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Speaker 2: A joy to having the studios right now. Rebecca Patterson
Speaker 2: with all of her work working with a trust, the Bessemer,
Speaker 2: and also of course I worked with JP Morgan Ages
Speaker 2: Ago and with a small shop up in Connecticut called Bridgewater.
Speaker 2: She came in because it gets too cold, you know,
Speaker 2: like for like two weeks. Yeah, Connecticut can get like
Speaker 2: the Dakota have.
Speaker 3: Good coffee for the beverages.
Speaker 2: We don't all We have a beverage of your choice
Speaker 2: and we'll give you a Titos and tang give packed
Speaker 2: when you leave. You wrote any ft about everything you do,
Speaker 2: just a comeback to the foundation of a dollar is
Speaker 2: a dollar under threat after the foolishness of the last.
Speaker 4: Number of days, I think the important thing about the
Speaker 4: dollar is time frame and degree. You know, a lot
Speaker 4: of the media coverage this week with the threats of
Speaker 4: possible military intervention to acquire Greenland against its will, and
Speaker 4: then the backing off it. You saw some market reaction,
Speaker 4: but it was really just a one day sell America
Speaker 4: and everyone's saying, well, gosh, no one sold treasuries. Everything's fine,
Speaker 4: it's all hype. I'm like, no, it's not. It's time frame.
Speaker 4: What we're seeing is a slow erosion of confidence in
Speaker 4: dollar based assets. This is something that will play out
Speaker 4: over years, not a day or a week or a month,
Speaker 4: but it's happening. We saw news this week that Sweden's
Speaker 4: largest private pension fund is reducing significantly it's treasury holdings.
Speaker 4: And yes, Denmark is not a large country, but they're
Speaker 4: getting rid of their treasuries. There's more to come.
Speaker 2: I mean, Paul, can you I just love it having
Speaker 2: Rebecca and could you just say the poor soul who
Speaker 2: had three martinis in the city in London goes back
Speaker 2: to the desk in a major bank calls up when
Speaker 2: the phony goes celibate exactly.
Speaker 5: So how do we I mean, what does that mean
Speaker 5: for the dollar?
Speaker 2: Here?
Speaker 5: We had did the dollar sell from early last year, yep,
Speaker 5: that it could stabilized and actually had decent second half
Speaker 5: of the year.
Speaker 2: Here is that dollars still at risk?
Speaker 3: Do you think modest risk this year.
Speaker 4: So you know, there are a lot of factors that
Speaker 4: come together that drive currency markets. Part of it is
Speaker 4: cross border capital and trade flows. Part of it is
Speaker 4: expectations for interest rates to the relative yield of a currency.
Speaker 4: What helped the dollar in part and the second half
Speaker 4: of last year we didn't see as much hedging action,
Speaker 4: so foreign or US investors hedging out dollar risk. And
Speaker 4: then we also saw a reduction in expectations for FED
Speaker 4: rate cuts i e. Relatively higher rates, and that also
Speaker 4: gave us support to the dollar this year. You know,
Speaker 4: given how strong the US economy is at a high level,
Speaker 4: and given sticky inflation, which you talked about earlier this morning,
Speaker 4: it's going to be hard for the Federal Reserve to
Speaker 4: cut much unless something drastic changes. So that is going
Speaker 4: to prevent the dollar from weakening a lot. The dollar
Speaker 4: hedging the diversification, Like I said, this is kind of
Speaker 4: a slow drip, drip drip. This isn't a sudden flood.
Speaker 4: So I wouldn't be shocked to see a stable or
Speaker 4: maybe slightly lower dollar this year.
Speaker 5: Well, given that backdrop, the global geopolitical backdrop, I guess
Speaker 5: it's no surprise that we've seen gold been ripping, Yes,
Speaker 5: like crazy, that's still kind of the place.
Speaker 4: Yeah, So to me, that's the most obvious reflection of
Speaker 4: the diversification trade that's taking place. We know some of
Speaker 4: it is investors, and those could be speculative investors as well.
Speaker 4: But underlying that, we continue to see central bank demand.
Speaker 4: Central banks diversifying slowly but surely out of the US
Speaker 4: looking for other liquid assets. You talk to my good
Speaker 4: friend Mark Sobel at omfif the World Gold Council. Both
Speaker 4: of them do really good surveys of central banks every year,
Speaker 4: asking them what do you intend to do going forward,
Speaker 4: and the data shows that they're going to keep buying gold.
Speaker 2: I was not expected a meeting of the President of
Speaker 2: the United States with mister Zelenski of Ukraine clearly off
Speaker 2: the radar given yesterday's festivities. Mister Zelenski now speaking at
Speaker 2: the meetings of the World Economic Forum and Davos. Our
Speaker 2: team there will give you all that coverage. We'll look
Speaker 2: for the headlines here and bring them to you when
Speaker 2: we can. I look at your counsel and foreign relations.
Speaker 2: I mean froman hasn't slept in six days. It's nuts.
Speaker 2: Everyone's publishing. I know you're going to publish and give
Speaker 2: us a head start on that, But I look back
Speaker 2: to back in the Foreign Affairs magazine Elizabeth Economy on
Speaker 2: the international relations of the Arctic Ocean, and then you
Speaker 2: followed up with your senior fellow on China. With all
Speaker 2: that's going on in the frenzy, it's CFR. What are
Speaker 2: you focused on most? What does Rebecca Patterson study?
Speaker 4: I always look at the intersection of geopolitics, the economy,
Speaker 4: and financial markets because they all influence each other. One
Speaker 4: of the things I'm looking at now ahead of the
Speaker 4: Supreme Court decision about US tariffs is if we reduce
Speaker 4: the tariffs, take them off, shift them around, how does
Speaker 4: that translate into the affordability narrative in the United States?
Speaker 4: If tariffs are removed, do we actually see any price
Speaker 4: change that benefits you as consumers? How does that play
Speaker 4: out in the midterm election. So again, as looking at
Speaker 4: all these connections, So that is a piece of work
Speaker 4: I'm working on right now because I think we should
Speaker 4: get the Supreme Court decision fairly shortly. So that's one
Speaker 4: I think. The other one I'm trying to spend time
Speaker 4: on is the Federal Reserve. So we know we're going
Speaker 4: to get an announcement probably in the next week or
Speaker 4: so with the next nominee. But I never, none of
Speaker 4: us ever had to think about the legal intricacies of
Speaker 4: the FED before. Now I'm trying to understand things like,
Speaker 4: could you see not only two hundred billion buying of
Speaker 4: mortgage backed securities? Could you see a trillion mortgage?
Speaker 2: Paul's got eight questions? Let me be rooting in a
Speaker 2: rum once more a bestmer trust ages ago. Yep, you
Speaker 2: don't go to cash? I mean, with all the cacophony
Speaker 2: you just mentioned, how do you handle this news at
Speaker 2: CFR and where else? How do you do it and
Speaker 2: not go to cash?
Speaker 4: Well, I think the big takeaway for me is that
Speaker 4: while treasuries US government bonds still act as a diversifier
Speaker 4: in a portfolio, you can't expect them to work as
Speaker 4: effectively as they have for the last several decades. So
Speaker 4: when you diversify a portfolio, you have to think about
Speaker 4: it differently. That is part of the support for gold prices,
Speaker 4: which is extraordinary. It's part of why we see people
Speaker 4: going into alternatives more different types of alternative assets, and
Speaker 4: I think it's part of why again. So far this
Speaker 4: year we're seeing foreign markets out performing the US, So
Speaker 4: it's asset diversification, geographic diversification. But you're right, Tom, getting
Speaker 4: out of the markets given that risk assets outperform diverse
Speaker 4: fine assets eight years out of ten, because the economy
Speaker 4: is growing eight years out of ten. So to get
Speaker 4: out to react to the geopolitical headlines, you're doing yourself
Speaker 4: a disservice in balls.
Speaker 2: You know, you got to get back in. I mean
Speaker 2: I was in cash, but I took the leverage away
Speaker 2: and I went further to cash two or three days ago. Fine, No,
Speaker 2: I'm hammered I missed this.
Speaker 4: No, I mean even professional investors, the smartest ones in
Speaker 4: the world, timing when to get in and out is
Speaker 4: a fool's errand that's why you stay in the market.
Speaker 4: You just make tactical shifts on the margin.
Speaker 5: All the news this week, coming out of Davos, coming
Speaker 5: out of Greenland, we kind of forgot about. Japan had
Speaker 5: a little bit of a problem in their bond market
Speaker 5: earlier this week. That's spook people big time earlier in
Speaker 5: the week. Yes, that's just a technical thing. Should we
Speaker 5: not worry about it?
Speaker 4: Is there any contangent issue there, yes, yes, yes, so
Speaker 4: yes you should worry about it. Yes, there is contagion.
Speaker 4: I'm talking about US treasuries and are we going to
Speaker 4: have enough buyers to meet the amount of supply we
Speaker 4: have to issue to pay for our deficits. But it's
Speaker 4: important to remember over the last twenty or so years,
Speaker 4: global bond markets have gotten much more integrated. People own
Speaker 4: global bonds, not just their own countries bonds today, and
Speaker 4: that means something that happens in Japan or France or
Speaker 4: the UK can and will affect the US treasury market also.
Speaker 4: So we do need to care about Japan, what the
Speaker 4: Bank of Japan does at its next meeting, which I
Speaker 4: believe is tonight, right. And then of course Prime Minister
Speaker 4: Takeichi when she has this snap election, do we see
Speaker 4: additional stimulus after that? How does that make people think
Speaker 4: about the fiscal dynamics.
Speaker 5: So again I come back to I have to buy
Speaker 5: US treasuries, buy treasuries in gold.
Speaker 3: No no, no, no, no no.
Speaker 4: Look, I'm not saying dump all your treasuries by any stretch,
Speaker 4: but you want to think more diversified. It's been fascinating
Speaker 4: to me to see that you are seeing institutional investors
Speaker 4: looking at more fiscally sound bond markets today, So countries
Speaker 4: that don't have those big debt difficulties looking at.
Speaker 2: Hell the boat in Germany. Is that what I'm hearing here?
Speaker 4: I mean some of the some of the European bond
Speaker 4: markets are attractive. Canada, Australia relatively better, Norway, Singapore. The
Speaker 4: problem is these markets don't have as much liquidity, so
Speaker 4: that's only so far it can take you. But you
Speaker 4: do want to have a global basket of bonds and
Speaker 4: emerging markets. EM is the new DM, So emerging market
Speaker 4: fiscal dynamics today are much better than they've been in general.
Speaker 4: I'm not talking about every country for a long time.
Speaker 2: Should we steal that phrase? EM is the new DM,
Speaker 2: or DM is the new You got to go nerd
Speaker 2: on your back to foreign exchange with JP Morgan here,
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm sorry, the Japanese mess, when it goes
Speaker 2: to me, is wildly nonlinear. Discuss the jump condition we
Speaker 2: could see in Japan. I fit on ravels well.
Speaker 4: The JGB market, the Japanese government bond market is not
Speaker 4: the most liquid bond market, to say the least. So
Speaker 4: to your point, Tom, the risk of a jump right
Speaker 4: of a big move, and we saw a bit of
Speaker 4: that on Tuesday, another one of those happening. You will
Speaker 4: have contagion to the Japanese stock market, and a lot
Speaker 4: of investors have added Japanese exposure over the last fifteen
Speaker 4: eighteen months, so there's contagion risk there that could come
Speaker 4: back and affect global markets.
Speaker 2: With a cold coming. I mean Rebecca and I live
Speaker 2: in the same neighborhood. I mean Rebecca, Saturday eleven above
Speaker 2: zero on the east side of Central Park, I mean
Speaker 2: ten degrees on Tuesday. It's even worse next week. How
Speaker 2: much wind do you need to take an uber the
Speaker 2: three blocks you need to walk? Gee? Is it like
Speaker 2: two miles an hour? Or do you need to see
Speaker 2: ten or fist?
Speaker 4: I'm just toting not to go outside at all. God
Speaker 4: bless Zoom and teams in the delivery Ectly. I'm going
Speaker 4: to be making a lot of soup, I think Saturday
Speaker 4: morning I'm going to be stocking up.
Speaker 2: With it's a favorite soup.
Speaker 4: My favorite is butternut squash. But I a good homemade
Speaker 4: tomato cream of tomato soup, and I'm going to play
Speaker 4: with some lentils. I think this weekend.
Speaker 2: There you go. See it's at nine o'clock hour a
Speaker 2: lexus where you just go into the food.
Speaker 6: Said, but you know what yesterday I made ago lemono.
Speaker 6: It's a Greek and lemon soup. I'll give you the restaurant.
Speaker 2: You know, the Greek restaurant on York Avenue. It starts
Speaker 2: with a why it's.
Speaker 6: Phenomenal, yesie, yes, yes, yes, I think that's it. I
Speaker 6: have to look out. I know what I can picture.
Speaker 6: I get that soup fantastic. I call it super lexus.
Speaker 2: It's great. So you can you bring in like lemon
Speaker 2: Greek potatoes.
Speaker 6: I can do that.
Speaker 2: Are they delicious? I tried to cook them like eight
Speaker 2: times and I'm going.
Speaker 6: To get dried out, and yeah, I'm a failure.
Speaker 4: See this is one of the many reasons I love Bloomberg.
Speaker 4: I have great conversations with you all. I never know
Speaker 4: where it's going. And when I'm done, you have this
Speaker 4: amazing food and coffee spread upstairs.
Speaker 2: It is a little treat. Well, mister Bloomberg's. People stopped
Speaker 2: by today said is it true Rebecca Patterson's and I
Speaker 2: said yes, I said, They said, well, the cheese it's
Speaker 2: outson thank you so much. The counts on foreign relations
Speaker 2: or a recent essay in the Financial Times and the challenges,
Speaker 2: including important quotes there from the pension system of Denmark
Speaker 2: as well. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming
Speaker 2: up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 2: We are privileged now, whatever your politics, after what we
Speaker 2: saw yesterday, here to pick up the pieces. Wendy Shiller,
Speaker 2: Professor of Chaos, Brown University. Wendy, is there a permanent
Speaker 2: change in the diplomacy of the United States after Trump?
Speaker 2: Is this the way it's going to be? Well, I
Speaker 2: don't know.
Speaker 7: You know, we have to say permanent when we talk
Speaker 7: about American politics. But the president is simultaneously projecting power,
Speaker 7: but not in the way that I think europe is
Speaker 7: used to, which is through treaty diplomacy, sort of a
Speaker 7: whole coordinated effort balancing countries off each other, consultation.
Speaker 3: That's not happening. But the president is still really extending.
Speaker 7: A very long arm a very long reach of American power,
Speaker 7: and he's trying to leverage i think economic power over
Speaker 7: military power. He's had success in terms of NATO, NATO,
Speaker 7: you know, Europe kicking in more money for their own
Speaker 7: defense and basically telling Europe, you know, will be your
Speaker 7: partner when it's in our interests, but we're not going
Speaker 7: to be on call for you anymore. And I think
Speaker 7: that's a significant shift for Europe to deal with.
Speaker 2: Wendy.
Speaker 5: What have we seen from Europe this week at Davos
Speaker 5: and then just in the last twelve months of this
Speaker 5: second Trump administration about.
Speaker 2: Show them some solidarity here?
Speaker 5: It just doesn't feel like it's even there even this
Speaker 5: week in terms of trying to craft a response to
Speaker 5: President Trump's discussions about Greenland, it just doesn't seem like
Speaker 5: Europe's that unified yet.
Speaker 3: Right, So, Paul, that's an excellent point.
Speaker 7: I Mean, the stunning thing is how President Trump sets
Speaker 7: the world's agenda. You know, this is really something I
Speaker 7: mean we saw Reagan.
Speaker 3: But Reagan had a.
Speaker 7: Sort of a consistent platform and a solid enemy quote
Speaker 7: unquote in the Soviet Union, so it was sort of
Speaker 7: easy to sort of dominate that conversation.
Speaker 3: Now the world is such a very different place.
Speaker 7: But President Trump still dominates international politics this way, and
Speaker 7: Europe seems to be scrambling. They have their own problems internally.
Speaker 7: I think issues like the economy, transitional economy, tech, and
Speaker 7: you know, emigration have really royaled Europe.
Speaker 3: So I think.
Speaker 7: Europe's trying to each individoal contr's trying to get their
Speaker 7: own footing, particularly since Grexit.
Speaker 3: I think losing the Great Britain as a real.
Speaker 7: Partner in the EU, I think has really created more
Speaker 7: turmoil there than we would have expected.
Speaker 2: Where are the senators? I mean, you know, I can
Speaker 2: pull out any number from the past. Let's go with
Speaker 2: the Richard Lueger, who is you know, wonderful Republican senator?
Speaker 2: Are there? Richard Luger is out there monitoring this, discussing this,
Speaker 2: being senatorial tom.
Speaker 7: I just think there isn't as much capital or political
Speaker 7: value to senators and focusing on international affairs, particularly in
Speaker 7: the Republican Party. I think the Democratic Party and the
Speaker 7: Republican Party have traded places there. But right now, you know,
Speaker 7: Americans are concerned about what's going on in America. I
Speaker 7: think that's what twenty twenty four told us, and I
Speaker 7: think that the polls continue to tell us, you know, affordability, housing, healthcare,
Speaker 7: these are domestic issues, and I think that's where there's
Speaker 7: no real political gain for reminding America that being a
Speaker 7: partner to Europe is a safer place to be than
Speaker 7: not being a partner of Europe.
Speaker 2: And it's the smartest single thing I've heard Paul in
Speaker 2: all this thirty hour extravaganza with the president. I mean
Speaker 2: Richard Lueger and on the Wikipedia page, Sam Nunn Evan
Speaker 2: by Victoria Neuland I mean, Paul, we are in a habit,
Speaker 2: a method of how we do this, and it shattered.
Speaker 5: Yeah, he certainly upended the political spectrum. So Wendy, again,
Speaker 5: it is election year here. To what extent do we
Speaker 5: think President Trump, when he does get back to the
Speaker 5: States maybe does refocus a little bit more on the
Speaker 5: domestic agenda? Hack, How important do you think he's going
Speaker 5: to be in these midterm elections?
Speaker 7: Well, I mean, that's sens I'm not sure he focuses
Speaker 7: on the policy agenda, but it does look like he's
Speaker 7: refocusing his attention on Republican primaries and using that power
Speaker 7: among the really loyal Republican primary voter base, which tends
Speaker 7: to be the most ideological, the most conservative, and the
Speaker 7: most in love with Trump to affect things like Bill
Speaker 7: Cassidy's racing Louisiana Senator Cassidy to get Cassidy to vote.
Speaker 3: For things that Trump wants. But right now, the President
Speaker 3: hasn't articulated.
Speaker 7: What he wants from Congress going forward this year. So
Speaker 7: it's one thing to hold the sort of down, cleaves
Speaker 7: their heads, but what are you asking for? And I've
Speaker 7: been surprised that he hasn't wanted to resolve the issue
Speaker 7: of a longcare premium subsidies.
Speaker 3: You know that's going to continue to.
Speaker 7: Ripple and filter and affect people and affect his Brewer writings.
Speaker 3: So how come he's not leaning on Congress to get
Speaker 3: that done?
Speaker 2: Well? Can we go inside Brown University now?
Speaker 5: Sure?
Speaker 2: Professor Scholler William Rhodes ninety one years old, all that
Speaker 2: he's done for Brown University at City Group, folks, he
Speaker 2: codified the idea central banker to the world. Bill Rhodes
Speaker 2: with an essay in the Ft walking through how all
Speaker 2: this is shattered? And he says, you know what all
Speaker 2: King Charles has to do is step up and see
Speaker 2: the Royalty of Denmark, and that would change the dialogue.
Speaker 2: I mean it was literally Bill Rhodes thrown back to
Speaker 2: the nineteenth century. Can the royal family actually get in
Speaker 2: the middle of this Greenland issue and change the dialogue
Speaker 2: of President Trump?
Speaker 7: No, but I mean a phone call to President Trump
Speaker 7: probably wouldn't hurt.
Speaker 3: He likes the royal family, he likes the.
Speaker 7: Pomp and circumstance, so I don't think it's a terrible idea.
Speaker 7: And we do have the Road Center at the Boston Institute,
Speaker 7: and it's a terrific political economy center, so we are
Speaker 7: grateful for that kind of support. But I think here
Speaker 7: we saw the President recognizing that he had maybe gone
Speaker 7: just a little too far.
Speaker 3: I mean, it's a trunk way of doing things.
Speaker 7: Right, go too far, blow things up, but then back
Speaker 7: off very quickly when you realize that you can, and
Speaker 7: no other president has done this recently, negotiate for favorable
Speaker 7: terms on access to minerals or access shipping lanes. But
Speaker 7: he backed off pretty quickly, and that was something we're
Speaker 7: not quite used to with this person.
Speaker 2: So in the fourteenth edition of your Classics Civics book,
Speaker 2: is there going to be a chapter twenty three Trump
Speaker 2: and Taco. Is that what we have to look forward to, Wendy.
Speaker 7: I'm literally negotiating how many changes I can make to
Speaker 7: the existing chapter on the President as we go forward with.
Speaker 3: Our next edition. So I will tell you that in
Speaker 3: a couple of months.
Speaker 2: Okay, Wendy Sheller, thank you, thank you, thank you at
Speaker 2: Bill Rhodes Brown University today. Really really appreciate it. Stay
Speaker 2: with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
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Speaker 2: Jane fully with us now with Rabobank. They have a
Speaker 2: very interesting relationship, folks. They do all sorts of commercial activities.
Speaker 2: So Jane has really got the pulse of trade and
Speaker 2: commerce within what she's doing with foreign exchange strategy. Jane,
Speaker 2: right now, I'm looking at the cross rates. You look
Speaker 2: at the majors dollar yen e're a yen da da
Speaker 2: da da da Okay, fine, but I look at the
Speaker 2: nuances and I'm unsure what they're signaling, like I see
Speaker 2: euro yen finally signaling euro strength versus yen. How does
Speaker 2: Japan get to their Monday morning our Sunday afternoon in
Speaker 2: New York.
Speaker 8: Well, you know, we know that the market's very skeptical
Speaker 8: of the yen, and it has been for months now.
Speaker 8: We still have I think a lot of the speculative
Speaker 8: community really still seeing the yenna as the basis or
Speaker 8: the funding currency of a Carrie Traven And I think
Speaker 8: the onus has got to be on the Bank of
Speaker 8: Japan as well as maybe the Ministry of Finance to
Speaker 8: really shake and rattle that view. So we do have
Speaker 8: a Bank of Japan policy meeting tomorrow, and I think
Speaker 8: we need a significantly more hawkish Uwada, that's the governor,
Speaker 8: to to really change that few. Now, he was pretty
Speaker 8: hawkish at the start of the year, but you know,
Speaker 8: most people were still on holiday right then, and of
Speaker 8: course you know, we have had these reassurances from the
Speaker 8: Ministry of Finance on the fiscal position too, but it
Speaker 8: yea and that market's just not convinced. So the yen
Speaker 8: really still very much on the back foot.
Speaker 5: Jane, as we look at the dollar trading against major
Speaker 5: currencies around the world. We had a big soft any
Speaker 5: US dollar in the first half of twenty twenty five.
Speaker 5: Then it's kind of stabilized kind of around these levels.
Speaker 5: How do you think about it in twenty twenty six years,
Speaker 5: This is this kind of the new normal level for
Speaker 5: the dollar versus some of these major currencies.
Speaker 8: Yeah, you know, that's certainly what we think. I mean,
Speaker 8: you know, the market consensus is that the dollar will
Speaker 8: continue to weaken. But if you look at the performance
Speaker 8: of the green back through the second half of last year,
Speaker 8: well in the second half it's ended, you know, that
Speaker 8: period something like the second or maybe the third best
Speaker 8: performing G ten currency. So you know, it's still the
Speaker 8: worst performing currency last year, but that's because of its
Speaker 8: falls at the start of the year, and that of
Speaker 8: course has spooked an awful lot of people, because you know,
Speaker 8: in recent months, I've had conversations at numerous times about
Speaker 8: you know, g dollarization, about even debasement, those sorts of things.
Speaker 8: But I do think the one phrase that most people
Speaker 8: would agree upon is diversification. And I think relative to
Speaker 8: say the buy America trades, which really sort of dominated
Speaker 8: from say the global financial crisis into the end of
Speaker 8: twenty twenty four, there is more appetite to diversify now,
Speaker 8: and that I think is probably going to keep the dollar,
Speaker 8: not necessarily in a week footing, because I think the
Speaker 8: US still offers great investment opportunities, you know, for a
Speaker 8: lot of investors. I think we're going to be more choppy,
Speaker 8: and I think choppy ranges is how we see the dollar,
Speaker 8: you know, against some of the majors going into twenty
Speaker 8: twenty six.
Speaker 5: And I think Jene along those lines, I mean, I
Speaker 5: think what we're we've heard so far from Davos is
Speaker 5: business folks bullish.
Speaker 2: On the US.
Speaker 5: Jonathan Ferrer from Bloomberg Television setting a study by PwC saying,
Speaker 5: you know, you go pull a lot of these corporate
Speaker 5: CEOs around the world, they're still investing heavily in the
Speaker 5: US market, that maybe that bodes well for the dollar.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I would agree that, you know, and if you
Speaker 8: look at the surveys, say from equity houses, you know,
Speaker 8: they're relatively bullish in terms of the potential performance of
Speaker 8: the US equity market in twenty twenty six, and that's
Speaker 8: not what you see in the foreign exchange surveys. With
Speaker 8: the economists thinking oh, you know, the dollar is going
Speaker 8: to carry on falling. So you know, that's why we're
Speaker 8: not really one of the reasons we're not as bearish
Speaker 8: as the market consensus on the view for the dollar.
Speaker 8: I mean, if you look, you know at the US
Speaker 8: stock market, well, you know, the US houses almost all
Speaker 8: of the top ten tech companies in the world, are
Speaker 8: large part of the top one hundred. If you're going
Speaker 8: to get companies gaining from productivity gains because of AI,
Speaker 8: well the US is really well positioned. On top of that.
Speaker 8: Of course, the dollar now is cheap and making those
Speaker 8: companies look even cheaper than they were, So from that
Speaker 8: point of view, you know, we don't really see the
Speaker 8: dollar as as really on this downturn. What we sort
Speaker 8: of see last year was a big position adjustment and
Speaker 8: chopping train rege traded is what we expect.
Speaker 2: On a question not to turn into history or Patrick
Speaker 2: O'Brien from the eighteenth century, let's go there. Robal Bank
Speaker 2: owns the Netherlands and up north to the Baltic Sea.
Speaker 2: From where you sit, Jane, with all of your years
Speaker 2: of experience, how coordinated attached are the Scandinavian states from
Speaker 2: Denmark into Saint Petersburg. Is everybody on the same page. Sweden, Norway,
Speaker 2: the Baltic States, is everybody on the same page.
Speaker 8: Well, you know, it is notable that you had Sweden
Speaker 8: and Finland moving into NATO really very recently, and I
Speaker 8: think that really gives us a pretty strong message as
Speaker 8: to who's aligned with whom. You know, Denmark is that
Speaker 8: side of you know, the Eurozone, but it is very
Speaker 8: much part of Europe and I think we again we've
Speaker 8: seen that in some of the reactions from the European
Speaker 8: politicians this week. So yeah, you know, Europe is very
Speaker 8: much a different you know, from a federal position, that
Speaker 8: nationalism within the different countries is very strong and that
Speaker 8: can add to significant barriers and getting things done. But
Speaker 8: you know we've seen this week were still able, you know,
Speaker 8: to come together and pull together with a single message.
Speaker 2: Jane, Thank you so much. Jane Foley a rabble bank,
Speaker 2: just can't say enough about the continental perspective she brings.
Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
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Speaker 2: Let's get to the Alexis Is going Why am I
Speaker 2: doing this? Let's do the newspapers Alexis Goos office.
Speaker 6: Hey, good morning guys. So I saw this one on
Speaker 6: the Wall Street Journal. I immediately thought of mister Paul Swainey
Speaker 6: because it's Duke Right. Just had their first first outright
Speaker 6: ACC championship more than half a century, thanks in large
Speaker 6: part to who their quarterback, of course, Darian Menza. Well
Speaker 6: guess what he was bolting for the exit. He wanted
Speaker 6: a bigger payday, so we went into the portal, tried
Speaker 6: to change schools thanks to you know, I'm talking nil
Speaker 6: right name image likeness. So Duke filed a lawsuit against Max.
Speaker 2: Here's the deal.
Speaker 5: They have a two year contract with him, and he
Speaker 5: completed his first year and he was going to bolt
Speaker 5: before his second year. So that's an issue. The second
Speaker 5: issue is he told the school and the world in December,
Speaker 5: I'm coming back for my second year. And so therefore
Speaker 5: Duke did not pursue a quarterback in the portal. Now
Speaker 5: they're left hind dry because he went into the portal
Speaker 5: literally an hour before it closed, and Duke's a little miffed.
Speaker 5: So you got a temporary restraining order on the guy
Speaker 5: so he can't enroll in Miami.
Speaker 2: Can you warn me next time when you're doing this,
Speaker 2: I'll just go sandwich.
Speaker 8: I got this.
Speaker 2: You need a Tito and tang.
Speaker 5: Well, what I would have said to you, young man,
Speaker 5: I'm sure you've got very good lawyers. Has more lawyers,
Speaker 5: so be carefully buddy.
Speaker 2: Leave him.
Speaker 5: Thank you.
Speaker 6: Second, I do have a second one, unfortunately not a
Speaker 6: Duke one. But this comes from the New York Times.
Speaker 6: So federal regulators now looking at late night TV, right,
Speaker 6: So the FCC wants to enforce these old, they're largely
Speaker 6: unenforced media rules. Remember public interest standards when you had
Speaker 6: to give a politician the same amount of time if
Speaker 6: they're buying for a position.
Speaker 2: It kind of has gone by the wayside.
Speaker 6: So under the new guidance, the FCC wants these talk
Speaker 6: shows that are carried on local TV stations to offer
Speaker 6: candidates vying for the same office equal airtime. So who
Speaker 6: does this going to affect Jimmy Kimmel ABC, Stephen Colbert CBS,
Speaker 6: who we already know is going away in June, right,
Speaker 6: Seth Myers on NBC. Also daytime talk shows like The View,
Speaker 6: which we know President Trump is not a fan of.
Speaker 6: So you know, conservatives have complained for years at these
Speaker 6: late night shows tilt far to the left. They have
Speaker 6: more Democrats on than Republicans. So we'll see if this
Speaker 6: public interest standard.
Speaker 2: Ye, because it take. It's a real thing.
Speaker 5: It's been out there since nineteen thirty four.
Speaker 6: But you do feel like you see less and less
Speaker 6: of it. There's not a lot of the balanced approach.
Speaker 2: To comment that. I think. I'm like, are you lots
Speaker 2: of people aren't staying up to watch this stuff anymore?
Speaker 6: Right, because you can watch it the next day on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I don't. I don't the whole eleven
Speaker 2: eleven thirty midnight thing. I think it's sort of dripped
Speaker 2: it away.
Speaker 6: Yeah, even SNL I don't watch it. I rarely watch
Speaker 6: it in real time. Well with these hours, we're really
Speaker 6: watching anything in real time late at night.
Speaker 5: All right, listen wonderfully one this story.
Speaker 6: I like, Yeah, did you guys have Lincoln logs growing up?
Speaker 2: Oh? Yeah, of course I love it? Right, it was
Speaker 2: our legos?
Speaker 6: All right, Well, I'm glad you're both sitting down because
Speaker 6: the factory that makes Lincoln logs, it's in Maine shutting down.
Speaker 2: Yep. Yeah, this national crisis is Trump should address this shit.
Speaker 5: I mean this is big. Yes, So now they're trying
Speaker 5: to scramble and find someplace in China or somewhere else
Speaker 5: that can make these things.
Speaker 6: Yeah, of course, I mean, so here's I guess the
Speaker 6: good news is Lincoln logs isn't going away. It's just
Speaker 6: factory that made them. So the Pride Manufacturing is now
Speaker 6: scrambling or Basic Fund is scrambling. That's the name of
Speaker 6: the Basic Fund, scrambling to find a new factory to
Speaker 6: manufactory these there are sexually you.
Speaker 2: Can't make Lincoln logs in Vietnam, I think.
Speaker 5: And then tariff, so the guys are saying, hey, we're
Speaker 5: gonna have to make them outside the US. With the tariff,
Speaker 5: they're gonna be more EPENSI we're gonna have to.
Speaker 2: Better when the dog shoe, the green roofs your father goes,
Speaker 2: they're gonna die from them.
Speaker 6: Were you stepped on a Lincoln log in the middle
Speaker 6: of the night.
Speaker 2: You may have to go buy some Lincoln logs.
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Speaker 8: He was married s