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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. The election is only

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Speaker 1: about a week away, and while most major polls, including

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Speaker 1: the latest Bloomberg Morning Console poll, show Vice President Harris

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Speaker 1: and former President Trump are running neck and neck, Wall

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Speaker 1: Street has become increasingly convinced Trump is going to win,

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Speaker 1: and that conviction is manifesting itself in what's come to

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Speaker 1: be called the Trump.

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Speaker 2: Trade, the Trump trade, as some have been calling it,

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Speaker 2: the so called Trump trade.

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Speaker 1: We see those games from the Trump trades, who are

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Speaker 1: the winners and who are the loser? Investors are effectively

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Speaker 1: betting on a Trump win in the stock market, in

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Speaker 1: the bond market, in currencies, in crypto Bloomberg Opinions, John

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Speaker 1: Author says he's never seen anything like it. Wall Street

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Speaker 1: paying such close attention to a presidential election. He compared

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Speaker 1: to what's happening now to his first election he covered

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Speaker 1: in the US, that was Dole versus Clinton in nineteen

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Speaker 1: ninety seven.

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Speaker 2: I actually spoke to somebody in one of the large

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Speaker 2: firms two days later who said, did Clinton win? And

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Speaker 2: wasn't embarrassing? Yes he did? I mean that there was

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Speaker 2: You couldn't tell anything about that election from prices before

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Speaker 2: it happened or after. This is so different from.

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Speaker 1: That, it's hard to overstate John says how much things

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Speaker 1: have changed since then.

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Speaker 2: It's a very interesting, difficult, flammable situation. The level of

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Speaker 2: interest is unusual, and it's pretty extreme.

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Speaker 1: I'm David Gura, and this is the big take from

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg News today on the show, The Trump Trade and

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Speaker 1: what it tells us about how Wall Street sees this

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Speaker 1: election and the future of the economy. What is the

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Speaker 1: Trump trade? What exactly is Wall Street betting on? Okay,

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Speaker 1: Trump trade?

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Speaker 2: Very broadly, it's positive, bullish on stocks and negative bearish

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Speaker 2: on bonds. At present, it seems to be predicated on

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Speaker 2: the belief that even though a Trump presidency will be

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Speaker 2: negative for bonds, it won't be so negative. It won't

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Speaker 2: push up yields so much that it derails the stock market.

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Speaker 2: So that's basically the Trump trade, a belief that Trump

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Speaker 2: is going to win and that what he does will

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Speaker 2: be expansionary and that it's also going to boost growth

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Speaker 2: and help the stock market.

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Speaker 1: Could I ask you how people are playing this in

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Speaker 1: a few different outset classes as you mentioned Starks, Yes,

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Speaker 1: I would guess that there would be people who think oh,

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Speaker 1: this is going to be good for energy stocks, for instance,

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Speaker 1: or financials. Perhaps there'll be less regulation.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, companies that are deemed to be very benefited by

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Speaker 2: logistics by globalization have a problem. If you were interested

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Speaker 2: in FedEx, for example, that's plainly doesn't do well when

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Speaker 2: Trump's numbers are seen to improve. But yes, overall a

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Speaker 2: Trump win is seen to be good for classic cyclical

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Speaker 2: companies and it's not so great for classic defensive, staple

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Speaker 2: type companies.

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Speaker 1: How about in the bar market.

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Speaker 2: Bond market generally there are two animating features here. One

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Speaker 2: is it's a cliche, but it is true that bond

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Speaker 2: markets prefer gridlock. When you have gridlock when one party

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Speaker 2: in Congress actors a check on the presidency, generally speaking,

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Speaker 2: the deficity is less likely to get out of control,

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Speaker 2: Supply is less likely to be too heavy, and so

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Speaker 2: that keeps yields lower. The assumption, which I think is

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Speaker 2: probably correct, is that if Trump pulls off the presidency,

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Speaker 2: the chances of overwhelmingly strong that he wins the Senate

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Speaker 2: as well, and probably also holds onto the House. So

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Speaker 2: if you have unified government, that's bad for bonds.

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Speaker 1: John says fixed income investors like Most are not typically

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Speaker 1: motivated by ideology. They just want to make money, and

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Speaker 1: some are trying to bet on what a Trump presidency

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Speaker 1: might mean for inflation in both the short term and

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Speaker 1: the long term.

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Speaker 2: It will absolutely, undoubtedly be terrible for inflation in the

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Speaker 2: short term. The total burden on the amount of tariff

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Speaker 2: that will be paid. This is Barclay's research. I'm going

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Speaker 2: from not anything to hyper liberal. The twenty eighteen tariffs

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Speaker 2: added about two percentage points onto the cost of the importans.

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Speaker 2: The tarfity is talking about now, if he really goes

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Speaker 2: through with it, will add seventeen percentage points. So this

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Speaker 2: is protectionism on a scale not seen since the Great Depression.

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Speaker 2: And if you are a company, you will pass that

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Speaker 2: on or pass as much of it as you can on,

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Speaker 2: because otherwise you're shareholders won't be very pleased with you.

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Speaker 2: So it is directly inflationary in the short term. I

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Speaker 2: don't see any arguments against that. If Donald Trump persuades

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Speaker 2: more production to come to the States, if he persuades

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Speaker 2: companies currently operating in China to move their production facilities here,

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Speaker 2: in the long term, that will definitely be good. But

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Speaker 2: it takes far longer to build a factory than it

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Speaker 2: does to raise a price, and so there is still

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Speaker 2: no way that you avoid an inflationary spike if he

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Speaker 2: really goes through with this, and that will be bad

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Speaker 2: for the bond market.

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Speaker 1: Currency traders are also focusing on what former President Trump

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Speaker 1: has been saying about tariffs.

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Speaker 2: The currency traders take it as an absolute given that,

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Speaker 2: particularly if he goes through with those tariffs, that it

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Speaker 2: will be very bullish for the dollar. If the Trump

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Speaker 2: proposals are accurate, that he's really going to try to

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Speaker 2: deter near suring as well and really try to force

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Speaker 2: people to bring production back to the US, this will

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Speaker 2: mean a very strong dollar. You then get into the issue,

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Speaker 2: as is so often the case, you need to start

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Speaker 2: thinking in terms of a chess player and what the

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Speaker 2: next moves will be. If, as is likely, you get

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Speaker 2: a startling strengthening of the dollar, which makes it that

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Speaker 2: much harder for US exporters, presumably the next response either

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Speaker 2: will be okay, maybe these tariff's answers to a great idea,

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Speaker 2: or what can we do to push the dollar lower? Now?

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Speaker 2: One possibility which is not particularly positive for the markets

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Speaker 2: is that we then have a President Trump trying to

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Speaker 2: impinge upon the Fed's independence to get rates down when

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Speaker 2: they would otherwise rise and weaken the dollar, which for

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Speaker 2: any number of reasons would really terrify people. The other possibility,

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Speaker 2: given that Trump at least put his name to a

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Speaker 2: book of the deal, is that you could try to

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Speaker 2: have a grand deal two weeken the dullo.

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Speaker 1: That's happened before when Ronald Reagan was the president, But

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Speaker 1: the world has changed a lot since then, and John

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Speaker 1: says it would be hard for Trump to broke were

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Speaker 1: in agreement like that today. Coming up, how the Trump

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Speaker 1: trade has evolved, how it's playing out in prediction markets,

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Speaker 1: and what happens to the Trump trade when we find

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Speaker 1: out the outcome of the election. That's next. Another place

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Speaker 1: where you can see investors betting on a Trump win

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Speaker 1: is in the prediction markets. Today. They exist on sites

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Speaker 1: like Predicted and the Iowa Electronic Markets where people can

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Speaker 1: bet on the outcome of the election. But Bloomberg opinion

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Speaker 1: columnist John Authors says prediction markets have a long history.

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Speaker 2: Prediction markets have been around for an extremely long time.

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Speaker 2: They used to be thriving prediction markets in papal conclaves

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Speaker 2: in the fifteenth and sixteenth century.

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Speaker 1: Who's going to be the next pope?

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Speaker 2: Who is going to be the next pope? Cardinals would

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Speaker 2: tell their attendants who was leading, and they would rush

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Speaker 2: out and put bets on it with the traders out

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Speaker 2: there on the streets of Rome, and the betting markets

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Speaker 2: could be surprisingly accurate, and the money that was involved

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Speaker 2: was multi millions in today's today's terms, because obviously in

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Speaker 2: Renaissance Rome, who is going to be the next pope?

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Speaker 2: Really about it, and there were prediction markets writing on

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Speaker 2: the floor of the New York Stock Exchange for many

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Speaker 2: decades at the beginning of the twentieth century.

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Speaker 1: Today, another one of these prediction markets is called poly Market.

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Speaker 2: It's a big and liquid market. Officially, Americans can't trade there,

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Speaker 2: which ought to be a very big red flag sign.

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Speaker 2: There can be some extra dispassion attitude that can come

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Speaker 2: from not actually being American.

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Speaker 1: In recent days, a polymarket user who goes by Freddy

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Speaker 1: nine nine on the site has bet more than forty

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Speaker 1: five million dollars on a Republican victory. He's been identified

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Speaker 1: as a French national with extensive trading experience and the

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Speaker 1: financial services background, according to Polymarket, and John says one

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Speaker 1: thing that sets polymarket apart is that, unlike other prediction markets,

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Speaker 1: there is no limit on what you can bet.

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Speaker 2: It's a more liquid market. You can also express your

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Speaker 2: conviction more easily because you can bet more. Polymarkets like

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Speaker 2: any markets, if somebody enters with a really big bait,

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Speaker 2: it will move, which is what's happened after Eaton Musk

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Speaker 2: told everybody, look at polymarketing, isn't it wonderful?

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Speaker 1: John is talking about a post Musk made on x

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Speaker 1: in early October in which he praised prediction markets as

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Speaker 1: being quote more accurate than polls, as actual money is

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Speaker 1: on the line.

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Speaker 2: The last time I checked, when we were recording this,

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Speaker 2: I think polyma market put the odds on Trump winning

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Speaker 2: at sixty two percent. That's more than a one in

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Speaker 2: three chance that Kamala Harris is the next president. According

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Speaker 2: to polymarket. You wouldn't bet your life on this. And

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Speaker 2: that's to some extent the point of where a prediction

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Speaker 2: market has its advantage. You see the price and then

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Speaker 2: you think, well, I do think Donald Trump is probably

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Speaker 2: going to win. But do I really know that the

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Speaker 2: Democrats don't have a better ground game they did last time?

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Speaker 2: Do I really know that the polls aren't just missing

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Speaker 2: lots of very motivated, angry young women who weren't voting

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Speaker 2: last time because of the abortion issue. Actually, no, I

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Speaker 2: don't know that. So am I really confident enough to

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Speaker 2: bet much more than that. No, Actually, we'll leave it

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Speaker 2: at only about a sixty percent chance. That is the

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Speaker 2: benefit of prediction markets that they do capture that, But

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Speaker 2: it's not the same. There's there are certainly people who

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Speaker 2: think that polymarket at sixty two percent for Trump means

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Speaker 2: they think Donald Trump will get sixty two percent of

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Speaker 2: the votes, which be an absolutely monstrous, historic landslide. No,

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Speaker 2: it doesn't mean that that isn't going to happen.

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Speaker 1: I wonder what happens on election day. Say Trump wins,

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Speaker 1: what does that mean for people who have bet on

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Speaker 1: this Trump trade? If he loses, what does that mean.

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Speaker 2: In terms of the bond markets. I imagine you would

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Speaker 2: see a big relief rally into bonds and you would

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Speaker 2: probably see some degree of a sell off in stocks

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Speaker 2: if you have a Kamala Harris presidency. If and I

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Speaker 2: think it's very unlikely, but if if somehow or other

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Speaker 2: John Tester wins in Montana or Ted Cruz loses in Texas,

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Speaker 2: which would make a lot of people in this country

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Speaker 2: extremely happy. But I still don't quite imagine it happening.

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Speaker 2: If somehow or other you get a clean sweep for

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Speaker 2: Kamala Harris rather than a checked Kamala Harris, then I

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Speaker 2: imagine the sell off in bonds would continue and the

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Speaker 2: stock market would probably not like that very much either.

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Speaker 2: I think the best outcome, probably for most asset classes,

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Speaker 2: is Kamela checked by the Senate. Possibly Camela checked by

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Speaker 2: the Senate and the House. That would not have any

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Speaker 2: great negative response. I don't think.

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Speaker 1: How good is Wall streeted predicted the outcome of elections

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Speaker 1: if you look at.

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Speaker 2: History, Oh, the number of times.

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Speaker 1: As good as the cardinals.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I mean the over history twenty sixteen, the polls

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Speaker 2: were wrong. Answer with the prediction markets. It was one

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Speaker 2: where for whatever reason, people just didn't catch what was happening.

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Speaker 2: Over history, the various prediction markets that were available were

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Speaker 2: better than the gallop pole over a series of elections,

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Speaker 2: So prediction markets generally are pretty good over history. The

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Speaker 2: number of examples of really big sell offs or booms

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Speaker 2: in response to an election result is pretty minimal, which

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Speaker 2: means that Wall Street is generally not surprised by the results,

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Speaker 2: twenty sixteen being the big, glaring exception to that. I

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Speaker 2: think one of the things that's very difficult is again

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Speaker 2: that you need to know about the chess moves ahead.

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Speaker 2: Like from what we know now, you can say various

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Speaker 2: things about Harris versus a Trump foreign policy, domestic policy,

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Speaker 2: but broadly speaking, it's not that obvious how different things

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Speaker 2: would be.

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Speaker 1: This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gura.

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Speaker 1: This episode was produced by David Fox. It was edited

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