1
00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:13,200
Speaker 1: Get in test with technology with text stuff from that everyone,

2
00:00:13,200 --> 00:00:16,360
Speaker 1: and welcome to tex Stuff. This is Jonathan Strickland and

3
00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:19,119
Speaker 1: I'm Lauren And you know what, there's something that we

4
00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:22,360
Speaker 1: like to do every year. Uh. And then there's also

5
00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:25,239
Speaker 1: these prediction shows that we do. So every year we

6
00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:27,800
Speaker 1: do on tech Stuff of prediction about what's going to

7
00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:30,159
Speaker 1: happen in the world of technology over the course of

8
00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:33,599
Speaker 1: the following twelve months. Jonathan despises doing this, and it's

9
00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:36,199
Speaker 1: not so much that I despise it, it's just that, Uh,

10
00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:39,600
Speaker 1: I dread it. Um. I love making the predictions. I

11
00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:42,560
Speaker 1: dread this time of year where we take the predictions

12
00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:46,159
Speaker 1: we made twelve months ago and then we ourselves harshly. Yeah,

13
00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:50,120
Speaker 1: we do a report card. If you remember in past episodes, Uh,

14
00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:52,720
Speaker 1: when it was me and Chris, I would get all

15
00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:54,760
Speaker 1: check marks and Chris got all x is. But I

16
00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:57,280
Speaker 1: understand we have a different grading system this time that

17
00:00:57,440 --> 00:01:01,360
Speaker 1: involves some form of life. So I guess we'll have

18
00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:03,920
Speaker 1: to judge how well we do as we go along.

19
00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:05,679
Speaker 1: We'll work it out as we go. Um. This was

20
00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:07,800
Speaker 1: actually one of the first episodes that I recorded with

21
00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:10,080
Speaker 1: Tech Stuff, and listening back to it was pretty embarrassing,

22
00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:12,160
Speaker 1: And so I want to say thank you to everyone

23
00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:14,479
Speaker 1: who has continued listening to tech stuff despite the fact

24
00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:17,080
Speaker 1: that you had to hear my learning curve, considering that

25
00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:20,800
Speaker 1: you had never podcast before. Really, I don't think it was,

26
00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:23,400
Speaker 1: you know, dreadful or anything. So you're being really hard

27
00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:25,600
Speaker 1: on yourself. I no, no, no, that that's but that's

28
00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:28,880
Speaker 1: but that's a good indicator for this episode to come. Yes, yes,

29
00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:31,360
Speaker 1: we are now going to take a look at the

30
00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:35,960
Speaker 1: predictions we made and say what happened. So now both

31
00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:39,280
Speaker 1: of us made a bunch of pretty safe predictions, or

32
00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:42,520
Speaker 1: at least what seemed like safe at the time. Yeah,

33
00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:45,759
Speaker 1: you know, I think we haven't discussed when we're gonna

34
00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:47,760
Speaker 1: do our our predictions for two thousand and fourteen. We

35
00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:50,320
Speaker 1: are planning on doing that, but I think I might

36
00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:52,520
Speaker 1: go a little more crazy next time because some of

37
00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:55,720
Speaker 1: the ones when I went back over and I'm like, well, geez, Jonathan,

38
00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:58,240
Speaker 1: thanks for predicting that if you go into the water

39
00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:01,000
Speaker 1: you will get wet. Yeah, your first one is a

40
00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:03,040
Speaker 1: little bit like that. Yeah, And my first one was

41
00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:07,560
Speaker 1: that mobile web browsing would outpace desktop browsing. Now, granted

42
00:02:07,680 --> 00:02:10,920
Speaker 1: this was one of those things that seemed pretty pretty

43
00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:13,680
Speaker 1: sure based upon the trend on the edge at the

44
00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:16,400
Speaker 1: end of but it hadn't actually pushed over, which it

45
00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:20,480
Speaker 1: really pretty promptly didn't. Yeah, exactly, I didn't take very long.

46
00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:23,639
Speaker 1: And the way that there are different ways of measuring

47
00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:28,240
Speaker 1: this obviously, but calm Score, which is often cited as

48
00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:31,280
Speaker 1: one of the analysts companies that will look into this

49
00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:33,400
Speaker 1: sort of stuff, the way they looked at it as

50
00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:35,600
Speaker 1: they looked at mobile web browsing when it came to

51
00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:41,320
Speaker 1: online shopping, and they discovered that online shopping through mobile

52
00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:44,280
Speaker 1: was being done like fifty at the time and that

53
00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:47,640
Speaker 1: the other were PCs. So if you look at it

54
00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:52,560
Speaker 1: just from a shopping standpoint, mobile browsing overtook PCs, and

55
00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:56,280
Speaker 1: they extrapolate to say that other types of browsing follows

56
00:02:56,320 --> 00:03:00,200
Speaker 1: suit based upon the the online shopping model. Uh, out

57
00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:06,919
Speaker 1: of that most of that of that was from smartphones

58
00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:10,720
Speaker 1: and the other eleven percent of that was from tablets.

59
00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:15,960
Speaker 1: So even with online shopping, smartphones are still outpacing tablets

60
00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:19,040
Speaker 1: when it comes to that particular version of mobile web browsing.

61
00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:24,000
Speaker 1: So anyway, it appears that this prediction was pretty much true.

62
00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:29,040
Speaker 1: So gave me so according to our new scoring system,

63
00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:33,239
Speaker 1: I get two squids and an ink sac. That's pretty good.

64
00:03:33,639 --> 00:03:38,920
Speaker 1: Als okay, I guess alright, So, Lauren, what was your

65
00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:41,920
Speaker 1: first prediction? My first prediction was that laptop sales would

66
00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:45,920
Speaker 1: make a comeback while desktop sales continued to decline, and

67
00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:48,960
Speaker 1: that tablets um wouldn't perform as well as as they

68
00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:51,600
Speaker 1: had been, like, it'll slow down, that it would kind

69
00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:53,400
Speaker 1: of slow down and even out as people realize that

70
00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:56,880
Speaker 1: they needed more power and practicality and tablets could really

71
00:03:56,920 --> 00:04:02,440
Speaker 1: provide UM. And I was pretty wrong. I was not

72
00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:06,280
Speaker 1: correct about that. Well. To be fair, there were a

73
00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:10,480
Speaker 1: lot of factors that went into making this complicated issue,

74
00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:13,880
Speaker 1: one of which was something that will factor into another prediction,

75
00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:16,640
Speaker 1: which I would say is Windows eight. Windows eight I

76
00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:19,480
Speaker 1: think actually discouraged people from getting laptop. Yeah. It did

77
00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:21,920
Speaker 1: way more poorly than I think anyone expected it. At

78
00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:25,360
Speaker 1: the end of to do. Yeah, a lot of companies

79
00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:30,160
Speaker 1: had declines that continued in both desktop and laptop sales,

80
00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:33,520
Speaker 1: although one company started to make up some ground and

81
00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:37,680
Speaker 1: market share. From what I understand, Apple apples have always

82
00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:40,760
Speaker 1: been trailing behind like Windows based PCs when it comes

83
00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:44,360
Speaker 1: to market share, particularly in the US, but inten they

84
00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:46,839
Speaker 1: hit twelve percent of the market share, and some analysts

85
00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:48,400
Speaker 1: were saying that they have the potential to get up

86
00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:51,160
Speaker 1: to the market in the near future, which would be

87
00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:55,480
Speaker 1: a huge coup for Apple. Yeah. Um was actually the

88
00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:58,039
Speaker 1: first year since two thousand three that Max sales dropped,

89
00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:01,960
Speaker 1: but their laptops are outsell in their desktops three to one. Yeah,

90
00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:04,520
Speaker 1: which not a big surprise because it wasn't until recently

91
00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:09,160
Speaker 1: that the desktop's got a major update. Yeah. According to MPD,

92
00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:11,920
Speaker 1: desktop and laptop sales fell by five and two percent

93
00:05:11,960 --> 00:05:15,960
Speaker 1: respectively during the whole back to school season, as opposed

94
00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:20,000
Speaker 1: to yeah, um, which is supposedly you know it's it's

95
00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:23,640
Speaker 1: usually the biggest time that computer sea sales. Yeah. Back

96
00:05:24,520 --> 00:05:27,640
Speaker 1: back to school and the holiday shopping season are like

97
00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:30,920
Speaker 1: the two most important times of the year for most

98
00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:35,360
Speaker 1: laptop However, those declines were mild compared to the rest

99
00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:41,000
Speaker 1: of the year. Um uh sales each quarter according to Gardner,

100
00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:45,120
Speaker 1: we're down about ten percent UM each quarter compared with

101
00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:49,480
Speaker 1: each quarter last year. But the tablet market is still growing.

102
00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:52,000
Speaker 1: Um Well, I mean, okay, it is slowing a little bit.

103
00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:55,159
Speaker 1: I wasn't completely wrong about it flattening a little. Um,

104
00:05:55,200 --> 00:06:00,000
Speaker 1: but it's over thirty six percent growth, which is not insignificant.

105
00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:03,120
Speaker 1: Yeah that's true. Uh, but you know, you also have

106
00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:07,120
Speaker 1: to look like the tablet market is still smaller than

107
00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:11,360
Speaker 1: the overall PC market, so when they grow, the percentages

108
00:06:11,360 --> 00:06:14,320
Speaker 1: are larger. Right Like Like if you if you sell

109
00:06:14,360 --> 00:06:17,360
Speaker 1: two units and then the next year you sell eight units,

110
00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:20,680
Speaker 1: that percentage growth is huge. If you're selling two million

111
00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:22,640
Speaker 1: units and the next year you sell two and fifty

112
00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:27,360
Speaker 1: million units, that relative growth is small. So it's tablet

113
00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:29,440
Speaker 1: market really didn't exist until what was a two thousand

114
00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:31,200
Speaker 1: nine when the first I pad came out. Yeah, I

115
00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:34,279
Speaker 1: mean yeah, the the previous tablets had not really had

116
00:06:34,320 --> 00:06:37,760
Speaker 1: any consumer penetration at all. So uh, yeah, it's but

117
00:06:37,839 --> 00:06:39,560
Speaker 1: it is. It does look like it's starting to mature,

118
00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:42,360
Speaker 1: like it's starting to slow down. So I agree that

119
00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:44,320
Speaker 1: you were right on that one. So, um, I'm gonna

120
00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:46,880
Speaker 1: give you. I'm giving you a squid and a half,

121
00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:49,880
Speaker 1: but you also apparently get a squid squeaky toy. I

122
00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:53,680
Speaker 1: don't know what that means. That sounds fine, okay, Um,

123
00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:57,080
Speaker 1: I got My next prediction was enterprises will resist adopting

124
00:06:57,120 --> 00:07:01,160
Speaker 1: Windows eight another gimme um, because I mean, any time

125
00:07:01,200 --> 00:07:03,599
Speaker 1: a new operating system comes out, enterprises are going to

126
00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:06,800
Speaker 1: lag behind consumers, even if the operating system is is

127
00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:10,000
Speaker 1: received with great joy and love. Oh absolutely, Because I

128
00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:13,400
Speaker 1: mean enterprises have companies have a whole systems that are

129
00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:16,800
Speaker 1: based upon a single operating system and changing them all

130
00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:19,720
Speaker 1: over is time consuming and there's testing involved, and it's

131
00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:22,760
Speaker 1: expensive and u scary, so you never know if it's

132
00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:25,040
Speaker 1: going to work and and then you end up having

133
00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:28,200
Speaker 1: made an investment and then you eat the expense if

134
00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:31,200
Speaker 1: it doesn't work out. So not a big surprise. What

135
00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:34,040
Speaker 1: was kind of interesting to me was that Windows eight

136
00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:35,800
Speaker 1: did seem to be a little bit of a of

137
00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:38,760
Speaker 1: an albatross, Like it didn't get a lot of love

138
00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:42,840
Speaker 1: for many people. Like a lot of people really didn't

139
00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:45,160
Speaker 1: like that operating system when it came out. And like

140
00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:47,720
Speaker 1: I said, it may have even contributed to that two

141
00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:54,200
Speaker 1: people resisting purchasing a new notebook. So that's not great.

142
00:07:54,480 --> 00:07:58,480
Speaker 1: But um but but but but good call on that one.

143
00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:01,560
Speaker 1: Umdeed do you have do you have a I'm looking

144
00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:05,280
Speaker 1: I'm consulting my squid uh profile here According to this,

145
00:08:05,400 --> 00:08:10,040
Speaker 1: I don't get a squid, but I get a squib.

146
00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:12,160
Speaker 1: So if you shoot me, then I get the little

147
00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:15,560
Speaker 1: bit of pop noise like in an action movie. So

148
00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:17,800
Speaker 1: that's something. Did some tentacles come out along with the

149
00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:21,480
Speaker 1: blood with me? Yes? Excellent. Yes, it's mostly because we're

150
00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:26,120
Speaker 1: eight lunch. I'm not even going to ask about that.

151
00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:29,320
Speaker 1: So my second prediction was that UM touch screens would

152
00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:33,679
Speaker 1: be integrated into more products, including most laptops and UM

153
00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:37,920
Speaker 1: and display. Yeah, like things like that, like a secondary

154
00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:40,000
Speaker 1: display for your computer or even a main display for

155
00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:44,000
Speaker 1: your computer. That was that was you were you were

156
00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:46,880
Speaker 1: you were. I think being very optimistic. I was, and

157
00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:49,520
Speaker 1: I think I think the trend is definitely there. I

158
00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:52,160
Speaker 1: think it's there and I and it definitely didn't happen

159
00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:53,920
Speaker 1: this year. I think it's going to happen in the

160
00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:56,280
Speaker 1: next like two years. I think I was being way

161
00:08:56,280 --> 00:08:59,760
Speaker 1: too optimistic. But still the trend is obviously there. I mean,

162
00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:04,120
Speaker 1: because people have grown to love the whole touch screen experience.

163
00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:07,160
Speaker 1: It's just a question of does that translate to the

164
00:09:07,280 --> 00:09:11,080
Speaker 1: laptop and desktop experience and can you create something that's

165
00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:13,320
Speaker 1: compelling enough to make that a reason for you to

166
00:09:13,400 --> 00:09:16,720
Speaker 1: have that feature in your in your device. Everyone was

167
00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:18,680
Speaker 1: hoping that Windows eight was going to be that thing.

168
00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:21,079
Speaker 1: It was not. It was not that thing, and the

169
00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:23,720
Speaker 1: new mac os is kind of also not that thing.

170
00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:26,920
Speaker 1: That's not something that Apple has moved toward yet, but

171
00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:30,160
Speaker 1: it's still a possibility to And it's not like it's

172
00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:33,599
Speaker 1: not like people weren't including them. There were lots of

173
00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:36,120
Speaker 1: of models out there that did include them. Yeah. According

174
00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:40,960
Speaker 1: to MPD, about of all notebooks shipped in had touch screens,

175
00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:43,960
Speaker 1: which sounds like a relatively small number until you think

176
00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:48,720
Speaker 1: about the fact that before basically none, ye hardly like

177
00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:51,560
Speaker 1: some at the very tail end of just leading into

178
00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:55,360
Speaker 1: c E S and uh yeah, so that's actually quite

179
00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:57,920
Speaker 1: a large number. I mean, that's a big gamble for

180
00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:00,360
Speaker 1: a company to do, is to invest in that kind

181
00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:04,520
Speaker 1: of new technology because that's going to impact everything that

182
00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:08,080
Speaker 1: that product encounters from that moment on. Right. So, Um,

183
00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:10,040
Speaker 1: so eleven percent is actually pretty big, and it all

184
00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:14,240
Speaker 1: depended upon which company you're talking about. They had different numbers. Yeah,

185
00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:16,480
Speaker 1: I think Sony had a lot, didn't think Yep, seventeen

186
00:10:16,520 --> 00:10:19,240
Speaker 1: point six percent of all notebooks they shipped were equipped

187
00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:22,880
Speaker 1: with touch screens. However, um, they did not make up

188
00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:27,199
Speaker 1: a majority of the actual touch screens on the market,

189
00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:31,000
Speaker 1: whereas Lenovo, Uh, they only had seven point four percent

190
00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:34,400
Speaker 1: of all of their laptops shipping with touch screens, but

191
00:10:34,679 --> 00:10:37,960
Speaker 1: they they accounted for fourteen point seven percent of the

192
00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:41,120
Speaker 1: touch screen laptop market share. Yeah. So, in other words,

193
00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:44,160
Speaker 1: Lenovo had if you look at all the stuff they offered,

194
00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:46,360
Speaker 1: a smaller percentage of it had touch screens, but they

195
00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:49,000
Speaker 1: made up the majority of the touch screens based upon

196
00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:52,000
Speaker 1: other companies are buying. Yeah, so that might mean that

197
00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:55,880
Speaker 1: Lenovo's you know, cheaper. Yeah, they were more attuned to

198
00:10:55,920 --> 00:11:00,320
Speaker 1: their customers a cheaper Yes, that is usually what that means.

199
00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:03,200
Speaker 1: Um so, uh so what are what are we What

200
00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:05,000
Speaker 1: are we going to give me? According to our squid

201
00:11:05,040 --> 00:11:09,880
Speaker 1: valuation system, you get a sucker, not tentacle sucker, but

202
00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:14,560
Speaker 1: like a lollypo, it's squid flavored. Yeah, that's what you get.

203
00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:18,440
Speaker 1: Moving on, I'm failing to see how that's a positive. No,

204
00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:20,240
Speaker 1: you know, it all depends on whether or not you

205
00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:23,640
Speaker 1: like squid. Uh. You know, it's like, you know, Calamari pops.

206
00:11:23,679 --> 00:11:28,800
Speaker 1: It's the newest thing. So the next part another gimme, man,

207
00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:31,000
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to stick my neck out more next year,

208
00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:34,000
Speaker 1: I'm reading these and just like, how lamed could I get?

209
00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:37,800
Speaker 1: I said that the the NFC near field communication would

210
00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:40,800
Speaker 1: not receive wide adoption in the United States, partly because

211
00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:43,040
Speaker 1: Apple would not play ball. In other words, Apple was

212
00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:46,640
Speaker 1: not going to incorporate NFC and its next iPhone. I'll

213
00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:49,240
Speaker 1: have more to say about their next iPhone shortly, but

214
00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:52,000
Speaker 1: I said that NFC just wasn't gonna get any traction

215
00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:54,840
Speaker 1: in the United States on a meaningful level, and indeed

216
00:11:54,840 --> 00:11:57,640
Speaker 1: it did not know because again Apple did not include it.

217
00:11:57,640 --> 00:11:59,880
Speaker 1: And I think that's a huge part of it is that,

218
00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:03,400
Speaker 1: you know, without without Apple getting on board, there's uh,

219
00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:06,680
Speaker 1: you know, that's that's big. That's a that's a sizeable

220
00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:11,559
Speaker 1: percentage of the smartphone poppy of your smartphone population can't

221
00:12:11,760 --> 00:12:15,200
Speaker 1: use the technology. Yeah, then you're like, well, why would

222
00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:18,320
Speaker 1: I invest in this if potential, especially if you've made

223
00:12:18,320 --> 00:12:22,760
Speaker 1: the determination that perhaps your customers happen to be iPhone customers,

224
00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:25,439
Speaker 1: They're like, well, I could spend a hundred thousand dollars

225
00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:28,800
Speaker 1: retrofitting my my my vending so that I can take

226
00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:32,600
Speaker 1: advantage of this, but if my clientele don't use it,

227
00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:36,480
Speaker 1: then that's just a waste of money. So then, uh, yeah,

228
00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:38,920
Speaker 1: and the reasons, the reasons for this, I mean are

229
00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:42,199
Speaker 1: are basically what we talked about in that episode. It's

230
00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:47,439
Speaker 1: it's the cost of implementation, the concern about security, that's

231
00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:50,960
Speaker 1: a big one, oh sure, the you know, the lack

232
00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:53,640
Speaker 1: of consumer awareness about it. I mean, if you haven't

233
00:12:53,679 --> 00:12:56,120
Speaker 1: been to Europe recently here in the US, and you're

234
00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:58,679
Speaker 1: from the US, then yeah, you don't even know, Like

235
00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:01,400
Speaker 1: you might not even be aware that this is a possibility.

236
00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:04,000
Speaker 1: I mean people who have been using things like I've

237
00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:06,079
Speaker 1: got a Nexus four phone and that has an n

238
00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:08,160
Speaker 1: FC chip in it. I've got a Nexus seven tablet

239
00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:10,120
Speaker 1: and that has an NFC chip in it. I have

240
00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:14,440
Speaker 1: never used either of those products with the NFC, so

241
00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:17,120
Speaker 1: but I'm aware of it because I own two of them.

242
00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:20,080
Speaker 1: But even I haven't used them. And uh and even

243
00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:22,880
Speaker 1: vendors not realizing the benefit that they would have of

244
00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:24,880
Speaker 1: getting that kind of thing out here, right, So, so

245
00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:27,160
Speaker 1: there are a lot of things that challenges that have

246
00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:29,800
Speaker 1: to be overcome before we see this become something that

247
00:13:30,280 --> 00:13:32,680
Speaker 1: actually is is in widespread use in the United States.

248
00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:36,160
Speaker 1: So that's a gimme. According to this I get h

249
00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:40,920
Speaker 1: just a beak. I think it's from a squid. I

250
00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:43,720
Speaker 1: gotta make better predictions. We we we really need to

251
00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:48,080
Speaker 1: talk to to this squid referral provider. It's it's stuff

252
00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:51,800
Speaker 1: to blow your minds. Robert, I don't know what he's

253
00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:54,400
Speaker 1: been going through. Apparently he got really upset when we

254
00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:58,640
Speaker 1: suggested that perhaps he was leaving human teeth around the office. Yeah,

255
00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:01,920
Speaker 1: there was, So this is a tangent, you guys. But

256
00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:04,440
Speaker 1: but I found like a little plastic baggy of of

257
00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:06,679
Speaker 1: what appears to be human teeth in one of our

258
00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:09,400
Speaker 1: conference rooms, just sitting on the on the tray of

259
00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:13,520
Speaker 1: our white board. Yeah, like just hanging out. I mean

260
00:14:13,520 --> 00:14:16,440
Speaker 1: they're they're clean looking. And Robert claims he didn't do it,

261
00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:19,360
Speaker 1: but he would have been my number one suspect. I

262
00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:23,040
Speaker 1: personally blame Matt. And that is right here, that is

263
00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:25,040
Speaker 1: sitting in for us, and he's staring at us with

264
00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:28,760
Speaker 1: creepy eyes. But technically those were just Matt's eyes. So

265
00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:31,840
Speaker 1: and he's nodding slowly. All right, Well, anyway, let's get

266
00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:35,680
Speaker 1: back to another one of your suggests, your suggestions, your predictions. Yes,

267
00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:37,760
Speaker 1: my next prediction was that the Internet of things would

268
00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:41,000
Speaker 1: become more of a thing. Um, with more interconnected systems

269
00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:44,560
Speaker 1: taking off. Yeah, and commercially speaking, this is this is accurate.

270
00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:46,880
Speaker 1: We saw it, We saw a few launched. I think

271
00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:48,520
Speaker 1: I think that you're more willing to give me that

272
00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:51,160
Speaker 1: one than I am. Um. I mean, I've I've kind

273
00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:53,520
Speaker 1: of incidentally seen a lot of seen and heard a

274
00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:55,480
Speaker 1: lot of commercials for this kind of stuff. I haven't

275
00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:58,640
Speaker 1: been able to find any numbers of the number of

276
00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:02,040
Speaker 1: adoption yet. Um, but the fact that it's a product

277
00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:04,520
Speaker 1: that more people have access to is pretty nifty. Yeah.

278
00:15:04,560 --> 00:15:06,640
Speaker 1: It used to be that you were only only like

279
00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:11,240
Speaker 1: bleeding edge adopters who had ridiculous amounts of money and uh,

280
00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:14,160
Speaker 1: and we're willing to go through a contractor to get

281
00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:17,240
Speaker 1: home automation. Only they had access to this kind of stuff.

282
00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:19,520
Speaker 1: We're just now starting to see it enter into the

283
00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:22,880
Speaker 1: consumer marketplace where the average person can go into like

284
00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:25,640
Speaker 1: a hardware store and buy stuff that has Internet of

285
00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:28,760
Speaker 1: Things capabilities, Like the next Thermostatic came out with a

286
00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:30,640
Speaker 1: new model this year, and they came out with a

287
00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:34,200
Speaker 1: new smoke detector this year. So we're seeing it more

288
00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:38,400
Speaker 1: and more. I personally happen to have Internet Internet connected

289
00:15:38,520 --> 00:15:41,040
Speaker 1: light bulbs, so I can turn my lights on and

290
00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:45,560
Speaker 1: off wherever I am. Yeah, so, uh, it's too bad.

291
00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:47,320
Speaker 1: I should do the thing they did in the Big

292
00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:50,960
Speaker 1: Bang theory, where I create a lamp that has one

293
00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:52,760
Speaker 1: of these bulbs in it and then just give the

294
00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:55,320
Speaker 1: Internet access to it and they can turn the lamp

295
00:15:55,360 --> 00:15:58,360
Speaker 1: on and off whenever they want. That sounds like a

296
00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:01,240
Speaker 1: project of terror to me personally. It could be interesting.

297
00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:05,080
Speaker 1: I could end up getting Morse code. But I have

298
00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:07,360
Speaker 1: not done that Internet, so don't expect to find it

299
00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:09,160
Speaker 1: right now. But you know I do have. I mean,

300
00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:13,120
Speaker 1: most know whether or not you're interested. Maybe I'm biased

301
00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:16,960
Speaker 1: about the Internet of Things because I'm I'm technically an

302
00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:20,240
Speaker 1: early adopter. Yeah well, I mean, okay, predictions from both

303
00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:23,560
Speaker 1: Disco and Intelligence estimate that the decade long growth of

304
00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:28,080
Speaker 1: the technology will will will be ninefold um. And that's

305
00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:31,080
Speaker 1: that's big um. But you know, I'm still I am

306
00:16:31,080 --> 00:16:33,640
Speaker 1: still saying that I was a little bit premature on

307
00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:36,000
Speaker 1: this one. All right, Well, you're you are your own harsh,

308
00:16:36,120 --> 00:16:39,480
Speaker 1: harshest critic, right, you get for that six squid. But

309
00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:42,640
Speaker 1: they all are occupying the exact same space at the

310
00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:46,120
Speaker 1: exact same time. So it's terror to look at. So

311
00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:47,600
Speaker 1: don't look at it for too long or you will

312
00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:50,080
Speaker 1: lose your sanity. I I think that I spent all

313
00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:53,280
Speaker 1: morning looking at that. Is that a bad thing? I

314
00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:56,200
Speaker 1: looked right in the trap ray? All right? So um,

315
00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:58,120
Speaker 1: let's go on to my next one. I said that

316
00:16:58,160 --> 00:16:59,880
Speaker 1: there will be a new iPhone, but it will be

317
00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:03,520
Speaker 1: an incriminal improvement and not a huge departure from the

318
00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:06,880
Speaker 1: previous generation of iPhones. So the iPhone five I said

319
00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:08,960
Speaker 1: it wasn't going to be a big change from iPhone five.

320
00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:13,520
Speaker 1: Depending upon how you look at it, you might agree

321
00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:15,560
Speaker 1: or disagree with that. I'm willing to give you this

322
00:17:15,600 --> 00:17:19,040
Speaker 1: one because I think that the I mean, yes, there

323
00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:22,880
Speaker 1: were some some big bits to the to the five

324
00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:26,160
Speaker 1: S and the five C more the five S, right Yeah.

325
00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:27,639
Speaker 1: The five C was more or less the five but

326
00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:31,000
Speaker 1: in different colors. Right Um? Yeah, casing does not count

327
00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:33,080
Speaker 1: as an upgrade. That is exactly the sort of thing

328
00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:35,000
Speaker 1: that you were talking about in in your and I

329
00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:36,879
Speaker 1: think that if it had just been the five C released,

330
00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:40,280
Speaker 1: then you wouldn't find your your win or failed to

331
00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:42,199
Speaker 1: be Yeah, I wouldn't be Yeah, I wouldn't it be

332
00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:44,920
Speaker 1: a debate at all. And to be fair, it's funny

333
00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:47,040
Speaker 1: because in that episode, if you go back and listen

334
00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:49,280
Speaker 1: to it, Lauren, you refer to it as it's probably

335
00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:51,520
Speaker 1: gonna be like an iPhone five S, which is exactly

336
00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:54,399
Speaker 1: what they called it, and so that also indicates from

337
00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:57,119
Speaker 1: Apple that it is not a huge jump, because I

338
00:17:57,200 --> 00:18:01,040
Speaker 1: didn't call it the iPhone six. So I guess you know,

339
00:18:01,200 --> 00:18:03,840
Speaker 1: that kind of fits in there. Obviously, anyone who's followed

340
00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:06,800
Speaker 1: the iPhone news you are all aware of this. So UM,

341
00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:10,040
Speaker 1: on that one, it looks like I'm getting a Technicolor squid,

342
00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:13,280
Speaker 1: mostly because of the cases. So that's kind of cute.

343
00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:17,640
Speaker 1: Lots lots of squids come in technicolor. Actually, yeah, well

344
00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:20,280
Speaker 1: you know they do. When I'm done with them, that's

345
00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:22,919
Speaker 1: for sure. Not positive what that means, neither do I.

346
00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:26,200
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the next one, okay. Um I

347
00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:30,040
Speaker 1: predicted that Apple, speaking speaking of Apple, that Apple would

348
00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:32,359
Speaker 1: hold on to its share of the mobile market and

349
00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:35,640
Speaker 1: that Android would be in second place, and this was um.

350
00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:39,080
Speaker 1: Apple was holding forty eight percent of the mobile market

351
00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:41,520
Speaker 1: share at the time of the podcast. UM. Due to

352
00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:44,680
Speaker 1: the iPhone five release, it was it was up from

353
00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:49,040
Speaker 1: about right, and and Google had dropped down to below

354
00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:52,160
Speaker 1: what Apple had. It was somewhere in the forty range. Yeah, yeah,

355
00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:55,080
Speaker 1: and I was so wrong. Um, I was really completely wrong,

356
00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:59,760
Speaker 1: you guys, because according to com Score, Apple had a

357
00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:02,879
Speaker 1: forty point six percent of the US market and Google

358
00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:06,840
Speaker 1: had fifty one and BlackBerry was down to three point

359
00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:10,840
Speaker 1: eight ouch boy, BlackBerry. But we neither of us made

360
00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:14,680
Speaker 1: any predictions for BlackBerry this for this past year. But

361
00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:17,560
Speaker 1: I think it's because you were too depressed. Yeah, I mean,

362
00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:20,680
Speaker 1: you know, I never owned My wife owned a BlackBerry once,

363
00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:23,200
Speaker 1: but I never owned a BlackBerry. But you know, it's

364
00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:25,520
Speaker 1: one of those companies that I really wanted to see

365
00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:30,399
Speaker 1: turn it around because obviously more competition benefits everybody ultimately.

366
00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:33,400
Speaker 1: But yeah, they've just had such a rough time of it.

367
00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:37,159
Speaker 1: But despite the fact that you know, Apple fell and

368
00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:42,719
Speaker 1: market share, they still are the dominant hardware because Apple

369
00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:46,520
Speaker 1: makes its own mobile sets right by far dominant and hardware,

370
00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:49,879
Speaker 1: So they have forty point six you know, that is

371
00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:52,760
Speaker 1: for the operating system. Uh, they also is for the

372
00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:55,879
Speaker 1: hardware because Apple makes both operating system and the hardware,

373
00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:59,600
Speaker 1: whereas Google just makes the operating system. And unless you're there.

374
00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:02,159
Speaker 1: You can to their Motorola Google too, since they acquired it.

375
00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:05,640
Speaker 1: But but there are dozens upon hundreds of Yeah, there's

376
00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:09,560
Speaker 1: a new one every every every darn week, he said,

377
00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:12,560
Speaker 1: self editing. Yeah, there's a new one every darn week.

378
00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:16,440
Speaker 1: And and so when you look at the actual hardware,

379
00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:20,240
Speaker 1: Apple is the dominant player in the mobile market space

380
00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:24,480
Speaker 1: market market space marketplace. There are words that Jonathan can say.

381
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:26,919
Speaker 1: You know what, Jonathan's going to say a lot more words,

382
00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:29,359
Speaker 1: but Jonathan is going to wait to say those words

383
00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:31,560
Speaker 1: for the second half of our podcast. And we're gonna

384
00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:35,680
Speaker 1: take a quick break to thank our sponsor. Okay, we're back,

385
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:37,960
Speaker 1: and you know what, We're not done with Apple yet.

386
00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:41,960
Speaker 1: So all all the all the people who are on

387
00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:43,600
Speaker 1: one side of the camp or the other can yell

388
00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:47,800
Speaker 1: at us. So I welcome that. I welcome the yelling.

389
00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:49,919
Speaker 1: But they're they're they're a big company we we like,

390
00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:52,800
Speaker 1: and they're very influential as it turns out. So my

391
00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:55,520
Speaker 1: next prediction was that the next versions of iOS and

392
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:57,639
Speaker 1: mac os will be similar to one another, but the

393
00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:00,879
Speaker 1: two would not yet merge into us thele operating system

394
00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:03,960
Speaker 1: across multiple platforms, because you know, we're seeing this sort

395
00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:06,600
Speaker 1: of one of my favorite words in the world, convergence

396
00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:11,440
Speaker 1: between the energy synergy scissor g wait, know that's something else.

397
00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:14,119
Speaker 1: So we're seeing, uh, we're not seeing the plants come

398
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:16,640
Speaker 1: into alignment, but we are seeing these operating systems get

399
00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:18,800
Speaker 1: closer and closer to one another, so that you have

400
00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:22,600
Speaker 1: kind of a smooth transition across multiple platforms, so that

401
00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 1: if you're using an Apple phone and then you switch

402
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:28,720
Speaker 1: over to an Apple laptop or an Apple desktop, that

403
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:32,920
Speaker 1: that transition is fairly seamless. It's not to the point

404
00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:35,000
Speaker 1: where the operating systems are identical. And I said that

405
00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:36,600
Speaker 1: that was not going to happen this year, and I

406
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:39,560
Speaker 1: was right. But I think I think that you might

407
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:42,320
Speaker 1: have overstated how similar at the next Yeah, I don't.

408
00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:44,480
Speaker 1: I don't think they got as similar as in my

409
00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:47,080
Speaker 1: mind they were more similar. They were going to be

410
00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 1: more similar than they've turned out to be. I think

411
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:51,959
Speaker 1: that you were basing this on on the Windows eight model,

412
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:54,280
Speaker 1: And I think that part of part of why it

413
00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:56,840
Speaker 1: didn't happen is that Apple looked at how Windows eight

414
00:21:56,880 --> 00:22:00,800
Speaker 1: performed and you and I think Apple may have come

415
00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:03,960
Speaker 1: to a conclusion that it's just two different is two

416
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,120
Speaker 1: separate sets of things that you need to be able

417
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:08,159
Speaker 1: to do with these different types of hardware, and therefore

418
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:11,000
Speaker 1: there's no need to make it the same thing, whereas

419
00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:13,639
Speaker 1: Microsoft doesn't seem to follow that. Microsoft's like, no, we

420
00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:16,600
Speaker 1: want the same approach for everything. And you know, it's

421
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:18,880
Speaker 1: one of those arguments that keeps getting battered around. It's

422
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:20,880
Speaker 1: not saying that one is obviously better than the other.

423
00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:23,719
Speaker 1: It all depends on the implementation as well. So if

424
00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:25,800
Speaker 1: you make crappy OS and that's not going to help you,

425
00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:28,400
Speaker 1: whether whether you make a CRAPOS for your mobile handset

426
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:31,199
Speaker 1: or for the desktop. Sure, something about the OS that

427
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:35,119
Speaker 1: we could not have in any way predicted well two things.

428
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,320
Speaker 1: My favorite is the naming departures. Right that the naming

429
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 1: departure was a big one. The latest one is not

430
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:44,199
Speaker 1: named after a kittie cat. It is big big cats.

431
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:46,720
Speaker 1: I think that most I was really think it's gonna

432
00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,520
Speaker 1: be mac os ten Snuggles. It was just gonna be

433
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:51,480
Speaker 1: They're just gonna go with names that would be cute

434
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:54,119
Speaker 1: for kittens. I guess Mavericks could be the name of

435
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:56,840
Speaker 1: a cute kitten. I guess, so yeah, mac Os ten

436
00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:59,600
Speaker 1: Mavericks is the that's the name. And also it was

437
00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:01,679
Speaker 1: a free upgrade. You didn't have to pay for it.

438
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,040
Speaker 1: That was that was what really shocked me. I mean,

439
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:07,679
Speaker 1: depart despite the the first shock of it not being

440
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:10,399
Speaker 1: named after a big cat. So yeah, it was a

441
00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:13,680
Speaker 1: free upgrade and you could run more and more iOS

442
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 1: apps on that operating system. So that's a little bit

443
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 1: like what I said, but it's not exactly what I

444
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 1: had envisioned. So yeah, according to this, I get a

445
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:25,600
Speaker 1: tiny model of Cathulhu which I can find sitting on

446
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,880
Speaker 1: my desk. Actually, that's totally true. That's why I've got it.

447
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:31,679
Speaker 1: I didn't realize that this list was made by Roberts.

448
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,080
Speaker 1: So all right, well, I mean that's the squid ish,

449
00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:37,520
Speaker 1: all right, So let's go back to you. Uh yeah,

450
00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 1: I predicted that the new consoles would not have impressive

451
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:47,680
Speaker 1: sales initially, um, and that the Xbox One would out

452
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:52,280
Speaker 1: sell the past four like like crazy pants party time. Yeah. Well,

453
00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 1: to be fair, it's still early because we are recording this,

454
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:59,240
Speaker 1: by the way, in early December, which that means that

455
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 1: the holiday shopping is still in full swing. Um. Okay,

456
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 1: you're you're being You're being too kind, because both the

457
00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 1: PS four and the Xbox one sold a million consoles

458
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:12,200
Speaker 1: in twenty four hours. They did it under different conditions though,

459
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 1: which actually doesn't help you. It doesn't help my case, yeah,

460
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:19,040
Speaker 1: because the PS four sold a million consoles and was

461
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:23,040
Speaker 1: only offered in two countries initially, and Xbox One was

462
00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:26,960
Speaker 1: offered in thirteen, so it was a different playing field

463
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:29,800
Speaker 1: for both of them. Sony has reported selling two point

464
00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:32,920
Speaker 1: one million of these consoles. Microsoft hasn't said how many

465
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:38,680
Speaker 1: it's sold, just that it's unprecedented. So yeah, well, I'm

466
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:41,000
Speaker 1: glad that you sold more Xbox ones than you've ever

467
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 1: sold Xbox ones in the past, considering that you just

468
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:48,120
Speaker 1: started selling Xbox ones. I think that unprecedented is a

469
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:52,760
Speaker 1: terrific corporate speech for for for look to pay no

470
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:56,320
Speaker 1: attention to this man behind the curtain. Yeah, but anyway, Yeah,

471
00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:58,439
Speaker 1: so it does like the sales have gone really well.

472
00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 1: And the one thing that someone pointed out I thought

473
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:03,400
Speaker 1: this was really interesting, is that you cannot really compare

474
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:07,920
Speaker 1: the sales of these this new generation to previous generations,

475
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:10,760
Speaker 1: because in previous generations, one of the issues was that

476
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 1: the supply was never enough to meet the initial demand.

477
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:18,920
Speaker 1: So you had Sony selling out a p S three

478
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:22,680
Speaker 1: and Xbox selling out of Xbox three sixty shortages and stores,

479
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,600
Speaker 1: and that that kind of colors are perception of how

480
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:29,400
Speaker 1: popular these things are because you couldn't get them anywhere.

481
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 1: We was the same way. Yeah, yeah, although there's there's

482
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:33,480
Speaker 1: a little bit of that going on now. I checked

483
00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 1: on on Amazon today and you can currently purchase neither

484
00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:40,480
Speaker 1: the PS four North the Xbox One just put an

485
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:44,280
Speaker 1: order in weight, So yeah, I mean we we are

486
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:47,119
Speaker 1: recording this on December five, which is, you know, the

487
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:49,639
Speaker 1: week after Thanksgiving, so that might have something to do

488
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 1: with it. Probably had a little to do with it.

489
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:56,199
Speaker 1: So anyway, they have sold pretty well. We don't know

490
00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:58,920
Speaker 1: yet which one is going to win out. It looks

491
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 1: like the PS four is doing really really well initially,

492
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:04,919
Speaker 1: but personally, for this is just my own personal perspective,

493
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 1: neither console right now has a game that I really

494
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:10,919
Speaker 1: want to play on it, Like, neither of them have

495
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,159
Speaker 1: a killer game where I'm like, I have got to

496
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 1: get this console so I can play that game. I

497
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:19,680
Speaker 1: think that I think the developers are very smartly holding

498
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:23,080
Speaker 1: off on on the finalization of games that they know

499
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:25,360
Speaker 1: aren't ready to be finalized yet. And I think that

500
00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 1: that's just a wonderful, gorgeous thing that we have on

501
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 1: this modern um console platforms where where you know it,

502
00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:35,159
Speaker 1: it's letting game designers actually design the games that they

503
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:38,119
Speaker 1: want to and not not pushing something to go out early.

504
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:41,120
Speaker 1: Is we are living in the future, my friend. Any

505
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:45,720
Speaker 1: any time, any time you have ever had a an

506
00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:49,160
Speaker 1: experience of playing a game that obviously had not been finished,

507
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:52,119
Speaker 1: it is one of the most frustrating experiences, particularly if

508
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 1: you were going into it expecting a great game. So

509
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:57,679
Speaker 1: I agree, I think it's a better thing. So uh,

510
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:02,080
Speaker 1: I'm personally gonna I have not order it either. Uh disclosure.

511
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:05,440
Speaker 1: I expect that I will be buying one of these

512
00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:09,400
Speaker 1: consoles probably within the next twelve months. And I'm right

513
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:12,960
Speaker 1: now just based on features, not based on games. I

514
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 1: am leaning towards the Xbox Yeah. And here here's why.

515
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:19,360
Speaker 1: I think the PlayStation is going to have some amazing

516
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:21,960
Speaker 1: independent games on it, and I want to be able

517
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:24,560
Speaker 1: to play those, and that would be like if you're

518
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,439
Speaker 1: talking about just games, that lets me lean towards the

519
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:30,960
Speaker 1: PS four. But the Xbox One has some really cool

520
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 1: uh voice activation features in it and some Connect features

521
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 1: that originally I don't think the Connect was fully ready

522
00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 1: for prime time when it came out, But them the

523
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:43,920
Speaker 1: implementation I'm hearing from the Xbox One sounds much more

524
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 1: promising to me. It sounds completely creepy to me, but

525
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:49,439
Speaker 1: also very promising. I mean, I mean, I'm blown away

526
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:55,119
Speaker 1: by the capacity that they're talking about. A yeah, you

527
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 1: know what, that's enough talking about that. But anyway, according

528
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:02,200
Speaker 1: to this, you get a gumball that has melted into

529
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:05,439
Speaker 1: the shape of a squid. You get a lot of candy. Lauren,

530
00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:08,359
Speaker 1: you guess sweet tooth that's um I do, but I

531
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 1: that's it's someone trying to poison this podcast with my

532
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 1: sugar rash. I have no idea. I mean, it's you know,

533
00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:16,880
Speaker 1: I I can't make heads or tails out of any

534
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 1: of this, mostly because squid don't have tails. I wonder

535
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:23,399
Speaker 1: if this has to do with those teeth. Okay, So

536
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 1: my next prediction said that Intel will struggle due to

537
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 1: customers moving more towards mobile platforms. This is related to

538
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:33,800
Speaker 1: my first prediction. Obviously, UM and Until's certainly had kind

539
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:36,400
Speaker 1: of a rough year. They tried a lot of different things.

540
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 1: They actually created a web based television platform called on q,

541
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:42,760
Speaker 1: but on Que never really took off, an according to

542
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 1: c Net, Intel's looking to offload the product now trying

543
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:49,400
Speaker 1: to sell it off yeah. Um. They were also starting

544
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 1: to focus more on enterprise customers, meaning other companies, which,

545
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:56,240
Speaker 1: you know, similar to what IBM had done in the past,

546
00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:57,840
Speaker 1: where IBM was like, you know what, maybe we want

547
00:28:57,840 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 1: to get out of the consumer market and just market

548
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 1: to other companies as well, because those are the customers

549
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:06,960
Speaker 1: that tend to have a stable need for performance PCs.

550
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 1: So even if your consumers get a little flaky in

551
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 1: they're like, I think I just want to have something

552
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 1: I could play, you know, Candy Crush on that's the game, right, Yeah,

553
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 1: I keep getting a request for something called that I

554
00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 1: haven't played Canny Crush Slaga. I don't know anyway, Um,

555
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 1: Holly can talk to us about that. Not necessary for

556
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 1: you to have an Intel machine to play that game, apparently,

557
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:30,160
Speaker 1: uh no. Um. And And also, like like we said earlier,

558
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:34,600
Speaker 1: you know, PC performances generally dropping. Yeah, so until you know,

559
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:37,400
Speaker 1: that's their main market. They they've tried to get into

560
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:39,640
Speaker 1: the mobile market, but it hasn't been nearly as successful.

561
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 1: Some of their competitors. However, they have started to develop

562
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 1: some interesting chips that should work with Internet of things

563
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 1: style sensors. So it may be that we see until

564
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 1: bounce back in an emerging industry that is still you know,

565
00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:56,560
Speaker 1: just picking up speed. M'd be great to see. And yeah,

566
00:29:57,080 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 1: despite all of this, there's relatively even new was on

567
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:03,720
Speaker 1: the on the overall, Yeah, until Q three earnings in

568
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 1: were pretty much the same as it's Q three earnings

569
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:10,920
Speaker 1: in twelve, so it didn't lose ground, but it wasn't

570
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 1: gaining ground either. And you know, I don't know if

571
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:17,120
Speaker 1: any of you work for big companies, but usually the

572
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:20,320
Speaker 1: rule of thumb is that they want growth year over year.

573
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:25,000
Speaker 1: It's not just it's not just profit, it's growth, right

574
00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:27,480
Speaker 1: because profit is profit is number one. You want, you

575
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:29,600
Speaker 1: want to make more money than you spend, but you

576
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 1: want to make more and more money. Yes before yeah,

577
00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:35,280
Speaker 1: the previous year, like, yeah, we made a lot of money.

578
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 1: We're gonna have to figure out how we're going to

579
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 1: make more than that next year. And you know it's

580
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 1: I don't know, I find it exhausting. I'm so glad

581
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 1: I'm not one of those executives who has to make

582
00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 1: those kind of decisions. Yeah, so, so I think I

583
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,280
Speaker 1: think that that prediction was pretty accurate. Yeah yeah, according

584
00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:51,000
Speaker 1: to this, I get an animated gift of a squid juggling.

585
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:55,720
Speaker 1: That's pretty cute. Okay, alright, your turn. My next one

586
00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:59,360
Speaker 1: was going back to Apple. Um I I boldly stated

587
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:01,320
Speaker 1: that Apple was going to this would be the year

588
00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 1: that they would make a TV. This was the Crisp

589
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 1: Pallette suggestion. This was the Crisp Palette prediction because Chris.

590
00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:09,960
Speaker 1: If you guys are longtime listeners to tech stuff, you

591
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:12,440
Speaker 1: probably realize that Chris made this prediction I think in

592
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 1: two thousand eleven and two thousand twelves. So Lauren was

593
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 1: carrying on the text stuff tradition and rumors, you know,

594
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 1: rumors from from mac rumors dot com say that that

595
00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 1: we could we could totally expect one in yeah, the

596
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:30,920
Speaker 1: earliest sixteen. Um So, I think that this rumor tradition

597
00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 1: continues on. We'll find out if one of us predicts

598
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:38,400
Speaker 1: that will really be the year. Really, my only note

599
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 1: for this one is just f That's all I had

600
00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:45,280
Speaker 1: to say. Get an Apple that's got a little squid

601
00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:49,640
Speaker 1: in it. I don't want. That's squid can't live in apples.

602
00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:53,040
Speaker 1: I'm very concernous. It's because your prediction was so awful, Lauren,

603
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:57,160
Speaker 1: You've got a dead squid in an apple. Sorry, that's

604
00:31:57,200 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 1: the way it works, all right. So I have an

605
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:05,880
Speaker 1: electronic public sing will completely overtake traditional publishing in sales. Uh, Nope. Trends.

606
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:07,840
Speaker 1: Trends at the end of two thousand twelve made it

607
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:10,200
Speaker 1: look that way. But again, this is where that deceptive

608
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:13,719
Speaker 1: number comes in, right, where you have a relatively small

609
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:17,959
Speaker 1: number increasing, that means the percentage of increase is huge.

610
00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 1: But eventually those numbers get bigger and that percentage starts

611
00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:23,479
Speaker 1: to shrink because it starts to reflect that you know,

612
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 1: maybe in reality, this isn't This isn't growth industry, right.

613
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:31,000
Speaker 1: It is similar to tablets. It's they're kind of evening out. Yeah,

614
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 1: we started to see it. I mean, seriously, plateau it

615
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 1: started plateau ing big time in twelve, and really plateau

616
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 1: in That doesn't mean that there's not a lot of

617
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 1: of e publishing going on or electronic books sales. There are,

618
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 1: but it is not. It has not overtaken traditional publishing.

619
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 1: Um Amazon reports that sales of its e readers have

620
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 1: hit record numbers. That's not a big surprise, but traditional

621
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 1: books are still sold more than e books in the

622
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:01,840
Speaker 1: grand scheme of things. And according to some reports, a

623
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 1: couple of different sectors of publishing of physical books actually

624
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,600
Speaker 1: went up at a couple of points during the years. Yeah. Yeah,

625
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 1: so this one was a total mess on my part.

626
00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 1: And this one apparently I get a book about squids

627
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:16,120
Speaker 1: where every page that had the name words squid on

628
00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 1: it has been ripped out. There are there's a dedication

629
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:24,880
Speaker 1: page and a copyright page left. Okay, all right, Lauren,

630
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 1: your turn. My next prediction was that this would be

631
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 1: a record year for people going out and getting their

632
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:35,760
Speaker 1: their genes sequenced. Um and that there would also be

633
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:39,240
Speaker 1: a big move to digital health records UM and this

634
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:42,240
Speaker 1: interesting news on this one. All right, so yeah, this

635
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 1: this was so so basically I could not have predicted

636
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:48,480
Speaker 1: that here in the US anyway, that the whole Affordable

637
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:51,479
Speaker 1: Care Act could could have been as much of a

638
00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 1: mess as it really was caused, as much of a

639
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:57,680
Speaker 1: mess in the industry. Um. And And again I was

640
00:33:57,720 --> 00:34:02,720
Speaker 1: being pretty optimistic about stuff. You think that overall, you know,

641
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:06,240
Speaker 1: the trends are are looking good for both of those

642
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:09,480
Speaker 1: things right, but just this specifics are some rough parts,

643
00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:12,240
Speaker 1: not the year that they were really implemented to be fair,

644
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 1: uh twenty three and me which was a leading company

645
00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:18,759
Speaker 1: that this genetic sequencing here in the US, had more

646
00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:22,400
Speaker 1: than four hundred thousand customers, which shows that this was

647
00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 1: a record year. That's one of the things you said

648
00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:26,800
Speaker 1: it was gonna be a record year. That was true,

649
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:29,759
Speaker 1: But then the US Food and Drug Administration kind of

650
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:33,919
Speaker 1: uh put the brakes. And the thing is that there's

651
00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:36,319
Speaker 1: a lot of legislature that hasn't really caught up to

652
00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:39,359
Speaker 1: this technology yet. Because okay, so so the first human

653
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:42,960
Speaker 1: gene sequencing UM took like fifteen years and three billion

654
00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:45,239
Speaker 1: dollars UM. We're at a point right now where we

655
00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 1: can do it in a few days for three thousand UM,

656
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:50,160
Speaker 1: which is incredible and amazing, and there's a push to

657
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:53,720
Speaker 1: get it even lower and that's wonderful and magical. However,

658
00:34:54,040 --> 00:34:57,200
Speaker 1: legislature is still going like so, if you're recommending these

659
00:34:57,360 --> 00:35:01,120
Speaker 1: this genetic sequencing as medical advice, UM, that falls under

660
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:04,279
Speaker 1: our purview and we need to regulate that, and that

661
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:07,280
Speaker 1: means that every single gene you're testing has to be

662
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:10,839
Speaker 1: has to be approved through us, and there's an expensive

663
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:14,399
Speaker 1: process for that, which means that it turns any kind

664
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:19,840
Speaker 1: of consumer level genetic sequencing completely impractical. Right. And furthermore,

665
00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:24,120
Speaker 1: it's like we've talked about in our genetics episodes, genes

666
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 1: are tricky things. They do, they do more than one

667
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 1: thing at once, and it's really difficult to label one

668
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 1: in many cases as being like this gene causes that thing.

669
00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 1: And on top of that, the the FDA has a

670
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:41,239
Speaker 1: couple of of arguments that I think are pretty valuable,

671
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:43,320
Speaker 1: things like, you know, you don't want to give people

672
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:46,040
Speaker 1: a message that will end up having the mishandle their

673
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:51,360
Speaker 1: medication therefore suffer some sort of toxic effects because they

674
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:53,960
Speaker 1: and it may not even be the direct fault of

675
00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:57,680
Speaker 1: the genetic sequencing company. It may be that the consumer

676
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 1: is misinterpreting the results. The point that the FDA was

677
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:05,000
Speaker 1: making is that this is something that that a a

678
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:08,799
Speaker 1: medical professional needs to handle and be able to communicate

679
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:11,560
Speaker 1: to the person so that they can make use of

680
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:16,399
Speaker 1: that information. It's too much information without enough expertise. So

681
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:19,120
Speaker 1: but but still was a record year. It was just

682
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:22,239
Speaker 1: one of those things where the law began to try

683
00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:25,120
Speaker 1: and catch up to the technology. So I think he

684
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:27,400
Speaker 1: got I think you'd get at least a half point

685
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:29,839
Speaker 1: on that. And what what what does that equal out

686
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:34,320
Speaker 1: to in squid? Squid with five tentacles, Yes, squire with

687
00:36:34,360 --> 00:36:38,440
Speaker 1: five tentacles. We call him Lefty. Yeah, they're all the

688
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:40,960
Speaker 1: left tentacle. I don't know how that works personally, I

689
00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 1: don't get us. I mean whatever, I'm the same. You

690
00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:48,799
Speaker 1: can name him George. Alright. So my next one was

691
00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:51,279
Speaker 1: that Zinga, the Zinga Board of directors, would attempt to

692
00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 1: purchase the company back and turn it into a private corporation. Now,

693
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:57,600
Speaker 1: this was based on some rumors that were circulating at

694
00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 1: the end of two thousand twelve. Mark Pinkas, who was

695
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 1: the former CEO of Zinga, was rumored to be talking

696
00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 1: about it. He had hinted at the prospect of getting

697
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:10,400
Speaker 1: the board directors to buy up enough shares of Zinga

698
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:13,240
Speaker 1: to make it go back into being a private company

699
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:15,120
Speaker 1: and said that a lot of the problems of the

700
00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:19,759
Speaker 1: company were due to shareholder expectations and requirements, and that

701
00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:21,840
Speaker 1: if it were a private company could operate however it

702
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:25,160
Speaker 1: needed to in order to make to to do business.

703
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:28,240
Speaker 1: H Zinga, of course, is the game company that's behind

704
00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 1: a bunch of those social media games that were really

705
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 1: popular on things like Facebook, from things like World Words

706
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 1: with Friends to Farmville and all that kind of stuff.

707
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:43,200
Speaker 1: So Zinga UM did not try and purchase the the

708
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:45,480
Speaker 1: the shares back to become a private company. That did

709
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:50,440
Speaker 1: not happen. What did happen was that instead Mark Pinkas

710
00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:54,560
Speaker 1: essentially fired himself and then hired Don Matric as the

711
00:37:54,560 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 1: new CEO. If you're not familiar with Matric, he was

712
00:37:57,280 --> 00:38:01,560
Speaker 1: the former head of Microsoft's Xbox to In fact, news

713
00:38:01,600 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 1: broke today that one of Matrix uh moves in the

714
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:11,200
Speaker 1: Xbox division has been undone. He established a an Xbox

715
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:15,960
Speaker 1: division in London called Xbox Victoria, and that has just

716
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:19,560
Speaker 1: been shut down, so all the all the developers in

717
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:23,759
Speaker 1: that particular office are now looking for work. UM and

718
00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 1: what he did over at Zingo was basically clean house. Yeah,

719
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:29,880
Speaker 1: he fired a whole bunch of people, UH and started

720
00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:34,080
Speaker 1: to restructure the company. So it's remained publicly traded, but

721
00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:37,600
Speaker 1: it is a very different organization now. However, because I

722
00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:40,160
Speaker 1: said that as the Zinga board would attempt to purchase

723
00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:43,440
Speaker 1: the company back, technically my prediction was wrong, and UH

724
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:46,960
Speaker 1: I get an octopus wearing a squid costume. So there's

725
00:38:47,000 --> 00:38:50,759
Speaker 1: these two extremely fake tentacles hanging down from it. I

726
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:52,839
Speaker 1: don't know that sounds I would watch an Internet video

727
00:38:52,840 --> 00:38:56,759
Speaker 1: about that. An octopus posing as a squid. I bet

728
00:38:56,800 --> 00:38:59,759
Speaker 1: there's a whole cartoon series speaking if if not. I

729
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:02,400
Speaker 1: want one of you guys more than I can even express.

730
00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:05,120
Speaker 1: I might. I might really enjoy cephalopods, And I think

731
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 1: that someone should make that happen. Um. I think. I

732
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 1: think Erin's got a new job to do. Um. We

733
00:39:12,200 --> 00:39:15,239
Speaker 1: we love you, photoshoppers. My next prediction had to do

734
00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:18,799
Speaker 1: with the Internet. Uh, it was. It was a non prediction, really,

735
00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:23,359
Speaker 1: I said that nothing of note would happen with HTML five. Yeah.

736
00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:26,320
Speaker 1: HTML five, of course, is supposed to be the big

737
00:39:26,480 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 1: replacement for HTML four, which is what a lot of

738
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:31,799
Speaker 1: the webs based on a lot of sites have made

739
00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:34,680
Speaker 1: the move over to HTML five. But as it turns out,

740
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:37,239
Speaker 1: it's had some problems. Like it it just it's not

741
00:39:37,440 --> 00:39:40,960
Speaker 1: working quite to the level that we were expecting. Like

742
00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:43,239
Speaker 1: it was supposed to replace a lot of the need

743
00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:45,520
Speaker 1: for all those plug ins that h t m L

744
00:39:45,600 --> 00:39:49,040
Speaker 1: four requires if you want to have a rich web experience. Right, So,

745
00:39:49,120 --> 00:39:51,759
Speaker 1: like anything like a flash player, you have to have

746
00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:53,719
Speaker 1: Flash installed for you to be able to watch that.

747
00:39:54,120 --> 00:39:56,839
Speaker 1: And the idea is that with HTML five all those

748
00:39:56,960 --> 00:39:59,319
Speaker 1: kind of features would be natively supportive, I think, would

749
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:03,040
Speaker 1: be integrated to so you wouldn't have a single app crashing.

750
00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:05,479
Speaker 1: But as it turns out, just just the whole code

751
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:08,840
Speaker 1: is not really coming together. Um. And so you know,

752
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:11,960
Speaker 1: similar to what we were talking about with Windows eight.

753
00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:14,160
Speaker 1: You know, just people aren't willing to adopt something if

754
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:16,200
Speaker 1: they don't know it's going to work. Right. A lot

755
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:20,120
Speaker 1: of developers who are making apps do not have not

756
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:22,520
Speaker 1: been making apps for HTML five because they just felt

757
00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:25,080
Speaker 1: that it wasn't doing what they needed it to do,

758
00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:27,520
Speaker 1: Like the results they were getting were not satisfactory, So

759
00:40:27,560 --> 00:40:30,160
Speaker 1: they had to go back to developing apps for older

760
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:34,319
Speaker 1: legacy style platforms like Flash because if they tried at

761
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:36,279
Speaker 1: for HTML five, it just wasn't doing what they needed.

762
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:38,840
Speaker 1: It wasn't a smooth transition. Yeah. So I was on

763
00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:40,480
Speaker 1: the money for this one. Yeah. So you get a

764
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 1: squid smoothie, it's extra smooth. Oh it's not. It's not

765
00:40:44,920 --> 00:40:48,480
Speaker 1: made of squid. It was made by a squid. Oh yeah, well,

766
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:51,800
Speaker 1: that's great on this little uh that's a little card

767
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 1: that came with it. I think it's important to support

768
00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:59,960
Speaker 1: our squid employees. Yes, um, high ten. I guess because

769
00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:03,000
Speaker 1: they've they've got tent tentacles. I think two of them

770
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:08,400
Speaker 1: are technically arms. Are they have you armed your squid? Okay,

771
00:41:08,440 --> 00:41:10,680
Speaker 1: I'm moving on before I get shot by a squid.

772
00:41:11,120 --> 00:41:13,760
Speaker 1: I've got two more. That was the rat last of Lawrence.

773
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:15,640
Speaker 1: I think I think this next one, what we should

774
00:41:15,640 --> 00:41:17,719
Speaker 1: do is just come up with a specific number of

775
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 1: predictions will each make and that way it will even

776
00:41:19,480 --> 00:41:21,439
Speaker 1: out for next year. Because I've never done that, and

777
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:23,720
Speaker 1: you would think that after like five years of predictions,

778
00:41:23,719 --> 00:41:26,279
Speaker 1: I would have said, hey, let's each make five, and

779
00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:28,840
Speaker 1: you would think but anyway, And my next one is

780
00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:32,480
Speaker 1: that manufacturers will attempt to build and market devices specifically

781
00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:34,759
Speaker 1: to serve as a second screen. I'm right for the

782
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:38,719
Speaker 1: wrong reason I was when I said this. What I

783
00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:41,879
Speaker 1: was thinking was that a company would make something like

784
00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:45,880
Speaker 1: a mobile handheld device like a tablet or a smartphone

785
00:41:45,920 --> 00:41:49,160
Speaker 1: or something along those lines, and specifically say this is

786
00:41:49,200 --> 00:41:52,960
Speaker 1: so that you can see more information as you watch

787
00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:55,920
Speaker 1: stuff that's on your TV. So in other words, the

788
00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:58,880
Speaker 1: second screen part would literally be the second screen, right.

789
00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:01,279
Speaker 1: That would be the entire purpose empt the device, right.

790
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 1: And as it turns out, there are a lot of

791
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:05,840
Speaker 1: second screen devices that have entered the market, things like

792
00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:09,920
Speaker 1: Google Chrome Cast or the net Gear has the push

793
00:42:09,960 --> 00:42:12,439
Speaker 1: to TV set, and there are a lot of other

794
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:15,840
Speaker 1: ones too. They're designed to stream content from your computer

795
00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:18,239
Speaker 1: to the television, So you have a second screen in

796
00:42:18,239 --> 00:42:20,160
Speaker 1: the sense that the TV becomes your second screen, that

797
00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:23,680
Speaker 1: becomes your display, and then you can use your computer

798
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:26,279
Speaker 1: to do whatever else you want to do. But that's

799
00:42:26,320 --> 00:42:29,759
Speaker 1: not how I envisioned it. So it's interesting that what

800
00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:32,360
Speaker 1: I had predicted came to pass, but in a totally

801
00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:35,399
Speaker 1: different implementation than what I expected. And apparently I get

802
00:42:35,400 --> 00:42:41,719
Speaker 1: a I get an insight out squid. Oh man, oh

803
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:44,960
Speaker 1: that is all over that keyboard. Well, luckily I've already

804
00:42:44,960 --> 00:42:49,719
Speaker 1: scrolled down to the bottom here. Okay, I said, we'll

805
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:52,600
Speaker 1: see the peak and then decline of crowdfunding in two

806
00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:56,600
Speaker 1: thousand thirteen as people get burned out on it. Um.

807
00:42:56,640 --> 00:43:00,520
Speaker 1: Here's the thing, guys, Reliable sticks, statistics and funding just

808
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:06,080
Speaker 1: don't exist. I can't find a truly reliable, unbiased source

809
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:08,480
Speaker 1: every source I could find was one that was like

810
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:11,200
Speaker 1: this brought to you by crowdfunding, Like, wait a minute,

811
00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:15,080
Speaker 1: you you have a clear conflict of interest in this. However,

812
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:18,960
Speaker 1: just based on what I've personally observed, it does not

813
00:43:19,160 --> 00:43:21,480
Speaker 1: look like this is slowing down at all. No, No,

814
00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:24,960
Speaker 1: I think that. You know, of course, there's still some

815
00:43:25,239 --> 00:43:28,520
Speaker 1: projects that don't get funded, and I think that some

816
00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:32,480
Speaker 1: people are in fact getting getting burnt out on spending

817
00:43:32,680 --> 00:43:35,920
Speaker 1: all of the money on every single new project that

818
00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:38,239
Speaker 1: comes up. But I'd say that, if anything, there are

819
00:43:38,600 --> 00:43:42,640
Speaker 1: more more awesome projects out there than there were. And yeah,

820
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:45,440
Speaker 1: I mean for me, like all the evidence is anecdotal.

821
00:43:45,880 --> 00:43:51,080
Speaker 1: But that being said, I have certainly supported more campaigns

822
00:43:51,080 --> 00:43:53,760
Speaker 1: crowdfunding campaigns this year than I have ever done before.

823
00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:56,320
Speaker 1: I essentially about about once every couple of months have

824
00:43:56,400 --> 00:43:58,560
Speaker 1: to tell myself to get off of the internet before

825
00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:00,759
Speaker 1: I spend all of my money on all my money

826
00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:04,080
Speaker 1: on kickstarter art. Yeah. So apparently, according to since I

827
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:06,759
Speaker 1: got that one totally wrong, I don't get a squid,

828
00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:10,839
Speaker 1: I get a quid. So I get a squid without

829
00:44:10,840 --> 00:44:14,720
Speaker 1: the s which is one pound sterling, but I'm taxed

830
00:44:14,760 --> 00:44:17,879
Speaker 1: on it. Yeah, alright, Well, I guess I'm not as

831
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:20,319
Speaker 1: gross as the inside out thing. No, but I guess

832
00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:23,960
Speaker 1: I deserve being taxed for such a wrong prediction. Well,

833
00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:27,160
Speaker 1: there we go. That wraps up our predictions round up

834
00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:29,759
Speaker 1: and how things turned out. So I guess we're gonna

835
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:34,360
Speaker 1: have to somehow carry all these squid back to our desks.

836
00:44:34,719 --> 00:44:36,319
Speaker 1: Maybe we'll just leave them here for stuff to blow

837
00:44:36,400 --> 00:44:38,520
Speaker 1: your mind. They'll be coming in here before too long.

838
00:44:38,719 --> 00:44:42,000
Speaker 1: Squid party, squid party. Um yeah, I'm gonna take my

839
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:44,480
Speaker 1: quid though, I gotta have this English pound, all right.

840
00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:46,840
Speaker 1: So yeah, that wraps it up. I think it was

841
00:44:46,840 --> 00:44:48,880
Speaker 1: a kind of fun one. We're gonna try and see

842
00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:50,920
Speaker 1: what sort of crazy predictions will come up. I think

843
00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:53,960
Speaker 1: we will try and limit it to maybe five predictions

844
00:44:54,000 --> 00:44:56,239
Speaker 1: per person, with maybe a couple of extra just in

845
00:44:56,280 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 1: case one of us predicts the same thing as the

846
00:44:59,200 --> 00:45:02,560
Speaker 1: other one. So that way we've got some wiggle room,

847
00:45:03,000 --> 00:45:05,440
Speaker 1: but nothing on the lines of what we've done this time.

848
00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:07,759
Speaker 1: Because this is just ridiculous, people, I mean, I can

849
00:45:07,800 --> 00:45:10,520
Speaker 1: only be so wrong for so long. Yeah, and and

850
00:45:10,520 --> 00:45:12,759
Speaker 1: this is I mean, I mean, no matter what the

851
00:45:12,800 --> 00:45:15,920
Speaker 1: system is of ranking next year, I clearly have way

852
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:19,279
Speaker 1: too many squid at this point, well, I'm sure. I mean,

853
00:45:19,320 --> 00:45:23,560
Speaker 1: there there's one thing that's consistent with our predictions episode,

854
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:27,120
Speaker 1: which is that the scoring is completely inconsistent. So I

855
00:45:27,120 --> 00:45:29,960
Speaker 1: wouldn't worry too much because by next year I will

856
00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:33,000
Speaker 1: completely forgotten about the squid thing, so it'll be some

857
00:45:33,080 --> 00:45:36,799
Speaker 1: other ridiculous level of of of grading. So anyway, guys,

858
00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:39,560
Speaker 1: if you have any predictions for two thousand and fourteen,

859
00:45:39,680 --> 00:45:41,960
Speaker 1: Lauren and I will be making those very soon, so

860
00:45:42,000 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 1: you'll you'll hear that episode before the end of the

861
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:46,359
Speaker 1: year probably or if not at the end of the year,

862
00:45:46,520 --> 00:45:49,000
Speaker 1: at the very beginning of next year. Um, if you

863
00:45:49,040 --> 00:45:51,799
Speaker 1: have any predictions that you want to make, we can

864
00:45:51,840 --> 00:45:57,520
Speaker 1: even have a small section set aside for listener predictions. Alright, listeners,

865
00:45:57,520 --> 00:45:59,720
Speaker 1: if you have a prediction for two thousand fourteen, something

866
00:45:59,719 --> 00:46:02,120
Speaker 1: that you believe is going to happen in the year

867
00:46:02,239 --> 00:46:05,279
Speaker 1: and it's related to tech, let us know. It could

868
00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:08,880
Speaker 1: be a conservative guest, it can be a wild estimate.

869
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:11,800
Speaker 1: Let us know. Send us a message. Our email addresses

870
00:46:11,960 --> 00:46:14,879
Speaker 1: tech stuff at Discovery dot com, or if you want

871
00:46:14,880 --> 00:46:17,840
Speaker 1: to let us know on Facebook, Twitter, or Tumblr, you

872
00:46:17,840 --> 00:46:21,080
Speaker 1: can find us there. Our handle is tech Stuff HSW,

873
00:46:21,320 --> 00:46:23,560
Speaker 1: so put your prognosticator hats on and let us know.

874
00:46:23,640 --> 00:46:25,440
Speaker 1: And I predict that Lauren and I will talk to

875
00:46:25,440 --> 00:46:31,880
Speaker 1: you again really soon. For more on this and thousands

876
00:46:31,880 --> 00:46:34,279
Speaker 1: of other topics. Does it have stuff works dot com