WEBVTT - NYC Congestion Pricing, Stem Cell Therapy

0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:07.000
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

0:00:08.640 --> 0:00:12.680
<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg Business Week, Insight from the reporters and

0:00:12.800 --> 0:00:16.800
<v Speaker 2>editors that bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

0:00:17.000 --> 0:00:20.799
<v Speaker 2>global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

0:00:20.840 --> 0:00:25.760
<v Speaker 2>Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenovek on Bloomberg Radio.

0:00:26.480 --> 0:00:29.120
<v Speaker 3>Well, if you live in and around, or work in

0:00:29.160 --> 0:00:31.200
<v Speaker 3>and around New York City, you probably already know this.

0:00:31.240 --> 0:00:34.600
<v Speaker 3>New York City kicking off its first congestion pricing program

0:00:34.720 --> 0:00:36.880
<v Speaker 3>in the United States, part of an effort to reduce

0:00:36.880 --> 0:00:39.479
<v Speaker 3>the number of vehicles in the world's most traffic clogged

0:00:39.680 --> 0:00:43.680
<v Speaker 3>urban area while also raising money for transit infrastructure. General

0:00:43.720 --> 0:00:46.760
<v Speaker 3>Lieber is the chief executive officer of the Metropolitan Transportation

0:00:46.880 --> 0:00:50.640
<v Speaker 3>Authority are Authority, telling our Bloomberg Surveillance team of Tom

0:00:50.720 --> 0:00:53.800
<v Speaker 3>Keen and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio earlier this morning,

0:00:54.200 --> 0:00:57.160
<v Speaker 3>it's all about creating the twenty first century city. But

0:00:57.520 --> 0:00:59.920
<v Speaker 3>he also cautioned it's not going to happen overnight.

0:01:00.880 --> 0:01:02.360
<v Speaker 4>It's going to take a little while, so we're going

0:01:02.440 --> 0:01:04.800
<v Speaker 4>to be watching it very closely, day by day, week

0:01:04.800 --> 0:01:07.960
<v Speaker 4>by week. I don't expect to see some dramatic change

0:01:08.480 --> 0:01:10.640
<v Speaker 4>on the first or the second day. Over time, we're

0:01:10.680 --> 0:01:13.880
<v Speaker 4>expecting a ten to twenty percent reduction in traffic. That's

0:01:13.920 --> 0:01:16.080
<v Speaker 4>what we're shooting for. New York is becoming a twenty

0:01:16.080 --> 0:01:19.120
<v Speaker 4>first century city. We just did you know two train

0:01:19.240 --> 0:01:22.040
<v Speaker 4>terminals the last couple of years. La Guardie air a

0:01:22.120 --> 0:01:25.200
<v Speaker 4>total rebuild. It's number one in the country. JFK is

0:01:25.200 --> 0:01:28.120
<v Speaker 4>getting rebuilt. I know your Newark Airport is getting investment.

0:01:28.520 --> 0:01:30.840
<v Speaker 4>This is about being a twenty first century city where

0:01:30.840 --> 0:01:33.080
<v Speaker 4>we don't spend all our time stuck in traffic.

0:01:34.200 --> 0:01:35.200
<v Speaker 5>Well, there you have it. JOHNA.

0:01:35.240 --> 0:01:38.440
<v Speaker 6>Lieber, the chief executive Officer of the Metropolitan Transit Authority

0:01:38.480 --> 0:01:41.160
<v Speaker 6>with the Surveillance Team, earlier today on Bloomberg Radio, who

0:01:41.240 --> 0:01:44.199
<v Speaker 6>also said he anticipates a ten percent to twenty percent

0:01:44.280 --> 0:01:47.400
<v Speaker 6>reduction in New York City traffic over time. Thinking about

0:01:47.400 --> 0:01:50.240
<v Speaker 6>New York City congestion, pricing, and the broader politic, especially

0:01:50.320 --> 0:01:52.760
<v Speaker 6>the future of the Democratic Party, and putting it in

0:01:52.800 --> 0:01:55.440
<v Speaker 6>an opinion column in The New York Times out early

0:01:55.600 --> 0:01:59.480
<v Speaker 6>yesterday morning. Henry Gribbar, journalist and author of Paved Paradise,

0:01:59.520 --> 0:02:02.440
<v Speaker 6>How Parking explains the world hard over, He joins us

0:02:02.480 --> 0:02:05.840
<v Speaker 6>from Cambridge, Massachusetts, Henry. Good to have you back with

0:02:05.960 --> 0:02:10.560
<v Speaker 6>us talk about the relationship between congestion, pricing and democratic politics,

0:02:10.639 --> 0:02:13.560
<v Speaker 6>especially on a day where many Democrats are seeing the

0:02:13.560 --> 0:02:17.560
<v Speaker 6>certification of president like Donald Trump and thinking to themselves, Wow,

0:02:17.960 --> 0:02:20.080
<v Speaker 6>we really got to rethink how we handle ourselves over

0:02:20.080 --> 0:02:21.480
<v Speaker 6>the next few years and what the future of the

0:02:21.520 --> 0:02:22.160
<v Speaker 6>party looks like.

0:02:24.200 --> 0:02:26.840
<v Speaker 7>Right. Sure, Well, when you look at the results of

0:02:26.880 --> 0:02:28.760
<v Speaker 7>the election for November, you can see that some of

0:02:28.800 --> 0:02:32.240
<v Speaker 7>the places that move strongest towards the Republican Party were

0:02:32.240 --> 0:02:34.200
<v Speaker 7>the outer birds of New York City and the suburbs

0:02:34.240 --> 0:02:36.760
<v Speaker 7>of New York City. So this is kind of ground

0:02:36.840 --> 0:02:40.120
<v Speaker 7>zero for figuring out why some Democrats decided not to

0:02:40.200 --> 0:02:42.959
<v Speaker 7>vote or decided to vote for Donald Trump. And I

0:02:43.000 --> 0:02:44.880
<v Speaker 7>think one of the theories that's been in play here

0:02:45.080 --> 0:02:48.040
<v Speaker 7>is that Democrats simply haven't done a good job running

0:02:48.120 --> 0:02:51.080
<v Speaker 7>the places they control, which is to say, big blue

0:02:51.120 --> 0:02:54.919
<v Speaker 7>cities and blue states like New York, like Boston, like Chicago,

0:02:55.040 --> 0:02:58.639
<v Speaker 7>like Los Angeles, San Francisco. Right, And so in that sense,

0:02:59.280 --> 0:03:02.440
<v Speaker 7>this is a pole a pretty bold urban policy gambit

0:03:02.560 --> 0:03:05.840
<v Speaker 7>to show the Democrats have big ideas about how to

0:03:05.919 --> 0:03:07.840
<v Speaker 7>improve these places. And one of the things that struck

0:03:07.880 --> 0:03:11.000
<v Speaker 7>people in particular was the sense of disorder, and congestion

0:03:11.080 --> 0:03:13.520
<v Speaker 7>pricing is nothing if not an attempt to bring order

0:03:13.560 --> 0:03:15.040
<v Speaker 7>to the streets of New York City.

0:03:14.840 --> 0:03:17.440
<v Speaker 3>And we will see ultimately it does bring order to

0:03:17.520 --> 0:03:21.000
<v Speaker 3>New York City. Having said that, Henry, is congestion pricing,

0:03:21.040 --> 0:03:23.400
<v Speaker 3>in your view, a big step toward creating the twenty

0:03:23.400 --> 0:03:27.240
<v Speaker 3>first century city.

0:03:27.320 --> 0:03:29.200
<v Speaker 7>I think one of the things that has been apparent

0:03:29.200 --> 0:03:31.959
<v Speaker 7>in New York over the last five or ten years

0:03:32.080 --> 0:03:34.920
<v Speaker 7>is that the amount of traffic in the central Business

0:03:34.920 --> 0:03:37.720
<v Speaker 7>District is making it really hard for the city to

0:03:37.720 --> 0:03:41.200
<v Speaker 7>fulfill its basic functions, to say nothing of its reputation

0:03:41.240 --> 0:03:44.080
<v Speaker 7>as a global city. I mean, a building catches on fire,

0:03:44.200 --> 0:03:47.200
<v Speaker 7>somebody needs an ambulance, somebody needs to make a delivery.

0:03:47.440 --> 0:03:50.200
<v Speaker 7>Nobody knows how long those things are going to take

0:03:50.840 --> 0:03:53.120
<v Speaker 7>because the traffic has become so bad. So I think

0:03:53.600 --> 0:03:56.040
<v Speaker 7>when Lieber talks about the idea of a twenty first

0:03:56.040 --> 0:03:59.240
<v Speaker 7>century city, what he's saying is we need to have

0:03:59.520 --> 0:04:02.760
<v Speaker 7>a kind of liability about the ease of doing business

0:04:02.760 --> 0:04:05.080
<v Speaker 7>and going about basic tasks here. And that's what congestion

0:04:05.320 --> 0:04:08.200
<v Speaker 7>pricing is very much designed to do. In addition, of

0:04:08.200 --> 0:04:10.920
<v Speaker 7>course to raising money for the transit system.

0:04:10.960 --> 0:04:12.920
<v Speaker 3>All right, So going back to the kind of political

0:04:13.000 --> 0:04:14.880
<v Speaker 3>aspect of this or what this means for the future

0:04:14.920 --> 0:04:18.880
<v Speaker 3>of the Democratic Party, Henry, So, how does if New

0:04:18.960 --> 0:04:21.640
<v Speaker 3>York City officials and the city kind of get it

0:04:21.920 --> 0:04:24.560
<v Speaker 3>right in quotation marks if you will, how does it

0:04:24.600 --> 0:04:28.000
<v Speaker 3>really kind of help everyone along the high end of

0:04:28.040 --> 0:04:33.680
<v Speaker 3>the economy the lower end of the New York City economy.

0:04:33.680 --> 0:04:35.919
<v Speaker 7>Sure well, I think the goals of congestion pricing are

0:04:35.960 --> 0:04:39.599
<v Speaker 7>pretty clear about that that there's going to be cleaner air,

0:04:39.880 --> 0:04:41.719
<v Speaker 7>there's going to be faster commute, it's going to be

0:04:41.720 --> 0:04:44.360
<v Speaker 7>easier to do business, and there's going to be more

0:04:44.360 --> 0:04:46.559
<v Speaker 7>money for the mass transit system that of course moves

0:04:46.600 --> 0:04:49.200
<v Speaker 7>the vast majority of people in and out of Manhattan

0:04:49.240 --> 0:04:51.360
<v Speaker 7>every day. The number of people drive into Manhattan is

0:04:51.400 --> 0:04:53.760
<v Speaker 7>a small fraction of that. But I think the question

0:04:53.800 --> 0:04:57.680
<v Speaker 7>about how to ensure its popularity among the constituents in

0:04:57.720 --> 0:04:59.520
<v Speaker 7>New York City and especially in the suburbs of New

0:04:59.600 --> 0:05:02.480
<v Speaker 7>York City, that's the difficult question for the Governor of

0:05:02.520 --> 0:05:04.880
<v Speaker 7>New York at the local right. Because she's up for

0:05:04.960 --> 0:05:09.040
<v Speaker 7>reelection next year, this has become a subject of intense

0:05:09.080 --> 0:05:13.920
<v Speaker 7>political debate since she decided to you know, open up

0:05:13.960 --> 0:05:16.679
<v Speaker 7>the open up the box, and tinker with the pricing,

0:05:16.760 --> 0:05:19.520
<v Speaker 7>tinker with the implementation date. And so I think what

0:05:19.560 --> 0:05:21.039
<v Speaker 7>she needs to do is she needs to show that

0:05:21.120 --> 0:05:24.320
<v Speaker 7>this works. And the challenge is blue cities, right, we

0:05:24.400 --> 0:05:26.880
<v Speaker 7>know this. They move slowly and they build things at

0:05:26.920 --> 0:05:29.359
<v Speaker 7>high cost. And so when you implement a program like this,

0:05:29.600 --> 0:05:32.160
<v Speaker 7>people expect to see results in exchange for the money

0:05:32.200 --> 0:05:34.520
<v Speaker 7>that's being taken at those tolls. And the challenge is,

0:05:34.880 --> 0:05:36.800
<v Speaker 7>how can we come up with something in New York

0:05:37.000 --> 0:05:40.840
<v Speaker 7>to show results from congestion pricing really quickly? Because if

0:05:40.839 --> 0:05:42.800
<v Speaker 7>the streets are you know, the traffic is down by

0:05:42.800 --> 0:05:45.680
<v Speaker 7>five or six percent, that's not necessarily something that people

0:05:45.720 --> 0:05:47.440
<v Speaker 7>are going to be able to point their finger at.

0:05:47.480 --> 0:05:49.720
<v Speaker 7>I mean, how do you know, how do you even

0:05:50.200 --> 0:05:53.280
<v Speaker 7>register that kind of decline in traffic without having some

0:05:53.360 --> 0:05:55.640
<v Speaker 7>kind of infrastructural improvement to show for it. And I

0:05:55.640 --> 0:05:57.279
<v Speaker 7>think that's what the city needs to accomplish.

0:05:57.320 --> 0:05:59.760
<v Speaker 6>Now, will she be given the chance to actually show

0:06:00.120 --> 0:06:03.520
<v Speaker 6>the improvement or any improvement, given that Donald Trump has

0:06:03.560 --> 0:06:06.000
<v Speaker 6>opposed it and has vowed to get rid of it.

0:06:06.080 --> 0:06:08.200
<v Speaker 6>This was put in a place before he takes office,

0:06:08.200 --> 0:06:09.599
<v Speaker 6>Does he have the power to get rid of it.

0:06:11.480 --> 0:06:13.400
<v Speaker 7>I don't think he does have the power to get

0:06:13.480 --> 0:06:15.800
<v Speaker 7>rid of it overnight. I mean, the federal role in

0:06:15.839 --> 0:06:19.359
<v Speaker 7>this was certifying the environmental review, and that part is done,

0:06:19.440 --> 0:06:22.000
<v Speaker 7>So I'm not sure that the federal government can go

0:06:22.040 --> 0:06:25.120
<v Speaker 7>in and rescind the approval that they've already given for

0:06:25.240 --> 0:06:27.680
<v Speaker 7>the program to go forward. Of course, there are several

0:06:27.800 --> 0:06:32.680
<v Speaker 7>lawsuits pending, so there's a lot of uncertainty about this proposal.

0:06:32.680 --> 0:06:34.799
<v Speaker 7>But I would just say as far as it's supporters

0:06:34.839 --> 0:06:38.400
<v Speaker 7>or concerned, they have somewhat rested on the assumption that

0:06:38.640 --> 0:06:41.600
<v Speaker 7>congestion pricing will be popular because it has been popular

0:06:41.680 --> 0:06:44.560
<v Speaker 7>in other places that have implemented it after time, Right,

0:06:44.800 --> 0:06:49.559
<v Speaker 7>And that depends on showing visible improvement, on making real

0:06:49.680 --> 0:06:52.839
<v Speaker 7>the infrastructure that people expect to use and receive in

0:06:52.880 --> 0:06:55.400
<v Speaker 7>exchange for that money that's being taken. And they can

0:06:55.440 --> 0:06:57.400
<v Speaker 7>do that right, and they can do that overnight by

0:06:57.440 --> 0:07:02.680
<v Speaker 7>creating bus lanes, pedestrians spaded actually emergency vehicle lanes, right, Like,

0:07:02.760 --> 0:07:06.440
<v Speaker 7>make permanent the improvement that you see before the sticker

0:07:06.480 --> 0:07:09.720
<v Speaker 7>shock fades and drivers return and realize that in fact,

0:07:10.440 --> 0:07:11.920
<v Speaker 7>if a lot faster to drive Manhattan.

0:07:11.960 --> 0:07:14.920
<v Speaker 3>Henry, last question, just just to kind of the payoff

0:07:14.960 --> 0:07:17.960
<v Speaker 3>of your op ed in the New York Times. You

0:07:18.040 --> 0:07:21.280
<v Speaker 3>say that people support the policies and the politicians that

0:07:21.320 --> 0:07:24.440
<v Speaker 3>they get something out of this concept of deliverism.

0:07:24.520 --> 0:07:24.680
<v Speaker 4>Right.

0:07:24.720 --> 0:07:27.760
<v Speaker 3>People, if they feel like they're getting something out of it,

0:07:27.880 --> 0:07:31.040
<v Speaker 3>they're going to be supportive, and that's what shows political

0:07:31.120 --> 0:07:33.040
<v Speaker 3>change or political sway, and just got about a.

0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:37.679
<v Speaker 7>Minute here, Yeah, that's right, And I think the premise

0:07:37.720 --> 0:07:39.880
<v Speaker 7>of this, right is that these tools are being done

0:07:39.920 --> 0:07:42.960
<v Speaker 7>in exchange for funding mass transit in around New York City.

0:07:43.000 --> 0:07:45.960
<v Speaker 7>And the MTA has a list of improvements such as

0:07:46.360 --> 0:07:50.120
<v Speaker 7>elevators to make subway stations accessible for people with strollers

0:07:50.120 --> 0:07:52.840
<v Speaker 7>and wheelchairs, et cetera. But that stuff takes time, right,

0:07:52.880 --> 0:07:54.920
<v Speaker 7>and it costs way more money than it should, as

0:07:54.920 --> 0:07:58.200
<v Speaker 7>we know, and so reforming the construction process would help.

0:07:58.480 --> 0:08:01.440
<v Speaker 7>But I think in the meantime, the low hanging fruit

0:08:01.480 --> 0:08:05.679
<v Speaker 7>here is to create improvements for the vast majority of

0:08:05.800 --> 0:08:08.560
<v Speaker 7>the people who travel on the surface streets, which is

0:08:08.600 --> 0:08:10.960
<v Speaker 7>the people who travel by bus, right, And that's that's

0:08:11.040 --> 0:08:14.120
<v Speaker 7>sort of the opportunity that they have to make these

0:08:14.160 --> 0:08:18.600
<v Speaker 7>improvements visible immediately before the midterm elections come around, and

0:08:18.640 --> 0:08:21.240
<v Speaker 7>this becomes the subject of every gubernatorial debate.

0:08:21.280 --> 0:08:24.000
<v Speaker 3>Did you say circus streets, surface streets a surface, Okay,

0:08:24.000 --> 0:08:27.640
<v Speaker 3>because sometimes I feel like a circus and that kind

0:08:27.680 --> 0:08:29.960
<v Speaker 3>of I could I could jump on that one as well. Hey, Henry,

0:08:30.080 --> 0:08:33.480
<v Speaker 3>great timing, and really appreciate you coming on and spending

0:08:33.520 --> 0:08:37.400
<v Speaker 3>your view. Henry Goobar, journalist and author Paid Paradise, How

0:08:37.440 --> 0:08:40.200
<v Speaker 3>parking explains the world hard over.

0:08:40.400 --> 0:08:44.200
<v Speaker 6>So what are you getting a lot of texts about

0:08:44.200 --> 0:08:46.920
<v Speaker 6>people wondering about congestion pricing. I'm getting all these texts like, hey,

0:08:46.960 --> 0:08:48.400
<v Speaker 6>can you see a difference? Can you see a difference?

0:08:48.800 --> 0:08:49.480
<v Speaker 6>I'm inside.

0:08:49.720 --> 0:08:51.720
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I don't know, not yet, I don't know.

0:08:52.600 --> 0:08:56.280
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:08:56.360 --> 0:08:59.360
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from two to five these during listen

0:08:59.400 --> 0:09:03.000
<v Speaker 1>on Apple Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,

0:09:03.160 --> 0:09:06.000
<v Speaker 1>or watch us live on YouTube.

0:09:06.520 --> 0:09:08.559
<v Speaker 6>Well, the company closed out last year with a stock

0:09:08.600 --> 0:09:11.240
<v Speaker 6>price increase of eight hundred percent. No, we are not

0:09:11.320 --> 0:09:15.680
<v Speaker 6>talking about any Ai Darling here. It's a biomedical services company,

0:09:15.720 --> 0:09:20.400
<v Speaker 6>miso Blast, which develops drugs for cardiovascular disease on cology, hematology,

0:09:20.440 --> 0:09:22.720
<v Speaker 6>and more. The company based in Australia, but it's got

0:09:22.720 --> 0:09:25.400
<v Speaker 6>a market cap of about two point two billion dollars.

0:09:25.800 --> 0:09:27.880
<v Speaker 6>Shares of the company's ADRs, Carol that trade in the

0:09:27.920 --> 0:09:30.200
<v Speaker 6>US are aut more than fifty percent since mid December

0:09:30.679 --> 0:09:34.760
<v Speaker 6>after the company's Ryan sil got FDA OK for pediatric

0:09:34.800 --> 0:09:35.760
<v Speaker 6>graft versus host.

0:09:35.840 --> 0:09:39.080
<v Speaker 3>It's a big development. Doctor Sylvie Etsci is chief executive

0:09:39.080 --> 0:09:41.840
<v Speaker 3>officer and managing director at Misoblast and he joins us

0:09:41.840 --> 0:09:44.520
<v Speaker 3>in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. So nice to have

0:09:44.600 --> 0:09:47.520
<v Speaker 3>you here. Welcome, Welcome. You founded the company back in

0:09:47.520 --> 0:09:50.200
<v Speaker 3>two thousand and four, so over twenty years ago. Tell

0:09:50.280 --> 0:09:52.360
<v Speaker 3>us a little bit about this journey and where we

0:09:52.400 --> 0:09:54.640
<v Speaker 3>are today and how significant this development is for you.

0:09:55.360 --> 0:09:57.240
<v Speaker 5>Thanks for having me. Look.

0:09:57.800 --> 0:10:01.880
<v Speaker 8>Royonsal is the first ever FDA approved adult cell therapy

0:10:01.880 --> 0:10:04.800
<v Speaker 8>regenera of medicine cell therapy in the United States. It

0:10:04.840 --> 0:10:06.920
<v Speaker 8>has taken us twenty years to get to this point,

0:10:07.120 --> 0:10:10.200
<v Speaker 8>but that's just how long it takes to develop and

0:10:10.280 --> 0:10:14.240
<v Speaker 8>commercialize a brand new medicines in a new class of therapies.

0:10:14.400 --> 0:10:17.200
<v Speaker 8>It's the first adult stem cell product off the shelf.

0:10:18.320 --> 0:10:22.480
<v Speaker 8>It's been approved for children with a devastating complication called

0:10:22.520 --> 0:10:26.040
<v Speaker 8>Graphs host disease, which is a complication that occurs about

0:10:26.040 --> 0:10:29.160
<v Speaker 8>fifty percent of children who have a boma transplant after

0:10:29.200 --> 0:10:33.080
<v Speaker 8>they've been cured of their leukemia, and as many as

0:10:33.080 --> 0:10:36.240
<v Speaker 8>seventy to ninety percent of children die from this disease.

0:10:36.240 --> 0:10:39.480
<v Speaker 8>There are no other approved therapies, and in our face retrial,

0:10:39.960 --> 0:10:44.120
<v Speaker 8>we showed that we had seventy percent achieved a response

0:10:44.200 --> 0:10:47.880
<v Speaker 8>rate as early as day twenty eight and overall survival

0:10:49.520 --> 0:10:52.800
<v Speaker 8>over a five year period seen in fifty percent of children,

0:10:53.080 --> 0:10:55.719
<v Speaker 8>which is a remarkable outcome, meaning that about.

0:10:55.440 --> 0:10:57.360
<v Speaker 5>Fifty percent of children are effectively cured.

0:10:57.480 --> 0:11:01.840
<v Speaker 3>Wow, you know this is going to say so off

0:11:01.880 --> 0:11:05.160
<v Speaker 3>taste a little bit because when you talk about market

0:11:05.480 --> 0:11:08.160
<v Speaker 3>size of a potential drug or development, if you have

0:11:08.200 --> 0:11:10.800
<v Speaker 3>a child who has this, having one as a market

0:11:10.840 --> 0:11:13.600
<v Speaker 3>size is enough right to have a development like this

0:11:13.640 --> 0:11:16.760
<v Speaker 3>because it's a game changer potentially. But having said that,

0:11:16.840 --> 0:11:20.680
<v Speaker 3>you know you are a publicly held company, you're a

0:11:20.720 --> 0:11:25.520
<v Speaker 3>small cap company or a smaller market cap company, and

0:11:25.559 --> 0:11:27.480
<v Speaker 3>I do wonder about the run up what is the

0:11:27.480 --> 0:11:30.160
<v Speaker 3>potential market size for a drug, this particular drug.

0:11:30.679 --> 0:11:33.840
<v Speaker 8>So this is the first indication for this particular drug.

0:11:34.600 --> 0:11:37.840
<v Speaker 8>It has many applications and we will be developing it

0:11:37.960 --> 0:11:43.760
<v Speaker 8>for other adult indications. Fundamentally, it addresses major inflammatory.

0:11:43.120 --> 0:11:45.800
<v Speaker 3>Diseases, which is so many diseases.

0:11:45.480 --> 0:11:50.000
<v Speaker 8>Many diseases right, inflammatory lung disease, inflammatory vowel disease like chrohns,

0:11:50.040 --> 0:11:51.000
<v Speaker 8>and ulstrip of colitis.

0:11:51.920 --> 0:11:52.880
<v Speaker 5>And that's adults.

0:11:52.920 --> 0:11:55.920
<v Speaker 8>There are many pediatric inflammatory diseases that are not well

0:11:56.160 --> 0:11:59.520
<v Speaker 8>addressed either. So this is the first of its kind.

0:12:00.240 --> 0:12:04.839
<v Speaker 8>It's taken a number of years. We've now demonstrated that

0:12:05.400 --> 0:12:07.679
<v Speaker 8>we understand what the FDA is looking for in terms

0:12:07.679 --> 0:12:12.559
<v Speaker 8>of regulatory milestones, in terms of manufacturing, in terms of consistency,

0:12:13.280 --> 0:12:15.880
<v Speaker 8>in terms of reproducibility, so that we can now show

0:12:15.920 --> 0:12:18.719
<v Speaker 8>that every vial that goes out is the same as

0:12:18.720 --> 0:12:21.480
<v Speaker 8>the one before. And so we have a product that

0:12:21.520 --> 0:12:25.000
<v Speaker 8>we can show that it's effective and it's safe, and

0:12:25.040 --> 0:12:27.800
<v Speaker 8>it's reproducible, and I think that has a fundamental value

0:12:27.800 --> 0:12:30.600
<v Speaker 8>proposition and that's why we're the first to have been approved.

0:12:30.679 --> 0:12:33.040
<v Speaker 6>So how does it work? What were you able to find?

0:12:33.080 --> 0:12:36.839
<v Speaker 6>What did you and the team discover that makes this work.

0:12:37.200 --> 0:12:43.319
<v Speaker 8>So inflammation is caused by many path pathways, of the

0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:48.559
<v Speaker 8>immune system, and traditional medicines small molecules and monoclonal antibodies

0:12:48.800 --> 0:12:52.600
<v Speaker 8>target individual pathways, and that's why they're not really very

0:12:52.679 --> 0:12:57.920
<v Speaker 8>effective at turning off severe inflammation. And COVID Odds, for example,

0:12:58.040 --> 0:13:04.360
<v Speaker 8>was an example of severe inflammametry cytokine storm. And what

0:13:04.400 --> 0:13:07.480
<v Speaker 8>we've shown is that our cells, which are living packages

0:13:07.559 --> 0:13:14.240
<v Speaker 8>of multiple factors that orchestrate an anti inflammatory response, are

0:13:14.240 --> 0:13:18.120
<v Speaker 8>able to turn off a multi pronged immune response in

0:13:18.160 --> 0:13:20.760
<v Speaker 8>a way that small molecules cannot. And that's why we

0:13:21.120 --> 0:13:25.000
<v Speaker 8>achieved such a significant outcome in these children who otherwise have.

0:13:24.960 --> 0:13:26.120
<v Speaker 5>A fatal disorder.

0:13:27.000 --> 0:13:30.200
<v Speaker 8>But that is the mechanism by which these cells generally

0:13:30.559 --> 0:13:32.200
<v Speaker 8>will act in these other diseases.

0:13:32.240 --> 0:13:35.600
<v Speaker 5>So it's a tip of the iceberg for us.

0:13:36.320 --> 0:13:39.719
<v Speaker 8>This product is of course it's life saving, but it's

0:13:39.760 --> 0:13:43.839
<v Speaker 8>also a has a halo effect because it demonstrates that

0:13:43.920 --> 0:13:47.400
<v Speaker 8>the FDA is working with us, understands that we understand

0:13:47.440 --> 0:13:50.800
<v Speaker 8>the mechanism and that we can rise to a threshold

0:13:51.640 --> 0:13:55.000
<v Speaker 8>as a benchmark if you like, for how cell therapies

0:13:55.040 --> 0:13:59.560
<v Speaker 8>need to be developed, manufactured, and ultimately brought to the market.

0:14:00.000 --> 0:14:03.120
<v Speaker 8>So the market opportunities are very large you mentioned earlier

0:14:03.240 --> 0:14:05.200
<v Speaker 8>that so easily.

0:14:05.000 --> 0:14:07.000
<v Speaker 3>You are assuming or guessing that it's going to be

0:14:07.000 --> 0:14:08.439
<v Speaker 3>a billion dollar plus drug.

0:14:08.520 --> 0:14:12.120
<v Speaker 5>For this indication. Yes, definitely, just for this indication, just

0:14:12.160 --> 0:14:12.840
<v Speaker 5>for this indication.

0:14:13.000 --> 0:14:17.200
<v Speaker 8>But we have Phase three assets now that either have

0:14:17.320 --> 0:14:21.160
<v Speaker 8>completed or incompletion for kativascuar disease and inflammatory back pain,

0:14:21.440 --> 0:14:23.520
<v Speaker 8>and those have multi billion dollar potential.

0:14:23.720 --> 0:14:26.240
<v Speaker 3>It's interesting because I actually have a sister who's been involved.

0:14:26.320 --> 0:14:28.400
<v Speaker 3>She's a nurse and she's an engineer, and she's been

0:14:28.440 --> 0:14:31.000
<v Speaker 3>involved in the world of cancer for a long time,

0:14:31.040 --> 0:14:33.880
<v Speaker 3>and increasingly the conversations I have with her is, you know,

0:14:33.920 --> 0:14:38.200
<v Speaker 3>how we are finding out that inflammation causes so much,

0:14:38.200 --> 0:14:41.640
<v Speaker 3>whether it's cancer or otherwise, right, so much that ails us.

0:14:41.880 --> 0:14:44.360
<v Speaker 3>Having said that, I'm curious when you're dealing with stem cells,

0:14:45.280 --> 0:14:48.240
<v Speaker 3>any boddy stem cells are used to create this, like,

0:14:48.320 --> 0:14:50.440
<v Speaker 3>how is it actually made? And I'm just curious, does

0:14:50.480 --> 0:14:53.680
<v Speaker 3>each drug have to be very specific to the individual

0:14:53.760 --> 0:14:55.040
<v Speaker 3>using their own stem cells?

0:14:55.120 --> 0:14:58.000
<v Speaker 8>This is a very important question that you're wise now. Actually,

0:14:58.040 --> 0:14:59.920
<v Speaker 8>these are unique type of cells they called the miss

0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:03.000
<v Speaker 8>ankam or stromal cells that have a unique property that

0:15:03.000 --> 0:15:08.480
<v Speaker 8>they're not recognized as foreign when they're treated from one

0:15:08.480 --> 0:15:11.720
<v Speaker 8>individual to another, and they have the other very important

0:15:11.800 --> 0:15:15.240
<v Speaker 8>characteristics that can be expanded in very large numbers through

0:15:15.280 --> 0:15:18.640
<v Speaker 8>the culture manufacturing process. So we start with a tiny

0:15:18.720 --> 0:15:22.800
<v Speaker 8>number of very highly purified concentrated cells from a given

0:15:22.880 --> 0:15:29.000
<v Speaker 8>donor an FDA approved donor screening program. Would that be

0:15:29.040 --> 0:15:31.640
<v Speaker 8>an embryo, No, no, no, these are all adults out.

0:15:31.920 --> 0:15:34.880
<v Speaker 8>This is from young healthy, eighteen to twenty four year

0:15:34.880 --> 0:15:38.600
<v Speaker 8>old adults screened. We take a little bit of their

0:15:38.600 --> 0:15:42.840
<v Speaker 8>bone marrow and isolate these cells, purify them, and then

0:15:42.920 --> 0:15:47.480
<v Speaker 8>under GMP good manufacturing Practice facilities, we manufacture them. We

0:15:47.520 --> 0:15:51.840
<v Speaker 8>scale them up, and we can we can make thousands

0:15:51.880 --> 0:15:56.720
<v Speaker 8>of therapeutic doses from one donation. They're frozen, their cry preserved,

0:15:57.520 --> 0:16:01.320
<v Speaker 8>and as through a supply chain, we we ship them

0:16:01.360 --> 0:16:05.840
<v Speaker 8>from the manufacturing site to to a distributor that that

0:16:06.000 --> 0:16:09.560
<v Speaker 8>warehouses them effectively at at minus one hundred and forty

0:16:09.560 --> 0:16:13.520
<v Speaker 8>degrees and they shipped to the hospital and the rejection

0:16:13.800 --> 0:16:17.120
<v Speaker 8>there's no there's no rejection is there's there's minimal side

0:16:17.120 --> 0:16:22.640
<v Speaker 8>effects if any, very safe, very effective, and they they're

0:16:22.920 --> 0:16:27.480
<v Speaker 8>an industrial way of making therapeutic stem cells in a

0:16:27.560 --> 0:16:30.280
<v Speaker 8>vial where every vial is exactly the same as the

0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:32.440
<v Speaker 8>vial before, and we can we can show it's the same,

0:16:32.480 --> 0:16:35.880
<v Speaker 8>it's potent. We have potency essays that that allow us

0:16:35.880 --> 0:16:40.080
<v Speaker 8>to quality control every every vial that goes out the door.

0:16:40.120 --> 0:16:43.800
<v Speaker 5>How do you find the donors, young healthy volunteers. We

0:16:43.880 --> 0:16:47.720
<v Speaker 5>screen them for any any potential Is there.

0:16:47.640 --> 0:16:51.320
<v Speaker 6>Is there any sort of when you're doing this for

0:16:51.480 --> 0:16:54.520
<v Speaker 6>a for profit company, Is there any sort of compensation

0:16:54.600 --> 0:16:56.360
<v Speaker 6>that they get or is that not allowed?

0:16:56.800 --> 0:16:59.080
<v Speaker 8>No, it is allowed. It's totally allowed, and they do

0:16:59.160 --> 0:17:04.600
<v Speaker 8>get compensations. They're fairly compensated, no different than many other

0:17:04.640 --> 0:17:09.600
<v Speaker 8>blood products that are also donated, plasma derived products, et cetera.

0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:11.120
<v Speaker 3>What is this drove cast.

0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:14.199
<v Speaker 8>Well, you know, we only got approval a couple of

0:17:14.200 --> 0:17:16.159
<v Speaker 8>weeks ago, so we're right in the process of working

0:17:16.200 --> 0:17:16.880
<v Speaker 8>with all the rest.

0:17:18.080 --> 0:17:19.320
<v Speaker 3>I'm sure you have looked at this.

0:17:19.480 --> 0:17:19.720
<v Speaker 5>Yeah.

0:17:19.760 --> 0:17:21.600
<v Speaker 8>Look, the way to look at this is there are

0:17:21.600 --> 0:17:23.880
<v Speaker 8>a number of gene therapies that have recently been approved.

0:17:24.640 --> 0:17:29.040
<v Speaker 8>Those gene therapies give you at best fifty percent cure rates.

0:17:29.680 --> 0:17:32.960
<v Speaker 8>We've now done five years survival studies and the children

0:17:33.000 --> 0:17:34.640
<v Speaker 8>from our face retroth then we get about a fifty

0:17:34.680 --> 0:17:39.280
<v Speaker 8>percent complete response and survival out to five years, which

0:17:39.320 --> 0:17:42.080
<v Speaker 8>effectively means currerates. So I would say that we're in

0:17:42.119 --> 0:17:45.080
<v Speaker 8>the same sort of ballpark as the gene therapy.

0:17:44.960 --> 0:17:46.880
<v Speaker 3>Which is why this is no judgment.

0:17:47.400 --> 0:17:48.040
<v Speaker 5>We have no idea.

0:17:49.040 --> 0:17:50.520
<v Speaker 3>It's liked to understand.

0:17:50.760 --> 0:17:53.800
<v Speaker 8>I'll look at this in a different way. We save

0:17:53.960 --> 0:17:58.960
<v Speaker 8>hospitals about a million dollars in effectiveness of what they

0:17:58.960 --> 0:18:01.080
<v Speaker 8>have to spend on patients in the intensive care unit.

0:18:01.119 --> 0:18:05.200
<v Speaker 8>And that's, you know, putting it in a very calculated way.

0:18:05.320 --> 0:18:07.960
<v Speaker 8>It's separately from the fact that we're saving children's lives.

0:18:08.240 --> 0:18:09.720
<v Speaker 8>So when you look at it that way, I think

0:18:10.160 --> 0:18:12.399
<v Speaker 8>if you save a million dollars in healthcare, then you

0:18:12.440 --> 0:18:14.560
<v Speaker 8>can justify pricing in that order of.

0:18:14.480 --> 0:18:16.919
<v Speaker 6>Magnize around a round a million dollars.

0:18:17.359 --> 0:18:20.359
<v Speaker 8>We haven't yet gotten those prices, but we're in discussions

0:18:20.359 --> 0:18:21.600
<v Speaker 8>with various payers.

0:18:21.280 --> 0:18:23.879
<v Speaker 3>Because gene therapy treatments can cost between hundreds of thousands

0:18:23.920 --> 0:18:26.800
<v Speaker 3>of dollars and several million dollars per treatment. This isn't judgy,

0:18:26.840 --> 0:18:29.680
<v Speaker 3>it's just like trying to understand the marketplace. And again,

0:18:29.720 --> 0:18:31.280
<v Speaker 3>if I have a child and.

0:18:31.200 --> 0:18:34.120
<v Speaker 6>It's the cost doesn't matter, it doesn't matter.

0:18:34.200 --> 0:18:38.480
<v Speaker 8>I would expect this all costs incurred for this treatment

0:18:38.520 --> 0:18:41.400
<v Speaker 8>for this disease are going to be reimbursed by all

0:18:41.400 --> 0:18:42.080
<v Speaker 8>the major.

0:18:41.840 --> 0:18:43.399
<v Speaker 5>Healthcare right absolutely.

0:18:43.680 --> 0:18:44.360
<v Speaker 6>How do you know that?

0:18:44.960 --> 0:18:50.199
<v Speaker 8>We've had already multiple conversations with all the major insurers

0:18:50.520 --> 0:18:53.920
<v Speaker 8>and we've been welcomed. The data supports what I'm saying.

0:18:54.080 --> 0:18:57.159
<v Speaker 6>FDA approval obviously a huge deal. But what about outside

0:18:57.200 --> 0:18:58.159
<v Speaker 6>the US.

0:18:58.560 --> 0:19:01.200
<v Speaker 5>Well, you already have a partnership in Japan.

0:19:01.359 --> 0:19:04.920
<v Speaker 8>This similar product to this has been already in use

0:19:04.960 --> 0:19:09.040
<v Speaker 8>for the last five years. It's safe, it's effective, it

0:19:09.119 --> 0:19:14.960
<v Speaker 8>generates a sustainable revenue stream. Beyond Japan, we will be

0:19:15.040 --> 0:19:17.520
<v Speaker 8>looking at Europe in due course, but our primary focus

0:19:17.560 --> 0:19:19.480
<v Speaker 8>is the US without without doubt.

0:19:19.359 --> 0:19:22.720
<v Speaker 3>Just real quickly, So I don't know, take me six months,

0:19:22.760 --> 0:19:26.960
<v Speaker 3>twelve months, three years, what might this replace as a

0:19:27.040 --> 0:19:29.480
<v Speaker 3>current treatment for whatever ailments?

0:19:29.520 --> 0:19:29.600
<v Speaker 6>Like?

0:19:29.600 --> 0:19:30.680
<v Speaker 3>How are you thinking about it?

0:19:30.800 --> 0:19:33.640
<v Speaker 5>So for this disease, gevisual are there are no approved.

0:19:33.320 --> 0:19:35.280
<v Speaker 3>Treatments for each other as you branch out.

0:19:35.160 --> 0:19:39.199
<v Speaker 8>So other two big areas that we're focusing on our

0:19:39.280 --> 0:19:43.320
<v Speaker 8>inflammatory disease and heart failure. OK, And we've completed a

0:19:43.400 --> 0:19:46.120
<v Speaker 8>large face retrial of more than five hundred patients published

0:19:46.119 --> 0:19:49.119
<v Speaker 8>in some major Kadiovasca journals, and what we've shown is

0:19:49.920 --> 0:19:53.960
<v Speaker 8>surprisingly an eighty to ninety percent reduction over a three

0:19:54.080 --> 0:19:57.960
<v Speaker 8>year period in heart attacks and strokes and mortality in

0:19:58.040 --> 0:20:00.879
<v Speaker 8>patients who have the highest risk for those actors, on

0:20:01.000 --> 0:20:03.639
<v Speaker 8>top of already taking all the various drugs that are

0:20:03.640 --> 0:20:08.960
<v Speaker 8>available for heart failure. In addition, we've also recently published

0:20:08.960 --> 0:20:12.159
<v Speaker 8>the study and Children with Congenital Heart Disease, where a

0:20:12.200 --> 0:20:15.800
<v Speaker 8>single injection of ourselves into the left entricle has has

0:20:16.080 --> 0:20:19.200
<v Speaker 8>almost doubled the size of the left ventricle, which allows

0:20:19.200 --> 0:20:22.800
<v Speaker 8>the surgeon a whole different approach to an outcome.

0:20:22.920 --> 0:20:24.520
<v Speaker 3>Stay in touch. We'd love to hear more.

0:20:25.200 --> 0:20:26.479
<v Speaker 5>Thank you very for having me.

0:20:26.680 --> 0:20:30.280
<v Speaker 3>Doctor Sylvie Etesk, chief executive Officer Managing director of Miso

0:20:30.359 --> 0:20:33.160
<v Speaker 3>Blast joining us right here in studios. You are listening

0:20:33.240 --> 0:20:34.359
<v Speaker 3>to Bloomberg Business Week.

0:20:35.040 --> 0:20:38.400
<v Speaker 2>You are listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch

0:20:38.480 --> 0:20:41.719
<v Speaker 2>us live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern

0:20:41.880 --> 0:20:44.359
<v Speaker 2>Listen on Apple CarPlay and the Android Auto with the

0:20:44.359 --> 0:20:48.520
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

0:20:50.520 --> 0:20:52.560
<v Speaker 7>Marcle, I'll bet you let me drive.

0:20:52.800 --> 0:20:57.880
<v Speaker 6>Oh no, no, no, no, this is not a toy, honey.

0:20:57.720 --> 0:21:01.680
<v Speaker 3>Please gravel. Great, I want to drive.

0:21:03.880 --> 0:21:04.560
<v Speaker 5>A good question.

0:21:08.480 --> 0:21:11.200
<v Speaker 2>This is the drive to the clothes now plunks for

0:21:11.320 --> 0:21:14.840
<v Speaker 2>music Well Briar, Jon and Don on Bloomberg Radio.

0:21:15.040 --> 0:21:17.359
<v Speaker 3>All right, TikTok, everybody, eighteen minutes to go until we

0:21:17.359 --> 0:21:20.280
<v Speaker 3>wrap up the Monday trade. Definitely off our best levels

0:21:20.320 --> 0:21:22.159
<v Speaker 3>of the session. In fact, the doubt a little bit

0:21:22.160 --> 0:21:23.960
<v Speaker 3>in the red here, but you're still looking at a

0:21:24.000 --> 0:21:26.040
<v Speaker 3>gain of about more than two hundred points. I heard

0:21:26.080 --> 0:21:28.720
<v Speaker 3>that from Charlie and Bill Maloney. Up about one percent

0:21:28.760 --> 0:21:30.920
<v Speaker 3>on that Nasdaq one hundred, just up about half a

0:21:30.960 --> 0:21:33.280
<v Speaker 3>percent on the S and P five hundred. But there

0:21:33.359 --> 0:21:35.720
<v Speaker 3>is a lot coming out investors, and a lot more

0:21:35.760 --> 0:21:39.040
<v Speaker 3>to come this week in terms of economic news. Fed minutes,

0:21:39.119 --> 0:21:40.880
<v Speaker 3>So strap in everybody.

0:21:41.000 --> 0:21:43.000
<v Speaker 6>I mean, we started this first Monday of twenty twenty

0:21:43.040 --> 0:21:45.840
<v Speaker 6>five with quite a bit of news. President like Donald

0:21:45.840 --> 0:21:48.359
<v Speaker 6>Trump denying that Washington Post report that his aids are

0:21:48.359 --> 0:21:50.880
<v Speaker 6>considering narrowing as tariff plan so that it would only

0:21:50.960 --> 0:21:54.600
<v Speaker 6>apply to limited, specific critical imports. Carol Our next guest,

0:21:54.640 --> 0:21:56.800
<v Speaker 6>says that tariffs from China could pose a big risk

0:21:56.840 --> 0:21:59.200
<v Speaker 6>to the economy if they're actually implemented.

0:21:59.280 --> 0:22:01.680
<v Speaker 3>No, it's a really important point time for our drive

0:22:01.720 --> 0:22:04.439
<v Speaker 3>to the closed guest with us as Tony Roth, he's

0:22:04.520 --> 0:22:07.560
<v Speaker 3>chief investment officer at Wilmington Trust and he joins us

0:22:07.600 --> 0:22:10.520
<v Speaker 3>from the greater Philadelphia area, of course, in the great

0:22:10.560 --> 0:22:12.800
<v Speaker 3>state of Pennsylvania. Hey, Tony, good to have you here

0:22:12.800 --> 0:22:16.040
<v Speaker 3>with us. Timely guest to have on since we've been

0:22:16.080 --> 0:22:19.040
<v Speaker 3>so focused about what may or may not be when

0:22:19.080 --> 0:22:22.440
<v Speaker 3>it comes to the presidle x tariff plans. Talked to

0:22:22.480 --> 0:22:25.400
<v Speaker 3>us though, specifically about tariffs from China and the risk

0:22:25.440 --> 0:22:26.200
<v Speaker 3>to the economy.

0:22:27.840 --> 0:22:31.359
<v Speaker 9>Well, if we have an amount of incremental tariffs heral

0:22:31.400 --> 0:22:33.639
<v Speaker 9>that equaled the amount that we had with the first

0:22:33.760 --> 0:22:36.720
<v Speaker 9>Trunk presidency, it would be about fifty billion dollars of

0:22:36.840 --> 0:22:40.360
<v Speaker 9>incremental revenue. But if we had an amount, and that's

0:22:40.400 --> 0:22:42.280
<v Speaker 9>not a lot, by the way, and it's not a

0:22:42.280 --> 0:22:45.200
<v Speaker 9>lot of tariffs. On the other hand, if we had

0:22:45.240 --> 0:22:48.480
<v Speaker 9>an amount of tariffs that was consistent with what the

0:22:48.520 --> 0:22:54.200
<v Speaker 9>President has described, we would see total imports from China

0:22:54.320 --> 0:22:59.440
<v Speaker 9>drop from currently fourteen percent of total imports to probably

0:22:59.480 --> 0:23:02.920
<v Speaker 9>over course of his presidency, to five percent of total imports,

0:23:03.119 --> 0:23:06.680
<v Speaker 9>and we would see a very significant increase in CPI

0:23:06.880 --> 0:23:10.280
<v Speaker 9>over a one year basis. It would not constitute structural inflation,

0:23:10.680 --> 0:23:13.520
<v Speaker 9>so it would happened one time as these tariffs took hold.

0:23:14.359 --> 0:23:16.280
<v Speaker 9>When they took hold, it probably take some time for

0:23:16.320 --> 0:23:19.760
<v Speaker 9>tariffs of that significance to take hold. But because those

0:23:19.800 --> 0:23:22.840
<v Speaker 9>tariffs would be so large, if in fact they happened

0:23:22.920 --> 0:23:26.240
<v Speaker 9>along the lines of the former president has described, we

0:23:26.280 --> 0:23:29.080
<v Speaker 9>would see a pretty significant impact to GDP, to the

0:23:29.080 --> 0:23:32.360
<v Speaker 9>point where we could even have a recession. Because our

0:23:32.359 --> 0:23:36.040
<v Speaker 9>baseline is for only around one point seven one point

0:23:36.040 --> 0:23:38.600
<v Speaker 9>eight percent growth for this year, which is lower than

0:23:38.640 --> 0:23:42.359
<v Speaker 9>the overall Street. So there's not as much margin for

0:23:42.600 --> 0:23:45.520
<v Speaker 9>the economy in our view as the Street thinks. And

0:23:46.000 --> 0:23:48.960
<v Speaker 9>if in fact the President goes that hard on these tariffs,

0:23:49.200 --> 0:23:53.000
<v Speaker 9>you could really see that inflationary impact on the economy,

0:23:53.720 --> 0:23:56.720
<v Speaker 9>on consumers, and you could see the economy slide into recession.

0:23:56.880 --> 0:23:58.639
<v Speaker 6>We've spoken to some guests over the past couple of

0:23:58.680 --> 0:24:02.680
<v Speaker 6>months after the president, one in November who reminded us

0:24:02.760 --> 0:24:05.680
<v Speaker 6>that the tariffs that the former president wanted to put

0:24:05.720 --> 0:24:08.560
<v Speaker 6>into place during his first term when he said it,

0:24:09.119 --> 0:24:12.680
<v Speaker 6>the tariffs were implemented, i e. What he says goes

0:24:12.720 --> 0:24:15.480
<v Speaker 6>when it comes to tariffs is the market taking into

0:24:15.520 --> 0:24:18.320
<v Speaker 6>account the full risk of tariffs.

0:24:17.960 --> 0:24:22.439
<v Speaker 9>Here, Clearly they're not taking the full risk. If the

0:24:22.520 --> 0:24:25.199
<v Speaker 9>measure is what he's described in this election, which is

0:24:25.240 --> 0:24:28.239
<v Speaker 9>to say, one hundred percent tariffs on China up to

0:24:29.320 --> 0:24:32.640
<v Speaker 9>twenty five percent tariffs on most of our other trading partners,

0:24:32.960 --> 0:24:36.040
<v Speaker 9>that's not remotely taken into account. I think that the

0:24:36.119 --> 0:24:39.359
<v Speaker 9>dynamic that we saw, however, in the market today is

0:24:39.480 --> 0:24:42.080
<v Speaker 9>a microcosm for what we're going to experience over the

0:24:42.119 --> 0:24:44.160
<v Speaker 9>course of at least the first half of the year,

0:24:44.520 --> 0:24:47.920
<v Speaker 9>which is to say, you're going to see this president

0:24:48.280 --> 0:24:50.080
<v Speaker 9>act as a negotiator. He's not going to want to

0:24:50.080 --> 0:24:53.000
<v Speaker 9>give up any of his leverage. And so when stories

0:24:53.000 --> 0:24:56.919
<v Speaker 9>come out that suggests perhaps in practice he recognizes the

0:24:57.040 --> 0:25:01.040
<v Speaker 9>risk to economic growth and inflation that tariffs pose, he's

0:25:01.040 --> 0:25:02.600
<v Speaker 9>going to push back hard on that, and that's going

0:25:02.680 --> 0:25:05.639
<v Speaker 9>to cause volatility in the markets, much like we saw today.

0:25:06.160 --> 0:25:09.800
<v Speaker 9>And so while the markets are not pricing in the

0:25:09.840 --> 0:25:13.879
<v Speaker 9>degree of tariffs that he's talked about, probably aptly so,

0:25:14.119 --> 0:25:16.520
<v Speaker 9>because the degree of tariffs that he's talked about this

0:25:16.560 --> 0:25:18.320
<v Speaker 9>time around are so much greater than they were the

0:25:18.359 --> 0:25:21.560
<v Speaker 9>first term, is very unlikely that he would in fact

0:25:21.680 --> 0:25:24.320
<v Speaker 9>move to implement tariffs of that scale.

0:25:24.640 --> 0:25:28.720
<v Speaker 3>However, it is also an individual, the president elect, that

0:25:28.760 --> 0:25:32.160
<v Speaker 3>watches the financial markets pretty closely, and he doesn't necessarily,

0:25:32.280 --> 0:25:34.440
<v Speaker 3>or at least many have told us, doesn't want to

0:25:34.440 --> 0:25:37.200
<v Speaker 3>see them fall apart on his watch. So how might

0:25:37.280 --> 0:25:41.240
<v Speaker 3>that be a bit of a checks and balances in

0:25:41.359 --> 0:25:44.119
<v Speaker 3>terms of Trump policy. It's not like he's looking to

0:25:44.160 --> 0:25:46.919
<v Speaker 3>get re elected at the end of this term.

0:25:47.560 --> 0:25:50.840
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, that's a really great point. And what I would

0:25:50.840 --> 0:25:52.520
<v Speaker 9>say is I would keep a very close eye in

0:25:52.560 --> 0:25:56.280
<v Speaker 9>the ten year yield because right now we're around four

0:25:56.280 --> 0:25:58.080
<v Speaker 9>to sixty maybe a little bit less at this time

0:25:58.119 --> 0:26:02.439
<v Speaker 9>of day. Were over four sixty yearlier today. But the

0:26:02.520 --> 0:26:04.639
<v Speaker 9>ten year is really a great proxy for how the

0:26:04.680 --> 0:26:08.919
<v Speaker 9>markets are viewing the overall program economic program from this

0:26:09.040 --> 0:26:11.760
<v Speaker 9>new administration. And if we move to a level that

0:26:11.920 --> 0:26:14.920
<v Speaker 9>starts getting into the four seventy five to five percent range,

0:26:15.200 --> 0:26:17.719
<v Speaker 9>that's going to really scare this president, and it's going

0:26:17.760 --> 0:26:20.320
<v Speaker 9>to really cause the president to pull back on whatever

0:26:20.359 --> 0:26:22.840
<v Speaker 9>it is that may be causing bond yields to rise

0:26:22.880 --> 0:26:27.520
<v Speaker 9>in that direction, likely probably an excess of fiscal spending

0:26:27.840 --> 0:26:30.159
<v Speaker 9>and increasing the deficit, so on and so forth. The

0:26:30.400 --> 0:26:36.280
<v Speaker 9>bond Midgetlantis come out and onward from there, it's going

0:26:36.320 --> 0:26:38.120
<v Speaker 9>to be inflationary and it's going to cause the FED

0:26:38.200 --> 0:26:39.680
<v Speaker 9>to non in fact be able to look to lower

0:26:39.760 --> 0:26:43.480
<v Speaker 9>rage further from here. And so I think that yes,

0:26:43.600 --> 0:26:45.359
<v Speaker 9>he's going to be sensitive to the stock market, but

0:26:45.359 --> 0:26:47.000
<v Speaker 9>he's also going to be a lot more sensitive to

0:26:47.000 --> 0:26:48.640
<v Speaker 9>the bond market than he has been in the past

0:26:48.680 --> 0:26:52.000
<v Speaker 9>as well, given that we have this scenario now where

0:26:52.280 --> 0:26:56.480
<v Speaker 9>if the long term bond goes much above where it

0:26:56.560 --> 0:26:59.399
<v Speaker 9>is today, you're going to have a crushing impact on

0:27:00.640 --> 0:27:01.520
<v Speaker 9>the deficit.

0:27:02.040 --> 0:27:04.399
<v Speaker 3>And you are definitely seeing a buifurcation between like the

0:27:04.400 --> 0:27:07.240
<v Speaker 3>two and the ten right now. In terms of expectations,

0:27:07.359 --> 0:27:09.520
<v Speaker 3>I just want to kind of follow up. While the

0:27:09.520 --> 0:27:12.440
<v Speaker 3>president elect doesn't necessarily look to get reelected, folks in

0:27:12.480 --> 0:27:14.720
<v Speaker 3>Congress will look to get re elected and so they're

0:27:14.720 --> 0:27:17.280
<v Speaker 3>not going to want policies that maybe, you know, kill

0:27:17.320 --> 0:27:19.919
<v Speaker 3>markets or kill the economy. So it's just something you

0:27:19.920 --> 0:27:20.920
<v Speaker 3>know to impress to keep on.

0:27:20.840 --> 0:27:23.040
<v Speaker 6>Our That's a good point, hey, Tony. One thing I

0:27:23.040 --> 0:27:26.760
<v Speaker 6>didn't hear you say in terms of risks was anything

0:27:26.800 --> 0:27:32.919
<v Speaker 6>related to mass deportations or immigration policy and sort of

0:27:32.920 --> 0:27:34.240
<v Speaker 6>what that does or what that.

0:27:34.160 --> 0:27:35.120
<v Speaker 5>Could do to the economy.

0:27:35.119 --> 0:27:35.919
<v Speaker 6>How are you looking at that?

0:27:37.040 --> 0:27:37.920
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, it's a great point.

0:27:37.960 --> 0:27:39.720
<v Speaker 9>In fact, we just came out with our we're coming

0:27:39.760 --> 0:27:42.280
<v Speaker 9>out with our outlook for the year tomorrow in fact

0:27:42.359 --> 0:27:45.159
<v Speaker 9>called investing in a shoot and Ladder's economy, and the

0:27:45.200 --> 0:27:48.639
<v Speaker 9>basic idea is that we're in an environment where we're

0:27:48.680 --> 0:27:51.720
<v Speaker 9>moving gradually upwards. We do have a baseline forecast of

0:27:51.800 --> 0:27:54.119
<v Speaker 9>around one or three quarter percent out for growth, but

0:27:54.160 --> 0:27:56.560
<v Speaker 9>there are these ideas of these long shoots you could

0:27:56.720 --> 0:27:58.600
<v Speaker 9>you could you could hit if you if you get

0:27:58.600 --> 0:28:02.960
<v Speaker 9>these big tariffs, say that the shoot for the immigration

0:28:03.080 --> 0:28:05.679
<v Speaker 9>scenario is probably not as great because we have a

0:28:05.680 --> 0:28:08.719
<v Speaker 9>baseline forecast in any event, to see unemployment move upwards

0:28:08.720 --> 0:28:11.840
<v Speaker 9>this year at around four point seven percent, and immigration

0:28:12.000 --> 0:28:16.320
<v Speaker 9>is going to take notwithstanding all of the noise around

0:28:16.680 --> 0:28:20.320
<v Speaker 9>immigrating millions of people, deplorting millions of people, it's going

0:28:20.400 --> 0:28:22.480
<v Speaker 9>to take some time for that to all take effects.

0:28:23.440 --> 0:28:25.440
<v Speaker 9>And we're in an environment right now where the labor

0:28:25.480 --> 0:28:28.000
<v Speaker 9>market is not doing so great. So I don't think

0:28:28.000 --> 0:28:31.040
<v Speaker 9>that the immigration for twenty twenty five anyway, or the

0:28:31.080 --> 0:28:34.000
<v Speaker 9>deportation issues are going to present the biggest shoot. I

0:28:34.000 --> 0:28:36.119
<v Speaker 9>think the biggest shoot is really going to be around

0:28:36.720 --> 0:28:39.320
<v Speaker 9>the terrif issue that we've already covered, although I certainly

0:28:39.320 --> 0:28:41.400
<v Speaker 9>would keep an eye on that deportation issue as we

0:28:41.440 --> 0:28:43.520
<v Speaker 9>get into next as we get closer to next year,

0:28:44.040 --> 0:28:46.440
<v Speaker 9>and as we get into potentially a stronger economic cycle.

0:28:46.480 --> 0:28:46.760
<v Speaker 5>Again.

0:28:46.840 --> 0:28:48.360
<v Speaker 3>No, you're right, and there's a lot of employers who

0:28:48.400 --> 0:28:50.560
<v Speaker 3>say we need these workers. I'm going to leave with there, Tony.

0:28:50.600 --> 0:28:53.000
<v Speaker 3>Thank you so much. Tony Roth, Chief Investment Officer at

0:28:53.000 --> 0:28:53.840
<v Speaker 3>Wilmington Trust.

0:28:54.840 --> 0:28:59.680
<v Speaker 2>This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

0:28:59.800 --> 0:29:03.560
<v Speaker 2>and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday

0:29:03.560 --> 0:29:07.600
<v Speaker 2>afternoons from two to five pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,

0:29:07.640 --> 0:29:11.520
<v Speaker 2>the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App.

0:29:11.760 --> 0:29:14.560
<v Speaker 2>You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

0:29:14.760 --> 0:29:16.920
<v Speaker 2>and always on the Bloomberg terminal.