1 00:00:00,600 --> 00:00:03,640 Speaker 1: Hi, everyone. I have a confession. I think I got 2 00:00:03,680 --> 00:00:07,120 Speaker 1: into all this energy and climate stuff to impress a girl. Actually, no, 3 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:09,920 Speaker 1: I'm I'm sure I did. I was in grad school 4 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:12,200 Speaker 1: for molecular biology at the time, but looking for a change. 5 00:00:12,760 --> 00:00:14,800 Speaker 1: She was working in utilities in environment and told me 6 00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:17,360 Speaker 1: about all this stuff I never heard of, like offshore 7 00:00:17,440 --> 00:00:20,800 Speaker 1: wind farms, or bioplastics, or taking c O two from 8 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:23,239 Speaker 1: the air and pumping it into rocks. That one now 9 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:26,239 Speaker 1: known as carbon capture and storage sounded particularly out there 10 00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:28,360 Speaker 1: to me. The more I looked into this stuff, the 11 00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:32,000 Speaker 1: more interested I got. So fast forward a few months, 12 00:00:32,040 --> 00:00:34,360 Speaker 1: I found myself interviewing for a job with New Energy 13 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 1: Finance or any F, a London based research and analytics 14 00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:40,479 Speaker 1: startup whose u S operation was two guys working out 15 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 1: of a tiny rented office in Alexander, Virginia. The person 16 00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 1: interviewing me was Ethan Zindler, who happens to be today's guest. 17 00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 1: So I got the job, and Ethan and I have 18 00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:51,599 Speaker 1: worked together for about thirteen years at what is now 19 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:53,559 Speaker 1: Bloomberg in e F or bn F, where he is 20 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 1: the head of America's Over this time, we've seen the 21 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 1: industry go through a lot of changes. Just one example, 22 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:00,640 Speaker 1: in two thousand seven, when I started it, there was 23 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 1: nineteen giga watts of wind and solar online in the US. 24 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:08,160 Speaker 1: There were two fifty nine giga watts. Today. We'll get 25 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:10,120 Speaker 1: into the many changes that have happened in the US 26 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 1: over the past decade, and a report he and his 27 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 1: team did in collaboration with the Business Council for Sustainable 28 00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:18,399 Speaker 1: Energy or the bc SE titled Sustainable Energy in America 29 00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:22,400 Speaker 1: Factbook Good News. The report this week is available to everyone, 30 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:24,840 Speaker 1: not just Be Enough clients. You can get it at 31 00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 1: bcs dot org. And before we get into it, a 32 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 1: reminder that benef does not provide investment or strategy advice, 33 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:31,840 Speaker 1: and you can hear a full disclaimer at the end 34 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:34,360 Speaker 1: of the show. If you like the show, please go 35 00:01:34,360 --> 00:01:36,360 Speaker 1: ahead and rate and review us on Apple podcast or 36 00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:39,480 Speaker 1: wherever you listening. Oh and the girl, I think she 37 00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:42,039 Speaker 1: was impressed. I'm still not sure, but we're about to 38 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:45,479 Speaker 1: celebrate our tenth wedding anniversary. I'm Mark Taylor, and you're 39 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:50,760 Speaker 1: listening to switch on to Be Enough Podcast. Ethan, thanks 40 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:53,040 Speaker 1: for coming in, great to be here to start us off. 41 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:54,440 Speaker 1: Can you just tell us a little bit about the 42 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 1: project itself. Sure, So the fact book is something we've 43 00:01:57,720 --> 00:02:00,639 Speaker 1: now done for eight years in partnership with this Council 44 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 1: for Sustainable Energy UH. The bc s E is a 45 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:08,520 Speaker 1: Washington based organization that is basically a coalition of energy 46 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 1: efficiency companies, renewable energy companies, at gas companies, and other 47 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:19,040 Speaker 1: similar organizations that are focused on lower carbon power generation overall. 48 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 1: And the report, I should note, is free to everybody 49 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:26,519 Speaker 1: and encourage people to download it at www dot b 50 00:02:26,639 --> 00:02:29,760 Speaker 1: CSC dot org or on our website at BNF dot com. 51 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:33,079 Speaker 1: It's not behind any kind of a payroll. So I 52 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 1: read this report, and I must admit when I went 53 00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 1: into it, I thought it was gonna be pretty boring. 54 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:39,640 Speaker 1: It's a fact book of what's happened in the US 55 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 1: over the last ten years. I thought it was just 56 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:46,359 Speaker 1: gonna say renewables have grown, Yippi great. But I was 57 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 1: quickly turned around. I started to make a note of 58 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:50,800 Speaker 1: all the many areas that are changed, and I can 59 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:53,000 Speaker 1: put in a list of sixteen areas that have changed. 60 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 1: Can you talk a bit about what has changed and 61 00:02:55,760 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 1: what has happened in the last ten years? Well, first, Mark, 62 00:02:58,240 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 1: I mean I don't know when last time you came 63 00:02:59,880 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 1: the United States. But like facts are kind of cool 64 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 1: now here, okay, um, and actually being yeah, so being 65 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:10,720 Speaker 1: real factory is actually pretty sexy, so you know, I 66 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:13,360 Speaker 1: would say, you know, okay, we you know. So the 67 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:15,679 Speaker 1: ambition of this report is to provide a great deal 68 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:18,360 Speaker 1: of data and information about what is going on in 69 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 1: the US market. And one of the main reasons is 70 00:03:20,200 --> 00:03:22,120 Speaker 1: because we feel like that there is a lot of 71 00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:26,000 Speaker 1: misinformation or even disinformation out there, and that's the goal. 72 00:03:26,440 --> 00:03:29,640 Speaker 1: But yes, there's lots of really I think, extremely interesting things. 73 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:33,080 Speaker 1: Because um, the report is usually it's an annual report. 74 00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:36,600 Speaker 1: It still is, but we very conveniently just came to 75 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 1: the end of a decade, so we tried to cast 76 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 1: a little longer view back. And if you look at 77 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:44,480 Speaker 1: how much has occurred in the United States in the 78 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 1: last ten years in the areas of what we call 79 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 1: in this report sustainable energy, but also renewable energy, energy efficiency, 80 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:56,240 Speaker 1: advanced transportation, all these things, it's pretty remarkable. Really, it's 81 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:58,320 Speaker 1: incredible how much is changing. You and I know because 82 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:00,080 Speaker 1: you know, we were working together ten years ago in 83 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 1: Washington and there's a lot going on. But but you know, 84 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 1: the transformation that's taken place in the U s energy 85 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:10,400 Speaker 1: sector has been really, really quite dramatic. I remember when 86 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 1: I started at any F when we were back in 87 00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:16,880 Speaker 1: when we were startup, I met our CEO, our founder 88 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:19,680 Speaker 1: at a at a meeting from a corp, the American 89 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:22,160 Speaker 1: Council and Renewable Energy, I believe it's called, and it 90 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:24,840 Speaker 1: was called their Phase two meeting UM, and I think 91 00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:27,719 Speaker 1: it was phase two of going from like experimental into 92 00:04:27,760 --> 00:04:31,200 Speaker 1: like commercialization of renewable energy. I think what phase we 93 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:35,040 Speaker 1: in now, I don't know, like we're definitely I mean, 94 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:37,760 Speaker 1: you know exactly. It was trying to go from like 95 00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:39,680 Speaker 1: you know, we're at the at the edges and the 96 00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 1: kind of pilot scale, a demonstration scale, to entering the market, 97 00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:46,360 Speaker 1: and then that certainly happened during the decade, and then 98 00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 1: we really entered another phase where we're seeing, you know 99 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:53,200 Speaker 1: a lot of these things take place really driven for 100 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:57,000 Speaker 1: economic reasons and the cost competitiveness, which is legitimate, and 101 00:04:57,040 --> 00:04:59,720 Speaker 1: so you know, if you take something like solar, there 102 00:04:59,800 --> 00:05:01,840 Speaker 1: was us than a giga out of solar online in 103 00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 1: the United States a decade ago, where at seventy five 104 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:07,840 Speaker 1: giga watts. Now, UM, you know, the amount of wind 105 00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:10,839 Speaker 1: capacity has tripled over that period of time. Um. And 106 00:05:10,839 --> 00:05:12,520 Speaker 1: then on the flip side, if you look at how 107 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 1: much there's been decarbonization in terms of coal coming offline. 108 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:17,359 Speaker 1: You know, we used to get about half our power 109 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:21,400 Speaker 1: from coal. Is probably about twenty four of our power 110 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:24,320 Speaker 1: came from coal. I think the thing that, for me 111 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 1: at least is interesting, And of course what makes it 112 00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:28,000 Speaker 1: fun for us to work in this industry is that, 113 00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:31,080 Speaker 1: you know, the traditional thought about energy as well. Okay, 114 00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:34,440 Speaker 1: do changes do occur, but they take a long time, 115 00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:37,720 Speaker 1: and you gotta be patient, you gotta think in decades, etcetera. 116 00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:40,240 Speaker 1: I mean, this decade has proven that that is just 117 00:05:40,320 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 1: not true. Things can just turn on a dime, very 118 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:45,200 Speaker 1: very quickly. Yeah. I just as I've mentioned in the beginning, 119 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:46,880 Speaker 1: I started to take notes of things that have changed. 120 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:49,479 Speaker 1: And my first assumption was that, yeah, the world looks 121 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:51,400 Speaker 1: roughly the same, or the US at least look roughly 122 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 1: the same. But no, it's very different. I can't remember 123 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:56,720 Speaker 1: the last time I've used, you know, a filament light 124 00:05:56,760 --> 00:06:02,359 Speaker 1: bulb for example, or I take Uber everywhere, Um, yeah no, 125 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:05,760 Speaker 1: and or you know, electric vehicles ten years ago. Basically 126 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:08,720 Speaker 1: you couldn't buy one. There's about forty four choices for 127 00:06:08,760 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 1: American consumers to buy electric vehicles that's pure electrics. You 128 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:14,760 Speaker 1: can buy plug in hybrid electric car if you if 129 00:06:14,760 --> 00:06:16,600 Speaker 1: you really you want to your nerd out, you can 130 00:06:16,640 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 1: get like a fuel cell hydrogen car. There's those are unusual, 131 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 1: but it's possible many cars. I'll let you put some 132 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 1: biofuels in the tank too, if that's what you want 133 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:27,800 Speaker 1: to do. So the number of choices for consumers when 134 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:31,839 Speaker 1: it comes to transportation is obviously dramatically expanded UM. But 135 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:33,160 Speaker 1: one of the points we also try and make in 136 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:35,040 Speaker 1: the report is that, you know, we call it the 137 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:38,000 Speaker 1: quote unquote empowered consumer, where you look at all different 138 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 1: types of areas where consumers now have choices that they 139 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:45,840 Speaker 1: didn't have before. Transportation is just one of them. Homeowners 140 00:06:45,839 --> 00:06:49,520 Speaker 1: have different choices UM. Businesses have more choices even in 141 00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:52,000 Speaker 1: terms of what type of power to buy. Absolutely you 142 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:54,680 Speaker 1: can you know and and how you want to buy it, 143 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 1: So you know, do you want to put a PV 144 00:06:56,800 --> 00:06:58,680 Speaker 1: system on your roof? Where do you want to sign 145 00:06:58,760 --> 00:07:00,719 Speaker 1: on to be part of a community solar deal where 146 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:03,359 Speaker 1: you buy some of the solar that's produced locally or 147 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:05,279 Speaker 1: do you want to just buy it through your utility 148 00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 1: by paying some kind of a green you know, premium 149 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:10,440 Speaker 1: on that. And of course companies have the same opportunities 150 00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:13,120 Speaker 1: as well, and they can sign direct contracts um with 151 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:16,600 Speaker 1: large producers and we saw another another you know record 152 00:07:16,680 --> 00:07:18,960 Speaker 1: for corporate p p A s that were signed last 153 00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 1: year as well. So consumers have been very much empowered 154 00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:24,320 Speaker 1: in all of this. And I guess, you know, within 155 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 1: the Washington context, one of the things that I really 156 00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:29,520 Speaker 1: do try to emphasize in this report is guess what, 157 00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 1: it turns out that actually this is also cheaper. And 158 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:37,000 Speaker 1: that's something that I think there's still very often this 159 00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:40,920 Speaker 1: sort of false economy perpetuated that like dirty energy is 160 00:07:40,960 --> 00:07:43,600 Speaker 1: cheap energy, plain energy gotta pay a little bit more. 161 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 1: But that's just not true if you look at if 162 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 1: you look at how costs have come down in the US. 163 00:07:49,120 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 1: And to be clear, before anybody you know out there 164 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:54,720 Speaker 1: and podcast world, you know, complains and says that I'm oversimplifying. Yes, 165 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:57,120 Speaker 1: that's not just because of renewables, that's because the gas too, 166 00:07:57,360 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 1: definitely a gas is really cheap. It was the peak 167 00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:02,560 Speaker 1: fourteen dollars prove v to you, and now they can 168 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:05,360 Speaker 1: barely get over to yeah. So yeah, and that, you know, 169 00:08:05,400 --> 00:08:07,000 Speaker 1: and low and holding by the way, like it doesn't 170 00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 1: look like it's going up anytime soon, especially since we 171 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 1: didn't really have much of a January in terms of weather, 172 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:15,560 Speaker 1: so the prices have been pretty flat. So going back again, 173 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:19,680 Speaker 1: I remember every year, almost I guess every year we 174 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:21,920 Speaker 1: in the office would get nervous that the PTC or 175 00:08:21,920 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 1: the production text credit was going to expire, and it 176 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:27,120 Speaker 1: always seemed to, you know, keep on going. You had 177 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:28,960 Speaker 1: a line in the in the report that said there 178 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:33,239 Speaker 1: was a great confluence of technology, innovation, policy, and economies 179 00:08:33,240 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 1: of scale. Which of those three do you think at 180 00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:38,600 Speaker 1: the greatest impact. Well, definitely combination of all of them. 181 00:08:38,720 --> 00:08:41,120 Speaker 1: But it's a really good question. I mean, at one 182 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:44,280 Speaker 1: point to make is that you know, the United States, 183 00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:48,040 Speaker 1: we don't do like long term policy planning like pretty 184 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 1: well at all. So ten years ago it wasn't like, 185 00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:52,800 Speaker 1: you know, in Washington they sat down they said, we 186 00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:55,480 Speaker 1: have a natural energy strategy. We're going to cut our 187 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:57,280 Speaker 1: emissions by this and much. We're you know, going to 188 00:08:57,400 --> 00:08:59,680 Speaker 1: take about half the call fleet offline. We're gonna do 189 00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 1: all these None of that happened. Um, yeah, there was 190 00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:07,440 Speaker 1: some federal legislation, and I could argue that the stimulus 191 00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:10,600 Speaker 1: Bill it was passed at the end of the prior decade, 192 00:09:10,640 --> 00:09:13,000 Speaker 1: made a huge impact, but it frankly wasn't its main 193 00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:15,559 Speaker 1: goal wasn't like to think long term about US energy 194 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:19,280 Speaker 1: security and people rights, to get people working. So those 195 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:22,240 Speaker 1: things contributed, and I would say that the stimulus bill 196 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 1: plus the state level mandates for renewables kind of and 197 00:09:26,160 --> 00:09:28,240 Speaker 1: and by the way, state level mandates for energy efficiency 198 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:30,600 Speaker 1: it should we pointed out to those really kind of 199 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:33,920 Speaker 1: got some momentum going. And then economies of scale kick 200 00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:36,880 Speaker 1: kicked up, frankly because in part because the Chinese were like, Wow, 201 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 1: the US, that's a big market, let's export there, and 202 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:42,680 Speaker 1: so boom, suddenly you have a massive scale up of 203 00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 1: battery manufacturing and photobo take manufacturing in China to serve 204 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:49,599 Speaker 1: the US market. Prices not just the US market, but 205 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:52,960 Speaker 1: others prices came down. So that's your economies of scale 206 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:55,320 Speaker 1: kind of story. And then by you know, two thirds 207 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:57,199 Speaker 1: of the way through the decade and towards the end, 208 00:09:57,280 --> 00:10:00,480 Speaker 1: you have legitimate price competition. And so yeah, it's a 209 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:02,559 Speaker 1: combination of all things, but I think you could probably 210 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:05,480 Speaker 1: say the policy really did help spark stuff and then 211 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:07,959 Speaker 1: you've got economies of scale and along the way it's 212 00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:10,040 Speaker 1: been technology innovation. But I do think it's worth, you know, 213 00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:12,319 Speaker 1: noting that like you and I remember back in the 214 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:15,679 Speaker 1: heyday where people are raising venture capital for all kinds 215 00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:19,600 Speaker 1: of stuff, and that those days are long over and 216 00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 1: there were innovations, but economies of scale are really what 217 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:25,719 Speaker 1: drove a lot of the progress that we've seen at 218 00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:27,360 Speaker 1: our summit over the past couple of days. I heard 219 00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:29,840 Speaker 1: venture capital for quote unquote clean tech is back up. 220 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:32,480 Speaker 1: Is that right? There's definitely some renewed interest and I think, 221 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:36,880 Speaker 1: you know, but vcs have so many scars from money 222 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:39,559 Speaker 1: loss the first time around. The Usually the first criteria 223 00:10:39,640 --> 00:10:42,280 Speaker 1: is like, Okay, can we invest in this uh in 224 00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:45,840 Speaker 1: a way that won't you know, in two years require 225 00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:48,560 Speaker 1: this company and us to try and raise like a 226 00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:50,880 Speaker 1: half a billion dollars for them to go demonstrate the 227 00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:54,199 Speaker 1: technology out in the desert someone. So if it's something 228 00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 1: that's simpler than there, and you know, and it's more 229 00:10:57,360 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 1: plug play or or or software oriented, and I think 230 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:03,920 Speaker 1: they're more there. I'm smiling because it just reminds you 231 00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:05,600 Speaker 1: of the areas that I used to cover as an analyst, 232 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:08,079 Speaker 1: you know, geothermal and carbon capture and stores, which were 233 00:11:08,280 --> 00:11:11,400 Speaker 1: big projects that in a lot of cases cost tens 234 00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:13,920 Speaker 1: to hundreds of millions of dollars to test. Can you 235 00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:15,880 Speaker 1: talk about some of the things that didn't pan out 236 00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:19,240 Speaker 1: over the decade. It's a really good question. And um, 237 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:21,520 Speaker 1: as you know ten years ago, we as a firm 238 00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:25,920 Speaker 1: at Bloombergunna F we're interested in all the potential new technologies, 239 00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:28,280 Speaker 1: and we frankly from a sort of resources perspective, we're 240 00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:31,000 Speaker 1: spending as much time probably thinking about bio fuels as 241 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:34,840 Speaker 1: we were about geothermal and ccs and all these other things. 242 00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:38,600 Speaker 1: There was certainly no guarantee it was. It wasn't clear 243 00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:40,480 Speaker 1: then that you would have a couple of technologies on 244 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:42,960 Speaker 1: the renewable side be the biggest ones that would emerge. 245 00:11:43,320 --> 00:11:45,599 Speaker 1: It also wasn't clear at all about how important the 246 00:11:45,640 --> 00:11:47,600 Speaker 1: fracking revolution was going to be in the fact that 247 00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:50,800 Speaker 1: we boost our natural gas production by in ten years. 248 00:11:50,840 --> 00:11:53,360 Speaker 1: So there were a lot of things that weren't clear. 249 00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:55,640 Speaker 1: And I would say, though, yeah, I mean like geo 250 00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:58,320 Speaker 1: thermal has not gone in the way I think people 251 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:00,760 Speaker 1: might have liked and steady um Eile Fuels had a 252 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:04,960 Speaker 1: moment where basically they built enough capacity to serve ten 253 00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:07,640 Speaker 1: percent of the gasoline market and so they could replace 254 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:11,760 Speaker 1: what was an additive called mtb UM and the policy 255 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:14,760 Speaker 1: driven policy driven, and then since then not so much 256 00:12:14,800 --> 00:12:16,920 Speaker 1: interesting stuff. I'm sure you know a few things around 257 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:19,120 Speaker 1: the edges, but not nearly as much. So, yeah, that 258 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 1: hasn't panned out. And then of course, um CCS is 259 00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:24,200 Speaker 1: one of those things where you know, I think CCS 260 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:26,240 Speaker 1: is sort of having a moment again and seems to 261 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:30,079 Speaker 1: be and it's because it's it's actually, frankly largely because 262 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:32,240 Speaker 1: the federal government has put in place a pretty generous 263 00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:34,360 Speaker 1: tax credit, which I think a lot of the folks 264 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:36,800 Speaker 1: in the industry are hoping we'll drive some real scale it. 265 00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:40,400 Speaker 1: But yes, CCS maybe one of the classic technologies that 266 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:43,320 Speaker 1: required billions of dollars of investment and people just weren't 267 00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:46,160 Speaker 1: willing to kind of take the plunge on it. In 268 00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:50,040 Speaker 1: twenty nineteen, we saw basically a form of all of 269 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:53,600 Speaker 1: these things. All these dynamic changes happen in some shape 270 00:12:53,679 --> 00:12:55,880 Speaker 1: or another. Can you just catch some the major changes 271 00:12:55,960 --> 00:12:58,880 Speaker 1: just last year. Sure, So you know, and I'm gonna 272 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:00,400 Speaker 1: look down at my cheat sheet a little bit here 273 00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:04,200 Speaker 1: because I can't remember every single fact that but there, yeah, 274 00:13:04,280 --> 00:13:05,680 Speaker 1: certainly were have been. And I would think the one 275 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:07,800 Speaker 1: point I would make about twenty nineteen was that, you know, 276 00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:10,840 Speaker 1: we've now done this fact report for eight years, and again, 277 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:13,440 Speaker 1: like I said, we we do it in Washington, we 278 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:16,080 Speaker 1: release it in Washington. We want people to understand what 279 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:19,520 Speaker 1: the facts are. And there is a larger narrative about 280 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 1: decarbonization and transformation and empowerment of consumers. But every year 281 00:13:23,920 --> 00:13:27,200 Speaker 1: there's like different things that like kind of are slightly 282 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:30,600 Speaker 1: off trend. You know, something doesn't exactly happen within that 283 00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:32,840 Speaker 1: grander scheme of sort of larger trends. It was seeming 284 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 1: to kind of have to explain it. Last year was 285 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 1: interesting though, because basically almost everything happened on trend. So 286 00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:41,280 Speaker 1: basically we saw, you know, on the whole side, we 287 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:45,000 Speaker 1: saw thirteen percent less coal generation from the year prior, 288 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:47,920 Speaker 1: so a pretty steep decline. UM. We saw US power 289 00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:52,240 Speaker 1: sector emissions again decline. UM, we saw total US greenhouse 290 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:54,720 Speaker 1: gas emissions decline just a little bit year on year 291 00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:59,559 Speaker 1: as well. We saw increasing competitiveness for energy storage projects 292 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:03,560 Speaker 1: paired a solar. We saw wind go past hydro in 293 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:07,360 Speaker 1: terms of total generation as a contributor. We saw increasing 294 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:10,280 Speaker 1: energy productivity. And this is something we try and highlight 295 00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:14,200 Speaker 1: every year in the report, which is very very simple metric, 296 00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:16,079 Speaker 1: which is just like how much does the U. S. 297 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 1: Economy grow and how much does our primary energy consumption grow? 298 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:23,560 Speaker 1: And the answer is pretty often the economy grows and 299 00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:26,480 Speaker 1: primary energy consumption stays the same or goes down. And 300 00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:29,440 Speaker 1: in fact, basically the GDP grew at a much greater 301 00:14:29,560 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 1: rate over the course of a decade than it did 302 00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:35,440 Speaker 1: than energy consumption did. And last year energy consumption actually 303 00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:37,680 Speaker 1: ticked down a little bit. So there's five of ten 304 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:39,720 Speaker 1: last five of the ten last year started to finish, 305 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:43,880 Speaker 1: but just ten last years energy consumption has gone down 306 00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:47,080 Speaker 1: year on year, But in each of the last ten 307 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:49,160 Speaker 1: years the U. S. Economy has grown. Can can you 308 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:50,640 Speaker 1: explain that a bit? Does that mean we're just getting 309 00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:54,320 Speaker 1: more efficient? Yeah? How this sort of the good news 310 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:57,080 Speaker 1: and I'm making I'm make an air quote. Um, but 311 00:14:57,280 --> 00:14:59,560 Speaker 1: the good news is that you know, Americans in the 312 00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:03,440 Speaker 1: American economy is unbelievably profligate in terms of how much 313 00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:07,800 Speaker 1: energy we consume per person, we use a ton, I mean, 314 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:11,000 Speaker 1: more than anybody in the world. So yeah, by a 315 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:13,120 Speaker 1: long shot. So what that means is that, you know, 316 00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:15,520 Speaker 1: not only they're low hanging fruit. There's like, you know, 317 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:18,280 Speaker 1: I don't you know, a massive harvest of watermelons. All 318 00:15:18,280 --> 00:15:22,480 Speaker 1: every ground scooped up for the for the energy efficiency sector. 319 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 1: And so in many ways, we're still just getting started 320 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:28,200 Speaker 1: on all of this. So you know, for instance, in 321 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:30,560 Speaker 1: the last decade, we've put you know, there's about a 322 00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:33,560 Speaker 1: billion LED bulbs that have been installed, and that's sort 323 00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 1: of light bulbs are easy because people can kind of 324 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:38,760 Speaker 1: get their heads around and understand that compared to none 325 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:41,680 Speaker 1: a year ago, and that's cutting energy consumption massively. But 326 00:15:41,720 --> 00:15:44,560 Speaker 1: we're still only replaced about half the light bulbs in 327 00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:47,960 Speaker 1: the US. There's all kinds of opportunities going forward, only 328 00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:49,960 Speaker 1: pace half only about half. And I can't remember the 329 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:52,120 Speaker 1: last time I've seen a filament bulb in a store. 330 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:56,520 Speaker 1: I mean, still there's you know, people have the bulbs 331 00:15:56,600 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 1: last a long time, they have them on the shelves 332 00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:00,640 Speaker 1: for years, and you know they're old bulbs, you know, 333 00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:02,120 Speaker 1: And I still have a few old ones in my 334 00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:05,360 Speaker 1: house kicking around someplace. So you know that that change 335 00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:06,840 Speaker 1: is going to take time. But it's not just that 336 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 1: it's furnaces, it's washers and dryers, it's cable television boxes. Yeah, 337 00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:15,240 Speaker 1: some people still watch cable TV, and um, you know, 338 00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 1: all all those kinds of things that are being swapped out. 339 00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:20,280 Speaker 1: And and to be clear, you know, you get you 340 00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:22,080 Speaker 1: can pas themselves on the back is this is some 341 00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 1: sort of great, you know, decarbonization effort, But in many 342 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:28,400 Speaker 1: cases it's business owners and and and homeowners just trying 343 00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:31,960 Speaker 1: to cut their monthly costs. And along those lines, you know, 344 00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 1: we found that over the decade, the percentage that homeowners 345 00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:39,240 Speaker 1: are spending on energy is like the lowest it's been 346 00:16:39,280 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 1: in like forty year years, and they seem to be 347 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 1: the biggest winners in the past decade, Is that right? Yeah? 348 00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:47,520 Speaker 1: I mean consumer you know, consumer retail retail electricity prices 349 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 1: have definitely not fallen as much as wholesale power prices, 350 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 1: but they will continue to fall, especially as US utilities 351 00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:56,040 Speaker 1: are supposed to pass through the value of a tax 352 00:16:56,120 --> 00:16:59,680 Speaker 1: cut that the Trump administration gave it last year. Um, 353 00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:02,760 Speaker 1: and that will continue. And but generally speaking, yet consumers 354 00:17:02,760 --> 00:17:06,040 Speaker 1: pay less. We know we have some of the least costly. Um. 355 00:17:06,080 --> 00:17:09,280 Speaker 1: You know, energy in the entire world on multiple levels 356 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:13,720 Speaker 1: is cheap natural gas now plentiful oil production in the US, 357 00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 1: and gasoline prices that aren't high, and then electricity prices 358 00:17:17,080 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 1: that have been driven down by cheap gas prices. So 359 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:22,960 Speaker 1: let's flip it a bit. Costs of all technologies have 360 00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:26,679 Speaker 1: decreased over the past decade, right, and companies used to 361 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:29,560 Speaker 1: do okay by getting relatively high terraces for their electricity 362 00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:33,679 Speaker 1: or hydrocarbons. Who is winning now in this current market. 363 00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:35,959 Speaker 1: So that's a really good question and definitely something that 364 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:40,600 Speaker 1: we probably hear more from clients these days, which is like, 365 00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:43,400 Speaker 1: how do I make a buck? Yeah? Exactly, Um, And 366 00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:45,800 Speaker 1: that's not a you know, that's not a crazy it's 367 00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:48,720 Speaker 1: not a crazy question because you know, with this sort 368 00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:52,240 Speaker 1: of real lentless pushed down on power prices, particularly in 369 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:55,040 Speaker 1: the electricity sector, it's hard for folks to make money. 370 00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:58,479 Speaker 1: In many cases. We are definitely seeing new models in 371 00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:01,320 Speaker 1: terms of how energy get sold. But I do think 372 00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:03,520 Speaker 1: it's not a it's not a sort of I can't 373 00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:06,040 Speaker 1: sort of blow that question off. I think that one 374 00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:08,240 Speaker 1: of the things that in the medium to long term 375 00:18:08,240 --> 00:18:09,880 Speaker 1: in the US that's going to have to be thought 376 00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:13,439 Speaker 1: about is how can you restructure power markets in a 377 00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:16,800 Speaker 1: way so that people do get compensated. Because it's it's 378 00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:18,720 Speaker 1: all well and good that we're in this period of 379 00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:23,480 Speaker 1: sort of steep power price decline, but eventually, if you 380 00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:27,199 Speaker 1: want to continue to see people, you know, participating in 381 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:29,479 Speaker 1: terms of building new projects and stuff, then you're going 382 00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:30,960 Speaker 1: to need to make sure that they can earn a 383 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:33,960 Speaker 1: rate of return so they can keep investing. All that said, 384 00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:37,400 Speaker 1: a small asterisk guy put on that is that I 385 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:41,080 Speaker 1: think in the US, traditionally, when especially when you think 386 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 1: about renewable development and even you know, power and even 387 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:47,439 Speaker 1: a fossil fuel development, we have this great tradition of 388 00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:50,919 Speaker 1: independent power producers, the sort of um, you know, the 389 00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:55,119 Speaker 1: cliche wind farm cowboys. You know, these independent firms that 390 00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:57,880 Speaker 1: were going out, yeah exactly, and you know, signing deals 391 00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:02,480 Speaker 1: and whatever. Those guys are usually backed by private equity money, 392 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:06,120 Speaker 1: and those investors expect pretty high rates of return on 393 00:19:06,160 --> 00:19:10,040 Speaker 1: the projects. Those guys in particular are facing you know, 394 00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:12,720 Speaker 1: some real headwinds at the moment, but that doesn't mean 395 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:15,320 Speaker 1: that you can't have a big utility who wants to 396 00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:17,800 Speaker 1: earn a much lower rate of return come in and develop. 397 00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:19,679 Speaker 1: And that's what we're definitely starting to see, not just 398 00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:23,000 Speaker 1: with like domestic utilities like the southerns and the Dukes 399 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:26,120 Speaker 1: and the others, but also international players like a Knell 400 00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:28,119 Speaker 1: and some of the others who are coming over and 401 00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:30,240 Speaker 1: they make a lot of money cash flow off of 402 00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:32,800 Speaker 1: other operations. They don't need to earn ten to fift 403 00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:35,640 Speaker 1: rate of return on a winter solar project. They'll take 404 00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:37,400 Speaker 1: you know, in the five to ten percent, maybe even 405 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:40,479 Speaker 1: a little lower. So the market's going to change as 406 00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:42,520 Speaker 1: a result of that. But yeah, it's it's hard out 407 00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:46,359 Speaker 1: there for some of the windfarm cowboys of yesteryear. So 408 00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:48,200 Speaker 1: is that what you see for the next ten years? 409 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,400 Speaker 1: We'll see more and more international players coming in. Where 410 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:53,320 Speaker 1: are the opportunities in the next time. We're definitely seeing 411 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:56,720 Speaker 1: more international players come into renewable development. There's still plenty 412 00:19:56,760 --> 00:20:01,840 Speaker 1: of opportunities for domestic players for energy efficiency retrofits, you know, 413 00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:04,200 Speaker 1: and that stuff that's local work, you know, that has 414 00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:08,320 Speaker 1: to be done, the installation of PV modules on people's roofs. Again, 415 00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:10,359 Speaker 1: like there's no reason's an you need to be owned 416 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:14,280 Speaker 1: by UH, an international conglomerate or even like a tesla. 417 00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:16,560 Speaker 1: But you know, there's are there are those opportunities I 418 00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:18,960 Speaker 1: think out there. Um, you know, we we do think 419 00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:22,760 Speaker 1: that these report itself to be clear and UH is 420 00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:25,800 Speaker 1: all backward facing. But what it doesn't have is any 421 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,600 Speaker 1: forward looking views because we we wanted to keep it 422 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:31,119 Speaker 1: just fact based. So this is my opinion, which is, 423 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:33,119 Speaker 1: you know, we are optimistic. We think we're going to 424 00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:36,359 Speaker 1: see actually one of the very strongest years for renewable 425 00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:38,480 Speaker 1: build this year, and we think we're gonna have a 426 00:20:38,520 --> 00:20:41,640 Speaker 1: good couple of years going forward. Do you foresee any 427 00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:44,359 Speaker 1: black swans or or big changes in the next decade. 428 00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:46,360 Speaker 1: I guess that's a definition of black swan. You can't 429 00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:50,439 Speaker 1: see it, but hey, black swans, black squirrels maybe I 430 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:54,000 Speaker 1: don't know. You know, it's it's hard to maybe more 431 00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:56,920 Speaker 1: blackly black squirrels. I mean in the sense that you don't. 432 00:20:57,720 --> 00:20:59,280 Speaker 1: I think that a lot of the trend, there's a 433 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:02,320 Speaker 1: lot of momentum here um that's gone on. Um that's 434 00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:03,960 Speaker 1: going to be pretty hard to turn back. And if 435 00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:07,200 Speaker 1: if you need any sort of proof of that, maybe 436 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:09,120 Speaker 1: look at the last couple of years. I mean, from 437 00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:12,199 Speaker 1: a policy perspective, the Trump administration has tried to do 438 00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:16,640 Speaker 1: kind of whatever they can to support the coal industry, 439 00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:19,760 Speaker 1: and yet the amount of coal generation dropped really sharply 440 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:22,680 Speaker 1: last year. The number of coal plants that say they're 441 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:25,720 Speaker 1: retiring is definitely not easing up. There's like another twenty 442 00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:27,960 Speaker 1: five giga watts of coal that's said that they're gonna 443 00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:31,800 Speaker 1: retire over the next five years. So I take that 444 00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:33,600 Speaker 1: as sort of proof that there is a kind of 445 00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:36,960 Speaker 1: momentum here that really isn't going to get knocked off course, 446 00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:39,240 Speaker 1: at least by policy. I guess there are other questions 447 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:42,439 Speaker 1: about other things that that could come up um as 448 00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:45,480 Speaker 1: we go forward, and of course, you know, you never know. Certainly, 449 00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:47,960 Speaker 1: the coronavirus as we speak is a scary thing, and 450 00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:49,560 Speaker 1: who knows what kind of effect that can have on 451 00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:52,320 Speaker 1: markets and things like that. And there's trade. But but 452 00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:54,439 Speaker 1: generally I think it's gonna be hard to kind of 453 00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:57,080 Speaker 1: stop the momentum what we've seen. I think I have 454 00:21:57,119 --> 00:21:59,880 Speaker 1: one more question for you. You run the America's for being, 455 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:03,200 Speaker 1: if not just the US, are you seeing what's happening 456 00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:05,119 Speaker 1: in the US happened in other markets as well, or 457 00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:08,440 Speaker 1: is it unique to the US the questions. So I'll 458 00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:10,840 Speaker 1: maybe not try to go country by country because we'll 459 00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:12,680 Speaker 1: take too long. But I mean, I think Canada is 460 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:15,119 Speaker 1: an interesting case where we're definitely seeing a lot of 461 00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:18,920 Speaker 1: things go on. However, the Canadian power sector in particular 462 00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:22,000 Speaker 1: is already pretty decarbonized because they get so much hydro 463 00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:26,680 Speaker 1: electric power to begin with, where coal is still prevalent, 464 00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:31,200 Speaker 1: which is out in the province of of Alberta. Um 465 00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:34,480 Speaker 1: they are actually also we're seeing a lot of transition underway, 466 00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:38,160 Speaker 1: although some political challenges out there. The rest. You look 467 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:40,879 Speaker 1: further south, Mexico has traditionally been one of the hottest 468 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:44,480 Speaker 1: markets that we've seen, but the current government is definitely 469 00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,600 Speaker 1: raising some problems for the industry down there. And then 470 00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:51,239 Speaker 1: across the rest of Latin America, Brazil is a fascinating one. 471 00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,400 Speaker 1: I would just say to keep an eye on because suddenly, 472 00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:55,800 Speaker 1: like almost overnight, there's a couple of gigga outs of 473 00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:58,560 Speaker 1: distributed solar that's just like boom popped up, and and 474 00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:00,639 Speaker 1: that's a market that we just know it's just to 475 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:03,840 Speaker 1: come out of nowhere to some large degree. So that's 476 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:06,840 Speaker 1: one that we'll have to see. Um. But they're they're 477 00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:09,080 Speaker 1: you know, the the story of lad i Am is 478 00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:11,960 Speaker 1: obviously very different from the US of Mexico because these 479 00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:16,359 Speaker 1: are middle income developing countries potentially with much faster growth. 480 00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:20,359 Speaker 1: You know, we don't really have actual top line growth 481 00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:22,880 Speaker 1: and electricity demand in the US. It basically flat has 482 00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:26,959 Speaker 1: been for a decade, and Canada is not that different either, Ethan. 483 00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:32,080 Speaker 1: Thanks for coming in sure, thank you. Bloombergun e F 484 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,160 Speaker 1: is a service provided by Bloomberg Finance LP and its affiliates. 485 00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:37,399 Speaker 1: This recording does not constitute, nor it should it be 486 00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:41,560 Speaker 1: construed as investment advice, investment recommendations, or a recommendation as 487 00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:44,359 Speaker 1: to an investment or other strategy. Bloomberguinn ea F should 488 00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:47,000 Speaker 1: not be considered as information sufficient upon which to base 489 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:50,560 Speaker 1: an investment decision. Neither Bloomberg Finance LP nor any of 490 00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:53,600 Speaker 1: its affiliates makes any representation or warranty as to the 491 00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:56,880 Speaker 1: accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this recording, 492 00:23:56,920 --> 00:23:59,240 Speaker 1: and any liability as a result of this recording is 493 00:23:59,240 --> 00:23:59,960 Speaker 1: expressly discla