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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 3: All right, good Wednesday morning, and welcome to Breaking Points.

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Speaker 3: We mix it up a little bit, and you're not Sager.

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Speaker 3: I'm definitely not Sager. I'm not Christ Okay, done, We've

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Speaker 4: You don't like a segment, you just skip right past it.

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Speaker 4: This will list were going on a little long.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, you could just scrub yea yeah. But this

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Speaker 5: over there this week. Claim that we appreciate everyone being here.

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Speaker 5: Second half the Friday shows as are for premium subs only.

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Speaker 6: Welcome.

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Speaker 5: Really, we're so happy to see so many new faces,

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Speaker 5: and we have a lot to talk about today, So

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Speaker 5: we're going to start with updates from Iran and the

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Speaker 5: broader Middle East. Just basically, Secretary Access said yesterday this

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Speaker 5: is going to be the most intense day of the war,

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Speaker 5: and that proved, unsurprisingly.

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Speaker 6: To be true.

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Speaker 4: From both sides.

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Speaker 3: My dropsite colleague Jeremy Scahee will be joining us to

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Speaker 3: talk about some of the reporting that he's done.

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Speaker 4: He was supposed to be here last week.

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Speaker 3: He bumped us for an interview he was doing with

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Speaker 3: the deputy Foreign Minister.

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Speaker 4: It was luckily we had two people scheduled, so it's okay, fine, Jeremy,

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Speaker 4: we'll let you go this time.

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Speaker 3: I think if you've been following Jeremy's reporting, you have

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Speaker 3: known ahead of time, sometimes by weeks, you know where

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Speaker 3: this is going. So we're going to talk to him about,

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Speaker 3: you know, what he's been seeing the last few days

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Speaker 3: and what he sees coming over the next few days.

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Speaker 4: Particularly as.

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Speaker 3: In Washington, you're starting to see Republicans suggest that we

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Speaker 3: declare victory and wrap this up. Tom Cotton said that yesterday,

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Speaker 3: whereas Democrats, kind of fitting with the reporting that we've

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Speaker 3: been doing previously, are very critical of the war but

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Speaker 3: don't seem to be doing anything to stop it. Now

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Speaker 3: they're talking about we need to have hearings about the

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Speaker 3: purpose of.

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Speaker 4: The war, what that should do it? How about we

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Speaker 4: end the war and then.

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Speaker 3: Then we could talk about it. But like it feels

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Speaker 3: like they like the fact that it's hurting Republicans so much.

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Speaker 6: They love it. They love it.

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Speaker 5: I liked the idea that Thomas Massey had to actually

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Speaker 5: just put a declaration of war on the floor that

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Speaker 5: he would vote against to see who would vote at

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Speaker 5: the end of the day for it or against it?

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Speaker 4: Right, anybody feel like voting on this?

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Speaker 6: It is just a thought.

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Speaker 5: Lots going on in that in that region. Obviously that

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Speaker 5: we're going to get to some new soundbites from John

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Speaker 5: Meerscheimer that are really worth thinking about. Taking some time

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Speaker 5: to pause, and you know, we're almost what are we two? Well,

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Speaker 5: we can half into this thing right now. And it's true,

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Speaker 5: as Ryan said, it's the chatter is now should we

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Speaker 5: from Republicans just declare victory? Trump is certainly talking that way,

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Speaker 5: and you see perception history being written in real time.

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Speaker 5: So important to kind of stop on that point. We're

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Speaker 5: going to talk about some of the tactical questions to Ryan, Yes.

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Speaker 3: And then CNN and the New York Times we're calling

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Speaker 3: this block. Tapper have absolutely lost their minds over a

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Speaker 3: combination of the way that they're approaching this war and

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Speaker 3: the fact that Zorn Mamdani I guess refuses to resign.

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Speaker 4: I don't like. I don't know exactly what their what

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Speaker 4: their problem is, but.

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Speaker 3: They have gone so far overboard it's utterly insane, to

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Speaker 3: the point where we actually, I think, have to talk

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Speaker 3: about it. Also, we did some our own polling. We

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Speaker 3: put a poll out into the field, drop site and

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Speaker 3: Teo put this into the field. We're going to have

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Speaker 3: some exclusive results from that. As you can imagine, we

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Speaker 3: did not ask the kinds of polling questions that the

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Speaker 3: mainstream media would have asked. One of them we asked

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Speaker 3: was do you believe that Donald Trump was motivated at

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Speaker 3: least in part to go to war with the Ron

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Speaker 3: to cover up the Jeffrey Epstein scandal.

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Speaker 4: If you're watching this program, you won't. You won't be

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Speaker 4: You might.

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Speaker 3: Be pleasantly surprised that you are in the majority of

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Speaker 3: the country in believing that, yes, he did. So It's

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Speaker 3: not just people who watch this program, like the average

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Speaker 3: American believes that that's the case. We'll unpack that, get

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Speaker 3: into the precise numbers and a lot of other interesting

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Speaker 3: questions that we asked too.

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Speaker 6: You guys asked, on a scale of ten to ten,

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Speaker 6: how much do you love this war.

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Speaker 4: And also I thought that was a creative one.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, have you have you exercised your right to the

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Speaker 3: VP three twenty six breakingpoints dot com premium subscription and

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Speaker 3: the result not enough Americans yet have, So make sure

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Speaker 3: you do that. And we're going to talk about some

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Speaker 3: of the podcasters who this for whom this is a

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Speaker 3: breaking point, like Cheez like they cannot abide anymore.

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Speaker 4: Brogan among them, for.

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Speaker 6: Whom it is not a breaking point.

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Speaker 4: Bill Maher, he's fine with this.

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Speaker 6: So we have some dueling.

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Speaker 5: Clips with Rogan mar and we're going to dive in

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Speaker 5: do all of it. So let's start now with we

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Speaker 5: called straight Gate Ryan the Strait of hermus where there

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Speaker 5: was some conflicting reports about what the hell is going

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Speaker 5: on in the Strait of hermus yesterday Ryan critical question

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Speaker 5: not helpful when there's muddled information about what's happening in

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Speaker 5: the strait of her moves. So let's start with a one.

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Speaker 5: We could put this up on the screen, a report

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Speaker 5: from CBS News' Jennifer Jacobs, who said US intelligence assets

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Speaker 5: have begun to see indications Iran is taking steps to

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Speaker 5: deploy minds in the strait of her MOUs shipping lane,

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Speaker 5: Iran is using smaller crafts that can carry two to

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Speaker 5: three mines each. Well, Iran's mindstock isn't publicly known. Estimates

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Speaker 5: over the years have ranged from roughly two thousand, six

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Speaker 5: thousand naval minds of Iranian, Chinese, and Russian made variants.

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Speaker 5: According to Jim Laporta at CBS News, Ryan, give me

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Speaker 5: a reaction to this bit of info.

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Speaker 3: Well, first of all, can you imagine being the sailor

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Speaker 3: tasked with this? That's like and Trump responded by saying,

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Speaker 3: if Iran has put out any minds in the hormones straight,

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Speaker 3: and we have no reports of them doing so, we

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Speaker 3: want them removed immediately. If for any reason, minds were

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Speaker 3: placed and they are not removed forthwith, the military consequences

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Speaker 3: to Iran will be at a level never seen before. If,

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Speaker 3: on the other hand, they removed what may have been placed,

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Speaker 3: it will be a giant step in the right direction.

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Speaker 3: President Donald J. Trump, So, the US has been striking

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Speaker 3: some boats which they say were laying mines. Problem for them,

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Speaker 3: You know, once they lay their minds that you know

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Speaker 3: their their their mission is accomplished. Even if most of

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Speaker 3: the sailors who are sent out on that mission probably

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Speaker 3: expect that the chances of them coming back as slim.

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Speaker 3: There was also footage of our mind sweepers. Did you

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Speaker 3: see this no pulling into the dock in Philadelphia because

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Speaker 3: they were being decommissioned because they were too old? Like really, like,

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Speaker 3: you gotta be kidding me. That sounds yeah, it sounds

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Speaker 3: sounds absolutely perfect. So this is just up being upping

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Speaker 3: the cost of trying to trying to move through the

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Speaker 3: straight of Formosa. Because Trump's strategy this week has been

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Speaker 3: to basically, you know, chant the names of the captains,

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Speaker 3: like you can do this, guys, come on, like that's

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Speaker 3: his strategy, Like Tom Tom Tom Tom, Like you know

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Speaker 3: you could just bow right through, you know, you know,

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Speaker 3: man up have the courage to do it. So what

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Speaker 3: if the insurers are not there? We've got the Export

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Speaker 3: Import Bank, Well they'll get you, or the Finance Corporation

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Speaker 3: Development Finance Corporation.

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Speaker 4: What we got your back. Don't worry.

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Speaker 3: When when has the US ever betrayed one of our

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Speaker 3: commitments made hastily.

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Speaker 4: In a time of war? We got you covered.

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Speaker 3: And so some ships are turning off their transponders and

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Speaker 3: moving through. But now and if the Iranians don't see

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Speaker 3: them coming through a lot of them.

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Speaker 4: Some of them are making it through.

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Speaker 3: If you don't know where the minds are, right, it

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Speaker 3: changes the calculation again.

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Speaker 6: Well, and let's put this Chris Murphy post up on

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Speaker 6: the screen.

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Speaker 5: This is a two C Senator Murphy yesterday posted at night,

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Speaker 5: and on the strait of her moves, they had no plan.

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Speaker 5: Referring to the administration, I can't go into more detail

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Speaker 5: about how Iran comes up the straight, but suffice it

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Speaker 5: to say right now they don't know how to get

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Speaker 5: it safely back open, which is unforgivable because this part

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Speaker 5: of the disaster was one hundred percent foreseeable and ran

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Speaker 5: obviously with the strait of her moves. The oil prices

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Speaker 5: are on the line. You have fertilizer, which a huge

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Speaker 5: chunk of the world's fertilizer moves to the strait of

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Speaker 5: her moves. So right now in playbook this morning, I

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Speaker 5: opened it up right before I got here. And of

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Speaker 5: course you have this internal debate within the administration about

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Speaker 5: politically how long it is tenable for oil and gas

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Speaker 5: prices to be going up like this, how long they

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Speaker 5: think they could get away with three to four weeks

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Speaker 5: and we're coming up on the end of week two.

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Speaker 6: Here Democrats are saying.

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Speaker 4: Oh, I think that's what the Trump administry is.

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Speaker 5: That's what the sources close to the administration were telling

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Speaker 5: Politico this morning.

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Speaker 6: Also that once.

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Speaker 5: We're still political, they were surprised when they saw that

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Speaker 5: one hundred and twenty dollars barrel spike that caught them

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Speaker 5: off guard. So this sort of goes to what Chris

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Speaker 5: Murphy is saying here is that there wasn't quite a

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Speaker 5: plan and there was a lack of understanding or diligence

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Speaker 5: about understanding exactly what was going to happen in the

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Speaker 5: Strait of Hormos after the strikes initially.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and the you know, we have some strategic patroleum

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Speaker 3: reserve that we can release that G seven have their

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Speaker 3: own emergency kind of global reserve that they're planning on releasing,

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Speaker 3: and so.

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Speaker 4: So there's there's that option.

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Speaker 3: The other option is for the US to start accompanying

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Speaker 3: ships right protecting them as they moved through the Strait

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Speaker 3: of Hormuz. And you had an absolutely incredible moment yesterday

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Speaker 3: in the financial markets where the US Energy Secretary we

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Speaker 3: can put up this next element, Chris wright. He comes

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Speaker 3: out and he announces that the US Navy has successfully escorted.

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Speaker 4: A tanker through the strait.

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Speaker 3: So if you knew that he was about to announce that,

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Speaker 3: or you if you knew that that had happened and

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Speaker 3: you bought oil futures, you made an enormous amount of

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Speaker 3: money over the next five minutes.

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Speaker 4: As as well.

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Speaker 3: Sorry, you lost an enormous amount of money if you

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Speaker 3: if you owned or if you were short oil, you did.

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Speaker 5: Great because I thought you're gonna say, if you were

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Speaker 5: like specific on polymarket.

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Speaker 4: Right, well that too.

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Speaker 3: But so oil prices crashed because like, oh amazing, So

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Speaker 3: the Navy successfully escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz.

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Speaker 4: The cavalry has arrived.

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Speaker 3: This the battle is saved, the world oil supply is secured.

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Speaker 3: Five minutes later, he deletes the tweet. Imagine being the

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Speaker 3: trader who's like refreshing that tweet. It's like sweet has

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Speaker 3: been deleted. You're like, oh god, because as it turns out,

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Speaker 3: it was either a lie.

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Speaker 4: Or it was untrue. We need to get to the

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Speaker 4: bottom of this.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, many, many, many millions of dollars changed hands and

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Speaker 3: the US lost whatever little tiny credibility it had left.

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Speaker 3: So Levitt, Carolyn Levitt, was asked about this, and let's

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Speaker 3: get her response.

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Speaker 6: I was made aware of this post.

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Speaker 7: I haven't had a chance to talk to the Energy

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Speaker 7: Secretary about it directly, however, I know the post was

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Speaker 7: taken down pretty quickly, and I can confirm that the

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Speaker 7: US Navy has not escorted a tanker or a vessel

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Speaker 7: at this time, though, of course that's an option the

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Speaker 7: President has said he will absolutely utilize if and when

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Speaker 7: necessary at the appropriate time.

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Speaker 4: Okay, so never mind that did not happen.

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Speaker 6: This is a cabinet secretary.

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Speaker 4: This cabinet is the Energy Secretary, Energy secretary. It'd be

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Speaker 4: one thing of the HUD secretary. Yes, like heard a

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Speaker 4: little gossip and tweeted that.

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Speaker 3: Right, the Energy Secretary, Yeah, that's the that's the guy

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Speaker 3: who would know that.

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Speaker 5: Also the Umbrella Nuclear Policy Organization. So not looking great

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Speaker 5: if you're just firing off tweets and deleting them about

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Speaker 5: fragile geopolitical questions.

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Speaker 3: And we're going to talk later with Jeremy about the

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Speaker 3: either the lack of a strategy or the way that

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Speaker 3: the strategy is unfolding. But for a glimpse into how

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Speaker 3: completely bankrupt the US approach is. Right now, you've got

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Speaker 3: Fox and Friends buddies just throwing out random, random plays.

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Speaker 3: Let's let's take an island and then control the oil.

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Speaker 3: Let's play a five here.

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Speaker 8: Look to see him take carg Island, that oil island.

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Speaker 9: He would be just like that as well.

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Speaker 4: We control their oil. Ninety percent of their roil goes

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Speaker 4: to this little island.

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Speaker 9: The President talked about it in nineteen eighty eight, two

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Speaker 9: year and I think you should grab it.

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Speaker 3: And I think that gets to the folly that was

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Speaker 3: at the heart of this entire operation Epstein Fury to

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Speaker 3: begin with, which was it's.

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Speaker 4: Gonna be like Venezuela.

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Speaker 3: And so it went great, we went in, we got

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Speaker 3: Maduro and then they just handed us to oil and

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Speaker 3: it was amazing. And so they keep trying to reconfigure

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Speaker 3: what is obviously a completely different situation into that, and

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Speaker 3: I think they're looking for something that they can do

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Speaker 3: and then declare victory.

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Speaker 6: But yeah, I think that's right.

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Speaker 3: But doing that is will be that I mean, do

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Speaker 3: you have any thoughts on that that would be a bloodbath?

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Speaker 3: Holding it would be like quite difficult. I don't think

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Speaker 3: it's serious but any of this was serious and there,

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Speaker 3: and they've tried to do it anyway.

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Speaker 6: I thought I was totally serious. From Brian kill me,

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Speaker 6: he's not serious, like right, right, But that's to your point,

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Speaker 6: like if you.

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Speaker 5: If you don't think certainly, it's hard to tell what's

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Speaker 5: serious when it's being like tossed out between Fox and

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Speaker 5: Friends and the President. We just put the President's tweet

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Speaker 5: about the truth social about the minds up on the screen.

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Speaker 5: He's like, if for any reason the mind like, you

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Speaker 5: never know what he knows and what he's serious about,

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Speaker 5: what he's not serious about, so you have no choice

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Speaker 5: but to take it all seriously. And I think that's

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Speaker 5: exactly what the right, the right position is. So ah,

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Speaker 5: he's joking, Well, we're in war and people are dying,

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Speaker 5: so take him seriously.

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Speaker 6: I agree with you. I think that would be a nightmare.

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Speaker 5: And the long term what does that look like if

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Speaker 5: they're trying to come up with some type.

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Speaker 6: Of deal about the future, what is there what.

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Speaker 5: Is the long term prospect of holding oil island, as

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Speaker 5: Brian Killmad put it, what is the what is the

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Speaker 5: plan for a year from now, for ten years from

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Speaker 5: now if you're holding oil island. How is that going

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Speaker 5: to make things significantly better? How is it going to

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Speaker 5: make the situation less tense? I mean, it just none

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Speaker 5: of it makes sense.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I just think that would be very difficult for

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Speaker 4: them to actually hold it.

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Speaker 6: But right exactly.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And so going to the to the question of

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Speaker 3: because this is.

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Speaker 5: It's basically putting, since we're talking about minds, it's putting

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Speaker 5: like a trip wire.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, right in the middle of the.

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Speaker 4: Hole, Yes, exactly.

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Speaker 3: And so the question really is, you know, can Iron

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Speaker 3: withstand the bombardment that they're taking and continue to fire

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Speaker 3: their own ballistic missiles longer than the US can withstand

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Speaker 3: the cracking of the foundations of the global economy. And

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Speaker 3: that's the key question, and the question underneath that is

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Speaker 3: what happens to the oil flow through the strait of

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Speaker 3: horror moves? So we have some actual data that that's

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Speaker 3: that's emerging that sheds a little light on this and

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Speaker 3: doesn't I don't think would give comfort necessarily to either side,

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Speaker 3: but it's important to have the facts here. So you

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Speaker 3: can put up this drop site post from Twitter. The

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Speaker 3: point they're making here is that about thirty five percent

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Speaker 3: of the oil of the oil that normally goes through

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Speaker 3: the Strait of horm moves is still going through. But

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Speaker 3: let's break that down a little bit. So normally you

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Speaker 3: were averaging about fifteen million.

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Speaker 4: Barrels per day.

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Speaker 3: Now of that, one point two million was Iranian and

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Speaker 3: that is still getting through and it's mostly going to China,

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Speaker 3: so you're actually what you're concerned about is about you know,

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Speaker 3: thirteen point eight million barrels per day, So what's going

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Speaker 3: on with that? So according to that five point five

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Speaker 3: million is still moving. Now you want to subtract the

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Speaker 3: one point two from there to get what actually matters,

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Speaker 3: because the oil that Iran is shipping to China is

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Speaker 3: not is not foundational to the western kind of capital markets.

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Speaker 3: So that gets you down to what three So that's

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Speaker 3: three point three million barrels a day still still going through.

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Speaker 3: So what's happening is that Saudi Arabia is trying to

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Speaker 3: move a lot of their oil through a pipeline and

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Speaker 3: then out the Red Sea, saying more than two million

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Speaker 3: barrels per day are currently moving toward toward the Red Seat.

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Speaker 4: So that's so if.

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Speaker 3: They can't get it out through through the Strait of Hormuz,

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Speaker 3: they're going to move it that way, the UAE is

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Speaker 3: trying to use the Fujera pipeline to move about one

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Speaker 3: point eight million barrels per day, and then there's about

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Speaker 3: five hundred thousand barrels per day from tankers that are

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Speaker 3: turning off their trackers and kind of sneaking through. So

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Speaker 3: five hundred now it's not much like that's not that's

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Speaker 3: that's not enough to service the global economy. But if

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Speaker 3: they can move many millions through these pipelines, now the

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Speaker 3: problem comes sets in. You can hit a pipeline, if

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Speaker 3: we if we go up the escalation ladder to those

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Speaker 3: kinds of strikes, you can certainly hit a pipeline and

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Speaker 3: take that right offline. And the Houthies have not really

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Speaker 3: got involved yet. So if the Houthi said no, actually

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Speaker 3: you're not doing this anymore, which is interesting because remember

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Speaker 3: again we're telling you the truth here. We've told you

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Speaker 3: from the beginning that the Huthis are supported by Iran,

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Speaker 3: but are independent actors.

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Speaker 4: They make their own decisions. In the in the US,

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Speaker 4: the western.

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Speaker 3: Press is no, they're just they're just the the handmaidens

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Speaker 3: of Iran.

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Speaker 4: They do exactly what Iran tells them.

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Speaker 3: Right this moment confirms it, Like if they if they

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Speaker 3: did exactly what Iran wants them to do, would they

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Speaker 3: not be like launching tons of ballistic missiles although at

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Speaker 3: their allies and shutting the Red Sea down? And they're

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Speaker 3: not yet. They're they're talking about you. They're strategizing that. Well,

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Speaker 3: we may see them enter the fray, but they haven't.

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Speaker 5: It's also the interesting because what is Iran right now,

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Speaker 5: Like what is the government of Iran?

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Speaker 6: Is it acting in total concert? Is there?

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Speaker 5: It's it's it's hard to know what would be getting telegraphed.

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Speaker 5: But no, I mean, I see what you're saying.

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Speaker 3: I just as if they come in and shut down

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Speaker 3: the Red Sea, then then you're talking about a whole

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Speaker 3: different ballgame. But if they don't, you might be able

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Speaker 3: and they don't hit these pipelines, you may be able

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Speaker 3: to trickle through enough oil, right to keep prices at

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Speaker 3: a place where the global population can continue to stomach

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Speaker 3: the attack.

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Speaker 6: Maybe right? And I don't know.

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Speaker 5: It's just with this Trump administration now talking about how

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Speaker 5: they think they have a three to four week like

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Speaker 5: landing strip. Basically it does go to why we start

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Speaker 5: hearing them chirp now about declaring mission accomplished and victory.

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Speaker 5: They're obviously very very very nervous about this, and they

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Speaker 5: should be because of everything that was just laid out.

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Speaker 6: Let's get to Meersheimmer.

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Speaker 4: Let's do it.

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Speaker 5: Let's talk about Professor John Mehersheimer's recent remarks about as.

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Speaker 6: We were just saying, who's really winning? What does winning

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Speaker 6: look like?

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Speaker 5: Crystal Flagg this moment for a bunch of senators, by

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Speaker 5: the way, went into a briefing yesterday on the war.

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Speaker 6: That's where Chris.

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Speaker 5: Murphy came out and put out the tweet that he

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Speaker 5: referred to in the last block.

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Speaker 6: We were discussing the strait of horror moves.

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Speaker 5: We have some audio video of Senator Bluementhal also emerging

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Speaker 5: from that briefing. Before we get to it, let's take

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Speaker 5: a listen here to John Meerscheimer to sort of set

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Speaker 5: the table as so, what's been accomplished quote unquote accomplished

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Speaker 5: so far?

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Speaker 10: B one, It's quite clear that the war is not

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Speaker 10: going well for the United States and President Trump, I think,

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Speaker 10: would like to put an end to it, and the

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Speaker 10: problem that he faces is he can't find an off ramp.

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Speaker 10: I think nobody can tell a plausible story about how

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Speaker 10: this war ends. If we had decisively defeated Ran the

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Speaker 10: way we decisive defeated both Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan

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Speaker 10: in World War Two, then you can say the war

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Speaker 10: is over with, we are the winner, and we're going

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Speaker 10: to impose terms on the loser. But that's not what's

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Speaker 10: happened here. They haven't won anything approximating a decisive victory.

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Speaker 10: And in a very important way, the Iranians have an

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Speaker 10: incentive to continue the war, to turn it into a

445
00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:37,000
Speaker 10: protracted war of attrition, and they have the means to

446
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:37,399
Speaker 10: do that.

447
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:41,359
Speaker 5: So obviously, definitions of what that means have been floating

448
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 5: around from this administration itself. Last week, Caroline Levitt had

449
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 5: to come out and enumerate the list of objectives that

450
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:53,400
Speaker 5: the administration had in Iran because so many different things

451
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:57,440
Speaker 5: were floating around from different members of the administration. Which

452
00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 5: is normal enough on a day that ends in war.

453
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:02,480
Speaker 5: Why a lot more egregious when.

454
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 6: You are at war.

455
00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:08,359
Speaker 5: Obviously, so Donald Trump has said he wants unconditional surrender.

456
00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:13,119
Speaker 5: Ryan He's said it's about missiles, it's about nukes. So

457
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 5: some of the challenge here politically for the administration but

458
00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:22,159
Speaker 5: also just for a normal American trying to determine why

459
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:25,800
Speaker 5: seven lives have already been lost, we're looking at new

460
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 5: numbers about how many people have been injured. Actually, why

461
00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:31,359
Speaker 5: don't we just go ahead and rule B three here?

462
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:33,439
Speaker 5: I'm going to jump ahead because we have some new

463
00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:34,640
Speaker 5: information about this.

464
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:35,640
Speaker 6: B three.

465
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 8: Reuters has reported that about one hundred and fifty US

466
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:41,320
Speaker 8: service members have been injured so far.

467
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:43,919
Speaker 10: Can you confirm that number and elaborate on that.

468
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 6: I can't confirm the exact number. I know it's within

469
00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:48,399
Speaker 6: that ballpark, but.

470
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:51,560
Speaker 7: I would defer you to the Pentagon for a specific

471
00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:53,920
Speaker 7: number of wounded or injured thus far.

472
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:58,000
Speaker 5: So as people are trying to determine what the United

473
00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 5: States is doing, why, what is being sacrificed?

474
00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 6: Why?

475
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 5: Here is Richard Blumenthal B two talking about what he

476
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:16,399
Speaker 5: took from a briefing on Capitol Hill yesterday for Senators.

477
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 11: My questions have been unanswered, and I will demand answers

478
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:29,680
Speaker 11: because the American people deserve to know. And I guess

479
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:35,480
Speaker 11: I am most concerned about the threat to American lives

480
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:41,119
Speaker 11: of potentially deploying our sons and daughters on the ground

481
00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:45,639
Speaker 11: in Iran. We seem to be on a path toward

482
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:51,680
Speaker 11: deploying American troops on the ground in Iran to accomplish

483
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:53,520
Speaker 11: any of the potential.

484
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:55,840
Speaker 4: Objectives here and.

485
00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:02,800
Speaker 11: There is also, as disturbingly as anything else, the specter

486
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:11,439
Speaker 11: of active Russian aid to Iran putting in danger American lives.

487
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:15,960
Speaker 4: Literally, Russia seems.

488
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:20,800
Speaker 11: To be aiding our enemy actively and intensively with intelligence

489
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 11: and perhaps with other means. And China also may be

490
00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 11: assisting Iran.

491
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 5: So Bluemosel's Russia Hawk will get to that point in

492
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 5: just a moment. But this is when the multiple layers

493
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:35,439
Speaker 5: here of the politics and the substance, and you have

494
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:38,280
Speaker 5: a senator coming out of briefing saying any of the

495
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:41,119
Speaker 5: potential objectives, not even able to zero in on like

496
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 5: one of the administration's objectives because we're overall objective, because

497
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:49,320
Speaker 5: the messaging has been all over the place, but saying,

498
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:52,359
Speaker 5: you know, here's my interpretation of it, ring we're at

499
00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:56,400
Speaker 5: an inflection point where either the administration decides to cut

500
00:25:56,440 --> 00:26:01,159
Speaker 5: bait and define down what the objectives were, what victory

501
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:05,159
Speaker 5: looks like, or put, as Blumenthal said, troops on the

502
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:11,240
Speaker 5: ground in Iran to actually tackle substantively, whether it's the

503
00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:13,920
Speaker 5: nuclear question, the missile question. I mean, I was talking

504
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:15,919
Speaker 5: to Brian Dean Wright, he's a former CIA guy, I'm

505
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:17,200
Speaker 5: actually the other day and he was like, well, you

506
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:22,120
Speaker 5: could put special forces on the ground to pull the

507
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:26,359
Speaker 5: nuclear material out of the dirt. Well, that's boots on

508
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:29,760
Speaker 5: the ground, that's boots on the fan. So it does

509
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 5: feel like an inflection point right now.

510
00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:35,439
Speaker 3: Yes, And so Senator Chris Murphy also came out of

511
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 3: that meeting and did a Twitter thread that would add

512
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 3: some of this in posts, and he said, you know,

513
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 3: he said that, like, it's totally incoherent what they're hearing

514
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:51,439
Speaker 3: internally of what they're hearing in these classified briefings, and

515
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 3: it contradicts and conflicts with the rationales that were given

516
00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:57,800
Speaker 3: to the extent that any were given at all ahead

517
00:26:57,800 --> 00:26:59,480
Speaker 3: of the war. So one of the things he said,

518
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:05,400
Speaker 3: the war goals do not involve destroying Iran's nuclear program.

519
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:08,879
Speaker 3: You're like, what he writes, this is surprising since Trump

520
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:10,800
Speaker 3: says over and over this is a key goal. So

521
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:14,520
Speaker 3: behind the scenes, planners are saying, no, it's not actually

522
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:19,880
Speaker 3: about the nuclear program. Second, he says they confirmed quote

523
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:24,359
Speaker 3: regime change is also not on the list. So that

524
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:28,919
Speaker 3: was the other thing that we were told explicitly was

525
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 3: an objective here, So that then he's the way he

526
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 3: frames it was, So they're going to spend hundreds of

527
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:36,879
Speaker 3: billions of your taxpayer dollars, get a whole bunch of

528
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:40,240
Speaker 3: Americans killed, and a hardline regime, probably a more anti

529
00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:43,679
Speaker 3: American hardline regime will still be in charge.

530
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:45,720
Speaker 4: And he says, okay, so what are the goals?

531
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:48,480
Speaker 3: He says, it seems primarily destroying lots of missiles and

532
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:52,320
Speaker 3: boats and drone factories. But the question that stumped them

533
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:56,160
Speaker 3: what happens when you stop bombing and they restart production.

534
00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 3: They hinted this is the planners. They hinted at more bombing,

535
00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 3: which is, of course, as he says, endless war. And

536
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:06,160
Speaker 3: then on the straight of her moves, as we talked

537
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:08,400
Speaker 3: about in the last seven they had they had no plan.

538
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 3: So that does that does actually fit with what we've

539
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:16,719
Speaker 3: been thinking about as the actual strategy in place here,

540
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:20,200
Speaker 3: which is not to liberate the Iranian people, has nothing

541
00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:22,639
Speaker 3: to do with the nuclear program. We're not we're not

542
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 3: doing nation building anymore because we you know, the public

543
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 3: has said we don't want to do quote unquote nation building.

544
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:32,119
Speaker 4: Anymore. So we're just gonna do nation destruction. We're going

545
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:33,320
Speaker 4: to nation unbuild this thing.

546
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 3: We're gonna try to cause as much damage as we

547
00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 3: possibly can. Then we're going to stop, and in the

548
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,840
Speaker 3: second that they try to start rebuilding anything, we're going

549
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 3: to attack them again.

550
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 4: That explains why the Iranians feel like.

551
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:52,560
Speaker 3: They have to take a huge cost from us, so

552
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 3: that we don't think that that's actually an okay thing

553
00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 3: to do to another country, to just keep mowing the lawn,

554
00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:00,800
Speaker 3: to just just kill them when whenever we feel like it,

555
00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:02,240
Speaker 3: for as long as we feel like it.

556
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:05,440
Speaker 5: But also not a strategy that is going to fly

557
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,120
Speaker 5: with the American people in the long term.

558
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:09,600
Speaker 6: I mean, well, it's not.

559
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:14,000
Speaker 5: Let's say, it may be electorally palatable because people are

560
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 5: suffering at home and have a million different priorities, but

561
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 5: it's not the priority of the American people.

562
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 4: It's so expensive too, it's so expensive.

563
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:24,840
Speaker 5: But to be bogged down in a never ending conflict

564
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 5: because of a policy choice, no, yes, that's most people

565
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:32,160
Speaker 5: would If you explain that, most people would be like,

566
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:34,479
Speaker 5: why are we doing this? Why are we doing this

567
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 5: after the last twenty thirty years, Why are we doing.

568
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 3: This, and so Pete Hegseth, our war secretary, as he

569
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 3: calls himself.

570
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 6: Again, much more accurate. You heard it here first, there

571
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 6: you go.

572
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 3: Not a declaration of war. Is our military Operations secretary,

573
00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:54,280
Speaker 3: I guess the Department of Military Operations saying that we

574
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 3: are only intensifying the attacks.

575
00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:57,240
Speaker 4: Let's roll heg Seth.

576
00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 8: For example, today will be yet again our most intense

577
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:07,160
Speaker 8: day of strikes inside Iran, the most fighters, the most bombers,

578
00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:12,760
Speaker 8: the most strikes, intelligence, more refined and better than ever.

579
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:15,800
Speaker 8: So that's on one hand. On the other hand, the

580
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:19,000
Speaker 8: last twenty four hours have seen Iran fire the lowest

581
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:25,080
Speaker 8: number of missiles they've been capable of firing yet, just

582
00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 8: the bifurcation, just the trend lines that we talked about

583
00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 8: on our first briefing.

584
00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:34,040
Speaker 3: Steve Witkoff was asked about the claims that Russia is

585
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 3: helping Iran.

586
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:36,280
Speaker 4: Let's roll some wit coough here.

587
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 9: Yesterday on the call with the President, the Russians said

588
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 9: that they have not been sharing's that's what they said,

589
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:46,080
Speaker 9: so you know, we can take them at their word.

590
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:50,880
Speaker 9: But they did say that, and yesterday morning and yesterday

591
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 9: morning independently, Jared and I had a call with Ushakov,

592
00:30:56,120 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 9: who reiterated the same So, I you know, that's a

593
00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 9: better question for the intel people. But let's hope that

594
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:05,560
Speaker 9: they're not sharing.

595
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:08,120
Speaker 6: So how do you see this ending this war?

596
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 9: I don't know, Sarah. I know this that President Trump

597
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:18,640
Speaker 9: is the wrong guy to go up against. That's what

598
00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:18,960
Speaker 9: I know.

599
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:19,760
Speaker 4: All Right.

600
00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 3: We've got Jeremy Scale Scalehills standing by, and so let's

601
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 3: ask him a little bit more about, you know, how

602
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:29,960
Speaker 3: the back and forth is going, because Tel Aviv is

603
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 3: also getting absolutely hammered overnight last night.

604
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, well, Heikesa's prediction proved to be true

605
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 5: that it would be the most intense day. That's why,

606
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:43,880
Speaker 5: again the transition from Secretary of Defense to Secretary of

607
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 5: War much more accurate, came at the perfect time because

608
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 5: the entire lie of this being a defensive war only

609
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:58,000
Speaker 5: this is exclusively about national defense has been exposed in

610
00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 5: a pretty obvious, flamboyant way. And if we're supplying the

611
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:07,760
Speaker 5: intel for the Ukrainian strikes on Russia right now, we're

612
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 5: just Steve Wikoff is now having these conversations about whether

613
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 5: Russia is cooperating with Iran an intelligence sharing.

614
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:17,520
Speaker 6: It's the entire approach to.

615
00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:20,160
Speaker 5: This has been I don't need to continue saying it,

616
00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 5: but it's it's so obviously a disaster.

617
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 3: Yes, and we didn't we didn't see to your pants, Yes,

618
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:26,880
Speaker 3: totally and we did. We didn't have time to get

619
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 3: into a full block on Sudan today, but I did

620
00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:32,560
Speaker 3: want to update people. And if you've been following our

621
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:35,360
Speaker 3: coverage of it, you know that the RSF, which is

622
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 3: the kind of which has been on a kind of

623
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 3: genocidal rampage throughout Sudan, is backed to the hilt by

624
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:47,240
Speaker 3: the UAE, and the US has been being pressured to

625
00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 3: put some pressure on the ue AS to to then

626
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:53,640
Speaker 3: withdraw support from the RSF in order to bring this

627
00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 3: conflict to a final resolution. Instead, now that the US

628
00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 3: is kind of deeply indebted to the m RA, we

629
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:05,320
Speaker 3: get the opposite. The US put out a statement yesterday

630
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 3: saying that they are designating the Sudanese Muslim Brotherhood as

631
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:16,479
Speaker 3: a specially designated Global Terrorist group, which they have not

632
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:19,880
Speaker 3: done to the RSF. This is a huge boon to

633
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 3: the RSF. So basically you can imagine what happened. Haabn's

634
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:26,600
Speaker 3: e is like telling Trump like you want you want

635
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:28,040
Speaker 3: my cooperation here.

636
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 4: You like what I need from you.

637
00:33:30,160 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 3: I need your help in Sudan, get off my back

638
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:35,120
Speaker 3: about the RSF, and in fact I want you going

639
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:37,720
Speaker 3: after the rsf's enemies and Trump.

640
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 4: It's like, what is he? I don't care? Fine, whatever,

641
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:44,440
Speaker 4: So we'll have more on.

642
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:48,880
Speaker 3: That at a further data as the implications of.

643
00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:51,600
Speaker 4: The of the war kind of spill out into Sudan.

644
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 4: But let's bring in next Jeremy Scalhill.

645
00:33:57,280 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 3: Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said that last night would

646
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:03,440
Speaker 3: be the most ferocious attacks by the US and Israel

647
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 3: on Iran. But on the other side, the Golf States

648
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:11,960
Speaker 3: and Israel are facing increasingly difficult nights as well. We're

649
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 3: getting very little footage either either from phones or from

650
00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:21,040
Speaker 3: news broadcasts, as Israel and the Golf States are clamping

651
00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:23,000
Speaker 3: down on the ability of the public or the media

652
00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:25,560
Speaker 3: to share what's going on. But we did get an

653
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:28,719
Speaker 3: interesting kind of clip through Fox News. It kind of

654
00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:30,959
Speaker 3: gives you an indication of both of those elements. Let's

655
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:31,720
Speaker 3: roll this one.

656
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:33,400
Speaker 6: We have sirens in Tel Aviv.

657
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:36,239
Speaker 9: Let's go back to correspondent Nate Foy, who is on

658
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:36,839
Speaker 9: the ground there.

659
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:37,560
Speaker 6: High Nate.

660
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:40,000
Speaker 4: Hey, Martha.

661
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:41,959
Speaker 12: So yeah, as you can hear the sirens are going

662
00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:44,240
Speaker 12: off here in Tel Aviv, something that we've seen several

663
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:47,480
Speaker 12: times throughout the entire day, and what we could see

664
00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:51,680
Speaker 12: here momentarily are interceptor missiles fired off. We have seen

665
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 12: it right over my shoulders several different times. Again, Iran

666
00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:59,440
Speaker 12: continues to show an offensive capability launching missiles.

667
00:34:59,160 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 4: At central is.

668
00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:04,440
Speaker 12: We have one interceptor over my shoulder right now. We

669
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:07,880
Speaker 12: can't show you because we can't show landmarks, Martha. But

670
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 12: something that has really changed here over the past couple

671
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:14,480
Speaker 12: of days is the use of these cluster munitions by

672
00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:18,480
Speaker 12: Iran where the warhead breaks up into several different bomblets.

673
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:21,440
Speaker 12: And that's really important because not only does it spread

674
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:24,280
Speaker 12: the damage, but it makes it more difficult to defend

675
00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:25,640
Speaker 12: against joining us.

676
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:29,120
Speaker 3: Now, is my colleague over at drop site, Jeremy Scahill.

677
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:32,080
Speaker 4: Jeremy, thanks for being here, Thanks for having me.

678
00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:34,000
Speaker 6: I'm going to play the role of Tim Dillon in

679
00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:34,520
Speaker 6: the segment.

680
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:36,960
Speaker 4: Yes, Jeremy and I were on Tim Dillon, Do not

681
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:40,759
Speaker 4: miss Do not miss that. There are a lot of

682
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:42,320
Speaker 4: jokes we can make about that. We're just going to

683
00:35:42,360 --> 00:35:42,879
Speaker 4: skip those.

684
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:46,480
Speaker 3: So I want to put up the article that you

685
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:51,360
Speaker 3: wrote with Moz yesterday, the headline here Trump might want

686
00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:56,040
Speaker 3: to end the war, Iran won't do it on his terms.

687
00:35:57,719 --> 00:36:03,080
Speaker 3: So what are what are you guys hearing from Iranian

688
00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:08,400
Speaker 3: officials about the overtures, whether they actually exist, from the

689
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:12,320
Speaker 3: United States, and how Iranian officials are feeling.

690
00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:15,439
Speaker 4: About kind of re engaging them.

691
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:18,920
Speaker 13: Well, I mean, first on this issue of you know,

692
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 13: negotiations or talk of a ceasefire, my understanding from speaking

693
00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:26,279
Speaker 13: to senior Iranian officials is that there have been periodic

694
00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 13: periods of outreach from third countries to Iran asking about

695
00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:37,640
Speaker 13: the possibility of a resumption of negotiations, and the Iranians

696
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:41,600
Speaker 13: have rejected those. The United States, you know, Trump and

697
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 13: other officials have said, oh, the Iranians are desperate to

698
00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 13: talk to us, they want this to end. Iran is

699
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:50,799
Speaker 13: saying that's a total lie, and that in fact, it

700
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:54,000
Speaker 13: seems to be the United States that, through intermediaries, is

701
00:36:54,040 --> 00:36:57,160
Speaker 13: trying to gauge Iran's interest. You see, what we're engaged

702
00:36:57,200 --> 00:37:00,480
Speaker 13: in here, or what we're watching, is asymmetric war. You

703
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 13: have a much more powerful, larger attack force. The United

704
00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:07,480
Speaker 13: States and Israel and there's no doubt they have massive

705
00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:11,960
Speaker 13: military superiority, and the so called war Secretary, Pete Hegseth,

706
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:15,080
Speaker 13: loves to get up every day like a drinking buddy,

707
00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:18,480
Speaker 13: bragging about his exploits from the last weekend and talk

708
00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:21,360
Speaker 13: about everything that they're bombing and how they're decimating Iran.

709
00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:24,000
Speaker 13: And they're trying to convince the public that just by

710
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:27,360
Speaker 13: showing cool stuff blowing up that somehow that means that

711
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:30,399
Speaker 13: the United States and Israel are decisively winning this war.

712
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:34,160
Speaker 13: But the reality is that for the less powerful military

713
00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:36,840
Speaker 13: force to achieve quote unquote victory, they don't have to

714
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 13: win militarily. They have to elevate the costs to such

715
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:44,000
Speaker 13: a degree that the stronger attacking party decides that it's

716
00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:46,400
Speaker 13: not worth it anymore. But it's not just that, and

717
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:49,480
Speaker 13: this is what we're hearing from Iranian officials. Iran doesn't

718
00:37:49,520 --> 00:37:52,520
Speaker 13: just want to stop the military onslaught by Israel and

719
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 13: the United States. Iran wants to keep fighting so that

720
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:59,680
Speaker 13: the entire world, including the United States, understands that if

721
00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:01,320
Speaker 13: you think, I think you can do this to Iran

722
00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 13: every four months, pretend you're negotiating, and then do surprise

723
00:38:05,200 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 13: attacks that you have another thing coming. And so that's

724
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:11,040
Speaker 13: why the Iranians, now, in response to Trump making threats

725
00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:13,400
Speaker 13: about the Strait of Hormuz, have started to be more

726
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 13: aggressive IRGC naval vessels. Trump said that their entire navy

727
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:20,280
Speaker 13: was wiped out. Well, we now understand that the IRGC

728
00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:22,680
Speaker 13: navy is giving warnings to ship and if the ships

729
00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:25,320
Speaker 13: and if they don't heed them, they're stopping or attacking

730
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:27,319
Speaker 13: those ships. So what we're seeing here is that the

731
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:31,440
Speaker 13: Iranians are not just trying to inflict damage or continue

732
00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:34,719
Speaker 13: to strike in Tel Aviv and elsewhere in Israel, or

733
00:38:34,760 --> 00:38:37,800
Speaker 13: to continue to strike US military bases in the region.

734
00:38:38,080 --> 00:38:40,880
Speaker 13: They're also saying we're not interested in a ceasefire on

735
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:45,360
Speaker 13: Trump's terms, and we think that they dramatically estimated Iran's

736
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:49,520
Speaker 13: will to fight, overestimated the potential for a domestic uprising,

737
00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:54,799
Speaker 13: and dramatically underestimated Iran's weapons capacity. The Iranians are going

738
00:38:54,800 --> 00:38:56,959
Speaker 13: into what they call a second phase of this war.

739
00:38:57,080 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 13: They feel they have softened US defenses in the region,

740
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 13: they don't need to fire as many rockets, and that

741
00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:06,320
Speaker 13: they can continue to do damage with more powerful ballistic missiles,

742
00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:09,200
Speaker 13: but with less frequent or less intense attacks.

743
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:12,440
Speaker 5: And obviously the calculus of sharing intelligence that led to

744
00:39:12,560 --> 00:39:15,319
Speaker 5: the killing of Hamani with Israel was that you would

745
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:17,960
Speaker 5: decimate the command structure. I mean, we've heard people talking

746
00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:20,640
Speaker 5: about this in the government right now, and thus create

747
00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:22,759
Speaker 5: a mess and a power vacuum that's easier for the

748
00:39:22,840 --> 00:39:26,640
Speaker 5: Kurds or whoever else to recipology to step into and

749
00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 5: change the regime or alter the regime, as they discovered

750
00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:34,680
Speaker 5: they could do with Duci Rodriguez in Venezuela. So, jeremy,

751
00:39:34,760 --> 00:39:38,759
Speaker 5: what is the command structure like right now? In terms

752
00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:42,520
Speaker 5: of you having these conversations with officials about how they

753
00:39:42,920 --> 00:39:48,359
Speaker 5: see their strategy. Did the United States severely hamper their

754
00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:52,880
Speaker 5: ability to organize as the IRGC or as the Iroonian government?

755
00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:54,920
Speaker 6: What does that look like right now?

756
00:39:54,920 --> 00:40:00,440
Speaker 5: What is the sort of coherence organization strategically look like

757
00:40:00,520 --> 00:40:04,520
Speaker 5: of the Iranian government as they are fighting back against

758
00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:05,360
Speaker 5: the United States.

759
00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:09,160
Speaker 13: Well, you know, the United States has not fought a

760
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:12,200
Speaker 13: modern nation state since really the end of World War

761
00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:15,319
Speaker 13: II or the Korean War, And so I think there

762
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:20,200
Speaker 13: was a radical underestimation of how solid Iran's bureaucratic structure is,

763
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:23,399
Speaker 13: both on a civilian level and a military level. I mean,

764
00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:27,120
Speaker 13: this is a government that has been building horizontal institutions

765
00:40:27,120 --> 00:40:30,680
Speaker 13: since the nineteen seventy nine Islamic Revolution. And in fact,

766
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:34,800
Speaker 13: we reported even before the bombs started hitting on February

767
00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:37,400
Speaker 13: twenty eighth, for weeks ahead of this, we were saying

768
00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:41,480
Speaker 13: that the Iranians were very clear that they expected decapitation

769
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 13: strikes the attempt. They expected that there would be an

770
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:48,680
Speaker 13: attempt that was likely to succeed in assassinating the Supreme

771
00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:52,320
Speaker 13: Leader and the rest of the country's official top leadership,

772
00:40:52,360 --> 00:40:55,360
Speaker 13: and so they created what they called the Mosaic Defense System.

773
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 13: So in advance of the United States attacking Emily, what

774
00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:01,680
Speaker 13: Iran did was they started to delegate further down the

775
00:41:01,760 --> 00:41:05,640
Speaker 13: chain of command authority to launch attacks, and they had

776
00:41:05,920 --> 00:41:09,040
Speaker 13: a predetermined bank of targets throughout the Persian Gulf and

777
00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:12,440
Speaker 13: in Israel that if the United States and Israel attacked,

778
00:41:12,680 --> 00:41:15,080
Speaker 13: they would be activated. And so what I'm told by

779
00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:18,239
Speaker 13: Iranian officials who have access to the planning process in

780
00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 13: Iran is that in those first seventy two hours or

781
00:41:21,080 --> 00:41:25,319
Speaker 13: so after the US and Israel began attacking, things were

782
00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:29,480
Speaker 13: essentially on autopilot. When it came to the IRGC's Aerospace division,

783
00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:33,320
Speaker 13: which is overseeing the launching of ballistic missiles and attack drones,

784
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:35,800
Speaker 13: of which Iran has many because they have their own

785
00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:39,880
Speaker 13: domestic industry. And then once there was a sort of

786
00:41:39,920 --> 00:41:42,799
Speaker 13: clearing of the dust that the reality was a full

787
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:46,080
Speaker 13: scale existential war was on. That's how Iran saw it,

788
00:41:46,200 --> 00:41:50,719
Speaker 13: they started to then return to a more centralized strategic

789
00:41:50,760 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 13: operation and that allowed them to sort of call audibles.

790
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:56,720
Speaker 13: I guess you could say they would assess the damage

791
00:41:56,719 --> 00:41:59,560
Speaker 13: that was being done in places like Kuwait, in Qatar,

792
00:42:00,160 --> 00:42:03,880
Speaker 13: United Arab Emirates, in Saudi Arabia. They knocked out a

793
00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:08,000
Speaker 13: very expensive, vital piece of radar equipment in Jordan, another

794
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 13: one in the Persian Gulf that quite significantly damaged the

795
00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:14,640
Speaker 13: ability of the United States to have early warning detection.

796
00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:17,239
Speaker 13: They took out two of the most important radars that

797
00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:21,399
Speaker 13: are essentially the kind of artery of the defensive operations

798
00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:24,440
Speaker 13: for the United States in the region, and by incapacitating

799
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:27,799
Speaker 13: those you started to see more successful hits that set in.

800
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:31,120
Speaker 13: On a political level, I think that the you know,

801
00:42:31,160 --> 00:42:35,040
Speaker 13: the United States messaging on this has has evolved. Trump

802
00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:39,319
Speaker 13: has gone from saying rise up dear Iranian people to saying, yeah,

803
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 13: I would take a religious leader. I mean, it could

804
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:44,840
Speaker 13: be somebody who's internal and an eternal was the phrase

805
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:47,640
Speaker 13: that he used the other day. And so I think,

806
00:42:47,760 --> 00:42:50,840
Speaker 13: you know, a little bit of reality pie is being

807
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:53,320
Speaker 13: served right now to the United States. That's not to

808
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:56,120
Speaker 13: say that they're not doing massive damage to Iran on

809
00:42:56,160 --> 00:42:59,480
Speaker 13: a military level and on a civilian level, but it

810
00:42:59,480 --> 00:43:03,640
Speaker 13: does seem like their calculations were way way off.

811
00:43:04,320 --> 00:43:04,520
Speaker 4: Yeah.

812
00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:07,040
Speaker 3: One thing that has struck me about this is that

813
00:43:07,080 --> 00:43:11,120
Speaker 3: despite the fact that the US spends billions upon billions

814
00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:14,839
Speaker 3: of dollars on intelligence and analysis, and also that the

815
00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:17,680
Speaker 3: US has, you know, the I would assume the most

816
00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:21,080
Speaker 3: well funded kind of media apparatus in the world.

817
00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:22,360
Speaker 4: It's certainly in the Western world.

818
00:43:23,000 --> 00:43:26,680
Speaker 3: They seemed to have been caught off guard by almost

819
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:31,200
Speaker 3: everything that has that has come along, even though Emily wasn't,

820
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:35,840
Speaker 3: for instance, like you know, you knew that even like

821
00:43:36,000 --> 00:43:39,600
Speaker 3: Emily does not have a multi billion dollar intelligence and

822
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:44,480
Speaker 3: analysis operation, but you knew that Iran's plan was to

823
00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:47,080
Speaker 3: turn this into a regional war and to and was

824
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:49,160
Speaker 3: to close the straight up hormoes because they said so

825
00:43:49,840 --> 00:43:56,000
Speaker 3: publicly and Jeremy reported that, you know, repeatedly to the

826
00:43:56,160 --> 00:43:58,480
Speaker 3: question of the Gulf states. I want to ask you

827
00:43:58,520 --> 00:44:02,440
Speaker 3: about your other other piece that you had recently.

828
00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:04,319
Speaker 4: We can put up what is a C two.

829
00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:07,440
Speaker 3: This goes to the question, so you're you're reporting publicly

830
00:44:07,480 --> 00:44:10,080
Speaker 3: and the US is US government is welcome to read

831
00:44:10,120 --> 00:44:12,279
Speaker 3: the article or not if you know they want to

832
00:44:12,320 --> 00:44:14,600
Speaker 3: have any idea. What's going on is that Iran way's

833
00:44:14,640 --> 00:44:17,920
Speaker 3: tactical shift in purging golf strikes while intensifying attacks on Israel.

834
00:44:18,719 --> 00:44:23,160
Speaker 3: So you reported here that the the Iranian assessment was

835
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:26,320
Speaker 3: that they had done that in some ways.

836
00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:27,960
Speaker 4: I don't want to put words in their mouth.

837
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:30,160
Speaker 3: You know, mission was accomplished in a lot of these

838
00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:33,759
Speaker 3: golf states, that they had sufficiently deterred and degraded the

839
00:44:34,400 --> 00:44:38,560
Speaker 3: US capacity there, but that there were two countries, two

840
00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:41,040
Speaker 3: golf countries that were that assessment was not met and

841
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:44,000
Speaker 3: they were going to continue hitting them. But otherwise they

842
00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:46,560
Speaker 3: were going to back off some of these golf countries

843
00:44:46,600 --> 00:44:50,880
Speaker 3: and focused more on kind of pumbling pumbling Israel and

844
00:44:50,960 --> 00:44:55,040
Speaker 3: on you know, restricting traffic through the straight up from moves.

845
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:58,320
Speaker 3: Since you've reported that, what have you seen kind of unfolded.

846
00:44:58,400 --> 00:45:00,359
Speaker 3: Is there anything you can add to that from your

847
00:45:00,360 --> 00:45:02,600
Speaker 3: sources since then, you.

848
00:45:02,600 --> 00:45:06,280
Speaker 13: Know, the other day also the Iranian Foreign minister retweeted

849
00:45:06,840 --> 00:45:12,239
Speaker 13: scentcom picture showing missiles being launched from the desert of

850
00:45:12,280 --> 00:45:14,880
Speaker 13: one of those countries, and he said, thank you for

851
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:18,160
Speaker 13: confirming that you are using the territory of some of

852
00:45:18,200 --> 00:45:20,360
Speaker 13: these countries that claim that they weren't going to allow

853
00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:22,160
Speaker 13: their territory.

854
00:45:21,640 --> 00:45:22,280
Speaker 4: To be used.

855
00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:25,760
Speaker 13: We've seen a pretty substantial decrease though, in the number

856
00:45:26,200 --> 00:45:29,120
Speaker 13: and volume of strikes that have been unleashed against the

857
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:33,120
Speaker 13: Persian Gulf. Yes, they're still happening, particularly in Bahrain, which

858
00:45:33,160 --> 00:45:35,160
Speaker 13: I had guessed was one of the countries that the

859
00:45:35,200 --> 00:45:37,719
Speaker 13: Iranians were referring to when they told me that it's

860
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 13: the headquarters of the fifth Fleet, and is you know,

861
00:45:41,080 --> 00:45:44,520
Speaker 13: one of the main countries whose infrastructure is being used

862
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:47,560
Speaker 13: to launch these attacks from both its coastal waters and

863
00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:51,240
Speaker 13: its territory. And you do still see some strikes happening,

864
00:45:51,280 --> 00:45:53,880
Speaker 13: but you know, my sense from speaking to Iranian officials

865
00:45:53,920 --> 00:45:55,839
Speaker 13: is that they feel that they've sent a message, that

866
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:58,120
Speaker 13: they've softened it, that they're going to require the US

867
00:45:58,239 --> 00:46:03,600
Speaker 13: to replenish. It's interceptors. In fact, we saw images yesterday

868
00:46:03,800 --> 00:46:06,480
Speaker 13: of the US actually moving some of its defensive missile

869
00:46:06,480 --> 00:46:10,279
Speaker 13: capacity away from South Korea to try to transfer it

870
00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:11,799
Speaker 13: to the Middle East to try to make up for

871
00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:14,320
Speaker 13: the damage that the Iranians had done. I think also

872
00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:18,080
Speaker 13: there is a propaganda component to this in the information war,

873
00:46:18,360 --> 00:46:21,160
Speaker 13: which is that I think that these Gulf states that

874
00:46:21,200 --> 00:46:23,960
Speaker 13: have cozied up to Trump, that have lucrative business deals

875
00:46:23,960 --> 00:46:26,799
Speaker 13: with the Trump family, including Jared Kushner, I think they

876
00:46:26,800 --> 00:46:31,319
Speaker 13: were totally and completely shocked by what happened. I think

877
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:33,160
Speaker 13: they knew there were going to be attacks. I think

878
00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:37,040
Speaker 13: that they had dramatically underestimated the capacity of Iran to

879
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:40,279
Speaker 13: just cause panic and terror to rip through their societies,

880
00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:44,360
Speaker 13: and they're watching as the United States has effectively just

881
00:46:44,480 --> 00:46:48,839
Speaker 13: allowed it to happen, while pouring and emergency rushing as

882
00:46:48,840 --> 00:46:53,920
Speaker 13: many interceptors and other defensive missile capacity to Israel as possible.

883
00:46:54,440 --> 00:46:58,560
Speaker 13: There is I understand, backdoor diplomacy going on between these

884
00:46:58,560 --> 00:47:01,919
Speaker 13: golf countries and Iran. You know, Pete Hegsath said something

885
00:47:02,000 --> 00:47:04,680
Speaker 13: yesterday that I've heard from officials in some of these

886
00:47:04,680 --> 00:47:08,360
Speaker 13: golf countries just caused, you know, fury which is he

887
00:47:08,560 --> 00:47:12,759
Speaker 13: said that Golf countries, far from running away from this,

888
00:47:13,160 --> 00:47:15,920
Speaker 13: are now going on the offensive. And he said, and

889
00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:20,239
Speaker 13: they're giving us access rights and overflight rights. This was

890
00:47:20,239 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 13: from the beginning, even before February twenty eighth and the

891
00:47:23,080 --> 00:47:25,720
Speaker 13: start of this, all these countries were yelling to anyone

892
00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:29,120
Speaker 13: who would listen, no access rights, no use of our territory,

893
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:31,759
Speaker 13: no overflight, no use of our airspace. And then Pete

894
00:47:31,800 --> 00:47:34,760
Speaker 13: Heigseth yesterday is boasting and he says, oh, no, no, no, no, no.

895
00:47:35,280 --> 00:47:37,799
Speaker 13: Iran's actions in the region have caused them to go

896
00:47:37,840 --> 00:47:40,040
Speaker 13: to our side. This is the total opposite of the

897
00:47:40,080 --> 00:47:43,120
Speaker 13: messaging coming from the Golf Yes, the Golf States are

898
00:47:43,120 --> 00:47:46,720
Speaker 13: portraying Iran as the aggressor, and they're saying almost nothing

899
00:47:46,880 --> 00:47:50,600
Speaker 13: whatsoever critical of the United States or Israel. That's becoming

900
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:53,480
Speaker 13: a problem among their domestic population. And so by if

901
00:47:53,480 --> 00:47:56,759
Speaker 13: Iran is basically able to say to those countries, look,

902
00:47:57,000 --> 00:48:00,640
Speaker 13: we understand that there was some civilians that was hit,

903
00:48:00,719 --> 00:48:04,320
Speaker 13: and we apologize for that, but overwhelmingly we've been attacking

904
00:48:04,360 --> 00:48:07,520
Speaker 13: the US military infrastructure in your country. I think the

905
00:48:07,560 --> 00:48:11,440
Speaker 13: Iranians are calculating that the public relations component of this

906
00:48:11,760 --> 00:48:15,120
Speaker 13: the killing of civilians, the idea that you're serving Zionism

907
00:48:15,160 --> 00:48:18,719
Speaker 13: by supporting this in Arab Muslim countries, that they're going

908
00:48:18,760 --> 00:48:20,799
Speaker 13: to sort of be able to drive the wedge that

909
00:48:20,840 --> 00:48:23,440
Speaker 13: the US and Israel thought they were succeeding and driving

910
00:48:23,440 --> 00:48:25,200
Speaker 13: at the beginning of this. That's what I think is

911
00:48:25,200 --> 00:48:25,880
Speaker 13: the strategy.

912
00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:29,000
Speaker 6: In part I want to get your reaction to some updates.

913
00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:32,560
Speaker 5: Here, Jeremy, we can put this next piece of video

914
00:48:32,920 --> 00:48:36,560
Speaker 5: up on the screen. This is C three IDEF says

915
00:48:36,560 --> 00:48:40,080
Speaker 5: it Eliminited hasbla commander and an airstrike on the town

916
00:48:41,040 --> 00:48:44,680
Speaker 5: in southern Lebanon, and he had already taken command after

917
00:48:44,719 --> 00:48:47,200
Speaker 5: his predecessor was killed in twenty twenty four, according to

918
00:48:47,280 --> 00:48:49,759
Speaker 5: the military. This is what Open Source Intel posted on

919
00:48:50,640 --> 00:48:53,960
Speaker 5: x Also, we have video here that drop Site posted.

920
00:48:54,080 --> 00:48:57,280
Speaker 5: This is from the Iranian side. This is our next

921
00:48:57,320 --> 00:49:00,440
Speaker 5: element we can put up on the screen. This is

922
00:49:00,520 --> 00:49:05,200
Speaker 5: video released by Iranian media of missiles being launched during

923
00:49:05,280 --> 00:49:09,480
Speaker 5: the thirty sixth wave of Operation True Promise for Drop Site.

924
00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:11,760
Speaker 5: Rights Around once again warned that US and Israeli attacks

925
00:49:11,800 --> 00:49:15,279
Speaker 5: on Iranian infrastructure and civilians quote will not go unanswered.

926
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:17,560
Speaker 5: Now their days and nights are limited to science, sounds,

927
00:49:17,600 --> 00:49:18,480
Speaker 5: fleeing and shelters.

928
00:49:18,520 --> 00:49:20,239
Speaker 6: We will not let them go.

929
00:49:20,880 --> 00:49:23,759
Speaker 5: So jeremy all of this in what roughly the last

930
00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:27,080
Speaker 5: twenty four hours. What does this tell us about As

931
00:49:28,000 --> 00:49:31,200
Speaker 5: we're starting to see chatter from Republicans about just you know,

932
00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:35,440
Speaker 5: going on the ship doing the mission accomplished banner more

933
00:49:35,480 --> 00:49:38,920
Speaker 5: like an arrested development sketch. Actually, but they're ready to

934
00:49:38,960 --> 00:49:41,360
Speaker 5: do it, what does that all tell us about the

935
00:49:41,760 --> 00:49:45,000
Speaker 5: plausibility or their ability to sell that to the public.

936
00:49:45,840 --> 00:49:49,600
Speaker 13: Yeah, I mean, this is this is quite rapidly becoming

937
00:49:49,600 --> 00:49:53,560
Speaker 13: a quagmire for Trump on multiple fronts. But also Emily,

938
00:49:53,640 --> 00:49:58,800
Speaker 13: remember Israel assassinated the secretary general of Hesbalah, Hassam Nosrala.

939
00:49:58,880 --> 00:50:02,080
Speaker 13: They did the pager bomb lot. Since the November twenty

940
00:50:02,160 --> 00:50:05,000
Speaker 13: twenty four so called ceasefire, Israel has just continued to

941
00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:10,320
Speaker 13: bomb Lebanon and claiming that they're even further degrading Hesbela's capacity.

942
00:50:10,360 --> 00:50:12,440
Speaker 13: I mean, Israel and the United States basically said that

943
00:50:12,560 --> 00:50:18,480
Speaker 13: Hesbelah was largely incapacitated and massively damaged. When Hesbelah, you know,

944
00:50:18,640 --> 00:50:22,920
Speaker 13: last week, entered this war, Israel was completely caught off

945
00:50:22,960 --> 00:50:26,560
Speaker 13: guard by how ferocious the attacks were, and how intact

946
00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:30,920
Speaker 13: Hesbela's military capacity actually seems to be in some ways.

947
00:50:31,400 --> 00:50:34,440
Speaker 13: You know, Hesbela's entry into this pose is the wild

948
00:50:34,560 --> 00:50:37,680
Speaker 13: card because they have the high ground. They've already inflicted

949
00:50:37,760 --> 00:50:41,719
Speaker 13: casualties on the Israelis. They are repelling attempted Israeli invasions

950
00:50:41,760 --> 00:50:44,480
Speaker 13: right now. It's becoming a very serious problem. Israel has

951
00:50:44,520 --> 00:50:48,920
Speaker 13: had to evacuate settlers and other Israelis from the northern

952
00:50:49,000 --> 00:50:52,400
Speaker 13: border with Lebanon. It's becoming a very real problem, and

953
00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:55,240
Speaker 13: Iran saying, you know, we have ten times the targets.

954
00:50:55,560 --> 00:50:58,000
Speaker 13: What Iran has said from the beginning is that they're

955
00:50:58,080 --> 00:51:02,799
Speaker 13: going to respond proportionately, meaning that if their civilian infrastructure

956
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:05,120
Speaker 13: starts to get targeted by the US and Israel, then

957
00:51:05,120 --> 00:51:08,400
Speaker 13: they're going to go after the similar infrastructure in the region.

958
00:51:08,680 --> 00:51:11,360
Speaker 13: There's been talk of them also going after tech companies

959
00:51:11,440 --> 00:51:14,560
Speaker 13: that are servicing this war, like Google and others and

960
00:51:14,680 --> 00:51:17,640
Speaker 13: some of their outposts in the region. And so you know,

961
00:51:17,719 --> 00:51:22,239
Speaker 13: we've seen desalination plants hit in Iranian territory, the Iranians

962
00:51:22,320 --> 00:51:25,840
Speaker 13: then responding in kind. You could see a massive expansion

963
00:51:25,920 --> 00:51:29,080
Speaker 13: of this and if the war drags on, and Iran

964
00:51:29,200 --> 00:51:31,920
Speaker 13: continues to show that it's not just you know, sort

965
00:51:31,960 --> 00:51:36,000
Speaker 13: of propaganda their claims about their enduring capacity. It's going

966
00:51:36,040 --> 00:51:39,000
Speaker 13: to tilt very heavily in favor of the smaller side.

967
00:51:39,440 --> 00:51:43,000
Speaker 13: It's ultimately what caused the US to withdraw from Afghanistan.

968
00:51:43,280 --> 00:51:46,680
Speaker 13: It's why the United States militarily lost the Vietnam War.

969
00:51:47,000 --> 00:51:48,840
Speaker 13: It's also to an extent, why the US had to

970
00:51:48,920 --> 00:51:52,440
Speaker 13: leave Iraq, which is that if you're fighting insurgents in

971
00:51:52,560 --> 00:51:55,040
Speaker 13: a guerrilla war and it goes on, it becomes a

972
00:51:55,080 --> 00:51:57,960
Speaker 13: war of attrition, and your own population starts to see

973
00:51:58,000 --> 00:52:01,200
Speaker 13: body bags and tin coffins coming home home, and economic

974
00:52:01,320 --> 00:52:04,160
Speaker 13: impact starts hitting ordinary Americans at the pump, at the

975
00:52:04,200 --> 00:52:06,719
Speaker 13: grocery store, and then all of your friends, and in

976
00:52:06,800 --> 00:52:09,080
Speaker 13: the case of Trump, including those that are linked up

977
00:52:09,120 --> 00:52:11,760
Speaker 13: with your son in law's business and other family business stuff.

978
00:52:11,960 --> 00:52:15,240
Speaker 13: If they start saying you are ruining the entire project,

979
00:52:15,640 --> 00:52:17,800
Speaker 13: they're in big trouble. And so then that's why the

980
00:52:17,840 --> 00:52:20,960
Speaker 13: Iranians say, this doesn't end on Trump's terms, it ends

981
00:52:21,040 --> 00:52:23,960
Speaker 13: on ours, and the Iranians are obsessed with this idea.

982
00:52:24,280 --> 00:52:26,560
Speaker 13: We will not allow them to think that they can

983
00:52:26,800 --> 00:52:30,399
Speaker 13: end this without a clear guarantee that they don't believe

984
00:52:30,440 --> 00:52:32,400
Speaker 13: they can keep doing this every four months. And the

985
00:52:32,480 --> 00:52:34,880
Speaker 13: only way the Iranians believe they can do that is

986
00:52:34,960 --> 00:52:37,960
Speaker 13: by sending a message to the region and to Americans,

987
00:52:38,160 --> 00:52:42,280
Speaker 13: ordinary Americans that when you do this, everything becomes miserable

988
00:52:42,320 --> 00:52:43,320
Speaker 13: and more expensive for you.

989
00:52:44,160 --> 00:52:48,279
Speaker 3: So, from your conversations with them, have they made any

990
00:52:48,280 --> 00:52:51,719
Speaker 3: attempts to kind of define what that looks like or

991
00:52:51,800 --> 00:52:53,520
Speaker 3: is it more of a we'll know it when we

992
00:52:53,640 --> 00:52:56,120
Speaker 3: see it, like, how do they How do Irani officials

993
00:52:56,160 --> 00:53:01,120
Speaker 3: assess that Israel and the US governments have paid a

994
00:53:01,239 --> 00:53:04,680
Speaker 3: sufficient cost such that they will not want to pay

995
00:53:04,719 --> 00:53:05,680
Speaker 3: it easily again?

996
00:53:06,719 --> 00:53:07,799
Speaker 4: You know, they're they're there.

997
00:53:09,040 --> 00:53:12,480
Speaker 13: It's interesting because I have talked about this, and you know,

998
00:53:12,560 --> 00:53:14,560
Speaker 13: at the very beginning of it, there was a lot

999
00:53:14,600 --> 00:53:17,680
Speaker 13: of disdain for the role of the United Nations, and

1000
00:53:17,760 --> 00:53:20,839
Speaker 13: they pointed to, uh, this is Iranian officials, and they

1001
00:53:20,880 --> 00:53:23,360
Speaker 13: pointed to what happened with Trump's so called Board of

1002
00:53:23,440 --> 00:53:25,719
Speaker 13: Peace in Gaza and saying that, you know, there is

1003
00:53:25,840 --> 00:53:27,880
Speaker 13: no actual international guaranterer of.

1004
00:53:27,920 --> 00:53:28,239
Speaker 11: All of this.

1005
00:53:28,680 --> 00:53:31,360
Speaker 13: In recent days, I've been starting to hear Iranian officials

1006
00:53:31,440 --> 00:53:35,680
Speaker 13: talk more about a United Nations Security Council process and

1007
00:53:35,840 --> 00:53:39,759
Speaker 13: other international guarantees. You know, China also doesn't like this.

1008
00:53:39,880 --> 00:53:43,240
Speaker 13: Trump's gonna scheduled to go to China soon. Russia, of course,

1009
00:53:43,440 --> 00:53:47,239
Speaker 13: is certainly assisting Iran with intelligence and maybe in other

1010
00:53:47,320 --> 00:53:50,640
Speaker 13: ways as well. I think the the Iranians don't want

1011
00:53:50,680 --> 00:53:53,759
Speaker 13: to replay what they saw as the Gaza scenario where

1012
00:53:53,840 --> 00:53:56,840
Speaker 13: Trump creates this sort of fictitious path and it allows

1013
00:53:56,920 --> 00:54:00,120
Speaker 13: a colonial agenda to remain in place. So i'd I

1014
00:54:00,120 --> 00:54:03,359
Speaker 13: don't think that there's any reasonable guarantee in a world

1015
00:54:03,440 --> 00:54:05,600
Speaker 13: where the US is acting as it is under Trump,

1016
00:54:05,640 --> 00:54:08,560
Speaker 13: where the Iranians can say this agreement is worth something.

1017
00:54:08,800 --> 00:54:11,200
Speaker 13: I think what they're more looking at is inflicting enough

1018
00:54:11,320 --> 00:54:14,760
Speaker 13: pain and damage so that that is the motivating factor

1019
00:54:14,880 --> 00:54:17,719
Speaker 13: to any political framework that they will want to also

1020
00:54:17,880 --> 00:54:22,319
Speaker 13: include long term guarantees and a long term, established internationally

1021
00:54:22,480 --> 00:54:25,760
Speaker 13: certified agreement. But they're not going to accept the ceasefire

1022
00:54:25,920 --> 00:54:27,440
Speaker 13: like they did in the so called twelve Day war

1023
00:54:27,520 --> 00:54:29,879
Speaker 13: in June, which, by the way, US and Israel asked

1024
00:54:29,920 --> 00:54:30,600
Speaker 13: for not Iran.

1025
00:54:31,040 --> 00:54:34,640
Speaker 3: All right, well, interesting stuff, and again Jeremy, her reporting

1026
00:54:34,640 --> 00:54:37,279
Speaker 3: has been so helpful throughout this If you really wanted

1027
00:54:37,320 --> 00:54:41,200
Speaker 3: to know what Iranian officials were thinking, which you would

1028
00:54:41,239 --> 00:54:43,480
Speaker 3: think if you're an American war planner, you would want

1029
00:54:43,520 --> 00:54:47,240
Speaker 3: to know that you'd be wrong, but be a fair assumption,

1030
00:54:47,920 --> 00:54:49,840
Speaker 3: you'd want to know what the other side is thinking.

1031
00:54:50,400 --> 00:54:52,640
Speaker 3: Your reporting would be the place to find it. Drop

1032
00:54:52,719 --> 00:54:55,799
Speaker 3: site news dot com, where you can find the latest piece.

1033
00:54:56,080 --> 00:54:57,799
Speaker 3: Thanks so much for joining us.

1034
00:54:58,360 --> 00:55:02,520
Speaker 13: Thank you guys you want to put take