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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: A joy to having the studios right now. Rebecca Patterson

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Speaker 2: with all of her work working with a trust, the Bessemer,

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Speaker 2: and also of course I worked with JP Morgan Ages

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Speaker 2: Ago and with a small shop up in Connecticut called Bridgewater.

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Speaker 2: She came in because it gets too cold, you know,

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Speaker 2: like for like two weeks. Yeah, Connecticut can get like

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Speaker 2: the Dakota have.

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Speaker 3: Good coffee for the beverages.

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Speaker 2: We don't all We have a beverage of your choice

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Speaker 2: and we'll give you a Titos and tang give packed

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Speaker 2: when you leave. You wrote any ft about everything you do,

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Speaker 2: just a comeback to the foundation of a dollar is

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Speaker 2: a dollar under threat after the foolishness of the last.

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Speaker 4: Number of days, I think the important thing about the

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Speaker 4: dollar is time frame and degree. You know, a lot

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Speaker 4: of the media coverage this week with the threats of

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Speaker 4: possible military intervention to acquire Greenland against its will, and

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Speaker 4: then the backing off it. You saw some market reaction,

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Speaker 4: but it was really just a one day sell America

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Speaker 4: and everyone's saying, well, gosh, no one sold treasuries. Everything's fine,

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Speaker 4: it's all hype. I'm like, no, it's not. It's time frame.

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Speaker 4: What we're seeing is a slow erosion of confidence in

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Speaker 4: dollar based assets. This is something that will play out

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Speaker 4: over years, not a day or a week or a month,

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Speaker 4: but it's happening. We saw news this week that Sweden's

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Speaker 4: largest private pension fund is reducing significantly it's treasury holdings.

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Speaker 4: And yes, Denmark is not a large country, but they're

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Speaker 4: getting rid of their treasuries. There's more to come.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Paul, can you I just love it having

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Speaker 2: Rebecca and could you just say the poor soul who

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Speaker 2: had three martinis in the city in London goes back

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Speaker 2: to the desk in a major bank calls up when

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Speaker 2: the phony goes celibate exactly.

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Speaker 5: So how do we I mean, what does that mean

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Speaker 5: for the dollar?

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Speaker 2: Here?

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Speaker 5: We had did the dollar sell from early last year, yep,

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Speaker 5: that it could stabilized and actually had decent second half

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Speaker 5: of the year.

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Speaker 2: Here is that dollars still at risk?

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Speaker 3: Do you think modest risk this year.

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Speaker 4: So you know, there are a lot of factors that

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Speaker 4: come together that drive currency markets. Part of it is

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Speaker 4: cross border capital and trade flows. Part of it is

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Speaker 4: expectations for interest rates to the relative yield of a currency.

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Speaker 4: What helped the dollar in part and the second half

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Speaker 4: of last year we didn't see as much hedging action,

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Speaker 4: so foreign or US investors hedging out dollar risk. And

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Speaker 4: then we also saw a reduction in expectations for FED

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Speaker 4: rate cuts i e. Relatively higher rates, and that also

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Speaker 4: gave us support to the dollar this year. You know,

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Speaker 4: given how strong the US economy is at a high level,

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Speaker 4: and given sticky inflation, which you talked about earlier this morning,

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Speaker 4: it's going to be hard for the Federal Reserve to

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Speaker 4: cut much unless something drastic changes. So that is going

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Speaker 4: to prevent the dollar from weakening a lot. The dollar

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Speaker 4: hedging the diversification, Like I said, this is kind of

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Speaker 4: a slow drip, drip drip. This isn't a sudden flood.

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Speaker 4: So I wouldn't be shocked to see a stable or

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Speaker 4: maybe slightly lower dollar this year.

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Speaker 5: Well, given that backdrop, the global geopolitical backdrop, I guess

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Speaker 5: it's no surprise that we've seen gold been ripping, Yes,

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Speaker 5: like crazy, that's still kind of the place.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, So to me, that's the most obvious reflection of

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Speaker 4: the diversification trade that's taking place. We know some of

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Speaker 4: it is investors, and those could be speculative investors as well.

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Speaker 4: But underlying that, we continue to see central bank demand.

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Speaker 4: Central banks diversifying slowly but surely out of the US

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Speaker 4: looking for other liquid assets. You talk to my good

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Speaker 4: friend Mark Sobel at omfif the World Gold Council. Both

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Speaker 4: of them do really good surveys of central banks every year,

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Speaker 4: asking them what do you intend to do going forward,

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Speaker 4: and the data shows that they're going to keep buying gold.

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Speaker 2: I was not expected a meeting of the President of

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Speaker 2: the United States with mister Zelenski of Ukraine clearly off

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Speaker 2: the radar given yesterday's festivities. Mister Zelenski now speaking at

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Speaker 2: the meetings of the World Economic Forum and Davos. Our

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Speaker 2: team there will give you all that coverage. We'll look

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Speaker 2: for the headlines here and bring them to you when

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Speaker 2: we can. I look at your counsel and foreign relations.

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Speaker 2: I mean froman hasn't slept in six days. It's nuts.

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Speaker 2: Everyone's publishing. I know you're going to publish and give

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Speaker 2: us a head start on that, But I look back

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Speaker 2: to back in the Foreign Affairs magazine Elizabeth Economy on

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Speaker 2: the international relations of the Arctic Ocean, and then you

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Speaker 2: followed up with your senior fellow on China. With all

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Speaker 2: that's going on in the frenzy, it's CFR. What are

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Speaker 2: you focused on most? What does Rebecca Patterson study?

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Speaker 4: I always look at the intersection of geopolitics, the economy,

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Speaker 4: and financial markets because they all influence each other. One

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Speaker 4: of the things I'm looking at now ahead of the

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Speaker 4: Supreme Court decision about US tariffs is if we reduce

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Speaker 4: the tariffs, take them off, shift them around, how does

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Speaker 4: that translate into the affordability narrative in the United States?

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Speaker 4: If tariffs are removed, do we actually see any price

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Speaker 4: change that benefits you as consumers? How does that play

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Speaker 4: out in the midterm election. So again, as looking at

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Speaker 4: all these connections, So that is a piece of work

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Speaker 4: I'm working on right now because I think we should

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Speaker 4: get the Supreme Court decision fairly shortly. So that's one

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Speaker 4: I think. The other one I'm trying to spend time

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Speaker 4: on is the Federal Reserve. So we know we're going

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Speaker 4: to get an announcement probably in the next week or

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Speaker 4: so with the next nominee. But I never, none of

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Speaker 4: us ever had to think about the legal intricacies of

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Speaker 4: the FED before. Now I'm trying to understand things like,

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Speaker 4: could you see not only two hundred billion buying of

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Speaker 4: mortgage backed securities? Could you see a trillion mortgage?

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Speaker 2: Paul's got eight questions? Let me be rooting in a

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Speaker 2: rum once more a bestmer trust ages ago. Yep, you

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Speaker 2: don't go to cash? I mean, with all the cacophony

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Speaker 2: you just mentioned, how do you handle this news at

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Speaker 2: CFR and where else? How do you do it and

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Speaker 2: not go to cash?

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Speaker 4: Well, I think the big takeaway for me is that

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Speaker 4: while treasuries US government bonds still act as a diversifier

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Speaker 4: in a portfolio, you can't expect them to work as

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Speaker 4: effectively as they have for the last several decades. So

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Speaker 4: when you diversify a portfolio, you have to think about

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Speaker 4: it differently. That is part of the support for gold prices,

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Speaker 4: which is extraordinary. It's part of why we see people

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Speaker 4: going into alternatives more different types of alternative assets, and

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Speaker 4: I think it's part of why again. So far this

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Speaker 4: year we're seeing foreign markets out performing the US, So

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Speaker 4: it's asset diversification, geographic diversification. But you're right, Tom, getting

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Speaker 4: out of the markets given that risk assets outperform diverse

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Speaker 4: fine assets eight years out of ten, because the economy

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Speaker 4: is growing eight years out of ten. So to get

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Speaker 4: out to react to the geopolitical headlines, you're doing yourself

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Speaker 4: a disservice in balls.

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Speaker 2: You know, you got to get back in. I mean

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Speaker 2: I was in cash, but I took the leverage away

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Speaker 2: and I went further to cash two or three days ago. Fine, No,

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Speaker 2: I'm hammered I missed this.

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Speaker 4: No, I mean even professional investors, the smartest ones in

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Speaker 4: the world, timing when to get in and out is

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Speaker 4: a fool's errand that's why you stay in the market.

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Speaker 4: You just make tactical shifts on the margin.

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Speaker 5: All the news this week, coming out of Davos, coming

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Speaker 5: out of Greenland, we kind of forgot about. Japan had

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Speaker 5: a little bit of a problem in their bond market

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Speaker 5: earlier this week. That's spook people big time earlier in

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Speaker 5: the week. Yes, that's just a technical thing. Should we

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Speaker 5: not worry about it?

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Speaker 4: Is there any contangent issue there, yes, yes, yes, so

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Speaker 4: yes you should worry about it. Yes, there is contagion.

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Speaker 4: I'm talking about US treasuries and are we going to

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Speaker 4: have enough buyers to meet the amount of supply we

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Speaker 4: have to issue to pay for our deficits. But it's

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Speaker 4: important to remember over the last twenty or so years,

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Speaker 4: global bond markets have gotten much more integrated. People own

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Speaker 4: global bonds, not just their own countries bonds today, and

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Speaker 4: that means something that happens in Japan or France or

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Speaker 4: the UK can and will affect the US treasury market also.

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Speaker 4: So we do need to care about Japan, what the

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Speaker 4: Bank of Japan does at its next meeting, which I

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Speaker 4: believe is tonight, right. And then of course Prime Minister

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Speaker 4: Takeichi when she has this snap election, do we see

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Speaker 4: additional stimulus after that? How does that make people think

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Speaker 4: about the fiscal dynamics.

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Speaker 5: So again I come back to I have to buy

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Speaker 5: US treasuries, buy treasuries in gold.

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Speaker 3: No no, no, no, no no.

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Speaker 4: Look, I'm not saying dump all your treasuries by any stretch,

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Speaker 4: but you want to think more diversified. It's been fascinating

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Speaker 4: to me to see that you are seeing institutional investors

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Speaker 4: looking at more fiscally sound bond markets today, So countries

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Speaker 4: that don't have those big debt difficulties looking at.

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Speaker 2: Hell the boat in Germany. Is that what I'm hearing here?

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Speaker 4: I mean some of the some of the European bond

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Speaker 4: markets are attractive. Canada, Australia relatively better, Norway, Singapore. The

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Speaker 4: problem is these markets don't have as much liquidity, so

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Speaker 4: that's only so far it can take you. But you

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Speaker 4: do want to have a global basket of bonds and

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Speaker 4: emerging markets. EM is the new DM, So emerging market

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Speaker 4: fiscal dynamics today are much better than they've been in general.

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Speaker 4: I'm not talking about every country for a long time.

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Speaker 2: Should we steal that phrase? EM is the new DM,

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Speaker 2: or DM is the new You got to go nerd

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Speaker 2: on your back to foreign exchange with JP Morgan here,

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm sorry, the Japanese mess, when it goes

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Speaker 2: to me, is wildly nonlinear. Discuss the jump condition we

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Speaker 2: could see in Japan. I fit on ravels well.

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Speaker 4: The JGB market, the Japanese government bond market is not

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Speaker 4: the most liquid bond market, to say the least. So

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Speaker 4: to your point, Tom, the risk of a jump right

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Speaker 4: of a big move, and we saw a bit of

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Speaker 4: that on Tuesday, another one of those happening. You will

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Speaker 4: have contagion to the Japanese stock market, and a lot

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Speaker 4: of investors have added Japanese exposure over the last fifteen

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Speaker 4: eighteen months, so there's contagion risk there that could come

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Speaker 4: back and affect global markets.

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Speaker 2: With a cold coming. I mean Rebecca and I live

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Speaker 2: in the same neighborhood. I mean Rebecca, Saturday eleven above

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Speaker 2: zero on the east side of Central Park, I mean

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Speaker 2: ten degrees on Tuesday. It's even worse next week. How

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Speaker 2: much wind do you need to take an uber the

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Speaker 2: three blocks you need to walk? Gee? Is it like

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Speaker 2: two miles an hour? Or do you need to see

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Speaker 2: ten or fist?

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Speaker 4: I'm just toting not to go outside at all. God

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Speaker 4: bless Zoom and teams in the delivery Ectly. I'm going

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Speaker 4: to be making a lot of soup, I think Saturday

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Speaker 4: morning I'm going to be stocking up.

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Speaker 2: With it's a favorite soup.

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Speaker 4: My favorite is butternut squash. But I a good homemade

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Speaker 4: tomato cream of tomato soup, and I'm going to play

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Speaker 4: with some lentils. I think this weekend.

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Speaker 2: There you go. See it's at nine o'clock hour a

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Speaker 2: lexus where you just go into the food.

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Speaker 6: Said, but you know what yesterday I made ago lemono.

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Speaker 6: It's a Greek and lemon soup. I'll give you the restaurant.

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Speaker 2: You know, the Greek restaurant on York Avenue. It starts

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Speaker 2: with a why it's.

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Speaker 6: Phenomenal, yesie, yes, yes, yes, I think that's it. I

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Speaker 6: have to look out. I know what I can picture.

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Speaker 6: I get that soup fantastic. I call it super lexus.

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Speaker 2: It's great. So you can you bring in like lemon

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Speaker 2: Greek potatoes.

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Speaker 6: I can do that.

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Speaker 2: Are they delicious? I tried to cook them like eight

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Speaker 2: times and I'm going.

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Speaker 6: To get dried out, and yeah, I'm a failure.

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Speaker 4: See this is one of the many reasons I love Bloomberg.

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Speaker 4: I have great conversations with you all. I never know

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Speaker 4: where it's going. And when I'm done, you have this

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Speaker 4: amazing food and coffee spread upstairs.

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Speaker 2: It is a little treat. Well, mister Bloomberg's. People stopped

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Speaker 2: by today said is it true Rebecca Patterson's and I

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Speaker 2: said yes, I said, They said, well, the cheese it's

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Speaker 2: outson thank you so much. The counts on foreign relations

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Speaker 2: or a recent essay in the Financial Times and the challenges,

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Speaker 2: including important quotes there from the pension system of Denmark

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Speaker 2: as well. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming

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Speaker 2: up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: We are privileged now, whatever your politics, after what we

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Speaker 2: saw yesterday, here to pick up the pieces. Wendy Shiller,

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Speaker 2: Professor of Chaos, Brown University. Wendy, is there a permanent

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Speaker 2: change in the diplomacy of the United States after Trump?

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Speaker 2: Is this the way it's going to be? Well, I

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Speaker 2: don't know.

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Speaker 7: You know, we have to say permanent when we talk

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Speaker 7: about American politics. But the president is simultaneously projecting power,

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Speaker 7: but not in the way that I think europe is

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Speaker 7: used to, which is through treaty diplomacy, sort of a

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Speaker 7: whole coordinated effort balancing countries off each other, consultation.

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Speaker 3: That's not happening. But the president is still really extending.

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Speaker 7: A very long arm a very long reach of American power,

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Speaker 7: and he's trying to leverage i think economic power over

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Speaker 7: military power. He's had success in terms of NATO, NATO,

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Speaker 7: you know, Europe kicking in more money for their own

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Speaker 7: defense and basically telling Europe, you know, will be your

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Speaker 7: partner when it's in our interests, but we're not going

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Speaker 7: to be on call for you anymore. And I think

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Speaker 7: that's a significant shift for Europe to deal with.

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Speaker 2: Wendy.

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Speaker 5: What have we seen from Europe this week at Davos

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Speaker 5: and then just in the last twelve months of this

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Speaker 5: second Trump administration about.

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Speaker 2: Show them some solidarity here?

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Speaker 5: It just doesn't feel like it's even there even this

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Speaker 5: week in terms of trying to craft a response to

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Speaker 5: President Trump's discussions about Greenland, it just doesn't seem like

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Speaker 5: Europe's that unified yet.

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Speaker 3: Right, So, Paul, that's an excellent point.

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Speaker 7: I Mean, the stunning thing is how President Trump sets

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Speaker 7: the world's agenda. You know, this is really something I

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Speaker 7: mean we saw Reagan.

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Speaker 3: But Reagan had a.

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Speaker 7: Sort of a consistent platform and a solid enemy quote

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Speaker 7: unquote in the Soviet Union, so it was sort of

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Speaker 7: easy to sort of dominate that conversation.

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Speaker 3: Now the world is such a very different place.

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Speaker 7: But President Trump still dominates international politics this way, and

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Speaker 7: Europe seems to be scrambling. They have their own problems internally.

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Speaker 7: I think issues like the economy, transitional economy, tech, and

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Speaker 7: you know, emigration have really royaled Europe.

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Speaker 3: So I think.

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Speaker 7: Europe's trying to each individoal contr's trying to get their

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Speaker 7: own footing, particularly since Grexit.

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Speaker 3: I think losing the Great Britain as a real.

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Speaker 7: Partner in the EU, I think has really created more

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Speaker 7: turmoil there than we would have expected.

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Speaker 2: Where are the senators? I mean, you know, I can

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Speaker 2: pull out any number from the past. Let's go with

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Speaker 2: the Richard Lueger, who is you know, wonderful Republican senator?

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Speaker 2: Are there? Richard Luger is out there monitoring this, discussing this,

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Speaker 2: being senatorial tom.

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Speaker 7: I just think there isn't as much capital or political

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Speaker 7: value to senators and focusing on international affairs, particularly in

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Speaker 7: the Republican Party. I think the Democratic Party and the

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Speaker 7: Republican Party have traded places there. But right now, you know,

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Speaker 7: Americans are concerned about what's going on in America. I

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Speaker 7: think that's what twenty twenty four told us, and I

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Speaker 7: think that the polls continue to tell us, you know, affordability, housing, healthcare,

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Speaker 7: these are domestic issues, and I think that's where there's

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Speaker 7: no real political gain for reminding America that being a

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Speaker 7: partner to Europe is a safer place to be than

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Speaker 7: not being a partner of Europe.

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Speaker 2: And it's the smartest single thing I've heard Paul in

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Speaker 2: all this thirty hour extravaganza with the president. I mean

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Speaker 2: Richard Lueger and on the Wikipedia page, Sam Nunn Evan

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Speaker 2: by Victoria Neuland I mean, Paul, we are in a habit,

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Speaker 2: a method of how we do this, and it shattered.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, he certainly upended the political spectrum. So Wendy, again,

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Speaker 5: it is election year here. To what extent do we

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Speaker 5: think President Trump, when he does get back to the

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Speaker 5: States maybe does refocus a little bit more on the

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Speaker 5: domestic agenda? Hack, How important do you think he's going

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Speaker 5: to be in these midterm elections?

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Speaker 7: Well, I mean, that's sens I'm not sure he focuses

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Speaker 7: on the policy agenda, but it does look like he's

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Speaker 7: refocusing his attention on Republican primaries and using that power

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Speaker 7: among the really loyal Republican primary voter base, which tends

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Speaker 7: to be the most ideological, the most conservative, and the

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Speaker 7: most in love with Trump to affect things like Bill

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Speaker 7: Cassidy's racing Louisiana Senator Cassidy to get Cassidy to vote.

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Speaker 3: For things that Trump wants. But right now, the President

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Speaker 3: hasn't articulated.

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Speaker 7: What he wants from Congress going forward this year. So

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Speaker 7: it's one thing to hold the sort of down, cleaves

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Speaker 7: their heads, but what are you asking for? And I've

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Speaker 7: been surprised that he hasn't wanted to resolve the issue

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Speaker 7: of a longcare premium subsidies.

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Speaker 3: You know that's going to continue to.

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Speaker 7: Ripple and filter and affect people and affect his Brewer writings.

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Speaker 3: So how come he's not leaning on Congress to get

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Speaker 3: that done?

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Speaker 2: Well? Can we go inside Brown University now?

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Speaker 5: Sure?

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Speaker 2: Professor Scholler William Rhodes ninety one years old, all that

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Speaker 2: he's done for Brown University at City Group, folks, he

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Speaker 2: codified the idea central banker to the world. Bill Rhodes

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Speaker 2: with an essay in the Ft walking through how all

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Speaker 2: this is shattered? And he says, you know what all

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Speaker 2: King Charles has to do is step up and see

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Speaker 2: the Royalty of Denmark, and that would change the dialogue.

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Speaker 2: I mean it was literally Bill Rhodes thrown back to

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Speaker 2: the nineteenth century. Can the royal family actually get in

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Speaker 2: the middle of this Greenland issue and change the dialogue

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Speaker 2: of President Trump?

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Speaker 7: No, but I mean a phone call to President Trump

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Speaker 7: probably wouldn't hurt.

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Speaker 3: He likes the royal family, he likes the.

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Speaker 7: Pomp and circumstance, so I don't think it's a terrible idea.

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Speaker 7: And we do have the Road Center at the Boston Institute,

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Speaker 7: and it's a terrific political economy center, so we are

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Speaker 7: grateful for that kind of support. But I think here

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Speaker 7: we saw the President recognizing that he had maybe gone

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Speaker 7: just a little too far.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's a trunk way of doing things.

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Speaker 7: Right, go too far, blow things up, but then back

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Speaker 7: off very quickly when you realize that you can, and

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Speaker 7: no other president has done this recently, negotiate for favorable

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Speaker 7: terms on access to minerals or access shipping lanes. But

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Speaker 7: he backed off pretty quickly, and that was something we're

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Speaker 7: not quite used to with this person.

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Speaker 2: So in the fourteenth edition of your Classics Civics book,

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Speaker 2: is there going to be a chapter twenty three Trump

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Speaker 2: and Taco. Is that what we have to look forward to, Wendy.

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Speaker 7: I'm literally negotiating how many changes I can make to

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Speaker 7: the existing chapter on the President as we go forward with.

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Speaker 3: Our next edition. So I will tell you that in

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Speaker 3: a couple of months.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Wendy Sheller, thank you, thank you, thank you at

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Speaker 2: Bill Rhodes Brown University today. Really really appreciate it. Stay

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Speaker 2: with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch US Live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on

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00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:33,600
Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch US live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Jane fully with us now with Rabobank. They have a

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Speaker 2: very interesting relationship, folks. They do all sorts of commercial activities.

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Speaker 2: So Jane has really got the pulse of trade and

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Speaker 2: commerce within what she's doing with foreign exchange strategy. Jane,

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Speaker 2: right now, I'm looking at the cross rates. You look

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Speaker 2: at the majors dollar yen e're a yen da da

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Speaker 2: da da da Okay, fine, but I look at the

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Speaker 2: nuances and I'm unsure what they're signaling, like I see

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Speaker 2: euro yen finally signaling euro strength versus yen. How does

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Speaker 2: Japan get to their Monday morning our Sunday afternoon in

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Speaker 2: New York.

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Speaker 8: Well, you know, we know that the market's very skeptical

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Speaker 8: of the yen, and it has been for months now.

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Speaker 8: We still have I think a lot of the speculative

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Speaker 8: community really still seeing the yenna as the basis or

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Speaker 8: the funding currency of a Carrie Traven And I think

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Speaker 8: the onus has got to be on the Bank of

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Speaker 8: Japan as well as maybe the Ministry of Finance to

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Speaker 8: really shake and rattle that view. So we do have

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Speaker 8: a Bank of Japan policy meeting tomorrow, and I think

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Speaker 8: we need a significantly more hawkish Uwada, that's the governor,

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Speaker 8: to to really change that few. Now, he was pretty

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Speaker 8: hawkish at the start of the year, but you know,

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Speaker 8: most people were still on holiday right then, and of

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Speaker 8: course you know, we have had these reassurances from the

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Speaker 8: Ministry of Finance on the fiscal position too, but it

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Speaker 8: yea and that market's just not convinced. So the yen

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Speaker 8: really still very much on the back foot.

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Speaker 5: Jane, as we look at the dollar trading against major

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Speaker 5: currencies around the world. We had a big soft any

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Speaker 5: US dollar in the first half of twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 5: Then it's kind of stabilized kind of around these levels.

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Speaker 5: How do you think about it in twenty twenty six years,

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Speaker 5: This is this kind of the new normal level for

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Speaker 5: the dollar versus some of these major currencies.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, you know, that's certainly what we think. I mean,

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Speaker 8: you know, the market consensus is that the dollar will

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Speaker 8: continue to weaken. But if you look at the performance

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Speaker 8: of the green back through the second half of last year,

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Speaker 8: well in the second half it's ended, you know, that

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Speaker 8: period something like the second or maybe the third best

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Speaker 8: performing G ten currency. So you know, it's still the

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Speaker 8: worst performing currency last year, but that's because of its

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Speaker 8: falls at the start of the year, and that of

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Speaker 8: course has spooked an awful lot of people, because you know,

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Speaker 8: in recent months, I've had conversations at numerous times about

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Speaker 8: you know, g dollarization, about even debasement, those sorts of things.

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Speaker 8: But I do think the one phrase that most people

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Speaker 8: would agree upon is diversification. And I think relative to

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Speaker 8: say the buy America trades, which really sort of dominated

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Speaker 8: from say the global financial crisis into the end of

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Speaker 8: twenty twenty four, there is more appetite to diversify now,

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Speaker 8: and that I think is probably going to keep the dollar,

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Speaker 8: not necessarily in a week footing, because I think the

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Speaker 8: US still offers great investment opportunities, you know, for a

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Speaker 8: lot of investors. I think we're going to be more choppy,

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Speaker 8: and I think choppy ranges is how we see the dollar,

438
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,440
Speaker 8: you know, against some of the majors going into twenty

439
00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 8: twenty six.

440
00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:40,040
Speaker 5: And I think Jene along those lines, I mean, I

441
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:42,439
Speaker 5: think what we're we've heard so far from Davos is

442
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:45,320
Speaker 5: business folks bullish.

443
00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 2: On the US.

444
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:49,879
Speaker 5: Jonathan Ferrer from Bloomberg Television setting a study by PwC saying,

445
00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:52,879
Speaker 5: you know, you go pull a lot of these corporate

446
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:56,119
Speaker 5: CEOs around the world, they're still investing heavily in the

447
00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:58,879
Speaker 5: US market, that maybe that bodes well for the dollar.

448
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:01,920
Speaker 8: Yeah, I would agree that, you know, and if you

449
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:05,520
Speaker 8: look at the surveys, say from equity houses, you know,

450
00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:09,119
Speaker 8: they're relatively bullish in terms of the potential performance of

451
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:11,640
Speaker 8: the US equity market in twenty twenty six, and that's

452
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:13,920
Speaker 8: not what you see in the foreign exchange surveys. With

453
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 8: the economists thinking oh, you know, the dollar is going

454
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:18,640
Speaker 8: to carry on falling. So you know, that's why we're

455
00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:21,800
Speaker 8: not really one of the reasons we're not as bearish

456
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 8: as the market consensus on the view for the dollar.

457
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,200
Speaker 8: I mean, if you look, you know at the US

458
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:30,479
Speaker 8: stock market, well, you know, the US houses almost all

459
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 8: of the top ten tech companies in the world, are

460
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:35,000
Speaker 8: large part of the top one hundred. If you're going

461
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:38,399
Speaker 8: to get companies gaining from productivity gains because of AI,

462
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:41,359
Speaker 8: well the US is really well positioned. On top of that.

463
00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 8: Of course, the dollar now is cheap and making those

464
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:47,320
Speaker 8: companies look even cheaper than they were, So from that

465
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:49,679
Speaker 8: point of view, you know, we don't really see the

466
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 8: dollar as as really on this downturn. What we sort

467
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:56,520
Speaker 8: of see last year was a big position adjustment and

468
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:59,880
Speaker 8: chopping train rege traded is what we expect.

469
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:02,399
Speaker 2: On a question not to turn into history or Patrick

470
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:05,840
Speaker 2: O'Brien from the eighteenth century, let's go there. Robal Bank

471
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:09,400
Speaker 2: owns the Netherlands and up north to the Baltic Sea.

472
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:12,320
Speaker 2: From where you sit, Jane, with all of your years

473
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 2: of experience, how coordinated attached are the Scandinavian states from

474
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 2: Denmark into Saint Petersburg. Is everybody on the same page. Sweden, Norway,

475
00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:27,800
Speaker 2: the Baltic States, is everybody on the same page.

476
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:31,200
Speaker 8: Well, you know, it is notable that you had Sweden

477
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 8: and Finland moving into NATO really very recently, and I

478
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:37,320
Speaker 8: think that really gives us a pretty strong message as

479
00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:41,639
Speaker 8: to who's aligned with whom. You know, Denmark is that

480
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 8: side of you know, the Eurozone, but it is very

481
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:49,800
Speaker 8: much part of Europe and I think we again we've

482
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:53,119
Speaker 8: seen that in some of the reactions from the European

483
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:57,200
Speaker 8: politicians this week. So yeah, you know, Europe is very

484
00:24:57,280 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 8: much a different you know, from a federal position, that

485
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 8: nationalism within the different countries is very strong and that

486
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 8: can add to significant barriers and getting things done. But

487
00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:12,720
Speaker 8: you know we've seen this week were still able, you know,

488
00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 8: to come together and pull together with a single message.

489
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 2: Jane, Thank you so much. Jane Foley a rabble bank,

490
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:23,480
Speaker 2: just can't say enough about the continental perspective she brings.

491
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:28,120
Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

492
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:38,960
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live

493
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:42,040
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. E's Durn listen

494
00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:45,639
Speaker 1: on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app,

495
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

496
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:49,639
Speaker 2: Let's get to the Alexis Is going Why am I

497
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 2: doing this? Let's do the newspapers Alexis Goos office.

498
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:54,639
Speaker 6: Hey, good morning guys. So I saw this one on

499
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:57,639
Speaker 6: the Wall Street Journal. I immediately thought of mister Paul Swainey

500
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:00,880
Speaker 6: because it's Duke Right. Just had their first first outright

501
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 6: ACC championship more than half a century, thanks in large

502
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:07,440
Speaker 6: part to who their quarterback, of course, Darian Menza. Well

503
00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:09,960
Speaker 6: guess what he was bolting for the exit. He wanted

504
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 6: a bigger payday, so we went into the portal, tried

505
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 6: to change schools thanks to you know, I'm talking nil

506
00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:18,600
Speaker 6: right name image likeness. So Duke filed a lawsuit against Max.

507
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 2: Here's the deal.

508
00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 5: They have a two year contract with him, and he

509
00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:23,680
Speaker 5: completed his first year and he was going to bolt

510
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 5: before his second year. So that's an issue. The second

511
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:28,880
Speaker 5: issue is he told the school and the world in December,

512
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 5: I'm coming back for my second year. And so therefore

513
00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 5: Duke did not pursue a quarterback in the portal. Now

514
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:36,480
Speaker 5: they're left hind dry because he went into the portal

515
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:40,000
Speaker 5: literally an hour before it closed, and Duke's a little miffed.

516
00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:42,600
Speaker 5: So you got a temporary restraining order on the guy

517
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 5: so he can't enroll in Miami.

518
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:45,719
Speaker 2: Can you warn me next time when you're doing this,

519
00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 2: I'll just go sandwich.

520
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:49,399
Speaker 8: I got this.

521
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 2: You need a Tito and tang.

522
00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:53,120
Speaker 5: Well, what I would have said to you, young man,

523
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 5: I'm sure you've got very good lawyers. Has more lawyers,

524
00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:58,800
Speaker 5: so be carefully buddy.

525
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:02,119
Speaker 2: Leave him.

526
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:04,159
Speaker 5: Thank you.

527
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:08,520
Speaker 6: Second, I do have a second one, unfortunately not a

528
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:11,360
Speaker 6: Duke one. But this comes from the New York Times.

529
00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:14,720
Speaker 6: So federal regulators now looking at late night TV, right,

530
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:18,000
Speaker 6: So the FCC wants to enforce these old, they're largely

531
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:22,160
Speaker 6: unenforced media rules. Remember public interest standards when you had

532
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:24,879
Speaker 6: to give a politician the same amount of time if

533
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:25,960
Speaker 6: they're buying for a position.

534
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:27,880
Speaker 2: It kind of has gone by the wayside.

535
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 6: So under the new guidance, the FCC wants these talk

536
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:34,200
Speaker 6: shows that are carried on local TV stations to offer

537
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 6: candidates vying for the same office equal airtime. So who

538
00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:40,679
Speaker 6: does this going to affect Jimmy Kimmel ABC, Stephen Colbert CBS,

539
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:42,720
Speaker 6: who we already know is going away in June, right,

540
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 6: Seth Myers on NBC. Also daytime talk shows like The View,

541
00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:49,119
Speaker 6: which we know President Trump is not a fan of.

542
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 6: So you know, conservatives have complained for years at these

543
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:54,840
Speaker 6: late night shows tilt far to the left. They have

544
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 6: more Democrats on than Republicans. So we'll see if this

545
00:27:57,840 --> 00:27:59,120
Speaker 6: public interest standard.

546
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 2: Ye, because it take. It's a real thing.

547
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 5: It's been out there since nineteen thirty four.

548
00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 6: But you do feel like you see less and less

549
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:08,760
Speaker 6: of it. There's not a lot of the balanced approach.

550
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:12,119
Speaker 2: To comment that. I think. I'm like, are you lots

551
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:15,120
Speaker 2: of people aren't staying up to watch this stuff anymore?

552
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:17,679
Speaker 6: Right, because you can watch it the next day on YouTube.

553
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:20,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I don't. I don't the whole eleven

554
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:23,119
Speaker 2: eleven thirty midnight thing. I think it's sort of dripped

555
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:23,480
Speaker 2: it away.

556
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 6: Yeah, even SNL I don't watch it. I rarely watch

557
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:28,440
Speaker 6: it in real time. Well with these hours, we're really

558
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:30,360
Speaker 6: watching anything in real time late at night.

559
00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 5: All right, listen wonderfully one this story.

560
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 6: I like, Yeah, did you guys have Lincoln logs growing up?

561
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:39,040
Speaker 2: Oh? Yeah, of course I love it? Right, it was

562
00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 2: our legos?

563
00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:41,720
Speaker 6: All right, Well, I'm glad you're both sitting down because

564
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 6: the factory that makes Lincoln logs, it's in Maine shutting down.

565
00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 2: Yep. Yeah, this national crisis is Trump should address this shit.

566
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:52,720
Speaker 5: I mean this is big. Yes, So now they're trying

567
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 5: to scramble and find someplace in China or somewhere else

568
00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 5: that can make these things.

569
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:57,960
Speaker 6: Yeah, of course, I mean, so here's I guess the

570
00:28:57,960 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 6: good news is Lincoln logs isn't going away. It's just

571
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:04,440
Speaker 6: factory that made them. So the Pride Manufacturing is now

572
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 6: scrambling or Basic Fund is scrambling. That's the name of

573
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 6: the Basic Fund, scrambling to find a new factory to

574
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:12,680
Speaker 6: manufactory these there are sexually you.

575
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:15,200
Speaker 2: Can't make Lincoln logs in Vietnam, I think.

576
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 5: And then tariff, so the guys are saying, hey, we're

577
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 5: gonna have to make them outside the US. With the tariff,

578
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 5: they're gonna be more EPENSI we're gonna have to.

579
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 2: Better when the dog shoe, the green roofs your father goes,

580
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:27,800
Speaker 2: they're gonna die from them.

581
00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 6: Were you stepped on a Lincoln log in the middle

582
00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 6: of the night.

583
00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:32,920
Speaker 2: You may have to go buy some Lincoln logs.

584
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:38,000
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

585
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:42,400
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

586
00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

587
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

588
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

589
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal.

590
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 8: He was married s