Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros MLB. It is me,
Speaker 1: Joey p joe Pisapia with me is the Welsh in
Speaker 1: our first full show of twenty twenty five. So of
Speaker 1: course we're gonna look ahead to the future. We're gonna
Speaker 1: talk dynasty rankings today. We're gonna go through Welsh's top
Speaker 1: fifty here, maybe some guys on the fringe, and also
Speaker 1: make sure you keep a lookout because Welsh is working
Speaker 1: on the top one fifty article that's gonna be on
Speaker 1: Fantasypros dot com in just a few short hours from now.
Speaker 1: It might even be up by the time this show
Speaker 1: comes up, so just run over there and check it out.
Speaker 1: Welsh Dynasty is your bread and butter.
Speaker 2: You're the prospect gurer.
Speaker 1: You're the guy at the AFL who is you know,
Speaker 1: kissing babies and shaking hands and doing everything you need
Speaker 1: to do to get on the field to make sure
Speaker 1: that you are getting your finger on the pulse of
Speaker 1: what's going on here with some of these young players,
Speaker 1: but it's also some established veterans too.
Speaker 2: It's a mix here in this.
Speaker 1: Top fifty that we're gonna break down today with the tears,
Speaker 1: so generally speaking, you know when you are approaching dynastys,
Speaker 1: especially for the first time, and these you know, clean
Speaker 1: leagues that are starting in twenty twenty five, or if
Speaker 1: people are just trying to evaluate some of their players
Speaker 1: and what their values really should be heading into another
Speaker 1: year of dynasty and a league that already exists, what's
Speaker 1: your best practice when you put it out there for
Speaker 1: the people in terms of trying to create a balance
Speaker 1: of prospects and win.
Speaker 3: Now, Yeah, no, this is like the big thing because
Speaker 3: I think there's a couple encompass things in here in Dynasty.
Speaker 3: A I would always tell everybody, no Dynasty rank or
Speaker 3: list is perfect, and I know that like that can
Speaker 3: be like contrite like Okoyd, well rank now, but like
Speaker 3: you get a redraft list, you kind of know what
Speaker 3: it is. But in Dynasty, things can be whatever that
Speaker 3: you want them to be. The Willy Wonka and the
Speaker 3: Chocolate Factory of fantasy baseball because it's like you can
Speaker 3: construct this super young team to play for the future,
Speaker 3: but you got to eat a couple of years. You
Speaker 3: can take advantage of values where people are only wanting
Speaker 3: young players, and you could take veterans to try to
Speaker 3: win now. So my rank isn't necessarily going to fully
Speaker 3: encompass what you might want to do with your specific one,
Speaker 3: So you have to understand that first and foremost. That's
Speaker 3: the big thing. But if you know you're in a
Speaker 3: restart a refresh of dynasty, there are different ways to
Speaker 3: approach it. So my rank that we're going to talk
Speaker 3: about is a kind of overarching theme which you would
Speaker 3: have to make your own adjustments. I do you know
Speaker 3: redraft and dynasty and prospect stuff, And I've also done
Speaker 3: it on my Patreon as well at in this League
Speaker 3: dot com. And one thing I've always said is like,
Speaker 3: if you are a win now team you want to
Speaker 3: start transitioning from dynasty into redraft, you could do that
Speaker 3: here with Fantasy pros and their ranks top one hundred.
Speaker 3: Maybe really make that as a hyper focus for what
Speaker 3: you're doing in a dynasty draft, then start moving to
Speaker 3: your redraft. On the inverse, if you are a I'm
Speaker 3: going to play for the future, I want to get
Speaker 3: a bunch of the young guys, Well take that top
Speaker 3: one hundred and then start reverting to a prospect list.
Speaker 3: So that's how you would do that. So you have
Speaker 3: to come to terms with are you a win now,
Speaker 3: are you a balance, or are you a play for
Speaker 3: the future. So we'll talk about that in all of
Speaker 3: these ranks, because there would be certain levels where we
Speaker 3: would adjust to like, oh, if I'm a win now team,
Speaker 3: let's start to bump this up. I don't think that
Speaker 3: exists really in the top It doesn't exist in the
Speaker 3: top ten, get into the top twenty, kind of doesn't
Speaker 3: top thirty a little bit, and then it's like, once
Speaker 3: you get outside the top fifty, then it really is
Speaker 3: important to know where you are. So this is an
Speaker 3: all encompass list that is talking more about balance, but
Speaker 3: you do have to understand if you're a refresh and
Speaker 3: you're a new dynasty, what type of team are you
Speaker 3: trying to construct? If you're already in a dynasty, this
Speaker 3: is going to be probably more about player evaluation, or
Speaker 3: at least where I value these players in a dynasty overall.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and one other note I would throw out there
Speaker 1: for those starting up dynasty leagues too is take advantage
Speaker 1: when when people maybe go to prospect heavy with you
Speaker 1: know a lot of younger guys who aren't really proven
Speaker 1: even at the minor league level, yet pivot and take
Speaker 1: the value of some of those guys that are established veterans.
Speaker 1: Even if they're thirty years old, there's still a lot
Speaker 1: of baseball left in some of these guys.
Speaker 3: It's a great point. Two things I'm gonna add to that.
Speaker 3: My ranks, especially my prospect ranks. We're not necessarily doing
Speaker 3: prospect ranks here. My prospect ranks doing compass an overarching worldview.
Speaker 3: But my dynasty ranks are kind of a three year window.
Speaker 3: I look at these as a three year window in value.
Speaker 3: So you might have some dynasty rankers that go and
Speaker 3: put you know, a guy that is two or three
Speaker 3: years away, way way way high. I might have them
Speaker 3: a little bit down. I still value, you know, guys
Speaker 3: that are not quite there in a high level. We'll
Speaker 3: talk about that with some of these, but you know,
Speaker 3: I try to do three year windows, So with that,
Speaker 3: I might even have some older guys a little bit
Speaker 3: higher in dynasty. And then that comes to my personal
Speaker 3: strategy here. I will tell you I tend to lean
Speaker 3: in more of a win now standpoint, because if you
Speaker 3: just legit, just break.
Speaker 1: Down like a three year window, guy, like that's my thing.
Speaker 3: And if you want to break down three basic tenets
Speaker 3: of Dynasty rosters. It's what I said before, when now
Speaker 3: balance super young playing for the future, I'm going to
Speaker 3: be on that first one. I want to win now.
Speaker 3: Me also like knowing that I feel like I'm very
Speaker 3: comfortable with being able to build a minor league system
Speaker 3: evaluate younger players. But there are incredible values. That's the
Speaker 3: biggest thing that stands out about Dynasties is the number
Speaker 3: one value is older players are going to start to fall.
Speaker 3: You're going to see that in some of my ranks,
Speaker 3: and then it starts to go to other levels. People
Speaker 3: don't want to value closers as much. Starting pitchers can
Speaker 3: get pushed down. So there's a lot of just like
Speaker 3: weird little intricacies of Dynasty. But when Now, to me,
Speaker 3: has always tended to be the best approach with little
Speaker 3: sprinkles of youth and future play, because at the end
Speaker 3: of the day, you got to hope that Dynasties are
Speaker 3: going to stick around long enough to be able to build.
Speaker 2: It for the future.
Speaker 3: So I do lean a little bit more into the
Speaker 3: win now. But as we talk, this is closer to
Speaker 3: three year windows stuff. When we go through at least
Speaker 3: what my ranks are.
Speaker 1: And for Welsh's full prospect write ups, to check out
Speaker 1: the Fantasy Baseball Black Book over on Amazon. Welsh, myself,
Speaker 1: Kelly Kirby, Casey Bubbao, all the contributors. This year, it's
Speaker 1: available on Amazon, and Welsh does a phenomenal job with
Speaker 1: all those prospect ryoups that he does there. So let's
Speaker 1: look at the big board. Let's start with the top
Speaker 1: ten here. Really like, this is kind of splitting hairs
Speaker 1: if anybody wants to, but this is I think a
Speaker 1: pretty dark good list. He got Schoey Otani at the
Speaker 1: top obvious reasons. Is he risky because of the pitching?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 1: Sure, Is he something we've never seen before? Yes, he is,
Speaker 1: and he's very special, so he's the one one. Then
Speaker 1: you have Bobby Wood junior, Gunner Henderson, Ellie de la
Speaker 1: Cruz aggressive at four, but as he continues to fill
Speaker 1: out that frame, you have to imagine there could be
Speaker 1: even more power to be added there for Ellie de
Speaker 1: la Cruz. Juan Soto at five just signed the giant
Speaker 1: deal with the New York Mets. I'm still on a
Speaker 1: high about that. Julia Rodriguez at six, Fernando Tetis junior
Speaker 1: at seven, Ronaldocunya at eight, Paul Skeens at nine, Kyle
Speaker 1: Tucker at ten. I want to talk about Ronald Acunya.
Speaker 1: He is twenty seven years old, going on twenty eight.
Speaker 1: Now he's got both knees done. It's funny because if
Speaker 1: he asked me last year, I mean, he would probably
Speaker 1: want one or two on this list most likely. So
Speaker 1: you're getting a little bit of a discount on him.
Speaker 1: But I think people are starting to get a little concerned.
Speaker 1: He's had a bunch of injuries now before the age
Speaker 1: of thirty. My mindset is, well, he's got both knees done.
Speaker 1: That was the bigger problem, and now we should be
Speaker 1: clear sailing hopefully for the rest of his career. Do
Speaker 1: you have that same kind of confidence. You must, he's
Speaker 1: a top ten player, But do you think the market
Speaker 1: sees Ronald acunia is still as closer to a top
Speaker 1: three guy or closer to a you know, eight, nine
Speaker 1: ten guy.
Speaker 3: I've seen him outside the top ten in some dynasty rings,
Speaker 3: So I would actually say, I think there's a couple
Speaker 3: things that are in this too. You know, I'm good
Speaker 3: with Oughtani, You're good with Thughtani. I don't think everybody
Speaker 3: would be because not only do you have the age
Speaker 3: positional issue, you also have he's the old I think,
Speaker 3: let me look at this. I believe he's the oldest
Speaker 3: player on this list that I have, so that can
Speaker 3: throw some people off, but he's a unicorn. But I
Speaker 3: do think if you wanted, like Bobby Witt is number one,
Speaker 3: I'm totally fine with. If you wanted one soda in
Speaker 3: a points league once a points dynasty league, one soda
Speaker 3: would probably be higher. So then it comes back to ronald'
Speaker 3: kunyan and what you said is you're right. I think
Speaker 3: last year the conversation this was Otani or Akunya and
Speaker 3: the things that hold you back I think obviously are
Speaker 3: the injuries and the multiple injuries. He's not into Stanton
Speaker 3: territory or Buxton territory and anything like that, but we are
Speaker 3: stacking some injuries. And then he's a little bit affected
Speaker 3: by redraft values as well. Redraft ranks. Outside the top twenty,
Speaker 3: I think he's like hovering right around twenty. He was
Speaker 3: outside the top thirty about a month ago. But part
Speaker 3: of it is doesn't look like he's going to be
Speaker 3: ready for the beginning of the season, so if you're
Speaker 3: starting in a fresh new dynasty, they have to consider that.
Speaker 3: With Acunya, that you would bite a little bit of
Speaker 3: the season, that's a little secondary might run less. He
Speaker 3: also mentioned maybe that's only this year. That's something to consider.
Speaker 1: But also remember that's what we thought last time he
Speaker 1: had the knee surgery.
Speaker 2: Everyone said, uh, maybe he won't run so much.
Speaker 3: Meanwhile, seventy three slen bases. Yeah, okay, but he's even
Speaker 3: kind of talked about that potentially coming down. And then
Speaker 3: I think the other thing to potentially take a look
Speaker 3: at us if you're looking at like massive, massive impact,
Speaker 3: there were some downs from this past year. Wasn't like,
Speaker 3: you know, you're dealing with some arm thing. No, his
Speaker 3: strikeouts went way up from the year prior he hit
Speaker 3: eleven percent strikeout rate. In twenty twenty three, it went
Speaker 3: up to twenty three point nine, which was more career
Speaker 3: average lost barrel rate. Obviously, there was more season to
Speaker 3: be played, and the home run totals were way down.
Speaker 3: I would say, my best is my best way to
Speaker 3: associate all of this with these players. It's not necessarily
Speaker 3: about Ocunya being this lower dynasty value as it is,
Speaker 3: it's such an incredible tier of players. You know, Hulu
Speaker 3: Rodriguez has a down year, one of the youngest. He's
Speaker 3: great Tatis kind of retransform. He's always a thirty thirty play.
Speaker 3: We talk about Gunner Henderson, we talked about Bobby we
Speaker 3: Elie de la Cruz as well, is a unicorn freak
Speaker 3: who I think could be the number one overall. It's
Speaker 3: just such a great collection of players to put in
Speaker 3: here that I think Acunya properly fits a little bit
Speaker 3: lower with now some injury risk, little bit power down.
Speaker 3: Maybe the stolen bases come down. But like if you
Speaker 3: had the six pick in a dynasty and you got Acunya,
Speaker 3: that's pretty slick. But you're already playing maybe slightly behind
Speaker 3: the eight ball as far as your production in your
Speaker 3: first year. But to me, he's a top ten I
Speaker 3: can't put him outside the top ten.
Speaker 1: Skeens is the only pitcher on your top ten list.
Speaker 1: If I had a picture on the top ten, I
Speaker 1: would put schoobl Off there, despite the fact that it's
Speaker 1: really one and a half glorious seasons. He's older, he's
Speaker 1: twenty eight, he's left handed. He is about to hit
Speaker 1: the market soon, which we love guys coming up on
Speaker 1: contract years. My problem with Skeens is not how great
Speaker 1: he is, and you know, the routine is incredible. Everything
Speaker 1: about Skeens is fantastic. My concern is learning the lesson
Speaker 1: from years and years of doing this in decades now plural.
Speaker 1: You feel like there's going to be a Tommy John
Speaker 1: at some point when anybody that throws this hard. So
Speaker 1: the question is when does that happen And does he
Speaker 1: miss an entire season because it happens at a certain time,
Speaker 1: but like a better time quote unquote, like early in
Speaker 1: a season as opposed to do in the middle of
Speaker 1: a season, or does he miss a year and a
Speaker 1: half possibly two years because of it. It's all about
Speaker 1: the timing of that. And in Dynasty, that's just something.
Speaker 1: Of course, it could happen to any picture, can happen
Speaker 1: to school, can happ up into you know, any of
Speaker 1: these guys. But it just feels like the potential for
Speaker 1: it to happen to Skeins is a little higher than
Speaker 1: most And when you factor in the risk versus the
Speaker 1: top ten ranking, to me, I'm passing on all pictures
Speaker 1: in the top ten. If I had to buck for one,
Speaker 1: it would be Schooble, although Zack Wheeler is a guy
Speaker 1: who's been so incredibly consistent, maybe we don't give him.
Speaker 2: Enough credit to that's too old. Let's talk about Yeah,
Speaker 2: that's the problem. It's too old.
Speaker 1: So let's talk about schemes here in the top ten
Speaker 1: and the risk that that really is out there, because
Speaker 1: I'm sure it's going to be tantalizing for a lot
Speaker 1: of players out there.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I'll be frank, it would be hard
Speaker 3: for me to take schemes and take a picture. For
Speaker 3: everything that you said, I think from again, this is dynasty,
Speaker 3: So from that perspective, you know, from a three year
Speaker 3: window perspective, Scooble and schemes, Like, if you want to
Speaker 3: take Scoople over him, I think that's justified if you
Speaker 3: are thinking about the bigger scope, like there's a massive,
Speaker 3: massive age difference. I love schemes though as well, Like
Speaker 3: I'll take the talent of schemes. It's not to take
Speaker 3: away from Schooble had one of the most ridiculous k
Speaker 3: rates on his four seen thirty seven percent this past year.
Speaker 3: He had a one point nine to six ERA with
Speaker 3: a two point five to three expected thirty three percent
Speaker 3: strikeout rate was absolutely absurd, and that Splinker just became
Speaker 3: an absolutely dominant pitch. He's elite of elite. He's young,
Speaker 3: but the problems massive college innings. All of these big
Speaker 3: velocity arms have some type of an injury. Hell, I'll
Speaker 3: thow you this example. I love Sean McClanahan, so player.
Speaker 3: I always loved. He was near the tippy top, probably
Speaker 3: two or three on my list of Dynasty pitchers. Last year.
Speaker 3: Guess what two of the three of my Dynasty pitchers injured.
Speaker 3: Strider and him. So, to speak to your point, investment
Speaker 3: in a picture is really tough. But from the talent perspective,
Speaker 3: it's Paul Skeins. The age perspective, it's not remotely closing
Speaker 3: the value of what you're getting on him. The three
Speaker 3: year window maybe makes it a little bit more comfortable.
Speaker 3: This isn't like a young pitcher who is like, oh,
Speaker 3: he's like the fifteenth ranked guy and has upsie. This
Speaker 3: is number one redraft pick right now. I mean everybody
Speaker 3: expects the production of what you've seen out of him
Speaker 3: is going to be a lead of elite. Can I
Speaker 3: get three years before an injury? Yeah? I do think
Speaker 3: it's a possibility, but you are taking on inherent risk.
Speaker 3: We always chase this with Chris Sale. I would just
Speaker 3: throw out everybody year in and year out, would chase
Speaker 3: this idea. Chris ail his arm, He's going to blow
Speaker 3: it out and it never happen. It's kind of a
Speaker 3: different world that we're in right now. So I agree
Speaker 3: with you. I think this is the riskiest of all
Speaker 3: of this because you've got these incredible hitters that are
Speaker 3: around him. You've got some incredible hitters right behind him.
Speaker 3: But if you want to own the starting pitcher market,
Speaker 3: this is what you're going to have to pay for.
Speaker 3: Paul Skins. Paul Skins is higher and a lot.
Speaker 1: Of strider in your top ten last year.
Speaker 3: Welsh, No, but he was my number one sp for Dynasty.
Speaker 1: Right, Well, there's the cautionary tale. That's why.
Speaker 3: Yeah, one hundred percent.
Speaker 1: I imagine he was top fifteen or twenty for sure.
Speaker 3: Yes, I think it was like I want to say,
Speaker 3: like yeah, nineteen or eighteen or something like that, right
Speaker 3: in that range.
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, let's get to the next grouping of
Speaker 1: ten here eleven through twenty Corbyn Carroll with Arizona Jackson, Curio,
Speaker 1: who really turned out on the second half at twelve,
Speaker 1: with Milwaukee lad Junior at thirteen, Aaron Judge at fourteen,
Speaker 1: Jose Ramirez at fifteen. Maybe not enough respect for Jose Ramirez.
Speaker 1: I know he's not as young as some of the
Speaker 1: other guys in this list, but man, oh man, that
Speaker 1: guy just continues to have seiye.
Speaker 3: So you take a three year window, I mean, this
Speaker 3: is huge value right there.
Speaker 2: But I was thinking the same thing.
Speaker 1: I'm looking at him there and I'm thinking to myself, Man,
Speaker 1: do I feel better about him in a three year
Speaker 1: window than Jackson Cheerio?
Speaker 2: Probably? Like I just do. I love Cheerio, but like.
Speaker 1: I think I know what I'm getting in the next
Speaker 1: couple of years, and I think Cherio's is a great
Speaker 1: player who's going to really be special. But three year
Speaker 1: window maybe Jose Ramirez, But regardless, We'll continue on here
Speaker 1: sixteen to Rescooble, seventeen, Bryce Harper, and then Jordan Alvarez
Speaker 1: at eighteen. We have Mookie Bets at nineteen, James Wood
Speaker 1: at twenty. Let's start with Corbyn Carroll a mixed bag
Speaker 1: last year, very frustrating first half, prolific second half, sophomore
Speaker 1: slumps happened. Adjustments get made. He made them, so obviously,
Speaker 1: you know, putting your Arizona Diamondbacks love aside, you know
Speaker 1: that Corbyn Carroll, you and I are both big fans
Speaker 1: of his. He did what he had to do for
Speaker 1: me and clearly for you two with this ranking where okay,
Speaker 1: the league adjusted to you. You made adjustments back second
Speaker 1: half was fantastic and now it should be theoretically clear sailing. Yes,
Speaker 1: do you worry about frame or size with Corbyn Carroll
Speaker 1: in terms of long term investment?
Speaker 3: You know, fram in size is not it's not a
Speaker 3: big I mean, you could have had that same argument
Speaker 3: about like hose Al Tuve his entire career and he's
Speaker 3: consolutely going.
Speaker 1: Well and worse because he plays the infield because exactly
Speaker 1: and more, you know, he's a little bit thicker and
Speaker 1: stuff like that, and you could make arguments that maybe
Speaker 1: the everybody on the planet was like Corbyn Carroll's shoulder.
Speaker 3: Those two things were peanut butter and jelly for conversations
Speaker 3: about why he wasn't producing as well, and you could
Speaker 3: maybe say, like, oh, a guy with that type of frame,
Speaker 3: you know in the velocity you want to talk about
Speaker 3: bat speed We have new bat speed trackers this past year,
Speaker 3: and God has gonna be amazing being able to go
Speaker 3: year over year bat speed. But you want to talk
Speaker 3: about bat speed, he was like top essentially twentieth percentile
Speaker 3: in the league, quite a bit faster than the average.
Speaker 3: So that type of like framing could be the issue.
Speaker 3: We never did find out if there was a shoulder
Speaker 3: injury that was actually going on. What we did know
Speaker 3: and I talked about all year, was there was a
Speaker 3: hole in the swing in his rookie year that people
Speaker 3: didn't take advantage of. They saw it in the off
Speaker 3: season and they pounded it. This past year was up
Speaker 3: and inside. He could not figure it out until the
Speaker 3: second half. I mean, the power surge was bad. In
Speaker 3: the first half. He had five homers, but in three
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty three of bats in the first half.
Speaker 3: In the second half, in two hundred and thirty six
Speaker 3: at bats, he hit seventeen homers. He tripled his power output.
Speaker 3: He figured it out to twelve average in the first
Speaker 3: half two fifty eight in the second half. Stole I mean,
Speaker 3: the stolen base pace was higher because he was getting
Speaker 3: on base more. But there's some downside. So we've now experienced.
Speaker 3: What the downside is his expected batting average was only
Speaker 3: two forty coming off of hitting what was it to
Speaker 3: thirty one? So that doesn't like if he had like
Speaker 3: an expected two seventy five, we'd be like, oh my gosh,
Speaker 3: Corbyn Carroll could be back to being a three hundred hitter.
Speaker 3: What we found out about him was he's a guy
Speaker 3: who wants to work through it. Maybe he's not as
Speaker 3: high contact of a player as we thought before, but
Speaker 3: he proved h whatever you thought about the injuries, that
Speaker 3: the power was still there. He showed twenty plus power.
Speaker 3: He still stole thirty five bases. These paces weren't as
Speaker 3: much as the rookie season, but he walked more, he
Speaker 3: struck out less. This past year. He kept barreling the
Speaker 3: ball and he was able to push through a monster
Speaker 3: second half. All the talent in the world to be
Speaker 3: a twenty five to fifty player year in and year out,
Speaker 3: and he worked through some big bumps. Is out of
Speaker 3: first round fantasy talent? I still think it is, but
Speaker 3: there's risk and that's why the last thing I would
Speaker 3: say is it is a very interesting and weird situation
Speaker 3: when you get to like right up to Skeens. Then
Speaker 3: you get Skeens, and then you look at all this
Speaker 3: collection of players where there's these older guys, there's Judge,
Speaker 3: there's Ramirez, and then there's the Corbyn Carrolls, and then
Speaker 3: there's the Jackson Turios. You're now really bound and sing,
Speaker 3: you know, do I want the upside versus what I've
Speaker 3: always had? And that's why, Like, if you wanted to
Speaker 3: take Cozier Ramirez over Carol here, I think you could
Speaker 3: last time, I'll say, to be honest, yeah, and I
Speaker 3: think I know you would. I My rank isn't one
Speaker 3: hundred percent in a three year window. It's weighted to
Speaker 3: a three year windows. So the three year window takes
Speaker 3: a higher weight. So when you do the whole, like,
Speaker 3: would I rather have Ramirez overturio? Yeah, maybe I see that,
Speaker 3: but you still have to think about the long term.
Speaker 3: But yes, Corbin Carrol has inherent risk. But I think
Speaker 3: the second half told us a really great story that
Speaker 3: this is one of those guys that can be twenty
Speaker 3: to twenty five with anywhere from thirty five to fifty
Speaker 3: plus stolen bases in a high powered offense. So I
Speaker 3: still love him, and yes I am a Homer. He's
Speaker 3: literally right above me on the camera.
Speaker 1: Now, you got two guys named Corbin on the Diamondbacks.
Speaker 1: How's that going to work out?
Speaker 3: I know all the Cordle thing.
Speaker 1: We've also got Vlad Garrow Junior on this list at thirteen.
Speaker 1: Who uncertainty next year where he's going to be? How
Speaker 1: do you factor that in too, because you know a
Speaker 1: lot of I think the future of Lad Guerrero has
Speaker 1: to do with what environment is in and hopefully it's
Speaker 1: a good environment for him. We've seen him struggle at
Speaker 1: times with weight, We've seen him struggle at times at
Speaker 1: the plate. And last year was a great season for Vlad,
Speaker 1: a big bounce back again monster a second half, that
Speaker 1: big contract looming. Is Vlad Guerrero Junior for you, with
Speaker 1: that uncertainty of where he is next year a good investment.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: I don't think the certainty that looks like he's not
Speaker 3: going to be a blue Jay. It might be more
Speaker 3: certain that he's not feeling to be there. Yeah, So
Speaker 3: the uncertainty you're talking about is the destination. I think
Speaker 3: most of the places he's going to go, or at
Speaker 3: least he's projected to, are better hitting environments. You know
Speaker 3: Boston is the number one right now. I'll take him
Speaker 3: hitting in Boston over Toronto.
Speaker 1: So I want him in San Francisco, you know what
Speaker 1: I mean? That would be where it's like they've got money.
Speaker 1: They've been trying to spend it for the last three
Speaker 1: years so hard.
Speaker 3: That would be one that would that would you're one
Speaker 3: hundred percent right, but if you were a Dodger, that
Speaker 3: would be the best thing on the planet. Can we
Speaker 3: not carry now we're not going on Boston? Seems like
Speaker 3: a likely situation. So when you talk about the uncertainty,
Speaker 3: the destination is probably going to be a better hitting environment.
Speaker 3: The destination the team will probably have better players around
Speaker 3: him for better run support. And then on top of it,
Speaker 3: you put this twenty five year old first baseman who
Speaker 3: was top ten percentile across the board in hitting thirteen
Speaker 3: point seven percent barrel rate, top nine percent hard hit rate,
Speaker 3: fifty four point nine, top three percent in the league.
Speaker 3: He hit three twenty three. His expected batting average was
Speaker 3: three twenty one. It's like the best in the league.
Speaker 3: He checked every single box, doesn't strike out, walked more,
Speaker 3: barreled more. He's in a contract year right now. And
Speaker 3: then the environment can get better. Everything is in this
Speaker 3: beautiful scenario for Vlad. The only negatives from Dynasty is
Speaker 3: he's kind of like a first baseman doesn't steal bases,
Speaker 3: but he's centered around you know, older players like I mean,
Speaker 3: Judge is going to hit more homers, but he's a
Speaker 3: bit older. You can pair out some of the other
Speaker 3: first basemen that have kind of lost some of the value.
Speaker 3: Bryce Harper is probably a good comp but he's younger.
Speaker 3: He's still just really young. He's an incredible bat who's
Speaker 3: shown high batting average and is a elite four category player.
Speaker 3: So I love Lad from the age, from the uncertainty
Speaker 3: that is probably only going to be a plus. I
Speaker 3: just think he's a great Dynasty buy in the second round.
Speaker 3: But you were kind of devoid of stolen bases. There
Speaker 3: a really great pairing if you were, if you had
Speaker 3: the ability to Ellie and vladd would be like a
Speaker 3: killer one two punch for stolen bass. Well.
Speaker 1: Actually it's funny because in this ten team where you're
Speaker 1: wrapping around here, Akunya in Vlad would be the the
Speaker 1: actual combination there.
Speaker 3: Love that, too shabby, Go play a ten team Dynasty,
Speaker 3: then go.
Speaker 2: Do that Alaska Crack the Talk twenty two.
Speaker 1: I want to talk about it is James Wood, who
Speaker 1: last year at twenty one, made his debut hit two
Speaker 1: sixty four seven eighty one ops, nine homers, fourteen steals.
Speaker 1: Stage didn't look too big. I'm aggressive on him, and
Speaker 1: I'm happy you are too. I want to talk about
Speaker 1: your aggression with James Wood because I think we see
Speaker 1: eye to eye on this guy.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think James Wood is the first representation
Speaker 3: of the young player where their redraft value does not
Speaker 3: equate to the dynasty, because that's the thing that everybody
Speaker 3: has to come to terms with in dynasties. You're like,
Speaker 3: oh my god, why is this guy who's never played,
Speaker 3: you know, I never had a single atout in the majors.
Speaker 3: Why is this guy in the top sixty over this
Speaker 3: other guy? James Wood is the first representation of redraft
Speaker 3: not translating to it, but it is. You know, it's
Speaker 3: all the potential, like what you're talking about. He had
Speaker 3: two sixty four last year, which you love. Lowered his
Speaker 3: strikeout rate at triple a, still pretty high at the majors.
Speaker 3: That's going to improve. Walk rate was good, a great
Speaker 3: ten percent barrel rate hard hit was elite at fifty
Speaker 3: two percent, which is bonkers, and his expected batting average
Speaker 3: supported his batting average. So all these fun things. He
Speaker 3: barrels the ball, he hits it hard, batting average is
Speaker 3: supportive of where he was, so you can grow on it.
Speaker 3: He's got tools for days. I said this last year.
Speaker 3: I think I said it here. I said it on
Speaker 3: a show over on CBS that if you want a
Speaker 3: player for the future to project that has freak likabilities
Speaker 3: like Elie de la Cruz, it's James Wood. James woodd
Speaker 3: be that type of player. And it's not even just
Speaker 3: meant to be like physical comps of like he's six
Speaker 3: foot seven or whatever.
Speaker 1: No, it's like this all the tools.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this dude.
Speaker 1: Doesn't be eye test.
Speaker 3: He's improved his back to ball skills exponentially. He could
Speaker 3: always run, but now you're looking at a guy that
Speaker 3: could go thirty thirty. So you got to this is
Speaker 3: where you have to start paying up for someone whose
Speaker 3: production doesn't quite justify the cost. He's that first representation
Speaker 3: of it. And I think this is you know where
Speaker 3: you maybe and here would be a good example of
Speaker 3: something you could do. You're like Joe, and you say
Speaker 3: I want Jose Ramirez a little bit higher over another,
Speaker 3: you know, like you want to do it over Carol
Speaker 3: or Jackson Curio. Take Ramirez in the first and then
Speaker 3: come back and get James Wood and you're getting some
Speaker 3: of that upside. Those two could be really great combinations.
Speaker 1: I agree. I think that's a great way to put
Speaker 1: it too. Uh, let's talk at Roster construction one on one, folks. Yeah,
Speaker 1: a little bit of upside, a little bit of floor there.
Speaker 1: You got the best of all worlds. Next here on
Speaker 1: our list twenty one through thirty. Francisco Lindora twenty one,
Speaker 1: Rafield Dever's a twenty two look to be moving positions there,
Speaker 1: Junior Cavanaro at twenty three, Jared Durant twenty four, White
Speaker 1: Langford cracking the top twenty five, Spencer Stryder, Austin Reiley,
Speaker 1: Garrett Crochet, a bunch of pitchers there, and then you
Speaker 1: have Katel Marte at twenty nine and Jackson Merrill at thirty.
Speaker 1: Junior Camanaro, guy I was very high on last year.
Speaker 1: I'm still very high on Camanaro. However, I'm just not
Speaker 1: sure if he's done enough yet to warrant the top
Speaker 1: twenty five, which is basically where he is. He's right
Speaker 1: in that twenty three range. What did you see out
Speaker 1: of him last year? I only hit under two fifty.
Speaker 1: The OBP was a great small sample forty three games,
Speaker 1: but still I would like to see a little bit
Speaker 1: more before we get quite to top twenty five stats
Speaker 1: for Cavanaro. I think it's too high. Why are you
Speaker 1: so aggressive on the Projectability's just because he missed so
Speaker 1: much time being hurt last year.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I don't don't think you can take
Speaker 3: it too too much out of like the rookie campaign,
Speaker 3: he's twenty one years old. He had a two almost
Speaker 3: it's called two to fifty batting average in the majors.
Speaker 3: Prior to that in the miners, he had shown the
Speaker 3: ability to lower that strikeout rate, which he also did
Speaker 3: in the majors twenty two percent in his you know
Speaker 3: first campaign of twenty twenty three, twenty one point five.
Speaker 3: Very good for a rookie, elite barrel, elite ish hard
Speaker 3: hit for a rookie at forty five percent, already put
Speaker 3: one up one sixteen on max EV. So I'm getting
Speaker 3: at is you got a guy that is not striking
Speaker 3: out a bunch has always had elite, elite contact skills.
Speaker 3: You're talking thirty plus homer projection.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 3: The offense around him maybe is a bit of a question.
Speaker 3: But this, this is that battle where they waited three
Speaker 3: year kind of moves a little bit because this is
Speaker 3: a twenty one year old, like he has time to
Speaker 3: work his projection of a player as long as it
Speaker 3: keeps moving in the right direction, is someone that's probably
Speaker 3: going to look like a Rafael Devers, if not better.
Speaker 3: So that's why you pay this price right now. And
Speaker 3: this is a battle of that win now versus playing
Speaker 3: for the future. But I think he's a happy medium
Speaker 3: because you're going to get full year production out of
Speaker 3: him this year, and I would expect the low side
Speaker 3: is like two fifty to twenty five homers. Twenty one
Speaker 3: years old, you're going to be sitting on him for
Speaker 3: a long time.
Speaker 1: Wyatt Langford last year had big xpectations. Now a terrible
Speaker 1: April in March rib barely terrible. I mean he hit
Speaker 1: two thirty eight, then May was only six games he missed.
Speaker 1: Time came back was incredible. In June eight ninety four,
Speaker 1: Ops hit three hundred, then May in August, I mean,
Speaker 1: excuse me, excuse me a July in August tailed off
Speaker 1: a little bit, only to be brilliant again in September
Speaker 1: where we hit three hundred again with a six ten
Speaker 1: slugging percentage of the nine ninety six ops, eight homers
Speaker 1: twenty RBI. That is a hell of a finish. Wyatt
Speaker 1: Langford could be one of these guys like if he
Speaker 1: could find that consistency, would be a top ten maybe
Speaker 1: next year. Do you see that jump or is it
Speaker 1: more of this growing pains and finding himself in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty five.
Speaker 3: There's a little part of me that isn't sure that
Speaker 3: there's like insane upside of Whyatt Langford he hit two
Speaker 3: fifty three, sixteen homers, nineteen stolen bases. Now bear with
Speaker 3: me just for half a second when when I say
Speaker 3: that is I'm not sure I would look at him
Speaker 3: and be like, oh, this is a guy that's going
Speaker 3: to hit thirty five homers, steal forty five bases and
Speaker 3: da da da. I think you might be like, he's
Speaker 3: going to become a better hitter. From the two fifty three,
Speaker 3: he had a two to fifty seven expected batting average,
Speaker 3: low strikeout rate, but he settled still as like a
Speaker 3: twenty five to twenty five guy. But the base dealing
Speaker 3: looks aggressive. The plate skills look kind of elite for
Speaker 3: a rookie again, almost under twenty percent, almost ten percent
Speaker 3: walk rate, really great overall hit skills, and just a
Speaker 3: couple of notes I had on him, he hit two
Speaker 3: forty plus against three different pitch types. Again this is
Speaker 3: a rookie. He had a thirty point plus against fastballs,
Speaker 3: so two thirty one jump of his expected batting average,
Speaker 3: so he hit two sixty five technically on the expected
Speaker 3: side he was expected to and almost a fifty point
Speaker 3: batting average boost he had against sliders, where he only
Speaker 3: hit two hundred but an expected two fifty. So what
Speaker 3: does that mean. That means a little bit more progression.
Speaker 3: Those balls are going to start flying. He also had
Speaker 3: a three plus expected home run total in Baseball Savant,
Speaker 3: so just seeing that he's got a little bit more
Speaker 3: home run upside, all of the nonsense of what I'm
Speaker 3: saying is is like this. It looks like a really
Speaker 3: really good hitter, someone that can be aggressive as far
Speaker 3: as his running goes, and I think I wouldn't be surprised.
Speaker 3: If he's a two eighty five twenty five to twenty
Speaker 3: five guy, there's a lot of upside for what the
Speaker 3: floor is gonna look like. I'm just not sure he's
Speaker 3: gonna be like Ellie or like Corporn Carol.
Speaker 1: All right, Garrett Crochet certainly a great season, not a
Speaker 1: full season from only one hundred and forty six things.
Speaker 1: Now he is going to be a Boston Red Sox.
Speaker 1: He's just twenty six. I gotta tell you, Welsh, he
Speaker 1: is one of my favorite values on this board here
Speaker 1: at the twenty eighth spot. Overall, I feel like this
Speaker 1: is where I'm about ready. If I'm gonna take a
Speaker 1: plunge with a pitcher, I'm gonna take it with a
Speaker 1: six to six guy who's two fifty and like just
Speaker 1: throws gas and now has found himself on a significantly
Speaker 1: better team with a different color pair of socks, where
Speaker 1: games are gonna matter now for Garrett Crochet. Anything else
Speaker 1: to add on this guy too? I mean, did you
Speaker 1: see I know it was on like one glorious season,
Speaker 1: but still I think it's a lot to like here
Speaker 1: with Crochet.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I actually love your assessment too. Of like, maybe
Speaker 3: I don't take school. Maybe I don't take Skeins. You
Speaker 3: come into like a third round in third crochet. Yeah,
Speaker 3: they get some really little.
Speaker 1: Old He's funny. He's younger than skoobl but he's older
Speaker 1: than Skens. But again, the size and the frame. I
Speaker 1: just look at him and I'm like, man, that's a hoss.
Speaker 1: That's what I'm looking at.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just want to agree. Three point five eight
Speaker 3: ERA two point five expected, so a full run lower
Speaker 3: when he was a White Sox elite thirty five point
Speaker 3: one percent K percentage, And I love this. Every pitch
Speaker 3: he threw had a thirty percent plus width and K percentage.
Speaker 3: Every pitch is elite. The only thing to worry about
Speaker 3: is maybe Boston Boston has some home some ballpark factors
Speaker 3: that can maybe negatively worked against him. Boston's overall the
Speaker 3: second ballpark factor best for hitters. The Socks were the
Speaker 3: twenty first, and for right handed hitters, Boston is number two,
Speaker 3: Chicago was thirteen. So what I'm saying is is there,
Speaker 3: you know, for right handed hitters against him, there's a
Speaker 3: little bit more of an advantage from a ballpark factor,
Speaker 3: but he's an elite strikeout option and he's got plenty
Speaker 3: of time to go, and he's already got that injury
Speaker 3: out of his way as well. So I love him
Speaker 3: as a dynas you buy.
Speaker 1: Next year thirty one through forty. Now this is the
Speaker 1: round where I want to trade out. I want to
Speaker 1: trade up. I want to trade back because this group,
Speaker 1: to me, is a lot of volatility. Jets Chism at
Speaker 1: thirty one, trade Turner at thirty two, Michael Harris at
Speaker 1: thirty three, Cole Reagan's at thirty four, then Jackson Holiday,
Speaker 1: Jason Dominguez, Logan Gilbert thirty seven, Dylan Cruz at thirty eight,
Speaker 1: Latch of Projectables with him in Washington and Wood we
Speaker 1: have O'Neil Cruz at thirty nine, and then rock excuse me,
Speaker 1: Roky Sazaki. He wasn't say Rocky Sazaki because that sounds fun.
Speaker 3: It's a great name, Rocky Sazaki.
Speaker 1: Come on, you're gonna eat lightning and crap thunder. But anyway,
Speaker 1: Roki Sazaki. We'll see where he lands at the end
Speaker 1: of January, hopefully in a good spot. But I want
Speaker 1: to sort of Michael Harris in this group because this
Speaker 1: is a guy I feel like I can get, you know,
Speaker 1: fifteen and fifteen other spots, and I'd like Michael Harris
Speaker 1: as a as a real player, as a fantasy player.
Speaker 1: I think he's one of the most overrated guys. I
Speaker 1: thought it last year. I didn't like the ADP at all.
Speaker 1: You know this, We had lots of discussions about it.
Speaker 1: I know there were moments last year in the second
Speaker 1: where it came to life. But he gets bounced all
Speaker 1: over the lineup. I don't know, man. Michael Harris, to me,
Speaker 1: is one of these guys is really tough to gauge.
Speaker 1: I would rather take a shot at with the upside
Speaker 1: of Dylan Cruzes at thirty eight than Michael Harris at
Speaker 1: thirty three.
Speaker 3: Joe, it's funny that you say that. You kind of
Speaker 3: got me thinking a little bit because I do. Look,
Speaker 3: I love Jason Dominguez, who is a couple spots lower
Speaker 3: you've already got. So we'll talk about the guy in
Speaker 3: a little bit, But there's already some other favorites for him.
Speaker 1: I would agree for the record too. Dimingez is another
Speaker 1: guy I'd rather have than Michael Harris.
Speaker 3: I love Dimingez runs aggressively well.
Speaker 1: I've seen him play in person a couple of times
Speaker 1: yere two in Somerset and he was He's terrific, I
Speaker 1: mean terrific game player.
Speaker 3: He's not the best like the vender. And he's got
Speaker 3: some quota offense, yeah yeah, but offensively he's got huge power.
Speaker 3: Stolen bases are there. I think he's going to hit better.
Speaker 3: Dylan Cruz kind of the same thing. I love that.
Speaker 3: The thing that holds you with Michael Harris. Bad first half,
Speaker 3: like kind of again last year, but second half he
Speaker 3: hit two eighty three eleven homers, but he did stop stealing,
Speaker 3: so it's kind of balanced out. What we've seen from
Speaker 3: Michael Harris is kind of like the Langford what we're
Speaker 3: talking about, where it's like the guy could be a
Speaker 3: two eighty hitter twenty plus, twenty plus, especially if he
Speaker 3: is higher in the lineup. That still doesn't happen. You
Speaker 3: do have me thinking I might make an adjustment because
Speaker 3: I think the upside for a guy like Domingaz is
Speaker 3: pretty higher than Michael Harris. Is just a better floor
Speaker 3: with here. Dylan Cruz might be the prime example.
Speaker 1: And look at Yankees. One other way to add more
Speaker 1: pieces to lineup around some more veterans to that helps
Speaker 1: the ballpark factor is a very good one too. For
Speaker 1: the Bronx. Jackson Holiday another guy too, certainly disappointing early
Speaker 1: on some signs of life in the second half there too,
Speaker 1: And it looks like you are pretty confident here recking
Speaker 1: with thirty five, that this is going to be a
Speaker 1: player you want to build a dynasty team around.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 3: I think the main thing I can throw at anybody
Speaker 3: is like I was massively, massively high on Jackson Holiday
Speaker 3: last year. I've obviously dinged him, not a crazy amount,
Speaker 3: but he is still twenty one years old. I still
Speaker 3: believe in the bat he had an eight percent barrel
Speaker 3: rate and a forty five percent hard hit rate. Those
Speaker 3: are two grit eight tools to build off of. He's
Speaker 3: got a lower his strikeout rate, and he has got
Speaker 3: to make better quality of contact, and I think that's
Speaker 3: going to happen. So this my suggestion for Jackson Holiday,
Speaker 3: get a better discount on him. Get a better discount
Speaker 3: than paying inside the top forty. I think you probably
Speaker 3: can for people that are going to look at redraft values.
Speaker 3: There isn't a lot of what he did last year
Speaker 3: to take with you, except there's still good quality of
Speaker 3: contact when he makes quality of contact or there are
Speaker 3: good bat to ball skills when he gets to it,
Speaker 3: and I think that's going to bounce back this year.
Speaker 3: And he's a good dynasty bibe. But try to get
Speaker 3: a better.
Speaker 1: Cost on him. Now, Sazaki is interesting. You have him
Speaker 1: ahead of Yamamoto pitches on the Dodgers. Is that just
Speaker 1: an age thing or is it all some size thing
Speaker 1: too because he's a bigger pitcher.
Speaker 3: Well, absolutely an age thing. Roki Sazaki has age in
Speaker 3: his favor. You know he is coming over and he's
Speaker 3: susceptible to the international signing rules because he's under twenty five. Yamamoto,
Speaker 3: I believe he's thirty years old. There are two. There's
Speaker 3: a couple conflicting things.
Speaker 1: You got.
Speaker 3: Baseball America is giving an eighty grade on his splitter.
Speaker 3: Lance Brasdowski did an amazing breakdown of what this splitter
Speaker 3: he throws. It's got, it's very unlike a lot.
Speaker 1: Just twenty six, just pointing twenty six?
Speaker 3: Did I say it was thirty? I think I'm making Yeah,
Speaker 3: that's a whole one.
Speaker 1: It's thirty one. Now I think going into this year.
Speaker 3: One hundred percent. But Roki Sazaki splitter compared to Yamamoto
Speaker 3: is something that might be a big differential. And again
Speaker 3: go look at Lance's video on it, where he kind
Speaker 3: of describes as splitter is almost kind of like a
Speaker 3: bullet splitter, where it has a different trajectory of a
Speaker 3: line of sight of what we're used to on the
Speaker 3: plane from a fastball to splitter differential. It's a it's
Speaker 3: a disgusting splitter. Guy's also thrown triple digits, but some
Speaker 3: of that thing has fallen off, so that there's a
Speaker 3: question mark can a team get back to this. Roki Sazaki,
Speaker 3: who threw for triple digits, had this big extension. Here's
Speaker 3: the other slight problem. Really seems like there might be
Speaker 3: some type of UCL or Tommy John thing in the
Speaker 3: near future. So, and I'm saying this because I think
Speaker 3: some people are gonna have Roky Szazaki in dynasty higher
Speaker 3: because based on age, based on potential, the strikeout potential,
Speaker 3: he might be seen as like, you know, a top
Speaker 3: five dynasty starting pitcher. I do think there's some worries
Speaker 3: this is another guy like Holiday. You might be open
Speaker 3: to even make let him fall a little bit, but
Speaker 3: the talent might surpass. He might not be in this
Speaker 3: same territory in two years of Logan, Gilbert and Yamamoto.
Speaker 1: I think it's so interesting. Is the next guy on
Speaker 1: the list here at forty one as we start the
Speaker 1: new board is Dylan Ceas makes every start every single year.
Speaker 1: He has been so durable, he has been so locked down,
Speaker 1: He's done nothing but get better in the last two
Speaker 1: years to their night and day. For me, forget three
Speaker 1: year window, I'll even take five year window. I want
Speaker 1: Dylan Cee over Sauzaki, and it's not close right now.
Speaker 1: So that is what's fascinating, and it's I think most
Speaker 1: people are prisoners of the moment, right it's the new thing.
Speaker 1: It's very exciting, get all the buzz about this. But
Speaker 1: meanwhile there's Dylan CEA's just getting the job done every
Speaker 1: year at thirty two starts, and that to me is
Speaker 1: far more impressive and far more investible long term than
Speaker 1: what Suzaki is at this juncture, having never seen him
Speaker 1: throw a pitch in the Major league.
Speaker 3: You know, and let me let me add to that,
Speaker 3: because do you remember what I said earlier in the
Speaker 3: show where I go. I don't think there's a lot
Speaker 3: of variants in the first round second round.
Speaker 1: No, maybe as you go, third round gets greater.
Speaker 3: Fourth round where we're You're not wrong. This is a
Speaker 3: territory where you do start paying a tiny bit more
Speaker 3: attention if you are a team that you're like, you
Speaker 3: know what, I'm taking Freddy Freeman higher than he's being ranked.
Speaker 3: I'm taking some of these older guys. I'm gonna take
Speaker 3: Zach Wheeler higher. If you're in a win now perspective,
Speaker 3: you should pay attention to a cease versus Suzaki. It
Speaker 3: might take Sazaki two years to get right. Dylan Cees
Speaker 3: his prime is right now. When you said five year window,
Speaker 3: I don't know if I want Dylan Ceaz when he's
Speaker 3: thirty five, thirty four to thirty five, But do I
Speaker 3: want him at twenty nine, thirty and thirty one in
Speaker 3: the three year window? You're not wrong about that, So
Speaker 3: paying attention dyl Sly.
Speaker 1: Twenty nine, I think I say take out, Yeah, he'll
Speaker 1: be in his you know, five years from now he's
Speaker 1: thirty three, Okay, like Sill of these guys were going
Speaker 1: strong at thirty five, thirty six, thirty seven nowadays.
Speaker 3: Like yeah, like Wheelers, these guys.
Speaker 1: Wheeler's a great example, but this guy's just throwing up,
Speaker 1: you know, thirty thirty thirty. He look thirty two, thirty two,
Speaker 1: thirty three, thirty three, last four years. I mean that's stunning.
Speaker 1: The best ability is availability these guys. Rokie's got some
Speaker 1: risk one hundred percent. He's got some fun to watch.
Speaker 1: My evaluation of him in the Black Book is really good.
Speaker 1: I like him as a picture, but there's definitely risk there.
Speaker 1: Where he lands has a lot to do with his development.
Speaker 1: So I'm keen to wait before I really do the
Speaker 1: full write up on him. Corey Seeger forty two. Corbyn
Speaker 1: Burns a forty three new landing spot. He's a guy
Speaker 1: who's a little older too. Same as Zach Wheeler at
Speaker 1: forty four even, and I'll get forty five. C J.
Speaker 1: Adams a forty six, George Kirby of forty seven, Yamamoto
Speaker 1: at forty eight, Albe's at forty nine, and then Riley
Speaker 1: Green at fifteen. Other guy who could jump up this list.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about Corbyn Burns here, a guy who's now
Speaker 1: in his thirties. Same as Wheeler here, So you have
Speaker 1: Burns ahead of Wheeler. I'm curious as to why.
Speaker 3: Well, there's a pretty big age gap between the two.
Speaker 3: I think it's three or four years. Yeah, so I
Speaker 3: mean in a three year wind of Wheelers getting into
Speaker 3: thirty seven thirty eight. I think some people could look
Speaker 3: at Burns last year and see like, oh, some things
Speaker 3: are starting to taper down, you know. Interestingly enough, he
Speaker 3: actually I did some velocity to his cutter, but that
Speaker 3: thing got hit up more where his other two offerings.
Speaker 3: I believe it was the slider, and I think the
Speaker 3: curveball had batting averages against. It's actually three pitches here, curveball,
Speaker 3: slider and changeup had a two hundred or lower batting
Speaker 3: average against. That's absurd. Those pitches got better. His cutter
Speaker 3: got hit up way more than it had in the
Speaker 3: prior year, but three or four pitches with a two
Speaker 3: hundred or lower batting average. I actually think there's some
Speaker 3: subtle of unluckiness with Corbyn Burns. I think he can
Speaker 3: bounce back. Plus you've got you know, the super fast
Speaker 3: offensive team ballpark might come into play. I still think
Speaker 3: the stuff is there for Corbyn Burns. He had a
Speaker 3: two nine two era, he had a you know, sub
Speaker 3: three four expected era barrels. He gave up a tiny
Speaker 3: bit more, but it was super low, hard hit contact
Speaker 3: with a super fast outfield. I think Corbyn Burns is
Speaker 3: lined up pretty well. I think he's going to bounce back.
Speaker 3: I think it felt like some of the inconsistencies is
Speaker 3: he was moving away from being elite. But I still
Speaker 3: think he is really elite. And I thought this before
Speaker 3: he signed with the Diamondbacks. Honestly, the Diamondbacks ballpark factor
Speaker 3: might be a little bit of a problem. But back
Speaker 3: to the Rokies Azaki thing. It sucks because we broke
Speaker 3: them into tens. So it feels like Roki's in this
Speaker 3: different tier. He's really not. He's in a tier of
Speaker 3: Dylan Cee's, Corbyn Burns, Zach Wheeler, Emanaga. They're all different
Speaker 3: variants of each other. You know, do I want Zach
Speaker 3: Wheeler probably the best picture on this list. He's a
Speaker 3: win now guy. You'd want to make that investment. Corbyn Burns,
Speaker 3: Emanaga they've got four or five year windows. Rokie's got
Speaker 3: a ten year window. It's it's starting to be your flavor.
Speaker 3: And I just am still very much on Corbyn Burns,
Speaker 3: but he's in that tier with Wheeler and with Emonaga.
Speaker 2: C J.
Speaker 1: Abrams. I want to talk about real quick too, because
Speaker 1: it's another guy too, turns twenty four. Obviously, there's power
Speaker 1: their speed. There's also some immaturity and some issues there
Speaker 1: to casinos casinos, but which we support. You know, go
Speaker 1: subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel.
Speaker 3: Right. Just not a game day, just maybe not a
Speaker 3: game day, a game day, just like a.
Speaker 1: Game And if you're gonna do show up and hit
Speaker 1: get three hits, don't stay till six in the morning,
Speaker 1: don't like get But if you do, go out there
Speaker 1: the next day and get three hits like those guys
Speaker 1: in the eighties, you know, smoking cigarettes in the in
Speaker 1: the dugout and god knows what else they were doing.
Speaker 1: I mean, look, just go out there and get your
Speaker 1: hits and then nobody cares. But with Abrams too, this
Speaker 1: is a guy that I fear next year could be
Speaker 1: top twenty on this list or outside the top one
Speaker 1: hundred on this list. That's how I feel about Abrams.
Speaker 1: Do you see him with that same risk or am
Speaker 1: I being a little hyperbolic?
Speaker 3: Nah, I got my worries with it. I'll say he
Speaker 3: actually outperformed what I thought he was going to be
Speaker 3: last year. I thought he was one of those guys.
Speaker 1: That was like, well we loved him two years ago. Collectively,
Speaker 1: if we were like go in and go in. Last
Speaker 1: year the price got really high. We were like, I
Speaker 1: have an abidity.
Speaker 3: For Abrams, Like and I know said this sport. I
Speaker 3: was at his major league debut Padres, No one's in
Speaker 3: the stadium, rookie league ball. He hits a homer in
Speaker 3: his like second at bat. I got it on video. No,
Speaker 3: it's just me and Abrams and the team. Like, I've
Speaker 3: watched this guy since the day he started as a professional,
Speaker 3: So I have that affinity for him. But where his
Speaker 3: skill set has started to go, I started to question, like,
Speaker 3: this guy just learned to get the ball in the
Speaker 3: freaking air because he doesn't hit it hard, he doesn't
Speaker 3: barrel super great, he doesn't have pure row power, and
Speaker 3: he just made enough of it. Well guess what. He
Speaker 3: upped his home run total from eighteen to twenty this year.
Speaker 3: Stole a little bit less, he hit the ball a
Speaker 3: bit harder, but his strikeouts went up. I just think
Speaker 3: it also the spants, like, you know, just below average
Speaker 3: kind of across the board. I think he gets away
Speaker 3: with some stuff, and I worry that his floor is
Speaker 3: like a twelve homer, twenty five stolen base guy, which
Speaker 3: is still pretty good. So I have him a bit
Speaker 3: lower maybe than some others. And then the immaturity, we
Speaker 3: kind of don't know where that's going to go, Like
Speaker 3: what's going to happen, Like is this going to keep
Speaker 3: tapering out and become an issue? I don't know. I
Speaker 3: just think there's some warning signs on Abrams to make
Speaker 3: a big super commitment, But I don't know. Maybe top fifty,
Speaker 3: I'm still I'm still putting my foot down on it
Speaker 3: all right.
Speaker 1: Outside of the top fifty one through one hundred, there's
Speaker 1: a few names that stick out.
Speaker 2: We've highlighted some of them.
Speaker 1: We'll talk about a few of them to I want
Speaker 1: to talk about Roman Anthony of the Boston Red Sox,
Speaker 1: a guy that I'm sure you know some people are
Speaker 1: still getting familiar with. So how would you justify the
Speaker 1: ranking here at fifty nine.
Speaker 3: Overall, Well, welcome to our I believe this is our
Speaker 3: first player that has not had a single Major League
Speaker 3: at bat. Well, Rookie Sazaki I would qualify technically because
Speaker 3: he hasn't had an inning, But this is the first
Speaker 3: bat that has not doesn't have a single major league
Speaker 3: at bat that is on a really high part of
Speaker 3: this list. What do I have him at fifty nine?
Speaker 3: I think is honest. I think some people are going
Speaker 3: to have him higher. Some people have him as the
Speaker 3: number one prospect in baseball. I don't. I've got him
Speaker 3: close in there, So he's going to be higher on
Speaker 3: another list he is. I believe it could be Pipeline
Speaker 3: or Baseball America have him as the favorite for AL
Speaker 3: Rookie of the Year, and it's a possibility even if
Speaker 3: he doesn't break camp. We've seen guys be able to do.
Speaker 3: I mean, Skeins didn't break camp with it. His skill
Speaker 3: set immense Again we use the words like back to
Speaker 3: ball skills. It's elite, big hard hit numbers. The guy
Speaker 3: can run, doesn't strike out, he's lowrid to strikeout rates.
Speaker 3: He kind of doesn't little bit of everything. Boston's gonna
Speaker 3: be a huge environment for him to hit in if
Speaker 3: he were to break camp. I would not be surprised
Speaker 3: if he ended up being a thirty twenty type of guy.
Speaker 3: So this is why he ranked so high. Skill sets
Speaker 3: are kind of through the roof. I still like Cruise
Speaker 3: and Jason Diminge is a bit more than Anthony for
Speaker 3: some other people, but he has a chance to break camp.
Speaker 3: There is a proximity factor into this. He has got
Speaker 3: to go inside the top seventy five of a dynasty draft,
Speaker 3: a new fresh start one, and frankly, he's probably gonna
Speaker 3: go a little bit higher than some others. I did
Speaker 3: think redraft he has the potential to maybe disappoint this year,
Speaker 3: so I'm not quite as excited. But he is very,
Speaker 3: very high, and most people probably just don't have mounts
Speaker 3: at the top fifty like I do.
Speaker 1: It's funny visually he looks like Michael Rappaport had a
Speaker 1: baby with Robert t.
Speaker 3: Niro and the picture you're talking about, you know, do
Speaker 3: your Yeah.
Speaker 1: That's my son.
Speaker 2: It's gonna play. It's gonna play very well for the
Speaker 2: Red side.
Speaker 3: I know exactly what picture.
Speaker 2: He does have that look about him.
Speaker 1: But y yeah, yep, very good marks at seventy six.
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna say right now, he's gonna blow past
Speaker 1: this rank.
Speaker 3: Yeah this year.
Speaker 2: Love the lineup. He is young enough.
Speaker 1: He's already shown you. I think he's a thirty five
Speaker 1: home run guy starting next year.
Speaker 2: I really do.
Speaker 1: And It's not me being exaggerating. It's certainly not me
Speaker 1: being a Mets fan saying it. That's you know, I'm
Speaker 1: self loathing more than any Met fan almost. But Viento's
Speaker 1: is a guy. I believed in him last year. We
Speaker 1: talked about on the show. We have talked about adding him,
Speaker 1: We talked about spring training, what he did, and you know,
Speaker 1: he showed you he was ready for the big stage
Speaker 1: last year in the playoffs. Love him. Can't get enough
Speaker 1: of Entos. There's three pitchers in a cluster too, eighty four,
Speaker 1: eighty five, eighty six, Uri Perez, Shane McClanahan, Sandy el Contra.
Speaker 1: Now you're not gonna believe this Welsh in my keeper league.
Speaker 1: I've got all three of these guys for a collective
Speaker 1: five dollars combined. Wow, As I drafted them last year
Speaker 1: and stashed them at the end of the draft when
Speaker 1: people weren't paying attention. So I got one for like
Speaker 1: two bucks and the others for a buck or something
Speaker 1: like that. And they have the escalators this year. So
Speaker 1: again you got al Contra, who was about his consistent
Speaker 1: a so Klann huge upside. Uri Perez certainly another guy
Speaker 1: too that looks like a big time upside guy. Unfortunately,
Speaker 1: you know, bitching all these guys are in Floridas.
Speaker 2: Don't like, we're hoping that Altata gets out of there soon.
Speaker 1: And now say mcclana had also changing location too. That's
Speaker 1: something we got to talk about too, because the Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay situation here, they're gonna be playing in the Yankee facility,
Speaker 1: the spring trading facility, and it is not the same
Speaker 1: pitching advantage that the old building was.
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, you're right, and there's a lot to unpack
Speaker 3: on all these guys. I would say, I think these
Speaker 3: are some of the best values for dynasty. Yuri probably
Speaker 3: doesn't have the best, like redraft first season return value.
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna be like midway through the year.
Speaker 3: McClanahan and al Contra, coming off of their injuries, look
Speaker 3: like they're going to be, you know, starting close to
Speaker 3: the I think Alcontra will McClanahan maybe a month or so.
Speaker 3: I think these are the best, These are the best values.
Speaker 2: Both of these.
Speaker 3: Guys ranked really high. McClanahan is my favorite, but had
Speaker 3: the worst production before he got hurt. There were some
Speaker 3: really bad declines which I didn't like, but I still
Speaker 3: would invest in. I think these should be targets for everybody,
Speaker 3: no matter what type of construction. Maybe not all of
Speaker 3: them because of the injuries, but you should go after
Speaker 3: one of them. Juri being the youngest, McClanahan, I think
Speaker 3: having the best tools, al Contra being the floor of
Speaker 3: all of those players, these should be some type of target.
Speaker 3: And I just want to mention on your Vento's thing.
Speaker 3: I might have Vento's too low. I do think he
Speaker 3: has a potential to blow past this. My worry still
Speaker 3: thirty percent strikeout rate, expect a batting average still under
Speaker 3: two fifty, but it's elite, elite hitting skills, fourteen percent barrelery,
Speaker 3: big hard hit. If he's a two fifty thirty home
Speaker 3: run guy, this is probably the relative range, maybe a
Speaker 3: little bit higher. If he becomes a two sixty five,
Speaker 3: two seventy hitter, sty then we're under selling him in
Speaker 3: no way.
Speaker 1: He doesn't drive in one hundred runs in that lineup,
Speaker 1: and then.
Speaker 3: He's pet Alonzo. Then he's just younger Pete.
Speaker 1: Just look at I mean, Soto hitting in front of judge,
Speaker 1: you know, and now you've got this young kid of
Speaker 1: Vento's and look we'll see what happens to Alonzo. Still
Speaker 1: this we don't have clarity, but I just think the
Speaker 1: intos is the truth. Man, I just do guys outside
Speaker 1: the top one hundred, The one that stands out to
Speaker 1: me is one thirty seven Lawrence. Butler had a terrific season,
Speaker 1: really came out of nowhere for a lot of people
Speaker 1: and carried a lot of teams through the summer. Just
Speaker 1: prolific with the power. And now he's going to be
Speaker 1: potentially in a better environment. Remember Oakland's not going to
Speaker 1: be playing in Oakland anymore. The Athletics are now in
Speaker 1: Sacramento for the next couple years, so we'll see how
Speaker 1: that ballpark plays. So maybe there's opportunity here for some
Speaker 1: even better numbers for him and guys like Rooker two.
Speaker 1: So that's the guy on my radar. I know two
Speaker 1: guys for you, Spencer Schwellenbach and Jordan Lawler one on
Speaker 1: one and one thirty six respectively, are also on your radar.
Speaker 3: Yeah, just so just a couple of notes. Lawrence, I
Speaker 3: don't disagree. I know for a fact there are some
Speaker 3: higher rankings of him in Dynasty. I think there's an
Speaker 3: element of I would like to see him do it
Speaker 3: again before I make him a top fifty overall prospect.
Speaker 3: But he did show elements of it. Elite hard hit,
Speaker 3: elite barrel love those two stats in connection with overall
Speaker 3: hits tools. With that expect a batting average solid. He
Speaker 3: lowered his strikeout rate. I think the ballpar factor for
Speaker 3: right handed hitters in this minor league park is a benefit,
Speaker 3: but there's a lot of elements of it that are
Speaker 3: similar that aren't big, So it's not like an entire
Speaker 3: minor league. It's not like playing here in Arizona in
Speaker 3: one of the spring training facilities. I believe it's right
Speaker 3: handed hitters have like a five foot differential in favor
Speaker 3: of them hitters, so it's a little bit in that spot.
Speaker 3: So I'm a little bit lower. I suppose Schwellenbach personally
Speaker 3: is one of my favorites. I might just be too
Speaker 3: low on him, which is crazy, but I have him
Speaker 3: at one oh one, so he just missed this list.
Speaker 3: I think again, from a dynasty, if I could piece
Speaker 3: together the perfect pitchers through top one hundred and twenty
Speaker 3: five picks, give me like Crochet in the third round,
Speaker 3: give me a McClanahan and the fourth or fifth, and
Speaker 3: then give me a Schwellenbach later. Those are good investments.
Speaker 1: I like a good late Sweller.
Speaker 3: Everybody likes a good swelling box. Swelling boches slighter.
Speaker 1: You can get one, it's the best. You sleep like
Speaker 1: a baby.
Speaker 3: Yeah, maybe don't get a swellingbock on like Monday Tuesday.
Speaker 3: But give me a Schwellenbach on the weekend.
Speaker 1: Yeah, on the weekend, on a week.
Speaker 3: In, Schwellenbach is the best. And your dynasty team, Schwellenbach
Speaker 3: is the best. So I really like his potential to
Speaker 3: put us some elite strikeout numbers. So Schwellenbach is one
Speaker 3: of my favorite. And I just threw Lawler out here
Speaker 3: because Lawler has the potential to really skyrocket if given
Speaker 3: the opportunity, but we don't know that that's going to happen.
Speaker 3: I personally think the Diamondbacks could end up playing around
Speaker 3: with the scenario where Lawler starts playing in the outfield,
Speaker 3: maybe similar to what Jackson Merrill did, because I don't
Speaker 3: know if they would commit to him playing over Heraldo Perdomo.
Speaker 3: But he just had a really really great run in
Speaker 3: the Dominican Winner League, starting to hit again. Homer's are
Speaker 3: going he has twenty twenty potential. He could exponentially be
Speaker 3: more valuable than Lawler or than Lawrence Butler, but he's
Speaker 3: going after so Jordan Lawler is a outside the top
Speaker 3: one hundred to pay attention to, and I would just
Speaker 3: throw out, there's immense values outside the top one hundred.
Speaker 3: This is a spot where I really like to start
Speaker 3: paying attention to older players that have fallen. I think
Speaker 3: Jacob deGrom is one of those. He's really tough. How
Speaker 3: long will he play? Chris I want to win now.
Speaker 3: I'm not afraid to take a kem and Arro, a
Speaker 3: James Wood, a Dylan Cruz, but when I do so, personally,
Speaker 3: I'm absolutely trying to find those values of the older
Speaker 3: players that fell not just be like, no, they're off
Speaker 3: my list, will never take them. You're going to find
Speaker 3: crazy values in a Dynasty draft outside the top one hundred,
Speaker 3: So make sure your eyes are locked in. And if
Speaker 3: you guys want, I got a one to fifty that's
Speaker 3: going to be available on Fantasy Pros and I'll do
Speaker 3: a little bit of a breakdown for it, and you
Speaker 3: can find even more Dynasty ranks. Follow me on Twitter
Speaker 3: and you'll find out where you can find all the
Speaker 3: rest of you like up to four hundred.
Speaker 1: There we have it, everybody. That's a good look at
Speaker 1: the Dynasty ranks. Make sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel.
Speaker 1: Drop your comments below with your rankings. Guys you like,
Speaker 1: Guys you don't. We love to hear from all of
Speaker 1: you and ring the bell to that goes things for notification.
Speaker 1: So you're with us all off season and all in
Speaker 1: season leading off, We'll be here every single day. Before
Speaker 1: you know what, we got a lot of content planned
Speaker 1: here for the channel. We are going to be your
Speaker 1: one stop destination for all things fantasy baseball. That'll do
Speaker 1: it for us, but the story of the game goes
Speaker 1: on for the Welsh.
Speaker 2: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids.
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