WEBVTT - Risky Business Live! How To Read People In Poker And Beyond 0:00:15.604 --> 0:00:29.844 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:30.084 --> 0:00:33.004 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova. 0:00:32.644 --> 0:00:33.604 And I'm Nate Silver. 0:00:34.484 --> 0:00:35.404 He is Nate Silver. 0:00:36.204 --> 0:00:40.324 You often like crack up during can but like, yeah, 0:00:40.364 --> 0:00:41.364 we're not going to do that to time. 0:00:41.484 --> 0:00:44.764 Today We're going to be straight faced. So today on 0:00:44.804 --> 0:00:47.204 the show, we have a really fun live show for you. 0:00:47.244 --> 0:00:50.684 Today we're going to be talking about reading people, the 0:00:50.844 --> 0:00:55.404 art of tell's deception, bluffing, and all all of that 0:00:55.444 --> 0:00:59.444 fun stuff. And after we kind of lay the groundwork, 0:00:59.524 --> 0:01:02.524 you guys better be paying really close attention because we'll 0:01:02.564 --> 0:01:05.404 be having people come up here to demonstrate how much 0:01:05.404 --> 0:01:08.324 you've learned about the art of greeting people. 0:01:08.564 --> 0:01:10.444 It's a five hundred dollar our entry fee. It's on 0:01:10.524 --> 0:01:11.484 the back of your ticket. 0:01:13.924 --> 0:01:17.644 So, Nate, you and I have just come back from 0:01:17.764 --> 0:01:21.404 Las Vegas, where we were both playing in the North 0:01:21.484 --> 0:01:28.564 American Poker Tour Famous Any Famous, Famous NAPT And you 0:01:28.604 --> 0:01:34.684 know poker and life are our games where there's bluffing. Nate, 0:01:34.764 --> 0:01:38.084 how are you at bluffing? How are you at bluffing 0:01:38.124 --> 0:01:40.164 and poker? And how are you at bluffing in life 0:01:40.204 --> 0:01:42.044 which might otherwise be known as lying? 0:01:43.044 --> 0:01:46.644 I think I'm a pretty good bluffer in poker, both 0:01:46.724 --> 0:01:49.324 kind of understanding like the game theory behind win to 0:01:49.364 --> 0:01:52.404 bluff and also like kind of have a few tricks 0:01:52.444 --> 0:01:56.044 to like pull things off right ironically in like real life, 0:01:56.164 --> 0:01:59.364 I kind of I kind of been very bad at 0:01:59.444 --> 0:02:01.924 lying in real life. I think my partner's here tonight, 0:02:01.964 --> 0:02:05.404 so you can confirm or deny that potentially. But no, 0:02:05.524 --> 0:02:08.604 I get very uncomfortable with you know, who is it 0:02:08.644 --> 0:02:12.164 like a lie takes too much work? Right? Kind lazy? No, 0:02:12.244 --> 0:02:14.044 It's like even things like like so when I was 0:02:14.124 --> 0:02:18.244 hiring people at five thirty eight, were with at Disney, right, like, 0:02:18.324 --> 0:02:21.204 what's the kind of the long term stability of this company? 0:02:21.404 --> 0:02:24.564 At the ABC News ESPN, I be like, I don't 0:02:24.564 --> 0:02:26.244 really know. You know, I'm under contract for a couple 0:02:26.244 --> 0:02:27.924 of years and we'll see what happens and so like. 0:02:28.084 --> 0:02:30.764 But I'm very comfortable, like in any type of negotiation 0:02:30.884 --> 0:02:34.724 or relationship, like I don't think it serves people certainly 0:02:34.724 --> 0:02:36.964 when purpose in the long run to kind of like 0:02:37.604 --> 0:02:41.524 form a relationship on false pretenses because it gets discovered 0:02:41.964 --> 0:02:45.924 later on. Right. No, So I'm an honest person mostly 0:02:45.924 --> 0:02:48.924 out of like laziness in real life, but in the 0:02:48.924 --> 0:02:53.964 context of poker. You know, poker would not exist without bluffing. 0:02:54.004 --> 0:02:56.484 That's what makes poker poker. I don't consider bluffing in 0:02:56.524 --> 0:03:00.164 poker to be lying. Also, when people, you know, people 0:03:00.204 --> 0:03:01.804 ask you, oh, what did you have? Right, so people 0:03:01.844 --> 0:03:04.164 are like, oh, if you actually ask a question, they 0:03:04.164 --> 0:03:08.244 won't like literally lie, I will, I will, I will 0:03:08.284 --> 0:03:10.124 lie my ass off, but like of what my ham was? 0:03:10.164 --> 0:03:11.884 I think it's like part of the game, but only 0:03:11.884 --> 0:03:14.444 a game. How about you are you Are you a bluffer? Maria? 0:03:15.004 --> 0:03:18.804 Well, you know, I when people ask me like, oh, 0:03:18.924 --> 0:03:21.524 you know, you wrote a book about con artists and 0:03:21.564 --> 0:03:24.324 now you're a poker player, so you're basically doing that. 0:03:24.724 --> 0:03:27.244 And I want to say no, absolutely not, because, as 0:03:27.244 --> 0:03:30.404 you say, poker is a game and bluffing is part 0:03:30.444 --> 0:03:33.084 of it, right, It's actually part of the rules. So 0:03:33.204 --> 0:03:37.324 everyone expects you to not tell the truth to bluff. 0:03:37.684 --> 0:03:40.084 That is one of the strategic elements of the game. 0:03:40.604 --> 0:03:43.724 Con Artists lie when they're supposed to be telling the truth. 0:03:43.804 --> 0:03:43.964 Right. 0:03:44.684 --> 0:03:46.844 Part of the rules of life is that we can 0:03:46.884 --> 0:03:49.364 trust each other, Right, you can trust me, I can 0:03:49.364 --> 0:03:52.284 trust you. We're not going to lie to each other 0:03:52.404 --> 0:03:55.604 when we see each other. And in fact, there's actually 0:03:55.644 --> 0:04:00.044 a lot of psychology that shows that humans have evolved 0:04:00.244 --> 0:04:06.284 for truthful relationships, not for deception, and that kind of 0:04:06.324 --> 0:04:09.364 trust is the default option. So in lots of study 0:04:09.564 --> 0:04:11.604 where you have people play all sorts of games. So 0:04:11.644 --> 0:04:13.484 we talk a lot about game theory on the show, 0:04:14.284 --> 0:04:17.724 and there are lots of games where you start off 0:04:17.764 --> 0:04:20.564 where you can either kind of cooperate or defect. Right, 0:04:20.604 --> 0:04:22.884 you can play by the rules, or you can cheat, 0:04:23.004 --> 0:04:25.564 you can lie. And it turns out that more often 0:04:25.604 --> 0:04:28.564 than not, like in the absence of any kind of 0:04:28.764 --> 0:04:32.324 incentive or pressure to the contrary, people start off cooperating 0:04:32.844 --> 0:04:36.604 and they start off in a very trusting stance, and 0:04:36.844 --> 0:04:40.004 that's actually, like, to me, that's really great, right, that's 0:04:40.004 --> 0:04:44.124 a very like hopeful thing for humanity, and societies with 0:04:44.204 --> 0:04:47.364 high levels of trust tend to do better. And you know, 0:04:47.444 --> 0:04:50.244 the reason that humans are actually pretty bad at spotting 0:04:50.284 --> 0:04:55.324 deception is that most people don't lie every day, right, 0:04:55.364 --> 0:04:58.884 And it's evolutionarily beneficial to just assume people are telling 0:04:58.884 --> 0:05:02.804 the truth. If you always thought everyone was lying like that, 0:05:02.804 --> 0:05:05.364 that ain't a good That ain't a good place to do. 0:05:05.964 --> 0:05:09.364 Like in like small communities. Then there's a reputational cast. 0:05:09.564 --> 0:05:12.124 I'm not that you know gto about it. It's like 0:05:12.404 --> 0:05:15.404 a reputational cost to lying or bad behavior, right, but 0:05:15.444 --> 0:05:17.764 it varies lot by society. I was with my partner 0:05:17.804 --> 0:05:20.444 and a friend in Korea for New Year's We were 0:05:20.484 --> 0:05:23.284 like shopping one day in some very busy area, and 0:05:23.324 --> 0:05:27.244 the shopkeeper at this very nice, busy shop went to 0:05:27.284 --> 0:05:28.964 get lunch, right, and he just kind of leaves, he 0:05:29.004 --> 0:05:30.124 leaves a door open. He's like, I'll be back in 0:05:30.124 --> 0:05:32.364 ten minutes. I'm grabbing some lunch, right, And like you 0:05:32.364 --> 0:05:35.124 could totally shoplift like whatever you want it because it's 0:05:35.124 --> 0:05:37.644 such a high trust society there that like there might 0:05:37.644 --> 0:05:41.164 be CCTV or whatever else. But like you take Marian, 0:05:41.284 --> 0:05:45.244 I'm not a I stole. I will say I. 0:05:45.164 --> 0:05:48.404 Stole Confessions of Risky Business. 0:05:48.644 --> 0:05:52.084 I stole taco Bell from the University of Chicago cafeteria 0:05:52.284 --> 0:05:54.604 one time, right. But the reason was because like the 0:05:54.684 --> 0:05:56.444 line to check out, It's like it was like they 0:05:56.444 --> 0:05:58.684 had like a pizza hut and a taco Bell and 0:05:59.204 --> 0:06:02.684 some other shitty era Mark concessions, right, and it was 0:06:02.724 --> 0:06:04.964 like a fifteen minute line to check out. I'm like, 0:06:05.004 --> 0:06:08.604 I'm you know, it's worth running the risk of getting 0:06:08.644 --> 0:06:11.404 caught dealing tacos if you have to wait fifteen minutes 0:06:11.444 --> 0:06:11.924 to check out. 0:06:11.964 --> 0:06:14.484 All right, University of Chicago. Next time they bought, they 0:06:15.124 --> 0:06:22.124 caught you. Yeah, so what happened? What were the repercussions hearing? 0:06:22.204 --> 0:06:24.124 And I don't know. It was the first offense, so 0:06:24.324 --> 0:06:26.764 they let me off, basically, but I'm. 0:06:26.564 --> 0:06:28.524 So glad they let you graduate. And you know, we 0:06:28.764 --> 0:06:33.324 wouldn't be sitting here otherwise. But but yeah, so so 0:06:33.404 --> 0:06:36.564 to go back to your kind of original question, I 0:06:36.644 --> 0:06:40.004 don't really you know, I don't think that I'm particularly 0:06:40.084 --> 0:06:42.164 good at lying in real life because I really don't. 0:06:42.484 --> 0:06:44.524 Now I tell white lies, and I think we all 0:06:44.564 --> 0:06:47.804 tell white lies, which is one reason another reason why 0:06:47.844 --> 0:06:50.764 we're so bad at spotting deception. Can you imagine what 0:06:50.804 --> 0:06:54.884 would happen if you were able to tell every single 0:06:54.964 --> 0:06:58.164 time someone said a white lie to you, Like, just 0:06:58.164 --> 0:07:01.164 just think about it, right, Like it's so good to 0:07:01.204 --> 0:07:01.524 see you. 0:07:01.924 --> 0:07:06.244 Yeah, yeah, well I love it. I love that you 0:07:06.244 --> 0:07:10.044 look great, but like, like, look. 0:07:10.044 --> 0:07:12.084 You know, if you have loved that baseball cafe. 0:07:11.964 --> 0:07:16.244 Yea, thank you, marry that. If you have a friend 0:07:16.244 --> 0:07:22.004 who cancels plans because they're sick. Maybe they're actually sick, right, Yeah, 0:07:22.044 --> 0:07:24.844 maybe they're having a really bad day, right, Maybe the 0:07:25.444 --> 0:07:28.324 fling of their life unexpectedly came into town. Right, maybe 0:07:28.404 --> 0:07:31.164 who knows, right, But like you don't need to be 0:07:31.204 --> 0:07:33.244 brutally honest, Like I'm not a big believer in like 0:07:34.124 --> 0:07:36.284 I think people are like, oh, radical transparency about everything. 0:07:36.284 --> 0:07:38.844 It's like you don't understand like the subtlety and like 0:07:38.884 --> 0:07:41.084 the density of like human communication. Actually, one thing I 0:07:41.084 --> 0:07:44.444 think you learned from AI models arts language models is 0:07:44.524 --> 0:07:48.804 like how laden with density, like word choices are and 0:07:48.884 --> 0:07:52.364 terns of phrase are and the particular analogy or allegory 0:07:52.644 --> 0:07:55.764 that you might use, right, Because you're often trying to 0:07:55.804 --> 0:07:59.204 communicate with like multiple people at once. Right, You're trying 0:07:59.244 --> 0:08:01.404 to say one you're dog whistling to some group of people, 0:08:01.444 --> 0:08:04.124 and you're saying you coming different things to different people. 0:08:04.524 --> 0:08:07.204 It's often kind of less subtle than people think if 0:08:07.244 --> 0:08:10.604 you consider like political communication example, But like language is 0:08:10.604 --> 0:08:14.284 a very rich medium and a very like strategic medium. 0:08:14.364 --> 0:08:18.724 Yeah, absolutely, And when you're communicating, And this is something 0:08:18.764 --> 0:08:22.884 that you really learn in poker, is that language is 0:08:23.404 --> 0:08:26.724 nonverbal too, right, when you kind of go from the 0:08:26.764 --> 0:08:30.084 real life arena to kind of the arena something like games. 0:08:30.524 --> 0:08:34.364 I used to be absolutely horrible at bluffing as well, 0:08:34.644 --> 0:08:38.604 because I'm so uncomfortable lying right, and I felt really 0:08:38.644 --> 0:08:42.804 and I felt really anxious and nervous when when I bluffed, 0:08:42.964 --> 0:08:45.844 and if I got caught bluffing, I was like, oh, no, right, 0:08:46.244 --> 0:08:49.404 I got cop bluffing. Where of course, the kind of 0:08:49.564 --> 0:08:52.244 the common wisdom is that if you're never caught bluffing, 0:08:52.244 --> 0:08:54.684 you're not bluffing enough. Right. It's part of the game. 0:08:54.764 --> 0:08:57.364 You're you're supposed to be cop bluffing. Sometimes you're supposed 0:08:57.404 --> 0:09:00.524 to bluff a lot. And what ended up actually helping 0:09:00.604 --> 0:09:03.284 me and getting me kind of over the hump to 0:09:03.404 --> 0:09:06.764 where I could start bluffing more successfully is when I 0:09:06.844 --> 0:09:10.604 stopped thinking of it as deception and started thinking of 0:09:10.644 --> 0:09:14.364 it as, oh, like, I understand the game better now, 0:09:14.404 --> 0:09:17.724 and this is actually the correct move for me to make, right, 0:09:17.764 --> 0:09:20.244 It is one of my strategic choices, and in this 0:09:20.324 --> 0:09:24.164 particular moment, this is the proper strategy. And so it 0:09:24.564 --> 0:09:26.764 you know, you were talking before about how you tell 0:09:26.764 --> 0:09:29.844 the truth in real life, because it's just you're lazy, Well, 0:09:30.084 --> 0:09:34.044 deception does create cognitive load, So it creates a lot 0:09:34.084 --> 0:09:38.924 of kind of tension and extra overhead kind of inside 0:09:38.964 --> 0:09:43.084 your brain. And because you have to kind of try 0:09:43.084 --> 0:09:45.764 to think, does my story make sense? Right? Am I 0:09:45.844 --> 0:09:49.764 being consistent? Is it logical? And you have to try 0:09:49.764 --> 0:09:52.084 to think, oh, am I giving off anything? Right? Can 0:09:52.124 --> 0:09:55.404 people tell? Like there's there's just a lot that starts happening. 0:09:55.924 --> 0:09:58.684 So if you stop thinking of it as you know, 0:09:58.764 --> 0:10:01.724 as a lie, you can actually reduce the cognitive load 0:10:01.724 --> 0:10:03.404 and just say, Okay, this is how I should be 0:10:03.404 --> 0:10:04.004 playing right. 0:10:03.924 --> 0:10:07.484 Now, I'm like sometimes more comfortable bluffing than I am 0:10:07.524 --> 0:10:10.644 with a strong man, right, which is a little Karen intuitive. 0:10:10.684 --> 0:10:12.124 It might give you some reverse to but like the 0:10:12.164 --> 0:10:14.324 way I look at it, Maria, is when I bet, 0:10:14.964 --> 0:10:17.564 I'm saying I have a range of hands, right, I'm saying, Look, 0:10:17.764 --> 0:10:19.764 I'm betting I might have some good hands. I might 0:10:19.804 --> 0:10:21.004 have some bad hands. I don't want you to know 0:10:21.044 --> 0:10:23.044 either way, right, I want to keep you guessing either way. 0:10:23.364 --> 0:10:25.644 That's an honest statement of like my range of hands. 0:10:25.724 --> 0:10:27.724 So the reason I have I have my phone up 0:10:27.724 --> 0:10:30.644 here for several reasons, but one of them is because 0:10:31.284 --> 0:10:33.284 so we just got back from the NAPT and I 0:10:33.284 --> 0:10:37.084 love that Natel said he feels more comfortable bluffing than 0:10:37.124 --> 0:10:39.364 he does telling the truth. Because I got a message. 0:10:39.404 --> 0:10:42.564 Oh yeah. So I have a substack called the Leap, 0:10:43.644 --> 0:10:46.924 and one of my paid subscribers was at NAPT playing 0:10:47.204 --> 0:10:51.044 and he played with Nate, and so I come home 0:10:51.244 --> 0:10:53.644 to this message from him. You know, hi, Maria, it 0:10:53.684 --> 0:10:57.244 was a nice meeting. Again. I had a great time 0:10:57.324 --> 0:11:01.884 this trip despite not cashing. Please tell Nate that he 0:11:02.044 --> 0:11:05.084 still bluffs too much. Oh no, So then I go, 0:11:05.244 --> 0:11:07.644 I go, ha ha ha. I'll make sure to tell him. 0:11:08.044 --> 0:11:13.404 And then he continues, and he says, I only saw 0:11:13.564 --> 0:11:16.964 one big bluff that was caught by a pair on 0:11:17.004 --> 0:11:20.564 a missed flush draw board. But from his past interviews 0:11:20.604 --> 0:11:24.164 I learned about his high bluff frequency, which someone else 0:11:24.204 --> 0:11:26.804 may have used at the table. I'm sure Nate's a 0:11:26.804 --> 0:11:29.044 better player than man. Doesn't need my advice, but I'm 0:11:29.084 --> 0:11:32.244 giving it to you anyway. So do you remember this hand. 0:11:32.324 --> 0:11:35.924 Apparently some you know, someone noticed that you were bluffing 0:11:35.964 --> 0:11:38.964 too much, Nate. How did you do in that tournament? 0:11:39.084 --> 0:11:41.604 Nate, Maria, So I write, So we're doing a little 0:11:41.604 --> 0:11:45.084 thing with with Sam Greenwood runs a blog called pen 0:11:45.164 --> 0:11:47.444 of the Day. So I wrote down for this whole 0:11:47.444 --> 0:11:50.844 week of poker all my questionably played in hands. There 0:11:50.844 --> 0:11:53.444 were quite a few, if we're being honest, right, but 0:11:53.524 --> 0:11:55.884 like probably the three hands that I believe were the 0:11:55.884 --> 0:11:59.804 worst plays or hands where I didn't bluff where I 0:11:59.804 --> 0:12:03.924 should have. Right, it's like counterintuitive how often you actually 0:12:03.924 --> 0:12:06.804 are supposed to bluff? Yeah, in poker, because it does 0:12:06.844 --> 0:12:11.124 feel like really bad when you bluffing at caught. It 0:12:11.164 --> 0:12:12.684 doesn't feel that bad when you have you have a 0:12:12.684 --> 0:12:15.164 big value hand, When you have like a full house 0:12:15.284 --> 0:12:18.324 or a flush or a straight and you bet and 0:12:18.324 --> 0:12:20.604 you don't get called, right, then it's like, oh, okay, 0:12:20.604 --> 0:12:22.444 well you know you didn't have anything you didn't pay off. 0:12:22.764 --> 0:12:24.524 But if you don't bluff enough then you won't get 0:12:24.524 --> 0:12:26.404 paid off as much. And so no, I think I 0:12:26.404 --> 0:12:29.804 probably still I think I'm like, I bluff more than 0:12:29.804 --> 0:12:34.084 the stereotyped version of Nate you have might assume, But 0:12:34.084 --> 0:12:38.964 I probably still under bluff relative to game theory or 0:12:39.004 --> 0:12:41.364 how often in practice it could probably could probably get 0:12:41.364 --> 0:12:41.844 away with it. 0:12:42.244 --> 0:12:45.284 Did you have any bluffs that you're very proud of? 0:12:45.284 --> 0:12:48.164 Because I actually so this was a very good series 0:12:48.204 --> 0:12:50.844 for me, and I had one bluff in particular that 0:12:50.924 --> 0:12:54.084 I'm very proud of that actually enabled me to do 0:12:54.404 --> 0:12:56.604 really well in the tournament that I did really well in. 0:12:56.764 --> 0:12:58.604 So some bluffs I like are where you make like 0:12:58.684 --> 0:13:02.524 so empirically certain lines are underutilized. Right, So one bluff 0:13:02.564 --> 0:13:04.604 I like is like often when people make like a 0:13:04.724 --> 0:13:09.044 small bet, then the representing like a you know, oactch 0:13:09.084 --> 0:13:11.044 have a me yocre ham, it's better than your hand, right, 0:13:11.244 --> 0:13:14.404 I have top pair with a bad kicker or a 0:13:14.444 --> 0:13:16.964 bad flesh or second pair, and you probably don't have 0:13:17.004 --> 0:13:18.564 top pair given the way the hand was played out, 0:13:18.604 --> 0:13:19.244 and then make like. 0:13:19.644 --> 0:13:22.044 Small people who don't play poker. These are all like 0:13:22.164 --> 0:13:23.284 second best hands. 0:13:23.604 --> 0:13:25.484 So the second where like I think my hand is 0:13:25.484 --> 0:13:29.084 just like slightly better than you are. I love making small, 0:13:29.804 --> 0:13:33.484 yep bluffs that are very cheap with hands I can 0:13:33.564 --> 0:13:36.284 represent like second best hands trying to get a little value, 0:13:36.764 --> 0:13:38.204 and they're very cheap, you know what I mean. I 0:13:38.204 --> 0:13:41.364 made a bluff in a limit game, which is hard 0:13:41.404 --> 0:13:44.564 to do. I was playing like some seven card stood 0:13:44.604 --> 0:13:47.084 eight or better, right, and like I had a great draw. 0:13:47.724 --> 0:13:49.964 I could get a low or high or whatever. 0:13:50.044 --> 0:13:53.084 And I and I missed everything right, and the guy 0:13:53.164 --> 0:13:55.604 bet and I'm I raise just like just raising, like 0:13:55.644 --> 0:13:57.564 he's getting like fifteen to one, right, he has to 0:13:57.644 --> 0:14:00.564 be right one out of fifteen times for his bluff 0:14:00.564 --> 0:14:01.684 to right, and he folds the whole pot. 0:14:01.764 --> 0:14:01.844 Right. 0:14:01.884 --> 0:14:04.604 I scooped the pot with a bluff, So that felt good, Maria. 0:14:04.484 --> 0:14:07.124 Yeah, those are those are actually very smart bluffs when 0:14:07.204 --> 0:14:09.484 you when you just bluff a little bit because it 0:14:09.484 --> 0:14:12.204 seems like you want people to call you right. My 0:14:12.284 --> 0:14:16.444 bluff that ended up working, though, was the very opposite. 0:14:16.564 --> 0:14:19.964 I was out of position, so I was in the 0:14:20.004 --> 0:14:22.684 big blind. So for people who don't play poker, being 0:14:22.724 --> 0:14:25.164 out of position is not good, right, because you always 0:14:25.164 --> 0:14:28.724 act first and the person you're playing with act second 0:14:29.164 --> 0:14:32.644 and in everything. But also like when you're talking about 0:14:32.844 --> 0:14:35.924 tells and reading people, you want more information, right, The 0:14:35.924 --> 0:14:39.404 more information the better, and so getting to go second 0:14:39.524 --> 0:14:43.124 is a huge advantage. And so I was out of 0:14:43.164 --> 0:14:46.604 position against a player who's a very good player this 0:14:46.644 --> 0:14:52.124 whole hand, and I had jack ten, you know, really 0:14:52.204 --> 0:14:54.924 nice hand was suited. You know, I had a straight 0:14:55.004 --> 0:15:01.524 draw and I just then ended up having a flush draw. Anyway, 0:15:01.564 --> 0:15:04.884 I bricked everything but there were two different flush draws 0:15:04.884 --> 0:15:08.564 on the board, and he bet, he raised, you know, 0:15:08.604 --> 0:15:11.564 pre flop, he bet flop, he bet turned and then 0:15:11.684 --> 0:15:14.724 the river comes, it completes the wrong flush, not mine, 0:15:15.764 --> 0:15:19.564 and I have nothing and the pot is huge, and 0:15:19.684 --> 0:15:23.644 I did something very unorthodox, and I just shoved before 0:15:23.684 --> 0:15:25.404 he had a chance to act, so I took the 0:15:25.444 --> 0:15:28.764 momentum from him, and he ended up folding. It was 0:15:28.884 --> 0:15:31.004 very funny because this is a spot that people don't 0:15:31.044 --> 0:15:35.164 bluff very often, right when the board changes so much, 0:15:35.204 --> 0:15:38.684 because it's kind of suicidal to run that bluff. But 0:15:38.724 --> 0:15:42.644 my suicidal bluff worked, and it felt really good because 0:15:42.684 --> 0:15:44.644 I think that past me would not have been able 0:15:44.684 --> 0:15:47.404 to do something like that, because once again, bluffing and 0:15:47.484 --> 0:15:51.684 lying are two very different things. And this is also 0:15:51.764 --> 0:15:56.084 where nonverbal tells come into play a little bit, because, 0:15:56.924 --> 0:16:00.644 you know, something about his behavior made me think that 0:16:00.804 --> 0:16:04.364 he had been trying to bully me out of the 0:16:04.444 --> 0:16:07.964 hand for a long time, and so I was using 0:16:08.004 --> 0:16:11.604 that as well to kind of inform my kind of 0:16:11.884 --> 0:16:15.004 my thinking that maybe his hand was not so strong 0:16:15.084 --> 0:16:16.284 that he'd feel compelled to call. 0:16:16.564 --> 0:16:19.484 Yeah, I'm a big believer in nonverbal tells and kind 0:16:19.524 --> 0:16:23.164 of it often. I mean there are sometimes specific things 0:16:23.604 --> 0:16:25.204 I'm not sure when you have way too many secrets, 0:16:25.204 --> 0:16:27.684 but it's more often kind of like an overall vibe. 0:16:27.764 --> 0:16:31.884 I've Maria, I've kind of become a you can play 0:16:31.924 --> 0:16:33.124 with me, like at the same table in a while, 0:16:33.164 --> 0:16:34.644 become like a little bit more of a speech play 0:16:34.724 --> 0:16:38.164 guy where I'll like, I'll like talk to people, especially Europeans. 0:16:38.204 --> 0:16:40.804 The Europeans play poker are like they're very quiet, right, 0:16:40.884 --> 0:16:43.604 I'm like, where are you from? You know which part 0:16:43.604 --> 0:16:45.324 of Belli? They're usually from Belgium? Like which part of 0:16:45.364 --> 0:16:47.564 Belgium are you from? Just kind of see if people 0:16:47.604 --> 0:16:51.364 are comfortable or not, and like, you know, it's kind 0:16:51.404 --> 0:16:53.004 of if you're if you're considering, Like let's say it's 0:16:53.004 --> 0:16:56.084 a spot where like a player bets big on the river, 0:16:56.364 --> 0:16:58.444 he might be bluffing. I'm not planning on rebraising either 0:16:58.444 --> 0:17:01.164 because I'm all in any way, or or I'm not 0:17:01.164 --> 0:17:03.444 going to raise right, and like you kind of get 0:17:03.444 --> 0:17:06.964 free info just by talking to people. But it's an 0:17:06.964 --> 0:17:09.284 overall kind of aura or vibe and like it's not 0:17:09.444 --> 0:17:13.444 something mysterious, just like we are. We have like human interactions, right, 0:17:13.444 --> 0:17:17.084 Like in real life, you hopefully have intuition for when 0:17:17.084 --> 0:17:21.004 you're being deceived. For example, one is like when someone's 0:17:21.044 --> 0:17:23.444 not telling the full story, and like, yeah, and poker, 0:17:23.644 --> 0:17:26.924 you just kind of developed like this implicit database of 0:17:27.044 --> 0:17:31.524 like semantics and signals, and you'd be like foolish, like 0:17:31.564 --> 0:17:33.364 not to account for that. I don't think. 0:17:33.804 --> 0:17:36.284 Yeah, I always like to talk to people, and I 0:17:36.324 --> 0:17:40.124 think the reason that it works. I don't do it 0:17:40.164 --> 0:17:44.004 for tells, but I do it, you know, because it 0:17:44.044 --> 0:17:47.364 actually does help me later on. And this is the 0:17:47.444 --> 0:17:50.924 journalist in me, right, Like I'm genuinely curious to find 0:17:50.964 --> 0:17:54.004 out why people are there, what are they doing, what 0:17:54.044 --> 0:17:57.164 are their motivations? You know, why are you playing this event? 0:17:57.284 --> 0:17:59.924 Did you come? You know? Are you a professional? Are 0:17:59.924 --> 0:18:03.084 you here because your wife gave you a present? Because 0:18:03.124 --> 0:18:05.684 you've wanted to play this event forever? All of this 0:18:05.764 --> 0:18:09.084 is information, right, All of this tells you something about 0:18:09.164 --> 0:18:12.684 people and something that poker has really made me good at, 0:18:12.724 --> 0:18:14.604 which you know, it's funny because you think of it 0:18:14.604 --> 0:18:17.644 as kind of this cutthroat game, but it's actually made 0:18:17.644 --> 0:18:20.364 me a much better listener, right, It's made me someone 0:18:20.404 --> 0:18:24.444 who's much more attuned to the signals that other people 0:18:24.484 --> 0:18:28.404 give out because I mean at the poker table, it 0:18:28.444 --> 0:18:32.044 can help me take your money, but it also like 0:18:32.644 --> 0:18:36.244 it's rewarded. Right, When you truly listen to other people, 0:18:36.964 --> 0:18:43.604 you are able to understand where they're coming from, take 0:18:43.764 --> 0:18:47.484 their perspective, which humans are really bad at doing. Right. Normally, 0:18:47.564 --> 0:18:50.044 when we think we're taking someone else's perspective, what we're 0:18:50.044 --> 0:18:52.524 doing is taking our perspective and lumping it onto the 0:18:52.564 --> 0:18:56.164 other person. And we're like, oh, I know exactly what 0:18:56.204 --> 0:18:57.844 you're thinking. It's what I would be thinking if I 0:18:57.884 --> 0:19:00.964 were in your shoes, And that's usually completely wrong. Right, 0:19:01.044 --> 0:19:04.684 we're so ego centric and to be able to kind 0:19:04.724 --> 0:19:08.524 of actually take a step back and figure out, wait, no, 0:19:09.124 --> 0:19:11.604 this is what they would be thinking because they've told 0:19:11.644 --> 0:19:16.124 me more about themselves. It helps you strategically, but then 0:19:16.164 --> 0:19:18.764 it helps you in real life just be a better person. 0:19:18.804 --> 0:19:18.844 No. 0:19:18.924 --> 0:19:21.084 One of the best pieces of poker advice I've listened 0:19:21.084 --> 0:19:24.044 to you recently. I think he's from Hungry Horse Poker. 0:19:24.564 --> 0:19:26.804 I think his name is Mark Goon, a good YouTuber. Right, 0:19:27.484 --> 0:19:30.284 he's like, remember thinking about the poker world from the 0:19:30.364 --> 0:19:34.404 opponent's point of view, right, like putting yourself in the 0:19:34.404 --> 0:19:37.644 other player's shoes and like what's bothering them? Yeah, especially 0:19:37.804 --> 0:19:41.164 for for amateur players, right, one thing you see all 0:19:41.164 --> 0:19:43.124 the time and like big events like the main event 0:19:43.204 --> 0:19:44.764 or other big events. The World Sairs of Poker is 0:19:44.804 --> 0:19:47.324 like some guy comes in. He won his kind of 0:19:47.364 --> 0:19:50.404 like local home game tournament. His friends bought him in 0:19:50.444 --> 0:19:52.484 for tank the World Series of Poker. It's some prize 0:19:52.484 --> 0:19:54.484 from some series they have, right, And you can like 0:19:54.564 --> 0:19:57.324 kind of pinpoint the moment where something like I want 0:19:57.364 --> 0:19:59.324 to play tight, gonna play solid, Right, you can like 0:19:59.364 --> 0:20:02.164 pinpoint the moment when they kind of were like, shit, 0:20:02.244 --> 0:20:04.604 this isn't working, right, they panic a little bit. Some 0:20:04.644 --> 0:20:08.004 of these are more obvious. So I played a cash 0:20:08.044 --> 0:20:10.524 game at the BLA show last night. I'm my way 0:20:10.564 --> 0:20:11.084 out of town. 0:20:11.644 --> 0:20:13.204 This is true dgen behavior. 0:20:13.244 --> 0:20:18.724 Guys would write football. There was a guy and now 0:20:18.724 --> 0:20:21.124 we get into gendered stereotypes. Right, there was a guy 0:20:21.164 --> 0:20:25.884 who had his like his girlfriend sitting directly behind him 0:20:26.444 --> 0:20:29.724 making faces about every hand. I'm like, this guy probably 0:20:29.804 --> 0:20:33.604 is not bluffing old punch right when like when it 0:20:33.684 --> 0:20:35.444 was like his girlfriend's they are like approving it is 0:20:35.484 --> 0:20:38.084 from them. Is like play in every hair like i'd be. 0:20:38.284 --> 0:20:40.884 You know, he's not bluffing like ever, right, don't think so, Nate. 0:20:40.884 --> 0:20:46.164 The funny thing is it turns out that we humans 0:20:46.364 --> 0:20:50.604 are remarkably good at controlling our faces. Right, We are 0:20:50.804 --> 0:20:54.004 really good at poker faces. If you want to look 0:20:54.044 --> 0:20:57.484 at nonverbal behavior, if you want to look at tells, 0:20:57.564 --> 0:21:00.804 if you want to figure out is this person bluffing 0:21:00.804 --> 0:21:03.924 in the case of poker or lying deceiving me in 0:21:04.004 --> 0:21:07.884 the case of day to day interactions, looking at their 0:21:07.924 --> 0:21:09.364 face is the wrong place to look. 0:21:09.404 --> 0:21:09.604 Look. 0:21:09.924 --> 0:21:13.724 There are lots of studies that show that basically our 0:21:13.764 --> 0:21:17.724 faces give almost nothing away because we're so incredibly used 0:21:17.764 --> 0:21:20.364 to controlling them. Right, that's the one thing you're always 0:21:20.444 --> 0:21:24.124 thinking about, Like poker face, right am, I giving anything away? 0:21:24.564 --> 0:21:27.684 That's something that most people are actually really, really good at. 0:21:27.964 --> 0:21:30.044 But what you're not used to controlling is the rest 0:21:30.084 --> 0:21:33.124 of your body. Right. You don't realize that you're leaking 0:21:33.164 --> 0:21:37.644 information through your posture, through your hands, through your feet, 0:21:37.964 --> 0:21:41.044 through all of these other things. That's where people should 0:21:41.044 --> 0:21:41.484 be staring. 0:21:41.564 --> 0:21:43.244 No, it's it's the hands. 0:21:43.484 --> 0:21:45.724 It's the hands. Yes, anyone who's read the biggest bluff, 0:21:45.724 --> 0:21:47.404 I have a whole chapter about the hands. 0:21:47.764 --> 0:21:49.404 It's the pulse. Often. I mean, I find a guy 0:21:49.524 --> 0:21:51.484 in the main event that the World series where like 0:21:51.484 --> 0:21:53.764 like literally had like a real time heart rate monitor 0:21:54.204 --> 0:21:56.124 hook up to him, where like he just had this 0:21:56.164 --> 0:21:58.524 thing where like his heart was beating his neck. If 0:21:58.524 --> 0:22:00.444 you have that happen, it can happen to people temporarily 0:22:00.484 --> 0:22:03.284 or permanently. We're like we're a skyrif wear like a 0:22:03.324 --> 0:22:07.204 sweatshirt or something. Right, But like it was very correlated, 0:22:07.564 --> 0:22:09.924 Like I knew because he made it. We just you know, look, 0:22:10.044 --> 0:22:12.644 you pick up a whole vocabulary just based on having 0:22:12.644 --> 0:22:14.644 a lot of reps doing these things. Right, he was 0:22:14.684 --> 0:22:18.124 already making mannerisms that I associate with having like a 0:22:18.244 --> 0:22:20.764 very strong hand. In this case, he had aces and 0:22:20.844 --> 0:22:23.324 you saw his heartbeat and saw, Okay, here's a guy 0:22:23.644 --> 0:22:27.244 where his heartbeat beats faster when he has his strong hand, right, 0:22:27.604 --> 0:22:29.804 which is not true for everybody. Some people are the opposite. 0:22:30.204 --> 0:22:31.684 And so like now, like I basically know is like 0:22:31.724 --> 0:22:34.164 hand strength for the rest of the day, Like that's 0:22:34.204 --> 0:22:37.444 a huge advantage that explicit is rare, but like, yeah, 0:22:37.524 --> 0:22:42.084 it's often kind of like also watching people before you 0:22:42.084 --> 0:22:44.644 get into big moments in the hand, right, because once 0:22:44.644 --> 0:22:47.524 they're locked in, then they're self conscious. Like what you're 0:22:47.524 --> 0:22:50.004 trying to figure out too, is like, okay, somebody makes 0:22:50.044 --> 0:22:54.484 an action. Was that conscious? Was it unconscious? If it 0:22:54.564 --> 0:22:57.244 was unconscious to them, become aware. Oh I took a 0:22:57.284 --> 0:23:00.084 little bit a while to make that call. That might 0:23:00.164 --> 0:23:03.044 look weak or it might look strong, depending on context. 0:23:03.124 --> 0:23:05.364 It's all. It's like regular language, right, it's all. It's 0:23:05.364 --> 0:23:07.644 all very contextual. They said that might be strong and 0:23:07.724 --> 0:23:09.804 one context might be weak. In other context. You're trying 0:23:09.804 --> 0:23:11.444 to like paint a semantic portrait. 0:23:17.324 --> 0:23:29.044 We'll be back right after this. So there's kind of 0:23:29.244 --> 0:23:33.164 three bigger picture psych things here that I want to 0:23:33.244 --> 0:23:36.044 kind of draw out. So first, the reason that Nate 0:23:36.124 --> 0:23:38.604 was able to use some of this information is because 0:23:38.644 --> 0:23:42.484 he had immediate feedback, which we normally don't have in life. Right, 0:23:42.924 --> 0:23:45.804 He saw that pulse and then he saw that there 0:23:45.884 --> 0:23:48.844 was a strong hand associated with it, and so he 0:23:49.004 --> 0:23:52.804 had that. You know, this means that now imagine that 0:23:53.084 --> 0:23:55.284 you didn't get to see the cards, you would have 0:23:55.524 --> 0:23:57.604 no way of knowing if this was a signal of 0:23:57.644 --> 0:24:02.844 strength or weakness, and the exact same thing might actually 0:24:02.884 --> 0:24:07.844 signal very different outcomes, very different. You know, I'm being 0:24:07.924 --> 0:24:10.844 lied to or this person and you know is telling 0:24:10.884 --> 0:24:15.884 the truth, depending which kind of goes to point number two, 0:24:16.284 --> 0:24:19.484 which is why it's so incredibly difficult to spot deception 0:24:19.644 --> 0:24:22.564 in real life. Why, by the way, LIGHTE detector tests 0:24:22.564 --> 0:24:27.284 are absolute bullshit, all of them. There's no good CIA FBI, 0:24:27.404 --> 0:24:30.524 Like nobody has a good and actually accurate LE detector 0:24:30.604 --> 0:24:34.684 because well, first of all, you can fake them. But secondly, 0:24:35.084 --> 0:24:38.964 like you can tell if someone's stressed or nervous, right, 0:24:39.204 --> 0:24:42.004 or if there's you know, something going on, if there's 0:24:42.044 --> 0:24:47.684 cognitive load, but you have no access to why, right, 0:24:48.004 --> 0:24:51.684 What is the why behind that? Am I stressed because 0:24:51.724 --> 0:24:55.164 I'm lying? Or am I stressed because I'm telling the 0:24:55.244 --> 0:24:59.284 truth and I'm afraid that you're not going to believe me? Right? 0:24:59.804 --> 0:25:03.564 Or am I stressed because like I haven't gotten enough 0:25:03.644 --> 0:25:05.084 sleep and this is a really. 0:25:04.884 --> 0:25:10.044 Stressful situation if I am angry? Yeah? Or what were you? Exactly? Yeah? 0:25:10.364 --> 0:25:10.844 Exactly? 0:25:10.964 --> 0:25:13.764 Like I was like, so you're something, you bet you'll 0:25:13.764 --> 0:25:15.484 put out whatever I'm betting seventy bucks, I put up 0:25:15.764 --> 0:25:17.604 seven ten dollars chips or a fifty dollars chip, But 0:25:17.644 --> 0:25:20.724 like if I'm like hungry and I have eaten, then 0:25:20.764 --> 0:25:24.164 you can get like shaky hands, you like absolutely seventy bucks, 0:25:24.204 --> 0:25:26.644 right y, because you don't want to like although honestly, 0:25:27.324 --> 0:25:29.764 you know you can have reverse tels. Maybe you're a 0:25:29.804 --> 0:25:32.124 little hungry and you know, and you like so you 0:25:32.244 --> 0:25:34.044 kind of have some tremble. I mean they're like, I 0:25:34.084 --> 0:25:36.764 do I do things. I don't have a little stitching 0:25:36.884 --> 0:25:38.484 as a person. I'll do I do a little things 0:25:38.524 --> 0:25:40.204 to mix it up. You know, I'm trying to be 0:25:40.284 --> 0:25:42.924 unreadable and like because I'm like not like inherently a 0:25:43.004 --> 0:25:45.804 very like still person, then maybe I tried to vary 0:25:45.804 --> 0:25:46.364 things a little bit. 0:25:46.484 --> 0:25:48.924 Yeah, so that's so yeah. Number two like you really 0:25:48.924 --> 0:25:52.324 don't know. Number three is something that you alluded to, 0:25:52.444 --> 0:25:54.884 which is I think really really important when you're trying 0:25:54.924 --> 0:25:57.924 to figure out, you know, how do I read this person, 0:25:58.604 --> 0:26:01.084 whether it's at the poker table or not. And that's 0:26:01.884 --> 0:26:04.604 you need a baseline of behavior to be able to 0:26:04.644 --> 0:26:07.844 compare it to right. You need to know what this 0:26:07.924 --> 0:26:13.724 person normally behaves like, which requires a ton of data 0:26:13.844 --> 0:26:16.644 that frankly, you often don't have, right, which is why 0:26:16.724 --> 0:26:19.004 I caution people a lot of the time not to 0:26:19.644 --> 0:26:22.764 put too much stock in tells, whether it's at the 0:26:22.804 --> 0:26:25.764 poker table or in a conversation where like, oh, I 0:26:25.764 --> 0:26:28.764 think that guy's lying to me, right, do you know, like, 0:26:29.364 --> 0:26:32.724 do you have a good baseline? Have you observed this 0:26:32.804 --> 0:26:38.084 person in enough situations, in enough interactions where you know 0:26:38.124 --> 0:26:41.364 what normal looks like so that you can tell what 0:26:41.484 --> 0:26:46.364 deviation from normal looks like, and then do you have 0:26:46.604 --> 0:26:49.484 feedback to know what that deviation means. So there's so 0:26:49.644 --> 0:26:53.964 many steps that need to actually happen for you to 0:26:54.004 --> 0:26:56.404 be able to make an actual read, which is why 0:26:56.444 --> 0:27:00.044 when you see these meta analyzes and psychology of nonverbal 0:27:00.044 --> 0:27:03.284 behavior usually you find that, you know, it's kind of 0:27:03.324 --> 0:27:06.844 fifty to fifty right, that it's almost no better than chance. 0:27:07.164 --> 0:27:10.004 And even if people can get better than chance, they 0:27:10.004 --> 0:27:13.484 improve from like fifty percent to fifty four percent, right, 0:27:13.604 --> 0:27:18.004 which sure four percents a lot, but it's still like 0:27:18.444 --> 0:27:21.084 still incredibly noisy if you're trying. 0:27:20.844 --> 0:27:23.124 To know and also with a strategy, if you ignore 0:27:23.124 --> 0:27:25.724 the bluffs or the tells for a second, right in 0:27:25.764 --> 0:27:28.164 strategy in poker, I mean we all have some sense 0:27:28.204 --> 0:27:32.204 for like empirically how the population plays. You're talking about 0:27:32.244 --> 0:27:35.964 this before backstage, like, oh, this spot is underbluffed by 0:27:36.004 --> 0:27:40.044 the player population overall. Therefore, if I buffed this spot, 0:27:40.244 --> 0:27:43.404 people will fold a lot. But it feels like in 0:27:43.484 --> 0:27:47.604 poker that can shift and adjust in different player populations, 0:27:47.644 --> 0:27:50.324 and like, you know, look, one thing about having like 0:27:50.324 --> 0:27:53.724 a capitalist, free market economy is like the market finds 0:27:53.724 --> 0:27:56.804 a way. The market finds a way to exploit any loopholes, 0:27:56.844 --> 0:27:59.924 to exploit any inefficiencies for better or worse. And the 0:27:59.924 --> 0:28:02.444 same is true in poker that like, you know, look 0:28:02.524 --> 0:28:04.924 right now, I'm probably you know, as a default, I'm 0:28:04.924 --> 0:28:07.684 probably folding in a lot of spots because people probably 0:28:07.724 --> 0:28:10.244 under bluff on average, right, unless there's like some type 0:28:10.244 --> 0:28:12.924 of physical read or other read. Right, But if you 0:28:12.924 --> 0:28:14.524 know that about me, then you can exploit the hell 0:28:14.524 --> 0:28:16.564 out of me, you know, And so you have to 0:28:16.564 --> 0:28:17.764 be constantly on your toes. 0:28:18.084 --> 0:28:21.444 Yeah, it's really interesting. One of the kind of first 0:28:21.484 --> 0:28:27.444 things that I learned from Eric is that he would 0:28:27.524 --> 0:28:29.964 never give me an answer to like how do I 0:28:30.004 --> 0:28:33.524 play this hand in this situation, because he said, you know, 0:28:33.884 --> 0:28:36.684 I can't tell you that because I'm not you. Right, 0:28:36.684 --> 0:28:41.164 when people see me, they expect something, and when they 0:28:41.204 --> 0:28:45.164 see you, they expect something else because you know, people 0:28:45.204 --> 0:28:48.644 have biases, people have preconceptions about how different people play, 0:28:49.124 --> 0:28:52.124 and you can probably get away with things that I 0:28:52.164 --> 0:28:54.404 can't get away with. He's like, you know, if you 0:28:54.644 --> 0:28:59.084 raise here, that looks so strong coming from you, right, 0:28:59.524 --> 0:29:02.884 And the implication is, you know I'm female. I am 0:29:03.324 --> 0:29:09.204 not you know, a world class ten bracelet whenever you know, 0:29:09.444 --> 0:29:12.284 I'm a very different sort of player. And so when 0:29:12.404 --> 0:29:16.324 I do something that, when I run a suicide bluff, 0:29:16.684 --> 0:29:20.444 I get a fold. When somebody comes in, you know, 0:29:20.564 --> 0:29:25.804 with sleeve tattoos and you know, a shaved head and 0:29:26.164 --> 0:29:30.244 huge biceps and tries the exact same bluff, they're probably 0:29:30.244 --> 0:29:31.164 going to get a call. 0:29:31.564 --> 0:29:33.924 Right, some of those huge bicep guys know exactly what 0:29:33.924 --> 0:29:37.164 they're doing and they're putting their their false exactly. And 0:29:37.164 --> 0:29:39.164 if you have some and being aware of life is 0:29:39.204 --> 0:29:42.724 complicated and like I can get different. I mean you've 0:29:42.724 --> 0:29:45.684 talked about written about because bluff. How like some men 0:29:46.684 --> 0:29:49.044 want to beat the hell out of yeah women at 0:29:49.084 --> 0:29:51.484 the table. Some want to be chivl risks and deferential. Right. 0:29:51.804 --> 0:29:53.484 My version of that is, like I can have a 0:29:53.524 --> 0:29:56.044 couple different stereotypes, like one is like, Okay, here is 0:29:56.084 --> 0:29:59.804 a statistics nerd. He must be very tight and very straightforward. 0:30:00.164 --> 0:30:02.284 The other is like, here's a guy who probably has 0:30:02.884 --> 0:30:04.364 what do you say amount of money he's in this 0:30:04.444 --> 0:30:06.244 is a hobby. He probably doesn't have some fun he 0:30:06.284 --> 0:30:09.324 can afford the buyings he's splashing around, right, So, like people, 0:30:09.404 --> 0:30:11.284 I can get bifcaate between like being seen as like 0:30:11.604 --> 0:30:14.044 overly tight and overly loose and being very aware of 0:30:14.164 --> 0:30:17.244 like your kind of microscopic like table image and things 0:30:17.284 --> 0:30:20.324 like that, or like even what hat I wear, right, hat, 0:30:20.324 --> 0:30:23.244 it's like wolf hat I sometimes wear that my partner hates, right, 0:30:23.284 --> 0:30:25.804 but like that create some more aggressive image. You have 0:30:25.844 --> 0:30:28.364 a Vegas Knight's hat that I sometimes wear, which is 0:30:28.364 --> 0:30:29.844 like if you're playing in Vegas, it's like an old 0:30:29.844 --> 0:30:32.004 man coffee local playing the game. 0:30:32.164 --> 0:30:32.364 Right. 0:30:32.444 --> 0:30:34.884 So like, even like wardrobe and things like that can 0:30:34.924 --> 0:30:36.444 affect these perceptions. 0:30:36.764 --> 0:30:41.164 Yeah, absolutely absolutely, And I think we make judgments about 0:30:41.164 --> 0:30:44.404 people all the time that are based on zero data. 0:30:44.924 --> 0:30:49.164 And that's another reason why you know, spotting deception. Being 0:30:49.164 --> 0:30:52.484 able to read people is so incredibly difficult because our 0:30:52.604 --> 0:30:56.804 own baseline is incredibly biased. Right when you see anyone, 0:30:56.884 --> 0:30:59.484 whether you know it or not, you are just constantly 0:30:59.524 --> 0:31:03.364 like making judgments, judgments, judgments, judgments, and before they even 0:31:03.404 --> 0:31:05.604 do anything. In poker, you do it before they play 0:31:05.644 --> 0:31:08.244 a single hand. In real life, you do it before 0:31:08.284 --> 0:31:12.364 you have a single conversation. Do you ever meet someone 0:31:12.364 --> 0:31:14.964 and you're like, I don't like this person. You haven't 0:31:14.964 --> 0:31:16.244 talked to them, and you're like, oh my god, this 0:31:16.284 --> 0:31:19.524 person's just rubbing me the wrong way, right, And like 0:31:19.604 --> 0:31:21.844 they might be perfectly nice and they haven't done anything, 0:31:21.884 --> 0:31:25.004 and you might even end up liking them later, but like, yeah, 0:31:25.044 --> 0:31:27.244 often you do, but like that initial reaction, like I 0:31:27.244 --> 0:31:31.164 definitely have that like ooof yeah, And then and then 0:31:31.204 --> 0:31:33.324 you have the opposite where like you're like, oh my god, 0:31:33.324 --> 0:31:35.284 I love you. We're going to be best friends, right, 0:31:35.564 --> 0:31:37.084 and then like by the end of the night, you're like, 0:31:37.204 --> 0:31:40.884 go away please, Right, you are the most annoying human 0:31:40.924 --> 0:31:45.244 I've ever met. But it goes in both ways. Both 0:31:45.324 --> 0:31:49.204 times you make these subconscious judgments based on cues that 0:31:49.244 --> 0:31:53.524 you probably don't even realize you're using. And it's because 0:31:54.284 --> 0:31:58.324 we have years and years and years of experiences that 0:31:58.364 --> 0:32:00.284 we're drawing on, right that make us who we are, 0:32:00.644 --> 0:32:04.364 that are our own biases, our own perspectives, and that's why, 0:32:04.564 --> 0:32:08.044 you know, reading people is hard in life and at 0:32:08.084 --> 0:32:11.604 the poker table, and we're bad at it unless we 0:32:11.724 --> 0:32:15.444 really really try to be empirically and data driven, which 0:32:15.484 --> 0:32:16.524 again is difficult. 0:32:21.764 --> 0:32:36.484 And we'll be right back after this break, so. 0:32:36.564 --> 0:32:40.524 We'll see how well Nate controls some of his tells. 0:32:40.604 --> 0:32:44.364 We are going to play a game called Lowden Thinks. 0:32:45.444 --> 0:32:51.524 So what this game is is I, well, one person 0:32:51.604 --> 0:32:54.124 it's going to be me this time, is going to 0:32:54.524 --> 0:32:57.764 ask the Lawden who's going to be Nate, a question 0:32:58.004 --> 0:33:01.364 which has a numerical answer. For instance, I could ask 0:33:01.444 --> 0:33:07.244 him how many subway stops are there in New York City. Okay, Now, 0:33:07.364 --> 0:33:12.644 the actual answers to this doesn't matter whatsoever. All that 0:33:12.724 --> 0:33:16.004 matters is what Nate thinks it is. So Nate is 0:33:16.004 --> 0:33:18.804 going to write his answer down. Don't write your answer 0:33:18.804 --> 0:33:22.404 to this one, but for you have an estimate. Okay. 0:33:22.444 --> 0:33:26.084 So Nate has an estimate. So he's going to write 0:33:26.124 --> 0:33:28.084 it down so that we know that it's locked in 0:33:28.164 --> 0:33:31.084 and that he's not lying, right. And then I'm going 0:33:31.124 --> 0:33:33.684 to ask two people from the audience to come up, 0:33:34.044 --> 0:33:38.084 and they are going to start kind of a bidding 0:33:38.084 --> 0:33:42.244 war to try to figure out Nate's answers. So, for instance, 0:33:42.524 --> 0:33:45.124 let's say it's the two of you ladies who are 0:33:45.164 --> 0:33:50.524 coming up, and so you could say, you could say ten, right, 0:33:50.684 --> 0:33:54.844 Nate thinks it's ten, and you would say ten's too low, right, 0:33:54.924 --> 0:33:57.564 So you pick a number that's you are allowed to 0:33:57.604 --> 0:34:00.524 say either under if you think it's under ten, or 0:34:00.564 --> 0:34:02.884 pick another number. So you might be like ten, that's crazy, 0:34:03.204 --> 0:34:06.164 fifty and you might be like, oh, fifty, that's crazy, 0:34:06.204 --> 0:34:10.004 that's too high. Under. Basically, you keep going until one 0:34:10.044 --> 0:34:13.884 person says under, and whoever gets closest to not the 0:34:13.924 --> 0:34:18.364 real answer, but what Nate thinks the answer is is 0:34:18.404 --> 0:34:22.124 the person who wins. So you know, let's say that 0:34:22.204 --> 0:34:26.324 you had said two hundred and you had said under. Okay, 0:34:26.404 --> 0:34:31.004 and Nate, what was your answer? All right? 0:34:31.084 --> 0:34:33.684 So you I think that's it doesn't matter. 0:34:33.964 --> 0:34:39.044 Doesn't that's the point, right, it doesn't matter, So you 0:34:39.044 --> 0:34:41.484 would have won because you said two hundred and you 0:34:41.524 --> 0:34:44.524 had the under on two hundred. We don't care about 0:34:44.524 --> 0:34:49.844 the actual answer, So your goal is not to immediately 0:34:49.924 --> 0:34:53.404 start thinking about what is the answer to this. Your 0:34:53.484 --> 0:34:58.124 goal is to think what does Nate think the answer is. 0:34:58.844 --> 0:35:01.644 So you have to do everything we've talked about tonight. 0:35:01.684 --> 0:35:04.084 You have to look at the world from Nate's perspective, 0:35:04.484 --> 0:35:06.844 and you have to observe him, you know, observe his 0:35:07.004 --> 0:35:09.804 tells because you know, if you had said, like hundred, 0:35:09.844 --> 0:35:11.684 he'd probably give you a look like you're crazy. Or 0:35:11.724 --> 0:35:14.924 maybe he's going to uh, you know, maybe he's going 0:35:15.004 --> 0:35:18.364 to protect him his uh, his poker face. Yeah, his 0:35:18.524 --> 0:35:21.004 range a little bit better than that. All right, So 0:35:21.644 --> 0:35:25.684 can we have two volunteers from the audience to guess 0:35:26.124 --> 0:35:30.764 our first a lotten question? We've got one hand back there, Yeah, 0:35:30.924 --> 0:35:35.684 come on up, Yeah, you back there, and we need 0:35:35.684 --> 0:35:44.724 a second. All right, up, you come all right. So 0:35:44.804 --> 0:35:50.484 here's my question. How many podcasts are there in the 0:35:50.524 --> 0:35:51.684 world right now? 0:35:52.604 --> 0:35:59.204 Can I ask for clarifying questions or no? How many podcasts? 0:35:59.244 --> 0:36:03.724 How many podcasts in the world? So Nate, let me 0:36:03.764 --> 0:36:06.964 know when you've written down your answer and make sure, Okay, 0:36:07.084 --> 0:36:10.124 I got it, you're locked in. All right? What's your name? 0:36:10.604 --> 0:36:15.164 My name is Rob, and what's your name Roger? All right, Rob, 0:36:15.324 --> 0:36:18.004 We're gonna start off the game with you, Rob. Why 0:36:18.044 --> 0:36:19.724 don't you throw out a number? All right? 0:36:20.204 --> 0:36:27.084 Big m I'll say ten. 0:36:26.924 --> 0:36:29.724 Thousand, all right, Roger, are you gonna go over? Are 0:36:29.764 --> 0:36:31.884 you gonna take the under? Over? 0:36:32.244 --> 0:36:32.604 All right? 0:36:32.684 --> 0:36:33.524 So what's your number? 0:36:34.404 --> 0:36:36.124 Twenty five? All right? 0:36:36.204 --> 0:36:40.284 Twenty five thousand, Rob, it's back to you, hess twenty five. 0:36:41.644 --> 0:36:43.604 I will I will match that. 0:36:44.164 --> 0:36:48.964 No, you can't match that. We're not sorry. You have to. 0:36:49.084 --> 0:36:51.164 You have to either take a number that's higher or 0:36:51.204 --> 0:37:01.244 say under. I'm gonna say thirty k. Okay, And remember, guys, 0:37:01.244 --> 0:37:02.724 you need to be looking at Nate, not at me. 0:37:02.924 --> 0:37:07.804 All right, So thirty k Roger? Are you? What are you? 0:37:07.884 --> 0:37:11.644 What are you gonna do? Do you like thirty? Are 0:37:11.684 --> 0:37:16.124 you under? Are you over? Oh? Look at Nate. He's 0:37:17.044 --> 0:37:21.204 Nate's losing it over here, melting under pressure, a swearty guy. 0:37:21.244 --> 0:37:22.484 I have a better poker face, And. 0:37:27.244 --> 0:37:31.484 Alright, thirty five thousand, Rob, back to you. I'll go 0:37:31.604 --> 0:37:34.604 under it, all right, Nate? What's your number? 0:37:36.404 --> 0:37:40.884 Three point six million? At right? 0:37:41.444 --> 0:37:45.604 All right, Roger, you win because you're closer, but you 0:37:45.644 --> 0:37:48.964 are everyone is off by well, the two of you 0:37:49.004 --> 0:37:51.444 are off by an order of magnitude from Nate's real guest. 0:37:51.284 --> 0:37:52.324 Do we know the real number? 0:37:52.524 --> 0:37:54.644 We do have the real number. I happen to look 0:37:54.684 --> 0:37:58.044 it up because I wanted to know. Four point five million? 0:37:58.244 --> 0:38:01.764 Holy shit, pretty good might be an assasination thing. 0:38:01.844 --> 0:38:09.404 Guys, does everyone here have a podcast? Because it seems like, uh, 0:38:09.444 --> 0:38:11.364 all right, we're gonna do We're gonna do. Do you 0:38:11.404 --> 0:38:12.404 guys want one more shot? 0:38:13.404 --> 0:38:14.444 Can idem myself? 0:38:14.564 --> 0:38:17.444 Yes, yes, we're gonna do a re We're gonna do 0:38:17.484 --> 0:38:23.524 a rematch because yeah, Rob wants a shot at redemption. 0:38:23.924 --> 0:38:28.244 All right, let's take a shot. All right, So so 0:38:28.324 --> 0:38:32.604 this one we'll do, uh, we'll do slightly non podcasting. 0:38:33.124 --> 0:38:39.444 We'll pay uh respects to our venue. How many live 0:38:39.444 --> 0:38:42.564 events does ludlow House host in a year. 0:38:44.484 --> 0:38:45.324 Of any kind? 0:38:45.684 --> 0:38:54.324 Many? Kind? No more clarifying questions leading the witness. You 0:38:54.364 --> 0:38:55.084 got your number. 0:38:56.204 --> 0:38:59.004 I'm like, I'm like doing some deceptive shit, right, I 0:38:59.124 --> 0:39:01.204 want people like you know, having reach side down. So 0:39:01.244 --> 0:39:02.044 I'm trying to mix up. 0:39:02.524 --> 0:39:05.124 All right, we've got some We've got some deceptive tells. 0:39:05.524 --> 0:39:08.844 All right, Rob, this one you start us off seven 0:39:09.004 --> 0:39:14.324 and fifty All right, Roger under you're taking the under. 0:39:14.364 --> 0:39:16.604 Oh well that was a short round of laden. 0:39:18.164 --> 0:39:23.924 Five fifty five. But what's the answer. This doesn't matter. 0:39:24.364 --> 0:39:26.564 The answer doesn't matter. This is what. I don't have 0:39:26.604 --> 0:39:30.684 the answer too because it is not public. But as 0:39:30.724 --> 0:39:34.044 far as I can tell, ludlow House does five to 0:39:34.204 --> 0:39:38.284 six live events a week, so multiply that by okay, 0:39:38.564 --> 0:39:41.004 maybe a little high, yeah, by fifty weeks. 0:39:41.204 --> 0:39:43.644 My justification was that as I was reading him, I 0:39:43.684 --> 0:39:45.964 was like, I feel like he usually would aim high. 0:39:46.004 --> 0:39:48.324 He did that with the how many podcasts were out 0:39:48.404 --> 0:39:49.564 in the whole world. 0:39:49.764 --> 0:39:54.564 I like this, you're extrapolating, You're using available information, you 0:39:54.604 --> 0:39:57.484 know what. I'm giving you an extra point for using 0:39:57.564 --> 0:40:00.924 data in a good way. And so oh I'm getting 0:40:00.924 --> 0:40:03.764 I'm getting booed. Apparently the audio the audience does not 0:40:03.964 --> 0:40:09.004 like that. So Roger, congratulations, An I don't mean that 0:40:09.764 --> 0:40:13.844 you are our London. Thanks champion, Thank you both so much. 0:40:13.924 --> 0:40:15.044 Thank you for volunteering. 0:40:16.604 --> 0:40:17.004 Thank you. 0:40:19.764 --> 0:40:22.884 All right, we have time for a few questions. Yeah, 0:40:23.844 --> 0:40:25.324 I just want to. 0:40:25.324 --> 0:40:27.924 Say, Maria, your book was the first book I read 0:40:27.964 --> 0:40:30.604 when I started playing poker, and so really excited to 0:40:30.644 --> 0:40:30.964 meet you. 0:40:32.164 --> 0:40:34.324 Thank you. I'm curious for you, guys. 0:40:34.604 --> 0:40:36.524 This is both a poker question while so out of 0:40:36.684 --> 0:40:39.164 outside of poker, what do you think is the difference 0:40:39.204 --> 0:40:41.964 between bias because you guys were talking about bias when 0:40:41.964 --> 0:40:44.444 you're playing, and like the reputation reading the reputation of 0:40:44.484 --> 0:40:48.884 someone at the table versus intuition, And do you feel 0:40:48.884 --> 0:40:51.724 like intuition comes into play for you, like having cards, 0:40:51.724 --> 0:40:54.484 sunds like, et cetera, or there's a big differentiation. 0:40:55.084 --> 0:40:59.924 That's that's a really great question. And I am someone 0:41:00.324 --> 0:41:03.924 who people get mad at because I'm like, do not 0:41:04.124 --> 0:41:08.204 follow your gut feeling. It's bullshit. So here's here's my rationale. 0:41:08.204 --> 0:41:13.044 It's not always true. So humans have very strong gut feelings, right, 0:41:13.284 --> 0:41:17.964 really strong intuitions, and our intuitions can be either true 0:41:18.084 --> 0:41:20.404 or false. Right, they can be either correct or not. 0:41:21.444 --> 0:41:24.804 When you study this and you actually kind of do 0:41:25.644 --> 0:41:29.204 the psych experiments, it turns out that we are about 0:41:29.244 --> 0:41:33.044 fifty to fifty at identifying correct from incorrect intuitions. So 0:41:33.204 --> 0:41:36.644 we feel like they're equally valid either way. Right, We're 0:41:36.724 --> 0:41:39.164 really really bad. Sometimes we think a correct one's wrong, 0:41:39.204 --> 0:41:42.764 and sometimes we think a wrong one's correct at chance levels. 0:41:43.164 --> 0:41:48.004 And so what I like to say is that the 0:41:48.124 --> 0:41:51.604 data show that the intuitions that you can actually trust 0:41:52.164 --> 0:41:56.604 are intuitions that aren't intuitions. They are deep expertise that 0:41:56.644 --> 0:42:00.484 you don't necessarily have conscious access to how you know it. 0:42:00.964 --> 0:42:03.724 So if you are an expert in this, right, if 0:42:03.764 --> 0:42:08.164 you are someone who has you know, thousands and thousands 0:42:08.164 --> 0:42:11.484 of hours of experience in this and like this is 0:42:11.524 --> 0:42:16.084 really your area, then you might know something. Your brain 0:42:16.204 --> 0:42:19.044 might be noticing patterns right there. I mean pattern recognition 0:42:19.084 --> 0:42:21.524 going on that your conscious brain isn't aware of because 0:42:21.524 --> 0:42:24.124 it's at a deeper level. So it feels like intuition 0:42:24.324 --> 0:42:27.284 to you, but it's not. It's actually expertise that you've 0:42:27.284 --> 0:42:31.164 worked really, really hard for. So the question you should 0:42:31.204 --> 0:42:35.884 ask is is there a reason why I should know this? Right? Like? 0:42:36.004 --> 0:42:38.684 Am I an expert in this field? Is this my domain? 0:42:39.124 --> 0:42:42.284 Have I experienced this many many times before? And if 0:42:42.324 --> 0:42:45.284 the answer is yes, then go for it, trust it. 0:42:45.324 --> 0:42:48.364 If the answer is no, then rely on other things. 0:42:48.564 --> 0:42:50.444 So what I would you know? Like in poker, I 0:42:50.484 --> 0:42:53.764 would say, like if at the table, I think you know, 0:42:53.924 --> 0:42:56.364 I think this person's bluffing, but I'm not sure why, 0:42:57.004 --> 0:42:59.924 Versus if Eric's idell says, I think this person's bluffing, 0:42:59.964 --> 0:43:03.644 but I'm not sure why. Trust Eric's intuition, don't trust mine. 0:43:03.884 --> 0:43:06.404 Eric's been doing this shit since the eighties. Right, he's 0:43:06.604 --> 0:43:11.804 a true expert. I'm not. And the funny thing is 0:43:12.564 --> 0:43:14.844 when it comes to reading people, the theme of you 0:43:14.844 --> 0:43:19.844 know this show, we all think we're experts because we 0:43:20.164 --> 0:43:22.644 read people all the time, we make judgments all the time. 0:43:22.644 --> 0:43:24.404 The problem is we don't know if we're right or not, 0:43:24.804 --> 0:43:28.084 So it feels like expertise when it's not because you 0:43:28.084 --> 0:43:30.484 don't get feedback. You're like, I think this person's lying, right, 0:43:30.524 --> 0:43:32.044 I think this person's telling the truth. But you have 0:43:32.084 --> 0:43:34.924 no idea, like you are constantly everyone thinks they're an 0:43:34.924 --> 0:43:38.284 expert at reading people, but we don't, you know, unless 0:43:38.324 --> 0:43:40.884 you're a poker player, or unless you're someone who constantly 0:43:40.924 --> 0:43:44.004 gets feedback about whether your reads were correct or not, 0:43:44.324 --> 0:43:47.884 you're a fake expert. Feels like expertise, but it's not. 0:43:47.964 --> 0:43:50.044 In terms of kind of like capital be biased. I'm 0:43:50.084 --> 0:43:53.524 like not trying to be overly woke or anything, but 0:43:53.604 --> 0:43:58.764 like making assumptions based on like race or gender doesn't 0:43:58.804 --> 0:44:00.564 work for a one poker because people can like actually 0:44:00.644 --> 0:44:05.724 take advantage of your expectation of them and therefore exploit you. Right, Absolutely, 0:44:05.764 --> 0:44:10.044 age tells you a little bit more amateur versus professional 0:44:10.164 --> 0:44:11.324 tells you a little bit more. 0:44:11.404 --> 0:44:15.124 Biggest bluffers I've ever encountered have been the like little 0:44:15.124 --> 0:44:18.844 old men who you're like, oh, like he's so sweet, 0:44:18.884 --> 0:44:19.844 he's not bluffing me. 0:44:19.964 --> 0:44:23.004 Yeah, it's like in your face because like and it 0:44:23.124 --> 0:44:25.124 probably you know, these kind of older guys will probably 0:44:25.204 --> 0:44:27.484 hire coaches or watch videos like I can get away 0:44:27.524 --> 0:44:30.524 with impunity with like bluffing a lot, and so yeah, 0:44:30.644 --> 0:44:34.164 I you know, any data you have when someone has 0:44:34.204 --> 0:44:36.324 someone actually played a hand, right, it can be like 0:44:36.364 --> 0:44:38.884 an old guy who's eighty five years old who looks 0:44:38.924 --> 0:44:42.044 like he's senile. Right, if you catch him making some 0:44:42.124 --> 0:44:45.324 huge bluff in the first hand he plays and like 0:44:45.364 --> 0:44:49.204 that totally outweighs any priors that you had about about 0:44:49.204 --> 0:44:49.964 his style. 0:44:49.724 --> 0:44:55.204 Of So always, when in doubt, use objective, observable data 0:44:55.764 --> 0:44:59.844 and be very very skeptical of your gut unless you're 0:44:59.844 --> 0:45:00.764 a true expert in it. 0:45:01.884 --> 0:45:04.004 Hi, my name is Julian. Great to mean you guys. 0:45:04.764 --> 0:45:07.604 My question is somewhat related, but it's essentially how do 0:45:07.604 --> 0:45:10.964 you discern between making a re or observing a tell 0:45:11.044 --> 0:45:15.004 that gives you an advantage versus falling for somebody trying 0:45:15.044 --> 0:45:16.764 to deceive you with like a fake tell. 0:45:17.084 --> 0:45:21.404 It's a good question, and there's no there's no clear 0:45:21.444 --> 0:45:24.884 cut answer, But I would say two things. One, despite 0:45:24.884 --> 0:45:27.884 what Nate says, I would urge you all not to 0:45:28.004 --> 0:45:33.604 try to throw fake tales. It's a very very risky proposition. 0:45:34.244 --> 0:45:38.724 And normally fake tales give away way more than you 0:45:38.724 --> 0:45:42.164 you know, than you're trying to. And I think that 0:45:42.484 --> 0:45:46.004 the most you can try to do is just standardize 0:45:46.044 --> 0:45:49.484 your behavior as much as possible. That's the advice that 0:45:49.524 --> 0:45:53.324 I got from kind of a behavioral expert who coaches 0:45:53.364 --> 0:45:57.964 poker players, is try to have a routine and follow 0:45:58.044 --> 0:46:01.284 that same routine, because otherwise you're going to give off information. 0:46:01.484 --> 0:46:03.804 Now, it's true because like some tells can have the 0:46:03.844 --> 0:46:06.764 reverse meaning based on very subtle distinctions. Right, Like you 0:46:06.844 --> 0:46:10.364 bet someone takes a long time to make all on 0:46:10.404 --> 0:46:12.804 the flop, right from like a truly novice player. We 0:46:12.844 --> 0:46:17.004 both play like charity tournaments. Sometimes probably sincere they probably 0:46:17.204 --> 0:46:19.444 are having trouble even reading the board telling how strong 0:46:19.484 --> 0:46:22.444 their hand is. Right from like the next step upward, 0:46:23.084 --> 0:46:26.684 then that might be deceiving you into betting again, right 0:46:27.804 --> 0:46:30.604 and then beyond that, it's probably more random someone's liberately 0:46:30.684 --> 0:46:34.124 randomizing or or whatever, but like knowing kind of what 0:46:34.244 --> 0:46:37.124 level somebody is on and if they if they become 0:46:37.164 --> 0:46:41.124 aware of something weird that occurs, right, you know, if 0:46:41.164 --> 0:46:43.164 you become aware like so, like let's say that, like 0:46:44.404 --> 0:46:48.124 you know, I have a hand where because it's I 0:46:48.124 --> 0:46:51.364 haven't eaten in fifteen hours, right, my hand troubles a 0:46:51.364 --> 0:46:54.844 little bit when I'm like making a bet. If I'm 0:46:54.884 --> 0:46:58.484 aware of that, that will affect my play for the 0:46:58.484 --> 0:47:01.644 rest of the hand. Like usually that's read as strength. 0:47:01.684 --> 0:47:03.964 There are some players for which that's not true, right, 0:47:05.364 --> 0:47:07.484 you know, sometimes stuck about reverse tells like can I 0:47:07.484 --> 0:47:10.404 make myself kind of like fake tremble on command. I'm 0:47:10.444 --> 0:47:12.364 not saying I've never tried that, you know what I mean. 0:47:13.604 --> 0:47:16.204 But it's all very context driven, which is just like 0:47:16.324 --> 0:47:19.644 human interaction. Right, The same statement can be ambiguous and 0:47:19.684 --> 0:47:22.004 can mean five different things coming from five different people 0:47:22.484 --> 0:47:24.884 or from the same person depending on the context who 0:47:24.884 --> 0:47:29.004 they're speaking to. Very precise changes and wording and language 0:47:29.044 --> 0:47:31.204 and things like that and facial expressions. 0:47:32.444 --> 0:47:35.884 Hi, We've spoke at the beginning about what you're comfortable with, 0:47:36.004 --> 0:47:37.764 and I'm curious to know if you worry about the 0:47:37.804 --> 0:47:41.764 slippery slope and how to keep a healthy boundary between 0:47:42.364 --> 0:47:45.724 the things that you would consider to be acceptable, like 0:47:45.844 --> 0:47:49.364 the bluffing being strategy and white lies with the pleasantries 0:47:49.764 --> 0:47:53.084 going on versus going on to that deep end where 0:47:53.844 --> 0:47:56.204 you know where is the line between that and then 0:47:56.284 --> 0:47:58.524 suddenly in your day to day carrying it over too 0:47:58.564 --> 0:48:01.044 much and losing track of what is a good lie, 0:48:01.124 --> 0:48:03.364 so to speak, versus a bad lie where the con 0:48:03.444 --> 0:48:04.004 people are. 0:48:04.404 --> 0:48:07.924 Yeah, I mean, I just try not to lie, to 0:48:07.924 --> 0:48:11.484 be perfectly honest. You know. My next book that I'm 0:48:11.484 --> 0:48:14.964 working on right now is about cheating in games, and 0:48:15.244 --> 0:48:17.964 you know, being around kind of that sort of deceptive 0:48:17.964 --> 0:48:25.644 behavior just gives me such awareness of how costly it 0:48:25.724 --> 0:48:29.884 is and of how costly it is for society that 0:48:30.244 --> 0:48:34.804 I've become more truthful as I've delved into that research, 0:48:34.964 --> 0:48:38.604 because I just want to like distinguish myself as much 0:48:38.644 --> 0:48:42.644 as possible from the people that I'm researching, because you 0:48:42.804 --> 0:48:47.044 see what the social cost is right of people taking cheating, 0:48:48.204 --> 0:48:51.484 you know, taking taking the rules of the game and 0:48:51.484 --> 0:48:58.004 breaking them and bending them and being unsportsmenlike in their behavior. 0:48:59.084 --> 0:49:03.324 So yeah, I think that there's really no slippery slope, 0:49:03.444 --> 0:49:05.804 like in the sense that if I'm playing a game 0:49:05.924 --> 0:49:08.884 like poker, you know, all bluff, it's a game, and 0:49:08.924 --> 0:49:12.964 then I'm done playing the game. And I have zero 0:49:13.004 --> 0:49:16.844 tolerance for angle shooting, which is something that's technically not cheating, 0:49:16.924 --> 0:49:19.804 but is bending the rules right, So it's doing something 0:49:19.844 --> 0:49:23.324 that's like a little underhanded, right to the to the 0:49:23.444 --> 0:49:26.604 edge of actually like being caught out for cheating. Like 0:49:26.644 --> 0:49:28.844 I hate that there are some players who say that 0:49:28.844 --> 0:49:31.964 it's acceptable strategy, right, if it's within the rules and 0:49:32.004 --> 0:49:34.084 it helps me win, I'm going to do it, And 0:49:34.164 --> 0:49:37.924 I think that's gross. So, like I I think it's 0:49:38.844 --> 0:49:41.924 made me less tolerant of all borderline behaviors. 0:49:42.764 --> 0:49:45.924 Yeah, I think ironically. I mean, like often the saddest 0:49:45.924 --> 0:49:47.604 things you see at a poker table where there's someone 0:49:47.604 --> 0:49:51.044 who just shouldn't be playing, often comes at the at 0:49:51.084 --> 0:49:52.924 the lower stakes king. And it's also by the way, 0:49:52.964 --> 0:49:55.764 we often experience the most like abusive behavior. Do you 0:49:55.804 --> 0:49:57.724 speak up if are you a see something, say something? 0:49:57.804 --> 0:50:01.444 Yeah, I always because I have been abused myself at 0:50:01.484 --> 0:50:04.644 the poker table as a female. You know, I'm usually 0:50:05.124 --> 0:50:08.404 a very easy target, and especially when I just started 0:50:08.404 --> 0:50:11.124 out playing you know, and nobody knew who I was, 0:50:11.204 --> 0:50:13.924 and I was playing kind of lower stakes at kind 0:50:13.924 --> 0:50:17.644 of these really kind of low end casinos. Like I 0:50:17.684 --> 0:50:21.644 experienced a lot of abuse, and as I've kind of 0:50:22.084 --> 0:50:26.604 grown in the game and kind of made my way 0:50:26.604 --> 0:50:30.284 in it so that I'm a recognizable face and I 0:50:30.324 --> 0:50:33.964 feel more comfortable there, I want to make sure to 0:50:34.084 --> 0:50:37.204 use my voice to protect people. So if there's bad 0:50:37.244 --> 0:50:41.484 behavior against other players, against dealers, against floor staff, I 0:50:41.524 --> 0:50:45.204 will absolutely say something and call it out there. There 0:50:45.204 --> 0:50:48.444 are a few poker players who hate me because I've 0:50:48.724 --> 0:50:51.644 like I've called the floor on them and have told 0:50:51.644 --> 0:50:53.604 them that what they were doing was not funny. 0:50:53.844 --> 0:50:55.564 Yeah, that's one thing you learned too, is like, because 0:50:55.644 --> 0:50:57.684 people can be quiet and low key, right, but like, 0:50:57.764 --> 0:51:00.124 I know lots of shit about people, I'm not saying 0:51:00.124 --> 0:51:02.484 anything about, right, And the same is true and reverse, 0:51:02.564 --> 0:51:04.804 especially if you are like kind of like a public 0:51:04.844 --> 0:51:08.724 figure who's known both for poker and for non poker things. 0:51:08.764 --> 0:51:11.764 But beware, the people are being very observant about what 0:51:11.804 --> 0:51:13.524 you're doing too, and this s park people probably aren't 0:51:13.524 --> 0:51:17.204 saying anything about it. There's some tactical advantage from remaining 0:51:17.524 --> 0:51:20.004 quiet about it yep right. 0:51:20.284 --> 0:51:23.604 Well, thank you all so much for joining this live 0:51:23.644 --> 0:51:27.084 taping of Risky Business. It was an absolute pleasure of 0:51:27.164 --> 0:51:29.804 having you all here. I hope that you feel more 0:51:30.004 --> 0:51:34.204 comfortable about reading tells and especially about reading Nate Silver. 0:51:34.244 --> 0:51:37.324 And when it comes to a lot of thanks, thank 0:51:37.364 --> 0:51:37.644 you all. 0:51:37.924 --> 0:51:38.644 Thank you so much. 0:51:47.484 --> 0:51:49.284 Let us know what you think of the show. Reach 0:51:49.324 --> 0:51:53.724 out to us at Risky Business at pushkin dot FM. 0:51:53.804 --> 0:51:56.884 Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kanakova. 0:51:56.524 --> 0:51:59.204 And by me Nate Silver. The show was a whole 0:51:59.244 --> 0:52:03.204 production of Pushing Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced 0:52:03.244 --> 0:52:07.564 by Isaa Carter. Our associate producer is Sonya gerwit Lydia, 0:52:07.684 --> 0:52:10.404 Jean Kott and Daphne Chen are our our editors, and 0:52:10.444 --> 0:52:14.444 our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. Mixing by Sarah Bruger. 0:52:15.004 --> 0:52:17.204 If you like the show, please rate and review us 0:52:17.244 --> 0:52:19.924 so other people can find us too, But once again, 0:52:20.044 --> 0:52:21.884 only if you like us. We don't want those bad 0:52:21.924 --> 0:52:24.084 reviews out there. Thanks for tuning in.