Speaker 1: Check it down man, Now down Man, It's the Beating
Speaker 1: the Book podcast Still Ale, Amanda, Good morning to you
Speaker 1: once again during this global pandemic. Hope you're doing well.
Speaker 1: I hope you and your loved ones are staying safe.
Speaker 1: Trying to put out different kinds of content during the pandemic.
Speaker 1: Hopefully you've enjoyed some of it, if not most of it,
Speaker 1: if not all of it. Uh. And one of the
Speaker 1: subsets of things I've done is trying to profile some
Speaker 1: of the prominent figures throughout the sports betting industry. Alan Boston,
Speaker 1: Rufus Peabody, Bob Stoles, just to name a few that
Speaker 1: I've had the pleasure of talking with during this time. Today. Similarly,
Speaker 1: a gentleman who I have been admiring from AFAR for
Speaker 1: a very long time. I think he just does everything right,
Speaker 1: comes from a great place, and it's just trying to
Speaker 1: make better betters out of every one who tries to
Speaker 1: get the best of the number in this business and
Speaker 1: tries to beat the sports betting markets. A real consumer
Speaker 1: advocate for the sports betting industry in addition to being
Speaker 1: a pro better himself. It's Captain Jack Andrews. Hope you
Speaker 1: enjoyed this as much as I did right here on
Speaker 1: the Beating the Book podcast, It's a numbers game with
Speaker 1: your host, Jil Alexander untold us to believe in Adam lives.
Speaker 1: It is a numbers game right here live at Visa
Speaker 1: of course serious except Channel two oh for the Vegas
Speaker 1: Stats and Information Network, the Sports Betting Network, Gil Alexander
Speaker 1: uh football game plus Sling. However, you're taking us in
Speaker 1: this morning, maybe with video at Visa dot com, the
Speaker 1: Visa app. Thank you for joining us. As you know,
Speaker 1: during this pandemic, I have tried to profile some of
Speaker 1: the people that I'm most interested in in the sports
Speaker 1: betting industry to get a sense of how they started,
Speaker 1: how they became the betters and the men that they
Speaker 1: are today. Rufus Peabody has been kind enough to join
Speaker 1: us on the show in that vain Bob Stole, Alan
Speaker 1: Boston Uh and today one of the people who I
Speaker 1: probably have admired the most from Afar. I may not
Speaker 1: have said that to him directly before, but it is
Speaker 1: definitely the case. I just love everything that he does.
Speaker 1: He's a professional better himself, but really a consumer advocate
Speaker 1: for everybody in the sports book industry, just doing good
Speaker 1: things all around. First time on the show and an
Speaker 1: honor to have him. You know him from Twitter as
Speaker 1: Captain Jack Andrews. Jack. Good morning to you man. How
Speaker 1: are you, hey, Gil, It's honor and a privilege to
Speaker 1: be here with you. Thank you, Thank you man. You
Speaker 1: dressed for us, so we appreciate that as well. I'm
Speaker 1: not as spiffy as you are this morning. I apologize
Speaker 1: for that. I put on a collar shirt and took
Speaker 1: a shower. It's uh, it's Tuesday, Jack. I may not
Speaker 1: be wearing pants. I have no idea that's that's a
Speaker 1: possibility with all these during the pandemic. Let me start
Speaker 1: at the beginning where I always like to with everybody,
Speaker 1: which is kind of a logical place to start. Um,
Speaker 1: where are you from? What was your background? How did
Speaker 1: you become so interested and so passionate about this industry? Uh?
Speaker 1: You know, I was born in New Jersey. I've lived
Speaker 1: here all my life. Um, so that you know, that's
Speaker 1: one strike against me, I guess. But I started out
Speaker 1: as a card counter and playing blackjack around or so
Speaker 1: I think, is when I got into that, and I
Speaker 1: was doing that for a while, just recreationally, and then
Speaker 1: I got into internet casinos, and there are numerous ways
Speaker 1: to beat internet casinos back in the day. And then
Speaker 1: that sort of morphed into online sports books back around
Speaker 1: on that time period. That's back when we had aces
Speaker 1: Gold and bet on sports dot com and places like that.
Speaker 1: You know, crack Man's talked about those quite a bit
Speaker 1: in the past. It was all as good as it was,
Speaker 1: you know, rumored to be, uh. And I did that
Speaker 1: for a while, and that kind of morphed into other
Speaker 1: sports books, mostly still online off shore, and I played
Speaker 1: them for a while. I got involved. I was I
Speaker 1: was always a big prop better back in that time,
Speaker 1: and I learned the hard way that sports books don't
Speaker 1: like prop betters. But I was still you know, still
Speaker 1: profitable with it, and I enjoyed it a whole bunch.
Speaker 1: I was still doing a lot of casino a P stuff,
Speaker 1: ap advantage player uh things, and and you know, I
Speaker 1: enjoyed that whole lifestyle. And at one point I decided,
Speaker 1: you know, I can do this full time as my
Speaker 1: you know, primary source of income. I did. And then
Speaker 1: around two thousand ten, we got word that New Jersey
Speaker 1: was looking to legalize sports betting. I said, oh great,
Speaker 1: I will go headlong into sports betting. I will be
Speaker 1: ready for this when the you know, Atlantic City is
Speaker 1: gonna have sports betting. We didn't even really think about
Speaker 1: online sports betting at that time. And in two thousand
Speaker 1: and eleven they passed the law and it was you know,
Speaker 1: full steam ahead, and then the Leaves got involved and
Speaker 1: it went into court for the next seven years or so.
Speaker 1: So in that time I was ready at any point
Speaker 1: to you know, be at the front of the line
Speaker 1: to make my first sports bet in New Jersey, and
Speaker 1: it took much longer. And during that time I kind
Speaker 1: of got involved with learning about the regulation process and
Speaker 1: the legalization process and what's involved with the court fights.
Speaker 1: And I guess I got that ten thousand hours of
Speaker 1: experience in the legalization of sports betting, and that's how
Speaker 1: I've become a de facto expert on it. I don't
Speaker 1: like to consider myself an expert. I still have to
Speaker 1: do a lot of research with it to keep up
Speaker 1: with all the rules and regulations. But that's the path
Speaker 1: from about to present day. Yeah, I mean, you certainly
Speaker 1: are an expert in man effect. When you were when
Speaker 1: you visited the south Point. I want to say about
Speaker 1: a year ago. Don't hold me to that. But some
Speaker 1: sometime around then and I sort of asked you, I go,
Speaker 1: what do you think the subject would be that if
Speaker 1: when you came on the show, that you would talk
Speaker 1: about that was sort of the go to thing for you.
Speaker 1: And I was a little surprised by that. I was like, Wow,
Speaker 1: you really are super into that. I want to get
Speaker 1: into some of the nuts and bolts of, uh, your
Speaker 1: thoughts on how we've done post legalization, because I'm curious
Speaker 1: from a macro standpoint, how how someone like you would
Speaker 1: view it with a step back, um, if you could
Speaker 1: go back even further, like when you were a kid, Jack,
Speaker 1: do you remember a moment or moments. Maybe it was
Speaker 1: an eight, Maybe it was someone who sort of steered
Speaker 1: you towards it where you were where it was like
Speaker 1: your first taste of gambling, and you're like, oh, this
Speaker 1: feels it's like a fitting, you know, my hand fitting
Speaker 1: in a glove. You know, I got I got two
Speaker 1: points for you there. Gil. Actually, when I was young,
Speaker 1: I used to hear about Atlantic City. We had my
Speaker 1: family had a place at the Jersey Shore about thirty
Speaker 1: miles south of Atlantic City, and all the commercials would
Speaker 1: always be for Atlantic City, and I'd get the jingles
Speaker 1: in my head and I never really understood what Atlantic
Speaker 1: City was all about. And of course that was the
Speaker 1: mid eighties, and that was like the you know, the
Speaker 1: real boom boom period of Atlantic City. Anything was you know,
Speaker 1: happening there in Atlantic City. And I've always had that
Speaker 1: miss mystique about it. And when I turned eighteen, which
Speaker 1: is still below the legal gambling age, uh, one of
Speaker 1: the things my friends and I used to do is
Speaker 1: we'd go down and we'd hang out in the casinos
Speaker 1: in Atlantic City. Not on the casino floor, because you know,
Speaker 1: we usually get busted into that. We just hanging around
Speaker 1: in the casino hotels, sit in the lobby, act like
Speaker 1: we're somebody sitting in the lobby of us big fancy hotel.
Speaker 1: I don't know. It's things you did in the early
Speaker 1: nineties and New Jersey, I don't know. But but here's
Speaker 1: the second thing, and this is actually more interesting, is
Speaker 1: as a kid, I was big into computers. I was
Speaker 1: a bit of a computer nerd. And there used to
Speaker 1: be this show on the local PBS channel called Computer
Speaker 1: Chronicles and Computer chronicles was I don't know. It was
Speaker 1: about a half hour show talking about uh sports betting
Speaker 1: or not, started talking about computer issues in general, and
Speaker 1: one of the episodes they had on this guy who
Speaker 1: had written a program that could manage the betting lines
Speaker 1: for Las Vegas casinos. And that person was a fairly
Speaker 1: young Roxy Roxburrow. He had the reddish hair and so um.
Speaker 1: Even though I had no real exposure to spending at
Speaker 1: the time, I remembered that episode for some reason. And
Speaker 1: it's actually to the point that, you know, I've actually
Speaker 1: talked to Roxy about it and said, you know, when
Speaker 1: I was eight or nine years old, I knew about you,
Speaker 1: even though I didn't really know what you were doing
Speaker 1: or who you were. So that was kind of an
Speaker 1: early influence in some subtle way. Isn't that amazing how
Speaker 1: how certain things make an impression on you and you
Speaker 1: can't really explain it. Have you yet to meet Roxy
Speaker 1: face to face, by the way, because you guys would
Speaker 1: get along splendidly, we've never met face to face. In fact,
Speaker 1: I was actually alt in Vegas the last time he
Speaker 1: was on your show, and I didn't realize it was
Speaker 1: gonna be on, and I if I would have known,
Speaker 1: I would come down to the studio and stood there
Speaker 1: by the window. But um, I we get to meet
Speaker 1: face to faceure zone. Yeah, pressing on the window. Uh oh,
Speaker 1: that's right. I do remember that you were saying, was
Speaker 1: it was a near miss? Okay? And then, by the way,
Speaker 1: on Twitter, you could be followed at cap Jack two
Speaker 1: thousand for those who are listening, one of the great
Speaker 1: follows in the sports betting industry. Always interesting. How did
Speaker 1: you get the name? I guess it's incumbent upon me
Speaker 1: to ask this, how did you go with Captain Jack Andrews?
Speaker 1: Because that is not your real name. You are not
Speaker 1: a captain as it were, no no military service, unfortunately.
Speaker 1: So I was signing up for a website back in
Speaker 1: the late nineties, member I was talking about card counting
Speaker 1: and there was this website b J twenty one. It
Speaker 1: still exists, and when I signed up, it was the
Speaker 1: kind of the de facto um community for card counters
Speaker 1: at the time, and they had a brief question there.
Speaker 1: You had to pick an alias to use on the site.
Speaker 1: You didn't want to use your real name, obviously, and
Speaker 1: in ten seconds of thought, I thought Blackjack Jack, Captain
Speaker 1: Jack at the time, I was a Billy Joel fan,
Speaker 1: and you know, I ten seconds of thought came up
Speaker 1: with Captain Jack. It's stuck ever since. Uh. And then,
Speaker 1: of course people know me by my avatar on Twitter. Uh.
Speaker 1: And that's actually I did a Google search one day
Speaker 1: of Captain Jack trying to find an avatar, and of
Speaker 1: course we got Captain Jack Sparrow from Pirates of the Caribbean. Uh.
Speaker 1: You know, we got the Billy Joel song the Piano
Speaker 1: Man album. And I scrolled and scrolled and came across
Speaker 1: there's this uh, large black rapper from I think he
Speaker 1: was originally from Germany, but he was popular in the Caribbean,
Speaker 1: and his name was Captain Jack and he were this
Speaker 1: military costume and his red hat and there were a
Speaker 1: lot of publicity fixture pictures of him from the mid nineties.
Speaker 1: And so I said, oh, this is perfect, you know.
Speaker 1: So that's what I've always used since then, and it's
Speaker 1: it's just an inside joke at this point. Yeah, people
Speaker 1: watching on Visa com and the Visa app might be
Speaker 1: startled to see that you do not, in fact look
Speaker 1: like the the avatar photo. So you you are an
Speaker 1: advantage player. You have always been one that is what
Speaker 1: you strive to be in whatever it is that you bet,
Speaker 1: So is it is it to follow then? Or am
Speaker 1: I too? Then logically go to the next point, which
Speaker 1: is during this pandemic when it's Belarusian soccer and soccer
Speaker 1: and Nicaragua and table tennis and that sort of thing.
Speaker 1: E sports sims on Madden that you are not betting
Speaker 1: any of the above. Is there something you found a
Speaker 1: bet or what's your day to day life these days? Yeah, Gail,
Speaker 1: that's that's right. Uh, there's really nothing to be had
Speaker 1: at this point. Uh. You know, even if I did
Speaker 1: the research to look into Belarusian soccer and ping pong
Speaker 1: and all that, the betting limits aren't high enough right
Speaker 1: now for me, it wouldn't be worth the time to
Speaker 1: do the research to bet, you know, two limits on
Speaker 1: these sports. So yeah, I've just been you know, not
Speaker 1: doing sports betting for a while. And the first week
Speaker 1: was really hard. Uh, you know, there was a it
Speaker 1: was a little bit of withdrawal symptoms going on here.
Speaker 1: But since then it's you know, eased into it, and
Speaker 1: I've kind of enjoyed not having to wake up and
Speaker 1: you know, rush to the computer and look at the
Speaker 1: lines every day. It's It's been a little bit of
Speaker 1: a release me too. I chose to view it as
Speaker 1: sort of like a good thing here. The universe sort
Speaker 1: of helped us out in whatever way it decided it
Speaker 1: would I I I choose to view it that way
Speaker 1: as well. So the NFL Draft nothing either, did you
Speaker 1: dabble there? I actually did bet the NFL Draft for
Speaker 1: the first time in years, probably in ever. I'm usually
Speaker 1: betting baseball at that time in late April or I'm
Speaker 1: wrapping up my NBA season, so I've never really paid
Speaker 1: much attention to the draft. However, this year I did.
Speaker 1: At the end of March, I decided to just do
Speaker 1: some line shopping. I decided to just look around, see
Speaker 1: I knew the sharp books on props, and I kind
Speaker 1: of played against their lines and found some weak lines.
Speaker 1: And and actually, I'll have to admit I stepped in
Speaker 1: a trap that you warned people about, the Clavon Chasson trap. Um.
Speaker 1: I bet total linebackers in the first round under four
Speaker 1: and a half. There were four pure linebackers taken, and
Speaker 1: then Chason was taken by the Jaguars, and he is
Speaker 1: a edge rusher in a four three defense. He's alignment
Speaker 1: in a three or four defense. He's a linebacker. One
Speaker 1: book rated it as win, saying, oh, he's alignement, and
Speaker 1: one book rated it as a loss saying he's a linebacker.
Speaker 1: And that book won't seem to change their mind. We've
Speaker 1: gone back and forth and you know, so predictable, Jack,
Speaker 1: so predictable. You just knew that was going to be
Speaker 1: a road bump for somebody. I'm sorry that it happened
Speaker 1: to you. So listen what you're doing now and for
Speaker 1: you know cutting too today. Um, you are doing a
Speaker 1: YouTube series and it is really about make if I
Speaker 1: could just put one big sense on it, on one umbrella,
Speaker 1: it is about making people better. Better's e er o
Speaker 1: r um sports betting, education, if you will. And before
Speaker 1: we get even before we even get into the topics
Speaker 1: and some of the things you're doing, I just want
Speaker 1: to I just want to commend you because over the years,
Speaker 1: and I've done a podcast now for almost a decade
Speaker 1: and when people last of it years now everybody has
Speaker 1: a podcast, but back in the day, there were very few,
Speaker 1: and when people would ask, you know, what is it
Speaker 1: if you I'm doing a podcast like any any notes
Speaker 1: of advice that you give and the very you know.
Speaker 1: I would only give two bits of advice because I
Speaker 1: was like, I listen, I don't know anything. You could
Speaker 1: be the greatest podcaster who's ever been. But the two
Speaker 1: things that I think I do know are, you want
Speaker 1: to get the technology right. You want to make sure
Speaker 1: it sounds good, um before anything, because you will lose
Speaker 1: more than of your people right off the top of
Speaker 1: it doesn't sound good. And the other thing is you
Speaker 1: have to prepare to be good because if you're good,
Speaker 1: people are going to want and expect you to put
Speaker 1: out content on a regular basis, and it sort of
Speaker 1: takes over your life. May I just say that what
Speaker 1: you are doing on YouTube, sir, is I and I'm
Speaker 1: and you may object to this, but I'm gonna make it.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna do something with hyperbole here. Perhaps I think
Speaker 1: it is the best innovation, at least in our little
Speaker 1: corner of the world, that there's ever been. You are
Speaker 1: doing a spectacular job with the technology. You have figured
Speaker 1: out how to take phone calls. How long did that
Speaker 1: whole process take for you? Like, how long before you
Speaker 1: were ready to actually put something out there? Well, thank you,
Speaker 1: Gil that is high praise from you. I really appreciate that.
Speaker 1: I actually have had this idea for about a year
Speaker 1: and a half, probably since late two thousand eighteen, been
Speaker 1: working at this, been trying to find a way to
Speaker 1: make it work. And it was really paralysis by analysis
Speaker 1: for me because I would I'd make these videos and
Speaker 1: I just wouldn't want to put the content out there,
Speaker 1: and I'd nitpick little things and it just was it
Speaker 1: wasn't up to my standard. And then the pandemic hit
Speaker 1: and I had more time on my hands, and people
Speaker 1: started talking about this Zoom product, right, and you started
Speaker 1: hearing all these things about Zoom, and I said, oh,
Speaker 1: you know, I've used Zoom a little bit. Let me
Speaker 1: look into that. And I said, oh, look, there's the
Speaker 1: ability to create a webinar. Uh. You know, I could
Speaker 1: do a webinar where people could just attend live and
Speaker 1: that would get me over my paralysis. I would just
Speaker 1: basically go live and turn on the camera and talk
Speaker 1: and maybe do a power point presentation on the side
Speaker 1: of it. So that was kind of the genesis of it,
Speaker 1: of this kind of iteration of what I'm doing, and
Speaker 1: it worked and that kind of got me over that
Speaker 1: stage fright in terms of the prerecorded videos as well.
Speaker 1: So I put out one prerecorded video. I got another
Speaker 1: one coming out later this week. And they're very time intensive,
Speaker 1: you know. I said that the first one I did,
Speaker 1: it took me forty hours of actual labor to create
Speaker 1: that video, seventeen minute video. And you know that's not
Speaker 1: sustainable if you're a professional sports better doing forty hours
Speaker 1: of anything else is not sustainable. Yeah, And I imagine
Speaker 1: when sports comes back, it may it may change how
Speaker 1: often you put these out. I want to get into
Speaker 1: I gotta take a break here, I apologize. I want
Speaker 1: to get into some of the topics that you've covered, uh,
Speaker 1: from something as simple as five ways you can trim
Speaker 1: the house edge which might not be simple as others,
Speaker 1: to modeling. Coming back with Captain Jack right here on
Speaker 1: a numbers game of Visa v Sports petting up. Welcome
Speaker 1: back to a Numbers game with Gil Alexander. A numbers
Speaker 1: game here at Visa and proudly brought to you by
Speaker 1: man escaped dot com. Man Escape dot com as the
Speaker 1: tools for your family jewels, you can get off and
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Speaker 1: That's off at man Escaped dot com with promo code
Speaker 1: v S I N. It's Gill Alexander live in San Francisco.
Speaker 1: Captain Jack Andrews kind enough to join us UH for
Speaker 1: the hour and maybe beyond in fact from somewhere at
Speaker 1: an undisclosed location and UH in New Jersey. Uh, Jack,
Speaker 1: I wanna point out, and by the way, for those
Speaker 1: who don't know, you can follow Jack on Twitter at
Speaker 1: cap Jack two thousand, pro better consumer advocate for the
Speaker 1: sports book industry. This is a quote, may I quote
Speaker 1: something from this UH piece that was done about you
Speaker 1: at us BET. I believe it was written by Eric Raskin,
Speaker 1: and I think this is a by the way, he
Speaker 1: did a wonderful job with this piece about you. But
Speaker 1: here's a quote from you which I think sort of
Speaker 1: covers it all the sort of place that you're coming
Speaker 1: from with all this quote, we need to flatten the
Speaker 1: curve when it comes to sports betting losses. If we
Speaker 1: make consumers dollars last longer, we can have a more
Speaker 1: sustainable sports betting industry, one where sports books don't have
Speaker 1: to fear sharp money as much because liquidity won't dry up.
Speaker 1: Unquote explain that to someone who might have landed on
Speaker 1: this more of a novice better and it's gonna say
Speaker 1: what does he mean by that? Well, right now, we
Speaker 1: have a situation where sports books are just trying to
Speaker 1: acquire customers in mass as much as they can. Marketing
Speaker 1: spend is through the roof when with a lot of
Speaker 1: these new s its books, and as a result, they're
Speaker 1: getting these these sports bettors in the door that are
Speaker 1: are fresh into sports betting or or they just have
Speaker 1: a recreational slant to it, and they're being encouraged to
Speaker 1: make bad bets. Uh. You know you always see on
Speaker 1: Twitter sports book promote like, hey, this guy just hit
Speaker 1: a nine team parlay. Well, you know what the odds
Speaker 1: of hitting a nine team parlay or minuscule. The compound
Speaker 1: house sets that you're playing into when you're betting a
Speaker 1: high team parlay like that is massive. It's a bad bet.
Speaker 1: And when you encourage people to make these bad bets,
Speaker 1: basically what you're doing is you're accelerating their loss because
Speaker 1: the natural progression of any better is you're going to
Speaker 1: chase your losses. So if you make a five team
Speaker 1: parlay and it loses, the next time, you're trying to
Speaker 1: make a seven team parlay to make up the difference,
Speaker 1: and then a nine team parlay, and you know, you
Speaker 1: can see how it would go. So we're all very
Speaker 1: familiar with these curves lately, unfortunately, and actually it has
Speaker 1: a good analogy to sports betting because a lot of
Speaker 1: sports betters are coming into sports betting and they're in
Speaker 1: basically a really sharp curve. As if we had never
Speaker 1: done any of this social distancing, we all saw what
Speaker 1: that curve look like. Well, that's what a lot of
Speaker 1: these sports bedders are in right now. When they come
Speaker 1: into sports betting, they just lose their money fast, They
Speaker 1: flash out, and they're probably done until maybe next NFL season,
Speaker 1: or uh, maybe they're done forever. Maybe they just sour
Speaker 1: to the whole concept of sports betting. But if we
Speaker 1: would let them sustain their money a little longer. In
Speaker 1: other words, you know, we all know sports betting is
Speaker 1: not easy to win at. And I'm not saying that
Speaker 1: I can create winners, but I am saying I can
Speaker 1: help you lose your money slower and make it last
Speaker 1: longer and hopefully increase your entertainment value of your sports
Speaker 1: betting as a hobby. As a recreation as a side
Speaker 1: hustle and make it less longer to the point where
Speaker 1: you can replenish your sports betting bankroll organically. And the
Speaker 1: sports books would benefit from that because there'll be more
Speaker 1: sports bedders around, people engaged longer, people enjoying it more,
Speaker 1: and there would be It would be better for the
Speaker 1: sharp arps because now our action kind of hides a
Speaker 1: little bit more inside this massive liquidity that we have
Speaker 1: with sports betting, and will be better for the States
Speaker 1: because they're having a more sustainable product that would have
Speaker 1: higher liquidity, which means higher tax dollars because of increased turnover.
Speaker 1: There might be even less problem gambling in this way
Speaker 1: because people wouldn't feel so manic about how their results
Speaker 1: have been in sports betting. And of course it benefits
Speaker 1: the operators because now there's just you know, more engaged
Speaker 1: people into their product. So you see, it's the tide
Speaker 1: that lifts all boats. Uh, It's just the fight is
Speaker 1: to try to get everyone to realize that and come
Speaker 1: together and and work together to create that. And and
Speaker 1: how tough is that, Jack? We only have sort of
Speaker 1: like forty five seconds here for a response, But you
Speaker 1: make the point that sports books themselves should want that
Speaker 1: as well. Is it realistic to think that that won't
Speaker 1: trump agreed for some of these shops? You know that, Gil,
Speaker 1: That's the exact point. A lot of these sports books
Speaker 1: believe there is no end to the to the square
Speaker 1: money that is in sports betting, and they may be right.
Speaker 1: I'd like to believe in a world where that's not
Speaker 1: correct and where you know, they want to sustain the people.
Speaker 1: But it's it's gonna be tough to tell. Yeah, No,
Speaker 1: I'd like to. I'd like to believe in in that
Speaker 1: worldview as well. On it. UM. And obviously some shops
Speaker 1: do these you know, some shops have a totally different
Speaker 1: business model than others. Um. You know we've we've mentioned
Speaker 1: them on this show many times. Which are the business
Speaker 1: models that we're probably talking about right now? No need
Speaker 1: to sort of rehash that, um, but it's fascinating. We'll
Speaker 1: get back into some of the content that you're putting
Speaker 1: out on YouTube right now, uh, and get into your
Speaker 1: thoughts about the industry itself as you step back as
Speaker 1: someone who knows it better than almost anybody. How have
Speaker 1: we done coming back, Captain Jack Andrews right here on
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Speaker 1: Skill Alexander. It is Captain Jack Andrews joining us this
Speaker 1: more to talk about just his evolution, how he became
Speaker 1: the guy and the better that he became. Um, Jack,
Speaker 1: let's talk about sports betting media or content that is
Speaker 1: available out there, whether ESPN, whether Visa, whether other outlets
Speaker 1: who uh really are immersed in sports betting. Um, what
Speaker 1: was the niche that you were trying to fill? In
Speaker 1: other words, what what was out there where You're like, well,
Speaker 1: I kind of like that, I kind of don't like that.
Speaker 1: This is what I'm really passionate about doing. Yeah, there
Speaker 1: was when I would search for sports betting content and
Speaker 1: you know, I'm one of these guys that I'll eat
Speaker 1: up anything that's out there. I'll read anything, I'll watch
Speaker 1: anything just to see if I can find that one
Speaker 1: little nugget of information in there that I didn't know before.
Speaker 1: And I would search YouTube and the content was, yeah,
Speaker 1: it was you know, there was a lot of tents
Speaker 1: out there trying to sell you picks, and a lot
Speaker 1: of the content wasn't wasn't evergreen, it was it was
Speaker 1: people that we're making, uh you know, picks or or
Speaker 1: analysis of games gone by that you know you didn't
Speaker 1: want to watch again because it was irrelevant. Uh. And
Speaker 1: then there was some there was some decent modeling content
Speaker 1: or how to use this and that, but it was
Speaker 1: all a little bit stale. It was a little bit slow,
Speaker 1: dry monotone. Uh. You know, the cameras pointed up the
Speaker 1: guy's nose and you see the ceiling in the background.
Speaker 1: It's does It's not good video. So I said, I
Speaker 1: can do better than this. Even if my content isn't
Speaker 1: smarter than this, I can at least make it more entertaining,
Speaker 1: more engaging for the viewer. And that's what I kind
Speaker 1: of set out to do. And it's store an evolutionary
Speaker 1: goal here. Uh. You know, it's not to the point
Speaker 1: that I exactly want to have it yet, but you
Speaker 1: know we're on that path. Uh. Let me just commend
Speaker 1: you because again, some of the topics that I of
Speaker 1: the videos that I have not seen yet. Five ways
Speaker 1: you can trim the house, edge shop lines, avoid arlas
Speaker 1: and futures, don't pay for picks, don't chase fine promos.
Speaker 1: You did one on the five hacks to make sports
Speaker 1: betting easier. You talked about the ones you did about modeling,
Speaker 1: which is pretty in the weeds stuff, but I think
Speaker 1: has a real real lure for a lot of people
Speaker 1: who are trying to do this UH in the right
Speaker 1: way or not in the right way. Maybe maybe that's
Speaker 1: a loaded phrase. Maybe just from that perspective, they decided
Speaker 1: that's how they want to approach sports betting. Maybe you
Speaker 1: and I would argue that's the right way, but others
Speaker 1: might might differ on that. The one that I did
Speaker 1: get a chance to watch in its entirety UH is
Speaker 1: the is the webcast you did via zoom with the
Speaker 1: Rufus Peabody and Spanky, who are two very prominent bettors.
Speaker 1: They approach betting in very different ways. Rufus comes from
Speaker 1: an origination standpoint handicapping UH. Spanky is a market guy
Speaker 1: who looks for inefficiencies in the market and is really
Speaker 1: really tapped in, and that's an under Damon has a
Speaker 1: network where he is really expert in that approach to
Speaker 1: UH winning at sports betting in a way that mere
Speaker 1: mortals would take years to get to. UM. But they're
Speaker 1: fascinating guys, and I just want to say not only
Speaker 1: were they super honest, as as they tend to be
Speaker 1: when they're on any sort of sports betting vehicle, but
Speaker 1: the way you did it where you took phone calls,
Speaker 1: you took you took calls. Uh, you read some questions
Speaker 1: and you logged it, which is not an innovative thing
Speaker 1: because some people do it with podcasts too, But there
Speaker 1: was something about the the platform of YouTube that when
Speaker 1: you did it that way, I was constantly engaged with it.
Speaker 1: But I could not commend you and those two guys
Speaker 1: more for that ninety minutes. I know you wanted to
Speaker 1: wrap it up at the ninety minute mark. I could
Speaker 1: have listened for another ninety minutes. Yeah. Well, uh, there
Speaker 1: was a bathroom break that was needed by one of
Speaker 1: the participants and that was That was largely why that
Speaker 1: ended at the ninety minute mark. But you know, Gil
Speaker 1: that that was great. That was amazing to do. I'm
Speaker 1: lucky enough to call both of those guys friends, and uh,
Speaker 1: there's there's a real synergy when the three of us
Speaker 1: get together and talk, and I think it was great
Speaker 1: for people to see that. And you know, they both
Speaker 1: did such a great job of describing their process because
Speaker 1: they do the same thing, but they do it vastly
Speaker 1: different and that's something that hasn't really been explored in
Speaker 1: terms of looking into sports bettors. So it was it
Speaker 1: was great to kind of have them together. My only
Speaker 1: regret is that I set the bar away too high
Speaker 1: for the next time I try to do something like that.
Speaker 1: How do you top those two? It's gonna be tough.
Speaker 1: You fixed, That's right, You fix yourself. Do you do
Speaker 1: you ever have this thought when you're doing something that good?
Speaker 1: Because I struggle with it on a daily basis. Right,
Speaker 1: I have a platform, and I'm lucky enough to have
Speaker 1: a platform to do a show on sports betting five
Speaker 1: times a week. I am keenly aware of that sometimes,
Speaker 1: and this is a truism, maybe it's goes beyond sports
Speaker 1: betting into other areas of life. Sometimes the smarter it
Speaker 1: is that you of the of the content that you do,
Speaker 1: the smarter it gets sometimes windows down the audience. And
Speaker 1: so if my goal on the show is to cast
Speaker 1: the widest net, there are choices I have to make,
Speaker 1: right my constitution may want to do the smartest thing
Speaker 1: every day, but it may not cast the widest net
Speaker 1: and may not be appreciated. Do you ever have that
Speaker 1: in the same way, do you ever have that thought
Speaker 1: when you're doing stuff or do you not? Like, no,
Speaker 1: this is just me absolutely. Uh. You know, my my
Speaker 1: webcast that has garnered the least amount of views is
Speaker 1: one where I did the State of the States, where
Speaker 1: I went through all the states that have legalized sports betting.
Speaker 1: It's something I'm interested in. It's it's right in my wheelhouse, U,
Speaker 1: but not everybody's a cup of tea. Whereas something where
Speaker 1: I'm giving just five tips to trim the house edge
Speaker 1: has a greater impact on a wider audience and is
Speaker 1: more alluring. But it's also, you know, something that is
Speaker 1: kind of not the cutting edge content that I want
Speaker 1: to be doing. Case in point, this week, my webcast
Speaker 1: is going to be tax and retirement strategies for gamblers.
Speaker 1: I know that, man, I know that's not going to
Speaker 1: be a great audience. But the thing is, I want
Speaker 1: to put out this prerecorded video this this second in
Speaker 1: my series of making a modeler, and I know I
Speaker 1: need a little bit more time to focus on that
Speaker 1: this week, So I'm kind of doing another thing that's
Speaker 1: going to come to second nature to me. It's not
Speaker 1: going to be as large an audience. It's still gonna
Speaker 1: be informative. I can guarantee you it's gonna be informative.
Speaker 1: But I needed to kind of balance things out this week,
Speaker 1: and so I decided to do this UM, Tax and
Speaker 1: Retirement webcast. But you know what, Jack, I will I
Speaker 1: will listen to it. I'm gonna listen to all of
Speaker 1: them because you have about eight total here um, one
Speaker 1: of which is prerecorded. The others that are that are webinars.
Speaker 1: I will listen to that topic because it has not
Speaker 1: been covered anywhere else. And they're so evergreen and they
Speaker 1: will live in perpetuity. Uh, and so that's what's so
Speaker 1: great about them. We'll come back more when Captain Jack
Speaker 1: Andrews next on a Numbers Game and Visa these sports
Speaker 1: betting network. Welcome back to a Numbers Game with Jill Alexander.
Speaker 1: Now is the time. I'm a Visa Plus subscriber. It
Speaker 1: is free. You won't have to decide what you want
Speaker 1: to do, pay or cancel until at least one of
Speaker 1: the major sports returns. Just go to Visa dot Com
Speaker 1: slash subscribe to sign up. That is Visa dot Com
Speaker 1: slash subscribe to Kill Alexander and San Francisco Captain Jack
Speaker 1: Andrews in New Jersey. So Jack, when this is past,
Speaker 1: the pandemic has gone to the other side, sports books
Speaker 1: are reopened, and you know, normalcy in some form, you
Speaker 1: know approaches. What is it that you are most looking
Speaker 1: forward to betting on? What's the sport that you believe
Speaker 1: you have the edge in that you're like off, I
Speaker 1: could just pick one, it would be this one. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's a good question. I would you know, I'd have
Speaker 1: to say I missed baseball. Even though I had come
Speaker 1: into the two thousand and twenty season swearing myself that
Speaker 1: I was going to bet baseball far less this year
Speaker 1: than in past years, I've kind of missed it at
Speaker 1: this point. I just I just really missed the pace
Speaker 1: of the action. Baseball is one of those sports where
Speaker 1: you can bet just about every game, and you can
Speaker 1: keep up with every game at the same time, and
Speaker 1: so there's something luring about betting baseball that I miss
Speaker 1: at least certain parts of betting baseball. Do you think
Speaker 1: we're getting it back? I am so skeptical, man, I
Speaker 1: don't know, Gil, It's it's almost depressing to think about.
Speaker 1: I saw a story today that the NFL is saying
Speaker 1: that they may start postponed by a couple of weeks
Speaker 1: at best, so that that really puts a damper on things. Um,
Speaker 1: it's it's almost not worth speculating at this point. But
Speaker 1: I'm really hopeful to get something this summer. I agree.
Speaker 1: I'm I'm out of the speculation game because you know,
Speaker 1: I've said from the beginning, as I know you have,
Speaker 1: you had your light in the sand that you drew.
Speaker 1: My thing is, I'm forgetting about all these other sports
Speaker 1: until football. I think college is delayed. I think NFL
Speaker 1: is our shot at getting in on time. We shall
Speaker 1: see U. One of the topics you talked about with
Speaker 1: Rufus Spanky, which you know is close to those of
Speaker 1: us who are in Las Vegas under normal circumstances, is
Speaker 1: the impact that circus sports has made on the industry,
Speaker 1: and you guys banded about I think was an interesting
Speaker 1: take on it, which and I don't know that we
Speaker 1: discuss it enough on Visa because perhaps we're too close
Speaker 1: to the sun on it because those guys are our friends,
Speaker 1: Derek Stevens, Mike Palm, Matt Metcalf and everybody who does
Speaker 1: such a great job at Circa. They have been such
Speaker 1: a breath of fresh air from a philosophical standpoint. There
Speaker 1: their approach to wanting to cater to sharp betters, to
Speaker 1: their contests, which are innovative and are being copied by others.
Speaker 1: Not to mention, of course, that they're going to try
Speaker 1: to build this shangri la uh new sports book at
Speaker 1: Circle beyond what they have now at Golden Gate in
Speaker 1: the D. But um, you know, one of the worries
Speaker 1: which we don't usually talk out out loud, but you
Speaker 1: guys did, which I think is a real valid one,
Speaker 1: is can that be a sustainable business model? What say
Speaker 1: you about that? Yeah, the circuit is great. Uh, you know,
Speaker 1: I know they're working to try to come into New Jersey.
Speaker 1: I told them I will stand at the bridges and
Speaker 1: the tunnels and pay their tolls for them as they
Speaker 1: as they come into town. Um. But yeah, you know, this,
Speaker 1: this this low margin, high vovolume model that they want
Speaker 1: to do, which I think we've all kind of referred
Speaker 1: to it always as the Pinnacle model, is is going
Speaker 1: to be tough to do in a in a world
Speaker 1: where marketing spend is kind of ruling what people are
Speaker 1: using to as their barometer as to a book success.
Speaker 1: You know, we've we've seen that in New Jersey. Is
Speaker 1: it was just a big marketing free for all and
Speaker 1: nobody's thinking about profits. They're thinking about getting the biggest
Speaker 1: customer base that they can. And you know, Gil, honestly,
Speaker 1: the reason these companies want to get a big customer
Speaker 1: base is because it makes them more attractive for mergers
Speaker 1: and acquisitions. That's kind of scary as a sports better
Speaker 1: is we have a lot of options here in New Jersey,
Speaker 1: but a lot of them are actually looking at a
Speaker 1: short game, not a long game. They're looking to build
Speaker 1: up valuation so that they can sell themselves off to
Speaker 1: somebody else at a premium and and take their their
Speaker 1: golden parachute. Um. So, you know, when you see a
Speaker 1: company that comes in like Circuit, who are they have
Speaker 1: a long game vision. They want to make themselves as
Speaker 1: the market maker for the US legal sports betting market.
Speaker 1: And they're doing a fantastic job of that in Nevada.
Speaker 1: They're going to do a great job in Colorado and
Speaker 1: any other state they go to. Uh, It's it's actually
Speaker 1: up to us, the Sports Better to really support things
Speaker 1: like that because this is the sort of company we
Speaker 1: want to help propagate and to have other companies come
Speaker 1: in and say, oh, that's the model we need to do,
Speaker 1: because that's going to make it all better for for everyone,
Speaker 1: whether it be the recreational better who, like I said,
Speaker 1: is going to lose slower, or the shark who's going
Speaker 1: to have more outs to apply their action. Uh. And
Speaker 1: it makes it even better for the states to encourage
Speaker 1: action like that because it makes a more sustainable injury
Speaker 1: industry for the their state as well. Isn't that what's
Speaker 1: so interesting about this uh little corner of the world
Speaker 1: we've chosen. And you know, it's one thing from the
Speaker 1: betting side of it, if you're if you're really sharp,
Speaker 1: better part of your you know, day to day calculus
Speaker 1: is well, I could crush this one book, but I
Speaker 1: want them to exist as long as possible and extract
Speaker 1: money over time. One day it may end, but you know,
Speaker 1: part of it, it's like a game within a game there,
Speaker 1: and you're referring to sort of in the opposite direction
Speaker 1: now or not opposite direction, but just in a different
Speaker 1: way of you know, doing that with a with a
Speaker 1: model and people in circle that we know is so
Speaker 1: great for the business, and it is incumbent upon us
Speaker 1: to make that last or do everything we can to
Speaker 1: make it last as long as possible. Those kinds of
Speaker 1: decisions are made by sharp bettors every day, and I'm
Speaker 1: not sure the casual better is necessarily aware that that happens. Absolutely,
Speaker 1: you know, I can think of a lot of operators
Speaker 1: that I've taken it easy on in the past, and
Speaker 1: other ones that I probably have gone a little too
Speaker 1: aggressive with that I should have taken it easy with.
Speaker 1: It's You're right, it's a cat and mouse game. It's also, uh,
Speaker 1: there's reminded like the Nash equilibrium. You know, there's an
Speaker 1: equilibrium when it comes to sports betting. There's an optimal
Speaker 1: way to approach this, and sports bettors everywhere, sharper recreational
Speaker 1: always have to be thinking about that that equilibrium, as
Speaker 1: do the operators as well. Captain Jack andrews with us
Speaker 1: on a numbers game at Visa and uh kind enough
Speaker 1: to hang out with us today at Cap Jack two thousand.
Speaker 1: You can find his YouTube channel. I'm sure you link
Speaker 1: it out on your Twitter a lot. Is that correct? Yes,
Speaker 1: it's linked on my profile there and Twitter. Unfortunately, YouTube
Speaker 1: doesn't let me have like cap Jack two thousand, So
Speaker 1: it's it's just a long string of characters. You're better
Speaker 1: off just finding that link, So go to the Twitter
Speaker 1: get the link. You you alluded to this on your
Speaker 1: webcast with Spanky and with Rufous Peabody. I'm not sure
Speaker 1: if you elaborated on it, though, Uh that you expect
Speaker 1: more consolidation in this business. Did you mean in legalized jurisdictions?
Speaker 1: Did you mean off shore? What did you mean by that?
Speaker 1: Probably both, gil uh In. You know, I was actually
Speaker 1: saying back before this pandemic that April was going to
Speaker 1: be the start of the contraction and consolidation in New Jersey.
Speaker 1: I think there's some some books that probably are going
Speaker 1: to say, Okay, we got our stamp of approval in
Speaker 1: New Jersey. That'll be good for other states. We can
Speaker 1: pull out a New Jersey now. And you know, this
Speaker 1: is just too competitive of the market for us. We
Speaker 1: don't have the marketing spend that other books have. So
Speaker 1: I thought we were going to see some consolidation. Now
Speaker 1: with the pandemic, that may be pushed back. I think
Speaker 1: we'll still see it. In fact, we might see it
Speaker 1: in a more accelerated way. But all shore as well,
Speaker 1: you know, and the pandemic kind of force that hand
Speaker 1: is I think we're going to see some offshore books
Speaker 1: that are going to say it's not worth us trying
Speaker 1: to compete anymore. The nice thing about offshore books is
Speaker 1: there's this kind of this etiquette of how consolidation happens.
Speaker 1: For the most part, you sell yourself off to another
Speaker 1: book and they take over the liabilities, and hopefully that
Speaker 1: continues to be the case offshore, so that people aren't
Speaker 1: stuck with, you know, lost balances and and hey, I'm
Speaker 1: not saying there's any one major book or anything. I'm
Speaker 1: not naming names that are going to go under soon.
Speaker 1: I don't have any of that information. So I don't
Speaker 1: want to cause any kind of panic. But I do
Speaker 1: think that there's consolidation coming offshore as well as in
Speaker 1: some of the legal states that have been around for
Speaker 1: a year, such as New Jersey. So as far as
Speaker 1: legalization and now post legalization is maybe maybe a pandemic
Speaker 1: is the right time to take a step back and
Speaker 1: sort of assess no one is more into the weeds
Speaker 1: of how each and every state that has legalized sports
Speaker 1: setting in the different ways that they have and all
Speaker 1: the different rules that um they've decided to choose state
Speaker 1: by state. No one is more into it than you are.
Speaker 1: How has legalization gone then, like when we when we
Speaker 1: take a step back, obviously some states do it better
Speaker 1: than others. Are you you know, are you thrilled, are
Speaker 1: you okay, satisfied? Are you disappointed? Are you terribly disappointed?
Speaker 1: Like what's the what's the broad stroke on this? You
Speaker 1: had Roxy on back in the beginning of March and
Speaker 1: he said something to the effect of, it's a good
Speaker 1: thing we let New Jersey go first because they had
Speaker 1: taken the most time and preparation into this. They had
Speaker 1: about seven years to prepare for this, So it's a
Speaker 1: good thing we let them go first because they can
Speaker 1: set the example. The downside is other states didn't follow
Speaker 1: that example. So whereas in New Jersey we do have
Speaker 1: a very rich competitive industry, and I think it's good
Speaker 1: for all parties involved that there is open competition basically
Speaker 1: in New Jersey. Uh, we haven't seen that in some
Speaker 1: other states, and that's really disappointing because you know, if
Speaker 1: you're a sports better, you need outs, you need competition,
Speaker 1: you need at least a little bit of uh you know,
Speaker 1: play to shop lines with there are guys that are
Speaker 1: you know, existing in states where you have just one vendor,
Speaker 1: and that's just really not fair. And even if that
Speaker 1: vendor is the nicest, most benevolent vendor there is, there's
Speaker 1: still only one choice for the consumer and and that's
Speaker 1: just unfortunate. Uh. You know, we've we have in Colorado
Speaker 1: starting in later this week. Actually they first there's gonna
Speaker 1: be seventeen sports betting apps on day one, or at
Speaker 1: least within the first month. That's amazing, that's great. That's
Speaker 1: more than Nevada has. Yeah, so you know, there is hope.
Speaker 1: So there is states like Colorado that seemed to be
Speaker 1: getting it right. They're going to have mobile registration, They're
Speaker 1: gonna have mobile depositing and withdrawals. Uh, it's it's going
Speaker 1: to be a great state. And the best part about
Speaker 1: Colorado is you have the Nevada operators that are coming
Speaker 1: into the state and then you have the European operators
Speaker 1: that are coming into the state. And so that's gonna
Speaker 1: be the real battleground. We're gonna see kind of which
Speaker 1: model works. I have a feeling the European marketing departments
Speaker 1: will outspend the Nevada based marketing departments, which might unlevel
Speaker 1: the playing field a little bit, but we're going to
Speaker 1: see what the consumer decides to choose when they have
Speaker 1: when they're given this option between the European model and
Speaker 1: the Nevada model and real quick Jack, because we only
Speaker 1: have a few seconds, d C among the worst. Would
Speaker 1: you say d C is the worst of the of
Speaker 1: the bunch. It's so bad. You know, one day, maybe
Speaker 1: when you're back in d C, I'll come down and
Speaker 1: we can commiserate together over what's going on in that state,
Speaker 1: in that district so so bad. We'll get into uh
Speaker 1: Jack's thoughts on the town industry and what he's trying
Speaker 1: to do about it. Coming back, Jack Andrews Captain Jack
Speaker 1: on a numbers game at Visa and the Sports Betting Network.
Speaker 1: It's a numbers game with your host, Gil Alexander. Believe
Speaker 1: in as our number two of a numbers game right
Speaker 1: here at Vison Vegas. That's an Information Network series Exit
Speaker 1: Channel two oh four, Visa dot Com, the Visa b
Speaker 1: bost League game Plus it is Gil Alexander live from
Speaker 1: San Francisco. Michael Lombardi still to join us A little
Speaker 1: more though, with Captain Jack Gandrews, who has been kind
Speaker 1: enough to hang out with us this morning. Um, this
Speaker 1: is from thought Criminal. We get tweets thought criminal on Twitter.
Speaker 1: Fascinating guests today. I can't wait to listen to his stuff.
Speaker 1: Captain Jack may just be the easiest to understand and
Speaker 1: follow of all your professional gambler guests. I love his story.
Speaker 1: Great job, Gil, Well, thank you for that really great
Speaker 1: job to Jack. And I should have probably lead with
Speaker 1: something thought Criminals said there, which is, it's not just
Speaker 1: that you've managed to get the technology right. It's not
Speaker 1: just that you've managed Jack to do things I think innovatively,
Speaker 1: and that you come from this great place where you
Speaker 1: try to make better betters out of everybody. It's that
Speaker 1: you are and I strive for this every day. You
Speaker 1: speak and in a very linear fashion and logically and
Speaker 1: melding really good knowledgeable gamblers with the ability to sort
Speaker 1: of articulate and pass along information is not a huge
Speaker 1: subset of humanity. You have done it as well as anybody, sir.
Speaker 1: I'm a simple man, Gil, and I guess I just
Speaker 1: think simply, I don't know, no, but you know you're
Speaker 1: being modest but you know what I'm talking about. Like, listen,
Speaker 1: gamblers are fascinating people. And when I say fascinating, you
Speaker 1: know exactly what I'm talking about. They are eccentric, um,
Speaker 1: maybe spectrumish if I may even get there in many cases,
Speaker 1: um or just you know whatever, but the ability to
Speaker 1: sort of be both things. Look, this is not the
Speaker 1: easiest information to convey if you're trying to do it
Speaker 1: in the right way, and again, you do a spectacular
Speaker 1: job of it. So please take a bow. For God's sakes,
Speaker 1: it's I don't have to be modest on it. Thank you, Gil.
Speaker 1: And you know what, while we're having this little love
Speaker 1: fest here, I leave your show is also key for
Speaker 1: any developing sports better, aspiring sports better. You basically teach
Speaker 1: people more than any other show on this network how
Speaker 1: to become a better better, and I think you should
Speaker 1: be commended as well. So right back at you, sir, Well,
Speaker 1: for God's sakes, I didn't expect that to but thank you.
Speaker 1: I appreciate that very much. If I asked you, Jack,
Speaker 1: what is the biggest thing, and this is I didn't
Speaker 1: prepare you for this question, but it's sort of a
Speaker 1: macro question that I'm sure you've gotten and you did. Uh.
Speaker 1: One of the webcasts you did on five ways you
Speaker 1: can trim the house edge and I mentioned, uh, you
Speaker 1: listen them, shop lines, avoid parlays and futures, don't pay
Speaker 1: for picks, don't chase find promos. But what's the one
Speaker 1: thing even when you dispense that advice, what's the one
Speaker 1: thing where you're like, man, they keep making this mistake
Speaker 1: over and over again, and no matter how many times
Speaker 1: I say, it keeps happening. You know, that's a tough question, Bill,
Speaker 1: because there are many mistakes that keep being made by
Speaker 1: betters and the kind of the industry in general. I
Speaker 1: would have to say that the parlays and futures people
Speaker 1: just don't understand the math behind parlay's. It's it's compound
Speaker 1: interest people. It is basically the same reason why you
Speaker 1: know you want to invest in something is because the
Speaker 1: interest compounds over time. Well, as you add an extra
Speaker 1: leg to a parlay, and we're assuming that you do
Speaker 1: not have an advantage when you're making these individual bets
Speaker 1: into this parlay. As you add extra legs into a parlay,
Speaker 1: you're compounding the vig that's involved. So you know your
Speaker 1: standard three team parlay which pays six to one. The
Speaker 1: true odds of that are seven to one, and that's
Speaker 1: a twelve and a half percent house edge. So while
Speaker 1: we all get up in arms whenever we see a
Speaker 1: company come in and try to do minus one vague
Speaker 1: into what should be minus one ten lines, we all
Speaker 1: get up in arms about that. But at the same time,
Speaker 1: we're still betting into these three team parlays that have
Speaker 1: an oop. I think we've had have lost Jack right there, Jack,
Speaker 1: we have you back, okay, Uh, yeah, there you go, Jaguar,
Speaker 1: How my god, I got in, We got we got
Speaker 1: a lot of it in about about compounding with parlay's
Speaker 1: and I'll let you finish your thought here. Um, what
Speaker 1: I thought you were gonna go to was just a guess.
Speaker 1: I thought you were going to go to the chase
Speaker 1: because it involves human human instincts. It's it's uh, it's
Speaker 1: Gill Alexander, it's Captain Jack Andrews. It is a numbers
Speaker 1: game right here at Visa these sports betting network. Please
Speaker 1: continually thought about the parlay though you were most of
Speaker 1: the way through that, I believe. Yeah, so you know,
Speaker 1: I'm not sure where I dropped off there. I sorry.
Speaker 1: I got multiple kids at home that are doing home schooling,
Speaker 1: so sometimes the internet gets a little laggy during the
Speaker 1: school day. But the point being is you compound the
Speaker 1: interest when it comes to betting parlays, and basically it's
Speaker 1: almost double the things you complain about. So you complain
Speaker 1: about minus one fifteen lines when it should be minus
Speaker 1: one ten. But at the same time, you're betting a
Speaker 1: three team parlay a plus six hundred when it should
Speaker 1: be plus seven hundred, and that's a double digit vague
Speaker 1: that you're betting into at that point. But you know what,
Speaker 1: your point about chasing bets is something that's highly applicable
Speaker 1: to any better, even sharp better is run into that
Speaker 1: sometimes as well. Well I'll tell you why that leaps
Speaker 1: to mind for me because and again I think this
Speaker 1: is such a great point that needs to be made,
Speaker 1: can't be made enough, which is there are many ways
Speaker 1: to skin the cat in being a professional sports better.
Speaker 1: It is very difficult to skin the cat no matter
Speaker 1: how you choose it. So we just talked about Rufus
Speaker 1: being an originator Spanky who is all about the market
Speaker 1: and having just a network of outs. Then there's my
Speaker 1: buddy E who I refer to on this show all
Speaker 1: the time. Uh. He is one of the two or
Speaker 1: three most successful sports betters I know. He is neither
Speaker 1: an originator nor a guy that looks for the best
Speaker 1: price on a constant basis, even though of course he
Speaker 1: like everybody, strives for that. He is about UM doing
Speaker 1: things his own way. He watches a tremendous amount of sports.
Speaker 1: He has found different angles in sports betting to exploit.
Speaker 1: I'll leave it at that, and just is successful in
Speaker 1: his own way. But he will admit that as successful
Speaker 1: as he is, he cannot overcome the occasional chase. And
Speaker 1: so listen, no matter the successful better, negative variants will happen, Um,
Speaker 1: people will go on losing streaks and the ability We've
Speaker 1: talked about this many times before, the ability to stomach
Speaker 1: that and to overcome that and recognize just like, uh,
Speaker 1: if you go back to the M. I. T. Blackjack story,
Speaker 1: just like they would have bad stretches and realize, Nope,
Speaker 1: what we're doing gives us the statistical advantage, gives us
Speaker 1: the house edge, or at least transfers the house edge
Speaker 1: to us when we're counting cards and exploiting it the
Speaker 1: way we are a successful sports better realizes or should
Speaker 1: realize that those those stretches are going to happen. But
Speaker 1: even he says, you know, as much as he can
Speaker 1: rationalize it in his brain, our human brains are just
Speaker 1: the way we're wired. It's like, even though we know
Speaker 1: that rationally, we still can't help ourselves, even the most
Speaker 1: successful ones can't. So for me, that's always the answer.
Speaker 1: But I'm always I'm curious because that that, to me
Speaker 1: speaks to a human instinct, like it's so deep in
Speaker 1: our wiring that we can't control that in a way
Speaker 1: that maybe some of the others we have a better
Speaker 1: out of controlling. But maybe I'm wrong. Now I totally
Speaker 1: agree with that, Gil, And you know I've seen that
Speaker 1: from questions I get during these webcasts. A lot of
Speaker 1: people are like, you know, how do I handle it?
Speaker 1: If I lose five games in a row? Do I
Speaker 1: bet more on the sixth game? You get all of it,
Speaker 1: So it's it's definitely learning how to win is paramount,
Speaker 1: but learning how to lose is just as important for
Speaker 1: a lot of betters. Alright. So we mentioned in one
Speaker 1: of those UH five ways you can turn the house
Speaker 1: edge and your specific UH YouTube series webcast about that topic,
Speaker 1: don't pay for picks, And that's something that uh, you know, look,
Speaker 1: this industry has been rightfully um you know, criticized for
Speaker 1: and you know that the town industry has been largely,
Speaker 1: with some exception, right, with a few exceptions, um has
Speaker 1: largely been a seedy side of this industry. You are actually,
Speaker 1: along with Rufus, Peabody, your buddy and my buddy, uh,
Speaker 1: you are doing something about it, or at least have
Speaker 1: plans to do something about right. So we realized that
Speaker 1: Rufus and I realized together that we had a common
Speaker 1: vision when it came to the future of the sports
Speaker 1: betting industry, and we said, the consumer needs a voice.
Speaker 1: So when we see sports being legalized in all of
Speaker 1: these states, there's there's always these uh, legislative hearings, right,
Speaker 1: and they hear from the operators, and they hear from
Speaker 1: the anti gambling people, and they hear from uh, you know,
Speaker 1: the sports leagues, but they never hear from the consumer.
Speaker 1: And the consumer needs a voice in all of this. So,
Speaker 1: you know, Rufus has had some dealings that we've we've
Speaker 1: all heard about with you know, a contest where he
Speaker 1: kind of got the short end of the stick, and
Speaker 1: you know that motivated him to want to put together
Speaker 1: a organization. So back in November or so, we decided
Speaker 1: we'd register the domain name of American Betters Coalition dot org.
Speaker 1: We're on Twitter at American Better and basically we want
Speaker 1: to be this consumer organization to represent the consumer as
Speaker 1: well as train the consumer, educate the consumer when it
Speaker 1: comes to not only things like buying picks, but also
Speaker 1: when your state is thinking of legalizing sports betting. We'll
Speaker 1: read through the regulations and we'll let you know what
Speaker 1: the regulations say because a lot of these regulations some
Speaker 1: of the states are coming up with they're not the
Speaker 1: best gill. I mean, they have some some weird angles
Speaker 1: to them. You know, the example being Tennessee where they
Speaker 1: mandated a a whole percentage for the for the sports
Speaker 1: betting industry, meaning the sports betting industry had to reach
Speaker 1: a mandatory hold that it was inorganic, it was not
Speaker 1: what would basically come about from regular sports betting. So
Speaker 1: we go through all these things, and you know, we're
Speaker 1: still a work in progress. This pandemic has unfortunately kind
Speaker 1: of slowed the progress. We We have plans to be
Speaker 1: a nonprofit organization. We plan to you know, represent the
Speaker 1: consumer in in everything in sports betting. Unfortunately, we've had
Speaker 1: to take our foot off the gas pedal right now,
Speaker 1: but I think we're gonna have some information out in
Speaker 1: the coming weeks here to let consumers note we're still here.
Speaker 1: We still plan to do this. It's just the timetable
Speaker 1: has unfortunately stretched out a lot. Further understood by the
Speaker 1: way I may step in it right here. And I
Speaker 1: failed to ask this if Rufus when he was on
Speaker 1: at did that Draft King's Sports betting Championship thing ever
Speaker 1: get resolved for him or were not allowed to talk
Speaker 1: about that. I don't believe it has been resolved. Okay,
Speaker 1: Well said jack Well said, alright, so baseball you missed
Speaker 1: the most. Aren't you a basketball? Don't you? Isn't basketball
Speaker 1: above the rest of it for you though? Aren't you
Speaker 1: that primarily? Yeah? NBA is where I've had probably had
Speaker 1: my best success over the past six seven, eight years. Uh.
Speaker 1: You know, the funny thing is is I got started
Speaker 1: with NBA betting on props back way back when, and
Speaker 1: I found one day I found us words book off
Speaker 1: shore that was offering um props on fast baked fast
Speaker 1: break points and points in the paint, which is a
Speaker 1: kind of a you know, an obscure stat but you
Speaker 1: can see it in the box score. So I built
Speaker 1: a quick model about fast break points and points in
Speaker 1: the paint because they seem to be very um, you know,
Speaker 1: you can model those because not all teams run a
Speaker 1: high temple offense. Not all teams have a big man
Speaker 1: down low that gets a lot of points in the paint,
Speaker 1: and I don't. I did fantastically well at that, and
Speaker 1: that kind of launched into my NBA betting and so
Speaker 1: I've yeah, I've focused on NBA totals for the past
Speaker 1: uh you know, seven or eight years. It's gone very
Speaker 1: well for me. I think I have some metrics and
Speaker 1: angles variables that aren't being taken into account with the
Speaker 1: standard betting line. And as a result, I you know,
Speaker 1: I've been able to maintain my edge. The market hasn't
Speaker 1: been too efficient on me yet. So yeah, I definitely
Speaker 1: missed the NBA being here. But you know, we were
Speaker 1: for farther enough into the season March eleventh that I
Speaker 1: was sort of getting to the point I was like, Okay,
Speaker 1: I'm getting ready for this season to end. To move
Speaker 1: on to the next thing. So I'm not quite missing
Speaker 1: the NBA betting is quite as much as I'm missing
Speaker 1: getting into that baseball betting. Is there a sport jack
Speaker 1: or a a betting vehicle. Let's say that you were
Speaker 1: super excited to exploit or bet and it just didn't
Speaker 1: work out your way and it continues to flummix you.
Speaker 1: Is there is there a sport that is just more
Speaker 1: difficult for you that others? Oh you you name it?
Speaker 1: I mean, I you know, look, any sports bettor who
Speaker 1: does a lot of betting knows that you you go
Speaker 1: down a lot of paths and you fail. And trust me,
Speaker 1: I've failed at many things. I've built many models that
Speaker 1: have gone nowhere. I've I've taken tens of hundreds of
Speaker 1: hours developing data sets and finding trying to find correlation
Speaker 1: when there's just no correlation there that would make for
Speaker 1: a quantitative betting model. So my failures are too many
Speaker 1: to mention, Gil, But trust me, you know there's been
Speaker 1: plenty of sports where I just I just never had
Speaker 1: the edge and I had to give it up. The
Speaker 1: modeling thing scares a lot of people, right, So most
Speaker 1: people who come to this are just like like most
Speaker 1: of us of us who are innately drawn to sports
Speaker 1: as kids were sports fans first, right, and then you know,
Speaker 1: somehow you drifted into sports betting. The modeling is something
Speaker 1: that would I don't know if scares the right word,
Speaker 1: but of sports better will be like, Okay, you've lost
Speaker 1: me right there. And modeling. Could you say anything Jack
Speaker 1: that would ease those people's fears and say like, yeah,
Speaker 1: actually it's not that difficult. Yeah, you know, intimidating, Bill,
Speaker 1: that's the word I think you're looking for, because a
Speaker 1: lot of people are intimidated by modeling. They just think
Speaker 1: it's math beyond what they're capable of handling. Uh. You know,
Speaker 1: the funny thing is is there are programs out there
Speaker 1: that basically shortened that curve, that learning curve when it
Speaker 1: comes to the heavy duty data science math behind modeling.
Speaker 1: There's plenty of tools out there. So the example I
Speaker 1: give in my series Making a Modeler, which is a
Speaker 1: blatant rip off on the Netflix Making a Murderer series. Um,
Speaker 1: but the blatant idea that I give is that modeling
Speaker 1: doesn't have to be intimidating. You know, you can use
Speaker 1: Microsoft Excel to create a model and everyone has used
Speaker 1: Excel at some point in their life, so the idea
Speaker 1: of a spreadsheet shouldn't be that intimidating. I walked people
Speaker 1: through creating a Monty Carlo model in the first episode.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna walk people through creating a web scraper in
Speaker 1: the second episode. And these are things that you can
Speaker 1: do without any program experience. And what I like to
Speaker 1: do is I like to show you what it looks
Speaker 1: like when you're doing advanced stuff. You know, when you're
Speaker 1: doing things in Python or are and advanced programming languages. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's it's intimidating, it's there's a huge learning curve there.
Speaker 1: But then I show you what can be done in
Speaker 1: Excel very easily. Now, the stuff that I'm showing you
Speaker 1: is gonna win. That's the added part that the the
Speaker 1: user has to take and figure out how to make
Speaker 1: this win. So I'm showing you the basics. I'm giving
Speaker 1: you a fishing rod and showing you how to put
Speaker 1: bait on the hook. I'm not telling you how to fish,
Speaker 1: and I am telling you that you're gonna need to
Speaker 1: learn to fish in order to sustain this and feed
Speaker 1: yourself going forward. I love it. Cap Jack Andrews again
Speaker 1: at cap Jack two thousand on Twitter. Jack, I'll leave
Speaker 1: you with this, um and again, nothing we we talked
Speaker 1: about beforehand, but if you could sort of wave your
Speaker 1: magic wand here, so the pandemic we get to the
Speaker 1: other side of it, sports returns in some form in
Speaker 1: and hopefully in the form that we've always known in
Speaker 1: love next year. Um, what's the biggest thing in sports
Speaker 1: betting in this industry that you would like to see
Speaker 1: happen or what do you think is the most significant
Speaker 1: thing that could happen? And I just sort of give
Speaker 1: it as a as an open ended answer. Is it
Speaker 1: for eights uh to you know, sort of come up,
Speaker 1: you know, to to get legalized with sports betting more
Speaker 1: in the way that New Jersey did it. Then say
Speaker 1: some of the other examples we we gave, maybe it's
Speaker 1: something else that we haven't mentioned here. What is the
Speaker 1: answer to that for you? So that's a great question, Gil.
Speaker 1: I think definitely we need to see some states kind
Speaker 1: of step up and take a long game approach to
Speaker 1: their sports betting industry, not just be the quick cash grab.
Speaker 1: They have to understand that, you know, they need to
Speaker 1: foster competitive industry because when you have competitive industry, you'd
Speaker 1: also fosters innovation. Right these these sports books are going
Speaker 1: to need to innovate to stay ahead of each other.
Speaker 1: It's it's a it's a model of capitalism. And what
Speaker 1: I want to see is that if we can foster
Speaker 1: the competition, we foster the innovation, we foster a better
Speaker 1: sports betting product for everyone going forward. The way that
Speaker 1: I'm going to be betting sports five years from now,
Speaker 1: I hope it's nothing close to what I'm doing today,
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's it's going to evolve and there
Speaker 1: hopefully there's gonna be things going on that are better
Speaker 1: and and more innovative than I can even imagine right now.
Speaker 1: And that's that's what I'd really like to see, is
Speaker 1: that we take this evolutionary step forward when it comes
Speaker 1: to sports betting and it comes to sports bettors to
Speaker 1: make a product that just really works for everyone and
Speaker 1: it increases the level of engagement and then real quick. Secondly,
Speaker 1: the thing I want to see, and this is a
Speaker 1: cautionary tale to the industry, We're going to have a
Speaker 1: decrease in discretionary spending when we come out of this.
Speaker 1: You know, we have unemployment, people have lost jobs, People
Speaker 1: aren't gonna want to spend money frivolously. Vegas is gonna
Speaker 1: have a hard time getting people back into casinos at
Speaker 1: the rate they used to. So we need to be
Speaker 1: able to say, Okay, we need to appeal to the
Speaker 1: value consumer. We need to have mobile betting everywhere we can, uh.
Speaker 1: And we need to make sure that people, when they
Speaker 1: spend their money, are spending it wisely and not and
Speaker 1: not frivolously when it comes to sports betting, because they
Speaker 1: value that money a little bit highly than they did
Speaker 1: before all this. And I and I just worry Jack,
Speaker 1: and I'm sure you do too. Sort of follows from
Speaker 1: that that unless and we said this even before legalization,
Speaker 1: Unless they get it right, they meaning legalized sports jurisdictions
Speaker 1: in this country, get it right in the sense that
Speaker 1: consumers and betters themselves win, get the best of it,
Speaker 1: have a great experience, are treated fairly both uh, you know,
Speaker 1: mathematically and otherwise. Offshore is just just is just going
Speaker 1: to continue to thrive, isn't it. The very thing that
Speaker 1: you're seeking to get people away from. It's going to
Speaker 1: have the opposite effect. And I just worry that the
Speaker 1: the European model for lack of a better catchphrase, catch
Speaker 1: all term. You know, I'm just worried that that is
Speaker 1: going to Maybe maybe I'm not worried. Maybe I don't
Speaker 1: care in the end, but maybe I'm just I just
Speaker 1: want to make the point that, you know, the more
Speaker 1: they behave, the way they behave, um, offshore is not
Speaker 1: going anywhere, is it. No, that's right. You know, the
Speaker 1: legal onshore industry has the three CS in its advantage.
Speaker 1: They have uh confidence, which they definitely have over the
Speaker 1: off shore industry based on the recreational consumer. They have
Speaker 1: a competitive advantage of having things be uh you know,
Speaker 1: more competitive in the states that have competition, and they
Speaker 1: have convenience. It's far easier to get money into a
Speaker 1: legal sports book than it is to get it off
Speaker 1: shore in most states. Nevada is getting there, but hopefully
Speaker 1: gets there soon. But if if the states can just
Speaker 1: focus on those three CS, they can do so much better.
Speaker 1: And uh, you know, if they really want to squash
Speaker 1: the offshore industry, they could do it. But at the
Speaker 1: same time, and this is my last point, Gil, we
Speaker 1: need to find a way to get those offshore people
Speaker 1: into onshore jobs. They're the smartest people in the room, Gil.
Speaker 1: They are the people that know sports, betting and booking sports.
Speaker 1: That's the best and we need to find a way
Speaker 1: to get them into the onshore industry. Jack. I can't
Speaker 1: thank you enough, man, um it's I've always wanted you
Speaker 1: on here. I'm glad you've made the time. Thank you
Speaker 1: so much. Uh and you are, sir A credits to
Speaker 1: the industry. You really are. Thank you so much, Man,
Speaker 1: Thank you, Gil. It's a pleasure at cap Jack two thousand,
Speaker 1: Captain Jack Andrews do check out is YouTube Syria A
Speaker 1: mut