WEBVTT - TechStuff Predictions for 2013: The Results 0:00:04.280 --> 0:00:13.200 Get in test with technology with text stuff from that everyone, 0:00:13.200 --> 0:00:16.360 and welcome to tex Stuff. This is Jonathan Strickland and 0:00:16.440 --> 0:00:19.119 I'm Lauren And you know what, there's something that we 0:00:19.200 --> 0:00:22.360 like to do every year. Uh. And then there's also 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:25.239 these prediction shows that we do. So every year we 0:00:25.280 --> 0:00:27.800 do on tech Stuff of prediction about what's going to 0:00:27.800 --> 0:00:30.159 happen in the world of technology over the course of 0:00:30.200 --> 0:00:33.599 the following twelve months. Jonathan despises doing this, and it's 0:00:33.600 --> 0:00:36.199 not so much that I despise it, it's just that, Uh, 0:00:36.320 --> 0:00:39.600 I dread it. Um. I love making the predictions. I 0:00:39.760 --> 0:00:42.560 dread this time of year where we take the predictions 0:00:42.560 --> 0:00:46.159 we made twelve months ago and then we ourselves harshly. Yeah, 0:00:46.240 --> 0:00:50.120 we do a report card. If you remember in past episodes, Uh, 0:00:50.280 --> 0:00:52.720 when it was me and Chris, I would get all 0:00:52.800 --> 0:00:54.760 check marks and Chris got all x is. But I 0:00:54.840 --> 0:00:57.280 understand we have a different grading system this time that 0:00:57.440 --> 0:01:01.360 involves some form of life. So I guess we'll have 0:01:01.440 --> 0:01:03.920 to judge how well we do as we go along. 0:01:03.920 --> 0:01:05.679 We'll work it out as we go. Um. This was 0:01:05.720 --> 0:01:07.800 actually one of the first episodes that I recorded with 0:01:07.840 --> 0:01:10.080 Tech Stuff, and listening back to it was pretty embarrassing, 0:01:10.080 --> 0:01:12.160 And so I want to say thank you to everyone 0:01:12.160 --> 0:01:14.479 who has continued listening to tech stuff despite the fact 0:01:14.520 --> 0:01:17.080 that you had to hear my learning curve, considering that 0:01:17.120 --> 0:01:20.800 you had never podcast before. Really, I don't think it was, 0:01:21.080 --> 0:01:23.400 you know, dreadful or anything. So you're being really hard 0:01:23.440 --> 0:01:25.600 on yourself. I no, no, no, that that's but that's 0:01:25.600 --> 0:01:28.880 but that's a good indicator for this episode to come. Yes, yes, 0:01:28.959 --> 0:01:31.360 we are now going to take a look at the 0:01:31.360 --> 0:01:35.960 predictions we made and say what happened. So now both 0:01:35.959 --> 0:01:39.280 of us made a bunch of pretty safe predictions, or 0:01:39.280 --> 0:01:42.520 at least what seemed like safe at the time. Yeah, 0:01:42.640 --> 0:01:45.759 you know, I think we haven't discussed when we're gonna 0:01:45.800 --> 0:01:47.760 do our our predictions for two thousand and fourteen. We 0:01:47.800 --> 0:01:50.320 are planning on doing that, but I think I might 0:01:50.360 --> 0:01:52.520 go a little more crazy next time because some of 0:01:52.520 --> 0:01:55.720 the ones when I went back over and I'm like, well, geez, Jonathan, 0:01:55.720 --> 0:01:58.240 thanks for predicting that if you go into the water 0:01:58.440 --> 0:02:01.000 you will get wet. Yeah, your first one is a 0:02:01.000 --> 0:02:03.040 little bit like that. Yeah, And my first one was 0:02:03.120 --> 0:02:07.560 that mobile web browsing would outpace desktop browsing. Now, granted 0:02:07.680 --> 0:02:10.920 this was one of those things that seemed pretty pretty 0:02:10.919 --> 0:02:13.680 sure based upon the trend on the edge at the 0:02:13.720 --> 0:02:16.400 end of but it hadn't actually pushed over, which it 0:02:16.680 --> 0:02:20.480 really pretty promptly didn't. Yeah, exactly, I didn't take very long. 0:02:20.560 --> 0:02:23.639 And the way that there are different ways of measuring 0:02:23.680 --> 0:02:28.240 this obviously, but calm Score, which is often cited as 0:02:28.280 --> 0:02:31.280 one of the analysts companies that will look into this 0:02:31.360 --> 0:02:33.400 sort of stuff, the way they looked at it as 0:02:33.440 --> 0:02:35.600 they looked at mobile web browsing when it came to 0:02:35.720 --> 0:02:41.320 online shopping, and they discovered that online shopping through mobile 0:02:41.480 --> 0:02:44.280 was being done like fifty at the time and that 0:02:44.400 --> 0:02:47.640 the other were PCs. So if you look at it 0:02:47.680 --> 0:02:52.560 just from a shopping standpoint, mobile browsing overtook PCs, and 0:02:52.800 --> 0:02:56.280 they extrapolate to say that other types of browsing follows 0:02:56.320 --> 0:03:00.200 suit based upon the the online shopping model. Uh, out 0:03:00.240 --> 0:03:06.919 of that most of that of that was from smartphones 0:03:07.320 --> 0:03:10.720 and the other eleven percent of that was from tablets. 0:03:10.919 --> 0:03:15.960 So even with online shopping, smartphones are still outpacing tablets 0:03:15.960 --> 0:03:19.040 when it comes to that particular version of mobile web browsing. 0:03:19.400 --> 0:03:24.000 So anyway, it appears that this prediction was pretty much true. 0:03:25.080 --> 0:03:29.040 So gave me so according to our new scoring system, 0:03:29.080 --> 0:03:33.239 I get two squids and an ink sac. That's pretty good. 0:03:33.639 --> 0:03:38.920 Als okay, I guess alright, So, Lauren, what was your 0:03:38.920 --> 0:03:41.920 first prediction? My first prediction was that laptop sales would 0:03:41.920 --> 0:03:45.920 make a comeback while desktop sales continued to decline, and 0:03:45.960 --> 0:03:48.960 that tablets um wouldn't perform as well as as they 0:03:49.000 --> 0:03:51.600 had been, like, it'll slow down, that it would kind 0:03:51.600 --> 0:03:53.400 of slow down and even out as people realize that 0:03:53.440 --> 0:03:56.880 they needed more power and practicality and tablets could really 0:03:56.920 --> 0:04:02.440 provide UM. And I was pretty wrong. I was not 0:04:02.560 --> 0:04:06.280 correct about that. Well. To be fair, there were a 0:04:06.280 --> 0:04:10.480 lot of factors that went into making this complicated issue, 0:04:10.560 --> 0:04:13.880 one of which was something that will factor into another prediction, 0:04:13.920 --> 0:04:16.640 which I would say is Windows eight. Windows eight I 0:04:16.640 --> 0:04:19.480 think actually discouraged people from getting laptop. Yeah. It did 0:04:19.480 --> 0:04:21.920 way more poorly than I think anyone expected it. At 0:04:21.920 --> 0:04:25.360 the end of to do. Yeah, a lot of companies 0:04:25.520 --> 0:04:30.160 had declines that continued in both desktop and laptop sales, 0:04:30.880 --> 0:04:33.520 although one company started to make up some ground and 0:04:33.520 --> 0:04:37.680 market share. From what I understand, Apple apples have always 0:04:37.760 --> 0:04:40.760 been trailing behind like Windows based PCs when it comes 0:04:40.800 --> 0:04:44.360 to market share, particularly in the US, but inten they 0:04:44.440 --> 0:04:46.839 hit twelve percent of the market share, and some analysts 0:04:46.880 --> 0:04:48.400 were saying that they have the potential to get up 0:04:48.440 --> 0:04:51.160 to the market in the near future, which would be 0:04:51.240 --> 0:04:55.480 a huge coup for Apple. Yeah. Um was actually the 0:04:55.480 --> 0:04:58.039 first year since two thousand three that Max sales dropped, 0:04:58.200 --> 0:05:01.960 but their laptops are outsell in their desktops three to one. Yeah, 0:05:02.000 --> 0:05:04.520 which not a big surprise because it wasn't until recently 0:05:04.520 --> 0:05:09.160 that the desktop's got a major update. Yeah. According to MPD, 0:05:09.279 --> 0:05:11.920 desktop and laptop sales fell by five and two percent 0:05:11.960 --> 0:05:15.960 respectively during the whole back to school season, as opposed 0:05:15.960 --> 0:05:20.000 to yeah, um, which is supposedly you know it's it's 0:05:20.600 --> 0:05:23.640 usually the biggest time that computer sea sales. Yeah. Back 0:05:24.520 --> 0:05:27.640 back to school and the holiday shopping season are like 0:05:27.680 --> 0:05:30.920 the two most important times of the year for most 0:05:31.000 --> 0:05:35.360 laptop However, those declines were mild compared to the rest 0:05:35.360 --> 0:05:41.000 of the year. Um uh sales each quarter according to Gardner, 0:05:41.160 --> 0:05:45.120 we're down about ten percent UM each quarter compared with 0:05:45.160 --> 0:05:49.480 each quarter last year. But the tablet market is still growing. 0:05:49.680 --> 0:05:52.000 Um Well, I mean, okay, it is slowing a little bit. 0:05:52.000 --> 0:05:55.159 I wasn't completely wrong about it flattening a little. Um, 0:05:55.200 --> 0:06:00.000 but it's over thirty six percent growth, which is not insignificant. 0:06:00.440 --> 0:06:03.120 Yeah that's true. Uh, but you know, you also have 0:06:03.160 --> 0:06:07.120 to look like the tablet market is still smaller than 0:06:07.200 --> 0:06:11.360 the overall PC market, so when they grow, the percentages 0:06:11.360 --> 0:06:14.320 are larger. Right Like Like if you if you sell 0:06:14.360 --> 0:06:17.360 two units and then the next year you sell eight units, 0:06:17.400 --> 0:06:20.680 that percentage growth is huge. If you're selling two million 0:06:20.760 --> 0:06:22.640 units and the next year you sell two and fifty 0:06:22.680 --> 0:06:27.360 million units, that relative growth is small. So it's tablet 0:06:27.400 --> 0:06:29.440 market really didn't exist until what was a two thousand 0:06:29.520 --> 0:06:31.200 nine when the first I pad came out. Yeah, I 0:06:31.200 --> 0:06:34.279 mean yeah, the the previous tablets had not really had 0:06:34.320 --> 0:06:37.760 any consumer penetration at all. So uh, yeah, it's but 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:39.560 it is. It does look like it's starting to mature, 0:06:39.640 --> 0:06:42.360 like it's starting to slow down. So I agree that 0:06:42.400 --> 0:06:44.320 you were right on that one. So, um, I'm gonna 0:06:44.360 --> 0:06:46.880 give you. I'm giving you a squid and a half, 0:06:47.240 --> 0:06:49.880 but you also apparently get a squid squeaky toy. I 0:06:49.920 --> 0:06:53.680 don't know what that means. That sounds fine, okay, Um, 0:06:53.720 --> 0:06:57.080 I got My next prediction was enterprises will resist adopting 0:06:57.120 --> 0:07:01.160 Windows eight another gimme um, because I mean, any time 0:07:01.200 --> 0:07:03.599 a new operating system comes out, enterprises are going to 0:07:03.680 --> 0:07:06.800 lag behind consumers, even if the operating system is is 0:07:06.800 --> 0:07:10.000 received with great joy and love. Oh absolutely, Because I 0:07:10.000 --> 0:07:13.400 mean enterprises have companies have a whole systems that are 0:07:13.640 --> 0:07:16.800 based upon a single operating system and changing them all 0:07:16.800 --> 0:07:19.720 over is time consuming and there's testing involved, and it's 0:07:19.760 --> 0:07:22.760 expensive and u scary, so you never know if it's 0:07:22.760 --> 0:07:25.040 going to work and and then you end up having 0:07:25.080 --> 0:07:28.200 made an investment and then you eat the expense if 0:07:28.240 --> 0:07:31.200 it doesn't work out. So not a big surprise. What 0:07:31.480 --> 0:07:34.040 was kind of interesting to me was that Windows eight 0:07:34.040 --> 0:07:35.800 did seem to be a little bit of a of 0:07:35.840 --> 0:07:38.760 an albatross, Like it didn't get a lot of love 0:07:40.320 --> 0:07:42.840 for many people. Like a lot of people really didn't 0:07:42.880 --> 0:07:45.160 like that operating system when it came out. And like 0:07:45.200 --> 0:07:47.720 I said, it may have even contributed to that two 0:07:47.760 --> 0:07:54.200 people resisting purchasing a new notebook. So that's not great. 0:07:54.480 --> 0:07:58.480 But um but but but but good call on that one. 0:07:58.760 --> 0:08:01.560 Umdeed do you have do you have a I'm looking 0:08:01.600 --> 0:08:05.280 I'm consulting my squid uh profile here According to this, 0:08:05.400 --> 0:08:10.040 I don't get a squid, but I get a squib. 0:08:10.440 --> 0:08:12.160 So if you shoot me, then I get the little 0:08:12.200 --> 0:08:15.560 bit of pop noise like in an action movie. So 0:08:15.600 --> 0:08:17.800 that's something. Did some tentacles come out along with the 0:08:17.800 --> 0:08:21.480 blood with me? Yes? Excellent. Yes, it's mostly because we're 0:08:21.480 --> 0:08:26.120 eight lunch. I'm not even going to ask about that. 0:08:26.200 --> 0:08:29.320 So my second prediction was that UM touch screens would 0:08:29.360 --> 0:08:33.679 be integrated into more products, including most laptops and UM 0:08:33.880 --> 0:08:37.920 and display. Yeah, like things like that, like a secondary 0:08:37.920 --> 0:08:40.000 display for your computer or even a main display for 0:08:40.000 --> 0:08:44.000 your computer. That was that was you were you were 0:08:44.080 --> 0:08:46.880 you were. I think being very optimistic. I was, and 0:08:46.960 --> 0:08:49.520 I think I think the trend is definitely there. I 0:08:49.559 --> 0:08:52.160 think it's there and I and it definitely didn't happen 0:08:52.160 --> 0:08:53.920 this year. I think it's going to happen in the 0:08:53.960 --> 0:08:56.280 next like two years. I think I was being way 0:08:56.280 --> 0:08:59.760 too optimistic. But still the trend is obviously there. I mean, 0:09:00.000 --> 0:09:04.120 because people have grown to love the whole touch screen experience. 0:09:04.480 --> 0:09:07.160 It's just a question of does that translate to the 0:09:07.280 --> 0:09:11.080 laptop and desktop experience and can you create something that's 0:09:11.120 --> 0:09:13.320 compelling enough to make that a reason for you to 0:09:13.400 --> 0:09:16.720 have that feature in your in your device. Everyone was 0:09:16.760 --> 0:09:18.680 hoping that Windows eight was going to be that thing. 0:09:18.960 --> 0:09:21.079 It was not. It was not that thing, and the 0:09:21.200 --> 0:09:23.720 new mac os is kind of also not that thing. 0:09:23.760 --> 0:09:26.920 That's not something that Apple has moved toward yet, but 0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:30.160 it's still a possibility to And it's not like it's 0:09:30.160 --> 0:09:33.599 not like people weren't including them. There were lots of 0:09:33.600 --> 0:09:36.120 of models out there that did include them. Yeah. According 0:09:36.160 --> 0:09:40.960 to MPD, about of all notebooks shipped in had touch screens, 0:09:41.040 --> 0:09:43.960 which sounds like a relatively small number until you think 0:09:43.960 --> 0:09:48.720 about the fact that before basically none, ye hardly like 0:09:48.960 --> 0:09:51.560 some at the very tail end of just leading into 0:09:51.600 --> 0:09:55.360 c E S and uh yeah, so that's actually quite 0:09:55.520 --> 0:09:57.920 a large number. I mean, that's a big gamble for 0:09:57.960 --> 0:10:00.360 a company to do, is to invest in that kind 0:10:00.360 --> 0:10:04.520 of new technology because that's going to impact everything that 0:10:04.520 --> 0:10:08.080 that product encounters from that moment on. Right. So, Um, 0:10:08.120 --> 0:10:10.040 so eleven percent is actually pretty big, and it all 0:10:10.080 --> 0:10:14.240 depended upon which company you're talking about. They had different numbers. Yeah, 0:10:14.280 --> 0:10:16.480 I think Sony had a lot, didn't think Yep, seventeen 0:10:16.520 --> 0:10:19.240 point six percent of all notebooks they shipped were equipped 0:10:19.280 --> 0:10:22.880 with touch screens. However, um, they did not make up 0:10:23.559 --> 0:10:27.199 a majority of the actual touch screens on the market, 0:10:27.240 --> 0:10:31.000 whereas Lenovo, Uh, they only had seven point four percent 0:10:31.120 --> 0:10:34.400 of all of their laptops shipping with touch screens, but 0:10:34.679 --> 0:10:37.960 they they accounted for fourteen point seven percent of the 0:10:38.120 --> 0:10:41.120 touch screen laptop market share. Yeah. So, in other words, 0:10:41.160 --> 0:10:44.160 Lenovo had if you look at all the stuff they offered, 0:10:44.280 --> 0:10:46.360 a smaller percentage of it had touch screens, but they 0:10:46.440 --> 0:10:49.000 made up the majority of the touch screens based upon 0:10:49.080 --> 0:10:52.000 other companies are buying. Yeah, so that might mean that 0:10:52.080 --> 0:10:55.880 Lenovo's you know, cheaper. Yeah, they were more attuned to 0:10:55.920 --> 0:11:00.320 their customers a cheaper Yes, that is usually what that means. 0:11:00.440 --> 0:11:03.200 Um so, uh so what are what are we What 0:11:03.240 --> 0:11:05.000 are we going to give me? According to our squid 0:11:05.040 --> 0:11:09.880 valuation system, you get a sucker, not tentacle sucker, but 0:11:10.000 --> 0:11:14.560 like a lollypo, it's squid flavored. Yeah, that's what you get. 0:11:15.760 --> 0:11:18.440 Moving on, I'm failing to see how that's a positive. No, 0:11:18.600 --> 0:11:20.240 you know, it all depends on whether or not you 0:11:20.280 --> 0:11:23.640 like squid. Uh. You know, it's like, you know, Calamari pops. 0:11:23.679 --> 0:11:28.800 It's the newest thing. So the next part another gimme, man, 0:11:28.840 --> 0:11:31.000 I'm gonna have to stick my neck out more next year, 0:11:31.600 --> 0:11:34.000 I'm reading these and just like, how lamed could I get? 0:11:34.040 --> 0:11:37.800 I said that the the NFC near field communication would 0:11:37.840 --> 0:11:40.800 not receive wide adoption in the United States, partly because 0:11:40.840 --> 0:11:43.040 Apple would not play ball. In other words, Apple was 0:11:43.080 --> 0:11:46.640 not going to incorporate NFC and its next iPhone. I'll 0:11:46.640 --> 0:11:49.240 have more to say about their next iPhone shortly, but 0:11:49.280 --> 0:11:52.000 I said that NFC just wasn't gonna get any traction 0:11:52.040 --> 0:11:54.840 in the United States on a meaningful level, and indeed 0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:57.640 it did not know because again Apple did not include it. 0:11:57.640 --> 0:11:59.880 And I think that's a huge part of it is that, 0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:03.400 you know, without without Apple getting on board, there's uh, 0:12:03.480 --> 0:12:06.680 you know, that's that's big. That's a that's a sizeable 0:12:06.760 --> 0:12:11.559 percentage of the smartphone poppy of your smartphone population can't 0:12:11.760 --> 0:12:15.200 use the technology. Yeah, then you're like, well, why would 0:12:15.240 --> 0:12:18.320 I invest in this if potential, especially if you've made 0:12:18.320 --> 0:12:22.760 the determination that perhaps your customers happen to be iPhone customers, 0:12:23.000 --> 0:12:25.439 They're like, well, I could spend a hundred thousand dollars 0:12:25.480 --> 0:12:28.800 retrofitting my my my vending so that I can take 0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:32.600 advantage of this, but if my clientele don't use it, 0:12:32.640 --> 0:12:36.480 then that's just a waste of money. So then, uh, yeah, 0:12:36.600 --> 0:12:38.920 and the reasons, the reasons for this, I mean are 0:12:39.000 --> 0:12:42.199 are basically what we talked about in that episode. It's 0:12:42.240 --> 0:12:47.439 it's the cost of implementation, the concern about security, that's 0:12:47.480 --> 0:12:50.960 a big one, oh sure, the you know, the lack 0:12:51.160 --> 0:12:53.640 of consumer awareness about it. I mean, if you haven't 0:12:53.679 --> 0:12:56.120 been to Europe recently here in the US, and you're 0:12:56.160 --> 0:12:58.679 from the US, then yeah, you don't even know, Like 0:12:58.760 --> 0:13:01.400 you might not even be aware that this is a possibility. 0:13:01.440 --> 0:13:04.000 I mean people who have been using things like I've 0:13:04.000 --> 0:13:06.079 got a Nexus four phone and that has an n 0:13:06.120 --> 0:13:08.160 FC chip in it. I've got a Nexus seven tablet 0:13:08.160 --> 0:13:10.120 and that has an NFC chip in it. I have 0:13:10.240 --> 0:13:14.440 never used either of those products with the NFC, so 0:13:14.559 --> 0:13:17.120 but I'm aware of it because I own two of them. 0:13:17.160 --> 0:13:20.080 But even I haven't used them. And uh and even 0:13:20.160 --> 0:13:22.880 vendors not realizing the benefit that they would have of 0:13:22.920 --> 0:13:24.880 getting that kind of thing out here, right, So, so 0:13:24.920 --> 0:13:27.160 there are a lot of things that challenges that have 0:13:27.200 --> 0:13:29.800 to be overcome before we see this become something that 0:13:30.280 --> 0:13:32.680 actually is is in widespread use in the United States. 0:13:32.720 --> 0:13:36.160 So that's a gimme. According to this I get h 0:13:36.800 --> 0:13:40.920 just a beak. I think it's from a squid. I 0:13:41.000 --> 0:13:43.720 gotta make better predictions. We we we really need to 0:13:43.720 --> 0:13:48.080 talk to to this squid referral provider. It's it's stuff 0:13:48.120 --> 0:13:51.800 to blow your minds. Robert, I don't know what he's 0:13:51.840 --> 0:13:54.400 been going through. Apparently he got really upset when we 0:13:54.440 --> 0:13:58.640 suggested that perhaps he was leaving human teeth around the office. Yeah, 0:13:58.800 --> 0:14:01.920 there was, So this is a tangent, you guys. But 0:14:01.920 --> 0:14:04.440 but I found like a little plastic baggy of of 0:14:04.480 --> 0:14:06.679 what appears to be human teeth in one of our 0:14:06.679 --> 0:14:09.400 conference rooms, just sitting on the on the tray of 0:14:09.440 --> 0:14:13.520 our white board. Yeah, like just hanging out. I mean 0:14:13.520 --> 0:14:16.440 they're they're clean looking. And Robert claims he didn't do it, 0:14:16.559 --> 0:14:19.360 but he would have been my number one suspect. I 0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:23.040 personally blame Matt. And that is right here, that is 0:14:23.080 --> 0:14:25.040 sitting in for us, and he's staring at us with 0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:28.760 creepy eyes. But technically those were just Matt's eyes. So 0:14:29.120 --> 0:14:31.840 and he's nodding slowly. All right, Well, anyway, let's get 0:14:31.840 --> 0:14:35.680 back to another one of your suggests, your suggestions, your predictions. Yes, 0:14:35.720 --> 0:14:37.760 my next prediction was that the Internet of things would 0:14:37.760 --> 0:14:41.000 become more of a thing. Um, with more interconnected systems 0:14:41.040 --> 0:14:44.560 taking off. Yeah, and commercially speaking, this is this is accurate. 0:14:44.960 --> 0:14:46.880 We saw it, We saw a few launched. I think 0:14:46.880 --> 0:14:48.520 I think that you're more willing to give me that 0:14:48.560 --> 0:14:51.160 one than I am. Um. I mean, I've I've kind 0:14:51.160 --> 0:14:53.520 of incidentally seen a lot of seen and heard a 0:14:53.520 --> 0:14:55.480 lot of commercials for this kind of stuff. I haven't 0:14:56.200 --> 0:14:58.640 been able to find any numbers of the number of 0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:02.040 adoption yet. Um, but the fact that it's a product 0:15:02.080 --> 0:15:04.520 that more people have access to is pretty nifty. Yeah. 0:15:04.560 --> 0:15:06.640 It used to be that you were only only like 0:15:07.000 --> 0:15:11.240 bleeding edge adopters who had ridiculous amounts of money and uh, 0:15:11.280 --> 0:15:14.160 and we're willing to go through a contractor to get 0:15:14.160 --> 0:15:17.240 home automation. Only they had access to this kind of stuff. 0:15:17.520 --> 0:15:19.520 We're just now starting to see it enter into the 0:15:19.520 --> 0:15:22.880 consumer marketplace where the average person can go into like 0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:25.640 a hardware store and buy stuff that has Internet of 0:15:25.720 --> 0:15:28.760 Things capabilities, Like the next Thermostatic came out with a 0:15:28.800 --> 0:15:30.640 new model this year, and they came out with a 0:15:30.640 --> 0:15:34.200 new smoke detector this year. So we're seeing it more 0:15:34.200 --> 0:15:38.400 and more. I personally happen to have Internet Internet connected 0:15:38.520 --> 0:15:41.040 light bulbs, so I can turn my lights on and 0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:45.560 off wherever I am. Yeah, so, uh, it's too bad. 0:15:45.680 --> 0:15:47.320 I should do the thing they did in the Big 0:15:47.320 --> 0:15:50.960 Bang theory, where I create a lamp that has one 0:15:51.000 --> 0:15:52.760 of these bulbs in it and then just give the 0:15:52.760 --> 0:15:55.320 Internet access to it and they can turn the lamp 0:15:55.360 --> 0:15:58.360 on and off whenever they want. That sounds like a 0:15:58.360 --> 0:16:01.240 project of terror to me personally. It could be interesting. 0:16:01.240 --> 0:16:05.080 I could end up getting Morse code. But I have 0:16:05.160 --> 0:16:07.360 not done that Internet, so don't expect to find it 0:16:07.480 --> 0:16:09.160 right now. But you know I do have. I mean, 0:16:10.160 --> 0:16:13.120 most know whether or not you're interested. Maybe I'm biased 0:16:13.520 --> 0:16:16.960 about the Internet of Things because I'm I'm technically an 0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:20.240 early adopter. Yeah well, I mean, okay, predictions from both 0:16:20.280 --> 0:16:23.560 Disco and Intelligence estimate that the decade long growth of 0:16:23.600 --> 0:16:28.080 the technology will will will be ninefold um. And that's 0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:31.080 that's big um. But you know, I'm still I am 0:16:31.080 --> 0:16:33.640 still saying that I was a little bit premature on 0:16:33.680 --> 0:16:36.000 this one. All right, Well, you're you are your own harsh, 0:16:36.120 --> 0:16:39.480 harshest critic, right, you get for that six squid. But 0:16:39.520 --> 0:16:42.640 they all are occupying the exact same space at the 0:16:42.640 --> 0:16:46.120 exact same time. So it's terror to look at. So 0:16:46.160 --> 0:16:47.600 don't look at it for too long or you will 0:16:47.640 --> 0:16:50.080 lose your sanity. I I think that I spent all 0:16:50.120 --> 0:16:53.280 morning looking at that. Is that a bad thing? I 0:16:53.320 --> 0:16:56.200 looked right in the trap ray? All right? So um, 0:16:56.280 --> 0:16:58.120 let's go on to my next one. I said that 0:16:58.160 --> 0:16:59.880 there will be a new iPhone, but it will be 0:17:00.000 --> 0:17:03.520 an incriminal improvement and not a huge departure from the 0:17:03.520 --> 0:17:06.880 previous generation of iPhones. So the iPhone five I said 0:17:06.880 --> 0:17:08.960 it wasn't going to be a big change from iPhone five. 0:17:09.920 --> 0:17:13.520 Depending upon how you look at it, you might agree 0:17:13.600 --> 0:17:15.560 or disagree with that. I'm willing to give you this 0:17:15.600 --> 0:17:19.040 one because I think that the I mean, yes, there 0:17:19.080 --> 0:17:22.880 were some some big bits to the to the five 0:17:23.119 --> 0:17:26.160 S and the five C more the five S, right Yeah. 0:17:26.160 --> 0:17:27.639 The five C was more or less the five but 0:17:27.720 --> 0:17:31.000 in different colors. Right Um? Yeah, casing does not count 0:17:31.000 --> 0:17:33.080 as an upgrade. That is exactly the sort of thing 0:17:33.080 --> 0:17:35.000 that you were talking about in in your and I 0:17:35.000 --> 0:17:36.879 think that if it had just been the five C released, 0:17:36.960 --> 0:17:40.280 then you wouldn't find your your win or failed to 0:17:40.280 --> 0:17:42.199 be Yeah, I wouldn't be Yeah, I wouldn't it be 0:17:42.240 --> 0:17:44.920 a debate at all. And to be fair, it's funny 0:17:44.960 --> 0:17:47.040 because in that episode, if you go back and listen 0:17:47.080 --> 0:17:49.280 to it, Lauren, you refer to it as it's probably 0:17:49.320 --> 0:17:51.520 gonna be like an iPhone five S, which is exactly 0:17:51.520 --> 0:17:54.399 what they called it, and so that also indicates from 0:17:54.440 --> 0:17:57.119 Apple that it is not a huge jump, because I 0:17:57.200 --> 0:18:01.040 didn't call it the iPhone six. So I guess you know, 0:18:01.200 --> 0:18:03.840 that kind of fits in there. Obviously, anyone who's followed 0:18:03.840 --> 0:18:06.800 the iPhone news you are all aware of this. So UM, 0:18:06.800 --> 0:18:10.040 on that one, it looks like I'm getting a Technicolor squid, 0:18:10.320 --> 0:18:13.280 mostly because of the cases. So that's kind of cute. 0:18:14.600 --> 0:18:17.640 Lots lots of squids come in technicolor. Actually, yeah, well 0:18:17.840 --> 0:18:20.280 you know they do. When I'm done with them, that's 0:18:20.320 --> 0:18:22.919 for sure. Not positive what that means, neither do I. 0:18:23.040 --> 0:18:26.200 Let's move on to the next one, okay. Um I 0:18:26.280 --> 0:18:30.040 predicted that Apple, speaking speaking of Apple, that Apple would 0:18:30.080 --> 0:18:32.359 hold on to its share of the mobile market and 0:18:32.400 --> 0:18:35.640 that Android would be in second place, and this was um. 0:18:36.040 --> 0:18:39.080 Apple was holding forty eight percent of the mobile market 0:18:39.119 --> 0:18:41.520 share at the time of the podcast. UM. Due to 0:18:41.720 --> 0:18:44.680 the iPhone five release, it was it was up from 0:18:44.680 --> 0:18:49.040 about right, and and Google had dropped down to below 0:18:49.320 --> 0:18:52.160 what Apple had. It was somewhere in the forty range. Yeah, yeah, 0:18:52.280 --> 0:18:55.080 and I was so wrong. Um, I was really completely wrong, 0:18:55.119 --> 0:18:59.760 you guys, because according to com Score, Apple had a 0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:02.879 forty point six percent of the US market and Google 0:19:02.920 --> 0:19:06.840 had fifty one and BlackBerry was down to three point 0:19:06.960 --> 0:19:10.840 eight ouch boy, BlackBerry. But we neither of us made 0:19:10.840 --> 0:19:14.680 any predictions for BlackBerry this for this past year. But 0:19:15.040 --> 0:19:17.560 I think it's because you were too depressed. Yeah, I mean, 0:19:17.640 --> 0:19:20.680 you know, I never owned My wife owned a BlackBerry once, 0:19:20.720 --> 0:19:23.200 but I never owned a BlackBerry. But you know, it's 0:19:23.200 --> 0:19:25.520 one of those companies that I really wanted to see 0:19:25.560 --> 0:19:30.399 turn it around because obviously more competition benefits everybody ultimately. 0:19:31.080 --> 0:19:33.400 But yeah, they've just had such a rough time of it. 0:19:33.760 --> 0:19:37.159 But despite the fact that you know, Apple fell and 0:19:37.240 --> 0:19:42.719 market share, they still are the dominant hardware because Apple 0:19:42.800 --> 0:19:46.520 makes its own mobile sets right by far dominant and hardware, 0:19:46.760 --> 0:19:49.879 So they have forty point six you know, that is 0:19:49.880 --> 0:19:52.760 for the operating system. Uh, they also is for the 0:19:52.800 --> 0:19:55.879 hardware because Apple makes both operating system and the hardware, 0:19:56.119 --> 0:19:59.600 whereas Google just makes the operating system. And unless you're there. 0:19:59.720 --> 0:20:02.159 You can to their Motorola Google too, since they acquired it. 0:20:02.200 --> 0:20:05.640 But but there are dozens upon hundreds of Yeah, there's 0:20:05.640 --> 0:20:09.560 a new one every every every darn week, he said, 0:20:09.760 --> 0:20:12.560 self editing. Yeah, there's a new one every darn week. 0:20:12.640 --> 0:20:16.440 And and so when you look at the actual hardware, 0:20:16.560 --> 0:20:20.240 Apple is the dominant player in the mobile market space 0:20:20.280 --> 0:20:24.480 market market space marketplace. There are words that Jonathan can say. 0:20:24.640 --> 0:20:26.919 You know what, Jonathan's going to say a lot more words, 0:20:27.280 --> 0:20:29.359 but Jonathan is going to wait to say those words 0:20:29.560 --> 0:20:31.560 for the second half of our podcast. And we're gonna 0:20:31.600 --> 0:20:35.680 take a quick break to thank our sponsor. Okay, we're back, 0:20:35.720 --> 0:20:37.960 and you know what, We're not done with Apple yet. 0:20:38.080 --> 0:20:41.960 So all all the all the people who are on 0:20:41.960 --> 0:20:43.600 one side of the camp or the other can yell 0:20:43.640 --> 0:20:47.800 at us. So I welcome that. I welcome the yelling. 0:20:47.840 --> 0:20:49.919 But they're they're they're a big company we we like, 0:20:50.320 --> 0:20:52.800 and they're very influential as it turns out. So my 0:20:52.960 --> 0:20:55.520 next prediction was that the next versions of iOS and 0:20:55.600 --> 0:20:57.639 mac os will be similar to one another, but the 0:20:57.680 --> 0:21:00.879 two would not yet merge into us thele operating system 0:21:00.920 --> 0:21:03.960 across multiple platforms, because you know, we're seeing this sort 0:21:03.960 --> 0:21:06.600 of one of my favorite words in the world, convergence 0:21:07.080 --> 0:21:11.440 between the energy synergy scissor g wait, know that's something else. 0:21:11.760 --> 0:21:14.119 So we're seeing, uh, we're not seeing the plants come 0:21:14.160 --> 0:21:16.640 into alignment, but we are seeing these operating systems get 0:21:16.680 --> 0:21:18.800 closer and closer to one another, so that you have 0:21:18.880 --> 0:21:22.600 kind of a smooth transition across multiple platforms, so that 0:21:22.800 --> 0:21:25.080