1 00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:05,840 Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day. If Bloomberg 2 00:00:05,880 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 1: dot com, the radio plus mobile act and on your radio, 3 00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:13,080 Speaker 1: this is a Bloomberg Business flash and I'm parring moscown. 4 00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:15,520 Speaker 1: They said. Date's brought to you by Interactive Brokers and 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,400 Speaker 1: CIMI Group. If you're looking for global futures contracts at 6 00:00:18,440 --> 00:00:21,520 Speaker 1: low trading costs, look no further. Interactive Brokers as the 7 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:24,639 Speaker 1: industry leader. Learn more at Interactive Brokers dot com slash, 8 00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:28,560 Speaker 1: c m E Group US DOCK Index futures are higher. 9 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:31,200 Speaker 1: They did a trim a rally as European Central Bank 10 00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:34,680 Speaker 1: President Mario Draggy said he doesn't anticipate more rate cuts, 11 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 1: though risk to the Euro Area growth outlook remained to 12 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:40,360 Speaker 1: the downside. He we do check the markets every fifteen 13 00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 1: minutes throughout the trading day. On Bloomberg at SNP even 14 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:44,600 Speaker 1: the future is still up nine and a half points, 15 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 1: DOWI Mini futures up sixties seven and nas doctumni futures 16 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:50,279 Speaker 1: up twenty six. The acts in Germany's up one per 17 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:52,920 Speaker 1: set ten, your treasury down nine thirty seconds, the yield 18 00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:55,840 Speaker 1: one point nine zero per set, Nimax screwed oil down 19 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 1: to ten percent or nine cents to thirty eight twenty 20 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 1: A barrel Comax gold is up three town for sunder 21 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 1: three dollars seventy cents to twelve announced, and the euro 22 00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:06,679 Speaker 1: now at a dollar ten forty one, the yen one 23 00:01:06,680 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 1: thirteen point seven nine. That's a Bloomberg business flash, Tom 24 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:12,880 Speaker 1: and Mike Karen Moscow, thank you very much. Well, here's 25 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:15,400 Speaker 1: where we are. The European Central Bank today cutting all 26 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 1: three of its rates, the main refinance rate to zero, 27 00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 1: the deposit rate to negative forty basis points. They increased 28 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:25,160 Speaker 1: q E by twenty billion euros a month, and they 29 00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:29,160 Speaker 1: announced a new program of loans two banks, essentially letting 30 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 1: banks borrow money for free, or ECB may actually pay 31 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:35,400 Speaker 1: them to take money to try to lend it out. 32 00:01:35,720 --> 00:01:39,080 Speaker 1: Since we've been gone, Mario Joggy has been taking more questions. 33 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:44,399 Speaker 1: He says the ECB expects substantially easier financing conditions because 34 00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 1: of this. There are very strong synergies, Draggy says, between 35 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:52,560 Speaker 1: all parts of synergy package synergies, and interestingly, he says 36 00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 1: that there was no, uh, no real argument against taking 37 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 1: the actions. He notes that uh the voting rotation had 38 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 1: no impact on the discussions. YenS Widman from the hawkish 39 00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:09,400 Speaker 1: Bundesbank was not a voter this time, but Raggy says 40 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 1: the overwhelming majority were in favor of the decisions. Today's outcome, 41 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:18,600 Speaker 1: he says, discout doubts about their willingness to act. It 42 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 1: has been a most interesting day. Nice summary, Michael, Olivia 43 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 1: Blanchard with US and now Yacom Fells of Pimco, Yacom Fells. 44 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:29,359 Speaker 1: When you look at this historical moment, I go back 45 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:32,640 Speaker 1: to Olivia Blanchard and the courage he had to say 46 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 1: we must reflate and reflate now four percent was the 47 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:41,680 Speaker 1: operative number. We are miles from that. Is there still 48 00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:47,799 Speaker 1: an appropriate now or immediate future to reflating? Can Mario 49 00:02:47,919 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 1: Draggy affect what Olivia Blanchard tried to suggest four and 50 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 1: five years ago. Well, at least he's trying his best. Um. 51 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 1: I think, you know the power of monetary policy to 52 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:06,800 Speaker 1: reflate is obviously limited. They're all kinds of headwinds, falling 53 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 1: inflation expectations, a very difficult global environment. Uh. And I 54 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:16,680 Speaker 1: think what we need eventually is support from fiscal policy. 55 00:03:17,200 --> 00:03:19,800 Speaker 1: So I think Mario drug is doing the best he 56 00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 1: can and he made a big step today. But in 57 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:26,679 Speaker 1: the end, if you really want to see successful reflation 58 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 1: over the next few years, we need more support from 59 00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:33,280 Speaker 1: governments from fiscal policy. There are some encouraging signs on 60 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:36,640 Speaker 1: that front. Uh fiscal policy for the first time in 61 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:40,600 Speaker 1: many years, is now becoming supportive in the US, in 62 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 1: Japan and also in Europe. But I think more should 63 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:47,839 Speaker 1: be done. Well, all central bankers seem to feel that way, 64 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:51,000 Speaker 1: but we're not getting there. So I wonder Mario said 65 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:54,920 Speaker 1: today they can go lower if they need to, but 66 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 1: how much lower can they go? In other words, has 67 00:03:57,400 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 1: he's throwing the kitchen sink at it? Does he have 68 00:03:59,840 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 1: my more left? Well? I think central bankers are slightly 69 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:10,600 Speaker 1: moving away from the idea that they will push interest 70 00:04:10,720 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 1: rates ever more negative. I think the reaction the negative, 71 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:18,200 Speaker 1: the adverse reaction of bank stocks at equity markets and 72 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:21,279 Speaker 1: markets more broadly to the Bank of japan announcement of 73 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:24,680 Speaker 1: negative interest rates, I think it has led to some rethinking. 74 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:28,360 Speaker 1: So the focus, and we see this in today's decision. 75 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:31,960 Speaker 1: The focus is now again much more on credit easing, 76 00:04:32,400 --> 00:04:37,480 Speaker 1: supporting the banks and also importantly venturing into buying private 77 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:39,880 Speaker 1: sector assets. So this was a big step from the 78 00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:44,800 Speaker 1: ECB today announcing that they buy corporate bonds. Are they 79 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:49,159 Speaker 1: going to compete with Pimco, with Scott Mather's corporate desk 80 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:52,919 Speaker 1: to buy corporate paper in Europe? When you want to 81 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 1: buy a Siemens piece, Are you going to compete with Frankfurt? Well, 82 00:04:57,800 --> 00:05:00,679 Speaker 1: I think they will compete with private investor does yes. 83 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:04,400 Speaker 1: My expectation would be that they won't buy huge amounts. 84 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:08,080 Speaker 1: I think this is not so much about quantity. It's 85 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:11,240 Speaker 1: more about sending a signal that they are willing to 86 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 1: buy private sector assets. And I just view it as 87 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:18,719 Speaker 1: a first step if needed eventually, if if more is needed, 88 00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:21,160 Speaker 1: I think eventually the e CP could even venture into 89 00:05:21,200 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 1: buying equities, and so I just view this announcement of 90 00:05:24,520 --> 00:05:28,840 Speaker 1: buying corporate bonds as one step in that direction. You 91 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:31,920 Speaker 1: can do much bigger quantities on equities than you can 92 00:05:31,960 --> 00:05:36,720 Speaker 1: do on corporate bonds. Uh. The question raised about that though, 93 00:05:36,760 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 1: and tomorrow Dargues says there will be a committee that 94 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:43,160 Speaker 1: will decide which corporate bonds to buy. More details will 95 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 1: be announced later this afternoon in Frankfort. But is there 96 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:50,720 Speaker 1: a risk that credit allocation becomes the e c B 97 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 1: s JAB. Yeah, I think you can put it this way. 98 00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 1: I wouldn't. I wouldn't say it's a risk. I think 99 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:00,599 Speaker 1: if you go back in history and the old days, 100 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:04,359 Speaker 1: in the really old days, central banks were lending to 101 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 1: the private sector, they were discounting trade bills. Um. So 102 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:11,080 Speaker 1: this is just going back to the roots where the 103 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:15,040 Speaker 1: central banks also lent to the private sector. And part 104 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 1: of the reason for this is that the banks, for 105 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:21,240 Speaker 1: various reasons, are not really doing it. What will this 106 00:06:21,520 --> 00:06:26,359 Speaker 1: do to the currency? And I know it's called the 107 00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:31,279 Speaker 1: litmus paper of the system. Does this reaffirm not the 108 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:35,400 Speaker 1: drama of a currency war. Does it reaffirm stronger dollar, 109 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:40,240 Speaker 1: weaker everything else? I'm not so sure about this. I 110 00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:44,160 Speaker 1: think we have opened a new chapter. So this is 111 00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 1: not so much. Today's move was not so much about 112 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:50,040 Speaker 1: pushing the currency lower, and I think the FX market 113 00:06:50,160 --> 00:06:52,440 Speaker 1: got the message. We had to reverse it initially the 114 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:54,880 Speaker 1: euro weekend, but now it is stronger on the day, 115 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:57,919 Speaker 1: and I think this is because the market understands that 116 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:01,080 Speaker 1: the ECBs focus is now on addit easy, it is 117 00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:04,560 Speaker 1: on supporting the banks, it's on supporting the corporate sector, 118 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 1: the private sector, and so you could argue that this 119 00:07:07,640 --> 00:07:10,520 Speaker 1: is actually euro supportive. So so in a way, I 120 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:12,840 Speaker 1: think we're now in a new environment where it's no 121 00:07:12,920 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 1: longer about currency wars. This is much more about focusing 122 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:24,320 Speaker 1: on easing domestic monetary conditions. Com Pels from PIMCO, thank 123 00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 1: you for joining us today, on this day when the 124 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:29,840 Speaker 1: ECB has it's in the words of it. I didn't 125 00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:32,320 Speaker 1: say this words of many people throwing the kitchen sink 126 00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:37,680 Speaker 1: at the economy in Europetown. Is this fun? Oliva and Chard, 127 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 1: Brendan brown Yakham Fells. That's pretty good. Stay with U 128 00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:47,280 Speaker 1: Sporus surveillance. We're kind of it. Down to the opening bell, 129 00:07:47,320 --> 00:07:49,160 Speaker 1: brought you by the Jeep Grand Cherokee, the most awarded 130 00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:51,520 Speaker 1: suv ever. 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