WEBVTT - The Strategy, Economics and Devastation of War

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 1>global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>Just looking at our most read on the Bloomberg We

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<v Speaker 2>are doing a daily update, if you will, on the

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<v Speaker 2>Israel Hamas conflict.

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<v Speaker 3>That's always at the top of the most read it always.

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<v Speaker 2>Is, right and Israel's defense minister telling the US to

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<v Speaker 2>brace for a quote long war against Hamas. A Secretary

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<v Speaker 2>of State Anthony Blinken returned to Israel for further talks

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<v Speaker 2>amid a global push to prevent the conflict from spreading.

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<v Speaker 2>President Joe Biden is also considering a visit. So we

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<v Speaker 2>keep hearing all of this from our news team as well,

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<v Speaker 2>but that seems to be among the latest.

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<v Speaker 3>I think it's really notable what Mike Reagan said a

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<v Speaker 3>few moments ago about all of the diplomacy going on

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<v Speaker 3>behind the scenes, and you know, not just behind the scenes,

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<v Speaker 3>but in front of everyone right now with Lincoln back

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<v Speaker 3>there trying to prevent this from spreading into something bigger.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, so let's talk about that, because that's something

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<v Speaker 2>Tim and I have talked about a lot since this

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<v Speaker 2>conflict broke out with US, and so appreciative. Back with US.

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<v Speaker 2>Major General Maston Robinson Geopolitical Intelligence Robson excuse me, Geopolitical

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<v Speaker 2>Intelligence Advisor to the Academy Securities Advisory Board. He's on

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<v Speaker 2>Zoom from Greenville, South Carolina. The general served about thirty

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<v Speaker 2>four years on active duty in the US Marine Corps.

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<v Speaker 2>He served in more than sixty countries and that includes Liberia,

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<v Speaker 2>Desert Storm, Iraq, Afghanistan, and he did command at every

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<v Speaker 2>operational level in the Marine Corps. Major General, thank you

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<v Speaker 2>so much for being with us. How does what comes

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<v Speaker 2>next determine so much longer term here?

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<v Speaker 4>Thanks Carol, Tim, great to be with you. Without a doubt,

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<v Speaker 4>there's got to be an assault. Without a doubt, Israel

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<v Speaker 4>is going to go out to Moss with every antenna

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<v Speaker 4>of destroying them. That's not going to be easy because

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<v Speaker 4>although they have a pretty good intelligence space, what it's

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<v Speaker 4>in as where the tunnels are, where the buildings are,

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<v Speaker 4>Getting that thing without significantly later or damage is going

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<v Speaker 4>to be really brutal. I think what we're going to

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<v Speaker 4>see is they are trying right now their best to

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<v Speaker 4>set up their options, make sure that they have as

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<v Speaker 4>many partners and as much latitude as they can. But

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<v Speaker 4>the end of the day, this part would be how

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<v Speaker 4>much lows the home bown, how much Iran or hes

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<v Speaker 4>will to come in to help them.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, talk to us about what you believe is happening

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<v Speaker 3>behind the scenes right now from a diplomatic standpoint, because

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<v Speaker 3>it seems like the US is doing everything it can

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<v Speaker 3>to prevent this conflict from spiraling out of control.

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<v Speaker 4>I think the US is doing anything they can to

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<v Speaker 4>ensure I don't think US has any illusions the conflict

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<v Speaker 4>isn't going to happen, So what they're trying to do

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<v Speaker 4>is mitigate side effects. And whether it spins right or less,

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<v Speaker 4>how does this influence our opportunity or our relationship with Russia,

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<v Speaker 4>with Turkey, how Middle East relationship? Or does Saudi standard

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<v Speaker 4>disk Is Egypt willing to come on board with the

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<v Speaker 4>Abraham Cords and be supportive, or does the Brotherhood start

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<v Speaker 4>to influence to take a little more empathetic position towards

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<v Speaker 4>a monsk So there's certainly a lot of dynamics here

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<v Speaker 4>that we're trying to shore those up. Nobody knows what theis,

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<v Speaker 4>what Elebanon's will to do, what Ron's going to do,

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<v Speaker 4>what Egypt's going to do, But we do know what

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<v Speaker 4>Israel some do. So it's how do we shore up

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<v Speaker 4>the unknowns, how to create as stability as possible while

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<v Speaker 4>you still can general shooting starts. It's really hard to

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<v Speaker 4>negotiate the.

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<v Speaker 2>Thing though, I mean, does does Israel have a choice

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<v Speaker 2>to not attack?

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<v Speaker 5>Not?

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<v Speaker 4>Really?

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<v Speaker 5>No?

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<v Speaker 6>And why?

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<v Speaker 2>I mean I understand, I understand in terms of the

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<v Speaker 2>severity of what has happened, but why do they not?

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<v Speaker 2>For those who might be asking that question.

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<v Speaker 4>I think if you consider that AMOSC was established in

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<v Speaker 4>nineteen eighty seven and grew out of you know, that

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<v Speaker 4>last rebellion it was unsuccessful. They've been in control of

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<v Speaker 4>gods since two thousand and seven, whether that was by

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<v Speaker 4>Forrester or by democratic process, it arcroized and empowered them.

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<v Speaker 4>And the fact that they have taken fifty percent of

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<v Speaker 4>the ground force of their trained goddist and put them

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<v Speaker 4>into the fight. They've never shot through five hundred rocks

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<v Speaker 4>in a single day before, and without a doubt, planning

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<v Speaker 4>for this had to have had some outside influence. We

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<v Speaker 4>just can't confirm yet exactly who that was. If this

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<v Speaker 4>doesn't take a step here, Moss will see this as

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<v Speaker 4>a sign of weakness, and all it will do is

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<v Speaker 4>embolden them to do more. There's no way Hamas steps

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<v Speaker 4>back from this at this point.

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<v Speaker 3>Unfortunately, we've seen many civilians on the Israel Israeli side

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<v Speaker 3>as well as in Gaza killed already. Major General, how

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<v Speaker 3>does how do we prevent more deaths? How does Israel?

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<v Speaker 3>What does Israel need to do to prevent more deaths?

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<v Speaker 4>I guess we'll try to be as surgical as they

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<v Speaker 4>possibly can be, but it can be.

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<v Speaker 3>That's hard in Gaza, where it's, you know, one of

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<v Speaker 3>the most densely populated places in the world.

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<v Speaker 4>It is, it's particularly hard when you don't have bunker

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<v Speaker 4>busting bombs, which which you know they're hoping we're going

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<v Speaker 4>to give them. That's that's a deep dive down to

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<v Speaker 4>a whole lot of suments to be able to get

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<v Speaker 4>to it.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, when you said that Israel, excuse me, Hamas

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<v Speaker 2>had to have had some kind of outside assistance. Do

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<v Speaker 2>you not yet rule out that Iran had a role

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<v Speaker 2>in this, even though intelligence so far I believe even

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<v Speaker 2>heard that from the President. I think on sixty minutes

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<v Speaker 2>last night that so far that there's no signs that

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<v Speaker 2>Iran has had a hand in assisting Hamas. Do you

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<v Speaker 2>think the jury's still out on that?

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<v Speaker 4>Yes, enough, I think for diplomatic reasons, the President being

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<v Speaker 4>very wise not to make the accusations becamet proved. But

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<v Speaker 4>I think anybody sitting on the sidelines with any kind

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<v Speaker 4>of history in this absolutely sees Iron's fingerprints on this,

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<v Speaker 4>and that they are all over the money they've been

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<v Speaker 4>flowing into Hamas for the last five years, and you

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<v Speaker 4>consider nothing's really happened five to seven years, that really

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<v Speaker 4>is the time that Hamas longed Israel to sleep, thinking

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<v Speaker 4>maybe they are legitimately going to put more instance on

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<v Speaker 4>their political influence than on their rebellions and on their

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<v Speaker 4>desire to destroy Israel. Well, that proved to be untrue,

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<v Speaker 4>and it was as addition, Will fell into that's the

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<v Speaker 4>reason that they can't afford with this kind of build up. Jesus,

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<v Speaker 4>let it go.

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<v Speaker 3>What do you think when when the world does understand

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<v Speaker 3>forces that perhaps help Tomas, what should the reaction be

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<v Speaker 3>Because we've seen war prolonged war in the region before,

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<v Speaker 3>and it never ends.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, it will be divisive. I think that those who

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<v Speaker 4>believe that what Amasu did was unconsistable will side with Israel,

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<v Speaker 4>and those who believe that the state of the Palestinian

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<v Speaker 4>nation is it's also reprehensible what what they have suffered

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<v Speaker 4>through support them. So there'll be a division, without a doubt.

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<v Speaker 4>The question is where does Saudi land, Where's Egypt land?

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<v Speaker 4>Where does land? Where does Ue land? In that debate,

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<v Speaker 4>if they are willing to go wait a minute, this

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<v Speaker 4>is the Jie Hottest type movement. This is not the

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<v Speaker 4>Palestinian people. And we're going to in essence either stay

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<v Speaker 4>neutral or to give at least tastily support to the

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<v Speaker 4>Abraham Accords theory. Then I think that's a little different

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<v Speaker 4>set of circumstances. And if everybody unifies behind Hamas, I

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<v Speaker 4>don't really see Saudi in Egypt rallying behind Hamas in this.

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<v Speaker 4>Keep in mind Sally his parents. Saudi is as paranoid

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<v Speaker 4>and afraid of Iran as anybody else is. So the

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<v Speaker 4>last thing that I see them doing is creating some

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<v Speaker 4>kind of partnership with the Ran.

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<v Speaker 2>Long term, do you ultimately see a ceasefire at some

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<v Speaker 2>point in the near future. And I'm just curious if

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<v Speaker 2>you think about this in terms if you have a

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<v Speaker 2>specific time frame where you think Israel does what Israel

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<v Speaker 2>has to do, and then things calm down and then

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<v Speaker 2>people try to figure out the way forward.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 4>There. We generally think of decision cycles in this. Is

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<v Speaker 4>it effects based or time based. This is definitely an

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<v Speaker 4>effects based decision cycle where Israel will say I'm only

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<v Speaker 4>going to pause and I think that I've had the

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<v Speaker 4>initial effects that I want to have, You'll have to

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<v Speaker 4>do it time.

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<v Speaker 7>Well.

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<v Speaker 2>We always so appreciate your insight and your time. Once again,

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<v Speaker 2>so thank you so much for joining US. Major General

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<v Speaker 2>Maston Robison. Robinson excuse me, Geopolitical Intelligence advisor to the

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<v Speaker 2>Academy Securities Advisory Board, understands battles, having served over thirty

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<v Speaker 2>four years active duty in the US Marine Corps. But

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<v Speaker 2>you know, I was struck by something that our Lisa

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<v Speaker 2>Bayer writes Tim, and she says, quote, the struggle between

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<v Speaker 2>Arabs and Jews of our ownership of the Holy Land

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<v Speaker 2>dates back more than a century and has given rise

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<v Speaker 2>to seven major wars. Of course, the latest broke out

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<v Speaker 2>October seventh, which is what we are talking about now.

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<v Speaker 2>So my question is how do we get this struggle

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<v Speaker 2>to stop ultimately?

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, this has been a defining characteristic of the

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<v Speaker 3>Middle East during our lifetimes. And the sad part is

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<v Speaker 3>is I don't see how it ends anytime soon.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and we appreciate though the Major General wing, and

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<v Speaker 2>we're gonna have another voice with an interesting and unique

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<v Speaker 2>perspective a little bit later on on this conflict.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

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<v Speaker 2>Hey, we have talked earlier about the latest on the

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<v Speaker 2>Israeli Halmus conflict and really the way forward, trying to

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<v Speaker 2>figure it out and kind of what happens next and

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<v Speaker 2>how much wider maybe it expands. We have another voice

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<v Speaker 2>on this, tim who comes in comes at it from

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<v Speaker 2>a few different angles.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, very please to have with us this afternoon. Lee

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<v Speaker 3>or Susan a former special forces agent for the Israeli military,

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<v Speaker 3>also the founder and managing partner of Eclipse Ventures. It's

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<v Speaker 3>a VC firm that invests in as they know it

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<v Speaker 3>on their website quote entrepreneurs rebuilding the world's physical industries.

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<v Speaker 3>Leo joins us this afternoon on Zoom from Palo Alto, California. Lee,

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<v Speaker 3>are good to have you with us this afternoon. Just

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<v Speaker 3>give us your view over the last week as somebody

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<v Speaker 3>who served as a special forces agent in the Israeli

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<v Speaker 3>military and how you're watching what's going on in Israel

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<v Speaker 3>and Gaza.

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<v Speaker 8>Thank you, folks, thanks for having me and first of all,

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<v Speaker 8>sending my prayers to all of the families that lost

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<v Speaker 8>the lot of ones on both sides. I was started

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<v Speaker 8>by saying people are talking about the Israeli Palestine and conflict,

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<v Speaker 8>they must zoom out. This is not an Israeli Palestinian conflict.

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<v Speaker 8>We are talking about the Western world fighting against it all.

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<v Speaker 8>It's not a coincident that the Hamas opened that terrible

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<v Speaker 8>terror attacks on Israel exactly ten days ago when the

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<v Speaker 8>Saudis was ready to sign historical peace process with Israel

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<v Speaker 8>that will change the Middle East. Look what opening in

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<v Speaker 8>the Middle list with the golf countries, with Ue, with Egypt,

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<v Speaker 8>with Jordan. There is a prosperity, there is a new

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<v Speaker 8>way of living next to each other's focusing on building companies,

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<v Speaker 8>focusing on innovation, focusing on technology. The reason that this

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<v Speaker 8>war start is someone is feeling uncomfortable having peace in

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<v Speaker 8>the Middle List and it's connect to China, and it's

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<v Speaker 8>connect to Russia, and of course it's connect to Iran.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's complicated. As we talked earlier with someone who

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<v Speaker 2>fought for the US Marine Corps, has done several duties

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<v Speaker 2>at a very very high level. It's complicated because there

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<v Speaker 2>are so many moving parts. If you will ultimately, do

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<v Speaker 2>you see a way forward that though ultimately where I

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<v Speaker 2>don't want to say capitalism, but a better economic way

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<v Speaker 2>for more actually wins out.

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<v Speaker 8>There or any other way around. Israel is not going anywhere.

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<v Speaker 8>On the Palestinian is not going anywhere. We must find

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<v Speaker 8>a way to live in peace next to each other,

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<v Speaker 8>and there is zero chance that that's will happening. While

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<v Speaker 8>a radical toe organizations like comas controlling Gaza because they

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<v Speaker 8>say actually on their foundation that their mission in the

0:13:22.800 --> 0:13:25.880
<v Speaker 8>world is to wipe Jews and israel Is from the map.

0:13:25.960 --> 0:13:28.720
<v Speaker 8>That's the only thing they believe. In death, you cannot

0:13:28.720 --> 0:13:32.000
<v Speaker 8>do business with people that wants you to die. But

0:13:32.400 --> 0:13:36.080
<v Speaker 8>from a fundamental point of view, I love the Palestinians

0:13:36.080 --> 0:13:39.600
<v Speaker 8>and have a lot of Palestinians friends, and we want

0:13:39.679 --> 0:13:43.560
<v Speaker 8>to live next to each other in peace, focusing on

0:13:43.720 --> 0:13:48.559
<v Speaker 8>building the next technology that will kill cancer. As someone

0:13:48.679 --> 0:13:52.120
<v Speaker 8>that served and so the pain of war, there is

0:13:52.160 --> 0:13:54.720
<v Speaker 8>nobody more incentive than I to go and fight against

0:13:54.760 --> 0:13:57.480
<v Speaker 8>those tail organizations to make sure that we can go

0:13:57.520 --> 0:13:59.920
<v Speaker 8>and focusing on prosperity rather than fight.

0:14:00.000 --> 0:14:04.480
<v Speaker 3>I think you served in the special forces for the

0:14:04.520 --> 0:14:08.520
<v Speaker 3>Israeli military. We see many many people going back to

0:14:08.679 --> 0:14:12.880
<v Speaker 3>Israel to serve once again, as hundreds of thousands have

0:14:12.920 --> 0:14:16.520
<v Speaker 3>been called up. Have you been called up? Are you

0:14:16.559 --> 0:14:17.040
<v Speaker 3>going back?

0:14:19.240 --> 0:14:22.440
<v Speaker 8>Unfortunately, I don't have the clearance that it's required anymore

0:14:22.520 --> 0:14:25.040
<v Speaker 8>to serve for my country because I live in the

0:14:25.120 --> 0:14:29.200
<v Speaker 8>United States for more than a decade. All of my

0:14:29.320 --> 0:14:32.280
<v Speaker 8>friends wants me to be here right now to focusing

0:14:32.320 --> 0:14:35.320
<v Speaker 8>and explaining the world that this is not a word

0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:38.680
<v Speaker 8>between the Israeli and the Palestinian This is a war

0:14:38.760 --> 0:14:43.240
<v Speaker 8>between democracy and a radical world, a radical that don't

0:14:43.240 --> 0:14:45.560
<v Speaker 8>believe a freedom of speech, that don't believe a freedom

0:14:46.160 --> 0:14:50.000
<v Speaker 8>of religion, and don't believe in prosperity in building businesses.

0:14:50.360 --> 0:14:54.520
<v Speaker 8>So unfortunately, I need to serve my country from palalto

0:14:54.600 --> 0:14:56.080
<v Speaker 8>right now, So talk to us.

0:14:56.120 --> 0:14:57.920
<v Speaker 2>Though, I thought le Or what was interesting, because I

0:14:57.920 --> 0:15:00.560
<v Speaker 2>do think that many think it is a war between

0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:05.560
<v Speaker 2>it is between Israel and Hamas. But I think there's

0:15:06.600 --> 0:15:10.880
<v Speaker 2>a feeling too of conflict between Israel and Palestine or Palestinians.

0:15:11.280 --> 0:15:14.280
<v Speaker 2>You say you work with them, talk to us about

0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:17.400
<v Speaker 2>in your in your role as a founder of Eclipse Ventures,

0:15:18.400 --> 0:15:21.320
<v Speaker 2>I'm assuming you're investing in all kinds of businesses. Talk

0:15:21.320 --> 0:15:23.040
<v Speaker 2>to us a little bit about that relationship that you

0:15:23.080 --> 0:15:26.520
<v Speaker 2>are having with Palestinians.

0:15:26.760 --> 0:15:29.760
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, let me give you a sad story of a

0:15:29.800 --> 0:15:33.240
<v Speaker 8>close friend. His name is Al Waldman, and he was

0:15:33.280 --> 0:15:36.160
<v Speaker 8>the founder of a company called Melanox that sold in

0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:40.160
<v Speaker 8>a couple of billions of dollars to Nvidia. Eyal was

0:15:40.200 --> 0:15:44.080
<v Speaker 8>the first one to establish an RND centers in the

0:15:44.320 --> 0:15:49.080
<v Speaker 8>West Bank as well in Gaza software engineers to support Melanox.

0:15:49.400 --> 0:15:51.520
<v Speaker 8>And trust me, he didn't receive a lot of love

0:15:51.800 --> 0:15:54.120
<v Speaker 8>from the right wings in Israel by doing that, and

0:15:54.240 --> 0:15:57.960
<v Speaker 8>he employeed thousands of people in the West Bank and

0:15:58.040 --> 0:16:00.920
<v Speaker 8>Gaza that will do software developed and for him because

0:16:01.000 --> 0:16:03.560
<v Speaker 8>like me, he believed that the only way to fight

0:16:03.560 --> 0:16:08.000
<v Speaker 8>still all is true business and true friendship. Ayal's daughter

0:16:08.360 --> 0:16:12.160
<v Speaker 8>was one of those kids being slaughter in that music

0:16:12.240 --> 0:16:17.160
<v Speaker 8>festival ten days ago. So how ironic is that that

0:16:17.240 --> 0:16:20.320
<v Speaker 8>his daughter that was twenty three years old dance and

0:16:20.480 --> 0:16:25.760
<v Speaker 8>music festival got slaughtered by Ramastel, while Ayal is the

0:16:25.760 --> 0:16:30.000
<v Speaker 8>one that employeed thousands of people on the Palestine inside.

0:16:31.400 --> 0:16:35.800
<v Speaker 2>There's no words, There's absolutely no words. And I guess

0:16:35.800 --> 0:16:38.560
<v Speaker 2>what I wonder too, is you know we think about

0:16:38.560 --> 0:16:42.880
<v Speaker 2>this a lotly, or that we think finding an economic

0:16:42.960 --> 0:16:47.600
<v Speaker 2>way out of things or capitalism ultimately will prevail and

0:16:49.680 --> 0:16:54.240
<v Speaker 2>lead it to a better way for everyone. Is I

0:16:54.240 --> 0:16:56.040
<v Speaker 2>guess what? We're just trying to figure out that there's

0:16:56.080 --> 0:16:58.720
<v Speaker 2>been conflict in this region, in this area in particular,

0:16:58.840 --> 0:17:01.440
<v Speaker 2>for such a long time time. So I hear what

0:17:01.520 --> 0:17:05.320
<v Speaker 2>you say, So how do we get the way forward,

0:17:06.119 --> 0:17:08.720
<v Speaker 2>especially when you still do have terrorists who are out

0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:09.760
<v Speaker 2>there like Amas.

0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:14.040
<v Speaker 8>I think it's a great example of me traveling to

0:17:14.119 --> 0:17:17.480
<v Speaker 8>the UE ten times this year and doing amazing business

0:17:17.520 --> 0:17:22.040
<v Speaker 8>and watching the highness leadership. It's a great example of

0:17:22.040 --> 0:17:27.440
<v Speaker 8>how you winterval But which prosperity there is in Lebanon's

0:17:27.480 --> 0:17:30.640
<v Speaker 8>physimalized there to free the Lebanese. Is Hamasi is there

0:17:30.720 --> 0:17:35.280
<v Speaker 8>to free the Palestinians, is Isis is there to free

0:17:35.320 --> 0:17:39.320
<v Speaker 8>the Surian people. Is Al Qaeda was there to free Afghanistan.

0:17:40.560 --> 0:17:43.440
<v Speaker 8>We all in the Western world needs to fight Telo

0:17:43.920 --> 0:17:46.919
<v Speaker 8>so we can our kids can have a future. And

0:17:47.000 --> 0:17:49.000
<v Speaker 8>I want my kids to have a future next to

0:17:49.040 --> 0:17:52.760
<v Speaker 8>my Palestinians neighbors. There is no any other way around,

0:17:52.800 --> 0:17:54.840
<v Speaker 8>and I will never stop fighting for it.

0:17:55.359 --> 0:17:59.240
<v Speaker 3>Are you worried about a potential ground invasion of Gaza?

0:17:59.320 --> 0:18:02.960
<v Speaker 3>After all, it's been days since Israel warned people in

0:18:03.040 --> 0:18:05.560
<v Speaker 3>northern Gaza to move to southern Gaza.

0:18:05.160 --> 0:18:07.080
<v Speaker 2>And do you think it's wrong considering what you just

0:18:07.119 --> 0:18:10.280
<v Speaker 2>said about Palestinians.

0:18:11.600 --> 0:18:17.119
<v Speaker 8>I'm sorry and sad about the situation that is happening there,

0:18:17.400 --> 0:18:20.720
<v Speaker 8>but you need to understand that Israel is not going

0:18:20.800 --> 0:18:24.800
<v Speaker 8>to sit aside and let the whole west of the country.

0:18:25.119 --> 0:18:29.040
<v Speaker 8>Having thirteen hundred kids and womens that've been slaughter in

0:18:29.080 --> 0:18:32.719
<v Speaker 8>one day and more than one hundred and fifty people kidnapped,

0:18:32.920 --> 0:18:36.040
<v Speaker 8>most of them civilians, some of them babies. On the

0:18:36.040 --> 0:18:39.720
<v Speaker 8>age of three months. Israel cannot continue to have the

0:18:39.760 --> 0:18:43.760
<v Speaker 8>Hamas sitting in the south part of Israel shooting rockets

0:18:43.840 --> 0:18:48.800
<v Speaker 8>when they feel comfortable with Which prosperity happened in Gaza.

0:18:48.920 --> 0:18:51.280
<v Speaker 8>Israel is out of Gaza on two thousand and five.

0:18:51.800 --> 0:18:57.240
<v Speaker 8>Which prosperity, which start that is being built, which infrastructure,

0:18:57.520 --> 0:19:02.480
<v Speaker 8>which a great innovation is happening. Nothing can be born

0:19:03.000 --> 0:19:06.640
<v Speaker 8>when there is a radical to organization control the old country.

0:19:06.880 --> 0:19:11.280
<v Speaker 8>And unfortunately, unfortunately more people are going to lose their

0:19:11.320 --> 0:19:14.560
<v Speaker 8>life both sides because of that organization.

0:19:14.840 --> 0:19:16.240
<v Speaker 2>Lee Or, we have to leave it there, but I

0:19:16.280 --> 0:19:18.040
<v Speaker 2>hope we can come back to you, and I hope

0:19:18.080 --> 0:19:19.400
<v Speaker 2>we can come back to you at a time that's

0:19:19.440 --> 0:19:23.359
<v Speaker 2>more peaceful, certainly in the Middle East at this point

0:19:23.359 --> 0:19:26.840
<v Speaker 2>in Israel and Gaza specifically, Lee Or susan former special

0:19:26.880 --> 0:19:29.920
<v Speaker 2>forces agent for the Israeli military, founder managing partner of

0:19:29.960 --> 0:19:34.119
<v Speaker 2>Eclipse Ventures. They're an investor and they are investing in

0:19:34.280 --> 0:19:39.160
<v Speaker 2>entrepreneurs who are rebuilding specifically the world's physical industries. So

0:19:39.240 --> 0:19:42.320
<v Speaker 2>you can find more information at their website. But just

0:19:42.359 --> 0:19:44.600
<v Speaker 2>great to get his perspective, A very unique one and

0:19:44.640 --> 0:19:48.160
<v Speaker 2>I think a really important one, joining us from Palo Alto, California.

0:19:48.359 --> 0:19:49.159
<v Speaker 9>This is Bloomberg.

0:19:50.760 --> 0:19:54.360
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:19:54.400 --> 0:19:58.000
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg

0:19:58.119 --> 0:20:01.879
<v Speaker 1>Radio the Bloomberg Business app YouTube. You can also listen

0:20:01.960 --> 0:20:05.080
<v Speaker 1>live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

0:20:05.520 --> 0:20:09.840
<v Speaker 1>Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:20:10.320 --> 0:20:12.400
<v Speaker 3>All right, Carol, check this out. According to the US

0:20:12.400 --> 0:20:14.680
<v Speaker 3>Census Bureau, the number of people here in the US

0:20:14.720 --> 0:20:17.520
<v Speaker 3>who spoke a language at home other than English almost

0:20:17.680 --> 0:20:21.399
<v Speaker 3>tripled between the years nineteen eighty and twenty nineteen. So

0:20:21.440 --> 0:20:24.040
<v Speaker 3>in terms of numbers, it's nearly seventy million people here

0:20:24.080 --> 0:20:24.520
<v Speaker 3>in the US.

0:20:24.640 --> 0:20:25.280
<v Speaker 2>That's like a lot.

0:20:25.359 --> 0:20:27.640
<v Speaker 3>But that's a lot. But I'm not one of them.

0:20:27.720 --> 0:20:30.000
<v Speaker 3>But what if you're like, you know, I want to

0:20:30.080 --> 0:20:33.720
<v Speaker 3>learn a new language. Maybe brush up on that spanishlingual

0:20:33.760 --> 0:20:37.800
<v Speaker 3>little not bilingual? Okay, yeah, maybe brush up on that Spanish.

0:20:37.800 --> 0:20:39.280
<v Speaker 3>From the semester of broad did you study abroad?

0:20:39.640 --> 0:20:40.040
<v Speaker 2>I did not?

0:20:40.680 --> 0:20:41.639
<v Speaker 3>You speak another language?

0:20:42.040 --> 0:20:45.080
<v Speaker 2>No, but I took I don't know, eight years, ten

0:20:45.160 --> 0:20:46.720
<v Speaker 2>years of Spanish. So if you throw me into a

0:20:46.720 --> 0:20:49.520
<v Speaker 2>Spanish speaking country, I can I can get along oh cool.

0:20:49.600 --> 0:20:51.760
<v Speaker 3>Well, maybe you can also brush up on some of

0:20:51.800 --> 0:20:54.560
<v Speaker 3>the online services that are available. There are many out there.

0:20:54.560 --> 0:20:56.959
<v Speaker 3>Among them are the language learning platform Babel. We've got

0:20:57.000 --> 0:20:59.760
<v Speaker 3>with us Julie Hansen. She's US CEO of Babel. It's

0:20:59.760 --> 0:21:01.919
<v Speaker 3>avidly held company and it's a role that she's had

0:21:01.960 --> 0:21:04.800
<v Speaker 3>since twenty seventeen. Julie also we should notice the former

0:21:04.880 --> 0:21:07.960
<v Speaker 3>COO and president at Business Insider. She was there when

0:21:07.960 --> 0:21:10.320
<v Speaker 3>Actual Springer bought BI in a deal that valued the

0:21:10.320 --> 0:21:12.399
<v Speaker 3>company for four hundred and fifty million dollars back in

0:21:12.440 --> 0:21:15.400
<v Speaker 3>twenty fifteen. Julie joins us on Zoom from New York. Julie,

0:21:15.400 --> 0:21:16.840
<v Speaker 3>good to have you with us this afternoon. How are

0:21:16.840 --> 0:21:18.520
<v Speaker 3>you good.

0:21:18.600 --> 0:21:20.159
<v Speaker 9>Thanks Tim, Thanks Carol, thanks for having me.

0:21:20.240 --> 0:21:22.800
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's good to have you with us. Talk to

0:21:22.880 --> 0:21:24.280
<v Speaker 3>us a little bit about the growth that you've seen

0:21:24.280 --> 0:21:26.040
<v Speaker 3>on the platform, because I got to tell you there

0:21:26.080 --> 0:21:28.640
<v Speaker 3>is no shortage of places where you can go online

0:21:28.680 --> 0:21:29.600
<v Speaker 3>to learn languages.

0:21:30.920 --> 0:21:34.800
<v Speaker 10>True, but we've seen I mean, Babbel was the originator

0:21:34.840 --> 0:21:38.480
<v Speaker 10>of the category of online language learning some seventeen years

0:21:38.480 --> 0:21:42.480
<v Speaker 10>ago when it was founded in Germany, and we've seen

0:21:42.520 --> 0:21:45.760
<v Speaker 10>double digit growth. Growth really boomed during the pandemic, but

0:21:45.800 --> 0:21:49.080
<v Speaker 10>then it stayed at very elevated double digit rates ever since,

0:21:49.080 --> 0:21:52.120
<v Speaker 10>and we've been able to sustain that growth. And part

0:21:52.160 --> 0:21:54.960
<v Speaker 10>of what drives it is what you said at the

0:21:55.000 --> 0:22:00.000
<v Speaker 10>top of the program that you know, multi language family

0:22:00.359 --> 0:22:03.320
<v Speaker 10>are growing in this country, but it's also just become

0:22:03.920 --> 0:22:05.840
<v Speaker 10>something that's somehow.

0:22:05.520 --> 0:22:08.560
<v Speaker 9>More appealing to do in our culture, and we're benefiting

0:22:08.560 --> 0:22:08.840
<v Speaker 9>from that.

0:22:09.160 --> 0:22:11.199
<v Speaker 2>So Jilly, wait, help me out here. You said obviously

0:22:11.320 --> 0:22:14.440
<v Speaker 2>makes sense. Right, a boom during the pandemic, right, people

0:22:14.440 --> 0:22:16.840
<v Speaker 2>are at home. They wanted to learn to knit, learn

0:22:16.920 --> 0:22:19.240
<v Speaker 2>to make sour dough bread, and learn to speak another language.

0:22:19.320 --> 0:22:21.800
<v Speaker 2>Like that's what it was about and stay healthy, no

0:22:21.800 --> 0:22:24.360
<v Speaker 2>doubt about that during the pandemic. But you've held on

0:22:24.440 --> 0:22:30.040
<v Speaker 2>to those levels of growth as well as subscribers give us.

0:22:30.320 --> 0:22:33.280
<v Speaker 2>Are you saying that you've maintained those levels in the gains.

0:22:34.800 --> 0:22:37.280
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, I mean, not quite at the pandemic levels, but

0:22:37.320 --> 0:22:39.960
<v Speaker 10>we've grown double digit ever since the pandemic, so very

0:22:39.960 --> 0:22:44.000
<v Speaker 10>strong growth. I mean, Babel is the most sold language

0:22:44.040 --> 0:22:48.840
<v Speaker 10>learning platform ever. We've sold more than sixteen million subscriptions

0:22:49.720 --> 0:22:53.439
<v Speaker 10>over time. So yeah, I can't tell you all the

0:22:53.440 --> 0:22:55.919
<v Speaker 10>reasons why, but it just seems like something about the

0:22:56.000 --> 0:22:59.280
<v Speaker 10>language learning boom during the pandemic validated that as an

0:22:59.320 --> 0:23:01.200
<v Speaker 10>activity people have stayed with it.

0:23:01.480 --> 0:23:03.919
<v Speaker 2>I'm curious, like, how does it work if you become

0:23:04.240 --> 0:23:06.919
<v Speaker 2>you know, you sign on and you become a customer

0:23:07.320 --> 0:23:11.080
<v Speaker 2>of your services, do you become a repeat customer? Is

0:23:11.119 --> 0:23:13.679
<v Speaker 2>that what often? Or is it all about new customer acquisition?

0:23:14.760 --> 0:23:18.520
<v Speaker 9>That so interesting? Actually, in Europe, especially in Germany, we

0:23:18.560 --> 0:23:19.480
<v Speaker 9>do see quite.

0:23:19.240 --> 0:23:22.800
<v Speaker 10>A bit of repeat purchases, whether people are coming back

0:23:22.840 --> 0:23:26.439
<v Speaker 10>to a language after a pause or often there like

0:23:26.600 --> 0:23:29.800
<v Speaker 10>learning the next language, which of course is very impressive.

0:23:30.520 --> 0:23:35.520
<v Speaker 3>Who are these people languages?

0:23:37.080 --> 0:23:39.240
<v Speaker 10>Over Here in the US we tend to see that

0:23:39.280 --> 0:23:41.440
<v Speaker 10>people take a pause and then come back.

0:23:42.240 --> 0:23:45.080
<v Speaker 9>But language learning is, you know, a long term activity.

0:23:45.560 --> 0:23:48.520
<v Speaker 10>You can make progress in a short time period, but

0:23:48.560 --> 0:23:53.160
<v Speaker 10>you don't become fluent without you know, a considerable long

0:23:53.240 --> 0:23:55.959
<v Speaker 10>term effort. So people know that, and there's actually one

0:23:55.960 --> 0:23:59.439
<v Speaker 10>of the reasons why lifetime subscription is a very popular option.

0:24:00.080 --> 0:24:02.919
<v Speaker 3>Talk to me about the strategy here with Babel in

0:24:03.040 --> 0:24:06.480
<v Speaker 3>terms of learning and how Babel teaches in a way

0:24:06.520 --> 0:24:09.240
<v Speaker 3>that's different from other platforms, and compare with dual lingo.

0:24:09.440 --> 0:24:12.000
<v Speaker 3>I know, dual Lingos a company. It's publicly traded. It's

0:24:12.040 --> 0:24:14.600
<v Speaker 3>got a market cap of about six point nine billion dollars.

0:24:14.640 --> 0:24:17.399
<v Speaker 3>It went public just a couple of years ago, and

0:24:17.440 --> 0:24:19.840
<v Speaker 3>that one certainly gets a lot of mind share with

0:24:20.320 --> 0:24:23.399
<v Speaker 3>especially millennials and gen z yep.

0:24:24.160 --> 0:24:28.200
<v Speaker 10>Definitely different learning approaches at Babel. We use a lot

0:24:28.200 --> 0:24:31.720
<v Speaker 10>of learning science and frankly a lot of AI embedded

0:24:31.760 --> 0:24:33.640
<v Speaker 10>in the product, but we.

0:24:33.680 --> 0:24:36.160
<v Speaker 9>Do believe that human led teaching.

0:24:36.520 --> 0:24:39.680
<v Speaker 10>We have something like one hundred and fifty didactics experts

0:24:39.720 --> 0:24:42.320
<v Speaker 10>on staff who've created.

0:24:41.840 --> 0:24:44.439
<v Speaker 9>Our courses that we need.

0:24:43.840 --> 0:24:48.399
<v Speaker 10>To marry their knowledge with technologies basically the essence of

0:24:48.440 --> 0:24:51.880
<v Speaker 10>what we do. We also believe that you're not going

0:24:51.920 --> 0:24:55.840
<v Speaker 10>to become perfectly fluent from any app, so that's why

0:24:55.920 --> 0:24:59.399
<v Speaker 10>we've created other products to support and round out the

0:24:59.480 --> 0:25:01.199
<v Speaker 10>languagelearning experience.

0:25:01.359 --> 0:25:02.439
<v Speaker 6>So it might.

0:25:02.320 --> 0:25:04.879
<v Speaker 10>Be a bunch of podcasts. I think we're up to

0:25:04.920 --> 0:25:08.679
<v Speaker 10>twenty three different podcasts, but we also have live teacher

0:25:08.800 --> 0:25:12.520
<v Speaker 10>led you know, virtual classes, and those are an important

0:25:12.520 --> 0:25:15.280
<v Speaker 10>part of you know, really we care about learner success,

0:25:15.680 --> 0:25:19.000
<v Speaker 10>so we believe that to get learners to succeed, you

0:25:19.040 --> 0:25:21.120
<v Speaker 10>have to combine learning methods.

0:25:21.359 --> 0:25:24.399
<v Speaker 9>I mean, there's scientific research behind that's not just our belief.

0:25:25.400 --> 0:25:30.280
<v Speaker 10>So it's that combination of human and technology, especially AI,

0:25:30.400 --> 0:25:33.439
<v Speaker 10>but other technologies too, and the idea of creating a

0:25:33.480 --> 0:25:36.879
<v Speaker 10>whole surround sound of learning experiences.

0:25:37.160 --> 0:25:39.320
<v Speaker 2>It's really interesting how much of your business is B

0:25:39.400 --> 0:25:41.840
<v Speaker 2>to B business to business I'm always curious about or

0:25:41.920 --> 0:25:44.040
<v Speaker 2>is a lot of it just individuals who want to

0:25:44.080 --> 0:25:44.800
<v Speaker 2>learn a language.

0:25:46.040 --> 0:25:48.040
<v Speaker 10>Well, the B to B is the fastest growing segment

0:25:48.080 --> 0:25:51.320
<v Speaker 10>of our business by far. It's the newest compared to

0:25:51.440 --> 0:25:54.159
<v Speaker 10>the consumer though, so it's not nearly as big, but

0:25:54.240 --> 0:25:59.240
<v Speaker 10>growing fast. And those are very interesting use cases. We

0:25:59.280 --> 0:26:03.080
<v Speaker 10>started that business in Europe, we found, you know, international companies,

0:26:03.200 --> 0:26:08.359
<v Speaker 10>multinational companies needed help. And then we came to the

0:26:08.520 --> 0:26:10.720
<v Speaker 10>US and it took a while to sort for the

0:26:10.840 --> 0:26:14.399
<v Speaker 10>use case to become clear here. But we believe the

0:26:14.400 --> 0:26:17.560
<v Speaker 10>growth opportunity is massive in the US based on just

0:26:17.600 --> 0:26:22.280
<v Speaker 10>migration patterns, because often babble is brought in for language

0:26:22.320 --> 0:26:25.960
<v Speaker 10>teaching in situations where there's workplace safety at risk.

0:26:27.160 --> 0:26:28.359
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, we have a.

0:26:28.359 --> 0:26:30.399
<v Speaker 10>Very diverse group of clients here from a bunch of

0:26:30.480 --> 0:26:34.600
<v Speaker 10>MLB teams. Maybe safety isn't quite the thing there, it's excellence.

0:26:35.320 --> 0:26:39.719
<v Speaker 10>But you know, down to meat packers, landscapers. I mean

0:26:39.800 --> 0:26:43.359
<v Speaker 10>places where that where language barriers create safety issues and

0:26:43.400 --> 0:26:44.719
<v Speaker 10>there's a big opportunity in that.

0:26:45.000 --> 0:26:47.720
<v Speaker 3>Talk to me about mobile versus desktop right now? What's

0:26:47.800 --> 0:26:48.560
<v Speaker 3>the share on mobile?

0:26:49.359 --> 0:26:51.840
<v Speaker 10>You know, when I started here, if you can imagine people,

0:26:51.920 --> 0:26:55.359
<v Speaker 10>actually there was a lot of desktop usage that was

0:26:55.440 --> 0:26:56.520
<v Speaker 10>just six years ago, and I.

0:26:56.440 --> 0:27:01.280
<v Speaker 9>Thought it was really peculiar, frankly from the US. But

0:27:01.400 --> 0:27:05.120
<v Speaker 9>now it's We're a mobile app. There are still some.

0:27:05.040 --> 0:27:07.960
<v Speaker 10>People who use the product on their desktop or maybe

0:27:08.000 --> 0:27:10.600
<v Speaker 10>their iPad, but it's a mobile world.

0:27:11.119 --> 0:27:11.600
<v Speaker 5>What does it.

0:27:11.560 --> 0:27:15.280
<v Speaker 2>Typically cost for somebody who wants to subscribe or learn

0:27:15.320 --> 0:27:15.880
<v Speaker 2>a language?

0:27:17.280 --> 0:27:19.720
<v Speaker 10>I mean, you can start in the US if you

0:27:19.760 --> 0:27:22.080
<v Speaker 10>want to just try a one month subscription for about

0:27:22.080 --> 0:27:24.880
<v Speaker 10>fifteen bucks. If you want to subscribe for the year,

0:27:25.160 --> 0:27:28.560
<v Speaker 10>more like ninety dollars. You can pick up a lifetime

0:27:28.600 --> 0:27:31.359
<v Speaker 10>subscription for call it three hundred bucks.

0:27:31.920 --> 0:27:35.080
<v Speaker 2>So in that range, and your biggest market or biggest

0:27:35.160 --> 0:27:37.080
<v Speaker 2>or fastest growing market, is it the US just got

0:27:37.080 --> 0:27:38.680
<v Speaker 2>about thirty seconds left here.

0:27:39.560 --> 0:27:40.280
<v Speaker 9>Yes to both.

0:27:40.920 --> 0:27:43.600
<v Speaker 10>The US was late the last one that we were

0:27:43.840 --> 0:27:46.359
<v Speaker 10>found success in and it took a very dedicated approach,

0:27:46.440 --> 0:27:49.879
<v Speaker 10>but it's now the biggest market the fastest growing. You know,

0:27:49.920 --> 0:27:53.200
<v Speaker 10>it's all about learning Mexican Spanish in the US market.

0:27:53.200 --> 0:27:55.680
<v Speaker 9>But we teach, we teach all of our fourteen languages.

0:27:55.720 --> 0:27:57.640
<v Speaker 9>But that's the popular language here.

0:27:58.240 --> 0:28:01.720
<v Speaker 2>Really interesting. Thanks for the site, Really fascinating. Julie Hansen,

0:28:02.359 --> 0:28:06.440
<v Speaker 2>US CEO Babbel and joining us of course on zoom

0:28:06.520 --> 0:28:09.159
<v Speaker 2>in New York City. If you have to pick a language,

0:28:09.160 --> 0:28:12.040
<v Speaker 2>finish yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, me too, Absolutely.

0:28:11.720 --> 0:28:13.160
<v Speaker 9>Love it, keep learning it.

0:28:13.520 --> 0:28:15.639
<v Speaker 2>Or you are listening and watching Bloomberg Business Week. This

0:28:15.680 --> 0:28:16.520
<v Speaker 2>is Bloomberg Radio.

0:28:17.800 --> 0:28:21.400
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:28:21.400 --> 0:28:25.440
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg Radio,

0:28:25.640 --> 0:28:28.919
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Business app and YouTube. You can also listen

0:28:29.000 --> 0:28:32.119
<v Speaker 1>live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station

0:28:32.560 --> 0:28:35.359
<v Speaker 1>just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:28:36.359 --> 0:28:38.840
<v Speaker 2>Well, there's a common refrain that if an app is free,

0:28:38.920 --> 0:28:40.120
<v Speaker 2>tim you are the product.

0:28:40.280 --> 0:28:42.240
<v Speaker 3>It's certainly been true for years when it comes to

0:28:42.320 --> 0:28:45.360
<v Speaker 3>meta platforms. It's the company formerly known as Facebook. After all,

0:28:45.360 --> 0:28:48.680
<v Speaker 3>Think about this list of apps. They've got Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp,

0:28:48.680 --> 0:28:52.480
<v Speaker 3>Messenger threads. They've also got the VR app Horizon Worlds, Carol,

0:28:52.480 --> 0:28:55.200
<v Speaker 3>I don't thank you you spent any time there, even

0:28:55.200 --> 0:28:58.160
<v Speaker 3>though it also sells gaming headsets, smart sunglasses, and business

0:28:58.200 --> 0:29:01.920
<v Speaker 3>productivity software at until accounts for more than ninety eight percent

0:29:02.240 --> 0:29:04.160
<v Speaker 3>of the company's revenue ninety eight percent.

0:29:04.200 --> 0:29:06.720
<v Speaker 2>But that model, maybe it could be about to change.

0:29:06.760 --> 0:29:09.520
<v Speaker 2>Could people start paying for ad free versions of all

0:29:09.560 --> 0:29:11.800
<v Speaker 2>of that. We're going to get into that because in

0:29:11.840 --> 0:29:14.960
<v Speaker 2>the forthcoming issue of Bloomberg BusinessWeek magazine, which will be

0:29:15.000 --> 0:29:17.720
<v Speaker 2>on newstands later this week, already online at Blomberg dot com,

0:29:17.720 --> 0:29:20.479
<v Speaker 2>slash BusinessWeek and on the Bloomberg is a story that

0:29:20.840 --> 0:29:24.400
<v Speaker 2>gets into this. Columnist Max Chafkin wrote it about Meta's

0:29:24.400 --> 0:29:26.800
<v Speaker 2>flirtation with ad free services. He joins us here in

0:29:26.800 --> 0:29:29.440
<v Speaker 2>our interactive broker studio along with the editor of BusinessWeek,

0:29:30.120 --> 0:29:33.240
<v Speaker 2>Joel Weber, So Joel, lots of things.

0:29:33.000 --> 0:29:34.920
<v Speaker 6>Going on, not just advertising.

0:29:34.920 --> 0:29:40.080
<v Speaker 11>That ninety eight point four percent figure, personalized, personalized.

0:29:39.480 --> 0:29:41.600
<v Speaker 3>Personalized, those ads that follow you around.

0:29:41.720 --> 0:29:46.160
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, and so that creepy ad tracking is a hallmark

0:29:46.360 --> 0:29:51.560
<v Speaker 11>of Max Chafkins reporting it's not just Meta. He's also

0:29:51.680 --> 0:29:54.800
<v Speaker 11>pointed out, you know, Google in the past has had

0:29:54.800 --> 0:29:55.680
<v Speaker 11>some big numbers like this.

0:29:56.080 --> 0:29:58.240
<v Speaker 12>Facebook would not say it was creepy. They would say,

0:29:58.240 --> 0:30:02.560
<v Speaker 12>it's very useful. Mark Zuckerberg has said repeatedly that there's

0:30:02.600 --> 0:30:06.920
<v Speaker 12>that that they like, person that people like personalized advertising.

0:30:06.920 --> 0:30:09.120
<v Speaker 12>You'd be a huge loss if this, if this one away.

0:30:09.160 --> 0:30:11.160
<v Speaker 2>But raise your hand in the studio if you like

0:30:11.200 --> 0:30:12.440
<v Speaker 2>personalized advertising.

0:30:13.240 --> 0:30:13.440
<v Speaker 1>You know.

0:30:13.560 --> 0:30:15.680
<v Speaker 12>Sometimes sometimes nobody raised their hand.

0:30:15.720 --> 0:30:18.800
<v Speaker 6>Sometimes it's so much halfway, you know, your halfway.

0:30:19.040 --> 0:30:19.920
<v Speaker 3>My favorite is.

0:30:19.840 --> 0:30:21.880
<v Speaker 11>You know on Amazon, when you buy something and then

0:30:21.920 --> 0:30:23.640
<v Speaker 11>it's like an ad for the thing that you bought already.

0:30:23.680 --> 0:30:25.760
<v Speaker 12>It's like, come on, you want to remember the pair

0:30:25.760 --> 0:30:28.320
<v Speaker 12>of shoes that you had in your cart the day before.

0:30:29.000 --> 0:30:32.560
<v Speaker 11>But but Max walk us through what this experiment looks

0:30:32.640 --> 0:30:34.600
<v Speaker 11>like and how and what it really means.

0:30:34.360 --> 0:30:35.120
<v Speaker 6>For a man.

0:30:35.400 --> 0:30:35.600
<v Speaker 11>Right.

0:30:35.720 --> 0:30:40.800
<v Speaker 12>So, basically, in twenty eighteen, the EU passed the thing

0:30:40.920 --> 0:30:44.959
<v Speaker 12>called GDPR. It's a big, complicated set of privacy rules

0:30:45.000 --> 0:30:50.040
<v Speaker 12>that essentially require companies to ask for consent before showing

0:30:50.080 --> 0:30:51.120
<v Speaker 12>personalized ads.

0:30:51.360 --> 0:30:52.920
<v Speaker 6>And Facebook has been in this kind of.

0:30:53.040 --> 0:30:57.479
<v Speaker 12>Long running battle with European regulators, which kind of reached

0:30:57.520 --> 0:31:01.160
<v Speaker 12>a culmination this summer with a court ruling that essentially

0:31:01.200 --> 0:31:03.440
<v Speaker 12>is forcing them to finally go ahead and do this.

0:31:03.760 --> 0:31:05.680
<v Speaker 12>And the way they want to do it is by

0:31:05.720 --> 0:31:09.760
<v Speaker 12>offering a paid version of the service with no advertising

0:31:09.760 --> 0:31:12.440
<v Speaker 12>in Europe. So so the EU is sort of asking, hey,

0:31:12.480 --> 0:31:14.680
<v Speaker 12>if you're gonna if you're going to personalized ads, you

0:31:14.760 --> 0:31:17.440
<v Speaker 12>got to offer people a way out. Facebook is saying, well,

0:31:17.480 --> 0:31:19.720
<v Speaker 12>our way out is no ads at all, and we're

0:31:19.720 --> 0:31:21.400
<v Speaker 12>going to charge you for it. And the amount of

0:31:21.440 --> 0:31:24.239
<v Speaker 12>money they're they're talking about charging is relatively high. It's

0:31:24.280 --> 0:31:27.240
<v Speaker 12>around twenty dollars a month, nineteen euros a month, twenty

0:31:27.280 --> 0:31:30.080
<v Speaker 12>dollars a month, which is, you know, probably more than

0:31:30.160 --> 0:31:32.000
<v Speaker 12>most people are willing to pay. You know, it's it's more,

0:31:32.000 --> 0:31:33.360
<v Speaker 12>as we point out the story, it's more than a

0:31:33.400 --> 0:31:36.440
<v Speaker 12>lot of gym memberships and mobile phone plans and so on,

0:31:36.480 --> 0:31:39.520
<v Speaker 12>and certainly more than many other subscriptions like you know,

0:31:39.560 --> 0:31:41.800
<v Speaker 12>Disney Plus and Netflix that people get a lot of

0:31:41.840 --> 0:31:42.320
<v Speaker 12>value out of.

0:31:42.560 --> 0:31:44.680
<v Speaker 3>I kind of think that, you know, people will not

0:31:44.800 --> 0:31:46.520
<v Speaker 3>opt to pay for the services.

0:31:47.000 --> 0:31:49.400
<v Speaker 12>I think that's that's exactly the plan. And that's like

0:31:49.440 --> 0:31:50.240
<v Speaker 12>would you pay for you?

0:31:50.360 --> 0:31:52.440
<v Speaker 3>I would pay. I would like pay to not use it.

0:31:52.880 --> 0:31:54.920
<v Speaker 3>I really, how much do I have to pay in

0:31:55.040 --> 0:31:56.440
<v Speaker 3>order to keep me off Instagram?

0:31:56.960 --> 0:32:00.520
<v Speaker 12>They should consider they should said, interesting, revenue stream for

0:32:01.160 --> 0:32:05.760
<v Speaker 12>for meta platforms. The so I think the intent basically

0:32:05.840 --> 0:32:07.920
<v Speaker 12>is that most people will not pay for it. If

0:32:07.920 --> 0:32:09.480
<v Speaker 12>you if you look at the statement that they've put

0:32:09.480 --> 0:32:11.640
<v Speaker 12>out there, which is in our story, which essentially says,

0:32:11.840 --> 0:32:14.240
<v Speaker 12>you know, we still believe in personalized advertising.

0:32:14.240 --> 0:32:15.720
<v Speaker 6>We just want to work with regulators.

0:32:15.800 --> 0:32:18.280
<v Speaker 12>You read between the lines, are basically saying the regulators

0:32:18.320 --> 0:32:20.240
<v Speaker 12>are making us do this, we don't expect anyone to

0:32:20.240 --> 0:32:20.960
<v Speaker 12>take them up on it.

0:32:21.680 --> 0:32:21.840
<v Speaker 5>You know.

0:32:22.360 --> 0:32:25.200
<v Speaker 12>On the other hand, a lot of companies are playing

0:32:25.240 --> 0:32:27.840
<v Speaker 12>around with this U. You know, we've seen obviously Elon

0:32:27.920 --> 0:32:32.040
<v Speaker 12>Musk and Twitter and kind of very loud fashion offer

0:32:32.080 --> 0:32:32.920
<v Speaker 12>his own subscriptions.

0:32:33.080 --> 0:32:35.240
<v Speaker 3>You pay you tweet a lot or post a lot?

0:32:35.320 --> 0:32:36.880
<v Speaker 3>Do you pay for it? I have not yet paid

0:32:36.920 --> 0:32:39.320
<v Speaker 3>for X Premium either have I? And I feel like

0:32:39.360 --> 0:32:41.600
<v Speaker 3>my tweets are getting lost as a result. Well yeah,

0:32:41.640 --> 0:32:43.280
<v Speaker 3>and sorry, this is like a totally different time.

0:32:43.320 --> 0:32:44.959
<v Speaker 12>Well so, and that's where it gets a little bit

0:32:44.960 --> 0:32:49.120
<v Speaker 12>complicated because, among other things, uh, Elon Musk has talked

0:32:49.120 --> 0:32:50.800
<v Speaker 12>about this as a way to see fewer ads, but

0:32:50.800 --> 0:32:54.239
<v Speaker 12>he's also created all these other enticements, including you know,

0:32:54.280 --> 0:32:58.360
<v Speaker 12>basically pay to play and even so X Premium is

0:32:58.400 --> 0:33:01.000
<v Speaker 12>not doing very well despite the much price points about

0:33:01.000 --> 0:33:04.400
<v Speaker 12>half of that proposed figure that Mark Zuckerberg is which

0:33:04.440 --> 0:33:05.240
<v Speaker 12>I love Facebook.

0:33:05.240 --> 0:33:07.120
<v Speaker 11>You're talking about if you can't have a cage fight,

0:33:07.360 --> 0:33:09.680
<v Speaker 11>you just have a cage fight and you know in

0:33:09.760 --> 0:33:13.680
<v Speaker 11>the marketplace and go, you know, have half price or

0:33:13.720 --> 0:33:14.480
<v Speaker 11>double the price.

0:33:16.120 --> 0:33:18.960
<v Speaker 12>Yeah, the app store is basically the cage fight of

0:33:19.040 --> 0:33:23.480
<v Speaker 12>social media. Snap is also playing around is, as we

0:33:23.560 --> 0:33:26.080
<v Speaker 12>report in the story, is testing an ad free version.

0:33:26.640 --> 0:33:27.680
<v Speaker 6>TikTok has done this.

0:33:28.600 --> 0:33:30.640
<v Speaker 12>You know, I think part of it is that we

0:33:30.720 --> 0:33:32.600
<v Speaker 12>don't actually know what the market is. I think there

0:33:32.640 --> 0:33:35.720
<v Speaker 12>are a lot of people who do not like seeing

0:33:35.760 --> 0:33:38.200
<v Speaker 12>advertising obviously, I mean, it's it's coming to play with

0:33:38.240 --> 0:33:41.680
<v Speaker 12>cable television and other markets. Absolutely. On the other hand,

0:33:41.720 --> 0:33:44.880
<v Speaker 12>and this is where the real problem is, it is

0:33:44.920 --> 0:33:47.280
<v Speaker 12>such a good business, you know, as Joel's intro pointed out,

0:33:47.320 --> 0:33:49.080
<v Speaker 12>it's it's not just as a percentage. It's just like

0:33:49.120 --> 0:33:51.400
<v Speaker 12>the raw numbers we're talking about, you know, more than

0:33:51.440 --> 0:33:53.680
<v Speaker 12>one hundred billion dollars a year for Facebook when you

0:33:53.720 --> 0:33:55.840
<v Speaker 12>do it, when you break down a per user basis,

0:33:55.880 --> 0:33:57.880
<v Speaker 12>if they wanted to do this in the US, you know,

0:33:57.960 --> 0:34:01.000
<v Speaker 12>they would need to reclaim about two hundred twenty dollars

0:34:01.040 --> 0:34:03.680
<v Speaker 12>per person per year who opts out of this, So

0:34:03.920 --> 0:34:06.320
<v Speaker 12>you know that that works out to almost twenty dollars

0:34:06.360 --> 0:34:08.080
<v Speaker 12>a month. And when you when you consider the fact

0:34:08.080 --> 0:34:11.200
<v Speaker 12>that not everyone would pay, that you'd lose some users,

0:34:11.400 --> 0:34:13.760
<v Speaker 12>the real price probably have to be actually a bit higher.

0:34:13.840 --> 0:34:15.960
<v Speaker 12>So it's it's a you know, it's a problem that

0:34:16.000 --> 0:34:19.799
<v Speaker 12>a lot of big established businesses have had when they

0:34:19.800 --> 0:34:22.200
<v Speaker 12>try to like look at different models. Not all that

0:34:22.239 --> 0:34:24.719
<v Speaker 12>different from the cord cutting conversation with cable television.

0:34:25.320 --> 0:34:28.920
<v Speaker 6>So if this worked, how lucrative could it be?

0:34:29.080 --> 0:34:31.680
<v Speaker 11>Like, like, what's the math have to kind of work

0:34:31.719 --> 0:34:35.360
<v Speaker 11>out to where you're obviously going to probably not get.

0:34:35.200 --> 0:34:36.240
<v Speaker 6>Everybody to do it.

0:34:36.239 --> 0:34:39.239
<v Speaker 11>It could actually just be a very small percentage of

0:34:39.280 --> 0:34:42.360
<v Speaker 11>people who opt into it, but like you could have

0:34:42.400 --> 0:34:45.440
<v Speaker 11>a pretty loyal group of people here who are willing

0:34:45.520 --> 0:34:47.600
<v Speaker 11>to you know, pay that annual.

0:34:49.160 --> 0:34:51.640
<v Speaker 12>Again, I think people, I think, I mean, well, it's

0:34:51.680 --> 0:34:54.640
<v Speaker 12>not coming to the US at least, Facebook is meta

0:34:54.719 --> 0:34:57.279
<v Speaker 12>is signaling that it won't. That this is a this

0:34:57.320 --> 0:34:59.200
<v Speaker 12>is a europe only thing, This is you know, a

0:34:59.239 --> 0:35:02.160
<v Speaker 12>thing they're gonna you know, this has to do with regulation,

0:35:02.400 --> 0:35:04.719
<v Speaker 12>not not with what they think the market wants, and

0:35:05.080 --> 0:35:07.680
<v Speaker 12>I do think I mean, I'm sure they would like

0:35:07.760 --> 0:35:10.600
<v Speaker 12>to have more revenue. There is a problem though, if

0:35:10.640 --> 0:35:14.839
<v Speaker 12>you start eating into this network of personalized advertisements.

0:35:14.840 --> 0:35:16.439
<v Speaker 6>You know, one of the.

0:35:16.080 --> 0:35:18.440
<v Speaker 12>Source I talked to you for this story was saying

0:35:18.480 --> 0:35:21.840
<v Speaker 12>that essentially that you know, this is a network business.

0:35:22.080 --> 0:35:24.440
<v Speaker 12>Part of what makes this network valuable is all the people.

0:35:24.520 --> 0:35:27.440
<v Speaker 12>Right now, Facebook has all this data about you that

0:35:27.480 --> 0:35:30.120
<v Speaker 12>collects across the Internet, and it essentially rents it out

0:35:30.120 --> 0:35:32.880
<v Speaker 12>to advertisers. If you start pulling people out of that

0:35:32.960 --> 0:35:34.879
<v Speaker 12>data set, that data set arguably.

0:35:34.520 --> 0:35:35.760
<v Speaker 6>Becomes less valuable.

0:35:35.880 --> 0:35:39.040
<v Speaker 12>And you could imagine a situation where advertisers stop feeling

0:35:39.200 --> 0:35:42.960
<v Speaker 12>like Facebook is a must stop destination and you know

0:35:43.040 --> 0:35:45.200
<v Speaker 12>that is there. The dynamics are a little bit different.

0:35:45.200 --> 0:35:47.440
<v Speaker 12>But that's what's happened to Twitter. You know, as Elon

0:35:47.520 --> 0:35:51.280
<v Speaker 12>Musk has offered this new revenue stream, he's had huge

0:35:51.320 --> 0:35:55.000
<v Speaker 12>difficulties with advertisers. And so I think the challenge what

0:35:55.000 --> 0:35:58.240
<v Speaker 12>Facebook really like is to create new revenue streams while

0:35:58.320 --> 0:36:02.399
<v Speaker 12>also continuing to show personalized advertisements to you know, three

0:36:02.400 --> 0:36:03.239
<v Speaker 12>billion people a year.

0:36:03.280 --> 0:36:06.160
<v Speaker 3>I also think so you're saying you get the cake and.

0:36:06.160 --> 0:36:07.359
<v Speaker 6>Eat it too, that's the goal.

0:36:07.400 --> 0:36:11.920
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, but maybe things go exceptionally well in Europe and

0:36:12.000 --> 0:36:15.359
<v Speaker 11>you have, you know, a three year experiment and you

0:36:15.400 --> 0:36:18.040
<v Speaker 11>take all those learnings and roll it into a US

0:36:18.080 --> 0:36:19.560
<v Speaker 11>that's more favorable.

0:36:19.120 --> 0:36:21.080
<v Speaker 6>By this, I do think. And you know, there's another

0:36:21.080 --> 0:36:21.720
<v Speaker 6>point you're making.

0:36:21.560 --> 0:36:23.560
<v Speaker 12>The story if you look at all that's wrong with

0:36:23.640 --> 0:36:25.839
<v Speaker 12>social media, things that people actually don't like about it,

0:36:25.840 --> 0:36:28.360
<v Speaker 12>the fact that it kind of makes us feel enraged

0:36:28.400 --> 0:36:31.560
<v Speaker 12>that it throws all this information at us to try

0:36:31.560 --> 0:36:33.600
<v Speaker 12>to get us to stay engaged. Which, like a lot

0:36:33.600 --> 0:36:35.759
<v Speaker 12>of these things have to do with this advert with

0:36:35.840 --> 0:36:38.080
<v Speaker 12>the way they make money, and if they made money

0:36:38.080 --> 0:36:40.359
<v Speaker 12>in a different way, you know, maybe social media could

0:36:40.360 --> 0:36:42.799
<v Speaker 12>be a little different. They wouldn't necessarily have to have

0:36:42.840 --> 0:36:46.640
<v Speaker 12>such a you know, sort of difficult relationship with news publishers.

0:36:46.680 --> 0:36:50.200
<v Speaker 12>Right Like at the moment, Facebook and other social networks

0:36:50.239 --> 0:36:53.319
<v Speaker 12>are at pains to keep you from reading content off site,

0:36:53.320 --> 0:36:56.279
<v Speaker 12>which creates all sorts of issues with misinformation, and it

0:36:56.360 --> 0:36:59.799
<v Speaker 12>makes publishers mad and so on. If you're just paying

0:36:59.800 --> 0:37:02.120
<v Speaker 12>them monthly fee, right they could just refer you to

0:37:02.160 --> 0:37:04.279
<v Speaker 12>the best content. If you're paying them a monthly fee,

0:37:04.320 --> 0:37:06.360
<v Speaker 12>maybe they wouldn't have to, you know, cause you to

0:37:06.440 --> 0:37:09.320
<v Speaker 12>argue with your aunt, you know, for for like several

0:37:09.400 --> 0:37:12.840
<v Speaker 12>months over like.

0:37:12.400 --> 0:37:14.399
<v Speaker 3>It sounds like you have familiarity with us.

0:37:14.440 --> 0:37:15.359
<v Speaker 9>Why don't they just.

0:37:17.160 --> 0:37:20.160
<v Speaker 2>I mean, they can't give away the tracking, let the

0:37:20.200 --> 0:37:22.080
<v Speaker 2>ads come through, but get rid of the true So.

0:37:22.160 --> 0:37:25.520
<v Speaker 12>Yeah, privacy ad everybody would yeah, right that there's like

0:37:25.560 --> 0:37:27.320
<v Speaker 12>a middle ground and that's and they don't want to

0:37:27.360 --> 0:37:29.799
<v Speaker 12>do this, which is where they could just change their

0:37:29.840 --> 0:37:32.440
<v Speaker 12>advertising and make it less personalized, or or make it

0:37:32.480 --> 0:37:35.400
<v Speaker 12>not personalized at all and just show you contextual ads,

0:37:35.520 --> 0:37:37.320
<v Speaker 12>which is kind of like how Google works.

0:37:38.440 --> 0:37:40.440
<v Speaker 6>Google does a lot of personalization now at this point too.

0:37:40.560 --> 0:37:44.360
<v Speaker 12>But anyways, just change the advertising and and continue to

0:37:44.360 --> 0:37:46.719
<v Speaker 12>show you ads, and then maybe there would be a

0:37:47.480 --> 0:37:51.200
<v Speaker 12>less expensive sort of middle tier payment like five dollars

0:37:51.239 --> 0:37:52.040
<v Speaker 12>a month, which might.

0:37:51.960 --> 0:37:53.000
<v Speaker 6>Be more within reach.

0:37:53.400 --> 0:37:57.520
<v Speaker 12>Again, this the main business that they have is really good,

0:37:57.600 --> 0:38:00.400
<v Speaker 12>and so it's really a question of are they going

0:38:00.480 --> 0:38:03.239
<v Speaker 12>to be forced to do this or is there some

0:38:03.360 --> 0:38:06.719
<v Speaker 12>way where demand is much greater than we expect and

0:38:07.600 --> 0:38:10.080
<v Speaker 12>as a result, it's more economical than it would seem

0:38:10.200 --> 0:38:10.600
<v Speaker 12>at first.

0:38:10.600 --> 0:38:13.400
<v Speaker 11>Clients in a you know, if you're a product manager,

0:38:13.440 --> 0:38:15.359
<v Speaker 11>I think one way you would describe this is that

0:38:15.400 --> 0:38:18.440
<v Speaker 11>you're gonna ab test in real time and you're going

0:38:18.480 --> 0:38:20.759
<v Speaker 11>to have this europe experiment while the rest of the

0:38:20.760 --> 0:38:23.560
<v Speaker 11>world does its other way. I'm curious, do we have

0:38:23.600 --> 0:38:26.000
<v Speaker 11>any indications if this is going to change how the

0:38:26.040 --> 0:38:30.839
<v Speaker 11>algorithms implement and kind of like work your feeds, right,

0:38:30.880 --> 0:38:34.359
<v Speaker 11>because in theory, like a mainstay of what appears in

0:38:34.400 --> 0:38:37.400
<v Speaker 11>your feed are ads, and if you're suddenly changing that,

0:38:37.520 --> 0:38:39.319
<v Speaker 11>it would just leads you believe that maybe the rest

0:38:39.360 --> 0:38:40.680
<v Speaker 11>of the algorithm might change too.

0:38:40.800 --> 0:38:43.280
<v Speaker 6>Well. Sure, Yeah, and one of the arguments.

0:38:42.960 --> 0:38:44.760
<v Speaker 11>Incentivizing a different kind of engagement.

0:38:44.840 --> 0:38:47.160
<v Speaker 12>Over the years, people have asked Mark Sarker b about

0:38:47.160 --> 0:38:49.000
<v Speaker 12>this a lot, and what he says, I sort of

0:38:49.080 --> 0:38:51.960
<v Speaker 12>lose to this. The beginning is that you know, at Facebook,

0:38:52.000 --> 0:38:54.080
<v Speaker 12>at Meta, they see ads as part of the content,

0:38:54.280 --> 0:38:58.000
<v Speaker 12>just as valuable as as as your aunts or your

0:38:58.480 --> 0:39:01.160
<v Speaker 12>you know, your friends engagement photos or whatever, which I

0:39:01.160 --> 0:39:03.680
<v Speaker 12>think maybe strains a little bit of credulity. Of course,

0:39:03.719 --> 0:39:07.360
<v Speaker 12>it's something you might say if you're an advertiser. But yeah,

0:39:07.560 --> 0:39:10.760
<v Speaker 12>I mean, the the experience is going to be really different.

0:39:11.120 --> 0:39:12.520
<v Speaker 12>We don't know how it's gonna look and One of

0:39:12.520 --> 0:39:13.919
<v Speaker 12>the reasons we don't know how it's going to look

0:39:14.000 --> 0:39:18.799
<v Speaker 12>is because right now Meta is negotiating with European regulators

0:39:18.800 --> 0:39:21.280
<v Speaker 12>on this, and so they're not really saying much because

0:39:21.280 --> 0:39:22.960
<v Speaker 12>Europe has not given it, you know, the seal of

0:39:23.040 --> 0:39:26.759
<v Speaker 12>approval basically again those little notifications that you.

0:39:26.680 --> 0:39:28.560
<v Speaker 6>See when you go on websites sometimes let's.

0:39:28.400 --> 0:39:31.040
<v Speaker 12>Say like, you know, do you consent to whatever. Meta

0:39:31.040 --> 0:39:34.000
<v Speaker 12>has resisted that because I think they're worried that people

0:39:34.080 --> 0:39:37.520
<v Speaker 12>are gonna say no, I don't consent, it's gonna mess

0:39:37.560 --> 0:39:41.280
<v Speaker 12>up their business. So this is their latest basic basically

0:39:41.360 --> 0:39:44.120
<v Speaker 12>effort to get around that. If if if you're offered

0:39:44.800 --> 0:39:47.879
<v Speaker 12>a paid version that you opt out, then then you're

0:39:47.960 --> 0:39:50.399
<v Speaker 12>effe effectively opting in by it by not paying.

0:39:50.480 --> 0:39:52.520
<v Speaker 2>We talk so often about the tech and I feel

0:39:52.520 --> 0:39:55.120
<v Speaker 2>like the world in general on different in different areas

0:39:55.120 --> 0:39:57.600
<v Speaker 2>that we follow kind of what the EU is doing

0:39:57.640 --> 0:40:00.800
<v Speaker 2>or the Europeans are doing when it comes to oversight,

0:40:01.080 --> 0:40:03.560
<v Speaker 2>especially with technology or California, like if you get into

0:40:03.560 --> 0:40:05.200
<v Speaker 2>climentators of it right right.

0:40:05.120 --> 0:40:07.399
<v Speaker 3>Same with tech though with child privacy laws.

0:40:07.800 --> 0:40:11.120
<v Speaker 2>So should we assume that this is coming this way

0:40:11.440 --> 0:40:15.360
<v Speaker 2>at some point? Or I mean, like Washington, kank she

0:40:15.520 --> 0:40:17.760
<v Speaker 2>was a speaker or anything. Get things done.

0:40:18.320 --> 0:40:20.239
<v Speaker 6>You know, it's possible.

0:40:21.520 --> 0:40:25.239
<v Speaker 12>But over the last decade or so, efforts to to

0:40:25.320 --> 0:40:28.360
<v Speaker 12>really reign in tech have have not gone super well.

0:40:28.800 --> 0:40:31.319
<v Speaker 12>And there are reasons for that, some of which have

0:40:31.360 --> 0:40:33.960
<v Speaker 12>to do with the fact that, you know, Facebook is

0:40:34.000 --> 0:40:36.920
<v Speaker 12>seen by many lawmakers and and and Facebook has sort

0:40:36.920 --> 0:40:39.000
<v Speaker 12>of made an effort to present itself this way as

0:40:39.040 --> 0:40:41.719
<v Speaker 12>an America, as a national champion, and and that you know,

0:40:41.760 --> 0:40:45.839
<v Speaker 12>whenever efforts to kind of reign in meta come up,

0:40:46.280 --> 0:40:49.560
<v Speaker 12>you know, the counter argument from Mark Zuckerberg is, you know,

0:40:49.760 --> 0:40:52.960
<v Speaker 12>other social networks, primarily TikTok, this Chinese social network is

0:40:53.000 --> 0:40:53.359
<v Speaker 12>not going.

0:40:53.320 --> 0:40:54.280
<v Speaker 6>To follow these rules.

0:40:54.320 --> 0:40:56.960
<v Speaker 12>And like, you know, we as a country have to

0:40:57.040 --> 0:41:00.960
<v Speaker 12>protect our national champions, and that has to some extent worked.

0:41:01.840 --> 0:41:04.720
<v Speaker 12>I also think, you know, meta has been very effective

0:41:04.800 --> 0:41:09.319
<v Speaker 12>at just like parrying regulation and confusing things. And and

0:41:09.360 --> 0:41:12.240
<v Speaker 12>the truth is, the last point I'll make is like, yeah,

0:41:12.320 --> 0:41:16.400
<v Speaker 12>we can all sort of say we don't like Facebook

0:41:17.320 --> 0:41:19.319
<v Speaker 12>or we don't like seeing ads on Facebook, but a

0:41:19.320 --> 0:41:21.480
<v Speaker 12>lot of people love this thing, and and you know,

0:41:21.600 --> 0:41:24.239
<v Speaker 12>hundreds of millions of people use it. And if you said, hey,

0:41:24.760 --> 0:41:26.960
<v Speaker 12>we're gonna we're gonna pass this new law and make

0:41:27.000 --> 0:41:29.640
<v Speaker 12>your social media this this thing that you use to

0:41:29.840 --> 0:41:31.879
<v Speaker 12>to talk to your friends, and sure you make fun

0:41:31.880 --> 0:41:33.480
<v Speaker 12>of it a lot. We're gonna make that now cost

0:41:33.520 --> 0:41:35.439
<v Speaker 12>twenty dollars a month, or now cost ten dollars a month,

0:41:35.480 --> 0:41:37.040
<v Speaker 12>or now you have to pay any amount of money.

0:41:37.160 --> 0:41:38.560
<v Speaker 6>People are gonna be mad about that.

0:41:38.560 --> 0:41:40.960
<v Speaker 12>That's not you know, that's not necessarily gonna be popular.

0:41:41.040 --> 0:41:45.920
<v Speaker 12>And yet and yeah, and so you know, the tech companies,

0:41:45.960 --> 0:41:48.600
<v Speaker 12>the big tech companies and and Meta in particular, have

0:41:48.680 --> 0:41:52.400
<v Speaker 12>been really really good at kind of you know, resisting

0:41:52.480 --> 0:41:55.120
<v Speaker 12>efforts even even during the Trump presidency where he was

0:41:55.239 --> 0:41:58.239
<v Speaker 12>very hostile to to Silicon Valley in certain ways to

0:41:58.360 --> 0:41:58.839
<v Speaker 12>rain them in.

0:41:58.880 --> 0:42:00.000
<v Speaker 6>And I'd expect that to continue.

0:42:00.400 --> 0:42:03.799
<v Speaker 3>Well, Max, oh well, I'll just go ahead, Joe.

0:42:03.920 --> 0:42:05.799
<v Speaker 6>One more thing. What's the timeline for all of this?

0:42:05.920 --> 0:42:10.719
<v Speaker 11>Because the EU decision was out over the summer, right,

0:42:10.760 --> 0:42:12.120
<v Speaker 11>So what's how does this unfold?

0:42:12.320 --> 0:42:15.000
<v Speaker 12>We think it's it's a matter of months, maybe even sooner.

0:42:15.080 --> 0:42:17.480
<v Speaker 6>So I would expect to happen.

0:42:17.239 --> 0:42:20.960
<v Speaker 12>Before the end of the year, although if regulators didn't

0:42:21.000 --> 0:42:22.480
<v Speaker 12>go along with it, I don't know. I suppose it

0:42:22.480 --> 0:42:25.840
<v Speaker 12>could drag out further because basically, like the regulators have

0:42:25.920 --> 0:42:29.760
<v Speaker 12>to say that this is, you know, an acceptable way

0:42:29.800 --> 0:42:32.520
<v Speaker 12>to address the court's ruling, and if they said it wasn't,

0:42:32.560 --> 0:42:34.960
<v Speaker 12>then you know, Meta would have to come back and

0:42:34.960 --> 0:42:35.759
<v Speaker 12>think of something else.

0:42:36.040 --> 0:42:37.840
<v Speaker 3>Hey, Max, very briefly, just in the last minute that

0:42:37.880 --> 0:42:40.320
<v Speaker 3>we have, you make the point that Meta also sells

0:42:40.320 --> 0:42:44.200
<v Speaker 3>some hardware, and after all, it's called meta platforms. Would

0:42:44.239 --> 0:42:48.839
<v Speaker 3>they like to sell enough Oculus Quest or Meta Quest

0:42:48.840 --> 0:42:52.319
<v Speaker 3>threes to offset significantly the portion of revenue they got

0:42:52.360 --> 0:42:53.000
<v Speaker 3>from advertising.

0:42:53.200 --> 0:42:55.520
<v Speaker 6>I don't think. I don't think that's the business model.

0:42:55.520 --> 0:42:59.359
<v Speaker 12>I think the business model is to sell these headsets,

0:42:59.480 --> 0:43:02.640
<v Speaker 12>probably you know, at break even or maybe even a loss.

0:43:02.680 --> 0:43:06.200
<v Speaker 12>I mean the division Reality Labs, which the main thing

0:43:06.200 --> 0:43:08.200
<v Speaker 12>they do is make this these headsets, has lost something

0:43:08.239 --> 0:43:11.279
<v Speaker 12>like forty billion dollars over the last couple of.

0:43:11.239 --> 0:43:12.719
<v Speaker 3>Years, a lot of money for face.

0:43:12.880 --> 0:43:14.960
<v Speaker 12>So yeah, I don't think this is like necessarily a

0:43:15.000 --> 0:43:18.359
<v Speaker 12>money making thing. And when you listen to how Mark

0:43:18.440 --> 0:43:21.200
<v Speaker 12>Zuckerberg talks about it, it's more about creating a new

0:43:21.280 --> 0:43:25.000
<v Speaker 12>platform to kind of apply the old business model to

0:43:25.440 --> 0:43:27.960
<v Speaker 12>and I think in certain ways, right that's the genius

0:43:28.000 --> 0:43:31.800
<v Speaker 12>of this, of this metaverse thing, if you really squint

0:43:31.920 --> 0:43:34.359
<v Speaker 12>and look for it, is that maybe they could take

0:43:34.400 --> 0:43:38.319
<v Speaker 12>the personalized advertising business, the amazing dominance that Facebook has

0:43:38.360 --> 0:43:40.600
<v Speaker 12>over certain parts of the smartphone and bring it to

0:43:40.640 --> 0:43:42.400
<v Speaker 12>a new computing platform. And if they did that, of

0:43:42.400 --> 0:43:44.080
<v Speaker 12>course it'd be an even more valuable company.

0:43:44.480 --> 0:43:50.280
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, where's the decimal brain? Another in their favor, great story, Bloomberg.

0:43:50.920 --> 0:43:54.320
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg's a Maxchaffkin of course, with Jill Weber and this story.

0:43:54.400 --> 0:43:56.720
<v Speaker 2>It will be in the new issue of BusinessWeek magazine

0:43:56.760 --> 0:43:59.640
<v Speaker 2>out on Thursdays, on newsstands, already online and on the

0:43:59.680 --> 0:44:00.480
<v Speaker 2>bloom Burg.

0:44:03.880 --> 0:44:07.040
<v Speaker 1>Mark Journal.

0:44:08.040 --> 0:44:09.040
<v Speaker 2>How about you let me drive?

0:44:09.280 --> 0:44:11.319
<v Speaker 6>Oh no, no, no, no, who's going to drive?

0:44:11.560 --> 0:44:15.360
<v Speaker 1>Hory please?

0:44:15.800 --> 0:44:16.560
<v Speaker 2>I want to drive.

0:44:18.800 --> 0:44:19.720
<v Speaker 9>It's a good question.

0:44:23.520 --> 0:44:28.279
<v Speaker 1>This is the Drive to the Clothes Well by Don

0:44:28.680 --> 0:44:29.920
<v Speaker 1>on Bluebirg Radio.

0:44:30.840 --> 0:44:34.080
<v Speaker 2>All right, everybody, just hap about about eighteen minutes left

0:44:34.080 --> 0:44:36.360
<v Speaker 2>in today's trading session, getting ready to wrap up the

0:44:36.440 --> 0:44:39.719
<v Speaker 2>Monday Trey. We've got stocks, they're up for the day.

0:44:39.880 --> 0:44:45.080
<v Speaker 2>It's really interesting to see. I don't know, right, uh,

0:44:45.120 --> 0:44:49.800
<v Speaker 2>And just some calm, if you will in the markets

0:44:49.840 --> 0:44:51.680
<v Speaker 2>despite all the geopolitical stuff.

0:44:51.920 --> 0:44:55.160
<v Speaker 3>I can't explain it, but maybe maybe we know someone

0:44:55.160 --> 0:44:58.440
<v Speaker 3>who can. Col Smeade's CEO and portfolio manager at Smeedy

0:44:58.480 --> 0:45:01.040
<v Speaker 3>Capital Management. He joins us on Zoom from Phoenix, Arizona.

0:45:01.440 --> 0:45:03.919
<v Speaker 3>We should know, Carol. The Smeat Value Funds got about

0:45:03.920 --> 0:45:06.239
<v Speaker 3>four point five billion dollars in assets under management. It's

0:45:06.239 --> 0:45:08.279
<v Speaker 3>outperformed it's peers over the past five years, returning an

0:45:08.280 --> 0:45:11.080
<v Speaker 3>average annually more than eleven percent. This year the fund

0:45:11.080 --> 0:45:12.600
<v Speaker 3>those up just about two percent.

0:45:13.440 --> 0:45:16.000
<v Speaker 2>Hey, Cole, good to have you back with us. It's

0:45:16.040 --> 0:45:19.719
<v Speaker 2>an interesting world. First macro and then we love to

0:45:19.719 --> 0:45:22.600
<v Speaker 2>talk names with you, but the macro environment, it does

0:45:22.640 --> 0:45:25.480
<v Speaker 2>feel like there's some comm certainly on the US equity trade,

0:45:26.239 --> 0:45:28.359
<v Speaker 2>despite you know, our focus on what's going on in

0:45:28.400 --> 0:45:30.600
<v Speaker 2>Israel and elsewhere in the world. There's a lot of

0:45:30.680 --> 0:45:33.600
<v Speaker 2>questions out there on so many different levels. How do

0:45:33.680 --> 0:45:34.920
<v Speaker 2>you see the macro environment?

0:45:36.600 --> 0:45:37.360
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, Carol, I was.

0:45:37.560 --> 0:45:39.880
<v Speaker 7>I was rewatching for probably the ten time of my life,

0:45:40.000 --> 0:45:41.840
<v Speaker 7>gone with the wind yesterday. It was just kind of

0:45:41.840 --> 0:45:43.799
<v Speaker 7>one of those things I did on a Sunday. And

0:45:43.880 --> 0:45:46.919
<v Speaker 7>I actually think mister Market's a lot like scarlettle Haare

0:45:47.840 --> 0:45:49.920
<v Speaker 7>you know she said fiddle d d You know, all

0:45:49.920 --> 0:45:54.120
<v Speaker 7>this talk of wars ruining my spring party. That's what

0:45:54.280 --> 0:45:56.440
<v Speaker 7>equity investors are treating as it's not that big of

0:45:56.480 --> 0:45:59.400
<v Speaker 7>a deal. They also are treating what's going on in

0:45:59.400 --> 0:46:01.480
<v Speaker 7>the bond mark with the rise in the ten year

0:46:01.520 --> 0:46:03.680
<v Speaker 7>yield and the thirty year yield as though it's really

0:46:03.719 --> 0:46:05.239
<v Speaker 7>not that big of a deal to them, much like

0:46:05.239 --> 0:46:08.399
<v Speaker 7>Scarlett did prior to the Civil War breaking out, And

0:46:08.440 --> 0:46:10.600
<v Speaker 7>that's a lot of danger. It just shows you how

0:46:10.640 --> 0:46:12.879
<v Speaker 7>the psychology really hasn't woken up to the new world.

0:46:12.920 --> 0:46:15.759
<v Speaker 7>We're in the post pandemic world where obviously things are

0:46:15.760 --> 0:46:18.720
<v Speaker 7>not given and cheap money is gone. And so the question,

0:46:18.800 --> 0:46:21.640
<v Speaker 7>to your point is when will people rectify those things

0:46:21.640 --> 0:46:23.640
<v Speaker 7>in their mind. We're just not there yet.

0:46:24.160 --> 0:46:25.800
<v Speaker 3>So what do you think of where we are in

0:46:25.840 --> 0:46:27.160
<v Speaker 3>the S and P fift Are you saying the S

0:46:27.200 --> 0:46:31.040
<v Speaker 3>and P five hundred inequity investors today are not taking

0:46:31.080 --> 0:46:32.800
<v Speaker 3>into account how many headwinds we face.

0:46:34.480 --> 0:46:37.520
<v Speaker 7>It's a great question, Tim, and since we're since we're

0:46:37.520 --> 0:46:39.920
<v Speaker 7>of the same kind of cohort millennial wise, I think

0:46:39.960 --> 0:46:43.960
<v Speaker 7>about it like this. You know, in our lifetimes, are

0:46:43.960 --> 0:46:47.120
<v Speaker 7>we going to see as cheap and super easy of

0:46:47.200 --> 0:46:48.120
<v Speaker 7>money as we had?

0:46:48.680 --> 0:46:50.879
<v Speaker 5>And in just a cute, little.

0:46:50.560 --> 0:46:54.640
<v Speaker 7>Adorable bear market in thoughts of twenty two percent, and

0:46:54.680 --> 0:46:58.239
<v Speaker 7>that's how you clean up major euphorias in capital markets. No,

0:46:58.640 --> 0:47:01.520
<v Speaker 7>but it never ends like it always ends in having

0:47:01.520 --> 0:47:05.240
<v Speaker 7>to really take the psychology to dire straits where people

0:47:05.360 --> 0:47:07.960
<v Speaker 7>question whether they want to own stocks again. So, you know,

0:47:07.960 --> 0:47:09.680
<v Speaker 7>we look at this is this is kind of like

0:47:09.840 --> 0:47:11.600
<v Speaker 7>this was just the next part of the bear market.

0:47:11.840 --> 0:47:14.040
<v Speaker 7>People got really excited about a few companies again and

0:47:14.080 --> 0:47:16.319
<v Speaker 7>took the S and P higher while most stocks are

0:47:16.320 --> 0:47:19.680
<v Speaker 7>doing poorly. And our best guests again, you know, this

0:47:19.719 --> 0:47:21.359
<v Speaker 7>is not where we make our money, but our best

0:47:21.400 --> 0:47:23.600
<v Speaker 7>guess is you know, in the end, you know, peak

0:47:23.640 --> 0:47:25.840
<v Speaker 7>to trough, the SMP will probably have to lose at

0:47:25.960 --> 0:47:28.240
<v Speaker 7>least thirty, if not thirty five percent of its market

0:47:28.360 --> 0:47:30.960
<v Speaker 7>value before you clean up the psychology.

0:47:31.560 --> 0:47:33.200
<v Speaker 3>When over what time period?

0:47:35.000 --> 0:47:35.840
<v Speaker 5>We just got to do it?

0:47:35.960 --> 0:47:37.920
<v Speaker 7>Others, we're to your point, dam We're we're a little

0:47:37.920 --> 0:47:40.560
<v Speaker 7>over a year into the bear market and a twenty

0:47:40.600 --> 0:47:44.200
<v Speaker 7>two percent decline didn't cause people to change their mind.

0:47:44.400 --> 0:47:46.680
<v Speaker 5>You know, ask the question, are we in a new era?

0:47:47.360 --> 0:47:50.040
<v Speaker 7>Whether we're talking you know, the geopolitical risks that have

0:47:50.080 --> 0:47:53.319
<v Speaker 7>now woken up I mean to invert that. You know,

0:47:53.400 --> 0:47:55.600
<v Speaker 7>we know that this as you guys do that this

0:47:55.840 --> 0:47:58.560
<v Speaker 7>benefit that the S ANDP is getting is a very.

0:47:58.320 --> 0:48:00.319
<v Speaker 5>You know, very narrow group of stocks.

0:48:00.640 --> 0:48:04.279
<v Speaker 7>In comparison, the businesses that benefit from what's going on

0:48:04.520 --> 0:48:06.840
<v Speaker 7>in Israel in the last week is a lot of

0:48:06.840 --> 0:48:08.680
<v Speaker 7>oil companies, and yet those are a tiny part of

0:48:08.680 --> 0:48:09.120
<v Speaker 7>the SMP.

0:48:09.600 --> 0:48:10.360
<v Speaker 5>So you kind of have to.

0:48:10.320 --> 0:48:12.880
<v Speaker 7>Ask the question who wins who loses in this new regime,

0:48:13.360 --> 0:48:16.280
<v Speaker 7>and our investors really pricing in the winners and losers correctly,

0:48:16.360 --> 0:48:17.560
<v Speaker 7>We don't think so at all.

0:48:18.280 --> 0:48:22.720
<v Speaker 2>So you're basically saying, and you expect equities will fall

0:48:22.760 --> 0:48:26.399
<v Speaker 2>substantially from here or they need to fall to kind

0:48:26.400 --> 0:48:28.400
<v Speaker 2>of fully reflect maybe the macro.

0:48:30.040 --> 0:48:32.120
<v Speaker 7>Well, I would say, when I say equities, I'm talking

0:48:32.120 --> 0:48:34.479
<v Speaker 7>about the S and P five hundred, So to your point, Carol,

0:48:34.760 --> 0:48:36.760
<v Speaker 7>I'm talking about the composition of what it owns.

0:48:37.480 --> 0:48:39.600
<v Speaker 5>Does that mean all stocks have to do poorly? No,

0:48:39.680 --> 0:48:40.160
<v Speaker 5>not at all.

0:48:40.360 --> 0:48:42.200
<v Speaker 7>Just like if you look at the equal way data

0:48:42.239 --> 0:48:44.000
<v Speaker 7>of the russele too, they're doing much worse than the

0:48:44.080 --> 0:48:46.800
<v Speaker 7>S and P five hundred is from a total return perspective.

0:48:47.200 --> 0:48:49.840
<v Speaker 7>So it just shows you, you know, the exciting stocks

0:48:49.920 --> 0:48:52.960
<v Speaker 7>the big market caps out there that has to struggle

0:48:53.239 --> 0:48:56.200
<v Speaker 7>for the SMP to do poorly, and so it's you know,

0:48:56.239 --> 0:48:58.359
<v Speaker 7>you go out to shoot five or ten stocks out back,

0:48:58.400 --> 0:49:00.000
<v Speaker 7>and you're going to change the SMP for a long time.

0:49:00.280 --> 0:49:02.239
<v Speaker 2>All right, So let's talk about what's in your portfolio.

0:49:02.400 --> 0:49:05.359
<v Speaker 2>You do have a bunch of energy names. As of

0:49:05.560 --> 0:49:07.600
<v Speaker 2>the end of August, I was looking at the whole

0:49:07.640 --> 0:49:11.239
<v Speaker 2>things that we saw. Occidental was in their Knaco, Phillips

0:49:11.320 --> 0:49:14.760
<v Speaker 2>was in there. I don't see Shell in that list,

0:49:14.880 --> 0:49:17.000
<v Speaker 2>and we had that stock hitting an inter day high

0:49:17.000 --> 0:49:19.719
<v Speaker 2>over in London today. Of course, they just bought Pioneer,

0:49:19.920 --> 0:49:23.120
<v Speaker 2>massive sixty billion dollar bet on Shelle. It's a big

0:49:23.160 --> 0:49:25.800
<v Speaker 2>reminder that fossil fuels, at least from the big integrated

0:49:25.840 --> 0:49:27.960
<v Speaker 2>oil companies, they're still betting on it that it's going

0:49:28.000 --> 0:49:31.800
<v Speaker 2>to be around for a while. But why not Shell.

0:49:31.880 --> 0:49:35.480
<v Speaker 7>Well, so Shell chill has been coming out of what

0:49:35.520 --> 0:49:37.879
<v Speaker 7>I call the European major problem, which is.

0:49:37.760 --> 0:49:40.240
<v Speaker 5>That you wanted to have a lot of fun at the.

0:49:39.880 --> 0:49:43.600
<v Speaker 7>Parisian cocktail parties and you know parties in Europe and

0:49:43.840 --> 0:49:47.000
<v Speaker 7>selling oil and gas stories is not what the European

0:49:47.040 --> 0:49:49.759
<v Speaker 7>majors have been interested in in comparison, you know, we're

0:49:49.760 --> 0:49:52.279
<v Speaker 7>starting to see like the the the Exxon.

0:49:52.040 --> 0:49:54.160
<v Speaker 5>Mobiles out there wanting to do their Pioneer deal.

0:49:54.280 --> 0:49:56.760
<v Speaker 7>So if the majors wake up wanting to do deals,

0:49:56.840 --> 0:49:59.240
<v Speaker 7>I think we have a very different world and the energy,

0:50:00.040 --> 0:50:02.040
<v Speaker 7>you know space, because there's a lot of producers that

0:50:02.080 --> 0:50:05.040
<v Speaker 7>could be acquired for attracted multiples on an all stock

0:50:05.120 --> 0:50:08.080
<v Speaker 7>deal like is going on with the Exon Pioneer deal.

0:50:08.200 --> 0:50:11.080
<v Speaker 7>So if Shell wants to become a US company like

0:50:11.080 --> 0:50:13.719
<v Speaker 7>they flirted with in the Financial Times a few months ago,

0:50:14.160 --> 0:50:16.520
<v Speaker 7>they could be a deal maker. At this time, it

0:50:16.520 --> 0:50:18.839
<v Speaker 7>looks like VP and Total are the less likely one

0:50:18.880 --> 0:50:20.520
<v Speaker 7>to do that. But again, I think you have to

0:50:20.560 --> 0:50:22.279
<v Speaker 7>compare to the return on equity. If you look at Shell,

0:50:22.360 --> 0:50:25.400
<v Speaker 7>it's a mid teens returning equity story. It's trading cheaper

0:50:25.440 --> 0:50:27.600
<v Speaker 7>than some of the other names among the American majors,

0:50:27.880 --> 0:50:29.840
<v Speaker 7>but that's because they're also wasting a good amount of

0:50:29.840 --> 0:50:32.000
<v Speaker 7>money and they're renewables. That's why their returns are not

0:50:32.040 --> 0:50:33.840
<v Speaker 7>twenty percent return in equity.

0:50:33.880 --> 0:50:36.280
<v Speaker 2>Now, and forgive me, as you said, it was Exxon

0:50:36.480 --> 0:50:40.240
<v Speaker 2>buying Pioneer, which is what I meant to say. Interesting, Hey, Cole, Let's.

0:50:40.120 --> 0:50:44.560
<v Speaker 3>Go from oil to retail, because you're a big you guys,

0:50:44.600 --> 0:50:47.200
<v Speaker 3>I got a big position in Target, down twenty five

0:50:47.239 --> 0:50:50.279
<v Speaker 3>percent so far this year. You have a market value

0:50:50.280 --> 0:50:52.640
<v Speaker 3>of one hundreds of millions of dollars invested in Target.

0:50:52.680 --> 0:50:54.480
<v Speaker 3>Give me your thoughts on Target, especially in the wake

0:50:54.520 --> 0:50:56.680
<v Speaker 3>of what they did with closing stores what they said

0:50:56.760 --> 0:50:57.360
<v Speaker 3>was due to shrink.

0:50:58.960 --> 0:51:02.840
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, some of that is just what's gone on in society.

0:51:02.840 --> 0:51:04.880
<v Speaker 7>To your point about you know, the I'll call it,

0:51:05.080 --> 0:51:07.320
<v Speaker 7>I'll call it vandalism, I'll call it, you know, crime,

0:51:07.400 --> 0:51:09.840
<v Speaker 7>et cetera. But I think another thing that has to

0:51:09.880 --> 0:51:13.680
<v Speaker 7>be said is this got here not by accident, but

0:51:13.719 --> 0:51:16.400
<v Speaker 7>by also leadership. So, for example, I know with what

0:51:16.440 --> 0:51:18.640
<v Speaker 7>the culture wars has gone on at Target, there's been

0:51:18.680 --> 0:51:21.880
<v Speaker 7>talk of, you know what, what certain groups felt they

0:51:21.880 --> 0:51:22.840
<v Speaker 7>were hurt by and whatnot.

0:51:22.880 --> 0:51:24.959
<v Speaker 5>I think you also have to look at the employees though, too.

0:51:25.360 --> 0:51:27.600
<v Speaker 7>So you have all this crime going on in you know,

0:51:27.719 --> 0:51:31.320
<v Speaker 7>particularly urban Target centers, and then you add the culture

0:51:31.360 --> 0:51:34.160
<v Speaker 7>war into where these employees are getting harassed by things

0:51:34.160 --> 0:51:36.360
<v Speaker 7>that they have no control over. I think it's a

0:51:36.400 --> 0:51:39.640
<v Speaker 7>big mark against the current management. I'd say Brian Cornell's

0:51:39.680 --> 0:51:41.600
<v Speaker 7>made a lot of missteps. If you look at some

0:51:41.680 --> 0:51:43.600
<v Speaker 7>of the culture war stuff that I'm commenting on, you

0:51:43.680 --> 0:51:45.800
<v Speaker 7>just don't see that talked about with Walmart. So I

0:51:45.800 --> 0:51:49.520
<v Speaker 7>think they've taken unique risks that have disadvantaged them in

0:51:49.600 --> 0:51:52.000
<v Speaker 7>this season. At the same time they benefited so much

0:51:52.000 --> 0:51:54.400
<v Speaker 7>from COVID that I think some of this is also

0:51:54.560 --> 0:51:57.839
<v Speaker 7>just you know, reacting to a more normal environment. They're

0:51:57.840 --> 0:51:59.680
<v Speaker 7>not selling as many TVs as they did a year

0:51:59.719 --> 0:52:02.160
<v Speaker 7>or two years ago, and those are just big ticket

0:52:02.280 --> 0:52:05.759
<v Speaker 7>price items for Target. So we look at Target, you know,

0:52:05.760 --> 0:52:09.160
<v Speaker 7>it's a twenty five to thirty percent returning equity story

0:52:09.400 --> 0:52:11.160
<v Speaker 7>that Tim they were earning as much as forty to

0:52:11.200 --> 0:52:13.799
<v Speaker 7>fifty percent returning equity, which just wasn't sustainable.

0:52:13.920 --> 0:52:15.560
<v Speaker 5>They were over earning in a lot of respects.

0:52:15.680 --> 0:52:17.080
<v Speaker 2>All right, Can I leave it on that note, Hey,

0:52:17.160 --> 0:52:19.359
<v Speaker 2>I Cale, thank you so much for joining us. Kill

0:52:19.400 --> 0:52:23.120
<v Speaker 2>Smed CEO and portfolio manager Smeed Capital Management joining us

0:52:23.120 --> 0:52:25.479
<v Speaker 2>on zoom from Phoenix, Arizona.

0:52:25.600 --> 0:52:30.239
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0:52:30.400 --> 0:52:34.120
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