1
00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:02,800
Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game?

2
00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:05,400
Speaker 2: Do us proud read a lot?

3
00:00:06,200 --> 00:00:13,920
Speaker 3: They're up for running a game so smooth, so sweet.

4
00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:19,239
Speaker 1: Splendid sixteing, just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for

5
00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:22,560
Speaker 1: is sixty percent effort, four thousand percent of the time.

6
00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:25,440
Speaker 3: How shot with that shot of mine?

7
00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:28,960
Speaker 1: Buddy, And that's why you see your beautiful Tias.

8
00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:31,800
Speaker 2: Look at his movements, the most dangerous a mount on

9
00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:32,280
Speaker 2: the planet.

10
00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:42,400
Speaker 1: Nobody picture them. Shut up. I'm trying again, be wove.

11
00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:47,040
Speaker 1: It's left to one of the white eyed, drilled bibus.

12
00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:49,800
Speaker 2: How old on Earth did that happens?

13
00:00:52,560 --> 00:00:55,680
Speaker 3: Hello everyone, and welcome to Wonderful the Soccer Petting podcast

14
00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:58,120
Speaker 3: from the Action Network. My name is Michael Ebuff, and

15
00:00:58,200 --> 00:01:03,080
Speaker 3: joining me for this our first Champions League match preview

16
00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:07,679
Speaker 3: pod is bj Cunningham and Anthony Debundo of The Ringer

17
00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:12,399
Speaker 3: and Gentlemen. It's a new dawn, a new era in

18
00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:17,560
Speaker 3: the Champions League. Six matches on Tuesday, six matches on Wednesday,

19
00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:21,679
Speaker 3: six matches on Thursday. Eighteen matches in these group stage

20
00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:24,440
Speaker 3: match weeks. We're not gonna go match by match here,

21
00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:28,880
Speaker 3: We're gonna see what works. We're like you flying into

22
00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:32,119
Speaker 3: this new format a little blind. So what we've done

23
00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:35,520
Speaker 3: is picked out a handful of matches to go over,

24
00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:38,880
Speaker 3: dig into a little bit, give out some bets. Then

25
00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:43,520
Speaker 3: we'll fire off some rapid fire bets, do an underdog parlay,

26
00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:46,240
Speaker 3: and then give out our favorite bet for Champions League

27
00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:49,520
Speaker 3: match Week one. Then we'll get out of here and

28
00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:54,360
Speaker 3: leave you to it, BJ and Anthony. We'll start with

29
00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:58,560
Speaker 3: a Wednesday three pm Eastern Time kickoff between Manchester City.

30
00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:04,320
Speaker 3: They are minus one ninety taking on Inter in a

31
00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:10,079
Speaker 3: Champions League Final twenty twenty three rematch. I believe Inter

32
00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:12,359
Speaker 3: traveling at plus four seventy five. The draw here is

33
00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:14,880
Speaker 3: plus three fifty. I think early Collins said a another

34
00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:18,000
Speaker 3: new record this weekend.

35
00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:20,760
Speaker 2: Hat trick, Yeah, pat.

36
00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:25,720
Speaker 3: Trick this weekend, But I mean the the edison to

37
00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:30,560
Speaker 3: Hail Mary. It was just beautiful. Anyways, no one can

38
00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:34,480
Speaker 3: stop City. There obviously a lapside of favorite here against

39
00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:38,040
Speaker 3: a really good Inter team, and I still don't have

40
00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:41,079
Speaker 3: much of a palette to try to beat them. It's

41
00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:45,240
Speaker 3: just getting tired at this point. But the total does

42
00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:47,360
Speaker 3: look interesting, Bjay, and that's where we'll start.

43
00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:50,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, under three minus one ten. I really like that

44
00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:53,200
Speaker 1: a lot, so let's go back to the final from

45
00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:55,760
Speaker 1: two years ago, because you know, I would say these

46
00:02:55,760 --> 00:02:59,040
Speaker 1: teams are are pretty similar, Like Inter is basically similar

47
00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:01,639
Speaker 1: than what they were in final, and City now has

48
00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:04,040
Speaker 1: two wingers that can you know, go one B one

49
00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:05,280
Speaker 1: and outside of that, they're pretty.

50
00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:05,560
Speaker 3: Much the same.

51
00:03:07,560 --> 00:03:09,600
Speaker 1: So in that match you could I think you can

52
00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:12,480
Speaker 1: make the argument the Inter should have won, and they

53
00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:14,440
Speaker 1: had the two best chances by far in the entitled

54
00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:17,480
Speaker 1: tire match. But what they did against Manchester City is

55
00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:19,720
Speaker 1: they prevented them from doing the one thing they want

56
00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:21,519
Speaker 1: to do, which is play through the middle. They held

57
00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:25,840
Speaker 1: City to seven shots, zero point seven expected goals, and

58
00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:28,880
Speaker 1: they only let City have a field tilt of fifty

59
00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:31,840
Speaker 1: two percent. That is really difficult to do against Manchester

60
00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:34,120
Speaker 1: City and the reason for that is is because it

61
00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:36,400
Speaker 1: enters five three two shape, Like I said, denying space

62
00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:38,760
Speaker 1: to the middle, having the two forwards be able to

63
00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:42,240
Speaker 1: cover the holding midfielder and in this case rodery, and

64
00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:44,280
Speaker 1: not allowing City no matter what they try to do,

65
00:03:44,320 --> 00:03:47,240
Speaker 1: they're gonna have to bring six, maybe even seven guys

66
00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:49,720
Speaker 1: to try to overload the middle. And we know Pep

67
00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:52,240
Speaker 1: is kind of obsessed with doing that and Enter's fullbacks

68
00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:54,200
Speaker 1: are very good defending in one b ones as well,

69
00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:57,200
Speaker 1: so they're really really difficult to break down. That's why

70
00:03:57,240 --> 00:03:59,480
Speaker 1: they only allowed point seven to four non penalty expected

71
00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:02,960
Speaker 1: goals per ninety in Syria A last season. But what

72
00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:05,600
Speaker 1: makes them so dangerous in this match and I think

73
00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:07,800
Speaker 1: they're actually a little bit live to maybe beat City here.

74
00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:12,360
Speaker 1: The number is not good enough, but they are versatile

75
00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:14,320
Speaker 1: in possession, like they can build out of the back.

76
00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:17,039
Speaker 1: But they're also very good at playing direct and playing

77
00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:19,719
Speaker 1: vertical balls up over the top of City's press, which

78
00:04:19,839 --> 00:04:21,520
Speaker 1: has been much better this season. You know a lot

79
00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:24,240
Speaker 1: of Cities chances and that they've created have been off

80
00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:26,920
Speaker 1: of high turnovers. You know, went against west Ham and

81
00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:29,160
Speaker 1: Ipswich and even Brentford turned it over a couple times

82
00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:32,599
Speaker 1: against them. Enter in that match completed sixty two percent

83
00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:34,840
Speaker 1: of the long balls and most importantly, the center backs

84
00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:37,920
Speaker 1: completed fifteen of twenty long balls. That's a very very

85
00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:41,680
Speaker 1: high percentage. So look for Inter to sit deep here

86
00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:43,280
Speaker 1: in their five to three to two. Look for them

87
00:04:43,320 --> 00:04:46,839
Speaker 1: tony space and look for this thing I think to

88
00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:48,760
Speaker 1: be a little slow. It is the first match the

89
00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:51,200
Speaker 1: Champions League. It's a terrible spot for City because they

90
00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:54,039
Speaker 1: have Arsenal on the weekend, so I think introv will

91
00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:57,360
Speaker 1: be going there with the mindset of let's win this

92
00:04:57,400 --> 00:04:58,880
Speaker 1: thing one. No, we don't need to get into a

93
00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:00,479
Speaker 1: track new with them. We just need to sit deep

94
00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:02,880
Speaker 1: and look to counter them. So look for this be very,

95
00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:07,320
Speaker 1: very slow type match. I only projected I think a

96
00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:11,200
Speaker 1: little round two and a half expected goals, so under

97
00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:13,120
Speaker 1: three and I think minus one twenty or better is

98
00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:13,719
Speaker 1: good enough for me.

99
00:05:14,400 --> 00:05:18,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, we talked a lot on over the weekend or

100
00:05:18,360 --> 00:05:21,440
Speaker 3: to preview the weekend about those the first half hunderds.

101
00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:24,520
Speaker 3: The City one didn't come through, but we got the

102
00:05:24,520 --> 00:05:25,640
Speaker 3: one on Liverpool and it was.

103
00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:27,520
Speaker 1: It was live for twenty two seconds though.

104
00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:30,360
Speaker 3: So yeah it was. That's yeah, it was. That's worth

105
00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:32,880
Speaker 3: a sweat. Yeah, but I I like it again here

106
00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:36,159
Speaker 3: even though City it feels like these teams these days

107
00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:38,919
Speaker 3: have like a handshake agreement where they'll just let City

108
00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:41,520
Speaker 3: walk down the middle of the pitch, score the first

109
00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:44,760
Speaker 3: goal and like get the game onto we'll start from there.

110
00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:47,280
Speaker 2: City have been given up early goals.

111
00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:52,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's three straight three and not to think something

112
00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:54,680
Speaker 3: to that, because I mean I met the other way around.

113
00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:57,480
Speaker 3: Like it's like I feel like Cities like let them

114
00:05:57,520 --> 00:06:01,080
Speaker 3: score and we'll get the handy juices. Yeah, I mean

115
00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:02,880
Speaker 3: it's crazy.

116
00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:05,720
Speaker 1: That they they first twenty minutes Brentford hammered them worse

117
00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:08,159
Speaker 1: than any team's hammered them in a long time, which

118
00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:11,599
Speaker 1: I think is interesting. I mean, was so sloppy defensively

119
00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:13,880
Speaker 1: from City. It just really was so I don't.

120
00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:15,320
Speaker 2: Know, I hadn't even pulled off the stream yet it

121
00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:16,200
Speaker 2: was already one nail.

122
00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:19,839
Speaker 3: And that happened again. I mean against Ipswich too. I

123
00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:22,280
Speaker 3: was like, all right, I'm going to check in intermittently

124
00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:23,680
Speaker 3: and then all of a sudden it's one nothing and

125
00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:28,080
Speaker 3: then City clicked into gear and it's just anyways. So

126
00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:30,880
Speaker 3: I'm going to go with it again because like BJA,

127
00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:33,480
Speaker 3: I think that this first match week is going to

128
00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:38,400
Speaker 3: be a little awkward more than anything, coming off an

129
00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:41,480
Speaker 3: international breaks, huge match of City coming on the weekend,

130
00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:45,919
Speaker 3: uh and inter wanting to go there, and with the

131
00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:49,360
Speaker 3: way that this sets up like it's it is a league, right,

132
00:06:49,440 --> 00:06:53,000
Speaker 3: so you do you want to just go get a

133
00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:55,520
Speaker 3: draw and scratch out draws and away days rather than

134
00:06:55,960 --> 00:06:57,800
Speaker 3: knowing that you're going to need to at least probably

135
00:06:57,880 --> 00:07:01,240
Speaker 3: Nick a win here or there in the old group phases.

136
00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:03,600
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think the thing lumbers. So first half

137
00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:06,560
Speaker 3: under no like a first half to be nil nil

138
00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:11,680
Speaker 3: at plus two sixty, I think it's worth a bet

139
00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:15,160
Speaker 3: for maybe we'll get to the first through thirty seconds

140
00:07:15,160 --> 00:07:16,800
Speaker 3: this time, Anthony, I'm.

141
00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:21,000
Speaker 2: Trying to find the who to score first prop. Curious

142
00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:23,280
Speaker 2: what enter would be on that market. It seems like

143
00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:26,480
Speaker 2: it's like an Edison thing too, where he like forgets

144
00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:28,480
Speaker 2: when the match starts and then all of a sudden

145
00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:31,520
Speaker 2: it's one nil and they've conceded their first shot in

146
00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:36,120
Speaker 2: all three matches too, which is pretty funny. They also

147
00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:38,360
Speaker 2: haven't played to anybody, so Holland does kind of just

148
00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:43,080
Speaker 2: like run over the bad defenses they've played. And Brentford okay,

149
00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:45,960
Speaker 2: they're fine, but they haven't played any great teams yet,

150
00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:47,920
Speaker 2: so this is like a first real test. They go

151
00:07:47,960 --> 00:07:50,440
Speaker 2: to Chelsea and Holland bullies is way to one goal.

152
00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:52,440
Speaker 2: But I didn't think they looked good at attacking that match,

153
00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:55,720
Speaker 2: and I agree with BJ under three. I did almost

154
00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:59,560
Speaker 2: boycott this podcast just because of I thought BJ was

155
00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:02,440
Speaker 2: going to talk trash about Arsenal and Spurs Sunday, So

156
00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:05,760
Speaker 2: I'm still here, but I just.

157
00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:09,760
Speaker 1: Rotary stuff, Anthony. That's all Jack, We look ahead said

158
00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:12,320
Speaker 1: piece they were supposed to do.

159
00:08:12,880 --> 00:08:14,920
Speaker 2: Anyway, I think one thing to watch here is how

160
00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:20,120
Speaker 2: does Zogie manage it, because we could see some rotation.

161
00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:24,160
Speaker 2: They played today a Sunday in the league and only

162
00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:28,160
Speaker 2: fifty six minutes for Lautaro seventy four for tam seem like,

163
00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:30,200
Speaker 2: you know, they were losing for large portions of that

164
00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:34,120
Speaker 2: match or tied, so maybe they were putting one eye

165
00:08:34,160 --> 00:08:36,600
Speaker 2: on Wednesday. But also we've seen them rotate in the

166
00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:40,120
Speaker 2: Champions League two and coming straight back off the break here, Like,

167
00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:43,360
Speaker 2: I think you're more likely in an eight match league

168
00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:46,480
Speaker 2: setting to see inter say, hey, you know, we lose

169
00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:48,400
Speaker 2: this one, not a big deal. We're not going to

170
00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:51,760
Speaker 2: burn our guys, our best attackers going all out for

171
00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:54,599
Speaker 2: a point at City when we know we're going to

172
00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:56,960
Speaker 2: have matches against the weaker teams in coming weeks. Now

173
00:08:57,000 --> 00:08:58,959
Speaker 2: it is the first match, but again I just think

174
00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:01,240
Speaker 2: that's on the board as a potential thing that could happen,

175
00:09:01,559 --> 00:09:03,400
Speaker 2: and it's a second away match in a row for them.

176
00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:03,480
Speaker 1: So.

177
00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:06,880
Speaker 2: All that points to the under for me. You mentioned

178
00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:10,319
Speaker 2: the Champions League match a couple of years ago. The

179
00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:12,240
Speaker 2: City was on fumes at the end of that match

180
00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:14,000
Speaker 2: at the end of that season, like they were gassed,

181
00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:15,760
Speaker 2: and I think that played a large role in why

182
00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:18,080
Speaker 2: it was such a sloppy kind of low event match.

183
00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:22,280
Speaker 2: But even still, is inter that much different from Arsenal

184
00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:25,240
Speaker 2: overall because the over under is two and a half

185
00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:29,320
Speaker 2: flat for City Arsenal minus one ten each way on

186
00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:32,440
Speaker 2: Sunday or Saturday, whenever that match is. I think it's Sunday,

187
00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:35,920
Speaker 2: and the one for this match over two and a

188
00:09:35,920 --> 00:09:38,559
Speaker 2: half minus one seventy five. I know Champions League inherently

189
00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:41,680
Speaker 2: gonna be a little bit higher event than the prem

190
00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:44,680
Speaker 2: although maybe not true anymore. And it's our Teta pep

191
00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:47,560
Speaker 2: like they have this history. But in Zogie is not

192
00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:49,319
Speaker 2: a guy who wants to get in the track meets,

193
00:09:49,320 --> 00:09:51,560
Speaker 2: like you mentioned, So under three for me as well,

194
00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:54,080
Speaker 2: got a lot of unders on this board. I'm very

195
00:09:54,800 --> 00:09:58,079
Speaker 2: concerned about it, but that's where I'm rolling.

196
00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:02,360
Speaker 3: I'm sure it'll all go over really well. So that's

197
00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:07,160
Speaker 3: Wednesday three pm. Tuesday three pm Eastern time is a

198
00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:13,040
Speaker 3: kickoff between Milan in Liverpool. This one in Italy Milan

199
00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:16,200
Speaker 3: plus two to eighty, Liverpool traveling at minus one ten

200
00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:19,520
Speaker 3: to draw is plus two seventy five. I would have

201
00:10:19,600 --> 00:10:22,080
Speaker 3: said this before the Forest match. It does. I do

202
00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:26,800
Speaker 3: feel like this is a little this price flatters Liverpool

203
00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:31,920
Speaker 3: a little bit here on the road first Champions League

204
00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:34,640
Speaker 3: match under slot. I know Milan hasn't set the world

205
00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:40,360
Speaker 3: on fire in Syria, ah, but that said, I kind

206
00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:45,400
Speaker 3: of view it in a similar lens Anthony to Liverpool

207
00:10:45,640 --> 00:10:49,600
Speaker 3: to City and enter where I just don't think either

208
00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:53,240
Speaker 3: team would be too ticked off with this thing being

209
00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:55,440
Speaker 3: a little bit of a snoozer and the way that

210
00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:57,800
Speaker 3: Milon's played in Syria. It's been a little bit more

211
00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:03,280
Speaker 3: high event in Liverpool, of course likes, but something's telling me,

212
00:11:03,320 --> 00:11:05,200
Speaker 3: like you were saying, like bending a bunch of unders

213
00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:08,600
Speaker 3: in this first week. Perhaps it blows up in our face,

214
00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:11,560
Speaker 3: but it just feels like this is going to be

215
00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:17,280
Speaker 3: really awkward first match week of this competition.

216
00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:22,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean been discussing Liverpool. I guess I haven't

217
00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:25,160
Speaker 2: discussed them on Wonder Goal, but on our Ringer show.

218
00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:28,520
Speaker 2: I think I bet Liverpool under three straight weeks now,

219
00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:30,800
Speaker 2: and I just think the market continues to kind of

220
00:11:30,920 --> 00:11:34,600
Speaker 2: slowly adjusted, not quickly enough adjust to how different slotball

221
00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:38,480
Speaker 2: is to clop. And you saw the limitations of Liverpool

222
00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:41,720
Speaker 2: against Forrest, a team who's willing to sit in, be physical,

223
00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:44,320
Speaker 2: take away the center, forced saw a bush slide to

224
00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:48,480
Speaker 2: be like the primary creator. They looked pretty bad in

225
00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:51,480
Speaker 2: that Forest match. Now it's one match, whatever, but I

226
00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:54,000
Speaker 2: just I'm a little concerned about Milan because their defensive

227
00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:57,160
Speaker 2: metrics have been awful awful for a good part of

228
00:11:57,160 --> 00:12:02,000
Speaker 2: a year now and it hasn't translated well thus far

229
00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:08,200
Speaker 2: in the club. And Fonseka is not as conservative generally

230
00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:11,559
Speaker 2: as Pioli was, right, so he is going to take

231
00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:14,320
Speaker 2: more chances and want to have a little more of

232
00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:17,160
Speaker 2: the ball. But the results, I mean, they've given up

233
00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:20,000
Speaker 2: five XG and four matches and they haven't really played

234
00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:24,360
Speaker 2: exactly a tough schedule. They've played to Reno, Parma, Lazzio Venezia,

235
00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:28,800
Speaker 2: so that is a little scary, right. Their defensive metrics

236
00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:31,960
Speaker 2: are bad, but they're at home, and I think Liverpool

237
00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:34,760
Speaker 2: still continues to be an under team for me, so

238
00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:37,600
Speaker 2: under three is good minus one ten. I would not

239
00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:40,240
Speaker 2: start to lay big juice here though, because again, if

240
00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:41,840
Speaker 2: the Milan's defense is as bad as I think it

241
00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:44,880
Speaker 2: might be. Maybe Liverpool does get a bunch of opportunities

242
00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:48,160
Speaker 2: on the break and break this thing open. But I

243
00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:50,920
Speaker 2: really do like what Liverpool's done defensively. They lost to Forrest,

244
00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:52,760
Speaker 2: conceded their first goal of the season, but they didn't

245
00:12:52,760 --> 00:12:55,000
Speaker 2: give up anything in that match at all.

246
00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:55,440
Speaker 3: Really.

247
00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:59,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I did watch the Lazio A C.

248
00:12:59,559 --> 00:13:03,000
Speaker 1: Milan ma, and I will say that, you know, fun

249
00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:07,440
Speaker 1: sake because Lil teams would primarily press to generate long

250
00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:09,480
Speaker 1: balls up, you know, off the pitch, So if they

251
00:13:09,480 --> 00:13:11,520
Speaker 1: were playing dergen klops Liverpool, it'd have been like, you know,

252
00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:16,360
Speaker 1: the perfect situation. But now they're not. So do they

253
00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:20,160
Speaker 1: sit back, do they press? I don't know this For me.

254
00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:22,079
Speaker 1: I think the mark is just kind of in line here.

255
00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:26,400
Speaker 1: I think the line is right on Liverpool three is interesting,

256
00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:29,319
Speaker 1: Like Anthony said, a little bit worrying with a Cymlan's

257
00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:31,880
Speaker 1: defensive metrics. So I think I'm just going to sit

258
00:13:31,920 --> 00:13:34,520
Speaker 1: out this first match, watch Acey Milan, see how they play,

259
00:13:35,679 --> 00:13:37,960
Speaker 1: and I think it'll give a You know, Liverpool's got

260
00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:40,559
Speaker 1: Bournemouth on the weekend, so I think it's going to

261
00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:42,640
Speaker 1: be very interesting to see what a cmulan does here.

262
00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:46,959
Speaker 1: We haven't really seen a team try and press Liverpool

263
00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:51,680
Speaker 1: like crazily like Mournemouth's going to, so I don't know

264
00:13:51,760 --> 00:13:53,720
Speaker 1: it'll be interesting. But I'm just sitting out this match

265
00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:56,240
Speaker 1: because I haven't projected pretty close to the market, so I'm.

266
00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:59,400
Speaker 2: Passing Liverpool Bournemouth three and a half again this weekend.

267
00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:03,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, also crazy almost one and a half as well.

268
00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:09,960
Speaker 4: Yeah it should three and a half one ten Yeah, Wellpool,

269
00:14:10,040 --> 00:14:12,120
Speaker 4: I mean, when they score four goals in a match,

270
00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:14,080
Speaker 4: maybe I'll adjust, but it hasn't happened yet. They haven't

271
00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:15,959
Speaker 4: had more than two or three in any match. And

272
00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:18,640
Speaker 4: uh and they got I mean Casamiro handed.

273
00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:23,120
Speaker 2: Them multiple goals in that game, so ye a, they

274
00:14:23,160 --> 00:14:24,920
Speaker 2: go bonus play. I won't be on Wednesday pods, but

275
00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:26,840
Speaker 2: I'll lock it in.

276
00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:30,800
Speaker 5: They'm gonna be on this here more than.

277
00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:34,800
Speaker 3: Three and a half. Another Tuesday three pm kickoff. Real

278
00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:38,320
Speaker 3: Madrid defending champions. We say that basically every other year

279
00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:41,520
Speaker 3: in this competition. There minus three forty hosting stutte Gart

280
00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:46,680
Speaker 3: out of the Bundesliga newcombers for them been a while.

281
00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:51,400
Speaker 3: They are plus seven fifty going to the Santiago burnabout

282
00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:53,320
Speaker 3: and the draw here is plus five hundred. I like

283
00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:55,920
Speaker 3: the underdog here. I think there's gonna be I think

284
00:14:55,960 --> 00:15:00,560
Speaker 3: there's gonna be a few spots here. This what this

285
00:15:00,680 --> 00:15:01,160
Speaker 3: is one.

286
00:15:00,960 --> 00:15:05,160
Speaker 2: Of them and role reversal. Really usually we're the ones saying.

287
00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:09,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I know, but it's early in the competition. This

288
00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:11,800
Speaker 3: kind of reminds me of that Celtics bought a couple

289
00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:16,000
Speaker 3: of years ago that it worked out so well at.

290
00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:16,680
Speaker 2: Least they were at home.

291
00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:21,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I know, but I just I think that things

292
00:15:21,800 --> 00:15:25,800
Speaker 3: are are going to be weird. Uh quick turn around

293
00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:28,920
Speaker 3: from for obviously everybody over the weekend. I know stut

294
00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:32,440
Speaker 3: Cart's traveling here. I just think this line is giving

295
00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:37,080
Speaker 3: too much credit to Madrid for what uh you guys

296
00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:39,760
Speaker 3: always talk about, right, the magic doesn't really count until

297
00:15:39,760 --> 00:15:41,880
Speaker 3: we get to the to the round of sixteen, right,

298
00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:43,320
Speaker 3: Like that's when it starts to matter.

299
00:15:43,520 --> 00:15:45,240
Speaker 2: But I think they Napoli. It cost me some money

300
00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:45,720
Speaker 2: last year.

301
00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:50,479
Speaker 3: Yeah, and they usually have like just a dut.

302
00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:56,440
Speaker 5: Sheriff that sheriff win from like four years ago. We're

303
00:15:56,480 --> 00:16:00,360
Speaker 5: still every couple of episodes people that ride people they

304
00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:02,320
Speaker 5: be sheriff.

305
00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:06,440
Speaker 3: My point is that like thinkure about how the under

306
00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:10,000
Speaker 3: uh Steve cart stut Kart's not off and running in

307
00:16:10,040 --> 00:16:13,720
Speaker 3: the in the Bundesliga. It's still so early for everybody,

308
00:16:13,760 --> 00:16:18,240
Speaker 3: but really solid outfit from last season. I know, uh,

309
00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:22,880
Speaker 3: Real Madrid got better, but it's I don't know. I

310
00:16:22,920 --> 00:16:24,920
Speaker 3: feel like this, this line is just too high on

311
00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:27,440
Speaker 3: a on a good team, a little bit of an

312
00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:32,160
Speaker 3: obviously an unknown in this competition, someone's gonna lay an

313
00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:35,600
Speaker 3: egg and I am going to pick against the team

314
00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:38,760
Speaker 3: that I always like to back in Real Madrid here Anthony.

315
00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:41,440
Speaker 2: So in theory we would not want to back a

316
00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:47,240
Speaker 2: pressing Bundesliga team at burnabaw right. But Real Madrid did

317
00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:49,640
Speaker 2: play Leipzig twice and Dortmann last year and they were

318
00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:52,040
Speaker 2: not particularly good in any of those matches. I know

319
00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:54,520
Speaker 2: they won the Champions League final, YadA, YadA, but the

320
00:16:54,560 --> 00:17:01,520
Speaker 2: first half was scary, scary bad. So this stute guard

321
00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:05,240
Speaker 2: team who looks much closer to the league average one

322
00:17:05,280 --> 00:17:07,480
Speaker 2: from two years ago than the really good one. They

323
00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:10,840
Speaker 2: lost a lot of pieces, right, so Anton goes Gira Sigos,

324
00:17:10,840 --> 00:17:14,320
Speaker 2: like half the midfield's gone. They kind of got raided.

325
00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:18,320
Speaker 2: And you know Damirovich, who was like a bottom of

326
00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:21,800
Speaker 2: the barrel striker at Ausburg is now their leading scorer

327
00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:26,600
Speaker 2: and Real Madrid hasn't had the game yet. I've been

328
00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:29,720
Speaker 2: betting a lot of their unders and that's the only

329
00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:32,160
Speaker 2: way I would look here. But we just watched stute Gart.

330
00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:34,119
Speaker 2: I mean they got the win at Glodbach, but they

331
00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:39,920
Speaker 2: were Their defense this season has been shambala unbelievably bad,

332
00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:43,160
Speaker 2: and they got away with a lot against Claudbach. Gave

333
00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:45,920
Speaker 2: up one point six x G should have been more.

334
00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:49,520
Speaker 2: Gladpak missed some opportunities that would have led to big chances.

335
00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:53,439
Speaker 2: Like it was very poor defending. So this one's a

336
00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:56,240
Speaker 2: stay away from me. I can't do it. I'm gonna pass.

337
00:17:56,760 --> 00:17:58,440
Speaker 2: I just don't want to take stut Guard. I can't

338
00:17:58,440 --> 00:17:59,440
Speaker 2: do it.

339
00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:02,520
Speaker 3: It's amazing. Oh this is this is a new The

340
00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:04,520
Speaker 3: calendar flips and all of a sudden, we're all sitting

341
00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:07,720
Speaker 3: at different seats. Uh. And I'm trying to beg bj

342
00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:10,000
Speaker 3: over the line here on Real Madrid.

343
00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:12,520
Speaker 2: Unders have hit I think every league match thus far.

344
00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:18,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's so scary with how bad the stute Guard

345
00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:21,000
Speaker 1: defense is. I mean they lost their two best center backs,

346
00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:25,679
Speaker 1: they lost, they lost Anton like they did nothing. They

347
00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:28,000
Speaker 1: did nothing to replace them except just by strikers.

348
00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:35,680
Speaker 2: So yeah, so that's the place the h I don't know,

349
00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:38,280
Speaker 2: I don't I don't really buy this team anymore. It's sad.

350
00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:41,119
Speaker 2: Last year, like Stutgart was a cash cow for us

351
00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:45,240
Speaker 2: as a podcast, but they got smoked on the road

352
00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:48,199
Speaker 2: at Friedburg. They blew a three to one lead against

353
00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:49,720
Speaker 2: Mines like it was ugly.

354
00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:52,080
Speaker 1: And they got Dortmund coming coming to their.

355
00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:53,400
Speaker 3: Place on the weekend as well.

356
00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:56,000
Speaker 2: Now you're gonna I'm probably gonna bet them this weekend.

357
00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:58,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, a road.

358
00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:03,640
Speaker 2: Favorite there, Uh, it probably should be, right. I can't

359
00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:05,960
Speaker 2: imagine their favorite their favorite. I'll bets Stutgart.

360
00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:09,200
Speaker 1: But stuke Gard is plus one twenty five at home,

361
00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:11,919
Speaker 1: so yeah, no, thanks.

362
00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:15,480
Speaker 3: Okay that's Tuesday three pm. Wednesday three pm kickoff is

363
00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:19,880
Speaker 3: between PSG and Girona, another newcomer. This one has PSG

364
00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:22,760
Speaker 3: at minus two fifty at home, Girona traveling at six

365
00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:26,200
Speaker 3: to one. The draw here is plus four one hundred.

366
00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:29,000
Speaker 3: Anything for you here, BJ.

367
00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:34,720
Speaker 1: No, the line is getting a little high. I'll say that.

368
00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:38,520
Speaker 1: You know, PSG was like minus two hundred, now they're

369
00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:42,199
Speaker 1: getting up to minus two forty if I were to

370
00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:46,560
Speaker 1: look at anything for this match, I mean we do

371
00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:50,440
Speaker 1: have three and a half at plus one twenty. Girona

372
00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:53,439
Speaker 1: obviously very very aggressive out a possession team with the

373
00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:57,600
Speaker 1: way they like to press, which you know under Enrique.

374
00:19:57,640 --> 00:19:59,119
Speaker 1: I mean PSG is going to try to build out

375
00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:01,280
Speaker 1: of the back, which creates you know, like I always

376
00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:03,480
Speaker 1: say one of two things, either high turnovers or PSG

377
00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:07,040
Speaker 1: is gonna get chances on the other end. But you know,

378
00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:09,480
Speaker 1: with Jeronah losing their best striker and their best winger,

379
00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:14,000
Speaker 1: it makes it really hard to get behind them, especially

380
00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:16,240
Speaker 1: this big of an underdog, or even get behind and over.

381
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:20,040
Speaker 1: So for me, I'm passing on this one.

382
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:24,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, Gironah is such a classic like cook, the bad

383
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:28,399
Speaker 2: teams get cooked by the good teams team because they've played.

384
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:30,680
Speaker 2: If you look at their stats this year, they got

385
00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:34,240
Speaker 2: wrecked by ed Letti three. No, then they come home,

386
00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:38,320
Speaker 2: they wreck os Sosuna, they re Sevilla. Everybody's like, oh yeah,

387
00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:42,080
Speaker 2: Jerona might be decent. They played Barsa on Sunday wrecked,

388
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:46,600
Speaker 2: just completely uncompetitive for large stretches and can't defend against

389
00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:51,400
Speaker 2: the good teams. Like you said, BJ, I actually did

390
00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:54,520
Speaker 2: some of the prep work Sunday morning, and then saw

391
00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:55,919
Speaker 2: they were that number and was like, oh, I'm met

392
00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:58,440
Speaker 2: in PSG. And then I made the mistake of waiting

393
00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:01,800
Speaker 2: until after the Barsia Jerona mat And now I think

394
00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 2: the value has kind of been bet out of it

395
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:06,080
Speaker 2: PfP one and a half minus one and a half

396
00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:09,040
Speaker 2: plus money. I kind of think they fit the perfect cat.

397
00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:12,040
Speaker 2: Like Girona has no defensive midfielders, they have no ball winners,

398
00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:13,840
Speaker 2: so if you play a team really good in possession,

399
00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:16,280
Speaker 2: you can just kind of cook them, play right through

400
00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:18,120
Speaker 2: them like they're not there. It's what Real Madrid did,

401
00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:21,640
Speaker 2: Barsa did it at Letti, you know, so I kind

402
00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:23,919
Speaker 2: of think PSG can just do that. So I love

403
00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:25,800
Speaker 2: this matchup for them. But yeah, you're starting out, you're

404
00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:28,600
Speaker 2: paying a premium now, I mean I think it's probably

405
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:31,119
Speaker 2: properly priced. But it be PSG or nothing, all right.

406
00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:33,879
Speaker 3: That brings us to a team near and dear to

407
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:37,040
Speaker 3: Anthony's harder. At least it was, but in the betting

408
00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:41,160
Speaker 3: game obviously things changed pretty quickly. That is yan oid

409
00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:45,960
Speaker 3: and they are taking on buyer levercouse of the team.

410
00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:49,360
Speaker 3: Definitely not near and dear to anybody's Hearts except for

411
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:51,800
Speaker 3: those who were rooting for them last year. Vin Oid

412
00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:54,000
Speaker 3: is plus three twenty and hought them in the final. Laiyboff,

413
00:21:54,040 --> 00:21:59,800
Speaker 3: that's all the matter. That definitely made up for all

414
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:04,240
Speaker 3: of ITID is plus three twenty at home Leverkusen. They

415
00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:08,080
Speaker 3: are the defended Bundesliga champs. They are odds on minus

416
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:09,919
Speaker 3: one thirty. On the road to draw here is plus

417
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:15,520
Speaker 3: two ninety. Obviously, plenty of change at fire Nord with

418
00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 3: Arnie Slot now managing Liverpool. I don't see much here.

419
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:24,280
Speaker 3: I thought we were going to get a fun number

420
00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:29,399
Speaker 3: on fire Nord. It's not fun enough getting there, though, Anthony.

421
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:34,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, so Prisky did a pretty good job at Prague.

422
00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 2: They were decent. I think fine Ord will be okay

423
00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:42,639
Speaker 2: medium term, but short term, like replacing a lot of

424
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:48,120
Speaker 2: players have struggled through the Airdavisi. I mean they their

425
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:52,160
Speaker 2: numbers are way down. They've taken like a clear step back. Overall.

426
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 2: Santy has not been as good as he normally would be.

427
00:22:57,560 --> 00:22:59,120
Speaker 2: I mean, he has a couple of goals, but even

428
00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:02,040
Speaker 2: his numbers have been kind of just eh. And he

429
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:04,879
Speaker 2: had a pretty summer for Mexico too, So it's been

430
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:06,359
Speaker 2: like a weird year for him. He's not in the

431
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 2: best of form and yeah, I mean the stats are

432
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 2: not great. They drew multiple matches to the Gronigen and

433
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:15,880
Speaker 2: team whose name I'm going to struggle to pronounce here,

434
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 2: but it's just spout of Rotterdam drew willelm like. They

435
00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 2: have taken a step back, but I think fine arts

436
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 2: attack will be good here. Tough, tough place to play

437
00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:31,640
Speaker 2: into Kai and Leverkusen's defense is flawed and they showed

438
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:33,879
Speaker 2: that again in the weekend against Hoffenheim. Hoffenheim got on

439
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 2: the board, had chances to equalize and then Leverkusen kind

440
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:39,879
Speaker 2: of put that game away. But you know, they've conceded

441
00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 2: at least one xt G every match, not counting the Pokale,

442
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:48,640
Speaker 2: So the three Bundesliga matches blew multiple leads. And so

443
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:53,399
Speaker 2: this Leverkusen team that with a comeback merchants of last season,

444
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 2: have actually been good at getting out and scoring first.

445
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:58,440
Speaker 2: They've they've taken leads in every match, multiple goal leads,

446
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:00,320
Speaker 2: but then they just opened the door and teams were

447
00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 2: able to play their way back into it. So I'm

448
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:04,480
Speaker 2: going to the tried and true hip to b square

449
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 2: both teams to score over two and a half minus one.

450
00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:11,359
Speaker 2: Twenty just would be shocked if this game wasn't like

451
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:12,200
Speaker 2: two to one three one.

452
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, it does feel I.

453
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:17,240
Speaker 2: Mean also, I mean, look, I'm not gonna say fine,

454
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:20,359
Speaker 2: Ord's out of it, but any value I'd hoped of

455
00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:25,399
Speaker 2: getting against Leverkusen, like the market's not there or this

456
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 2: price bj anything here.

457
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:31,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with Anthony. I like, over three, you can

458
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 1: get a minus one tennis right now. So Prisky's he

459
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 1: did do a good job at Sparta Prague. If you remember,

460
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:43,359
Speaker 1: they made it to the round of sixteen, they beat

461
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:48,200
Speaker 1: Galatassie over two legs and to get to the Europa

462
00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:53,160
Speaker 1: League round of sixteen where they were primarily sitting back

463
00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:55,720
Speaker 1: looking to play in transition, and then they went and

464
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 1: played Liverpool. Funny enough now that Arnie Slott is there

465
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:02,119
Speaker 1: and they got Ham eleven two. I don't aggregate over

466
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:04,840
Speaker 1: those two legs and what scored in both matches though

467
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:08,440
Speaker 1: scored in both matches, though, that's true. I remember this,

468
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:15,160
Speaker 1: that's right. But what they're just different Chrisky likes to do. Uh.

469
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:17,960
Speaker 1: It's basically just like a zonal man demand press, which

470
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,080
Speaker 1: I know is like contradicts yourself, right, Like you take

471
00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:21,639
Speaker 1: your zone, you pick up your man, and then everybody

472
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:24,440
Speaker 1: goes man and man from that point on. That's all

473
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:27,240
Speaker 1: well and good. Uh, But I'll still say that lever

474
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:28,840
Speaker 1: Couston is a top five build up team in the

475
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:32,560
Speaker 1: world with the way that they're able to overload basically

476
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:35,600
Speaker 1: every phase. And what the important thing about it is

477
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 1: what I think for Leverkusen as opposed to some other

478
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 1: teams is Leverkuson is quick. They move the ball so

479
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:44,439
Speaker 1: quickly from front to back. They will take chances, they

480
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:46,680
Speaker 1: will try to make direct passes to open up defenses,

481
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 1: whereas other teams like for example, you know, Southampton or

482
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:52,920
Speaker 1: Thiago Mont's Juventus, we'll get to it a little bit,

483
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:55,199
Speaker 1: are maybe a little bit more conservative and trying to

484
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 1: make those short passes. So but I will agree with

485
00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:01,919
Speaker 1: Anthony that lever Couston's defense because how aggressively they counterpress

486
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:03,480
Speaker 1: and how high of a line that they play and

487
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:05,720
Speaker 1: how many people they commit and build up, they leave

488
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 1: themselves vulnerable to transition attacks. And you know, they did

489
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 1: have a backup goalkeeper in this weekend as well or

490
00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:16,520
Speaker 1: the weekend before, excuse me, So yeah, I projected three

491
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:19,200
Speaker 1: and a half expected goals for this one for fine

492
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:21,879
Speaker 1: Ord on their purposes. If you look at the roster,

493
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:25,399
Speaker 1: like offensively, they didn't really lose anybody, but they lost

494
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:29,240
Speaker 1: Wifer to Brighton and to Leipsig, So those your two

495
00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 1: best defense, like cornerstones of your defense. And last season,

496
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 1: even with slot at the helm, they allowed eight to

497
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 1: expect goals during the group stage of the Champions League

498
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 1: two Athletico Madrid, Latsio and Celtic. So it's not like

499
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:42,960
Speaker 1: they were that good defensively. So yeah, over three minus

500
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 1: one ten I think skate price.

501
00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, so leverrakuzin away from home last year in Europe

502
00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 2: gave up one point three to mold Molda, one point

503
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 2: one Cara Bag and then.

504
00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:58,920
Speaker 1: One point the Quara bag was so stupid.

505
00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:01,719
Speaker 2: Swedish team Hacking put up one point three and then

506
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:04,639
Speaker 2: in the knockout Cara Bag. They rotated that game, but

507
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:07,240
Speaker 2: one point eight to Cara Bag, one point five to

508
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 2: west Ham, one point five to Roma. Like, they gave

509
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 2: up a lot of chances away from home in Europe,

510
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:14,680
Speaker 2: and I think that's gonna be a problem for them.

511
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:18,920
Speaker 3: Okay, bj On to Arsenal. If you are feeling pretty

512
00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:19,560
Speaker 3: good right now?

513
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:22,919
Speaker 2: This price is crazy North Derby.

514
00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:26,600
Speaker 3: I agree at Alanta in Arsenal, this one in Bergamo

515
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,479
Speaker 3: at Alanta plus two eighty five at home Arsenal minus

516
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:32,520
Speaker 3: one fifteen on the road to draw here is plus

517
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:35,360
Speaker 3: two to seventy five. Anthony going to how I think

518
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:36,560
Speaker 3: this price is crazy?

519
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:40,480
Speaker 2: So Liverpool played at Alanta in the spring in Bergamo

520
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:43,000
Speaker 2: and there was like a must win tax applied to it,

521
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 2: but they closed minus one sixty in that match. That

522
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:51,000
Speaker 2: was Liverpool who were priced cheaper than Arsenal at that

523
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:53,480
Speaker 2: point in the spring and still are price cheaper than Arsenal.

524
00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:56,160
Speaker 2: Arsenal has a higher market rating than Liverpool, So why

525
00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:58,639
Speaker 2: is Arsenal only minus one ten? I know that like

526
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:03,360
Speaker 2: Odegard out, but Rice will be back. The turnaround isn't

527
00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 2: too bad, Like it's kind of like Europa League Thursday.

528
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 2: So I don't really think, uh, this market makes any sense.

529
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:14,720
Speaker 2: Now the question is, and I oppose the BJA, do

530
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:17,280
Speaker 2: we think there's something to the fact that Arsenal wasn't

531
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 2: as good in Europe as they were in the prem

532
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:22,160
Speaker 2: last year Because I find it fascinating because I bet

533
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:24,400
Speaker 2: them win the whole damn thing and then bet them

534
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:27,560
Speaker 2: against Byron and got got cooked. We all got cooked

535
00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:30,200
Speaker 2: on that one. But do we think there's something to it?

536
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:33,720
Speaker 2: Because they got a weak group, they advanced relatively comfortably,

537
00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:37,359
Speaker 2: and then they played Porto and Byron and kind of

538
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:40,080
Speaker 2: stunk so and that was when they were They would

539
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 2: route everybody on the weekend and then they would go

540
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 2: to Europe and look kind of flat. You know, does

541
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 2: there's set piece of merchant in Europe? Come on?

542
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:56,800
Speaker 1: Why that is? I think that what you've seen now is,

543
00:28:56,880 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 1: you know, last year in the Premier League, everybody pressed

544
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 1: so like it just didn't matter. Everybody was pressing all

545
00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 1: the time and even trying to press Arsenals build up

546
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:09,600
Speaker 1: and nobody really would just do what essentially aston Villa did,

547
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 1: and like the second match of the season, which is

548
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 1: just play like six guys across the back line, just

549
00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 1: hunker in, not let allow Arsenal to receive the ball

550
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 1: in between the lines, double sokka and suddenly Arsenal just

551
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 1: has no outlet. And there's obviously, you know a part

552
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 1: of that where Arsenal was scoring a ton of goals

553
00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 1: off set pieces as well, and Portal did that kind

554
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:33,680
Speaker 1: of exact same thing. And we all know that Portal

555
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:35,640
Speaker 1: match where they just kept fouling Arsenal like over and

556
00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 1: over again, just slopped up the match and made it,

557
00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:41,560
Speaker 1: you know, really difficult for Arsenal to do anything. And

558
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 1: then Byron kind of went with the same approach. Right,

559
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 1: they didn't just go full like gas the brakes. Let's

560
00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 1: try to press Arsenal.

561
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:47,600
Speaker 2: Now.

562
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:50,440
Speaker 1: They set back and they and they dared Arsenal to

563
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 1: break them down, and I set it on our Premier

564
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 1: League podcast. But for teams that are gonna sit in

565
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 1: like aston Villa did, Arsenal's got to figure out a

566
00:29:57,320 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 1: way to break them down because they haven't been able

567
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:01,480
Speaker 1: to do it effectively. So I think that's a little

568
00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:05,000
Speaker 1: bit why you see Arsenal maybe struggle a little bit

569
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:07,560
Speaker 1: more in Europe and potentially in the Premier League.

570
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 3: I like, I like to draw quite a bit here.

571
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 3: Mm hmmm.

572
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:14,480
Speaker 2: I like spot Arsenal man.

573
00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 3: That's exactly That's what I'm saying. The city over the

574
00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:20,479
Speaker 3: put it, it's I can travel.

575
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:22,720
Speaker 1: That's what you're getting as attacks on this on the

576
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 1: spot here.

577
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I think rather than take Arsenal, I do

578
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 3: think I think that this thing is like a pretty

579
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:34,920
Speaker 3: clear and obvious situation for Arteta to get there, dig

580
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 3: your heels in and get through the match with as

581
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:43,200
Speaker 3: many players healthy and you know, unburdened, unburned by what

582
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 3: has been in this match. Maybe because this is uh,

583
00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 3: this is a situation where I just what's weighing with

584
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:55,400
Speaker 3: risk versus reward with City on deck is a point

585
00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 3: here I think is a really good result for Arsenal.

586
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 3: Plus like their team that plays a style that's conducive

587
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:07,960
Speaker 3: to betting draws when they are going up against at

588
00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:11,920
Speaker 3: least decent oppositions. So yeah, Arsenal's gonna want the ball.

589
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:13,800
Speaker 3: They're going to want to be in possession and control

590
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:15,520
Speaker 3: this thing and take this thing out of the game

591
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:18,960
Speaker 3: and the crowd. And but it's still such a tricky spot.

592
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:22,920
Speaker 3: So I think this thing feels pretty low event and

593
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 3: I think that Arteta and Arsenal would sign up for that,

594
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 3: like a one to one, get home and get be

595
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 3: fresh for City BJ. So yeah, I like the draw

596
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 3: here plus two five.

597
00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:37,040
Speaker 1: I mean I agree, just I mean, listen, I have

598
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 1: Arsenal projected and minus one forty six here, so minus

599
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:42,360
Speaker 1: one ten is short. No hodguard obviously, and we saw

600
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:45,520
Speaker 1: how much his injury moved the market against Tottenham, it

601
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 1: was it twenty five to thirty cents. It seemed like

602
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:50,240
Speaker 1: I think it moved because we moved from rice like

603
00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:52,200
Speaker 1: minus one ten to even money and then Arsenal was

604
00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:57,960
Speaker 1: plus one thirty. So but just as also come back too.

605
00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 1: But yeah, yeah, exactly. This is also not a full

606
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 1: strength a Loto squad, not the one that you saw

607
00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 1: in the Europa League finals. Kamaka is injured, Coop Miners

608
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:10,160
Speaker 1: is now at Juventus. That a lot of this is

609
00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 1: down to their starting center backs, so not a great

610
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:18,800
Speaker 1: situation for them. Either can't defend, cannot defend. We saw

611
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 1: the way that they play is man demand, high pressing,

612
00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 1: and well Arsenal is a little bit shaky in terms

613
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:28,640
Speaker 1: of build up and you saw that today against Tottenham.

614
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:31,360
Speaker 1: That would be the way that Alana wins this match

615
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 1: is they forced couple of high turnovers, get ea couple

616
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:39,120
Speaker 1: golden opportunities. But if Arsenal is able to play through them,

617
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:41,840
Speaker 1: I mean, that's not the way to play Arsenal. You

618
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:44,680
Speaker 1: have to sit back. So I'm and I'm not sure

619
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:45,480
Speaker 1: that a lot I can do that.

620
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:48,680
Speaker 2: I don't know. I'm done. I'm done. Just saying that

621
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 2: a lot of can't They did it to Liverpool, they

622
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 2: did it to Lerakusen Arsenal. They should play zi Chenko.

623
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:57,400
Speaker 2: I think they would be a It would behoove them

624
00:32:57,400 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 2: to play him, even though they don't like him as much,

625
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:03,400
Speaker 2: because yeah, the midfield stinks right now with Arsenal, even

626
00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 2: with Odegard being in there or Rice being in there like,

627
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:09,680
Speaker 2: that's not gonna help their build up necessarily. So I

628
00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:12,440
Speaker 2: still think there's major questions about about the Arsenal midfield

629
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 2: right now slash build up, and that includes the fullbacks

630
00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:18,120
Speaker 2: and how they like to use them in possession because

631
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:21,240
Speaker 2: Timber is not Zinjenko when it comes to passing. He's

632
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:23,320
Speaker 2: better other things, but he's not not as good.

633
00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 1: He's versatile, that's why they like him.

634
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:29,160
Speaker 3: That's a Thursday kickoff three pm Eastern Time. Like I

635
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:33,320
Speaker 3: said at the top, we're dealing with a busy week

636
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 3: of soccer here Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, six matches a piece.

637
00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:39,720
Speaker 1: They're only doing.

638
00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:42,920
Speaker 3: That before the first week of the Champions League League

639
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:46,479
Speaker 3: phase maybe the last one too, but so don't get

640
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:48,960
Speaker 3: used to it. All right. That brings us to another

641
00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:51,840
Speaker 3: Thursday kickoff between at let It Go Madrid team of

642
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 3: the podcast against Red Bull Leipsig, another team of the podcast.

643
00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 3: Madrid is minus one twenty five at home, Pipsig traveling

644
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 3: at plus three ten. The draw is plus two eighty five.

645
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:08,560
Speaker 3: I got nothing here. It's a fun contrast of just

646
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:12,200
Speaker 3: soccer philosophies going at it and the way these two

647
00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:16,279
Speaker 3: clubs go about things is quite different. But I would

648
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:19,839
Speaker 3: lean towards the underdog here. I actually maybe I'll get there.

649
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:25,000
Speaker 3: Anthony on Leipzig, it just seems a little a little

650
00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:26,680
Speaker 3: too steep on at Letty.

651
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:29,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I keep betting this team and I don't know why,

652
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:32,800
Speaker 2: because they haven't had good metrics at any point. Leipsig

653
00:34:32,840 --> 00:34:33,000
Speaker 2: that is.

654
00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:33,600
Speaker 4: Uh.

655
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:39,480
Speaker 2: They were a disaster at home against Union Berlin on Saturday,

656
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:43,480
Speaker 2: needed a pen to win the to create a big

657
00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:44,759
Speaker 2: chance and didn't score it.

658
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 1: Uh.

659
00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:47,239
Speaker 2: They were pretty bad against Leverkus and came back to

660
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 2: win it. They're not getting any market respect here. I

661
00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:53,839
Speaker 2: do think that Letty's better at home, so I guess

662
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:57,239
Speaker 2: maybe I'm kind of It depends on how you how

663
00:34:57,280 --> 00:35:00,200
Speaker 2: you adjust for for Leipsig because they have lo lost

664
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 2: some guys and the attack is not looking great. But

665
00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:05,880
Speaker 2: we've also seen this from Rosa teams before, where they

666
00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 2: kind of start a little sluggish, it's not quite firing,

667
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:10,279
Speaker 2: and then all of a sudden you look up and

668
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:13,040
Speaker 2: they're putting up these bonkers numbers. Same thing happened last year.

669
00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:16,760
Speaker 3: So in January there they they've won eleven of twelve

670
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:19,360
Speaker 3: and it's it's crazy. How did they get to be

671
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:20,640
Speaker 3: second in the Bundesliga.

672
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, because I mean I'm looking at it now, Like

673
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:25,400
Speaker 2: first five matches last year they had a negative expected

674
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 2: goal difference, but they won almost all of them. Now

675
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 2: this year it's been the opposite or sorry, this year

676
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 2: has been the same, where like the extually difference is

677
00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:36,040
Speaker 2: roughly the same and they're not quite getting the results.

678
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:39,440
Speaker 2: But I think I'm gonna pass and I'm gonna learn

679
00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:41,640
Speaker 2: a lot about leipsiging this matchup. I do think.

680
00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:44,919
Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna bet them, Yeah one more time.

681
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:48,480
Speaker 1: Yeah you have probably you haven't been many the season,

682
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:51,799
Speaker 1: so this will be my first loss on them. I

683
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 1: don't really think. I mean, they lost Dannie Olmo and

684
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 1: simecon Over over the summer. I know almost a you know,

685
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:02,200
Speaker 1: a pretty big life, but is anybody else really that

686
00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:04,719
Speaker 1: big of a loss like they get gearturued in from

687
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 1: fine Or, which is gives them a lot more versatility

688
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 1: at right back. The midfield is all still there. They

689
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:14,360
Speaker 1: still they retain shabby Simones, still have a Penda and

690
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:17,360
Speaker 1: chessco up top. Like this is still a really good

691
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:20,640
Speaker 1: and dangerous team. Now, Athletico has been really good to

692
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 1: start the season. So I think this is why you're

693
00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:26,440
Speaker 1: seeing this line as it is, where Athletico hasn't even conceded.

694
00:36:26,440 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 1: They've only conceded one goal and nobody's created over one

695
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:32,480
Speaker 1: expected goal against them. Whereas you know, life cig like

696
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:37,000
Speaker 1: Anthony said, have just been kind of poor. Yeah, interesting

697
00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 1: to see here. Who controls more possession? You know, Athletico

698
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:42,400
Speaker 1: has been playing a little bit differently than they have

699
00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:44,359
Speaker 1: in years. Pass It's not just you know four four

700
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 1: two like let's just you know, look to sit back

701
00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:50,239
Speaker 1: and win matches one nothing. They've been trying more to

702
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:52,640
Speaker 1: build out of the back, create a more possession down

703
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:55,600
Speaker 1: in style, trying to control matches more. Obviously they have

704
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:58,560
Speaker 1: it in their back pocket to you know, play terrorism ball.

705
00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:02,439
Speaker 1: But I Leipzig has shown you I know they've played bad,

706
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 1: I know, but what they show with Openda and Chesco

707
00:37:05,239 --> 00:37:07,759
Speaker 1: is like they have that gear where if they can

708
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:09,600
Speaker 1: just pick teams off from a mid block, they can

709
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:12,319
Speaker 1: hit you transitionally so hard and so quickly. And I

710
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 1: think that they their pace can give Athletico a lot

711
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:18,480
Speaker 1: of problems here. So I only projected Athletico at plus

712
00:37:18,560 --> 00:37:20,839
Speaker 1: one twenty five. You know, if you look at you know,

713
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:25,160
Speaker 1: La Liga and the Bundesliga from UAFA coefficient standpoints, aren't

714
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:28,440
Speaker 1: that whole different of leagues now, you know, it's kind

715
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:31,080
Speaker 1: of just England's up at the top, and then Germany,

716
00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 1: Italy and Spain are all kind of in the same

717
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:36,799
Speaker 1: tier together. I mean, Leipzig had better metrics than the

718
00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:39,880
Speaker 1: Bundesliga than Athletico did and La Liga last year, so

719
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:44,120
Speaker 1: I only have Athletico plus one twenty five, So I

720
00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:46,680
Speaker 1: like Leipzig plus a half at even money.

721
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 3: Okay, before we get to a quick rapid fire section,

722
00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:54,959
Speaker 3: let's talk Monico and Barcelona. This one in France, where

723
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:57,480
Speaker 3: Monico is plus three ten, Barcelona might just want thirty.

724
00:37:57,560 --> 00:38:03,560
Speaker 3: The draw is plus three three hundred Barcelona under Hansei

725
00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:09,719
Speaker 3: flick off and running uh in La Liga bj mm hmm,

726
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:13,319
Speaker 3: it's uh, it feels it still feels weird to me.

727
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:15,839
Speaker 3: That he's there, but whatever that's by the bye five

728
00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:19,400
Speaker 3: five and oh five wins from five matches, seventeen scored,

729
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:26,359
Speaker 3: four uh, conceded, and they're underlying metrics kind of tell

730
00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:31,719
Speaker 3: us that that's not all that off. So you just

731
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:33,960
Speaker 3: want to step in front of the strain. Yeah, what's

732
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:34,480
Speaker 3: going on here?

733
00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:38,239
Speaker 1: So here's the thing. I did a deep dive on

734
00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:42,320
Speaker 1: Barcelona this week was just really like digging into Hansei

735
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:44,920
Speaker 1: Flick's tactics of what he's been doing so far. Uh.

736
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:49,719
Speaker 1: It's fascinating uh to me because essentially what he's doing

737
00:38:49,719 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 1: now he's got Danny Almo in the squad is he's

738
00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 1: basically building up in like a two one two five

739
00:38:56,239 --> 00:38:59,759
Speaker 1: where he's able to at any point he when he

740
00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:03,359
Speaker 1: really wants to overload a team's midfield and just play

741
00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:08,239
Speaker 1: passes right through them and score like he will invert Rafina,

742
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:10,960
Speaker 1: who had for a while before Almo came in, was

743
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 1: playing as like the number ten instead of a winger.

744
00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:14,759
Speaker 1: And now he hasn't playing out left, but when it's

745
00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:16,840
Speaker 1: in possession, he can drop in the middle of Lewandowski

746
00:39:16,880 --> 00:39:20,400
Speaker 1: can drop deeper and suddenly you always have five guys

747
00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:23,680
Speaker 1: around the ball and you can also hurt youa mall

748
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 1: in there, like it's just it's crazy. So I think

749
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:30,560
Speaker 1: that's why you see their offensive numbers have been so high,

750
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 1: is that just every team and no team really doesn't

751
00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:36,120
Speaker 1: matter your defensive shape there, you're always going to get

752
00:39:36,120 --> 00:39:39,399
Speaker 1: overloaded in the middle. So and when Barcelona is able

753
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:42,239
Speaker 1: to move Lewandowski into certain positions and even Raffenian for

754
00:39:42,320 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 1: that matter, they can pull center backs out of position.

755
00:39:44,640 --> 00:39:46,920
Speaker 1: And the biggest thing with Flick as opposed to previous

756
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:49,440
Speaker 1: Barcelona managers, because we've had a lot of Barcelona managers

757
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:51,640
Speaker 1: from the same mold of just like Tiki Taki, like

758
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 1: short passes, build out, Flick wants them to play direct

759
00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:57,280
Speaker 1: when they can, like he wants them to make aggressive

760
00:39:57,320 --> 00:40:00,840
Speaker 1: line breaking passes, passes in behind, and that is something

761
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 1: that Barcelona hasn't had, that type of gear where it's

762
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:05,600
Speaker 1: just like we will take those chances as opposed to

763
00:40:05,640 --> 00:40:10,319
Speaker 1: just controlling possession. But yep, but we've known this with

764
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 1: Hansei Flick for a long time is that his defenses

765
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:15,919
Speaker 1: are atrocious and they're way too aggressive, and they push

766
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:19,719
Speaker 1: their fullback so high that one pass and you're through

767
00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:23,960
Speaker 1: and you're and you can score on them. Monaco is

768
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 1: a team that primarily does rely on that exact same thing,

769
00:40:27,560 --> 00:40:31,480
Speaker 1: which is through balls, aggressive progressive passes. They have good

770
00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:38,000
Speaker 1: transition strikers in Bolo and Baligan, and Audi Hooter wants

771
00:40:38,000 --> 00:40:40,239
Speaker 1: his team to be just as aggressive in possession as

772
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:42,879
Speaker 1: Flick does. I mean out of possession, they're gonna press.

773
00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:44,279
Speaker 1: They have the most tigh turn rovers in league on

774
00:40:44,360 --> 00:40:48,160
Speaker 1: last season, and I'll give you this that Anthony. I

775
00:40:48,160 --> 00:40:50,600
Speaker 1: was looking this up. I really wanted to find a

776
00:40:50,640 --> 00:40:52,759
Speaker 1: stack because you know, Audi Hooter was at glod Box

777
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:54,920
Speaker 1: for a year and I was really hoping that I

778
00:40:54,920 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 1: could find a crossover between him, like beating hanse Flick

779
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:03,759
Speaker 1: at Byron. But unfortunately hanse Flick left before Huter went there.

780
00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 1: Buthuter did face off against honsey Flick during the pandemic

781
00:41:07,600 --> 00:41:11,480
Speaker 1: season Frankfurt versus Byron. Frankfurt won that match to one

782
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:15,239
Speaker 1: three point six total expectacles thirty four shots taken in

783
00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:17,440
Speaker 1: the match. I like the over here. I like over

784
00:41:17,480 --> 00:41:18,319
Speaker 1: three plus one ten.

785
00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:18,760
Speaker 2: Yeah.

786
00:41:18,840 --> 00:41:21,239
Speaker 1: I think the overs with Barcelona are too low right now,

787
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:23,400
Speaker 1: and I think they're pricing in the fact of what

788
00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:26,839
Speaker 1: Barcelona's defense was last year. Under Shavi, which how much

789
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:30,120
Speaker 1: they controlled possession. It's a much different team. It's a

790
00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:32,399
Speaker 1: much better offensive team and a much worse defensive team.

791
00:41:32,440 --> 00:41:34,640
Speaker 1: So I think the overs you'll start to see them

792
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:36,799
Speaker 1: get higher and higher and higher, and we'll get to

793
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:39,560
Speaker 1: a point where it's just like you know, Hanse flicks

794
00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:43,240
Speaker 1: Byron's totals in the Bundesliga, but for now they're too low.

795
00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:45,799
Speaker 1: I like over three goals at plus one ten.

796
00:41:46,440 --> 00:41:50,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean they're cooking. I mean, this team's underline

797
00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:54,320
Speaker 2: numbers are fun. And Lennon at all is taking the leap,

798
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:56,359
Speaker 2: and not that he didn't already this summer, but like

799
00:41:57,040 --> 00:42:01,239
Speaker 2: scores twice today, forrestis already rafenas On believable. Like the

800
00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:03,840
Speaker 2: team is so well built to play flickball compared to

801
00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:07,200
Speaker 2: the past, and that's so much more exciting to watch too.

802
00:42:07,680 --> 00:42:10,319
Speaker 2: I watched a good bit of their Gerona win, so

803
00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:12,719
Speaker 2: and then Almo comes in and he's been getting like

804
00:42:13,320 --> 00:42:16,839
Speaker 2: great shot numbers from the midfield. So I have no

805
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:21,040
Speaker 2: idea how Monico defends this team, no idea. And they

806
00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:24,440
Speaker 2: and you know Real Madrid played nobody Bars has played

807
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:26,719
Speaker 2: some team like they went to They went to Vacano,

808
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:30,960
Speaker 2: who's solid, beat them comfortably. They went to Uh they

809
00:42:30,960 --> 00:42:34,239
Speaker 2: beat Athletic Club at home three point two. Actually at Valencia,

810
00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:37,320
Speaker 2: dominate Gerona away from home, who's not a bad team,

811
00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 2: even though we don't like the match up, like those

812
00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:40,440
Speaker 2: are real teams.

813
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:40,759
Speaker 3: Uh.

814
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:42,279
Speaker 2: And then they, of course they put seven on Via

815
00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:44,000
Speaker 2: de lead like it's just a truck right now.

816
00:42:44,600 --> 00:42:44,719
Speaker 3: Uh.

817
00:42:45,280 --> 00:42:47,480
Speaker 2: I know we're gonna talk about Monicco more later. I

818
00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:49,560
Speaker 2: would be very surprised.

819
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:52,879
Speaker 3: Let's just say, all right, well, before we do that,

820
00:42:53,239 --> 00:42:56,920
Speaker 3: let's quickly move on to some rapid fire through some

821
00:42:57,000 --> 00:43:01,120
Speaker 3: other matches. I have a a different underdog that I'm

822
00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:04,560
Speaker 3: going to give out to start this Champions League season

823
00:43:04,560 --> 00:43:07,560
Speaker 3: off with a bang. So I'm not going to throw

824
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:11,440
Speaker 3: Red Star Belgrade into the underdog pilight, but I have

825
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:14,960
Speaker 3: some interest in them. At three to one against Benfica,

826
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:18,520
Speaker 3: that's a tough trip, I am. That's not an easy

827
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:21,480
Speaker 3: trip for a team that's not you know, we're not

828
00:43:21,560 --> 00:43:24,400
Speaker 3: talking about one of the elite of the competition going

829
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:27,120
Speaker 3: to Belgrade. We're not talking about one of like the

830
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:29,800
Speaker 3: second or third tier teams going over. This is a

831
00:43:30,280 --> 00:43:33,319
Speaker 3: team that we're all expecting to fight for one of

832
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:37,600
Speaker 3: those you know, seventeen to sixteen to twenty four spots.

833
00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:41,879
Speaker 3: So I think this is a situation with a live

834
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:45,040
Speaker 3: underdog at home BJ. What about you? Anything else you

835
00:43:45,080 --> 00:43:45,640
Speaker 3: want to touch on?

836
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:47,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I got three other bets here. I'll just run

837
00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:50,960
Speaker 1: through quickly. Uventus PSV under two and a half at

838
00:43:50,960 --> 00:43:53,759
Speaker 1: plus one fifteen. You should just.

839
00:43:53,680 --> 00:43:56,400
Speaker 3: Play the Neil Nilson, just play the.

840
00:43:56,080 --> 00:43:59,879
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say people, I know that I know that

841
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:02,840
Speaker 1: a Leegry is not there anymore. I know that terrorism

842
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:06,880
Speaker 1: ball is gone, right, but really is it? Because I know,

843
00:44:08,880 --> 00:44:12,799
Speaker 1: I know all the tacticos will just like you know,

844
00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:15,680
Speaker 1: love the love themselves. Some Thiago Mata. They can't do

845
00:44:15,760 --> 00:44:17,920
Speaker 1: anything in the final third. Watch his Bologney teams from

846
00:44:18,000 --> 00:44:20,239
Speaker 1: last year. They make up, you know, they obviously, you know,

847
00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:22,360
Speaker 1: overload every phase and make a couple a lot of

848
00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 1: fun you know, combination passes. But they were terrible offensively,

849
00:44:25,920 --> 00:44:28,480
Speaker 1: like they were a mid tier SERI team offensively, and

850
00:44:28,520 --> 00:44:30,840
Speaker 1: the same applies to the event is so far this season.

851
00:44:31,239 --> 00:44:34,200
Speaker 1: I mean, they just put up point seven against Iimpoli

852
00:44:34,239 --> 00:44:37,000
Speaker 1: on the road this weekend. I mean, this is not

853
00:44:37,120 --> 00:44:40,200
Speaker 1: a very good offensive team, but the defense remains the

854
00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:43,080
Speaker 1: exact same that it was under a leg like they are,

855
00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:46,719
Speaker 1: it's even better. Yeah, so we shouldn't be setting under

856
00:44:46,719 --> 00:44:48,399
Speaker 1: two and a halfs at plus money. I don't think

857
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:50,319
Speaker 1: PSB is going to come out like balls the wall

858
00:44:50,360 --> 00:44:52,799
Speaker 1: and try and press them right away. Maybe they will

859
00:44:52,800 --> 00:44:56,279
Speaker 1: wear Peter bos is a lunatic, but I mean right

860
00:44:56,280 --> 00:44:58,000
Speaker 1: out of the gates in the Champions League last year

861
00:44:58,000 --> 00:44:59,880
Speaker 1: they only put a path and expect goganst Arsenal.

862
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:01,920
Speaker 3: So yeah, go ahead.

863
00:45:02,000 --> 00:45:05,800
Speaker 2: Psb's attack did not scale up. Well, no, it's at all,

864
00:45:06,120 --> 00:45:08,279
Speaker 2: and they're kind of just limited. And I know we

865
00:45:08,320 --> 00:45:10,560
Speaker 2: bet them against Dortmund and that I mean Dortman's way

866
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:13,759
Speaker 2: worse defensively, they couldn'tet, they couldn't get through against them.

867
00:45:13,960 --> 00:45:15,640
Speaker 2: Yeah you've if you want to get some good CLV

868
00:45:15,719 --> 00:45:19,120
Speaker 2: bet youve because the market loves them. Every week they

869
00:45:19,360 --> 00:45:21,000
Speaker 2: they take money. They took money. I think they closed

870
00:45:21,040 --> 00:45:23,520
Speaker 2: minus one sixty five. I almost came back and bet

871
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:27,400
Speaker 2: Pulley plus one uh and got cooked there. But yeah, uh,

872
00:45:28,400 --> 00:45:30,680
Speaker 2: the attack will take some time. They're gonna round into

873
00:45:30,680 --> 00:45:33,799
Speaker 2: form and come January, BJ betting them at thirty to

874
00:45:33,800 --> 00:45:35,719
Speaker 2: one to win the whole damn thing. Because nobody can

875
00:45:35,760 --> 00:45:37,240
Speaker 2: score well.

876
00:45:37,560 --> 00:45:39,040
Speaker 1: If you want to read more about events, so you

877
00:45:39,040 --> 00:45:40,799
Speaker 1: can read my preview for this match in the Action

878
00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:43,200
Speaker 1: org dot com. You can also read my preview for

879
00:45:44,320 --> 00:45:48,560
Speaker 1: Young Boys sanasen Villa. Like over three, you can actually

880
00:45:48,600 --> 00:45:50,800
Speaker 1: get that at minus one twenty right now. I mentioned

881
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:54,120
Speaker 1: Young Boys on our preview pod. Horrible start of the season,

882
00:45:54,120 --> 00:45:58,120
Speaker 1: Switzerland conceding north of one point eight expectacles for ninety minutes.

883
00:45:59,080 --> 00:46:02,960
Speaker 1: You saw the type of team that aston Villa struggled

884
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:05,759
Speaker 1: against Michael on the weekend. Defensively, it's a team that

885
00:46:05,760 --> 00:46:08,480
Speaker 1: can play in transition. They want to play their high line.

886
00:46:08,560 --> 00:46:09,960
Speaker 1: If you get in behind it, you can create a

887
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:12,279
Speaker 1: lot of chances. That's exactly what Young Boys likes to do.

888
00:46:12,560 --> 00:46:14,759
Speaker 1: And the thing about aston Villa is they want to

889
00:46:14,760 --> 00:46:17,040
Speaker 1: play compact and they want to play narrow. They'll give

890
00:46:17,080 --> 00:46:19,839
Speaker 1: you the wide areas well. Young Boys they just want

891
00:46:19,880 --> 00:46:21,840
Speaker 1: to get into the wide areas and then swing balls

892
00:46:21,840 --> 00:46:24,279
Speaker 1: in and swing crosses in so they have chances on

893
00:46:24,280 --> 00:46:26,600
Speaker 1: the break. But they're a horrible defensive team. So like

894
00:46:26,680 --> 00:46:30,879
Speaker 1: over three there and finally Bologna the agamass Old team

895
00:46:30,920 --> 00:46:35,640
Speaker 1: minus one fifteen at home against Shocktar not the biggest

896
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:41,600
Speaker 1: fan of Vincenzo Italiano. But here's what I will say. Yeah, no,

897
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:43,799
Speaker 1: I hated. I hated his Fiorentina teams.

898
00:46:43,880 --> 00:46:46,919
Speaker 2: Last year. We were a podcast two years ago.

899
00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:49,160
Speaker 1: Two years ago they were last year. Last year we.

900
00:46:49,080 --> 00:46:51,960
Speaker 2: Were that they were lucky and they beat us a

901
00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:52,439
Speaker 2: couple of times.

902
00:46:52,520 --> 00:46:52,840
Speaker 3: Yeah.

903
00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:56,000
Speaker 1: Here, here's a stat that I want to give you

904
00:46:56,000 --> 00:46:58,400
Speaker 1: about Shaktar, because their team's not any better than it

905
00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:03,480
Speaker 1: was last year. It's it's actually worse. The last three seasons,

906
00:47:03,480 --> 00:47:07,320
Speaker 1: Shaktar have played eleven matches away from home in Europe.

907
00:47:07,880 --> 00:47:11,520
Speaker 1: They have a negative twelve expected goal differential and they

908
00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:14,239
Speaker 1: have only won the expected goals battle once and it

909
00:47:14,280 --> 00:47:17,759
Speaker 1: was against Antwerp last season. I think Bologna is fine

910
00:47:17,800 --> 00:47:19,680
Speaker 1: right now. Obviously they lost to their best players and

911
00:47:19,719 --> 00:47:24,520
Speaker 1: their manager, but they've been doing okay in Syria. So

912
00:47:24,600 --> 00:47:26,000
Speaker 1: for us, I think this price is a little too

913
00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:29,880
Speaker 1: short given how bad this Shocktar team has been for

914
00:47:29,920 --> 00:47:31,480
Speaker 1: so long away from home in Europe.

915
00:47:32,040 --> 00:47:34,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with BJ. I also took the underplus

916
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:38,640
Speaker 2: money on the U A PSB game. There are three

917
00:47:38,640 --> 00:47:41,160
Speaker 2: goals go in, I'll tip my cap. That's kind of

918
00:47:41,160 --> 00:47:43,279
Speaker 2: where I'm at with uve at this point, because I

919
00:47:43,320 --> 00:47:44,920
Speaker 2: don't really think PSB has a ton of passes.

920
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:47,040
Speaker 1: There's going to have to be a penalty in there

921
00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:47,799
Speaker 1: for you to get to three.

922
00:47:47,840 --> 00:47:51,400
Speaker 2: I think probably Bruges total is too low and a

923
00:47:51,400 --> 00:47:53,920
Speaker 2: half minus one thirty to the over. Don't mind if

924
00:47:53,920 --> 00:47:58,799
Speaker 2: I do. Bruges defensively have been bad in Belgium, giving

925
00:47:58,880 --> 00:48:02,440
Speaker 2: up over one x geper Matt in Belgium. U Dortmund

926
00:48:02,480 --> 00:48:07,080
Speaker 2: have been bad in Germany again. Played a wide open

927
00:48:07,120 --> 00:48:10,319
Speaker 2: thriller with Hide and him on Friday and giving up

928
00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 2: the same thing. It's the same doormand team man. Can

929
00:48:12,680 --> 00:48:13,239
Speaker 2: they do it again?

930
00:48:15,160 --> 00:48:17,280
Speaker 1: How do we feel about it? Sahen? Right now?

931
00:48:17,840 --> 00:48:18,040
Speaker 4: Uh?

932
00:48:18,680 --> 00:48:20,000
Speaker 2: Same as tur Ball?

933
00:48:20,160 --> 00:48:21,319
Speaker 1: Okay, and that's not good.

934
00:48:21,360 --> 00:48:23,160
Speaker 2: I'm not saying it. I'm not seeing a ton of

935
00:48:23,200 --> 00:48:25,360
Speaker 2: differences and watching it goes out.

936
00:48:25,200 --> 00:48:28,520
Speaker 1: There be like he was going to revolutionize Dortmund so far,

937
00:48:28,520 --> 00:48:29,440
Speaker 1: Agust that hasn't happened.

938
00:48:30,280 --> 00:48:32,839
Speaker 2: Isn't that always true of everybody who takes the Dortmund job. Yeah,

939
00:48:32,880 --> 00:48:35,720
Speaker 2: I know it's a requirement. We're going to revolutionize the sport.

940
00:48:36,840 --> 00:48:40,000
Speaker 2: Her though, that guy's revolutionizing the sport. Oh yeah he is,

941
00:48:40,560 --> 00:48:44,960
Speaker 2: Brighton can't even dis.

942
00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:46,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, uh he is? And then I tossed up the

943
00:48:47,600 --> 00:48:51,200
Speaker 3: nil nil that I didn't even consider over the weekend.

944
00:48:51,320 --> 00:48:54,920
Speaker 3: So pretty pretty upsetting stuff. Okay, that brings us to

945
00:48:55,120 --> 00:48:57,840
Speaker 3: our three leg underdog parlay. This thing's coming out at

946
00:48:57,880 --> 00:49:01,680
Speaker 3: one hundred and thirty seven to one. It's fun because

947
00:49:01,680 --> 00:49:05,279
Speaker 3: Anthony is sounds like he's vehemently against two of the

948
00:49:05,320 --> 00:49:09,440
Speaker 3: three legs, so you can you can go first, Anthony, Well.

949
00:49:09,360 --> 00:49:12,399
Speaker 2: Oh am, I I'm on Bruges plus two sixty, baby, yeah,

950
00:49:12,400 --> 00:49:14,719
Speaker 2: we can all get behind that one. I look, I mean, look,

951
00:49:14,800 --> 00:49:17,080
Speaker 2: Dortmund wrote this pixie dust thing. If you listen to

952
00:49:17,120 --> 00:49:19,120
Speaker 2: this podcast before this season, you know that we're not

953
00:49:19,440 --> 00:49:22,839
Speaker 2: too fond of this Dortmund team. And I could read

954
00:49:22,880 --> 00:49:25,120
Speaker 2: off all the stats, but it was historic, and how

955
00:49:25,160 --> 00:49:28,439
Speaker 2: much they overperformed offensively, how many teams hit the post

956
00:49:28,440 --> 00:49:30,600
Speaker 2: against them, how Gregor coleb became the best goal in

957
00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:32,960
Speaker 2: the world for three months. All these things happened, and

958
00:49:33,040 --> 00:49:35,360
Speaker 2: Dortmuann I think is a little inflated here on the

959
00:49:35,440 --> 00:49:37,799
Speaker 2: road against Bruges. And I don't think Bruce can defend either.

960
00:49:37,800 --> 00:49:41,000
Speaker 2: But this game could just be chaotic, and thus I

961
00:49:41,040 --> 00:49:45,279
Speaker 2: will take Bruges in Bruges, So a fairy tale Town

962
00:49:45,360 --> 00:49:48,920
Speaker 2: plus two sixty fairy Tale. Leeboff got that reference.

963
00:49:49,000 --> 00:49:53,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, it is a great movie coming out in Iowa

964
00:49:53,960 --> 00:49:57,719
Speaker 3: in a couple of years to bj get ready for it.

965
00:49:59,280 --> 00:50:02,320
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, there they're they're they're gonna get there eventually.

966
00:50:02,560 --> 00:50:10,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, they'll get there first. Yeah, exactly. One of the things.

967
00:50:10,440 --> 00:50:13,760
Speaker 2: I'll get some inside baseball. This podcast is funny sometimes

968
00:50:13,760 --> 00:50:18,120
Speaker 2: because so we record on riverside and Bjay's audio will

969
00:50:18,160 --> 00:50:21,080
Speaker 2: cut out at various points while he's in the middle

970
00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:24,160
Speaker 2: of talking about a game, and so we don't know

971
00:50:24,160 --> 00:50:26,960
Speaker 2: what he's saying. It's still being recorded. But Leeboff and

972
00:50:27,040 --> 00:50:29,440
Speaker 2: I will just look at each other and we're like, okay,

973
00:50:29,520 --> 00:50:31,040
Speaker 2: is it bad enough where we have to say something?

974
00:50:31,040 --> 00:50:33,319
Speaker 2: And then usually it's not. We kind of just all right,

975
00:50:33,360 --> 00:50:35,640
Speaker 2: he's back, We're good again. Uh. So it's really funny

976
00:50:35,680 --> 00:50:38,080
Speaker 2: when that happens, because Leeboff and I just shoot looks

977
00:50:38,080 --> 00:50:40,680
Speaker 2: at each other like hmm, should we say something here?

978
00:50:41,520 --> 00:50:43,640
Speaker 3: But then we pick it usually picks up at like

979
00:50:43,680 --> 00:50:47,400
Speaker 3: a perfect the perfect word right, like ah, yes, he

980
00:50:47,520 --> 00:50:49,680
Speaker 3: takes it out. Yeah.

981
00:50:50,440 --> 00:50:50,560
Speaker 4: Uh.

982
00:50:50,640 --> 00:50:55,120
Speaker 3: And I'm talking about stut Gart seven fifty, how Madrid

983
00:50:55,600 --> 00:50:59,920
Speaker 3: off the Stunner. Someone's going down it happens. Uh, I

984
00:51:00,040 --> 00:51:03,000
Speaker 3: feel it to my bones. I love this real Madrid team,

985
00:51:03,040 --> 00:51:04,720
Speaker 3: but they're not going to be at their best until

986
00:51:04,800 --> 00:51:07,600
Speaker 3: things really like that we talked about City like letting

987
00:51:07,640 --> 00:51:10,080
Speaker 3: up goals like we want. Madrid is the type of

988
00:51:10,080 --> 00:51:12,520
Speaker 3: team and Ancelotti like will even show up for this match.

989
00:51:12,560 --> 00:51:14,120
Speaker 3: I don't know, he might send.

990
00:51:14,000 --> 00:51:15,720
Speaker 2: His son again.

991
00:51:15,840 --> 00:51:19,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, so he says, wake me up when we're

992
00:51:19,920 --> 00:51:25,680
Speaker 3: in a must win spot in the Balkans or something. Yes,

993
00:51:25,760 --> 00:51:29,399
Speaker 3: Duke ard for me and bj you're fading another lelega team.

994
00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:32,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll just you know, like to steal your phrase,

995
00:51:32,560 --> 00:51:35,680
Speaker 1: Michael step in front of the train. Monaco plus three

996
00:51:35,760 --> 00:51:39,759
Speaker 1: fifty at home against Barcelona. To kind of go along

997
00:51:39,760 --> 00:51:42,920
Speaker 1: with what I was saying before, is that Barcelona amazing

998
00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:46,880
Speaker 1: in possession, incredibly difficult to defend, almost impossible defend at this point,

999
00:51:48,040 --> 00:51:51,160
Speaker 1: but they leave themselves very open defensively. And this is

1000
00:51:51,280 --> 00:51:53,880
Speaker 1: I would say the best team that they have faced

1001
00:51:53,920 --> 00:51:57,920
Speaker 1: that can play through balls in transition behind their defense

1002
00:51:58,000 --> 00:52:01,040
Speaker 1: and really cause problems. It's also not great spot of Barcelona.

1003
00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:04,759
Speaker 1: This will be their second third straight away matches if

1004
00:52:04,760 --> 00:52:06,760
Speaker 1: they went away to Girona. Now they're going to Monaco

1005
00:52:06,760 --> 00:52:08,240
Speaker 1: and then they go to vi Rial on the weekend.

1006
00:52:08,760 --> 00:52:11,120
Speaker 1: So you know, I think we're just getting a little

1007
00:52:11,120 --> 00:52:13,600
Speaker 1: bit higher of a market price in Barcelona, then maybe

1008
00:52:13,600 --> 00:52:16,280
Speaker 1: we should so Monico plus three fifty.

1009
00:52:16,760 --> 00:52:19,360
Speaker 2: If Belgrade's not going to defend or if Benfica is

1010
00:52:19,360 --> 00:52:22,600
Speaker 2: not going to defend again, Belgrade could couldn't surprise them.

1011
00:52:22,960 --> 00:52:27,360
Speaker 1: Beneficair very bad offensive metrics so far in Portugal.

1012
00:52:28,280 --> 00:52:30,880
Speaker 3: That's what I like. I said that they were.

1013
00:52:30,760 --> 00:52:33,640
Speaker 1: The take nobody and they're not allowing anything.

1014
00:52:33,440 --> 00:52:38,840
Speaker 3: In favor of Studio. Yeah, you can throw Belgrade in

1015
00:52:38,880 --> 00:52:42,440
Speaker 3: there too if you want, go for it. Why not? Okay?

1016
00:52:42,560 --> 00:52:46,320
Speaker 3: Favorite bets for match week one of the league phase,

1017
00:52:46,680 --> 00:52:49,879
Speaker 3: the first league phase of the Champions League, the twenty

1018
00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:53,560
Speaker 3: twenty four to twenty five Champions League, Anthony, what do

1019
00:52:53,560 --> 00:52:54,160
Speaker 3: you got.

1020
00:52:54,400 --> 00:52:57,040
Speaker 2: City under under three go to the high profile match.

1021
00:52:57,040 --> 00:53:00,279
Speaker 2: We'll bet the under. I really think we could see

1022
00:53:00,320 --> 00:53:02,920
Speaker 2: some inter rotation of their top attackers in the second half,

1023
00:53:03,160 --> 00:53:05,800
Speaker 2: and Zogie's been very cautious about kind of managing minutes

1024
00:53:05,840 --> 00:53:08,880
Speaker 2: that way. I also think City has run up grazy

1025
00:53:09,040 --> 00:53:11,000
Speaker 2: my City, I mean, Holland has run up some crazy

1026
00:53:11,000 --> 00:53:13,479
Speaker 2: gold totals. But under the hood. I've been a little

1027
00:53:13,520 --> 00:53:15,640
Speaker 2: impressed with how much their press is better, which I

1028
00:53:15,640 --> 00:53:18,680
Speaker 2: think helps their defense. And they should have Rodery starting

1029
00:53:18,680 --> 00:53:20,560
Speaker 2: for this one. He hasn't really played much this season

1030
00:53:21,280 --> 00:53:24,040
Speaker 2: thus far, so I think having that back and having

1031
00:53:24,120 --> 00:53:25,799
Speaker 2: him in the mix, and having two teams that want

1032
00:53:25,840 --> 00:53:28,600
Speaker 2: to play slow, this game should stay under three more

1033
00:53:28,640 --> 00:53:29,480
Speaker 2: often than it goes over.

1034
00:53:30,000 --> 00:53:34,040
Speaker 3: Okay, I'm going to pick the Arsenal Adelanta draw. I

1035
00:53:34,080 --> 00:53:37,360
Speaker 3: think that give them the spot for Arsenal, the injury

1036
00:53:37,360 --> 00:53:40,319
Speaker 3: situation for Arsenal ad Alanta. The teeth are really taken

1037
00:53:40,320 --> 00:53:42,359
Speaker 3: out of this game. I don't see either team really

1038
00:53:42,440 --> 00:53:45,439
Speaker 3: running off and putting up a route keeping the draw

1039
00:53:45,480 --> 00:53:48,960
Speaker 3: in play throughout all ninety minutes. I think if you're

1040
00:53:49,000 --> 00:53:53,880
Speaker 3: looking for a nil nil match in this first first

1041
00:53:53,880 --> 00:53:56,000
Speaker 3: match week of this league phase, I think this is not.

1042
00:53:56,200 --> 00:53:59,240
Speaker 3: This definitely is one that I would consider at thirteen

1043
00:53:59,280 --> 00:54:04,759
Speaker 3: to one. So yeah, BJ, I think that Arteta and

1044
00:54:04,920 --> 00:54:06,960
Speaker 3: Arsenal go to Atlanta with the goal of getting at

1045
00:54:07,000 --> 00:54:09,840
Speaker 3: least a point and that's where it lands. What do

1046
00:54:09,840 --> 00:54:10,200
Speaker 3: you got?

1047
00:54:11,480 --> 00:54:14,280
Speaker 1: Fire and RD lever Cusen over three goals and minus

1048
00:54:14,320 --> 00:54:18,160
Speaker 1: one ten. Fire and RD under Prisky have not been

1049
00:54:18,200 --> 00:54:21,640
Speaker 1: good to start the season, Prisky formally was at Sparta Prague,

1050
00:54:21,960 --> 00:54:24,719
Speaker 1: where he had an interesting out of possession approach a

1051
00:54:24,840 --> 00:54:27,160
Speaker 1: zonal man to manage I know, kind of contradict himself,

1052
00:54:27,200 --> 00:54:29,319
Speaker 1: but essentially pick up your man in the zone and

1053
00:54:29,400 --> 00:54:31,319
Speaker 1: try to play from there. It did not work. When

1054
00:54:31,360 --> 00:54:33,680
Speaker 1: they played Liverpool in the round of sixteen of the

1055
00:54:33,680 --> 00:54:37,080
Speaker 1: Europa League, they lost eleven to two on aggregate fire

1056
00:54:37,080 --> 00:54:39,840
Speaker 1: and RD loses two of their best defensive pieces Wifier

1057
00:54:40,040 --> 00:54:43,440
Speaker 1: to Brighten, Gutruda to RB Leipzig, so they're going to

1058
00:54:43,600 --> 00:54:48,000
Speaker 1: start to regress defensively. Leverkusen is a very very difficult

1059
00:54:48,000 --> 00:54:50,600
Speaker 1: team to defend. They will overload every phase of build

1060
00:54:50,680 --> 00:54:53,160
Speaker 1: up and their passing is so quick and so aggressive

1061
00:54:53,200 --> 00:54:55,400
Speaker 1: that they can cut you open in an instant. But

1062
00:54:55,600 --> 00:54:59,040
Speaker 1: they have left themselves kind of vulnerable with how aggressively

1063
00:54:59,080 --> 00:55:01,080
Speaker 1: they counterpress and try to win the ball back, so

1064
00:55:01,120 --> 00:55:03,480
Speaker 1: they're vulnerable some balls over the top fine or didn't

1065
00:55:03,480 --> 00:55:05,960
Speaker 1: really lose any of their offensive pieces from last season,

1066
00:55:06,200 --> 00:55:07,520
Speaker 1: so I think we're going to see a very high

1067
00:55:07,520 --> 00:55:10,360
Speaker 1: event type match here. Projecting three and a half expected goals,

1068
00:55:10,400 --> 00:55:12,319
Speaker 1: so I like over three of minus one ten.

1069
00:55:12,640 --> 00:55:17,520
Speaker 3: All right, that does it for our first Champions League

1070
00:55:17,560 --> 00:55:21,160
Speaker 3: match week preview. I like like I said, six on Tuesday, six,

1071
00:55:21,239 --> 00:55:24,560
Speaker 3: on Wednesday, six, on Thursday. We'll be back Thursday morning

1072
00:55:25,200 --> 00:55:27,640
Speaker 3: for our Premier League preview, and then we'll move back

1073
00:55:27,680 --> 00:55:31,719
Speaker 3: again in a fortnight to talk about match week two

1074
00:55:31,840 --> 00:55:34,920
Speaker 3: of the Champions League. Until then, thank you for stobbing

1075
00:55:34,920 --> 00:55:37,680
Speaker 3: by Anthony and BJ. Thank you for listening to you,

1076
00:55:37,840 --> 00:55:40,960
Speaker 3: thank you for rating, reviewing, subscribing. Thank you to our producers.

1077
00:55:41,320 --> 00:55:42,120
Speaker 3: We'll talk to you soon.

1078
00:55:50,360 --> 00:55:54,880
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1079
00:55:54,920 --> 00:55:57,719
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1080
00:55:57,719 --> 00:56:00,800
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one hundred gambler