WEBVTT - 3/20/26: Bibi Demands Ground Troops, Hegseth Caught Lying, Iran War Master Plan w/ David Sirota 0:00:00.480 --> 0:00:02.000 Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here. 0:00:02.080 --> 0:00:05.640 Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election, 0:00:05.760 --> 0:00:08.240 and we are so excited about what that means for 0:00:08.280 --> 0:00:09.120 the future of this show. 0:00:09.280 --> 0:00:11.160 This is the only place where you can find honest 0:00:11.160 --> 0:00:13.680 perspectives from the left and the right that simply does 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:15.040 not exist anywhere else. 0:00:15.120 --> 0:00:17.480 So if that is something that's important to you, please 0:00:17.520 --> 0:00:20.000 go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and 0:00:20.040 --> 0:00:23.200 you'll get access to our full shows, unedited, ad free, 0:00:23.200 --> 0:00:26.000 and all put together for you every morning in your inbox. 0:00:26.079 --> 0:00:27.960 We need your help to build the future of independent 0:00:27.960 --> 0:00:30.320 news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints 0:00:30.360 --> 0:00:30.960 dot com. 0:00:31.360 --> 0:00:33.480 Folks, we have an amazing show for you this morning. 0:00:33.520 --> 0:00:36.080 How are we doing, Crystal and Emily doing well? 0:00:36.440 --> 0:00:39.760 Ryan is I think en route to Cuba is the idea, 0:00:40.080 --> 0:00:42.360 So just us this morning. 0:00:43.000 --> 0:00:46.320 Ryan is pursuing regime change in Cuba. 0:00:47.240 --> 0:00:49.120 I think Emily said he's going to be installed by 0:00:49.159 --> 0:00:49.680 the CIA. 0:00:50.360 --> 0:00:51.760 We don't know that he won't. 0:00:52.120 --> 0:00:55.920 It's that's true, that is true. We have no evidence 0:00:55.960 --> 0:00:58.920 that he will not be installed as the new Cuban 0:00:59.040 --> 0:01:00.760 puppet dictator of the United States. 0:01:00.760 --> 0:01:04.800 So waiting Comrad Groom, he stopped in Miami to pick 0:01:04.880 --> 0:01:07.600 up some ex pats. He picked up Clovicular. Now they're 0:01:07.600 --> 0:01:11.120 heading over to Cuba. That's exciting. We also have some 0:01:11.160 --> 0:01:15.480 other housekeeping. Sager later today is interviewing former counter terrorism 0:01:15.480 --> 0:01:19.160 official Joe Kent, so stay tuned for that. Between the 0:01:19.160 --> 0:01:21.959 two of them, we've never gotten closer to a host 0:01:22.000 --> 0:01:25.160 being arrested, sort of a Don Lemon style situation. So 0:01:25.200 --> 0:01:27.160 I'm very excited for all that. But we've got a 0:01:27.200 --> 0:01:28.160 big show today. 0:01:28.240 --> 0:01:30.480 You know, you did just inspire a thought though, Griffin, 0:01:30.720 --> 0:01:34.160 how amazing would a Ryan Clovicular interview actually be. 0:01:35.200 --> 0:01:36.039 Really really good? 0:01:36.440 --> 0:01:36.640 Yeah? 0:01:36.680 --> 0:01:39.040 I mean I feel like that would be groundbreaking. I 0:01:39.040 --> 0:01:41.120 don't know. Did you guys just see that Andrew Callahan. 0:01:41.560 --> 0:01:42.840 I know you did because I sent it to the 0:01:42.880 --> 0:01:44.280 chat Is moment. 0:01:46.400 --> 0:01:48.080 Yes, you saw it. 0:01:49.320 --> 0:01:51.880 I also saw the moment where he met his biggest 0:01:52.000 --> 0:01:53.760 supporter on kick because you sent it. 0:01:53.880 --> 0:01:56.720 Oh my goodness. That was really that was honestly just 0:01:56.800 --> 0:01:59.720 kind of heartbreaking, sad all the way around, as Clovicular 0:01:59.800 --> 0:02:02.480 off and is in my opinion, but the moment with 0:02:02.520 --> 0:02:07.080 Callahan where he's Cliviguilar's like, there's really nothing you would 0:02:07.160 --> 0:02:09.200 change about your face when you look in the mirror 0:02:09.400 --> 0:02:12.640 and Callahan just like leans back, crosses his legs and 0:02:12.680 --> 0:02:17.000 he's like, no, not a thing. Clar crashes out Major 0:02:17.040 --> 0:02:20.200 Cortisol spike and ends a interview. It's kind of extraordinary. 0:02:20.520 --> 0:02:23.000 Male self confidence is his kryptonite. 0:02:24.200 --> 0:02:27.320 Good point, which I think is also I think I 0:02:27.320 --> 0:02:30.320 think Ryan would destroy him. Then, yeahs as someone who's 0:02:30.320 --> 0:02:34.240 tried to upgrade Ryan's appearance, myself and he and you know, 0:02:34.440 --> 0:02:35.440 hit a wall there. 0:02:35.600 --> 0:02:39.040 But yeah, you try to look Smack got shut. 0:02:38.800 --> 0:02:40.800 Down the time he told you to fix his hair 0:02:41.200 --> 0:02:41.880 and he just went. 0:02:45.120 --> 0:02:49.240 But folks, let's get to some far more serious topics here. 0:02:49.320 --> 0:02:51.160 We have a lot going on in the show today. 0:02:51.400 --> 0:02:55.840 We have updates on possible ground deployment on or near 0:02:56.000 --> 0:02:59.959 the Iranian border with US troops. We've got some oil updates, 0:03:00.400 --> 0:03:06.120 and we've got some potential contradictions between what Hegseth heard 0:03:06.200 --> 0:03:10.720 from the fallen Soldiers family and what Hegseeth has been saying. 0:03:11.000 --> 0:03:13.760 And then we also have David Soota coming on to 0:03:13.880 --> 0:03:16.680 tell us a little bit more about the updates or 0:03:16.720 --> 0:03:20.359 the Phase two of the master plan, so we're excited 0:03:20.360 --> 0:03:21.000 to speak to him. 0:03:21.280 --> 0:03:22.519 Plus ye bunch. 0:03:22.440 --> 0:03:26.080 More focused on the unitary executive, like basically the way 0:03:26.160 --> 0:03:30.880 that previous administrations over decades and previous operatives over decades 0:03:31.000 --> 0:03:34.200 have turned the presidency into effectively a monarchy, just in 0:03:34.240 --> 0:03:36.080 time for Trump to come in and want to be 0:03:36.160 --> 0:03:37.440 king and have the powers. 0:03:37.080 --> 0:03:37.440 To do so. 0:03:39.360 --> 0:03:42.760 Really great timing there. But let's start with our friend 0:03:42.800 --> 0:03:47.920 Benjamin Netanyah, who Israeli Prime Minister Netanyah, who says can't 0:03:47.920 --> 0:03:51.080 do a revolution in Iran from the air, there needs 0:03:51.120 --> 0:03:54.400 to be a ground component as well. He says there 0:03:54.400 --> 0:03:57.440 are many possibilities for a ground component, but won't share 0:03:57.600 --> 0:03:58.160 what they are. 0:03:58.360 --> 0:03:59.000 What do we make of it? 0:03:59.080 --> 0:04:01.680 Yeah, it's certainly looks like that's the direction we're heading in, 0:04:01.720 --> 0:04:04.760 and we can talk about some additional reporting about you know, 0:04:04.800 --> 0:04:07.600 it's really coming down to the straight upfoe moves. It's 0:04:07.640 --> 0:04:10.720 also we now have the Huthis onsar a LA who 0:04:10.800 --> 0:04:13.240 are saying they are going to join the fight, which 0:04:13.240 --> 0:04:16.520 means that one of the alternative pathways for oil will 0:04:16.520 --> 0:04:19.640 potentially also be shut down because they successfully shut down 0:04:19.720 --> 0:04:23.159 that pathway previously just using you know, drones and menacing 0:04:23.160 --> 0:04:26.679 ships in the area. So you know, at this point, 0:04:26.920 --> 0:04:29.960 I think what Manyao is acknowledging here is that he 0:04:30.120 --> 0:04:33.000 has helped to get the US to a point where 0:04:33.000 --> 0:04:36.880 there is going to be no more significant strategic success 0:04:37.360 --> 0:04:41.000 without some ground troop component, which he's happy to see 0:04:41.080 --> 0:04:43.719 our service members go in and fight and get slaughtered, 0:04:43.760 --> 0:04:46.000 and US to be weakened in the region well, along 0:04:46.120 --> 0:04:48.719 with of course Iran and the GCC member states being 0:04:48.760 --> 0:04:52.320 weakened as well. And you know, I'm always very clear 0:04:52.400 --> 0:04:54.640 that ultimately this is all Trump's fault. He's the one 0:04:54.680 --> 0:04:57.680 who ultimately decided to go in. You know, I think 0:04:57.720 --> 0:04:59.480 a lot of the reporting about, oh, they have different 0:04:59.480 --> 0:05:01.080 aims and maybe there's going to be a blow up, 0:05:01.080 --> 0:05:03.120 blah blah blah. I put that in the same category 0:05:03.240 --> 0:05:06.560 as the repeated leaks to Barack Ravine during the Biden 0:05:06.680 --> 0:05:09.400 the Brandon administration, where it was always very upset with 0:05:09.480 --> 0:05:13.080 net Yahoo blah blah blah. I think they're similarly absurd 0:05:13.279 --> 0:05:16.760 that there's some significant break coming between the Trump regime 0:05:16.839 --> 0:05:20.080 and the net Yahoo regime. But you know, one other 0:05:20.120 --> 0:05:22.800 thing that I'll mention here is in Netanyahu's comments, which 0:05:22.800 --> 0:05:24.680 we're going to place some mothers of that are very 0:05:24.680 --> 0:05:26.440 interesting that I want to hear Emily's take on for 0:05:26.560 --> 0:05:29.320 you in a moment, but he did a classic thing 0:05:29.640 --> 0:05:32.120 of in English. He was like, this thing could be 0:05:32.160 --> 0:05:34.360 over really quickly, I think in response to a question 0:05:34.400 --> 0:05:36.040 from Richard Engel, He's like, this could be over a 0:05:36.080 --> 0:05:38.960 lot quicker than people think. And then in Hebrew to 0:05:39.000 --> 0:05:41.240 the Israelis is like, this is going to go as 0:05:41.279 --> 0:05:43.880 along as long as it needs to go. We're going 0:05:43.960 --> 0:05:45.560 to be in here as long as we need to 0:05:45.600 --> 0:05:48.480 be there. So, you know, very different messages to the 0:05:48.520 --> 0:05:52.000 English speaking world versus the domestic audience in Israel. 0:05:52.720 --> 0:05:55.599 And I think the two things that seem right now 0:05:55.720 --> 0:05:59.760 fundamental things that seem to have been totally what's the 0:05:59.800 --> 0:06:01.560 right word here, like I don't want to use the 0:06:01.600 --> 0:06:04.640 word that's too generous, but seem to have been underestimated 0:06:05.120 --> 0:06:06.560 on behalf of the United States. 0:06:06.920 --> 0:06:09.000 Is the strait of her moves and. 0:06:09.040 --> 0:06:11.640 The what Iran would do, how far they would go 0:06:11.680 --> 0:06:14.200 with the strade of her moves, and the ability of 0:06:14.360 --> 0:06:18.760 anti regime coalition forces on the ground in Iran to 0:06:19.080 --> 0:06:24.120 stage some type of revolution. And that's where you do airstrikes. 0:06:24.520 --> 0:06:26.799 You see the presence saying this is for the freedom 0:06:26.960 --> 0:06:30.160 of the Iranian people. We now know that they were 0:06:30.200 --> 0:06:32.359 overly confident about what would happen in the strait of 0:06:32.360 --> 0:06:35.520 her moves, and with those two puzzle pieces being. 0:06:35.839 --> 0:06:37.560 Clearly I mean the administration. 0:06:37.760 --> 0:06:40.080 They probably weren't a hundred percent certain about either of them, 0:06:40.080 --> 0:06:43.320 but clearly they thought the likelihood that they would be 0:06:43.360 --> 0:06:47.040 able to have a revolution, They would be able to 0:06:47.040 --> 0:06:49.479 create the conditions for a revolution that would topple the 0:06:49.480 --> 0:06:53.880 regime if they kill the Iyatola and struck all of 0:06:53.920 --> 0:06:58.080 these different places and created chaos. These Raelis obviously have 0:06:58.120 --> 0:07:01.920 a different take on that than our government. But if 0:07:01.920 --> 0:07:04.640 you have those two pieces wrong, you can see how 0:07:04.640 --> 0:07:07.480 you start getting closer and closer to ground troops, which 0:07:07.520 --> 0:07:10.480 is exactly what people were saying, exactly what we were 0:07:10.480 --> 0:07:15.040 saying on this show. It becomes a spiral, and that's 0:07:16.080 --> 0:07:18.720 so easy for it to happen. But when you have 0:07:18.800 --> 0:07:23.360 those two puzzle pieces being incorrect, that's how you get 0:07:23.360 --> 0:07:26.360 ground troops. It's exactly the recipe that people predicted. 0:07:26.760 --> 0:07:31.080 It is the escalation trap, as Professor Pape has laid 0:07:31.120 --> 0:07:34.320 out for us multiple times on our show, where now 0:07:34.520 --> 0:07:37.360 the only way that Trump could actually end this war 0:07:37.440 --> 0:07:39.960 at this point would be not only for him to 0:07:40.080 --> 0:07:44.920 walk away, but for there to be significant concessions given 0:07:44.960 --> 0:07:47.679 to Iran. I mean, he would have to not only 0:07:47.720 --> 0:07:49.880 walk away, but walk away with his tail between his 0:07:50.040 --> 0:07:53.000 legs saying what would you like to make you feel 0:07:53.000 --> 0:07:56.360 safe and secure? Iranian government that is still firmly in 0:07:56.360 --> 0:07:59.880 place and now also is directly controlling who comes and 0:08:00.080 --> 0:08:02.760 goes from the Strait of Hormuz. So it's you know, 0:08:02.880 --> 0:08:06.680 I mean, he's in a he has created an absolute 0:08:06.880 --> 0:08:11.040 mess for himself, and you know, here's some of the indications. 0:08:11.080 --> 0:08:14.720 This is again Rock Ravine Mark Capudo about what is 0:08:14.760 --> 0:08:18.240 being considered Trumpmull's risky carg Island takeover to force Iron 0:08:18.320 --> 0:08:21.600 to open straight. We also have news that more marines 0:08:21.680 --> 0:08:25.280 are being rushed to the region. There's expected to be 0:08:25.320 --> 0:08:27.880 some overlap between this new deployment of marines and the 0:08:27.920 --> 0:08:30.880 marines that have already been rushed into the region, so 0:08:31.280 --> 0:08:33.520 that seems like it could be, you know, leading to 0:08:33.920 --> 0:08:36.720 some sort of boots on the ground. I did see Emily, 0:08:36.720 --> 0:08:38.040 do you remember who it was or Griffin, do you 0:08:38.080 --> 0:08:40.560 remember who it was? One of the Republican senators who 0:08:40.600 --> 0:08:43.880 was like, well, if the boots are only on an island. 0:08:44.000 --> 0:08:47.320 That's not the same as boots on the ground in 0:08:47.480 --> 0:08:51.360 like mainland or on. I liked that definition of boots 0:08:51.360 --> 0:08:52.800 on the ground. Yeah, I wish I could remember who 0:08:52.840 --> 0:08:55.480 it was, but in any case, revied reporting. Here the 0:08:55.520 --> 0:08:59.240 Trump administration considering plans to occupy your blockade Aron's carg 0:08:59.280 --> 0:09:03.000 Island to Iran to reopen the straight of horror. 0:09:03.000 --> 0:09:03.280 MOUs. 0:09:03.920 --> 0:09:07.160 Let me also show you this US warplanes and helicopters 0:09:07.160 --> 0:09:10.400 is from the Wall Street Journal kickoff battle to reopen Hormuves. 0:09:10.480 --> 0:09:13.800 So this battle has already started now. USNS allies have 0:09:13.840 --> 0:09:16.800 intensified the battle to reopen the Strait of Hormuves, sending 0:09:16.920 --> 0:09:20.000 low flying attack jets over the sea lanes to blast 0:09:20.000 --> 0:09:23.760 Iranian naval vessels, and Apache helicopters to shoot down Iran's 0:09:23.800 --> 0:09:27.240 deadly drones. According to American military officials, the stepped up 0:09:27.320 --> 0:09:30.240 operation is part of a multi stage Pentagon plan to 0:09:30.280 --> 0:09:32.600 reduce the danger from Irani in arm boats, mines, and 0:09:32.640 --> 0:09:35.720 cruise missiles which have halted ship traffic through the waterway. 0:09:35.880 --> 0:09:38.000 Not exactly Iran is getting the ships through that they 0:09:38.080 --> 0:09:39.679 want to get through, but in any case, if the 0:09:39.720 --> 0:09:43.080 danger can be reduced, the US could send US warships 0:09:43.080 --> 0:09:45.720 through the straight and eventually escort vehicles in and out 0:09:45.800 --> 0:09:49.120 of the Persian Gulf, but it will still likely take 0:09:49.280 --> 0:09:51.880 weeks for the US to clear out Iran's web of 0:09:51.960 --> 0:09:54.040 assets that have harassed traffic through a chow point for 0:09:54.080 --> 0:09:57.200 twenty percent of the world's oil experts in a large 0:09:57.240 --> 0:10:00.280 amount of commercial shipping traffic. And there is is a 0:10:00.400 --> 0:10:03.439 quote in here they're using these A ten wart hogs 0:10:03.559 --> 0:10:07.559 extensively in this operation, apparently for the military people out there, 0:10:07.600 --> 0:10:10.480 to whom that means something. And there is a quote 0:10:10.480 --> 0:10:14.760 in here where someone an analyst, as military analyst, says, look, 0:10:15.240 --> 0:10:17.000 even here it is lowering the threat to the point 0:10:17.000 --> 0:10:20.520 where ships can resume transiting the strait is doable, but 0:10:21.120 --> 0:10:24.240 it takes time, and you are probably never going to 0:10:24.280 --> 0:10:27.080 get to one hundred percent. We could reach a stage 0:10:27.120 --> 0:10:30.320 where we're getting ships through and they could still get 0:10:30.400 --> 0:10:34.160 a lucky shot. So that is the landscape. At this point. 0:10:34.200 --> 0:10:36.720 You know, the battle has already joined, they have already escalated. 0:10:36.760 --> 0:10:41.000 They're now trying to restore control over the strait of hormones. 0:10:41.000 --> 0:10:43.280 The ability of our ships and our ally ships to 0:10:43.280 --> 0:10:46.400 be able to pass through and it will take a 0:10:46.400 --> 0:10:49.439 lot of time, it will be very risky and very dangerous. 0:10:49.679 --> 0:10:52.240 And even after all of that work, even in the 0:10:52.280 --> 0:10:55.720 most optimistic scenario, you are still going to have the 0:10:55.760 --> 0:10:59.560 possibility of an Iranian drone coming in and lowing something up, 0:10:59.600 --> 0:11:02.760 with DEVI stating consequences for you know, for lives and treasure. 0:11:03.679 --> 0:11:03.840 You know. 0:11:03.920 --> 0:11:06.120 I saw an update this morning that the death toll 0:11:06.200 --> 0:11:09.920 right now in Lebanon is around one thousand, and Iran 0:11:10.200 --> 0:11:12.840 is around thirteen hundred. And I don't know the breakdown, 0:11:12.880 --> 0:11:14.920 first of all, I mean it's I don't know how 0:11:15.040 --> 0:11:16.800 confident we are in those numbers or the reports are 0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:19.079 in those numbers. But and I don't know what the 0:11:19.120 --> 0:11:25.480 breakdown is of civilians to militants. That's two thousand already 0:11:25.559 --> 0:11:27.800 in this war. That's two thousand. I mean, we're double 0:11:27.840 --> 0:11:32.320 digits of Americans. That's two thousand people just in the 0:11:32.320 --> 0:11:34.880 time span of a couple of weeks. And just we're 0:11:35.040 --> 0:11:39.080 so numb to people being bodies in the Middle East, 0:11:39.160 --> 0:11:44.200 in particular in the Middle East, that's especially after Gaza. 0:11:44.280 --> 0:11:48.520 But that's that's it's hard for me to believe how 0:11:48.600 --> 0:11:51.720 little conversation there is about how much death there's already been. 0:11:52.480 --> 0:11:57.000 Yeah, well, and we had a major incident yesterday as well. 0:11:57.120 --> 0:12:00.679 I can put this up on the screen, where an 0:12:00.920 --> 0:12:05.559 F thirty five aircraft was apparently struck by the Iranians. 0:12:06.080 --> 0:12:09.760 This marks first, This is an extraordinary This is like 0:12:09.800 --> 0:12:13.199 the highest tech of our high tech fighter jets. It's 0:12:13.240 --> 0:12:15.840 supposed to be stealth. The fact that they were able 0:12:15.880 --> 0:12:19.880 to hit this plane, this jet was apparently very significant, 0:12:19.920 --> 0:12:22.920 says US. F thirty five aircraft makes emergency landing after 0:12:23.040 --> 0:12:25.839 combat mission over Iran. By the way, there is some 0:12:26.559 --> 0:12:29.680 I think appropriate skepticism about exactly the story that we're 0:12:29.679 --> 0:12:32.320 being told here that the F thirty five fighter jet 0:12:32.400 --> 0:12:35.680 landed safely and the pilot is in stable condition. I 0:12:35.720 --> 0:12:38.800 have seen some conjecture they haven't said where or who 0:12:39.000 --> 0:12:41.319 or any of the specifics, so there is some conjecture 0:12:41.400 --> 0:12:43.880 over whether that part of this is true or not. 0:12:44.040 --> 0:12:47.920 I also saw some conjecture that another F thirty five 0:12:47.960 --> 0:12:51.520 may have also been been struck, but this is all 0:12:51.559 --> 0:12:55.400 still very unconfirmed. What we do know is that Iran 0:12:55.559 --> 0:12:57.959 was at least able to hit this one jet, and 0:12:58.000 --> 0:13:00.560 the Iranians release some of the footage that they purported 0:13:00.600 --> 0:13:02.560 to be from that takedown. They said. An F thirty 0:13:02.600 --> 0:13:04.480 five fighter jet from the US has made an emergency 0:13:04.559 --> 0:13:07.080 landing at n air Base in the Middle East after 0:13:07.120 --> 0:13:10.280 carrying out a combat mission over Iran. Aircraft landed safely. 0:13:10.360 --> 0:13:14.000 Pilot is in stable condition. We are aware of reports 0:13:14.000 --> 0:13:16.760 that a US F thirty five aircraft conducted emergency landing 0:13:16.760 --> 0:13:19.559 at a regional US air base after flying a combat 0:13:19.600 --> 0:13:24.280 mission over i Run. Aircraft landed safely. Incident is under investigation. 0:13:24.679 --> 0:13:28.920 CNN reported two anonymous sources saying the plane, which costs 0:13:29.000 --> 0:13:34.280 up to one hundred million dollars, was likely hit by Iran. 0:13:34.720 --> 0:13:37.720 So the fact that they can take shots at these things, this, 0:13:38.320 --> 0:13:42.199 according to the military analysts, is very significant because it 0:13:42.280 --> 0:13:44.640 makes it much more dangerous for the US to just 0:13:44.679 --> 0:13:48.360 fly these sorties over Iran because now you're like, oh, 0:13:48.720 --> 0:13:52.400 they have a capability. We did not know that they had, 0:13:52.640 --> 0:13:54.520 so now we have to plan for that, and that 0:13:54.640 --> 0:13:57.000 isn't you know, that is a very clear risk for 0:13:57.040 --> 0:14:00.160 these pilots who are involved. We've already had a number 0:13:59.960 --> 0:14:03.800 of other aircraft, American aircraft I saw, you know, upwards 0:14:03.800 --> 0:14:06.440 of somewhere around sixteen that have been damaged or destroyed 0:14:06.960 --> 0:14:09.559 in a variety of circumstances. Some of the circumstances I 0:14:09.600 --> 0:14:11.760 continue to believe we're not getting the accurate story about, 0:14:11.800 --> 0:14:13.719 including the three that just plummeted from the sky and 0:14:13.760 --> 0:14:16.280 they're like, h oops, friendly fire. We didn't know, you know, 0:14:16.440 --> 0:14:19.600 something happened. The refueling one is also big question marks 0:14:19.600 --> 0:14:19.960 there too. 0:14:20.440 --> 0:14:23.640 They said it was like it wasn't offensive or defensive, 0:14:23.720 --> 0:14:26.760 it was like a neutral error that those three planes 0:14:26.800 --> 0:14:30.080 went down. Is this like the ghost of Kuwaid or 0:14:30.120 --> 0:14:31.920 something like, I'm not really sure what's happening. 0:14:32.360 --> 0:14:36.120 One of the theories. One of the theories again unconfirmed, 0:14:36.320 --> 0:14:38.880 but listen, I mean, we just can't believe anything this 0:14:38.960 --> 0:14:40.800 government says. At this point. We'll tell you about some 0:14:40.840 --> 0:14:43.880 of the just insanely basic things that Pete Hegseth is 0:14:43.880 --> 0:14:46.520 out here lying about in a moment. But in any case, 0:14:46.560 --> 0:14:49.400 one of the theories is that it was actually like 0:14:49.440 --> 0:14:53.800 a GCC allied pilot that went rogue, a Kuwaiting pilot 0:14:53.840 --> 0:14:58.720 in particular and intentionally shot down are fighter jets. That's 0:14:58.800 --> 0:15:01.560 one of the theories to me, that's much more plausible 0:15:01.600 --> 0:15:04.920 at least than the idea like Oopsie's we just had 0:15:05.000 --> 0:15:08.440 some sort of an unspecified incident, and all three of 0:15:08.480 --> 0:15:10.680 these happened to you know, crash to the ground in 0:15:10.720 --> 0:15:11.160 the same day. 0:15:12.440 --> 0:15:15.000 Definitely doesn't make sense. No, definitely does not sense. 0:15:15.400 --> 0:15:19.040 Yeah, and this reporter from Newsmax shared some about the 0:15:19.080 --> 0:15:22.240 accelerated deployment of the Marines and sailors heading to the 0:15:22.240 --> 0:15:26.160 Middle East. Four officials tell Newsmas the Boxer Amphibious Ready 0:15:26.200 --> 0:15:30.080 Group and the embarked eleventh Marine Expeditionary Units deploying ahead 0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:33.920 of schedule. There are roughly twenty five hundred Marines four 0:15:34.000 --> 0:15:40.040 thousand total service members seemingly to potentially take or blockade 0:15:40.440 --> 0:15:45.480 this carg Island area, which essentially, you know, seems strategically 0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:47.720 kind of like a killbox for. 0:15:47.840 --> 0:15:49.560 These US soldiers. 0:15:50.560 --> 0:15:56.200 Additionally, we have some sought here from Scott Besson talking 0:15:56.240 --> 0:15:58.960 about his ideas for carg Island. 0:15:59.040 --> 0:15:59.760 Let's take a listen. 0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:01.640 There's laser focus on it. 0:16:02.000 --> 0:16:04.640 As I said, there was a bombing campaign last week 0:16:05.040 --> 0:16:09.240 a military at Caragio and were destroyed. And the other 0:16:09.280 --> 0:16:11.440 thing I can tell you, if you're an oil worker, 0:16:11.760 --> 0:16:13.600 you don't want to work there. So all the oil 0:16:13.640 --> 0:16:17.120 workers that are being coerced to stay there and you know, 0:16:17.480 --> 0:16:21.640 we will see what happens with whether that eventually becomes 0:16:21.280 --> 0:16:24.240 a US. 0:16:23.480 --> 0:16:25.920 All right, so it could eventually become a US asset, 0:16:26.040 --> 0:16:27.280 maybe the fifty first state. 0:16:27.520 --> 0:16:28.000 You never know. 0:16:32.240 --> 0:16:35.280 Yeah, And this is all amidst the fact that they 0:16:35.320 --> 0:16:37.960 tried to get other countries to come into the straight 0:16:38.000 --> 0:16:41.000 up our moves to provide back up. They're all like, actually, 0:16:41.040 --> 0:16:43.080 we're going to hard pass on that. So I guess 0:16:43.120 --> 0:16:45.080 now we're like, okay, we'll just dump all of our 0:16:45.120 --> 0:16:48.120 service men in there, see how that goes well. 0:16:48.120 --> 0:16:50.280 And I was I was watching a BBC report last night. 0:16:50.680 --> 0:16:53.880 This probably sounds obvious to many people, but Iran has 0:16:54.080 --> 0:16:58.000 prepared for these possibilities for a long time, and they 0:16:58.000 --> 0:17:01.320 have other ports that aren't just going to that. Carg 0:17:01.360 --> 0:17:03.720 Island is not going to US. Takeover of Carg Island 0:17:03.840 --> 0:17:07.920 is not going to prevent so prevent them from using So. 0:17:08.119 --> 0:17:11.080 It's just it does look like escalation spiral. 0:17:11.280 --> 0:17:14.560 It does look like Trump might have some excuse to 0:17:14.560 --> 0:17:15.880 say this limited operation. 0:17:16.080 --> 0:17:17.720 Just like Crystal said, it's not boots. 0:17:17.440 --> 0:17:19.479 On the ground and the boots on the island as 0:17:19.480 --> 0:17:24.680 though the island doesn't soil. And then from there your 0:17:24.960 --> 0:17:27.200 your boots on the ground. That's we all know how 0:17:27.200 --> 0:17:29.080 that goes. We've all seen how that has gone over 0:17:29.080 --> 0:17:30.080 the last twenty years. 0:17:30.440 --> 0:17:32.679 Well, and first from speaking of Professor Pape, you know 0:17:32.880 --> 0:17:35.280 what he warns is, first of all, we were taking 0:17:35.280 --> 0:17:37.520 a look at the geography of this area of these 0:17:37.560 --> 0:17:40.359 Sheer cliffs. To Emily's point, you know, the Iranians been 0:17:40.400 --> 0:17:43.760 gaming this out for literally decades thinking about this. They 0:17:43.800 --> 0:17:46.000 also learned a lot, well, they learned a lot from 0:17:46.000 --> 0:17:47.919 the Iran Iraq War, which we of course were you know, 0:17:47.960 --> 0:17:49.639 backing I rock in. And then we've learned a lot 0:17:49.720 --> 0:17:53.639 more recently from the Twelve Day War. And some of 0:17:53.720 --> 0:17:56.440 the speculation I've seen is actually this capacity to take 0:17:56.480 --> 0:17:59.640 down our F thirty five fighter jets or potentially take 0:17:59.680 --> 0:18:02.840 them down, was developed after the Twelve Day War. So 0:18:02.880 --> 0:18:04.919 that tells you they haven't just been sitting there like 0:18:05.400 --> 0:18:08.760 I'm sure this diplomacy with Jared Kushner and Steve Wicoff's 0:18:08.760 --> 0:18:11.720 gonna work out this time. No, they were clear eyed. 0:18:12.200 --> 0:18:15.840 They knew that this was very likely, if not, you know, inevitable, 0:18:16.320 --> 0:18:20.159 and they've been thinking about how exactly to prepare. So 0:18:20.880 --> 0:18:23.520 taking carg Island is one thing maybe you can. You 0:18:23.520 --> 0:18:26.040 could probably accomplish that, you know, with the US military 0:18:26.160 --> 0:18:28.280 come in full force, bomb a bunch of shit, you know, 0:18:28.400 --> 0:18:30.320 kill a bunch of kill a bunch of people, and 0:18:30.640 --> 0:18:33.240 probably some of our service members die as well. But 0:18:33.240 --> 0:18:35.760 then you also have to hold Carg Island and it's 0:18:35.800 --> 0:18:39.119 you know, very close to the Iranian mainland. Would not 0:18:39.200 --> 0:18:42.000 be hard for shaw He drones which had been apparently 0:18:42.080 --> 0:18:44.320 you know, been able to fly. It will basically wherever 0:18:44.320 --> 0:18:47.960 they want, damage whatever they want throughout this throughout this war. 0:18:48.520 --> 0:18:52.159 So you are in a very very difficult position. And 0:18:52.200 --> 0:18:55.280 now what Now you're entrenched on Carg Island and you 0:18:55.320 --> 0:18:58.880 know where you're gonna Now we're staying there forever. We're 0:18:58.880 --> 0:19:02.119 claiming this is a US asset. Not clear that that's 0:19:02.160 --> 0:19:05.160 going to certainly not going to topple the regime. As 0:19:05.440 --> 0:19:07.480 Griff and emilyin both of you guys are pointing out, 0:19:07.800 --> 0:19:11.879 they have other options which again they they developed partly 0:19:11.960 --> 0:19:15.960 during the Iran Iraq War. Actually, they it will definitely 0:19:16.000 --> 0:19:20.640 be damaging to their economic prospects, there's no doubt about that. 0:19:20.760 --> 0:19:23.120 But again there this is existential for them, so they're 0:19:23.119 --> 0:19:25.840 willing to take a lot more pain, and because we 0:19:25.960 --> 0:19:28.480 hold carg Island also does not mean that we've cleared 0:19:28.520 --> 0:19:30.240 up the problems with the Straight of Horror moves, which 0:19:30.280 --> 0:19:33.439 is a separate and independent issue. It may help, but 0:19:33.560 --> 0:19:37.239 it's not going to solve that problem. So now a 0:19:37.320 --> 0:19:41.399 lot of the war focus is around this new problem 0:19:41.480 --> 0:19:44.359 that has been created in the war, where victory is 0:19:44.359 --> 0:19:48.600 effectively being defined as just getting back to some semblance 0:19:48.680 --> 0:19:52.240 of the pre war status quo. Though even if you're 0:19:52.280 --> 0:19:55.080 able through some you know, miraculous feed and ironie collat 0:19:55.119 --> 0:19:58.159 military class whatever to reopen the Straight of Horror moves, 0:19:58.760 --> 0:20:00.879 you have still created a situation where you have a 0:20:00.960 --> 0:20:03.760 more hardline government in place in Iran which is much 0:20:03.760 --> 0:20:06.960 more likely to pursue nuclear weapons and much less likely 0:20:07.000 --> 0:20:09.520 to engage in the future in any sort of diplomacy 0:20:09.800 --> 0:20:12.399 with you. And that is just sort of done and 0:20:12.440 --> 0:20:15.280 baked in at this point, which is part of why 0:20:16.200 --> 0:20:21.040