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Speaker 1: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What's up, Straight Fire, Fam.

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Speaker 1: It's me Jason McIntyre, Straight Fire for Thursday, September thirty,

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Speaker 1: final day in the month of September. You know, this

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Speaker 1: weekend the calendar turns to October. Everybody's got to get

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Speaker 1: a Halloween costume. In the Northeast, the colors of the

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Speaker 1: leaves changed colors. It's so nice. I used to like it,

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Speaker 1: but I don't really miss that being out here in

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Speaker 1: California where it is going to be seventy nine degrees

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Speaker 1: on Saturday. UM Sports Sports, Sports Folks. Today's guest. UM

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Speaker 1: probably a top ten interview I've done in the year

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Speaker 1: plus we've had the pot. His name is Rufus Peabody. UM.

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Speaker 1: I had never really spoken to him at length, although

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Speaker 1: he reminded me had to come on my radio show once.

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Speaker 1: Super Sharp guy went to Yale. UM. Professional ambler, like

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Speaker 1: that's all he does. Doesn't have a nine to five,

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Speaker 1: doesn't work on contract for anybody. Just professional gambler. He's

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Speaker 1: a big time uh pro and uh he moves golf markets.

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Speaker 1: If you guys remember Preston Johnson, UM a friend of

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Speaker 1: the podcast. He he's been long been a big fan

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Speaker 1: of rufus is and I asked Preston. I said, hey, man,

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Speaker 1: we we've had a lot of gamblers on the pod

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Speaker 1: and I feel like I'm the well is running low.

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Speaker 1: He goes, have you had Rufus Peabody on it? Like,

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Speaker 1: maybe I should get him? Will he do it? Um?

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Speaker 1: Because I've never really talked to Rufus and he's a

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Speaker 1: bit of a different dude. He does a podcast with

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Speaker 1: Jeff ma who he used to be friendly with. But

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Speaker 1: I guess Jeff Moss not a fan of my work anymore.

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Speaker 1: Maybe he considers me a sellout having gone to Fox.

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Speaker 1: I don't know. At any rate, Um, Rufus Peabody is phenomenal.

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Speaker 1: He gives out a couple of winners at the end

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Speaker 1: of the podcast. He's got a really cool new website

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Speaker 1: that I think you're gonna like. And I know not

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Speaker 1: everybody here is going to be into the numbers and

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Speaker 1: wanted to do a model, but I think it can

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Speaker 1: help you. And if you can spend the thirty minutes,

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Speaker 1: you know, tinkering with the website, even fift ten whatever

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Speaker 1: you got, I think it's gonna help you in the

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Speaker 1: long run. It's you know, it's probably h the built.

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Speaker 1: What he's built is certainly a level above my pay grade.

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Speaker 1: But I'm willing to put in the time because i

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Speaker 1: want to get better at this. I think you're gonna

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Speaker 1: really like the interview. At the end of the pot,

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Speaker 1: I will give my Thursday Night football pick. You're not

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Speaker 1: gonna like it, um, but I'm gonna give it anyway. Uh.

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Speaker 1: Last Thursday was an easy winner. Carolina Monday was a

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Speaker 1: fairly easy Dallas winner, although my teaser with the Eagles

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Speaker 1: got screwed. But nevertheless, we roll on a couple of stories.

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Speaker 1: First of all, we don't really talk a lot of

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Speaker 1: baseball in this podcast, but just two wacky stories. First

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Speaker 1: of all, the St. Louis Cardinals had a seven teen

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Speaker 1: game winning streak, which is bananas, and it got snapped

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Speaker 1: last night. And you know, I seventeen game winning streaks unbelievable.

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Speaker 1: I was not really aware of what was happening. Um,

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Speaker 1: but they have been on such a tear. Uh. The

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Speaker 1: couldn't quite catch the Brewers, but they're in the postseason

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Speaker 1: postseasons looking like Atlanta Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Giants, Dodgers, um.

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Speaker 1: Almost all set in the NL in the a l

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Speaker 1: a little more muddled. Yankees are probably him, but not

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Speaker 1: totally yet. Tampa's in, White Sox are in. Astros are

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Speaker 1: as close as you can be too in and then

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Speaker 1: it'll be Um, probably the Yankees and either Red Sox

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Speaker 1: or Blue Jays Um. But the other baseball story was crazy.

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Speaker 1: So the Milwaukee Brewers have a reigning Rookie of the Year.

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Speaker 1: He's a setup man and he's incredible with the Brewers.

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Speaker 1: He went out for drinks after they lost Sunday, I'm sorry,

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Speaker 1: after they clinched a playoff the title on Sunday. He

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Speaker 1: went out for drinks and punched a wall with his

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Speaker 1: throwing hand. Broken hand, needs a plate in his hand.

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Speaker 1: He's done for the year. What are you doing, dude?

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Speaker 1: What on earth are you doing? His name is Devin Williams,

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Speaker 1: and listen, he's He's twenty seven, so I don't know

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Speaker 1: that I could call him like a young kid um,

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Speaker 1: But dude, you're that is such an idiotic move, like

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Speaker 1: now you're gonna punch a wall. I will admit I

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Speaker 1: punched a wall when I was fourteen. I think I

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Speaker 1: might have broken my pinky um out of extreme frustration

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Speaker 1: that my parents would not let me like go hang

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Speaker 1: out with friends who were hanging out with some girls.

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Speaker 1: And I was like, you know, idiotic, young kid punched

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Speaker 1: a wall. Did I don't know if I broke anything,

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Speaker 1: but I wasn't pitching got a contender in the National League.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you just let down your entire team, dude. Unbelievable.

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Speaker 1: All right, quickly to the NFL. I know J Glazer.

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Speaker 1: I've done him for a while. When I first moved

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Speaker 1: out here, one of the first people I talked to

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Speaker 1: was Glazer because I had already known him, and he said, yeah,

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Speaker 1: come up to my gym, let's work out. I go

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Speaker 1: to work out in like one of his classes at

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Speaker 1: this gym that he's got in West Hollywood, and there's

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Speaker 1: like an actor from ballers um some air to some

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Speaker 1: like um makeup fortune. Uh. She she who was in

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Speaker 1: like the group, and you know, she's obviously pretty attractive

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Speaker 1: and in extremely good shape. And I'm like, oh, wow,

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Speaker 1: who's that Glazer? And he tells me worth hundreds of

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Speaker 1: millions of dollars. Oh nice, And I'm just like, this

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Speaker 1: is fun. And Glazer and I have been friends for

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Speaker 1: what I haven't seen him in a minute. But he

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Speaker 1: put out something yesterday that is a little out of

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Speaker 1: character for him. And I say out of character because

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Speaker 1: he's not the kind of guy who does floats stuff.

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Speaker 1: Anybody can float stuff. Glazer really doesn't just toss stuff

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Speaker 1: out there. That's just not how he operates. And he

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Speaker 1: put out a tweet that said, you know, keep an

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Speaker 1: eye on this situation, and that would be Deshaun Watson

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Speaker 1: and the Texans trading him. Um Glazer said, asked for teams.

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Speaker 1: To me, Miami makes the most sense and probably has

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Speaker 1: the best chance to pull it off if a deal

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Speaker 1: gets done. Take a look at the Miami Dolphins just

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Speaker 1: lost to the Raiders. Jacoby said, had to throw fifty

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Speaker 1: five passes two us on the I R. Even if

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Speaker 1: he comes back, he ain't gonna be taking him to

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Speaker 1: the Promised Land. Okay, folks, we've talked about on this pot.

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Speaker 1: The Miami Dolphins want him badly. Carolina had wanted him.

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Speaker 1: Albert Brier came on here, said, Carolina is in the mix,

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Speaker 1: Phillies in the mix um Philly. It's funny Jalen Hurts

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Speaker 1: as the awesome opener, and everyone s, oh, maybe Jaylan

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Speaker 1: Hurts is a guy. Two games later, he ain't the guy.

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Speaker 1: Um Carolina interesting undefeated Sam Donald playing well Dallas this

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Speaker 1: weekend if they happen to win that as four and

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Speaker 1: a half point dogs, and by the way, interesting line movement.

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Speaker 1: I thought the line would instantly go up after Dallas

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Speaker 1: smoked Philly in primetime. You'd think public come in heavy

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Speaker 1: on Dallas. Who's gonna be bet in Carolina? The pros

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Speaker 1: seemed to be on Carolina. Very interesting. I did not

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Speaker 1: anticipate it. No, No, Christian mccaff we know. Um, I

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Speaker 1: like that Carolina defense. I'm on Dallas in this spot.

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Speaker 1: But if Daryl wins this, like, yeah, I know, you've

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Speaker 1: always got to upgrade the quarterback. I just I don't

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Speaker 1: know how it this juncture. You're making a move for

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Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson. I mean, you don't want to miss the

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Speaker 1: boat on Watson, but I just I'm not sure how

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Speaker 1: that's that your top priority right now. They just added C. J. Henderson,

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Speaker 1: the cornerback from Jacksonville. They want to win now, they

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Speaker 1: can get to the playoffs in that division. It's Tampa.

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Speaker 1: I think Caroline is better than the Saints. They already

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Speaker 1: beat them, but it was just one game. Um, Watson

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Speaker 1: in Miami. Man, you know this would be super depressing

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Speaker 1: if you're a Jets fan. Josh Allen in the division,

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Speaker 1: nearly the m v P winner last year. Um, he's

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Speaker 1: one of the MVP favorites this year. You have to

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Speaker 1: do with Tom Brady for two decades. Um, and now

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Speaker 1: you're gonna add Deshaun Watson, who has basically been a

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Speaker 1: top five or six quarterbacks since you know, the last

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Speaker 1: five years or four years. Like, that's just bruto from

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Speaker 1: my Jets. We can't catch to freaking break at anyway.

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Speaker 1: So those are the top stories heading into Thursday night football.

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Speaker 1: Bengals Panthers, but before I'm sorry, Bengals Jaguars, but before

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Speaker 1: we get to that game. Rufus Peabody from Unabated sports

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Speaker 1: dot com. Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk

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Speaker 1: lineup in the nation. Catch all of our shows at

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Speaker 1: Fox sports Radio dot com and within the I Heart

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Speaker 1: Radio app search f s R to listen live. Jason

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Speaker 1: likes to think he knows everything when it comes to sports.

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Speaker 1: I know what sports dans want, but for everything he doesn't.

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Speaker 1: He knows a guy who does. Let's just say I

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Speaker 1: know a guy who knows a guy who knows another guy.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's welcome into straight Fire a guest who

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Speaker 1: is a professional gambler. He has created a what appears

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Speaker 1: to be a pretty cool website that can help kind

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Speaker 1: of gamblers put together I guess algorithms. I'm gonna be

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Speaker 1: talking to somebody, probably the first time ever on this

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Speaker 1: podcast who's smarter than me, even though we did have

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Speaker 1: his friend Preston Johnson on here. But Rufus Peabody, co

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Speaker 1: founder of Unabated Sports, a graduate of Yale University. Rufus,

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Speaker 1: how are you, man? I'm good. Thanks for having me. Jason, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: thanks for coming on. You do a podcast also with

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Speaker 1: Jeff ma A. I would call him a former friend

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Speaker 1: of my old radio show, but he all of a

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Speaker 1: sudden stopped talking me to me, returning my text. But you,

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Speaker 1: you guys do a podcast that I try to listen

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Speaker 1: to during football season. That's pretty good. It's it's strictly

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Speaker 1: by the numbers gambling, right, There's no emotions to it,

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Speaker 1: um And that's the kind of thing I like about you.

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Speaker 1: You're not emotional at all. Like I could ask you

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Speaker 1: about like the Kansas City Chief secondary and your response

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Speaker 1: would be, I don't know I am an emotional person.

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Speaker 1: I just do not treat my betting in an emotional way.

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Speaker 1: That's difficult, is it not. I mean, for instance, you're

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Speaker 1: a huge golf gambler, right and uh and and I

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Speaker 1: don't just mean like you're a big gambler, like you

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Speaker 1: move markets and I Preston's told me all the great stories.

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Speaker 1: I don't know how much you want to talk about that,

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Speaker 1: but um, are you emotional when you follow your golf beds?

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Speaker 1: You know? It's honestly, it's been kind of a journey

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Speaker 1: over the years because I've been betting for living for

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Speaker 1: twelve years, and and there's at the beginning, Um, I definitely,

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Speaker 1: I guess got higher and lower than I do now.

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Speaker 1: And so it takes a lot, I guess for me

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Speaker 1: to to really get down due to my betting. But

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Speaker 1: it can happen. You know, we're all humans. So I

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Speaker 1: try to. I mean, there's weeks I don't even really

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Speaker 1: look at what's going on, and I just see at

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Speaker 1: the end. But I mean, I love golf too though,

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Speaker 1: so I kind of like, you know, I like having

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Speaker 1: a sweat on Sunday, having a guy in the mix

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Speaker 1: um on the back nine, and and well then I

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Speaker 1: watched him implode if it's this year, So so you

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Speaker 1: hosted I, from what I heard, a pretty good golf

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Speaker 1: event over this past weekend in Vegas. You care to

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Speaker 1: talk about that? Did you dominate people on the golf

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Speaker 1: course or it was myself, Jeff Ma, Shane Sigsby who's

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Speaker 1: a plus three point three handicap, he's really really good,

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Speaker 1: um and another another guy, and uh we it was

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Speaker 1: more just Jeff and I are playing a match, which

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Speaker 1: we talked about a lot, and and Jeff and I

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Speaker 1: had never actually played golf together before. I think I was.

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Speaker 1: I played with a seven point six condycap. Jeff played too,

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Speaker 1: I think at nineteen. But okay, you know, we we

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Speaker 1: it was fun. We uh we had a hundred dollars

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Speaker 1: on front, nine hundred back nine two hundred overall. I

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Speaker 1: shot one over on the front and six. It was

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Speaker 1: Matchically I was up six and and he had pressed

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Speaker 1: a bunch of times too, So basically Jeff um won

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Speaker 1: had been five hundred on the back just so if

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Speaker 1: he wanted the back he'd break even. He did win

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Speaker 1: the back, but I pressed a little bit at the end,

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Speaker 1: so I went and ended up holding a twelve foot

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Speaker 1: part pot on on eighteen too sort of clinched these

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Speaker 1: press bets, and so I came out three hundred dollars

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Speaker 1: ahead and I won the match. So I'm happy to

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Speaker 1: say that I want to know against Jeff. So, how

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Speaker 1: are you able to play so much golf? Um? Well,

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Speaker 1: you know that's the one sport I just I can't

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Speaker 1: really get into. It's like a four or five hour ordeal. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know that's like calf your day. I mean, you

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Speaker 1: do you gamble in all sports? Right? How are you

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Speaker 1: able to find time to play golf? Not everything? I

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Speaker 1: mean right now, I'm I'm doing more golf than anything else,

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Speaker 1: and I'm doing football. But but I don't do I

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Speaker 1: don't do college basketball, don't do NBA, don't do NHL,

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Speaker 1: and I quit doing Major League baseball because the thing is,

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Speaker 1: it's it's harder and harder to win in sports betting. Now. Um,

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Speaker 1: there's more data available, there's I mean, Mark, I firmly

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Speaker 1: believe markets tend toward efficiency, and that's the case with

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Speaker 1: sports betting markets, and so I feel like, in a way,

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Speaker 1: I'm better off being essentially expanding my network and avenues

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Speaker 1: to get down in the sport that I'm the best

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Speaker 1: at than I am, and trying to be pretty good

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Speaker 1: at a bunch of sports, which is you know, for

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Speaker 1: a while, I I you know, I mean, it's still

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Speaker 1: a lot college football, NFL and golf. It's it's a

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Speaker 1: lot of time, and as a result, I don't actually

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Speaker 1: get out on the golf course much. I've played twice

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Speaker 1: in the last month. There's certain times of the year

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Speaker 1: where I can and certain times you were when I

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Speaker 1: can't in football season. Um, you know, it is really tough,

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Speaker 1: especially right now with the innovated launch too. So so

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Speaker 1: we'll get to the site in a second. I just

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Speaker 1: want to know. I tried to find a profile of

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Speaker 1: you online. It really isn't one. But what is a

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Speaker 1: really super smart dude who goes to Yale why get

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Speaker 1: involved in sports gambling of all things? So how did

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Speaker 1: that happen? You know, it happened by accident, Jason. I'm

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Speaker 1: I've always loved the numbers side of sports. In fact,

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Speaker 1: I like read baseball box scores in first grade when

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Speaker 1: I didn't even I don't even know if I knew

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Speaker 1: how to read yet, but I love I love the numbers,

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Speaker 1: and and I ended up talking my way into an

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Speaker 1: internship with Las Vegas Sports Consultants when I was in college,

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Speaker 1: and it actually got Yale University to pay for it

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Speaker 1: because I was gonna study. I was gonna do something,

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Speaker 1: a senior thesis on um preserving the integrity and amateur

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Speaker 1: athletics or something like that, and uh, you know, with

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Speaker 1: with college sports, and and I ended up I ended

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Speaker 1: up doing a senior thesis on psychological inefficiencies in the

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Speaker 1: baseball betting market, and and took a job working for

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Speaker 1: LVSC for dollars a year out of college. But but

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Speaker 1: I loved it. It It was like academia for sports. Really

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Speaker 1: it was. I was surrounded by a bunch of people

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Speaker 1: who loved this stuff. Um had been doing it for years.

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Speaker 1: I just I learned so much, and I know I

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Speaker 1: was betting on the side, building my own models as well,

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Speaker 1: and made connections, met the right people, met some group

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Speaker 1: that was willing to take a chance on on on me,

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Speaker 1: gave me a free roll for the two thousand nine

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Speaker 1: baseball season, and and you know it's that. The rest

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Speaker 1: is history. I guess I've been betting for a living

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Speaker 1: ever since. But I never anticipated being a professional gambler,

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Speaker 1: just for the audience who was probably curious, do do

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Speaker 1: you care to say how much the free role was

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Speaker 1: or even ballpark it? Or do you not put numbers

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Speaker 1: of networms? Wow? And then of course I'm assuming you

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Speaker 1: crushed it right. Well the first yeah, we had, we

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Speaker 1: had a nice run at the at the beginning of

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Speaker 1: the season, and after a month I had made basically

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Speaker 1: the equivalent of my yearly salary. And obviously, and these

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Speaker 1: guys were like, why the hell are you still working there?

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Speaker 1: You're making the lines sharper um, you know, and and

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Speaker 1: and so I it took probably longer than I should

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Speaker 1: to sort of decide to quit, but I eventually did,

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Speaker 1: and it was a great decision obviously. Yeah, So now

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Speaker 1: you we taught we have people on who you know,

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Speaker 1: get frustrated with the industry and you can't get down

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Speaker 1: as much money and they're the runners and all this, Um,

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Speaker 1: how are you handling all this? Because I'm assuming you know,

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Speaker 1: Jeff Maud had been on my show and he tells

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Speaker 1: me he's banned banned from poker. Uh, he can't play

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Speaker 1: poker in Vegas in certain places. Are you able to

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Speaker 1: just easily bet or do you have to get creative.

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Speaker 1: It depends on the shop. I mean, I get frustrated

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Speaker 1: just like the next sharp about it. UM the you know,

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Speaker 1: all shot books like that Chris Pinnacle um are they

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Speaker 1: tend to take action for every buddy and including sharps

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Speaker 1: and and they their market making books. They take a

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Speaker 1: bet and move a line and as a result, I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's why that's why you see all these US operators

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Speaker 1: and and and paper heads and basically UM software books

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Speaker 1: copying those numbers because they know that the sharps have

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Speaker 1: essentially bet into those numbers and the process of price

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Speaker 1: discovery has moved that number to uh efficient price or

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Speaker 1: more of the most efficient price out there. And so

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Speaker 1: UM I've had my struggles of course with with US

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Speaker 1: books and getting limited just you know, and so there's

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Speaker 1: I mean, is a professional better. You definitely have to

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Speaker 1: be a little bit creative and and a lot of

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Speaker 1: it is having partners UM both in the US Europe

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Speaker 1: UM who are able to get down and you have

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Speaker 1: agreements where you're sharing the equity and that's UM, that's legal,

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Speaker 1: and it's you know, I think it's it's the best

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Speaker 1: way that it's the way, it's the way you kind

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Speaker 1: of have to do it. But so um for instance

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Speaker 1: and fell week four. Um, some of the lines are

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Speaker 1: moving and it's it's interesting. Let's just take Green Bay Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 1: So Circa, which everybody considers one of the sharper books

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Speaker 1: in Vegas, would you agree or definitely? They will take anybody,

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Speaker 1: and they move based on who you are and how

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Speaker 1: much you're betting. So so they have green Bay six

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Speaker 1: and a half over Pittsburgh. Other places have started to

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Speaker 1: move it seven even six and a half with some juice.

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Speaker 1: So what does it mean that Circa hasn't bumped up yet?

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Speaker 1: For for the lay person? Does that mean that maybe

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Speaker 1: Circas knows they can't go to seven because all the

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Speaker 1: sharps will come in at seven on Pittsburgh. It may

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Speaker 1: mean they have some they've seen some sharp action on

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Speaker 1: Pittsburg and they have a bit of an opinion Circus

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Speaker 1: willing to take a bit of an opinion some you know,

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Speaker 1: occasionally the market. If you see the market for let's

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Speaker 1: say a college football totals, you know, fifty six and

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Speaker 1: a half at a bunch of places, and it's fifty

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Speaker 1: seven and a half, it it's Circa. Um, you can

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Speaker 1: bet they probably got a bet from someone they respect

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Speaker 1: who's a long term winner, UM on that over and

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Speaker 1: they moved it. And so I would say that that

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Speaker 1: I mean they have got nactional they respect on Pittsburgh

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Speaker 1: where they have an opinion there and are willing to

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Speaker 1: to take bets there. So and so tell me about

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Speaker 1: your site, unabated and how it factors into all this,

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Speaker 1: because like, you know, not a lot. Listen, you know

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Speaker 1: the sports fans uh rufus, they're not the smartest dudes, right,

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Speaker 1: there's not They're not out here building models. Okay, you

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Speaker 1: understand that. Um, you know there's fans short for fanatic.

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Speaker 1: You know these guys are building models. But your site

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Speaker 1: can kind of sort of help these guys, right, Yeah.

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Speaker 1: So basically our goal with the site is to um

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Speaker 1: in a way allow people to quantify their opinions and

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Speaker 1: and sports betting is supposed to be fun, and you're right,

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Speaker 1: not everybody's gonna be a professional and not everybody's building

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Speaker 1: their own models. But I mean, think about why people

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Speaker 1: play fantasy football. It's not to win some champ it's

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Speaker 1: what's to win the week championship, have brag rights over

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Speaker 1: the friends, but it's it's the game of it. And

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Speaker 1: to me, I mean, I've always what I love about

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Speaker 1: sports betting isn't the money. It's it's the competition. It's

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Speaker 1: being able to It's I have a scoreboard at the

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Speaker 1: end of the day, I I won or I lost,

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Speaker 1: and and I tracked my profit and loss and I

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Speaker 1: have a return like r O I. And it is

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Speaker 1: essentially a way to validate if I'm good at this

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Speaker 1: or not, if my opinions are good for in my case,

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Speaker 1: it's my models. But UM, I believe you're right. Sports

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Speaker 1: fans are fanatics, and they believe they have opinions about

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Speaker 1: their teams and other teams. And so we have a

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Speaker 1: product UM an NFL simulator that allows you to use

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Speaker 1: your own NFL Power ratings or a bunch of publicly

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Speaker 1: available systems that we have such as ESPN, s FPI,

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Speaker 1: Pro Football Focus, UM Number Fire team rankings, and and

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Speaker 1: you know, if you have your own you can upload that.

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Speaker 1: But um, you can use these sort of as a

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Speaker 1: starting point and essentially run simulations. UM. They're you know,

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Speaker 1: you can customize things. UM, you can say I think

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Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson has a seven percent chance of getting injured

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Speaker 1: each game, I wonder what that does to the to

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Speaker 1: the Ravens in their chances of winning the division, are

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Speaker 1: making Super Bowl, and so UM you can you can say,

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Speaker 1: I think Seattle has a greater home field advantage. I

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Speaker 1: want to set that number up. UM. You can even

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Speaker 1: change UM dynamic uncertainty, which is basically how UM, how

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Speaker 1: a team's rating evolves over time. So let's say, going

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Speaker 1: into this season, I think it's probably was probably fair

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Speaker 1: to say that there was more uncertainty with the Jacksonville Jaguars,

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Speaker 1: with Urban Meyer going from college to the NFL, UM

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Speaker 1: a rookie quarterback and Trevor Lawrence. You know, maybe Lawrence

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Speaker 1: that's the league on fire. Maybe he had struggles, which

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Speaker 1: is what has happened. Right Like, They're a team that

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Speaker 1: you didn't really know who they were as much, whereas

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Speaker 1: there are other teams kind of as as Denny Green said,

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Speaker 1: you know, we are who they thought they were, and

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Speaker 1: so there are teams that you can be a little

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Speaker 1: more certain of who they are going into the season. UM,

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Speaker 1: maybe the New York Giants, for example, a lot of

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Speaker 1: the same guys UM. Daniel Jones has already had had

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Speaker 1: some time UM. And so basically you could, so you

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Speaker 1: can ratchet that up or down. We we have it.

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Speaker 1: It's sort of the optimal UM. But what I found

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Speaker 1: to be the optimal UM using you know, data analytics.

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Speaker 1: But if you think UM for for all teams, but

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Speaker 1: you can you can modify that and so the point

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Speaker 1: and then you can run these simulations. See me that

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Speaker 1: the rest of the season UM you get projected win

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Speaker 1: totals UM odds to win the division, the conference, the

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Speaker 1: super Bowl, and it integrates with an odd screen and

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Speaker 1: a pinpoint where you have value based on your simulation.

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Speaker 1: So you can start with one of these power rating

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Speaker 1: systems and then say, you know, I don't think UM.

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Speaker 1: You know, I think Tampa Bay is better than they think.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna bump them up. And so it's it's kind

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Speaker 1: of fun to tinker with it and fun to but

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Speaker 1: but but shouldn't we not? Like who cares what Joe

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Speaker 1: Bob thinks about Tampa Bay? Like, let's just tell what

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Speaker 1: the computer doesn't you know, doesn't doesn't Joe Bob care? Right,

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Speaker 1: but in terms of gambling and winning, like I want

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Speaker 1: to hear what the computers numbers say. For instance, this week,

424
00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:49,560
Speaker 1: right Tampa Bay against UM, that goes back to face Belichick.

425
00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:52,240
Speaker 1: And like everybody and their mom thinks Brady is gonna

426
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 1: kick Belichick's as he's got pay back, blah blah blah.

427
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 1: But I don't what do we know? Like I, you know,

428
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:02,920
Speaker 1: I don't think anybody, no Joe, no person out there

429
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:05,679
Speaker 1: has any intel on that. Right. Shouldn't we trust the

430
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:08,240
Speaker 1: computer more? Well? I mean I I certainly do. But

431
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:11,280
Speaker 1: there's different computer models out there and so and you

432
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:13,000
Speaker 1: can do that. You can say I want to use

433
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:15,280
Speaker 1: you know, the massy pebody model, which is which is

434
00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:17,280
Speaker 1: the system I have? You can say I want to

435
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:19,120
Speaker 1: you know, maybe you want to wait that with yes,

436
00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:23,560
Speaker 1: with FPI, ESPN's NFL FPI, or or you could average

437
00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:25,600
Speaker 1: a bunch of them together, a bunch of these computer

438
00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:29,119
Speaker 1: models together. Um. And and the interesting thing with this

439
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:32,800
Speaker 1: too is that, uh, you know, normally, if you know,

440
00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:37,080
Speaker 1: if I use um a market number, I would never

441
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:40,439
Speaker 1: show value on a game, right basically the market imploy

442
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:43,359
Speaker 1: the market says right now that you know Pittsburgh is

443
00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 1: a six and a half to a seven point out

444
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,399
Speaker 1: a dr de green Bay. Um. But you could use

445
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:51,360
Speaker 1: essentially market number and still show value on futures because Um,

446
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,200
Speaker 1: I mean that's the power of the simulator here. I

447
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 1: mean we're able to quantify by the uncertainty in a

448
00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:00,639
Speaker 1: team's rating and how that rating changes over time. You know,

449
00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:04,160
Speaker 1: it's just because the just because with certain teams six

450
00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 1: points better than another team right now doesn't mean that's

451
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,120
Speaker 1: what they'll be at the end of the season. They

452
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 1: there's you know, injuries happen, Um, teams get better or worse. Right,

453
00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 1: I mean, Belichick's teams over the years New England always

454
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:19,720
Speaker 1: started slow. And I think there's this notion that Belichick

455
00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 1: experimented a little bit earlier in the season and saw

456
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:24,920
Speaker 1: it worked and and they and then they always played

457
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:26,440
Speaker 1: better late in the year. And I mean maybe that's

458
00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:28,479
Speaker 1: a Brady thing, who knows, but not a Belichick thing.

459
00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:31,439
Speaker 1: But um, but does the teams of ratings evolve and

460
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:34,200
Speaker 1: so it's a way to you, you know, it's a

461
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:36,720
Speaker 1: way to find value, um And sort of, h I

462
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:39,879
Speaker 1: guess it's a derivative market in the sense. Yeah, I

463
00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:42,399
Speaker 1: just wonder because you know, you know, I do some

464
00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:44,399
Speaker 1: of these TV shows and then the former athletes took

465
00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:46,600
Speaker 1: come out and be like any time you hit him

466
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:49,240
Speaker 1: with some numbers that that that disagrees with the argument.

467
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:51,480
Speaker 1: They're like, well, you know, when I played, and that's

468
00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:53,359
Speaker 1: like the check. Please, like hey, when I played, Like

469
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:55,920
Speaker 1: you know, you could come to me and say, hey, uh,

470
00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:59,160
Speaker 1: you know, Andy reid Off, a bye week is incredible. Well,

471
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:01,400
Speaker 1: Andy read it's a timber all these numbers and they're

472
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:05,920
Speaker 1: one and two. But for futures market and values, would

473
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:08,880
Speaker 1: you agree that now the Kansas City Chiefs having lost two,

474
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 1: they've covered twice in their last fourteen or something insane?

475
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:14,920
Speaker 1: Don't you think there's now futures value on Kansas City

476
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 1: or do any of your models show that? UM? I don't, actually,

477
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 1: I oh, I think there's more value on a team

478
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:24,639
Speaker 1: like UM, like the Raiders. I mean I think, I mean, well,

479
00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:26,399
Speaker 1: I don't think they. I don't think the Raiders are

480
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:28,240
Speaker 1: more like you know, I don't think that. I don't

481
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:29,760
Speaker 1: think the Raiders are a better team or anything. But

482
00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:34,399
Speaker 1: Kansas City is is two games behind. UM, there are

483
00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 1: two games behind, well, there are two games behind two

484
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:38,920
Speaker 1: teams in one game behind another team, and so they've

485
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:40,600
Speaker 1: done themselves a bit of a hole. There's a there's

486
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:42,199
Speaker 1: a lot of time to come back. But they you know,

487
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,119
Speaker 1: they certainly have to be Um, they're gonna have to

488
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 1: you know, I don't want to say be perfect, but

489
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 1: but be a little bit better. But of course there's

490
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 1: still I mean, the thing is there, there's such a

491
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:53,960
Speaker 1: public team that that I don't think their odds are

492
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 1: going to drop enough. So UM, in the simulations I

493
00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,159
Speaker 1: just ran today using the massive Peabody numbers, and and

494
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:04,600
Speaker 1: this is just this is my uh my quantitative system.

495
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:07,280
Speaker 1: It's you know, it's not the Gospel or anything like that.

496
00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:09,560
Speaker 1: It's you know, you should probably average it with a

497
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 1: regress it to a market number as well. But but

498
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:13,439
Speaker 1: I make the Chiefs of fourteen to fourteen to one

499
00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:16,040
Speaker 1: win the Super Bowl. Looks like Circa has seven to one.

500
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,159
Speaker 1: UM if I if I ran it, let's see I

501
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:22,160
Speaker 1: can compare. I ran some simulations with some other systems

502
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 1: UM using Pro football focuses, UM power ratings, Pro Football

503
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:29,920
Speaker 1: Focus actually still shows value shows value on the Chiefs.

504
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 1: They make them five point seven to one and so

505
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:36,400
Speaker 1: UM And then what do you think is the big disconnect?

506
00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:38,160
Speaker 1: Why are you guys so low on them just because

507
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:40,239
Speaker 1: their defense has been awful this year? The numbers are

508
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 1: that bad or their defense has been very bad. I

509
00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:44,480
Speaker 1: think that is going to be the thing that hurts them.

510
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:46,520
Speaker 1: Like I think they have an elite offense. I'm not.

511
00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:49,240
Speaker 1: I'm not doubting that. But if you look at um

512
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:51,880
Speaker 1: how their defense is performed right now I have them,

513
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:55,399
Speaker 1: they've been eight percentile Like basically, think of it as

514
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:58,119
Speaker 1: a grade zero to one. They graded. It's like eight

515
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:02,399
Speaker 1: UM on rushing defense, two on passing defense, six on

516
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:06,920
Speaker 1: play success and UM and thirteen on scoring efficiency. So

517
00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:10,520
Speaker 1: basically they're they're at the bottom of the bottom. Um,

518
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 1: what is more predictive defense? Offense or defense? Going forward

519
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:17,720
Speaker 1: to sea and so Kansas City can have if they

520
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 1: have the worst defense in the league, in the best

521
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 1: offense in the league, they're still gonna be a very

522
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:24,399
Speaker 1: good team. And honestly, right now it's fairly close to that.

523
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 1: You know, Yeah, I want to ask, like the word

524
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 1: predictive is the big thing because listen, Rufus, you know

525
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 1: that gambling is huge now among TV networks, and anybody

526
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 1: with a pulse has a take on a on a game,

527
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:42,399
Speaker 1: but nobody really has predictive models. I don't know, do

528
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:46,240
Speaker 1: you do you value other than Massy peabody football outsiders?

529
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:48,480
Speaker 1: I don't know who where do you see the most

530
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 1: value and how did they How can anybody listening to

531
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:54,520
Speaker 1: this put it into unabated and come up with the

532
00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 1: best numbers. Well, first off, the NFL is very tough

533
00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:59,399
Speaker 1: to win in. Yes, it's and so I have a

534
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 1: lot less ustin in my NFL numbers than I do

535
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 1: for other sports. And so um, So for the NFL,

536
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:06,280
Speaker 1: it is something where I will look at some other

537
00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:09,840
Speaker 1: systems other you know, like for example and ESPNS f

538
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 1: P I. UM, I know the guys that behind building that,

539
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:16,679
Speaker 1: and I know that there's they're using, they're incorporating some

540
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 1: of these UM metrics based on stats I don't even

541
00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 1: have access to with the next gen and think they

542
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 1: have the past blocking win rates and things like that,

543
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:27,960
Speaker 1: and so um, you know, I might look and see

544
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,080
Speaker 1: that they're also on the same side as me or something.

545
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:34,200
Speaker 1: And so that is which which I'm not going to

546
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,200
Speaker 1: be doing for something like golf for college football as much,

547
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 1: where I have a little bit more uh trust because

548
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:43,680
Speaker 1: the market those markets aren't quite as efficient. But um

549
00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 1: but but for example, for the simulator, you can um

550
00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:50,760
Speaker 1: you can average these different models and and and basically

551
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:52,919
Speaker 1: get a sense of I guess what the computers overall

552
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:56,240
Speaker 1: are saying. I do wonder like it sounds smart, it

553
00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:58,439
Speaker 1: sounds awesome, it sounds like it's a great tool. But

554
00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:01,359
Speaker 1: we know, we just talked about sports fans. You know,

555
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 1: these are guys who are largely eating cheetos and drinking

556
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 1: beer on the couch. Are they going to be putting

557
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 1: all these numbers in to help themselves or do you

558
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:11,040
Speaker 1: think ultimately like that's a struggle to convert people to

559
00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:13,159
Speaker 1: something that they're gonna help them. It's a I mean,

560
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 1: it's a good point, like people. The problem I think

561
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:21,560
Speaker 1: right now is in this space. Um, the picks really

562
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:25,200
Speaker 1: drive context a lot, and people want to be given

563
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:28,640
Speaker 1: the answer rather than be Um. I guess people want

564
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 1: to be given a fish rather than to be rather

565
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 1: than be taught how to fish. And so that's I mean,

566
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:39,280
Speaker 1: I don't think we're necessarily for everyone, but I think, um,

567
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:41,600
Speaker 1: what we what we want to do is help someone,

568
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:44,800
Speaker 1: UM kind of get move up the ladder. Um. And

569
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:48,680
Speaker 1: and I don't want to say like say, lose less,

570
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 1: but um, we have tools that are going to help you,

571
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 1: um trim that house edge. Um, we have derivative trading

572
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 1: tools where you can say, you know, I see that. Um,

573
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:01,040
Speaker 1: this one book offers minus too and a half minus

574
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:03,479
Speaker 1: one fifteen on this game, and another book is minus

575
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:06,960
Speaker 1: three even money. Which is the better price? Um? I

576
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,960
Speaker 1: you know do I would rather bet minus seven for

577
00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 1: the game or minus three and a half of the

578
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:14,360
Speaker 1: first half if I like this team and so um,

579
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 1: and you can price out the riveted markets. You know,

580
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:18,160
Speaker 1: if a team is pick, what's the what's the probability

581
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:21,200
Speaker 1: of covering plus fourteen and a half? You know, alternate side,

582
00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 1: alternate totals and and be able to trim down the

583
00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:26,400
Speaker 1: house edge that way, or even just find things where

584
00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 1: things are blatantly mispriced, which happens all the time. If

585
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 1: these u S books, because they have so much surface area,

586
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 1: they have to defend because they offer so many different markets,

587
00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 1: and and it's impossible to price them all price them

588
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:40,880
Speaker 1: all well. So, but but to your question, you know

589
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 1: Joe public, Joe publicly, well, if if he has an opinion,

590
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:48,800
Speaker 1: he you know, he might and your I mean, if

591
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 1: he likes the Browns and thinks they're the best team

592
00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 1: in the NFL, UM, maybe you know he could essentially

593
00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 1: use that his rating on the Browns he probably doesn't

594
00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 1: have a rating them and sort of quantifies opinion with

595
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:05,800
Speaker 1: that simulator. But UM, but I think our target audience

596
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 1: is someone that that is I guess, I don't want

597
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:12,400
Speaker 1: to say a little more sophisticated, but that someone that

598
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 1: that kind of wants to grow. And and how how

599
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:18,720
Speaker 1: did you identify that target audience? UM? Sorry, what do

600
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:21,239
Speaker 1: you mean by that? Like? How did you guys find out, like,

601
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 1: here's who we are targeting, and then how did you

602
00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 1: build their profile? So I thought about building products for that.

603
00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 1: I would want to use UM as a better that

604
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:35,080
Speaker 1: and and and that I thought, would I guess a

605
00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 1: better that is looking to improve UM would be able

606
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 1: to sort of plug in, like I guess, create an

607
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 1: infrastructure for them to use their own UM numbers or

608
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 1: other numbers out there, and to essentially be able to

609
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 1: do things with that to be able to quantify their opinion.

610
00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:54,720
Speaker 1: So UM and you know, we'll we'll see if it works.

611
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:59,000
Speaker 1: I think that the I've been really overwhelmed by the

612
00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 1: support we've gotten so far and and how many people

613
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:04,400
Speaker 1: have found it really useful. UM. And so I didn't

614
00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 1: I honestly didn't know what to expect exactly because you know.

615
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:09,960
Speaker 1: But the thing is we are different. There's all this

616
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 1: content out there that is UM that is targeted. Well,

617
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:18,720
Speaker 1: I guess that is targeting UM a different segment of

618
00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:20,560
Speaker 1: the population. What would you want to call it? The

619
00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 1: lowest common denomena? It is And that's a really good

620
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:25,480
Speaker 1: way of putting in Jason, because you know, when I

621
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 1: did stuff at ESPN, that's basically what we had to do,

622
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:29,560
Speaker 1: and same with with Jeff, like we had to target

623
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 1: the lowest common denominator UM on our segments. And so

624
00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:35,960
Speaker 1: you are, I think the way the world is going

625
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 1: now though you see more and more niche sites pop up,

626
00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:41,480
Speaker 1: you know, because people have different inches. Not everybody wants

627
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 1: the same thing, and certainly our site isn't for everybody.

628
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,280
Speaker 1: But if you want to become a better, better and

629
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 1: get the most out of your sports betting, I mean,

630
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:53,080
Speaker 1: I think it's fantastic. We have a big education component. UM.

631
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 1: Captain Jack is one of our co founders. He's UM

632
00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 1: kind of been this huge advocate for there's on on

633
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 1: Twitter and I gotta ask quickly about it. But I

634
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 1: want to go back to something you said, UM, like

635
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 1: if I heard somebody talk about this, where like if

636
00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:08,320
Speaker 1: you want to. If you want to be an average person,

637
00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 1: you walk through the airport, you look at the books

638
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:13,400
Speaker 1: that they're selling at the bookshop. Everybody's reading those books.

639
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:15,600
Speaker 1: If you want to be average, go read those books. Now.

640
00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 1: If you don't want to be average, you want to

641
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:19,480
Speaker 1: be smarter, you want to be next level, you'll be creative.

642
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:22,240
Speaker 1: You gotta go find other stuff that's really going to

643
00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:24,560
Speaker 1: push the envelope. And I think that's kind of what

644
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 1: unabated is doing, right because I mean, anybody could go

645
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:30,440
Speaker 1: to ESPN and all these other websites and find generic

646
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 1: stuff and like, oh yeah, I think this is a good,

647
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:34,560
Speaker 1: great call. But if you want to go next level,

648
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 1: I think you kind of got to incorporate what you're

649
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 1: talking about, right, yeah. And you know we're just we're

650
00:32:41,080 --> 00:32:42,960
Speaker 1: just getting started here. I have so many ideas for

651
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:45,120
Speaker 1: products and and I do want to have stuff where

652
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:49,400
Speaker 1: that helps people build their own models. Where down the line,

653
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:51,640
Speaker 1: I mean, if I can convince that my other co

654
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:54,200
Speaker 1: founders that this is that this would actually be popular,

655
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:56,080
Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, you know too, where where

656
00:32:56,080 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 1: someone we could host a model someone says I want

657
00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 1: to I want my modeled factor in these such and

658
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:03,760
Speaker 1: such stats and I want to you know, I want

659
00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:06,160
Speaker 1: to eliminate Week three and four for this team because

660
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:09,280
Speaker 1: they had all these injuries and you know, basically figure

661
00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:11,440
Speaker 1: out what how how I priced that? So you're right,

662
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:13,920
Speaker 1: I mean, that's certainly not something that is going to

663
00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:17,200
Speaker 1: appeal to the average better. But um, but we do

664
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 1: have a lot of things that are I think will

665
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:24,240
Speaker 1: also target basically and I mean will help any better. Um.

666
00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:27,680
Speaker 1: For example, you know how there's I mean, unless you're

667
00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 1: living under rock, you've seen all these commercials for operators

668
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:34,000
Speaker 1: for sports books that are all and all the risk

669
00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 1: free bets and risk free bets which aren't actually risk

670
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:40,160
Speaker 1: free by the way, But there doesn't things a risk

671
00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:44,400
Speaker 1: free bet. Oh it's true. Um, but they're they're fantastic

672
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 1: deals for better though, but a lot of betters don't

673
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 1: know the right way to maximize the value from it.

674
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 1: And it's you know, betting an underdog on a risk

675
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:53,040
Speaker 1: free bet is much better because you do not get

676
00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 1: your original stake bet back. And so we have you know,

677
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 1: we have an article about that and how to sort

678
00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:59,719
Speaker 1: of maximize that and actually you know, and actually make

679
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:01,040
Speaker 1: it free if you sign up at a bunch of

680
00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:02,760
Speaker 1: different books and you can bet one side at one

681
00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:06,000
Speaker 1: one side of the other, um, if you want. But so,

682
00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:08,600
Speaker 1: I mean there we definitely do have content geared towards

683
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:11,279
Speaker 1: educating vetters and sort of helping them move up that

684
00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:15,240
Speaker 1: ladder of sharpness, if you will. We had Darren ravel

685
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:18,320
Speaker 1: on from Action Network was Captain Jack previously at the

686
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:21,719
Speaker 1: Action Network. It was not. No, Oh okay, I thought

687
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:23,840
Speaker 1: he might have been. But UM, I'm curious as to

688
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:26,759
Speaker 1: your thoughts on all these like you know, the the

689
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:29,719
Speaker 1: gambling cottage industry where there are a bunch of websites

690
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 1: and there everybody's putting out picks and then you've got

691
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:35,360
Speaker 1: guys on social media freaking out about it and mostly anonymous.

692
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:38,359
Speaker 1: How do you stay above the frame? Me personally, I

693
00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:40,759
Speaker 1: just block a lot of these as clowns. Um. But

694
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:44,279
Speaker 1: I don't know, like whether you care about that and

695
00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:46,440
Speaker 1: all these other sites that are popping up and trends

696
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:50,160
Speaker 1: and all that fun stuff. So, I mean, I'm not

697
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:53,239
Speaker 1: a huge proponent of especially pick selling. Um. I think

698
00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:56,359
Speaker 1: it's you know, I think that there issues, they're big

699
00:34:56,400 --> 00:34:59,480
Speaker 1: issues with with that, and I've been pretty vocal about it. Yeah,

700
00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:02,560
Speaker 1: what but you know, on Twitter, I've gotten blowback. I

701
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:05,400
Speaker 1: feel like I've gotten blowback from people that sell picks

702
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:08,080
Speaker 1: that that are accusing me of being anti like too

703
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:10,759
Speaker 1: anti talent, And I've gotten blowback from people that are

704
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 1: really anti talent and say, I'm I'm giving touts too

705
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:16,279
Speaker 1: much of the platform, so you can't win. I think

706
00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:18,960
Speaker 1: in the long run, you just have to, Um, you

707
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:22,040
Speaker 1: have to do you and and like I'm my own

708
00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:25,880
Speaker 1: harshest critic and honestly, Jason, the experience for me on Twitter,

709
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:28,759
Speaker 1: I mean, I guess I have a decent number of

710
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:31,359
Speaker 1: followers now, um, I'm trying, never expected to have. But

711
00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:36,080
Speaker 1: but the experience of of like I guess, getting feedback

712
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:39,400
Speaker 1: with positive and negative from people all the time, um,

713
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 1: is one that was that was difficult because it's hard

714
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:43,960
Speaker 1: not to like internalize it to some degree, but you know,

715
00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:47,840
Speaker 1: it's actually helped. But going through that experience has gotten

716
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 1: me to a point now where I'm like really accept

717
00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:52,680
Speaker 1: myself and I'm comfortable with myself and I'm and if

718
00:35:52,680 --> 00:35:54,320
Speaker 1: someone gives me, if someone is an askful to me,

719
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:58,400
Speaker 1: then you know what, it's fine. I mean, wait, hold on,

720
00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:00,879
Speaker 1: what what changed? Did you get married? You have kids?

721
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:04,479
Speaker 1: Now or what I don't, Um, I don't, But what's

722
00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 1: I mean? I've been working, like I'm I've been working

723
00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:09,799
Speaker 1: on myself, you know, over the last i'd say four

724
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:11,839
Speaker 1: or five years a lot and trying to I mean,

725
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:17,640
Speaker 1: I think living a life that that that is yours

726
00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:21,200
Speaker 1: and that I guess works for you is really important.

727
00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 1: I think tuning out. I don't want to look at

728
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:25,279
Speaker 1: age sixty five and say, why was I spending all

729
00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:26,960
Speaker 1: my time on this? Like I want to know what

730
00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:30,320
Speaker 1: knowing what makes you happy and and so for me, honestly,

731
00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 1: this sort of it's self acceptance. It's being like if

732
00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:36,600
Speaker 1: I can accept my weaknesses, if I if I'm open

733
00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:40,480
Speaker 1: about my weaknesses, my vulnerabilities, my insecurities, then nothing anybody

734
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:42,799
Speaker 1: else says can hurt me. Yeah, which is I mean?

735
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:45,040
Speaker 1: I like the attitude. I have seen it, you know,

736
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:48,520
Speaker 1: up close and personal. Ruined people who who care what

737
00:36:48,560 --> 00:36:51,440
Speaker 1: these jabrons have to say on social media because at

738
00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:52,719
Speaker 1: the end of the day, they don't have a wife

739
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:54,600
Speaker 1: to go home to, they don't have a sibling, they

740
00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:57,400
Speaker 1: don't have a um uh kids, they have nothing. They

741
00:36:57,440 --> 00:36:58,960
Speaker 1: go home to themselves and then they just look at

742
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,359
Speaker 1: Twitter for six hours and that'll fry your brain. That's

743
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 1: just not healthy. No, it's it's true. But you have

744
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 1: to I mean I think you have to. Um, yeah,

745
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:09,040
Speaker 1: you have to accept yourself though. I mean, I think

746
00:37:09,040 --> 00:37:11,320
Speaker 1: that's the key, and you have to. I mean, happiness

747
00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:14,160
Speaker 1: comes from within. If if if your happiness depends on

748
00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:17,200
Speaker 1: what people are saying about you on Twitter, then if

749
00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:20,040
Speaker 1: you're you're outsourcing, you don't have control over it. You're saying,

750
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:22,800
Speaker 1: I'm gonna let something else determine my happiness. It's outside

751
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:25,799
Speaker 1: of my control that that that's just you know, it's

752
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:27,560
Speaker 1: um all right, So why don't you get out We'll

753
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:29,800
Speaker 1: get out of here with if do you have a winner?

754
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:31,160
Speaker 1: You want to give us? What? It could be golf

755
00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:34,600
Speaker 1: next week? Uh, college football, NFL. And I know that

756
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 1: you're gonna balk at that, but well, uh, you know

757
00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:40,040
Speaker 1: the people you want to hear what rufus by the way,

758
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:43,040
Speaker 1: and a lot of people and I've heard, uh Jeff

759
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 1: Marges on corn Eyes or sometimes and I've heard corn

760
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:47,960
Speaker 1: Eyes ask is Rufus peabody your real name? Can I

761
00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 1: just ask that it is my real name? Okay? Because

762
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:51,560
Speaker 1: I know a lot of these gambling people come up

763
00:37:51,560 --> 00:37:54,640
Speaker 1: with fake names because they're sharp vetters or whatever they

764
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:58,680
Speaker 1: gotta hide. And you're from northern Virginia. Huh, I am,

765
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:00,880
Speaker 1: I am. I grew up Okay, your Virginia went to T. C.

766
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:03,399
Speaker 1: Williams High School. Yeah, I went to like Braddick, remember

767
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:06,520
Speaker 1: the Titans. Yeah, I didn't really know TC Williams. Yeah,

768
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:09,480
Speaker 1: so you're a little younger than I am, but I was. Yeah.

769
00:38:09,520 --> 00:38:11,360
Speaker 1: I ran cross country and track and we competed and

770
00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:14,000
Speaker 1: play tennis. We competed against like Braddick. You go to

771
00:38:14,040 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 1: tennis Patriot District. Apparently it's not the Patriot District, it's

772
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 1: not anymore. Wait, how good are you at tennis? Um?

773
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:21,960
Speaker 1: You know I don't play much anymore. I was you

774
00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:24,120
Speaker 1: were like a four? Oh or no? I don't even honestly,

775
00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:25,520
Speaker 1: I have no idea what I have on the ratings.

776
00:38:25,680 --> 00:38:28,440
Speaker 1: I mean I played, I played number four singles, I think.

777
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:30,320
Speaker 1: I mean I played Varsitale four years. But I wasn't

778
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:33,359
Speaker 1: Oh geez, I wasn't great. We we didn't want T. C. Williams, didn't,

779
00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:34,840
Speaker 1: you know, we guys didn't have a good to Robinson

780
00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:37,520
Speaker 1: was Robinson was good. They were our big rivals. Yes,

781
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:40,400
Speaker 1: all right, So back to your winner, um, college golf,

782
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:43,919
Speaker 1: please no w NBA. Though nobody wants to get down

783
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:45,560
Speaker 1: on that, even though there's a big edge there. Preston

784
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 1: says that all the all the time, I'll give you

785
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:51,359
Speaker 1: a college, I'll give you a college pick. Um. How

786
00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:54,160
Speaker 1: about a college and an NFL that then you know

787
00:38:54,200 --> 00:38:56,480
Speaker 1: people would love it more likely there's at least one winner.

788
00:38:56,680 --> 00:38:58,080
Speaker 1: And then when you and when you go to and

789
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:00,360
Speaker 1: oh people, you gotta get roof is back. Come on,

790
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:02,960
Speaker 1: but I'll tell you that. Look, I'm I'm giving out

791
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:06,399
Speaker 1: a pick which I expect. Like for example, this college pick,

792
00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:08,680
Speaker 1: I think he has a fifty percent chance of one,

793
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 1: which is a nice edge. That's you know, you can

794
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 1: make a lot of money with picks. You know you

795
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 1: can make a lot of money betting things with That's

796
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:22,120
Speaker 1: how it works, hopefully at Cincinnati. The Michigan State minus

797
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 1: ten and a half against Western Kentucky. Wow, and I

798
00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:27,640
Speaker 1: took Michigan State last week. They didn't cover it over time.

799
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:30,640
Speaker 1: I write that Kentucky has a new coach, offensive coordinator

800
00:39:30,640 --> 00:39:33,680
Speaker 1: and system. Um, But besides that, I can't tell you

801
00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 1: too much. They had an interception in overtime. The kid

802
00:39:36,680 --> 00:39:38,719
Speaker 1: almost ran it back for the cover and then he

803
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:40,560
Speaker 1: got tackled like the three and they just set over

804
00:39:40,600 --> 00:39:42,480
Speaker 1: the field goal. So I didn't get the cover last week,

805
00:39:42,520 --> 00:39:45,920
Speaker 1: bad bad bed and the NFL one. Yeah, you know what,

806
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:48,879
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the circle one. I'm gonna I'll

807
00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:52,080
Speaker 1: give you Pittsburgh here. I like six and a half,

808
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:55,320
Speaker 1: So any chance I think we'll see a seven A

809
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:57,879
Speaker 1: circle definitely not. I don't know it's circle. I mean

810
00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 1: I think line shopping is hugely important. Yeah, I have

811
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:03,319
Speaker 1: it in my spreadsheet written at six point seven. Five

812
00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:06,800
Speaker 1: is the current market because it's you know, it was

813
00:40:06,840 --> 00:40:09,359
Speaker 1: in between the six. Now f A all right, fine,

814
00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:13,280
Speaker 1: dumb question on Pittsburgh. Um, and I know the quarterbacks

815
00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:16,840
Speaker 1: matter more than anybody, but t J. Watt. Once he

816
00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:19,200
Speaker 1: left that game against the Raiders, they had no pass rush.

817
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:21,120
Speaker 1: He did not play last week. It was the first

818
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:23,799
Speaker 1: time they didn't have a sack in like seventy five games.

819
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:28,240
Speaker 1: Some ridiculous stat If he doesn't play against Aaron Rodgers,

820
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:33,080
Speaker 1: How does that matter at all to you? And this pick? Oh?

821
00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:36,239
Speaker 1: Of course it matters. Um. I can't say how to

822
00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:40,280
Speaker 1: quantify that exactly. I mean, um, teasing out the value

823
00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 1: of a of a player, like a defensive player. UM

824
00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:45,080
Speaker 1: in a system where there's a lot of moving parts

825
00:40:45,160 --> 00:40:48,120
Speaker 1: is very difficult, it really is, um, But of course

826
00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:54,880
Speaker 1: it matters, all right. He's Rufus Peabody genius from Yale. Um. So, Rufus,

827
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:56,600
Speaker 1: you'll never have to work a day job the rest

828
00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:58,480
Speaker 1: of your life right at this stage, given where you

829
00:40:58,480 --> 00:41:01,040
Speaker 1: are right now, right right, dude, that's awesome. But the

830
00:41:01,080 --> 00:41:03,319
Speaker 1: thing is, look, I mean I have innobated, I have

831
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:06,719
Speaker 1: some other things going on. I mean it's like it's

832
00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:10,479
Speaker 1: it's a grind, man. I have a lot already said

833
00:41:10,520 --> 00:41:14,040
Speaker 1: life was easy. If life were easy, we'd all we'd

834
00:41:14,040 --> 00:41:16,480
Speaker 1: all be doing what you're doing. Come on, and nothing's easy. Um.

835
00:41:16,520 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 1: We'll congrats on all your success man, and uh, you know,

836
00:41:19,200 --> 00:41:21,320
Speaker 1: keep up the good work. And I think unobated is

837
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:24,040
Speaker 1: a good product. I have already mentioned to a couple

838
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:27,400
Speaker 1: of friends. So, and it's free to use, right it is. Yeah,

839
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:29,400
Speaker 1: it's pretty cool, all right, man, Thanks a lot for

840
00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:31,720
Speaker 1: your time, Rufus. Thank you so much. Jason enjoyed it.

841
00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:35,239
Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in

842
00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:38,680
Speaker 1: the nation. Catch all of our shows at Fox Sports Radio.

843
00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:41,719
Speaker 1: Dot com and within the I Heart radio app search

844
00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:46,960
Speaker 1: f s R to listen live. The only thing better

845
00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:51,000
Speaker 1: than sitting on your couch watching the game. He's making

846
00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:57,279
Speaker 1: money while you do it. Here's your best bat tremendous

847
00:41:57,320 --> 00:42:01,200
Speaker 1: stuff from Rufus Peabody. Just an interesting I mean yale

848
00:42:02,800 --> 00:42:04,520
Speaker 1: or I don't want to say borderline genius. But he

849
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:08,040
Speaker 1: seems like he's really sharp, creating all these models to

850
00:42:08,080 --> 00:42:11,440
Speaker 1: win money at golf and NFL and now starting a

851
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:15,400
Speaker 1: website to kind of help us us little people. Um,

852
00:42:15,160 --> 00:42:19,239
Speaker 1: I'm impressive. Guy. Definitely not what I thought. Uh he

853
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:23,360
Speaker 1: would be, UM, because you know, would you listen to

854
00:42:23,360 --> 00:42:26,200
Speaker 1: the guy's podcast. He sounds like he's got an ego. UM,

855
00:42:26,280 --> 00:42:28,400
Speaker 1: and maybe that's their stick. They have like a funny

856
00:42:28,400 --> 00:42:31,279
Speaker 1: back and forth UM. And frankly, I haven't listened to

857
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:33,359
Speaker 1: it in a minute, so I don't know if he's

858
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:36,440
Speaker 1: the ego is is less than it used to be. Um.

859
00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:39,200
Speaker 1: But he's smart. He's smart, he's wealthy, and those guys

860
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:41,000
Speaker 1: tend to have egoes. Nothing wrong with that. I mean, now,

861
00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:43,719
Speaker 1: we all have egos. I just don't display mine on

862
00:42:43,760 --> 00:42:45,600
Speaker 1: this podcast at any rate. Let's get to the best

863
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:48,760
Speaker 1: bet here. For Thursday Night Football. I actually am super

864
00:42:48,800 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 1: intrigued by the Jaguars at the Bengals, and I don't

865
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:56,240
Speaker 1: care about all the numbers on rookie quarterbacks on Thursday

866
00:42:56,280 --> 00:43:00,239
Speaker 1: Night football in a short week, and folks, I have

867
00:43:00,520 --> 00:43:03,520
Speaker 1: money line action on the Jacksonville Jaguars I took to

868
00:43:03,600 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 1: seven and a half points. I'm of the belief that, yes,

869
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:09,399
Speaker 1: the Bengals are pretty feisty this year. They're coming off

870
00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:13,880
Speaker 1: a big win over a division rival in Pittsburgh, and

871
00:43:14,000 --> 00:43:16,879
Speaker 1: they're not in a position to be favored by seven

872
00:43:16,920 --> 00:43:19,560
Speaker 1: and a half over anybody. UM. I know it's tough

873
00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:22,160
Speaker 1: to hold your nose and bet money on Jacksonville team

874
00:43:22,160 --> 00:43:24,320
Speaker 1: that looks like a train wreck and can't move the

875
00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:29,240
Speaker 1: football against anybody. But but let's remember, Uh, they couldn't

876
00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:31,360
Speaker 1: move to the football against the Denver Broncos, who were

877
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:34,040
Speaker 1: really good. Uh. They were able to hang tough against

878
00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:38,160
Speaker 1: Arizona until a bad, bad pick six by Trevor Lawrence. UM.

879
00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:41,799
Speaker 1: I think if they can limit the mistakes against Cincinnati,

880
00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:44,320
Speaker 1: why can't they hang in this game? Now? The secondary

881
00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:46,440
Speaker 1: is going to have some trouble with Jamaar Chase uh

882
00:43:46,480 --> 00:43:49,719
Speaker 1: Tee Higgins in the gang. I don't see why they

883
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:52,960
Speaker 1: can't hang. Now that everybody's selling Jacksonville to the point

884
00:43:53,000 --> 00:43:55,200
Speaker 1: that this total opened up at forty nine, it's down

885
00:43:55,239 --> 00:43:58,480
Speaker 1: to forty six. People just think rookie quarterback, rookie coach

886
00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:00,600
Speaker 1: Thursday Night, they're gonna get their asses. Kid, They're not

887
00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:03,040
Speaker 1: gonna score. It's gonna be like a thirty to ten

888
00:44:03,200 --> 00:44:06,360
Speaker 1: or something something bad like that. We're talking about the

889
00:44:06,400 --> 00:44:11,000
Speaker 1: Cincinnati Bengals. We're talking about Zach Taylor. The guy did

890
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:15,680
Speaker 1: not turn into a brain child overnight when um this

891
00:44:15,719 --> 00:44:18,399
Speaker 1: season began, just because they're two and one. Like, yes,

892
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:21,800
Speaker 1: I like Burrow, Yes, I like the Bengals, but seven

893
00:44:21,840 --> 00:44:24,360
Speaker 1: and a half. So I bet Jacksonville here. Um. I

894
00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:27,319
Speaker 1: will put some props on I g stories later today

895
00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:30,600
Speaker 1: once the prop numbers come out and I dig into them. Um,

896
00:44:30,640 --> 00:44:33,600
Speaker 1: but I like Jacksonville here. Not a huge bet from me. Um,

897
00:44:33,719 --> 00:44:37,000
Speaker 1: not even like a full unit play. Um. I did

898
00:44:37,040 --> 00:44:39,359
Speaker 1: a half unit on Jacksonville and then a little bit

899
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:43,000
Speaker 1: on the money line, um can. And part of it

900
00:44:43,080 --> 00:44:45,960
Speaker 1: is and this is the emotional stuff that Rufus and

901
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:49,120
Speaker 1: I talked about, Like you're supposed to remove the emotion

902
00:44:49,440 --> 00:44:53,000
Speaker 1: from this that being said, I was very very pro

903
00:44:53,120 --> 00:44:55,000
Speaker 1: Jacksonville in the off season. You guys remember it. I

904
00:44:55,040 --> 00:44:57,440
Speaker 1: thought they win the division. I thought they were going

905
00:44:57,480 --> 00:45:00,959
Speaker 1: to the playoffs. I did. I was bullish on Trevor

906
00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:03,560
Speaker 1: Lords still am I thought. And we even talked to

907
00:45:03,640 --> 00:45:07,120
Speaker 1: somebody who said, um, Urban Meyers. Sometimes when these college

908
00:45:07,160 --> 00:45:09,080
Speaker 1: coaches come in they have an edge because there's no

909
00:45:09,120 --> 00:45:11,120
Speaker 1: book on them in the NFL. Urban Meyer hadn't coached

910
00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:15,160
Speaker 1: in two years. He should be performing way better than

911
00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:19,440
Speaker 1: he is. Is this the spot well? I mean, undeniably,

912
00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:24,279
Speaker 1: this is the weakest defense that UM Trevor Lawrence will

913
00:45:24,320 --> 00:45:26,200
Speaker 1: have faith since the opener And again it was his

914
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 1: opener first game, Like, come on, you really expect him

915
00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:32,520
Speaker 1: to to be very good. UM, but we're talking about

916
00:45:32,560 --> 00:45:36,800
Speaker 1: a Bengals defense right now that is average at best,

917
00:45:37,440 --> 00:45:42,239
Speaker 1: UM in the league. And like you know, they were

918
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:45,400
Speaker 1: okay against the Vikings. Uh, they look better against the

919
00:45:45,400 --> 00:45:47,839
Speaker 1: Steelers because while the Steelers have nothing and can't move

920
00:45:47,880 --> 00:45:51,319
Speaker 1: the football. UM, and then against the Chicago Bears, you know,

921
00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:53,279
Speaker 1: who are a pretty good defense, they couldn't move a

922
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:55,680
Speaker 1: football for three quarters until Justin Field started to give

923
00:45:55,719 --> 00:45:57,920
Speaker 1: them the ball. Uh. Joe Burrow stopped turning it over

924
00:45:57,960 --> 00:45:59,560
Speaker 1: and they got in the game late. But it's not

925
00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:01,640
Speaker 1: a great Bengals team. I like the Bengals, but I

926
00:46:01,680 --> 00:46:04,600
Speaker 1: bet the Jags here and on the money line, and yeah,

927
00:46:04,680 --> 00:46:06,759
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna be tooting my horn a little bit

928
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:10,440
Speaker 1: on tomorrow's podcast when Trevor Lawrence delivers We'll talk to

929
00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:10,920
Speaker 1: you tomorrow