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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Broun Auto with the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Balance of Power. On

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Speaker 2: this same day that the Senate actually passed something they stayed.

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Speaker 3: All night that wasn't originally the plan, but they just.

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Speaker 2: Decided to go for it, you know, recess time and

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Speaker 2: all that, passing the National Security Supplemental seventy to twenty nine.

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Speaker 2: If you're playing along on your home game, now, we

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Speaker 2: know that this has been called da in the House

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Speaker 2: by the Speaker, and you gotta love Washington. He's out

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Speaker 2: with what they were calling yesterday a preemptive rejection. Why

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Speaker 2: wait for the bill to pass, you know, preemptively quote

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Speaker 2: in the absence of having received any single border policy

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Speaker 2: change from the Senate, remembering Republicans didn't want the border

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Speaker 2: deal attached. The House will have to continue to work

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Speaker 2: on its own will on these matters. America deserves better

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Speaker 2: than the Senate's status quo unquote sixty billion dollars on

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Speaker 2: the line for Ukraine, billions more for Israel and Taiwan.

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Speaker 2: As we assembled our panel, Rick Davis and Jeanie shan

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Speaker 2: Zeina are with us, glad to say Bloomberg Politics contributors

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Speaker 2: to help us make sense of it all.

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Speaker 3: What do you think, Rick, It passed wasn't.

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Speaker 2: Overwhelming, but it passed with a pretty good number here.

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Speaker 2: Will it ever see the light of day now that

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Speaker 2: it's gone through the Senate?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think you got to give it

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Speaker 3: its due.

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Speaker 4: If someone said a month ago that this was going

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Speaker 4: to pass without homeline security, without border security attached to it,

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Speaker 4: by seventy votes in the Senate, you would have said,

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Speaker 4: no way, that's not going to happen. Well, it happened,

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Speaker 4: and that gives it enough impetus to be serious when

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Speaker 4: it hits the House. And as you point out, Joe,

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Speaker 4: I mean, like I am very dizzy with the back

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Speaker 4: and forth between the Speaker and the majority leader of

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Speaker 4: the Senate. You know, we're not going to take this

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Speaker 4: without without border security. Put on the border security. We're

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Speaker 4: not going to take it with this border security. Take

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Speaker 4: off the word scurity. We're not going to take it

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Speaker 4: without border security. I mean, like, oh my god, I mean,

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Speaker 4: is this the craziest debate you've ever seen?

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Speaker 5: Uh?

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Speaker 4: It just it lacks seriousness.

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Speaker 3: It's wacky.

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Speaker 2: Aid for Ukraine has never been so close at least

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Speaker 2: most recent stretch, Genie, or felt so far away at

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Speaker 2: the same time. Will this lead to a new build

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Speaker 2: and potentially in the House or just a stalemate?

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Speaker 6: You know, my vote is on a stalemate. Forgive me

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Speaker 6: for being pessimistic. But when he comes out and I

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Speaker 6: love the phrase, you know, the preemptive rejection. That's a

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Speaker 6: great way to put it.

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Speaker 5: You know.

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Speaker 6: Chris Murphy sent out a tweet last night or an

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Speaker 6: X last night, which really summarized it and really to

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Speaker 6: Rick's point. He basically said, the speaker requested border security.

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Speaker 6: We did that, we put it on, the speaker said

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Speaker 6: no deal, We took it off. We sent it back

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Speaker 6: to him without that, and he said no, wait a minute,

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Speaker 6: we need border deal. And then Chris Murphy ended by saying,

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Speaker 6: w something f And that is really where many of

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Speaker 6: us find ourselves because what is happening you wanted it,

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Speaker 6: you don't and lost in this is the reality that

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Speaker 6: this is money very much needed, and very much supported

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Speaker 6: and even supported by some of the Republicans in the

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Speaker 6: Senate who are now speaking out against it. At one

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Speaker 6: point at least they supported it, like Lindsey Graham. So

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Speaker 6: it is head scratching when you think about it. And

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Speaker 6: I don't think this sees the light of day. I

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Speaker 6: don't think a discharge petition is going to get this done.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you mentioned Lindsay Graham the goalpost keep moving here, Rick,

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Speaker 2: it wasn't just the border component. And I'm still a

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Speaker 2: little bit dizzy and confused from all of that. But

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Speaker 2: now the idea is that this money should be in

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Speaker 2: the form of a loan, maybe even a zero interest

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Speaker 2: loan with no do date. Senator Graham parroting Donald Trump's

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Speaker 2: idea here to say quote it should be a loan

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Speaker 2: to the countries in question, as suggested by President Trump.

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Speaker 3: So we've just.

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Speaker 2: Given up the ghost here on Senate or House leadership.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump is running Capitol Hill.

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Speaker 3: Well, he's certainly running the House. We've already come to

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Speaker 3: that conclusion.

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Speaker 4: That's one of the reasons you've had this kind of

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Speaker 4: crazy reconsideration of all these debates.

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Speaker 3: But I think there's still a fight going on in

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Speaker 3: the Senate.

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Speaker 4: The fact that this bill passed you with twenty two

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Speaker 4: Republican votes indicated in the Senate that Mitch McConnell still

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Speaker 4: has a voice and he may be the last man

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Speaker 4: standing in a voice against Donald Trump and this sort

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Speaker 4: of haphazard foreign policy national security. Lindsey Graham caved under

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Speaker 4: the pressure of Donald Trump, saying no, it's got to

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Speaker 4: be my way, the highway invented this new loan program

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Speaker 4: and it's just a complete non starter on Capitol Hill.

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Speaker 4: And it's shocking and surprising to me, frankly, that someone

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Speaker 4: with the statue that Lindsay Graham has would ape the

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump line so quickly.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, how about that.

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Speaker 2: Well, look, we've got a lot of experience here in

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Speaker 2: Rick and Jenie, and nobody seems to know exactly where

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Speaker 2: this is going to go in the House. We do

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Speaker 2: know there will be an impeachment vote later on today.

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Speaker 2: Alejandro Majorcus up for round two. Remember the first one failed.

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Speaker 2: Al Green, we talked to him from his hospital bed,

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Speaker 2: high drama. I don't know if that's going to be

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Speaker 2: possible this time around, Genie. And if the House does

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Speaker 2: impeach Secretary in my orcus, what does that mean for

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Speaker 2: the future of any border deal happening?

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Speaker 6: You know, a border deal this year is simply off

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Speaker 6: the table because the Republicans who asked for it decided

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Speaker 6: they didn't want it when Donald Trump told them they

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Speaker 6: couldn't do it. And that's the reality. They probably will

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Speaker 6: get my Orcus impeached today, but that is a non starter,

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Speaker 6: that is dead on arrival in the Senate, going to

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Speaker 6: go anywhere. But it is just indicative of this do

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Speaker 6: nothing Congress except the political bidding of Donald Trump. And

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Speaker 6: that is simply where we are today. This is was

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Speaker 6: disastrous the first to vote that Mike Johnson let them

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Speaker 6: have on this that they lost, and when they do

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Speaker 6: get it, and they probably will today, it's equally as

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Speaker 6: disastrous because all it's doing is again the bidding of

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Speaker 6: Donald Trump and nothing for the American people. You don't

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Speaker 6: impeach because you disagree with somebody's policy. What you do

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Speaker 6: when you disagree is you win elections and get your

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Speaker 6: own guy or woman in there.

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Speaker 2: William Belknapp resigned moments before the impeachment vote almost one

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty years ago. Rick that was Ulysses S.

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Speaker 2: Grant's secretary of War he was going to be impeached

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Speaker 2: over a kickback scheme involving government contracts. This has actually

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Speaker 2: never happened. He resigned before the vote. Will this be

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Speaker 2: the first and history for a love.

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Speaker 4: Your History lesson?

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Speaker 3: Too bad?

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Speaker 4: This wasn't as spicy as that one.

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Speaker 7: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I mean, look, I think my if Secretary of my

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Speaker 4: Orcus was reading the history and the tea leaves.

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Speaker 3: I think he would just take himself out.

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Speaker 4: Of this, this this debate. He serves at the pleasure

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Speaker 4: of the President. Obviously, the President doesn't want to fire him.

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Speaker 4: He hasn't really done anything wrong as the President views it,

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Speaker 4: but he is an impediment to frankly, the public thinking

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Speaker 4: that Joe Biden has a border plan. I mean, he's

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Speaker 4: spent politically and I can't speak to the border policies

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Speaker 4: and the leadership he has at the Homeland Security Department.

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Speaker 4: But I think if I were the chief of staff

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Speaker 4: at the White House, I'd be having an intimate conversation

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Speaker 4: with Secretary of my Orcus about his future.

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Speaker 2: Wow, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano. By the way, the

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Speaker 2: majority of Leader Steve Scalise is back. So Mike Johnson

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Speaker 2: thinks he's got the votes here. They better get it

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Speaker 2: done before New York three. That's happening today. Of course,

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Speaker 2: the vote to replace well to fill the seat left

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Speaker 2: empty by George Santos, that could change the dynamic here,

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Speaker 2: so the timing tonight is important.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

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Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 1: roud Oto with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also

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Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: We had the voice now of niam Alika Henderson speaking

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Speaker 2: of looking forward to this conversation. I always am Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: opinion columnists. We've pulled her onto Balance of Power now

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Speaker 2: for her second appearance. I'm so happy you're in the

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Speaker 2: Washington bureau here because your fingers always on it, and

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Speaker 2: I want to ask you about your column about the

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Speaker 2: age problem.

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Speaker 3: Nei.

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Speaker 2: It's great to see you first.

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Speaker 1: Though.

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Speaker 2: This CPI is a big deal for this White House,

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Speaker 2: and not in a good way. You know. Joe Biden's

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Speaker 2: been pretty good about a plodding strong economic data, but

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Speaker 2: when it gets to be good news on main Street,

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Speaker 2: bad news on Wall Street. Sometimes you can't even tell anymore,

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Speaker 2: because prices are one of the biggest problems that voters

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Speaker 2: have with them.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, listen, I was down in South Carolina talking to

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Speaker 8: voters about the Democratic Primary supporting Joe Biden. Their big

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Speaker 8: concern was prices, right, rent prices, egg prices, gas prices,

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Speaker 8: and so you see those concerns. There was a time,

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Speaker 8: a short window ago, where there seemed to be kind

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Speaker 8: of optimism about the economy. Things were looking up. You

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Speaker 8: saw the unemployment numbers. Those are better lass go around.

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Speaker 8: But listen, I mean these are sort of the day

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Speaker 8: to day realities that people feel and experience.

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Speaker 6: Right.

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Speaker 8: People don't experience the unemployment number, right, they experience how

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Speaker 8: much does it cost to buy a bag of groceries

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Speaker 8: at the Pigley wiggling. And so it's a real drag.

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Speaker 8: I think if you're thinking about Joe Biden and running

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Speaker 8: on his accomplishments, running on a stronger economy, they've got

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Speaker 8: some challenge.

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Speaker 2: Well, if we get another leg up inflation, certainly the

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Speaker 2: timing to be horrible. Just as the White House gets

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Speaker 2: ready to celebrate soft landing, maybe this thing heats up again,

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Speaker 2: which you know, I guess could be good for some

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Speaker 2: in terms of wages and so forth, but not good

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Speaker 2: for the inflation narrative. When you add it to what

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Speaker 2: you're writing about, we've got we've got some problems. When

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Speaker 2: you add the border, we've got three problems there, and

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Speaker 2: we can get to all of them. The Biden age

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Speaker 2: question is an important one, and your column is great.

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Speaker 2: Biden's team can't ignore his age problem is the headline,

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Speaker 2: and I want to get to your solutions here because

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Speaker 2: I think you want him to embrace it. But you know,

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Speaker 2: John Stuart came back to The Daily Show last night,

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Speaker 2: and you know it was one of the first issues

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Speaker 2: he grabbed onto for our listeners and viewers on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Here's John Stuart back at the desk. We have two

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Speaker 2: candidates who are chronicles. Did we lose him? But listen,

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Speaker 2: he's joking about the age thing. Walk with me as

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Speaker 2: as you are. And I find it interesting here because

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Speaker 2: I think a lot of folks look back at that

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Speaker 2: news conference last Friday as a turning point, potentially not

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Speaker 2: for the better. At that news conference he held late

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Speaker 2: at night in the White House, it's brought it from

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Speaker 2: something that Democrats have been talking about maybe quietly, it's

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Speaker 2: something we're talking about out loud now, and you say,

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Speaker 2: go for it, embrace it. Be dark Brandon, How does

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Speaker 2: he do that?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, listen, I think you saw a glimpse of it

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Speaker 8: a bit. He was in front of a group I

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Speaker 8: think it was like legislatures or something like that, and

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Speaker 8: he was sort of joking about his age. He said

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Speaker 8: something like, listen, I've been around a long time. I

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Speaker 8: do actually remember that, and the crowd laughed. I think

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Speaker 8: moments like that sort of hang a lantern on his problem.

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Speaker 8: Everybody knows this is a problem. Democrats have sort of

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Speaker 8: privately talked about it and privately counseled the White House

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Speaker 8: to address it more. I think one of the things

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Speaker 8: he can do too is show that he has a

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Speaker 8: big expert team. I was remembering Donald Trump, who you said,

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Speaker 8: those big cabinet meetings that would be partly tele you know,

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Speaker 8: the folks from TV would go in and see, you know,

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Speaker 8: maybe the top five minutes of it. Everyone would go

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Speaker 8: around and sort of obsequiously praise Donald Trump. Joe Biden

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Speaker 8: doesn't necessarily need that, but that kind of show of

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Speaker 8: force I think telegraphs to the American people and voters

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Speaker 8: that a he's got a strong team. The team that

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Speaker 8: he does have sees him as a leader and looks

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Speaker 8: to him for guidance. So I think things like that

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Speaker 8: would go a long way. The other thing is just

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Speaker 8: get him out there more. This is clearly a white

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Speaker 8: house that is nervous about putting the president.

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Speaker 2: Well, is it true that he wants to get out more?

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Speaker 8: You know, listen, you know there's always this tension with

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Speaker 8: white houses, right the principal typically says they want to

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Speaker 8: get out more, but they're being you know, sort of

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Speaker 8: held back by other folks. Hard to believe though, right,

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Speaker 8: you're the president, You're the leader of the free world. Yeah, exactly,

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Speaker 8: so listen, I think putting him out there more would

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Speaker 8: actually lesson the sort of attention and scrutiny that he

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Speaker 8: gets because he doesn't do the kind of frequent press

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Speaker 8: conferences that we've seen from former presidents. He passed up

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Speaker 8: on the super Bowl this last Sunday. They should have

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Speaker 8: probably put him out there. That's usually sort of a

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Speaker 8: soft interview in some ways, and puts the president, I

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Speaker 8: think in a light that he needs to be seen.

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Speaker 8: And the thing about this president is he clearly has

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Speaker 8: some memory lapses here and there. You saw him confuse

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Speaker 8: the president of Mexico in the Mexican and the president

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Speaker 8: of Egypt. I think he was thinking border, border, border,

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Speaker 8: and so what. He also knows his stuff, right, I mean,

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Speaker 8: he can go into detail about very complex foreign form.

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Speaker 2: Pol's particular gaff was actually the end of a fairly

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Speaker 2: eloquent answer on a totally unrelated topic. But nobody's going

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Speaker 2: to remember that. Nobody seems to remember Donald Trump's gaffes either,

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Speaker 2: or maybe just nobody cares when you're confusing Nikki Haley

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Speaker 2: with Nancy Pelosi or pointing to the wrong This happens

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Speaker 2: a lot for him as well well. Is part of

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Speaker 2: embracing this also reminding people of Donald Trump's age.

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Speaker 8: I think it's a small part of it, right, because

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Speaker 8: the reality is that if you look at polling, voters

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Speaker 8: aren't as concerned about Donald Trump's age and mental capacity

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Speaker 8: as they are about Biden's. There is concern there, It's

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Speaker 8: like forty eight percent for Trump and something like seventy

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Speaker 8: six percent of voters are concerned about that for Biden.

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Speaker 8: But there is a different sort of presentation. I think

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Speaker 8: if you look at Donald Trump compared to Joe Biden.

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Speaker 8: Joe Biden just frankly looks a little older, and he's

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Speaker 8: only three years older, but he looks a little bit frailer,

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Speaker 8: and it's partly because he's thinner than Donald Trump. Donald Trump,

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Speaker 8: I'm sure, eats a lot of McDonald's cheeseburgers, which are yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 8: which are delicious. Yeah, I'm a big fan of this

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Speaker 8: cheeseburgers as well. And so it just hits different, as

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Speaker 8: the kids like to say, in terms of the age factor.

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Speaker 8: But yes, I think they should certainly do that.

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Speaker 7: You know.

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Speaker 8: Part of the issue I think with Donald Trump is

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Speaker 8: there are so many other things that voters see when

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Speaker 8: they look at Donald Trump. Right, he has problems with

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Speaker 8: the truth, he has problems any number of things with

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Speaker 8: January sixth, and sounding like a want to be dictator

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Speaker 8: at times. So those are the concerns of Americans. Those

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Speaker 8: are the concerns I think that the Biden administration is

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Speaker 8: highlighting with age kind of low on the list in

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Speaker 8: terms of what voters are concerned about.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just look, it reminds us that we don't

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Speaker 2: all age the same way. I look, Donald Trump has

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Speaker 2: four years on Joe Biden. Maybe you should say that

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Speaker 2: the other way around, and four years ago Joe Biden

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Speaker 2: was looking and sounding a lot different than he does now.

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Speaker 2: Then you start wondering where they will both be four

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Speaker 2: years from now. It's impossible to quantify. But this is

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Speaker 2: why we have a problem. We talk about no labels,

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Speaker 2: we talk about maybe a late swap here in the race.

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Speaker 2: You're not allowing time for that, are you.

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Speaker 3: These are the two.

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Speaker 8: Guys, Yeah, these are the two folks.

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Speaker 3: Listen, you can turn me around on that way.

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Speaker 7: Yeah. I mean there's all.

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Speaker 8: Sort of sort of fantas see scenarios, right Gavin Newsome

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Speaker 8: comes in to save.

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Speaker 3: The day, right about that? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

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Speaker 8: You know Kamala Harris, I think she just gave a

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Speaker 8: recent interview saying that she's ready to serve you know,

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Speaker 8: Nikki Haley staying in the race just in case something

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Speaker 8: that happened, you know, happens with Donald Trump. But very

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Speaker 8: likely these are going to be the people that Americans

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Speaker 8: have to choose between in November, and one is seventy seven,

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Speaker 8: the other is eighty one. I think he actually might

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Speaker 8: be eighty two. Maybe by the time he's actually on

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Speaker 8: the ballot. So it's it's something that Americans haven't faced before.

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Speaker 8: It's not that Americans haven't had older presidents and older

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Speaker 8: presidents possibly with some sort of impairment.

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Speaker 5: Right.

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Speaker 8: You think about, for instance, with ORW. Wilson, and then

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Speaker 8: you think about Ronald Reagan exactly more recently. But those

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Speaker 8: people weren't asking for four more years as they were

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Speaker 8: dealing with those healthy important.

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Speaker 2: We didn't have the twenty four to seven media psychologes exactly.

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Speaker 2: Not to mention Friday night combative news conferences. Me and

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Speaker 2: Alika Henderson, what a pleasure. We're going to do this

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Speaker 2: more often. I hope you look for her columns at

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Opinion and at Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Joe Matthew

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Speaker 2: in Washington. We're just getting started here on the fastest

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Speaker 2: show in politics. Thanks for being with us on the radio,

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Speaker 2: on the satellite, and YouTube. This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Amocarplay and then

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Speaker 1: roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand

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Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 9: We did get a statement from President Biden after today's

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Speaker 9: data didn't talk necessarily about CPI Specifically, the first line

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Speaker 9: of the President's statement, today's report shows wage growth has

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Speaker 9: been the strongest of any economic recovery in fifty years,

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Speaker 9: though he did go on to point out inflation declined

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Speaker 9: by two thirds from its peak, and he knows there's

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Speaker 9: still work to do to lower cost Certainly, the data

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Speaker 9: just that work still needs.

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Speaker 3: To be done.

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Speaker 2: You didn't talk about shelter costs and the statement did he?

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Speaker 9: No, he did not.

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Speaker 2: There are some problems here, yea, which is why the

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Speaker 2: market is responding the way it did. This is all

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Speaker 2: about the trajectory, right, and expectations.

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Speaker 3: White House has a.

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Speaker 2: Pretty good economic story to tell, but the market's not buying.

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Speaker 9: This, absolutely not. As the market is now thinking, okay,

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Speaker 9: maybe they weren't going to cut in March, we'd already

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Speaker 9: priced that out. Then the question was May. Now it

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Speaker 9: looks like the odds are on July, we're going to

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Speaker 9: be in the second half of.

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Speaker 2: The year and the second half potentially of a re

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Speaker 2: election campaign. That's where we start our conversation with Anna Wong,

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Speaker 2: who's with us here at the table today. From Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Economics and great to see you. We've talked so much

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Speaker 2: about a potential soft landing and I wonder how this

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Speaker 2: plays into it.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, So I.

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Speaker 5: Think today what's interesting is that we think that it's

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Speaker 5: the seasonal seasonal variation that wrote this upset price in CPI,

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Speaker 5: and also that you could see that some of the

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Speaker 5: jumps is due to volatile categories like air FA errors

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Speaker 5: and hotels, and usually they are the next month that

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Speaker 5: could just go right down for the FED. What matters

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Speaker 5: most is the core PCE deflator, and we saw from

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Speaker 5: the CPI revisions last week that in fact the momentum

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Speaker 5: of shelter prices housing rents was actually for a stronger

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Speaker 5: disinflation momentum going into new year. A large part of

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Speaker 5: that component is actually predictable based on real time private

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Speaker 5: measures of rents, and so I think that today's CPI

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Speaker 5: report doesn't really change the overall narrative that disinflation is

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Speaker 5: making progress. And what the market is not pricing in today, however,

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Speaker 5: is the report of small business surveys, which actually shows

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Speaker 5: that small businesses are not planning to hire as many people,

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Speaker 5: which actually would cause the FED to cut earlier than people.

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Speaker 9: Thought, well, they're certainly thinking it won't be as early

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Speaker 9: now today in light of the data, But we know

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Speaker 9: that those expectations you are volatile as we consider whether

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Speaker 9: it could be made maybe July. But City Group was

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Speaker 9: actually out with a note yesterday, and I'm sure you

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Speaker 9: noticed this, essentially saying that traders need to be pricing

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Speaker 9: in the risk of the Fed hiking again, that they

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Speaker 9: shouldn't necessarily be writing that off, and theoretically inflation data

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Speaker 9: like what we are seeing today suggests that the Fed

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Speaker 9: may think there could be more tightening out there that

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Speaker 9: they need to do. Do you think that that risk

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Speaker 9: is zero that there will be another hike this cycle?

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Speaker 5: That's actually a very good question. Actually, AI thinks that

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Speaker 5: City Group may be right. So we built this fedspeak

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Speaker 5: index using machine learning, which takes into real time Bloomberg

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Speaker 5: reporting on fed speak, and it actually has been flagging

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Speaker 5: that the risk for a hike is actually non zero

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Speaker 5: that in fact, based on the rhetoric of FED officials alone,

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Speaker 5: it suggests that the could yeah, possibly be in play.

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Speaker 2: Did you know we're using AI like this in our reporting, Kaylee,

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Speaker 2: It's amazing.

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Speaker 3: Do you have like a back room with this aim

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Speaker 3: where this happening.

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Speaker 5: Well, the AI is actually based on my reading of fetspeak,

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Speaker 5: So in this case, the AI is more outfront than me. Well,

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Speaker 5: I still think that the right cut is still the baseline,

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Speaker 5: but it has been flagging to us that the hike

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Speaker 5: is on the table.

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Speaker 3: So we have a secret room somewhere.

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Speaker 9: Well, but the human still has to feed information to

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Speaker 9: the robot, and the robot then the humans.

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Speaker 5: However, thereafter the robot has a mine of its own.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible, it's pretty cool. Well, we are so cool

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Speaker 3: at Bloomberg. This is why you know you're here.

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Speaker 2: You mentioned airfares and hotels. Are we still revenge traveling

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Speaker 2: out of COVID? This has never really stopped it.

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Speaker 5: I think the revenge traveling is happening with baby boomers.

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Speaker 5: You know, look at cruise bookings, look at all these

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Speaker 5: that and and the baby boomers spending is based on

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Speaker 5: stock market performance. I think as long as S and

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Speaker 5: P five hundred is rallying, we will continue to see

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Speaker 5: more excess early retirement and more spending by baby boomers.

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Speaker 8: Interesting, I like cruises.

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Speaker 9: I'm not a baby boomer.

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Speaker 8: I'm a MILLENNI and I'm.

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Speaker 9: A cruiser but I know cruisers are polarizing.

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00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:07,680
Speaker 5: So you won't have time to go this month because

440
00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:08,120
Speaker 5: you are here.

441
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:11,280
Speaker 9: Well, that's very true. Twenty twenty four not a great

442
00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:13,639
Speaker 9: year for travel for Joe and I because there is

443
00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:16,360
Speaker 9: this whole election cycle going on and the course inflation,

444
00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:17,840
Speaker 9: yes and does play.

445
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:19,239
Speaker 3: And thank you, it's great to see you.

446
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:23,680
Speaker 2: Thanks for your recording, and along chief economist Bloomberg Economics

447
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:25,800
Speaker 2: with an awfully important report today. Kaylie.

448
00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:29,159
Speaker 9: Absolutely. Now, of course, as we consider inflation and what

449
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:31,480
Speaker 9: the economy is doing and how that factors into the

450
00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:33,360
Speaker 9: minds of voters, we should get a read.

451
00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:35,520
Speaker 3: On how people are actually voting today.

452
00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:37,520
Speaker 9: Yeah, because people are voting in the state of New

453
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:41,720
Speaker 9: York very district if they are breathing the snow. And

454
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:44,480
Speaker 9: Kyle Condick, the managing editor of Sabado's Crystal Ball the

455
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 9: University of Virginia Center for Politics, I've been has been

456
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:50,679
Speaker 9: following New York three in addition to polls nationally. If

457
00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:53,200
Speaker 9: we could just start there, though, Kyle obviously at Swazi

458
00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 9: versus Pillop, the Democrat and the Republican. This snowstorm, though,

459
00:22:57,720 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 9: could potentially make what was going to be a low

460
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:04,320
Speaker 9: turn out vote even lower turnout. Who would that benefit most.

461
00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 10: Probably benefit Swazi. So just to put it in perspective,

462
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 10: about eighty thousand votes were cast basically early in advance

463
00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 10: in twenty twenty two. It's the same thing in this

464
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:18,639
Speaker 10: special election, about eighty thousand early votes for you know,

465
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:21,280
Speaker 10: cast before election day, but that was only about thirty

466
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:23,240
Speaker 10: percent of the total votes that ended up being cast,

467
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 10: meaning about seventy percent were cast on election day in

468
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 10: twenty twenty two. This time, you know, you'd always expect

469
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 10: a special election to be lower than a you know,

470
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:35,480
Speaker 10: than a mid term turnout, and so, you know, I

471
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:37,280
Speaker 10: think the percentage of the votes that are cast on

472
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:39,240
Speaker 10: election day are going to be a lot smaller than

473
00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:41,639
Speaker 10: they were in twenty twenty two. And of course that

474
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:44,879
Speaker 10: was an election that George Santos won by about eight points.

475
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:48,520
Speaker 10: The early electorate in terms of registration was slightly more

476
00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:52,399
Speaker 10: democratic in twenty in this special election than it was

477
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 10: in twenty twenty two. Of course, election day was much

478
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:57,880
Speaker 10: more Republican leaning, you know, in terms of in terms

479
00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:00,639
Speaker 10: of performance in twenty twenty two. You know, line here is,

480
00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 10: I do think that the snowstorm could have some impact here,

481
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:05,399
Speaker 10: and again if it does. It's probably more helpful to

482
00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:06,719
Speaker 10: Swazi than a pilloup.

483
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:11,240
Speaker 2: This is a district won by Joe Biden by eight

484
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:14,040
Speaker 2: points in twenty twenty, yet this race appears to be

485
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:17,240
Speaker 2: too close to call. Sienna had Swazi up by four,

486
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:19,439
Speaker 2: I think you had the margin of error, and you

487
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:22,679
Speaker 2: know a snowstorm could in fact make the difference here. Kyle,

488
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:26,520
Speaker 2: what does that say about democratic politics in New York

489
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:28,440
Speaker 2: since twenty twenty.

490
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:32,440
Speaker 10: So Swazi himself said it in the lead up to

491
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 10: the election that you know Democrats have basically lost all

492
00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:37,720
Speaker 10: the elections of consequence and in.

493
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:39,560
Speaker 3: That you know, in that area, and you know Long.

494
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:43,679
Speaker 10: Island Nasau County since the twenty twenty election. You know,

495
00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:46,600
Speaker 10: bad results in twenty twenty one, bad results in twenty

496
00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:50,040
Speaker 10: twenty two, when you know Republican House gains in New

497
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:53,720
Speaker 10: York State, both on Long Island than state were arguably

498
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:56,960
Speaker 10: the difference between Republicans winning or not winning a US

499
00:24:57,000 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 10: House that year, and then Republicans had some more victories

500
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 10: in the area in twenty twenty three. So, you know,

501
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 10: a lot of people on both sides of the aisle,

502
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 10: when you ask them about this race, they think that

503
00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:10,159
Speaker 10: the Biden plus eight maybe overstates how democratic the district is,

504
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 10: particularly at this particular point in time. You know, I

505
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,920
Speaker 10: sometimes think if you picked up this district at Biden

506
00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 10: plus eight with the same demographics and you put it

507
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:22,400
Speaker 10: in like suburban Philadelphia or suburban Detroit or something, Democrats

508
00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:25,440
Speaker 10: might actually have felt better about this race. And you know, again,

509
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:28,280
Speaker 10: I think I'd probably still rather be Swazi than pill Up,

510
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 10: particularly based on the fact that it looks like election

511
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:33,400
Speaker 10: day turn out may not be that great, although polls

512
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:35,600
Speaker 10: don't close until nine o'clock, so there's plenty of time

513
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 10: for that to change. But obviously both sides were spending

514
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:41,119
Speaker 10: like this was the closest competitive race, and that's what

515
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 10: the public polls said, and I think that's what the

516
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 10: private polling was indicating as well.

517
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:49,240
Speaker 9: Yeah, pretty remarkable the amount of spend we have seen.

518
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:52,119
Speaker 9: Considering ultimately, this may be a seat that's only held

519
00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:54,960
Speaker 9: for eleven months because it's February of twenty twenty three,

520
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 9: and there's going to be an election in November of

521
00:25:57,480 --> 00:25:59,760
Speaker 9: twenty twenty four, and there could be some redistricting to

522
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:03,679
Speaker 9: her here as well. Obviously that's because the seat was

523
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:07,160
Speaker 9: vacated in a historic Ouster of George Santos, as you mentioned,

524
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:10,240
Speaker 9: was it a mistake for Swazi not to go after

525
00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:13,880
Speaker 9: the Santos legacy specifically harder than he did.

526
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,440
Speaker 10: You know, you have heard some of that from from

527
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:21,679
Speaker 10: Swazi and from Democrats, because Philip has not been an

528
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:26,240
Speaker 10: unusual you know, particularly an energetic camp campaigner. You know,

529
00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 10: media has been sort of critical of her for not

530
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:30,240
Speaker 10: talking to the press, which you know, I don't know

531
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 10: if that necessarily matters all that much, but but you know,

532
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:36,360
Speaker 10: she hasn't been maybe as visible I think as uh

533
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 10: as maybe some Republicans would would would have liked.

534
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:40,160
Speaker 1: Uh.

535
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:43,240
Speaker 10: And you know, there is some indication just historically speaking

536
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 10: that you know, if if ah, if a member has

537
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:49,960
Speaker 10: to resign, uh that there's a special election, the party

538
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 10: of the member resigned sometimes pays a price in the

539
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:55,880
Speaker 10: special election. And so maybe that also helps helps help

540
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:58,920
Speaker 10: Swazi in in this race, uh, you know, as effectively

541
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:00,680
Speaker 10: the challenger in the seat, even though he used to

542
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:04,520
Speaker 10: be the incumbent prior to twenty twenty two. So that

543
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:06,199
Speaker 10: that's a factor to watch. But I would say that

544
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 10: that did come up to some degree in this campaign.

545
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:13,200
Speaker 2: Has George Santos been forgotten at one point, this was

546
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 2: going to be a Democratic seat for the rest of

547
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:18,120
Speaker 2: our lives because of what he pulled off. Now we're

548
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:20,720
Speaker 2: hardly talking about him, at least in the conversation surrounding

549
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:21,879
Speaker 2: this special election.

550
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 10: People have pretty short memories, I think, although Santos himself

551
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 10: has remained he's kind of this celebrity now. He you know,

552
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:36,080
Speaker 10: during the when the House Republicans failed to get through

553
00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:41,119
Speaker 10: the impeachment of Secretary of Homeland Security majorcas recently he

554
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:43,960
Speaker 10: tweeted out missed me yet, which was kind of funny.

555
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 10: It was like those George W. Bush billboards after Obama

556
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:52,800
Speaker 10: took office. It was kind of a funny inside joke.

557
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:56,879
Speaker 10: But Santos is, you know, he's still basically a public figure.

558
00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:58,959
Speaker 10: Although you know he's going to have his own reckoning

559
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:01,160
Speaker 10: with the law. It seems like sooner rather than later.

560
00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:03,479
Speaker 10: But you know, people move on pretty quickly.

561
00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:07,359
Speaker 9: I want to go back to the point you were

562
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 9: making a few minutes ago, Kyle, about how if this

563
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 9: district were a suburb instead of another city like Philadelphia,

564
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,439
Speaker 9: instead of being on island, it may be different. To

565
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:18,840
Speaker 9: what extent should we be viewing today's vote as a

566
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 9: litmus test for New York State broadly in twenty twenty four,

567
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 9: and then just broadly national electoral politics. What is it

568
00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 9: realistically going to tell us?

569
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 10: I would caution against drawing too many conclusions from any

570
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 10: special election. You know, generally speaking, the special elections in

571
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 10: mostly state legislative races. But we've had since the twenty

572
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 10: since the Dobbs decision in Midsummer of twenty twenty two,

573
00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 10: you know, general speaking, has gone pretty well for Democrats,

574
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 10: and if the Democrats do win the day, it would

575
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 10: be within in keeping them with that. But you know,

576
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:58,080
Speaker 10: again New York has been pretty bad for Democrats. It

577
00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:01,280
Speaker 10: may not necessarily be comparable directly to some of the

578
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:05,000
Speaker 10: other swing states. So again, for lots of different reasons,

579
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 10: don't make broad conclusions about this. It is important though,

580
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 10: in the sense that the Democrats only need to win

581
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 10: five more seats than they want in twenty twenty two

582
00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:15,040
Speaker 10: to win the House back, and this could effectively be

583
00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:17,320
Speaker 10: one of them. I think if Swazi wins today, I

584
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:20,960
Speaker 10: think he's probably favored going into November, particularly if you

585
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 10: get some help and redistricting, which as you mentioned, is

586
00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:24,440
Speaker 10: another wild card.

587
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:28,880
Speaker 2: We're talking with Kyle Condick from Sabado's Crystal Ball, where

588
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 2: he's managing editor with an eye on New York three,

589
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 2: the special election that's underway today to fill the seat

590
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:36,200
Speaker 2: once held by George Santos.

591
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 3: Poll's on Long Island. None close till.

592
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 2: Nine o'clock tonight, Kyle, this is going to be a

593
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:40,520
Speaker 2: late call.

594
00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:45,240
Speaker 10: Huh, Yeah, that's right. And again that might also mitigate

595
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 10: some of the problems with people voting because of the

596
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 10: snow today. At least if people do want to break

597
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:53,239
Speaker 10: the elements and the weather gets better, they'll have an

598
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 10: opportunity to do so. And of course there is fairly

599
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 10: robust you know early slash absentee voting in New York State.

600
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 10: That didn't always used to be the case. But so

601
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 10: again you had an early slash you know, absentee vote

602
00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:06,720
Speaker 10: that was very comparable to what was done in the

603
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 10: twenty twenty two midterm. So you know, people did have

604
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:13,880
Speaker 10: an opportunity to vote in advance here, which really is

605
00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:15,800
Speaker 10: the whole point of having those certain options.

606
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:20,360
Speaker 9: So today's bringing this special election a snowstorm with it.

607
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:23,120
Speaker 9: It also brought inflation data, Kyle that we were speaking

608
00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 9: about a moment ago hotter than expected, not necessarily heading

609
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:29,000
Speaker 9: in the right direction if you're an incumbent to what

610
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 9: extent is the economy still weighing top of minds for voters,

611
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 9: not just in New York three, but broadly, or has

612
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:36,959
Speaker 9: it now been supplanted by immigration in the border.

613
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 10: It seems like the economy and immigration are two, you know,

614
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 10: big factors and people's perceptions of things. You know, Biden

615
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 10: is not perceived as doing particularly well on either of

616
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:50,440
Speaker 10: those important issues, and so you know, any White House

617
00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:52,760
Speaker 10: would want the economic news to be as good as possible.

618
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 10: You know, I think you all were just talking before

619
00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:58,080
Speaker 10: about how you could certainly could point to some positive

620
00:30:58,080 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 10: indicators on the economy. But you know, inflation is still

621
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 10: a problem. And again, no matter what the rate is,

622
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:06,760
Speaker 10: I do think people sort of feel higher prices and

623
00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:09,160
Speaker 10: just paying more for stuff than did a few years ago.

624
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 10: And that would be the case even if you know,

625
00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 10: if inflation itself, the efficient inflation rate is getting smaller.

626
00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 10: You know, the higher prices.

627
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 9: Still means prices are going up.

628
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:24,080
Speaker 2: Ever, not be talking about this with Kyle Connor. Great

629
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 2: to see Kyle, Thank you. We'll keep you posted, of

630
00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 2: course on the results from New York three. I'm guessing

631
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 2: that's going to be tomorrow, Kaylee. Right here on Balance

632
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:30,960
Speaker 2: of Power.

633
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:37,520
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast can

634
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

635
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636
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 1: also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New

637
00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:51,400
Speaker 1: York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

638
00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:55,680
Speaker 2: Welcome, indeed to the Tuesday. Is it really only Tuesday?

639
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:57,760
Speaker 2: A lot's happened already this week? The Tuesday edition of

640
00:31:57,800 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 2: Balance of Power fat Tuesday's Hot of an expected CPI.

641
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 2: And look at this something that got done in the

642
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 2: United States Senate. I'm as amazed as you are to

643
00:32:07,080 --> 00:32:09,040
Speaker 2: wake up to the head. They worked all night, they

644
00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 2: went through. It's almost six o'clock in the morning when

645
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:13,920
Speaker 2: it passed seventy to twenty nine. This is the National

646
00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 2: Security Supplemental Emergency Supplemental request funding for Ukraine, for Israel

647
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 2: and Taiwan. The question remains what happens when it goes

648
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:25,160
Speaker 2: to the House, because the Speaker preemptively said that this

649
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:27,960
Speaker 2: would never pass the House, and it doesn't appear that

650
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,040
Speaker 2: he even wants to bring it to the floor, so

651
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:32,480
Speaker 2: we'll find out about that. It's going to take a minute.

652
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 2: Arriving in town in the middle of all of this

653
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:40,160
Speaker 2: is maroosh Schefjevich, Executive Vice President of the European Commission

654
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 2: for the European Green Deal, Interinstitutional Relations and Foresight. How

655
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 2: about that for a title, mister Vice President. Welcome to Washington.

656
00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 2: How did I do with the pronouncer? Absolutely perfect? A

657
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:52,960
Speaker 2: great linguist, that is all I had. No one's ever

658
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:55,920
Speaker 2: said that before. Thank you, Welcome to the nation's capital.

659
00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 2: It's great to see you here. Your meeting with lawmakers,

660
00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:03,440
Speaker 2: with members of the administration, with energy stakeholders here and

661
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 2: energy cooperation against the backdrop of this war in Ukraine

662
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:10,840
Speaker 2: is your priority here as you from meeting to meeting.

663
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:15,200
Speaker 2: Do you worry about this debate here about funding Ukraine,

664
00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 2: about the US potentially pulling back? What are you hearing

665
00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 2: as you have meetings around.

666
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:20,680
Speaker 7: So of course we are following it very very closely,

667
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 7: and I know that these are difficult decisions to make,

668
00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:28,640
Speaker 7: especially in current political circumstances on both sides of the Atlantic.

669
00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 7: But we delivered. We just approved fifty billion euros for Ukraine.

670
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:38,000
Speaker 7: So altogether our assistance so far is one hundred and

671
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:40,560
Speaker 7: fifty billion euros, which is I would say at this

672
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 7: stage twice as high as the American one, even though

673
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:47,280
Speaker 7: we of course clearly know that without US, especially the

674
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:51,240
Speaker 7: military supplies, the situation in Ukraine would be very, very dramatic.

675
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 7: So we've clearly been kind of pleading, hoping, and I'm

676
00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:59,440
Speaker 7: arguing that how the US component of this assistant is

677
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:03,320
Speaker 7: absolutely crucial. If the Ukrainians need help sometimes it's now

678
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:05,720
Speaker 7: and I and I hope that both of us will

679
00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:09,160
Speaker 7: deliver and will will help Ukraine to defend itself.

680
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 2: Do European leaders believe it's just a matter of time

681
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:16,200
Speaker 2: for the US to complete its debate and and and

682
00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:18,320
Speaker 2: get this done, that it will eventually happen.

683
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:23,919
Speaker 7: I we've been really encouraged but very strong statements coming

684
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:26,399
Speaker 7: from the President Biden and from the White House and

685
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 7: also administration officialists. They have been very clear that they

686
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:33,480
Speaker 7: want this happen, very much encouraged by the votes in

687
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:36,920
Speaker 7: the Senate. But of course I know that this is

688
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:40,239
Speaker 7: not the last step in that in that process. But

689
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:44,320
Speaker 7: I mean, looking at what's happening in in in Ukraine,

690
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:47,840
Speaker 7: I think it's it's It's clearly should be imperative to

691
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:51,280
Speaker 7: to help them, to get them the means to defend

692
00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 7: themselves because they are also, you know, defending our set

693
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 7: of values.

694
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:58,399
Speaker 2: Well, you're you've got Llen g on your agenda as well.

695
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:00,640
Speaker 2: You had an important meeting this morning, I know, executives.

696
00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:02,800
Speaker 2: I saw on Twitter you were meeting with President Biden's

697
00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 2: energy advisor Almos Hochstein, who's spent a lot of time

698
00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:08,880
Speaker 2: with us here at Bloomberg talking about energy policy. What

699
00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:11,680
Speaker 2: did you tell you about the administration's decision to halt

700
00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:16,880
Speaker 2: LNG export approvals in its potential impact on Europe.

701
00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:20,920
Speaker 7: I think that also in my meetings yesterday with AMAS

702
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:26,759
Speaker 7: and other representatives of the administration, I was highlighting the

703
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:31,240
Speaker 7: fact that probably this is new for United States of America,

704
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:36,280
Speaker 7: but US has really become the guarenter of the global

705
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:40,680
Speaker 7: energy security. So any statement coming from the Washington d

706
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:42,920
Speaker 7: C on the METU of LERG on the metal of

707
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:47,960
Speaker 7: energy energy supplies, immediately I was kind of rippling effect

708
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:52,640
Speaker 7: all across all across the global global markets. And therefore

709
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:55,640
Speaker 7: I have to say that I was very pleased yesterday.

710
00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:59,800
Speaker 7: I was really sure that this would not affect Europe

711
00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:03,120
Speaker 7: in and coming a couple of years that by twenty

712
00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:08,760
Speaker 7: thirty actually the export capacity of US LNG sector should double,

713
00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:13,879
Speaker 7: and that US will will play this very important role

714
00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:17,640
Speaker 7: helping us to shift away from from Russian fossil supplies,

715
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:22,040
Speaker 7: because without US LNG supplies, I mean, it would be

716
00:36:22,120 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 7: in a very very tough place. Anyway, We've been in

717
00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:28,680
Speaker 7: the worst energy crisis since seventies over the last two years.

718
00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:32,560
Speaker 7: So for US, it's of course extremely important. And if

719
00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:36,480
Speaker 7: you look a little bit beyond Europe, and therefore my

720
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:42,040
Speaker 7: underscoring of this, of this global responsibility of the United

721
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:44,760
Speaker 7: States is the fact that I was working very closely

722
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:48,840
Speaker 7: with John Kerry in Dubai. Yeah, there is clear pledge

723
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:53,640
Speaker 7: to phase out CALL. And if you look that gas

724
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:56,840
Speaker 7: has only half of carbon intensity of CALL, hut of

725
00:36:56,840 --> 00:36:58,960
Speaker 7: the guys would be needed in India and Southeast Asia

726
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:01,960
Speaker 7: and all the places. So I think that clearly the

727
00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:06,920
Speaker 7: LNG sector of US would have I would say, global

728
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:07,480
Speaker 7: role to play.

729
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:10,040
Speaker 2: Is it safe to say then that the US has

730
00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 2: provided you assurances when it comes to LERG supply while

731
00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:14,719
Speaker 2: these reviews day played.

732
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:19,240
Speaker 7: Yes, I was readure yesterday by all my interlocutors including

733
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:23,400
Speaker 7: in the discussion with mister John Podesta. On top of it,

734
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 7: it was highlighted that there is also reference to eventually

735
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:31,840
Speaker 7: then and eventual situations of the emergency character. And we

736
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 7: had a very very good dialogue with the administrations throughout

737
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:41,840
Speaker 7: the years since the war in Ukraine started. Then, I

738
00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 7: think that the fact that US LNG is now number

739
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:47,719
Speaker 7: one exported to Europe just proved that we that we

740
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:50,879
Speaker 7: found the solution and fifty six billion cubing meters came.

741
00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:54,839
Speaker 7: It was even six billion about that political agreement which

742
00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:58,560
Speaker 7: President Biden had with my boss President from the line,

743
00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 7: and of course we hope for more in the future.

744
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:07,480
Speaker 7: So I was actually presenting to the LNG exporters how

745
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:11,880
Speaker 7: our common purchase of gas platform functions, how we're aggregating demand,

746
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:15,239
Speaker 7: how we are bringing new potential customers to them, and

747
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:17,640
Speaker 7: I was also highlighting that we are going to offer

748
00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:20,920
Speaker 7: a new product where the contracts up to five years

749
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:24,040
Speaker 7: would be now possible, and we are starting the market

750
00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:26,839
Speaker 7: survey even on a longer term up to twenty years,

751
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:30,480
Speaker 7: depending if that would be interesting for buyers in Europe

752
00:38:30,760 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 7: and bidders in the States. And therefore we just wanted

753
00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:35,960
Speaker 7: to start the conversations with them.

754
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 2: So five years of security is what you're talking about here.

755
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:43,759
Speaker 2: That sounds like you get almost to twenty thirty when

756
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:45,760
Speaker 2: this will all be done in the US.

757
00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:49,200
Speaker 7: I think that when I was referring to the five years,

758
00:38:49,239 --> 00:38:52,799
Speaker 7: I was referring to the contracts. Now, sure biders could

759
00:38:52,840 --> 00:38:57,320
Speaker 7: sign on the platform which we created for common purchase

760
00:38:57,360 --> 00:39:00,319
Speaker 7: of GUS, but I know that a lot of like

761
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:05,320
Speaker 7: trade is going also outside of the platform. And most

762
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:10,760
Speaker 7: of the bits which came from you as a legibin

763
00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:14,359
Speaker 7: well placed in Europe, and they supplied fifty six billion

764
00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:18,239
Speaker 7: quebek meters, which was very important because just to give

765
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:20,960
Speaker 7: you one figure, before the war, we've been important up

766
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:23,120
Speaker 7: to one hundred and fifty blink ubig meters from Russia.

767
00:39:23,239 --> 00:39:26,280
Speaker 7: Now we're down to forty and we had to found

768
00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:28,799
Speaker 7: new one hundred blank cube meters within the space of

769
00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:31,680
Speaker 7: one year. So I mean you would appreciate how challenging

770
00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:34,320
Speaker 7: that was. And we even had to curtail the consumption,

771
00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:39,239
Speaker 7: lower some energy activity and energy intensive industries. And of

772
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 7: course we want again to perform at our optimal potential

773
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:44,600
Speaker 7: if it comes to European economy.

774
00:39:44,640 --> 00:39:47,520
Speaker 2: I have to ask you about stories that were reporting

775
00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:51,279
Speaker 2: about Venture Global. What can you tell us about this

776
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:54,279
Speaker 2: ongoing dispute with Ventury Global and the contracts at BP

777
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:57,120
Speaker 2: and Shell and some European companies say should start now?

778
00:39:57,760 --> 00:40:00,319
Speaker 7: Of course, I mean it's very difficult of for us

779
00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:05,239
Speaker 7: to comment because I understand that it's under the litigation,

780
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:09,920
Speaker 7: so most probably there will be cord hearing and court

781
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 7: eventually decision in that regard. So we haven't seen the contracts.

782
00:40:15,320 --> 00:40:18,480
Speaker 7: And what is very important for us that also these

783
00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:22,600
Speaker 7: situations that was as soon as possible because we want

784
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:25,120
Speaker 7: also the long term contracts which have been signed to

785
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:31,680
Speaker 7: be to be respected and appropriate level of gas supplied

786
00:40:32,239 --> 00:40:34,719
Speaker 7: to EU because I am absolutely convinced that we are

787
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:37,719
Speaker 7: closest allies of the United States of America and we

788
00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:41,160
Speaker 7: go through a rap patch with the two words very

789
00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:44,360
Speaker 7: close to our borders with all the repercussions.

790
00:40:44,360 --> 00:40:51,360
Speaker 2: You might imagine you're aiming for carbon neutrality in twenty fifty.

791
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 2: The UN asks for twenty forty.

792
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:55,360
Speaker 3: What's the difference.

793
00:40:56,040 --> 00:41:01,759
Speaker 7: I think we of course with the huge difference is

794
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:05,960
Speaker 7: that to be to become carbon neutral. I mean Europe

795
00:41:06,280 --> 00:41:10,320
Speaker 7: believes that we will be the first carbon neutral continent.

796
00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:13,240
Speaker 7: I think the United States of America have the similar

797
00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:17,840
Speaker 7: similar ambition and and it's no mean mean feet It's

798
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:22,400
Speaker 7: extremely challenging because I think we progress a lot with

799
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:27,440
Speaker 7: the energy sector, but to kind of phase out for

800
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:31,400
Speaker 7: self fuels, for heating and cooling of the buildings, from

801
00:41:31,880 --> 00:41:35,240
Speaker 7: from transport, from aviation, it's it's it's it's it's a challenge.

802
00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 7: So therefore we are I would carefully planning how this

803
00:41:38,600 --> 00:41:40,799
Speaker 7: can be done. A lot would depend on the on

804
00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:44,000
Speaker 7: the technological development. And therefore I was so thrilled when

805
00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:46,640
Speaker 7: I visited M I T this week and I was

806
00:41:46,680 --> 00:41:49,400
Speaker 7: on Saturday in the Fusion lab and I and I

807
00:41:49,440 --> 00:41:51,720
Speaker 7: think that I saw the future because I mean, these guys,

808
00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:54,479
Speaker 7: what they're doing there is it's pretty impressive. I'm glad

809
00:41:54,520 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 7: that this is EU US corporation that are also European

810
00:41:58,120 --> 00:42:01,319
Speaker 7: big companies investing in the adventure and that could bring

811
00:42:01,400 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 7: us the clean energy you need.

812
00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:06,680
Speaker 2: Fascinating conversation. He's the Executive Vice President of the European

813
00:42:06,719 --> 00:42:10,880
Speaker 2: Commission for European Green Deal, inter Institutional Relations and Foresight.

814
00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:12,200
Speaker 2: I don't know how you fit it all on a

815
00:42:12,239 --> 00:42:15,040
Speaker 2: business card, but we thank you. Minosh Chefshevich. Great to

816
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 2: see you in Washington. Get home safe, good.

817
00:42:17,080 --> 00:42:17,840
Speaker 3: Luck with your meetings.

818
00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:23,399
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

819
00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:26,400
Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

820
00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:29,040
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

821
00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:32,360
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

822
00:42:32,640 --> 00:42:34,080
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.