

756
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:53,800
Speaker 2: hundred one eighty to one. If all I have to

757
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:55,720
Speaker 2: do is play Central Florida on the other side when

758
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 2: that game comes up, fine, so be it. So October nineteenth,

759
00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:01,040
Speaker 2: you know the point spread is going to be somewhere

760
00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 2: around what twenty four. I mean, it's a shot in

761
00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:06,240
Speaker 2: the dark. But I think East Carolina is that G

762
00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 2: five team that can have a huge instant turnaround in

763
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 2: one year.

764
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 1: I can't buy it now. I appreciate the bold stance

765
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 1: that and I think that the higher Mike Houston's a

766
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 1: good higher. I just don't know if he could take

767
00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 1: a team that got absolutely fucking trucked by anybody with

768
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:24,480
Speaker 1: a pulse last year. I mean the two games to

769
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:26,600
Speaker 1: end the year at Sincy, they lost what one hundred

770
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 1: and ninety four to nothing or something. I think it

771
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 1: was sixty to six. And then they went two NC

772
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 1: State and lost I think sixty to three. I think

773
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:35,720
Speaker 1: they kicked the field goal at the end. It was

774
00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:38,680
Speaker 1: fifty eight three. They lost. They lost an NCA and

775
00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:42,560
Speaker 1: t They lost forty nine to six at Temple. Maybe

776
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 1: they can get the five wins because they're easy scheduled,

777
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:48,160
Speaker 1: but we'll debate about That's what scares me. I played

778
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:50,800
Speaker 1: them against MC State that game. All right, we'll have

779
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 1: much more on ECU throughout the year. Collins love affair

780
00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 1: with the Pirates. All right, let's move on to what

781
00:33:57,280 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 1: you're all been waiting for, some maction. This looks like

782
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:02,720
Speaker 1: a down year in the MAC, to be honest, compared

783
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 1: to what it usually is. There's some new coaches Central Michigan,

784
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:08,360
Speaker 1: accor in Bowling Green, Northern Illinois. But let's start in

785
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:12,480
Speaker 1: the East, which looks much more wide open and weaker

786
00:34:12,560 --> 00:34:13,760
Speaker 1: again than the West.

787
00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:14,439
Speaker 2: You know, you have.

788
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:18,040
Speaker 1: Buffalo win total at six. They lost Tiree Jackson, they

789
00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 1: lost their two wide receivers, Anthony Johnson, Osborne transferred. Maybury

790
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:25,799
Speaker 1: also transferred. They're the only returns three starters win total six.

791
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 1: You make it six point four but Buffalo could be

792
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:29,440
Speaker 1: a mess and the team I might be looking to

793
00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:32,040
Speaker 1: fade early. Miami o Ohio. Let's take a minute to

794
00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:37,600
Speaker 1: pour one out for Gus. Gus Gragland. We loved the quarterback.

795
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:39,800
Speaker 1: They got robbed, still met, they didn't go to a bowl.

796
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 1: They lost a ton on offense. We don't trust Chuck Martin,

797
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 1: who's never won more than six games. Their win totals

798
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:47,839
Speaker 1: five and a half by in Ohio and Buffalo. Those

799
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:51,240
Speaker 1: are the two biggest challenges to Ohio. Who should walk

800
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 1: really to the MAC Championship. They did lose you know,

801
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 1: let it running back and Poppy White their best receiver,

802
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:00,879
Speaker 1: but work returns at under center. They've good special teams,

803
00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:02,960
Speaker 1: as they always do. They're off a by before they

804
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:06,439
Speaker 1: go to Buffalo. This is a revenge tour. I think

805
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:09,000
Speaker 1: for Ohio, they lost a lot of tough games to

806
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:11,560
Speaker 1: Northern Illinois to the games they should have won. Miami

807
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:13,880
Speaker 1: of Ohio. I think Ohio is to play here. We

808
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 1: both and we talked right before this podcast. We both

809
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:18,640
Speaker 1: played them at plus two fifty plus three hundred, where

810
00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 1: you can five close to fifty or wesk right now

811
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:22,319
Speaker 1: to win the MAC Miama Ohio. You actually make six

812
00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:23,879
Speaker 1: point four and the win totals five and a half.

813
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:26,000
Speaker 1: But you don't trust Martin neither And we're Hio on Ohio.

814
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:26,839
Speaker 1: Would you agree there?

815
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:30,040
Speaker 2: The head coach of Miami of Ohio, he cannot it was.

816
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 2: It was a problem leading up to last season and

817
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 2: finally there was a couple of games where he turned

818
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:35,640
Speaker 2: it around, but just could never win any close ones.

819
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:37,520
Speaker 2: So I don't trust them. And Gus Raglan was the

820
00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:40,120
Speaker 2: big reason, you know that that we wanted to back

821
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:42,239
Speaker 2: them as frequently as he could. Plus they were they

822
00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:44,640
Speaker 2: were good at defending the rush. They lose some pieces

823
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:44,880
Speaker 2: from that.

824
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, there are two beast linebackers. There's studs. Yeah, four

825
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:49,520
Speaker 1: two five and that's those are huge losses.

826
00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:51,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, don't trust them. Well, you know, as far as

827
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:53,880
Speaker 2: they can throw them, So definitely don't like them. And

828
00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:57,359
Speaker 2: then you know, we talk about Akron. Akron was one

829
00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:58,839
Speaker 2: of the teams two years ago. I mean we talked

830
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:01,560
Speaker 2: about Ohio has a revenge. Two years ago, Ohio was

831
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 2: supposed to be in the conference title game and Akron

832
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:06,080
Speaker 2: kind of slipped their way in with Cato Nelson. So

833
00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:09,480
Speaker 2: you know, Akron's a team I think has the possibility

834
00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:12,919
Speaker 2: to compete with UTSA and Yukon as the worst team

835
00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:15,239
Speaker 2: in FBS. We'll see how the power ratings go after

836
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 2: a couple of weeks. But Bowling Green I'm taking under three.

837
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:20,360
Speaker 2: So one of the players I've got in this conference,

838
00:36:20,560 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 2: you know, player turnover, new coaches and Scott Loffler, new schemes,

839
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 2: no depth in the program, quarterback going everything that you

840
00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 2: need to put in your mixing bowl to get an

841
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:31,080
Speaker 2: under and cash a ticket at a window. Bowling Green's

842
00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:34,120
Speaker 2: got it. So Scott Loffler has never improved any any

843
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:37,720
Speaker 2: team he's ever stopped at. They have three realistic chances

844
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:40,480
Speaker 2: that a win. That's Akron Central Michigan. The Chips new

845
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:43,560
Speaker 2: head coach is Jim mcelvain, So I mean he's gonna

846
00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 2: get out coached in that spot right there. So I

847
00:36:45,760 --> 00:36:47,440
Speaker 2: just maybe it puaches. I don't think it does. I

848
00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 2: think the Bowling Green under, But I do like Kent

849
00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:52,759
Speaker 2: State over Their new coach Jawn Lewis has done a

850
00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:55,040
Speaker 2: great job since he's got there. For what he's got,

851
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:56,880
Speaker 2: the budget he's got in the program that he's got

852
00:36:56,920 --> 00:36:58,800
Speaker 2: at Kent State, you know, you can shop around and

853
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 2: get a three and a half, but you know it's

854
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 2: worth it. I'm gonna take the over the Golden Flashes

855
00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:05,080
Speaker 2: face for most winnable games at home with Kennesas State,

856
00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:08,880
Speaker 2: Bowling Green, Ball State. A road game at Akron is

857
00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:11,000
Speaker 2: good to get the push before it's going to be

858
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:13,759
Speaker 2: a coin flip, in my opinion. With a Buffalo team

859
00:37:13,760 --> 00:37:15,920
Speaker 2: you already mentioned it. I mean with what they lost,

860
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:18,840
Speaker 2: you know, wide receiver and quarterback, that's going to be

861
00:37:18,880 --> 00:37:21,200
Speaker 2: a rebuild kind of there. And then miamible Hio again

862
00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:23,000
Speaker 2: is going to come back to the pack. So I

863
00:37:23,080 --> 00:37:24,960
Speaker 2: like ken State over four. I think at a minimum

864
00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:25,560
Speaker 2: that it pushes.

865
00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:27,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, you mentioned Bowling Green. They're switching from an ar

866
00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:31,279
Speaker 1: ra to a more. You know, they're going to run

867
00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:33,160
Speaker 1: the ball more rely on Andrew Clair, who is a

868
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:35,520
Speaker 1: solid running back, but you know Lorenzo Table and their

869
00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:37,399
Speaker 1: left tackle was the Smith's. They lost their best wide

870
00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:40,560
Speaker 1: receiver in the NFL. Their quarterback Doge is gone. I mean,

871
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:44,480
Speaker 1: this team's a mess. Akron experienced offense and Cato Nelson

872
00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:46,839
Speaker 1: back under center, but new coaching staff, they're switching from

873
00:37:46,840 --> 00:37:49,440
Speaker 1: a spread to a pro style attack. They want Nelson

874
00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:52,120
Speaker 1: in the pocket more. I don't know why his best

875
00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:55,200
Speaker 1: assets his legs disaster. I mean their their wide receiver

876
00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:58,200
Speaker 1: Morris was shut down. Their d is wretched. I agree

877
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 1: with you there on Acron and Bowling Green. Kent State, yeah,

878
00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:03,799
Speaker 1: I think they could improve this year in the year

879
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:05,760
Speaker 1: two under Shawn Lewis, you know, and they have Woody

880
00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:08,200
Speaker 1: Barrett back the Auburn transfer. Speaking of which, Week three

881
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:10,400
Speaker 1: they go to Auburn and cus Mazan. He never likes

882
00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:13,400
Speaker 1: to show things when they play these, you know, inferior teams.

883
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:15,399
Speaker 1: You know, I want to look at Kent State. There

884
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 1: is a live dog. The problem is the offensive line

885
00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:19,960
Speaker 1: is really small and going against that Auburn defensive line

886
00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:22,680
Speaker 1: is a nightmare. And I know Kent State plays a

887
00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:24,520
Speaker 1: hurry up and then Sewn Lewis wants to go go

888
00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:27,200
Speaker 1: go where they have eighty STAPs per game last year.

889
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 1: The year before they were at like sixty six. So

890
00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:30,919
Speaker 1: but I still want to play a under. I don't

891
00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:32,879
Speaker 1: think I think Auburn would go vanilla and Kent State

892
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:34,680
Speaker 1: won't be able to move the ball at that offensive line.

893
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:37,439
Speaker 1: But I do think at the conference in the MAC

894
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:39,319
Speaker 1: they can have an improvement. I agree with you on

895
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:42,560
Speaker 1: that over there, but we both agree. In the East,

896
00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:45,560
Speaker 1: it's all about Ohio and we're both on them to

897
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 1: win the conference. Let's move on to the West, which

898
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:50,920
Speaker 1: I think is a three team race, or I think

899
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:52,360
Speaker 1: it's a two team race. Some people say it's a

900
00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:55,280
Speaker 1: three team race between Northern Illinois Toledo and Western Michigan.

901
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 1: Western Michigan. You know, the problem is their best receiver,

902
00:38:58,600 --> 00:39:00,680
Speaker 1: Jayden Reed, is a freshman All America and he transferred

903
00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 1: to Michigan State. And then you know they had another

904
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:05,920
Speaker 1: wide receiver transferre to app State. You know, so they

905
00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:09,120
Speaker 1: have Waslston coming back at quarterback, but can he stay healthy.

906
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:11,799
Speaker 1: You know, they're good with him. I think they're eleven

907
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:14,080
Speaker 1: six with them under center and two and six without them.

908
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:17,640
Speaker 1: But losing those two wide receivers hurts. They also have

909
00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:20,040
Speaker 1: bad bye weeks. So then it comes down to n

910
00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:23,279
Speaker 1: IU in Toledo n IU. There's a quarterback battle ross

911
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:25,520
Speaker 1: Bowers from cal and shoulders last year. You know, they

912
00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:28,440
Speaker 1: do have harveston back tears on the wide receiver and

913
00:39:28,440 --> 00:39:30,759
Speaker 1: they have a new head coach, Thomas Tammick, who is

914
00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:33,479
Speaker 1: the Ravens running back coach who's at Wisconsin. They're gonna

915
00:39:33,520 --> 00:39:34,920
Speaker 1: run it a lot. I think they're gonna rely on

916
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:38,120
Speaker 1: harvest and they could be a good under team. Even

917
00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:40,640
Speaker 1: though they lost you know, Sutton Smith and Josh Corkan,

918
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:43,320
Speaker 1: their two best dns. I still think the should be solid.

919
00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:45,640
Speaker 1: But we'll see how much of an impact those two

920
00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:48,759
Speaker 1: losses are. But you know, Northern Illinois not buying. I

921
00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:51,000
Speaker 1: think it's Toledo that's going to come out of here.

922
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:54,280
Speaker 1: You have Guadani back at quarterback, they have a strong

923
00:39:54,360 --> 00:39:56,440
Speaker 1: running game. Even though they do have to replace their

924
00:39:56,440 --> 00:39:58,920
Speaker 1: top three receivers. I still think they'll be okay with

925
00:39:58,960 --> 00:40:01,399
Speaker 1: that favorable schedule. Actually, there are a live dog week

926
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:04,360
Speaker 1: one at Kentucky catching eleven eleven and a half. So

927
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:06,560
Speaker 1: what are your thoughts on the top of the West

928
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:09,760
Speaker 1: between noither And Illinois, Toledo and Western Michigan.

929
00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:12,760
Speaker 2: As far as the bottom of Eastern Michigan. Toledo's Central Michigan,

930
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:15,640
Speaker 2: they have some of the worst returning production ranks on defense.

931
00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:18,879
Speaker 2: So when Stuck starts off the MAC and he says

932
00:40:18,880 --> 00:40:20,759
Speaker 2: that this is a rebuilding year for the conference, it

933
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:23,040
Speaker 2: truly is. I mean it's a reset. As far as

934
00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:26,640
Speaker 2: Northern Illinois getting a new coach Toledo's schedule and cross

935
00:40:26,680 --> 00:40:30,280
Speaker 2: division games versus what Western Michigan has and cross division

936
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:33,000
Speaker 2: games is what makes the difference for me. Toledo's schedule

937
00:40:33,640 --> 00:40:39,440
Speaker 2: includes Buffalo, it includes Bowling Green, it includes Kent State.

938
00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 2: I mean, those are those are three teams from the

939
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:43,920
Speaker 2: East Division that are all you know, three of the

940
00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 2: four worst that are in the bottom on the other side,

941
00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:49,200
Speaker 2: So they have a much easier schedule at least cross

942
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:52,200
Speaker 2: division versus say Western Michigan, who's got to play all

943
00:40:52,200 --> 00:40:54,600
Speaker 2: the big boys. They don't have as easier as a schedule,

944
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:56,879
Speaker 2: and most of their the toughest games are on the road.

945
00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:59,160
Speaker 2: So there's definitely a big difference between Toledo and Western

946
00:40:59,160 --> 00:41:02,600
Speaker 2: Michigan and their strength schedule within the conference, which you know,

947
00:41:02,760 --> 00:41:04,719
Speaker 2: and Toledo host between the two when they go head

948
00:41:04,760 --> 00:41:05,040
Speaker 2: to head.

949
00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, I mean some other notes on some of

950
00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:10,880
Speaker 1: those bottom feeders. You know, Eastern Michigan should have a

951
00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:13,600
Speaker 1: good secondary Mike Glasses back at quarterback, but they have

952
00:41:13,680 --> 00:41:17,040
Speaker 1: questions on the interier of their offensive line, their you know, defense.

953
00:41:17,040 --> 00:41:19,400
Speaker 1: They lost Max Crosby, which is huge with the NFL,

954
00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:21,919
Speaker 1: and their best linebackers are gone. They only play five

955
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:24,160
Speaker 1: home games, you know, but their wine toital six and

956
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:25,560
Speaker 1: a half, you make it seven point one. They have

957
00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:28,399
Speaker 1: some winnable games on that schedule. Then you get down

958
00:41:28,400 --> 00:41:31,160
Speaker 1: to the real basement, and you know, ball State, Riley

959
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:33,680
Speaker 1: Neil is gone, you went to Vandy, James Gilbert has

960
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:36,160
Speaker 1: gone a running back. Their defense should be pretty good.

961
00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:38,000
Speaker 1: I think they're going to be you know, a lot

962
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:39,640
Speaker 1: of experience. I think they're going to be a pretty

963
00:41:39,640 --> 00:41:42,080
Speaker 1: improved unit. I'll look at the under verse Indiana, but

964
00:41:42,120 --> 00:41:45,200
Speaker 1: their offense is going to struggle. And then Central Michigan,

965
00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 1: you know, Jim McLain you mentioned is in there. They

966
00:41:47,160 --> 00:41:49,920
Speaker 1: were one and eleven last year. Quinton Dormandy should be

967
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:53,040
Speaker 1: the quarterback. He was previously at Tennessee, lost his job

968
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:55,880
Speaker 1: to the starter there now, then was at Houston, lost

969
00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:57,520
Speaker 1: his job at the starter there now now he's going

970
00:41:57,560 --> 00:41:59,799
Speaker 1: to go to Central Michigan. But I mean, look, they

971
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:01,879
Speaker 1: have a great kicker. That's about all I can say

972
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:04,440
Speaker 1: about Central Michigan. They lost two first team All MAC

973
00:42:04,560 --> 00:42:06,920
Speaker 1: corners and they were one and eleven last year. So

974
00:42:07,080 --> 00:42:08,560
Speaker 1: they're both in the NFL. By the way, it's all

975
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:10,320
Speaker 1: you need to know. Charlie Fry, by the way, is

976
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:12,959
Speaker 1: the offensive coordinator if you remember him, the former actor

977
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:15,120
Speaker 1: and quarterback. But there's some bad teams in the MAC

978
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 1: this year. You know, I look at Bowling Green under

979
00:42:17,239 --> 00:42:20,680
Speaker 1: Ohio over, but I prefer Ohio just to win the conference.

980
00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:24,880
Speaker 1: You actually look at Toledo over with that schedule, and

981
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:26,960
Speaker 1: I think you can't go wrong going with some of

982
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:29,680
Speaker 1: these other bad teams under. But would you agree Ohio

983
00:42:29,719 --> 00:42:31,280
Speaker 1: wins and I'm going to say they beat Toledo.

984
00:42:31,600 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 2: Frank Solich to capture his first ever MAC title. After

985
00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:37,960
Speaker 2: being two times Big twelve Coach of the Year, he

986
00:42:38,000 --> 00:42:39,719
Speaker 2: still has not won a MAC title. I think that

987
00:42:39,760 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 2: gets done this year over Toledo.

988
00:42:41,400 --> 00:42:44,480
Speaker 1: The MAC Conference title games have played since nineteen ninety seven,

989
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:46,759
Speaker 1: Ohio has never won one their zero to four So

990
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:49,239
Speaker 1: a lot more MAX during the year. Well, our first

991
00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:52,239
Speaker 1: Wednesday night and Tuesday night action in early November. Can't

992
00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:55,760
Speaker 1: wait for that. So let's move on to the Mountain West.

993
00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 1: We'll save the fund Belt for last, which is your

994
00:42:57,640 --> 00:43:02,280
Speaker 1: favorite conference this year. So let's start in. Well, Boise's

995
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:04,280
Speaker 1: going for the fourth straight division title in the Mountains,

996
00:43:04,280 --> 00:43:06,480
Speaker 1: so let's start in the Mountain Division. Big story with

997
00:43:06,560 --> 00:43:09,440
Speaker 1: Boise is they're the clear favorite to win the conference,

998
00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:12,520
Speaker 1: which is a down year. I think overall they're minus

999
00:43:12,520 --> 00:43:15,600
Speaker 1: one of five to win the conference. That's even with

1000
00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:19,799
Speaker 1: replacing their star quarterback Rippin and they lost their star

1001
00:43:19,920 --> 00:43:22,600
Speaker 1: running back, I was Andrew Madison. They do have all

1002
00:43:22,680 --> 00:43:24,759
Speaker 1: five starters back on the offensive line. This is the

1003
00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:29,280
Speaker 1: best roster in the conference. Potential challengers in the division.

1004
00:43:29,840 --> 00:43:33,120
Speaker 1: I mean, you have to reach here, but Utah State.

1005
00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:35,080
Speaker 1: They have Gary Anderson back as their head coach. They

1006
00:43:35,080 --> 00:43:38,000
Speaker 1: have a solid quarterback with love under center, but they

1007
00:43:38,080 --> 00:43:40,960
Speaker 1: just lost so much, especially on offense. The only one

1008
00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:42,400
Speaker 1: of their starter coming back on offense. They do have

1009
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:45,760
Speaker 1: sick linebackers, but I just can't see Utah State challenging

1010
00:43:45,800 --> 00:43:50,040
Speaker 1: Boise Wyoming. You know, they found their quarterback potentially in Chambers,

1011
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:52,960
Speaker 1: but this is a team that couldn't pass the ball

1012
00:43:53,000 --> 00:43:54,600
Speaker 1: last year. They were the worst passing offense in the

1013
00:43:54,600 --> 00:43:56,239
Speaker 1: country if you just look at non option teams, and

1014
00:43:56,239 --> 00:43:57,719
Speaker 1: they lost all their running backs. They just did it

1015
00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:01,040
Speaker 1: on the ground and Chambers gave them some mojo with

1016
00:44:01,080 --> 00:44:03,560
Speaker 1: his legs. But you know, Nico Evans is gone, you know,

1017
00:44:03,600 --> 00:44:06,520
Speaker 1: so I think that their defense will be Okay, they

1018
00:44:06,560 --> 00:44:09,520
Speaker 1: have a solid kicker and the altitude advantage, but their

1019
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:11,080
Speaker 1: wind totals is spot on a five and a half.

1020
00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:13,560
Speaker 1: I think I don't think they can challenge Boise. Air

1021
00:44:13,600 --> 00:44:16,680
Speaker 1: Force potentially is interesting. I think this team who brings

1022
00:44:16,719 --> 00:44:18,799
Speaker 1: a ton back is due for some positive regression. They

1023
00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:21,160
Speaker 1: lost some tough games last year. They're plus nine hundred

1024
00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:22,880
Speaker 1: to win the conference. The only team I really considered,

1025
00:44:22,920 --> 00:44:24,839
Speaker 1: but they do go to Bois. I don't think I'll

1026
00:44:24,840 --> 00:44:27,040
Speaker 1: play their win total which is eight. You make it

1027
00:44:27,080 --> 00:44:29,560
Speaker 1: about seven point four, But I think this is a

1028
00:44:29,560 --> 00:44:31,720
Speaker 1: team I want to play on. And then New Mexico

1029
00:44:31,800 --> 00:44:34,280
Speaker 1: and Colorado State. You love the under in New Mexico.

1030
00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:36,880
Speaker 1: Let you talk to that Colorido State. They're the bottom

1031
00:44:37,040 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 1: of the mountain. They have no shot of competing with Boise.

1032
00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:42,759
Speaker 1: So is this just Boise is like Clemson here and

1033
00:44:42,800 --> 00:44:45,279
Speaker 1: there's no one that can potentially run with them in

1034
00:44:45,320 --> 00:44:45,880
Speaker 1: this division?

1035
00:44:46,480 --> 00:44:48,960
Speaker 2: Yeah? I will, I will say save something for air

1036
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:51,000
Speaker 2: Force here, but Bois might as want five is the

1037
00:44:51,040 --> 00:44:53,000
Speaker 2: only way to go. But I took New Mexico under

1038
00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:56,520
Speaker 2: five new coordinators for a converted spread offense that actually

1039
00:44:56,600 --> 00:44:59,480
Speaker 2: got slower in pace of play. So they went from

1040
00:44:59,760 --> 00:45:02,960
Speaker 2: a triple option to a spread, and it actually gets

1041
00:45:03,000 --> 00:45:04,880
Speaker 2: slower and pace to play. They're one of the slowest

1042
00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:08,000
Speaker 2: offenses in the nation. Their top six tacklers are off

1043
00:45:08,000 --> 00:45:11,759
Speaker 2: the defense. Jucos have come in for Bob Davy sort

1044
00:45:11,800 --> 00:45:14,640
Speaker 2: of a last ditch effort in this campaign that he's

1045
00:45:14,680 --> 00:45:17,799
Speaker 2: had in Albuquerque that has just been pretty tremendous, not

1046
00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:20,520
Speaker 2: just on the field but off the field. I can't

1047
00:45:20,520 --> 00:45:23,919
Speaker 2: believe he hasn't been fired yet. The Lobos ISOPPP rating

1048
00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:27,200
Speaker 2: has regressed the last three years second to one hundred

1049
00:45:27,320 --> 00:45:30,920
Speaker 2: and eleventh in a span of just two seasons, twenty

1050
00:45:30,920 --> 00:45:35,120
Speaker 2: four months second to one hundred and eleventh in ISOPPP.

1051
00:45:35,400 --> 00:45:38,520
Speaker 2: So whatever they're doing in offense, they're making it worse.

1052
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:41,319
Speaker 2: I mean, they're not doing anything to it. I don't

1053
00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:43,120
Speaker 2: know how they get to five wins. I think I've

1054
00:45:43,120 --> 00:45:46,319
Speaker 2: got them at three point five, you know so, I mean,

1055
00:45:46,320 --> 00:45:48,200
Speaker 2: if you look at their schedule, there's just I don't

1056
00:45:48,200 --> 00:45:50,000
Speaker 2: know where these games are going to come from, especially

1057
00:45:50,239 --> 00:45:52,640
Speaker 2: since I like Liberty. They go out to Liberty, so

1058
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 2: I don't expect that to be a win. I want

1059
00:45:56,719 --> 00:45:58,920
Speaker 2: to circle back on the Air Force one because you

1060
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:01,520
Speaker 2: and I kind of talked about this pod. Uh. You know,

1061
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:03,680
Speaker 2: I like the Air Force team. I mean they have

1062
00:46:03,719 --> 00:46:07,520
Speaker 2: the best defenders returning to face a rush defense. Their

1063
00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:09,879
Speaker 2: rush defense was twentieth N S and P plus last year,

1064
00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:11,799
Speaker 2: and they get a lot of those guys back, and

1065
00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:16,279
Speaker 2: their schedule is just full of rush first offenses. Either

1066
00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:18,560
Speaker 2: Isaiah Sanders or Donald Hammon the third to the lead

1067
00:46:18,600 --> 00:46:20,680
Speaker 2: in this past weekend scrimmage, So both are gonna play.

1068
00:46:20,680 --> 00:46:22,240
Speaker 2: I think both are gonna be put in by Calavium.

1069
00:46:22,320 --> 00:46:24,279
Speaker 2: But I mean they just have a schedule that sets

1070
00:46:24,360 --> 00:46:26,359
Speaker 2: up to where if you have that can defend the run,

1071
00:46:26,680 --> 00:46:28,920
Speaker 2: they're dangerous. Now do I think they could be boising? No,

1072
00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 2: But I at least the Air Force deserves the department.

1073
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:32,000
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1074
00:46:32,080 --> 00:46:32,279
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1075
00:46:32,360 --> 00:46:34,760
Speaker 1: New Mexico is just I mean, this is a disaster.

1076
00:46:34,800 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 1: When I was reading about them, you know, to start

1077
00:46:37,080 --> 00:46:39,080
Speaker 1: off my summer, I was just assuming Bob David wasn't

1078
00:46:39,080 --> 00:46:41,879
Speaker 1: there any longer, but he is new coordinators. They lost

1079
00:46:42,000 --> 00:46:43,759
Speaker 1: they have a new defensive coordinator, lost everyone on D

1080
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:45,440
Speaker 1: and there are only two good players that were going

1081
00:46:45,440 --> 00:46:47,040
Speaker 1: on D with their corners last year. They lost both

1082
00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:49,120
Speaker 1: of them. They might even be an NFL rosters but

1083
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:51,520
Speaker 1: they have new offensive coordinator. They're gonna run a mix

1084
00:46:51,640 --> 00:46:53,799
Speaker 1: of spread and the option. So last year they were

1085
00:46:53,800 --> 00:46:56,279
Speaker 1: down to that third quarterback, so they were doing they

1086
00:46:56,280 --> 00:46:58,000
Speaker 1: were running. They try to run the spread, but they're

1087
00:46:58,000 --> 00:46:59,600
Speaker 1: gonna Yeah, they got a ton of Juco's in so

1088
00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:01,480
Speaker 1: that there I gets there's some variants there. But this

1089
00:47:01,520 --> 00:47:04,439
Speaker 1: team could its high quit factor to this team could

1090
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:05,920
Speaker 1: quit and it could go south. I agree with him

1091
00:47:05,920 --> 00:47:08,319
Speaker 1: the under and then the team we did mention Colorado State,

1092
00:47:08,680 --> 00:47:13,920
Speaker 1: you know, intriguing team for maybe some positive regression. You know,

1093
00:47:13,960 --> 00:47:16,160
Speaker 1: they have Colin Hill, Colin with two l's back at

1094
00:47:16,239 --> 00:47:18,759
Speaker 1: quarterback and healthy. I think they should improve a little

1095
00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:21,040
Speaker 1: bit on defensive special teams are a little more experienced,

1096
00:47:21,239 --> 00:47:23,080
Speaker 1: and they deal with a lot of injuries last year.

1097
00:47:23,440 --> 00:47:25,000
Speaker 1: But it's tough to find a lot of wins on

1098
00:47:25,040 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 1: their schedule in the West Division. So we both agree

1099
00:47:28,680 --> 00:47:30,440
Speaker 1: our boys is going to win the Mountain. Who's going

1100
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:33,640
Speaker 1: to play West? Well, since they split these divisions up

1101
00:47:33,640 --> 00:47:35,680
Speaker 1: in the mount West from the Mountainum West, it's either

1102
00:47:35,719 --> 00:47:38,959
Speaker 1: been Fresno or San Diego State all six years, and

1103
00:47:39,160 --> 00:47:42,680
Speaker 1: Fresno this year is I think a mess. You know,

1104
00:47:43,320 --> 00:47:46,279
Speaker 1: you make their win total eight and a half. Their

1105
00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:49,440
Speaker 1: win totals eight two Coo transfer quarterback Arena Who's going

1106
00:47:49,520 --> 00:47:52,760
Speaker 1: to start for them? But they lost a ton, especially

1107
00:47:52,800 --> 00:47:54,799
Speaker 1: on defense. Jeff Allison is a huge loss. They also

1108
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:57,320
Speaker 1: have a tough schedule. They had buys early. They recently

1109
00:47:57,400 --> 00:48:00,120
Speaker 1: lost Jordan Mims, one of their top two backs for

1110
00:48:00,160 --> 00:48:02,799
Speaker 1: the year, and then their other back, Ronnie Rivers, he

1111
00:48:02,800 --> 00:48:04,920
Speaker 1: has a hamstring issue. I think this could be a

1112
00:48:05,000 --> 00:48:07,640
Speaker 1: rough year for Fresno. I'm all about the under here.

1113
00:48:07,880 --> 00:48:11,400
Speaker 1: I don't trust them. The other interesting team Hawaii with

1114
00:48:11,440 --> 00:48:13,960
Speaker 1: Cole McDonald and that run and shoot win total five

1115
00:48:13,960 --> 00:48:16,000
Speaker 1: and a half, you make it five point three. They

1116
00:48:16,040 --> 00:48:17,760
Speaker 1: are one of the most experienced teams in the country.

1117
00:48:17,760 --> 00:48:20,920
Speaker 1: But the question is does that matter with that awful defense?

1118
00:48:21,440 --> 00:48:24,239
Speaker 1: And in San Diego State we're gonna disagree on I

1119
00:48:24,280 --> 00:48:27,000
Speaker 1: think because I'm thinking about playing them to win the conference.

1120
00:48:27,520 --> 00:48:30,479
Speaker 1: Ryan agnewback, He's going to start a quarterback. They're gonna

1121
00:48:30,560 --> 00:48:33,759
Speaker 1: run this spread attack. Juwan Washington's back of running backs,

1122
00:48:33,760 --> 00:48:36,160
Speaker 1: so they're still gonna run the ball. They do return

1123
00:48:36,200 --> 00:48:38,840
Speaker 1: a lot. So before we get to the bottom feeders,

1124
00:48:39,239 --> 00:48:45,440
Speaker 1: let's start with those three Fresno San Diego State and Hawaii.

1125
00:48:46,000 --> 00:48:48,359
Speaker 1: You are highest on Hawaii here and think Hawaii could

1126
00:48:48,360 --> 00:48:49,120
Speaker 1: actually meet Boise.

1127
00:48:50,680 --> 00:48:51,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's just go right to the top.

1128
00:48:52,040 --> 00:48:52,239
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1129
00:48:52,239 --> 00:48:54,440
Speaker 2: I do have a Hawaii twenty five to one ticket

1130
00:48:54,480 --> 00:48:56,239
Speaker 2: on me, so you know, I do think Hawaii's the

1131
00:48:56,239 --> 00:48:58,560
Speaker 2: one that's gonna face Boise. Let's just say, you know,

1132
00:48:58,640 --> 00:49:02,320
Speaker 2: I fascinated with the run and shoot. When Cole McDonald

1133
00:49:02,440 --> 00:49:04,680
Speaker 2: was healthy, that was the talk of college football. Last year.

1134
00:49:04,800 --> 00:49:06,520
Speaker 2: They started off hot, I think six and one, and

1135
00:49:06,600 --> 00:49:08,960
Speaker 2: after that injury happened, things didn't play out as well.

1136
00:49:08,960 --> 00:49:10,960
Speaker 2: But he is healthy this year. You know, the Rainbow

1137
00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:13,759
Speaker 2: Warriors or ninth and overall returning production, but that does

1138
00:49:13,760 --> 00:49:15,760
Speaker 2: include a defense. It was one hundred and second against

1139
00:49:15,840 --> 00:49:19,200
Speaker 2: explosiveness and ninety eighth and success rate and just one

1140
00:49:19,320 --> 00:49:23,200
Speaker 2: hundred and thirteenth in havoc. They're essentially a crossing guard

1141
00:49:23,320 --> 00:49:26,240
Speaker 2: that's always got his hand waving for you to cross

1142
00:49:26,280 --> 00:49:29,480
Speaker 2: the street. I mean, their defense is is pretty bad,

1143
00:49:29,520 --> 00:49:31,680
Speaker 2: but I am I do like Cole McDonald. And this

1144
00:49:31,840 --> 00:49:34,880
Speaker 2: is the West Division of the Mountain West, which means

1145
00:49:35,120 --> 00:49:39,120
Speaker 2: it's defense optional. It's Mountain defense optional division. So I

1146
00:49:39,160 --> 00:49:42,439
Speaker 2: do like Hawaii just because the schedule. Also, they will

1147
00:49:42,520 --> 00:49:46,319
Speaker 2: play to only two of their final seven games will

1148
00:49:46,320 --> 00:49:48,200
Speaker 2: be on the road, so you have to go to

1149
00:49:48,239 --> 00:49:50,360
Speaker 2: Hawaii and beat Hawaii for the remains of season, and

1150
00:49:50,360 --> 00:49:53,239
Speaker 2: a lot of conference play happens out there. So I'm

1151
00:49:53,239 --> 00:49:55,600
Speaker 2: pretty excited, you know, just from a scheduling standpoint, And

1152
00:49:55,640 --> 00:49:58,880
Speaker 2: if Cole McDonald can stay healthy, they have plenty of

1153
00:49:59,080 --> 00:50:01,879
Speaker 2: plenty of return. Is it's the offensive line. They should

1154
00:50:02,160 --> 00:50:03,960
Speaker 2: keep people off him as long as he makes good

1155
00:50:03,960 --> 00:50:05,560
Speaker 2: decision in space with the run and shoot.

1156
00:50:05,719 --> 00:50:08,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, the problem he's not a nosebleed. That's the problem

1157
00:50:08,400 --> 00:50:09,759
Speaker 1: I have with a lie. And I guess there's no

1158
00:50:09,760 --> 00:50:10,799
Speaker 1: where they can go but up.

1159
00:50:10,920 --> 00:50:12,520
Speaker 2: But if they could put it on you just as

1160
00:50:12,560 --> 00:50:14,920
Speaker 2: fast as you could put it on them and their

1161
00:50:14,960 --> 00:50:15,680
Speaker 2: conditioning down.

1162
00:50:15,680 --> 00:50:17,640
Speaker 1: That's fair. But why so why so low? And stand well?

1163
00:50:17,640 --> 00:50:19,560
Speaker 1: Fresno lost a ton, right would you just agree with that?

1164
00:50:19,560 --> 00:50:22,080
Speaker 2: But yeah, yeah, yeah, let me make it clear to everybody.

1165
00:50:22,120 --> 00:50:24,520
Speaker 2: I have it at five when totals the eight biggest

1166
00:50:24,600 --> 00:50:28,200
Speaker 2: drop in my off season PRS, I took twelve points

1167
00:50:28,400 --> 00:50:32,120
Speaker 2: off Fresno. That is monstrous. They took a huge whack

1168
00:50:32,200 --> 00:50:34,879
Speaker 2: in returning production. The schedule starts off with at USC

1169
00:50:35,120 --> 00:50:38,040
Speaker 2: followed up by hosting Minnesota. You know, Tedford didn't have

1170
00:50:38,160 --> 00:50:39,920
Speaker 2: I mean, he was able to turn things around, but

1171
00:50:39,960 --> 00:50:42,239
Speaker 2: let's talk about the players that he had before. Well,

1172
00:50:42,239 --> 00:50:43,759
Speaker 2: we'll see how far they regress and see how good

1173
00:50:43,800 --> 00:50:45,000
Speaker 2: they are in their first couple of games. I mean,

1174
00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:47,560
Speaker 2: you and I are not out itching to buy USC

1175
00:50:47,719 --> 00:50:50,920
Speaker 2: in week one, you know, so we'll see what Fresno's got.

1176
00:50:50,920 --> 00:50:53,239
Speaker 2: I mean, that may be a sneaky play, but I

1177
00:50:53,320 --> 00:50:56,000
Speaker 2: just can't get behind Clay Hilton. So yeah, I think

1178
00:50:56,000 --> 00:50:57,720
Speaker 2: you're right about that. But then I think the disagreement

1179
00:50:57,680 --> 00:51:00,120
Speaker 2: between you and me comes with San Diego State. I

1180
00:51:00,120 --> 00:51:02,840
Speaker 2: mean this whole Rocky Long, we're moving to the spread,

1181
00:51:02,920 --> 00:51:04,839
Speaker 2: but we plan on running just as much. They were

1182
00:51:04,840 --> 00:51:07,239
Speaker 2: eleventh and standard downs run rate. They were thirtieth and

1183
00:51:07,320 --> 00:51:09,680
Speaker 2: passing downs run rate, but they're moving to the spread.

1184
00:51:10,040 --> 00:51:13,440
Speaker 2: Really a little bit of confusion to me. Ryan Agne

1185
00:51:13,480 --> 00:51:15,520
Speaker 2: is going to start a quarterback and Juwan Washington's going

1186
00:51:15,560 --> 00:51:17,920
Speaker 2: to be a running back. That's well known, but every

1187
00:51:17,920 --> 00:51:22,200
Speaker 2: other starting position is up for grabs. Rocky Long came

1188
00:51:22,200 --> 00:51:24,279
Speaker 2: out after the scrimmage the other day and said, I

1189
00:51:24,360 --> 00:51:26,840
Speaker 2: have ten to twelve guys looking to win spots on

1190
00:51:26,880 --> 00:51:30,319
Speaker 2: the offensive line ten to twelve guys. If you listen

1191
00:51:30,360 --> 00:51:32,279
Speaker 2: to this podcast and you have any eligibility and you're

1192
00:51:32,320 --> 00:51:34,120
Speaker 2: around the San Diego area, you might want to go

1193
00:51:34,160 --> 00:51:36,439
Speaker 2: down if you're way two ninety or more. The road

1194
00:51:36,440 --> 00:51:40,440
Speaker 2: slate includes the Mexico State, Colorado State, San Jose State, UNLV. So,

1195
00:51:40,480 --> 00:51:44,120
Speaker 2: I mean it's a really good favorable road conference slate.

1196
00:51:44,560 --> 00:51:46,399
Speaker 2: All those teams are were checked outside the top one

1197
00:51:46,440 --> 00:51:49,840
Speaker 2: hundred into the spread. A lot of positions on offense

1198
00:51:49,880 --> 00:51:52,000
Speaker 2: not locked down. The defense is going to be solid.

1199
00:51:52,040 --> 00:51:53,760
Speaker 2: You and I always agree on that, but this offense

1200
00:51:53,800 --> 00:51:56,160
Speaker 2: thing is just my head spin a little bit about

1201
00:51:56,160 --> 00:51:57,319
Speaker 2: what's going on that side of the ball.

1202
00:51:57,760 --> 00:52:00,960
Speaker 1: That's fair. We'll be debating more about that. The teams

1203
00:52:00,960 --> 00:52:04,680
Speaker 1: that we don't think have a shot to win it. Nevada. Look,

1204
00:52:05,000 --> 00:52:08,000
Speaker 1: some people are higher on Nevada. Preston. You know, the

1205
00:52:08,080 --> 00:52:10,560
Speaker 1: Christian Solana was their quarterback who got hurt and he's

1206
00:52:10,600 --> 00:52:13,759
Speaker 1: out till October. And they have Malik Henry for you

1207
00:52:13,840 --> 00:52:16,799
Speaker 1: last Chance U fans, but he's been hurt. You know.

1208
00:52:16,880 --> 00:52:19,080
Speaker 1: It could be redshirt freshman Carson Strong. It looks like

1209
00:52:19,080 --> 00:52:20,800
Speaker 1: he's going to be the starter A lot of questions

1210
00:52:20,840 --> 00:52:23,480
Speaker 1: at quarterback. They lost a ton, including on defense. Are

1211
00:52:23,520 --> 00:52:25,520
Speaker 1: three three five? They lost Malak Reid. It was just

1212
00:52:25,560 --> 00:52:28,400
Speaker 1: an you know, do everything defender. So I think Nevada

1213
00:52:28,440 --> 00:52:30,719
Speaker 1: is going to struggle. Their win total is six and

1214
00:52:30,760 --> 00:52:32,560
Speaker 1: you know u n LV, I think is a mess

1215
00:52:32,600 --> 00:52:34,920
Speaker 1: and think it could go south quick. HARMANI Rodgers is

1216
00:52:34,920 --> 00:52:37,920
Speaker 1: back at quarterback, but they did lose running back Lexendon Thomas.

1217
00:52:38,000 --> 00:52:40,799
Speaker 1: There's not much to like about UNLV. You made the

1218
00:52:40,800 --> 00:52:43,040
Speaker 1: wind Jittal is four, you make it three point one.

1219
00:52:43,640 --> 00:52:46,719
Speaker 1: And then San Jose State you have Josh Love quarterback.

1220
00:52:46,760 --> 00:52:48,279
Speaker 1: I think he has some promise. By the way, there's

1221
00:52:48,280 --> 00:52:51,399
Speaker 1: two Loves a quarterback in the Mountain West, Jordan Love

1222
00:52:51,440 --> 00:52:56,080
Speaker 1: for Utah State who went to Liberty High School. But Santas,

1223
00:52:56,080 --> 00:52:57,560
Speaker 1: they say, can they do anything on the ground? One

1224
00:52:57,600 --> 00:52:59,759
Speaker 1: of the status rushing attacks I've ever seen. Last year,

1225
00:53:00,000 --> 00:53:02,040
Speaker 1: they are fairly experienced. Maybe they get a little better,

1226
00:53:02,040 --> 00:53:03,279
Speaker 1: but they're wind totals two and a half, you make

1227
00:53:03,320 --> 00:53:05,680
Speaker 1: it two point seven. Who cares? Santas they state it's irrelevant,

1228
00:53:05,719 --> 00:53:09,160
Speaker 1: but you're low on UNLB. But gaded that you missed

1229
00:53:09,160 --> 00:53:11,640
Speaker 1: a total and thought the Nevada.

1230
00:53:11,200 --> 00:53:13,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know v is an underplay. Even at four,

1231
00:53:13,760 --> 00:53:15,920
Speaker 2: it's still an underplay. The problem is I was in

1232
00:53:15,960 --> 00:53:18,480
Speaker 2: Las Vegas when I believe the Golden Nugget was the

1233
00:53:18,480 --> 00:53:20,399
Speaker 2: first to put out wind totals, and they put out

1234
00:53:20,400 --> 00:53:23,040
Speaker 2: a five, and I didn't get there fast enough before

1235
00:53:23,200 --> 00:53:25,000
Speaker 2: that thing got moved down to four and a half

1236
00:53:25,000 --> 00:53:27,920
Speaker 2: at out of four. So, as a gambler in the past,

1237
00:53:27,960 --> 00:53:30,360
Speaker 2: when I see a number and I can't get to

1238
00:53:30,440 --> 00:53:32,080
Speaker 2: it fast enough and I can't get the best of

1239
00:53:32,080 --> 00:53:34,680
Speaker 2: the number, I pause and I hesitate into buying a

1240
00:53:34,680 --> 00:53:36,479
Speaker 2: worsen for It's the same thing with juice. I usually

1241
00:53:36,480 --> 00:53:38,920
Speaker 2: will wait around on totals until I get the correct

1242
00:53:38,960 --> 00:53:40,680
Speaker 2: juice that I think that I can get, But with

1243
00:53:40,760 --> 00:53:42,239
Speaker 2: the five, I just want to get it. So now

1244
00:53:42,239 --> 00:53:45,040
Speaker 2: I'm just being bullheaded about a un l V under

1245
00:53:45,080 --> 00:53:47,799
Speaker 2: which should be played at under four. You know San

1246
00:53:47,880 --> 00:53:50,319
Speaker 2: Jose State, Hey, they're on Arkansas schedule. You never know,

1247
00:53:50,440 --> 00:53:52,000
Speaker 2: could be an amazing day when they fly out to

1248
00:53:52,000 --> 00:53:56,360
Speaker 2: Fay Nevada. I understand. You know, some people think Nevada

1249
00:53:56,400 --> 00:53:59,080
Speaker 2: is going to be pretty good. But maliek Henry from

1250
00:53:59,120 --> 00:54:00,520
Speaker 2: Last Chance of You, he didn't even play in the

1251
00:54:00,600 --> 00:54:03,240
Speaker 2: latest scrimmage. He's he's got a torn up hands to hamstring.

1252
00:54:03,960 --> 00:54:07,600
Speaker 2: Carson Strong elevated his game, Calvin really like we did there.

1253
00:54:07,600 --> 00:54:09,320
Speaker 2: It looks like Carson Strong is going to be the starter.

1254
00:54:09,440 --> 00:54:12,239
Speaker 2: But you know, the Wolfpac's biggest losses are in the secondary,

1255
00:54:12,280 --> 00:54:14,840
Speaker 2: and they open up their season with Purdue and Oregon.

1256
00:54:14,880 --> 00:54:16,520
Speaker 2: If you don't think Justin Herbert ain't gonna pick the

1257
00:54:16,520 --> 00:54:19,960
Speaker 2: Wolfpack apart. You know, three of their eight conference opponents

1258
00:54:20,200 --> 00:54:22,640
Speaker 2: are coming off of a bye week, so you're gonna

1259
00:54:22,680 --> 00:54:25,759
Speaker 2: get three you know, fresh teams, you know in your

1260
00:54:25,760 --> 00:54:28,680
Speaker 2: conference play, which is not a good thing. So I

1261
00:54:28,680 --> 00:54:31,120
Speaker 2: think the sixth total is spot on for the wolf Pack.

1262
00:54:31,160 --> 00:54:33,800
Speaker 2: I don't have any plans for them to win the West.

1263
00:54:34,400 --> 00:54:37,360
Speaker 2: Just me and my crazy run and shoot with the

1264
00:54:37,400 --> 00:54:39,799
Speaker 2: boys on the island. They're having a bunch of home

1265
00:54:39,800 --> 00:54:40,920
Speaker 2: games in November and October.

1266
00:54:41,000 --> 00:54:43,680
Speaker 1: Is what I like as a fade. We love the

1267
00:54:43,800 --> 00:54:46,000
Speaker 1: under and we think that that is going to either

1268
00:54:46,040 --> 00:54:49,279
Speaker 1: open that's going to open up the West for you know,

1269
00:54:49,360 --> 00:54:52,600
Speaker 1: someone to get to the championship to play presumably Boise,

1270
00:54:52,960 --> 00:54:54,480
Speaker 1: and then we just disagree on which team we think

1271
00:54:54,560 --> 00:54:55,640
Speaker 1: is going to get there. I think it be San

1272
00:54:55,640 --> 00:54:58,319
Speaker 1: Diego State. You think it's going to be Hawaii. So

1273
00:54:58,360 --> 00:55:00,320
Speaker 1: that's probably why I'll go Sanego State to win the

1274
00:55:00,320 --> 00:55:03,319
Speaker 1: conference and you'll go Hawaii. All right, So let's move

1275
00:55:03,360 --> 00:55:07,640
Speaker 1: on and finish up with the fun belt. And this

1276
00:55:07,800 --> 00:55:12,120
Speaker 1: is collins favorite conference this year. And if you haven't

1277
00:55:12,360 --> 00:55:15,080
Speaker 1: had enough hot takes, you're gonna get some here as

1278
00:55:15,080 --> 00:55:18,080
Speaker 1: a fun belt. But let's start in the app States,

1279
00:55:18,120 --> 00:55:20,920
Speaker 1: the clear favorite conference. By the way, Zach Thomas is

1280
00:55:20,920 --> 00:55:23,480
Speaker 1: back at quarterback. They bring everybody back. I think they

1281
00:55:23,480 --> 00:55:26,520
Speaker 1: bring twenty starters back. They're minus one twenty to win

1282
00:55:26,560 --> 00:55:30,360
Speaker 1: the conference. Let's start in the East with the favorites,

1283
00:55:30,520 --> 00:55:32,839
Speaker 1: three favorites. This should be a three team race. App

1284
00:55:32,880 --> 00:55:35,480
Speaker 1: State's clearly the favorite. You know, win total nine, you

1285
00:55:35,560 --> 00:55:39,440
Speaker 1: make it right around ninety seven. Their two primary challengers

1286
00:55:39,480 --> 00:55:42,759
Speaker 1: are Troy and Georgia Southern. Troy, which is plus five

1287
00:55:42,840 --> 00:55:45,360
Speaker 1: hundred to win the conference. They have the benefit of

1288
00:55:45,360 --> 00:55:49,360
Speaker 1: hosting both Georgia Southern and app State. They have running

1289
00:55:49,360 --> 00:55:51,680
Speaker 1: back B. J. Smiths's a stud and then Georgia Southern,

1290
00:55:51,960 --> 00:55:54,960
Speaker 1: you know, the triple option team. Shaywartz is back at quarterback.

1291
00:55:55,200 --> 00:55:58,359
Speaker 1: Problemise they have a brutal road schedule. Tell me about

1292
00:55:58,360 --> 00:56:01,319
Speaker 1: what your thoughts on the top the East and the

1293
00:56:01,360 --> 00:56:03,440
Speaker 1: fun belt Sharewartz.

1294
00:56:03,040 --> 00:56:04,960
Speaker 2: Is back at quarterback. Huh. They had a little insaid

1295
00:56:04,960 --> 00:56:07,239
Speaker 2: it with some bird shit on his windshield. They they

1296
00:56:07,239 --> 00:56:10,120
Speaker 2: thought it was a banned subse should we call it

1297
00:56:10,160 --> 00:56:14,040
Speaker 2: a band subst So you know, Shywartz is back for

1298
00:56:14,080 --> 00:56:16,319
Speaker 2: Georgia Southern. But you know they had the largest second

1299
00:56:16,400 --> 00:56:19,200
Speaker 2: order win total drop for me in this conference at

1300
00:56:19,200 --> 00:56:21,080
Speaker 2: minus two point one, so they should have had more

1301
00:56:21,120 --> 00:56:23,239
Speaker 2: like eight wins instead of ten last year. You know,

1302
00:56:23,239 --> 00:56:26,520
Speaker 2: they have no experience at center, left tackle whatsoever. That

1303
00:56:26,560 --> 00:56:28,080
Speaker 2: could be a problem for a team that runs a

1304
00:56:28,080 --> 00:56:30,919
Speaker 2: triple option, so they could be more of a team

1305
00:56:30,960 --> 00:56:33,520
Speaker 2: that pitches than a quarterback keeper or fullback dive because

1306
00:56:33,520 --> 00:56:35,680
Speaker 2: there's some pieces of the line that they're missing. Most

1307
00:56:35,719 --> 00:56:37,279
Speaker 2: of the back seven returns from a team that was

1308
00:56:37,320 --> 00:56:39,759
Speaker 2: fit against passing downs explosives. So that's a good thing

1309
00:56:39,800 --> 00:56:42,479
Speaker 2: for Georgia Southern's defense. You're not going to beat them deep,

1310
00:56:42,520 --> 00:56:44,719
Speaker 2: but I don't think it's going to be as explosive

1311
00:56:44,800 --> 00:56:47,279
Speaker 2: I should say explosive of a triple option offense, but

1312
00:56:47,560 --> 00:56:49,120
Speaker 2: at least it shouldn't be as efficient as it was

1313
00:56:49,200 --> 00:56:52,239
Speaker 2: year before because of the offensive line play Troy. I

1314
00:56:52,280 --> 00:56:54,600
Speaker 2: do like Troy this year forty first in returning production.

1315
00:56:55,200 --> 00:56:57,480
Speaker 2: They'll be fine with Caleb Barker. I know Sawyer Smith

1316
00:56:57,520 --> 00:57:01,239
Speaker 2: transferred up to Kentucky. He may when the job. I

1317
00:57:01,280 --> 00:57:03,440
Speaker 2: haven't checked the news today, but you know he departs

1318
00:57:03,480 --> 00:57:05,879
Speaker 2: to Kentucky. I'll get some playing time up there. Their

1319
00:57:05,920 --> 00:57:08,320
Speaker 2: top or three receivers are gone, which you know counts

1320
00:57:08,680 --> 00:57:10,759
Speaker 2: for over fifty five percent of the target. So I

1321
00:57:10,800 --> 00:57:13,319
Speaker 2: think Chip Lindsay was a great hire. He's definitely good

1322
00:57:13,320 --> 00:57:17,200
Speaker 2: for the area. The sun Belt runs through Troy, Alabama.

1323
00:57:17,240 --> 00:57:21,120
Speaker 2: This year, Arkansas State comes, Georgia Southern comes, Appalachian State comes.

1324
00:57:21,160 --> 00:57:24,960
Speaker 2: So Troy holds the keys to this, to this conference

1325
00:57:25,280 --> 00:57:27,040
Speaker 2: and app State. I just don't know what it is.

1326
00:57:27,160 --> 00:57:30,760
Speaker 2: I'm not on the app State trained. They return everybody.

1327
00:57:30,800 --> 00:57:33,640
Speaker 2: I mean, they returned, you know, the best quarterback in

1328
00:57:33,720 --> 00:57:37,080
Speaker 2: the conference in their twenty second returning production, their fifteenth

1329
00:57:37,080 --> 00:57:39,720
Speaker 2: in offensive explosiveness. I love that stuff, right, I mean

1330
00:57:40,440 --> 00:57:42,960
Speaker 2: the Mountaineers of you know, they've just been the poster

1331
00:57:43,080 --> 00:57:44,800
Speaker 2: child for the things that we love on this podcast.

1332
00:57:44,800 --> 00:57:47,600
Speaker 2: To make his money, and they hired an Eli Drinkwitz

1333
00:57:47,640 --> 00:57:50,320
Speaker 2: from n c State. He was the offensive coordinator there

1334
00:57:50,840 --> 00:57:53,440
Speaker 2: and they were thirteenth and seventeenth and passing SMP plus

1335
00:57:53,440 --> 00:57:55,520
Speaker 2: the two seasons that he was at NCA State. But

1336
00:57:55,560 --> 00:57:57,080
Speaker 2: the one thing I keep hearing from everybody is that

1337
00:57:57,120 --> 00:57:59,480
Speaker 2: he's an explosive coach. He's an explosive coach. It's amazing

1338
00:57:59,480 --> 00:58:00,960
Speaker 2: that we got him. And then you look at nc

1339
00:58:01,080 --> 00:58:04,640
Speaker 2: State stats and with Ryan Finley, they were only fifty

1340
00:58:04,640 --> 00:58:07,440
Speaker 2: seventh to eighty ninth and IOPPP. So I think that

1341
00:58:07,520 --> 00:58:10,400
Speaker 2: he's kind of being improperly labeled as explosive when he's

1342
00:58:10,440 --> 00:58:14,400
Speaker 2: actually just efficient. So I don't know if it's the

1343
00:58:14,680 --> 00:58:18,120
Speaker 2: coaching change. You know, I feel like APP State could

1344
00:58:18,280 --> 00:58:20,960
Speaker 2: beat everybody in this conference, no problem, But there is

1345
00:58:21,000 --> 00:58:23,120
Speaker 2: a change at the top. There is a change in

1346
00:58:23,120 --> 00:58:26,240
Speaker 2: some coordinator positions, and that makes me wary of buying them.

1347
00:58:26,280 --> 00:58:28,720
Speaker 2: Maybe it's just a rule of thumb and off season

1348
00:58:28,760 --> 00:58:32,040
Speaker 2: investments that I just don't buy into new coaches, new places,

1349
00:58:32,080 --> 00:58:34,200
Speaker 2: I guess, unless their name is Texas State.

1350
00:58:35,040 --> 00:58:39,120
Speaker 1: Yeah we'll get to Texas State, don't you worry. But yeah,

1351
00:58:39,160 --> 00:58:40,480
Speaker 1: I mean I agree. I think Troy is a team

1352
00:58:40,520 --> 00:58:43,800
Speaker 1: that could capitalize off of app State, and I think

1353
00:58:43,840 --> 00:58:46,440
Speaker 1: Georgia Southern is going to suffer some negative regression. So

1354
00:58:46,480 --> 00:58:48,160
Speaker 1: I think it's Troy who does host. Like we said,

1355
00:58:48,160 --> 00:58:50,439
Speaker 1: Georgia Southern and Apps State that could take advantage. Let's

1356
00:58:50,440 --> 00:58:54,360
Speaker 1: finish up the east. Two bottom feeders there Coastal Carolina

1357
00:58:54,960 --> 00:58:56,959
Speaker 1: and by the way, Colin likes the over and Troy,

1358
00:58:57,000 --> 00:58:59,760
Speaker 1: which I would agree with. Coastal Carolina win total four

1359
00:58:59,800 --> 00:59:01,440
Speaker 1: and a half over four and a half plus one

1360
00:59:01,480 --> 00:59:03,760
Speaker 1: forty Columics at three point nine. They just have an

1361
00:59:03,800 --> 00:59:05,360
Speaker 1: easy schedule with a couple of easy wins they should

1362
00:59:05,360 --> 00:59:08,360
Speaker 1: get at home. But they're horrible. I mean, their quarterback

1363
00:59:08,360 --> 00:59:11,280
Speaker 1: plays horrible. There's some terrible quarterbacks in the fun bell

1364
00:59:11,880 --> 00:59:13,400
Speaker 1: Fred Payton, who I think is going to start for

1365
00:59:13,440 --> 00:59:17,440
Speaker 1: Coastal he's terrible. Cephus Johnson for South Alabama, he's terrible.

1366
00:59:17,680 --> 00:59:20,000
Speaker 1: Your boy Vitt at Texas State, who's not going to start.

1367
00:59:20,040 --> 00:59:22,600
Speaker 1: I know, probably, but we'll get to them. But Coastal stinks.

1368
00:59:22,880 --> 00:59:27,160
Speaker 1: And then you have Georgia State, who you know, I

1369
00:59:27,200 --> 00:59:29,440
Speaker 1: think could be a little better. You make their win

1370
00:59:29,520 --> 00:59:32,000
Speaker 1: total three point one, but you woke up one morning

1371
00:59:32,000 --> 00:59:35,440
Speaker 1: and thought they could win the conference. What were you

1372
00:59:35,520 --> 00:59:36,720
Speaker 1: smoking that morning.

1373
00:59:37,960 --> 00:59:40,280
Speaker 2: I must have woke up in a state where that

1374
00:59:40,360 --> 00:59:44,000
Speaker 2: kind of thing is legalized. So Coastal Carolina, let me

1375
00:59:44,000 --> 00:59:46,240
Speaker 2: go back to Coast Carolina real quick. They are horrible

1376
00:59:46,240 --> 00:59:48,640
Speaker 2: on defense. They're in a second year defensive coordinator who's

1377
00:59:48,640 --> 00:59:51,000
Speaker 2: from a high school in Los Angeles and they were

1378
00:59:51,000 --> 00:59:53,560
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty ninth defensively n SP plus last year.

1379
00:59:53,720 --> 00:59:56,720
Speaker 2: The defense is terrible. Jamie Chadwell taking over as coach

1380
00:59:56,760 --> 00:59:59,960
Speaker 2: for Joe Moglia, I actually think that is a great move,

1381
01:00:00,120 --> 01:00:02,600
Speaker 2: perfect move. He knows this seems interim for such a

1382
01:00:02,640 --> 01:00:05,840
Speaker 2: long time for this program. He is the coach that

1383
01:00:05,960 --> 01:00:09,160
Speaker 2: came to Fable, Arkansas and lost thirty nine to thirty

1384
01:00:09,160 --> 01:00:11,640
Speaker 2: eight to the Razorbacks and had us pinned to the

1385
01:00:11,760 --> 01:00:15,120
Speaker 2: matt an amazing comeback by the Razorbacks to beat Old

1386
01:00:15,160 --> 01:00:17,440
Speaker 2: Coast of Carolina just two years ago. Jamie Chadell was

1387
01:00:17,440 --> 01:00:20,720
Speaker 2: a really good coach, and offensively he's going to figure

1388
01:00:20,720 --> 01:00:23,080
Speaker 2: it out. And defensively, they got to fire this high

1389
01:00:23,080 --> 01:00:24,600
Speaker 2: school coach and get him out of there. Nothing against

1390
01:00:24,640 --> 01:00:27,280
Speaker 2: high school coaches, because we hired Gus Maleson from Springdale

1391
01:00:27,320 --> 01:00:29,800
Speaker 2: High School. So back to Georgia, State. I woke up

1392
01:00:29,800 --> 01:00:34,280
Speaker 2: one morning and I just had this thing, you know,

1393
01:00:34,520 --> 01:00:36,600
Speaker 2: could I make it work for Georgia State. Could I

1394
01:00:36,680 --> 01:00:39,040
Speaker 2: make a case for them busting through with the top

1395
01:00:39,120 --> 01:00:41,640
Speaker 2: three in this division? And the thing that I loved

1396
01:00:41,680 --> 01:00:43,760
Speaker 2: about them is that they had continuity at the head coach,

1397
01:00:44,360 --> 01:00:47,000
Speaker 2: They had continuity at the skill positions. They were twenty

1398
01:00:47,000 --> 01:00:49,600
Speaker 2: eighth in returning production. But I just couldn't get over

1399
01:00:49,640 --> 01:00:51,440
Speaker 2: the hump of the defense being you know, one hundred

1400
01:00:51,440 --> 01:00:54,200
Speaker 2: and twenty ninth against isoppp they were one hundred and

1401
01:00:54,200 --> 01:00:57,240
Speaker 2: thirtieth and third down success rate last year they were

1402
01:00:57,280 --> 01:01:00,640
Speaker 2: the worst in the nation against third down. Nate Fuqua,

1403
01:01:00,760 --> 01:01:03,440
Speaker 2: the third year defensive coordinator, he might be on the

1404
01:01:03,480 --> 01:01:05,480
Speaker 2: hot seat this year, but there's their schedule. It was

1405
01:01:05,480 --> 01:01:08,360
Speaker 2: the situational spots and their schedule that I just come

1406
01:01:08,560 --> 01:01:11,440
Speaker 2: kept coming back to. And my two favorites were Arkansas

1407
01:01:11,440 --> 01:01:13,960
Speaker 2: State is on back to back travel after they played Troy,

1408
01:01:14,160 --> 01:01:17,400
Speaker 2: So Georgia State's kind of like a pothole that Arkansas

1409
01:01:17,400 --> 01:01:19,360
Speaker 2: State can fall into because they'll be on you know,

1410
01:01:19,440 --> 01:01:21,240
Speaker 2: double road travel and they're just be coming off a

1411
01:01:21,280 --> 01:01:24,120
Speaker 2: game against Troy. So you know, Georgia State has a

1412
01:01:24,200 --> 01:01:27,160
Speaker 2: situational schedule that you know, maybe they can take advantage

1413
01:01:27,160 --> 01:01:29,080
Speaker 2: of it in some spots. Now Stuck is right, I can't.

1414
01:01:29,080 --> 01:01:31,120
Speaker 1: You're gonna bet on a pothole to win the fun Belt.

1415
01:01:31,200 --> 01:01:32,600
Speaker 2: You know, if I get over this one hundred and

1416
01:01:32,640 --> 01:01:35,040
Speaker 2: thirtieth against third downs, maybe I could have done something

1417
01:01:35,080 --> 01:01:37,920
Speaker 2: with this. But I think Georgia State is definitely worth

1418
01:01:38,040 --> 01:01:39,640
Speaker 2: a look. If you can find a cheap price, I'd

1419
01:01:39,640 --> 01:01:40,480
Speaker 2: take it over on them.

1420
01:01:40,880 --> 01:01:43,920
Speaker 1: Fair enough, all right, So let's move on to the

1421
01:01:43,960 --> 01:01:46,800
Speaker 1: West and we save the best for the last and

1422
01:01:46,880 --> 01:01:50,400
Speaker 1: the fund out west because Colin has quite the take

1423
01:01:50,440 --> 01:01:53,720
Speaker 1: on Texas State. The boys down in San Marcos, are

1424
01:01:53,760 --> 01:01:57,480
Speaker 1: you hitting me? Texas State?

1425
01:01:58,000 --> 01:02:02,680
Speaker 2: They haven't had a Sun Belt win two fifteen State.

1426
01:02:03,080 --> 01:02:07,160
Speaker 1: We'll get to that. The favorites here are Arkansas State

1427
01:02:07,720 --> 01:02:11,040
Speaker 1: and Laffey, who I love. Arkansas State's actually the favorite.

1428
01:02:11,040 --> 01:02:12,840
Speaker 1: They're plus five hundred to win the conference, same price

1429
01:02:12,880 --> 01:02:15,280
Speaker 1: as Troy out of the East and Stave he said,

1430
01:02:15,400 --> 01:02:18,560
Speaker 1: was minus one twenty arc State. You know, look, they

1431
01:02:18,960 --> 01:02:22,160
Speaker 1: have solid receivers, they have a great defensive line, they

1432
01:02:22,160 --> 01:02:24,640
Speaker 1: have a cake schedule outside of Georgia, and you know

1433
01:02:24,640 --> 01:02:26,640
Speaker 1: their win total seven and a half over seven half

1434
01:02:26,640 --> 01:02:29,120
Speaker 1: minus one fifty column makes at eight point six. The

1435
01:02:29,160 --> 01:02:31,320
Speaker 1: problem is where I don't love them is they lost

1436
01:02:31,400 --> 01:02:33,840
Speaker 1: Justice Hanson, their star quarterback, and I just don't I'm

1437
01:02:33,840 --> 01:02:36,200
Speaker 1: not a believer in Logan Bonner. I'm sorry. So I

1438
01:02:36,240 --> 01:02:37,880
Speaker 1: think that they're going to take a big step back

1439
01:02:37,880 --> 01:02:40,480
Speaker 1: because of quarterback play, despite all the other things that

1440
01:02:40,520 --> 01:02:42,400
Speaker 1: are working in their advantage. And I think I'm a

1441
01:02:42,480 --> 01:02:45,520
Speaker 1: buying La Lafi Louisiana Lafe. I feel that they I

1442
01:02:45,720 --> 01:02:47,960
Speaker 1: call them something different every time, but they have seventeen

1443
01:02:48,000 --> 01:02:50,520
Speaker 1: starters back an elite rushing attack ten to one in

1444
01:02:50,600 --> 01:02:53,760
Speaker 1: Westgate chop around. Their win total is six over six

1445
01:02:53,800 --> 01:02:56,280
Speaker 1: minus one forty five colony make it five point six.

1446
01:02:56,320 --> 01:02:58,640
Speaker 1: But I love Laffy. I guess you could also make

1447
01:02:58,640 --> 01:03:02,600
Speaker 1: a case for La Monroe win totals five as a sleeper,

1448
01:03:02,720 --> 01:03:04,480
Speaker 1: you make it five point two. They returned a ton

1449
01:03:04,560 --> 01:03:06,240
Speaker 1: as well. A lot of these teams in the funbell

1450
01:03:06,240 --> 01:03:10,080
Speaker 1: will turn a lot of productions theme throughout. Quarterback Caleb

1451
01:03:10,080 --> 01:03:12,480
Speaker 1: Evans is back the team. He kind of drives that team.

1452
01:03:12,480 --> 01:03:17,040
Speaker 1: They'll go as he goes. And then you have Texas State.

1453
01:03:17,480 --> 01:03:21,200
Speaker 1: Actually I first should mention South Alabama. This team is atrocious.

1454
01:03:21,400 --> 01:03:23,120
Speaker 1: Colin got me to love them at the beginning of

1455
01:03:23,240 --> 01:03:26,200
Speaker 1: last year. Luckily, he's getting me to hate them like

1456
01:03:26,240 --> 01:03:28,280
Speaker 1: I already hated them this year. Win total two and

1457
01:03:28,320 --> 01:03:30,600
Speaker 1: a half. Colin, you make a one point eight, you

1458
01:03:30,640 --> 01:03:33,760
Speaker 1: will be on the under cephas. Johnson is terrible at quarterback.

1459
01:03:33,760 --> 01:03:35,760
Speaker 1: They have a brutal schedule. I think there are two

1460
01:03:35,760 --> 01:03:37,959
Speaker 1: best players that year. They're punter and kicker, and they're

1461
01:03:37,960 --> 01:03:42,120
Speaker 1: both gone. They lost a ton so right off South Alabama.

1462
01:03:42,160 --> 01:03:45,400
Speaker 1: But I like Laffy to take advantage. Some people like

1463
01:03:45,520 --> 01:03:49,040
Speaker 1: arc State, but I'm not buying Bonner. Colin likes Texas State.

1464
01:03:49,280 --> 01:03:50,760
Speaker 1: Win total four and a half, he makes it five.

1465
01:03:50,800 --> 01:03:52,480
Speaker 1: He likes the over to win the conference, to win

1466
01:03:52,520 --> 01:03:54,520
Speaker 1: the West, explain yourself to win.

1467
01:03:54,440 --> 01:03:56,560
Speaker 2: The national championship. Let's just get that straight. Right with

1468
01:03:56,600 --> 01:03:59,080
Speaker 2: the Bobcats, Let's start off with South Alabama. I know

1469
01:03:59,120 --> 01:04:00,960
Speaker 2: you're mad with me about last year. I could not

1470
01:04:01,040 --> 01:04:03,880
Speaker 2: get over the fact that South Alabama had three wide

1471
01:04:03,920 --> 01:04:07,400
Speaker 2: receivers that were like two forty six foot five. They

1472
01:04:07,400 --> 01:04:10,280
Speaker 2: were like SEC wide receivers, and I thought all you

1473
01:04:10,360 --> 01:04:12,360
Speaker 2: had to do was just throw the ball up and

1474
01:04:12,440 --> 01:04:16,160
Speaker 2: let these kids go get Yeah, I think I fell

1475
01:04:16,280 --> 01:04:19,160
Speaker 2: under some local news reporting some sort of trance last

1476
01:04:19,240 --> 01:04:21,840
Speaker 2: July about how much I love these guys and their

1477
01:04:21,840 --> 01:04:25,240
Speaker 2: and their coach that came from Central Arkansas. So that aside,

1478
01:04:25,440 --> 01:04:28,040
Speaker 2: South Alabama's got depth issues. It's going to be a

1479
01:04:28,040 --> 01:04:29,880
Speaker 2: problem with the Jags all season long. They have a

1480
01:04:29,880 --> 01:04:32,720
Speaker 2: tough schedule. They're going to be double digit underdogs and

1481
01:04:32,880 --> 01:04:36,200
Speaker 2: ten games this season. Ten games, I mean the win

1482
01:04:36,280 --> 01:04:38,720
Speaker 2: totals two and a half. The Jacks are expected to

1483
01:04:38,760 --> 01:04:42,400
Speaker 2: be a touchdown underdog against Georgia State and that they

1484
01:04:42,400 --> 01:04:44,880
Speaker 2: can win as FCS Jackson State. That's not a cakewalk,

1485
01:04:45,280 --> 01:04:47,640
Speaker 2: so you know, I mean, I think that number is

1486
01:04:47,640 --> 01:04:49,600
Speaker 2: going to be around eighteen. But still, I mean, this

1487
01:04:49,720 --> 01:04:52,680
Speaker 2: is just you know that that game falls after Nebraska

1488
01:04:52,760 --> 01:04:55,720
Speaker 2: before Memphis, so you know, we'll see. But under two

1489
01:04:55,760 --> 01:04:57,600
Speaker 2: and a half is a play on South Alabama.

1490
01:04:57,400 --> 01:04:58,480
Speaker 1: That I was going to go to a Bowl of

1491
01:04:58,560 --> 01:04:59,920
Speaker 1: Jesus Christ. All right, So go ahead.

1492
01:05:00,280 --> 01:05:03,000
Speaker 2: So let's talk about Arkansas State because I'm kind of

1493
01:05:03,000 --> 01:05:04,760
Speaker 2: in a I agree with doc dating the loss of

1494
01:05:04,880 --> 01:05:08,680
Speaker 2: Justice Hansen, big deal at quarterback there. Arkansas State does

1495
01:05:08,840 --> 01:05:12,120
Speaker 2: have I would say the best defensive line in the

1496
01:05:12,160 --> 01:05:13,959
Speaker 2: Sun Belt. They have a defensive line that could play

1497
01:05:13,960 --> 01:05:16,080
Speaker 2: in other conferences. I mean it's that good.

1498
01:05:16,160 --> 01:05:18,760
Speaker 1: And yeah, I think a group of line.

1499
01:05:19,200 --> 01:05:21,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, best cream of five D line and it's definitely arguable,

1500
01:05:21,560 --> 01:05:23,480
Speaker 2: but I think that they have that. Even the kid

1501
01:05:23,520 --> 01:05:28,120
Speaker 2: that was on Last Chance you kd Gosh Kilanie Davis

1502
01:05:28,120 --> 01:05:29,919
Speaker 2: I think was his name, But he's at Arkansas State

1503
01:05:29,920 --> 01:05:32,240
Speaker 2: now and he's not even cracked the starting four, but

1504
01:05:32,280 --> 01:05:34,880
Speaker 2: he will get some playing time this year. But I mean,

1505
01:05:35,400 --> 01:05:37,880
Speaker 2: you know, there are road games against South Alabama, ULM,

1506
01:05:37,920 --> 01:05:40,640
Speaker 2: Georgia State, so I mean that's all good stuff. One

1507
01:05:40,880 --> 01:05:43,880
Speaker 2: huge advantage for Arkansas State is that in the Sun Belt.

1508
01:05:44,000 --> 01:05:45,520
Speaker 2: You have to realize this was Sun Belt play if

1509
01:05:45,520 --> 01:05:47,480
Speaker 2: you're unfamiliar to this and how they've done the divisions.

1510
01:05:47,480 --> 01:05:51,240
Speaker 2: There's two teams, there's there's two divisions A five, and

1511
01:05:51,440 --> 01:05:54,360
Speaker 2: the schedule dictates that you will miss one team in

1512
01:05:54,440 --> 01:05:58,040
Speaker 2: conference play. There's everybody has their one assigned team that

1513
01:05:58,040 --> 01:06:01,160
Speaker 2: they will miss. Arkansas State does not play Appalation State

1514
01:06:01,160 --> 01:06:03,960
Speaker 2: in conference play, which means everybody else in the West

1515
01:06:04,040 --> 01:06:06,680
Speaker 2: has to play Appalation State. So that is a huge

1516
01:06:06,760 --> 01:06:09,200
Speaker 2: leg up for Arkansas State. Now, there's some other things

1517
01:06:09,200 --> 01:06:11,320
Speaker 2: going on I agree with Stuck about the quarterback play.

1518
01:06:11,400 --> 01:06:13,640
Speaker 2: It's going to take a major drop off for the

1519
01:06:13,640 --> 01:06:15,800
Speaker 2: Red Wolves used to be the Indians back in the

1520
01:06:15,880 --> 01:06:18,520
Speaker 2: day over in Jonesboro. The offense loses plenty, but the

1521
01:06:18,560 --> 01:06:21,200
Speaker 2: defense is still twenty seventh in returning production. But I

1522
01:06:21,200 --> 01:06:24,080
Speaker 2: think there's something else that, you know, we need to

1523
01:06:24,080 --> 01:06:27,280
Speaker 2: say cordially is that and there a head coach is

1524
01:06:27,280 --> 01:06:30,200
Speaker 2: going through a lot off, you know, off the field.

1525
01:06:30,680 --> 01:06:33,400
Speaker 2: His wife has had cancer for the last eighteen months,

1526
01:06:33,400 --> 01:06:35,360
Speaker 2: two years. It's something that the team's been dealing with,

1527
01:06:35,520 --> 01:06:38,200
Speaker 2: coach has been dealing with, and if you just kind

1528
01:06:38,200 --> 01:06:42,880
Speaker 2: of poke around, it's not getting better and it's it's

1529
01:06:44,120 --> 01:06:47,360
Speaker 2: looking like it's not going to have the same happy

1530
01:06:47,400 --> 01:06:49,280
Speaker 2: news that it has had in the past when when

1531
01:06:49,320 --> 01:06:53,360
Speaker 2: the cancer has been in remission. So there's gonna be

1532
01:06:53,360 --> 01:06:55,520
Speaker 2: things going on off the field with Arkansas State. Does

1533
01:06:55,560 --> 01:06:58,480
Speaker 2: that play a factor in your handicap? The coordinators have

1534
01:06:58,560 --> 01:07:00,920
Speaker 2: been coming and going out of this program pretty frequently.

1535
01:07:01,000 --> 01:07:03,400
Speaker 2: The success that Arkansas State has had. They have a

1536
01:07:03,440 --> 01:07:05,680
Speaker 2: new coaching staff in there, I think the last three years.

1537
01:07:05,720 --> 01:07:09,120
Speaker 2: I mean Mamazon was there, the guy Boise Harrison's been there,

1538
01:07:09,560 --> 01:07:11,360
Speaker 2: Hugh Freeze has been there. I mean, coaches have been

1539
01:07:11,360 --> 01:07:14,680
Speaker 2: coming and going out of there so fast. And you know,

1540
01:07:15,040 --> 01:07:18,000
Speaker 2: Blake Anderson's been there a while, and if he is

1541
01:07:18,040 --> 01:07:20,280
Speaker 2: not around the program for say two or three weeks,

1542
01:07:20,560 --> 01:07:22,720
Speaker 2: that could be something a part of your handicap. So

1543
01:07:23,280 --> 01:07:25,520
Speaker 2: not really a whole lot of investments for me going

1544
01:07:25,560 --> 01:07:28,240
Speaker 2: into Arkansas State. You know, as far as Ulo goes,

1545
01:07:28,960 --> 01:07:31,840
Speaker 2: I just have as much love for these guys as

1546
01:07:31,880 --> 01:07:35,040
Speaker 2: Stuck does. I mean, their fifth overall and explosiveness, that's all.

1547
01:07:35,120 --> 01:07:38,040
Speaker 2: Billy Napier, Billy Napier is a disciple of Nick Saban.

1548
01:07:38,120 --> 01:07:40,920
Speaker 2: He comes out of his coaching tree. Levi Lewis is

1549
01:07:40,960 --> 01:07:43,480
Speaker 2: their quarterback. He had fifty nine attemps last season a quarterback.

1550
01:07:43,520 --> 01:07:46,200
Speaker 2: That was stable amount of running backs and return every

1551
01:07:46,280 --> 01:07:48,760
Speaker 2: starter on the offensive line. The problem for me with

1552
01:07:49,120 --> 01:07:52,280
Speaker 2: ULL or Lafayette or Louisiana or whatever we're gonna call

1553
01:07:52,360 --> 01:07:54,680
Speaker 2: him is that the app state in Arkansas State swing

1554
01:07:54,680 --> 01:07:56,360
Speaker 2: in their schedule is not going to be easy, and

1555
01:07:56,360 --> 01:07:58,600
Speaker 2: that could be what makes the difference. And then getting

1556
01:07:58,640 --> 01:08:01,240
Speaker 2: to the conference championship game, Ulm. You know, they return

1557
01:08:01,280 --> 01:08:03,160
Speaker 2: all five of their offensive lineman. Like you said, there's

1558
01:08:03,200 --> 01:08:05,720
Speaker 2: a lot of returning starters. Caleb Evans is back at quarterback,

1559
01:08:05,960 --> 01:08:09,000
Speaker 2: but they lose Marcus Screen. They're super wide receiver. He

1560
01:08:09,040 --> 01:08:11,080
Speaker 2: had eight tds last year. If you add up all

1561
01:08:11,120 --> 01:08:14,520
Speaker 2: the touchdowns on Ulm's roster, it gets to seven between

1562
01:08:14,560 --> 01:08:16,519
Speaker 2: all the other targets on the team. So losing Marcus

1563
01:08:16,520 --> 01:08:18,240
Speaker 2: s Green his eight t ds is a really big

1564
01:08:18,280 --> 01:08:20,720
Speaker 2: deal for ULM. At the return game too, Marcus Screen

1565
01:08:20,840 --> 01:08:22,960
Speaker 2: is a big part of that. So tough schedule. Look

1566
01:08:22,960 --> 01:08:26,160
Speaker 2: at look at the ULM schedule. Florida State, Iowa State

1567
01:08:26,320 --> 01:08:29,240
Speaker 2: non conference. They played Texas State and this is going

1568
01:08:29,320 --> 01:08:31,479
Speaker 2: to play I'm leading up to it here, but they

1569
01:08:31,479 --> 01:08:35,360
Speaker 2: played Texas State five days after they played Memphis. After

1570
01:08:35,479 --> 01:08:38,400
Speaker 2: ULM gets boat raced by Memphis, there may be one

1571
01:08:38,479 --> 01:08:41,160
Speaker 2: hundred plays in that game. They have five days to

1572
01:08:41,240 --> 01:08:44,599
Speaker 2: recover to play the boys from San Marcos. All right,

1573
01:08:44,680 --> 01:08:47,080
Speaker 2: So before we get to this Texas State, then let's

1574
01:08:47,080 --> 01:08:49,880
Speaker 2: talk about what's happened in the offseason with these guys.

1575
01:08:49,880 --> 01:08:51,559
Speaker 2: So if you don't know who Bob Steed is, he

1576
01:08:51,720 --> 01:08:54,760
Speaker 2: was the head coach up at Montana. They had a

1577
01:08:54,840 --> 01:08:58,320
Speaker 2: very successful program up there at their level, and Bob

1578
01:08:58,360 --> 01:09:03,720
Speaker 2: Stitt is known as whisper An offensive coordinator Guy Dana Holgerson,

1579
01:09:04,160 --> 01:09:06,639
Speaker 2: I believe won an Orange Bowl about a decade ago.

1580
01:09:07,040 --> 01:09:09,559
Speaker 2: In his postgame interview, he said, oh yeah, that Jet

1581
01:09:09,640 --> 01:09:12,160
Speaker 2: sweet play the thing that I ran forty times and

1582
01:09:12,200 --> 01:09:14,160
Speaker 2: won the Orange Bowl with. I got that from Bob Stitt.

1583
01:09:14,240 --> 01:09:18,400
Speaker 2: Bob Sitt is highly respected. He comes down two years

1584
01:09:18,439 --> 01:09:22,040
Speaker 2: removed from Montana. He brings his quarterback from Montana down

1585
01:09:22,439 --> 01:09:26,040
Speaker 2: in the form of Gresh Jensen. Gresh love him. Jensen

1586
01:09:26,120 --> 01:09:28,479
Speaker 2: is scheduled to be the starter over Tyler Vitt, who

1587
01:09:28,479 --> 01:09:31,439
Speaker 2: played for Texas State last year. You love Tyler vant

1588
01:09:31,479 --> 01:09:32,559
Speaker 2: and now you love Tyler.

1589
01:09:32,560 --> 01:09:35,080
Speaker 1: You've dumped them. You've just dumped them, moved on to Gresh.

1590
01:09:35,120 --> 01:09:37,200
Speaker 2: Well, we got Jalen Gibson, we got Tyler Vitt, we

1591
01:09:37,280 --> 01:09:41,160
Speaker 2: got Gresh Jensen, and now I think announced today a

1592
01:09:41,200 --> 01:09:44,880
Speaker 2: red shirt freshman from Memphis, Brady McBride, is transferring down

1593
01:09:44,880 --> 01:09:46,719
Speaker 2: to San Marko. I don't know if they're handing out candy.

1594
01:09:46,920 --> 01:09:49,080
Speaker 2: I don't know if the if the female student body's

1595
01:09:49,120 --> 01:09:51,839
Speaker 2: looking good. But everybody wants to play in San Marcos.

1596
01:09:51,880 --> 01:09:53,960
Speaker 2: Everybody wants to be a Bobcat these days. I mean,

1597
01:09:54,040 --> 01:09:57,160
Speaker 2: I don't understand how things change so fast. It's almost

1598
01:09:57,200 --> 01:09:59,799
Speaker 2: like there's something in the water down there. But Jensen

1599
01:09:59,800 --> 01:10:02,360
Speaker 2: got the Gresh Jensen got the start at quarterback in

1600
01:10:02,360 --> 01:10:05,280
Speaker 2: Saturday scrimmage. He looked good. Spavittol came out and said

1601
01:10:05,280 --> 01:10:07,320
Speaker 2: that he was most impressed with Tyler Vitt. So they're

1602
01:10:07,320 --> 01:10:09,720
Speaker 2: really haven't named who the starting quarterback is going to

1603
01:10:09,720 --> 01:10:11,360
Speaker 2: be yet. Of course, Vitt can do with his legs

1604
01:10:11,360 --> 01:10:13,559
Speaker 2: as to where gresh Chinsen is more of a pocket passer.

1605
01:10:13,960 --> 01:10:17,280
Speaker 2: Texas State has the top sun built recruiting class from

1606
01:10:17,320 --> 01:10:20,760
Speaker 2: twenty seventeen. Those guys are all on the roster. They

1607
01:10:20,800 --> 01:10:24,040
Speaker 2: have third in the nation in returning production and that

1608
01:10:24,080 --> 01:10:26,639
Speaker 2: includes a bunch of guys that were in that top

1609
01:10:26,640 --> 01:10:29,280
Speaker 2: recruiting class from twenty seventeen. So they have the talent

1610
01:10:29,320 --> 01:10:32,799
Speaker 2: to at least do something. They have a great situational schedule.

1611
01:10:33,000 --> 01:10:35,240
Speaker 2: They avoid playing Georgia Southern from the east. Well, we

1612
01:10:35,280 --> 01:10:37,040
Speaker 2: just talked about how Georgia Southern is going to be down.

1613
01:10:37,320 --> 01:10:40,680
Speaker 2: But when you can avoid a triple option team, what

1614
01:10:40,680 --> 01:10:43,120
Speaker 2: that means is you don't have any throwaway work. Your

1615
01:10:43,120 --> 01:10:45,879
Speaker 2: defensive coordinator doesn't have to prepare two weeks in advance,

1616
01:10:46,240 --> 01:10:48,800
Speaker 2: and you know with game preparations for a triple option

1617
01:10:48,880 --> 01:10:50,760
Speaker 2: offense that you're just going to throw away because you're

1618
01:10:50,800 --> 01:10:52,639
Speaker 2: not playing Army again, You're not going to play anybody

1619
01:10:52,680 --> 01:10:55,200
Speaker 2: that runs a triple option. So anywhek put into Georgia

1620
01:10:55,240 --> 01:10:57,280
Speaker 2: Southern's kind of a hassle. For some of these teams.

1621
01:10:57,400 --> 01:10:58,840
Speaker 2: They don't have to worry about it. They don't play

1622
01:10:58,840 --> 01:11:01,479
Speaker 2: Georgia Southern. From the other side, app State. When they

1623
01:11:01,479 --> 01:11:03,160
Speaker 2: play app State, app State will have to look ahead

1624
01:11:03,160 --> 01:11:05,120
Speaker 2: to Troy. That is their biggest game of the year,

1625
01:11:05,160 --> 01:11:07,400
Speaker 2: and app State only thinks about Troy and they got

1626
01:11:07,400 --> 01:11:09,599
Speaker 2: to play Texas State first. They get a bye week

1627
01:11:09,640 --> 01:11:13,120
Speaker 2: before they face ulm Ulm. Like we said, there'll be

1628
01:11:13,120 --> 01:11:15,879
Speaker 2: out five days rest after a boat race with Memphis.

1629
01:11:16,080 --> 01:11:17,960
Speaker 2: The only problem is at Arkansas State game. We can't

1630
01:11:17,960 --> 01:11:20,439
Speaker 2: get to the Sun Belt Championship unless they can beat

1631
01:11:20,520 --> 01:11:22,479
Speaker 2: Arkansas State. So that is where if you're going to

1632
01:11:22,560 --> 01:11:24,920
Speaker 2: invest in any of these futures, let's talk seriously about this.

1633
01:11:25,000 --> 01:11:27,000
Speaker 2: I mean, this number has been one hundred and fifty

1634
01:11:27,040 --> 01:11:28,840
Speaker 2: to one, one hundred to one. I'm not saying go

1635
01:11:28,880 --> 01:11:30,960
Speaker 2: out there and throw a whole bunch of money on it.

1636
01:11:31,000 --> 01:11:32,920
Speaker 2: If you're a five hundred dollars better think about throwing

1637
01:11:32,920 --> 01:11:35,360
Speaker 2: fifty dollars on it. But if you get some money

1638
01:11:35,360 --> 01:11:37,160
Speaker 2: down on this, I mean you're going to be in

1639
01:11:37,160 --> 01:11:39,720
Speaker 2: a head situation against Arkansas State at least, and then

1640
01:11:39,840 --> 01:11:41,599
Speaker 2: you're gonna have to deal with the app State monster

1641
01:11:41,680 --> 01:11:44,160
Speaker 2: in the championship game. But you know, supporting the first

1642
01:11:44,240 --> 01:11:46,519
Speaker 2: year coach with new schemes on both sides of the ball,

1643
01:11:46,600 --> 01:11:49,160
Speaker 2: you know it's worth a shot at this price. It's

1644
01:11:49,200 --> 01:11:51,760
Speaker 2: really all about price. I would stop buying Texas State

1645
01:11:52,040 --> 01:11:53,960
Speaker 2: at eighty to one. I'm seeing eighty to one around

1646
01:11:53,960 --> 01:11:56,000
Speaker 2: a lot of shops. That's when I stop buying. So

1647
01:11:56,120 --> 01:11:58,280
Speaker 2: just word of warning there. This doesn't go out and

1648
01:11:58,280 --> 01:12:00,320
Speaker 2: just open up the floodgates and buy anything. Just make

1649
01:12:00,360 --> 01:12:03,400
Speaker 2: sure it's above eighty to one. The schedule screens opportunity.

1650
01:12:03,520 --> 01:12:05,880
Speaker 2: All the talent is back, and this is a very

1651
01:12:06,080 --> 01:12:08,439
Speaker 2: very high respected coaching staff.

1652
01:12:08,680 --> 01:12:10,840
Speaker 1: Yes, Bat Jake's Babtel the new head coach. They do

1653
01:12:10,920 --> 01:12:14,440
Speaker 1: bring everyone back with new coordinators. But you're buying gresh

1654
01:12:14,600 --> 01:12:18,040
Speaker 1: and stit the Montana connection, yes, San Marcos, I mean

1655
01:12:18,080 --> 01:12:20,719
Speaker 1: I guess it's Texas State and a bunch of outlet malls.

1656
01:12:20,760 --> 01:12:23,920
Speaker 1: I guess Colin, you'll be heading down there to shop

1657
01:12:24,080 --> 01:12:26,519
Speaker 1: if I think you still have to make it down

1658
01:12:26,560 --> 01:12:29,920
Speaker 1: to Birmingham to celebrate your UAB ticket. But this is

1659
01:12:29,960 --> 01:12:33,040
Speaker 1: your big shot this year. I'll be on laughy. I'm

1660
01:12:33,080 --> 01:12:35,160
Speaker 1: not buying Texas State, but you make a good case

1661
01:12:35,240 --> 01:12:37,200
Speaker 1: and I think I'll join you on the over but

1662
01:12:37,280 --> 01:12:41,240
Speaker 1: not to win the fun Belt. So that covers all

1663
01:12:41,600 --> 01:12:44,880
Speaker 1: sixty group of five teams. I think I mentioned everyone, Colin.

1664
01:12:44,880 --> 01:12:46,160
Speaker 1: I think you did too. There might be a couple

1665
01:12:46,240 --> 01:12:47,840
Speaker 1: that you didn't mentioned when I was just going through.

1666
01:12:48,040 --> 01:12:50,639
Speaker 1: We did it in almost just a little over an hour.

1667
01:12:50,920 --> 01:12:53,160
Speaker 1: We hope you got all of it. And if he didn't,

1668
01:12:53,240 --> 01:12:55,479
Speaker 1: tune in next week because in our week zero previews,

1669
01:12:55,479 --> 01:12:58,040
Speaker 1: we have two games next week. We have the big

1670
01:12:58,080 --> 01:13:01,920
Speaker 1: one which is my Ani and Florida, and then we

1671
01:13:01,960 --> 01:13:06,280
Speaker 1: also have Hawaii and Arizona totals sitting around seventy seventy one,

1672
01:13:06,360 --> 01:13:07,760
Speaker 1: so it could be a shootout. We'll go into both

1673
01:13:07,760 --> 01:13:09,880
Speaker 1: of those games. We'll have a guest. We'll also cover

1674
01:13:09,960 --> 01:13:12,599
Speaker 1: the Independence, which six schools left the preview, so we'll

1675
01:13:12,640 --> 01:13:14,839
Speaker 1: cover you know for your Notre Dame, your BYU fans,

1676
01:13:14,880 --> 01:13:16,800
Speaker 1: and I guess there could be some new Mexico State

1677
01:13:16,840 --> 01:13:18,720
Speaker 1: fans out there. And then obviously we have to cover

1678
01:13:19,040 --> 01:13:27,080
Speaker 1: Liberty and Armie, two of the podcasts favorite teams last year.

1679
01:13:27,360 --> 01:13:29,960
Speaker 2: I hear you Freeze has some time and laying on

1680
01:13:30,000 --> 01:13:31,960
Speaker 2: his back, he could probably come on as a guest.

1681
01:13:32,240 --> 01:13:34,720
Speaker 2: You Freeze, So what are your vices?

1682
01:13:35,000 --> 01:13:37,040
Speaker 1: I have been known to chew a bit of tobacco

1683
01:13:37,080 --> 01:13:39,400
Speaker 1: when I get a little tired. We might have to

1684
01:13:39,439 --> 01:13:42,640
Speaker 1: do that and book shot. And then then one thing

1685
01:13:42,680 --> 01:13:43,960
Speaker 1: we didn't mention was you, Matt. So I guess I

1686
01:13:44,040 --> 01:13:46,960
Speaker 1: mentioned all sixty six teams non Power five teams today.

1687
01:13:47,400 --> 01:13:50,040
Speaker 1: But thank you for listening. Thank you for joining me. Colin.

1688
01:13:50,400 --> 01:13:54,560
Speaker 1: We are less than a week away from live college football.

1689
01:13:55,080 --> 01:13:58,559
Speaker 1: I can't wait. Thank you for listening again. If you

1690
01:13:58,600 --> 01:14:04,440
Speaker 1: haven't already, please rate us, leave a review. It really helps. Subscribe, unsubscribe.

1691
01:14:04,640 --> 01:14:06,560
Speaker 1: You know the drill. We'll catch you all later in

1692
01:14:06,600 --> 01:14:06,840
Speaker 1: the week.

1693
01:14:07,000 --> 01:14:08,360
Speaker 2: Cheers, peace out,