WEBVTT - 2025 Top 100 MLB Dynasty Rankings (Ep. 918) 0:00:05.440 --> 0:00:09.200 Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros MLB. It is me, 0:00:09.320 --> 0:00:11.680 Joey p joe Pisapia with me is the Welsh in 0:00:11.760 --> 0:00:15.600 our first full show of twenty twenty five. So of 0:00:15.640 --> 0:00:18.040 course we're gonna look ahead to the future. We're gonna 0:00:18.079 --> 0:00:21.759 talk dynasty rankings today. We're gonna go through Welsh's top 0:00:21.880 --> 0:00:24.800 fifty here, maybe some guys on the fringe, and also 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:26.800 make sure you keep a lookout because Welsh is working 0:00:26.840 --> 0:00:29.400 on the top one fifty article that's gonna be on 0:00:29.480 --> 0:00:33.279 Fantasypros dot com in just a few short hours from now. 0:00:33.320 --> 0:00:35.160 It might even be up by the time this show 0:00:35.200 --> 0:00:37.600 comes up, so just run over there and check it out. 0:00:37.840 --> 0:00:39.880 Welsh Dynasty is your bread and butter. 0:00:39.920 --> 0:00:40.960 You're the prospect gurer. 0:00:40.960 --> 0:00:42.879 You're the guy at the AFL who is you know, 0:00:42.960 --> 0:00:45.599 kissing babies and shaking hands and doing everything you need 0:00:45.640 --> 0:00:47.720 to do to get on the field to make sure 0:00:47.720 --> 0:00:49.400 that you are getting your finger on the pulse of 0:00:49.400 --> 0:00:50.920 what's going on here with some of these young players, 0:00:50.920 --> 0:00:52.879 but it's also some established veterans too. 0:00:52.920 --> 0:00:53.959 It's a mix here in this. 0:00:53.960 --> 0:00:56.480 Top fifty that we're gonna break down today with the tears, 0:00:56.520 --> 0:01:00.280 so generally speaking, you know when you are approaching dynastys, 0:01:00.360 --> 0:01:02.800 especially for the first time, and these you know, clean 0:01:02.880 --> 0:01:04.880 leagues that are starting in twenty twenty five, or if 0:01:04.880 --> 0:01:09.000 people are just trying to evaluate some of their players 0:01:09.000 --> 0:01:12.360 and what their values really should be heading into another 0:01:12.440 --> 0:01:15.120 year of dynasty and a league that already exists, what's 0:01:15.160 --> 0:01:16.959 your best practice when you put it out there for 0:01:16.959 --> 0:01:19.800 the people in terms of trying to create a balance 0:01:19.840 --> 0:01:21.200 of prospects and win. 0:01:21.280 --> 0:01:23.760 Now, Yeah, no, this is like the big thing because 0:01:23.760 --> 0:01:26.839 I think there's a couple encompass things in here in Dynasty. 0:01:27.200 --> 0:01:31.160 A I would always tell everybody, no Dynasty rank or 0:01:31.240 --> 0:01:33.440 list is perfect, and I know that like that can 0:01:33.480 --> 0:01:35.959 be like contrite like Okoyd, well rank now, but like 0:01:36.000 --> 0:01:37.800 you get a redraft list, you kind of know what 0:01:37.840 --> 0:01:41.880 it is. But in Dynasty, things can be whatever that 0:01:42.040 --> 0:01:43.800 you want them to be. The Willy Wonka and the 0:01:43.840 --> 0:01:47.559 Chocolate Factory of fantasy baseball because it's like you can 0:01:47.600 --> 0:01:51.160 construct this super young team to play for the future, 0:01:51.200 --> 0:01:52.800 but you got to eat a couple of years. You 0:01:52.840 --> 0:01:56.000 can take advantage of values where people are only wanting 0:01:56.000 --> 0:01:58.040 young players, and you could take veterans to try to 0:01:58.080 --> 0:02:02.640 win now. So my rank isn't necessarily going to fully 0:02:02.720 --> 0:02:06.520 encompass what you might want to do with your specific one, 0:02:06.560 --> 0:02:09.119 So you have to understand that first and foremost. That's 0:02:09.120 --> 0:02:11.280 the big thing. But if you know you're in a 0:02:11.440 --> 0:02:14.480 restart a refresh of dynasty, there are different ways to 0:02:14.520 --> 0:02:17.040 approach it. So my rank that we're going to talk 0:02:17.040 --> 0:02:20.040 about is a kind of overarching theme which you would 0:02:20.080 --> 0:02:22.680 have to make your own adjustments. I do you know 0:02:22.760 --> 0:02:25.000 redraft and dynasty and prospect stuff, And I've also done 0:02:25.040 --> 0:02:27.519 it on my Patreon as well at in this League 0:02:27.520 --> 0:02:29.840 dot com. And one thing I've always said is like, 0:02:29.919 --> 0:02:32.280 if you are a win now team you want to 0:02:32.280 --> 0:02:34.920 start transitioning from dynasty into redraft, you could do that 0:02:34.960 --> 0:02:37.840 here with Fantasy pros and their ranks top one hundred. 0:02:37.840 --> 0:02:40.040 Maybe really make that as a hyper focus for what 0:02:40.080 --> 0:02:42.520 you're doing in a dynasty draft, then start moving to 0:02:42.560 --> 0:02:45.480 your redraft. On the inverse, if you are a I'm 0:02:45.520 --> 0:02:47.040 going to play for the future, I want to get 0:02:47.040 --> 0:02:49.280 a bunch of the young guys, Well take that top 0:02:49.320 --> 0:02:51.639 one hundred and then start reverting to a prospect list. 0:02:51.680 --> 0:02:53.240 So that's how you would do that. So you have 0:02:53.280 --> 0:02:55.440 to come to terms with are you a win now, 0:02:55.680 --> 0:02:58.200 are you a balance, or are you a play for 0:02:58.240 --> 0:03:00.440 the future. So we'll talk about that in all of 0:03:00.520 --> 0:03:03.840 these ranks, because there would be certain levels where we 0:03:03.840 --> 0:03:05.960 would adjust to like, oh, if I'm a win now team, 0:03:06.240 --> 0:03:08.080 let's start to bump this up. I don't think that 0:03:08.200 --> 0:03:11.000 exists really in the top It doesn't exist in the 0:03:11.000 --> 0:03:13.639 top ten, get into the top twenty, kind of doesn't 0:03:13.720 --> 0:03:16.000 top thirty a little bit, and then it's like, once 0:03:16.000 --> 0:03:17.680 you get outside the top fifty, then it really is 0:03:17.720 --> 0:03:19.560 important to know where you are. So this is an 0:03:19.560 --> 0:03:24.200 all encompass list that is talking more about balance, but 0:03:24.240 --> 0:03:26.359 you do have to understand if you're a refresh and 0:03:26.400 --> 0:03:28.560 you're a new dynasty, what type of team are you 0:03:28.639 --> 0:03:31.640 trying to construct? If you're already in a dynasty, this 0:03:31.720 --> 0:03:34.000 is going to be probably more about player evaluation, or 0:03:34.000 --> 0:03:37.680 at least where I value these players in a dynasty overall. 0:03:38.160 --> 0:03:39.880 Yeah, and one other note I would throw out there 0:03:39.920 --> 0:03:42.800 for those starting up dynasty leagues too is take advantage 0:03:42.520 --> 0:03:45.960 when when people maybe go to prospect heavy with you 0:03:46.000 --> 0:03:48.240 know a lot of younger guys who aren't really proven 0:03:48.240 --> 0:03:50.640 even at the minor league level, yet pivot and take 0:03:50.680 --> 0:03:53.240 the value of some of those guys that are established veterans. 0:03:53.240 --> 0:03:55.760 Even if they're thirty years old, there's still a lot 0:03:55.760 --> 0:03:57.200 of baseball left in some of these guys. 0:03:57.680 --> 0:03:59.480 It's a great point. Two things I'm gonna add to that. 0:03:59.800 --> 0:04:03.160 My ranks, especially my prospect ranks. We're not necessarily doing 0:04:03.160 --> 0:04:09.640 prospect ranks here. My prospect ranks doing compass an overarching worldview. 0:04:10.040 --> 0:04:13.600 But my dynasty ranks are kind of a three year window. 0:04:13.720 --> 0:04:15.840 I look at these as a three year window in value. 0:04:15.880 --> 0:04:18.520 So you might have some dynasty rankers that go and 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:20.560 put you know, a guy that is two or three 0:04:20.600 --> 0:04:23.760 years away, way way way high. I might have them 0:04:23.800 --> 0:04:26.239 a little bit down. I still value, you know, guys 0:04:26.240 --> 0:04:28.560 that are not quite there in a high level. We'll 0:04:28.560 --> 0:04:31.240 talk about that with some of these, but you know, 0:04:31.320 --> 0:04:33.960 I try to do three year windows, So with that, 0:04:34.720 --> 0:04:36.880 I might even have some older guys a little bit 0:04:36.920 --> 0:04:39.760 higher in dynasty. And then that comes to my personal 0:04:39.800 --> 0:04:42.960 strategy here. I will tell you I tend to lean 0:04:43.440 --> 0:04:45.599 in more of a win now standpoint, because if you 0:04:45.720 --> 0:04:47.200 just legit, just break. 0:04:47.000 --> 0:04:49.320 Down like a three year window, guy, like that's my thing. 0:04:49.600 --> 0:04:52.800 And if you want to break down three basic tenets 0:04:52.920 --> 0:04:56.240 of Dynasty rosters. It's what I said before, when now 0:04:56.760 --> 0:05:00.200 balance super young playing for the future, I'm going to 0:05:00.279 --> 0:05:02.200 be on that first one. I want to win now. 0:05:02.640 --> 0:05:04.560 Me also like knowing that I feel like I'm very 0:05:04.560 --> 0:05:07.200 comfortable with being able to build a minor league system 0:05:07.480 --> 0:05:11.720 evaluate younger players. But there are incredible values. That's the 0:05:11.760 --> 0:05:15.240 biggest thing that stands out about Dynasties is the number 0:05:15.240 --> 0:05:18.520 one value is older players are going to start to fall. 0:05:18.560 --> 0:05:20.120 You're going to see that in some of my ranks, 0:05:20.200 --> 0:05:22.080 and then it starts to go to other levels. People 0:05:22.160 --> 0:05:25.720 don't want to value closers as much. Starting pitchers can 0:05:25.760 --> 0:05:28.240 get pushed down. So there's a lot of just like 0:05:28.360 --> 0:05:31.479 weird little intricacies of Dynasty. But when Now, to me, 0:05:31.960 --> 0:05:35.360 has always tended to be the best approach with little 0:05:35.400 --> 0:05:38.560 sprinkles of youth and future play, because at the end 0:05:38.560 --> 0:05:41.680 of the day, you got to hope that Dynasties are 0:05:41.680 --> 0:05:43.799 going to stick around long enough to be able to build. 0:05:43.640 --> 0:05:44.240 It for the future. 0:05:44.320 --> 0:05:46.000 So I do lean a little bit more into the 0:05:46.040 --> 0:05:48.359 win now. But as we talk, this is closer to 0:05:48.440 --> 0:05:50.520 three year windows stuff. When we go through at least 0:05:50.520 --> 0:05:51.440 what my ranks are. 0:05:51.520 --> 0:05:54.120 And for Welsh's full prospect write ups, to check out 0:05:54.120 --> 0:05:57.640 the Fantasy Baseball Black Book over on Amazon. Welsh, myself, 0:05:58.200 --> 0:06:01.480 Kelly Kirby, Casey Bubbao, all the contributors. This year, it's 0:06:01.480 --> 0:06:04.120 available on Amazon, and Welsh does a phenomenal job with 0:06:04.160 --> 0:06:06.680 all those prospect ryoups that he does there. So let's 0:06:06.680 --> 0:06:08.360 look at the big board. Let's start with the top 0:06:08.400 --> 0:06:11.000 ten here. Really like, this is kind of splitting hairs 0:06:11.000 --> 0:06:13.440 if anybody wants to, but this is I think a 0:06:13.440 --> 0:06:15.440 pretty dark good list. He got Schoey Otani at the 0:06:15.440 --> 0:06:18.480 top obvious reasons. Is he risky because of the pitching? 0:06:18.720 --> 0:06:19.000 Yeah? 0:06:19.040 --> 0:06:22.280 Sure, Is he something we've never seen before? Yes, he is, 0:06:22.360 --> 0:06:24.840 and he's very special, so he's the one one. Then 0:06:24.880 --> 0:06:27.200 you have Bobby Wood junior, Gunner Henderson, Ellie de la 0:06:27.279 --> 0:06:30.000 Cruz aggressive at four, but as he continues to fill 0:06:30.040 --> 0:06:31.760 out that frame, you have to imagine there could be 0:06:31.839 --> 0:06:34.200 even more power to be added there for Ellie de 0:06:34.279 --> 0:06:37.760 la Cruz. Juan Soto at five just signed the giant 0:06:37.800 --> 0:06:40.240 deal with the New York Mets. I'm still on a 0:06:40.279 --> 0:06:43.760 high about that. Julia Rodriguez at six, Fernando Tetis junior 0:06:43.760 --> 0:06:46.919 at seven, Ronaldocunya at eight, Paul Skeens at nine, Kyle 0:06:46.960 --> 0:06:49.599 Tucker at ten. I want to talk about Ronald Acunya. 0:06:50.000 --> 0:06:52.320 He is twenty seven years old, going on twenty eight. 0:06:52.800 --> 0:06:55.680 Now he's got both knees done. It's funny because if 0:06:55.680 --> 0:06:57.640 he asked me last year, I mean, he would probably 0:06:57.720 --> 0:06:59.600 want one or two on this list most likely. So 0:06:59.600 --> 0:07:01.440 you're getting a little bit of a discount on him. 0:07:02.000 --> 0:07:04.120 But I think people are starting to get a little concerned. 0:07:04.160 --> 0:07:06.400 He's had a bunch of injuries now before the age 0:07:06.440 --> 0:07:09.920 of thirty. My mindset is, well, he's got both knees done. 0:07:10.520 --> 0:07:13.160 That was the bigger problem, and now we should be 0:07:13.200 --> 0:07:16.160 clear sailing hopefully for the rest of his career. Do 0:07:16.240 --> 0:07:18.160 you have that same kind of confidence. You must, he's 0:07:18.160 --> 0:07:20.040 a top ten player, But do you think the market 0:07:20.080 --> 0:07:23.000 sees Ronald acunia is still as closer to a top 0:07:23.040 --> 0:07:25.920 three guy or closer to a you know, eight, nine 0:07:26.000 --> 0:07:26.400 ten guy. 0:07:26.600 --> 0:07:29.200 I've seen him outside the top ten in some dynasty rings, 0:07:29.280 --> 0:07:31.040 So I would actually say, I think there's a couple 0:07:31.120 --> 0:07:33.400 things that are in this too. You know, I'm good 0:07:33.400 --> 0:07:35.480 with Oughtani, You're good with Thughtani. I don't think everybody 0:07:35.480 --> 0:07:37.640 would be because not only do you have the age 0:07:37.680 --> 0:07:40.640 positional issue, you also have he's the old I think, 0:07:40.840 --> 0:07:43.240 let me look at this. I believe he's the oldest 0:07:43.240 --> 0:07:45.120 player on this list that I have, so that can 0:07:45.160 --> 0:07:48.000 throw some people off, but he's a unicorn. But I 0:07:48.040 --> 0:07:50.200 do think if you wanted, like Bobby Witt is number one, 0:07:50.200 --> 0:07:52.120 I'm totally fine with. If you wanted one soda in 0:07:52.160 --> 0:07:55.320 a points league once a points dynasty league, one soda 0:07:55.360 --> 0:07:58.120 would probably be higher. So then it comes back to ronald' 0:07:58.160 --> 0:07:59.960 kunyan and what you said is you're right. I think 0:08:00.080 --> 0:08:03.720 last year the conversation this was Otani or Akunya and 0:08:03.800 --> 0:08:06.160 the things that hold you back I think obviously are 0:08:06.200 --> 0:08:10.120 the injuries and the multiple injuries. He's not into Stanton 0:08:10.240 --> 0:08:13.320 territory or Buxton territory and anything like that, but we are 0:08:13.360 --> 0:08:16.720 stacking some injuries. And then he's a little bit affected 0:08:16.760 --> 0:08:20.360 by redraft values as well. Redraft ranks. Outside the top twenty, 0:08:20.400 --> 0:08:22.440 I think he's like hovering right around twenty. He was 0:08:22.440 --> 0:08:25.000 outside the top thirty about a month ago. But part 0:08:25.040 --> 0:08:26.480 of it is doesn't look like he's going to be 0:08:26.480 --> 0:08:27.960 ready for the beginning of the season, so if you're 0:08:28.000 --> 0:08:30.640 starting in a fresh new dynasty, they have to consider that. 0:08:30.640 --> 0:08:32.680 With Acunya, that you would bite a little bit of 0:08:32.679 --> 0:08:35.760 the season, that's a little secondary might run less. He 0:08:35.840 --> 0:08:39.520 also mentioned maybe that's only this year. That's something to consider. 0:08:39.920 --> 0:08:41.960 But also remember that's what we thought last time he 0:08:41.960 --> 0:08:43.160 had the knee surgery. 0:08:43.200 --> 0:08:45.800 Everyone said, uh, maybe he won't run so much. 0:08:45.920 --> 0:08:49.840 Meanwhile, seventy three slen bases. Yeah, okay, but he's even 0:08:49.920 --> 0:08:52.040 kind of talked about that potentially coming down. And then 0:08:52.080 --> 0:08:54.520 I think the other thing to potentially take a look 0:08:54.559 --> 0:08:57.280 at us if you're looking at like massive, massive impact, 0:08:57.640 --> 0:09:00.400 there were some downs from this past year. Wasn't like, 0:09:00.440 --> 0:09:02.560 you know, you're dealing with some arm thing. No, his 0:09:02.600 --> 0:09:04.920 strikeouts went way up from the year prior he hit 0:09:04.960 --> 0:09:07.160 eleven percent strikeout rate. In twenty twenty three, it went 0:09:07.240 --> 0:09:09.480 up to twenty three point nine, which was more career 0:09:09.480 --> 0:09:13.600 average lost barrel rate. Obviously, there was more season to 0:09:13.600 --> 0:09:16.080 be played, and the home run totals were way down. 0:09:16.480 --> 0:09:19.240 I would say, my best is my best way to 0:09:19.480 --> 0:09:21.880 associate all of this with these players. It's not necessarily 0:09:21.880 --> 0:09:25.080 about Ocunya being this lower dynasty value as it is, 0:09:25.120 --> 0:09:27.320 it's such an incredible tier of players. You know, Hulu 0:09:27.400 --> 0:09:29.680 Rodriguez has a down year, one of the youngest. He's 0:09:29.679 --> 0:09:33.440 great Tatis kind of retransform. He's always a thirty thirty play. 0:09:33.720 --> 0:09:35.839 We talk about Gunner Henderson, we talked about Bobby we 0:09:36.000 --> 0:09:38.440 Elie de la Cruz as well, is a unicorn freak 0:09:38.440 --> 0:09:40.440 who I think could be the number one overall. It's 0:09:40.640 --> 0:09:43.719 just such a great collection of players to put in 0:09:43.720 --> 0:09:46.480 here that I think Acunya properly fits a little bit 0:09:46.520 --> 0:09:49.240 lower with now some injury risk, little bit power down. 0:09:49.240 --> 0:09:51.800 Maybe the stolen bases come down. But like if you 0:09:51.800 --> 0:09:53.960 had the six pick in a dynasty and you got Acunya, 0:09:54.080 --> 0:09:58.000 that's pretty slick. But you're already playing maybe slightly behind 0:09:58.160 --> 0:10:00.360 the eight ball as far as your production in your 0:10:00.400 --> 0:10:02.480 first year. But to me, he's a top ten I 0:10:02.520 --> 0:10:03.920 can't put him outside the top ten. 0:10:04.760 --> 0:10:07.600 Skeens is the only pitcher on your top ten list. 0:10:09.160 --> 0:10:10.439 If I had a picture on the top ten, I 0:10:10.440 --> 0:10:12.240 would put schoobl Off there, despite the fact that it's 0:10:12.280 --> 0:10:15.600 really one and a half glorious seasons. He's older, he's 0:10:15.640 --> 0:10:19.280 twenty eight, he's left handed. He is about to hit 0:10:19.360 --> 0:10:21.920 the market soon, which we love guys coming up on 0:10:22.000 --> 0:10:24.760 contract years. My problem with Skeens is not how great 0:10:24.800 --> 0:10:27.720 he is, and you know, the routine is incredible. Everything 0:10:27.760 --> 0:10:31.720 about Skeens is fantastic. My concern is learning the lesson 0:10:31.760 --> 0:10:34.960 from years and years of doing this in decades now plural. 0:10:36.200 --> 0:10:37.880 You feel like there's going to be a Tommy John 0:10:37.880 --> 0:10:39.920 at some point when anybody that throws this hard. So 0:10:40.080 --> 0:10:42.720 the question is when does that happen And does he 0:10:42.800 --> 0:10:46.480 miss an entire season because it happens at a certain time, 0:10:46.520 --> 0:10:49.280 but like a better time quote unquote, like early in 0:10:49.320 --> 0:10:51.240 a season as opposed to do in the middle of 0:10:51.280 --> 0:10:52.520 a season, or does he miss a year and a 0:10:52.559 --> 0:10:55.320 half possibly two years because of it. It's all about 0:10:55.320 --> 0:10:57.640 the timing of that. And in Dynasty, that's just something. 0:10:57.720 --> 0:10:59.320 Of course, it could happen to any picture, can happen 0:10:59.320 --> 0:11:01.560 to school, can happ up into you know, any of 0:11:01.600 --> 0:11:04.440 these guys. But it just feels like the potential for 0:11:04.559 --> 0:11:07.240 it to happen to Skeins is a little higher than 0:11:07.240 --> 0:11:10.040 most And when you factor in the risk versus the 0:11:10.080 --> 0:11:13.640 top ten ranking, to me, I'm passing on all pictures 0:11:13.679 --> 0:11:15.319 in the top ten. If I had to buck for one, 0:11:15.360 --> 0:11:17.560 it would be Schooble, although Zack Wheeler is a guy 0:11:17.600 --> 0:11:20.520 who's been so incredibly consistent, maybe we don't give him. 0:11:20.440 --> 0:11:23.280 Enough credit to that's too old. Let's talk about Yeah, 0:11:23.280 --> 0:11:24.160 that's the problem. It's too old. 0:11:24.160 --> 0:11:26.600 So let's talk about schemes here in the top ten 0:11:26.679 --> 0:11:28.559 and the risk that that really is out there, because 0:11:28.640 --> 0:11:30.720 I'm sure it's going to be tantalizing for a lot 0:11:30.760 --> 0:11:31.640 of players out there. 0:11:31.760 --> 0:11:34.280 Yeah, I mean, I'll be frank, it would be hard 0:11:34.320 --> 0:11:36.600 for me to take schemes and take a picture. For 0:11:36.679 --> 0:11:40.720 everything that you said, I think from again, this is dynasty, 0:11:40.880 --> 0:11:43.360 So from that perspective, you know, from a three year 0:11:43.400 --> 0:11:45.679 window perspective, Scooble and schemes, Like, if you want to 0:11:45.679 --> 0:11:47.640 take Scoople over him, I think that's justified if you 0:11:47.679 --> 0:11:50.120 are thinking about the bigger scope, like there's a massive, 0:11:50.360 --> 0:11:54.080 massive age difference. I love schemes though as well, Like 0:11:54.160 --> 0:11:56.000 I'll take the talent of schemes. It's not to take 0:11:56.040 --> 0:11:58.720 away from Schooble had one of the most ridiculous k 0:11:58.840 --> 0:12:01.600 rates on his four seen thirty seven percent this past year. 0:12:01.840 --> 0:12:03.760 He had a one point nine to six ERA with 0:12:03.800 --> 0:12:06.720 a two point five to three expected thirty three percent 0:12:07.000 --> 0:12:10.520 strikeout rate was absolutely absurd, and that Splinker just became 0:12:10.600 --> 0:12:13.720 an absolutely dominant pitch. He's elite of elite. He's young, 0:12:14.120 --> 0:12:18.240 but the problems massive college innings. All of these big 0:12:18.320 --> 0:12:21.240 velocity arms have some type of an injury. Hell, I'll 0:12:21.240 --> 0:12:24.199 thow you this example. I love Sean McClanahan, so player. 0:12:24.240 --> 0:12:27.240 I always loved. He was near the tippy top, probably 0:12:27.920 --> 0:12:32.560 two or three on my list of Dynasty pitchers. Last year. 0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:35.960 Guess what two of the three of my Dynasty pitchers injured. 0:12:36.120 --> 0:12:41.400 Strider and him. So, to speak to your point, investment 0:12:41.640 --> 0:12:44.719 in a picture is really tough. But from the talent perspective, 0:12:45.000 --> 0:12:48.120 it's Paul Skeins. The age perspective, it's not remotely closing 0:12:48.160 --> 0:12:50.560 the value of what you're getting on him. The three 0:12:50.640 --> 0:12:52.959 year window maybe makes it a little bit more comfortable. 0:12:53.440 --> 0:12:56.280 This isn't like a young pitcher who is like, oh, 0:12:56.360 --> 0:12:58.679 he's like the fifteenth ranked guy and has upsie. This 0:12:58.720 --> 0:13:01.800 is number one redraft pick right now. I mean everybody 0:13:01.880 --> 0:13:04.000 expects the production of what you've seen out of him 0:13:04.040 --> 0:13:05.720 is going to be a lead of elite. Can I 0:13:05.760 --> 0:13:08.480 get three years before an injury? Yeah? I do think 0:13:08.480 --> 0:13:10.960 it's a possibility, but you are taking on inherent risk. 0:13:11.120 --> 0:13:13.599 We always chase this with Chris Sale. I would just 0:13:13.640 --> 0:13:16.160 throw out everybody year in and year out, would chase 0:13:16.160 --> 0:13:18.120 this idea. Chris ail his arm, He's going to blow 0:13:18.160 --> 0:13:19.959 it out and it never happen. It's kind of a 0:13:19.960 --> 0:13:22.600 different world that we're in right now. So I agree 0:13:22.600 --> 0:13:24.600 with you. I think this is the riskiest of all 0:13:24.640 --> 0:13:26.640 of this because you've got these incredible hitters that are 0:13:26.559 --> 0:13:29.240 around him. You've got some incredible hitters right behind him. 0:13:29.320 --> 0:13:31.720 But if you want to own the starting pitcher market, 0:13:31.920 --> 0:13:33.160 this is what you're going to have to pay for. 0:13:33.200 --> 0:13:35.280 Paul Skins. Paul Skins is higher and a lot. 0:13:35.160 --> 0:13:37.080 Of strider in your top ten last year. 0:13:36.920 --> 0:13:43.160 Welsh, No, but he was my number one sp for Dynasty. 0:13:42.840 --> 0:13:44.480 Right, Well, there's the cautionary tale. That's why. 0:13:44.679 --> 0:13:45.480 Yeah, one hundred percent. 0:13:45.880 --> 0:13:47.839 I imagine he was top fifteen or twenty for sure. 0:13:47.880 --> 0:13:49.199 Yes, I think it was like I want to say, 0:13:49.200 --> 0:13:51.959 like yeah, nineteen or eighteen or something like that, right 0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:52.680 in that range. 0:13:52.920 --> 0:13:55.120 Yeah, all right, let's get to the next grouping of 0:13:55.160 --> 0:13:59.240 ten here eleven through twenty Corbyn Carroll with Arizona Jackson, Curio, 0:13:59.280 --> 0:14:01.240 who really turned out on the second half at twelve, 0:14:01.280 --> 0:14:05.079 with Milwaukee lad Junior at thirteen, Aaron Judge at fourteen, 0:14:05.240 --> 0:14:08.520 Jose Ramirez at fifteen. Maybe not enough respect for Jose Ramirez. 0:14:08.559 --> 0:14:09.719 I know he's not as young as some of the 0:14:09.760 --> 0:14:11.960 other guys in this list, but man, oh man, that 0:14:12.000 --> 0:14:13.720 guy just continues to have seiye. 0:14:13.760 --> 0:14:16.000 So you take a three year window, I mean, this 0:14:16.120 --> 0:14:17.840 is huge value right there. 0:14:17.840 --> 0:14:19.080 But I was thinking the same thing. 0:14:19.120 --> 0:14:21.360 I'm looking at him there and I'm thinking to myself, Man, 0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:22.920 do I feel better about him in a three year 0:14:22.960 --> 0:14:24.080 window than Jackson Cheerio? 0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:28.480 Probably? Like I just do. I love Cheerio, but like. 0:14:28.440 --> 0:14:30.120 I think I know what I'm getting in the next 0:14:30.160 --> 0:14:32.080 couple of years, and I think Cherio's is a great 0:14:32.080 --> 0:14:35.120 player who's going to really be special. But three year 0:14:35.160 --> 0:14:39.240 window maybe Jose Ramirez, But regardless, We'll continue on here 0:14:39.280 --> 0:14:43.440 sixteen to Rescooble, seventeen, Bryce Harper, and then Jordan Alvarez 0:14:43.520 --> 0:14:48.000 at eighteen. We have Mookie Bets at nineteen, James Wood 0:14:48.000 --> 0:14:50.680 at twenty. Let's start with Corbyn Carroll a mixed bag 0:14:50.800 --> 0:14:56.960 last year, very frustrating first half, prolific second half, sophomore 0:14:56.960 --> 0:15:01.040 slumps happened. Adjustments get made. He made them, so obviously, 0:15:01.200 --> 0:15:05.280 you know, putting your Arizona Diamondbacks love aside, you know 0:15:05.400 --> 0:15:07.840 that Corbyn Carroll, you and I are both big fans 0:15:07.840 --> 0:15:09.880 of his. He did what he had to do for 0:15:10.000 --> 0:15:13.040 me and clearly for you two with this ranking where okay, 0:15:13.080 --> 0:15:15.840 the league adjusted to you. You made adjustments back second 0:15:15.880 --> 0:15:20.560 half was fantastic and now it should be theoretically clear sailing. Yes, 0:15:20.600 --> 0:15:23.040 do you worry about frame or size with Corbyn Carroll 0:15:23.040 --> 0:15:24.280 in terms of long term investment? 0:15:24.880 --> 0:15:26.800 You know, fram in size is not it's not a 0:15:26.840 --> 0:15:28.560 big I mean, you could have had that same argument 0:15:28.560 --> 0:15:30.680 about like hose Al Tuve his entire career and he's 0:15:30.680 --> 0:15:31.640 consolutely going. 0:15:31.480 --> 0:15:34.000 Well and worse because he plays the infield because exactly 0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:36.080 and more, you know, he's a little bit thicker and 0:15:36.120 --> 0:15:38.240 stuff like that, and you could make arguments that maybe 0:15:38.280 --> 0:15:42.360 the everybody on the planet was like Corbyn Carroll's shoulder. 0:15:42.400 --> 0:15:45.160 Those two things were peanut butter and jelly for conversations 0:15:45.160 --> 0:15:47.720 about why he wasn't producing as well, and you could 0:15:47.720 --> 0:15:49.880 maybe say, like, oh, a guy with that type of frame, 0:15:50.160 --> 0:15:51.960 you know in the velocity you want to talk about 0:15:51.960 --> 0:15:55.040 bat speed We have new bat speed trackers this past year, 0:15:55.080 --> 0:15:56.880 and God has gonna be amazing being able to go 0:15:56.960 --> 0:15:59.160 year over year bat speed. But you want to talk 0:15:59.160 --> 0:16:01.920 about bat speed, he was like top essentially twentieth percentile 0:16:02.000 --> 0:16:05.040 in the league, quite a bit faster than the average. 0:16:05.120 --> 0:16:08.000 So that type of like framing could be the issue. 0:16:08.040 --> 0:16:11.240 We never did find out if there was a shoulder 0:16:11.320 --> 0:16:13.360 injury that was actually going on. What we did know 0:16:13.440 --> 0:16:15.680 and I talked about all year, was there was a 0:16:15.760 --> 0:16:18.920 hole in the swing in his rookie year that people 0:16:18.920 --> 0:16:20.760 didn't take advantage of. They saw it in the off 0:16:20.840 --> 0:16:24.040 season and they pounded it. This past year was up 0:16:24.080 --> 0:16:27.640 and inside. He could not figure it out until the 0:16:27.680 --> 0:16:30.960 second half. I mean, the power surge was bad. In 0:16:31.000 --> 0:16:34.040 the first half. He had five homers, but in three 0:16:34.120 --> 0:16:35.680 hundred and fifty three of bats in the first half. 0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:38.160 In the second half, in two hundred and thirty six 0:16:38.200 --> 0:16:41.760 at bats, he hit seventeen homers. He tripled his power output. 0:16:41.920 --> 0:16:44.200 He figured it out to twelve average in the first 0:16:44.240 --> 0:16:48.160 half two fifty eight in the second half. Stole I mean, 0:16:48.280 --> 0:16:50.800 the stolen base pace was higher because he was getting 0:16:50.840 --> 0:16:54.680 on base more. But there's some downside. So we've now experienced. 0:16:54.720 --> 0:16:57.400 What the downside is his expected batting average was only 0:16:57.480 --> 0:17:00.200 two forty coming off of hitting what was it to 0:17:00.760 --> 0:17:02.960 thirty one? So that doesn't like if he had like 0:17:03.000 --> 0:17:05.040 an expected two seventy five, we'd be like, oh my gosh, 0:17:05.080 --> 0:17:07.440 Corbyn Carroll could be back to being a three hundred hitter. 0:17:07.720 --> 0:17:09.480 What we found out about him was he's a guy 0:17:09.480 --> 0:17:11.920 who wants to work through it. Maybe he's not as 0:17:12.000 --> 0:17:14.359 high contact of a player as we thought before, but 0:17:14.560 --> 0:17:16.960 he proved h whatever you thought about the injuries, that 0:17:17.000 --> 0:17:19.600 the power was still there. He showed twenty plus power. 0:17:19.880 --> 0:17:23.080 He still stole thirty five bases. These paces weren't as 0:17:23.160 --> 0:17:27.040 much as the rookie season, but he walked more, he 0:17:27.119 --> 0:17:29.919 struck out less. This past year. He kept barreling the 0:17:29.920 --> 0:17:32.080 ball and he was able to push through a monster 0:17:32.200 --> 0:17:34.080 second half. All the talent in the world to be 0:17:34.160 --> 0:17:36.480 a twenty five to fifty player year in and year out, 0:17:36.680 --> 0:17:39.240 and he worked through some big bumps. Is out of 0:17:39.400 --> 0:17:42.000 first round fantasy talent? I still think it is, but 0:17:42.080 --> 0:17:44.600 there's risk and that's why the last thing I would 0:17:44.600 --> 0:17:47.200 say is it is a very interesting and weird situation 0:17:47.560 --> 0:17:49.920 when you get to like right up to Skeens. Then 0:17:49.960 --> 0:17:52.040