WEBVTT - Should You Be Able to Bet On the Election? 0:00:15.604 --> 0:00:28.804 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, our show about making 0:00:28.844 --> 0:00:32.204 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova and. 0:00:32.084 --> 0:00:35.564 I'm Nate Silver. Today we're going to be talking, as 0:00:35.604 --> 0:00:38.804 you might expect, more about the elections. There's been a 0:00:38.804 --> 0:00:42.004 lot of frankly dark and disturbing news. There's also been 0:00:42.084 --> 0:00:43.844 a lot of polling since the debate. We'll tell you 0:00:43.884 --> 0:00:46.124 more about what it says and where our forecast is. 0:00:46.644 --> 0:00:50.644 We'll also talk about Calshi and prediction markets and betting 0:00:50.804 --> 0:00:54.524 on political outcomes in the United States. There's been some 0:00:54.564 --> 0:00:57.604 big news on that last week. And finally, we're going 0:00:57.684 --> 0:01:00.484 to take it to a more personal place and talk 0:01:00.524 --> 0:01:04.084 about the saga that I've been having with air conditioning 0:01:04.164 --> 0:01:11.404 in the midst of a New York City summer. Let's 0:01:11.404 --> 0:01:16.324 start off with the election models. Trump's assassination, the debates. 0:01:16.444 --> 0:01:20.164 All of this stuff has happened since we last spoke. 0:01:20.204 --> 0:01:23.204 I mean, the debates happened the day before we last spoke, 0:01:23.484 --> 0:01:27.124 but none of that data had been incorporated into the models. 0:01:27.244 --> 0:01:30.644 There were no quality polls out. What has changed. Have 0:01:30.764 --> 0:01:34.924 we seen quality polls in the last week. Where do 0:01:35.004 --> 0:01:40.684 the data stand now? How have your election model predictions shifted. 0:01:41.244 --> 0:01:43.684 Are you implying that data is plural. 0:01:43.324 --> 0:01:45.524 Maria, data are plural name? 0:01:45.644 --> 0:01:48.884 Oh my god, this is It's been a great run. 0:01:49.004 --> 0:01:51.324 Thank you for listening to risky business. But we have 0:01:51.444 --> 0:01:53.244 irreconcilable differences. 0:01:52.804 --> 0:01:55.284 And Michelle is singular name. 0:01:56.044 --> 0:02:02.644 God. Look, before the debate, Harris was ahead in national 0:02:02.644 --> 0:02:07.044 polls by about two percentage points, and now she appears 0:02:07.044 --> 0:02:10.404 to be ahead by roughly three percentage points. And there 0:02:10.484 --> 0:02:13.004 has been quite a bit of high quality data at 0:02:13.004 --> 0:02:17.284 the national level. Why is it number important? Well, the 0:02:17.324 --> 0:02:21.604 electoral college bias, according to our forecast, Silver Bolton forecast 0:02:22.364 --> 0:02:24.404 favors Trump by about two and a half points, so 0:02:24.484 --> 0:02:26.804 kind of the point spread, as if Harris wins the 0:02:26.844 --> 0:02:28.924 popular vote by two and a half points or more, 0:02:29.284 --> 0:02:31.604 she's a favorite in electoral college. If she wins by 0:02:31.684 --> 0:02:33.524 less than two and a half points, she probably doesn't 0:02:33.524 --> 0:02:35.444 get over the finish line in states like Pennsylvania. So 0:02:35.524 --> 0:02:39.804 therefore this is a good development for her. There's other 0:02:39.884 --> 0:02:43.444 stuff too. The question is how sustainable is this if 0:02:43.484 --> 0:02:45.244 you get like a short term bounce, So maybe the 0:02:45.284 --> 0:02:49.044 news cycle already moves on to things like this other 0:02:49.124 --> 0:02:54.324 attempt on Trump's life or conspiracy theories about what Haitian 0:02:54.364 --> 0:02:58.444 immigrants are doing. Then we'll see. But in contrast to 0:02:58.484 --> 0:03:01.204 this kind of labor day period where she was getting 0:03:01.244 --> 0:03:03.604 a lot of mediocre data, like from the New York Times, 0:03:04.524 --> 0:03:07.004 this is now back on track for basically a toss 0:03:07.044 --> 0:03:07.484 of election. 0:03:08.404 --> 0:03:09.964 Well that's good news, I mean. 0:03:10.004 --> 0:03:11.964 If you're if you're a Harris fan. 0:03:11.924 --> 0:03:15.444 If as people know I am, it's good news for Harris. 0:03:16.324 --> 0:03:20.524 But where are we in terms of the poll cycle? Right? 0:03:20.564 --> 0:03:23.444 Do you expect that this is kind of that the 0:03:23.564 --> 0:03:26.044 highest quality polls have already come out, or do you 0:03:26.084 --> 0:03:29.964 expect that we're going to be updating this significantly in 0:03:30.004 --> 0:03:31.004 the coming week or two. 0:03:31.444 --> 0:03:33.844 Now, what happens after a big event typically is the 0:03:33.924 --> 0:03:37.404 national polls go first. If you're going to conduct one 0:03:37.444 --> 0:03:39.284 pole and you do a national poll first, and we're 0:03:39.324 --> 0:03:41.444 kind of well, we're waiting over the next week or 0:03:41.444 --> 0:03:45.204 two to populate infill with with some of the higher 0:03:45.244 --> 0:03:50.844 quality state polling data. Look, earlier this month, Harris was 0:03:50.844 --> 0:03:55.164 getting some pretty mediocre numbers in state polls. You know 0:03:55.204 --> 0:03:57.044 she got for example, Suffolk is a good pole. Souf 0:03:57.244 --> 0:04:00.324 University had her up three in Pennsylvania, but a lot 0:04:00.364 --> 0:04:03.764 more polls have had Pennsylvania, Michigan and whatnot basically a 0:04:03.844 --> 0:04:08.004 tie recently. So so we'll see, you know, if if 0:04:08.044 --> 0:04:10.404 those state polls also improved for her by a point 0:04:10.444 --> 0:04:12.844 or two, that we might be at a point where 0:04:12.964 --> 0:04:16.484 where you would say the race leans slightly toward her. 0:04:17.764 --> 0:04:19.644 If they don't emote, might go back to saying that 0:04:19.764 --> 0:04:21.724 race leans slightly toward Trump. I know it's frustrating. I 0:04:21.764 --> 0:04:23.684 wish I could like have a crystal ball here and 0:04:23.724 --> 0:04:27.484 predict what they would say. But that electoral college gap 0:04:27.564 --> 0:04:31.084 is like, I think it's counterintuitive for people if you're 0:04:31.164 --> 0:04:34.044 used to seeing headlines saying Harris ahead, Harris ahead, tye, 0:04:34.084 --> 0:04:38.804 Harris ahead, lots of reporting the national polls again, Biden 0:04:38.844 --> 0:04:41.644 won the popular vote by four and a half points 0:04:41.684 --> 0:04:44.684 in twenty twenty and just barely won the electoral college 0:04:44.724 --> 0:04:47.404 by by you know, a point or so in Wisconsin. 0:04:47.764 --> 0:04:49.764 Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by two point one 0:04:49.764 --> 0:04:53.124 points in twenty sixteen and lost the electoral college plust 0:04:53.164 --> 0:04:56.204 all these mid Western states, for example, So you can't 0:04:56.244 --> 0:05:00.164 look at these national polls and feel too complacent if 0:05:00.204 --> 0:05:02.244 you're if you're a Democrat, and. 0:05:02.204 --> 0:05:05.244 Are we still looking at Pennsylvania as kind of this 0:05:05.244 --> 0:05:08.844 this benchmark, because you have written about the Pennsylvania polls 0:05:08.844 --> 0:05:11.204 in the last few days, so I'm kind of curious 0:05:11.244 --> 0:05:14.564 to see where we stand there. You just briefly mentioned it, 0:05:14.644 --> 0:05:16.684 but I'd love to kind of go into a little 0:05:16.684 --> 0:05:20.564 bit more detail because you've also you've also had some 0:05:21.524 --> 0:05:25.644 of those paths to victory that might not seem intuitive, 0:05:25.804 --> 0:05:29.124 Like you had one post called Alaska Alasco lastar Alaska, 0:05:29.764 --> 0:05:32.524 which I thought was quite funny. But can you elaborate 0:05:32.564 --> 0:05:34.164 a little bit and can we talk about kind of 0:05:34.204 --> 0:05:38.484 the first Pennsylvania and then what different paths to victory 0:05:38.604 --> 0:05:41.804 might look like if we don't, you know, if we 0:05:41.884 --> 0:05:44.764 stay within this margin and don't see Harris improving. 0:05:46.164 --> 0:05:49.404 Yeah, so Pennsylvania is the most likely what we call 0:05:49.444 --> 0:05:52.164 tipping point state. The tipping point state. The short version 0:05:52.644 --> 0:05:54.004 is it's a state that gives you the two hundred 0:05:54.004 --> 0:05:56.684 and seventieth electoral vote. That's the state that's the number 0:05:56.684 --> 0:06:01.444 that guarantees you a victory in electoral college. A longer version, 0:06:01.524 --> 0:06:03.724 if you line up all the states from most blue 0:06:04.244 --> 0:06:06.484 to most red and add up the electoral votes, that's 0:06:06.524 --> 0:06:09.404 where you get over the finish line. But basically it's 0:06:09.524 --> 0:06:11.644 the decisive state about a third of the time in 0:06:11.684 --> 0:06:14.164 our model, but it's not alone. In that department. There's 0:06:14.164 --> 0:06:16.764 about a thirty percent chance that Pennsylvania is a tipping 0:06:16.764 --> 0:06:19.044 point state, which means there's a seventy percent chance that 0:06:19.084 --> 0:06:22.644 it isn't Harris unlike Biden. I mean, Biden kind of 0:06:22.684 --> 0:06:27.684 had to win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan very narrow path, whereas 0:06:27.684 --> 0:06:31.164 Harris has often begetting their numbers in Georgia. For example, 0:06:31.644 --> 0:06:33.764 North Carolina is a state that comes up quite a bit. 0:06:33.804 --> 0:06:37.364 Those states both have sixteen electoral votes, Pennsylvania has nineteen, 0:06:37.564 --> 0:06:40.084 so you can't quite substitute one for the other. But 0:06:40.124 --> 0:06:44.924 there are combinations that work North Carolina plus Nevada, or 0:06:45.004 --> 0:06:49.604 North Carolina plus Arizona, Nevada Nevada, or if you want 0:06:49.644 --> 0:06:55.404 to get really creative, Nevada plus Arizona plus Alaska, where 0:06:55.404 --> 0:06:57.924 a poll came out this weekend showing Harris down by 0:06:58.564 --> 0:06:59.524 only four points. 0:07:01.524 --> 0:07:05.204 When is the last time a Democrat has taken Alaska nineteen. 0:07:04.924 --> 0:07:09.404 Sixty four, LBJ. I believe one Alaska people actually thought 0:07:10.324 --> 0:07:13.684 when Alaska and Hawaii enter the country the Union, that 0:07:13.884 --> 0:07:16.404 Alaska would be democratic and Hawaii would be Republican and 0:07:16.404 --> 0:07:21.204 the reverse has been true instead fascinating, but Alaska has 0:07:21.644 --> 0:07:26.484 a Democrat representative named Mary Peltola who is a lone 0:07:26.724 --> 0:07:30.164 US House or presentative for the state at the state 0:07:30.244 --> 0:07:33.804 legislature level. It's kind of by partisan. It's population is 0:07:33.884 --> 0:07:36.364 changing a lot about you know, four percent of the 0:07:36.364 --> 0:07:40.404 population moves into Alaska every year. It's a transient workforce. 0:07:40.404 --> 0:07:43.684 I don't know if you're getting the expats from California 0:07:43.764 --> 0:07:47.524 and stuff like that. So Harris does have more paths, 0:07:47.764 --> 0:07:52.804 but there's not any one safe path. Let's also remember, 0:07:52.844 --> 0:07:57.004 by the way, I don't mean to scare our Democratic listeners. 0:07:57.044 --> 0:08:01.404 Let's also remember that in these Midwestern swing states Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, 0:08:01.844 --> 0:08:05.804 those are states where Poles have overrated Democrats in the 0:08:05.804 --> 0:08:08.284 past couple of elections. So how safe should you feel 0:08:08.324 --> 0:08:11.684 if you're ahead by one point in Wisconsin when Biden 0:08:11.764 --> 0:08:13.644 was up by seven points in Wisconsin and only one 0:08:13.684 --> 0:08:16.444 by one point, for example, Maybe not that's safe. 0:08:16.844 --> 0:08:19.764 Yeah, no, I think that's a very fair point. So 0:08:20.604 --> 0:08:23.164 it is though it is a movement from last week, 0:08:23.204 --> 0:08:26.684 but again there is still a long way to go. Now, 0:08:26.764 --> 0:08:30.684 what about the Trump assassination attempt. Are we seeing any 0:08:30.844 --> 0:08:33.284 effects from that? Will we see effects from that? Because 0:08:33.324 --> 0:08:37.444 obviously that happened over the weekend, and you know, we're 0:08:37.484 --> 0:08:40.524 recording this on Tuesday, September seventeenth, so it's not like 0:08:41.124 --> 0:08:44.684 polls come out, you know, every single day that incorporate 0:08:44.724 --> 0:08:48.404 new events. But I'm curious whether there have been any 0:08:48.404 --> 0:08:50.484 shifts and whether you expect any shifts or not. 0:08:52.604 --> 0:08:56.404 I don't know. I mean we should also so clearly, 0:08:56.484 --> 0:09:02.564 the assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania was a very serious 0:09:02.564 --> 0:09:06.124 incident where Trump was injured and could have been killed 0:09:06.164 --> 0:09:08.404 if he didn't read at the right point in time, 0:09:08.524 --> 0:09:10.284 and another people person and was killed and other people 0:09:10.324 --> 0:09:15.844 were injured. And it's somewhat more common to see plots foiled. 0:09:15.884 --> 0:09:17.804 This guy got further than a lot of people. It 0:09:17.844 --> 0:09:20.644 was a guy at a golf course hiding in the bushes. 0:09:21.244 --> 0:09:24.284 For some reason, he decided to wear a pink shirt, 0:09:24.324 --> 0:09:27.484 which is not known as a color that helps you camouflage. 0:09:27.604 --> 0:09:30.844 Very well, yes, it's not traditional camouflage, that's true. 0:09:31.404 --> 0:09:34.004 So you know, I don't know whether this gets kind 0:09:34.044 --> 0:09:37.004 of talked about or thought. It was an event that 0:09:37.164 --> 0:09:41.084 totally disrupts the news cycle in prediction markets we talked 0:09:41.084 --> 0:09:43.724 about in a moment, it did not particularly move the 0:09:43.844 --> 0:09:45.964 numbers for what it's worth. I mean, look, it just 0:09:46.164 --> 0:09:49.684 I don't know. I mean, this election's turned pretty dark, 0:09:51.604 --> 0:09:53.484 I think, needless to say, right. I mean, you know, 0:09:53.524 --> 0:09:57.204 there probably should be more investigation into the Secret Service 0:09:57.204 --> 0:09:59.924 and what they are or are not doing. I don't know, 0:10:00.164 --> 0:10:05.124 that's not a bigger topic. For example, you have you know, 0:10:05.444 --> 0:10:08.684 Elon Musk making this awful joke about why hasn't anyone 0:10:08.724 --> 0:10:13.324 tried to assas the Democrats? That was low even for Elon, 0:10:13.764 --> 0:10:15.724 Even for Elon. I mean, you also have on the 0:10:15.924 --> 0:10:19.724 on this Haitian immigrant story. Some of this stuff is 0:10:19.764 --> 0:10:22.204 pretty outright racist, I think. And you also have like 0:10:22.924 --> 0:10:25.764 JD Events saying well, maybe it's not I'm paraphrasing slightly, 0:10:25.964 --> 0:10:27.964 maybe it's not strictly true, but at least it's a 0:10:27.964 --> 0:10:31.084 way to get people talking about immigration more. I mean, you're, 0:10:31.324 --> 0:10:32.924 first of all, you're not supposed to say that part 0:10:33.324 --> 0:10:36.444 JD Events, right, You're you're saying the quiet part out loud, 0:10:36.484 --> 0:10:41.084 and I and it's just so bizarre and and weird. 0:10:41.564 --> 0:10:43.844 I don't know, Maria, there comes a time when and 0:10:43.884 --> 0:10:47.844 this is after a period when after she took over, 0:10:48.684 --> 0:10:50.884 after Biden was shoved out of the way. He didn't 0:10:50.884 --> 0:10:53.404 honorably step aside. He was shoved out of the way 0:10:53.404 --> 0:10:56.404 by Nancy Pelosi and people who are smart and want 0:10:56.404 --> 0:10:59.644 to win the Democratic Party. You know, Harris ran this 0:10:59.804 --> 0:11:03.844 kind of sunnier, happier campaign and and I know sometimes 0:11:03.844 --> 0:11:06.924 after Labor Day things just turn dark. 0:11:08.244 --> 0:11:10.644 Yeah, this has been a very dark election. I think 0:11:10.644 --> 0:11:11.844 that's a good way of putting it. 0:11:12.764 --> 0:11:14.964 Yeah, look the way I liken this is a little 0:11:14.964 --> 0:11:17.684 bit too. H here's another analogy that'll probably piss half 0:11:17.684 --> 0:11:18.524 for audience off. 0:11:18.564 --> 0:11:21.444 It's okay, It's okay, as long as we keep pissing 0:11:21.484 --> 0:11:23.644 off different halves than it all. 0:11:23.884 --> 0:11:27.564 Even say, it's a little bit like climate change in 0:11:27.604 --> 0:11:29.884 the sense that any one severe weather event like a 0:11:29.964 --> 0:11:33.164 hurricane is hard to attribute to climate change. But when 0:11:33.164 --> 0:11:38.364 you have a climate when people are saying violent things, 0:11:38.444 --> 0:11:40.604 and I don't think the parties are equally responsible for this. 0:11:40.644 --> 0:11:42.604 I think Trump is much more likely to engage in 0:11:42.684 --> 0:11:45.604 violent rhetoric. But there's plenty of objectionable stuff on the 0:11:45.644 --> 0:11:51.204 Democratic side too. You know, the risk of violence is 0:11:51.284 --> 0:11:56.364 higher and we've seen, you know, these two attempts on 0:11:57.324 --> 0:12:01.124 Trump's life. We saw, you know, Paul Pelosi, the speaker 0:12:01.124 --> 0:12:05.164 from Preacau's House's husband attacked. You had a shooting in 0:12:05.204 --> 0:12:08.524 a congressional baseball game back. I guess this was several 0:12:08.604 --> 0:12:11.604 years ago, twenty seven, but still kind of in this 0:12:12.764 --> 0:12:17.164 you know, modern era twenty sixteen onward. Then it's been 0:12:17.244 --> 0:12:20.124 kind of a violent time in American political life. You 0:12:20.204 --> 0:12:23.804 saw a shooting of Republicans in a congressional baseball game a 0:12:23.844 --> 0:12:29.484 couple of years ago. You know, this is not good. Sorry, 0:12:29.564 --> 0:12:31.284 I guess I'm studying the obvious, right. And you have 0:12:31.324 --> 0:12:34.484 also January sixth, in the summer of twenty twenty, you 0:12:34.524 --> 0:12:39.044 have protests that are not always peaceful. Frankly somewhere often not. 0:12:41.124 --> 0:12:46.204 You know, look, I think in politics people feel like 0:12:46.244 --> 0:12:52.204 they have license to behave really badly. They feel self 0:12:52.244 --> 0:12:56.244 righteous about it. I don't know, Maria, No. 0:12:57.124 --> 0:13:00.684 It's not good. And I think that I think we're 0:13:00.724 --> 0:13:05.404 forgetting you know so much about why democracy works. You know, 0:13:05.524 --> 0:13:10.244 what makes democracy different from other forms of government, That 0:13:10.284 --> 0:13:14.804 we're supposed to have peaceful transitions of power, That peace 0:13:14.924 --> 0:13:17.964 is kind of supposed to be built into the system, 0:13:18.404 --> 0:13:20.644 you know, right now the United States, and some of 0:13:20.644 --> 0:13:23.764 it's in some of what's going on is more resembling, 0:13:24.124 --> 0:13:29.164 you know, countries that are dictatorships, that are that that 0:13:29.244 --> 0:13:32.684 are not used to having peaceful transitions of power. And 0:13:32.764 --> 0:13:36.004 I think that that's highly problematic. And I hope that 0:13:36.084 --> 0:13:38.644 it's not a harbinger of things to come. I hope 0:13:38.644 --> 0:13:42.724 that we are we are looking at a blip in 0:13:42.844 --> 0:13:46.724 time that will that will disappear. But that's just hope, 0:13:46.844 --> 0:13:49.444 right that has no no basis in reality, And right 0:13:49.444 --> 0:13:52.364 now the reality is actually showing us that we're veering 0:13:52.404 --> 0:13:57.204 off into another direction. And you know, we need data 0:13:57.924 --> 0:14:00.404 and we need to see what happens, but right now 0:14:00.404 --> 0:14:01.644 it's it's not looking pretty. 0:14:02.284 --> 0:14:04.084 Yeah, Like I think Democrats feel like, oh, if we 0:14:04.124 --> 0:14:08.284 just kind of defeat Donald Trump, we solve the problem, right, 0:14:08.324 --> 0:14:11.004 But you know, I'm not sure sure how how true 0:14:11.044 --> 0:14:14.244 that is exactly. Clearly a lot of these other Republican 0:14:14.284 --> 0:14:19.844 candidates are trying to emulate Trump's image. It is interesting 0:14:19.884 --> 0:14:23.284 though that the GOP brand is not terribly popular, Like 0:14:23.284 --> 0:14:26.284 they're still losing a lot of these races for a 0:14:26.364 --> 0:14:29.644 Senate and the House will probably take over the Senate 0:14:29.684 --> 0:14:31.684 because you have these Democrats that are up in very 0:14:31.724 --> 0:14:34.724 red states that might tip the balance, but in his 0:14:34.724 --> 0:14:37.804 swing states are often down by by five or six points. 0:14:37.804 --> 0:14:40.844 And I think somehow, like somehow, Trump sometimes gets a 0:14:40.924 --> 0:14:44.084 pass from voters, or maybe just Trump is kind of 0:14:44.084 --> 0:14:49.124 a guy who is he has a certain charisma that 0:14:49.204 --> 0:14:53.484 resonates with a certain type of voter. People think that 0:14:53.524 --> 0:14:56.444 he is on their side, whereas you kind of see 0:14:56.484 --> 0:14:59.284 like the more charisma less version with say jd Vance 0:14:59.804 --> 0:15:03.964 for example. So maybe it's right that if Democrats win 0:15:04.004 --> 0:15:06.404 this election two and Trump is then one for three. 0:15:06.444 --> 0:15:09.204 Although who knows, is there any reason why he wouldn't 0:15:09.244 --> 0:15:13.964 run in twenty twenty eight. I don't inherently see why not. Right, 0:15:14.884 --> 0:15:15.524 age is the. 0:15:15.404 --> 0:15:17.604 Only thing that I might that I might say in 0:15:17.644 --> 0:15:20.324 case there's, you know, any infirmity or anything that really 0:15:20.524 --> 0:15:22.604 prevents him from running, I think that that's the only 0:15:22.644 --> 0:15:24.004 thing that would really stop him. 0:15:24.524 --> 0:15:27.404 I mean, he'd be the same age as Biden tried 0:15:27.404 --> 0:15:29.484 to run this year, although I guess it's a negative indicator. 0:15:29.564 --> 0:15:33.924 Yeah, look at how well that turned out. Yeah, So 0:15:34.844 --> 0:15:37.564 just to kind of wrap this up, is there anything 0:15:37.644 --> 0:15:41.764 else that you think we should be looking at in 0:15:41.804 --> 0:15:44.764 the next week. Do you expect to see any changes 0:15:44.764 --> 0:15:47.084 in the coming week or do we just need to 0:15:47.204 --> 0:15:49.444 kind of wait and see what happens. 0:15:49.844 --> 0:15:51.404 Yeah, I hate to I hate to sound like a 0:15:51.444 --> 0:15:55.084 broken record, but you know, are you seeing for Harris 0:15:56.004 --> 0:15:58.404 poll showing her up one or two points in Pennsylvania's 0:15:58.444 --> 0:16:04.924 constin Michigan? Failing that, you know North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Well, 0:16:04.964 --> 0:16:08.524 then you know Nevada. Now I'm saying it weird. 0:16:08.404 --> 0:16:12.124 Nevadada, Novada, no matter, you got it? 0:16:12.764 --> 0:16:14.484 Okay. It's one of those words where I feel like, 0:16:14.684 --> 0:16:17.084 you know, like if you know someone named Megan, but 0:16:17.124 --> 0:16:20.404 then it's Megan, and then then you swear because like, 0:16:20.404 --> 0:16:22.284 oh it's not the way I think it is. Then 0:16:22.284 --> 0:16:25.124 you get screwed up between Megan and Megan. I just 0:16:25.124 --> 0:16:28.884 think people should consolidate these names, right, We should? You 0:16:28.884 --> 0:16:32.204 know how like in France you're only allowed certain surnames 0:16:32.284 --> 0:16:35.764 or Germany or something, right, Yep, we should stipulate Sarah 0:16:36.004 --> 0:16:38.844 with an H and Sarah with an A. You just 0:16:38.884 --> 0:16:40.164 got to get together and pick one. 0:16:41.684 --> 0:16:44.964 I could. I could see how that's going to play out. Nate, 0:16:45.324 --> 0:16:47.524 if that's part of your political platform. I'm going to 0:16:47.564 --> 0:16:51.644 tell you right now, you're gonna lose parents. Parents on 0:16:51.764 --> 0:16:56.164 both sides of the of the party spectrum are going 0:16:56.204 --> 0:16:58.324 to fight you to the death on that. They want 0:16:58.364 --> 0:16:59.524 their creative spellings. 0:16:59.844 --> 0:17:03.964 We're trying to like simplify these poor people's lives right there, 0:17:04.764 --> 0:17:06.044 spelled half the time. 0:17:06.644 --> 0:17:10.684 I completely agree with you, but I do not have children, 0:17:11.364 --> 0:17:13.804 and I think that a lot of people would disagree 0:17:13.804 --> 0:17:16.764 with us and would say that they need the freedom 0:17:16.844 --> 0:17:20.204 to spell the name however they want to spell it. 0:17:21.724 --> 0:17:23.804 And I think at some point that goes just a 0:17:23.804 --> 0:17:27.284 little bit too far. I'm all for simplification. Sarah's and 0:17:27.324 --> 0:17:32.124 Sarah's of the world unite. After this break, let's talk 0:17:32.124 --> 0:17:50.484 about Calshi and some prediction markets. Last week there was 0:17:50.684 --> 0:17:54.884 some major news in the prediction market space. So Nate, 0:17:55.004 --> 0:17:57.324 you know, we give this disclaimer all the time. You're 0:17:57.324 --> 0:18:02.484 an advisor for Polymarket. We're not talking about polymarket right now. 0:18:02.524 --> 0:18:05.164 Polymarket is not legal in the United States. There is 0:18:05.844 --> 0:18:08.564 a prediction market that is legal in the United States 0:18:08.604 --> 0:18:13.884 called cal she and last week it won its federal 0:18:13.964 --> 0:18:18.604 lawsuit against the Commodity Futures Training Commission in order to 0:18:18.644 --> 0:18:23.124 be able to offer contracts on which party will control 0:18:23.964 --> 0:18:28.204 the each House of Congress after the election. And this 0:18:28.364 --> 0:18:32.124 was a huge, huge deal, right because betting on elections 0:18:32.164 --> 0:18:34.284 has not been legal in the United States. It's been 0:18:34.484 --> 0:18:40.124 this huge lightning rod, this huge argument against prediction markets 0:18:40.484 --> 0:18:43.204 in general, and the fact that cal She won this 0:18:43.524 --> 0:18:48.364 lawsuit was just absolutely huge news. So right after it won, 0:18:48.524 --> 0:18:51.804 it actually offered these contracts, people started betting on them, 0:18:51.884 --> 0:18:53.924 and then a few hours later they had to free 0:18:54.044 --> 0:19:02.124 them because the CFTC said, hold on, you know, freeze, 0:19:02.804 --> 0:19:05.604 we want to contest this. We don't think this should 0:19:05.604 --> 0:19:07.924 be legal, and right now we're kind of in this 0:19:07.964 --> 0:19:10.644 holding pattern. No one knows what's going to happen to 0:19:10.724 --> 0:19:13.164 the people who already placed their bets last week during 0:19:13.204 --> 0:19:16.364 the few hours that vetting was open, and we don't 0:19:16.404 --> 0:19:19.804 know what's going to happen. They were supposed to potentially 0:19:20.364 --> 0:19:24.964 resolve this yesterday Monday. As of today, Tuesday, September seventeenth, 0:19:25.244 --> 0:19:28.924 they still have not resolved this. So the US Court 0:19:28.924 --> 0:19:32.244 of the Appeals and the DC Circuit is waiting. We're 0:19:32.284 --> 0:19:34.484 waiting to hear how they rule on this, and that's 0:19:34.524 --> 0:19:37.164 going to do a lot to determine the future of 0:19:37.244 --> 0:19:41.724 political betting in the United States. Let's talk about this 0:19:42.204 --> 0:19:44.604 because you know, this is something that cal she has 0:19:44.644 --> 0:19:48.284 been fighting for for over four years, and not just 0:19:48.324 --> 0:19:51.604 Calshie obviously other future markets, but Cals. She's been doing 0:19:51.644 --> 0:19:53.524 it from within the United States, bringing it through the 0:19:53.564 --> 0:19:55.964 court systems, and it's a big, big deal. 0:19:57.244 --> 0:19:59.724 Yeah. Whereas probably market has an agreement with the CFDC 0:20:00.164 --> 0:20:04.724 not to allowed trading in the US like I, as 0:20:04.804 --> 0:20:07.084 I need to say, whenever this type of subject comes up, 0:20:07.124 --> 0:20:09.244 I have a conflict of interest here. I am invi 0:20:09.604 --> 0:20:14.164 are to a competing prediction market called poly market. You know, 0:20:14.284 --> 0:20:16.804 the reason on aviasure to them is partly because they 0:20:16.844 --> 0:20:20.004 they compensate me, but also because I believe in prediction 0:20:20.084 --> 0:20:24.324 markets as a product. But look, the basic argument for 0:20:24.564 --> 0:20:28.164 prediction markets is that, you know, market risk inherently has 0:20:28.204 --> 0:20:32.684 to price in political risk anyway, that if you're thinking 0:20:32.684 --> 0:20:35.924 about how different classes of equities will move, or interest 0:20:36.044 --> 0:20:39.844 rates or you know, or foreign markets, you know, US 0:20:39.844 --> 0:20:44.284 policy toward China or whatnot, people already are factoring in 0:20:44.324 --> 0:20:48.204 who's gonna win the election, how political events might unfold, 0:20:48.244 --> 0:20:53.284 including like foreign elections for example, so why not allow 0:20:53.324 --> 0:20:56.284 people to bet on this directly instead of kind of 0:20:56.324 --> 0:21:00.764 filtered through other types of more imprecise commodities. You know. 0:21:01.364 --> 0:21:07.324 The CFTC says they're worried about market manipulation, and they 0:21:07.364 --> 0:21:12.484 can cite, for example, people playing placing fake poles out there. 0:21:12.484 --> 0:21:15.484 We've seen this sometimes actually, where you'll see people make 0:21:15.564 --> 0:21:18.364 up credible rumors of a poll. Whether they do that 0:21:18.404 --> 0:21:20.244 just to fuck with people or because it's a way 0:21:20.284 --> 0:21:23.844 to manipulate markets, I'm not so sure, you know, But 0:21:23.924 --> 0:21:26.364 the question is why use this in a different category 0:21:27.124 --> 0:21:31.444 than say betting on sports, where you have seen efforts 0:21:31.444 --> 0:21:35.524 to throw matches in manipulation, or trading equities and things 0:21:35.604 --> 0:21:38.324 like that, you know. I mean, if you have like 0:21:38.364 --> 0:21:41.204 a Donald Trump stock, you have things that are kind 0:21:41.204 --> 0:21:45.404 of proxies for election anyway. I mean Bitcoin often moves 0:21:46.084 --> 0:21:48.964 upward and downward. That's seen as Trump is seen as 0:21:48.964 --> 0:21:51.364 bullish for bitcoin. So if you have Trump having a 0:21:51.364 --> 0:21:54.044 bad debate like you had last week, for example, bitcoin 0:21:54.124 --> 0:21:56.804 goes down. So I don't know, I think it's I 0:21:56.844 --> 0:22:00.484 think the CFTC has always been very if you read 0:22:00.524 --> 0:22:04.724 the book my book, they're very villagy, right, They seem 0:22:04.764 --> 0:22:09.164 to think that like trading or gambling is is bad 0:22:09.204 --> 0:22:11.884 and and evil and will taint the political system when 0:22:11.884 --> 0:22:16.444 it's like, I don't know, you know, Alex, uh excuse me. 0:22:17.404 --> 0:22:20.004 You know, I always like the phrase that a bet 0:22:20.084 --> 0:22:22.804 is a tax on bullshit. You know, It's not uncommon 0:22:22.844 --> 0:22:24.524 for me to like be in an argument with somebody 0:22:24.524 --> 0:22:26.684 on Twitter and to say, Okay, you actually believe what 0:22:26.724 --> 0:22:29.604 you're saying, let's bet on it. Let's bet surreal money. 0:22:29.684 --> 0:22:31.564 Has anyone, by the way, ever taken you about it? 0:22:31.604 --> 0:22:33.724 Because I've seen you offer it to so many people, 0:22:33.764 --> 0:22:35.884 and I've never seen someone say yes. 0:22:35.724 --> 0:22:41.244 They're always they're always cowards, right, They're always cowards. They're 0:22:41.244 --> 0:22:43.564 always cowards because they don't actually mean what they say 0:22:43.644 --> 0:22:45.684 most of the time. Right, they're talking a big game 0:22:45.724 --> 0:22:47.724 and they don't actually mean what they say. And and 0:22:48.364 --> 0:22:50.004 I don't know, maybe it's a weird thing to want 0:22:50.044 --> 0:22:55.644 to like bet on all this stuff, but like, but yeah, yeah, 0:22:55.644 --> 0:22:58.364 by the way, we walk into Alan Lickman today. That 0:22:58.444 --> 0:22:59.604 feels like too much of a detour. 0:23:00.324 --> 0:23:03.364 We can, we can, but but first, uh, but first 0:23:03.404 --> 0:23:06.204 let's uh, let's let's stay on Calshi for a little 0:23:06.204 --> 0:23:09.244 bit and betting on elections. So you said a few things, 0:23:09.444 --> 0:23:12.404 and there there's one thing that you know that I 0:23:12.444 --> 0:23:16.284 completely agree with, which is that, you know, to really 0:23:16.404 --> 0:23:19.444 test someone's opinion, bet on it. Right. We did not 0:23:19.564 --> 0:23:22.964 invent this. I think I've cited Immanuel Khnt on this 0:23:23.084 --> 0:23:25.924