1 00:00:04,480 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to Stephanomics, the podcast that brings the 2 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 1: global economy to you. You couldn't write an economic history 3 00:00:14,960 --> 00:00:19,239 Speaker 1: of the past fifty years without multiple mentions of poor Volca, 4 00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:21,799 Speaker 1: who died this week at the age of ninety two. 5 00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:25,040 Speaker 1: If you think about it, he played a key role 6 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 1: in not one, not two, but three of the financial 7 00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:31,960 Speaker 1: landmark events of the past half century. He advised President 8 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:34,879 Speaker 1: Nixon on the decision to leave the gold standard, which 9 00:00:35,000 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 1: led to the collapse of the whole post war Breton 10 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:42,080 Speaker 1: Wood system in one then, most famously, as Chair of 11 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:44,519 Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve for much of the eighties, he forced 12 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 1: the US Central Bank to do what it took to 13 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 1: confront inflation, even when what it took was a deep 14 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:54,600 Speaker 1: recession and a soaring dollar. And then he was still 15 00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:59,240 Speaker 1: around in two thousand and eight advising President Obama on 16 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:02,800 Speaker 1: how to cope with fallout from the global financial crisis, 17 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 1: devising new rules for banks which remain in diluted form today. 18 00:01:07,720 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 1: Has a massive legacy which I'm going to discuss with 19 00:01:10,880 --> 00:01:15,119 Speaker 1: Paul Boker's co author Bloomberg's Christine Harper in a few minutes. 20 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:19,000 Speaker 1: But first, India. Now India is a lot to get 21 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 1: your head round. Even for so called experts, you'll surely 22 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:24,880 Speaker 1: know that it's got more than a billion people living 23 00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:26,920 Speaker 1: in it. But along with that, it has twenty three 24 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 1: major languages, eighty five political parties, and three hundred ways 25 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:34,640 Speaker 1: of cooking potato. It also has an ambitious Prime minister 26 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 1: Knownrid Moody, who, like President Trump, has thrived by breaking 27 00:01:39,520 --> 00:01:43,120 Speaker 1: with traditional models of how politicians should behave. But now 28 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 1: the economy is hitting trouble and so is he. In 29 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:48,800 Speaker 1: a few minutes, I'll ask our India economist Abushek Gupta 30 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:51,120 Speaker 1: whether the Prime Minister Moody has the capacity to turn 31 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 1: things round. But first, Bloomberg Economy reporter Annoban Nag has 32 00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 1: this report from the diamond mines of West central India. 33 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:10,200 Speaker 1: Take diamonds, Hollywood, A listeners and a two billion dollar 34 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:13,640 Speaker 1: fraud and you have all the ingredients of made for 35 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 1: TV scandal that had all India paying attention. So there 36 00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:21,920 Speaker 1: you have it. Now, Enforcement directed reading the offices of 37 00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:24,840 Speaker 1: need A Moody, the famous jeweler who's really at the 38 00:02:24,919 --> 00:02:30,400 Speaker 1: center of this entire scandal at the Punjab National Police 39 00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:35,040 Speaker 1: rated the officers of Diamond mogul Nero Moody to investigate 40 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:41,359 Speaker 1: an Alex scam involving fake guarantees and sham transactions. Moody, 41 00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:45,040 Speaker 1: who's not related to Prime Minister Narrendra Modi, was once 42 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: a joweler to the stars. He had boutiques in London, 43 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:55,399 Speaker 1: Hong Kong and Mumbai. Nero Mody has denied wrongdoing. He's 44 00:02:55,440 --> 00:03:01,360 Speaker 1: currently being held in the UK and fighting extradition to India. Meanwhile, 45 00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:06,240 Speaker 1: India's renowned precious stone dealers are still reeling from the reprocursions. 46 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:08,440 Speaker 1: After it was first alerted of the bank loot in 47 00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:11,840 Speaker 1: the sixteenth of January, it took Punjab National Bank almost 48 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:16,880 Speaker 1: a month to understand the extent and gravity. India's low 49 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 1: cost and high scale labor has turned the country into 50 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:25,079 Speaker 1: a hub of global jewelry. India exports of the words 51 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:30,240 Speaker 1: polish diamonds, according to the industry's Export Promotion Council, many 52 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:34,200 Speaker 1: of which end up in engagement rings and diamond bracelets 53 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:46,600 Speaker 1: sold a jewelers like Tiffany's. According to the government, the 54 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 1: sector employs nearly five million workers, accounting for almost seven 55 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 1: percent of GDP, but the industry has been in serious 56 00:03:54,880 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 1: trouble since the scandal broke, workers are losing jobs and 57 00:04:01,360 --> 00:04:05,839 Speaker 1: businesses are shutting shops. If anything is to go by 58 00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:10,400 Speaker 1: this way, Prime Minister Modi has little chance of achieving 59 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:14,520 Speaker 1: his goal of reaching one trillion dollars in annual exports 60 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 1: over the next five years. It's also weighing on the 61 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:25,000 Speaker 1: broader economy. So what went wrong? For answers, we went 62 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 1: to the diamond hub of Surat. The city is a 63 00:04:28,480 --> 00:04:31,920 Speaker 1: three and a half hour train journey north from India's 64 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:36,679 Speaker 1: financial capital Mumbai. It's home to over a million people 65 00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:41,160 Speaker 1: employed in the sector, including the skilled artisans that polished 66 00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:45,560 Speaker 1: their diamonds. Many of them migrate from elsewhere in India, 67 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 1: attracted by the prospects of higher income bubble by Criteria 68 00:04:51,520 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 1: started off as one such artisan about four decades ago, 69 00:04:55,720 --> 00:05:00,440 Speaker 1: and he now has the Seut Diamond Association. He wears 70 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:03,560 Speaker 1: a yellow and red thread around his right hand, an 71 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:07,559 Speaker 1: amulet worn by many of India's Hindus to protect someone 72 00:05:07,640 --> 00:05:12,239 Speaker 1: from trouble. It's a protection that his industry really needs 73 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 1: right now. I have seen many slowdowns in my more 74 00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:22,919 Speaker 1: than forty year career in the diamond industry. The last 75 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:26,599 Speaker 1: time it was severe was in two thousand eight. But 76 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:32,120 Speaker 1: conditions had normalized after a couple of months. But this 77 00:05:32,279 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 1: time the slowdowns has dragged on for seven eight months 78 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:42,600 Speaker 1: now and has hurt a business immensely. How with the 79 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 1: Sponde is a skilled artisan with nearly two decades of experience. 80 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:51,320 Speaker 1: Five months ago, he reported to work at one of 81 00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:55,120 Speaker 1: the thousands of diamond polishing factories, only to find the 82 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:59,560 Speaker 1: doors locked. The owner of the company had pulled down 83 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:02,760 Speaker 1: the shut ors overnight and fled without telling any of 84 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:06,640 Speaker 1: his forty workers. We were unable to track down the 85 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:12,520 Speaker 1: owner for comment. Ponde, who's thirty three, moved to Suos 86 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:16,239 Speaker 1: from across the country following the footsteps of his elder brother. 87 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:20,839 Speaker 1: Before losing his job, used to own the equivalent of 88 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 1: around three d and fifteen dollars a month, roughly double 89 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:29,600 Speaker 1: the country's per capita income. But Ponde is now boring 90 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:32,719 Speaker 1: money from friends to pay the rent on his one 91 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 1: room house and the tuition for his two kids. The 92 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:42,880 Speaker 1: owners shut shop without paying us our monthly salary. I 93 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:46,040 Speaker 1: have been roaming the streets in the past month and 94 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:49,960 Speaker 1: more trying to get another job. They leave in the 95 00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:53,680 Speaker 1: morning and come back home in the evening, but no luck. 96 00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:59,040 Speaker 1: Some factories say they don't have demand. Some say they 97 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:03,440 Speaker 1: don't have rough diamonds. The outcry following the near of 98 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:08,480 Speaker 1: Mody scandal has created an atmosphere of distrust between banks 99 00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:13,840 Speaker 1: and jeweler's. Rob Vrani is a second generation director and 100 00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 1: be Vranian Company, a diamond cutting and polishing firm in Sura. 101 00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 1: He talked to us in his Glass World office about 102 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:28,240 Speaker 1: the factory floor. Behind him hangs his NBA diploma from 103 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:32,960 Speaker 1: Canada's Ryerson University. So liquidity crunches is one of the 104 00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:35,240 Speaker 1: biggest problem. That is that kind of has you know, 105 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:39,680 Speaker 1: made this crisis even worse so because of these certain 106 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 1: companies that do want ethical practices, right bank have I 107 00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 1: think all of a sudden they've said that we don't 108 00:07:45,080 --> 00:07:47,560 Speaker 1: want to give credit to the diamond industry because there 109 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:51,600 Speaker 1: are there are many cases you know that. In addition, 110 00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 1: the trade war between China and the US has put 111 00:07:55,040 --> 00:08:00,080 Speaker 1: a dampener on sales. Vrani said. While the US is 112 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:03,800 Speaker 1: the biggest consumer of Indian diamonds, a lot of stones 113 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:10,640 Speaker 1: transit through China for jewelry manufacturing or wholesale trading, with 114 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:14,080 Speaker 1: the U s cutting its purchases of Chinese goods. The 115 00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 1: Indian gem industry has felt the impact. So although India 116 00:08:19,280 --> 00:08:22,640 Speaker 1: is not part of any global supply chain, exports have 117 00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:27,200 Speaker 1: been hit, dragging down overall economic growth to four point 118 00:08:27,280 --> 00:08:30,520 Speaker 1: five percent in the third quarter. It's lowest in six 119 00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 1: years back in sorl It's hard times as employment in 120 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:40,839 Speaker 1: the industry has fallen and incomes for skilled artisans has 121 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:44,200 Speaker 1: been reduced by more than sev in the past few months. 122 00:08:44,559 --> 00:08:49,960 Speaker 1: According to industry groups pour of A, the Sponde, the 123 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 1: Skilled Artisan it's a bleak and hard struggle, mirroring much 124 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:57,760 Speaker 1: of the slowdown in the economy when they had. I 125 00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:02,760 Speaker 1: am so stressed right now. If this environment continues, then 126 00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:06,160 Speaker 1: I have to consider leaving the industry and go back 127 00:09:06,200 --> 00:09:09,000 Speaker 1: to the village and work in the field for a 128 00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:15,360 Speaker 1: much less money. For Bloomberg News, I'm on near one now. 129 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:30,040 Speaker 1: So Abushek Gupta is Bloomberg's India economist. He's got a 130 00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 1: bit famous in the Indian market circles for disagreeing with 131 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:37,520 Speaker 1: other economists in Mumbai over what the Central Bank of 132 00:09:37,520 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 1: India is going to do next, and I should say 133 00:09:39,760 --> 00:09:43,920 Speaker 1: he's more often right than wrong. Abishek, thank you very 134 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 1: much for joining us. Thanks a lot, Stephanie for having 135 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:49,680 Speaker 1: me on the show. It's a pleasure. So those of 136 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 1: us who are not necessarily following every twist and turn 137 00:09:53,120 --> 00:09:57,080 Speaker 1: of the Central banks policies or indeed the Government of 138 00:09:57,160 --> 00:10:00,480 Speaker 1: India's policies, you know, we hear that story there from 139 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:04,280 Speaker 1: Annaba Nag about how the diamond industry has been affected 140 00:10:04,320 --> 00:10:08,240 Speaker 1: by trade wars and by the slowing of the Indian economy. 141 00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:11,200 Speaker 1: If we step back from the day to day of 142 00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:14,800 Speaker 1: central bank policy and what's going on a month to 143 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 1: month with the economy, you know, most people will have noticed. 144 00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:21,920 Speaker 1: I think when No Injury Moody came to office in 145 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:25,640 Speaker 1: India in fourteen he got reelected again um this year, 146 00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:28,760 Speaker 1: there was a lot of talk about major reform and 147 00:10:28,920 --> 00:10:32,520 Speaker 1: putting the economy on a completely different trajectory. We have 148 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 1: seen reforms, but if you look at the state of 149 00:10:35,280 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 1: the economy, it doesn't look that great. What's happened, Stephanie, 150 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:42,320 Speaker 1: I think that that's that's a great question. And indeed, 151 00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:45,560 Speaker 1: if you look at No into more these drag record 152 00:10:45,640 --> 00:10:49,040 Speaker 1: over the last few years, he has certainly delivered on 153 00:10:49,120 --> 00:10:53,280 Speaker 1: a lot of significant structional reforms, I'll say, but the 154 00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:57,200 Speaker 1: way I think about these reforms is that they aren't 155 00:10:57,200 --> 00:11:01,960 Speaker 1: necessarily growth in anything at least in the short run. 156 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:06,200 Speaker 1: They prove efficiency and productivity over the medium term, but 157 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:09,560 Speaker 1: what's exactly happening in the near term. For instance, let's 158 00:11:09,559 --> 00:11:12,679 Speaker 1: just pick up one of the reforms, like Marin Smoothie 159 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:17,240 Speaker 1: delivered on a new bankruptcy law for India, and under 160 00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 1: this law, what's happening is that, or instance, bad assets 161 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:25,080 Speaker 1: would now be changing hands, so from an old promoter 162 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:28,600 Speaker 1: to a new promoter, and that and sometimes things get 163 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:32,320 Speaker 1: delayed in the legal process and stuff like this would 164 00:11:32,400 --> 00:11:36,360 Speaker 1: negatively impact the economic activity of that secution it in 165 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:39,679 Speaker 1: the short run, and similarly for other reforms as well, 166 00:11:40,080 --> 00:11:43,280 Speaker 1: in the short run, in the initial years of these reforms, 167 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:47,719 Speaker 1: uh this that's uh, there's a transition phase which kind 168 00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:51,360 Speaker 1: of slows things down. Having said that, my sense would 169 00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:54,160 Speaker 1: have been that over the past few years, things should 170 00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:57,679 Speaker 1: have already started looking up by now, but that has 171 00:11:57,720 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 1: not been the case, And I kind of put the 172 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:06,080 Speaker 1: blame more on not sufficient monitor easy rather than not 173 00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:11,440 Speaker 1: more reforms. So clearly, I think Monkey policy could have 174 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:15,120 Speaker 1: done a lot more to support government structural reforms. Barallelly, 175 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:18,720 Speaker 1: but that hasn't been the case so far. Yeah, and 176 00:12:18,760 --> 00:12:21,199 Speaker 1: it's true you've had you you were very critical and 177 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:25,800 Speaker 1: particularly of the previous head of the Reserve Bank of India. 178 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 1: Um and when when the when Moody effectively got rid 179 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 1: of him. You know, often when when governments interfere with 180 00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 1: who's going to run the central bank, there's a lot 181 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 1: of concern in the markets about the independence of the 182 00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:43,680 Speaker 1: central bank being violated. But it was striking that there 183 00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 1: was not that kind of reaction from the markets when 184 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 1: that happened, perhaps because investors agree with you that that 185 00:12:49,559 --> 00:12:53,200 Speaker 1: the bank had been too tight. Yes, certainly that has 186 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:55,360 Speaker 1: been the case. In fact, one of the key even 187 00:12:55,800 --> 00:13:00,400 Speaker 1: holding back India's economy is the weak state of uh 188 00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:05,400 Speaker 1: India's shadow banking sector. There are these non bank finance 189 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:09,920 Speaker 1: companies in India which essentially are extending credit to consumers 190 00:13:10,040 --> 00:13:15,320 Speaker 1: and housing finance companies, and these companies were quite negatively 191 00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:20,000 Speaker 1: impacted due to a liquidly crunch which was created in 192 00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:24,920 Speaker 1: the economy in late twenty eighteen under the earlier RB governorate. 193 00:13:25,760 --> 00:13:28,600 Speaker 1: Over the last year, the new Central Bank governor has 194 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:32,040 Speaker 1: reversed some of those politty mistakes and we have seen 195 00:13:32,480 --> 00:13:36,679 Speaker 1: credit spreads come down for the better rated companies, but 196 00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:39,600 Speaker 1: some of the weak created companies, the credit spreads are 197 00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:43,880 Speaker 1: still widening. And and that is financial financial shock that 198 00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:46,240 Speaker 1: needs to be eased. I mean, we we've we had 199 00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:48,840 Speaker 1: a bit in that piece about the pain that some 200 00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 1: of that the financial squeeze is causing in the diamond 201 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 1: sector and for some for some in that region. But 202 00:13:56,800 --> 00:14:02,520 Speaker 1: obviously this is an enormously diverse economy. Um, the rural 203 00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:06,880 Speaker 1: sectors particularly important, not just economically but politically. If you're 204 00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:11,280 Speaker 1: sitting in a rural area, how have how have you 205 00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:14,679 Speaker 1: really felt the impact of Prime Minister Moodi or maybe 206 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:19,320 Speaker 1: you haven't felt that much different that's a separate discussion altogether. 207 00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:22,920 Speaker 1: So I mean, if you look at Prime Minister Marrieds 208 00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:28,400 Speaker 1: Moodies policies, he has also reinvented himself in the in 209 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:32,600 Speaker 1: his political party, the b JP, in terms of delivering 210 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:37,280 Speaker 1: more welfare oriented policies of the rural pool. In fact, 211 00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:41,720 Speaker 1: if you sort of talk about giving free gas cylinder 212 00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:45,480 Speaker 1: than gas connections, that that's being a very popular policy. 213 00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:49,640 Speaker 1: Constructing toilets that has been another major campaign of his. 214 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:55,360 Speaker 1: And besides that, he's also increased electrification in rural villages 215 00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 1: and opened bank accounts for for the rural poor. And 216 00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:04,080 Speaker 1: just this year he had announced an income support package 217 00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 1: for farmers. So I think he has done a lot 218 00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:11,640 Speaker 1: for the rural poor. However, the impact of that has 219 00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:16,200 Speaker 1: been missing in terms of consumption. But probably the rural 220 00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:20,680 Speaker 1: economy has benefited from American movies policies. And if you 221 00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:23,600 Speaker 1: speak to taxi drivers in India who kind of come 222 00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 1: from some of these rural villages in smaller towns, they 223 00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:33,400 Speaker 1: do confirmed that either they themselves and their families or 224 00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:37,400 Speaker 1: the extended families people have benefited from reading the movies policies. 225 00:15:37,440 --> 00:15:41,720 Speaker 1: So so he is popular in rural India as well. Hm, 226 00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:44,680 Speaker 1: that's interesting. I mean, I I guess people from a 227 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:47,240 Speaker 1: distance will be wondering. I mean, he's a He's a 228 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:50,240 Speaker 1: prime minister who has been controversial often outside of India 229 00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:56,560 Speaker 1: for his treatment of people in Kashmir. He's violated the 230 00:15:56,680 --> 00:15:58,960 Speaker 1: human rights in some ways or has been criticized for that. 231 00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:01,960 Speaker 1: He's also um not always been a fan of of 232 00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:06,520 Speaker 1: of press freedom. I think investors have sort of weighed 233 00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:10,160 Speaker 1: that against his ability to get the economy going. But 234 00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:14,760 Speaker 1: how important is it for his future to really change 235 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:16,760 Speaker 1: the performance of the economy, or is he in a 236 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:20,120 Speaker 1: is he in a strong enough now position politically that 237 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:24,360 Speaker 1: he just needs to avoid a big recession. I think 238 00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:26,960 Speaker 1: that that's that's a very important question that that hits 239 00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:30,040 Speaker 1: said the point in terms of what will drive his 240 00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:33,720 Speaker 1: re election in two um. If you look at the 241 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:36,640 Speaker 1: first year of a second term, he has had great 242 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:42,440 Speaker 1: success in terms of delivering policies and legislation that appeals 243 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 1: to his majority in the water base. Be it as 244 00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:49,920 Speaker 1: you said, the application of Article three seventeen englishmir on 245 00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:54,360 Speaker 1: the Supreme Court ruling in favor of a temple um 246 00:16:55,800 --> 00:17:00,720 Speaker 1: or the current sort of ship amendment will which is 247 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:05,560 Speaker 1: uh we just got past yesterday in the Parliament, which 248 00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:10,320 Speaker 1: discriminates against Muslims. So all of these kinds of things 249 00:17:10,840 --> 00:17:16,040 Speaker 1: do appeal to those database and have maintained his popularity 250 00:17:16,600 --> 00:17:20,480 Speaker 1: with the masters. But my sense is that this is 251 00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:23,280 Speaker 1: not what is going to count in four And I 252 00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:27,000 Speaker 1: think even he understands the importance of reviving the economy 253 00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:32,080 Speaker 1: because he had initially in twenty fourteen run on the 254 00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 1: end of development and he needs to bring economic prosperity 255 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:42,359 Speaker 1: and bring jobs for the junk demographic force, which is 256 00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:46,240 Speaker 1: coming into the job market, and that is why he 257 00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:50,960 Speaker 1: has been focusing a lot on this dollar five brillion economy. Well, 258 00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:54,879 Speaker 1: we will watch and wait, bishek Upta, thank you very much. Thanks. 259 00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:04,439 Speaker 1: I said something about Paul Volca at the beginning of 260 00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:08,440 Speaker 1: the program. Who's died this week, But someone who got 261 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:10,399 Speaker 1: to spend a lot of time with him in the 262 00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:14,160 Speaker 1: last few years is Bloomberg's own Christine Harper, whose editor 263 00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:18,760 Speaker 1: of Markets magazine but also wrote with Paul Vocer a 264 00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 1: memoir keeping at It, The Quest for Sound Money and 265 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:26,440 Speaker 1: Good Government, which only came out a year ago. Christine, 266 00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:30,560 Speaker 1: I know you've you've written and had conversations with people 267 00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:33,639 Speaker 1: in the last few days since Paul Voker died. I 268 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:37,920 Speaker 1: guess one question to ask you is about the difference 269 00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:41,280 Speaker 1: between the legend of Paul Volca, who I certainly found 270 00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:44,800 Speaker 1: quite scary the few times that I interviewed him, not 271 00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:48,680 Speaker 1: least because he was so tall, and the man that 272 00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 1: that you got to know in writing this book because 273 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:52,639 Speaker 1: it didn't quite work out the way you thought it 274 00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:55,080 Speaker 1: was going to go. Yes, I would say that's true. 275 00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:59,440 Speaker 1: And my understanding is that most people who have had 276 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:03,040 Speaker 1: some personal dealings with him have come away with the 277 00:19:03,080 --> 00:19:06,280 Speaker 1: same conclusion, which is that he has this very forbidding 278 00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 1: public persona. I mean, if you look at the you know, 279 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:13,000 Speaker 1: the photography UM taken while he was fed chairman, or 280 00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:15,520 Speaker 1: the or the caricatures that were drawn of him, he 281 00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:18,719 Speaker 1: was always as a sort of Olympian godlike figure glowering 282 00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:21,720 Speaker 1: down at the mere mortals, who were you know, screwing 283 00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:24,639 Speaker 1: up the planet um. And so he did have this 284 00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:27,680 Speaker 1: He had this kind of Old Testament quality to him. 285 00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:31,960 Speaker 1: But once you met him in person, he was absolutely 286 00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:35,000 Speaker 1: a sweetie pie. He was one of those people who 287 00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:39,840 Speaker 1: seem like rough and could use that fearsome persona to 288 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:45,080 Speaker 1: sort of achieve outcomes he wanted and take on, you know, 289 00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:50,960 Speaker 1: people or institutions he felt weren't living up to their requirements. 290 00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:54,159 Speaker 1: But he loved people and he was. He was actually 291 00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:59,040 Speaker 1: quite shy, and he was very humorous, and he was 292 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:04,119 Speaker 1: unbelievable the kind. So when I first met him, I was, 293 00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:08,920 Speaker 1: I think, like anybody, quite nervous, and he instantly won 294 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:12,880 Speaker 1: me over. He was very funny, love telling stories, chuckled 295 00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:16,639 Speaker 1: a lot, and was always smiling, nothing like what I expected, 296 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:20,000 Speaker 1: And as I got to know him more, part of 297 00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 1: what I really enjoyed talking to him was, of course 298 00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:25,399 Speaker 1: he had amazing stories about knowing everybody from you know, 299 00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:29,480 Speaker 1: the leaders of basically every country. He served under six presidents. 300 00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:33,080 Speaker 1: You know, he's he's had this kind of incredible career. 301 00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:37,040 Speaker 1: But but he also loved to talk about the crossword 302 00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 1: puzzle or he was a passionate home cook, and he 303 00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:43,040 Speaker 1: would talk about the recipes in the New York Times. 304 00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:45,280 Speaker 1: And you know, when he found an editing error, he 305 00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:49,240 Speaker 1: would he would relish that he'd found something like that. Um. 306 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:52,160 Speaker 1: He was really fun to be around and really pleasant 307 00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:57,560 Speaker 1: and kind and uh and I think in some ways, 308 00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 1: you know, he he stood for for the people in 309 00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:04,760 Speaker 1: what he tried to do publicly, he always put himself 310 00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:08,760 Speaker 1: as somebody who wanted to take on corrupt influences and 311 00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:11,280 Speaker 1: and make the government better and make the economy better 312 00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:14,760 Speaker 1: for for the for the people. But he really did 313 00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:17,119 Speaker 1: love people. He you know, he took the regular city 314 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,320 Speaker 1: bus to and from his office until he was ninety 315 00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:23,480 Speaker 1: years old. He didn't put himself apart. He he really 316 00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:26,199 Speaker 1: saw himself as a public servant. I thought I was 317 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:29,119 Speaker 1: smiling at one of the comments in the Bitteries about 318 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:32,359 Speaker 1: him often having shiny suits. You could imagine the Wall 319 00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:35,520 Speaker 1: Street people being a bit sniffy about him not having 320 00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:38,280 Speaker 1: spent money on his suits when he was FED chairman, 321 00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:42,000 Speaker 1: you know, famously, he sort of got a little studio 322 00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:45,280 Speaker 1: apartment in a building close to the FED that was 323 00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:49,560 Speaker 1: basically all you know, college students living there. And he 324 00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:52,359 Speaker 1: had I think a table, a chair, a bed, and 325 00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:55,800 Speaker 1: some milk crates. And he would take his laundry to 326 00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:58,600 Speaker 1: his daughters who lived nearby, to get it done every week. 327 00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:00,879 Speaker 1: And you know that's because his wife was stayed up 328 00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:02,960 Speaker 1: in New York and was was quite ill, and she 329 00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:05,119 Speaker 1: was taking care of their son, who had some disabilities, 330 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:07,560 Speaker 1: and she didn't want to move. So he just lived 331 00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:09,960 Speaker 1: like this bachelor and flew back home every weekend. He 332 00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:12,840 Speaker 1: really didn't care about things. I mean, I remember him 333 00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:15,760 Speaker 1: once telling me he thought all of the furniture in 334 00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:18,439 Speaker 1: his apartment, which was quite a nice apartment in New 335 00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:20,560 Speaker 1: York that he bought at the bottom of the real 336 00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:24,080 Speaker 1: estate market in nineteen seventy three or something, all of 337 00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:26,960 Speaker 1: that furniture was probably you know, fifty years old or something. 338 00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:30,399 Speaker 1: He didn't he didn't really care um. He cared about people. 339 00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 1: He cared about UM principles, UM. He cared that society 340 00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:39,840 Speaker 1: do right by people. But he wasn't he was a materialistic, 341 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:43,800 Speaker 1: He wasn't selfish. I was. I was appalled that was 342 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:46,000 Speaker 1: an event a few years ago that I was speaking 343 00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:48,040 Speaker 1: at was a sort of private thing of people thinking 344 00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:49,919 Speaker 1: about the global economy. And I was a pulled when 345 00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:51,480 Speaker 1: I saw the program that I was supposed to be 346 00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:55,080 Speaker 1: co presenting with Paul Volka. And then I rapidly realized 347 00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:57,120 Speaker 1: that it was actually quite liberating because it wouldn't matter 348 00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,399 Speaker 1: at all what I said, because people would really just 349 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:01,960 Speaker 1: what he said. But what did you find? I mean, 350 00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:06,639 Speaker 1: did you find that he was actually quite cheerful? And 351 00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:11,640 Speaker 1: it was also increasingly he had and we've spoken about 352 00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 1: this in the past. I mean that he was getting 353 00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:18,000 Speaker 1: on and he certainly and he had his voice was definitely, 354 00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:20,880 Speaker 1: you know, reflected his age. So sometimes when you're interviewing him, 355 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,720 Speaker 1: at least the first time I interviewed him, I found 356 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:27,520 Speaker 1: it sort of disconcerting that I was I was expecting 357 00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:29,800 Speaker 1: this person to play a crucial role in whatever piece 358 00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:32,960 Speaker 1: I was doing and deliver this great interview, and yet 359 00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:35,320 Speaker 1: he seemed, you know, he was in his late eighties 360 00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:37,320 Speaker 1: and would he possibly deliver. But then, of course you 361 00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:40,200 Speaker 1: the moment he started talking, you realized that he had 362 00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:43,920 Speaker 1: not only really prepared for the interview, but had incredibly 363 00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:46,280 Speaker 1: wise and sharp things to say that you wouldn't have 364 00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:48,680 Speaker 1: got from anyone out. So I always I did found 365 00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:50,520 Speaker 1: it a pleasure of that you had to, as you say, 366 00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:54,240 Speaker 1: you have to get past that rather intimidating demeanor, where 367 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:56,320 Speaker 1: he did often seem to be sort of scowling when 368 00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:58,280 Speaker 1: I don't. I don't think he was. But we've talked 369 00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:00,480 Speaker 1: a lot about the personal stuff, which I think is 370 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:04,119 Speaker 1: is always important to remember and a nice thing to 371 00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:07,440 Speaker 1: remember this week. But I'm of course people will also 372 00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:09,879 Speaker 1: be interested, particularly since you got to know him in 373 00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:13,840 Speaker 1: the last few years, of what his attitude was to 374 00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:22,240 Speaker 1: the current members of the American administration and particularly Donald Trump. Yes, well, um, 375 00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:26,840 Speaker 1: that was a constant source of frustration, because I think 376 00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:30,359 Speaker 1: one of the things about him that made him really 377 00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:32,760 Speaker 1: different was that even though he could he could have 378 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:36,040 Speaker 1: a quite harsh judgment uncertain things if he felt they 379 00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:38,920 Speaker 1: were clearly wrong, Like he had no tolerance for sort 380 00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:42,720 Speaker 1: of people he felt were overpaid and you know, enriched themselves, 381 00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:46,240 Speaker 1: at the expense of their customers or the public, or 382 00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:50,040 Speaker 1: or you know who corrupted institutions. But he he was 383 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,920 Speaker 1: he was an other in many other respects, this incredibly 384 00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:56,159 Speaker 1: pragmatic and this incredible sort of tolerant person. So he 385 00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:59,400 Speaker 1: wanted to give everybody the benefit of the doubt. So 386 00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:02,440 Speaker 1: as much as you know, I and I know other 387 00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:04,680 Speaker 1: people were trying to kind of get him to come 388 00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:08,800 Speaker 1: out and you know, cast strong views on the situation, 389 00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:10,720 Speaker 1: I think you know, he served under six presidents, he 390 00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:14,639 Speaker 1: served under Nixon, he served under you know, LBJ and Kennedy. 391 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:18,159 Speaker 1: He'd seen a lot of things, and so he was 392 00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:21,960 Speaker 1: patient in a way that not many people are. Um. 393 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:25,439 Speaker 1: I do know that at the end Um and you know, 394 00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:29,399 Speaker 1: he worked with me on a afterward for the paperback 395 00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:33,639 Speaker 1: version of his book. He he expressed more concerned about 396 00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:35,960 Speaker 1: the state of the world because in his book, in 397 00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:39,359 Speaker 1: the book he um he talked about how you know, 398 00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:42,800 Speaker 1: his mother had admonished him that things can look bad, 399 00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:44,920 Speaker 1: but this country has gotten through a lot and will 400 00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:47,560 Speaker 1: continue to be okay. But he wasn't so sure he 401 00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,840 Speaker 1: believed that anymore. He was very concerned about those sort 402 00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:53,960 Speaker 1: of forces of you know that we're just sort of 403 00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:57,760 Speaker 1: out there fighting facts, fighting science, you know, um, just 404 00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:01,600 Speaker 1: you know, it would seemingly no scorn about the good 405 00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:06,199 Speaker 1: of the country and of humanity. And so you know, 406 00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:10,320 Speaker 1: he didn't like to name names, um, but he I 407 00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:13,000 Speaker 1: think he was very, very displeased at at what he 408 00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:16,000 Speaker 1: sees going on in the country. And I'll also say, 409 00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:18,600 Speaker 1: you know, he was he was quite a fan of 410 00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:21,040 Speaker 1: of the FED, but he was very disappointed and how 411 00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:24,120 Speaker 1: they watered down the Vulkar rule in the last couple 412 00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,159 Speaker 1: of months. He had sent up a letter to J. 413 00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:29,359 Speaker 1: Powell warning him not to do that, and they went 414 00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:32,199 Speaker 1: ahead and did that, and he was not happy about that. 415 00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:34,399 Speaker 1: He thought that was a big mistake. The rule, the 416 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,359 Speaker 1: rule that had been the response to the global financial 417 00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:43,200 Speaker 1: christ kind of constrain strain banks from taking excessive risks. Well, Christine, 418 00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:44,560 Speaker 1: thank you very much. I mean, I think that the 419 00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:47,720 Speaker 1: overriding conclusion, and when you read all these obituaries is 420 00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,960 Speaker 1: what a consummate public servant he was. And I certainly 421 00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:53,520 Speaker 1: hope that one of these days those kind of public 422 00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:56,920 Speaker 1: servants will will come back into favor. Yes, I think 423 00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:59,760 Speaker 1: that's more than anything what he wanted. His legacy to 424 00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:02,400 Speaker 1: be as an example for other people to follow into 425 00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:05,320 Speaker 1: public service and into really believing that it was a 426 00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:09,120 Speaker 1: noble calling, because he certainly felt it was. Where you'll 427 00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:17,720 Speaker 1: see Christine, thank you very much, Thank you, thanks for 428 00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:21,080 Speaker 1: listening to Stephanomics. We'll be back next week. In the meantime, 429 00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:23,720 Speaker 1: you can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal, website, app 430 00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:26,359 Speaker 1: or wherever you get your podcasts. And for more news 431 00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:29,440 Speaker 1: and analysis through the week from Bloomberg Economics, follow at 432 00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:32,480 Speaker 1: Economics on Twitter. You can also find me on at 433 00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:35,960 Speaker 1: my Stephanomics. The story in this episode was written and 434 00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:40,280 Speaker 1: reported by Swansea Afonso and Anniban nag. It was edited 435 00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:44,320 Speaker 1: by Bruce Douglas and produced by Magnus Hendrickson. Special thanks 436 00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:49,080 Speaker 1: to a Bushek Gupta, Christine Harper, and Nesserene Syria. Scott 437 00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:52,240 Speaker 1: Lammon is the executive producer of Stephanomics and the head 438 00:27:52,280 --> 00:28:04,080 Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Podcast is Francesca Levi bym By