1 00:00:15,604 --> 00:00:28,804 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, our show about making 2 00:00:28,844 --> 00:00:32,204 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova and. 3 00:00:32,084 --> 00:00:35,564 Speaker 2: I'm Nate Silver. Today we're going to be talking, as 4 00:00:35,604 --> 00:00:38,804 Speaker 2: you might expect, more about the elections. There's been a 5 00:00:38,804 --> 00:00:42,004 Speaker 2: lot of frankly dark and disturbing news. There's also been 6 00:00:42,084 --> 00:00:43,844 Speaker 2: a lot of polling since the debate. We'll tell you 7 00:00:43,884 --> 00:00:46,124 Speaker 2: more about what it says and where our forecast is. 8 00:00:46,644 --> 00:00:50,644 Speaker 1: We'll also talk about Calshi and prediction markets and betting 9 00:00:50,804 --> 00:00:54,524 Speaker 1: on political outcomes in the United States. There's been some 10 00:00:54,564 --> 00:00:57,604 Speaker 1: big news on that last week. And finally, we're going 11 00:00:57,684 --> 00:01:00,484 Speaker 1: to take it to a more personal place and talk 12 00:01:00,524 --> 00:01:04,084 Speaker 1: about the saga that I've been having with air conditioning 13 00:01:04,164 --> 00:01:11,404 Speaker 1: in the midst of a New York City summer. Let's 14 00:01:11,404 --> 00:01:16,324 Speaker 1: start off with the election models. Trump's assassination, the debates. 15 00:01:16,444 --> 00:01:20,164 Speaker 1: All of this stuff has happened since we last spoke. 16 00:01:20,204 --> 00:01:23,204 Speaker 1: I mean, the debates happened the day before we last spoke, 17 00:01:23,484 --> 00:01:27,124 Speaker 1: but none of that data had been incorporated into the models. 18 00:01:27,244 --> 00:01:30,644 Speaker 1: There were no quality polls out. What has changed. Have 19 00:01:30,764 --> 00:01:34,924 Speaker 1: we seen quality polls in the last week. Where do 20 00:01:35,004 --> 00:01:40,684 Speaker 1: the data stand now? How have your election model predictions shifted. 21 00:01:41,244 --> 00:01:43,684 Speaker 2: Are you implying that data is plural. 22 00:01:43,324 --> 00:01:45,524 Speaker 1: Maria, data are plural name? 23 00:01:45,644 --> 00:01:48,884 Speaker 2: Oh my god, this is It's been a great run. 24 00:01:49,004 --> 00:01:51,324 Speaker 2: Thank you for listening to risky business. But we have 25 00:01:51,444 --> 00:01:53,244 Speaker 2: irreconcilable differences. 26 00:01:52,804 --> 00:01:55,284 Speaker 1: And Michelle is singular name. 27 00:01:56,044 --> 00:02:02,644 Speaker 2: God. Look, before the debate, Harris was ahead in national 28 00:02:02,644 --> 00:02:07,044 Speaker 2: polls by about two percentage points, and now she appears 29 00:02:07,044 --> 00:02:10,404 Speaker 2: to be ahead by roughly three percentage points. And there 30 00:02:10,484 --> 00:02:13,004 Speaker 2: has been quite a bit of high quality data at 31 00:02:13,004 --> 00:02:17,284 Speaker 2: the national level. Why is it number important? Well, the 32 00:02:17,324 --> 00:02:21,604 Speaker 2: electoral college bias, according to our forecast, Silver Bolton forecast 33 00:02:22,364 --> 00:02:24,404 Speaker 2: favors Trump by about two and a half points, so 34 00:02:24,484 --> 00:02:26,804 Speaker 2: kind of the point spread, as if Harris wins the 35 00:02:26,844 --> 00:02:28,924 Speaker 2: popular vote by two and a half points or more, 36 00:02:29,284 --> 00:02:31,604 Speaker 2: she's a favorite in electoral college. If she wins by 37 00:02:31,684 --> 00:02:33,524 Speaker 2: less than two and a half points, she probably doesn't 38 00:02:33,524 --> 00:02:35,444 Speaker 2: get over the finish line in states like Pennsylvania. So 39 00:02:35,524 --> 00:02:39,804 Speaker 2: therefore this is a good development for her. There's other 40 00:02:39,884 --> 00:02:43,444 Speaker 2: stuff too. The question is how sustainable is this if 41 00:02:43,484 --> 00:02:45,244 Speaker 2: you get like a short term bounce, So maybe the 42 00:02:45,284 --> 00:02:49,044 Speaker 2: news cycle already moves on to things like this other 43 00:02:49,124 --> 00:02:54,324 Speaker 2: attempt on Trump's life or conspiracy theories about what Haitian 44 00:02:54,364 --> 00:02:58,444 Speaker 2: immigrants are doing. Then we'll see. But in contrast to 45 00:02:58,484 --> 00:03:01,204 Speaker 2: this kind of labor day period where she was getting 46 00:03:01,244 --> 00:03:03,604 Speaker 2: a lot of mediocre data, like from the New York Times, 47 00:03:04,524 --> 00:03:07,004 Speaker 2: this is now back on track for basically a toss 48 00:03:07,044 --> 00:03:07,484 Speaker 2: of election. 49 00:03:08,404 --> 00:03:09,964 Speaker 1: Well that's good news, I mean. 50 00:03:10,004 --> 00:03:11,964 Speaker 2: If you're if you're a Harris fan. 51 00:03:11,924 --> 00:03:15,444 Speaker 1: If as people know I am, it's good news for Harris. 52 00:03:16,324 --> 00:03:20,524 Speaker 1: But where are we in terms of the poll cycle? Right? 53 00:03:20,564 --> 00:03:23,444 Speaker 1: Do you expect that this is kind of that the 54 00:03:23,564 --> 00:03:26,044 Speaker 1: highest quality polls have already come out, or do you 55 00:03:26,084 --> 00:03:29,964 Speaker 1: expect that we're going to be updating this significantly in 56 00:03:30,004 --> 00:03:31,004 Speaker 1: the coming week or two. 57 00:03:31,444 --> 00:03:33,844 Speaker 2: Now, what happens after a big event typically is the 58 00:03:33,924 --> 00:03:37,404 Speaker 2: national polls go first. If you're going to conduct one 59 00:03:37,444 --> 00:03:39,284 Speaker 2: pole and you do a national poll first, and we're 60 00:03:39,324 --> 00:03:41,444 Speaker 2: kind of well, we're waiting over the next week or 61 00:03:41,444 --> 00:03:45,204 Speaker 2: two to populate infill with with some of the higher 62 00:03:45,244 --> 00:03:50,844 Speaker 2: quality state polling data. Look, earlier this month, Harris was 63 00:03:50,844 --> 00:03:55,164 Speaker 2: getting some pretty mediocre numbers in state polls. You know 64 00:03:55,204 --> 00:03:57,044 Speaker 2: she got for example, Suffolk is a good pole. Souf 65 00:03:57,244 --> 00:04:00,324 Speaker 2: University had her up three in Pennsylvania, but a lot 66 00:04:00,364 --> 00:04:03,764 Speaker 2: more polls have had Pennsylvania, Michigan and whatnot basically a 67 00:04:03,844 --> 00:04:08,004 Speaker 2: tie recently. So so we'll see, you know, if if 68 00:04:08,044 --> 00:04:10,404 Speaker 2: those state polls also improved for her by a point 69 00:04:10,444 --> 00:04:12,844 Speaker 2: or two, that we might be at a point where 70 00:04:12,964 --> 00:04:16,484 Speaker 2: where you would say the race leans slightly toward her. 71 00:04:17,764 --> 00:04:19,644 Speaker 2: If they don't emote, might go back to saying that 72 00:04:19,764 --> 00:04:21,724 Speaker 2: race leans slightly toward Trump. I know it's frustrating. I 73 00:04:21,764 --> 00:04:23,684 Speaker 2: wish I could like have a crystal ball here and 74 00:04:23,724 --> 00:04:27,484 Speaker 2: predict what they would say. But that electoral college gap 75 00:04:27,564 --> 00:04:31,084 Speaker 2: is like, I think it's counterintuitive for people if you're 76 00:04:31,164 --> 00:04:34,044 Speaker 2: used to seeing headlines saying Harris ahead, Harris ahead, tye, 77 00:04:34,084 --> 00:04:38,804 Speaker 2: Harris ahead, lots of reporting the national polls again, Biden 78 00:04:38,844 --> 00:04:41,644 Speaker 2: won the popular vote by four and a half points 79 00:04:41,684 --> 00:04:44,684 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty and just barely won the electoral college 80 00:04:44,724 --> 00:04:47,404 Speaker 2: by by you know, a point or so in Wisconsin. 81 00:04:47,764 --> 00:04:49,764 Speaker 2: Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by two point one 82 00:04:49,764 --> 00:04:53,124 Speaker 2: points in twenty sixteen and lost the electoral college plust 83 00:04:53,164 --> 00:04:56,204 Speaker 2: all these mid Western states, for example, So you can't 84 00:04:56,244 --> 00:05:00,164 Speaker 2: look at these national polls and feel too complacent if 85 00:05:00,204 --> 00:05:02,244 Speaker 2: you're if you're a Democrat, and. 86 00:05:02,204 --> 00:05:05,244 Speaker 1: Are we still looking at Pennsylvania as kind of this 87 00:05:05,244 --> 00:05:08,844 Speaker 1: this benchmark, because you have written about the Pennsylvania polls 88 00:05:08,844 --> 00:05:11,204 Speaker 1: in the last few days, so I'm kind of curious 89 00:05:11,244 --> 00:05:14,564 Speaker 1: to see where we stand there. You just briefly mentioned it, 90 00:05:14,644 --> 00:05:16,684 Speaker 1: but I'd love to kind of go into a little 91 00:05:16,684 --> 00:05:20,564 Speaker 1: bit more detail because you've also you've also had some 92 00:05:21,524 --> 00:05:25,644 Speaker 1: of those paths to victory that might not seem intuitive, 93 00:05:25,804 --> 00:05:29,124 Speaker 1: Like you had one post called Alaska Alasco lastar Alaska, 94 00:05:29,764 --> 00:05:32,524 Speaker 1: which I thought was quite funny. But can you elaborate 95 00:05:32,564 --> 00:05:34,164 Speaker 1: a little bit and can we talk about kind of 96 00:05:34,204 --> 00:05:38,484 Speaker 1: the first Pennsylvania and then what different paths to victory 97 00:05:38,604 --> 00:05:41,804 Speaker 1: might look like if we don't, you know, if we 98 00:05:41,884 --> 00:05:44,764 Speaker 1: stay within this margin and don't see Harris improving. 99 00:05:46,164 --> 00:05:49,404 Speaker 2: Yeah, so Pennsylvania is the most likely what we call 100 00:05:49,444 --> 00:05:52,164 Speaker 2: tipping point state. The tipping point state. The short version 101 00:05:52,644 --> 00:05:54,004 Speaker 2: is it's a state that gives you the two hundred 102 00:05:54,004 --> 00:05:56,684 Speaker 2: and seventieth electoral vote. That's the state that's the number 103 00:05:56,684 --> 00:06:01,444 Speaker 2: that guarantees you a victory in electoral college. A longer version, 104 00:06:01,524 --> 00:06:03,724 Speaker 2: if you line up all the states from most blue 105 00:06:04,244 --> 00:06:06,484 Speaker 2: to most red and add up the electoral votes, that's 106 00:06:06,524 --> 00:06:09,404 Speaker 2: where you get over the finish line. But basically it's 107 00:06:09,524 --> 00:06:11,644 Speaker 2: the decisive state about a third of the time in 108 00:06:11,684 --> 00:06:14,164 Speaker 2: our model, but it's not alone. In that department. There's 109 00:06:14,164 --> 00:06:16,764 Speaker 2: about a thirty percent chance that Pennsylvania is a tipping 110 00:06:16,764 --> 00:06:19,044 Speaker 2: point state, which means there's a seventy percent chance that 111 00:06:19,084 --> 00:06:22,644 Speaker 2: it isn't Harris unlike Biden. I mean, Biden kind of 112 00:06:22,684 --> 00:06:27,684 Speaker 2: had to win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan very narrow path, whereas 113 00:06:27,684 --> 00:06:31,164 Speaker 2: Harris has often begetting their numbers in Georgia. For example, 114 00:06:31,644 --> 00:06:33,764 Speaker 2: North Carolina is a state that comes up quite a bit. 115 00:06:33,804 --> 00:06:37,364 Speaker 2: Those states both have sixteen electoral votes, Pennsylvania has nineteen, 116 00:06:37,564 --> 00:06:40,084 Speaker 2: so you can't quite substitute one for the other. But 117 00:06:40,124 --> 00:06:44,924 Speaker 2: there are combinations that work North Carolina plus Nevada, or 118 00:06:45,004 --> 00:06:49,604 Speaker 2: North Carolina plus Arizona, Nevada Nevada, or if you want 119 00:06:49,644 --> 00:06:55,404 Speaker 2: to get really creative, Nevada plus Arizona plus Alaska, where 120 00:06:55,404 --> 00:06:57,924 Speaker 2: a poll came out this weekend showing Harris down by 121 00:06:58,564 --> 00:06:59,524 Speaker 2: only four points. 122 00:07:01,524 --> 00:07:05,204 Speaker 1: When is the last time a Democrat has taken Alaska nineteen. 123 00:07:04,924 --> 00:07:09,404 Speaker 2: Sixty four, LBJ. I believe one Alaska people actually thought 124 00:07:10,324 --> 00:07:13,684 Speaker 2: when Alaska and Hawaii enter the country the Union, that 125 00:07:13,884 --> 00:07:16,404 Speaker 2: Alaska would be democratic and Hawaii would be Republican and 126 00:07:16,404 --> 00:07:21,204 Speaker 2: the reverse has been true instead fascinating, but Alaska has 127 00:07:21,644 --> 00:07:26,484 Speaker 2: a Democrat representative named Mary Peltola who is a lone 128 00:07:26,724 --> 00:07:30,164 Speaker 2: US House or presentative for the state at the state 129 00:07:30,244 --> 00:07:33,804 Speaker 2: legislature level. It's kind of by partisan. It's population is 130 00:07:33,884 --> 00:07:36,364 Speaker 2: changing a lot about you know, four percent of the 131 00:07:36,364 --> 00:07:40,404 Speaker 2: population moves into Alaska every year. It's a transient workforce. 132 00:07:40,404 --> 00:07:43,684 Speaker 2: I don't know if you're getting the expats from California 133 00:07:43,764 --> 00:07:47,524 Speaker 2: and stuff like that. So Harris does have more paths, 134 00:07:47,764 --> 00:07:52,804 Speaker 2: but there's not any one safe path. Let's also remember, 135 00:07:52,844 --> 00:07:57,004 Speaker 2: by the way, I don't mean to scare our Democratic listeners. 136 00:07:57,044 --> 00:08:01,404 Speaker 2: Let's also remember that in these Midwestern swing states Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, 137 00:08:01,844 --> 00:08:05,804 Speaker 2: those are states where Poles have overrated Democrats in the 138 00:08:05,804 --> 00:08:08,284 Speaker 2: past couple of elections. So how safe should you feel 139 00:08:08,324 --> 00:08:11,684 Speaker 2: if you're ahead by one point in Wisconsin when Biden 140 00:08:11,764 --> 00:08:13,644 Speaker 2: was up by seven points in Wisconsin and only one 141 00:08:13,684 --> 00:08:16,444 Speaker 2: by one point, for example, Maybe not that's safe. 142 00:08:16,844 --> 00:08:19,764 Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I think that's a very fair point. So 143 00:08:20,604 --> 00:08:23,164 Speaker 1: it is though it is a movement from last week, 144 00:08:23,204 --> 00:08:26,684 Speaker 1: but again there is still a long way to go. Now, 145 00:08:26,764 --> 00:08:30,684 Speaker 1: what about the Trump assassination attempt. Are we seeing any 146 00:08:30,844 --> 00:08:33,284 Speaker 1: effects from that? Will we see effects from that? Because 147 00:08:33,324 --> 00:08:37,444 Speaker 1: obviously that happened over the weekend, and you know, we're 148 00:08:37,484 --> 00:08:40,524 Speaker 1: recording this on Tuesday, September seventeenth, so it's not like 149 00:08:41,124 --> 00:08:44,684 Speaker 1: polls come out, you know, every single day that incorporate 150 00:08:44,724 --> 00:08:48,404 Speaker 1: new events. But I'm curious whether there have been any 151 00:08:48,404 --> 00:08:50,484 Speaker 1: shifts and whether you expect any shifts or not. 152 00:08:52,604 --> 00:08:56,404 Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean we should also so clearly, 153 00:08:56,484 --> 00:09:02,564 Speaker 2: the assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania was a very serious 154 00:09:02,564 --> 00:09:06,124 Speaker 2: incident where Trump was injured and could have been killed 155 00:09:06,164 --> 00:09:08,404 Speaker 2: if he didn't read at the right point in time, 156 00:09:08,524 --> 00:09:10,284 Speaker 2: and another people person and was killed and other people 157 00:09:10,324 --> 00:09:15,844 Speaker 2: were injured. And it's somewhat more common to see plots foiled. 158 00:09:15,884 --> 00:09:17,804 Speaker 2: This guy got further than a lot of people. It 159 00:09:17,844 --> 00:09:20,644 Speaker 2: was a guy at a golf course hiding in the bushes. 160 00:09:21,244 --> 00:09:24,284 Speaker 2: For some reason, he decided to wear a pink shirt, 161 00:09:24,324 --> 00:09:27,484 Speaker 2: which is not known as a color that helps you camouflage. 162 00:09:27,604 --> 00:09:30,844 Speaker 1: Very well, yes, it's not traditional camouflage, that's true. 163 00:09:31,404 --> 00:09:34,004 Speaker 2: So you know, I don't know whether this gets kind 164 00:09:34,044 --> 00:09:37,004 Speaker 2: of talked about or thought. It was an event that 165 00:09:37,164 --> 00:09:41,084 Speaker 2: totally disrupts the news cycle in prediction markets we talked 166 00:09:41,084 --> 00:09:43,724 Speaker 2: about in a moment, it did not particularly move the 167 00:09:43,844 --> 00:09:45,964 Speaker 2: numbers for what it's worth. I mean, look, it just 168 00:09:46,164 --> 00:09:49,684 Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, this election's turned pretty dark, 169 00:09:51,604 --> 00:09:53,484 Speaker 2: I think, needless to say, right. I mean, you know, 170 00:09:53,524 --> 00:09:57,204 Speaker 2: there probably should be more investigation into the Secret Service 171 00:09:57,204 --> 00:09:59,924 Speaker 2: and what they are or are not doing. I don't know, 172 00:10:00,164 --> 00:10:05,124 Speaker 2: that's not a bigger topic. For example, you have you know, 173 00:10:05,444 --> 00:10:08,684 Speaker 2: Elon Musk making this awful joke about why hasn't anyone 174 00:10:08,724 --> 00:10:13,324 Speaker 2: tried to assas the Democrats? That was low even for Elon, 175 00:10:13,764 --> 00:10:15,724 Speaker 2: Even for Elon. I mean, you also have on the 176 00:10:15,924 --> 00:10:19,724 Speaker 2: on this Haitian immigrant story. Some of this stuff is 177 00:10:19,764 --> 00:10:22,204 Speaker 2: pretty outright racist, I think. And you also have like 178 00:10:22,924 --> 00:10:25,764 Speaker 2: JD Events saying well, maybe it's not I'm paraphrasing slightly, 179 00:10:25,964 --> 00:10:27,964 Speaker 2: maybe it's not strictly true, but at least it's a 180 00:10:27,964 --> 00:10:31,084 Speaker 2: way to get people talking about immigration more. I mean, you're, 181 00:10:31,324 --> 00:10:32,924 Speaker 2: first of all, you're not supposed to say that part 182 00:10:33,324 --> 00:10:36,444 Speaker 2: JD Events, right, You're you're saying the quiet part out loud, 183 00:10:36,484 --> 00:10:41,084 Speaker 2: and I and it's just so bizarre and and weird. 184 00:10:41,564 --> 00:10:43,844 Speaker 2: I don't know, Maria, there comes a time when and 185 00:10:43,884 --> 00:10:47,844 Speaker 2: this is after a period when after she took over, 186 00:10:48,684 --> 00:10:50,884 Speaker 2: after Biden was shoved out of the way. He didn't 187 00:10:50,884 --> 00:10:53,404 Speaker 2: honorably step aside. He was shoved out of the way 188 00:10:53,404 --> 00:10:56,404 Speaker 2: by Nancy Pelosi and people who are smart and want 189 00:10:56,404 --> 00:10:59,644 Speaker 2: to win the Democratic Party. You know, Harris ran this 190 00:10:59,804 --> 00:11:03,844 Speaker 2: kind of sunnier, happier campaign and and I know sometimes 191 00:11:03,844 --> 00:11:06,924 Speaker 2: after Labor Day things just turn dark. 192 00:11:08,244 --> 00:11:10,644 Speaker 1: Yeah, this has been a very dark election. I think 193 00:11:10,644 --> 00:11:11,844 Speaker 1: that's a good way of putting it. 194 00:11:12,764 --> 00:11:14,964 Speaker 2: Yeah, look the way I liken this is a little 195 00:11:14,964 --> 00:11:17,684 Speaker 2: bit too. H here's another analogy that'll probably piss half 196 00:11:17,684 --> 00:11:18,524 Speaker 2: for audience off. 197 00:11:18,564 --> 00:11:21,444 Speaker 1: It's okay, It's okay, as long as we keep pissing 198 00:11:21,484 --> 00:11:23,644 Speaker 1: off different halves than it all. 199 00:11:23,884 --> 00:11:27,564 Speaker 2: Even say, it's a little bit like climate change in 200 00:11:27,604 --> 00:11:29,884 Speaker 2: the sense that any one severe weather event like a 201 00:11:29,964 --> 00:11:33,164 Speaker 2: hurricane is hard to attribute to climate change. But when 202 00:11:33,164 --> 00:11:38,364 Speaker 2: you have a climate when people are saying violent things, 203 00:11:38,444 --> 00:11:40,604 Speaker 2: and I don't think the parties are equally responsible for this. 204 00:11:40,644 --> 00:11:42,604 Speaker 2: I think Trump is much more likely to engage in 205 00:11:42,684 --> 00:11:45,604 Speaker 2: violent rhetoric. But there's plenty of objectionable stuff on the 206 00:11:45,644 --> 00:11:51,204 Speaker 2: Democratic side too. You know, the risk of violence is 207 00:11:51,284 --> 00:11:56,364 Speaker 2: higher and we've seen, you know, these two attempts on 208 00:11:57,324 --> 00:12:01,124 Speaker 2: Trump's life. We saw, you know, Paul Pelosi, the speaker 209 00:12:01,124 --> 00:12:05,164 Speaker 2: from Preacau's House's husband attacked. You had a shooting in 210 00:12:05,204 --> 00:12:08,524 Speaker 2: a congressional baseball game back. I guess this was several 211 00:12:08,604 --> 00:12:11,604 Speaker 2: years ago, twenty seven, but still kind of in this 212 00:12:12,764 --> 00:12:17,164 Speaker 2: you know, modern era twenty sixteen onward. Then it's been 213 00:12:17,244 --> 00:12:20,124 Speaker 2: kind of a violent time in American political life. You 214 00:12:20,204 --> 00:12:23,804 Speaker 2: saw a shooting of Republicans in a congressional baseball game a 215 00:12:23,844 --> 00:12:29,484 Speaker 2: couple of years ago. You know, this is not good. Sorry, 216 00:12:29,564 --> 00:12:31,284 Speaker 2: I guess I'm studying the obvious, right. And you have 217 00:12:31,324 --> 00:12:34,484 Speaker 2: also January sixth, in the summer of twenty twenty, you 218 00:12:34,524 --> 00:12:39,044 Speaker 2: have protests that are not always peaceful. Frankly somewhere often not. 219 00:12:41,124 --> 00:12:46,204 Speaker 2: You know, look, I think in politics people feel like 220 00:12:46,244 --> 00:12:52,204 Speaker 2: they have license to behave really badly. They feel self 221 00:12:52,244 --> 00:12:56,244 Speaker 2: righteous about it. I don't know, Maria, No. 222 00:12:57,124 --> 00:13:00,684 Speaker 1: It's not good. And I think that I think we're 223 00:13:00,724 --> 00:13:05,404 Speaker 1: forgetting you know so much about why democracy works. You know, 224 00:13:05,524 --> 00:13:10,244 Speaker 1: what makes democracy different from other forms of government, That 225 00:13:10,284 --> 00:13:14,804 Speaker 1: we're supposed to have peaceful transitions of power, That peace 226 00:13:14,924 --> 00:13:17,964 Speaker 1: is kind of supposed to be built into the system, 227 00:13:18,404 --> 00:13:20,644 Speaker 1: you know, right now the United States, and some of 228 00:13:20,644 --> 00:13:23,764 Speaker 1: it's in some of what's going on is more resembling, 229 00:13:24,124 --> 00:13:29,164 Speaker 1: you know, countries that are dictatorships, that are that that 230 00:13:29,244 --> 00:13:32,684 Speaker 1: are not used to having peaceful transitions of power. And 231 00:13:32,764 --> 00:13:36,004 Speaker 1: I think that that's highly problematic. And I hope that 232 00:13:36,084 --> 00:13:38,644 Speaker 1: it's not a harbinger of things to come. I hope 233 00:13:38,644 --> 00:13:42,724 Speaker 1: that we are we are looking at a blip in 234 00:13:42,844 --> 00:13:46,724 Speaker 1: time that will that will disappear. But that's just hope, 235 00:13:46,844 --> 00:13:49,444 Speaker 1: right that has no no basis in reality, And right 236 00:13:49,444 --> 00:13:52,364 Speaker 1: now the reality is actually showing us that we're veering 237 00:13:52,404 --> 00:13:57,204 Speaker 1: off into another direction. And you know, we need data 238 00:13:57,924 --> 00:14:00,404 Speaker 1: and we need to see what happens, but right now 239 00:14:00,404 --> 00:14:01,644 Speaker 1: it's it's not looking pretty. 240 00:14:02,284 --> 00:14:04,084 Speaker 2: Yeah, Like I think Democrats feel like, oh, if we 241 00:14:04,124 --> 00:14:08,284 Speaker 2: just kind of defeat Donald Trump, we solve the problem, right, 242 00:14:08,324 --> 00:14:11,004 Speaker 2: But you know, I'm not sure sure how how true 243 00:14:11,044 --> 00:14:14,244 Speaker 2: that is exactly. Clearly a lot of these other Republican 244 00:14:14,284 --> 00:14:19,844 Speaker 2: candidates are trying to emulate Trump's image. It is interesting 245 00:14:19,884 --> 00:14:23,284 Speaker 2: though that the GOP brand is not terribly popular, Like 246 00:14:23,284 --> 00:14:26,284 Speaker 2: they're still losing a lot of these races for a 247 00:14:26,364 --> 00:14:29,644 Speaker 2: Senate and the House will probably take over the Senate 248 00:14:29,684 --> 00:14:31,684 Speaker 2: because you have these Democrats that are up in very 249 00:14:31,724 --> 00:14:34,724 Speaker 2: red states that might tip the balance, but in his 250 00:14:34,724 --> 00:14:37,804 Speaker 2: swing states are often down by by five or six points. 251 00:14:37,804 --> 00:14:40,844 Speaker 2: And I think somehow, like somehow, Trump sometimes gets a 252 00:14:40,924 --> 00:14:44,084 Speaker 2: pass from voters, or maybe just Trump is kind of 253 00:14:44,084 --> 00:14:49,124 Speaker 2: a guy who is he has a certain charisma that 254 00:14:49,204 --> 00:14:53,484 Speaker 2: resonates with a certain type of voter. People think that 255 00:14:53,524 --> 00:14:56,444 Speaker 2: he is on their side, whereas you kind of see 256 00:14:56,484 --> 00:14:59,284 Speaker 2: like the more charisma less version with say jd Vance 257 00:14:59,804 --> 00:15:03,964 Speaker 2: for example. So maybe it's right that if Democrats win 258 00:15:04,004 --> 00:15:06,404 Speaker 2: this election two and Trump is then one for three. 259 00:15:06,444 --> 00:15:09,204 Speaker 2: Although who knows, is there any reason why he wouldn't 260 00:15:09,244 --> 00:15:13,964 Speaker 2: run in twenty twenty eight. I don't inherently see why not. Right, 261 00:15:14,884 --> 00:15:15,524 Speaker 2: age is the. 262 00:15:15,404 --> 00:15:17,604 Speaker 1: Only thing that I might that I might say in 263 00:15:17,644 --> 00:15:20,324 Speaker 1: case there's, you know, any infirmity or anything that really 264 00:15:20,524 --> 00:15:22,604 Speaker 1: prevents him from running, I think that that's the only 265 00:15:22,644 --> 00:15:24,004 Speaker 1: thing that would really stop him. 266 00:15:24,524 --> 00:15:27,404 Speaker 2: I mean, he'd be the same age as Biden tried 267 00:15:27,404 --> 00:15:29,484 Speaker 2: to run this year, although I guess it's a negative indicator. 268 00:15:29,564 --> 00:15:33,924 Speaker 1: Yeah, look at how well that turned out. Yeah, So 269 00:15:34,844 --> 00:15:37,564 Speaker 1: just to kind of wrap this up, is there anything 270 00:15:37,644 --> 00:15:41,764 Speaker 1: else that you think we should be looking at in 271 00:15:41,804 --> 00:15:44,764 Speaker 1: the next week. Do you expect to see any changes 272 00:15:44,764 --> 00:15:47,084 Speaker 1: in the coming week or do we just need to 273 00:15:47,204 --> 00:15:49,444 Speaker 1: kind of wait and see what happens. 274 00:15:49,844 --> 00:15:51,404 Speaker 2: Yeah, I hate to I hate to sound like a 275 00:15:51,444 --> 00:15:55,084 Speaker 2: broken record, but you know, are you seeing for Harris 276 00:15:56,004 --> 00:15:58,404 Speaker 2: poll showing her up one or two points in Pennsylvania's 277 00:15:58,444 --> 00:16:04,924 Speaker 2: constin Michigan? Failing that, you know North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Well, 278 00:16:04,964 --> 00:16:08,524 Speaker 2: then you know Nevada. Now I'm saying it weird. 279 00:16:08,404 --> 00:16:12,124 Speaker 1: Nevadada, Novada, no matter, you got it? 280 00:16:12,764 --> 00:16:14,484 Speaker 2: Okay. It's one of those words where I feel like, 281 00:16:14,684 --> 00:16:17,084 Speaker 2: you know, like if you know someone named Megan, but 282 00:16:17,124 --> 00:16:20,404 Speaker 2: then it's Megan, and then then you swear because like, 283 00:16:20,404 --> 00:16:22,284 Speaker 2: oh it's not the way I think it is. Then 284 00:16:22,284 --> 00:16:25,124 Speaker 2: you get screwed up between Megan and Megan. I just 285 00:16:25,124 --> 00:16:28,884 Speaker 2: think people should consolidate these names, right, We should? You 286 00:16:28,884 --> 00:16:32,204 Speaker 2: know how like in France you're only allowed certain surnames 287 00:16:32,284 --> 00:16:35,764 Speaker 2: or Germany or something, right, Yep, we should stipulate Sarah 288 00:16:36,004 --> 00:16:38,844 Speaker 2: with an H and Sarah with an A. You just 289 00:16:38,884 --> 00:16:40,164 Speaker 2: got to get together and pick one. 290 00:16:41,684 --> 00:16:44,964 Speaker 1: I could. I could see how that's going to play out. Nate, 291 00:16:45,324 --> 00:16:47,524 Speaker 1: if that's part of your political platform. I'm going to 292 00:16:47,564 --> 00:16:51,644 Speaker 1: tell you right now, you're gonna lose parents. Parents on 293 00:16:51,764 --> 00:16:56,164 Speaker 1: both sides of the of the party spectrum are going 294 00:16:56,204 --> 00:16:58,324 Speaker 1: to fight you to the death on that. They want 295 00:16:58,364 --> 00:16:59,524 Speaker 1: their creative spellings. 296 00:16:59,844 --> 00:17:03,964 Speaker 2: We're trying to like simplify these poor people's lives right there, 297 00:17:04,764 --> 00:17:06,044 Speaker 2: spelled half the time. 298 00:17:06,644 --> 00:17:10,684 Speaker 1: I completely agree with you, but I do not have children, 299 00:17:11,364 --> 00:17:13,804 Speaker 1: and I think that a lot of people would disagree 300 00:17:13,804 --> 00:17:16,764 Speaker 1: with us and would say that they need the freedom 301 00:17:16,844 --> 00:17:20,204 Speaker 1: to spell the name however they want to spell it. 302 00:17:21,724 --> 00:17:23,804 Speaker 1: And I think at some point that goes just a 303 00:17:23,804 --> 00:17:27,284 Speaker 1: little bit too far. I'm all for simplification. Sarah's and 304 00:17:27,324 --> 00:17:32,124 Speaker 1: Sarah's of the world unite. After this break, let's talk 305 00:17:32,124 --> 00:17:50,484 Speaker 1: about Calshi and some prediction markets. Last week there was 306 00:17:50,684 --> 00:17:54,884 Speaker 1: some major news in the prediction market space. So Nate, 307 00:17:55,004 --> 00:17:57,324 Speaker 1: you know, we give this disclaimer all the time. You're 308 00:17:57,324 --> 00:18:02,484 Speaker 1: an advisor for Polymarket. We're not talking about polymarket right now. 309 00:18:02,524 --> 00:18:05,164 Speaker 1: Polymarket is not legal in the United States. There is 310 00:18:05,844 --> 00:18:08,564 Speaker 1: a prediction market that is legal in the United States 311 00:18:08,604 --> 00:18:13,884 Speaker 1: called cal she and last week it won its federal 312 00:18:13,964 --> 00:18:18,604 Speaker 1: lawsuit against the Commodity Futures Training Commission in order to 313 00:18:18,644 --> 00:18:23,124 Speaker 1: be able to offer contracts on which party will control 314 00:18:23,964 --> 00:18:28,204 Speaker 1: the each House of Congress after the election. And this 315 00:18:28,364 --> 00:18:32,124 Speaker 1: was a huge, huge deal, right because betting on elections 316 00:18:32,164 --> 00:18:34,284 Speaker 1: has not been legal in the United States. It's been 317 00:18:34,484 --> 00:18:40,124 Speaker 1: this huge lightning rod, this huge argument against prediction markets 318 00:18:40,484 --> 00:18:43,204 Speaker 1: in general, and the fact that cal She won this 319 00:18:43,524 --> 00:18:48,364 Speaker 1: lawsuit was just absolutely huge news. So right after it won, 320 00:18:48,524 --> 00:18:51,804 Speaker 1: it actually offered these contracts, people started betting on them, 321 00:18:51,884 --> 00:18:53,924 Speaker 1: and then a few hours later they had to free 322 00:18:54,044 --> 00:19:02,124 Speaker 1: them because the CFTC said, hold on, you know, freeze, 323 00:19:02,804 --> 00:19:05,604 Speaker 1: we want to contest this. We don't think this should 324 00:19:05,604 --> 00:19:07,924 Speaker 1: be legal, and right now we're kind of in this 325 00:19:07,964 --> 00:19:10,644 Speaker 1: holding pattern. No one knows what's going to happen to 326 00:19:10,724 --> 00:19:13,164 Speaker 1: the people who already placed their bets last week during 327 00:19:13,204 --> 00:19:16,364 Speaker 1: the few hours that vetting was open, and we don't 328 00:19:16,404 --> 00:19:19,804 Speaker 1: know what's going to happen. They were supposed to potentially 329 00:19:20,364 --> 00:19:24,964 Speaker 1: resolve this yesterday Monday. As of today, Tuesday, September seventeenth, 330 00:19:25,244 --> 00:19:28,924 Speaker 1: they still have not resolved this. So the US Court 331 00:19:28,924 --> 00:19:32,244 Speaker 1: of the Appeals and the DC Circuit is waiting. We're 332 00:19:32,284 --> 00:19:34,484 Speaker 1: waiting to hear how they rule on this, and that's 333 00:19:34,524 --> 00:19:37,164 Speaker 1: going to do a lot to determine the future of 334 00:19:37,244 --> 00:19:41,724 Speaker 1: political betting in the United States. Let's talk about this 335 00:19:42,204 --> 00:19:44,604 Speaker 1: because you know, this is something that cal she has 336 00:19:44,644 --> 00:19:48,284 Speaker 1: been fighting for for over four years, and not just 337 00:19:48,324 --> 00:19:51,604 Speaker 1: Calshie obviously other future markets, but Cals. She's been doing 338 00:19:51,644 --> 00:19:53,524 Speaker 1: it from within the United States, bringing it through the 339 00:19:53,564 --> 00:19:55,964 Speaker 1: court systems, and it's a big, big deal. 340 00:19:57,244 --> 00:19:59,724 Speaker 2: Yeah. Whereas probably market has an agreement with the CFDC 341 00:20:00,164 --> 00:20:04,724 Speaker 2: not to allowed trading in the US like I, as 342 00:20:04,804 --> 00:20:07,084 Speaker 2: I need to say, whenever this type of subject comes up, 343 00:20:07,124 --> 00:20:09,244 Speaker 2: I have a conflict of interest here. I am invi 344 00:20:09,604 --> 00:20:14,164 Speaker 2: are to a competing prediction market called poly market. You know, 345 00:20:14,284 --> 00:20:16,804 Speaker 2: the reason on aviasure to them is partly because they 346 00:20:16,844 --> 00:20:20,004 Speaker 2: they compensate me, but also because I believe in prediction 347 00:20:20,084 --> 00:20:24,324 Speaker 2: markets as a product. But look, the basic argument for 348 00:20:24,564 --> 00:20:28,164 Speaker 2: prediction markets is that, you know, market risk inherently has 349 00:20:28,204 --> 00:20:32,684 Speaker 2: to price in political risk anyway, that if you're thinking 350 00:20:32,684 --> 00:20:35,924 Speaker 2: about how different classes of equities will move, or interest 351 00:20:36,044 --> 00:20:39,844 Speaker 2: rates or you know, or foreign markets, you know, US 352 00:20:39,844 --> 00:20:44,284 Speaker 2: policy toward China or whatnot, people already are factoring in 353 00:20:44,324 --> 00:20:48,204 Speaker 2: who's gonna win the election, how political events might unfold, 354 00:20:48,244 --> 00:20:53,284 Speaker 2: including like foreign elections for example, so why not allow 355 00:20:53,324 --> 00:20:56,284 Speaker 2: people to bet on this directly instead of kind of 356 00:20:56,324 --> 00:21:00,764 Speaker 2: filtered through other types of more imprecise commodities. You know. 357 00:21:01,364 --> 00:21:07,324 Speaker 2: The CFTC says they're worried about market manipulation, and they 358 00:21:07,364 --> 00:21:12,484 Speaker 2: can cite, for example, people playing placing fake poles out there. 359 00:21:12,484 --> 00:21:15,484 Speaker 2: We've seen this sometimes actually, where you'll see people make 360 00:21:15,564 --> 00:21:18,364 Speaker 2: up credible rumors of a poll. Whether they do that 361 00:21:18,404 --> 00:21:20,244 Speaker 2: just to fuck with people or because it's a way 362 00:21:20,284 --> 00:21:23,844 Speaker 2: to manipulate markets, I'm not so sure, you know, But 363 00:21:23,924 --> 00:21:26,364 Speaker 2: the question is why use this in a different category 364 00:21:27,124 --> 00:21:31,444 Speaker 2: than say betting on sports, where you have seen efforts 365 00:21:31,444 --> 00:21:35,524 Speaker 2: to throw matches in manipulation, or trading equities and things 366 00:21:35,604 --> 00:21:38,324 Speaker 2: like that, you know. I mean, if you have like 367 00:21:38,364 --> 00:21:41,204 Speaker 2: a Donald Trump stock, you have things that are kind 368 00:21:41,204 --> 00:21:45,404 Speaker 2: of proxies for election anyway. I mean Bitcoin often moves 369 00:21:46,084 --> 00:21:48,964 Speaker 2: upward and downward. That's seen as Trump is seen as 370 00:21:48,964 --> 00:21:51,364 Speaker 2: bullish for bitcoin. So if you have Trump having a 371 00:21:51,364 --> 00:21:54,044 Speaker 2: bad debate like you had last week, for example, bitcoin 372 00:21:54,124 --> 00:21:56,804 Speaker 2: goes down. So I don't know, I think it's I 373 00:21:56,844 --> 00:22:00,484 Speaker 2: think the CFTC has always been very if you read 374 00:22:00,524 --> 00:22:04,724 Speaker 2: the book my book, they're very villagy, right, They seem 375 00:22:04,764 --> 00:22:09,164 Speaker 2: to think that like trading or gambling is is bad 376 00:22:09,204 --> 00:22:11,884 Speaker 2: and and evil and will taint the political system when 377 00:22:11,884 --> 00:22:16,444 Speaker 2: it's like, I don't know, you know, Alex, uh excuse me. 378 00:22:17,404 --> 00:22:20,004 Speaker 2: You know, I always like the phrase that a bet 379 00:22:20,084 --> 00:22:22,804 Speaker 2: is a tax on bullshit. You know, It's not uncommon 380 00:22:22,844 --> 00:22:24,524 Speaker 2: for me to like be in an argument with somebody 381 00:22:24,524 --> 00:22:26,684 Speaker 2: on Twitter and to say, Okay, you actually believe what 382 00:22:26,724 --> 00:22:29,604 Speaker 2: you're saying, let's bet on it. Let's bet surreal money. 383 00:22:29,684 --> 00:22:31,564 Speaker 1: Has anyone, by the way, ever taken you about it? 384 00:22:31,604 --> 00:22:33,724 Speaker 1: Because I've seen you offer it to so many people, 385 00:22:33,764 --> 00:22:35,884 Speaker 1: and I've never seen someone say yes. 386 00:22:35,724 --> 00:22:41,244 Speaker 2: They're always they're always cowards, right, They're always cowards. They're 387 00:22:41,244 --> 00:22:43,564 Speaker 2: always cowards because they don't actually mean what they say 388 00:22:43,644 --> 00:22:45,684 Speaker 2: most of the time. Right, they're talking a big game 389 00:22:45,724 --> 00:22:47,724 Speaker 2: and they don't actually mean what they say. And and 390 00:22:48,364 --> 00:22:50,004 Speaker 2: I don't know, maybe it's a weird thing to want 391 00:22:50,044 --> 00:22:55,644 Speaker 2: to like bet on all this stuff, but like, but yeah, yeah, 392 00:22:55,644 --> 00:22:58,364 Speaker 2: by the way, we walk into Alan Lickman today. That 393 00:22:58,444 --> 00:22:59,604 Speaker 2: feels like too much of a detour. 394 00:23:00,324 --> 00:23:03,364 Speaker 1: We can, we can, but but first, uh, but first 395 00:23:03,404 --> 00:23:06,204 Speaker 1: let's uh, let's let's stay on Calshi for a little 396 00:23:06,204 --> 00:23:09,244 Speaker 1: bit and betting on elections. So you said a few things, 397 00:23:09,444 --> 00:23:12,404 Speaker 1: and there there's one thing that you know that I 398 00:23:12,444 --> 00:23:16,284 Speaker 1: completely agree with, which is that, you know, to really 399 00:23:16,404 --> 00:23:19,444 Speaker 1: test someone's opinion, bet on it. Right. We did not 400 00:23:19,564 --> 00:23:22,964 Speaker 1: invent this. I think I've cited Immanuel Khnt on this 401 00:23:23,084 --> 00:23:25,924 Speaker 1: podcast before. You know. He was one of the original 402 00:23:25,924 --> 00:23:30,084 Speaker 1: proponents that if you say something's going to happen, if 403 00:23:30,124 --> 00:23:32,324 Speaker 1: you have a certainty in it, how much money are 404 00:23:32,324 --> 00:23:34,124 Speaker 1: you willing to bet on it? Right? What will you 405 00:23:34,164 --> 00:23:37,004 Speaker 1: place on it? And he did see this as a 406 00:23:37,084 --> 00:23:40,404 Speaker 1: tax on bullshit and on false certainty, on unfalse confidence, 407 00:23:40,724 --> 00:23:42,524 Speaker 1: and he thought that this would really be a very 408 00:23:42,524 --> 00:23:47,364 Speaker 1: strong corrective towards people just prosaltizing and giving unfounded opinions 409 00:23:47,444 --> 00:23:50,044 Speaker 1: and trying to you know, stand on a soapbox without 410 00:23:50,084 --> 00:23:53,164 Speaker 1: actual knowledge or backing that you really needed to put 411 00:23:53,204 --> 00:23:56,004 Speaker 1: your money where your mouth is. And so in that sense, 412 00:23:56,284 --> 00:24:00,444 Speaker 1: you know, betting on politics great, right. It helps calibrate outcomes, 413 00:24:00,484 --> 00:24:03,244 Speaker 1: It helps kind of figure out where things are standing, 414 00:24:03,284 --> 00:24:05,804 Speaker 1: because people really have skin in the game as opposed 415 00:24:05,844 --> 00:24:07,884 Speaker 1: to just kind of standing on their soapbox, which when 416 00:24:07,924 --> 00:24:10,284 Speaker 1: it comes to politics, everyone has a soap books and 417 00:24:10,324 --> 00:24:13,964 Speaker 1: everyone wants to scream loudly. But let's look at the 418 00:24:13,964 --> 00:24:17,324 Speaker 1: other side of it. So you said something which was, 419 00:24:17,444 --> 00:24:19,924 Speaker 1: you know, if we're betting on sports where people there 420 00:24:19,924 --> 00:24:22,324 Speaker 1: has been manipulation, people have tried to throw games, why 421 00:24:22,364 --> 00:24:24,804 Speaker 1: aren't we allowed to bet on politics? I would say, 422 00:24:24,804 --> 00:24:26,684 Speaker 1: I think this is a huge problem in sports betting 423 00:24:26,724 --> 00:24:29,884 Speaker 1: as well. We've talked about this, and if you think 424 00:24:29,924 --> 00:24:32,284 Speaker 1: it's a huge problem in sports and that people are 425 00:24:32,324 --> 00:24:34,844 Speaker 1: throwing games and that it actually is kind of adding 426 00:24:35,324 --> 00:24:39,404 Speaker 1: some of this uncertainty to certain outcomes where you can't 427 00:24:39,444 --> 00:24:43,284 Speaker 1: really tell, you know, did this person actually you know fumble, 428 00:24:43,444 --> 00:24:45,564 Speaker 1: did they throw the game on purpose? Kind of there's 429 00:24:46,164 --> 00:24:48,124 Speaker 1: it introduces a lot of shades of great in the 430 00:24:48,124 --> 00:24:50,204 Speaker 1: moment that you can bet on some of these outcomes, 431 00:24:50,324 --> 00:24:52,604 Speaker 1: including just these crazy prop bets, right, not just the 432 00:24:52,644 --> 00:24:55,804 Speaker 1: outcome of the game, but there are these just insane 433 00:24:55,844 --> 00:24:58,884 Speaker 1: prop bets that have a lot of money riding on 434 00:24:58,924 --> 00:25:01,804 Speaker 1: them during the game. But think about like at the 435 00:25:01,884 --> 00:25:03,644 Speaker 1: end of the day, like it's it's a sports game. 436 00:25:03,684 --> 00:25:05,324 Speaker 1: I know there are listeners of the show who are 437 00:25:05,404 --> 00:25:07,844 Speaker 1: huge sports fans, but like it's not going to change 438 00:25:07,844 --> 00:25:11,444 Speaker 1: the fate of the world. We're talking about politics, those 439 00:25:11,444 --> 00:25:15,524 Speaker 1: things become amplified because we're now playing in a different ballgame. 440 00:25:15,764 --> 00:25:19,244 Speaker 1: Let's mix metaphors here and bring sports to politics. It's 441 00:25:19,524 --> 00:25:22,804 Speaker 1: a different game that we're playing with much higher stakes, 442 00:25:23,604 --> 00:25:29,884 Speaker 1: where any potential impropriety, manipulation, things that could actually throw 443 00:25:30,284 --> 00:25:34,004 Speaker 1: elections one way or another, one outcome one way or another, 444 00:25:34,324 --> 00:25:37,644 Speaker 1: they become much much bigger deals. Right, we actually have 445 00:25:37,684 --> 00:25:41,084 Speaker 1: to pay attention to that. Now, I'm not What I'm 446 00:25:41,124 --> 00:25:42,924 Speaker 1: not saying is this is the case and we can't 447 00:25:42,924 --> 00:25:45,204 Speaker 1: allow betting on elections. What I'm saying is we need 448 00:25:45,244 --> 00:25:47,284 Speaker 1: to talk about this, We need to consider it. We 449 00:25:47,324 --> 00:25:49,364 Speaker 1: need to try to figure out, you know, what are 450 00:25:49,404 --> 00:25:51,724 Speaker 1: the pros, what are the cons, what's the risk of this? 451 00:25:52,604 --> 00:25:56,444 Speaker 1: And given that, what kinds of tools also do we 452 00:25:56,524 --> 00:26:00,164 Speaker 1: want to offer? Because prediction markets don't just offer, you know, 453 00:26:00,324 --> 00:26:03,724 Speaker 1: a straight out bet on the outcome of the election. Right, 454 00:26:03,764 --> 00:26:06,444 Speaker 1: there are contracts, there are derivatives markets, There are all 455 00:26:06,484 --> 00:26:08,804 Speaker 1: sorts of secondary things where you get to bet on 456 00:26:08,964 --> 00:26:12,884 Speaker 1: also some things. And so even if we you know, 457 00:26:12,924 --> 00:26:14,524 Speaker 1: once you and I talk about it, even if we 458 00:26:14,564 --> 00:26:17,444 Speaker 1: agree that okay, some sorts of betting is okay, that 459 00:26:17,484 --> 00:26:20,004 Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily mean that all sorts of betting is okay, 460 00:26:20,324 --> 00:26:22,284 Speaker 1: and we can then go back to sports and say, Okay, 461 00:26:22,364 --> 00:26:25,364 Speaker 1: these these things are not necessarily okay either. I'm talking 462 00:26:25,764 --> 00:26:28,084 Speaker 1: a lot in generalities right now, just because I want 463 00:26:28,124 --> 00:26:30,364 Speaker 1: to kind of lay out some of the points that 464 00:26:30,404 --> 00:26:31,444 Speaker 1: I think we should discuss. 465 00:26:32,204 --> 00:26:36,324 Speaker 2: Look, I think, you know, in some sorts, I think 466 00:26:36,324 --> 00:26:40,004 Speaker 2: it kind of almost cuts the other way that, like 467 00:26:40,044 --> 00:26:43,964 Speaker 2: there is economic value created. You know, you have more 468 00:26:44,004 --> 00:26:47,924 Speaker 2: market efficiency and less deadweight loss when you're allowed to 469 00:26:48,244 --> 00:26:50,484 Speaker 2: create on these things that move markets anyway instead of 470 00:26:50,484 --> 00:26:53,884 Speaker 2: having to go through proxies. And that's a very University 471 00:26:53,924 --> 00:26:58,964 Speaker 2: of Chicago economist hat thing to argue, Whereas I'm not 472 00:26:59,044 --> 00:27:03,244 Speaker 2: sure there's any value per se created by sports betting. 473 00:27:03,524 --> 00:27:05,804 Speaker 2: For some people, it's fun, for some people it's addictive. 474 00:27:05,884 --> 00:27:10,044 Speaker 2: It's a tough game to win, to be sure. So 475 00:27:10,284 --> 00:27:12,204 Speaker 2: I don't know, I mean, And there's also this argument 476 00:27:12,244 --> 00:27:14,564 Speaker 2: that if things are more regulated, then it's easier to 477 00:27:14,604 --> 00:27:18,804 Speaker 2: catch like market manipulation for better or worse draft kings, 478 00:27:18,844 --> 00:27:20,524 Speaker 2: and FanDuel can say, yeah, we he it was unusual 479 00:27:20,604 --> 00:27:24,324 Speaker 2: betting patterns. NBA, you should go investigate this, NFL should 480 00:27:24,364 --> 00:27:28,244 Speaker 2: go investigate this. If it's regulated versus occurring in like 481 00:27:28,324 --> 00:27:32,204 Speaker 2: offshore crypto markets and so forth. But anyway, I'm biased here. 482 00:27:32,444 --> 00:27:38,044 Speaker 2: I'm clearly biased. I like better, I like trading right, 483 00:27:38,084 --> 00:27:40,444 Speaker 2: and I cansult for one of these companies, So I'm 484 00:27:40,484 --> 00:27:44,404 Speaker 2: totally totally biased. But I've always thought the CFTC was 485 00:27:44,484 --> 00:27:45,404 Speaker 2: kind of nitty. 486 00:27:45,684 --> 00:27:48,044 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I can see that, but I can 487 00:27:48,124 --> 00:27:50,884 Speaker 1: also see the argument for if you are able to 488 00:27:51,004 --> 00:27:53,884 Speaker 1: manipulate markets for even for a short period of time. 489 00:27:54,284 --> 00:27:56,324 Speaker 1: And by the way, last week there was an attempt 490 00:27:56,404 --> 00:27:59,364 Speaker 1: to do this on poly market during the debates, right, 491 00:27:59,404 --> 00:28:03,764 Speaker 1: there was an attempt to improve Kamala Harris's odds over 492 00:28:03,764 --> 00:28:06,484 Speaker 1: a short period of time. One person bet over two 493 00:28:06,524 --> 00:28:09,604 Speaker 1: point five million to move the markets. It didn't end 494 00:28:09,644 --> 00:28:12,324 Speaker 1: up working, so the market ended up correcting. So this 495 00:28:12,444 --> 00:28:15,244 Speaker 1: is an argument in favor of self correcting markets. But 496 00:28:15,804 --> 00:28:18,364 Speaker 1: if you think about like a billionaire, right, who is 497 00:28:18,404 --> 00:28:21,124 Speaker 1: willing to put in more money and willing to kind 498 00:28:21,164 --> 00:28:23,884 Speaker 1: of do this in a more egregious way, even if 499 00:28:23,924 --> 00:28:28,644 Speaker 1: it does end up correcting eventually. We know that especially 500 00:28:28,684 --> 00:28:32,724 Speaker 1: in close selections, even rumors, even kind of things that say, 501 00:28:32,924 --> 00:28:35,924 Speaker 1: you know, these days you can actually open most not 502 00:28:36,084 --> 00:28:38,204 Speaker 1: most but a lot of news stories will actually say 503 00:28:38,204 --> 00:28:41,244 Speaker 1: the polymarket odds right, We'll say like Donald Trump is 504 00:28:41,284 --> 00:28:45,044 Speaker 1: at X, Kamala Harris's at why. So those things can 505 00:28:45,364 --> 00:28:50,084 Speaker 1: be self fulfilling prophecies. They can actually influence people's perceptions 506 00:28:50,124 --> 00:28:53,524 Speaker 1: of how something is going influence their behavior. There are 507 00:28:53,604 --> 00:28:58,044 Speaker 1: these cycles where like, just psychologically speaking, I think it's 508 00:28:58,044 --> 00:28:59,204 Speaker 1: something to think about. 509 00:29:00,324 --> 00:29:03,724 Speaker 2: Yeah, there are a couple of concerns here. What is 510 00:29:03,724 --> 00:29:07,884 Speaker 2: that Sometimes polymarket and other prediction markets, we'll have these 511 00:29:07,884 --> 00:29:12,124 Speaker 2: complicated derivative contracts, like you can predict will Harris be 512 00:29:12,164 --> 00:29:14,564 Speaker 2: ahead on poly market at X and Y time on 513 00:29:14,724 --> 00:29:18,004 Speaker 2: zmy day, and then it may be worth it to 514 00:29:18,044 --> 00:29:20,204 Speaker 2: try to move the markets that you win. The deritive 515 00:29:20,244 --> 00:29:22,804 Speaker 2: contract like stuff like that should probably get cleaned up. 516 00:29:24,004 --> 00:29:25,804 Speaker 2: And yeah, I mean, and there can be this kind 517 00:29:25,804 --> 00:29:32,444 Speaker 2: of circular literalism almost where where you know, people assume 518 00:29:32,564 --> 00:29:35,244 Speaker 2: the prediction markets are wise and then so actually one example, 519 00:29:35,924 --> 00:29:37,724 Speaker 2: you remember this, a couple of weeks ago, they were 520 00:29:37,804 --> 00:29:40,204 Speaker 2: rumors that there would be a special guest at the 521 00:29:40,444 --> 00:29:41,044 Speaker 2: Credit Convention. 522 00:29:41,124 --> 00:29:44,444 Speaker 1: People thought Beyonce was potentially gonna say that. That's thought 523 00:29:44,524 --> 00:29:46,204 Speaker 1: That's where it ended up going. 524 00:29:46,364 --> 00:29:49,004 Speaker 2: People thought Taylor Swift. People thought Beyonce right, and then 525 00:29:49,044 --> 00:29:52,484 Speaker 2: Beyonce was up to like ninety seven percent on polymarket, 526 00:29:53,724 --> 00:29:56,644 Speaker 2: and then TMZ releases a story where her spokesperson said, no, 527 00:29:56,764 --> 00:29:59,124 Speaker 2: she's not even in the it's not even in Chicago 528 00:29:59,244 --> 00:30:01,884 Speaker 2: right now, right, it's not happening. And that was a 529 00:30:01,924 --> 00:30:03,964 Speaker 2: case where people look at the prediction markets and said, boy, 530 00:30:04,044 --> 00:30:07,204 Speaker 2: they must know something. They must know something because they 531 00:30:07,244 --> 00:30:09,484 Speaker 2: have gotten other stuff right. They were smart about the 532 00:30:09,484 --> 00:30:13,564 Speaker 2: packed of the debates. They were smart about Harris. You know, 533 00:30:13,644 --> 00:30:17,244 Speaker 2: the day that Tim Walls was named Jos Shapiro. I 534 00:30:17,244 --> 00:30:19,444 Speaker 2: think they were. I know people were like scouting out 535 00:30:19,804 --> 00:30:23,004 Speaker 2: the Tim Walls residents or something. So they are. They 536 00:30:23,044 --> 00:30:24,924 Speaker 2: are remarkably right a lot of the time. And then 537 00:30:24,924 --> 00:30:28,444 Speaker 2: but sometimes you have this overconfident phenomenon where where people 538 00:30:28,444 --> 00:30:30,444 Speaker 2: think they're infallible and then and then there's a big 539 00:30:30,484 --> 00:30:33,164 Speaker 2: And this is true for other types of markets too, right. 540 00:30:33,284 --> 00:30:37,164 Speaker 2: I am not a complete believer in efficient market hypothesis. 541 00:30:37,724 --> 00:30:40,524 Speaker 1: Yeah. So, so if you think about, once again, the 542 00:30:40,724 --> 00:30:46,924 Speaker 1: repercussions when it's something that's more significant, right, like the elections, 543 00:30:47,124 --> 00:30:53,404 Speaker 1: like politics, I think that there is room obviously for 544 00:30:53,564 --> 00:30:56,244 Speaker 1: these type of markets to exist, and obviously there's an 545 00:30:56,324 --> 00:30:58,724 Speaker 1: argument that they exist already, right, So as you said, 546 00:30:58,764 --> 00:31:02,964 Speaker 1: regulate like allow them and and be strict about it. 547 00:31:03,364 --> 00:31:06,884 Speaker 1: But when you're talking about things like these derivatives, contracts, 548 00:31:06,884 --> 00:31:09,804 Speaker 1: all these secondary things, like, I think that we need 549 00:31:09,844 --> 00:31:12,404 Speaker 1: to have some rules in place, right, Like there's not 550 00:31:13,124 --> 00:31:18,524 Speaker 1: having allowing markets for political betting does not mean allowing 551 00:31:18,644 --> 00:31:23,084 Speaker 1: all markets on everything with every single type of financial instrument, right, 552 00:31:23,284 --> 00:31:25,724 Speaker 1: that one does not follow from the other. We can 553 00:31:25,764 --> 00:31:29,084 Speaker 1: have very specific rules even with crypto, right, like the 554 00:31:29,764 --> 00:31:33,644 Speaker 1: you've had we've talked about ethan bitcoin and you know 555 00:31:33,724 --> 00:31:36,764 Speaker 1: the very narrow like the path that they had to 556 00:31:36,764 --> 00:31:40,444 Speaker 1: go through, right to allow one very specific type of 557 00:31:40,524 --> 00:31:45,084 Speaker 1: financial instrument in order to be able to trade in proxy. Yeah. 558 00:31:45,164 --> 00:31:47,204 Speaker 2: Yeah, And this is true in sports betting markets too, 559 00:31:47,244 --> 00:31:50,884 Speaker 2: which is that there's so much pressure to offer so 560 00:31:51,004 --> 00:31:53,884 Speaker 2: many different derivatives of markets for every possible type of 561 00:31:53,924 --> 00:31:56,964 Speaker 2: event and things like that, and the more robust business 562 00:31:57,004 --> 00:31:58,364 Speaker 2: model is to kind of keep it simple, right, You 563 00:31:58,404 --> 00:32:01,164 Speaker 2: commit on you know, the money line and the point 564 00:32:01,164 --> 00:32:05,244 Speaker 2: spread and the total. If there's a player injury situation, 565 00:32:05,444 --> 00:32:07,884 Speaker 2: then they'll take it off the board instead of being 566 00:32:07,884 --> 00:32:10,524 Speaker 2: subject to inside information. They're not gonna let you bet 567 00:32:10,564 --> 00:32:13,244 Speaker 2: on things. This is again like the more robust, more 568 00:32:13,364 --> 00:32:17,444 Speaker 2: robust betting platforms like Circa, for example, which is known 569 00:32:17,484 --> 00:32:22,044 Speaker 2: for actually taking action from sharp winning players and properly 570 00:32:22,044 --> 00:32:26,684 Speaker 2: doing handicapping or bookmaking I should say, not handicapping. But 571 00:32:26,804 --> 00:32:28,644 Speaker 2: there's this pressure to like offer you eat, to bet 572 00:32:28,684 --> 00:32:31,084 Speaker 2: on everything and have this gicanic menu. It's often a 573 00:32:31,124 --> 00:32:32,844 Speaker 2: false front, right if you try to bet some of 574 00:32:32,884 --> 00:32:35,244 Speaker 2: the weird stuff on DraftKings or FanDuel, then you'll get 575 00:32:35,284 --> 00:32:39,964 Speaker 2: limited right away if you're any good. So keeping things 576 00:32:39,964 --> 00:32:42,484 Speaker 2: simple I think is a lesson here for everybody. 577 00:32:42,724 --> 00:32:47,964 Speaker 1: Yeah, keeping things simple and also potentially potentially limiting in 578 00:32:48,004 --> 00:32:50,324 Speaker 1: the moment things right, Like one of the one of 579 00:32:50,364 --> 00:32:54,364 Speaker 1: the issues with last week's attempt to manipulate the markets 580 00:32:54,484 --> 00:32:56,804 Speaker 1: was it was during the debate, right, they were trying 581 00:32:56,844 --> 00:32:59,444 Speaker 1: to keep those markets open during a very specific window. 582 00:32:59,884 --> 00:33:02,484 Speaker 1: It's like when you're allowed to play sports bets on 583 00:33:02,604 --> 00:33:06,604 Speaker 1: certain outcomes in the middle of a game, and they're 584 00:33:06,684 --> 00:33:10,124 Speaker 1: even you know, in some countries, like the sports bets 585 00:33:10,124 --> 00:33:12,564 Speaker 1: will actually pop up on your screen as you're watching 586 00:33:12,604 --> 00:33:14,604 Speaker 1: a game, and you can, you know, you can place 587 00:33:14,644 --> 00:33:16,644 Speaker 1: bets and you know, we know that if this appeals 588 00:33:16,644 --> 00:33:19,284 Speaker 1: to your djen Hart on some level. But I think 589 00:33:19,324 --> 00:33:22,724 Speaker 1: that especially when it comes to politics, limiting things like 590 00:33:22,804 --> 00:33:27,924 Speaker 1: that and trying to figure out, okay, what what is necessary? 591 00:33:28,844 --> 00:33:32,684 Speaker 1: What is least likely to be manipulated? How do we 592 00:33:32,884 --> 00:33:35,964 Speaker 1: place limits on manipulation? Right? Could it be that, like 593 00:33:36,204 --> 00:33:38,724 Speaker 1: you actually are not allowed to bet ten million dollars? 594 00:33:38,764 --> 00:33:41,244 Speaker 1: Can we Is that? Is that a thing? Or or 595 00:33:41,324 --> 00:33:42,164 Speaker 1: is that like not a thing? 596 00:33:42,244 --> 00:33:42,324 Speaker 2: Right? 597 00:33:42,364 --> 00:33:45,964 Speaker 1: Should we allow bets of any size on anything? You know? 598 00:33:46,044 --> 00:33:49,484 Speaker 1: How do we how do we play safely? Well? 599 00:33:49,724 --> 00:33:52,004 Speaker 2: The thing is, there's so much money in elections that 600 00:33:52,084 --> 00:33:54,724 Speaker 2: I mean, and there have, by the way, been so 601 00:33:54,844 --> 00:33:57,244 Speaker 2: in two thousand and eight. There are reports of people 602 00:33:57,244 --> 00:34:00,044 Speaker 2: trying to buy John McCain's stock, or buying John mccainstock 603 00:34:00,124 --> 00:34:03,724 Speaker 2: on prediction market platforms back then because it was a 604 00:34:03,764 --> 00:34:07,324 Speaker 2: relatively cheap way to move the media narrative. Right, you 605 00:34:07,364 --> 00:34:09,884 Speaker 2: spend a few thousand bucks and someone writes a story 606 00:34:09,884 --> 00:34:13,324 Speaker 2: about I'll look the smart traders know that McCain is 607 00:34:13,324 --> 00:34:18,044 Speaker 2: searching now on whatever it was back then. You know, 608 00:34:18,804 --> 00:34:20,804 Speaker 2: now that the volumes are more liquid, it's harder to 609 00:34:20,844 --> 00:34:24,364 Speaker 2: do that. You can't really like spend a thousand bucks 610 00:34:24,364 --> 00:34:25,924 Speaker 2: and have any lasting effect. 611 00:34:26,084 --> 00:34:30,404 Speaker 1: But yeah, but you can spend millions and have an effect. Right, 612 00:34:30,444 --> 00:34:34,844 Speaker 1: we did see that they did. Like I said, and 613 00:34:34,924 --> 00:34:36,564 Speaker 1: I just keep going to last week because it just 614 00:34:36,604 --> 00:34:39,364 Speaker 1: happened last week. Right, this is just something that's easily 615 00:34:39,364 --> 00:34:42,684 Speaker 1: accessible to my mind. The two and a half million 616 00:34:42,804 --> 00:34:46,244 Speaker 1: and those few beds did move the markets, right, they did, correct, 617 00:34:46,284 --> 00:34:48,524 Speaker 1: But now, like let's assume it was on something that 618 00:34:48,644 --> 00:34:52,324 Speaker 1: was more more important. I do think that we just 619 00:34:52,364 --> 00:34:55,364 Speaker 1: need to figure out, you know, how do we take 620 00:34:55,404 --> 00:34:57,844 Speaker 1: this into account, How are we aware of this, How 621 00:34:57,844 --> 00:35:00,404 Speaker 1: do we make sure that, you know, we can have 622 00:35:00,564 --> 00:35:06,884 Speaker 1: markets that actually reflect real sentiment opinion, so they do clear, 623 00:35:06,964 --> 00:35:09,764 Speaker 1: you know, so that they are put your own money 624 00:35:09,764 --> 00:35:12,324 Speaker 1: where your mouth as types of things, as opposed to 625 00:35:12,444 --> 00:35:14,924 Speaker 1: how do I make more money by trying to kind 626 00:35:14,924 --> 00:35:17,724 Speaker 1: of manipulate this for a short period of time, or 627 00:35:17,764 --> 00:35:20,404 Speaker 1: how do I get my preferred candidate to win by 628 00:35:20,804 --> 00:35:23,884 Speaker 1: you know, putting one hundred million in the prediction markets 629 00:35:24,244 --> 00:35:28,164 Speaker 1: on my candidate, moving the narrative, getting those stories and 630 00:35:28,484 --> 00:35:31,884 Speaker 1: actually in a very very tight election where we're talking 631 00:35:31,884 --> 00:35:34,524 Speaker 1: about you know, one point lead here, one point lead there, 632 00:35:35,804 --> 00:35:38,444 Speaker 1: where something like that might actually, as we know, as 633 00:35:38,444 --> 00:35:41,964 Speaker 1: we know with Pokernate, you know, every every little piece 634 00:35:42,004 --> 00:35:44,284 Speaker 1: of a percentage matters when you're talking about it. 635 00:35:44,564 --> 00:35:49,644 Speaker 2: So very it's also very directionally unclear though, why you 636 00:35:49,684 --> 00:35:52,084 Speaker 2: even care that much about the narrative. It's it's not 637 00:35:52,164 --> 00:35:54,924 Speaker 2: clear that it you know, whether it makes people complacent 638 00:35:55,004 --> 00:35:56,844 Speaker 2: or makes people turn out or whatever else, it's not 639 00:35:57,004 --> 00:36:00,204 Speaker 2: entirely clear. That's funny thing true. You've had this funny 640 00:36:00,204 --> 00:36:03,404 Speaker 2: thing where, you know, when Harris, now she's been moving 641 00:36:03,404 --> 00:36:04,924 Speaker 2: back up in the forecast, but a period of a 642 00:36:04,924 --> 00:36:06,884 Speaker 2: week or two ago, when she was moving down in 643 00:36:06,964 --> 00:36:10,524 Speaker 2: the Silver bulletin forecast, you had both Trump and Harris 644 00:36:10,524 --> 00:36:12,724 Speaker 2: citing the forecast. Trump said that Nate still Ryer's a 645 00:36:12,764 --> 00:36:14,404 Speaker 2: pretty smart guy, which is not what he said about 646 00:36:14,444 --> 00:36:17,484 Speaker 2: him four years ago. Meanwhile, the Harris campaign is blasting 647 00:36:17,484 --> 00:36:19,844 Speaker 2: out the forecast and saying, look, we're the underdogs in 648 00:36:19,844 --> 00:36:22,724 Speaker 2: this race, trying to manage expectations. That speaks to the 649 00:36:22,764 --> 00:36:28,084 Speaker 2: different personality types between Democrats and Republicans. But people, you know, 650 00:36:28,164 --> 00:36:29,684 Speaker 2: I think there are a lot of can I use 651 00:36:29,684 --> 00:36:32,604 Speaker 2: this term, a lot of losers out there who are 652 00:36:32,764 --> 00:36:35,764 Speaker 2: mistaken winning the news cycle or yunking on somebody for 653 00:36:35,844 --> 00:36:38,164 Speaker 2: winning the election, and they often have nothing to do 654 00:36:38,644 --> 00:36:41,844 Speaker 2: with one another. You know, the more you can chill 655 00:36:41,844 --> 00:36:43,564 Speaker 2: out and be looking toward the long term what's your 656 00:36:43,564 --> 00:36:46,244 Speaker 2: long term strategy for November, and the better off you 657 00:36:46,284 --> 00:36:48,524 Speaker 2: are than trying to like win the day quote unquote. 658 00:36:49,084 --> 00:36:55,684 Speaker 1: Do we know whether voter turnout is affected by your 659 00:36:55,724 --> 00:36:59,724 Speaker 1: perception of how close the election is versus how well 660 00:36:59,804 --> 00:37:03,324 Speaker 1: your candidate is doing? Because you know, if you think 661 00:37:03,444 --> 00:37:07,404 Speaker 1: back to Hillary Clinton versus Trump, because she was such 662 00:37:07,444 --> 00:37:10,204 Speaker 1: a favorite, even though we know that in your model, 663 00:37:10,484 --> 00:37:13,204 Speaker 1: Trump had a twenty eight twenty eight percent yes correct 664 00:37:13,484 --> 00:37:17,404 Speaker 1: chance of winning that you know that you're less likely 665 00:37:17,444 --> 00:37:19,244 Speaker 1: to vote because you'll say, oh, you know, it doesn't 666 00:37:19,284 --> 00:37:22,604 Speaker 1: really matter that much. Like do we have do we 667 00:37:22,644 --> 00:37:24,484 Speaker 1: have good data on how that works? 668 00:37:25,244 --> 00:37:28,404 Speaker 2: There's data that turnout is higher the closer the polls are. 669 00:37:29,764 --> 00:37:32,644 Speaker 2: Whether that's because of the polls or not is hard 670 00:37:32,684 --> 00:37:35,204 Speaker 2: to know. So yeah, in swing states they tend to 671 00:37:35,204 --> 00:37:38,844 Speaker 2: have holding other factors equal higher turnout. I mean, you know, 672 00:37:38,884 --> 00:37:42,164 Speaker 2: again we don't know how exogenous or indogenous this is. Yea, 673 00:37:42,284 --> 00:37:44,884 Speaker 2: the campaigns spend more in those states and knock on 674 00:37:44,964 --> 00:37:48,004 Speaker 2: more doors, and there's more advertising and the candid's visit 675 00:37:48,324 --> 00:37:51,884 Speaker 2: and all those things. Right, there's more infrastructure. So so 676 00:37:51,924 --> 00:37:54,204 Speaker 2: the causality is hard to know, but there is that 677 00:37:54,244 --> 00:37:55,004 Speaker 2: pattern for sure. 678 00:37:55,284 --> 00:37:58,404 Speaker 1: So in that sense, that's where the narratives end up 679 00:37:58,404 --> 00:38:02,084 Speaker 1: mattering a little bit, right, where if we can depending 680 00:38:02,084 --> 00:38:06,444 Speaker 1: on how we can frame the cycle, frame how close 681 00:38:06,484 --> 00:38:09,964 Speaker 1: the election is, who's ahead, who's behind. Potentially, right, it 682 00:38:10,044 --> 00:38:14,524 Speaker 1: might affect a thousand voters, two thousand voters, but sometimes 683 00:38:14,524 --> 00:38:16,684 Speaker 1: that's all you need. I know that in the midterm 684 00:38:16,684 --> 00:38:22,124 Speaker 1: election in Nevada, during which I voted not a not 685 00:38:22,324 --> 00:38:26,124 Speaker 1: a not a secret voted for the Democrats, the Democrats 686 00:38:27,084 --> 00:38:28,924 Speaker 1: ended up carrying some of those seats by a few 687 00:38:28,924 --> 00:38:31,484 Speaker 1: thousand votes. I think it was like two thousand something, right, 688 00:38:31,524 --> 00:38:35,124 Speaker 1: It was like tiny and and that's when you realize, 689 00:38:35,164 --> 00:38:38,444 Speaker 1: oh wow, like it actually does matter exactly how many 690 00:38:38,444 --> 00:38:42,204 Speaker 1: people went out to the polls. Once again, I as 691 00:38:42,244 --> 00:38:45,044 Speaker 1: you know, I am all for prediction markets, I'm for 692 00:38:45,364 --> 00:38:48,564 Speaker 1: betting on outcomes. I just think that, you know, these 693 00:38:48,564 --> 00:38:51,844 Speaker 1: are all really important questions and we should be looking 694 00:38:51,844 --> 00:38:54,724 Speaker 1: at just like you look at Alaska, Alaska, Alaska. We 695 00:38:54,764 --> 00:38:58,564 Speaker 1: should consider edge cases, We should consider these spots where 696 00:38:58,564 --> 00:39:01,244 Speaker 1: it might affect a tiny fraction of people, but that 697 00:39:01,284 --> 00:39:03,884 Speaker 1: tiny fraction is enough in swing states. You know, these 698 00:39:03,924 --> 00:39:06,284 Speaker 1: are these are things that we should talk about still, 699 00:39:06,604 --> 00:39:09,604 Speaker 1: even if it's not very likely. So let's say a 700 00:39:09,604 --> 00:39:14,764 Speaker 1: break and then onto lighter things like air conditioning. 701 00:39:34,284 --> 00:39:36,884 Speaker 2: Some Maria, I've been traveling. I was in London a 702 00:39:36,924 --> 00:39:39,684 Speaker 2: week and a half ago. I was in Wyoming for 703 00:39:39,804 --> 00:39:42,204 Speaker 2: last week's episode. Now I'm in San Francisco. The result, 704 00:39:42,244 --> 00:39:44,444 Speaker 2: I'm like jet lagged in both directions, and it's just 705 00:39:45,004 --> 00:39:49,324 Speaker 2: completely random. When I get hungry. Sometimes I'm like starving 706 00:39:49,364 --> 00:39:51,244 Speaker 2: at like five in the morning, and then not all 707 00:39:51,284 --> 00:39:54,164 Speaker 2: hungry during regular people hours anyway. So I have not 708 00:39:54,324 --> 00:39:57,644 Speaker 2: been in on the gospel your air conditioning situations. I 709 00:39:57,644 --> 00:39:59,124 Speaker 2: just want you to take it away. What is going 710 00:39:59,164 --> 00:40:01,444 Speaker 2: on with your ac Nate. 711 00:40:01,524 --> 00:40:05,204 Speaker 1: You've been to my house in New York, and you 712 00:40:05,284 --> 00:40:08,124 Speaker 1: know that we used to not have air conditioning. We 713 00:40:08,324 --> 00:40:10,284 Speaker 1: you know, it's an old round stone. We had window 714 00:40:10,364 --> 00:40:13,284 Speaker 1: units and that is how we air conditioned our apartment. 715 00:40:14,284 --> 00:40:17,444 Speaker 1: And you know, New York summers have been getting quite 716 00:40:17,484 --> 00:40:21,884 Speaker 1: hot and quite sticky, and this was just getting more 717 00:40:21,964 --> 00:40:25,244 Speaker 1: and more unbearable. I thought, I was doing something really 718 00:40:25,284 --> 00:40:28,404 Speaker 1: good and finally upgrading our you know, old apartment that 719 00:40:28,484 --> 00:40:32,724 Speaker 1: had window units, two split AC units that get installed 720 00:40:32,724 --> 00:40:37,244 Speaker 1: in the wall. Much more efficient, much nicer. Fast forward 721 00:40:37,284 --> 00:40:40,364 Speaker 1: to today. We weren't there when these units got installed. 722 00:40:40,604 --> 00:40:42,604 Speaker 1: Two of them were great. There are three rooms in 723 00:40:42,644 --> 00:40:45,524 Speaker 1: my apartment. The one in the bedroom not so great. 724 00:40:46,044 --> 00:40:48,804 Speaker 1: There is a pump that will not shut. 725 00:40:48,524 --> 00:40:49,284 Speaker 2: The suck up. 726 00:40:49,884 --> 00:40:52,884 Speaker 1: This is the loudest water pump you have ever heard. 727 00:40:53,364 --> 00:40:55,324 Speaker 2: It's just you imitate it. Can you imitate it? 728 00:40:56,444 --> 00:40:57,724 Speaker 1: Glug glug? 729 00:40:58,524 --> 00:41:03,444 Speaker 2: Okay, okay, all right, yeah. 730 00:41:02,684 --> 00:41:05,364 Speaker 1: Very good and very loud. And it does it all 731 00:41:05,404 --> 00:41:07,844 Speaker 1: the time, so not just when there's water in it. 732 00:41:07,884 --> 00:41:09,684 Speaker 1: The reason it's so loud is that it does it 733 00:41:09,724 --> 00:41:13,684 Speaker 1: when there's no water at it either. So anyway, completely 734 00:41:13,724 --> 00:41:17,324 Speaker 1: faulty needs to be replaced. Has not been patched up 735 00:41:17,364 --> 00:41:20,084 Speaker 1: because we complained immediately when when. 736 00:41:20,444 --> 00:41:21,004 Speaker 2: We saw this. 737 00:41:21,164 --> 00:41:25,204 Speaker 1: So our bedroom is just one big gaping hole, holes 738 00:41:25,204 --> 00:41:28,364 Speaker 1: in the wall, holes in the ceiling, you know, exposed insulation, 739 00:41:28,804 --> 00:41:32,204 Speaker 1: and this fucking pump which makes it impossible to sleep. 740 00:41:32,284 --> 00:41:34,884 Speaker 1: And so basically there's no ACA in the bedroom. You 741 00:41:34,924 --> 00:41:38,804 Speaker 1: cannot run that thing because it is so damn loud. 742 00:41:38,884 --> 00:41:41,404 Speaker 1: And I honestly, like, I do not know what to 743 00:41:41,444 --> 00:41:44,284 Speaker 1: do because when I told them multiple times that this 744 00:41:44,324 --> 00:41:46,844 Speaker 1: needs to happen, the latest is that it will not 745 00:41:46,964 --> 00:41:50,604 Speaker 1: happen until mid October, by which point I will be 746 00:41:50,844 --> 00:41:53,044 Speaker 1: long gone in Las Vegas, which is. 747 00:41:52,964 --> 00:41:55,524 Speaker 2: My I got right. I got news for Maria, got 748 00:41:55,604 --> 00:41:57,164 Speaker 2: news for you. It gets a little cold, and I 749 00:41:57,204 --> 00:41:59,204 Speaker 2: don't know what boys I'm doing here. It gets cold 750 00:41:59,244 --> 00:42:00,804 Speaker 2: by October. Who cares about our conditioning? 751 00:42:01,724 --> 00:42:04,124 Speaker 1: No one cares about a sea by October. But we 752 00:42:04,164 --> 00:42:06,724 Speaker 1: do care about the fact that our walls and ceilings 753 00:42:06,764 --> 00:42:10,964 Speaker 1: are wide open and the insulation and it is completely exposed. 754 00:42:11,324 --> 00:42:15,884 Speaker 1: And we live in on the top floor of a 755 00:42:15,924 --> 00:42:20,044 Speaker 1: tiny walk up, so this actually does matter because the 756 00:42:20,044 --> 00:42:23,924 Speaker 1: insulation in this building ain't the best. So Nate, like, 757 00:42:24,084 --> 00:42:27,044 Speaker 1: I honestly do not know, Like, what is my plus 758 00:42:27,164 --> 00:42:30,164 Speaker 1: EV move? What am I supposed to do to try 759 00:42:30,204 --> 00:42:34,564 Speaker 1: to get this AC installed as quickly as possible and 760 00:42:34,684 --> 00:42:36,324 Speaker 1: just get this work done. 761 00:42:36,564 --> 00:42:38,244 Speaker 2: Yeah, there's some case where they kind of have you 762 00:42:38,324 --> 00:42:40,564 Speaker 2: by the tail. I was gonna say, of the balls, 763 00:42:40,604 --> 00:42:41,684 Speaker 2: but I don't want to genderize it. 764 00:42:42,484 --> 00:42:44,404 Speaker 1: They they can have you buy the balls. I'm cool 765 00:42:44,444 --> 00:42:44,644 Speaker 1: with it. 766 00:42:45,484 --> 00:42:47,724 Speaker 2: Uh Yeah, it was in a TSA situation. So the 767 00:42:47,764 --> 00:42:50,524 Speaker 2: TSA doesn't always like it when you bring your podcasts 768 00:42:51,204 --> 00:42:55,044 Speaker 2: equipment through the planet. They don't like your mics or whatever, right, 769 00:42:55,084 --> 00:42:56,804 Speaker 2: and so there was just like long line. There was 770 00:42:56,844 --> 00:43:00,164 Speaker 2: some guy who decided to bring a knife, like a 771 00:43:00,404 --> 00:43:03,644 Speaker 2: dual sided knife in his carry on luggage, which you know, 772 00:43:03,724 --> 00:43:06,444 Speaker 2: some German fellow. That seems like a pretty bad idea 773 00:43:06,524 --> 00:43:09,724 Speaker 2: at a major commercial airport. Has caused a big delay, 774 00:43:09,724 --> 00:43:11,244 Speaker 2: And I'm like, I could complain about this, but that's 775 00:43:11,244 --> 00:43:13,964 Speaker 2: just gonna make it worse, right, there's no saying nothing 776 00:43:14,404 --> 00:43:17,084 Speaker 2: is the only plus EV play in that situation. I 777 00:43:17,124 --> 00:43:19,204 Speaker 2: think if they have you by the balls, then you 778 00:43:19,364 --> 00:43:20,124 Speaker 2: got to you gotta. 779 00:43:20,244 --> 00:43:22,124 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think they kind of have us by the balls, 780 00:43:22,284 --> 00:43:24,564 Speaker 1: and there's there's really nothing that I can do and 781 00:43:24,604 --> 00:43:26,604 Speaker 1: it but it's awful. I feel like I should be 782 00:43:26,644 --> 00:43:29,404 Speaker 1: able to do something like maybe get someone else to 783 00:43:29,404 --> 00:43:31,284 Speaker 1: finish it, but then that someone else is going to 784 00:43:31,404 --> 00:43:33,924 Speaker 1: charge you know, another another arm and a lug to 785 00:43:33,924 --> 00:43:36,884 Speaker 1: do the replacement work and fix this. And I just 786 00:43:37,484 --> 00:43:39,644 Speaker 1: it's very rare for me to be in a situation 787 00:43:39,684 --> 00:43:43,324 Speaker 1: where just it seems like there's no plus EV outcome right, 788 00:43:43,444 --> 00:43:46,084 Speaker 1: Like I just I wanted to do something good for 789 00:43:46,164 --> 00:43:49,004 Speaker 1: the apartment, to make it more livable, and at the 790 00:43:49,124 --> 00:43:51,124 Speaker 1: end of the day, it's a million times worse than 791 00:43:51,164 --> 00:43:55,884 Speaker 1: the situation we had before, and and my decision making 792 00:43:55,924 --> 00:43:59,124 Speaker 1: mind wants there to be a decision calculus that says, 793 00:43:59,204 --> 00:44:02,084 Speaker 1: uh huh, this is the correct branch of the decision tree. 794 00:44:02,324 --> 00:44:04,284 Speaker 1: But it seems like the correct branch, as you say, 795 00:44:04,324 --> 00:44:06,444 Speaker 1: is just saying nothing and hoping for the best and 796 00:44:06,844 --> 00:44:09,084 Speaker 1: trying to be nice, which is what I've done. But 797 00:44:09,164 --> 00:44:13,044 Speaker 1: being nice has gotten me absolutely nowhere so far. 798 00:44:13,884 --> 00:44:16,684 Speaker 2: Sometimes, Maria, there are only negative V moves and you 799 00:44:16,684 --> 00:44:18,404 Speaker 2: have to pick the least negative EV move. 800 00:44:18,924 --> 00:44:25,644 Speaker 1: That's not what I want to do to say. 801 00:44:25,844 --> 00:44:28,604 Speaker 2: Risky Business is hosted by me Nate Silver and. 802 00:44:28,604 --> 00:44:29,724 Speaker 1: Me Maria Kanakova. 803 00:44:30,084 --> 00:44:33,604 Speaker 2: This episode was produced by Isabel Carter. Our associate producer 804 00:44:33,684 --> 00:44:37,724 Speaker 2: is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our engineer is Sarah Bruger. Our 805 00:44:37,724 --> 00:44:39,644 Speaker 2: executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. 806 00:44:39,804 --> 00:44:41,524 Speaker 1: If you want to listen to an ad free version, 807 00:44:41,604 --> 00:44:44,284 Speaker 1: sign up for Pushkin Plus for six ninety nine a month. 808 00:44:44,364 --> 00:44:47,324 Speaker 1: You get access to ad free listening. Thanks for tuning in.