1 00:00:01,000 --> 00:00:03,840 Speaker 1: Welcome in to Fantasy Baseball trade talk right here on 2 00:00:03,920 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros. I am Chris Welsh. We're closing in on 3 00:00:07,040 --> 00:00:09,520 Speaker 1: the All Star break, but that doesn't mean the trade 4 00:00:09,560 --> 00:00:11,799 Speaker 1: talk stop. So I have got some trade talk for 5 00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:14,160 Speaker 1: you today before we get jamming, though, hit that like 6 00:00:14,200 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 1: button so you're notified when we're dropping any and all 7 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:20,200 Speaker 1: of our videos. Also check out fantasypros dot com slash 8 00:00:20,239 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 1: Premium to get all the hottest fantasy tools from Fantasy Pros. Now, 9 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 1: let's get into some of the trades. I haven't really 10 00:00:26,960 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 1: been giving you guys a whole bunch of trade aways, 11 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:31,920 Speaker 1: but I do have a couple in this video. We're 12 00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 1: gonna start off with a few trade aways, then some 13 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:38,400 Speaker 1: trade fours right before the All Star break, So let's 14 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 1: do it. First. Up on the trade aways. Oh, it's 15 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:44,040 Speaker 1: always so dicey to talk to you guys about trade aways, 16 00:00:44,040 --> 00:00:46,080 Speaker 1: but I do have one. I feel pretty confident about 17 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:50,960 Speaker 1: Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert, and I personally like Gilbert, 18 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:53,280 Speaker 1: and I'm kind of open to the idea that he 19 00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:57,800 Speaker 1: could turn things around. This is a really smart, hardworking pitcher, 20 00:00:58,000 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 1: but things have just been going in the wrong direction. 21 00:01:01,360 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 1: On the year, Gilbert's got a four to one to 22 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:06,640 Speaker 1: nine ERA and a twenty five percent K percentage, But 23 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:10,560 Speaker 1: so far through the season, Gilbert hasn't had a single 24 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:14,360 Speaker 1: month under a three to nine to six ERA. In fact, 25 00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:17,080 Speaker 1: two of those other months are over four. Over the 26 00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 1: first three months, we've seen his walk rate increase, We've 27 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 1: seen his K percentage dip, with June being right around 28 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:28,399 Speaker 1: sixteen percent on the K percentage. Over the last thirty days, 29 00:01:28,600 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 1: Gilbert has an awful ten point six K minus walk 30 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:37,919 Speaker 1: percentage and a SIERRA worse than his ERA at four 31 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 1: point eighty eight. Gilbert's fastball has fallen really far behind 32 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:44,760 Speaker 1: this year and is contributing to bad results as his 33 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 1: wifth rate on the fastball, it's fallen by six percent 34 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:51,520 Speaker 1: year over year and is giving up a three hundred 35 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 1: batting average against Gilbert. Isn't exactly like a trade magnet here, 36 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:58,760 Speaker 1: but what I'm doing is looking to get out of 37 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 1: the Logan Gilbert business for the rest of the season. 38 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:04,040 Speaker 1: So I'm putting them up for trades, and I'm buying 39 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 1: on names that maybe people haven't quite caught up to 40 00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 1: now for the hitter that I'm looking to get out 41 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:15,080 Speaker 1: from Texas Rangers third baseman Josh Young. The All Star 42 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:18,800 Speaker 1: third baseman, got me a little bit worried. Those season stats. 43 00:02:18,840 --> 00:02:21,520 Speaker 1: They still look pretty solid. Two seventy four batting average, 44 00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:26,119 Speaker 1: seventeen homers, fifty six runs, fifty RBI. It's pretty dang good. 45 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:29,119 Speaker 1: That's four or five categories that he's contributing very well in. 46 00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 1: Plus he has had a pretty even distribution of homers 47 00:02:33,040 --> 00:02:37,399 Speaker 1: per month. The trends, though, shows batting average dipping three 48 00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:41,359 Speaker 1: straight months, with June hitting only two thirty three and 49 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:44,720 Speaker 1: a K percentage that is rising each month. Over the 50 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 1: last two weeks. He's also sported an inflated four to 51 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 1: twenty nine BABBB while only hitting two twenty nine. That's wild. 52 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:55,880 Speaker 1: That's not what we usually see with babbebs. And over 53 00:02:55,880 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 1: those last two weeks and eye opening forty eight percent 54 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:04,400 Speaker 1: K percentage, his numbers are enough that he still looks 55 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 1: really good in trades plus throwing that he's an All Star, 56 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:11,280 Speaker 1: which is going to prop up so many players in general. Young, 57 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 1: with his strikeout problems and bad trends, are someone I'm 58 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 1: looking to go maximize on right now. It's still a 59 00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:21,200 Speaker 1: great offense there will still be running RBI opportunities. My 60 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 1: worry is that the worst is yet to come, and 61 00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:26,640 Speaker 1: that's why I'm looking to get out of the Josh 62 00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:30,400 Speaker 1: Young business. Now, let's talk about a few guys. I 63 00:03:30,440 --> 00:03:35,560 Speaker 1: am trading four Texas Rangers Ezekiel Doran. So stop me 64 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 1: if you've heard this one, and I know you've heard 65 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:39,320 Speaker 1: me mention this name before. I actually may have done 66 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:42,480 Speaker 1: it on these videos before. But Ezekiel Doran has been 67 00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 1: on a tear and over the last few weeks it's 68 00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 1: been more of the same. How much Over the last 69 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:51,760 Speaker 1: two weeks, Doron has a twenty one percent barrel rate, 70 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 1: four homers, and tied for the tenth most hits in 71 00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 1: baseball in that span. On the year, Ezekiel Deurn hasn't 72 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 1: hit under three hundred any month of the season, and 73 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 1: since June eighteenth, Torn has had nine multi hit games. 74 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:09,760 Speaker 1: You go and look over on CBS roster ownership, he's 75 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 1: still only seventy nine percent owned, which is usually the 76 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:15,600 Speaker 1: higher end of any of the platforms you play on. 77 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 1: So what that is telling us he's still available out there. 78 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:22,160 Speaker 1: Similar to last week, in the quote, get this guy 79 00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:25,880 Speaker 1: thrown in your trade, Duran qualifies as that you could 80 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:29,320 Speaker 1: put together a smaller move of maybe like need you 81 00:04:29,320 --> 00:04:31,080 Speaker 1: know you're getting rid of like a lower end pitcher 82 00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:34,160 Speaker 1: relief pitcher to acquire Deran, or you could put this 83 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 1: as part of a bigger trade where the owner then 84 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:39,360 Speaker 1: throws in Deran for practically nothing, just as a filler 85 00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:42,160 Speaker 1: piece to the trade. His strikeout rate has been creeping 86 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:45,040 Speaker 1: up just a little bit, but his ability to make contact, 87 00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 1: hit for power and speed in one of the better 88 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:51,919 Speaker 1: lineups in baseball makes Ezekiel Duran a big trade target, 89 00:04:52,040 --> 00:04:54,440 Speaker 1: even for the second half. Next up, for the players 90 00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:58,920 Speaker 1: I'm trading for Toronto Blue Jays outfielder George Springer. Prior 91 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 1: split trends aren't like fully one for one. So example, 92 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:06,719 Speaker 1: just because a guy was a better second half player 93 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:09,039 Speaker 1: for last year, let's say, doesn't mean it will be 94 00:05:09,160 --> 00:05:11,800 Speaker 1: next year. It's not one hundred percent translation. But with 95 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:15,160 Speaker 1: George Springer, though, over the last three years, we've seen 96 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:20,720 Speaker 1: significantly better results on the second half twenty twenty over 97 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 1: one hundred points better on his batting average, in the 98 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 1: second half twenty twenty one over ninety points better on 99 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:33,360 Speaker 1: his batting average, and last year twenty twenty two forty 100 00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 1: points better on his batting average in the second half. 101 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:39,320 Speaker 1: So what can we take from that second half player? 102 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 1: Definitely in play for George Springer. Why is that so great? Well, 103 00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:46,080 Speaker 1: Springer this year is currently hitting two seventy with twelve 104 00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:49,400 Speaker 1: homers and twelve stolen bases. He's got an XBA right 105 00:05:49,440 --> 00:05:53,240 Speaker 1: around his batting average, with a barrel percentage, expected slug 106 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:57,080 Speaker 1: and expected WOEBA all better than last year. Over the 107 00:05:57,120 --> 00:05:59,880 Speaker 1: last two weeks, he's been particularly solid, hitting three f 108 00:06:00,120 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 1: forty one with thirty points higher ISO than his actual 109 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:08,200 Speaker 1: season total. And finally, the Batex projections for George Springer 110 00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:12,720 Speaker 1: have him hitting more RBI and more runs since twenty 111 00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:18,120 Speaker 1: nineteen and a career high nineteen stolen bases. Based on 112 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:21,320 Speaker 1: those projections, you're looking for five tools at less than 113 00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 1: a top fifty player cost. I am going to look 114 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:27,640 Speaker 1: at George Springer and hopefully at least the trends have 115 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:30,760 Speaker 1: told us with a bigger second half coming. And finally, 116 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:33,159 Speaker 1: on the trades, we are looking at San Diego Padres 117 00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:37,080 Speaker 1: pitcher you Darvish. Darvish has been known to run a 118 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:41,000 Speaker 1: little bit hot and cold. This year, it's been cold 119 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:45,159 Speaker 1: May in June, particularly, Darvish has posted a five plus ERA. 120 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:48,960 Speaker 1: May saw strikeouts dip under nine per nine, which is 121 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 1: very unusual for him, but it popped back up in July. 122 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:56,120 Speaker 1: Last year, Darvish had two months of an over four ERA, 123 00:06:56,320 --> 00:06:59,280 Speaker 1: but the rest were three and under. We also kind 124 00:06:59,279 --> 00:07:01,160 Speaker 1: of saw a similar thing in twenty twenty one, where 125 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:03,920 Speaker 1: the first three months he had a three or under ERA, 126 00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:08,360 Speaker 1: with the final three months being six or greater. So 127 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:12,400 Speaker 1: we can tell Darvish is gonna have a couple garbage 128 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:15,720 Speaker 1: months and a couple great months. Darvas has seen a 129 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:17,600 Speaker 1: little bit of a decrease in his VLO from the 130 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:21,040 Speaker 1: fastball and the slider, a little bit worrisome, but he's 131 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:24,680 Speaker 1: also sporting an expected ERA a run lower than his 132 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:29,320 Speaker 1: current RA. Darvish throws so many pitches, and I personally 133 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 1: believe that can play a role in affecting his rhythm 134 00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:36,280 Speaker 1: and timing and getting back on sync. Sometimes these guys 135 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:39,120 Speaker 1: just need to master that pitch where he just moves 136 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 1: on and can move on to another if things aren't working. 137 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:44,560 Speaker 1: But for those same reasons, that's why he is so 138 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:48,400 Speaker 1: nasty and effective. So the team as a whole has 139 00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:50,240 Speaker 1: been a little bit of a black hole, but Darvish 140 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 1: is a nice bet to buy much cheaper at the 141 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 1: All Star break coming up. We know he runs hot 142 00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:59,440 Speaker 1: and cold. It's been mainly cold, so the hot presumably 143 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 1: is coming, and Darvish is a guy to bet on. 144 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:05,360 Speaker 1: We've got your back on waivers, trades and daily shows 145 00:08:05,400 --> 00:08:08,320 Speaker 1: here on Fantasy Pros and we're just about halfway home. 146 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:10,920 Speaker 1: So I hope you've enjoyed the videos we've been doing, 147 00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:13,840 Speaker 1: and I hope you've scored some big wins. If you have, 148 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:16,440 Speaker 1: let us know in the comments what's been your best 149 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 1: trade you've pulled off that we've talked about. If you 150 00:08:19,080 --> 00:08:22,040 Speaker 1: do and your subscribe, you could win a premium subscription 151 00:08:22,120 --> 00:08:25,560 Speaker 1: to Fantasy Pros for the year, pretty sweet for free. 152 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 1: Follow me on Twitter at isit the Welsh and tune 153 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:31,119 Speaker 1: in Monday through Friday to leading off at twelve thirty 154 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 1: pm Eastern every single day except like on a holiday. 155 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:37,200 Speaker 1: Talk to you next time, friends right here on Fantasy 156 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:42,080 Speaker 1: Pros MLB. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Baseball podcast. 157 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:46,280 Speaker 1: Follow us on Twitter at Fantasy Pros MLB, and subscribe 158 00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:49,520 Speaker 1: to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy 159 00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:50,320 Speaker 1: pros MLB