1
00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:03,720
Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Ju us proud

2
00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:05,400
Speaker 1: read enough.

3
00:00:06,120 --> 00:00:13,480
Speaker 2: They're all for running a game so smooth, so sweet.

4
00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,400
Speaker 2: Twid sixteen, just glorious execution.

5
00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:21,120
Speaker 3: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

6
00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:24,200
Speaker 3: thousand percent of the time. How shot with that?

7
00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:27,720
Speaker 2: Shop with mind, buddy, and that's why you see.

8
00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:29,360
Speaker 3: Your beautiful tiers.

9
00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:30,960
Speaker 2: Look at his movements, the.

10
00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:32,240
Speaker 3: Most dangerous a mount of the planet.

11
00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:33,000
Speaker 2: Nobody kicks them.

12
00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:38,400
Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

13
00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:42,600
Speaker 2: The love is.

14
00:00:42,840 --> 00:00:47,240
Speaker 3: Left to one of the wide eyed, drilled bibused.

15
00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:54,360
Speaker 1: How old earth that happened? Hello everyone, Welcome back to Wonderful,

16
00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:58,520
Speaker 1: the Soccer Betting podcast from the Action Network. My name

17
00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:01,160
Speaker 1: is Michael Lee. Buff just a moment, I'll be joined

18
00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:05,080
Speaker 1: by my co hosts and colleagues, Action Network soccer experts

19
00:01:05,080 --> 00:01:09,000
Speaker 1: Anthony Dbundo and bj Cunningham. But before I bring in

20
00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:11,840
Speaker 1: those two gentlemen, a reminder that wonder Goal is presented

21
00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:14,160
Speaker 1: to you by Bet three six five, the world's favorite

22
00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:16,480
Speaker 1: sportsbook brand. Sign up with promo. Go to Action and

23
00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:18,480
Speaker 1: get Bet three six five's exclusive sign up off for

24
00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:22,440
Speaker 1: New Jersey in Colorado and Ohio, where you can bet

25
00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:26,880
Speaker 1: one dollar on any game and get two hundred dollars back.

26
00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:31,280
Speaker 1: All right, a weird slate. Usually we start with the headliner,

27
00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:38,280
Speaker 1: Anthony and bj is usually a pretty easy pick. Not

28
00:01:38,360 --> 00:01:44,040
Speaker 1: so much this week unless you think Everton and Brentford, because.

29
00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:44,680
Speaker 2: It is probably the best match.

30
00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:48,640
Speaker 1: I would say it is. But we'll start. We'll just

31
00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:51,000
Speaker 1: go chronologically, so we'll start seven thirty in the morning.

32
00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:55,800
Speaker 1: Bournemouth Anthony's Bournemouth. They're six to one at home hosting

33
00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:59,240
Speaker 1: Liverpool minus two twenty five and the draw is plus

34
00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:02,600
Speaker 1: two fifty. Of course, these odds are provided to us

35
00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:05,520
Speaker 1: by bet three six five, the world's favorite sports book brand.

36
00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:10,520
Speaker 1: Liverpool's coming off of the famous seven to nothing victory

37
00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:14,800
Speaker 1: over Manchester United. Someone on the show had United as

38
00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:19,720
Speaker 1: their best bet last week point fingers and they have

39
00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:23,120
Speaker 1: Real Madrid on deck. How much they're gonna care about

40
00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:26,880
Speaker 1: that match on Wednesday? They're down five to two on aggregate.

41
00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:28,680
Speaker 1: I mean they've they've done it before. Who knows, but

42
00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:34,240
Speaker 1: either way, this looks like a smash spot for Anthony's

43
00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:38,120
Speaker 1: new favorite bet, and or at least some kind of

44
00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:42,440
Speaker 1: variation of it, which is the Cherries to get on

45
00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:42,800
Speaker 1: the board.

46
00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:45,639
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, you know, we talked about this on the

47
00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:49,959
Speaker 3: Sunday Show. The easiest cash of all time was Brent

48
00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:52,119
Speaker 3: for a Bournemouth team total over. While we're going back

49
00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:54,880
Speaker 3: to the well, the Cherries have actually come to life

50
00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:57,400
Speaker 3: a bit in attack and I actually think the market

51
00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:02,480
Speaker 3: is underrating their attack now. Or we talked about pretty

52
00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:04,760
Speaker 3: much all of December and most of the pre World

53
00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:08,000
Speaker 3: Cup period saying you know, this team is going to regress,

54
00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:11,680
Speaker 3: and they had a very long stretch where they were

55
00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:14,119
Speaker 3: either you know, pretty much like zero zero zero one

56
00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:17,400
Speaker 3: zero zero goals scored. They've not produced at least one

57
00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:19,800
Speaker 3: expected goal in each of their last six prem matches

58
00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:23,760
Speaker 3: and that includes games against Wolves, Newcastle and Brighton, who

59
00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:27,480
Speaker 3: are all better defenses than Liverpool this season. Look, the

60
00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:32,120
Speaker 3: seven goal outburst was impressive. We will talk on Sunday's

61
00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:35,120
Speaker 3: episode what I think it could mean for their second

62
00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:39,280
Speaker 3: leg against Real Madrid in terms of searching for margin potentially.

63
00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:44,040
Speaker 3: But in this matchup, Liverpool has two main flaws that

64
00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:46,760
Speaker 3: we've talked about all season long. They have not been

65
00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:48,800
Speaker 3: good at stopping crosses and they have not been good

66
00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:51,080
Speaker 3: at stopping set pieces, and that is pretty much what

67
00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:55,160
Speaker 3: Bournemouth does to generate most of its chances. They also

68
00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:58,640
Speaker 3: have a new kickoff strategy where they are about fifty

69
00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:00,960
Speaker 3: percent likely to score a goal the opening kickoff of

70
00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:05,000
Speaker 3: either the regulation or the second half. Apparently no, I'm kidding,

71
00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:08,280
Speaker 3: but I think it's a sign of what I think

72
00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:12,320
Speaker 3: is creativity and we may see some set piece routines,

73
00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:16,320
Speaker 3: some throwing stuff. Manufacturing goals is something that you know,

74
00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:18,680
Speaker 3: a team like Brentford and Brighton have been so good

75
00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:20,640
Speaker 3: at doing on set pieces and is where they really

76
00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:23,560
Speaker 3: gained an edge. Bournemouth leaning into that a little bit

77
00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:26,680
Speaker 3: is a positive sign for this attack because otherwise it's

78
00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:30,080
Speaker 3: a quite poor attack. They are not good at getting shots.

79
00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:32,760
Speaker 3: They're the worst attack in the prem by XG for

80
00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:34,880
Speaker 3: the season. But like I said, they have been trending

81
00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:39,200
Speaker 3: in the right direction. Liverpool's defense, even in the dominant win,

82
00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:43,359
Speaker 3: did concede some good opportunities for Man United, and so

83
00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:45,279
Speaker 3: I think Bournemouth will get on the board at home.

84
00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:48,680
Speaker 3: Remember this is also a bit of a revenge spot.

85
00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:50,360
Speaker 3: You know, you give up nine goals to a team

86
00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:53,000
Speaker 3: you get embarrassed in the first meeting, there's going to

87
00:04:53,080 --> 00:04:55,440
Speaker 3: be some There should be some type of natural response

88
00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:58,760
Speaker 3: to give it a go. Here and not get pasted again.

89
00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:00,920
Speaker 3: You know, you'd expect them to do something here. So

90
00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:03,600
Speaker 3: I'm going to take both teams to score, finding the

91
00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:07,280
Speaker 3: minus one seventeen is the best as of recording and

92
00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:09,479
Speaker 3: we re ride our cherries again.

93
00:05:10,240 --> 00:05:12,400
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think it's a good bet both teams to score.

94
00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:15,440
Speaker 1: But the hilarious thing will be when Bournemouth scores in

95
00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:17,000
Speaker 1: like the third minute and then they just hold on

96
00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:19,440
Speaker 1: and you should have just went with the Bournemouth team

97
00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:22,240
Speaker 1: total over BJ What are you thinking here?

98
00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:22,560
Speaker 3: Right?

99
00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:24,600
Speaker 2: I'm right there with Anthony. I love both teams to score.

100
00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:27,520
Speaker 2: I actually I have projected at minus one ninety. You know,

101
00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:30,640
Speaker 2: we're going for three for three with Bournemouth scoring. It's

102
00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:32,600
Speaker 2: a Big six club, which is kind of funny. But

103
00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:34,880
Speaker 2: guess what. They've actually created over one at least one

104
00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:39,160
Speaker 2: expected goal in their last six matches and it's not

105
00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:42,799
Speaker 2: been against cupcase either, you know, Nottingham, Forest, Brighton, Newcastle,

106
00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:46,280
Speaker 2: Wolves City and Arsenal. They're like Anthony mentioned, they're a

107
00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:48,320
Speaker 2: very very good set piece team. Their fourth and next

108
00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:51,440
Speaker 2: cheaper set piece Liverpool dead last the Premier League in

109
00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:55,800
Speaker 2: that category. Defensively, now, the Bournemouth defense, it's been really

110
00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:57,720
Speaker 2: bad since the World Cup break, Like there's no way

111
00:05:57,760 --> 00:06:00,760
Speaker 2: of sugarcoding eighteen point five expected goals life in their

112
00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:05,159
Speaker 2: last ten matches. The thing though, is is that you know,

113
00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:08,280
Speaker 2: Liverpool's defense has obviously been bad all season long. I

114
00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:11,160
Speaker 2: think they are getting better with Kanat and Van Dyke

115
00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:15,320
Speaker 2: both being healthy and playing together. But you know, the

116
00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:19,440
Speaker 2: Bournemouth attack does have more talented players like o Tar

117
00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:22,480
Speaker 2: and obviously through that stretch when they were not scoring,

118
00:06:22,760 --> 00:06:24,599
Speaker 2: some guys were injured, so they just didn't really have

119
00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:27,640
Speaker 2: anybody to go forward an attack. So I think this

120
00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:32,360
Speaker 2: is a pretty low both teams to score here, you know.

121
00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:34,440
Speaker 2: And the thing about Bournemouth as well is and this

122
00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:36,040
Speaker 2: is something we'll talk about as we get further into

123
00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:39,679
Speaker 2: the season, but like they're at the bottom of the table,

124
00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:42,280
Speaker 2: they can't just sit back in a low block and

125
00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:44,760
Speaker 2: just say, hey, Liverpool have the ball, We're gonna try

126
00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:46,440
Speaker 2: to play this out for zero Zio Drohn. No, they

127
00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:48,800
Speaker 2: need to be aggressive, they need to come out and yeah,

128
00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:52,000
Speaker 2: I don't really I would guess Liverpool takes this match

129
00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:54,960
Speaker 2: more seriously than the one against Real Madrid. But again,

130
00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:57,680
Speaker 2: they've looked very, very vulnerable in transition so I agree

131
00:06:57,720 --> 00:07:00,000
Speaker 2: with Anthony. Both teams to score and might as well.

132
00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:02,120
Speaker 2: Seventeen I think is a fantastic price.

133
00:07:04,120 --> 00:07:07,360
Speaker 1: All right, Uh, we'll talk about the other Merseyside team now.

134
00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:11,080
Speaker 1: Everton is plus one sixty two against Brentford, who are

135
00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:14,480
Speaker 1: coming to Goodison Park. Is a plus one seventy five underdog.

136
00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:17,400
Speaker 1: The draw plus two twenty. Little trivia for you guys.

137
00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:20,720
Speaker 1: There are three teams in Europe's Big five leagues leagues

138
00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:24,200
Speaker 1: that have yet to lose a match. One of them

139
00:07:24,240 --> 00:07:27,040
Speaker 1: is Brentford. Do you guys know the other two?

140
00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:29,720
Speaker 2: Since the World Cup break yep.

141
00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:35,440
Speaker 1: Reams, yep Reams is one.

142
00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:42,520
Speaker 3: I don't know, Dortmoun Dormant just lost.

143
00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:45,280
Speaker 1: Well yeah, so was that was well? No, I'm sorry

144
00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:45,800
Speaker 1: you should.

145
00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:49,040
Speaker 3: Have said domestically domestically yes.

146
00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:55,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, Reams and Dormant and Brentford the Big three. Uh.

147
00:07:56,240 --> 00:07:58,120
Speaker 1: I do think that this sets up all right for

148
00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:02,400
Speaker 1: Everton at home, gonna play their kind of rigid defensive

149
00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:04,360
Speaker 1: high they just can't score. I mean, I think this

150
00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:07,760
Speaker 1: is actually a pretty decent jow. Bet at plus two

151
00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:12,720
Speaker 1: twenty feels pretty low event you can bet, yeah, Neil

152
00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:15,840
Speaker 1: Mopi anytime goals scorer plus a million if you want it.

153
00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:18,880
Speaker 1: But other than that, very little betting interest for me.

154
00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:23,000
Speaker 1: But obviously we'll be white knuckling through this one as

155
00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:28,440
Speaker 1: the Toffees continue their relegation battle. Anthony, you were thinking

156
00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:29,239
Speaker 1: about it though.

157
00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:33,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this is a good potential cell high

158
00:08:33,240 --> 00:08:35,080
Speaker 3: spot me. He just made the stat they have not

159
00:08:35,160 --> 00:08:36,760
Speaker 3: lost since the World Cup break. I had that in

160
00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:39,080
Speaker 3: my notes, but I didn't have the one of two

161
00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:41,719
Speaker 3: teams in Europe it's top five leagues and not loose

162
00:08:41,760 --> 00:08:43,360
Speaker 3: since the World Cup break. But I think that kind

163
00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:45,280
Speaker 3: of gets at the point here. Look, they had a

164
00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:47,679
Speaker 3: huge win on Monday night against Fulham, and I know

165
00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:50,120
Speaker 3: we all bet Brentford and we all were like, this

166
00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:51,680
Speaker 3: is going to be easy for them, and in the end,

167
00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:54,520
Speaker 3: like it was a pretty routine win, but that's a

168
00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:58,280
Speaker 3: big darby the dramatic way that it went down and

169
00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:02,120
Speaker 3: you know, getting you know, three goals and hang on late.

170
00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:06,600
Speaker 3: It was a very emotional win and I think there's

171
00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:08,520
Speaker 3: a potential for them to be flat here going on

172
00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:11,280
Speaker 3: the road to Everton. We've talked about this since this

173
00:09:11,320 --> 00:09:14,920
Speaker 3: pot has existed, about Brentford's home and waste splits being notable. Well,

174
00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:17,640
Speaker 3: Everton's home and awate splits are pretty notable too, And

175
00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:20,320
Speaker 3: even if you just look, you know, you know they

176
00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:24,400
Speaker 3: weren't that bad under Lampard at home, and they've been

177
00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:26,440
Speaker 3: solid at home under Disceh as well. I know they

178
00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:28,679
Speaker 3: lost to Villa and their last home match, but they

179
00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:32,200
Speaker 3: won that on non penalty XG like they were the

180
00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:34,400
Speaker 3: better side for large parts of that match. I thought,

181
00:09:34,520 --> 00:09:37,920
Speaker 3: until a couple of defensive miscues at home against Leeds,

182
00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:40,800
Speaker 3: they we pretty much controlled that match. At home against Arsenal,

183
00:09:40,840 --> 00:09:43,080
Speaker 3: they controlled that match. At home against Southampton, they were

184
00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:45,600
Speaker 3: the better side. Even though they lost. At home against

185
00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:47,280
Speaker 3: Wolf they were the better side even though they lost,

186
00:09:47,280 --> 00:09:50,440
Speaker 3: like they have put together some good home performances. The

187
00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:53,400
Speaker 3: reason I don't like betting this is that the number,

188
00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:57,960
Speaker 3: I mean, there's just never value fading Brentford because at

189
00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:00,439
Speaker 3: least in my numbers, the market just never gives them respect.

190
00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:03,439
Speaker 3: And so you know, if they were a true favorite here,

191
00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:05,559
Speaker 3: I could back the Toffees. But but you know, the

192
00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:08,840
Speaker 3: Everton's a favorite, and my numbers have Brentford as a

193
00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:10,839
Speaker 3: solidly better team in factor in home field. It gets

194
00:10:10,880 --> 00:10:13,280
Speaker 3: me right around to where it is. So the spot

195
00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:16,640
Speaker 3: I think is good for Everton. The number is less good.

196
00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:19,520
Speaker 3: So I'll be monitoring this one and potentially looking to

197
00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:23,319
Speaker 3: play Everton. But again it's like there's there's almost never

198
00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:25,520
Speaker 3: value betting against Brentford. In fact, I don't think I've

199
00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:28,320
Speaker 3: bet against them all year, just kind of how it

200
00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:31,760
Speaker 3: has ended up, and I yeah, I think reality.

201
00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:37,080
Speaker 1: You wonder if they're professional gambler owner, maybe he knows

202
00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:39,439
Speaker 1: how to balance the market so that there's always a

203
00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:43,880
Speaker 1: little schmidge of value on his bees. Smart thinking, BJ

204
00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:45,240
Speaker 1: what do you got?

205
00:10:45,720 --> 00:10:47,760
Speaker 2: I can double bet here? I actually do like Brentford

206
00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:49,360
Speaker 2: jono bet at minus one ten and I also like

207
00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:51,200
Speaker 2: over two and a half goals. You can find it

208
00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:54,120
Speaker 2: out there at plus one forty right now. You know

209
00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:57,200
Speaker 2: it's funny, you know, you see Sean Deitsch and you

210
00:10:57,240 --> 00:10:59,400
Speaker 2: always think, oh my gosh, he's such a defensive managering

211
00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:01,960
Speaker 2: the same thing about Brentford because of how good they

212
00:11:01,960 --> 00:11:05,160
Speaker 2: are defending their penalty area. But Everton, Michael, ever since

213
00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:09,280
Speaker 2: Sean Ditch came on board, they've been playing high event soccer.

214
00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:11,959
Speaker 2: I mean there are six matches that he's been in charge.

215
00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:16,040
Speaker 2: Those matches are averaging three expected goals and despite and sets,

216
00:11:16,040 --> 00:11:20,040
Speaker 2: despite playing Arsenal and Liverpool twice, you know, everything's created

217
00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:21,960
Speaker 2: over one expected goal in five of those six matches,

218
00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:25,080
Speaker 2: So the offense has been somewhat has been good. But

219
00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:27,680
Speaker 2: I think the bigger point is we saw this near

220
00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:30,520
Speaker 2: the end with Sean Ditch with his tenure with Burnleane,

221
00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:32,800
Speaker 2: when they were in the relegation zone and they were fighting,

222
00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:36,200
Speaker 2: they couldn't just sit back. They had to be aggressive,

223
00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:37,680
Speaker 2: they had to come out and they couldn't play a

224
00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:39,360
Speaker 2: low block. You would go to a mid block. He

225
00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:42,120
Speaker 2: would try to press to disrupt teams from building up

226
00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:44,920
Speaker 2: and it just didn't really work, and it actually created

227
00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:48,320
Speaker 2: some high event type matches. And if you go back

228
00:11:48,400 --> 00:11:51,040
Speaker 2: and watch the Nottingham Forest match, there were countless times

229
00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:53,080
Speaker 2: that the middle of the pitch was pretty wide open

230
00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:55,760
Speaker 2: to pass right into. And Brentford is an unbelievable team

231
00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:59,679
Speaker 2: at playing through the middle of the pitch. So you know,

232
00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:05,439
Speaker 2: if Everton is going to turn this game into being transitional,

233
00:12:05,480 --> 00:12:08,160
Speaker 2: which is honestly where they they're their at best offensively.

234
00:12:08,200 --> 00:12:11,040
Speaker 2: But that's the problem they had under Frank Lampard for

235
00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:12,800
Speaker 2: such a long time, is that they were just so

236
00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:15,640
Speaker 2: so bad in transition defense. So if you want to

237
00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:17,880
Speaker 2: make this game transitional, that's a really dangerous game to

238
00:12:17,880 --> 00:12:20,720
Speaker 2: play against Brentford. Now, Brentford's just been flat out awesome

239
00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:23,720
Speaker 2: against the bottom half of the table. Fourteen matches against

240
00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:26,280
Speaker 2: the bottom ten teams, averaging one point four to two

241
00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:28,840
Speaker 2: expected goals per ninety and they have a plus four

242
00:12:28,880 --> 00:12:31,240
Speaker 2: point one expected goald differential. And Brentford also showed and

243
00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:34,160
Speaker 2: I mentioned this before, but their style of play when

244
00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:35,960
Speaker 2: they're playing teams in the bottom half table, or at

245
00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:38,040
Speaker 2: least teams that aren't going to control a lot of possession,

246
00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:39,880
Speaker 2: is they switch from a three to five to two

247
00:12:39,880 --> 00:12:41,400
Speaker 2: to a four to three to three, bring on a winger,

248
00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:44,600
Speaker 2: take off a center back to give them more attacking

249
00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:46,520
Speaker 2: options going forward, so they can break down a team

250
00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:48,480
Speaker 2: who wants to play in mid to low block. So

251
00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:50,439
Speaker 2: I think that's what you're going to see here again.

252
00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:52,400
Speaker 2: You know the previous meeting, Everyton went up on nothing

253
00:12:52,440 --> 00:12:56,400
Speaker 2: in the first half after a Anthony Gordon banger, and

254
00:12:56,520 --> 00:12:59,720
Speaker 2: Brentford just proceeded to completely tilt the field on Everton

255
00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:02,760
Speaker 2: created over two expected goals, created two big scoring chances,

256
00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:03,920
Speaker 2: put one of them in the back and then ended

257
00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:05,680
Speaker 2: up with a one to one draw. But that match

258
00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:08,240
Speaker 2: had three point two expected goals in it, so I'm

259
00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:10,439
Speaker 2: projecting two point eight to eight goals for this match.

260
00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:12,480
Speaker 2: So I love over two and a half goals at

261
00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:15,319
Speaker 2: plus one forty and I actually project Brentford as a

262
00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:17,960
Speaker 2: plus one twenty seven favorite. So I like them drawing

263
00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:18,839
Speaker 2: a bat of minus one ten.

264
00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:21,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, but your numbers don't factor that Michael Kenes back

265
00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:22,000
Speaker 1: in the squad.

266
00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:24,920
Speaker 2: That's true, I did not back to that end.

267
00:13:25,800 --> 00:13:27,920
Speaker 3: At least that's worth at least ten percent.

268
00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:29,720
Speaker 2: Fifty on the line.

269
00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:31,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, at least at least.

270
00:13:32,360 --> 00:13:34,720
Speaker 3: Mapey Mapey being out would be another fifty cents.

271
00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:40,400
Speaker 1: And there you go. Yeah, yep uh Leads United Anthony's

272
00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:44,600
Speaker 1: Leeds United there plus two seventy five hosting.

273
00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:45,520
Speaker 3: The score last weekend.

274
00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:50,200
Speaker 1: Brighton's odds on on the road here at Allen Roade

275
00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:55,160
Speaker 1: the drives plus through sixty leads offensive out, but has

276
00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:57,120
Speaker 1: slowed down a little bit over the last eleven matches.

277
00:13:57,120 --> 00:14:01,640
Speaker 1: It's just under eleven expected goals and total. So you're

278
00:14:01,679 --> 00:14:03,679
Speaker 1: not the not the high flying Leads that Anthony told

279
00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:05,679
Speaker 1: us was going to show up and gate crash the

280
00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:07,280
Speaker 1: top four this year, but.

281
00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:11,160
Speaker 2: Because they fired Jesse Marsh right, yeah, this was just.

282
00:14:11,120 --> 00:14:12,680
Speaker 3: To fix it. But look, the people told me that

283
00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:18,000
Speaker 3: he was the problem. I don't think he was. And

284
00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:20,760
Speaker 3: they're in the relegation place right now.

285
00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:23,600
Speaker 2: It's they are one above Everton right now.

286
00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:29,040
Speaker 1: Not a good place to be. Another match. That's it's

287
00:14:29,080 --> 00:14:32,800
Speaker 1: going to be a pass for me, A pretty easy one,

288
00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:35,640
Speaker 1: I thought. But you two both have plays, or at

289
00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:37,880
Speaker 1: least BJ has one, and Anthony you're thinking about it

290
00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:39,880
Speaker 1: so waiting. We'll start with you Bj.

291
00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:43,240
Speaker 2: I love Brighton again, like I love their team total

292
00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:45,360
Speaker 2: over one and a half, which you can find out

293
00:14:45,400 --> 00:14:48,720
Speaker 2: there at even money. I don't really want to, you know,

294
00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:50,600
Speaker 2: I project a little bit of value on their money line,

295
00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:52,200
Speaker 2: but I'm just projecting a lot more value on their

296
00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:55,640
Speaker 2: team total, which I have projected pretty much right at

297
00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:58,520
Speaker 2: too for them. I mean, this is a classic case,

298
00:14:58,560 --> 00:14:59,960
Speaker 2: like we've seen it when the match is against the

299
00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:02,640
Speaker 2: It's like when a team that loves to press high

300
00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:05,320
Speaker 2: wants to try to press Brighton and they can just

301
00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:07,720
Speaker 2: bait them in and just play right through them. I mean,

302
00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:09,200
Speaker 2: how are they not going to do that? Yet? Again?

303
00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:12,280
Speaker 2: Here to Leeds and the Brighton offense. I mean people

304
00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:14,600
Speaker 2: are starting to finally like take note, like, hey, Brighton

305
00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:17,560
Speaker 2: is actually like a you know, a Champions League level

306
00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:21,040
Speaker 2: type club right now the way that they're playing. I mean,

307
00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:24,840
Speaker 2: since DESERVEI took over, Brighton's averaging over two expected goals

308
00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:28,400
Speaker 2: p ninety in their last seven matches, they have created

309
00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:32,040
Speaker 2: sixteen point two expected goals and eleven big scoring chances,

310
00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:36,080
Speaker 2: and under DESERVEE they have a plus point ninety seven

311
00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:39,320
Speaker 2: non penalty expected gold deferential per ninety minutes. Only two

312
00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:41,360
Speaker 2: teams in the Premier League since Deservey took over at

313
00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:43,880
Speaker 2: the beginning of October have a better and it's barely

314
00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:46,080
Speaker 2: and it's Arsenal in Manchester City, the two teams buying

315
00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:49,520
Speaker 2: for the title. Even last weekend against one of the

316
00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:52,160
Speaker 2: best low block teams in the Premier League, Brighton put

317
00:15:52,160 --> 00:15:55,160
Speaker 2: in one of the most impressive offensive performances of the

318
00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:56,920
Speaker 2: entire Premier League season. Put up three and a half

319
00:15:57,000 --> 00:15:58,880
Speaker 2: expected goals, put the ball in the back of the

320
00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:02,160
Speaker 2: net four times, created three big scoring chances. And when

321
00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:05,720
Speaker 2: Leeds has to face teams that are really good at

322
00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:09,400
Speaker 2: playing through pressure, they tend to be pretty bad defensively

323
00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:12,320
Speaker 2: Against the top five teams in offensiveass per defensive action.

324
00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:14,560
Speaker 2: They've had a nine point three expected goals in those

325
00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:17,200
Speaker 2: five matches. And the last time they face Brighton, albeit

326
00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:20,160
Speaker 2: it was under Graham Potter and Jesse Marsh, Brighton won

327
00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:22,560
Speaker 2: the match one nothing created two expected goals, and that

328
00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:26,880
Speaker 2: was before Metoma and Ferguson were regularly playing inside the

329
00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:30,680
Speaker 2: starting eleven. So over one and a half Brighton team

330
00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:33,160
Speaker 2: total even money, I project them for two goals. So

331
00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:36,520
Speaker 2: I think it's a fantastic price on the Seagulls, who

332
00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:39,000
Speaker 2: are man They are red hot right now.

333
00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:42,360
Speaker 1: Anthony, you have a little bit of a rebuttal here.

334
00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:44,640
Speaker 3: Well, I want to know, did bjy go and start

335
00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:47,360
Speaker 3: a Brighton syndicate and not tell us because they have

336
00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:50,720
Speaker 3: gotten steamed over and over and over again in the

337
00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:51,480
Speaker 3: last month.

338
00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:52,440
Speaker 2: Yep.

339
00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:56,560
Speaker 3: And somebody in the market really likes Brighton. I like Brighton,

340
00:16:56,680 --> 00:16:58,560
Speaker 3: You like Brighton. We as a podcast, we are a

341
00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:02,240
Speaker 3: Brighton podcast. But you know, it's been like thirty forty cents.

342
00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:04,879
Speaker 3: I mean some of it was Metrovich when they played Fulham,

343
00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:07,639
Speaker 3: but even last week against west Ham they were minus

344
00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:09,359
Speaker 3: one ten to fifteen most of the week ended up

345
00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:11,800
Speaker 3: closing closer to minus one fifty to fifty five. That's

346
00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:14,879
Speaker 3: a pretty big move a game day. This is not

347
00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:17,440
Speaker 3: stuff that's happening throughout the week, but within the few

348
00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:20,080
Speaker 3: hours before the game. So it's some pretty big money

349
00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:22,760
Speaker 3: moving those markets. And I respect the market and I

350
00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:25,720
Speaker 3: respect Brighton, and I'm going to wait and see here

351
00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:29,440
Speaker 3: because I think if we get more market steam on

352
00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:32,040
Speaker 3: the Seagulls, I will be hopping in on leads. So

353
00:17:32,080 --> 00:17:35,119
Speaker 3: I'm anticipating potential occurring. If you like leads, I think

354
00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:37,840
Speaker 3: it's worth waiting. And I think at that point, once

355
00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:39,159
Speaker 3: we get that steam, you're going to be able to

356
00:17:39,160 --> 00:17:43,000
Speaker 3: sell high here. Yes, I know that that Brighton has

357
00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:46,639
Speaker 3: been incredible. They put up ridiculous ext numbers and have

358
00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:49,760
Speaker 3: been amazing. But I think they will get to a

359
00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:52,159
Speaker 3: point where they're over rated in the market. And I

360
00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:54,119
Speaker 3: think if they steam up to minus one forty here,

361
00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:56,560
Speaker 3: minus one thirty five, even I will come back on

362
00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:58,560
Speaker 3: leads at home. I mean, think about they were just

363
00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:01,879
Speaker 3: minus one ten at Palace and now they're going to

364
00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:05,800
Speaker 3: be a much bigger road favorite at Leeds. I do

365
00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:09,119
Speaker 3: think it's interesting that Leeds can disrupt you know, Brighton,

366
00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:12,119
Speaker 3: We've talked about this. They want to they want to

367
00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:14,120
Speaker 3: encourage you to press them and then try to beat

368
00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:16,040
Speaker 3: you over the top with it, and it didn't work

369
00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:18,320
Speaker 3: for Liverpool. But Liverpool's just not a very good press

370
00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:20,280
Speaker 3: at the time that they played them. And I think

371
00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:23,720
Speaker 3: leads are better out of possession, better work rate and

372
00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:28,879
Speaker 3: have disrupted you know, teams like United in home matches

373
00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:32,160
Speaker 3: especially and Arsenal even going back to the fall. So

374
00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:35,400
Speaker 3: they have shown that they can do this against possessiony

375
00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:38,439
Speaker 3: teams that want to invite pressure. So I think they

376
00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:42,840
Speaker 3: can disrupt a little bit and do enough. But like

377
00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:44,880
Speaker 3: I said, I'm waiting if the market stays here. Though

378
00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:45,840
Speaker 3: I have no play.

379
00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:49,520
Speaker 1: On to Leicester and Chelsea. Now, I'm pretty excited about

380
00:18:49,520 --> 00:18:53,600
Speaker 1: this one. Leicester City's plus two seventy five home underdog,

381
00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:56,800
Speaker 1: Chelsea minus one of six jos plus two to fifty.

382
00:18:57,480 --> 00:19:00,560
Speaker 1: I love Chelsea here as a favorite on the road.

383
00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:03,880
Speaker 1: It felt like the lid has come off a little bit.

384
00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:07,640
Speaker 1: At Stanford Bridge. Everyone can kind of relax. They're gonna

385
00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:11,119
Speaker 1: win the Champions League. It's you know, put down the

386
00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:12,320
Speaker 1: torches and pitch.

387
00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:13,880
Speaker 2: For it outside.

388
00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:19,760
Speaker 1: They want to know, yeah, uh yeah, put down the

389
00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:23,520
Speaker 1: torches outside of Grandpotter's house. And just look at the numbers,

390
00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:29,439
Speaker 1: very brighton esque sixteen point two expected goals since the

391
00:19:29,480 --> 00:19:34,440
Speaker 1: World Cup, seven scored. Defensively, the numbers are great. According

392
00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:40,280
Speaker 1: to Understats expected points, Chelsea has the fourthmost since the

393
00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:44,040
Speaker 1: World Cup. And who better for all this to kind

394
00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:47,639
Speaker 1: of bubble to the surface against but Leicester City. I

395
00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:50,800
Speaker 1: think this is a pretty tough matchup for the Foxes

396
00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:55,600
Speaker 1: Chelsea gets on a roll. I like the Blues as

397
00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:59,600
Speaker 1: a road favorite. Anthony, what are your thoughts?

398
00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:02,280
Speaker 3: I agree, I'll make it two for two on Chelsea.

399
00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:06,280
Speaker 3: I'm gonna bet them again. We had them on Tuesday

400
00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:09,240
Speaker 3: against Dortmund. Maybe a little lucky, you know, with the

401
00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:12,600
Speaker 3: penalty and the retake and you know, but they were

402
00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:14,800
Speaker 3: overly dominant until that game got to too nil. I

403
00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:17,479
Speaker 3: thought they deserved to go through in the end against Dortmund.

404
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:20,640
Speaker 3: Chelsea's biggest flaw has been set pieces. They've been really

405
00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:22,439
Speaker 3: bad on them this year. You look at some of

406
00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:27,920
Speaker 3: the data, they are sixteenth and thirteenth in XG per

407
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:30,600
Speaker 3: set piece allowed and they've been pretty bad and attacking

408
00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:33,879
Speaker 3: set pieces as well, but less there's worse in both.

409
00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:35,920
Speaker 3: And this is a long standing problem. We talked about

410
00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:38,680
Speaker 3: it last year when they conceded a ridiculous amount of

411
00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:41,160
Speaker 3: goals from set pieces, and then this year they've conceded

412
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:43,480
Speaker 3: a fewer goals, but the underlying stuff suggests they haven't

413
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:46,520
Speaker 3: really gotten better. They've just gotten luckier defensively or less

414
00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 3: unlucky on set pieces. So from the rest of the matchup,

415
00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:51,879
Speaker 3: I agree. I think this is good for Chelsea. The

416
00:20:51,880 --> 00:20:54,000
Speaker 3: most impressive thing that I saw from Chelsea this week

417
00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:57,400
Speaker 3: was not the Dortmand game actually, but the Leads game.

418
00:20:57,880 --> 00:20:59,879
Speaker 3: Because I thought that Leads would be able to just

419
00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:04,200
Speaker 3: up the pressure or disrupt the defensive possession and really

420
00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:06,879
Speaker 3: make Chelsea uncomfortable and force a bunch of high turnovers.

421
00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:10,679
Speaker 3: They didn't do any of that. And Lester does like

422
00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:14,120
Speaker 3: to press a little bit and make themselves a little

423
00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:16,640
Speaker 3: bit vulnerable. They like to create high turnovers. Their top

424
00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:18,040
Speaker 3: five in the league at doing so. I just don't

425
00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:19,520
Speaker 3: think they're gonna be able to do that against this

426
00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:22,760
Speaker 3: Chelsea team, which we saw this under Potter. The first

427
00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:25,600
Speaker 3: thing that they improved was their ability to play through pressure,

428
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:27,960
Speaker 3: and that's why we started liking them as an underdog. Well,

429
00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,359
Speaker 3: now they have way more talented players, they should be

430
00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:33,399
Speaker 3: even better at it, and I like Chelsea to win here.

431
00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:36,119
Speaker 3: I don't think Lester is offering much Havertz is. I mean,

432
00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:37,720
Speaker 3: he's so due to score at this point. He keeps

433
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:40,440
Speaker 3: finding the posts. He scores off side goals by like

434
00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:42,159
Speaker 3: a tonail. He hits the inside of the post, it

435
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:45,080
Speaker 3: rolls across the goal line. Haveriz has been getting more

436
00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:48,720
Speaker 3: shots though, and that's more encouraging and really what I

437
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:51,400
Speaker 3: care about because it means the goals will come. So

438
00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 3: I really don't like this Lester team. I'm much lower

439
00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:56,760
Speaker 3: than the market on them, and I have been all year.

440
00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:59,720
Speaker 3: They are the worst defense by non penalty XG allowed

441
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:02,399
Speaker 3: in the whole WHO League. So even though I like Ionacho,

442
00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:06,400
Speaker 3: I'm fading Lester and I will be betting the Blues

443
00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 3: on the money line.

444
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,240
Speaker 1: You have her to pick it up when he goes

445
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:14,399
Speaker 1: back to bayer Leverkusen next year or something. Right back

446
00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:19,920
Speaker 1: to you, Anthony uh Spurs and Forrest Spurs minus too.

447
00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:23,639
Speaker 2: He's already on the beach, man, He's on the beach.

448
00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 1: He's he's at what what? What's the club that Ronaldo

449
00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:27,760
Speaker 1: is at? El Nasser That's where he is.

450
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:32,960
Speaker 3: He couldn't even manage the Guangzhu Tigers at this point?

451
00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:36,560
Speaker 1: Is that where is that where Ralphaite was before?

452
00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:36,719
Speaker 3: Ever?

453
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 2: I think that's where shout out your guy with Charleston today.

454
00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:42,840
Speaker 1: I agree we love him.

455
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:45,360
Speaker 3: That's a great shot. I mean he's when he's been

456
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:46,840
Speaker 3: on the pitch, he hasn't been any good.

457
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:50,080
Speaker 2: Yeah. His quote is I'm honest, this season has been shipped.

458
00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:50,960
Speaker 2: I want to play.

459
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's the best. He should he If he just

460
00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:57,360
Speaker 1: mutually terminates his contract.

461
00:22:57,359 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 2: I'm back again.

462
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 1: He can rescue us from relegation once more. Spurs minus

463
00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 1: two to fifty, hosting not even forced plus six to fifty.

464
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:08,040
Speaker 1: The draws plus three seventy five. Before I give it

465
00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:10,879
Speaker 1: to you, Anthony, I think I'm just gonna keep betting

466
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:15,280
Speaker 1: these draws in Tottenham games. The games are not only

467
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:18,240
Speaker 1: are they are already a pretty low event team with

468
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:20,200
Speaker 1: the way they want to set up, and we're gonna

469
00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 1: see the same thing from Forest. It's gonna be two

470
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 1: walls setting just staring at each other, daring Spurs to

471
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 1: break them down. I think the Conte stuff and like

472
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:30,680
Speaker 1: just the they're out of the Champions League and the

473
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:33,520
Speaker 1: way this season is gone. It's just I'm not really

474
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:36,960
Speaker 1: expecting all that much from this team down the stretch here,

475
00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:40,679
Speaker 1: so I could see just so most of these what

476
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 1: have they got twelve games left, like six of them

477
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:46,480
Speaker 1: just being absolute snoozers that are gonna be good draw bets,

478
00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 1: and this is one of them.

479
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:49,600
Speaker 3: I mean, I write about Spurs every week and I

480
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:51,399
Speaker 3: told our editor Avery, and I'm like, I'm tired of

481
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:53,679
Speaker 3: writing about Tottenham. I will not write about Tottenham against

482
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 3: Nottingham Forest. I think I bet either against Spurs or

483
00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:59,200
Speaker 3: bet the under in like their last seven matches or

484
00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:02,840
Speaker 3: eight matches. The market has just had a lot of

485
00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:05,440
Speaker 3: respect for goals in their games that I just didn't see.

486
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 3: And the defense has improved, give them credit, but like

487
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:11,520
Speaker 3: I said this last week, Son and Kane are worse

488
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 3: and forever. Those two guys carried a mediocre team with Lariz.

489
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 3: They had that brief period under Conte where things were really, really,

490
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:20,720
Speaker 3: really good and they were legitimately the third best team

491
00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:23,399
Speaker 3: in the league. They're no longer, you know, it was

492
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:25,679
Speaker 3: clear by September October that they were no longer producing

493
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:28,160
Speaker 3: those kind of numbers. They've gotten worse as the season

494
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 3: has gone on, not better. Now you have clubhouse dissension.

495
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:34,320
Speaker 3: It feels like tottenham season ended today against Milan, and

496
00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:36,600
Speaker 3: that's a little bit of like the betting market. You know,

497
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:38,360
Speaker 3: you can't just fade Spurs every match for the rest

498
00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 3: of the season. But I still think there's more regression coming.

499
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:42,280
Speaker 1: You know.

500
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 3: This is kind of like where we're at Liverpool and

501
00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:45,680
Speaker 3: Chelsea where I'm like, we have not hit the bottom yet.

502
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:47,880
Speaker 3: We have not hit the bottom yet. I still don't

503
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:50,479
Speaker 3: think we have. I think Forest is really bad. Forrest

504
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:53,640
Speaker 3: does like to, you know, apply some pressure and kind

505
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:55,919
Speaker 3: of take risks defensively, and so I don't love the

506
00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 3: match up with Tottenham, but then I still have value

507
00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:02,240
Speaker 3: on them, and I would not blame anybody for firing

508
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 3: on Forrest money line or the under. I just think that,

509
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:09,879
Speaker 3: you know, Tottenham's attack is just lifeless, and you know,

510
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:11,439
Speaker 3: I just think that there's a good chance that they

511
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 3: quit and that the rest of the season is ugly

512
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:17,160
Speaker 3: here because maybe if a new manager comes in, things change.

513
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 3: But Kante has done a really poor job this season

514
00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:24,240
Speaker 3: and they have not been good really all year, and

515
00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 3: I'm tired of it. I haven't turned the match off

516
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:28,399
Speaker 3: once Caine missed that chance and then Milan I just

517
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:30,680
Speaker 3: turned it off. I was done, and maybe they'll score.

518
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:34,639
Speaker 3: I don't need to watch there, you know. So I

519
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:37,479
Speaker 3: have checked out. I'm kante out and I have no

520
00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:39,679
Speaker 3: actual bet on this match. I will be probably passing.

521
00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:41,080
Speaker 3: But like I said, I won't blame you for playing

522
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 3: forest money line or draw because I think there's a

523
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 3: lot of downside risk for Tottenham here.

524
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:48,199
Speaker 2: Well you know, Anthony Forrest has got to like score

525
00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:50,920
Speaker 2: to win the match, and they've still always scored three

526
00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 2: goals away from home. So yeah, that's the shining light.

527
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:57,359
Speaker 2: And hey Tom, just bet the under again and still

528
00:25:57,560 --> 00:25:59,399
Speaker 2: very alive in the top four. I know it seems

529
00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 2: like it's dead, like they're dead. They're still alive.

530
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 3: Righton has a better chance to get the top four

531
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:05,200
Speaker 3: than Spurs.

532
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 1: Maybe Crystal Palace nine to one at home to Manchester

533
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:15,919
Speaker 1: City who are minus three hundred, the draws four to one.

534
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:19,919
Speaker 1: This is the twelve thirty game on Saturday, and another

535
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:23,520
Speaker 1: one that uh I'm not going to be playing.

536
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 2: Please stop putting Palace in prime time, please, slots, they're

537
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:31,560
Speaker 2: so boring. Like, I don't really know what to say

538
00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:34,440
Speaker 2: more about Chrispalas anymore, like that match against Aston Villa

539
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:37,240
Speaker 2: Will was one of the more like snoozy type matches

540
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:39,399
Speaker 2: of the entire season, like the Gape and Ogle they

541
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 2: got a red card and like that was that it

542
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:44,639
Speaker 2: took three total shots. So I think there's something interesting

543
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:46,879
Speaker 2: happening with City in the market though the last three matches,

544
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:49,680
Speaker 2: if you look at the match and now, granted it's

545
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:52,520
Speaker 2: because you know, especially the match against bour Myth, is

546
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:54,639
Speaker 2: because they had a champion. They're e're coming off champions

547
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:57,639
Speaker 2: that are going in too when I can't remember, they

548
00:26:57,680 --> 00:26:59,720
Speaker 2: went from minus four hundred to minus three hundred by

549
00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:03,159
Speaker 2: KLOB and even against Newcastle they went from minus to

550
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:05,960
Speaker 2: thirty to minus to ten. So they're sitting at minus

551
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 2: to eighty five right now. I have City product at

552
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:10,640
Speaker 2: minus two sixty five and it obviously is a look

553
00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:13,639
Speaker 2: head spot. Obviously they have to take this one seriously

554
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:15,399
Speaker 2: if they're gonna, you know, can still compete for the

555
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 2: Premier League title. But then they also have that huge

556
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:23,000
Speaker 2: Champions League machiins rbipsix, so it's a very weird like spot.

557
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:26,359
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm passing unless we get some some Crystal

558
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:28,479
Speaker 2: Palace steam, which I hard to believe it will, but

559
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:31,640
Speaker 2: who knows. For whatever reason, the market is is not

560
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 2: like in Manchester City.

561
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:35,920
Speaker 1: Right now, Fulham and Arsenals we go on to Sunday.

562
00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 1: You know you want to I get away in here,

563
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 1: you do.

564
00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:43,639
Speaker 3: I am gonna take this time to recommend it.

565
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:45,680
Speaker 2: Major it's not in the dock. You can't. You can't

566
00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 2: talk about it.

567
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 3: I think I put it so. I think I put

568
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 3: it in my own little dock and didn't didn't transfer

569
00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:52,400
Speaker 3: it over to the main dock. But that's a little

570
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:54,679
Speaker 3: inside baseball. We how we produced the.

571
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 2: In the dock and I deleted it when I saw it.

572
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 3: The the bet was anything plus money Manchester City to

573
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:05,880
Speaker 3: win the league because I think they're a much better

574
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 3: team than Arsenal. I think Arsenal are dealing with a

575
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:10,400
Speaker 3: bunch of injuries. Now I know Gabrielle Jesus is coming back,

576
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:12,440
Speaker 3: but I think there's a bunch of regression coming for

577
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 3: Arsenal and you're getting them at plus money. They're five

578
00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:19,680
Speaker 3: points down. They have the game at home, but it's

579
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:22,040
Speaker 3: not just that game. The reason I like this is

580
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 3: I actually think the fixtures line up really well for City.

581
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 3: Arsenal may go out of Europe, so that will factor

582
00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:32,760
Speaker 3: in here. But Arsenal has at Liverpool, at City, at Newcastle,

583
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 3: Chelsea at home. Those are their four toughest fixtures left.

584
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:38,120
Speaker 3: They also have Brightened at home, so we'll say those

585
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,280
Speaker 3: are the key five. But the four that I think

586
00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:42,200
Speaker 3: are the toughest they have to go on the road

587
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:45,640
Speaker 3: to Liverpool and City and Newcastle. City, on the other hand,

588
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:50,240
Speaker 3: gets to host Liverpool, host Chelsea, host Arsenal and they're

589
00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:54,640
Speaker 3: done with Newcastle and Spurs. So I think the fixtures

590
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 3: with them getting them at home versus Arsenal having to

591
00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 3: go on the road huge difference, especially the Liverpool fixture

592
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 3: because Arsenal going to Liverpool, given that Liverpool seems to

593
00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:06,280
Speaker 3: be improving and getting ready to go on another top

594
00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 3: four run here, that's gonna be really tough. And of

595
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 3: course they go to City and I think they're much

596
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:14,480
Speaker 3: more app to drop points now. Palace have been a

597
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:16,960
Speaker 3: bit of a bogie team for Spur for City. If

598
00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 3: Spurs are the ultimate city bogie team, Palace are like

599
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:22,000
Speaker 3: the junior bogie team because they have had a lot

600
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:23,720
Speaker 3: of weird games, but it's mostly been just like fluke

601
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 3: finishing variants or like Gawayita standing on his head. It

602
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:30,200
Speaker 3: hasn't necessarily been the Palace has done anything special. And

603
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 3: even when Palace is up to nil in the reverse fixture,

604
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:34,760
Speaker 3: they came back to win. So I don't really want

605
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 3: to play this match, but anything plus money on the

606
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:40,520
Speaker 3: city's ends to win the league now is good enough

607
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 3: for me. And I have invested as of yesterday for

608
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 3: the first time in the Premier League futures title market.

609
00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:51,360
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about Arsenal. Then they're playing Fulham.

610
00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 1: Maybe this is a potential landmine for the Gunners. Minus

611
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 1: won seventy five on the road at crazy Cottage, follow

612
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:02,160
Speaker 1: them for seventy five the Jaws plus three twenty. I'm

613
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:06,160
Speaker 1: expecting this number and Fulham to get bigger as we

614
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:08,720
Speaker 1: get already as yeah, and I'm just expecting it to

615
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:13,080
Speaker 1: get bigger and bigger and bigger. It's gonna take a

616
00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 1: little bit of self control not to bet the Cottagers here, BJ,

617
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 1: But what do you.

618
00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 2: F I mean this line is already you know, I'm

619
00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:24,520
Speaker 2: I'm kind of mad at myself. Arsenal was, you know,

620
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 2: opened around minus one fifty and now we're getting up

621
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:28,479
Speaker 2: to minus one eighty minus one ninety and I wouldn't

622
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:31,000
Speaker 2: be surprised if this gets north of minus two hundred

623
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 2: by by match time. But we are recording this on

624
00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:36,160
Speaker 2: Wednesday nights, so you know, we don't know what lineup

625
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:39,800
Speaker 2: Arsenal's gonna play when they beat Sporting in Portugal. But

626
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:44,120
Speaker 2: Fulham still does have some negative regression on the defensive

627
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 2: side of the ball. Just because Brentford put three in

628
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 2: the back of the net, that doesn't mean like all

629
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:51,000
Speaker 2: of this negative regression is just suddenly gone and Fulham

630
00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 2: is back to normal.

631
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:51,920
Speaker 1: No.

632
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:55,960
Speaker 2: They still since the World Cup break, have now allowed

633
00:30:56,600 --> 00:31:01,280
Speaker 2: seven goals off of sixteen point six expected And guess what.

634
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:05,200
Speaker 2: Fulham's defense has been really really bad against the Big

635
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 2: six in the see seven matches. They are allowing on

636
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:11,960
Speaker 2: average two point two to three expected goals for match.

637
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:15,960
Speaker 2: And the last time they played Arsenal, Arsenal did pretty

638
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 2: much exactly what they did to Bournemouth last weekend. They

639
00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:22,000
Speaker 2: tilted the field at eighty three percent, they created two

640
00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 2: point six expected goals, they had sixteen penalty box shots.

641
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:28,520
Speaker 2: And if something like that happens again, and especially with

642
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:31,440
Speaker 2: Fulham still with Al Paulino, which proved to be very

643
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 2: very big for them against Brentford. If Arsenal is able

644
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:36,480
Speaker 2: to create their box midfield and they're able to Invertz

645
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 2: and Shinko and create those numerical advantages in the middle

646
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:41,680
Speaker 2: of the pitch, they are going to rip this Fulham

647
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:44,800
Speaker 2: defense apart. And the other big thing is that the

648
00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:48,720
Speaker 2: last time when these two teams faced off, Arsenal's game

649
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 2: winning goal came off a set piece, which Fulham has

650
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 2: been below average at defending the season. They've allowed the

651
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:56,120
Speaker 2: six most goals off set pieces, while Arsenal is the

652
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 2: second most, has the second most expected goals offic set

653
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:03,320
Speaker 2: pieces offensively. And you know the thing is is like, yeah,

654
00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 2: I get it, Anthony, like plus money on city, Like

655
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:08,080
Speaker 2: they have better expecting goals numbers, and the schedule lines

656
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 2: up for them great. And you know, going into this,

657
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:13,680
Speaker 2: we don't really know what's you know, what Arsenal's going

658
00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:15,840
Speaker 2: to do against Sporting. My guess is they're gonna row

659
00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 2: take quite a few guys and play for the second

660
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 2: leg because they're gonna take the h I would guess

661
00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:23,240
Speaker 2: they take the Premier League more seriously than the Europa League.

662
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:26,120
Speaker 2: But I like Arsenal's team total over one and a half.

663
00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:27,840
Speaker 2: You can find it at minus one forty, which I

664
00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:30,280
Speaker 2: think is awfully cheap for how bad this Fullham defense

665
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 2: has been. H So, you know, I project Arsenal's goal

666
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 2: total of two point seven, so I think you're getting

667
00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 2: tremendous value on the gunners over one and a half

668
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:41,560
Speaker 2: goals and minus one forty.

669
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 1: Also on Sunday, Man United it's minus two seventy five

670
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 1: against Southampton eight to one on the money line, that

671
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:51,560
Speaker 1: draws four to one. Who man so United loses seven

672
00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 1: to nil to Liverpool. As I said, somebody had that

673
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 1: as their best bet on the last podcast, but don't.

674
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:00,400
Speaker 1: That's Mants.

675
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 3: We just you know, did not have United as his

676
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:03,320
Speaker 3: best bet.

677
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 2: I did not.

678
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, first first time all season.

679
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 3: BJ doesn't better re reactions watching that that second half.

680
00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 2: It was just so beautiful. Just the just kept happening

681
00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 2: over and over and over. Every bounce, every bounce in

682
00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 2: Liverpool's way, every bounce didn't go United's away. It was

683
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 2: just so great. It was just so great. You know,

684
00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:26,440
Speaker 2: when you build your entire attack on just direct counter

685
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 2: attacks and like suddenly you have to sit and defend

686
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 2: and you don't get all these wonderful bounces like things

687
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 2: like that maybe can happen now it'll be It's very

688
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:37,200
Speaker 2: funny with with the Liverpool's case. And this is kind

689
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 2: of going off tangent, but you know when we talk

690
00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 2: about expected goals and like progression, well Liverpool was you know,

691
00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:45,600
Speaker 2: they were pretty overdue to you know, have a big

692
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 2: offensive output. Well it all just came in one game.

693
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:49,880
Speaker 2: So like we're back now, we're back to even with Liverpool.

694
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 3: But yeah, they had the two games where they put

695
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:55,600
Speaker 3: up nine and seven. Every other game they've run cold

696
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 3: as ice. And so that's why we take aggregates. That's

697
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:00,760
Speaker 3: why we look at you know, see and long stuff,

698
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 3: and why we you know, can't overreact to one game

699
00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 3: because yeah they lost by seven, they got destroyed, but

700
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:11,040
Speaker 3: it doesn't necessarily mean that United's now awful, although BJ

701
00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:15,640
Speaker 3: will tell you that now I'm passing on United Southampton. Yes,

702
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 3: Southampton won against Leicester at home, but they weren't really

703
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:21,680
Speaker 3: that good. I mean they lost XG despite getting a penalty.

704
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 3: They hung on for dear life, and I think it

705
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:28,600
Speaker 3: is interesting I tweeted this during the game United Liverpool.

706
00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:32,720
Speaker 3: United really struggled building out from the back against Liverpool's press,

707
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:36,399
Speaker 3: just mistake after mistake and this same thing Leads did

708
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:39,400
Speaker 3: to them twice, Arsenal did it. So that's been in

709
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:41,120
Speaker 3: the last couple of months where we've seen cracked with

710
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 3: United building out against pressure. Southampton does like to put

711
00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:48,120
Speaker 3: a little bit of press in, but also they're not

712
00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:50,400
Speaker 3: very good at it relative to those other teams. Even

713
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:53,600
Speaker 3: so they just run the risk of Rashford getting in

714
00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:57,840
Speaker 3: behind twice and scoring at least one and Veghorst, you know,

715
00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:00,680
Speaker 3: linking the play and it just it feels like the

716
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:02,799
Speaker 3: kind of game where United just kind of snaps right

717
00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:04,880
Speaker 3: back and is fine. But they also do have Europa

718
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:08,400
Speaker 3: League on Thursday, so it is a little bit of

719
00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:10,160
Speaker 3: a weird spot. But plus one is not enough for

720
00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:11,560
Speaker 3: me to get involved to so I'm passing.

721
00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:14,439
Speaker 2: That is an important point about Manchester United is that

722
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 2: you know cast Amro for how great he is as

723
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:21,360
Speaker 2: a defensive midfielder, like he's not the best type of

724
00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:23,319
Speaker 2: midfielder that from playing out of the back. And now

725
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 2: they obviously don't have Christian Erickson available, so it's some

726
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:31,440
Speaker 2: combination of Sabitzer or Fred and that's where United kind

727
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:33,440
Speaker 2: of gets caught is they don't have that type of

728
00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:36,840
Speaker 2: guy who can essentially like a guy they wanted Frankie

729
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:39,880
Speaker 2: Deong to go back, get the ball and do the

730
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:42,759
Speaker 2: bill to play from the back. So it's something. It's

731
00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:44,880
Speaker 2: something to note when United's gonna play, you know, a

732
00:35:44,960 --> 00:35:47,440
Speaker 2: lot more passive teams that are gonna sit in low blocks,

733
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:49,240
Speaker 2: who are actually decent in the low blocks, because obviously

734
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:50,680
Speaker 2: you look at the game against Lester, it's like, okay,

735
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 2: yeah they destroyed Lester and they were trying to sit

736
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:55,640
Speaker 2: in the low block. But that is an important point

737
00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:57,880
Speaker 2: because yeah, United's been really really good when they can

738
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:01,759
Speaker 2: just sit deep encounters a lot of these teams. But yeah,

739
00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:04,760
Speaker 2: it's a good point, Anthony, that you know, if suddenly

740
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 2: they're not just getting all these direct counter attacks and

741
00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:08,720
Speaker 2: they actually have to build out from the back against

742
00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 2: good pressing teams, they kind of tend to crumble a

743
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:12,439
Speaker 2: little bit.

744
00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:16,480
Speaker 1: Born With is minus three hundred to be relegated. Southampton's

745
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 1: minus two hundred. Everdon also odds on their minus one

746
00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:22,360
Speaker 1: ten Leads plus one sixty two Forest plus one seventy

747
00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:26,280
Speaker 1: five west Ham Leicester Wolves and Chelse Suseye Crystal Palace

748
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:29,440
Speaker 1: are all between plus four fifty and eight to one.

749
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:33,320
Speaker 1: Coming into this weekend in the drop zone, it's Everdon

750
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 1: at twenty two points, then Southampton and Bourne with both

751
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:37,759
Speaker 1: on twenty one leads also on twenty two, and then

752
00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:41,200
Speaker 1: west Ham at twenty three, Leicster twenty four and forst

753
00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:44,880
Speaker 1: twenty six Wolve's Palace both at twenty seven. So really

754
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:48,200
Speaker 1: fun relegation battle. If you're not me on to west Ham.

755
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:51,520
Speaker 1: They're plus one twenty hosting Aston Villa plus two forty.

756
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:54,960
Speaker 1: The draw is plus two thirty. I like the Hammers

757
00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:59,480
Speaker 1: here at home. I think we're starting to see this

758
00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 1: team head in the right direction a little bit, even

759
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 1: though that they have only won one of their last

760
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:11,080
Speaker 1: three and it's incredibly frustrating to keep going back to

761
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:14,000
Speaker 1: this well. But they I mean they're in sixteenth place

762
00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:16,600
Speaker 1: in the Premier League. I just gave you their their

763
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 1: relegation odds. Their expected goal differential is plus one point four.

764
00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:28,360
Speaker 1: They should be around tenth in the league. They should

765
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:32,080
Speaker 1: probably be head of a team like Fulham. It's the

766
00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:38,480
Speaker 1: defensive master classes of David Moyes that drives this bus

767
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 1: and Villa has been kind of all over the place

768
00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:44,680
Speaker 1: with their results. They are coming in off two back

769
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:48,640
Speaker 1: to back wins, but Palace the one nail game against

770
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 1: Palace that BJ dubbed the most boring game he's ever

771
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:54,920
Speaker 1: seen in prime time outside of the NFL.

772
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:57,439
Speaker 2: And then, of course, to be fair, they didn't stick

773
00:37:57,480 --> 00:37:59,279
Speaker 2: then the ten am window, which was nice.

774
00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, and look, they did play pretty well defensively against Pallace,

775
00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 1: didn't give up anything, but that was at home. Going

776
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 1: on the road should be a different story. They gave

777
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:13,360
Speaker 1: up four point six expected goals to Arsenal and Everton

778
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:16,520
Speaker 1: in the matches before that, three point six the City

779
00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:18,240
Speaker 1: in the match before then, and then two point six

780
00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:21,719
Speaker 1: to Leicester in the match before that, and then they

781
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:24,480
Speaker 1: also gave up more than two goals expected goals to lead.

782
00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:26,919
Speaker 1: So this is just the type of defense that West

783
00:38:26,920 --> 00:38:32,560
Speaker 1: Ham should be able to build a margin where their

784
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:36,680
Speaker 1: defense matters. So I like the Hammers here, BJ, what

785
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 1: about you?

786
00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 2: I do too. I think it's a great bylow spot

787
00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:41,719
Speaker 2: for them. You know, I mentioned the gaming as colost

788
00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:45,720
Speaker 2: the Palace. Palace did get a red card about sixteenth

789
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:47,880
Speaker 2: minute and they only created they had three shots and

790
00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:51,440
Speaker 2: point two expected goals. But the Austinville defense I think

791
00:38:51,520 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 2: is still quite bad. Ever since Stevenage knocked them out

792
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:58,320
Speaker 2: of the FA Cup. Last seven matches you mentioned at Michael,

793
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:01,320
Speaker 2: all of their expected goals they allowed. That's fourteen expected

794
00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:03,600
Speaker 2: goals in their last seven matches. That's not good. Let's

795
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:07,319
Speaker 2: just it's just flat out not good. And I mean listen,

796
00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:10,120
Speaker 2: for west Ham that was that was a terrible defensive

797
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:14,919
Speaker 2: performance against Brighton, but in the previous seven matches before that,

798
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:17,800
Speaker 2: none of their opponents had created over one and a

799
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:20,120
Speaker 2: half expected goals. They're still fifth in the Premier League

800
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:23,040
Speaker 2: and non pellty expected goals allowed. They've been much better

801
00:39:23,080 --> 00:39:25,359
Speaker 2: defensively at home versus on the road one point zero

802
00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:28,239
Speaker 2: way at home versus three point two expected goals per

803
00:39:28,280 --> 00:39:31,080
Speaker 2: match on the road. And the west Ham offense is

804
00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:34,160
Speaker 2: very good when matches become transitional, which I'm guessing this

805
00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 2: match is going to be. It's a good match for

806
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:41,400
Speaker 2: you know, a good I think mirror of what this

807
00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:43,600
Speaker 2: match is probably gonna turn out to be is the

808
00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:47,080
Speaker 2: Everton Aston Villa match where it became very up and down,

809
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:50,440
Speaker 2: where Everton was constantly looking dangerous with direct attacks. They

810
00:39:50,560 --> 00:39:54,200
Speaker 2: mean Everton did create one point nine expected goals. West

811
00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:57,359
Speaker 2: Ham has the third highest direct speed in the Premier League.

812
00:39:57,400 --> 00:39:59,600
Speaker 2: They're very capable of pressing high when they want to

813
00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:03,400
Speaker 2: and up being build up play. Which is a problem

814
00:40:03,440 --> 00:40:06,319
Speaker 2: for aston Villa is that when they play sides, when

815
00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:08,399
Speaker 2: Unayami says, okay, yeah, we can build out of the back.

816
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:10,840
Speaker 2: This team's not a big pressing team similar to Everton,

817
00:40:11,320 --> 00:40:12,719
Speaker 2: We'll just play out of the back, and then those

818
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:15,919
Speaker 2: teams just constantly will force high turnovers, get the ball

819
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 2: moving forward when aston Villa is out of position, and

820
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:21,239
Speaker 2: suddenly that's when you see teams like Lester putting four

821
00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:23,799
Speaker 2: in the back of the net. And I'm just not

822
00:40:23,840 --> 00:40:25,840
Speaker 2: really sure how this aston Villa offense is going to

823
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:29,279
Speaker 2: consistently break down one of the best low blocks in

824
00:40:29,280 --> 00:40:32,560
Speaker 2: the Premier League unless this game again becomes transitional, which

825
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:35,080
Speaker 2: is kind of what at west Ham wants. Aston Villa's

826
00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:37,919
Speaker 2: also gonna be without Catino, He's second on the team

827
00:40:37,920 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 2: in progressive passes and carries per ninety. They're gonna be

828
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:45,440
Speaker 2: without Kamara, who has become one of a rock in

829
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:49,280
Speaker 2: the middle of their midfield. His third second most tackles

830
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:54,200
Speaker 2: plus interceptions for aston Villa. So I have Westdam projected

831
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:56,400
Speaker 2: at minus one oh six. You know, aston Villa has

832
00:40:56,440 --> 00:40:59,920
Speaker 2: not been good way from home, but a minus six

833
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:02,279
Speaker 2: back to gold differential, while west Ham does have a

834
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:04,680
Speaker 2: plus three point three expect a goldfferential at home. So

835
00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:07,080
Speaker 2: I don't love that west Ham has to go to

836
00:41:07,120 --> 00:41:09,719
Speaker 2: Cyprus for a Europa Conference League match on Thursday. I

837
00:41:09,760 --> 00:41:12,279
Speaker 2: don't love that, but again, they're in the relegation fight.

838
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:14,239
Speaker 2: They have to take this very very seriously, so.

839
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 1: I like this.

840
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:17,399
Speaker 2: I think this is just a really good BILO spot

841
00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:18,640
Speaker 2: for west Ham. So I'm with you, Michael. Like the

842
00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:19,680
Speaker 2: Hammer's plus one twenty.

843
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:22,319
Speaker 1: All right, Let's wrap up the Premier League with Newcastle

844
00:41:22,560 --> 00:41:27,400
Speaker 1: and Wolverhampton. Newcastle's minus one fifty four at home, Wolves

845
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:30,959
Speaker 1: plus four to fifty in the draw plus two seventy five.

846
00:41:31,880 --> 00:41:34,680
Speaker 1: Another one that I've got really no interest in. I

847
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:36,919
Speaker 1: think it's going to be a slog kind of sets

848
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:42,640
Speaker 1: up that way. Maybe Newcastle with another draw, but kind

849
00:41:42,680 --> 00:41:45,160
Speaker 1: of probably pass on this eleven thirty. Did they really

850
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:48,280
Speaker 1: did pick some some good standalone matches here this week? Bjay,

851
00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:49,200
Speaker 1: what do you get?

852
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:51,040
Speaker 2: I do like, I think this is a good BILO

853
00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 2: spot here for Newcastle at minus one fifty, I do

854
00:41:54,160 --> 00:41:58,000
Speaker 2: project them north of minus two hundred. So the thing

855
00:41:58,040 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 2: about this is is that I think this match that's

856
00:42:00,160 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 2: pretty well for them for what Wolves likes to do.

857
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 2: You know, Wolves isn't just a low block and direct

858
00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:08,800
Speaker 2: counter attacking style team like No, they're very possession based

859
00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:11,520
Speaker 2: in the defensive half of the pitch, trying to build

860
00:42:11,520 --> 00:42:13,759
Speaker 2: out from the back, which is exactly what Newcastle wants

861
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:15,400
Speaker 2: you to do. They want to set their pressing traps,

862
00:42:15,520 --> 00:42:17,799
Speaker 2: they want to get the ball moving forward and listen,

863
00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:19,520
Speaker 2: you know Newcastle has fallen off a little bit and

864
00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:21,360
Speaker 2: now they're town to sixth place, so you know it's

865
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 2: panic time, right, Well not really, It's been a tough

866
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:26,640
Speaker 2: schedule for them, right, I mean they've played. They got

867
00:42:26,640 --> 00:42:28,799
Speaker 2: beat by Liverpool to nothing at Saint James Park. It

868
00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:31,600
Speaker 2: was their first blemish there this season. They obviously got

869
00:42:31,600 --> 00:42:33,239
Speaker 2: the red card in the twentieth minute after giving up

870
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:35,440
Speaker 2: two goals, but again, like we've mentioned many times, they

871
00:42:35,440 --> 00:42:38,200
Speaker 2: did still create north of two expectables in that match.

872
00:42:38,239 --> 00:42:40,520
Speaker 2: Then they went to the League Cup Final, they lost

873
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:42,680
Speaker 2: Manchester United, all the expected goles pretty even there and

874
00:42:42,719 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 2: then they got pretty solidly beat by Manchester City. But

875
00:42:47,200 --> 00:42:50,600
Speaker 2: now they're coming home after playing three of the best

876
00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:53,319
Speaker 2: three of three Big six clubs facing a Wolves team

877
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:57,440
Speaker 2: that that Tottenham match was just Wolves again, like they

878
00:42:57,480 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 2: just keep doing it over just like Wolves in a nutshell.

879
00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:02,040
Speaker 2: It's just a ton of shots from distance. It's all

880
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:05,560
Speaker 2: low quality chances. And to do that against the Newcastle

881
00:43:05,600 --> 00:43:07,640
Speaker 2: defense that has been one of the best in the

882
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:10,440
Speaker 2: Premier League and is allowing especially at home. I mean

883
00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:13,279
Speaker 2: they've allowed ten expected goals and twelve matches. I do

884
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:15,640
Speaker 2: not know how this Wolve's attack is even going to

885
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:18,840
Speaker 2: threaten the Newcastle box here Nick Pope is back and

886
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:23,160
Speaker 2: goal everything is fine. And the Newcastle attack, you know,

887
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:25,400
Speaker 2: they obviously haven't scored in their last three matches, but

888
00:43:25,440 --> 00:43:29,040
Speaker 2: they have created around four expected goals, so I think

889
00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:30,719
Speaker 2: it's a good by low spot here for Newcastle. I

890
00:43:30,760 --> 00:43:33,719
Speaker 2: projected my minus two fifteen, so I like Eddie house

891
00:43:33,719 --> 00:43:34,880
Speaker 2: side at minus one fifty.

892
00:43:35,360 --> 00:43:38,800
Speaker 1: Anthony, you want to take a step here at Newcastle

893
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:39,360
Speaker 1: and Wolves.

894
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:41,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I bet the under in both of these

895
00:43:41,040 --> 00:43:44,840
Speaker 3: teams matches last week City under three against Newcastle, Wolves

896
00:43:44,920 --> 00:43:48,000
Speaker 3: under two and a half against Tottenham, and both games

897
00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:51,279
Speaker 3: were pretty comfortably under And I thought when I looked

898
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:53,440
Speaker 3: at the schedule and just like first glance, what do

899
00:43:53,480 --> 00:43:54,920
Speaker 3: I think the total will be? I was like, oh, yeah,

900
00:43:54,920 --> 00:43:56,919
Speaker 3: it'll be two in a quarter. I won't have a play.

901
00:43:57,680 --> 00:43:59,040
Speaker 3: And then I went and I looked and I was like,

902
00:43:59,080 --> 00:44:00,839
Speaker 3: wait a minute, two and a half, one, twenty one,

903
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:04,520
Speaker 3: one twenty five, Yes, please, I'll take the under again.

904
00:44:05,120 --> 00:44:07,120
Speaker 3: It's pretty much exactly what I said last week about

905
00:44:07,120 --> 00:44:09,920
Speaker 3: both of these two teams. My opinion has not changed.

906
00:44:09,920 --> 00:44:12,000
Speaker 3: I think the market is too high on this Newcastle attack.

907
00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:15,520
Speaker 3: I still think I believe in the Newcastle defense, which

908
00:44:15,560 --> 00:44:18,080
Speaker 3: really didn't play bad against City. I thought, uh, and

909
00:44:18,160 --> 00:44:19,919
Speaker 3: of course, you know, everything Bja said about the Wolves

910
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:22,879
Speaker 3: attack remains true. This is my fourth Wolves under since

911
00:44:22,960 --> 00:44:26,040
Speaker 3: January twenty second or three, and oho. I think some

912
00:44:26,080 --> 00:44:28,359
Speaker 3: of the goals they scored when Lopeteki first came in,

913
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:30,399
Speaker 3: they did play like a two to one, like three

914
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:32,120
Speaker 3: straight two to one kind of games, and there was

915
00:44:32,120 --> 00:44:34,279
Speaker 3: a three nil in there. I guess it's driven the

916
00:44:34,280 --> 00:44:36,200
Speaker 3: market up. The perception of this team is that they're

917
00:44:36,239 --> 00:44:37,960
Speaker 3: a good attack now and they're you know, sitting at

918
00:44:38,000 --> 00:44:41,480
Speaker 3: two and a half. Remember Wolves over started because those

919
00:44:41,480 --> 00:44:43,080
Speaker 3: totals were sitting at to two and a quarter and

920
00:44:43,160 --> 00:44:45,560
Speaker 3: I was like, these are too low. Like this defense stinks. Well,

921
00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:47,640
Speaker 3: their defense has gotten better, the attack has not gotten

922
00:44:47,960 --> 00:44:49,400
Speaker 3: any better at all. They still stink.

923
00:44:49,880 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 1: Now.

924
00:44:50,040 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 3: The totals are sitting at two and a half, so

925
00:44:51,840 --> 00:44:55,640
Speaker 3: I'm gonna take the under uh and expect this to

926
00:44:55,640 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 3: be a one or two goal game. Again, I do

927
00:44:57,239 --> 00:44:59,440
Speaker 3: think Newcastle will win. I agree with BJ they have

928
00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:02,600
Speaker 3: had a tough on of fixtures at home against Wolves.

929
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:07,200
Speaker 3: Not the toughest of fixtures. There are tougher and they're

930
00:45:07,200 --> 00:45:09,960
Speaker 3: definitely easier. It's kind of in the middle, but I

931
00:45:10,000 --> 00:45:13,360
Speaker 3: agree that this will be I think this will be

932
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:14,080
Speaker 3: a low scoring.

933
00:45:13,880 --> 00:45:19,520
Speaker 1: Game, all right, Bundesliga. I'm gonna save mine for the

934
00:45:19,600 --> 00:45:24,040
Speaker 1: underdog section, so we'll go to you beaja Yeah.

935
00:45:24,040 --> 00:45:27,440
Speaker 2: I like Clone Friday afternoon against Bochum. I think it's

936
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 2: a really good spot for them. They haven't scored in

937
00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:32,800
Speaker 2: three matches, but they have created about two and a

938
00:45:32,840 --> 00:45:37,319
Speaker 2: half expected goals. And this Bochum defense is just it's

939
00:45:37,440 --> 00:45:39,600
Speaker 2: one of the worst in the Bundesliga. They're allowing the

940
00:45:39,680 --> 00:45:42,480
Speaker 2: one point nine to five non penalty expectacles match. They're

941
00:45:42,520 --> 00:45:47,200
Speaker 2: dead last in both nonpelling expectacles four and against. They

942
00:45:47,280 --> 00:45:50,279
Speaker 2: have shown no signs of improving on defense. The last

943
00:45:50,320 --> 00:45:55,279
Speaker 2: time to these two teams faced off Cologne it was

944
00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:58,080
Speaker 2: at one one draw. Clone created over two expected goals

945
00:45:58,120 --> 00:46:02,480
Speaker 2: and held Bocum to just point to I project Cologne

946
00:46:02,560 --> 00:46:04,759
Speaker 2: north of minus two hundred. You know, Anthony's been mentioned,

947
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:06,759
Speaker 2: I'm just betting this team every single week. Well here

948
00:46:06,760 --> 00:46:08,919
Speaker 2: I am betting them once again. So I like Colon

949
00:46:08,960 --> 00:46:09,839
Speaker 2: minus one fifty five.

950
00:46:10,680 --> 00:46:12,880
Speaker 3: They did cash for me last week. Not on the

951
00:46:12,880 --> 00:46:15,160
Speaker 3: money line though, of course another noil no for un.

952
00:46:15,560 --> 00:46:18,279
Speaker 2: Regret of the week was not taking the zero zero draw.

953
00:46:20,040 --> 00:46:22,680
Speaker 3: Colonne never looked like either team was going to score.

954
00:46:22,480 --> 00:46:25,320
Speaker 2: It before before we get off this, which reminded Meka

955
00:46:25,400 --> 00:46:28,760
Speaker 2: with bet zero zero draw in Unyan Derby on Thursday

956
00:46:28,800 --> 00:46:29,480
Speaker 2: in the Europa League.

957
00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:34,040
Speaker 1: But we'll do that, Anthony, all right, it's time.

958
00:46:35,239 --> 00:46:35,799
Speaker 2: I'll do this.

959
00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:37,400
Speaker 1: It's time.

960
00:46:37,880 --> 00:46:42,440
Speaker 3: It's time again, my friends. But Rushia muchin Gladbach plus

961
00:46:42,640 --> 00:46:46,440
Speaker 3: one point five and I'll be discussing them further in

962
00:46:46,480 --> 00:46:49,359
Speaker 3: the in the money line section as to why I

963
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:51,319
Speaker 3: like it. This is my little teaser. I'll give the

964
00:46:51,320 --> 00:46:53,240
Speaker 3: full handicap in the money line section.

965
00:46:54,120 --> 00:46:57,160
Speaker 1: Let's move on to La Liga. I'm gonna be on

966
00:46:57,239 --> 00:47:02,800
Speaker 1: Bill Bao against Barcelona, my boys from the Basque country, Anthony,

967
00:47:02,840 --> 00:47:03,879
Speaker 1: you also have a play in this one.

968
00:47:03,840 --> 00:47:08,040
Speaker 3: Right, I do like the over. LaLiga has been an

969
00:47:08,640 --> 00:47:11,719
Speaker 3: awful watch since the World Cup, unless except for that

970
00:47:11,760 --> 00:47:13,759
Speaker 3: at Leti match against Sevilla, we tended like six to two.

971
00:47:15,080 --> 00:47:17,960
Speaker 3: LaLiga has been an under machine since the World Cup.

972
00:47:18,040 --> 00:47:20,520
Speaker 3: They have nobody can score goals, nobody can finish chances.

973
00:47:21,520 --> 00:47:25,040
Speaker 3: XG is down, but finishing is down even more, and

974
00:47:25,239 --> 00:47:27,480
Speaker 3: the market has overreacted on some of these games. There's

975
00:47:27,480 --> 00:47:29,760
Speaker 3: a few games this weekend, but I think the totals

976
00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:32,520
Speaker 3: are low. One of them is this game at Leti

977
00:47:32,520 --> 00:47:35,400
Speaker 3: and Barsa. We've talked over and over again about Barsa's

978
00:47:35,400 --> 00:47:38,080
Speaker 3: defense and how they've held up, but haven't been quite

979
00:47:38,080 --> 00:47:40,279
Speaker 3: as good as maybe the market and the numbers and

980
00:47:40,400 --> 00:47:43,200
Speaker 3: the XG suggests, and I think that's true. I think

981
00:47:43,200 --> 00:47:45,440
Speaker 3: it's a good spot to fade them. And I think

982
00:47:45,440 --> 00:47:48,400
Speaker 3: both teams scored in this match, and I don't dislike

983
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:51,200
Speaker 3: a shot on over two and a half as well. Really,

984
00:47:51,239 --> 00:47:55,600
Speaker 3: what happens sometimes game state matters in totals much more

985
00:47:55,640 --> 00:47:58,080
Speaker 3: than sides, of course, But when you get a zero

986
00:47:58,200 --> 00:48:00,759
Speaker 3: zero game, you know and you have an underdog who

987
00:48:00,760 --> 00:48:02,400
Speaker 3: doesn't want to take any chances, doesn't want to make

988
00:48:02,400 --> 00:48:05,919
Speaker 3: the game transitional once to keep the game slow. You'll

989
00:48:05,920 --> 00:48:08,719
Speaker 3: still get scoring opportunities, but if they never go in,

990
00:48:09,400 --> 00:48:11,840
Speaker 3: the team never has a reason to change their their approach.

991
00:48:12,160 --> 00:48:14,839
Speaker 3: But if you get that one early goal or that

992
00:48:14,880 --> 00:48:17,120
Speaker 3: one first half, you know we get more first half

993
00:48:17,160 --> 00:48:20,600
Speaker 3: goals which XG and regression to just is coming, then

994
00:48:20,680 --> 00:48:22,359
Speaker 3: everything changes, right. The team has to come out, they

995
00:48:22,400 --> 00:48:24,000
Speaker 3: to play more. It's kind of similar to what we

996
00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:27,040
Speaker 3: said during the World Cup, where like you know, NEI

997
00:48:27,040 --> 00:48:28,479
Speaker 3: of those teams are going to play not to lose,

998
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:30,279
Speaker 3: but if one goal happens, they have to change. And

999
00:48:30,320 --> 00:48:31,920
Speaker 3: I think that's kind of similar to what's been happening

1000
00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:34,719
Speaker 3: in Laaliga, and eventually we will see some more goals,

1001
00:48:34,800 --> 00:48:35,960
Speaker 3: and I think this is a good game for it.

1002
00:48:36,000 --> 00:48:38,200
Speaker 3: So I like over and BTTs.

1003
00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:39,960
Speaker 1: Anything for you, PJ and Laaliga.

1004
00:48:40,080 --> 00:48:43,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, how about Girona at Letti Co Madrid over two

1005
00:48:43,760 --> 00:48:46,920
Speaker 2: and a half at plus one fifteen? Forget everything you

1006
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:50,520
Speaker 2: thought you knew about Diego Simioni, Michael, because it is

1007
00:48:50,560 --> 00:48:54,360
Speaker 2: that Lettico team now is an offensive jug or not

1008
00:48:55,080 --> 00:48:59,560
Speaker 2: just put six past. Sevilla created three expected goals this

1009
00:48:59,600 --> 00:49:03,640
Speaker 2: past weekend. But the defensive numbers are down quite a

1010
00:49:03,719 --> 00:49:06,879
Speaker 2: bit for Athletico this season. They're now eighth in non

1011
00:49:06,880 --> 00:49:10,000
Speaker 2: penalty expected goals, all the other defensive metrics they're sitting

1012
00:49:10,000 --> 00:49:11,959
Speaker 2: around seventh and eighth. They're still the number one team

1013
00:49:13,040 --> 00:49:17,200
Speaker 2: in LALI in terms of final third to penalty box

1014
00:49:17,360 --> 00:49:22,600
Speaker 2: entry conversion rate. But this Yarona team, man, they if

1015
00:49:22,640 --> 00:49:24,840
Speaker 2: you want to look at loligovers, they're the one carrying it.

1016
00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:28,440
Speaker 2: I mean they're coming off a two to three match

1017
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:31,680
Speaker 2: with Gaitafe, which, if you know anything about Gatape historically

1018
00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:34,480
Speaker 2: is one of the most defensive teams in Spain. The

1019
00:49:34,520 --> 00:49:36,560
Speaker 2: match before that they played they won a three to

1020
00:49:36,600 --> 00:49:41,120
Speaker 2: two thriller with Athletic Bilbao. They put six past Almeria

1021
00:49:41,239 --> 00:49:43,359
Speaker 2: the week before that, and since we came back from

1022
00:49:43,360 --> 00:49:45,320
Speaker 2: the World Cup. I mean, they're averaging one and a

1023
00:49:45,360 --> 00:49:47,880
Speaker 2: half expected goals per ninety minutes in the most defensive

1024
00:49:47,960 --> 00:49:51,480
Speaker 2: league in Europe, in Europe's top five leagues. So I

1025
00:49:51,480 --> 00:49:53,279
Speaker 2: think we're going to see another back and forth type

1026
00:49:53,320 --> 00:49:57,400
Speaker 2: match here, especially with Athletico not being in Europe anymore,

1027
00:49:57,400 --> 00:49:59,719
Speaker 2: They're going to be very aggressive and still keep that

1028
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:03,200
Speaker 2: top spot in or keep the top four spot in Spain.

1029
00:50:03,320 --> 00:50:05,600
Speaker 2: So and I do project around two point e goal

1030
00:50:05,680 --> 00:50:07,040
Speaker 2: for this match, so over two and a half the

1031
00:50:07,120 --> 00:50:12,760
Speaker 2: plus one fifteen in Girona and Diego Simoni's Athletico Madrid, Syria.

1032
00:50:12,840 --> 00:50:15,160
Speaker 1: Ah, Anthony, what do you have?

1033
00:50:15,719 --> 00:50:18,040
Speaker 3: It's a little bit sacrilegious on this podcast to bet

1034
00:50:18,080 --> 00:50:20,000
Speaker 3: against Jose Marino and Roma, but I actually think this

1035
00:50:20,040 --> 00:50:20,800
Speaker 3: is a decent spot.

1036
00:50:21,000 --> 00:50:22,759
Speaker 1: I have not actually a video. They put out a

1037
00:50:22,800 --> 00:50:27,120
Speaker 1: beautiful video Joseph of Jose and the crowd singing Roma Roma.

1038
00:50:27,200 --> 00:50:29,680
Speaker 3: If it's just the win against you the other night, Yeah,

1039
00:50:29,680 --> 00:50:30,719
Speaker 3: we just we just love them.

1040
00:50:30,719 --> 00:50:32,920
Speaker 1: We was amazing so much. You could use him at

1041
00:50:32,920 --> 00:50:33,520
Speaker 1: Tottenham right now.

1042
00:50:33,560 --> 00:50:37,239
Speaker 3: I can tell you that home underdog to Juventus. Holy cow. Uh,

1043
00:50:37,320 --> 00:50:39,359
Speaker 3: the game is pretty even, but we won.

1044
00:50:39,600 --> 00:50:44,640
Speaker 2: So they closed right around two to one, which is insane. Yeah,

1045
00:50:44,640 --> 00:50:46,719
Speaker 2: I know, Iau Tamay Abraham was out or he was

1046
00:50:46,719 --> 00:50:49,200
Speaker 2: on the bench, but still yeah.

1047
00:50:49,200 --> 00:50:52,360
Speaker 3: So this is a sandwich spot for Roma Europa League.

1048
00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:56,359
Speaker 3: I'm expecting a very competitive tie with associate Dood. So

1049
00:50:56,920 --> 00:50:59,719
Speaker 3: they have so swallow at home. I think so swallow.

1050
00:51:00,080 --> 00:51:01,680
Speaker 3: The one thing I don't like about to swallow that

1051
00:51:01,719 --> 00:51:03,160
Speaker 3: the thing that scares me, and I think that, you know,

1052
00:51:03,160 --> 00:51:06,239
Speaker 3: the main reason that they have underperformed this season is

1053
00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:08,720
Speaker 3: that they have really bad goalkeeping. And if you watch

1054
00:51:08,719 --> 00:51:10,400
Speaker 3: it and you look at the history, like it's a

1055
00:51:10,440 --> 00:51:14,080
Speaker 3: pretty consistent thing that they are not getting plus goalkeeping.

1056
00:51:14,680 --> 00:51:17,759
Speaker 3: But Roma's kind of the one good team that I'm

1057
00:51:17,800 --> 00:51:19,799
Speaker 3: less worried about the goalkeeping with because they just don't

1058
00:51:19,800 --> 00:51:21,520
Speaker 3: get them any shots. I mean, this is a Marino team,

1059
00:51:21,600 --> 00:51:23,279
Speaker 3: right they get up a goal, they're gonna sit on it.

1060
00:51:24,239 --> 00:51:26,920
Speaker 3: They are right around tenth in the league in shots

1061
00:51:26,920 --> 00:51:28,719
Speaker 3: per ninety So yes, there might be like one or

1062
00:51:28,719 --> 00:51:31,640
Speaker 3: two big chances that Roma will inevitably create here, because

1063
00:51:31,640 --> 00:51:33,480
Speaker 3: that's how their attack has really built. But they're not

1064
00:51:33,520 --> 00:51:36,799
Speaker 3: going to be unloading shots from distance or looking to

1065
00:51:36,880 --> 00:51:40,600
Speaker 3: exploit that weakness as much. And I do think they're

1066
00:51:40,680 --> 00:51:43,680
Speaker 3: potentially flat here. Just Wallow continues to be a good

1067
00:51:43,680 --> 00:51:46,560
Speaker 3: by low. They've been playing a lot better themselves. So

1068
00:51:46,600 --> 00:51:50,359
Speaker 3: I'm gonna actually bet against Roma. It's sitting at plus one.

1069
00:51:50,560 --> 00:51:53,680
Speaker 3: The best number I saw is minus one forty versus Swallow,

1070
00:51:53,719 --> 00:51:55,200
Speaker 3: So I'm actually waiting a little bit. I think it

1071
00:51:55,320 --> 00:51:59,880
Speaker 3: might come down it depends on you know what Marino does.

1072
00:52:00,080 --> 00:52:03,080
Speaker 3: Abraham too, but I will be looking to play so swallow.

1073
00:52:03,120 --> 00:52:04,560
Speaker 3: And of course if it is a one goal lead,

1074
00:52:04,600 --> 00:52:06,960
Speaker 3: Marinho doesn't even try to score, so that that one

1075
00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:09,440
Speaker 3: is key because if it's one toil or two one

1076
00:52:09,520 --> 00:52:12,520
Speaker 3: late like Roma, just it's it's time to park the bus.

1077
00:52:12,520 --> 00:52:13,960
Speaker 3: They don't even really try to get a third so

1078
00:52:14,200 --> 00:52:17,560
Speaker 3: or a second goal to go ahead. So I like

1079
00:52:17,680 --> 00:52:20,200
Speaker 3: the swallow spot waiting on the number.

1080
00:52:20,760 --> 00:52:21,879
Speaker 1: Be you anything for you here?

1081
00:52:22,200 --> 00:52:25,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have a grudge. Bet it's a Cymlan team

1082
00:52:25,600 --> 00:52:27,560
Speaker 2: total over two and a half at plus one twenty

1083
00:52:27,640 --> 00:52:31,640
Speaker 2: against my boys Saler Knee Tana, who are going to

1084
00:52:31,719 --> 00:52:36,719
Speaker 2: survive relegation yet again with the worst expectacle differential in

1085
00:52:36,800 --> 00:52:41,399
Speaker 2: vade them. This is the worst defense in Italy. They're

1086
00:52:41,440 --> 00:52:44,160
Speaker 2: dead last and non gonally expected goals, they're dead last

1087
00:52:44,200 --> 00:52:46,919
Speaker 2: and progressive pass and dribbles allowed, they're second to last

1088
00:52:46,920 --> 00:52:50,680
Speaker 2: and box entries, final third entries allowed, basically everything that

1089
00:52:50,840 --> 00:52:54,080
Speaker 2: you would not want against a team like ACEI Milan,

1090
00:52:54,080 --> 00:52:57,160
Speaker 2: who is very very good at progressing the ball up

1091
00:52:57,160 --> 00:53:00,240
Speaker 2: the pitch. Obviously, this is a coming off a Champans

1092
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:02,960
Speaker 2: League match on the road at Tottenham. But the top

1093
00:53:02,960 --> 00:53:06,120
Speaker 2: four battle in Syria is really really good right now.

1094
00:53:06,160 --> 00:53:08,560
Speaker 2: And now it looked like today like Juventus might get

1095
00:53:08,600 --> 00:53:11,320
Speaker 2: out of their fifteen point deduction with a clerical error,

1096
00:53:11,880 --> 00:53:14,239
Speaker 2: which is going to be hilarious. I haven't read too

1097
00:53:14,320 --> 00:53:15,839
Speaker 2: much into it, but I saw a headline that said

1098
00:53:15,840 --> 00:53:18,080
Speaker 2: they might get out of it. So but again, so

1099
00:53:18,160 --> 00:53:20,760
Speaker 2: ast Milan has to take this match very, very seriously.

1100
00:53:21,120 --> 00:53:24,160
Speaker 2: They've been putting in good offensive outputs as of late.

1101
00:53:24,200 --> 00:53:27,719
Speaker 2: They put over over two expected goals against Manza. The

1102
00:53:27,800 --> 00:53:32,240
Speaker 2: match after that they put up one point eight against Atalanta,

1103
00:53:32,360 --> 00:53:35,200
Speaker 2: who is also a very good defensive team in Salarnyitana.

1104
00:53:35,239 --> 00:53:37,239
Speaker 2: When they have to face one of these top six

1105
00:53:37,320 --> 00:53:41,040
Speaker 2: to seven type teams in Syria A, they just crumble.

1106
00:53:41,080 --> 00:53:42,800
Speaker 2: I mean they've allowed three expect to goals of to

1107
00:53:42,880 --> 00:53:45,799
Speaker 2: Lanta over three, to Lazzio two point two to that

1108
00:53:45,880 --> 00:53:49,359
Speaker 2: crappy Juventus team, two point eight to Fiorentina over three

1109
00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:54,480
Speaker 2: expected goals to to swallow even but even the last

1110
00:53:54,480 --> 00:53:59,600
Speaker 2: match against Milan absolutely crushed them. Milan created over two

1111
00:53:59,800 --> 00:54:02,680
Speaker 2: and half expected goals. They won the match to nothing.

1112
00:54:02,680 --> 00:54:04,840
Speaker 2: They were constantly tilting the field and threatening sal An

1113
00:54:04,880 --> 00:54:08,680
Speaker 2: Atana's penalty areas. So I projects lew On for two

1114
00:54:08,719 --> 00:54:10,480
Speaker 2: point seven goals, So over two and a half at

1115
00:54:10,480 --> 00:54:13,840
Speaker 2: plus one twenty is a fantastic price for me. And

1116
00:54:13,920 --> 00:54:17,239
Speaker 2: I think we're gonna see another offensive explosion like we

1117
00:54:17,320 --> 00:54:21,200
Speaker 2: saw in the match where Atlanta beat salary tonat eight

1118
00:54:21,239 --> 00:54:24,759
Speaker 2: to two, because they've kept two clean sheets against Manzan Sampdoria.

1119
00:54:24,840 --> 00:54:25,800
Speaker 2: But I can see it over two.

1120
00:54:25,640 --> 00:54:28,279
Speaker 1: Expected goals all right on to league.

1121
00:54:28,280 --> 00:54:31,719
Speaker 3: Oh I maybe on the other side there we'll see

1122
00:54:31,719 --> 00:54:36,760
Speaker 3: just despite the Jay Samory Salitana, he doesn't he doesn't

1123
00:54:36,800 --> 00:54:39,480
Speaker 3: respect them. But Ocho is a goal and so we

1124
00:54:39,600 --> 00:54:41,239
Speaker 3: have the factor that in that he's worth like a

1125
00:54:41,280 --> 00:54:41,960
Speaker 3: goal per.

1126
00:54:41,840 --> 00:54:46,239
Speaker 1: Match, just like Michael Keane. Uh, Anthony, what do you

1127
00:54:46,239 --> 00:54:47,120
Speaker 1: got for us? In France?

1128
00:54:47,960 --> 00:54:51,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, Friday afternoon Leo plays Leone. Should be a good match.

1129
00:54:52,120 --> 00:54:54,640
Speaker 3: Excited for it. These teams have played twice this season.

1130
00:54:55,320 --> 00:54:57,200
Speaker 3: Leo was the better team in both matches, didn't win

1131
00:54:57,239 --> 00:54:59,920
Speaker 3: either of them. Now they're at home only minus one ten.

1132
00:55:00,040 --> 00:55:01,600
Speaker 3: Tea's a little short to me. I don't have a

1133
00:55:01,600 --> 00:55:03,839
Speaker 3: full preview in the action app. You can read it there.

1134
00:55:04,680 --> 00:55:07,240
Speaker 3: It'll be up on Thursday and Beatja.

1135
00:55:08,160 --> 00:55:11,279
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go a Jacquesio on the island at home,

1136
00:55:11,440 --> 00:55:14,000
Speaker 2: Grono Bette at plus one oh five. They're one of

1137
00:55:14,040 --> 00:55:18,480
Speaker 2: the more they're one of the more underrated teams throughout France.

1138
00:55:18,560 --> 00:55:21,680
Speaker 2: I mean even at home they have you know, they're

1139
00:55:22,160 --> 00:55:24,879
Speaker 2: north of a minus ten actual goal differential. They actually

1140
00:55:24,880 --> 00:55:28,239
Speaker 2: have a positive expected goal differential on the island, and

1141
00:55:28,280 --> 00:55:32,200
Speaker 2: really it's just a very very underrated attack. I mean

1142
00:55:32,239 --> 00:55:35,720
Speaker 2: they've scored nineteen goals off of a little over thirty

1143
00:55:35,800 --> 00:55:38,800
Speaker 2: expected and even defensively they've given up forty seven goals

1144
00:55:38,960 --> 00:55:42,399
Speaker 2: off of thirty five expected. Very very underrated side who's

1145
00:55:42,440 --> 00:55:44,320
Speaker 2: actually been pretty good at home. They did put in

1146
00:55:44,400 --> 00:55:46,480
Speaker 2: a good offensive performance and then the last time got

1147
00:55:46,520 --> 00:55:49,319
Speaker 2: some positive aggression back when they played Troy created over

1148
00:55:49,360 --> 00:55:51,880
Speaker 2: two and a half expected goals against them in Montpelier.

1149
00:55:51,920 --> 00:55:53,319
Speaker 2: If you know what name about France, they're just like

1150
00:55:53,360 --> 00:55:55,719
Speaker 2: this team that's always gonna be sitting there in like

1151
00:55:55,800 --> 00:55:58,440
Speaker 2: fourteenth or fifteenth place. They're never gonna be really threatening

1152
00:55:58,440 --> 00:56:01,000
Speaker 2: for relegation, they're never gonna be battling for European spot,

1153
00:56:01,440 --> 00:56:04,680
Speaker 2: and they're coming off a five zero win over on Jaers,

1154
00:56:04,880 --> 00:56:09,200
Speaker 2: who have completely quit on this season. They've been overforming

1155
00:56:09,239 --> 00:56:11,120
Speaker 2: as of late. I mean they've scored ten goals up

1156
00:56:11,160 --> 00:56:14,399
Speaker 2: around seven expected in their last three matches. The last

1157
00:56:14,440 --> 00:56:17,879
Speaker 2: time these two teams faced off, Montpellier won two nothing,

1158
00:56:17,920 --> 00:56:20,719
Speaker 2: but expected goals was pretty even. So I really don't

1159
00:56:20,719 --> 00:56:23,080
Speaker 2: think that this is a Jacquesio team, especially on the

1160
00:56:23,120 --> 00:56:26,480
Speaker 2: island where they're very very underrated, should be an underdog

1161
00:56:26,560 --> 00:56:29,880
Speaker 2: at home. So a Jaxi odrawno bet for me in France.

1162
00:56:30,120 --> 00:56:33,920
Speaker 1: All right, time for the underdog parlay got a bit

1163
00:56:33,920 --> 00:56:38,040
Speaker 1: of a whopper here. I think I actually have the

1164
00:56:38,080 --> 00:56:40,439
Speaker 1: shortest dog of the three of us for the first

1165
00:56:40,480 --> 00:56:44,640
Speaker 1: time maybe ever. But it's not that short, Anthony, you

1166
00:56:44,680 --> 00:56:46,200
Speaker 1: can go first, yeah.

1167
00:56:46,040 --> 00:56:48,560
Speaker 3: So I tease it already. It's bruci much in glad Boch.

1168
00:56:49,080 --> 00:56:50,680
Speaker 3: You can find them as high as plus six point

1169
00:56:50,680 --> 00:56:54,320
Speaker 3: fifty against Rvey Leipzig and look on a week to

1170
00:56:54,360 --> 00:56:57,640
Speaker 3: week basis, I have I've pretty much given up betting Goldbach.

1171
00:56:57,640 --> 00:56:59,279
Speaker 3: I mean, the defensive numbers have fallen off. They have

1172
00:56:59,360 --> 00:57:02,360
Speaker 3: not been as consistent as they were, you know a

1173
00:57:02,440 --> 00:57:05,080
Speaker 3: year or two ago, when they were much better and competing,

1174
00:57:05,120 --> 00:57:06,879
Speaker 3: you know, week in week out in those top six,

1175
00:57:07,360 --> 00:57:10,560
Speaker 3: top four places. They've fallen off, you know, and even

1176
00:57:10,600 --> 00:57:12,400
Speaker 3: after the big win against Bayern, would they do They

1177
00:57:12,400 --> 00:57:16,840
Speaker 3: went to Mines and got roped three nail. So now

1178
00:57:17,240 --> 00:57:20,400
Speaker 3: we get Leipzig in a horrendous spot with the Champions

1179
00:57:20,480 --> 00:57:24,560
Speaker 3: League looming. Leipzig just had their dreams of the title

1180
00:57:24,560 --> 00:57:27,600
Speaker 3: pretty much dashed at Dortmund in a two to one loss.

1181
00:57:27,760 --> 00:57:30,240
Speaker 3: They don't really have a realistic chance at the title anymore,

1182
00:57:30,520 --> 00:57:32,000
Speaker 3: and so I think at least for a couple of

1183
00:57:32,000 --> 00:57:34,280
Speaker 3: weeks you're going to see them focusing on this city match.

1184
00:57:35,160 --> 00:57:38,440
Speaker 3: And what that means is that Glodboch is ripe to

1185
00:57:38,520 --> 00:57:42,040
Speaker 3: pick them off. And it's not like Goldboch doesn't love

1186
00:57:42,080 --> 00:57:46,000
Speaker 3: an upset. They've beaten Leipzig at home earlier this season,

1187
00:57:46,440 --> 00:57:51,480
Speaker 3: destroyed them. They rolled Dortmund and they beat Byron and

1188
00:57:51,520 --> 00:57:52,840
Speaker 3: I know there was a red card in the Byron game,

1189
00:57:52,880 --> 00:57:54,560
Speaker 3: but they won the xtally in all three of those games.

1190
00:57:54,600 --> 00:57:58,400
Speaker 3: So it's not like Godboch is getting fortunate to win

1191
00:57:58,440 --> 00:58:03,760
Speaker 3: these matches. They're they're they play up well and why kone,

1192
00:58:04,040 --> 00:58:05,720
Speaker 3: especially in the midfield, they're very good at when they

1193
00:58:05,720 --> 00:58:09,560
Speaker 3: do turn possession. They like to be a possession team

1194
00:58:09,600 --> 00:58:11,120
Speaker 3: that doesn't really press. They kind of sit off a

1195
00:58:11,120 --> 00:58:13,640
Speaker 3: little bit, but when they play these better teams, they're

1196
00:58:13,640 --> 00:58:16,880
Speaker 3: actually very good at kind of adapting winning the ball

1197
00:58:16,920 --> 00:58:19,240
Speaker 3: and then immediately springing guys in behind. You saw that

1198
00:58:19,280 --> 00:58:21,680
Speaker 3: in the Bayern match if you watched it, and so

1199
00:58:22,720 --> 00:58:24,600
Speaker 3: I think that will work against this Leipstick team. I mean,

1200
00:58:24,640 --> 00:58:26,880
Speaker 3: that's how Dortmann beat them in the first half. So

1201
00:58:27,120 --> 00:58:30,480
Speaker 3: I'm going to roll with the Foals plus six fifty

1202
00:58:30,520 --> 00:58:31,960
Speaker 3: and I'm going to take them on the spread as well.

1203
00:58:32,640 --> 00:58:36,120
Speaker 1: Let's stay in Germany. I like Shakka plus three seventy

1204
00:58:36,160 --> 00:58:41,840
Speaker 1: five against Portman in the Revier Derby. Like I mentioned

1205
00:58:41,840 --> 00:58:44,919
Speaker 1: at the top of the show, Dortmund one of three

1206
00:58:44,920 --> 00:58:48,680
Speaker 1: teams in Europe that has yet to lose a match

1207
00:58:49,080 --> 00:58:51,840
Speaker 1: since the World Cup. They're due for some some poor

1208
00:58:51,920 --> 00:58:56,480
Speaker 1: finishing luck twenty two goals on about sixteen expected since then,

1209
00:58:56,960 --> 00:59:01,439
Speaker 1: and they also haven't really played that toughest schedule since

1210
00:59:01,440 --> 00:59:03,920
Speaker 1: the World Cup, so maybe the numbers are a little inflated.

1211
00:59:03,920 --> 00:59:06,520
Speaker 1: They also just lost to Chelsea on Tuesday in a

1212
00:59:07,240 --> 00:59:10,280
Speaker 1: Champions League match where they were up one nil heading

1213
00:59:10,280 --> 00:59:12,479
Speaker 1: to Stanford Bridge a little bit of a letdown spot.

1214
00:59:12,520 --> 00:59:16,680
Speaker 1: I know it's a derby, but not a great spot regardless, Shatka.

1215
00:59:16,760 --> 00:59:19,040
Speaker 1: By the way, they're in the middle of a relegation

1216
00:59:19,120 --> 00:59:23,040
Speaker 1: scrap and they seem to have just throwing the book

1217
00:59:23,080 --> 00:59:27,280
Speaker 1: at the defense at being a defensive side. One goal

1218
00:59:27,560 --> 00:59:31,560
Speaker 1: allowed in their last six matches in the Bundesliga. It's

1219
00:59:31,960 --> 00:59:36,360
Speaker 1: third six point three expectacles, So yeah, some defensive regression,

1220
00:59:36,360 --> 00:59:41,200
Speaker 1: but it's one expectacle allowed per match for this team

1221
00:59:42,040 --> 00:59:46,560
Speaker 1: since the World Cup, basically only five total goals in

1222
00:59:46,600 --> 00:59:49,520
Speaker 1: those games too. Would they have four nil nil draws

1223
00:59:49,520 --> 00:59:54,040
Speaker 1: in a row in the Bundesliga. This is beautiful. Turn

1224
00:59:54,080 --> 00:59:55,440
Speaker 1: this thing into a rock if I get him at

1225
00:59:55,440 --> 00:59:58,080
Speaker 1: plus three seventy five of which should be a rocous atmosphere.

1226
00:59:59,480 --> 01:00:02,680
Speaker 2: Got kind of a They're not They're not the worst

1227
01:00:02,680 --> 01:00:04,560
Speaker 2: team in the Bundesliga.

1228
01:00:04,880 --> 01:00:06,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a this is a smash spot that

1229
01:00:06,600 --> 01:00:09,240
Speaker 1: there they should be minus one ten. I'm just kidding,

1230
01:00:09,520 --> 01:00:12,480
Speaker 1: but no, they it's a good price in a derby,

1231
01:00:12,760 --> 01:00:16,120
Speaker 1: you throw the book out the window at as.

1232
01:00:16,920 --> 01:00:18,000
Speaker 2: Even money both way.

1233
01:00:18,760 --> 01:00:21,040
Speaker 1: So Shaca for me, PJ, what do you have.

1234
01:00:21,640 --> 01:00:24,040
Speaker 2: Al Maria four to one? I want to take a

1235
01:00:24,040 --> 01:00:28,200
Speaker 2: guess who they're playing. Sevilla my favorite teams, my favorite spot,

1236
01:00:28,320 --> 01:00:30,880
Speaker 2: my favorite thing about this entire season, with all the leagues,

1237
01:00:31,160 --> 01:00:33,520
Speaker 2: it's just fading Seville a weekend and week out. It's

1238
01:00:33,560 --> 01:00:36,520
Speaker 2: been so much fun now and I cannot wait. I'm

1239
01:00:36,520 --> 01:00:38,720
Speaker 2: probably gonna be fifty years old by the time this happens.

1240
01:00:38,760 --> 01:00:41,840
Speaker 2: When Lazio finally turns into what Sevilla is right now,

1241
01:00:42,080 --> 01:00:44,000
Speaker 2: I'm going to enjoy it so much. I'm very much

1242
01:00:44,040 --> 01:00:46,520
Speaker 2: enjoying what's happening Sevie right now. They're in a sandwich spot.

1243
01:00:46,800 --> 01:00:49,919
Speaker 2: They're gonna have to put everything into the Europa League

1244
01:00:49,920 --> 01:00:52,800
Speaker 2: because they have no shot at getting to a European

1245
01:00:52,800 --> 01:00:55,600
Speaker 2: spot in Spain, and they're getting dangerously close to the

1246
01:00:55,640 --> 01:00:58,480
Speaker 2: relegation battle as well. And this al Maria team listened.

1247
01:00:58,480 --> 01:01:00,760
Speaker 2: They're very very bad defensively, but they are in the

1248
01:01:00,760 --> 01:01:04,240
Speaker 2: top half of La Liga in non penalty expected goals.

1249
01:01:04,600 --> 01:01:06,919
Speaker 2: They are a pretty good at counter attacking side their

1250
01:01:06,960 --> 01:01:11,000
Speaker 2: fifth in final third of penalty box entry conversion rate.

1251
01:01:11,320 --> 01:01:14,360
Speaker 2: Savia somebody who's been very very bad in transition defense

1252
01:01:14,400 --> 01:01:17,200
Speaker 2: and really bad defensively overall this season. I mean, we

1253
01:01:17,320 --> 01:01:19,880
Speaker 2: just obviously we just mentioned it, just got six foot

1254
01:01:19,920 --> 01:01:23,600
Speaker 2: past them by Athletico Madrid, and again you know the

1255
01:01:23,680 --> 01:01:25,800
Speaker 2: sow Marriott team. They pulled off one of the biggest

1256
01:01:25,880 --> 01:01:28,360
Speaker 2: upsets of the La Legal season. They will beat Barcelona

1257
01:01:28,360 --> 01:01:30,720
Speaker 2: at home and it wasn't like a fluke one zero

1258
01:01:30,800 --> 01:01:33,400
Speaker 2: win like it was very very even match on expected goals.

1259
01:01:33,480 --> 01:01:35,920
Speaker 2: Barcelona just got caught in a sleepy spot. I think

1260
01:01:35,960 --> 01:01:37,360
Speaker 2: that's what Saba is going to be here. I mean

1261
01:01:37,360 --> 01:01:40,360
Speaker 2: we cashed with Osasuna two weeks ago, so let's just

1262
01:01:40,400 --> 01:01:44,520
Speaker 2: go right back to theah. So Al Maria at four

1263
01:01:44,520 --> 01:01:46,360
Speaker 2: to one for me, and they beat Sabia earlier this

1264
01:01:46,400 --> 01:01:47,040
Speaker 2: season as well.

1265
01:01:47,640 --> 01:01:49,240
Speaker 3: I think you bet them. I think we both had

1266
01:01:49,240 --> 01:01:51,160
Speaker 3: them that day we did.

1267
01:01:51,680 --> 01:01:54,240
Speaker 2: It was the Umar Sadik coming out party and then

1268
01:01:54,280 --> 01:01:57,920
Speaker 2: he immediately got sold to associate at and towards ACL S.

1269
01:01:58,040 --> 01:01:59,520
Speaker 3: By the way, you know who the second oldest team

1270
01:01:59,560 --> 01:02:04,640
Speaker 3: in Italy the Roma Slatsio. Of course they are second

1271
01:02:04,680 --> 01:02:07,480
Speaker 3: oldest team and that's what Sevilla was going into the season.

1272
01:02:07,520 --> 01:02:11,880
Speaker 2: Thank god for Al Kamar on Tuesday on Tuesday, m yeah,

1273
01:02:11,920 --> 01:02:15,400
Speaker 2: because that made up for the match against Napoli, where

1274
01:02:15,440 --> 01:02:17,280
Speaker 2: of course they scored a deflection golf mount sid in

1275
01:02:17,280 --> 01:02:18,360
Speaker 2: the box one.

1276
01:02:18,320 --> 01:02:20,840
Speaker 1: Hundred and seventy seven to one. Shaka clad back and

1277
01:02:20,960 --> 01:02:26,360
Speaker 1: Almeria does feel good this one especially it's nice not

1278
01:02:26,440 --> 01:02:28,959
Speaker 1: to have a Premier League team in there, yeah, for once,

1279
01:02:29,800 --> 01:02:32,400
Speaker 1: but we will have three Premier League teams in this section.

1280
01:02:32,560 --> 01:02:35,919
Speaker 1: Our favorite bets in the EPL for the upcoming match

1281
01:02:35,920 --> 01:02:38,280
Speaker 1: week bj we go first.

1282
01:02:38,400 --> 01:02:41,040
Speaker 2: Right in team total over one and a half at

1283
01:02:41,120 --> 01:02:46,000
Speaker 2: Leeds at even money. This Brighton offense is absolutely electric

1284
01:02:46,200 --> 01:02:49,560
Speaker 2: under riberto Deservey since he's taken over, and they're averaging

1285
01:02:49,640 --> 01:02:52,480
Speaker 2: over to expected goals per match. Their last seven matches,

1286
01:02:52,520 --> 01:02:56,160
Speaker 2: they have created sixteen point two expected goals, created eleven

1287
01:02:56,160 --> 01:02:59,560
Speaker 2: big scoring chances, and this match sets up perfectly for

1288
01:02:59,640 --> 01:03:01,880
Speaker 2: them For a team like Leads, who wants to press

1289
01:03:01,960 --> 01:03:04,880
Speaker 2: high and give them pressure. Brighton does the best job

1290
01:03:04,960 --> 01:03:07,640
Speaker 2: of any team in the Premier League at playing through pressure,

1291
01:03:07,680 --> 01:03:10,320
Speaker 2: at baiting teams in and just playing right through you.

1292
01:03:10,560 --> 01:03:12,640
Speaker 2: The last time to two these two teams faced off,

1293
01:03:12,760 --> 01:03:14,920
Speaker 2: Brighton won the match one nothing at the Amex, but

1294
01:03:14,920 --> 01:03:18,080
Speaker 2: they created two expected goals and that was before guys

1295
01:03:18,120 --> 01:03:20,360
Speaker 2: like Metoma and Ferguson, who are the two of their

1296
01:03:20,360 --> 01:03:22,640
Speaker 2: most productive attackers right now. That was before they were

1297
01:03:22,640 --> 01:03:25,480
Speaker 2: even in the lineup. And Leeds, although they do do

1298
01:03:25,520 --> 01:03:27,880
Speaker 2: a good job of pressing when they faced the top

1299
01:03:27,960 --> 01:03:30,520
Speaker 2: five teams in offensive pass per defensive actions, so essentially

1300
01:03:30,560 --> 01:03:32,880
Speaker 2: the five best teams at playing through teams that can

1301
01:03:33,040 --> 01:03:36,120
Speaker 2: press them intensely. They've a lot nine point three expected

1302
01:03:36,160 --> 01:03:38,000
Speaker 2: goals in those five matches, so I think this is

1303
01:03:38,000 --> 01:03:40,280
Speaker 2: a perfect spot here for Brighton. It's God is going

1304
01:03:40,320 --> 01:03:42,720
Speaker 2: to be a very aggressive approach with leads pressing a lot,

1305
01:03:42,760 --> 01:03:44,560
Speaker 2: so worries meet a little bit that Leads might sneak

1306
01:03:44,560 --> 01:03:46,760
Speaker 2: a goal in here. So but I do project Brighton

1307
01:03:46,760 --> 01:03:49,040
Speaker 2: for two expected goals, so I like their team total

1308
01:03:49,040 --> 01:03:51,240
Speaker 2: over one and a half. At even money, I'm.

1309
01:03:51,080 --> 01:03:55,080
Speaker 1: Going to take Chelsea short road favorite minus one of

1310
01:03:55,240 --> 01:04:00,840
Speaker 1: six At Leicester City. Leicester City's defense is ben shambles

1311
01:04:00,880 --> 01:04:04,520
Speaker 1: for two years now. It's still shambles Chelsea. Meanwhile, the

1312
01:04:04,560 --> 01:04:08,080
Speaker 1: offense is starting to maybe show some signs of life

1313
01:04:08,080 --> 01:04:11,080
Speaker 1: finally under Graham Potter. Sixteen point two expected goals but

1314
01:04:11,160 --> 01:04:15,240
Speaker 1: only seven goals scored in the Premier League. There's not

1315
01:04:15,280 --> 01:04:17,240
Speaker 1: a better fit for this team to be playing, and

1316
01:04:17,520 --> 01:04:19,200
Speaker 1: not a better team, not a better matchup than this

1317
01:04:19,280 --> 01:04:21,640
Speaker 1: Leicster City team, even at home. So give me the

1318
01:04:21,640 --> 01:04:24,400
Speaker 1: Blues to trend to continue trending in the right direction,

1319
01:04:24,920 --> 01:04:29,200
Speaker 1: buoyed by a nice Champions League win during the midweek. Anthony,

1320
01:04:29,480 --> 01:04:30,520
Speaker 1: what is your favorite bet?

1321
01:04:31,040 --> 01:04:36,000
Speaker 3: Liverpool and Bournemouth both teams to score. Yes, Bournemouth's attack

1322
01:04:36,160 --> 01:04:39,640
Speaker 3: has trended up considerably. Where we were fading them throughout

1323
01:04:39,640 --> 01:04:41,880
Speaker 3: most of November and then December, coming out of the

1324
01:04:41,920 --> 01:04:45,000
Speaker 3: World Cup break, they were really struggling to score. They've

1325
01:04:45,000 --> 01:04:47,720
Speaker 3: had an infusion of new ideas and new attackers and

1326
01:04:47,760 --> 01:04:50,840
Speaker 3: it's really helped them and they are now undervalued. I

1327
01:04:50,880 --> 01:04:52,880
Speaker 3: believe to score in this match as they were the

1328
01:04:52,960 --> 01:04:55,520
Speaker 3: last two matches against Man City and Arsenal when they

1329
01:04:55,520 --> 01:04:57,800
Speaker 3: were able to find the back of the net. Liverpool's

1330
01:04:57,840 --> 01:05:00,400
Speaker 3: attack has shown an ability to score in bunch. They've

1331
01:05:00,440 --> 01:05:03,400
Speaker 3: really improved, but if you watch those games, there are

1332
01:05:03,480 --> 01:05:05,920
Speaker 3: still flaws defensively and I don't think Liverpool will ever

1333
01:05:05,960 --> 01:05:10,120
Speaker 3: get back quite to the level that it was at

1334
01:05:10,160 --> 01:05:12,560
Speaker 3: the peak under clop this season. I don't think that

1335
01:05:12,680 --> 01:05:14,520
Speaker 3: is coming back. I don't think that level of defensive

1336
01:05:14,520 --> 01:05:17,840
Speaker 3: pressing ability will be there and so this price given

1337
01:05:17,880 --> 01:05:20,520
Speaker 3: that is pretty surprising. I know Bourne is the worst

1338
01:05:20,520 --> 01:05:22,800
Speaker 3: attack for the season in the prem but the form

1339
01:05:23,040 --> 01:05:25,840
Speaker 3: indicates that I have to go with both teams to score.

1340
01:05:25,880 --> 01:05:26,040
Speaker 2: Here.

1341
01:05:26,520 --> 01:05:30,400
Speaker 1: There you have it. Another episode of Wonderful presented by

1342
01:05:30,400 --> 01:05:33,600
Speaker 1: Bett three six y five is in the books. We

1343
01:05:33,680 --> 01:05:37,160
Speaker 1: will be back on Monday morning to look at the

1344
01:05:37,320 --> 01:05:41,280
Speaker 1: next batch of Champions League matches, but until then, for PJ.

1345
01:05:41,400 --> 01:05:44,000
Speaker 1: Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo, Michael Leeboff wishing you the best

1346
01:05:44,040 --> 01:05:53,200
Speaker 1: of luck with your bets this weekend.

1347
01:05:55,760 --> 01:06:00,280
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1348
01:06:00,320 --> 01:06:03,080
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1349
01:06:03,120 --> 01:06:06,200
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler