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Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making

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Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova.

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Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silver.

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Speaker 1: He is Nate Silver.

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Speaker 2: You often like crack up during can but like, yeah,

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Speaker 2: we're not going to do that to time.

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Speaker 1: Today We're going to be straight faced. So today on

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Speaker 1: the show, we have a really fun live show for you.

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Speaker 1: Today we're going to be talking about reading people, the

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Speaker 1: art of tell's deception, bluffing, and all all of that

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Speaker 1: fun stuff. And after we kind of lay the groundwork,

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Speaker 1: you guys better be paying really close attention because we'll

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Speaker 1: be having people come up here to demonstrate how much

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Speaker 1: you've learned about the art of greeting people.

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Speaker 2: It's a five hundred dollar our entry fee. It's on

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Speaker 2: the back of your ticket.

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Speaker 1: So, Nate, you and I have just come back from

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Speaker 1: Las Vegas, where we were both playing in the North

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Speaker 1: American Poker Tour Famous Any Famous, Famous NAPT And you

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Speaker 1: know poker and life are our games where there's bluffing. Nate,

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Speaker 1: how are you at bluffing? How are you at bluffing

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Speaker 1: and poker? And how are you at bluffing in life

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Speaker 1: which might otherwise be known as lying?

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Speaker 2: I think I'm a pretty good bluffer in poker, both

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Speaker 2: kind of understanding like the game theory behind win to

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Speaker 2: bluff and also like kind of have a few tricks

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Speaker 2: to like pull things off right ironically in like real life,

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Speaker 2: I kind of I kind of been very bad at

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Speaker 2: lying in real life. I think my partner's here tonight,

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Speaker 2: so you can confirm or deny that potentially. But no,

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Speaker 2: I get very uncomfortable with you know, who is it

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Speaker 2: like a lie takes too much work? Right? Kind lazy? No,

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Speaker 2: It's like even things like like so when I was

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Speaker 2: hiring people at five thirty eight, were with at Disney, right, like,

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Speaker 2: what's the kind of the long term stability of this company?

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Speaker 2: At the ABC News ESPN, I be like, I don't

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Speaker 2: really know. You know, I'm under contract for a couple

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Speaker 2: of years and we'll see what happens and so like.

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Speaker 2: But I'm very comfortable, like in any type of negotiation

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Speaker 2: or relationship, like I don't think it serves people certainly

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Speaker 2: when purpose in the long run to kind of like

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Speaker 2: form a relationship on false pretenses because it gets discovered

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Speaker 2: later on. Right. No, So I'm an honest person mostly

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Speaker 2: out of like laziness in real life, but in the

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Speaker 2: context of poker. You know, poker would not exist without bluffing.

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Speaker 2: That's what makes poker poker. I don't consider bluffing in

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Speaker 2: poker to be lying. Also, when people, you know, people

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Speaker 2: ask you, oh, what did you have? Right, so people

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Speaker 2: are like, oh, if you actually ask a question, they

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Speaker 2: won't like literally lie, I will, I will, I will

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Speaker 2: lie my ass off, but like of what my ham was?

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Speaker 2: I think it's like part of the game, but only

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Speaker 2: a game. How about you are you Are you a bluffer? Maria?

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Speaker 1: Well, you know, I when people ask me like, oh,

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Speaker 1: you know, you wrote a book about con artists and

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Speaker 1: now you're a poker player, so you're basically doing that.

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Speaker 1: And I want to say no, absolutely not, because, as

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Speaker 1: you say, poker is a game and bluffing is part

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Speaker 1: of it, right, It's actually part of the rules. So

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Speaker 1: everyone expects you to not tell the truth to bluff.

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Speaker 1: That is one of the strategic elements of the game.

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Speaker 1: Con Artists lie when they're supposed to be telling the truth.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 1: Part of the rules of life is that we can

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Speaker 1: trust each other, Right, you can trust me, I can

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Speaker 1: trust you. We're not going to lie to each other

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Speaker 1: when we see each other. And in fact, there's actually

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Speaker 1: a lot of psychology that shows that humans have evolved

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Speaker 1: for truthful relationships, not for deception, and that kind of

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Speaker 1: trust is the default option. So in lots of study

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Speaker 1: where you have people play all sorts of games. So

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Speaker 1: we talk a lot about game theory on the show,

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Speaker 1: and there are lots of games where you start off

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Speaker 1: where you can either kind of cooperate or defect. Right,

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Speaker 1: you can play by the rules, or you can cheat,

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Speaker 1: you can lie. And it turns out that more often

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Speaker 1: than not, like in the absence of any kind of

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Speaker 1: incentive or pressure to the contrary, people start off cooperating

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Speaker 1: and they start off in a very trusting stance, and

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Speaker 1: that's actually, like, to me, that's really great, right, that's

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Speaker 1: a very like hopeful thing for humanity, and societies with

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Speaker 1: high levels of trust tend to do better. And you know,

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Speaker 1: the reason that humans are actually pretty bad at spotting

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Speaker 1: deception is that most people don't lie every day, right,

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Speaker 1: And it's evolutionarily beneficial to just assume people are telling

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Speaker 1: the truth. If you always thought everyone was lying like that,

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Speaker 1: that ain't a good That ain't a good place to do.

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Speaker 2: Like in like small communities. Then there's a reputational cast.

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Speaker 2: I'm not that you know gto about it. It's like

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Speaker 2: a reputational cost to lying or bad behavior, right, but

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Speaker 2: it varies lot by society. I was with my partner

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Speaker 2: and a friend in Korea for New Year's We were

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Speaker 2: like shopping one day in some very busy area, and

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Speaker 2: the shopkeeper at this very nice, busy shop went to

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Speaker 2: get lunch, right, and he just kind of leaves, he

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Speaker 2: leaves a door open. He's like, I'll be back in

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Speaker 2: ten minutes. I'm grabbing some lunch, right, And like you

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Speaker 2: could totally shoplift like whatever you want it because it's

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Speaker 2: such a high trust society there that like there might

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Speaker 2: be CCTV or whatever else. But like you take Marian,

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Speaker 2: I'm not a I stole. I will say I.

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Speaker 1: Stole Confessions of Risky Business.

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Speaker 2: I stole taco Bell from the University of Chicago cafeteria

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Speaker 2: one time, right. But the reason was because like the

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Speaker 2: line to check out, It's like it was like they

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Speaker 2: had like a pizza hut and a taco Bell and

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Speaker 2: some other shitty era Mark concessions, right, and it was

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Speaker 2: like a fifteen minute line to check out. I'm like,

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Speaker 2: I'm you know, it's worth running the risk of getting

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Speaker 2: caught dealing tacos if you have to wait fifteen minutes

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Speaker 2: to check out.

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Speaker 1: All right, University of Chicago. Next time they bought, they

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Speaker 1: caught you. Yeah, so what happened? What were the repercussions hearing?

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Speaker 2: And I don't know. It was the first offense, so

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Speaker 2: they let me off, basically, but I'm.

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Speaker 1: So glad they let you graduate. And you know, we

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Speaker 1: wouldn't be sitting here otherwise. But but yeah, so so

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Speaker 1: to go back to your kind of original question, I

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Speaker 1: don't really you know, I don't think that I'm particularly

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Speaker 1: good at lying in real life because I really don't.

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Speaker 1: Now I tell white lies, and I think we all

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Speaker 1: tell white lies, which is one reason another reason why

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Speaker 1: we're so bad at spotting deception. Can you imagine what

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Speaker 1: would happen if you were able to tell every single

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Speaker 1: time someone said a white lie to you, Like, just

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Speaker 1: just think about it, right, Like it's so good to

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Speaker 1: see you.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, well I love it. I love that you

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Speaker 2: look great, but like, like, look.

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Speaker 1: You know, if you have loved that baseball cafe.

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Speaker 2: Yea, thank you, marry that. If you have a friend

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Speaker 2: who cancels plans because they're sick. Maybe they're actually sick, right, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: maybe they're having a really bad day, right, Maybe the

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Speaker 2: fling of their life unexpectedly came into town. Right, maybe

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Speaker 2: who knows, right, But like you don't need to be

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Speaker 2: brutally honest, Like I'm not a big believer in like

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Speaker 2: I think people are like, oh, radical transparency about everything.

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Speaker 2: It's like you don't understand like the subtlety and like

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Speaker 2: the density of like human communication. Actually, one thing I

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Speaker 2: think you learned from AI models arts language models is

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Speaker 2: like how laden with density, like word choices are and

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Speaker 2: terns of phrase are and the particular analogy or allegory

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Speaker 2: that you might use, right, Because you're often trying to

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Speaker 2: communicate with like multiple people at once. Right, You're trying

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Speaker 2: to say one you're dog whistling to some group of people,

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Speaker 2: and you're saying you coming different things to different people.

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Speaker 2: It's often kind of less subtle than people think if

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Speaker 2: you consider like political communication example, But like language is

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Speaker 2: a very rich medium and a very like strategic medium.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, And when you're communicating, And this is something

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Speaker 1: that you really learn in poker, is that language is

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Speaker 1: nonverbal too, right, when you kind of go from the

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Speaker 1: real life arena to kind of the arena something like games.

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Speaker 1: I used to be absolutely horrible at bluffing as well,

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Speaker 1: because I'm so uncomfortable lying right, and I felt really

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Speaker 1: and I felt really anxious and nervous when when I bluffed,

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Speaker 1: and if I got caught bluffing, I was like, oh, no, right,

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Speaker 1: I got cop bluffing. Where of course, the kind of

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Speaker 1: the common wisdom is that if you're never caught bluffing,

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Speaker 1: you're not bluffing enough. Right. It's part of the game.

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Speaker 1: You're you're supposed to be cop bluffing. Sometimes you're supposed

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Speaker 1: to bluff a lot. And what ended up actually helping

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Speaker 1: me and getting me kind of over the hump to

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Speaker 1: where I could start bluffing more successfully is when I

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Speaker 1: stopped thinking of it as deception and started thinking of

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Speaker 1: it as, oh, like, I understand the game better now,

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Speaker 1: and this is actually the correct move for me to make, right,

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Speaker 1: It is one of my strategic choices, and in this

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Speaker 1: particular moment, this is the proper strategy. And so it

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Speaker 1: you know, you were talking before about how you tell

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Speaker 1: the truth in real life, because it's just you're lazy, Well,

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Speaker 1: deception does create cognitive load, So it creates a lot

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Speaker 1: of kind of tension and extra overhead kind of inside

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Speaker 1: your brain. And because you have to kind of try

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Speaker 1: to think, does my story make sense? Right? Am I

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Speaker 1: being consistent? Is it logical? And you have to try

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Speaker 1: to think, oh, am I giving off anything? Right? Can

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Speaker 1: people tell? Like there's there's just a lot that starts happening.

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Speaker 1: So if you stop thinking of it as you know,

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Speaker 1: as a lie, you can actually reduce the cognitive load

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Speaker 1: and just say, Okay, this is how I should be

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Speaker 1: playing right.

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Speaker 2: Now, I'm like sometimes more comfortable bluffing than I am

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Speaker 2: with a strong man, right, which is a little Karen intuitive.

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Speaker 2: It might give you some reverse to but like the

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Speaker 2: way I look at it, Maria, is when I bet,

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Speaker 2: I'm saying I have a range of hands, right, I'm saying, Look,

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Speaker 2: I'm betting I might have some good hands. I might

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Speaker 2: have some bad hands. I don't want you to know

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Speaker 2: either way, right, I want to keep you guessing either way.

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Speaker 2: That's an honest statement of like my range of hands.

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Speaker 1: So the reason I have I have my phone up

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Speaker 1: here for several reasons, but one of them is because

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Speaker 1: so we just got back from the NAPT and I

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Speaker 1: love that Natel said he feels more comfortable bluffing than

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Speaker 1: he does telling the truth. Because I got a message.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah. So I have a substack called the Leap,

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Speaker 1: and one of my paid subscribers was at NAPT playing

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Speaker 1: and he played with Nate, and so I come home

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Speaker 1: to this message from him. You know, hi, Maria, it

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Speaker 1: was a nice meeting. Again. I had a great time

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Speaker 1: this trip despite not cashing. Please tell Nate that he

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Speaker 1: still bluffs too much. Oh no, So then I go,

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Speaker 1: I go, ha ha ha. I'll make sure to tell him.

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Speaker 1: And then he continues, and he says, I only saw

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Speaker 1: one big bluff that was caught by a pair on

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Speaker 1: a missed flush draw board. But from his past interviews

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Speaker 1: I learned about his high bluff frequency, which someone else

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Speaker 1: may have used at the table. I'm sure Nate's a

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Speaker 1: better player than man. Doesn't need my advice, but I'm

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Speaker 1: giving it to you anyway. So do you remember this hand.

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Speaker 1: Apparently some you know, someone noticed that you were bluffing

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Speaker 1: too much, Nate. How did you do in that tournament?

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Speaker 2: Nate, Maria, So I write, So we're doing a little

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Speaker 2: thing with with Sam Greenwood runs a blog called pen

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Speaker 2: of the Day. So I wrote down for this whole

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Speaker 2: week of poker all my questionably played in hands. There

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Speaker 2: were quite a few, if we're being honest, right, but

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Speaker 2: like probably the three hands that I believe were the

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Speaker 2: worst plays or hands where I didn't bluff where I

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Speaker 2: should have. Right, it's like counterintuitive how often you actually

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Speaker 2: are supposed to bluff? Yeah, in poker, because it does

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Speaker 2: feel like really bad when you bluffing at caught. It

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Speaker 2: doesn't feel that bad when you have you have a

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Speaker 2: big value hand, When you have like a full house

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Speaker 2: or a flush or a straight and you bet and

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Speaker 2: you don't get called, right, then it's like, oh, okay,

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Speaker 2: well you know you didn't have anything you didn't pay off.

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Speaker 2: But if you don't bluff enough then you won't get

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Speaker 2: paid off as much. And so no, I think I

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Speaker 2: probably still I think I'm like, I bluff more than

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Speaker 2: the stereotyped version of Nate you have might assume, But

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Speaker 2: I probably still under bluff relative to game theory or

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Speaker 2: how often in practice it could probably could probably get

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Speaker 2: away with it.

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Speaker 1: Did you have any bluffs that you're very proud of?

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Speaker 1: Because I actually so this was a very good series

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Speaker 1: for me, and I had one bluff in particular that

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Speaker 1: I'm very proud of that actually enabled me to do

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Speaker 1: really well in the tournament that I did really well in.

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Speaker 2: So some bluffs I like are where you make like

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Speaker 2: so empirically certain lines are underutilized. Right, So one bluff

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Speaker 2: I like is like often when people make like a

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Speaker 2: small bet, then the representing like a you know, oactch

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Speaker 2: have a me yocre ham, it's better than your hand, right,

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Speaker 2: I have top pair with a bad kicker or a

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Speaker 2: bad flesh or second pair, and you probably don't have

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Speaker 2: top pair given the way the hand was played out,

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Speaker 2: and then make like.

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Speaker 1: Small people who don't play poker. These are all like

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Speaker 1: second best hands.

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Speaker 2: So the second where like I think my hand is

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Speaker 2: just like slightly better than you are. I love making small,

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Speaker 2: yep bluffs that are very cheap with hands I can

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Speaker 2: represent like second best hands trying to get a little value,

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Speaker 2: and they're very cheap, you know what I mean. I

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Speaker 2: made a bluff in a limit game, which is hard

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Speaker 2: to do. I was playing like some seven card stood

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Speaker 2: eight or better, right, and like I had a great draw.

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Speaker 4: I could get a low or high or whatever.

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Speaker 2: And I and I missed everything right, and the guy

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Speaker 2: bet and I'm I raise just like just raising, like

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Speaker 2: he's getting like fifteen to one, right, he has to

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Speaker 2: be right one out of fifteen times for his bluff

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Speaker 2: to right, and he folds the whole pot.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: I scooped the pot with a bluff, So that felt good, Maria.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, those are those are actually very smart bluffs when

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Speaker 1: you when you just bluff a little bit because it

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Speaker 1: seems like you want people to call you right. My

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Speaker 1: bluff that ended up working, though, was the very opposite.

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Speaker 1: I was out of position, so I was in the

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Speaker 1: big blind. So for people who don't play poker, being

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Speaker 1: out of position is not good, right, because you always

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Speaker 1: act first and the person you're playing with act second

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Speaker 1: and in everything. But also like when you're talking about

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Speaker 1: tells and reading people, you want more information, right, The

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Speaker 1: more information the better, and so getting to go second

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Speaker 1: is a huge advantage. And so I was out of

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Speaker 1: position against a player who's a very good player this

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Speaker 1: whole hand, and I had jack ten, you know, really

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Speaker 1: nice hand was suited. You know, I had a straight

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Speaker 1: draw and I just then ended up having a flush draw. Anyway,

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Speaker 1: I bricked everything but there were two different flush draws

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Speaker 1: on the board, and he bet, he raised, you know,

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Speaker 1: pre flop, he bet flop, he bet turned and then

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Speaker 1: the river comes, it completes the wrong flush, not mine,

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Speaker 1: and I have nothing and the pot is huge, and

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Speaker 1: I did something very unorthodox, and I just shoved before

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Speaker 1: he had a chance to act, so I took the

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Speaker 1: momentum from him, and he ended up folding. It was

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Speaker 1: very funny because this is a spot that people don't

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Speaker 1: bluff very often, right when the board changes so much,

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Speaker 1: because it's kind of suicidal to run that bluff. But

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Speaker 1: my suicidal bluff worked, and it felt really good because

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Speaker 1: I think that past me would not have been able

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Speaker 1: to do something like that, because once again, bluffing and

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Speaker 1: lying are two very different things. And this is also

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Speaker 1: where nonverbal tells come into play a little bit, because,

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Speaker 1: you know, something about his behavior made me think that

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Speaker 1: he had been trying to bully me out of the

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Speaker 1: hand for a long time, and so I was using

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Speaker 1: that as well to kind of inform my kind of

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Speaker 1: my thinking that maybe his hand was not so strong

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Speaker 1: that he'd feel compelled to call.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm a big believer in nonverbal tells and kind

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Speaker 2: of it often. I mean there are sometimes specific things

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure when you have way too many secrets,

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Speaker 2: but it's more often kind of like an overall vibe.

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Speaker 2: I've Maria, I've kind of become a you can play

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Speaker 2: with me, like at the same table in a while,

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Speaker 2: become like a little bit more of a speech play

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Speaker 2: guy where I'll like, I'll like talk to people, especially Europeans.

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Speaker 2: The Europeans play poker are like they're very quiet, right,

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Speaker 2: I'm like, where are you from? You know which part

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Speaker 2: of Belli? They're usually from Belgium? Like which part of

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Speaker 2: Belgium are you from? Just kind of see if people

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Speaker 2: are comfortable or not, and like, you know, it's kind

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Speaker 2: of if you're if you're considering, Like let's say it's

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Speaker 2: a spot where like a player bets big on the river,

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Speaker 2: he might be bluffing. I'm not planning on rebraising either

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Speaker 2: because I'm all in any way, or or I'm not

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Speaker 2: going to raise right, and like you kind of get

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Speaker 2: free info just by talking to people. But it's an

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Speaker 2: overall kind of aura or vibe and like it's not

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Speaker 2: something mysterious, just like we are. We have like human interactions, right,

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Speaker 2: Like in real life, you hopefully have intuition for when

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Speaker 2: you're being deceived. For example, one is like when someone's

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Speaker 2: not telling the full story, and like, yeah, and poker,

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Speaker 2: you just kind of developed like this implicit database of

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Speaker 2: like semantics and signals, and you'd be like foolish, like

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Speaker 2: not to account for that. I don't think.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I always like to talk to people, and I

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Speaker 1: think the reason that it works. I don't do it

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Speaker 1: for tells, but I do it, you know, because it

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Speaker 1: actually does help me later on. And this is the

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Speaker 1: journalist in me, right, Like I'm genuinely curious to find

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Speaker 1: out why people are there, what are they doing, what

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Speaker 1: are their motivations? You know, why are you playing this event?

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Speaker 1: Did you come? You know? Are you a professional? Are

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Speaker 1: you here because your wife gave you a present? Because

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Speaker 1: you've wanted to play this event forever? All of this

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00:18:05,764 --> 00:18:09,084
Speaker 1: is information, right, All of this tells you something about

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Speaker 1: people and something that poker has really made me good at,

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Speaker 1: which you know, it's funny because you think of it

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Speaker 1: as kind of this cutthroat game, but it's actually made

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Speaker 1: me a much better listener, right, It's made me someone

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Speaker 1: who's much more attuned to the signals that other people

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Speaker 1: give out because I mean at the poker table, it

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Speaker 1: can help me take your money, but it also like

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Speaker 1: it's rewarded. Right, When you truly listen to other people,

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Speaker 1: you are able to understand where they're coming from, take

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Speaker 1: their perspective, which humans are really bad at doing. Right. Normally,

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Speaker 1: when we think we're taking someone else's perspective, what we're

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Speaker 1: doing is taking our perspective and lumping it onto the

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Speaker 1: other person. And we're like, oh, I know exactly what

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Speaker 1: you're thinking. It's what I would be thinking if I

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Speaker 1: were in your shoes, And that's usually completely wrong. Right,

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Speaker 1: we're so ego centric and to be able to kind

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Speaker 1: of actually take a step back and figure out, wait, no,

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Speaker 1: this is what they would be thinking because they've told

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Speaker 1: me more about themselves. It helps you strategically, but then

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Speaker 1: it helps you in real life just be a better person.

364
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Speaker 3: No.

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Speaker 2: One of the best pieces of poker advice I've listened

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Speaker 2: to you recently. I think he's from Hungry Horse Poker.

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Speaker 2: I think his name is Mark Goon, a good YouTuber. Right,

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Speaker 2: he's like, remember thinking about the poker world from the

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Speaker 2: opponent's point of view, right, like putting yourself in the

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Speaker 2: other player's shoes and like what's bothering them? Yeah, especially

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Speaker 2: for for amateur players, right, one thing you see all

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Speaker 2: the time and like big events like the main event

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Speaker 2: or other big events. The World Sairs of Poker is

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Speaker 2: like some guy comes in. He won his kind of

375
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Speaker 2: like local home game tournament. His friends bought him in

376
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Speaker 2: for tank the World Series of Poker. It's some prize

377
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Speaker 2: from some series they have, right, And you can like

378
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Speaker 2: kind of pinpoint the moment where something like I want

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Speaker 2: to play tight, gonna play solid, Right, you can like

380
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Speaker 2: pinpoint the moment when they kind of were like, shit,

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Speaker 2: this isn't working, right, they panic a little bit. Some

382
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Speaker 2: of these are more obvious. So I played a cash

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Speaker 2: game at the BLA show last night. I'm my way

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Speaker 2: out of town.

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Speaker 1: This is true dgen behavior.

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Speaker 2: Guys would write football. There was a guy and now

387
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Speaker 2: we get into gendered stereotypes. Right, there was a guy

388
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Speaker 2: who had his like his girlfriend sitting directly behind him

389
00:20:26,444 --> 00:20:29,724
Speaker 2: making faces about every hand. I'm like, this guy probably

390
00:20:29,804 --> 00:20:33,604
Speaker 2: is not bluffing old punch right when like when it

391
00:20:33,684 --> 00:20:35,444
Speaker 2: was like his girlfriend's they are like approving it is

392
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Speaker 2: from them. Is like play in every hair like i'd be.

393
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Speaker 2: You know, he's not bluffing like ever, right, don't think so, Nate.

394
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Speaker 1: The funny thing is it turns out that we humans

395
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Speaker 1: are remarkably good at controlling our faces. Right, We are

396
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Speaker 1: really good at poker faces. If you want to look

397
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Speaker 1: at nonverbal behavior, if you want to look at tells,

398
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Speaker 1: if you want to figure out is this person bluffing

399
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Speaker 1: in the case of poker or lying deceiving me in

400
00:21:04,004 --> 00:21:07,884
Speaker 1: the case of day to day interactions, looking at their

401
00:21:07,924 --> 00:21:09,364
Speaker 1: face is the wrong place to look.

402
00:21:09,404 --> 00:21:09,604
Speaker 3: Look.

403
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Speaker 1: There are lots of studies that show that basically our

404
00:21:13,764 --> 00:21:17,724
Speaker 1: faces give almost nothing away because we're so incredibly used

405
00:21:17,764 --> 00:21:20,364
Speaker 1: to controlling them. Right, that's the one thing you're always

406
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Speaker 1: thinking about, Like poker face, right am, I giving anything away?

407
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Speaker 1: That's something that most people are actually really, really good at.

408
00:21:27,964 --> 00:21:30,044
Speaker 1: But what you're not used to controlling is the rest

409
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Speaker 1: of your body. Right. You don't realize that you're leaking

410
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Speaker 1: information through your posture, through your hands, through your feet,

411
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Speaker 1: through all of these other things. That's where people should

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Speaker 1: be staring.

413
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Speaker 2: No, it's it's the hands.

414
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Speaker 1: It's the hands. Yes, anyone who's read the biggest bluff,

415
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Speaker 1: I have a whole chapter about the hands.

416
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Speaker 2: It's the pulse. Often. I mean, I find a guy

417
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Speaker 2: in the main event that the World series where like

418
00:21:51,484 --> 00:21:53,764
Speaker 2: like literally had like a real time heart rate monitor

419
00:21:54,204 --> 00:21:56,124
Speaker 2: hook up to him, where like he just had this

420
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Speaker 2: thing where like his heart was beating his neck. If

421
00:21:58,524 --> 00:22:00,444
Speaker 2: you have that happen, it can happen to people temporarily

422
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Speaker 2: or permanently. We're like we're a skyrif wear like a

423
00:22:03,324 --> 00:22:07,204
Speaker 2: sweatshirt or something. Right, But like it was very correlated,

424
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Speaker 2: Like I knew because he made it. We just you know, look,

425
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Speaker 2: you pick up a whole vocabulary just based on having

426
00:22:12,644 --> 00:22:14,644
Speaker 2: a lot of reps doing these things. Right, he was

427
00:22:14,684 --> 00:22:18,124
Speaker 2: already making mannerisms that I associate with having like a

428
00:22:18,244 --> 00:22:20,764
Speaker 2: very strong hand. In this case, he had aces and

429
00:22:20,844 --> 00:22:23,324
Speaker 2: you saw his heartbeat and saw, Okay, here's a guy

430
00:22:23,644 --> 00:22:27,244
Speaker 2: where his heartbeat beats faster when he has his strong hand, right,

431
00:22:27,604 --> 00:22:29,804
Speaker 2: which is not true for everybody. Some people are the opposite.

432
00:22:30,204 --> 00:22:31,684
Speaker 2: And so like now, like I basically know is like

433
00:22:31,724 --> 00:22:34,164
Speaker 2: hand strength for the rest of the day, Like that's

434
00:22:34,204 --> 00:22:37,444
Speaker 2: a huge advantage that explicit is rare, but like, yeah,

435
00:22:37,524 --> 00:22:42,084
Speaker 2: it's often kind of like also watching people before you

436
00:22:42,084 --> 00:22:44,644
Speaker 2: get into big moments in the hand, right, because once

437
00:22:44,644 --> 00:22:47,524
Speaker 2: they're locked in, then they're self conscious. Like what you're

438
00:22:47,524 --> 00:22:50,004
Speaker 2: trying to figure out too, is like, okay, somebody makes

439
00:22:50,044 --> 00:22:54,484
Speaker 2: an action. Was that conscious? Was it unconscious? If it

440
00:22:54,564 --> 00:22:57,244
Speaker 2: was unconscious to them, become aware. Oh I took a

441
00:22:57,284 --> 00:23:00,084
Speaker 2: little bit a while to make that call. That might

442
00:23:00,164 --> 00:23:03,044
Speaker 2: look weak or it might look strong, depending on context.

443
00:23:03,124 --> 00:23:05,364
Speaker 2: It's all. It's like regular language, right, it's all. It's

444
00:23:05,364 --> 00:23:07,644
Speaker 2: all very contextual. They said that might be strong and

445
00:23:07,724 --> 00:23:09,804
Speaker 2: one context might be weak. In other context. You're trying

446
00:23:09,804 --> 00:23:11,444
Speaker 2: to like paint a semantic portrait.

447
00:23:17,324 --> 00:23:29,044
Speaker 1: We'll be back right after this. So there's kind of

448
00:23:29,244 --> 00:23:33,164
Speaker 1: three bigger picture psych things here that I want to

449
00:23:33,244 --> 00:23:36,044
Speaker 1: kind of draw out. So first, the reason that Nate

450
00:23:36,124 --> 00:23:38,604
Speaker 1: was able to use some of this information is because

451
00:23:38,644 --> 00:23:42,484
Speaker 1: he had immediate feedback, which we normally don't have in life. Right,

452
00:23:42,924 --> 00:23:45,804
Speaker 1: He saw that pulse and then he saw that there

453
00:23:45,884 --> 00:23:48,844
Speaker 1: was a strong hand associated with it, and so he

454
00:23:49,004 --> 00:23:52,804
Speaker 1: had that. You know, this means that now imagine that

455
00:23:53,084 --> 00:23:55,284
Speaker 1: you didn't get to see the cards, you would have

456
00:23:55,524 --> 00:23:57,604
Speaker 1: no way of knowing if this was a signal of

457
00:23:57,644 --> 00:24:02,844
Speaker 1: strength or weakness, and the exact same thing might actually

458
00:24:02,884 --> 00:24:07,844
Speaker 1: signal very different outcomes, very different. You know, I'm being

459
00:24:07,924 --> 00:24:10,844
Speaker 1: lied to or this person and you know is telling

460
00:24:10,884 --> 00:24:15,884
Speaker 1: the truth, depending which kind of goes to point number two,

461
00:24:16,284 --> 00:24:19,484
Speaker 1: which is why it's so incredibly difficult to spot deception

462
00:24:19,644 --> 00:24:22,564
Speaker 1: in real life. Why, by the way, LIGHTE detector tests

463
00:24:22,564 --> 00:24:27,284
Speaker 1: are absolute bullshit, all of them. There's no good CIA FBI,

464
00:24:27,404 --> 00:24:30,524
Speaker 1: Like nobody has a good and actually accurate LE detector

465
00:24:30,604 --> 00:24:34,684
Speaker 1: because well, first of all, you can fake them. But secondly,

466
00:24:35,084 --> 00:24:38,964
Speaker 1: like you can tell if someone's stressed or nervous, right,

467
00:24:39,204 --> 00:24:42,004
Speaker 1: or if there's you know, something going on, if there's

468
00:24:42,044 --> 00:24:47,684
Speaker 1: cognitive load, but you have no access to why, right,

469
00:24:48,004 --> 00:24:51,684
Speaker 1: What is the why behind that? Am I stressed because

470
00:24:51,724 --> 00:24:55,164
Speaker 1: I'm lying? Or am I stressed because I'm telling the

471
00:24:55,244 --> 00:24:59,284
Speaker 1: truth and I'm afraid that you're not going to believe me? Right?

472
00:24:59,804 --> 00:25:03,564
Speaker 1: Or am I stressed because like I haven't gotten enough

473
00:25:03,644 --> 00:25:05,084
Speaker 1: sleep and this is a really.

474
00:25:04,884 --> 00:25:10,044
Speaker 2: Stressful situation if I am angry? Yeah? Or what were you? Exactly? Yeah?

475
00:25:10,364 --> 00:25:10,844
Speaker 1: Exactly?

476
00:25:10,964 --> 00:25:13,764
Speaker 2: Like I was like, so you're something, you bet you'll

477
00:25:13,764 --> 00:25:15,484
Speaker 2: put out whatever I'm betting seventy bucks, I put up

478
00:25:15,764 --> 00:25:17,604
Speaker 2: seven ten dollars chips or a fifty dollars chip, But

479
00:25:17,644 --> 00:25:20,724
Speaker 2: like if I'm like hungry and I have eaten, then

480
00:25:20,764 --> 00:25:24,164
Speaker 2: you can get like shaky hands, you like absolutely seventy bucks,

481
00:25:24,204 --> 00:25:26,644
Speaker 2: right y, because you don't want to like although honestly,

482
00:25:27,324 --> 00:25:29,764
Speaker 2: you know you can have reverse tels. Maybe you're a

483
00:25:29,804 --> 00:25:32,124
Speaker 2: little hungry and you know, and you like so you

484
00:25:32,244 --> 00:25:34,044
Speaker 2: kind of have some tremble. I mean they're like, I

485
00:25:34,084 --> 00:25:36,764
Speaker 2: do I do things. I don't have a little stitching

486
00:25:36,884 --> 00:25:38,484
Speaker 2: as a person. I'll do I do a little things

487
00:25:38,524 --> 00:25:40,204
Speaker 2: to mix it up. You know, I'm trying to be

488
00:25:40,284 --> 00:25:42,924
Speaker 2: unreadable and like because I'm like not like inherently a

489
00:25:43,004 --> 00:25:45,804
Speaker 2: very like still person, then maybe I tried to vary

490
00:25:45,804 --> 00:25:46,364
Speaker 2: things a little bit.

491
00:25:46,484 --> 00:25:48,924
Speaker 1: Yeah, so that's so yeah. Number two like you really

492
00:25:48,924 --> 00:25:52,324
Speaker 1: don't know. Number three is something that you alluded to,

493
00:25:52,444 --> 00:25:54,884
Speaker 1: which is I think really really important when you're trying

494
00:25:54,924 --> 00:25:57,924
Speaker 1: to figure out, you know, how do I read this person,

495
00:25:58,604 --> 00:26:01,084
Speaker 1: whether it's at the poker table or not. And that's

496
00:26:01,884 --> 00:26:04,604
Speaker 1: you need a baseline of behavior to be able to

497
00:26:04,644 --> 00:26:07,844
Speaker 1: compare it to right. You need to know what this

498
00:26:07,924 --> 00:26:13,724
Speaker 1: person normally behaves like, which requires a ton of data

499
00:26:13,844 --> 00:26:16,644
Speaker 1: that frankly, you often don't have, right, which is why

500
00:26:16,724 --> 00:26:19,004
Speaker 1: I caution people a lot of the time not to

501
00:26:19,644 --> 00:26:22,764
Speaker 1: put too much stock in tells, whether it's at the

502
00:26:22,804 --> 00:26:25,764
Speaker 1: poker table or in a conversation where like, oh, I

503
00:26:25,764 --> 00:26:28,764
Speaker 1: think that guy's lying to me, right, do you know, like,

504
00:26:29,364 --> 00:26:32,724
Speaker 1: do you have a good baseline? Have you observed this

505
00:26:32,804 --> 00:26:38,084
Speaker 1: person in enough situations, in enough interactions where you know

506
00:26:38,124 --> 00:26:41,364
Speaker 1: what normal looks like so that you can tell what

507
00:26:41,484 --> 00:26:46,364
Speaker 1: deviation from normal looks like, and then do you have

508
00:26:46,604 --> 00:26:49,484
Speaker 1: feedback to know what that deviation means. So there's so

509
00:26:49,644 --> 00:26:53,964
Speaker 1: many steps that need to actually happen for you to

510
00:26:54,004 --> 00:26:56,404
Speaker 1: be able to make an actual read, which is why

511
00:26:56,444 --> 00:27:00,044
Speaker 1: when you see these meta analyzes and psychology of nonverbal

512
00:27:00,044 --> 00:27:03,284
Speaker 1: behavior usually you find that, you know, it's kind of

513
00:27:03,324 --> 00:27:06,844
Speaker 1: fifty to fifty right, that it's almost no better than chance.

514
00:27:07,164 --> 00:27:10,004
Speaker 1: And even if people can get better than chance, they

515
00:27:10,004 --> 00:27:13,484
Speaker 1: improve from like fifty percent to fifty four percent, right,

516
00:27:13,604 --> 00:27:18,004
Speaker 1: which sure four percents a lot, but it's still like

517
00:27:18,444 --> 00:27:21,084
Speaker 1: still incredibly noisy if you're trying.

518
00:27:20,844 --> 00:27:23,124
Speaker 2: To know and also with a strategy, if you ignore

519
00:27:23,124 --> 00:27:25,724
Speaker 2: the bluffs or the tells for a second, right in

520
00:27:25,764 --> 00:27:28,164
Speaker 2: strategy in poker, I mean we all have some sense

521
00:27:28,204 --> 00:27:32,204
Speaker 2: for like empirically how the population plays. You're talking about

522
00:27:32,244 --> 00:27:35,964
Speaker 2: this before backstage, like, oh, this spot is underbluffed by

523
00:27:36,004 --> 00:27:40,044
Speaker 2: the player population overall. Therefore, if I buffed this spot,

524
00:27:40,244 --> 00:27:43,404
Speaker 2: people will fold a lot. But it feels like in

525
00:27:43,484 --> 00:27:47,604
Speaker 2: poker that can shift and adjust in different player populations,

526
00:27:47,644 --> 00:27:50,324
Speaker 2: and like, you know, look, one thing about having like

527
00:27:50,324 --> 00:27:53,724
Speaker 2: a capitalist, free market economy is like the market finds

528
00:27:53,724 --> 00:27:56,804
Speaker 2: a way. The market finds a way to exploit any loopholes,

529
00:27:56,844 --> 00:27:59,924
Speaker 2: to exploit any inefficiencies for better or worse. And the

530
00:27:59,924 --> 00:28:02,444
Speaker 2: same is true in poker that like, you know, look

531
00:28:02,524 --> 00:28:04,924
Speaker 2: right now, I'm probably you know, as a default, I'm

532
00:28:04,924 --> 00:28:07,684
Speaker 2: probably folding in a lot of spots because people probably

533
00:28:07,724 --> 00:28:10,244
Speaker 2: under bluff on average, right, unless there's like some type

534
00:28:10,244 --> 00:28:12,924
Speaker 2: of physical read or other read. Right, But if you

535
00:28:12,924 --> 00:28:14,524
Speaker 2: know that about me, then you can exploit the hell

536
00:28:14,524 --> 00:28:16,564
Speaker 2: out of me, you know, And so you have to

537
00:28:16,564 --> 00:28:17,764
Speaker 2: be constantly on your toes.

538
00:28:18,084 --> 00:28:21,444
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's really interesting. One of the kind of first

539
00:28:21,484 --> 00:28:27,444
Speaker 1: things that I learned from Eric is that he would

540
00:28:27,524 --> 00:28:29,964
Speaker 1: never give me an answer to like how do I

541
00:28:30,004 --> 00:28:33,524
Speaker 1: play this hand in this situation, because he said, you know,

542
00:28:33,884 --> 00:28:36,684
Speaker 1: I can't tell you that because I'm not you. Right,

543
00:28:36,684 --> 00:28:41,164
Speaker 1: when people see me, they expect something, and when they

544
00:28:41,204 --> 00:28:45,164
Speaker 1: see you, they expect something else because you know, people

545
00:28:45,204 --> 00:28:48,644
Speaker 1: have biases, people have preconceptions about how different people play,

546
00:28:49,124 --> 00:28:52,124
Speaker 1: and you can probably get away with things that I

547
00:28:52,164 --> 00:28:54,404
Speaker 1: can't get away with. He's like, you know, if you

548
00:28:54,644 --> 00:28:59,084
Speaker 1: raise here, that looks so strong coming from you, right,

549
00:28:59,524 --> 00:29:02,884
Speaker 1: And the implication is, you know I'm female. I am

550
00:29:03,324 --> 00:29:09,204
Speaker 1: not you know, a world class ten bracelet whenever you know,

551
00:29:09,444 --> 00:29:12,284
Speaker 1: I'm a very different sort of player. And so when

552
00:29:12,404 --> 00:29:16,324
Speaker 1: I do something that, when I run a suicide bluff,

553
00:29:16,684 --> 00:29:20,444
Speaker 1: I get a fold. When somebody comes in, you know,

554
00:29:20,564 --> 00:29:25,804
Speaker 1: with sleeve tattoos and you know, a shaved head and

555
00:29:26,164 --> 00:29:30,244
Speaker 1: huge biceps and tries the exact same bluff, they're probably

556
00:29:30,244 --> 00:29:31,164
Speaker 1: going to get a call.

557
00:29:31,564 --> 00:29:33,924
Speaker 2: Right, some of those huge bicep guys know exactly what

558
00:29:33,924 --> 00:29:37,164
Speaker 2: they're doing and they're putting their their false exactly. And

559
00:29:37,164 --> 00:29:39,164
Speaker 2: if you have some and being aware of life is

560
00:29:39,204 --> 00:29:42,724
Speaker 2: complicated and like I can get different. I mean you've

561
00:29:42,724 --> 00:29:45,684
Speaker 2: talked about written about because bluff. How like some men

562
00:29:46,684 --> 00:29:49,044
Speaker 2: want to beat the hell out of yeah women at

563
00:29:49,084 --> 00:29:51,484
Speaker 2: the table. Some want to be chivl risks and deferential. Right.

564
00:29:51,804 --> 00:29:53,484
Speaker 2: My version of that is, like I can have a

565
00:29:53,524 --> 00:29:56,044
Speaker 2: couple different stereotypes, like one is like, Okay, here is

566
00:29:56,084 --> 00:29:59,804
Speaker 2: a statistics nerd. He must be very tight and very straightforward.

567
00:30:00,164 --> 00:30:02,284
Speaker 2: The other is like, here's a guy who probably has

568
00:30:02,884 --> 00:30:04,364
Speaker 2: what do you say amount of money he's in this

569
00:30:04,444 --> 00:30:06,244
Speaker 2: is a hobby. He probably doesn't have some fun he

570
00:30:06,284 --> 00:30:09,324
Speaker 2: can afford the buyings he's splashing around, right, So, like people,

571
00:30:09,404 --> 00:30:11,284
Speaker 2: I can get bifcaate between like being seen as like

572
00:30:11,604 --> 00:30:14,044
Speaker 2: overly tight and overly loose and being very aware of

573
00:30:14,164 --> 00:30:17,244
Speaker 2: like your kind of microscopic like table image and things

574
00:30:17,284 --> 00:30:20,324
Speaker 2: like that, or like even what hat I wear, right, hat,

575
00:30:20,324 --> 00:30:23,244
Speaker 2: it's like wolf hat I sometimes wear that my partner hates, right,

576
00:30:23,284 --> 00:30:25,804
Speaker 2: but like that create some more aggressive image. You have

577
00:30:25,844 --> 00:30:28,364
Speaker 2: a Vegas Knight's hat that I sometimes wear, which is

578
00:30:28,364 --> 00:30:29,844
Speaker 2: like if you're playing in Vegas, it's like an old

579
00:30:29,844 --> 00:30:32,004
Speaker 2: man coffee local playing the game.

580
00:30:32,164 --> 00:30:32,364
Speaker 3: Right.

581
00:30:32,444 --> 00:30:34,884
Speaker 2: So like, even like wardrobe and things like that can

582
00:30:34,924 --> 00:30:36,444
Speaker 2: affect these perceptions.

583
00:30:36,764 --> 00:30:41,164
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely absolutely, And I think we make judgments about

584
00:30:41,164 --> 00:30:44,404
Speaker 1: people all the time that are based on zero data.

585
00:30:44,924 --> 00:30:49,164
Speaker 1: And that's another reason why you know, spotting deception. Being

586
00:30:49,164 --> 00:30:52,484
Speaker 1: able to read people is so incredibly difficult because our

587
00:30:52,604 --> 00:30:56,804
Speaker 1: own baseline is incredibly biased. Right when you see anyone,

588
00:30:56,884 --> 00:30:59,484
Speaker 1: whether you know it or not, you are just constantly

589
00:30:59,524 --> 00:31:03,364
Speaker 1: like making judgments, judgments, judgments, judgments, and before they even

590
00:31:03,404 --> 00:31:05,604
Speaker 1: do anything. In poker, you do it before they play

591
00:31:05,644 --> 00:31:08,244
Speaker 1: a single hand. In real life, you do it before

592
00:31:08,284 --> 00:31:12,364
Speaker 1: you have a single conversation. Do you ever meet someone

593
00:31:12,364 --> 00:31:14,964
Speaker 1: and you're like, I don't like this person. You haven't

594
00:31:14,964 --> 00:31:16,244
Speaker 1: talked to them, and you're like, oh my god, this

595
00:31:16,284 --> 00:31:19,524
Speaker 1: person's just rubbing me the wrong way, right, And like

596
00:31:19,604 --> 00:31:21,844
Speaker 1: they might be perfectly nice and they haven't done anything,

597
00:31:21,884 --> 00:31:25,004
Speaker 1: and you might even end up liking them later, but like, yeah,

598
00:31:25,044 --> 00:31:27,244
Speaker 1: often you do, but like that initial reaction, like I

599
00:31:27,244 --> 00:31:31,164
Speaker 1: definitely have that like ooof yeah, And then and then

600
00:31:31,204 --> 00:31:33,324
Speaker 1: you have the opposite where like you're like, oh my god,

601
00:31:33,324 --> 00:31:35,284
Speaker 1: I love you. We're going to be best friends, right,

602
00:31:35,564 --> 00:31:37,084
Speaker 1: and then like by the end of the night, you're like,

603
00:31:37,204 --> 00:31:40,884
Speaker 1: go away please, Right, you are the most annoying human

604
00:31:40,924 --> 00:31:45,244
Speaker 1: I've ever met. But it goes in both ways. Both

605
00:31:45,324 --> 00:31:49,204
Speaker 1: times you make these subconscious judgments based on cues that

606
00:31:49,244 --> 00:31:53,524
Speaker 1: you probably don't even realize you're using. And it's because

607
00:31:54,284 --> 00:31:58,324
Speaker 1: we have years and years and years of experiences that

608
00:31:58,364 --> 00:32:00,284
Speaker 1: we're drawing on, right that make us who we are,

609
00:32:00,644 --> 00:32:04,364
Speaker 1: that are our own biases, our own perspectives, and that's why,

610
00:32:04,564 --> 00:32:08,044
Speaker 1: you know, reading people is hard in life and at

611
00:32:08,084 --> 00:32:11,604
Speaker 1: the poker table, and we're bad at it unless we

612
00:32:11,724 --> 00:32:15,444
Speaker 1: really really try to be empirically and data driven, which

613
00:32:15,484 --> 00:32:16,524
Speaker 1: again is difficult.

614
00:32:21,764 --> 00:32:36,484
Speaker 4: And we'll be right back after this break, so.

615
00:32:36,564 --> 00:32:40,524
Speaker 1: We'll see how well Nate controls some of his tells.

616
00:32:40,604 --> 00:32:44,364
Speaker 1: We are going to play a game called Lowden Thinks.

617
00:32:45,444 --> 00:32:51,524
Speaker 1: So what this game is is I, well, one person

618
00:32:51,604 --> 00:32:54,124
Speaker 1: it's going to be me this time, is going to

619
00:32:54,524 --> 00:32:57,764
Speaker 1: ask the Lawden who's going to be Nate, a question

620
00:32:58,004 --> 00:33:01,364
Speaker 1: which has a numerical answer. For instance, I could ask

621
00:33:01,444 --> 00:33:07,244
Speaker 1: him how many subway stops are there in New York City. Okay, Now,

622
00:33:07,364 --> 00:33:12,644
Speaker 1: the actual answers to this doesn't matter whatsoever. All that

623
00:33:12,724 --> 00:33:16,004
Speaker 1: matters is what Nate thinks it is. So Nate is

624
00:33:16,004 --> 00:33:18,804
Speaker 1: going to write his answer down. Don't write your answer

625
00:33:18,804 --> 00:33:22,404
Speaker 1: to this one, but for you have an estimate. Okay.

626
00:33:22,444 --> 00:33:26,084
Speaker 1: So Nate has an estimate. So he's going to write

627
00:33:26,124 --> 00:33:28,084
Speaker 1: it down so that we know that it's locked in

628
00:33:28,164 --> 00:33:31,084
Speaker 1: and that he's not lying, right. And then I'm going

629
00:33:31,124 --> 00:33:33,684
Speaker 1: to ask two people from the audience to come up,

630
00:33:34,044 --> 00:33:38,084
Speaker 1: and they are going to start kind of a bidding

631
00:33:38,084 --> 00:33:42,244
Speaker 1: war to try to figure out Nate's answers. So, for instance,

632
00:33:42,524 --> 00:33:45,124
Speaker 1: let's say it's the two of you ladies who are

633
00:33:45,164 --> 00:33:50,524
Speaker 1: coming up, and so you could say, you could say ten, right,

634
00:33:50,684 --> 00:33:54,844
Speaker 1: Nate thinks it's ten, and you would say ten's too low, right,

635
00:33:54,924 --> 00:33:57,564
Speaker 1: So you pick a number that's you are allowed to

636
00:33:57,604 --> 00:34:00,524
Speaker 1: say either under if you think it's under ten, or

637
00:34:00,564 --> 00:34:02,884
Speaker 1: pick another number. So you might be like ten, that's crazy,

638
00:34:03,204 --> 00:34:06,164
Speaker 1: fifty and you might be like, oh, fifty, that's crazy,

639
00:34:06,204 --> 00:34:10,004
Speaker 1: that's too high. Under. Basically, you keep going until one

640
00:34:10,044 --> 00:34:13,884
Speaker 1: person says under, and whoever gets closest to not the

641
00:34:13,924 --> 00:34:18,364
Speaker 1: real answer, but what Nate thinks the answer is is

642
00:34:18,404 --> 00:34:22,124
Speaker 1: the person who wins. So you know, let's say that

643
00:34:22,204 --> 00:34:26,324
Speaker 1: you had said two hundred and you had said under. Okay,

644
00:34:26,404 --> 00:34:31,004
Speaker 1: and Nate, what was your answer? All right?

645
00:34:31,084 --> 00:34:33,684
Speaker 2: So you I think that's it doesn't matter.

646
00:34:33,964 --> 00:34:39,044
Speaker 1: Doesn't that's the point, right, it doesn't matter, So you

647
00:34:39,044 --> 00:34:41,484
Speaker 1: would have won because you said two hundred and you

648
00:34:41,524 --> 00:34:44,524
Speaker 1: had the under on two hundred. We don't care about

649
00:34:44,524 --> 00:34:49,844
Speaker 1: the actual answer, So your goal is not to immediately

650
00:34:49,924 --> 00:34:53,404
Speaker 1: start thinking about what is the answer to this. Your

651
00:34:53,484 --> 00:34:58,124
Speaker 1: goal is to think what does Nate think the answer is.

652
00:34:58,844 --> 00:35:01,644
Speaker 1: So you have to do everything we've talked about tonight.

653
00:35:01,684 --> 00:35:04,084
Speaker 1: You have to look at the world from Nate's perspective,

654
00:35:04,484 --> 00:35:06,844
Speaker 1: and you have to observe him, you know, observe his

655
00:35:07,004 --> 00:35:09,804
Speaker 1: tells because you know, if you had said, like hundred,

656
00:35:09,844 --> 00:35:11,684
Speaker 1: he'd probably give you a look like you're crazy. Or

657
00:35:11,724 --> 00:35:14,924
Speaker 1: maybe he's going to uh, you know, maybe he's going

658
00:35:15,004 --> 00:35:18,364
Speaker 1: to protect him his uh, his poker face. Yeah, his

659
00:35:18,524 --> 00:35:21,004
Speaker 1: range a little bit better than that. All right, So

660
00:35:21,644 --> 00:35:25,684
Speaker 1: can we have two volunteers from the audience to guess

661
00:35:26,124 --> 00:35:30,764
Speaker 1: our first a lotten question? We've got one hand back there, Yeah,

662
00:35:30,924 --> 00:35:35,684
Speaker 1: come on up, Yeah, you back there, and we need

663
00:35:35,684 --> 00:35:44,724
Speaker 1: a second. All right, up, you come all right. So

664
00:35:44,804 --> 00:35:50,484
Speaker 1: here's my question. How many podcasts are there in the

665
00:35:50,524 --> 00:35:51,684
Speaker 1: world right now?

666
00:35:52,604 --> 00:35:59,204
Speaker 2: Can I ask for clarifying questions or no? How many podcasts?

667
00:35:59,244 --> 00:36:03,724
Speaker 1: How many podcasts in the world? So Nate, let me

668
00:36:03,764 --> 00:36:06,964
Speaker 1: know when you've written down your answer and make sure, Okay,

669
00:36:07,084 --> 00:36:10,124
Speaker 1: I got it, you're locked in. All right? What's your name?

670
00:36:10,604 --> 00:36:15,164
Speaker 1: My name is Rob, and what's your name Roger? All right, Rob,

671
00:36:15,324 --> 00:36:18,004
Speaker 1: We're gonna start off the game with you, Rob. Why

672
00:36:18,044 --> 00:36:19,724
Speaker 1: don't you throw out a number? All right?

673
00:36:20,204 --> 00:36:27,084
Speaker 3: Big m I'll say ten.

674
00:36:26,924 --> 00:36:29,724
Speaker 1: Thousand, all right, Roger, are you gonna go over? Are

675
00:36:29,764 --> 00:36:31,884
Speaker 1: you gonna take the under? Over?

676
00:36:32,244 --> 00:36:32,604
Speaker 2: All right?

677
00:36:32,684 --> 00:36:33,524
Speaker 1: So what's your number?

678
00:36:34,404 --> 00:36:36,124
Speaker 2: Twenty five? All right?

679
00:36:36,204 --> 00:36:40,284
Speaker 1: Twenty five thousand, Rob, it's back to you, hess twenty five.

680
00:36:41,644 --> 00:36:43,604
Speaker 2: I will I will match that.

681
00:36:44,164 --> 00:36:48,964
Speaker 1: No, you can't match that. We're not sorry. You have to.

682
00:36:49,084 --> 00:36:51,164
Speaker 1: You have to either take a number that's higher or

683
00:36:51,204 --> 00:37:01,244
Speaker 1: say under. I'm gonna say thirty k. Okay, And remember, guys,

684
00:37:01,244 --> 00:37:02,724
Speaker 1: you need to be looking at Nate, not at me.

685
00:37:02,924 --> 00:37:07,804
Speaker 1: All right, So thirty k Roger? Are you? What are you?

686
00:37:07,884 --> 00:37:11,644
Speaker 1: What are you gonna do? Do you like thirty? Are

687
00:37:11,684 --> 00:37:16,124
Speaker 1: you under? Are you over? Oh? Look at Nate. He's

688
00:37:17,044 --> 00:37:21,204
Speaker 1: Nate's losing it over here, melting under pressure, a swearty guy.

689
00:37:21,244 --> 00:37:22,484
Speaker 2: I have a better poker face, And.

690
00:37:27,244 --> 00:37:31,484
Speaker 1: Alright, thirty five thousand, Rob, back to you. I'll go

691
00:37:31,604 --> 00:37:34,604
Speaker 1: under it, all right, Nate? What's your number?

692
00:37:36,404 --> 00:37:40,884
Speaker 2: Three point six million? At right?

693
00:37:41,444 --> 00:37:45,604
Speaker 1: All right, Roger, you win because you're closer, but you

694
00:37:45,644 --> 00:37:48,964
Speaker 1: are everyone is off by well, the two of you

695
00:37:49,004 --> 00:37:51,444
Speaker 1: are off by an order of magnitude from Nate's real guest.

696
00:37:51,284 --> 00:37:52,324
Speaker 2: Do we know the real number?

697
00:37:52,524 --> 00:37:54,644
Speaker 1: We do have the real number. I happen to look

698
00:37:54,684 --> 00:37:58,044
Speaker 1: it up because I wanted to know. Four point five million?

699
00:37:58,244 --> 00:38:01,764
Speaker 2: Holy shit, pretty good might be an assasination thing.

700
00:38:01,844 --> 00:38:09,404
Speaker 1: Guys, does everyone here have a podcast? Because it seems like, uh,

701
00:38:09,444 --> 00:38:11,364
Speaker 1: all right, we're gonna do We're gonna do. Do you

702
00:38:11,404 --> 00:38:12,404
Speaker 1: guys want one more shot?

703
00:38:13,404 --> 00:38:14,444
Speaker 2: Can idem myself?

704
00:38:14,564 --> 00:38:17,444
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, we're gonna do a re We're gonna do

705
00:38:17,484 --> 00:38:23,524
Speaker 1: a rematch because yeah, Rob wants a shot at redemption.

706
00:38:23,924 --> 00:38:28,244
Speaker 1: All right, let's take a shot. All right, So so

707
00:38:28,324 --> 00:38:32,604
Speaker 1: this one we'll do, uh, we'll do slightly non podcasting.

708
00:38:33,124 --> 00:38:39,444
Speaker 1: We'll pay uh respects to our venue. How many live

709
00:38:39,444 --> 00:38:42,564
Speaker 1: events does ludlow House host in a year.

710
00:38:44,484 --> 00:38:45,324
Speaker 2: Of any kind?

711
00:38:45,684 --> 00:38:54,324
Speaker 1: Many? Kind? No more clarifying questions leading the witness. You

712
00:38:54,364 --> 00:38:55,084
Speaker 1: got your number.

713
00:38:56,204 --> 00:38:59,004
Speaker 2: I'm like, I'm like doing some deceptive shit, right, I

714
00:38:59,124 --> 00:39:01,204
Speaker 2: want people like you know, having reach side down. So

715
00:39:01,244 --> 00:39:02,044
Speaker 2: I'm trying to mix up.

716
00:39:02,524 --> 00:39:05,124
Speaker 1: All right, we've got some We've got some deceptive tells.

717
00:39:05,524 --> 00:39:08,844
Speaker 1: All right, Rob, this one you start us off seven

718
00:39:09,004 --> 00:39:14,324
Speaker 1: and fifty All right, Roger under you're taking the under.

719
00:39:14,364 --> 00:39:16,604
Speaker 1: Oh well that was a short round of laden.

720
00:39:18,164 --> 00:39:23,924
Speaker 2: Five fifty five. But what's the answer. This doesn't matter.

721
00:39:24,364 --> 00:39:26,564
Speaker 1: The answer doesn't matter. This is what. I don't have

722
00:39:26,604 --> 00:39:30,684
Speaker 1: the answer too because it is not public. But as

723
00:39:30,724 --> 00:39:34,044
Speaker 1: far as I can tell, ludlow House does five to

724
00:39:34,204 --> 00:39:38,284
Speaker 1: six live events a week, so multiply that by okay,

725
00:39:38,564 --> 00:39:41,004
Speaker 1: maybe a little high, yeah, by fifty weeks.

726
00:39:41,204 --> 00:39:43,644
Speaker 2: My justification was that as I was reading him, I

727
00:39:43,684 --> 00:39:45,964
Speaker 2: was like, I feel like he usually would aim high.

728
00:39:46,004 --> 00:39:48,324
Speaker 2: He did that with the how many podcasts were out

729
00:39:48,404 --> 00:39:49,564
Speaker 2: in the whole world.

730
00:39:49,764 --> 00:39:54,564
Speaker 1: I like this, you're extrapolating, You're using available information, you

731
00:39:54,604 --> 00:39:57,484
Speaker 1: know what. I'm giving you an extra point for using

732
00:39:57,564 --> 00:40:00,924
Speaker 1: data in a good way. And so oh I'm getting

733
00:40:00,924 --> 00:40:03,764
Speaker 1: I'm getting booed. Apparently the audio the audience does not

734
00:40:03,964 --> 00:40:09,004
Speaker 1: like that. So Roger, congratulations, An I don't mean that

735
00:40:09,764 --> 00:40:13,844
Speaker 1: you are our London. Thanks champion, Thank you both so much.

736
00:40:13,924 --> 00:40:15,044
Speaker 1: Thank you for volunteering.

737
00:40:16,604 --> 00:40:17,004
Speaker 3: Thank you.

738
00:40:19,764 --> 00:40:22,884
Speaker 1: All right, we have time for a few questions. Yeah,

739
00:40:23,844 --> 00:40:25,324
Speaker 1: I just want to.

740
00:40:25,324 --> 00:40:27,924
Speaker 3: Say, Maria, your book was the first book I read

741
00:40:27,964 --> 00:40:30,604
Speaker 3: when I started playing poker, and so really excited to

742
00:40:30,644 --> 00:40:30,964
Speaker 3: meet you.

743
00:40:32,164 --> 00:40:34,324
Speaker 1: Thank you. I'm curious for you, guys.

744
00:40:34,604 --> 00:40:36,524
Speaker 3: This is both a poker question while so out of

745
00:40:36,684 --> 00:40:39,164
Speaker 3: outside of poker, what do you think is the difference

746
00:40:39,204 --> 00:40:41,964
Speaker 3: between bias because you guys were talking about bias when

747
00:40:41,964 --> 00:40:44,444
Speaker 3: you're playing, and like the reputation reading the reputation of

748
00:40:44,484 --> 00:40:48,884
Speaker 3: someone at the table versus intuition, And do you feel

749
00:40:48,884 --> 00:40:51,724
Speaker 3: like intuition comes into play for you, like having cards,

750
00:40:51,724 --> 00:40:54,484
Speaker 3: sunds like, et cetera, or there's a big differentiation.

751
00:40:55,084 --> 00:40:59,924
Speaker 1: That's that's a really great question. And I am someone

752
00:41:00,324 --> 00:41:03,924
Speaker 1: who people get mad at because I'm like, do not

753
00:41:04,124 --> 00:41:08,204
Speaker 1: follow your gut feeling. It's bullshit. So here's here's my rationale.

754
00:41:08,204 --> 00:41:13,044
Speaker 1: It's not always true. So humans have very strong gut feelings, right,

755
00:41:13,284 --> 00:41:17,964
Speaker 1: really strong intuitions, and our intuitions can be either true

756
00:41:18,084 --> 00:41:20,404
Speaker 1: or false. Right, they can be either correct or not.

757
00:41:21,444 --> 00:41:24,804
Speaker 1: When you study this and you actually kind of do

758
00:41:25,644 --> 00:41:29,204
Speaker 1: the psych experiments, it turns out that we are about

759
00:41:29,244 --> 00:41:33,044
Speaker 1: fifty to fifty at identifying correct from incorrect intuitions. So

760
00:41:33,204 --> 00:41:36,644
Speaker 1: we feel like they're equally valid either way. Right, We're

761
00:41:36,724 --> 00:41:39,164
Speaker 1: really really bad. Sometimes we think a correct one's wrong,

762
00:41:39,204 --> 00:41:42,764
Speaker 1: and sometimes we think a wrong one's correct at chance levels.

763
00:41:43,164 --> 00:41:48,004
Speaker 1: And so what I like to say is that the

764
00:41:48,124 --> 00:41:51,604
Speaker 1: data show that the intuitions that you can actually trust

765
00:41:52,164 --> 00:41:56,604
Speaker 1: are intuitions that aren't intuitions. They are deep expertise that

766
00:41:56,644 --> 00:42:00,484
Speaker 1: you don't necessarily have conscious access to how you know it.

767
00:42:00,964 --> 00:42:03,724
Speaker 1: So if you are an expert in this, right, if

768
00:42:03,764 --> 00:42:08,164
Speaker 1: you are someone who has you know, thousands and thousands

769
00:42:08,164 --> 00:42:11,484
Speaker 1: of hours of experience in this and like this is

770
00:42:11,524 --> 00:42:16,084
Speaker 1: really your area, then you might know something. Your brain

771
00:42:16,204 --> 00:42:19,044
Speaker 1: might be noticing patterns right there. I mean pattern recognition

772
00:42:19,084 --> 00:42:21,524
Speaker 1: going on that your conscious brain isn't aware of because

773
00:42:21,524 --> 00:42:24,124
Speaker 1: it's at a deeper level. So it feels like intuition

774
00:42:24,324 --> 00:42:27,284
Speaker 1: to you, but it's not. It's actually expertise that you've

775
00:42:27,284 --> 00:42:31,164
Speaker 1: worked really, really hard for. So the question you should

776
00:42:31,204 --> 00:42:35,884
Speaker 1: ask is is there a reason why I should know this? Right? Like?

777
00:42:36,004 --> 00:42:38,684
Speaker 1: Am I an expert in this field? Is this my domain?

778
00:42:39,124 --> 00:42:42,284
Speaker 1: Have I experienced this many many times before? And if

779
00:42:42,324 --> 00:42:45,284
Speaker 1: the answer is yes, then go for it, trust it.

780
00:42:45,324 --> 00:42:48,364
Speaker 1: If the answer is no, then rely on other things.

781
00:42:48,564 --> 00:42:50,444
Speaker 1: So what I would you know? Like in poker, I

782
00:42:50,484 --> 00:42:53,764
Speaker 1: would say, like if at the table, I think you know,

783
00:42:53,924 --> 00:42:56,364
Speaker 1: I think this person's bluffing, but I'm not sure why,

784
00:42:57,004 --> 00:42:59,924
Speaker 1: Versus if Eric's idell says, I think this person's bluffing,

785
00:42:59,964 --> 00:43:03,644
Speaker 1: but I'm not sure why. Trust Eric's intuition, don't trust mine.

786
00:43:03,884 --> 00:43:06,404
Speaker 1: Eric's been doing this shit since the eighties. Right, he's

787
00:43:06,604 --> 00:43:11,804
Speaker 1: a true expert. I'm not. And the funny thing is

788
00:43:12,564 --> 00:43:14,844
Speaker 1: when it comes to reading people, the theme of you

789
00:43:14,844 --> 00:43:19,844
Speaker 1: know this show, we all think we're experts because we

790
00:43:20,164 --> 00:43:22,644
Speaker 1: read people all the time, we make judgments all the time.

791
00:43:22,644 --> 00:43:24,404
Speaker 1: The problem is we don't know if we're right or not,

792
00:43:24,804 --> 00:43:28,084
Speaker 1: So it feels like expertise when it's not because you

793
00:43:28,084 --> 00:43:30,484
Speaker 1: don't get feedback. You're like, I think this person's lying, right,

794
00:43:30,524 --> 00:43:32,044
Speaker 1: I think this person's telling the truth. But you have

795
00:43:32,084 --> 00:43:34,924
Speaker 1: no idea, like you are constantly everyone thinks they're an

796
00:43:34,924 --> 00:43:38,284
Speaker 1: expert at reading people, but we don't, you know, unless

797
00:43:38,324 --> 00:43:40,884
Speaker 1: you're a poker player, or unless you're someone who constantly

798
00:43:40,924 --> 00:43:44,004
Speaker 1: gets feedback about whether your reads were correct or not,

799
00:43:44,324 --> 00:43:47,884
Speaker 1: you're a fake expert. Feels like expertise, but it's not.

800
00:43:47,964 --> 00:43:50,044
Speaker 2: In terms of kind of like capital be biased. I'm

801
00:43:50,084 --> 00:43:53,524
Speaker 2: like not trying to be overly woke or anything, but

802
00:43:53,604 --> 00:43:58,764
Speaker 2: like making assumptions based on like race or gender doesn't

803
00:43:58,804 --> 00:44:00,564
Speaker 2: work for a one poker because people can like actually

804
00:44:00,644 --> 00:44:05,724
Speaker 2: take advantage of your expectation of them and therefore exploit you. Right, Absolutely,

805
00:44:05,764 --> 00:44:10,044
Speaker 2: age tells you a little bit more amateur versus professional

806
00:44:10,164 --> 00:44:11,324
Speaker 2: tells you a little bit more.

807
00:44:11,404 --> 00:44:15,124
Speaker 1: Biggest bluffers I've ever encountered have been the like little

808
00:44:15,124 --> 00:44:18,844
Speaker 1: old men who you're like, oh, like he's so sweet,

809
00:44:18,884 --> 00:44:19,844
Speaker 1: he's not bluffing me.

810
00:44:19,964 --> 00:44:23,004
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's like in your face because like and it

811
00:44:23,124 --> 00:44:25,124
Speaker 2: probably you know, these kind of older guys will probably

812
00:44:25,204 --> 00:44:27,484
Speaker 2: hire coaches or watch videos like I can get away

813
00:44:27,524 --> 00:44:30,524
Speaker 2: with impunity with like bluffing a lot, and so yeah,

814
00:44:30,644 --> 00:44:34,164
Speaker 2: I you know, any data you have when someone has

815
00:44:34,204 --> 00:44:36,324
Speaker 2: someone actually played a hand, right, it can be like

816
00:44:36,364 --> 00:44:38,884
Speaker 2: an old guy who's eighty five years old who looks

817
00:44:38,924 --> 00:44:42,044
Speaker 2: like he's senile. Right, if you catch him making some

818
00:44:42,124 --> 00:44:45,324
Speaker 2: huge bluff in the first hand he plays and like

819
00:44:45,364 --> 00:44:49,204
Speaker 2: that totally outweighs any priors that you had about about

820
00:44:49,204 --> 00:44:49,964
Speaker 2: his style.

821
00:44:49,724 --> 00:44:55,204
Speaker 1: Of So always, when in doubt, use objective, observable data

822
00:44:55,764 --> 00:44:59,844
Speaker 1: and be very very skeptical of your gut unless you're

823
00:44:59,844 --> 00:45:00,764
Speaker 1: a true expert in it.

824
00:45:01,884 --> 00:45:04,004
Speaker 2: Hi, my name is Julian. Great to mean you guys.

825
00:45:04,764 --> 00:45:07,604
Speaker 5: My question is somewhat related, but it's essentially how do

826
00:45:07,604 --> 00:45:10,964
Speaker 5: you discern between making a re or observing a tell

827
00:45:11,044 --> 00:45:15,004
Speaker 5: that gives you an advantage versus falling for somebody trying

828
00:45:15,044 --> 00:45:16,764
Speaker 5: to deceive you with like a fake tell.

829
00:45:17,084 --> 00:45:21,404
Speaker 1: It's a good question, and there's no there's no clear

830
00:45:21,444 --> 00:45:24,884
Speaker 1: cut answer, But I would say two things. One, despite

831
00:45:24,884 --> 00:45:27,884
Speaker 1: what Nate says, I would urge you all not to

832
00:45:28,004 --> 00:45:33,604
Speaker 1: try to throw fake tales. It's a very very risky proposition.

833
00:45:34,244 --> 00:45:38,724
Speaker 1: And normally fake tales give away way more than you

834
00:45:38,724 --> 00:45:42,164
Speaker 1: you know, than you're trying to. And I think that

835
00:45:42,484 --> 00:45:46,004
Speaker 1: the most you can try to do is just standardize

836
00:45:46,044 --> 00:45:49,484
Speaker 1: your behavior as much as possible. That's the advice that

837
00:45:49,524 --> 00:45:53,324
Speaker 1: I got from kind of a behavioral expert who coaches

838
00:45:53,364 --> 00:45:57,964
Speaker 1: poker players, is try to have a routine and follow

839
00:45:58,044 --> 00:46:01,284
Speaker 1: that same routine, because otherwise you're going to give off information.

840
00:46:01,484 --> 00:46:03,804
Speaker 2: Now, it's true because like some tells can have the

841
00:46:03,844 --> 00:46:06,764
Speaker 2: reverse meaning based on very subtle distinctions. Right, Like you

842
00:46:06,844 --> 00:46:10,364
Speaker 2: bet someone takes a long time to make all on

843
00:46:10,404 --> 00:46:12,804
Speaker 2: the flop, right from like a truly novice player. We

844
00:46:12,844 --> 00:46:17,004
Speaker 2: both play like charity tournaments. Sometimes probably sincere they probably

845
00:46:17,204 --> 00:46:19,444
Speaker 2: are having trouble even reading the board telling how strong

846
00:46:19,484 --> 00:46:22,444
Speaker 2: their hand is. Right from like the next step upward,

847
00:46:23,084 --> 00:46:26,684
Speaker 2: then that might be deceiving you into betting again, right

848
00:46:27,804 --> 00:46:30,604
Speaker 2: and then beyond that, it's probably more random someone's liberately

849
00:46:30,684 --> 00:46:34,124
Speaker 2: randomizing or or whatever, but like knowing kind of what

850
00:46:34,244 --> 00:46:37,124
Speaker 2: level somebody is on and if they if they become

851
00:46:37,164 --> 00:46:41,124
Speaker 2: aware of something weird that occurs, right, you know, if

852
00:46:41,164 --> 00:46:43,164
Speaker 2: you become aware like so, like let's say that, like

853
00:46:44,404 --> 00:46:48,124
Speaker 2: you know, I have a hand where because it's I

854
00:46:48,124 --> 00:46:51,364
Speaker 2: haven't eaten in fifteen hours, right, my hand troubles a

855
00:46:51,364 --> 00:46:54,844
Speaker 2: little bit when I'm like making a bet. If I'm

856
00:46:54,884 --> 00:46:58,484
Speaker 2: aware of that, that will affect my play for the

857
00:46:58,484 --> 00:47:01,644
Speaker 2: rest of the hand. Like usually that's read as strength.

858
00:47:01,684 --> 00:47:03,964
Speaker 2: There are some players for which that's not true, right,

859
00:47:05,364 --> 00:47:07,484
Speaker 2: you know, sometimes stuck about reverse tells like can I

860
00:47:07,484 --> 00:47:10,404
Speaker 2: make myself kind of like fake tremble on command. I'm

861
00:47:10,444 --> 00:47:12,364
Speaker 2: not saying I've never tried that, you know what I mean.

862
00:47:13,604 --> 00:47:16,204
Speaker 2: But it's all very context driven, which is just like

863
00:47:16,324 --> 00:47:19,644
Speaker 2: human interaction. Right, The same statement can be ambiguous and

864
00:47:19,684 --> 00:47:22,004
Speaker 2: can mean five different things coming from five different people

865
00:47:22,484 --> 00:47:24,884
Speaker 2: or from the same person depending on the context who

866
00:47:24,884 --> 00:47:29,004
Speaker 2: they're speaking to. Very precise changes and wording and language

867
00:47:29,044 --> 00:47:31,204
Speaker 2: and things like that and facial expressions.

868
00:47:32,444 --> 00:47:35,884
Speaker 6: Hi, We've spoke at the beginning about what you're comfortable with,

869
00:47:36,004 --> 00:47:37,764
Speaker 6: and I'm curious to know if you worry about the

870
00:47:37,804 --> 00:47:41,764
Speaker 6: slippery slope and how to keep a healthy boundary between

871
00:47:42,364 --> 00:47:45,724
Speaker 6: the things that you would consider to be acceptable, like

872
00:47:45,844 --> 00:47:49,364
Speaker 6: the bluffing being strategy and white lies with the pleasantries

873
00:47:49,764 --> 00:47:53,084
Speaker 6: going on versus going on to that deep end where

874
00:47:53,844 --> 00:47:56,204
Speaker 6: you know where is the line between that and then

875
00:47:56,284 --> 00:47:58,524
Speaker 6: suddenly in your day to day carrying it over too

876
00:47:58,564 --> 00:48:01,044
Speaker 6: much and losing track of what is a good lie,

877
00:48:01,124 --> 00:48:03,364
Speaker 6: so to speak, versus a bad lie where the con

878
00:48:03,444 --> 00:48:04,004
Speaker 6: people are.

879
00:48:04,404 --> 00:48:07,924
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I just try not to lie, to

880
00:48:07,924 --> 00:48:11,484
Speaker 1: be perfectly honest. You know. My next book that I'm

881
00:48:11,484 --> 00:48:14,964
Speaker 1: working on right now is about cheating in games, and

882
00:48:15,244 --> 00:48:17,964
Speaker 1: you know, being around kind of that sort of deceptive

883
00:48:17,964 --> 00:48:25,644
Speaker 1: behavior just gives me such awareness of how costly it

884
00:48:25,724 --> 00:48:29,884
Speaker 1: is and of how costly it is for society that

885
00:48:30,244 --> 00:48:34,804
Speaker 1: I've become more truthful as I've delved into that research,

886
00:48:34,964 --> 00:48:38,604
Speaker 1: because I just want to like distinguish myself as much

887
00:48:38,644 --> 00:48:42,644
Speaker 1: as possible from the people that I'm researching, because you

888
00:48:42,804 --> 00:48:47,044
Speaker 1: see what the social cost is right of people taking cheating,

889
00:48:48,204 --> 00:48:51,484
Speaker 1: you know, taking taking the rules of the game and

890
00:48:51,484 --> 00:48:58,004
Speaker 1: breaking them and bending them and being unsportsmenlike in their behavior.

891
00:48:59,084 --> 00:49:03,324
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think that there's really no slippery slope,

892
00:49:03,444 --> 00:49:05,804
Speaker 1: like in the sense that if I'm playing a game

893
00:49:05,924 --> 00:49:08,884
Speaker 1: like poker, you know, all bluff, it's a game, and

894
00:49:08,924 --> 00:49:12,964
Speaker 1: then I'm done playing the game. And I have zero

895
00:49:13,004 --> 00:49:16,844
Speaker 1: tolerance for angle shooting, which is something that's technically not cheating,

896
00:49:16,924 --> 00:49:19,804
Speaker 1: but is bending the rules right, So it's doing something

897
00:49:19,844 --> 00:49:23,324
Speaker 1: that's like a little underhanded, right to the to the

898
00:49:23,444 --> 00:49:26,604
Speaker 1: edge of actually like being caught out for cheating. Like

899
00:49:26,644 --> 00:49:28,844
Speaker 1: I hate that there are some players who say that

900
00:49:28,844 --> 00:49:31,964
Speaker 1: it's acceptable strategy, right, if it's within the rules and

901
00:49:32,004 --> 00:49:34,084
Speaker 1: it helps me win, I'm going to do it, And

902
00:49:34,164 --> 00:49:37,924
Speaker 1: I think that's gross. So, like I I think it's

903
00:49:38,844 --> 00:49:41,924
Speaker 1: made me less tolerant of all borderline behaviors.

904
00:49:42,764 --> 00:49:45,924
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think ironically. I mean, like often the saddest

905
00:49:45,924 --> 00:49:47,604
Speaker 2: things you see at a poker table where there's someone

906
00:49:47,604 --> 00:49:51,044
Speaker 2: who just shouldn't be playing, often comes at the at

907
00:49:51,084 --> 00:49:52,924
Speaker 2: the lower stakes king. And it's also by the way,

908
00:49:52,964 --> 00:49:55,764
Speaker 2: we often experience the most like abusive behavior. Do you

909
00:49:55,804 --> 00:49:57,724
Speaker 2: speak up if are you a see something, say something?

910
00:49:57,804 --> 00:50:01,444
Speaker 1: Yeah, I always because I have been abused myself at

911
00:50:01,484 --> 00:50:04,644
Speaker 1: the poker table as a female. You know, I'm usually

912
00:50:05,124 --> 00:50:08,404
Speaker 1: a very easy target, and especially when I just started

913
00:50:08,404 --> 00:50:11,124
Speaker 1: out playing you know, and nobody knew who I was,

914
00:50:11,204 --> 00:50:13,924
Speaker 1: and I was playing kind of lower stakes at kind

915
00:50:13,924 --> 00:50:17,644
Speaker 1: of these really kind of low end casinos. Like I

916
00:50:17,684 --> 00:50:21,644
Speaker 1: experienced a lot of abuse, and as I've kind of

917
00:50:22,084 --> 00:50:26,604
Speaker 1: grown in the game and kind of made my way

918
00:50:26,604 --> 00:50:30,284
Speaker 1: in it so that I'm a recognizable face and I

919
00:50:30,324 --> 00:50:33,964
Speaker 1: feel more comfortable there, I want to make sure to

920
00:50:34,084 --> 00:50:37,204
Speaker 1: use my voice to protect people. So if there's bad

921
00:50:37,244 --> 00:50:41,484
Speaker 1: behavior against other players, against dealers, against floor staff, I

922
00:50:41,524 --> 00:50:45,204
Speaker 1: will absolutely say something and call it out there. There

923
00:50:45,204 --> 00:50:48,444
Speaker 1: are a few poker players who hate me because I've

924
00:50:48,724 --> 00:50:51,644
Speaker 1: like I've called the floor on them and have told

925
00:50:51,644 --> 00:50:53,604
Speaker 1: them that what they were doing was not funny.

926
00:50:53,844 --> 00:50:55,564
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's one thing you learned too, is like, because

927
00:50:55,644 --> 00:50:57,684
Speaker 2: people can be quiet and low key, right, but like,

928
00:50:57,764 --> 00:51:00,124
Speaker 2: I know lots of shit about people, I'm not saying

929
00:51:00,124 --> 00:51:02,484
Speaker 2: anything about, right, And the same is true and reverse,

930
00:51:02,564 --> 00:51:04,804
Speaker 2: especially if you are like kind of like a public

931
00:51:04,844 --> 00:51:08,724
Speaker 2: figure who's known both for poker and for non poker things.

932
00:51:08,764 --> 00:51:11,764
Speaker 2: But beware, the people are being very observant about what

933
00:51:11,804 --> 00:51:13,524
Speaker 2: you're doing too, and this s park people probably aren't

934
00:51:13,524 --> 00:51:17,204
Speaker 2: saying anything about it. There's some tactical advantage from remaining

935
00:51:17,524 --> 00:51:20,004
Speaker 2: quiet about it yep right.

936
00:51:20,284 --> 00:51:23,604
Speaker 1: Well, thank you all so much for joining this live

937
00:51:23,644 --> 00:51:27,084
Speaker 1: taping of Risky Business. It was an absolute pleasure of

938
00:51:27,164 --> 00:51:29,804
Speaker 1: having you all here. I hope that you feel more

939
00:51:30,004 --> 00:51:34,204
Speaker 1: comfortable about reading tells and especially about reading Nate Silver.

940
00:51:34,244 --> 00:51:37,324
Speaker 1: And when it comes to a lot of thanks, thank

941
00:51:37,364 --> 00:51:37,644
Speaker 1: you all.

942
00:51:37,924 --> 00:51:38,644
Speaker 2: Thank you so much.

943
00:51:47,484 --> 00:51:49,284
Speaker 1: Let us know what you think of the show. Reach

944
00:51:49,324 --> 00:51:53,724
Speaker 1: out to us at Risky Business at pushkin dot FM.

945
00:51:53,804 --> 00:51:56,884
Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kanakova.

946
00:51:56,524 --> 00:51:59,204
Speaker 2: And by me Nate Silver. The show was a whole

947
00:51:59,244 --> 00:52:03,204
Speaker 2: production of Pushing Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced

948
00:52:03,244 --> 00:52:07,564
Speaker 2: by Isaa Carter. Our associate producer is Sonya gerwit Lydia,

949
00:52:07,684 --> 00:52:10,404
Speaker 2: Jean Kott and Daphne Chen are our our editors, and

950
00:52:10,444 --> 00:52:14,444
Speaker 2: our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. Mixing by Sarah Bruger.

951
00:52:15,004 --> 00:52:17,204
Speaker 1: If you like the show, please rate and review us

952
00:52:17,244 --> 00:52:19,924
Speaker 1: so other people can find us too, But once again,

953
00:52:20,044 --> 00:52:21,884
Speaker 1: only if you like us. We don't want those bad

954
00:52:21,924 --> 00:52:24,084
Speaker 1: reviews out there. Thanks for tuning in.