Speaker 1: Hello, everybody, Welcome into the cycle.
Speaker 2: I am Ryan Warmley, joined today by Mike Mayor. Mayor
Speaker 2: we're talking to baseball. It's the middle of May. I
Speaker 2: don't know have anything specific to bring up.
Speaker 3: How's it going well? Then it would be a great show.
Speaker 3: It'll be a short show if you don't have anything
Speaker 3: to do with it to talk about. I wish my
Speaker 3: Red Sox were better. They just got swept by the Tigers.
Speaker 3: That's not great, especially for a team that could use
Speaker 3: a few wins. And my fantasy teams are all over
Speaker 3: the place. Some are doing really well, some are doing
Speaker 3: really really poorly, and hopefully everyone out there's teams are
Speaker 3: doing much better than minor.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're not here to talk about how our real
Speaker 2: life teams are doing. As a Red Sox fan and
Speaker 2: an Orioles fan, there's nothing I want to talk about
Speaker 2: less than the Baltimore Orioles at this very moment, although
Speaker 2: I'm going to talk about some of them in today's show.
Speaker 2: You talk about your fantasy teams. Some doing well, so
Speaker 2: I'm doing very poorly. Speaking of doing very poorly, let's
Speaker 2: dive right into rounding the bases, and we're starting off
Speaker 2: with taking the l who can we admit we were
Speaker 2: about this year. We are now over a month and
Speaker 2: a half into the season, Mayor it is time that
Speaker 2: we can start saying, Okay, this is no longer strictly
Speaker 2: a small sample size. Obviously to a degree it is.
Speaker 2: You know, baseball is a long term, large sample sized sport.
Speaker 1: But you know, we're getting to that point where we
Speaker 1: can really kind of start.
Speaker 2: To reevaluate what we were thinking about before the season
Speaker 2: and say like this this is the new normal for
Speaker 2: some of these guys, or at the very least something
Speaker 2: we need to be reacting to and thinking deeper about
Speaker 2: for me. And I'll just bring it up first because
Speaker 2: I talked about the Orioles Adley Rushman. I was extraordinarily
Speaker 2: high on him as the best catcher in fantasy coming
Speaker 2: into the season. I thought we were in line for
Speaker 2: a very locked in Adley season where he was going
Speaker 2: to take the leave and be like not just the
Speaker 2: best catcher, but like clearly the best catcher in fantasy
Speaker 2: and one of the best overall hitters in fantasy, worth
Speaker 2: a top fifty pick in drafts. I was very, very
Speaker 2: into Adley this.
Speaker 1: Year, and.
Speaker 2: You know, I don't want to like try and justify
Speaker 2: being wrong because he's been very bad. There is a
Speaker 2: lot of underlying data that says he has been hitting
Speaker 2: the ball better than his numbers would suggest, So I
Speaker 2: do want to give him some degree of credit there
Speaker 2: and say there has been an element of bad luck,
Speaker 2: and I'm willing to recognize that. But this is now
Speaker 2: basically a year long slump. Because the second half of
Speaker 2: last year he was very bad. This year he has
Speaker 2: been worse. A one ninety seven batting average, His on
Speaker 2: base percentage is under three hundred, is ops to six
Speaker 2: twenty three. He has four home runs, but two of
Speaker 2: those came in March. I mean he has been one
Speaker 2: of the worst hitters in baseball. He's still been batting
Speaker 2: like third or cleanup in a lot of lineups, so
Speaker 2: he's getting opportunities to figure it out. But average ecxs
Speaker 2: of velocity thirty six percentile, barrel rate forty nine percentile,
Speaker 2: hard hit rate twenty eighth percentile, bat speed twenty fifth percentile.
Speaker 2: His expected numbers for things like wOBA and bad.
Speaker 3: You already named all the bad ones. Everything else is great.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, I'm highlighting that the ball is not coming
Speaker 2: off off the bat very well. But he what he
Speaker 2: is doing very well is he's not chasing his withf raise,
Speaker 2: Chase Raider or elite Elite, So he's not like striking
Speaker 2: out a ton. It's his lowestriker out of his career.
Speaker 2: Actually walk right roughly in line with everything else. But
Speaker 2: it's just been so bad, and it's been like a
Speaker 2: year of this, and I'm willing to take maybe not
Speaker 2: the L saying like you should drop him, but I'm
Speaker 2: willing to take the L on him being the best
Speaker 2: catcher in fantasy.
Speaker 3: I think it's too early to take the L on him.
Speaker 3: Maybe he won't catch up to the best catcher in fantasy.
Speaker 3: You know, he's not going to be Carson Kelly. Who
Speaker 3: is you know who can be Carson Kelly. But like
Speaker 3: you said, like a lot of his expected numbers are
Speaker 3: much better. He's batting one ninety one, he's expected batting
Speaker 3: averages two seventy nine. It's so much higher. And I
Speaker 3: think the Orioles as an organization, as like a lineup,
Speaker 3: are just kind of like messy right now, and he's
Speaker 3: just caught up in that. He's swinging strike rate is
Speaker 3: actually down pretty significantly. He was six point eight percent
Speaker 3: last year, it's four point five percent this year. Hard
Speaker 3: hit numbers are up, barrel numbers are up. Fly Ball
Speaker 3: numbers are about the same. Home run to flyball about
Speaker 3: the same two to eleven. Bad bit is not doing
Speaker 3: him any favors. So I think he's like in a slump,
Speaker 3: but he's also getting a ton of bad luck here
Speaker 3: and that the numbers are going to normalize to the
Speaker 3: point where he'll be like a rosterbule catch rosterable. That's
Speaker 3: hard to say, catcher. It's probably too late to be
Speaker 3: the best catcher in fantasy as you were hoping for.
Speaker 3: But I think he could easily finish like top eight
Speaker 3: with a you know, if he turns it around set.
Speaker 2: The Orioles as an organization are a red flag for
Speaker 2: me with him, Like I have a lot of problems
Speaker 2: with their approach at their plate. I don't understand why
Speaker 2: they're not firing Brandon Hyde. I also don't understand why
Speaker 2: they're not firing at least they're hitting coach. I mean
Speaker 2: they they need to completely revamp the approach to this organization.
Speaker 2: They have seen over one thousand fewer pitches this season
Speaker 2: collectively as a team than the Red Sox have like
Speaker 2: they are not taking pitches. It is impacting them. Adley,
Speaker 2: on the other hand, is consistently taking pitches right down
Speaker 2: in the middle.
Speaker 1: Like I don't know what.
Speaker 2: It is that's going on with this team, but the
Speaker 2: guys that should be stars are not hitting well, and
Speaker 2: Adley is right at the forefront of that. I'm really nervous,
Speaker 2: and it scares me that this has been a trend
Speaker 2: multiple years now of getting worth twenty twenty three, his
Speaker 2: OPS was eight or nine. Twenty twenty four, ISPs was
Speaker 2: seven oh nine twenty twenty five, ISPs is six twenty three.
Speaker 2: I get that there's some bad luck baked in there.
Speaker 2: I get that the expected numbers are better. They weren't
Speaker 2: really in the second half of last year. This year,
Speaker 2: it does seem like more bad luck than playing badly
Speaker 2: that I think there were some injury stuff in the
Speaker 2: second half of last year. But we're coming up on
Speaker 2: like almost a year of a really, really poor performer,
Speaker 2: and I feel like I was out over my skis
Speaker 2: about him.
Speaker 3: He's also older than I than I thought he was
Speaker 3: like an old prospect, and I would have expected him
Speaker 3: really like twenty four and he is twenty seven. Yeah,
Speaker 3: twenty seven.
Speaker 2: Talk about this all the time. I in twenty nineteen
Speaker 2: was screaming from the mountaintops. Everybody said, what, Adley's the
Speaker 2: most obvious consensus number one pick we've had in years.
Speaker 2: I was like, they need to take Bobby with junior
Speaker 2: because it was year one of this half decade rebuild.
Speaker 2: I was like, by the time Adley is playing at
Speaker 2: a major league level, at a high level and the
Speaker 2: team is good around him, he's going to be in
Speaker 2: his late twenties, and that's basically what's happening. And I
Speaker 2: was like saying this, anybody who would listen to I
Speaker 2: love Adly, like the player. He's been a great representative
Speaker 2: for the city, kind of a face of the rebuild
Speaker 2: for a lot of those years.
Speaker 1: But I sure would rather have had probably Witt.
Speaker 2: And I said that the day of the draft. I
Speaker 2: would have rather had Wit for no other reason than
Speaker 2: the age. I just thought it was poor, poor planning.
Speaker 2: But you know, that's a conversation for another day. Yeah,
Speaker 2: but he is sneaky older, so like there's not that
Speaker 2: and like he did not sign an extension with the team.
Speaker 1: I think that might be a mistake.
Speaker 2: I mean, if he continues to hit poorly, another year
Speaker 2: older as a catcher, a lot of games in college,
Speaker 2: Like yes, a mistake for him to not have taken
Speaker 2: the sure thing extension and kind of waited out. You know,
Speaker 2: Sometimes these players bet on themselves and it works out
Speaker 2: tremendously well. Other times your value is out what you
Speaker 2: thought it was.
Speaker 1: Maybe.
Speaker 2: I mean, I still think aad they would get a
Speaker 2: huge contract if you know, if he wanted to sign,
Speaker 2: but I don't know if it would be as big
Speaker 2: as he had kind of anticipated early on, given the
Speaker 2: age and position and the performance.
Speaker 3: So two more.
Speaker 1: The other guy I throughout there is Devin Williams.
Speaker 2: I think one of my bold predictions on the show
Speaker 2: was that he could get like cy Young votes this year.
Speaker 2: That's clearly not happening, you know it was. It was
Speaker 2: a bold prediction for a reason. It wasn't intended to
Speaker 2: be a GIMMEI he's just been awful. I mean he's
Speaker 2: been really He's expected ERA is five ten, which is
Speaker 2: three points three runs higher than his actual or to
Speaker 2: me three runs lower turns better is what I should
Speaker 2: say than his actually ERA of eight thirty six.
Speaker 1: He's been really, really bad, and.
Speaker 2: I would imagine there's a path to him getting better,
Speaker 2: you know, the second half of the season, but so
Speaker 2: far it sure looks like a big fat l that
Speaker 2: I need to take.
Speaker 3: Yeah. I don't even have too much to add there,
Speaker 3: because I mean, no one could have really predicted this,
Speaker 3: because he was so good and then going to an
Speaker 3: environment where he should have gotten a ton of save opportunities,
Speaker 3: and it just could not be going worse for him
Speaker 3: right now. And like for him to already be like
Speaker 3: not you know, the lockdown, No, not like lock but
Speaker 3: like the locked in closer for the Yankees and we're
Speaker 3: in mid May, isn't like no one could have predicted that.
Speaker 1: The walk rate is a little high.
Speaker 2: I mean it's it's it's pretty high, but it's it's
Speaker 2: you know, it's usually been around twelve percent. It's in
Speaker 2: sixteen percent, So it's very bad. The alarming number is
Speaker 2: the strikeout rate, because you look at the last few years,
Speaker 2: since twenty twenty, it's been fifty three, thirty eight, forty
Speaker 2: thirty seven, forty three. This year it's twenty three and
Speaker 2: a half percent.
Speaker 1: Strike hou r.
Speaker 2: He's just not striking on anybody, Yeah, I mean, yeah,
Speaker 2: the Whips won seventy nine, I mean, almost double what
Speaker 2: it was last year. Yeah, and the strike out raid
Speaker 2: is almost half what it was last year. The ERA
Speaker 2: is about seven times what it was last year. He
Speaker 2: hasn't had an ERA over two since twenty twenty one,
Speaker 2: and it's currently over eight. So yeah, I am willing
Speaker 2: to accept the L. I have Devin Williams in a
Speaker 2: lot of places. I don't really know what to do
Speaker 2: with him because I don't really want to drop him,
Speaker 2: but you know, and I invested a lot in him
Speaker 2: on Draft Day and that was a mistake. So sure, yeah,
Speaker 2: those are kind of my too. I wanted to highlight
Speaker 2: Adlie and Devin Williams who you got.
Speaker 3: So I wanted to give a few here because, as
Speaker 3: I told you before the show, though, I'm taking the
Speaker 3: L on one, but I'm also going to kind of
Speaker 3: like pull it back a little bit, and I don't
Speaker 3: want to, like, you know, not fulfill my obligation into
Speaker 3: the segment. But my first answer was Jeffrey Springs, just
Speaker 3: because I was really high on him coming into the season.
Speaker 3: I thought he was someone you could take mid to late.
Speaker 3: It's just like really sneaky high up, like this is
Speaker 3: a guy who you know was talking about Sy Young Boats.
Speaker 3: It's a guy who got Sion votes in the past,
Speaker 3: and he got hurt. We just kind of forgot about him.
Speaker 3: He went from the Rays to the A's and I
Speaker 3: just had really high hopes for him and thought he
Speaker 3: was just like I thought he could be in that
Speaker 3: like league winner category, like someone you could take like
Speaker 3: pretty late on draft day who has a subside. I
Speaker 3: didn't think we were gonna get like SP one upside,
Speaker 3: but I thought like we could get like SP two
Speaker 3: upside from Jeffrey Springs. And he got off to a
Speaker 3: really bad start, and part of it was we kind of,
Speaker 3: you know, no one really knew what to expect in
Speaker 3: that ballpark they were going to. It had the kind
Speaker 3: of the same dimensions as the Oak and Coliseum and
Speaker 3: the balls flying out of there. So immediately some of
Speaker 3: the pitchers that I was targeting on draft Day, like Springs,
Speaker 3: like Luis Severino, don't feel as great about them anymore
Speaker 3: because that home ballpark is just not great. However, I
Speaker 3: will say to pull back the olt a little bit.
Speaker 3: In May, he's been really really good, and I don't
Speaker 3: necessarily think this is the same turning around. I think
Speaker 3: this is just kind of like a mini hot streak
Speaker 3: in what is probably gonna be an overall disappointing season.
Speaker 3: But in May, if I will scroll down to where
Speaker 3: he is, three starts, eighteen innings, one point five zero ERA.
Speaker 3: Now that only comes with nine strikeouts and nine strikeouts
Speaker 3: and eighteen innings not great, but one point five ERA,
Speaker 3: one ninety seven average against and two fifty six WOLL
Speaker 3: but in May all really really good numbers for the
Speaker 3: whole season, still a four point twenty seven ERA with
Speaker 3: expected numbers that are even higher than four to two seven,
Speaker 3: And that four two seven comes after three really really
Speaker 3: good starts in May, which tells you where his RA
Speaker 3: was before that. So I think it's still an l
Speaker 3: given my high hopes for him, but there is at
Speaker 3: least a glimmer of hope right now that he's pitching
Speaker 3: much better.
Speaker 1: Yeah, springs to So I didn't I don't have a
Speaker 1: lot of this year.
Speaker 2: I liked him a lot a couple of years ago,
Speaker 2: like prior to the injury, and I just didn't feel
Speaker 2: that confident kind of investing in him, you know, given
Speaker 2: how little he'd pitched the last couple of years, and
Speaker 2: that there are some question marks with the ballpark, But
Speaker 2: I have always liked the pitcher himself when healthy. So, I,
Speaker 2: you know, with someone on the same page with you,
Speaker 2: I wasn't expecting borderline, sp one upside or anything like that.
Speaker 2: But yeah, disappointing for him. What where would you rank
Speaker 2: the rest of the season, like as an overall pictures, Yeah,
Speaker 2: let's put up my rankings this se.
Speaker 3: Where he is I mean, like, it's not he's not
Speaker 3: someone I'm like banking on, Like he's probably he could
Speaker 3: be a free agent in your league and that that
Speaker 3: that means he's probably outside of the top.
Speaker 2: Actually, that's what what is his roster percentage?
Speaker 3: I haven't had exactly one hundred right now?
Speaker 2: You have one hundred one hundred picture picture Yeah, yeah, okay,
Speaker 2: I just want to assume that's what.
Speaker 1: You Yeah, yeah, okay. Who else do you have?
Speaker 3: Easy one well document on this show, Mike Trout someone
Speaker 3: I have rostered everywhere.
Speaker 1: No, you were in on my traut this year.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I had no idea. I mean, it's an
Speaker 3: L in the sense that it went poorly quickly, But
Speaker 3: I mean that was the risk we knew.
Speaker 1: In the set that No, it is an L. The
Speaker 1: direct reason that everybody was avoiding him. Happened that is
Speaker 1: in l fair And when is he coming back, by
Speaker 1: the way, no time here.
Speaker 2: I'm sure they're making a lot of definitive statements about it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, no timetable. He's got a booboo, but no timetable
Speaker 3: for him to return from that boo boo. But again,
Speaker 3: they were not concerned about it when it happened, which
Speaker 3: to me, like I was watching the game when he left,
Speaker 3: and I mean, maybe there's something I missed, And you know,
Speaker 3: I look dumb for saying this, but and I know,
Speaker 3: like you know, medical issues like bone bruises like don't
Speaker 3: always like happen in the same way. But like he
Speaker 3: left the game with a lower body injury and then
Speaker 3: eventually it came out that it was like a bone bruise,
Speaker 3: But like, I don't remember anything happening to him that
Speaker 3: would like cause a bone It's not like he got
Speaker 3: like drilled by a pitch and it was like so
Speaker 3: bad that it caused a bone bruise. It was like,
Speaker 3: oh he left with like so I'm like need discomfort
Speaker 3: and there's just considering like a bone bruise and I
Speaker 3: know there's other ways to get bone bruises, but like
Speaker 3: that's concerning that, like there's nothing pointing to it. And
Speaker 3: then they said they weren't concerned. And then he went
Speaker 3: on the IL and they were like, oh, he should
Speaker 3: be fine. And then like you know, we're now two
Speaker 3: weeks in and he's like doing some light baseball activities.
Speaker 3: I'm like, if this is just a bone bruise, what
Speaker 3: are we doing here? And it's just like I posted
Speaker 3: the other day, like this is very concerning that. There's
Speaker 3: just like no information and it's like we've seen this
Speaker 3: before with Mike Trout. It's like nothing. Burger turns into
Speaker 3: like he's gone forever.
Speaker 2: Yeah, not great, Yeah, yeah, I mean that's straightforward.
Speaker 1: One's next.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And like you said before, I forget it was
Speaker 3: a fun when you were on the show. When Kelly
Speaker 3: was here. It was like almost like to the day
Speaker 3: last year when he went down too, like at the
Speaker 3: end of April, like the last day AVAIRIL. The other
Speaker 3: one is very similar to your Devin Williams one. I
Speaker 3: rarely go closer early, but in a few leagues this
Speaker 3: year I wanted to kind of lock in a top
Speaker 3: tier closer and thought that the price was right to
Speaker 3: get Emmanuel class A, and that's gone even worse than
Speaker 3: Devin Williams in some ways. I mean, the numbers are
Speaker 3: technically not as bad as Devin Williams, but he already
Speaker 3: lost the job like a couple weeks before Devin Williams,
Speaker 3: and it's not clear if he's going to get it back,
Speaker 3: in part because I think the Guardians have a couple
Speaker 3: other good options in the late innings. I think the
Speaker 3: plan is still to get him back and have him
Speaker 3: be the closer, but uh boy, it is not going good.
Speaker 3: He has four point nine to one era expect the
Speaker 3: numbers are all much better, so there is like some
Speaker 3: signs he's like turning this around.
Speaker 2: But I'm more confident in him kind of bouncing back
Speaker 2: for the rest of the year than I am Devin Williams.
Speaker 3: You think, so, why why is it so some.
Speaker 2: Of the expected numbers are better and like at the
Speaker 2: very least like Devin Williams. You could say, like, well,
Speaker 2: he's with a new team, a new ballpark, Like you
Speaker 2: can point to things that changed that maybe are hampering
Speaker 2: him for some reason, Like I don't know that that's
Speaker 2: the case here. I mean, it's just he's just pitching
Speaker 2: worse than I expected.
Speaker 3: So I will say Class I has like technically already
Speaker 3: kind of gotten the job back. He has been converting
Speaker 3: saved more recently. He is usable in some of those leagues,
Speaker 3: and the numbers have been better over the last like week.
Speaker 2: I invested heavily in our Fantasy pros Insiders Baseball league.
Speaker 2: It's a head to head categories, and I decided to
Speaker 2: go very very heavy on pitching, both starters and relievers,
Speaker 2: and I have both of these, have both of our
Speaker 2: relievers on where.
Speaker 3: Well, at least Class A is like usable. Now you know,
Speaker 3: maybe maybe taking the ls too early because he has
Speaker 3: kind of like I was worried when he first lost
Speaker 3: the job. They have Hunter Gaddis and they have I
Speaker 3: forget the other reliever who actually got the job temporarily
Speaker 3: ahead of a Hunter Gadus, But it was I was like, well,
Speaker 3: he might just not get this Jop back. But he
Speaker 3: has recently. He hasn't like looked that great, but he
Speaker 3: has been atleast getting saved, so you can use him
Speaker 3: in that way.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, speaking of the Guardians, we are now giving
Speaker 2: away a Jose Ramirez signed Guardians jersey courtesy of our
Speaker 2: friends at Pristine auction dot com. All you have to
Speaker 2: do to enter is to subscribe to the Fantasy pros
Speaker 2: MLB YouTube channel right now, drop a comment below on
Speaker 2: any video and that is it will be announcing one
Speaker 2: lucky winner right here on the channel. So make sure
Speaker 2: to turn on those notifications so you can know when
Speaker 2: new videos are up and to claim your prize. Let's
Speaker 2: go to our second topic here of rounding the bass
Speaker 2: Mayor joseel Tuve.
Speaker 1: Is he cooked? Is he washed? Is he finished?
Speaker 2: Being an elite Fantasy contributor. His ops is under seven
Speaker 2: hundred right now, he is batting two fifty six. His
Speaker 2: OBP is just three oh two. His slugging is three
Speaker 2: sixty nine. He has four home runs and three stolen bases.
Speaker 2: His and I don't know if you have looked at this,
Speaker 2: I put it in the note. His stack cast data
Speaker 2: is horrific.
Speaker 1: It is absolutely abysmal.
Speaker 2: Fifth percent expect its fifth percentile, excuse me, expected wOBA
Speaker 2: twelve percentile, expect to batting average, eleventh expected slugging, first percentile,
Speaker 2: average activelosity.
Speaker 1: His average activelosity is eighty four point four miles an hour.
Speaker 2: He's also first percentile and sweet spot rate, his bat
Speaker 2: speed is well, I mean it's all blue. His chase
Speaker 2: rate is up, his barrel rate is down. I mean
Speaker 2: it has just been really really abysmal.
Speaker 1: Across the board. He is thirty five.
Speaker 2: Now, is this a great longtime elite player taking that
Speaker 2: step down?
Speaker 1: Do you see this as still early season? Small sample size?
Speaker 2: I mean, the underlying data is just so poor that
Speaker 2: I don't know how you can have any confidence in
Speaker 2: him at this age.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is almost another l I can take. Not
Speaker 3: that I was heavily invested in him this year, but
Speaker 3: I actually kind of predicted this downfall like two or
Speaker 3: three years ago and ended up being like way too early,
Speaker 3: just kind of banking on a player because you know,
Speaker 3: he's very small, and just kind of like banking on
Speaker 3: I didn't expect a player that small to kind of
Speaker 3: age very gracefully, especially on like the power side, and
Speaker 3: he had dealt with some lower body injuries. I was like, well,
Speaker 3: if the speed kind of flounders and the power might
Speaker 3: not be there, like how valuable iscy for fantasy? And
Speaker 3: of course he's still been really good the last two
Speaker 3: or three years. But now maybe it's because I do
Speaker 3: have a couple shares of him. I didn't like aggressively
Speaker 3: target in, but I do have him in a couple
Speaker 3: of places, in part because I liked the idea of
Speaker 3: where he was going and then he was going to
Speaker 3: be outfield, infield, you know, like outfield, second base. Eligible
Speaker 3: walk grade is fine, strike out right is about the same.
Speaker 3: Bat in two fifty six is like well below. He's
Speaker 3: a career three or five hitter. He's batting two fifty
Speaker 3: six with an expected batting average that's thirty points lower
Speaker 3: than that, So that's not great. The hard hit numbers
Speaker 3: are about the same, swing strike is actually lower, barrel
Speaker 3: percentage way down. So, like he said, there are some
Speaker 3: like concerning underlying numbers there. And we've kind of talked
Speaker 3: about the same thing with a Christian Walker, and like
Speaker 3: Marcus Semon is like these are like much older players,
Speaker 3: and it's it's hard to tell in the early in
Speaker 3: the season. Is like you said, is this just a
Speaker 3: small sample size, is it a slow start, or are
Speaker 3: we seeing the cliff? Is this because just kind of
Speaker 3: like the new like version of this player as they've gotten,
Speaker 3: you know, they're in their mid thirties now.
Speaker 2: I don't know what the answer to that question is, honestly,
Speaker 2: like if it is kind of the new normal with
Speaker 2: Josel Tuve, or if it is you know, hey, this
Speaker 2: guy's a star. We should have trusted him to figure
Speaker 2: it out. I tend to lean towards the negative side
Speaker 2: of that answer, and thinking that this is somebody that
Speaker 2: I would sell low on, for example, if you can,
Speaker 2: and I would not want to buy low on. I
Speaker 2: mean again, like the numbers are all bad and the
Speaker 2: expected data is worse. That's a pretty bad formula for
Speaker 2: a guy in his mid thirties. And you know, we
Speaker 2: shouldn't let the players of twenty years ago when steroids
Speaker 2: were rampant, you know, color our perspective, Like, mid thirties
Speaker 2: is a very reasonable time to fall off a cliff, right,
Speaker 2: this is this is not unheard of physically, if if
Speaker 2: that is in fact, what's happening. So and it's not
Speaker 2: like that the Houston lineup is you know what it was,
Speaker 2: and it's heyday either to kind of help bump him
Speaker 2: up with some of the counting stats too. So yeah,
Speaker 2: I mean, I I think it's a pretty sad thing
Speaker 2: to watch. I mean, unless you hate the Astros, which
Speaker 2: would be totally justified, but it's sad.
Speaker 1: If you have enjoyed watching al TV over the years.
Speaker 3: Are you willing to buy low on him right now?
Speaker 1: I'm not. I mean he's he.
Speaker 2: I would pick him up if somebody dropped him, but like,
Speaker 2: I'm not giving up anything. You know, I would trade
Speaker 2: from our conversation last week, I would trade haave baias
Speaker 2: for him, but like pretty much not much more than
Speaker 2: that I want. I want nothing to do with all
Speaker 2: two because the problem with All two a too is
Speaker 2: if you have him, you're gonna start him like you
Speaker 2: don't want to be the guy who sits out to
Speaker 2: VA when he finally gets it going again, And so
Speaker 2: every week he's just gonna be dragging you down unless
Speaker 2: he really does figure it out. So like I would
Speaker 2: buy him for the absolute barrassed minimum price, literally free.
Speaker 2: Anything beyond that, no, I have no interest in.
Speaker 3: Buying I it's kind of stats aren't.
Speaker 1: That bad, but his underlying stuff is even worse.
Speaker 3: Right, but he hasn't killed you in your line up,
Speaker 3: and he's still hit in two fifty four months, three
Speaker 3: stolen bases. It's not that bad.
Speaker 1: I don't know.
Speaker 2: I mean, I have him in our head to head
Speaker 2: points deep keeper league, and in that league he is
Speaker 2: you know, if you look at the last several years,
Speaker 2: his points per game in this format have been you know,
Speaker 2: this is going back like a decade four and a half,
Speaker 2: four and a half, three and a half four, two
Speaker 2: and a half. That was twenty twenty four four four
Speaker 2: and a half three. This year it's barely over two.
Speaker 2: It's like, it's a pretty steep drop. And that's just
Speaker 2: one scoring format, but it's a pretty steep drop. Yeah,
Speaker 2: he's been caught stealing as many times as he's stolen
Speaker 2: a base, Like the speed might not be there anymore.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just.
Speaker 2: Yeah, his sprint speed is forty six percentile this year.
Speaker 3: What is it not?
Speaker 1: I don't know, Actually I'm looking, I'm.
Speaker 2: You know, but I mean usually he can get you
Speaker 2: a handful of stolen basism like the pestles.
Speaker 1: I guess that's actually pretty normal in life for him, So.
Speaker 2: I take I take back that as a criticist. I mean,
Speaker 2: the last couple of years at least, it's pretty normal,
Speaker 2: like into his thirties. Earlier on it was different.
Speaker 3: Of course, where do you think he is on Fantasy
Speaker 3: Bro's VBR, Like overall, like, and I know that's a
Speaker 3: difficult gauge. So like let's say above or below one fifty,
Speaker 3: like tie players, hitters, top hitters.
Speaker 1: I would guess maybe in the like one thirty to
Speaker 1: forty range.
Speaker 3: Very close. You're getting warmer. You want to try and
Speaker 3: get closer.
Speaker 1: One forty five. Ooh ah close?
Speaker 2: Uh yeah, I mean again, it's it's the counting sets
Speaker 2: being down from usual coupled with the underlying SATs being
Speaker 2: much much worse.
Speaker 1: Do you want to buy him?
Speaker 3: I buy low?
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, we see.
Speaker 3: That depends on what the price is. Like you know,
Speaker 3: I'm always wanted to buy it by very low, but
Speaker 3: I just think.
Speaker 2: Yeah, like I said, I'll buy free, but I don't
Speaker 2: want to buy low.
Speaker 3: But I figure if he was last year about it,
Speaker 3: two ninety five twenty home onre twenty two stolen bases,
Speaker 3: even if he bats like two sixty fifteen home runs
Speaker 3: fifteen stolen bases, that's still very valuable to me.
Speaker 1: I don't know that he's going to get there, though.
Speaker 3: We'll see, We'll see.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we will see. Let's go to our news notes
Speaker 1: and injuries. We can run through these quickly, so real quick.
Speaker 3: Some of the Top News Shane mcclanahan's still feeling discomfort
Speaker 3: in that pitching arm, with that nerve issue. Don't love that.
Speaker 3: I've been kind of stashing him a couple of places,
Speaker 3: and I feel like it might be times of just
Speaker 3: kind of cut loose. It's uh if he's like not
Speaker 3: even he just recently started throwing and he's immediately feeling discomfort.
Speaker 3: We don't really have like it's a nerve issue. It's
Speaker 3: like hard to kind of like it's you know, it's
Speaker 3: not like a like a torn labor where you like
Speaker 3: know he's done, or like a muscle strain where you
Speaker 3: know it's going to be like a few weeks. We
Speaker 3: don't really have a ton of infoto go on on
Speaker 3: like a nerve issue. And you know, I'm if you've
Speaker 3: still been stashing him. It's now mid May. You know,
Speaker 3: are you I know you have him somewhere. Are you
Speaker 3: just continuing to hold on?
Speaker 1: Yeah? I don't.
Speaker 2: Yes, I mean it's easy enough to just stick him
Speaker 2: on an il spot, and I haven't the places where
Speaker 2: I have him, I haven't felt like I've really needed to.
Speaker 2: You know, I just got a cut bait to make
Speaker 2: a room for some other like hot shot call up
Speaker 2: or something. So I've been comfortable just sitting on him
Speaker 2: and hoping all about.
Speaker 3: In this scenario, I have him in TGFBI where there's
Speaker 3: no il spots. It's a deep league, fifteen teams, five outfielders.
Speaker 3: He's just been taking up a bench spot for me,
Speaker 3: and it's not like there's a ton the great players available,
Speaker 3: like you said on in Free Agencies that he's just
Speaker 3: been sitting on my bench. But I don't know how
Speaker 3: much longer I can just have an empty bench spot.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, But I mean like that's the thing is
Speaker 1: like who are you getting in it? Deeply? Like that,
Speaker 1: who are.
Speaker 2: You picking up to replace him with? That has that
Speaker 2: kind of upside, I'd rather just sit on the upside.
Speaker 2: I mean, if there's a scenario where it's like you
Speaker 2: desperately need to pick somebody up, like let's say you
Speaker 2: have you know, let's see if Freddy Freeman and he
Speaker 2: goes on the IL and you don't want to drop
Speaker 2: Freddy Freeman, but you don't have a backup first basement,
Speaker 2: he desperately need to pick him up, and there was
Speaker 2: like somebody good on the on the waivers, like yeah, sure,
Speaker 2: like a specific scenario like that, I'd be open to it,
Speaker 2: but like in general, I'm not just looking to drop
Speaker 2: him for the sake of having another bench spot, Like
Speaker 2: I don't care, No, I don't care that much about
Speaker 2: having one more bench spot if if whoever I pick
Speaker 2: up is not even going to be really in contention
Speaker 2: to start for me.
Speaker 3: How about this, what if would you rather stay Sean
Speaker 3: McClanahan or Shane Bieber? And I can give you an
Speaker 3: update on Shane Bieber. He uh just recently just started
Speaker 3: like throwing off a mound. At least that he's still
Speaker 3: a ways away from returning from Tommy John surgery. But
Speaker 3: at least with him, I have hope that he could
Speaker 3: be back in like a month, where say McClanahan just
Speaker 3: might be a nothing.
Speaker 2: I would probably rather be stashing McClanahan, But I mean,
Speaker 2: obviously ideally it's neither her. But you know, but if
Speaker 2: I'm if I'm keeping a bench spot for one of these.
Speaker 3: Well what about in a league like that, Like, would
Speaker 3: would you drop McLanahan for Bieber?
Speaker 2: I think I'd rather have McLanahan in that league because
Speaker 2: I guys coming back from Tommy John. I'm like even
Speaker 2: when they're back. I don't really have any expectations, like, like,
Speaker 2: even when McClanahan returns, I'm kind of hoping that we'll
Speaker 2: get something out of him.
Speaker 1: Like Bieber, he could return and it could be like.
Speaker 2: Just such a limited role that it doesn't really matter anyway.
Speaker 3: Fair, Okay, so we can go quickly. Tanner Hawk allowed
Speaker 3: eleven earned runs for the second time this year.
Speaker 1: Is that pulling a Hawk or is that pulling an
Speaker 1: Aaron Nola?
Speaker 3: That's true. He got off to like a decent start
Speaker 3: and then he got shelled for eleven earned runs, and
Speaker 3: then he looked kind of good and people picked them
Speaker 3: back up and he hurt them again. So it's kind
Speaker 3: of brutal that, especially in like if you think about
Speaker 3: it in like Rodo terms, you probably rostered. How you
Speaker 3: give up eleven earned runs. You dropped him, missed his
Speaker 3: good starts, and then if you picked him up again,
Speaker 3: you got hit with eleven earned runs again. So there
Speaker 3: are probably people out there that have like missed his
Speaker 3: two or three good starts and just have twenty two
Speaker 3: earned runs on the books thanks to Tanner Hawk. Lucas Giolito,
Speaker 3: I don't know what to make of him. He had
Speaker 3: a good start, a really bad start, and then another
Speaker 3: good start. I've seen a lot of optimism for him
Speaker 3: in this space. I kind of don't see it when
Speaker 3: I want, Like, something just looks off to me, even
Speaker 3: I was listening to another show I think it was
Speaker 3: the CBS Guys recently where they talked about him looking
Speaker 3: better and his vlos as fastball is up. His los
Speaker 3: ages fastball was up, but I was watching the game
Speaker 3: he was also really struggling to locate it, which tells
Speaker 3: me he was maybe overthrowing to kind of get that
Speaker 3: velocity backup, and he just didn't look that sharp to
Speaker 3: me despite the good numbers. One of the bigger news
Speaker 3: items is the Dodgers are calling up catching prospect Dalton Rushing,
Speaker 3: and the more important thing is it sounds like he could.
Speaker 3: He's a very top you know, he's a very highly
Speaker 3: rated prospect. He's like maybe their top prospect. And the
Speaker 3: good thing there is that he's a catching prospect but
Speaker 3: should be in the lineup in other ways, Like he
Speaker 3: can play a little first base, he can play a
Speaker 3: little outfield, and so there's a chance he's not just
Speaker 3: the backup to Will Smith. He's someone who's in the
Speaker 3: lineup several times a week.
Speaker 2: So I saw I thought I saw a quote from
Speaker 2: the Dodgers that they were thinking he was going to
Speaker 2: catch twice a week and then like kind of find
Speaker 2: other at bats elsewhere. I didn't come away from that
Speaker 2: quote thinking like it was going to be enough to
Speaker 2: be like worth starting in fantasy?
Speaker 1: Did you kind of re that differently?
Speaker 3: I read it as he's going to get enough opportunities,
Speaker 3: and I think he's a good enough prospect where if
Speaker 3: he hits, he'll be in the lineup more. And they
Speaker 3: have enough injuries and enough opportunities. I mean, grant Hi
Speaker 3: once they get healthy. If he hasn't been hitting, he's gone.
Speaker 3: But for me, especially in like a two catcher league,
Speaker 3: if you know you can get a prospect a catcher,
Speaker 3: and even in one catcher league, if you're can to
Speaker 3: afford to like kind of stash him, I do think
Speaker 3: he's a really good prospect. He's a really good hitter,
Speaker 3: and you know he can find his way into the
Speaker 3: lineup in other ways, especially because like Freddy Freeman is
Speaker 3: incredibly hot right now. But it also like there was
Speaker 3: a report that he gets like like an hour or
Speaker 3: more of treatment on his ankle every day, so like
Speaker 3: he's just like scraping scraping it together, like health wise,
Speaker 3: and like he's the kind of player who if they
Speaker 3: have like one more injury, he could be an everyday
Speaker 3: player at the catcher position. Bryce Miller to the IL.
Speaker 3: He's another player I considered for like taking the l on.
Speaker 3: I wasn't like historically high on Bryce Miller, but I
Speaker 3: have a ton of shares of him this year because
Speaker 3: I liked where the price was going. So he has
Speaker 3: not looked good and he has gone to the IL.
Speaker 3: Jose Katana everyone was worried about, you know, holding the
Speaker 3: bag and he turns back into Jose Katana, but apparently
Speaker 3: he's just going to the IL. He had a shoulder
Speaker 3: issue and then they said he was fine, he was
Speaker 3: gonna start Saturday, and now he's going to the IL.
Speaker 3: So like not a huge name for Fantasy, but someone
Speaker 3: that we've talked about on the show a bunch recently.
Speaker 3: That's someone where we've been streaming because he just keeps
Speaker 3: pitching well. Ronald Lacune began a rehab assignment and is
Speaker 3: playing the outfield, So I was kind of hoping that happened,
Speaker 3: Like two or three weeks ago, but it's happening now,
Speaker 3: and so that's very exciting, especially if someone who's stashing
Speaker 3: him and Spencer Streider recently threw a SIM game and
Speaker 3: could be returning as early as this week. It hasn't
Speaker 3: been decided yet, maybe by the by this weekend, we'll
Speaker 3: know more if he's going to go in a rehab
Speaker 3: assignment or just kind of come right back to the braves.
Speaker 3: It's it did sound or like, actually, you know, I
Speaker 3: read it, So I will say that I read that
Speaker 3: he his velocity started out fine in a SIM game
Speaker 3: that he threw, but as he went on, the velocity
Speaker 3: kind of dipped a little bit, which I think can
Speaker 3: be pretty normal for someone, you know, working their way back.
Speaker 3: But you know, it is something worth noting that they
Speaker 3: might have seen that kind of fatigue, you know, because
Speaker 3: they didn't seem like they were concerned for like injured reasons.
Speaker 3: They just thought, you know, he needed to work back
Speaker 3: into the game shape. But worth noting that a velocity
Speaker 3: was down. So it's possible they send him back out
Speaker 3: for a rehab assignment, but he could return as early
Speaker 3: as this week. I've seen some sites projecting him to
Speaker 3: start as early as Tuesday.
Speaker 2: Last topic here on Round on the Base is I
Speaker 2: don't have a ton on this, but I did think
Speaker 2: it was worth mentioning just because it's a big story
Speaker 2: in baseball. Pete Rose and Shulis Joe Jackson.
Speaker 3: What's that? So it's a hot topic, sor. I didn't
Speaker 3: mean to direct you, but yeah, highly debated in the
Speaker 3: space right now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Pete Rose and Sheilas Joe Jackson now eligible for
Speaker 2: the Hall of Fame. They've been kind of reinstated into baseball.
Speaker 2: The line of thinking from Manfred was this is a
Speaker 2: lifetime ban. You know, these guys are obviously no longer
Speaker 2: with us, some more recently than others, and you know
Speaker 2: they're now kind of eligible. And I didn't really know.
Speaker 2: I didn't, like, have a ton of strong feelings, but
Speaker 2: I expected to have a ton of strong feelings about it.
Speaker 2: I have somebody who tends to care about the Hall
Speaker 2: of Fame and the history of the sport and.
Speaker 1: Think about this stuff a lot.
Speaker 2: But as I sat down to think, like what do
Speaker 2: I actually want to say about this on the show,
Speaker 2: I really didn't have much. I'm kind of curious what
Speaker 2: your opinion is. I don't find myself feeling strong like
Speaker 2: I do think it's kind of crappy to like punish
Speaker 2: a guy for his whole life and then when he's
Speaker 2: gone and be like, Okay, well now you'll get the
Speaker 2: you know, the benefit and the value of being enshrined
Speaker 2: in the Hall of Fame.
Speaker 3: That's my take.
Speaker 2: That it's crappy to wait until they're gone.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: But at the same time, like Pete Rose like a
Speaker 2: Hall of Fame player, yes, but like even aside from
Speaker 2: the gambling, like the by all accounts isn't wasn't a
Speaker 2: great person. So like it's also hard for me to
Speaker 2: feel too like zimpthetic for somebody like who you you know,
Speaker 2: maybe doesn't carry himself in that kind of hall of
Speaker 2: fame way. Now, there's a lot of like bad people
Speaker 2: in the Hall of Fame, so I'm not saying that
Speaker 2: should be like a disqualifying thing, but you know, it
Speaker 2: was hard for me to get up in arms about it,
Speaker 2: I guess, and frankly, like obviously, like I'm aware of
Speaker 2: who shoeless Joe Jackson is, and like the scandal from
Speaker 2: back then, but that was long going to ago that
Speaker 2: like it's not like I have all the details on
Speaker 2: that kind of story or anything like that. So like
Speaker 2: the ultimately, well, yeah, so like that one's like a
Speaker 2: weird one even like weigh in on and like have
Speaker 2: a strong strong opinion about. But like Pete Rose one
Speaker 2: is like, yeah, I think it's kind of like a
Speaker 2: crappy way to do it by Major League Baseball, But ultimately,
Speaker 2: like I don't feel that strongly either way, Like, and
Speaker 2: it's not like he's in the Hall of Fame, like
Speaker 2: he still needs to get voted in by the writers,
Speaker 2: and I genuinely don't know like what they're going to
Speaker 2: do with that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm pretty similar in that I didn't have like
Speaker 3: very strong feelings. I saw a lot of very strong feelings,
Speaker 3: like it's ridiculous that they even consider this. I think
Speaker 3: it's in a different bucket than the steroid guys who,
Speaker 3: like I'm you know, I'm pretty on board with with
Speaker 3: not letting some of them in just because like what
Speaker 3: they did directly resulted in their numbers, and so it's
Speaker 3: kind of hard to be like, hey, like you were
Speaker 3: one of our best players, but also like you were
Speaker 3: a robot because you cheated.
Speaker 2: Are you just very quickly? Are you I don't think
Speaker 2: we've ever talked about this. Are you somebody who thinks
Speaker 2: that Barry Bonds shouldn't be in the Hall of Fame.
Speaker 3: I have very complicated feelings about that. I'm like I
Speaker 3: could go either way. I mean, like, on one hand,
Speaker 3: like he very clearly did steroids, but on the other hand,
Speaker 3: like he never he kind of never got caught, like
Speaker 3: he never actually like there's no proof they did steroids,
Speaker 3: so like it's kind of like catching.
Speaker 1: He also was a Hall of Famer before steroids.
Speaker 2: Right, Let's let's let's save Barry Bod's well a week
Speaker 2: where we don't have a ton of great topics.
Speaker 1: Let's let's do Barry Bonds in a future. I was
Speaker 1: just curious, but yeah, Pete Rose.
Speaker 3: Yeah, in this case, I like I thought it was like,
Speaker 3: you know, you're either going to take a stance and
Speaker 3: not let him in the Hall of Fame or make
Speaker 3: him eligible, or like, if you're gonna do it, doable.
Speaker 3: He's alive. Like they waited until he died and they're like,
Speaker 3: all right, now he can be in the Hall of Fame.
Speaker 3: And I'm like, all right, Like that's kind of crappy.
Speaker 3: And I've seen some players. Some people talk on the
Speaker 3: space like you know, like if you're permanently ineligible, like
Speaker 3: how are you like eligible now? And I'm like I
Speaker 3: feel like, you know, for like in the case of
Speaker 3: like serless Joe Jackson, like all right, like you're not
Speaker 3: permanently ineligible, but like maybe seventy years after you die
Speaker 3: you can get into the Hall of Fame. Like is
Speaker 3: that a harsh enough punishment for what you did? Which,
Speaker 3: like for his scandal that you know, like that's a
Speaker 3: big one. Like they threw the World Series. Yeah, there's
Speaker 3: no real evidence that he did, because his numbers are
Speaker 3: really good in that World series and he was kind
Speaker 3: of like a not very smart guy apparently, so there
Speaker 3: are theories out there that like he wasn't in on
Speaker 3: it even though he kind of knew and was like
Speaker 3: still playing as hard as as they forget what the
Speaker 3: numbers are, but he batted over three hundred but no
Speaker 3: errors in that game, yeah, or in that series, but
Speaker 3: like you kind of get it, like okay, like this
Speaker 3: is a major thing. You can't throw a world series
Speaker 3: and then get into the get into the Hall of Fame.
Speaker 3: But the Pete Rose one was like it's been debated
Speaker 3: for like decades, and he's kind of gone back and
Speaker 3: forth with like multiple commissioners like in baseball, and it
Speaker 3: seemed like at one point it almost felt like it
Speaker 3: was like me dealing with my son, where they were
Speaker 3: like just say sorry, I'm in the Hall of Fame,
Speaker 3: and he was like no, no, I refuse, And it
Speaker 3: almost seemed like, like you said, like if he carried
Speaker 3: himself better and was like more apologetic and like worked
Speaker 3: with Major League Baseball, he probably would have gotten in.
Speaker 3: But he just kind of acted like a jerk about it.
Speaker 3: But I do think it's kind of weird that they
Speaker 3: were like okay, like you're not getting in the Hall
Speaker 3: of Fame, and then you die and they're like okay,
Speaker 3: maybe now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like like I guess, yeah, I guess that's my thoughts.
Speaker 2: Like if you want to dig your heels in and
Speaker 2: say Piros will never be in the Hall of Fame,
Speaker 2: I can understand that, thinking like, at the end of
Speaker 2: the day, it is a museum and it's really hard
Speaker 2: to tell the story of Major League Baseball with that.
Speaker 1: It's a woll time hits leader.
Speaker 2: So like I I tend to be on the side
Speaker 2: of letting people in as long as they're on field,
Speaker 2: play warranted. I'm a pretty small hall guy in terms
Speaker 2: of the performance threshold you need to get in, but
Speaker 2: I'm a big hall guy in terms of there's stuff
Speaker 2: around that because it is a museum at the end
Speaker 2: of the day. But if you want to like take
Speaker 2: a hard stance on it, I'm okay with that. It
Speaker 2: just feels kind of cruel to say, well, now that
Speaker 2: he's dead, we're gonna lift this, like honestly, like at
Speaker 2: the end of the day, like it doesn't matter that much, right,
Speaker 2: Like it's like life is short, right, We're we're gonna
Speaker 2: get to kind of celebrate this fun, silly game in
Speaker 2: a really meaningful way. And I love it and I
Speaker 2: take it very seriously. By the end of the day,
Speaker 2: it is just a game, and you're gonna like punish
Speaker 2: a guy who like basically gave his whole life to
Speaker 2: this sport, and the punish him in a way that says,
Speaker 2: we will give this to you, but not when you
Speaker 2: are around to recognize and enjoy it. It just feels
Speaker 2: kind of harsh. Like again, it feels harsher to do this.
Speaker 2: Then it would be to just never let him in.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's an odd move from an odd commissioner
Speaker 3: who I don't I agree with them.
Speaker 2: That is also another conversation for another episode is our
Speaker 2: thoughts on Manfred. All right, well, we'll go ahead and
Speaker 2: wrap up this on that. Be sure to check out
Speaker 2: our other episodes of the cycle. This week, We've got
Speaker 2: two more coming your way. We've got some buys and sells,
Speaker 2: some waiver picks, some pitching streamers, all that good stuff
Speaker 2: as per usual.
Speaker 1: That's both on video and on audio. Before this episode.
Speaker 1: For mayor, I'm Brian Warmley. Thanks for tuning in. We'll
Speaker 1: see again next time.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast.
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