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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Balance of Power. On
Speaker 2: this same day that the Senate actually passed something they stayed.
Speaker 3: All night that wasn't originally the plan, but they just.
Speaker 2: Decided to go for it, you know, recess time and
Speaker 2: all that, passing the National Security Supplemental seventy to twenty nine.
Speaker 2: If you're playing along on your home game, now, we
Speaker 2: know that this has been called da in the House
Speaker 2: by the Speaker, and you gotta love Washington. He's out
Speaker 2: with what they were calling yesterday a preemptive rejection. Why
Speaker 2: wait for the bill to pass, you know, preemptively quote
Speaker 2: in the absence of having received any single border policy
Speaker 2: change from the Senate, remembering Republicans didn't want the border
Speaker 2: deal attached. The House will have to continue to work
Speaker 2: on its own will on these matters. America deserves better
Speaker 2: than the Senate's status quo unquote sixty billion dollars on
Speaker 2: the line for Ukraine, billions more for Israel and Taiwan.
Speaker 2: As we assembled our panel, Rick Davis and Jeanie shan
Speaker 2: Zeina are with us, glad to say Bloomberg Politics contributors
Speaker 2: to help us make sense of it all.
Speaker 3: What do you think, Rick, It passed wasn't.
Speaker 2: Overwhelming, but it passed with a pretty good number here.
Speaker 2: Will it ever see the light of day now that
Speaker 2: it's gone through the Senate?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think you got to give it
Speaker 3: its due.
Speaker 4: If someone said a month ago that this was going
Speaker 4: to pass without homeline security, without border security attached to it,
Speaker 4: by seventy votes in the Senate, you would have said,
Speaker 4: no way, that's not going to happen. Well, it happened,
Speaker 4: and that gives it enough impetus to be serious when
Speaker 4: it hits the House. And as you point out, Joe,
Speaker 4: I mean, like I am very dizzy with the back
Speaker 4: and forth between the Speaker and the majority leader of
Speaker 4: the Senate. You know, we're not going to take this
Speaker 4: without without border security. Put on the border security. We're
Speaker 4: not going to take it with this border security. Take
Speaker 4: off the word scurity. We're not going to take it
Speaker 4: without border security. I mean, like, oh my god, I mean,
Speaker 4: is this the craziest debate you've ever seen?
Speaker 5: Uh?
Speaker 4: It just it lacks seriousness.
Speaker 3: It's wacky.
Speaker 2: Aid for Ukraine has never been so close at least
Speaker 2: most recent stretch, Genie, or felt so far away at
Speaker 2: the same time. Will this lead to a new build
Speaker 2: and potentially in the House or just a stalemate?
Speaker 6: You know, my vote is on a stalemate. Forgive me
Speaker 6: for being pessimistic. But when he comes out and I
Speaker 6: love the phrase, you know, the preemptive rejection. That's a
Speaker 6: great way to put it.
Speaker 5: You know.
Speaker 6: Chris Murphy sent out a tweet last night or an
Speaker 6: X last night, which really summarized it and really to
Speaker 6: Rick's point. He basically said, the speaker requested border security.
Speaker 6: We did that, we put it on, the speaker said
Speaker 6: no deal, We took it off. We sent it back
Speaker 6: to him without that, and he said no, wait a minute,
Speaker 6: we need border deal. And then Chris Murphy ended by saying,
Speaker 6: w something f And that is really where many of
Speaker 6: us find ourselves because what is happening you wanted it,
Speaker 6: you don't and lost in this is the reality that
Speaker 6: this is money very much needed, and very much supported
Speaker 6: and even supported by some of the Republicans in the
Speaker 6: Senate who are now speaking out against it. At one
Speaker 6: point at least they supported it, like Lindsey Graham. So
Speaker 6: it is head scratching when you think about it. And
Speaker 6: I don't think this sees the light of day. I
Speaker 6: don't think a discharge petition is going to get this done.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you mentioned Lindsay Graham the goalpost keep moving here, Rick,
Speaker 2: it wasn't just the border component. And I'm still a
Speaker 2: little bit dizzy and confused from all of that. But
Speaker 2: now the idea is that this money should be in
Speaker 2: the form of a loan, maybe even a zero interest
Speaker 2: loan with no do date. Senator Graham parroting Donald Trump's
Speaker 2: idea here to say quote it should be a loan
Speaker 2: to the countries in question, as suggested by President Trump.
Speaker 3: So we've just.
Speaker 2: Given up the ghost here on Senate or House leadership.
Speaker 2: Donald Trump is running Capitol Hill.
Speaker 3: Well, he's certainly running the House. We've already come to
Speaker 3: that conclusion.
Speaker 4: That's one of the reasons you've had this kind of
Speaker 4: crazy reconsideration of all these debates.
Speaker 3: But I think there's still a fight going on in
Speaker 3: the Senate.
Speaker 4: The fact that this bill passed you with twenty two
Speaker 4: Republican votes indicated in the Senate that Mitch McConnell still
Speaker 4: has a voice and he may be the last man
Speaker 4: standing in a voice against Donald Trump and this sort
Speaker 4: of haphazard foreign policy national security. Lindsey Graham caved under
Speaker 4: the pressure of Donald Trump, saying no, it's got to
Speaker 4: be my way, the highway invented this new loan program
Speaker 4: and it's just a complete non starter on Capitol Hill.
Speaker 4: And it's shocking and surprising to me, frankly, that someone
Speaker 4: with the statue that Lindsay Graham has would ape the
Speaker 4: Donald Trump line so quickly.
Speaker 3: Yeah, how about that.
Speaker 2: Well, look, we've got a lot of experience here in
Speaker 2: Rick and Jenie, and nobody seems to know exactly where
Speaker 2: this is going to go in the House. We do
Speaker 2: know there will be an impeachment vote later on today.
Speaker 2: Alejandro Majorcus up for round two. Remember the first one failed.
Speaker 2: Al Green, we talked to him from his hospital bed,
Speaker 2: high drama. I don't know if that's going to be
Speaker 2: possible this time around, Genie. And if the House does
Speaker 2: impeach Secretary in my orcus, what does that mean for
Speaker 2: the future of any border deal happening?
Speaker 6: You know, a border deal this year is simply off
Speaker 6: the table because the Republicans who asked for it decided
Speaker 6: they didn't want it when Donald Trump told them they
Speaker 6: couldn't do it. And that's the reality. They probably will
Speaker 6: get my Orcus impeached today, but that is a non starter,
Speaker 6: that is dead on arrival in the Senate, going to
Speaker 6: go anywhere. But it is just indicative of this do
Speaker 6: nothing Congress except the political bidding of Donald Trump. And
Speaker 6: that is simply where we are today. This is was
Speaker 6: disastrous the first to vote that Mike Johnson let them
Speaker 6: have on this that they lost, and when they do
Speaker 6: get it, and they probably will today, it's equally as
Speaker 6: disastrous because all it's doing is again the bidding of
Speaker 6: Donald Trump and nothing for the American people. You don't
Speaker 6: impeach because you disagree with somebody's policy. What you do
Speaker 6: when you disagree is you win elections and get your
Speaker 6: own guy or woman in there.
Speaker 2: William Belknapp resigned moments before the impeachment vote almost one
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty years ago. Rick that was Ulysses S.
Speaker 2: Grant's secretary of War he was going to be impeached
Speaker 2: over a kickback scheme involving government contracts. This has actually
Speaker 2: never happened. He resigned before the vote. Will this be
Speaker 2: the first and history for a love.
Speaker 4: Your History lesson?
Speaker 3: Too bad?
Speaker 4: This wasn't as spicy as that one.
Speaker 7: Yeah.
Speaker 4: I mean, look, I think my if Secretary of my
Speaker 4: Orcus was reading the history and the tea leaves.
Speaker 3: I think he would just take himself out.
Speaker 4: Of this, this this debate. He serves at the pleasure
Speaker 4: of the President. Obviously, the President doesn't want to fire him.
Speaker 4: He hasn't really done anything wrong as the President views it,
Speaker 4: but he is an impediment to frankly, the public thinking
Speaker 4: that Joe Biden has a border plan. I mean, he's
Speaker 4: spent politically and I can't speak to the border policies
Speaker 4: and the leadership he has at the Homeland Security Department.
Speaker 4: But I think if I were the chief of staff
Speaker 4: at the White House, I'd be having an intimate conversation
Speaker 4: with Secretary of my Orcus about his future.
Speaker 2: Wow, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano. By the way, the
Speaker 2: majority of Leader Steve Scalise is back. So Mike Johnson
Speaker 2: thinks he's got the votes here. They better get it
Speaker 2: done before New York three. That's happening today. Of course,
Speaker 2: the vote to replace well to fill the seat left
Speaker 2: empty by George Santos, that could change the dynamic here,
Speaker 2: so the timing tonight is important.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: We had the voice now of niam Alika Henderson speaking
Speaker 2: of looking forward to this conversation. I always am Bloomberg
Speaker 2: opinion columnists. We've pulled her onto Balance of Power now
Speaker 2: for her second appearance. I'm so happy you're in the
Speaker 2: Washington bureau here because your fingers always on it, and
Speaker 2: I want to ask you about your column about the
Speaker 2: age problem.
Speaker 3: Nei.
Speaker 2: It's great to see you first.
Speaker 1: Though.
Speaker 2: This CPI is a big deal for this White House,
Speaker 2: and not in a good way. You know. Joe Biden's
Speaker 2: been pretty good about a plodding strong economic data, but
Speaker 2: when it gets to be good news on main Street,
Speaker 2: bad news on Wall Street. Sometimes you can't even tell anymore,
Speaker 2: because prices are one of the biggest problems that voters
Speaker 2: have with them.
Speaker 8: Yeah, listen, I was down in South Carolina talking to
Speaker 8: voters about the Democratic Primary supporting Joe Biden. Their big
Speaker 8: concern was prices, right, rent prices, egg prices, gas prices,
Speaker 8: and so you see those concerns. There was a time,
Speaker 8: a short window ago, where there seemed to be kind
Speaker 8: of optimism about the economy. Things were looking up. You
Speaker 8: saw the unemployment numbers. Those are better lass go around.
Speaker 8: But listen, I mean these are sort of the day
Speaker 8: to day realities that people feel and experience.
Speaker 6: Right.
Speaker 8: People don't experience the unemployment number, right, they experience how
Speaker 8: much does it cost to buy a bag of groceries
Speaker 8: at the Pigley wiggling. And so it's a real drag.
Speaker 8: I think if you're thinking about Joe Biden and running
Speaker 8: on his accomplishments, running on a stronger economy, they've got
Speaker 8: some challenge.
Speaker 2: Well, if we get another leg up inflation, certainly the
Speaker 2: timing to be horrible. Just as the White House gets
Speaker 2: ready to celebrate soft landing, maybe this thing heats up again,
Speaker 2: which you know, I guess could be good for some
Speaker 2: in terms of wages and so forth, but not good
Speaker 2: for the inflation narrative. When you add it to what
Speaker 2: you're writing about, we've got we've got some problems. When
Speaker 2: you add the border, we've got three problems there, and
Speaker 2: we can get to all of them. The Biden age
Speaker 2: question is an important one, and your column is great.
Speaker 2: Biden's team can't ignore his age problem is the headline,
Speaker 2: and I want to get to your solutions here because
Speaker 2: I think you want him to embrace it. But you know,
Speaker 2: John Stuart came back to The Daily Show last night,
Speaker 2: and you know it was one of the first issues
Speaker 2: he grabbed onto for our listeners and viewers on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Here's John Stuart back at the desk. We have two
Speaker 2: candidates who are chronicles. Did we lose him? But listen,
Speaker 2: he's joking about the age thing. Walk with me as
Speaker 2: as you are. And I find it interesting here because
Speaker 2: I think a lot of folks look back at that
Speaker 2: news conference last Friday as a turning point, potentially not
Speaker 2: for the better. At that news conference he held late
Speaker 2: at night in the White House, it's brought it from
Speaker 2: something that Democrats have been talking about maybe quietly, it's
Speaker 2: something we're talking about out loud now, and you say,
Speaker 2: go for it, embrace it. Be dark Brandon, How does
Speaker 2: he do that?
Speaker 8: Yeah, listen, I think you saw a glimpse of it
Speaker 8: a bit. He was in front of a group I
Speaker 8: think it was like legislatures or something like that, and
Speaker 8: he was sort of joking about his age. He said
Speaker 8: something like, listen, I've been around a long time. I
Speaker 8: do actually remember that, and the crowd laughed. I think
Speaker 8: moments like that sort of hang a lantern on his problem.
Speaker 8: Everybody knows this is a problem. Democrats have sort of
Speaker 8: privately talked about it and privately counseled the White House
Speaker 8: to address it more. I think one of the things
Speaker 8: he can do too is show that he has a
Speaker 8: big expert team. I was remembering Donald Trump, who you said,
Speaker 8: those big cabinet meetings that would be partly tele you know,
Speaker 8: the folks from TV would go in and see, you know,
Speaker 8: maybe the top five minutes of it. Everyone would go
Speaker 8: around and sort of obsequiously praise Donald Trump. Joe Biden
Speaker 8: doesn't necessarily need that, but that kind of show of
Speaker 8: force I think telegraphs to the American people and voters
Speaker 8: that a he's got a strong team. The team that
Speaker 8: he does have sees him as a leader and looks
Speaker 8: to him for guidance. So I think things like that
Speaker 8: would go a long way. The other thing is just
Speaker 8: get him out there more. This is clearly a white
Speaker 8: house that is nervous about putting the president.
Speaker 2: Well, is it true that he wants to get out more?
Speaker 8: You know, listen, you know there's always this tension with
Speaker 8: white houses, right the principal typically says they want to
Speaker 8: get out more, but they're being you know, sort of
Speaker 8: held back by other folks. Hard to believe though, right,
Speaker 8: you're the president, You're the leader of the free world. Yeah, exactly,
Speaker 8: so listen, I think putting him out there more would
Speaker 8: actually lesson the sort of attention and scrutiny that he
Speaker 8: gets because he doesn't do the kind of frequent press
Speaker 8: conferences that we've seen from former presidents. He passed up
Speaker 8: on the super Bowl this last Sunday. They should have
Speaker 8: probably put him out there. That's usually sort of a
Speaker 8: soft interview in some ways, and puts the president, I
Speaker 8: think in a light that he needs to be seen.
Speaker 8: And the thing about this president is he clearly has
Speaker 8: some memory lapses here and there. You saw him confuse
Speaker 8: the president of Mexico in the Mexican and the president
Speaker 8: of Egypt. I think he was thinking border, border, border,
Speaker 8: and so what. He also knows his stuff, right, I mean,
Speaker 8: he can go into detail about very complex foreign form.
Speaker 2: Pol's particular gaff was actually the end of a fairly
Speaker 2: eloquent answer on a totally unrelated topic. But nobody's going
Speaker 2: to remember that. Nobody seems to remember Donald Trump's gaffes either,
Speaker 2: or maybe just nobody cares when you're confusing Nikki Haley
Speaker 2: with Nancy Pelosi or pointing to the wrong This happens
Speaker 2: a lot for him as well well. Is part of
Speaker 2: embracing this also reminding people of Donald Trump's age.
Speaker 8: I think it's a small part of it, right, because
Speaker 8: the reality is that if you look at polling, voters
Speaker 8: aren't as concerned about Donald Trump's age and mental capacity
Speaker 8: as they are about Biden's. There is concern there, It's
Speaker 8: like forty eight percent for Trump and something like seventy
Speaker 8: six percent of voters are concerned about that for Biden.
Speaker 8: But there is a different sort of presentation. I think
Speaker 8: if you look at Donald Trump compared to Joe Biden.
Speaker 8: Joe Biden just frankly looks a little older, and he's
Speaker 8: only three years older, but he looks a little bit frailer,
Speaker 8: and it's partly because he's thinner than Donald Trump. Donald Trump,
Speaker 8: I'm sure, eats a lot of McDonald's cheeseburgers, which are yeah, yeah,
Speaker 8: which are delicious. Yeah, I'm a big fan of this
Speaker 8: cheeseburgers as well. And so it just hits different, as
Speaker 8: the kids like to say, in terms of the age factor.
Speaker 8: But yes, I think they should certainly do that.
Speaker 7: You know.
Speaker 8: Part of the issue I think with Donald Trump is
Speaker 8: there are so many other things that voters see when
Speaker 8: they look at Donald Trump. Right, he has problems with
Speaker 8: the truth, he has problems any number of things with
Speaker 8: January sixth, and sounding like a want to be dictator
Speaker 8: at times. So those are the concerns of Americans. Those
Speaker 8: are the concerns I think that the Biden administration is
Speaker 8: highlighting with age kind of low on the list in
Speaker 8: terms of what voters are concerned about.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just look, it reminds us that we don't
Speaker 2: all age the same way. I look, Donald Trump has
Speaker 2: four years on Joe Biden. Maybe you should say that
Speaker 2: the other way around, and four years ago Joe Biden
Speaker 2: was looking and sounding a lot different than he does now.
Speaker 2: Then you start wondering where they will both be four
Speaker 2: years from now. It's impossible to quantify. But this is
Speaker 2: why we have a problem. We talk about no labels,
Speaker 2: we talk about maybe a late swap here in the race.
Speaker 2: You're not allowing time for that, are you.
Speaker 3: These are the two.
Speaker 8: Guys, Yeah, these are the two folks.
Speaker 3: Listen, you can turn me around on that way.
Speaker 7: Yeah. I mean there's all.
Speaker 8: Sort of sort of fantas see scenarios, right Gavin Newsome
Speaker 8: comes in to save.
Speaker 3: The day, right about that? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 8: You know Kamala Harris, I think she just gave a
Speaker 8: recent interview saying that she's ready to serve you know,
Speaker 8: Nikki Haley staying in the race just in case something
Speaker 8: that happened, you know, happens with Donald Trump. But very
Speaker 8: likely these are going to be the people that Americans
Speaker 8: have to choose between in November, and one is seventy seven,
Speaker 8: the other is eighty one. I think he actually might
Speaker 8: be eighty two. Maybe by the time he's actually on
Speaker 8: the ballot. So it's it's something that Americans haven't faced before.
Speaker 8: It's not that Americans haven't had older presidents and older
Speaker 8: presidents possibly with some sort of impairment.
Speaker 5: Right.
Speaker 8: You think about, for instance, with ORW. Wilson, and then
Speaker 8: you think about Ronald Reagan exactly more recently. But those
Speaker 8: people weren't asking for four more years as they were
Speaker 8: dealing with those healthy important.
Speaker 2: We didn't have the twenty four to seven media psychologes exactly.
Speaker 2: Not to mention Friday night combative news conferences. Me and
Speaker 2: Alika Henderson, what a pleasure. We're going to do this
Speaker 2: more often. I hope you look for her columns at
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Opinion and at Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Joe Matthew
Speaker 2: in Washington. We're just getting started here on the fastest
Speaker 2: show in politics. Thanks for being with us on the radio,
Speaker 2: on the satellite, and YouTube. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Amocarplay and then
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Speaker 9: We did get a statement from President Biden after today's
Speaker 9: data didn't talk necessarily about CPI Specifically, the first line
Speaker 9: of the President's statement, today's report shows wage growth has
Speaker 9: been the strongest of any economic recovery in fifty years,
Speaker 9: though he did go on to point out inflation declined
Speaker 9: by two thirds from its peak, and he knows there's
Speaker 9: still work to do to lower cost Certainly, the data
Speaker 9: just that work still needs.
Speaker 3: To be done.
Speaker 2: You didn't talk about shelter costs and the statement did he?
Speaker 9: No, he did not.
Speaker 2: There are some problems here, yea, which is why the
Speaker 2: market is responding the way it did. This is all
Speaker 2: about the trajectory, right, and expectations.
Speaker 3: White House has a.
Speaker 2: Pretty good economic story to tell, but the market's not buying.
Speaker 9: This, absolutely not. As the market is now thinking, okay,
Speaker 9: maybe they weren't going to cut in March, we'd already
Speaker 9: priced that out. Then the question was May. Now it
Speaker 9: looks like the odds are on July, we're going to
Speaker 9: be in the second half of.
Speaker 2: The year and the second half potentially of a re
Speaker 2: election campaign. That's where we start our conversation with Anna Wong,
Speaker 2: who's with us here at the table today. From Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Economics and great to see you. We've talked so much
Speaker 2: about a potential soft landing and I wonder how this
Speaker 2: plays into it.
Speaker 7: Yeah, So I.
Speaker 5: Think today what's interesting is that we think that it's
Speaker 5: the seasonal seasonal variation that wrote this upset price in CPI,
Speaker 5: and also that you could see that some of the
Speaker 5: jumps is due to volatile categories like air FA errors
Speaker 5: and hotels, and usually they are the next month that
Speaker 5: could just go right down for the FED. What matters
Speaker 5: most is the core PCE deflator, and we saw from
Speaker 5: the CPI revisions last week that in fact the momentum
Speaker 5: of shelter prices housing rents was actually for a stronger
Speaker 5: disinflation momentum going into new year. A large part of
Speaker 5: that component is actually predictable based on real time private
Speaker 5: measures of rents, and so I think that today's CPI
Speaker 5: report doesn't really change the overall narrative that disinflation is
Speaker 5: making progress. And what the market is not pricing in today, however,
Speaker 5: is the report of small business surveys, which actually shows
Speaker 5: that small businesses are not planning to hire as many people,
Speaker 5: which actually would cause the FED to cut earlier than people.
Speaker 9: Thought, well, they're certainly thinking it won't be as early
Speaker 9: now today in light of the data, But we know
Speaker 9: that those expectations you are volatile as we consider whether
Speaker 9: it could be made maybe July. But City Group was
Speaker 9: actually out with a note yesterday, and I'm sure you
Speaker 9: noticed this, essentially saying that traders need to be pricing
Speaker 9: in the risk of the Fed hiking again, that they
Speaker 9: shouldn't necessarily be writing that off, and theoretically inflation data
Speaker 9: like what we are seeing today suggests that the Fed
Speaker 9: may think there could be more tightening out there that
Speaker 9: they need to do. Do you think that that risk
Speaker 9: is zero that there will be another hike this cycle?
Speaker 5: That's actually a very good question. Actually, AI thinks that
Speaker 5: City Group may be right. So we built this fedspeak
Speaker 5: index using machine learning, which takes into real time Bloomberg
Speaker 5: reporting on fed speak, and it actually has been flagging
Speaker 5: that the risk for a hike is actually non zero
Speaker 5: that in fact, based on the rhetoric of FED officials alone,
Speaker 5: it suggests that the could yeah, possibly be in play.
Speaker 2: Did you know we're using AI like this in our reporting, Kaylee,
Speaker 2: It's amazing.
Speaker 3: Do you have like a back room with this aim
Speaker 3: where this happening.
Speaker 5: Well, the AI is actually based on my reading of fetspeak,
Speaker 5: So in this case, the AI is more outfront than me. Well,
Speaker 5: I still think that the right cut is still the baseline,
Speaker 5: but it has been flagging to us that the hike
Speaker 5: is on the table.
Speaker 3: So we have a secret room somewhere.
Speaker 9: Well, but the human still has to feed information to
Speaker 9: the robot, and the robot then the humans.
Speaker 5: However, thereafter the robot has a mine of its own.
Speaker 3: That's incredible, it's pretty cool. Well, we are so cool
Speaker 3: at Bloomberg. This is why you know you're here.
Speaker 2: You mentioned airfares and hotels. Are we still revenge traveling
Speaker 2: out of COVID? This has never really stopped it.
Speaker 5: I think the revenge traveling is happening with baby boomers.
Speaker 5: You know, look at cruise bookings, look at all these
Speaker 5: that and and the baby boomers spending is based on
Speaker 5: stock market performance. I think as long as S and
Speaker 5: P five hundred is rallying, we will continue to see
Speaker 5: more excess early retirement and more spending by baby boomers.
Speaker 8: Interesting, I like cruises.
Speaker 9: I'm not a baby boomer.
Speaker 8: I'm a MILLENNI and I'm.
Speaker 9: A cruiser but I know cruisers are polarizing.
Speaker 5: So you won't have time to go this month because
Speaker 5: you are here.
Speaker 9: Well, that's very true. Twenty twenty four not a great
Speaker 9: year for travel for Joe and I because there is
Speaker 9: this whole election cycle going on and the course inflation,
Speaker 9: yes and does play.
Speaker 3: And thank you, it's great to see you.
Speaker 2: Thanks for your recording, and along chief economist Bloomberg Economics
Speaker 2: with an awfully important report today. Kaylie.
Speaker 9: Absolutely. Now, of course, as we consider inflation and what
Speaker 9: the economy is doing and how that factors into the
Speaker 9: minds of voters, we should get a read.
Speaker 3: On how people are actually voting today.
Speaker 9: Yeah, because people are voting in the state of New
Speaker 9: York very district if they are breathing the snow. And
Speaker 9: Kyle Condick, the managing editor of Sabado's Crystal Ball the
Speaker 9: University of Virginia Center for Politics, I've been has been
Speaker 9: following New York three in addition to polls nationally. If
Speaker 9: we could just start there, though, Kyle obviously at Swazi
Speaker 9: versus Pillop, the Democrat and the Republican. This snowstorm, though,
Speaker 9: could potentially make what was going to be a low
Speaker 9: turn out vote even lower turnout. Who would that benefit most.
Speaker 10: Probably benefit Swazi. So just to put it in perspective,
Speaker 10: about eighty thousand votes were cast basically early in advance
Speaker 10: in twenty twenty two. It's the same thing in this
Speaker 10: special election, about eighty thousand early votes for you know,
Speaker 10: cast before election day, but that was only about thirty
Speaker 10: percent of the total votes that ended up being cast,
Speaker 10: meaning about seventy percent were cast on election day in
Speaker 10: twenty twenty two. This time, you know, you'd always expect
Speaker 10: a special election to be lower than a you know,
Speaker 10: than a mid term turnout, and so, you know, I
Speaker 10: think the percentage of the votes that are cast on
Speaker 10: election day are going to be a lot smaller than
Speaker 10: they were in twenty twenty two. And of course that
Speaker 10: was an election that George Santos won by about eight points.
Speaker 10: The early electorate in terms of registration was slightly more
Speaker 10: democratic in twenty in this special election than it was
Speaker 10: in twenty twenty two. Of course, election day was much
Speaker 10: more Republican leaning, you know, in terms of in terms
Speaker 10: of performance in twenty twenty two. You know, line here is,
Speaker 10: I do think that the snowstorm could have some impact here,
Speaker 10: and again if it does. It's probably more helpful to
Speaker 10: Swazi than a pilloup.
Speaker 2: This is a district won by Joe Biden by eight
Speaker 2: points in twenty twenty, yet this race appears to be
Speaker 2: too close to call. Sienna had Swazi up by four,
Speaker 2: I think you had the margin of error, and you
Speaker 2: know a snowstorm could in fact make the difference here. Kyle,
Speaker 2: what does that say about democratic politics in New York
Speaker 2: since twenty twenty.
Speaker 10: So Swazi himself said it in the lead up to
Speaker 10: the election that you know Democrats have basically lost all
Speaker 10: the elections of consequence and in.
Speaker 3: That you know, in that area, and you know Long.
Speaker 10: Island Nasau County since the twenty twenty election. You know,
Speaker 10: bad results in twenty twenty one, bad results in twenty
Speaker 10: twenty two, when you know Republican House gains in New
Speaker 10: York State, both on Long Island than state were arguably
Speaker 10: the difference between Republicans winning or not winning a US
Speaker 10: House that year, and then Republicans had some more victories
Speaker 10: in the area in twenty twenty three. So, you know,
Speaker 10: a lot of people on both sides of the aisle,
Speaker 10: when you ask them about this race, they think that
Speaker 10: the Biden plus eight maybe overstates how democratic the district is,
Speaker 10: particularly at this particular point in time. You know, I
Speaker 10: sometimes think if you picked up this district at Biden
Speaker 10: plus eight with the same demographics and you put it
Speaker 10: in like suburban Philadelphia or suburban Detroit or something, Democrats
Speaker 10: might actually have felt better about this race. And you know, again,
Speaker 10: I think I'd probably still rather be Swazi than pill Up,
Speaker 10: particularly based on the fact that it looks like election
Speaker 10: day turn out may not be that great, although polls
Speaker 10: don't close until nine o'clock, so there's plenty of time
Speaker 10: for that to change. But obviously both sides were spending
Speaker 10: like this was the closest competitive race, and that's what
Speaker 10: the public polls said, and I think that's what the
Speaker 10: private polling was indicating as well.
Speaker 9: Yeah, pretty remarkable the amount of spend we have seen.
Speaker 9: Considering ultimately, this may be a seat that's only held
Speaker 9: for eleven months because it's February of twenty twenty three,
Speaker 9: and there's going to be an election in November of
Speaker 9: twenty twenty four, and there could be some redistricting to
Speaker 9: her here as well. Obviously that's because the seat was
Speaker 9: vacated in a historic Ouster of George Santos, as you mentioned,
Speaker 9: was it a mistake for Swazi not to go after
Speaker 9: the Santos legacy specifically harder than he did.
Speaker 10: You know, you have heard some of that from from
Speaker 10: Swazi and from Democrats, because Philip has not been an
Speaker 10: unusual you know, particularly an energetic camp campaigner. You know,
Speaker 10: media has been sort of critical of her for not
Speaker 10: talking to the press, which you know, I don't know
Speaker 10: if that necessarily matters all that much, but but you know,
Speaker 10: she hasn't been maybe as visible I think as uh
Speaker 10: as maybe some Republicans would would would have liked.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 10: And you know, there is some indication just historically speaking
Speaker 10: that you know, if if ah, if a member has
Speaker 10: to resign, uh that there's a special election, the party
Speaker 10: of the member resigned sometimes pays a price in the
Speaker 10: special election. And so maybe that also helps helps help
Speaker 10: Swazi in in this race, uh, you know, as effectively
Speaker 10: the challenger in the seat, even though he used to
Speaker 10: be the incumbent prior to twenty twenty two. So that
Speaker 10: that's a factor to watch. But I would say that
Speaker 10: that did come up to some degree in this campaign.
Speaker 2: Has George Santos been forgotten at one point, this was
Speaker 2: going to be a Democratic seat for the rest of
Speaker 2: our lives because of what he pulled off. Now we're
Speaker 2: hardly talking about him, at least in the conversation surrounding
Speaker 2: this special election.
Speaker 10: People have pretty short memories, I think, although Santos himself
Speaker 10: has remained he's kind of this celebrity now. He you know,
Speaker 10: during the when the House Republicans failed to get through
Speaker 10: the impeachment of Secretary of Homeland Security majorcas recently he
Speaker 10: tweeted out missed me yet, which was kind of funny.
Speaker 10: It was like those George W. Bush billboards after Obama
Speaker 10: took office. It was kind of a funny inside joke.
Speaker 10: But Santos is, you know, he's still basically a public figure.
Speaker 10: Although you know he's going to have his own reckoning
Speaker 10: with the law. It seems like sooner rather than later.
Speaker 10: But you know, people move on pretty quickly.
Speaker 9: I want to go back to the point you were
Speaker 9: making a few minutes ago, Kyle, about how if this
Speaker 9: district were a suburb instead of another city like Philadelphia,
Speaker 9: instead of being on island, it may be different. To
Speaker 9: what extent should we be viewing today's vote as a
Speaker 9: litmus test for New York State broadly in twenty twenty four,
Speaker 9: and then just broadly national electoral politics. What is it
Speaker 9: realistically going to tell us?
Speaker 10: I would caution against drawing too many conclusions from any
Speaker 10: special election. You know, generally speaking, the special elections in
Speaker 10: mostly state legislative races. But we've had since the twenty
Speaker 10: since the Dobbs decision in Midsummer of twenty twenty two,
Speaker 10: you know, general speaking, has gone pretty well for Democrats,
Speaker 10: and if the Democrats do win the day, it would
Speaker 10: be within in keeping them with that. But you know,
Speaker 10: again New York has been pretty bad for Democrats. It
Speaker 10: may not necessarily be comparable directly to some of the
Speaker 10: other swing states. So again, for lots of different reasons,
Speaker 10: don't make broad conclusions about this. It is important though,
Speaker 10: in the sense that the Democrats only need to win
Speaker 10: five more seats than they want in twenty twenty two
Speaker 10: to win the House back, and this could effectively be
Speaker 10: one of them. I think if Swazi wins today, I
Speaker 10: think he's probably favored going into November, particularly if you
Speaker 10: get some help and redistricting, which as you mentioned, is
Speaker 10: another wild card.
Speaker 2: We're talking with Kyle Condick from Sabado's Crystal Ball, where
Speaker 2: he's managing editor with an eye on New York three,
Speaker 2: the special election that's underway today to fill the seat
Speaker 2: once held by George Santos.
Speaker 3: Poll's on Long Island. None close till.
Speaker 2: Nine o'clock tonight, Kyle, this is going to be a
Speaker 2: late call.
Speaker 10: Huh, Yeah, that's right. And again that might also mitigate
Speaker 10: some of the problems with people voting because of the
Speaker 10: snow today. At least if people do want to break
Speaker 10: the elements and the weather gets better, they'll have an
Speaker 10: opportunity to do so. And of course there is fairly
Speaker 10: robust you know early slash absentee voting in New York State.
Speaker 10: That didn't always used to be the case. But so
Speaker 10: again you had an early slash you know, absentee vote
Speaker 10: that was very comparable to what was done in the
Speaker 10: twenty twenty two midterm. So you know, people did have
Speaker 10: an opportunity to vote in advance here, which really is
Speaker 10: the whole point of having those certain options.
Speaker 9: So today's bringing this special election a snowstorm with it.
Speaker 9: It also brought inflation data, Kyle that we were speaking
Speaker 9: about a moment ago hotter than expected, not necessarily heading
Speaker 9: in the right direction if you're an incumbent to what
Speaker 9: extent is the economy still weighing top of minds for voters,
Speaker 9: not just in New York three, but broadly, or has
Speaker 9: it now been supplanted by immigration in the border.
Speaker 10: It seems like the economy and immigration are two, you know,
Speaker 10: big factors and people's perceptions of things. You know, Biden
Speaker 10: is not perceived as doing particularly well on either of
Speaker 10: those important issues, and so you know, any White House
Speaker 10: would want the economic news to be as good as possible.
Speaker 10: You know, I think you all were just talking before
Speaker 10: about how you could certainly could point to some positive
Speaker 10: indicators on the economy. But you know, inflation is still
Speaker 10: a problem. And again, no matter what the rate is,
Speaker 10: I do think people sort of feel higher prices and
Speaker 10: just paying more for stuff than did a few years ago.
Speaker 10: And that would be the case even if you know,
Speaker 10: if inflation itself, the efficient inflation rate is getting smaller.
Speaker 10: You know, the higher prices.
Speaker 9: Still means prices are going up.
Speaker 2: Ever, not be talking about this with Kyle Connor. Great
Speaker 2: to see Kyle, Thank you. We'll keep you posted, of
Speaker 2: course on the results from New York three. I'm guessing
Speaker 2: that's going to be tomorrow, Kaylee. Right here on Balance
Speaker 2: of Power.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast can
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Speaker 2: Welcome, indeed to the Tuesday. Is it really only Tuesday?
Speaker 2: A lot's happened already this week? The Tuesday edition of
Speaker 2: Balance of Power fat Tuesday's Hot of an expected CPI.
Speaker 2: And look at this something that got done in the
Speaker 2: United States Senate. I'm as amazed as you are to
Speaker 2: wake up to the head. They worked all night, they
Speaker 2: went through. It's almost six o'clock in the morning when
Speaker 2: it passed seventy to twenty nine. This is the National
Speaker 2: Security Supplemental Emergency Supplemental request funding for Ukraine, for Israel
Speaker 2: and Taiwan. The question remains what happens when it goes
Speaker 2: to the House, because the Speaker preemptively said that this
Speaker 2: would never pass the House, and it doesn't appear that
Speaker 2: he even wants to bring it to the floor, so
Speaker 2: we'll find out about that. It's going to take a minute.
Speaker 2: Arriving in town in the middle of all of this
Speaker 2: is maroosh Schefjevich, Executive Vice President of the European Commission
Speaker 2: for the European Green Deal, Interinstitutional Relations and Foresight. How
Speaker 2: about that for a title, mister Vice President. Welcome to Washington.
Speaker 2: How did I do with the pronouncer? Absolutely perfect? A
Speaker 2: great linguist, that is all I had. No one's ever
Speaker 2: said that before. Thank you, Welcome to the nation's capital.
Speaker 2: It's great to see you here. Your meeting with lawmakers,
Speaker 2: with members of the administration, with energy stakeholders here and
Speaker 2: energy cooperation against the backdrop of this war in Ukraine
Speaker 2: is your priority here as you from meeting to meeting.
Speaker 2: Do you worry about this debate here about funding Ukraine,
Speaker 2: about the US potentially pulling back? What are you hearing
Speaker 2: as you have meetings around.
Speaker 7: So of course we are following it very very closely,
Speaker 7: and I know that these are difficult decisions to make,
Speaker 7: especially in current political circumstances on both sides of the Atlantic.
Speaker 7: But we delivered. We just approved fifty billion euros for Ukraine.
Speaker 7: So altogether our assistance so far is one hundred and
Speaker 7: fifty billion euros, which is I would say at this
Speaker 7: stage twice as high as the American one, even though
Speaker 7: we of course clearly know that without US, especially the
Speaker 7: military supplies, the situation in Ukraine would be very, very dramatic.
Speaker 7: So we've clearly been kind of pleading, hoping, and I'm
Speaker 7: arguing that how the US component of this assistant is
Speaker 7: absolutely crucial. If the Ukrainians need help sometimes it's now
Speaker 7: and I and I hope that both of us will
Speaker 7: deliver and will will help Ukraine to defend itself.
Speaker 2: Do European leaders believe it's just a matter of time
Speaker 2: for the US to complete its debate and and and
Speaker 2: get this done, that it will eventually happen.
Speaker 7: I we've been really encouraged but very strong statements coming
Speaker 7: from the President Biden and from the White House and
Speaker 7: also administration officialists. They have been very clear that they
Speaker 7: want this happen, very much encouraged by the votes in
Speaker 7: the Senate. But of course I know that this is
Speaker 7: not the last step in that in that process. But
Speaker 7: I mean, looking at what's happening in in in Ukraine,
Speaker 7: I think it's it's It's clearly should be imperative to
Speaker 7: to help them, to get them the means to defend
Speaker 7: themselves because they are also, you know, defending our set
Speaker 7: of values.
Speaker 2: Well, you're you've got Llen g on your agenda as well.
Speaker 2: You had an important meeting this morning, I know, executives.
Speaker 2: I saw on Twitter you were meeting with President Biden's
Speaker 2: energy advisor Almos Hochstein, who's spent a lot of time
Speaker 2: with us here at Bloomberg talking about energy policy. What
Speaker 2: did you tell you about the administration's decision to halt
Speaker 2: LNG export approvals in its potential impact on Europe.
Speaker 7: I think that also in my meetings yesterday with AMAS
Speaker 7: and other representatives of the administration, I was highlighting the
Speaker 7: fact that probably this is new for United States of America,
Speaker 7: but US has really become the guarenter of the global
Speaker 7: energy security. So any statement coming from the Washington d
Speaker 7: C on the METU of LERG on the metal of
Speaker 7: energy energy supplies, immediately I was kind of rippling effect
Speaker 7: all across all across the global global markets. And therefore
Speaker 7: I have to say that I was very pleased yesterday.
Speaker 7: I was really sure that this would not affect Europe
Speaker 7: in and coming a couple of years that by twenty
Speaker 7: thirty actually the export capacity of US LNG sector should double,
Speaker 7: and that US will will play this very important role
Speaker 7: helping us to shift away from from Russian fossil supplies,
Speaker 7: because without US LNG supplies, I mean, it would be
Speaker 7: in a very very tough place. Anyway, We've been in
Speaker 7: the worst energy crisis since seventies over the last two years.
Speaker 7: So for US, it's of course extremely important. And if
Speaker 7: you look a little bit beyond Europe, and therefore my
Speaker 7: underscoring of this, of this global responsibility of the United
Speaker 7: States is the fact that I was working very closely
Speaker 7: with John Kerry in Dubai. Yeah, there is clear pledge
Speaker 7: to phase out CALL. And if you look that gas
Speaker 7: has only half of carbon intensity of CALL, hut of
Speaker 7: the guys would be needed in India and Southeast Asia
Speaker 7: and all the places. So I think that clearly the
Speaker 7: LNG sector of US would have I would say, global
Speaker 7: role to play.
Speaker 2: Is it safe to say then that the US has
Speaker 2: provided you assurances when it comes to LERG supply while
Speaker 2: these reviews day played.
Speaker 7: Yes, I was readure yesterday by all my interlocutors including
Speaker 7: in the discussion with mister John Podesta. On top of it,
Speaker 7: it was highlighted that there is also reference to eventually
Speaker 7: then and eventual situations of the emergency character. And we
Speaker 7: had a very very good dialogue with the administrations throughout
Speaker 7: the years since the war in Ukraine started. Then, I
Speaker 7: think that the fact that US LNG is now number
Speaker 7: one exported to Europe just proved that we that we
Speaker 7: found the solution and fifty six billion cubing meters came.
Speaker 7: It was even six billion about that political agreement which
Speaker 7: President Biden had with my boss President from the line,
Speaker 7: and of course we hope for more in the future.
Speaker 7: So I was actually presenting to the LNG exporters how
Speaker 7: our common purchase of gas platform functions, how we're aggregating demand,
Speaker 7: how we are bringing new potential customers to them, and
Speaker 7: I was also highlighting that we are going to offer
Speaker 7: a new product where the contracts up to five years
Speaker 7: would be now possible, and we are starting the market
Speaker 7: survey even on a longer term up to twenty years,
Speaker 7: depending if that would be interesting for buyers in Europe
Speaker 7: and bidders in the States. And therefore we just wanted
Speaker 7: to start the conversations with them.
Speaker 2: So five years of security is what you're talking about here.
Speaker 2: That sounds like you get almost to twenty thirty when
Speaker 2: this will all be done in the US.
Speaker 7: I think that when I was referring to the five years,
Speaker 7: I was referring to the contracts. Now, sure biders could
Speaker 7: sign on the platform which we created for common purchase
Speaker 7: of GUS, but I know that a lot of like
Speaker 7: trade is going also outside of the platform. And most
Speaker 7: of the bits which came from you as a legibin
Speaker 7: well placed in Europe, and they supplied fifty six billion
Speaker 7: quebek meters, which was very important because just to give
Speaker 7: you one figure, before the war, we've been important up
Speaker 7: to one hundred and fifty blink ubig meters from Russia.
Speaker 7: Now we're down to forty and we had to found
Speaker 7: new one hundred blank cube meters within the space of
Speaker 7: one year. So I mean you would appreciate how challenging
Speaker 7: that was. And we even had to curtail the consumption,
Speaker 7: lower some energy activity and energy intensive industries. And of
Speaker 7: course we want again to perform at our optimal potential
Speaker 7: if it comes to European economy.
Speaker 2: I have to ask you about stories that were reporting
Speaker 2: about Venture Global. What can you tell us about this
Speaker 2: ongoing dispute with Ventury Global and the contracts at BP
Speaker 2: and Shell and some European companies say should start now?
Speaker 7: Of course, I mean it's very difficult of for us
Speaker 7: to comment because I understand that it's under the litigation,
Speaker 7: so most probably there will be cord hearing and court
Speaker 7: eventually decision in that regard. So we haven't seen the contracts.
Speaker 7: And what is very important for us that also these
Speaker 7: situations that was as soon as possible because we want
Speaker 7: also the long term contracts which have been signed to
Speaker 7: be to be respected and appropriate level of gas supplied
Speaker 7: to EU because I am absolutely convinced that we are
Speaker 7: closest allies of the United States of America and we
Speaker 7: go through a rap patch with the two words very
Speaker 7: close to our borders with all the repercussions.
Speaker 2: You might imagine you're aiming for carbon neutrality in twenty fifty.
Speaker 2: The UN asks for twenty forty.
Speaker 3: What's the difference.
Speaker 7: I think we of course with the huge difference is
Speaker 7: that to be to become carbon neutral. I mean Europe
Speaker 7: believes that we will be the first carbon neutral continent.
Speaker 7: I think the United States of America have the similar
Speaker 7: similar ambition and and it's no mean mean feet It's
Speaker 7: extremely challenging because I think we progress a lot with
Speaker 7: the energy sector, but to kind of phase out for
Speaker 7: self fuels, for heating and cooling of the buildings, from
Speaker 7: from transport, from aviation, it's it's it's it's it's a challenge.
Speaker 7: So therefore we are I would carefully planning how this
Speaker 7: can be done. A lot would depend on the on
Speaker 7: the technological development. And therefore I was so thrilled when
Speaker 7: I visited M I T this week and I was
Speaker 7: on Saturday in the Fusion lab and I and I
Speaker 7: think that I saw the future because I mean, these guys,
Speaker 7: what they're doing there is it's pretty impressive. I'm glad
Speaker 7: that this is EU US corporation that are also European
Speaker 7: big companies investing in the adventure and that could bring
Speaker 7: us the clean energy you need.
Speaker 2: Fascinating conversation. He's the Executive Vice President of the European
Speaker 2: Commission for European Green Deal, inter Institutional Relations and Foresight.
Speaker 2: I don't know how you fit it all on a
Speaker 2: business card, but we thank you. Minosh Chefshevich. Great to
Speaker 2: see you in Washington. Get home safe, good.
Speaker 3: Luck with your meetings.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
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